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Not good numbers for BoJo/CON ahead of the local elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    nico679 said:

    Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
    Some parts are but there are signs of hope and the immediately surrounding area has a lot to recommend it.
  • There’s an English couple three tables away from me. He has earrings that would fit around my thumbs. She has entirely tattooed thighs and keeps complaining about the cold (put your fucking thighs away then woman). They’re louder than the rest of the clientele put together. Earlier their sons were at the table. The older one, who looked about fourteen, kept loudly declaring “I wanna go and shitfaced”. They gave gave him cash to do just that. I hope they leave soon.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,151

    I'm gonna write a bot to analyse who raises Brexit first in each thread.


    Next winter, I'm gonna write it - who wants to be writing code in the spring or summer?
    The difficulty will be with the people who don't name it directly, but via a formulation like, "trashed our trading relationship with our largest market," or, "freed ourselves from the burden of European bureaucracy," rather than the horrendous portmanteau itself.
  • There’s an English couple three tables away from me. He has earrings that would fit around my thumbs. She has entirely tattooed thighs and keeps complaining about the cold (put your fucking thighs away then woman). They’re louder than the rest of the clientele put together. Earlier their sons were at the table. The older one, who looked about fourteen, kept loudly declaring “I wanna go and shitfaced”. They gave gave him cash to do just that. I hope they leave soon.

    Before anyone else says it; I bet they voted for brexit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,356
    edited April 2022

    There’s an English couple three tables away from me. He has earrings that would fit around my thumbs. She has entirely tattooed thighs and keeps complaining about the cold (put your fucking thighs away then woman). They’re louder than the rest of the clientele put together. Earlier their sons were at the table. The older one, who looked about fourteen, kept loudly declaring “I wanna go and shitfaced”. They gave gave him cash to do just that. I hope they leave soon.

    I am convinced tattoo removal business is going to gold mine in 10-15 years time.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    There’s an English couple three tables away from me. He has earrings that would fit around my thumbs. She has entirely tattooed thighs and keeps complaining about the cold (put your fucking thighs away then woman). They’re louder than the rest of the clientele put together. Earlier their sons were at the table. The older one, who looked about fourteen, kept loudly declaring “I wanna go and shitfaced”. They gave gave him cash to do just that. I hope they leave soon.

    Two generations of child centred education?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,356

    See. Five minutes in the South of France and you’re turning into Roger.
    How can we be sure this group doesn't contain Roger?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,660
    edited April 2022

    Before anyone else says it; I bet they voted for brexit.
    Or they didn’t vote.

    I sometimes feel we don’t give enough regard to those who couldn’t be bothered to vote in the referendum. Who were they? Which way would they have voted if they had been forced to make a choice?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    Leon said:

    Whereas you have ranted angrily about Brexit for the last six years
    In the absence of this 'who mentions Brexit first' bot I'm gonna write (next winter when it's too dark and miserable to do anything else), I can't refute your suggestion.

    Maybe Remainers do still rant about Brexit, because we're sad at the futility and damage of it all.

    But the question is: why to Leavers still rant about it? You won ffs!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579

    So keen she’d even date you?

    😳
    Looking back, I now realise she understood me better than I understood myself at the time

    She kept asking me to tie her up, but I was so young and naive I just thought “well we’re already having wild sex all over london, on Ecstasy, why would I want to do THAT?”

    Head::desk
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,855
    edited April 2022
    Pagan2 said:

    Pretty much no one wanted to move to the EU in the first place, I believe australia and america were both more popular than the EU and especially if you take out those not moving for work purposes. Pretty much the majority of those moving to the eu were retirees and John Thaw
    About 800 000 UK citizens living and working in the EU prior to Brexit plus far more on temporary work visits. Less than the other way but not a small number. A relative was a orchestra player whose employers were the orchestras of Europe. Brexit has been a career-ending event for her. A niche profession, but there are others.

    Eliminating our Freedom of Moivement to Europe doesn't give us any more freedom to move to Australia and America. It just means we are less free than before.
    Pagan2 said:

    Robbed the few that wanted the right to have the freedom to live and work of their freedom to move while saving the 98% of people that didnt care about it a lot of tax
    EU transfers are entirely consumed by additional UK spending without directly matching the EU expenditure lines, per the ONS. ie losing the direct costs of EU membership is at best fiscally neutral. There is no direct tax saving from dropping the EU membership fee. There is however a much larger revenue hit due to GDP falling short after Brexit. Bottom line the recent NI increases were made necessary by Brexit.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Average Ashkenazi Jewish IQ is 115. Fully one standard deviation above the “human average”



    https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137414816_13

    Meanwhile American Jews are at least twice as rich, on average, as non Jewish Americans


    “Much of the Jewish American community lead middle class lifestyles.[130] While the median household net worth of the typical American family is $99,500, among American Jews the figure is $443,000.[131][132] In addition, the median Jewish American income is estimated to be in the range of $97,000 to $98,000, nearly twice as high the American national median.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Jews

    Forget Africa, are you honestly claiming there is no link between these two facts?
    Re: income & wealth of Jewish Americans, one factor contributing to their above-national-average performance, is lower percentage of recent immigrants, indeed since WW1 and post-war US immigration quotas cut off flow of Jewish & other immigrants from eastern Europe.

