Starmer’s the one with most at stake in the May 5th elections – politicalbetting.com

StillWaters said:

Applicant said:

StillWaters said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

.

SouthamObserver said:

turbotubbs said:

Jonathan said:

Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow

What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.

But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?

Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.

And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".

People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.

Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.

Well, social media has grown.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.

Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.

And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.

Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...

I mean, no.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.

There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.

If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.

Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.

*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.

The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...

The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.

And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...

!!!

You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.

At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.

And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.

You want spending controls on elections? Fine by me.
I'd also be happy if the Democrats, Republicans, AND Facebook didn't exist.

But there's not some conspiracy against your guy. It's just that a lot of people think he's an arsehole. And, well, he proved them right.

Well, Trump isn't "my guy", except in that I don't have an irrational hatred for him. Sure, he's an arsehole. But if the Dems don't pull their fingers out, he could win again.

Thank you for that image. Fingers and arsehole in the same post…

YKIOK.

Trump and Pelosi? Yeuuch!

Rule 34. Deepfake.

Carnyx said:

MattW said:

FPT?

Cyclefree said:

Off topic.

https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1512410320605749249?s=21&t=bP5fav9Fi8v7s4961VRwzg

I am available at an enormous fee to design the gardens of the Sunak's many homes.

Very nice thread about the border and the lemons

Agreed. I did wonder if any sheep lean over the fence at the back for a nibble.

If it's lemons it might only happen once.

(But I am not a sheep expert.)

Heathener said:

Gardenwalker said:

I’d be surprised if the French result is tighter than 55/45 to Macron.

Anti-Le Pen voters have high motivation to turn out in the second round. Anti-Macron voters do not.

Yep I reckon 60:40 or better for Macron.

How much money do you want to back that with?

JohnO said:

So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

So you are under serious attack from the Lib Dems according to your local conservative mp?

https://www.libdemvoice.org/dominic-raab-blue-wall-under-serious-attack-from-the-lib-dems-70309.html

Leon said:

lol


France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

Presidential run-off election

Macron (EC-RE): 52%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

Macron (EC-RE): 59%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
...

+/- vs. 4 - 7 April

Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
Sample size: 3,016

YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.

MoonRabbit said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Trump must never win another election.

Sadly it’s inevitable and unstoppable. the insane fuel on the economic fire that marked the first year of the Biden administration has guaranteed recession in the last year of the term. Those rustbelt/brexit states dems can’t win without them are going to hammer Biden’s party regardless who the two nominees are.

I'm not convinced Trump will be the GOP candidate, despite what the US pundits say.

Scott_xP said:

Having said lots of unhelpful things about Boris Johnson pre-Ukraine, Douglas Ross is now saying unhelpful things about Rishi Sunak
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20056000.douglas-ross-says-chancellor-rishi-sunak-come-clean-wifes-tax-affairs/

Seems only fair, considering the unhelpful things that UK Tories say about Douglas Ross.

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

lol


France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

Presidential run-off election

Macron (EC-RE): 52%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

Macron (EC-RE): 59%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
...

+/- vs. 4 - 7 April

Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
Sample size: 3,016

YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.

Given Le Pen hasn't really seemed to do anything impressive in the last few days I can only guess it's a bit of an anti-Macron surge in the country. Poor timing, and given he should be benefitting from a wartime bounce it's not looking good.

It does hopefully reduce the chances of a complacent electorate not turning up to the second round and letting Le Pen in.

Macron is so far ahead in round 1 that his supporters would do well to cast a tactical vote for Melenchon.

MattW said:

FPT?

Cyclefree said:

Off topic.

https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1512410320605749249?s=21&t=bP5fav9Fi8v7s4961VRwzg

I am available at an enormous fee to design the gardens of the Sunak's many homes.

Very nice thread about the border and the lemons

@Cyclefree would you want paid in Sterling or rupees?

Rishi is the archetypal Citizen of Nowhere.

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

MattW said:

MoonRabbit said:

Can you catch covid from farts?

Been there; done that.

TL:DR - the other person wearing pants/panties helps you not catch it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7716952/

A recent study has also suggested post-flush toilet plume to be a potential route of transmission through ‘aerosolized feces’. Another aspect of probable transmission could be through flatulence by infected patients, although no such published data has been found. But, according to several existing investigations, farts do have the tendency to carry micro-particles which have the capacity to spread bacteria (55). However, additional research is still warranted to estimate the intensity of such infections; presence of undergarments/ clothing would however, lower the risk of transmission through this passage. The same was claimed by the Chinese Centres of Disease Control and Prevention that pants do act as a hindrance in the transmission of disease via flatulence that contains the SARS-CoV-2 virus (56).

