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Starmer’s the one with most at stake in the May 5th elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,970
    edited April 8
    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Warsaw summons French ambassador after Macron calls Polish PM ‘anti-Semite'

    https://www.ft.com/content/c279ba21-35a0-4a7e-a8a8-5128527c55e0

    Anything to do with electioneering? (Innocent face).
    Yes. But also to do with the Polish PM's antisemitism.
    In the context of Russia invading its neighbours to 'denazify' them, it might not be a wise narrative to promote.

    @SamRamani2
    The Russian Foreign Ministry transfers its "denazification" rhetoric on Ukraine to Latvia:

    "The ruling regime in Latvia has long been well known for its neo-Nazi preferences and attempts to whitewash the atrocities of Nazi Germany 's henchmen"


    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512491275630559244
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    stodge said:


    I thought I would be professional and wait for the going stick, check the non runners (they might wake up with a cough) and post shortly after 9am Saturday.

    It's not a race from a punting point of view which I enjoy.

    I can count the number of times I've backed the winner in the last 30 years on the fingers of one hand - my last big win was PINEAU DE RE in 2014 who I backed at 33s after I overheard Brendan Powell Senior telling some people at Plumpton Leighton Aspell had told him the horse had a big chance.

    So much for hours of detailed form analysis.

    It's a different race now from what it was - arguably more competitive and at the same time less. There's much less complete dead wood in the race but the overall rise in quality means the winner is often well fancied - the last four have been 14/1, 10/1, 4/1 and 11/1.
    Yes they have continually changed the course, and it attracts better horses in, like Eclair Surf sneaking in quite late. When I was young it seemed to be soft conditions more than recently, the good going favours the quicker horses and quicker time doesn’t it? If it was a hurdle race for example, even at that distance I would be confident of picking out a winner, probably Eclair Surf would be there at finish if it wasn’t for the jumping.

    When flat season kicks in Stodge, 2yr olds over 7f, if I bet at all it will be on your tips. I’ll be differing to you and PBs other flat experts.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,026
    O.T

    Fearne Cotton is playing some great 90 hits on her Radio 2 show. KLF — 3AM Eternal atm.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,682
    kjh said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As someone might have said, you wait ages for a 35% swing and two come along at once.

    A very good of local by-election results for the Greens and for the LDs - probably means nothing but I do wonder if we'll see a big anti-duopoly vote in a month's time. That's the thing with anger - it can lash out in all directions.

    The expectations management game is under way, it seems, ahead of the local elections. The problem for Labour in London is how well they did last time. The vote split was (roughly) LAB 44, CON 29, LD 13. In councillors that meant 1,128 for Labour, 508 for the Conservatives and 152 for the LDs.

    Obviously, we have boundary changes as OGH has noted so Labour, for example, will move up 6 simply because Newham is increasing from 60 to 66 due to rising population whereas other areas will see fewer councillors so councillor numbers may not tell the whole story.

    The key is often when councils change hands as we know - can the LDs hold all three of their councils, will the Conservatives hold their seven? We've already some Conservative-inclined claim holding on to Kensington & Chelsea would represent success but if Labour said they'd have a good night if they held Lambeth, no one would be convinced.

    There's also the complexity of turnout - last time only Richmond saw a turnout above 50% while in Barking & Dagenham turnout was 29.5%.

    Now that we can’t vote in European elections, the local elections will be the best opportunity for people to cast a protest vote.
    No, that's the Police and Crime Commissioner elections, for those unfortunate enough to have them. The ultimate 'cock and balls' voting opportunity.
    The only elections I refuse to vote in. I don't even want to spoil my paper and boost the turnout.
    Fortunately the role has been abolished in West Yorkshire, now we have the "Queen of the North ".
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,148

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Warsaw summons French ambassador after Macron calls Polish PM ‘anti-Semite'

    https://www.ft.com/content/c279ba21-35a0-4a7e-a8a8-5128527c55e0

    Anything to do with electioneering? (Innocent face).
    Yes. But also to do with the Polish PM's antisemitism.
    In the context of Russia invading its neighbours to 'denazify' them, it might not be a wise narrative to promote.