    Certain NOT sole factor, but (my guess is) quite significant.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,300

    In the absence of this 'who mentions Brexit first' bot I'm gonna write (next winter when it's too dark and miserable to do anything else), I can't refute your suggestion.

    Maybe Remainers do still rant about Brexit, because we're sad at the futility and damage of it all.

    But the question is: why to Leavers still rant about it? You won ffs!
    Combination of:

    1 This isn't the fantasy Brexit that I had, therefore Brexit can't have happened yet, so who is to blame for that?

    2 I expected everyone to cheer me to the rafters for liberating the nation, like in 1945, so why aren't the ungrateful sods cheering?

    3 Some other stuff I haven't thought of.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,954

    I suppose they wanted to lump 3 councils together each into the new authorities even though Penrith was in the historical Cumberland.

    I can't seem to find details of the new boundary boundaries.

    Cumberland is a must win council for Starmer.
    A not very good map, but correct I think is here:



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-57923010#:~:text=An overhaul of local government,encompass Allerdale, Carlisle and Copeland.

    As it involves Cumbria and line drawing there is zero chance of making everyone happy.

    The idea of Penrith not being in Cumberland, and looking to Barrow rather than Carlisle as HQ is a bit odd.

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,186
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

    Worked in the record biz

    I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
    My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I am convinced tattoo removal business is going to gold mine in 10-15 years time.
    Massive business opportunity. What’s with all the 20s and 30s women who suddenly have arms full of totally random scribbling?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182

    Combination of:

    1 This isn't the fantasy Brexit that I had, therefore Brexit can't have happened yet, so who is to blame for that?

    2 I expected everyone to cheer me to the rafters for liberating the nation, like in 1945, so why aren't the ungrateful sods cheering?

    3 Some other stuff I haven't thought of.
    4 I haven’t had sex with a lady since 1974, and all those homosexual West Indians in London are to blame.

    Although I guess that’s a spin on (1).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,396
    edited April 2022

    Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

    https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585

    Macron deserves a vote of thanks! It might not have been caused by Brexit but the dystopian vision that is Stoke would have been vastly improved by greater EU integration and the population speaking with their feet. Would they live and work in Stoke if they could as easily work and live in Paris Venice Florence Amsterdam Barcelona Vienna Ibiza or Palma just a short train ride away? Wouldn't Stoke have to get it's act together if it wanted it's population to stay?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    Roger said:

    Macron deserves a vote of thanks! It might not have been caused by Brexit but the dystopian vision that is Stoke would have been vastly improved by greater EU integration and the population speaking with their feet. Would they live and work in stoke if you could as easily work and live in Paris Venice Florence Amsterdam Barcelona Vienna just a short train ride away? Wouldn't Stoke have to get it's act together if it wanted it's population to stay?
    Is this the geographic version of "let them eat cake"?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,281
    Roger said:

    Macron deserves a vote of thanks! It might not have been caused by Brexit but the dystopian vision that is Stoke would have been vastly improved by greater EU integration and the population speaking with their feet. Would they live and work in stoke if they could as easily work and live in Paris Venice Florence Amsterdam Barcelona Vienna Ibiza or Palma just a short train ride away? Wouldn't Stoke have to get it's act together if it wanted it's population to stay?
    Stoke-on-Trent isn't that bad.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Vet is not a great career choice if your daughter unless it is a vocation.

    PM if you want to chat about it
    Why not?

    They are not going to stop making animals in the short to medium term, and there's stacks of insurance around so you can pretty much literally charge £20k for triple bypass surgery on somebody's hamster

    And in 97%+ of cases it is a vocation thing anyway
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,350
    CatMan said:

    My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
    And yet weirdly it gets literally millions of tourists - or did. Whether they will go back now the council have shut all the museums is another question.

    Parts of Stoke are alright. The station is impressive, as is the university campus.

    But I must admit my favourite sight in Stoke is a big green sign that says 'Uttoxeter A50.'
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,080
    Why are Leavers so obsessed about the clusterfuck that is Brexit? Genuinely fascinating...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    edited April 2022
    ydoethur said:

    And yet weirdly it gets literally millions of tourists - or did. Whether they will go back now the council have shut all the museums is another question.

    Parts of Stoke are alright. The station is impressive, as is the university campus.

    But I must admit my favourite sight in Stoke is a big green sign that says 'Uttoxeter A50.'
    The council closing all the museums - which had the finest collection of ceramics in the country (better than the V&A) - tells us a lot of places like Stoke.

