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Starmer’s the one with most at stake in the May 5th elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson in London
    Le Pen in Paris
    Trump in Washington
    Putin smiling in Moscow

    What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.

    But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?

    Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.
    And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".
    People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.
    Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.
    Well, social media has grown.
    Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
    Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.
    And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.
    Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
    Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...
    I mean, no.
    The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
    The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
    But Trump did after he lost to Biden.

    There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
    If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.
    Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.

    *Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
    The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...

    The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.

    And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
    You don't think he would try and avoid time limits? He has tried everything else.
    No, I don't. It needs a constitutional amendment, which ain't happening.
    It would also need him to live long enough. The man is 75, permanently angry, and pure lard. Reckon he's got 7 years left in him? I don't.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,643
    edited April 2022

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    YouGov puts it on a knife-edge.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512397289289097221

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Datapraxis/YouGov poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-3)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+3)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 42%
    ...
    +/- vs. 28 - 31 March

    Fieldwork: 4-7 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,783"

    Might be time to start worrying about the quiet Le Pen voters. Larger than average turnouts in small towns might well portent to a Macron mashing.
    Since 2017 Le Pen has underperformed her polling numbers at subsequent elections .. It’s a bit more complicated this time as Zemmour transfers might make that less likely so the combined far right score should be a better guide .

    Sure. I agree to a point.

    Of course I'm drawing on Trump/Brexit/Johnson effects and the ability of certain right wingers to draw out the low propensity voters in the anglosphere. Yes, she's not managed it so far but.. a little momentum leads to a Le Pen vote being more social acceptable and a little more momentum. Before you know it your low information voters have turned.
    That’s a fair point . The next polls after the 1st round will be key as then voters have given Macron the kicking and then we’ll see how many are still willing to go for Le Pen .

    I’d be more worried if Macrons strong voter group were younger people , as it is he has a huge lead in over 65s when matched against Le Pen and that’s the group who are much more likely to vote in their droves .
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson in London
    Le Pen in Paris
    Trump in Washington
    Putin smiling in Moscow

    What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.

    But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?

    Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.
    And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".
    People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.
    Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.
    Well, social media has grown.
    Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
    Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.
    And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.
    Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
    Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...
    I mean, no.
    The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
    The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
    But Trump did after he lost to Biden.

    There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
    If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.
    Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.

    *Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
    The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...

    The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.

    And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
    !!!

    You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
    This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.
    At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.

    And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.
    You want spending controls on elections? Fine by me.
    I'd also be happy if the Democrats, Republicans, AND Facebook didn't exist.

    But there's not some conspiracy against your guy. It's just that a lot of people think he's an arsehole. And, well, he proved them right.
    Well, Trump isn't "my guy", except in that I don't have an irrational hatred for him. Sure, he's an arsehole. But if the Dems don't pull their fingers out, he could win again.
    Thank you for that image. Fingers and arsehole in the same post…
    YKIOK.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Scott_xP said:

    Having said lots of unhelpful things about Boris Johnson pre-Ukraine, Douglas Ross is now saying unhelpful things about Rishi Sunak
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20056000.douglas-ross-says-chancellor-rishi-sunak-come-clean-wifes-tax-affairs/

    Speaks volumes about Ross these Example of a fair weather friend.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson in London
    Le Pen in Paris
    Trump in Washington
    Putin smiling in Moscow

    What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.

    But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?

    Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.
    And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".
    People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.
    Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.
    Well, social media has grown.
    Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
    Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.
    And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.
    Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
    Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...
    I mean, no.
    The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
    The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
    But Trump did after he lost to Biden.

    There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
    If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.
    Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.

    *Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
    The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...

    The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.