    @SamRamani2
    The Russian Foreign Ministry transfers its "denazification" rhetoric on Ukraine to Latvia:

    "The ruling regime in Latvia has long been well known for its neo-Nazi preferences and attempts to whitewash the atrocities of Nazi Germany 's henchmen"


    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512491275630559244
    Are we allowed to mention Russia being an ally of Nazi Germany and sending it war matériel for two years? Or is that something Russians seek to whitewash?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Warsaw summons French ambassador after Macron calls Polish PM ‘anti-Semite'

    https://www.ft.com/content/c279ba21-35a0-4a7e-a8a8-5128527c55e0

    Anything to do with electioneering? (Innocent face).
    Yes. But also to do with the Polish PM's antisemitism.
    In the context of Russia invading its neighbours to 'denazify' them, it might not be a wise narrative to promote.
    It is, nevertheless, probably true.

    At the very least, like Corbyn, he chooses to hang out with antisemites.

    Now you might argue it is not a good time to say such things, but it doesn't seem like Macron is something completely outrageous.

    It's also perfectly possible that the Polish PM is absolutely right in standing up to Russia and in supporting Ukraine, but has some features that make him less than perfect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,419

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As someone might have said, you wait ages for a 35% swing and two come along at once.

    A very good of local by-election results for the Greens and for the LDs - probably means nothing but I do wonder if we'll see a big anti-duopoly vote in a month's time. That's the thing with anger - it can lash out in all directions.

    The expectations management game is under way, it seems, ahead of the local elections. The problem for Labour in London is how well they did last time. The vote split was (roughly) LAB 44, CON 29, LD 13. In councillors that meant 1,128 for Labour, 508 for the Conservatives and 152 for the LDs.

    Obviously, we have boundary changes as OGH has noted so Labour, for example, will move up 6 simply because Newham is increasing from 60 to 66 due to rising population whereas other areas will see fewer councillors so councillor numbers may not tell the whole story.

    The key is often when councils change hands as we know - can the LDs hold all three of their councils, will the Conservatives hold their seven? We've already some Conservative-inclined claim holding on to Kensington & Chelsea would represent success but if Labour said they'd have a good night if they held Lambeth, no one would be convinced.

    There's also the complexity of turnout - last time only Richmond saw a turnout above 50% while in Barking & Dagenham turnout was 29.5%.

    Now that we can’t vote in European elections, the local elections will be the best opportunity for people to cast a protest vote.
    No, that's the Police and Crime Commissioner elections, for those unfortunate enough to have them. The ultimate 'cock and balls' voting opportunity.
    That's indeed no joke, I've come across more scrawled penises in those than any other type (still not all that many, but more than the usual one or two).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As someone might have said, you wait ages for a 35% swing and two come along at once.

    A very good of local by-election results for the Greens and for the LDs - probably means nothing but I do wonder if we'll see a big anti-duopoly vote in a month's time. That's the thing with anger - it can lash out in all directions.

    The expectations management game is under way, it seems, ahead of the local elections. The problem for Labour in London is how well they did last time. The vote split was (roughly) LAB 44, CON 29, LD 13. In councillors that meant 1,128 for Labour, 508 for the Conservatives and 152 for the LDs.

    Obviously, we have boundary changes as OGH has noted so Labour, for example, will move up 6 simply because Newham is increasing from 60 to 66 due to rising population whereas other areas will see fewer councillors so councillor numbers may not tell the whole story.

    The key is often when councils change hands as we know - can the LDs hold all three of their councils, will the Conservatives hold their seven? We've already some Conservative-inclined claim holding on to Kensington & Chelsea would represent success but if Labour said they'd have a good night if they held Lambeth, no one would be convinced.

    There's also the complexity of turnout - last time only Richmond saw a turnout above 50% while in Barking & Dagenham turnout was 29.5%.

    Now that we can’t vote in European elections, the local elections will be the best opportunity for people to cast a protest vote.
    No, that's the Police and Crime Commissioner elections, for those unfortunate enough to have them. The ultimate 'cock and balls' voting opportunity.
    That's indeed no joke, I've come across more scrawled penises in those than any other type (still not all that many, but more than the usual one or two).
    You sure they are not truncheons
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,761
    Cyclefree said:

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Warsaw summons French ambassador after Macron calls Polish PM ‘anti-Semite'

    https://www.ft.com/content/c279ba21-35a0-4a7e-a8a8-5128527c55e0

    Anything to do with electioneering? (Innocent face).
    Yes. But also to do with the Polish PM's antisemitism.
    In the context of Russia invading its neighbours to 'denazify' them, it might not be a wise narrative to promote.