    Both the place itself, and how it is treated by the rest of the country.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,281
    CatMan said:

    My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
    Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,905
    algarkirk said:

    A not very good map, but correct I think is here:



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-57923010#:~:text=An overhaul of local government,encompass Allerdale, Carlisle and Copeland.

    As it involves Cumbria and line drawing there is zero chance of making everyone happy.

    The idea of Penrith not being in Cumberland, and looking to Barrow rather than Carlisle as HQ is a bit odd.

    At the risk of extending the moaning, I object to Furness, too.
    That is the peninsula.
    The exclave of Lancashire which was part of Cumbria has been called Lonsdale for centuries, very happily.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,300
    Aslan said:

    This has actually really annoyed me now I have seen the detail. Why the hell are phone researchers and gardeners getting skilled worker visas??
    Businesses have decided that they need people to do these jobs, and Brits are either doing other jobs, in education, or have decided to take early retirement? Look at the labour market stats; there is hardly anyone who wants to work and is capable of working who doesn't have a job (or is about to get one in pretty quick order).

    So either we import workers, or viable businesses close for lack of staff.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,396
    edited April 2022
    Watch Stanley Tucci in Italy. It's nearly as good as BlancheLivermore in Northern Spain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0bncl3n/stanley-tucci-searching-for-italy
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    edited April 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Stoke-on-Trent isn't that bad.
    It gave me Helen From Stoke, with her demands to be handcuffed

    I won’t hear a word against it

    She was the Potteries version of the woman from the famous Berryman stanzas


    Filling her compact & delicious body
    with chicken páprika, she glanced at me
    twice.
    Fainting with interest, I hungered back
    and only the fact of her husband & four other people
    kept me from springing on her

    or falling at her little feet and crying
    'You are the hottest one for years of night
    Henry's dazed eyes
    have enjoyed, Brilliance.' I advanced upon
    (despairing) my spumoni.—Sir Bones: is stuffed,
    de world, wif feeding girls.



    Except: there was no husband, and, reader, this feeding girl was Yes
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Stoke-on-Trent isn't that bad.
    Compared to what? The bubonic plague? I mean, there's worse things than let's say stale cheese and onion Pringles, but they are still not great.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,243
    HYUFD said:

    Switzerland and Ireland and Australia and the USA certainly can. All have higher average gdp per capita than the UK and lower average taxes
    Sure, those are real countries.

    But at the same time, it's important to normalise between countries with government provided health care, and where it is compulsory by not provided by taxes.

    Because your average Swiss worker is also paying health insurance.
  • CatMan said:

    My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
    My late brother lived in Stoke. The only good thing he got from the place was his rescue dog. It loved curry and chips.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,350
    Leon said:

    It gave me Helen From Stoke, with her demands to be handcuffed

    I won’t hear a word against it

    She was the Potteries version of the woman from the famous Berryman stanza


    Filling her compact & delicious body
    with chicken páprika, she glanced at me
    twice.
    Fainting with interest, I hungered back
    and only the fact of her husband & four other people
    kept me from springing on her

    or falling at her little feet and crying
    'You are the hottest one for years of night
    Henry's dazed eyes
    have enjoyed, Brilliance.' I advanced upon
    (despairing) my spumoni.—Sir Bones: is stuffed,
    de world, wif feeding girls.



    Except: there was no husband, and, reader, this feeding girl was Yes
    Did you compare her to a Sony Walkman?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,243
    Pagan2 said:

    I thought the first page was

    "Welcome to economics, the science of explaining why the predictions you made in the past did not come true."
    I know the former Chief Economist of Uber (he's an investor in my insurance business). If you don't think economics has real world relevence, then you are a fool.
  • Creamy rice with rabbit and vegetables (mostly mushrooms)

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,396
    Andy_JS said:

    Stoke-on-Trent isn't that bad.
    I refer you to the Stanley Tucci link up thread
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,684
    rcs1000 said:

    @MrEd

    UK corporate profits don't seem to be spiking: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/corporate-profits

    Indeed, if you log scaled it (as you should) they appear to have been on an ever decelerating path

    Isn't that because companies are offshoring their profits to lower tax locations and onshoring their losses?
  • Creamy rice with rabbit and vegetables (mostly mushrooms)

    It looks and tastes like chicken thigh. Tastes good though!
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,454
    Leon said:

    Oh god. Helen From Stoke. Does anyone else remember Helen From Stoke???

    I guess not. But I suddenly miss her

    Used to let me ***** and ********* and then we’d ******** *** ****** backstage at *******. On E

    *sobs quietly for long lost youth*

    And her Stoke accent was weirdly sexy. “I luv ya, I juz DO”

    Can someone translate this into English ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,130
    Sandpit said:

    Of course, there are certain professions (medicine, engineering, academia etc.) which absolutely require the degree. There’s also an awful lot of white collar jobs, including accounting, law, IT and software, that really don’t require the degree and can be entered at 18 with a pathway to future qualifications, without the £50k debt around your neck aged 21.