    And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
    You don't think he would try and avoid time limits? He has tried everything else.
    No, I don't. It needs a constitutional amendment, which ain't happening.
    It would also need him to live long enough. The man is 75, permanently angry, and pure lard. Reckon he's got 7 years left in him? I don't.
    Well, this is also true, yes.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716

    Heathener said:

    I think Labour will be pretty happy with the latest polling: leads of 5%, 6% and 7% and all three polls having them at 40% or higher. That's pretty solid.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    It looks like the narrowing we saw at the outbreak of Putin's war on Ukraine has dropped out of the equation and we're back to where we were, albeit not yet seeing the occasional double digit leads as we did during the height of partygate.

    I'm not really sure how in the current situation the tories intend to turn this around. Boris Johnson seems to have a wow factor with some floating voters but during the early Ukraine crisis he wasn't under negative scrutiny as he will be in the build up to the General Election. So I return to the question: how will the tories turn this around?

    I don't think they can unless they change leader and that's not now likely. They are heading to lose power after 14 years of holding the keys to No. 10.

    Just about every Government over the past 50 years has had poor opinion polls mid term and many have gone on to win the next election, often very easily.
    Though circumstance doesn’t seem to be trending that way.

    If elections are always about the economy (at the end of the day), are people really going to vote Tory when they’re experiencing a direct hit on wages / cost of living / etc
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,639
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson in London
    Le Pen in Paris
    Trump in Washington
    Putin smiling in Moscow

    What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.

    But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?

    Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.
    And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".
    People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.
    Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.
    Well, social media has grown.
    Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
    Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.
    And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.
    Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
    Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...
    I mean, no.
    The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
    The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
    But Trump did after he lost to Biden.

    There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
    If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.
    Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.

    *Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
    The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...

    The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.

    And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
    !!!

    You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
    This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.
    At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.

    And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.
    You want spending controls on elections? Fine by me.
    I'd also be happy if the Democrats, Republicans, AND Facebook didn't exist.

    But there's not some conspiracy against your guy. It's just that a lot of people think he's an arsehole. And, well, he proved them right.
    Well, Trump isn't "my guy", except in that I don't have an irrational hatred for him. Sure, he's an arsehole. But if the Dems don't pull their fingers out, he could win again.
    Thank you for that image. Fingers and arsehole in the same post…
    YKIOK.
    Trump and Pelosi? Yeuuch!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,137
    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214

    Trump must never win another election.

    Sadly it’s inevitable and unstoppable. the insane fuel on the economic fire that marked the first year of the Biden administration has guaranteed recession in the last year of the term. Those rustbelt/brexit states dems can’t win without them are going to hammer Biden’s party regardless who the two nominees are.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson in London
    Le Pen in Paris
    Trump in Washington
    Putin smiling in Moscow

    What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.

    But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?

    Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.
    And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".
    People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.
    Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.
    Well, social media has grown.
    Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
    Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.
    And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.
    Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
    Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...
    I mean, no.
    The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
    The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
    But Trump did after he lost to Biden.

    There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
    If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.
    Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.

    *Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
    The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...

    The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.

    And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
    !!!

    You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
    This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.
    At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.

    And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.
    You want spending controls on elections? Fine by me.
    I'd also be happy if the Democrats, Republicans, AND Facebook didn't exist.

    But there's not some conspiracy against your guy. It's just that a lot of people think he's an arsehole. And, well, he proved them right.
    Well, Trump isn't "my guy", except in that I don't have an irrational hatred for him. Sure, he's an arsehole. But if the Dems don't pull their fingers out, he could win again.
    Thank you for that image. Fingers and arsehole in the same post…
    YKIOK.
    Trump and Pelosi? Yeuuch!
    Rule 34. Deepfake.

    :lol:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    lol


    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Macron (EC-RE): 52%
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

    Macron (EC-RE): 59%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
    ...

    +/- vs. 4 - 7 April

    Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
    Sample size: 3,016
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    FPT?

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1512410320605749249?s=21&t=bP5fav9Fi8v7s4961VRwzg

    I am available at an enormous fee to design the gardens of the Sunak's many homes.

    Very nice thread about the border and the lemons :smile:
    Agreed. I did wonder if any sheep lean over the fence at the back for a nibble.
    If it's lemons it might only happen once.