    @SamRamani2
    The Russian Foreign Ministry transfers its "denazification" rhetoric on Ukraine to Latvia:

    "The ruling regime in Latvia has long been well known for its neo-Nazi preferences and attempts to whitewash the atrocities of Nazi Germany 's henchmen"


    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512491275630559244
    Are we allowed to mention Russia being an ally of Nazi Germany and sending it war matériel for two years? Or is that something Russians seek to whitewash?
    If I were talking to the Russian government right now, my only questions would be what are they smoking and where do I get some?

    Not for personal use, you understand. Twelve ounces of whatever it is they're on sold in the right market would clear the national debt.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,328
    If the EU doesn't pull out every stop on EU membership for Ukraine there's going to have to be a helluva lot of backtracking.


  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,826
    Andy_JS said:

    O.T

    Fearne Cotton is playing some great 90 hits on her Radio 2 show. KLF — 3AM Eternal atm.

    If that sort of thing is your cup of tea, have you been watching the BBC series on Top of the Pops? Very watchable. They're up to 1993. The thing I like best about it is all the songs which I remember but which didn't really move me at all at the time, and where the individuals involved turn out to be gratifyingly articulate and likeable.
    We watched TOTP despite 80% of it leaving us cold for the odd occasion when someone from our tribe would be on. And as a consequence we were exposed to everyone else's stuff too. I slightly miss that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,419

    If the EU doesn't pull out every stop on EU membership for Ukraine there's going to have to be a helluva lot of backtracking.


    Presumably the danger is more from individual bits of the EU seeking to throw a spanner in the works.

    At the very least though getting candidate status seems unproblematic, you can be in there for ages after all.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,682

    If the EU doesn't pull out every stop on EU membership for Ukraine there's going to have to be a helluva lot of backtracking.


    Does Orban have a veto?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,761

    If the EU doesn't pull out every stop on EU membership for Ukraine there's going to have to be a helluva lot of backtracking.


    Does Orban have a veto?
    A veto. Or ban?

    Good night.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,013
    Andy_JS said:

    O.T

    Fearne Cotton is playing some great 90 hits on her Radio 2 show. KLF — 3AM Eternal atm.

    Caught Bjork - Big Time Sensuality earlier. One of my 90s favs.

    Just crawling into the 90's - late 99 - was another of my all time desert island discs - James with "Just Like Fred Astaire".
  • FossFoss Posts: 567
    edited April 8

    If the EU doesn't pull out every stop on EU membership for Ukraine there's going to have to be a helluva lot of backtracking.


    She’ll be gone before that’s a problem for her.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,851
    darkage said:

    Alistair said:

    Somebody leaking again...

    Documents seen by The Independent show trusts linked to Ms Murty, her family and companies linked to their businesses. In a number of them, Mr Sunak was listed as a beneficiary.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-akshata-murty-tax-haven-b2054179.html

    Wow, when her tax affairs first were reported I (a frothing at the mouth tax the rich until their pips squeak left-winger) didn't see what the issue was and felt that the "anger" totally confected.

    Now.... now Sunak is showing all the sure foot of a blind arthritic elephant in a over crowded china shop.
    The sad thing about this story is the emnity towards wealthy and successful people. There is no smoking gun here at all. Everything they have done is entirely legal. Being listed as a 'beneficiary' in a Cayman Islands trust.... so what.

    If you don't like non dom status.... then scrap it. But if it is there, you cannot blame people for using it. And the expectation that she has somehow a greater obligation to Britain than anyone elses wife, is laughable. There are lots of international marriages going on; it is an inevitable consequence of globalisation. People are just projecting their own ideas about marriage - largely from a different age.... on to the Sunaks.

    We have a shortage of sane and competent people going in to politics. These are the people that we elect to run the country. Why not have someone who is has been successful and is independently wealthy.... I don't see the problem. I have never been a particular fan of Sunak, but if he is hounded out over this it would be a bad loss.

    The end point, is that no one successful, goes in to politics.... and we are nearly there already. We will just get a bunch of activists. We end up with Jared O'Mara 2; over and over again.
    I mostly agree. From my left-wing position I think that frothing over individuals taking advantage of a deliberately-created loophole is a distraction and unfair as well. Change the system so that it rewards people for doing what we want - making nondom status vastly more expensive would be a start, so that in the end it's usually more sensible just to pay tax in the country where you live..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,013
    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,328
    I think my first day as Easyjet's social media director went rather well.


  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,380

    Pour me a foaming pint of hasbeeno my good man.


    Is that Holly Valence?!
This discussion has been closed.