    The advice is to think carefully, rather than assume that stundying away from home for a three year degree aged 18 is automatically the way to go, given the finances now involved in the decision. It was a different calculation for our generation two or three decades ago.
    Just creating opportunities for degree carrying immigrants.

    After all, Nigerians are the most qualified of US immigrants, even more than the Chinese.
  • The best thing to come out of Stoke-on-Trent is the A500.

    The Middlesbrough of the West Midlands.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,281
    Let's remember that Labour lost all 3 seats in Stoke-on-Trent at the last election for the first time since 1931. Plus neighbouring Newcastle-under-Lyme.
  • Taz said:

    Can someone translate this into English ?
    Leon's blow up doll has a hole in it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,521
    Andy_JS said:

    Stoke-on-Trent isn't that bad.
    The train station looks OK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,350

    The best thing to come out of Stoke-on-Trent is the A500.

    The Middlesbrough of the West Midlands.

    A silly thing to say Mr Eagles.

    The A500 takes you to Crewe.

    The A50 takes you to Dovedale.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,281

    There’s an English couple three tables away from me. He has earrings that would fit around my thumbs. She has entirely tattooed thighs and keeps complaining about the cold (put your fucking thighs away then woman). They’re louder than the rest of the clientele put together. Earlier their sons were at the table. The older one, who looked about fourteen, kept loudly declaring “I wanna go and shitfaced”. They gave gave him cash to do just that. I hope they leave soon.

    I really hate English tourists who behave like this when abroad.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,454

    Leon's blow up doll has a hole in it.
    Can he upgrade to a fleshlight ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon's blow up doll has a hole in it.
    Is that not the plan? I'd have sent mine straight back if it didn't

    Two holes minimum axshlly
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,684
    murali_s said:

    Why are Leavers so obsessed about the clusterfuck that is Brexit? Genuinely fascinating...

    You see any leavers talking in this thread? Seems pretty much Stuart in Romford and Garden Walker (in America) enjoying a spot of mutual onanism about how rubbish and awful and horrendous Brexit is to me.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    edited April 2022

    You see any leavers talking in this thread? Seems pretty much Stuart in Romford and Garden Walker (in America) enjoying a spot of mutual onanism about how rubbish and awful and horrendous Brexit is to me.
    I checked back. Neither Stuart nor myself were the first to mention Brexit, and the bulk of the ranting seems to come from @Pagan2 is who is absolutely FURIOUS that some people regret the loss of FOM.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,130
    edited April 2022
    Roger said:

    Macron deserves a vote of thanks! It might not have been caused by Brexit but the dystopian vision that is Stoke would have been vastly improved by greater EU integration and the population speaking with their feet. Would they live and work in Stoke if they could as easily work and live in Paris Venice Florence Amsterdam Barcelona Vienna Ibiza or Palma just a short train ride away? Wouldn't Stoke have to get it's act together if it wanted it's population to stay?
    I have got a soft spot for Stoke. I know some folk in the hospital and also Uni there so go from time to time. I used to go there a lot as a student too, as friends at Keele Uni.

    I can see why others don't like it much. The key though for the Potters is whether Brexit has delivered them a better life, ot a prospect of one. I have my doubts that there will be any tangible benefits evident by the next GE.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,456

    Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
    Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    Omnium said:

    Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
    Do you really think the decline of the “North” (yes I know Stoke is in the Midlands) can be attributed to a “loss of pride”?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,765
    Omnium said:

    Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
    It's not me saying it's a government thing; it's BJ, Gove and the, er, government.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, Jews have the highest average verbal IQ in the world.

    East Asians have the highest average numerical IQ in the world.

    Those are just facts however much the left deny them
    No they aren't. They are highly contentious. You only have to read much of the debate on it because there are so many variables. Many poor countries score around 50. Nepal is 43. Do you really think the average intelligence of these people is actual a score between idiot and moron. Of course they aren't.

    Having had to take many of these tests in my career and having had to set them for potential rmployees I explained the methods I could use to up your score by 10 - 20 points. @rcs1000 then came up with a study showing you could train someone to increase their score by 20 points, and this is in well educated countries like the UK and USA.

    So even Leon's standard deviation example is nonsense as there are just so many variables. Genetically different people might have different IQs but that could be for all sorts of reasons.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,350
    edited April 2022
    Omnium said:

    Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
    Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

    Spending in the North East* - £314.11

    And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

    Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

    It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

    *Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Can anyone explain why commentators keep stating that Mariupol is about to fall? This has been going on for weeks. I mean it is quite possible it will fall in the next few hours. But it's also possible it won't fall for several more weeks if ever. Yet everyone seems sure (regrettably) that it is on the verge of falling. Perhaps they are running out of ammunition. But who knows? It's claimed there are still several thousands defenders in the biggest steel plant in Europe full of underground tunnels.