Flipping eck. I had £25 on no. I was about to post some people are thick and ask for my money, but it looks like I have lost.

You can catch covid from farts 🤭 But bum masks help to some degree.

They need to stick naked mice farting on each other and bum pant mice farting on each other in bowl for more info.

I read your post about your father's thoughts on Rishi. A man grounded in the Nothern heartlands who thought Rishis budget would prove to be a masterstroke and the Tories were now the serious party on their way up....

My reputation as the worst tipster on here was hard earned but I have to admit you're giving me a good run for my money

Where your post was wrong, in many ways the budget was smart not to use all the ammo now in populist media loving splurge. What you are playing on is how you say something to applause when your stock is high, politicians same message not listened to when stock is low. But if someone brings out a decent forward looking budget at a difficult time, next month outed as peadophile, it doesn’t change how the budget should be understood and received, should it? We can be more gown up in our analysis on this blog than that Roger.

Also wrong, and a bit rude, in your overdoing it as Northern Heartlands. My Dad has been a moderate remain voting Tory in same place in Yorkshire since birth. It’s a Tory constituency. Truth is his consistent views no longer majority in his local party let alone the whole North, nor the whole North Labour before Boris came along.

Plenty of poor judgement in your post Roger you need to defend. You should be grown up enough to concede at least some of this.

What’s going on in your avatar? Is it date rape?

The budget could only be described as smart if it had been ghosted by Rachel Reeves. I don't know how long you've been a Lib Dem but I'd keep it under your hat if I were you or people might mistake you for a fifth columnist

You really know how to raise the stakes in a social media flame war Roger. 😆 I’ve been called a bot lots of times, and Farooq claimed only last week I’m not real just a figment of Leon’s washed up Id. 🤢But in one day you have called me a fifth column and suggested I am nearly as bad a tipster as you. Key facts speak for themselves.
The only things I have ever voted is Libdem and count Binface.
All my family and my girlfriend are solid conservatives.
As I told Farooq, the Lib Dems have my vote going forward, especially with Boris in charge of Tory’s. But as I also told Farooq, not every Libdem breaks to labour in a forced Tory or Labour choice. If given that choice today, I would say don’t know. Fortunately though I can carry on voting Libdem not have to make that choice. If Tory’s get taken over by proper conservatives once again, in a forced choice I would say Conservative, because atheist anti monarchy anti nuclear deterrent anti NATO socialist Labour is student politics, and they are controlled by lefty union baron money, so are not for me.

Now as for tipping. I called Shropshire North right and made money, despite having to wear a tin hat on here two months from the vote for placing that bet. On the night I redecorated the lounge with 🤮 over celebrating the win. After Christmas (thanks to my Dad) I tipped the attack to remove big dog, that nearly worked, and thanks to my Dad explained it was not going to happen just when everyone seemed convinced themselves it would, and TSE gave me a ban based on that. I am on Tugenhart and Harper at long odds for next Tory leader. I explained weeks ago why Macron has already lost (he sealed his own fate in 2014). That’s a key point of all my tips, I give analysis as to why I think it. Even with the horses I share analysis why. Does six wins from 16 Cheltenham tips make me sites worst tipster? In one Saturday February I tipped 3 wins from 4 at very long odds and made myself a fair bit of spending money, to share is to care so I am pleased I shared them here. In the morning I will not only tip the Grand National winner but the horse that finishes second.

Why do you regard me as your enemy Roger? What is wrong with your judgement!

Fairliered said:

Scott_xP said:

Having said lots of unhelpful things about Boris Johnson pre-Ukraine, Douglas Ross is now saying unhelpful things about Rishi Sunak
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20056000.douglas-ross-says-chancellor-rishi-sunak-come-clean-wifes-tax-affairs/

Seems only fair, considering the unhelpful things that UK Tories say about Douglas Ross.

It's a bit masochistic. "Look at the Tories! They really are shite! Do you want to be ruled by a Tory government in London?" is basically what he says half the time.

I hope his footie refereeing isn't so muddled.

NickPalmer said:

bigjohnowls said:

MoonRabbit said:

bigjohnowls said:

Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.

Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside

You may be alone on PB posting pro Corbyn crazy stuff and funny things from “stats for lefties” web site, but it is still fair Mike gives you your own thread to play in, like giving a 4 year old a sandpit to play in. 🙂

Mike is a good chap.