    (But I am not a sheep expert.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Heathener said:

    I’d be surprised if the French result is tighter than 55/45 to Macron.

    Anti-Le Pen voters have high motivation to turn out in the second round. Anti-Macron voters do not.

    Yep I reckon 60:40 or better for Macron.
    Your analysis disagrees the electorate have drifted rightwards in the last five years, and a big majority now loath both Macron and his “only for the rich elite” policies?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,006

    Heathener said:

    I think Labour will be pretty happy with the latest polling: leads of 5%, 6% and 7% and all three polls having them at 40% or higher. That's pretty solid.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    It looks like the narrowing we saw at the outbreak of Putin's war on Ukraine has dropped out of the equation and we're back to where we were, albeit not yet seeing the occasional double digit leads as we did during the height of partygate.

    I'm not really sure how in the current situation the tories intend to turn this around. Boris Johnson seems to have a wow factor with some floating voters but during the early Ukraine crisis he wasn't under negative scrutiny as he will be in the build up to the General Election. So I return to the question: how will the tories turn this around?

    I don't think they can unless they change leader and that's not now likely. They are heading to lose power after 14 years of holding the keys to No. 10.

    Just about every Government over the past 50 years has had poor opinion polls mid term and many have gone on to win the next election, often very easily.
    Though circumstance doesn’t seem to be trending that way.

    If elections are always about the economy (at the end of the day), are people really going to vote Tory when they’re experiencing a direct hit on wages / cost of living / etc
    I don't know, it may get a lot worse for the tories or it may get a lot better. I have been convinced for a while that opinion poll movements can be linked to the price of petrol and petrol may be a lot cheaper come 2024.

    SKS's "success" at the moment is just in the opinion polls, when it comes to actual votes Labour has done poorly over the past year and compared to Blair's NL in 1995 their performace has been woeful.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Scott_xP said:

    Having said lots of unhelpful things about Boris Johnson pre-Ukraine, Douglas Ross is now saying unhelpful things about Rishi Sunak
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20056000.douglas-ross-says-chancellor-rishi-sunak-come-clean-wifes-tax-affairs/

    Speaks volumes about Ross these Example of a fair weather friend.
    Fair weather enemy surely. He's been going back very much to the Johnsonian camp of late.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,151
    Heathener said:

    I’d be surprised if the French result is tighter than 55/45 to Macron.

    Anti-Le Pen voters have high motivation to turn out in the second round. Anti-Macron voters do not.

    Yep I reckon 60:40 or better for Macron.
    How much money do you want to back that with?
  • kjh said:

    @Malmesbury FPT.

    a) I looked up to see if there was a double taxation agreement with India as you asked. There is. I tried reading it and gave up because I got to the point where I couldn't be arsed (it is bad enough I have had to read the Spanish and Swiss ones) but I'm guessing it is pretty standard.

    b) Did you see my post towards the end of the last thread. Between us we appear to have wasted a lot of words as we were talking about different things. I was talking about company vs self employment you were talking about company vs employment. I actually agree with everything you said on company vs employment.

    BBC pointing out that inheritance tax not part of Indian taxation, so potential £280m saving from non dom status.

    Person responsible for reviewing the tax laws in such situations? Rishi.
    There is an old estate tax treaty with India which covers inheritance tax.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1956/998/made

    Provides benefits for anyone domiled in any part of India and not domiciled in any part of the UK.
  • JohnO said:

    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

    So you are under serious attack from the Lib Dems according to your local conservative mp?

    https://www.libdemvoice.org/dominic-raab-blue-wall-under-serious-attack-from-the-lib-dems-70309.html

  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,345
    JohnO said:

    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

    Good luck, even though you are the opposition. It only seems a year or two ago you posted the really funny comment on who to vote for in your ward. Are you on both Borough and County or am I confused.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Leon said:

    lol


    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Macron (EC-RE): 52%
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

    Macron (EC-RE): 59%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
    ...