    Whilst the increased western support is encouraging there still seems to be a real shortage of aircraft which are supposed to be the basis of modern warfare. Aside from Putin daring to drop a nuke it is this that would seem to be the only thing potentially stopping Ukraine from winning the war.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,697
    IshmaelZ said:

    Why not?

    They are not going to stop making animals in the short to medium term, and there's stacks of insurance around so you can pretty much literally charge £20k for triple bypass surgery on somebody's hamster

    And in 97%+ of cases it is a vocation thing anyway
    Highest suicide rate among medical professionals (up there with dentists) for a start.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,130
    kjh said:

    No they aren't. They are highly contentious. You only have to read much of the debate on it because there are so many variables. Many poor countries score around 50. Nepal is 43. Do you really think the average intelligence of these people is actual a score between idiot and moron. Of course they aren't.

    Having had to take many of these tests in my career and having had to set them for potential rmployees I explained the methods I could use to up your score by 10 - 20 points. @rcs1000 then came up with a study showing you could train someone to increase there score by 20 points, and this is in well educated countries like the UK and USA.

    So even Leon's standard deviation example is nonsense as there are just so many variables. Genetically different people might have different IQs but that could be for all sorts of reasons.
    Its almost as if IQ is a crap and spurious measure...
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Because we don't have enough workers and the ratio of workers/rich pensioners is out of whack. That will be the case whether we are in or out of the EU, or have a Tory or even UKIP govt. Tory and Brexit voters were lied to by Tories and Leave politicians.

    Please blame them for lying, rather than the system, the metropolitan elite or the migrants.
    This is just the same old bullshit that has been debunked a hundred times.

    The level of immigration you would need to meaningfully alter the elderly dependency ratio is staggering. You would have to multiply immigration by about 10x and cause massive integration issues.

    As for "enough workers", we have plenty of workers for unskilled jobs like florists and telesales. The problem is the pay and conditions in those jobs are shit.

    As always, you "let them all in" types don't actually address the issue of why we need to import shopkeepers as skilled workers, so instead you do this sneering patronization.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    edited April 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Government spending on transport in London - £877.76

    Spending in the North East* - £314.11

    And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

    Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

    It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

    *Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
    Also worth mentioning that R&D spend in the UK is quite low.

    Private R&D spend tends to follow public R&D spend in terms of where it goes, and what spend there is in the UK has been highly concentrated in London and the usual suspects.

    The government has pledged to increase R&D spend overall (though not to peer economy levels) and to rebalance a bit (though not by much) toward the “North”.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,684
    edited April 2022
    Britbox has created the most remainery original series ever. It's called 'Murder in Provence'. But far from being about murder in an imagined ex-pat community, the characters are all meant to be French, speaking in French, but they're actually English, speaking in English. The script is moderately high brow, and the actors are well known in some cases, but the lines are all delivered in this oddly monotonous way, that indeed sounds like a very middle class English Waitrose-esque dinner table conversation. It doesn't work as drama at all, but it's the essence of remainerism, because it feels like a certain type of English person living a brittle extended fantasy of being French - not just living *like* them, but inhabiting their actual lives, Buffalo Bill style.
    https://youtu.be/-5uB2LBE8Qw
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,350
    edited April 2022

    Also worth mentioning that R&D spend in the UK is quite low.

    Private R&D spend tends to follow public R&D spend in terms of where it goes, and what spend there is in the UK has been highly concentrated in London and the usual suspects.

    The government has pledged to increase R&D spend overall (though not to peer economy levels) and to rebalance a bit (though not by much) toward the “North”.
    Although of course one of the sites for vaccine manufacture is Keele University, between Stoke and Newcastle under Lyme.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,855

    Can anyone explain why commentators keep stating that Mariupol is about to fall? This has been going on for weeks. I mean it is quite possible it will fall in the next few hours. But it's also possible it won't fall for several more weeks if ever. Yet everyone seems sure (regrettably) that it is on the verge of falling. Perhaps they are running out of ammunition. But who knows? It's claimed there are still several thousands defenders in the biggest steel plant in Europe full of underground tunnels.

    Whilst the increased western support is encouraging there still seems to be a real shortage of aircraft which are supposed to be the basis of modern warfare. Aside from Putin daring to drop a nuke it is this that would seem to be the only thing potentially stopping Ukraine from winning the war.

    The explanation that makes most sense to me is that the defenders of Mariupol are holding out for as long as possible to divert Russian assets from attacking the rest of Ukraine. They are true heroes in that case.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,697
    Taz said:

    Can someone translate this into English ?
    Used to let me wine and dine her and then we’d purchase VIP tickets backstage at Arsenal.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182

    Can anyone explain why commentators keep stating that Mariupol is about to fall? This has been going on for weeks. I mean it is quite possible it will fall in the next few hours. But it's also possible it won't fall for several more weeks if ever. Yet everyone seems sure (regrettably) that it is on the verge of falling. Perhaps they are running out of ammunition. But who knows? It's claimed there are still several thousands defenders in the biggest steel plant in Europe full of underground tunnels.