Unfortunately the timing is not good as I am in the World Snooker Qualifiers yesterday, today and the next three days. Ten minute breaks twice a day.

Best value in sport £10 for 15 hrs sport per day, Or £40 for all 6 days.

Bargain.

Good luck BigJohn!

(And you're not alone in liking Corbyn. There should be scope for his view in Parliament too.)

Are you watching or competing, @BJO?

One of my T's sons was up at the Crucible a few weeks ago competing in a qualifier, serious to the extent that he has a personal table in a local snooker club,

I've never done the WCs there, but a lot of people from around here go most years.

Fairliered said:

MattW said:

FPT?

Cyclefree said:

Off topic.

https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1512410320605749249?s=21&t=bP5fav9Fi8v7s4961VRwzg

I am available at an enormous fee to design the gardens of the Sunak's many homes.

Very nice thread about the border and the lemons

@Cyclefree would you want paid in Sterling or rupees?

NFTs, surely?

Just say headline that Priti Patel is "frustrated" over visa delays for Ukrainian war refugees.

Perhaps she should take the matter up with the Home Secretary?

MoonRabbit said:

DougSeal said:

What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.

This chap, potentially:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Just say headline that Priti Patel is "frustrated" over visa delays for Ukrainian war refugees.

Perhaps she should take the matter up with the Home Secretary?

Posted before; her staff were (eventually) helpful to a constituent who was trying too get sister-in-law, s-i-l's child and mother-in-law over.

Sean_F said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

lol


France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

Presidential run-off election

Macron (EC-RE): 52%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

Macron (EC-RE): 59%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
...

+/- vs. 4 - 7 April

Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
Sample size: 3,016

YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.

That really has tightened up. I wish I'd bet on Le Pen at 14-1 (when I checked two days ago she was 4-1 which did not seem attractive).

Well, I did say at the time

Today her tightest odds are 11/4. Quite the change

I am still pretty sure Macron is going to win. On reflection I think it will be the same as Sindyref. 55/45 - and for similar reasons. The electorate will flirt with radical change, but then pull back, and people scared of Le Pen will reluctantly get off their derrières and vote Macron

There is one big unknown however. The last debate (as I’ve said before)

If Macron cocks it up and Le Pen outperforms…..

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

Farooq said:

Applicant said:

.

SouthamObserver said:

turbotubbs said:

Jonathan said:

Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow

What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.

But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?

Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.

And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".

People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.

Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.

Well, social media has grown.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.

Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.

And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.

Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...

I mean, no.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.

There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.

If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.

Trump "refused to accept defeat as long as he could"? He's STILL refusing!

Blaming Biden and everybody BUT 45 & etc., is like blaming Ukrainians for provoking Putin's invasion.

Total load of pigshit.

MattW said:

MoonRabbit said:

DougSeal said:

What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.

This chap, potentially:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr

I thought it was a still from security footage of Matt Hancock’s last days at work as Health secretary.

JohnO said:

So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

So how do you rate your chances, John?

Assuming that you a) pay for your own wallpaper; and b) do NOT take Farage-HFUYD line that NATO is to blame for provoking Putin.

COVID - Hospitals

An excellent demonstration of why newspapers needed sub-editors and what happens when there are none:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/artists/wish-pink-floyd-reunion-never/

Apart from the proof mistakes the statement that Mason was always on 'Team Dave' is surely incorrect iirc.

boulay said:

MattW said:

MoonRabbit said:

DougSeal said:

What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.

This chap, potentially:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr

I thought it was a still from security footage of Matt Hancock’s last days at work as Health secretary.

He seems to be disinterested in the avatar.

MrEd said:

Sean_F said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

lol


France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

Presidential run-off election

Macron (EC-RE): 52%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

Macron (EC-RE): 59%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
...

+/- vs. 4 - 7 April

Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
Sample size: 3,016

YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.

That really has tightened up. I wish I'd bet on Le Pen at 14-1 (when I checked two days ago she was 4-1 which did not seem attractive).

I did mention worth betting Le Pen a few days ago 😀

I think the 11/4 that Leon mentioned might be a bit tight though

One other wildcard scenario I have thought about was Macron knocked out in the first round given the swing from him / the softness of his support. Almost certainly won’t happen but I wouldn’t be surprised if he loses in the first round .

She is still about 7/2 on Smarkets (and probably Betfair, but I'm premium charged so no longer bother checking) which is probably a good trading bet and a touch of value (though only a touch, Macron is still at least 70% to win imo).