    +/- vs. 4 - 7 April

    Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
    Sample size: 3,016

    YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,345

    Trump must never win another election.

    What if a majority of the 2024 Electoral College voters support him? How about then?
    I'm tempted to say no. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    Trump must never win another election.

    Sadly it’s inevitable and unstoppable. the insane fuel on the economic fire that marked the first year of the Biden administration has guaranteed recession in the last year of the term. Those rustbelt/brexit states dems can’t win without them are going to hammer Biden’s party regardless who the two nominees are.
    I'm not convinced Trump will be the GOP candidate, despite what the US pundits say.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373

    ”national region”

    Top class trolling Mike.

    Anyhoo, this particular majestic Atlantic salmon is not rising to the risible, badly-tied chalk-stream fly. I only popped along to observe that global food inflation was 34% in March. Ouch!

    I can’t rising to the bait, though! As any fule kno, Scotland is a nation. Wales is a nation. NI is a region of Ireland.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,907

    Heathener said:

    I think Labour will be pretty happy with the latest polling: leads of 5%, 6% and 7% and all three polls having them at 40% or higher. That's pretty solid.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    It looks like the narrowing we saw at the outbreak of Putin's war on Ukraine has dropped out of the equation and we're back to where we were, albeit not yet seeing the occasional double digit leads as we did during the height of partygate.

    I'm not really sure how in the current situation the tories intend to turn this around. Boris Johnson seems to have a wow factor with some floating voters but during the early Ukraine crisis he wasn't under negative scrutiny as he will be in the build up to the General Election. So I return to the question: how will the tories turn this around?

    I don't think they can unless they change leader and that's not now likely. They are heading to lose power after 14 years of holding the keys to No. 10.

    Just about every Government over the past 50 years has had poor opinion polls mid term and many have gone on to win the next election, often very easily.
    Though circumstance doesn’t seem to be trending that way.

    If elections are always about the economy (at the end of the day), are people really going to vote Tory when they’re experiencing a direct hit on wages / cost of living / etc
    The answer to that is Possibly.

    (I am not commenting on GE 2024 in particular, just making a general point about the behaviour of the electorate).

    Britain was sliding into a recession in 1992, yet John Major won the GE in difficult economic circumstances. Even though almost everyone had written him off.

    If there is a recession, the more an individual elector focuses on the question: will I be better off over the next 5 years with a Tory or Labour Govt.

    An election in a recession need not necessarily work to the Tories' disadvantage if they can paint Labour as high tax-and-spend and convince enough people that they will be worse off over the next 5 years with Labour.

    Which is what happened in 1992 with John Major.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373

    Corbyn has written an article defending Galloway's Stop The War. There is no way back for him in Starmer's Labour now. So I guess he will either retire in 2024 or try and become the proper independent MP for N Islington's dinning tables.

    Corbyn will never retire, like Dennis Skinner...its been his whole life and his belief in his views (and everybody else is wrong) have never wavered for 40 years.
    Was checking details of the Socialist Labour Party, as they are standing a candidate in our ward. Arthur Scargill is still their leader!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373
    Scott_xP said:

    Having said lots of unhelpful things about Boris Johnson pre-Ukraine, Douglas Ross is now saying unhelpful things about Rishi Sunak
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20056000.douglas-ross-says-chancellor-rishi-sunak-come-clean-wifes-tax-affairs/

    Seems only fair, considering the unhelpful things that UK Tories say about Douglas Ross.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,664
    edited April 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    lol


    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Macron (EC-RE): 52%
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

    Macron (EC-RE): 59%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
    ...

    +/- vs. 4 - 7 April

    Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
    Sample size: 3,016

    YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.
    Given Le Pen hasn't really seemed to do anything impressive in the last few days I can only guess it's a bit of an anti-Macron surge in the country. Poor timing, and given he should be benefitting from a wartime bounce it's not looking good.