    Whilst the increased western support is encouraging there still seems to be a real shortage of aircraft which are supposed to be the basis of modern warfare. Aside from Putin daring to drop a nuke it is this that would seem to be the only thing potentially stopping Ukraine from winning the war.

    If you look at the maps, the area of Mariupol still held by Ukrainian defenders has got smaller and smaller.

    People expected Mariupol to fall about two weeks ago, but it does now seem that it’s all over. Defence is now down to a single (but large) steel factory complex.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,684
    Taz said:

    Can someone translate this into English ?
    Can I make a request for nobody to translate it into English please?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Foxy said:

    Its almost as if IQ is a crap and spurious measure...
    This is just unscientific bullshit. IQ is THE most reliable metric in the whole of modern psychology. If it doesn't meet your scientific standards than you can throw out the entire field of study as worthless.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,300

    Do you really think the decline of the “North” (yes I know Stoke is in the Midlands) can be attributed to a “loss of pride”?
    There's a chunk of that, I reckon. Places that were somewhere, that were damn good at what they did, but they lose their purpose. Heck, I grew up in a place a bit like that in a different part of the country. Partly, the money that was coming stops, and that shows. But also, there's the emotional kick, the difficulty of working out what the place is for next. And in some (maybe many) cases, the answer is "not much", or "something a lot less profitable than before".

    It needn't last forever, but it's painful while it lasts. And civic pride (alongside investment in infrastructure and retraining) is part of the mix of getting over the gap.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    edited April 2022

    Do you really think the decline of the “North” (yes I know Stoke is in the Midlands) can be attributed to a “loss of pride”?
    Yes, you can, to an extent

    There are plenty of Stokes across the world - ex-industrial areas. Britain has a lot because we were the first to industrialise, and we did it when it was REALLY messy, and we are a small but densely populated country (and also we lost confidence in our urbanism post 1945, a separate, weird phenomenon)

    There are worse Stokes in America - Detroit, say. There are better Stokes in East Germany - where German diligence has preserved some cleanliness and dignity, but the towns are still depopulating and maybe doomed

    And pride - self esteem - seems crucial. Once people conclude "this place is a shit-hole, I have to leave" it is hard to reverse this self-fulfilling perception.

    Some British cities have done it. The major example is, of course, London. A seedy post-Imperial city in apparently endless decline in 1980 was arguably the capital of the world by 2010. Quite something.

    It has lost momentum of late but it still has a swagger, matched by few cities in the world. Someone who came here now who was last here in, say, February 1981 would be utterly astonished

    So pride can be restored. This is good. But how do you do it for smaller towns and cities?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    Aslan said:

    This is just the same old bullshit that has been debunked a hundred times.

    The level of immigration you would need to meaningfully alter the elderly dependency ratio is staggering. You would have to multiply immigration by about 10x and cause massive integration issues.

    As for "enough workers", we have plenty of workers for unskilled jobs like florists and telesales. The problem is the pay and conditions in those jobs are shit.

    As always, you "let them all in" types don't actually address the issue of why we need to import shopkeepers as skilled workers, so instead you do this sneering patronization.
    Perhaps you could have a go at answering the question in your last paragraph instead of having a shit-fit about it.

    Why indeed do we need to import flower-arrangers, which was another skilled profession I saw on the list.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487
    Roger said:

    Watch Stanley Tucci in Italy. It's nearly as good as BlancheLivermore in Northern Spain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0bncl3n/stanley-tucci-searching-for-italy

    But not quite as good though.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Russell Warne has spent many hours scrutinising undergraduate psychology textbooks. As a professor of psychology at Utah Valley University, he wasn’t looking for insight, but for mistakes – and he found plenty. Some of the worst concerned IQ tests. “The most common inaccuracy I found, by far, was the claim that intelligence tests are biased against certain groups,” he says. Yet intelligence researchers are at pains to ensure that IQ tests are fair and not culturally biased. “Another, very common one was the idea that intelligence is difficult to measure.”

    The truth about intelligence: A guide for the confusedOur thinking on human intellect is clouded with misinformation. But the latest science of intelligence is surprisingly enlightening

    No wonder IQ tests are often considered controversial and flaky. But that simply isn’t the case. “Despite the critiques, the intelligence test is one of the most reliable and solid behavioural tests ever invented,” says Rex Jung at the University of New Mexico.

    more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931870-400-the-truth-about-intelligence-do-iq-tests-really-work/#ixzz7QqFLRQMJ
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,684

    I checked back. Neither Stuart nor myself were the first to mention Brexit, and the bulk of the ranting seems to come from @Pagan2 is who is absolutely FURIOUS that some people regret the loss of FOM.
    The fact that you had to check back hardly convinces me that my initial impression was inaccurate.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Roger said:

    Macron deserves a vote of thanks! It might not have been caused by Brexit but the dystopian vision that is Stoke would have been vastly improved by greater EU integration and the population speaking with their feet. Would they live and work in Stoke if they could as easily work and live in Paris Venice Florence Amsterdam Barcelona Vienna Ibiza or Palma just a short train ride away? Wouldn't Stoke have to get it's act together if it wanted it's population to stay?
    This has been done to death over the years but perhaps worth pointing out that people in places like Stoke on Trent can alternatively just move to London or Manchester, they aren't trapped in Stoke on Trent because the UK has left the EU. I too deeply regret the loss of the freedom to live and work anywhere in Europe but in reality it is only a small amount of people who are bothered about this.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,186
    edited April 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
    Hey, I'm not personally dissing Stoke! I mean I grew up in Croydon FFS...