Bet Liz Truss is in the Red Lion at this very moment buying everyone in the room a massive round of drinks!

Scott_xP said:

BREAKING: Rishi Sunak has admitted holding a US green card until October 2021. He became chancellor in February 2020
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1512455079206559748

So he was paying US tax, at least.

I found my remark on Le Pen. March 30th, it was, when I said this



“You can get 14/1 on Le Pen winning, right now

To me that seems VALUE, given that latest poll:



Macron (EC-RE): 52.5% (-3.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 47.5% (+3.5)

+/- vs. 19-21 March 2022


Should be more like 7/1 or 8/1?

She's not a rank outsider, not on those numbers”


Quite prescient


https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/10407/johnson-s-failure-to-apologise-for-party-gate-is-making-matters-worse-politicalbetting-com

MoonRabbit said:

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

MattW said:

MoonRabbit said:

Can you catch covid from farts?

Been there; done that.

TL:DR - the other person wearing pants/panties helps you not catch it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7716952/

A recent study has also suggested post-flush toilet plume to be a potential route of transmission through ‘aerosolized feces’. Another aspect of probable transmission could be through flatulence by infected patients, although no such published data has been found. But, according to several existing investigations, farts do have the tendency to carry micro-particles which have the capacity to spread bacteria (55). However, additional research is still warranted to estimate the intensity of such infections; presence of undergarments/ clothing would however, lower the risk of transmission through this passage. The same was claimed by the Chinese Centres of Disease Control and Prevention that pants do act as a hindrance in the transmission of disease via flatulence that contains the SARS-CoV-2 virus (56).

Flipping eck. I had £25 on no. I was about to post some people are thick and ask for my money, but it looks like I have lost.

You can catch covid from farts 🤭 But bum masks help to some degree.

They need to stick naked mice farting on each other and bum pant mice farting on each other in bowl for more info.

I read your post about your father's thoughts on Rishi. A man grounded in the Nothern heartlands who thought Rishis budget would prove to be a masterstroke and the Tories were now the serious party on their way up....

My reputation as the worst tipster on here was hard earned but I have to admit you're giving me a good run for my money

Where your post was wrong, in many ways the budget was smart not to use all the ammo now in populist media loving splurge. What you are playing on is how you say something to applause when your stock is high, politicians same message not listened to when stock is low. But if someone brings out a decent forward looking budget at a difficult time, next month outed as peadophile, it doesn’t change how the budget should be understood and received, should it? We can be more gown up in our analysis on this blog than that Roger.

Also wrong, and a bit rude, in your overdoing it as Northern Heartlands. My Dad has been a moderate remain voting Tory in same place in Yorkshire since birth. It’s a Tory constituency. Truth is his consistent views no longer majority in his local party let alone the whole North, nor the whole North Labour before Boris came along.

Plenty of poor judgement in your post Roger you need to defend. You should be grown up enough to concede at least some of this.

What’s going on in your avatar? Is it date rape?

The budget could only be described as smart if it had been ghosted by Rachel Reeves. I don't know how long you've been a Lib Dem but I'd keep it under your hat if I were you or people might mistake you for a fifth columnist

You really know how to raise the stakes in a social media flame war Roger. 😆 I’ve been called a bot lots of times, and Farooq claimed only last week I’m not real just a figment of Leon’s washed up Id. 🤢But in one day you have called me a fifth column and suggested I am nearly as bad a tipster as you. Key facts speak for themselves.
The only things I have ever voted is Libdem and count Binface.
All my family and my girlfriend are solid conservatives.
As I told Farooq, the Lib Dems have my vote going forward, especially with Boris in charge of Tory’s. But as I also told Farooq, not every Libdem breaks to labour in a forced Tory or Labour choice. If given that choice today, I would say don’t know. Fortunately though I can carry on voting Libdem not have to make that choice. If Tory’s get taken over by proper conservatives once again, in a forced choice I would say Conservative, because atheist anti monarchy anti nuclear deterrent anti NATO socialist Labour is student politics, and they are controlled by lefty union baron money, so are not for me.