    It does hopefully reduce the chances of a complacent electorate not turning up to the second round and letting Le Pen in.

    Macron is so far ahead in round 1 that his supporters would do well to cast a tactical vote for Melenchon.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump must never win another election.

    Sadly it’s inevitable and unstoppable. the insane fuel on the economic fire that marked the first year of the Biden administration has guaranteed recession in the last year of the term. Those rustbelt/brexit states dems can’t win without them are going to hammer Biden’s party regardless who the two nominees are.
    I'm not convinced Trump will be the GOP candidate, despite what the US pundits say.
    I'm not convinced he really wants to be - other than perhaps for the distinction of being only the second president to win, lose and then win again.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604

    Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.

    Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside

    Do you not like him?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373
    MattW said:

    FPT?

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1512410320605749249?s=21&t=bP5fav9Fi8v7s4961VRwzg

    I am available at an enormous fee to design the gardens of the Sunak's many homes.

    Very nice thread about the border and the lemons :smile:
    @Cyclefree would you want paid in Sterling or rupees?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,327
    Rishi is the archetypal Citizen of Nowhere.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    Boris on Rishi's Green Card: "As far as I'm concerned the Chancellor has done everything he's expected to do". Further confirmation Rishi Sunak did indeed have a Green Card.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512449320007708678
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Can you catch covid from farts?

    Been there; done that.

    TL:DR - the other person wearing pants/panties helps you not catch it.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7716952/

    A recent study has also suggested post-flush toilet plume to be a potential route of transmission through ‘aerosolized feces’. Another aspect of probable transmission could be through flatulence by infected patients, although no such published data has been found. But, according to several existing investigations, farts do have the tendency to carry micro-particles which have the capacity to spread bacteria (55). However, additional research is still warranted to estimate the intensity of such infections; presence of undergarments/ clothing would however, lower the risk of transmission through this passage. The same was claimed by the Chinese Centres of Disease Control and Prevention that pants do act as a hindrance in the transmission of disease via flatulence that contains the SARS-CoV-2 virus (56).
    Flipping eck. I had £25 on no. I was about to post some people are thick and ask for my money, but it looks like I have lost.

    You can catch covid from farts 🤭 But bum masks help to some degree.

    They need to stick naked mice farting on each other and bum pant mice farting on each other in bowl for more info.
    I read your post about your father's thoughts on Rishi. A man grounded in the Nothern heartlands who thought Rishis budget would prove to be a masterstroke and the Tories were now the serious party on their way up....

    My reputation as the worst tipster on here was hard earned but I have to admit you're giving me a good run for my money
    Where your post was wrong, in many ways the budget was smart not to use all the ammo now in populist media loving splurge. What you are playing on is how you say something to applause when your stock is high, politicians same message not listened to when stock is low. But if someone brings out a decent forward looking budget at a difficult time, next month outed as peadophile, it doesn’t change how the budget should be understood and received, should it? We can be more gown up in our analysis on this blog than that Roger.

    Also wrong, and a bit rude, in your overdoing it as Northern Heartlands. My Dad has been a moderate remain voting Tory in same place in Yorkshire since birth. It’s a Tory constituency. Truth is his consistent views no longer majority in his local party let alone the whole North, nor the whole North Labour before Boris came along.

    Plenty of poor judgement in your post Roger you need to defend. You should be grown up enough to concede at least some of this.

    What’s going on in your avatar? Is it date rape?
    The budget could only be described as smart if it had been ghosted by Rachel Reeves. I don't know how long you've been a Lib Dem but I'd keep it under your hat if I were you or people might mistake you for a fifth columnist
    You really know how to raise the stakes in a social media flame war Roger. 😆 I’ve been called a bot lots of times, and Farooq claimed only last week I’m not real just a figment of Leon’s washed up Id. 🤢But in one day you have called me a fifth column and suggested I am nearly as bad a tipster as you. Key facts speak for themselves.
    The only things I have ever voted is Libdem and count Binface.
    All my family and my girlfriend are solid conservatives.
    As I told Farooq, the Lib Dems have my vote going forward, especially with Boris in charge of Tory’s. But as I also told Farooq, not every Libdem breaks to labour in a forced Tory or Labour choice. If given that choice today, I would say don’t know. Fortunately though I can carry on voting Libdem not have to make that choice. If Tory’s get taken over by proper conservatives once again, in a forced choice I would say Conservative, because atheist anti monarchy anti nuclear deterrent anti NATO socialist Labour is student politics, and they are controlled by lefty union baron money, so are not for me.