    Plus he mostly a Tory voter (although I seriously doubt he would vote for Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,456
    ydoethur said:

    Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

    Spending in the North East* - £314.11

    And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

    Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

    It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

    *Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
    London is rather different though, and particularly for transport spending. Building an underground railway in Stoke would seem to be an unlikely winner. (One day though)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,396
    Foxy said:

    I have got a soft spot for Stoke. I know some folk in the hospital and also Uni there so go from time to time. I used to go there a lot as a student too, as friends at Keele Uni.

    I can see why others don't like it much. The key though for the Potters is whether Brexit has delivered them a better life, ot a prospect of one. I have my doubts that there will be any tangible benefits evident by the next GE.
    Me too. I had a lovely friend from Stoke. She was an account exec and very funny. She deflated the pretentions of the people we were both working for like no one else I knew. She used her accent like a weapon. But she had found her way to London
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,214
    Aslan said:

    This is just the same old bullshit that has been debunked a hundred times.

    The level of immigration you would need to meaningfully alter the elderly dependency ratio is staggering. You would have to multiply immigration by about 10x and cause massive integration issues.

    As for "enough workers", we have plenty of workers for unskilled jobs like florists and telesales. The problem is the pay and conditions in those jobs are shit.

    As always, you "let them all in" types don't actually address the issue of why we need to import shopkeepers as skilled workers, so instead you do this sneering patronization.
    It is not me doing me it, I am not in charge, nor are those I voted for. It is Tory leave politicians doing it. Moan to them about it, not us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,130
    Aslan said:

    This is just unscientific bullshit. IQ is THE most reliable metric in the whole of modern psychology. If it doesn't meet your scientific standards than you can throw out the entire field of study as worthless.
    If the cap fits!

    IQ may well be a valuable metric, but it seems that we cannot measure it accurately, and certainly not across cultures and groups. It may have some validity comparing individuals within a group, but it cannot be extrapolated.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,350
    Omnium said:

    London is rather different though, and particularly for transport spending. Building an underground railway in Stoke would seem to be an unlikely winner. (One day though)
    So you concede it's not treated the same way?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,697
    ydoethur said:

    Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

    Spending in the North East* - £314.11

    And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

    Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

    It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

    *Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
    The cost of buying & demolishing property is higher in Camden than in the North East though which will affect the costs for the same output
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487
    Leon said:

    Whereas you have ranted angrily about Brexit for the last six years
    Lol, pot and kettle. And you won.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    It is not me doing me it, I am not in charge, nor are those I voted for. It is Tory leave politicians doing it. Moan to them about it, not us.
    Ok, I will remember to call you out if you criticize politicians on a political forum.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    The cost of buying & demolishing property is higher in Camden than in the North East though which will affect the costs for the same output
    The spending showed a similar discrepancy years back before Crossrail and HS2.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,456

    Do you really think the decline of the “North” (yes I know Stoke is in the Midlands) can be attributed to a “loss of pride”?
    I don't know. Perhaps. There's something that happens to regons which isn't about state funding, isn't about transport, and probably isn't about eductation.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Foxy said:

    If the cap fits!

    IQ may well be a valuable metric, but it seems that we cannot measure it accurately, and certainly not across cultures and groups. It may have some validity comparing individuals within a group, but it cannot be extrapolated.
    It can very measured accurately. It is highly repeatable and can also be reliably used across cultures and groups. It also shows high correlations between different components of IQ, such as reasoning, spatial ability, memory etc, demonstrating that it is measuring something real.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,684
    Leon said:

    Yes, you can, to an extent

    There are plenty of Stokes across the world - ex-industrial areas. Britain has a lot because we were the first to industrialise, and we did it when it was REALLY messy, and we are a small but densely populated country (and also we lost confidence in our urbanism post 1945, a separate, weird phenomenon)

    There are worse Stokes in America - Detroit, say. There are better Stokes in East Germany - where German diligence has preserved some cleanliness and dignity, but the towns are still depopulating and maybe doomed

    And pride - self esteem - seems crucial. Once people conclude "this place is a shit-hole, I have to leave" it is hard to reverse this self-fulfilling perception.

    Some British cities have done it. The major example is, of course, London. A seedy post-Imperial city in apparently endless decline in 1980 was arguably the capital of the world by 2010. Quite something.