Now as for tipping. I called Shropshire North right and made money, despite having to wear a tin hat on here two months from the vote for placing that bet. On the night I redecorated the lounge with 🤮 over celebrating the win. After Christmas (thanks to my Dad) I tipped the attack to remove big dog, that nearly worked, and thanks to my Dad explained it was not going to happen just when everyone seemed convinced themselves it would, and TSE gave me a ban based on that. I am on Tugenhart and Harper at long odds for next Tory leader. I explained weeks ago why Macron has already lost (he sealed his own fate in 2014). That’s a key point of all my tips, I give analysis as to why I think it. Even with the horses I share analysis why. Does six wins from 16 Cheltenham tips make me sites worst tipster? In one Saturday February I tipped 3 wins from 4 at very long odds and made myself a fair bit of spending money, to share is to care so I am pleased I shared them here. In the morning I will not only tip the Grand National winner but the horse that finishes second.

Why do you regard me as your enemy Roger? What is wrong with your judgement!

I don't. I don't take my posts too seriously so I'm sorry if you do. Fortunately or unfortunately there are posters here who are ridiculously knowledgable about all sorts of things not least politics. To confidently predict anything on here you have to be reasonably certain or at least have good reason for your prediction. I enjoy your posts as it happens though from what I've seen I wouldn't rush down to the book makers on one of your tips.

But apologies I've been offensive. It wasn't intended.

My avatar is a painting by Christian Furr who I like at rhe moment. My previous one was a Helmut Newton which I wish I'd taken. Unfortunately cropped to fit the format here

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OldKingCole said:

Scott_xP said:

NOTE: this is what the US government website says about leaving the US when you have a Green Card use: 👀 https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1512455945225396225 https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1512457211368427525/photo/1

So he had one as an MP?

Yes. But remember Boris had US citizenship whilst Mayor and MP.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/08/boris-johnson-renounces-us-citizenship-record-2016-uk-foreign-secretary

There’s no specific restriction, like in Australia. I suspect there’s a number of dual-national MPs.

Has Boris just chucked Rishi Sunak under the 253 to Archway?


“Rishi Sunak ADMITS he had US green card until a few months ago as PM reveals he’d no idea Chancellor’s wife was non-dom:”

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1512464644002271250?s=21&t=lA90o_js-H_-RsuuYDPt9A

JohnO said:

So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

HYUFD?

Can't say I expected Paul Mason of all people to be taking Corbyn to task on the StW nonsense. It's pretty bitter in its sarcasm, and noting the dishonesty of pretending others (bar Saint Corbyn) want to attack Russia.

All wars are bad. Fine. How do we stop this one? Here's JC's answer... "political pressure on Russia". How? Sanctions? StW is against sanctions. A demo? StW has not joined a single pro-Ukrainian demo in London apart from its own, desultory march

And honestly, for a frontline politician to say "get peace to get Russian forces out of Ukraine" - without specifying the terms on which peace should be made is just waffle: a sixth form politics essay would fail...

So let's be clear what this article is doing. There's nothing massively objectionable amid the platitudes. It's a genuinely-held position of irrelevance, but its function is to defend a bunch of genocide deniers and Putin proxies

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1512374800618041346?s=20&t=1RNEJ7w5Fgo7hPb5cFQFHA

That said, amusing though it is it is positive we can momentarily note he is an irrelevance and then move on.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

MoonRabbit said:

MattW said:

MoonRabbit said:

DougSeal said:

What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.

This chap, potentially:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr

Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women

I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

My lord. That is incredible but also - again - terrifying. 3 minutes of thinking through the implications of this gets you to several scary places. The perfect “inpainting” means you can put a real human in any faked visual situation and it will look 100% convincing.

And the future for most human artists ain’t looking great

There is apparently another new big neural network out there, as well

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

MoonRabbit said:

MattW said:

MoonRabbit said:

DougSeal said:

What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.

This chap, potentially:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr

Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women

I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

You fool, we'll be hearing about it for weeks now!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

MoonRabbit said:

MattW said:

MoonRabbit said:

DougSeal said:

What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.

This chap, potentially:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr

Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women

I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

It's a very good demo

This thread

Artists are finished

https://twitter.com/rosiecampbell/status/1512108933229387776?s=21&t=6gZ7Fd88MzOMjuPaxF4j8Q

Leon said:

This thread

Artists are finished

https://twitter.com/rosiecampbell/status/1512108933229387776?s=21&t=6gZ7Fd88MzOMjuPaxF4j8Q

I liked these...

https://twitter.com/AndrewMayne/status/1511827454536474626?s=20&t=7iNOYMNoxDBKKpwvC0DDeA

https://twitter.com/AndrewMayne/status/1511783850359209984?s=20&t=7iNOYMNoxDBKKpwvC0DDeA


My profile pic of course is an output I created from the rival AI. Anybody want to guess what I asked for?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

This thread

Artists are finished

https://twitter.com/rosiecampbell/status/1512108933229387776?s=21&t=6gZ7Fd88MzOMjuPaxF4j8Q

I liked these...

https://twitter.com/AndrewMayne/status/1511827454536474626?s=20&t=7iNOYMNoxDBKKpwvC0DDeA

https://twitter.com/AndrewMayne/status/1511783850359209984?s=20&t=7iNOYMNoxDBKKpwvC0DDeA


My profile pic of course is an output I created...