    It has lost momentum of late but it still has a swagger, matched by few cities in the world. Someone who came here now who was last here in, say, February 1981 would be utterly astonished

    So pride can be restored. This is good. But how do you do it for smaller towns and cities?
    Unless you expect 'pride' to motivate people to purchase ladders and tins of Dulux and illegally redecorate the frontages of buildings that are owned by others, then pride alone won't do it. Commercial landlords being taxed for having empty, seedy, run-down high street properties would do it. Tax them until the pips squeak. Tax them until they are forced to sell, or forced to rent, well below their current grossly inflated expectations.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Perhaps you could have a go at answering the question in your last paragraph instead of having a shit-fit about it.

    Why indeed do we need to import flower-arrangers, which was another skilled profession I saw on the list.
    We don't and the government should get criticism for it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    ydoethur said:

    So you concede it's not treated the same way?
    I suppose one answer to this would be to simply subsidise public transport outside of London. Instead of spending money on building a northern Crossrail, spend the equivalent on subsidised bus travel, for example.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,697
    Carnyx said:

    The spending showed a similar discrepancy years back before Crossrail and HS2.
    Sigh.

    Camden was an example picked to wind up @Leon

    Any project requiring purchase of land or property (or compensating neighbours) will cost more in London
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    kjh said:

    No they aren't. They are highly contentious. You only have to read much of the debate on it because there are so many variables. Many poor countries score around 50. Nepal is 43. Do you really think the average intelligence of these people is actual a score between idiot and moron. Of course they aren't.

    Having had to take many of these tests in my career and having had to set them for potential rmployees I explained the methods I could use to up your score by 10 - 20 points. @rcs1000 then came up with a study showing you could train someone to increase their score by 20 points, and this is in well educated countries like the UK and USA.

    So even Leon's standard deviation example is nonsense as there are just so many variables. Genetically different people might have different IQs but that could be for all sorts of reasons.
    This is just unscientific shite

    IQ tests measure something important, which allows people to succeed in a capitalist society, if it upsets you, don't call it "intelligence"

    Jews are smarter ON AVERAGE than non-Jews. IQ tests detect that. As do Nobel Prizes:

    "At least 210 Jews and people of half- or three-quarters-Jewish ancestry have been awarded the Nobel Prize, accounting for 22% of all individual recipients worldwide between 1901 and 2021,"

    Read that again, between a fifth and a quarter of all Nobel Prizes have gone to people of notably Jewish ancestry, yet Jews constitute perhaps 0.2-0.3% of the global population

    What is the point in denying this obvious stuff? Honestly, it makes the commenter sound wilfully retarded. I understand why a politician in a public forum may need to steer clear of these contentious issues, but this is a small political betting website. FFS

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,684
    Aslan said:

    We don't and the government should get criticism for it.
    And get booted out for it - we are able to sack our Government in a way that we couldn't sack the four freedoms (obviously until we did, yadayadyada).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182

    There's a chunk of that, I reckon. Places that were somewhere, that were damn good at what they did, but they lose their purpose. Heck, I grew up in a place a bit like that in a different part of the country. Partly, the money that was coming stops, and that shows. But also, there's the emotional kick, the difficulty of working out what the place is for next. And in some (maybe many) cases, the answer is "not much", or "something a lot less profitable than before".

    It needn't last forever, but it's painful while it lasts. And civic pride (alongside investment in infrastructure and retraining) is part of the mix of getting over the gap.
    Yes, but the loss of pride follows the economic decline, not so much the other way round.

    As Leon goes on to relate, Britain has an awful lot of these places as a result of industrialising early and densely.

    I could go on, but I feel I’ve written a lot about this before. The only thing that matters is how to fix it.

    Essentially the answers are:

    1. Autonomy
    2. Infrastructure
    3. Skills

    The first seems to be anathema to British tradition, and 2 and 3 require money - lots of it and over a long term, too.

    It’s possible. East Germany is the leading example. Even there, the places have suffered a lot of depopulation, but at least those that are left are now wealthier than much of the UK.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    Omnium said:

    I don't know. Perhaps. There's something that happens to regons which isn't about state funding, isn't about transport, and probably isn't about eductation.
    See my post. It’s precisely about those things, plus autonomy.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,456
    ydoethur said:

    So you concede it's not treated the same way?
    Oh yes. Absolutely. London is treated as an entirely different beast to anywhere else in the UK. Mostly the differences are around transport, and the contrast between driving to work or taking public transport is huge. I've no idea what percentage of the UK state revenues come from London, but it'll be a big number. Every other region in the UK benefits.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,606
    Aslan said:

    This is just unscientific bullshit. IQ is THE most reliable metric in the whole of modern psychology. If it doesn't meet your scientific standards than you can throw out the entire field of study as worthless.
    Bollocks. (That's my professional opinion having a PhD in psychology and a chair at a Russell Group university.)
This discussion has been closed.