This same week Google released PaLM, another language model, which successfully decodes and explains jokes, better than most humans


“Google's new language model AI PaLM shows some incredible reasoning capability, and cause and effect understanding. storage.googleapis.com/pathways-langu…

https://twitter.com/torkelo/status/1511614854519476227?s=21&t=6gZ7Fd88MzOMjuPaxF4j8Q

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

This thread

Artists are finished

https://twitter.com/rosiecampbell/status/1512108933229387776?s=21&t=6gZ7Fd88MzOMjuPaxF4j8Q

I liked these...

https://twitter.com/AndrewMayne/status/1511827454536474626?s=20&t=7iNOYMNoxDBKKpwvC0DDeA

https://twitter.com/AndrewMayne/status/1511783850359209984?s=20&t=7iNOYMNoxDBKKpwvC0DDeA


My profile pic of course is an output I created from the rival AI. Anybody want to guess what I asked for?

Seriously. This means 98% of working artists have just become unemployable

They aren’t as good as this, and DALLE does it all for free and in a trillion different styles and instantaneously

Omg this one


https://twitter.com/becomingcritter/status/1511810858640416771?s=21&t=z5cBncJQCgYDNCXWb-YUFA

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

MoonRabbit said:

MattW said:

MoonRabbit said:

DougSeal said:

What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.

This chap, potentially:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr

Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women

I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

You fool, we'll be hearing about it for weeks now!

Honestly, I am surprised Leon hasn't found it already. It has been widely reported.

I’ve been wandering the ruins of Ephesus!

Andy_JS said:

Pretty sure that in English-speaking countries the current situation in Ukraine would have seriously damaged the electoral prospects of a candidate like Le Pen. Just shows how the French do things differently.

The pitch from Le Pen & Co. is that the elites are looking after themselves, keeping the Poor as pets, and forgetting about the Middle and the Low. Who they despise anyway.

So Macron working hard on foreign affairs plays to that - "While we are talking about the cost of bread....."

.......... and here's today. Time can be cruel.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61043018

Leon said:

Has Boris just chucked Rishi Sunak under the 253 to Archway?


“Rishi Sunak ADMITS he had US green card until a few months ago as PM reveals he’d no idea Chancellor’s wife was non-dom:”

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1512464644002271250?s=21&t=lA90o_js-H_-RsuuYDPt9A

Dunno. If Boris wanted to put Rishi in a locked room with a glass of coca-cola and a loaded revolver, he presumably could now... but (as of now) he hasn't. In which case, Johnson is presumably happy to leave a weakened, compromised Chancellor in place. And whilst that strenghten's Bozza's position right now, it also weakens the Conservative party... and ultimately that will put an end to Johnson as well.

And in typing that out, I recognise that Johnson couldn't give much of a stuff about anything or anyone in the mysterious category "things that aren't Boris Johnson", or about things further in the future than about 30 minutes.

Besides, even if Johnson didn't know, he should have known. Shouldn't he?

TimT said:

Malmesbury said:

TimT said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?

I doubt it, not least because if the Ukrainians are giving them a hammering, imagine what some US made jets and drones could do.

Three days of unrestrained US attacks on Russian troops and equipment in and around Ukraine probably would result in a Russian nuclear response, as there would be no significant Russian military left this side of the Urals.

If NATO does ever get involved directly, I think they'll be very cautious not to be too effective.

Just imagining a couple of B1B loads of BLU-108 on those road bound convoys......

Or even a few Warthogs flying down the road blazing their cannons.

A10s would be shot down by Russian SAM systems in seconds.

IIRC the expected loss rate in a serious, opposed war was the entire USAF complement inside the first week. Which is why the USAF wanted rid of them.

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

This thread

Artists are finished

https://twitter.com/rosiecampbell/status/1512108933229387776?s=21&t=6gZ7Fd88MzOMjuPaxF4j8Q

Isn't this just massively massive plagiarism?

The programmers feed in millions of other people's photos and art works and loads of textual description and this thing learns how to create new images. But they are all based on taking apart the input images I think?

No