    Now as for tipping. I called Shropshire North right and made money, despite having to wear a tin hat on here two months from the vote for placing that bet. On the night I redecorated the lounge with 🤮 over celebrating the win. After Christmas (thanks to my Dad) I tipped the attack to remove big dog, that nearly worked, and thanks to my Dad explained it was not going to happen just when everyone seemed convinced themselves it would, and TSE gave me a ban based on that. I am on Tugenhart and Harper at long odds for next Tory leader. I explained weeks ago why Macron has already lost (he sealed his own fate in 2014). That’s a key point of all my tips, I give analysis as to why I think it. Even with the horses I share analysis why. Does six wins from 16 Cheltenham tips make me sites worst tipster? In one Saturday February I tipped 3 wins from 4 at very long odds and made myself a fair bit of spending money, to share is to care so I am pleased I shared them here. In the morning I will not only tip the Grand National winner but the horse that finishes second.

    Why do you regard me as your enemy Roger? What is wrong with your judgement!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,052

    Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.

    Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside

    You may be alone on PB posting pro Corbyn crazy stuff and funny things from “stats for lefties” web site, but it is still fair Mike gives you your own thread to play in, like giving a 4 year old a sandpit to play in. 🙂
    Mike is a good chap.

    Unfortunately the timing is not good as I am in the World Snooker Qualifiers yesterday, today and the next three days. Ten minute breaks twice a day.

    Best value in sport £10 for 15 hrs sport per day, Or £40 for all 6 days.

    Bargain.
    Good luck BigJohn!

    (And you're not alone in liking Corbyn. There should be scope for his view in Parliament too.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Scott_xP said:

    Having said lots of unhelpful things about Boris Johnson pre-Ukraine, Douglas Ross is now saying unhelpful things about Rishi Sunak
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20056000.douglas-ross-says-chancellor-rishi-sunak-come-clean-wifes-tax-affairs/

    Seems only fair, considering the unhelpful things that UK Tories say about Douglas Ross.
    It's a bit masochistic. "Look at the Tories! They really are shite! Do you want to be ruled by a Tory government in London?" is basically what he says half the time.

    I hope his footie refereeing isn't so muddled.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    edited April 2022

    Corbyn has written an article defending Galloway's Stop The War. There is no way back for him in Starmer's Labour now. So I guess he will either retire in 2024 or try and become the proper independent MP for N Islington's dinning tables.

    Corbyn will never retire, like Dennis Skinner...its been his whole life and his belief in his views (and everybody else is wrong) have never wavered for 40 years.
    Skinner has vanished afaics. And it was 50 years.

    Though tbf I was mainly aware of him as an embarrassing local MP for many years, including my own for several decades in toto.

    Has he just moved to a smaller echo chamber near his flat in Kensington or Knightsbridge or wherever it is?

    What posts does he still hold? The only one I know is something honorary in the Socialist Campaign Group.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154

    Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.

    Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside

    You may be alone on PB posting pro Corbyn crazy stuff and funny things from “stats for lefties” web site, but it is still fair Mike gives you your own thread to play in, like giving a 4 year old a sandpit to play in. 🙂
    Mike is a good chap.

    Unfortunately the timing is not good as I am in the World Snooker Qualifiers yesterday, today and the next three days. Ten minute breaks twice a day.

    Best value in sport £10 for 15 hrs sport per day, Or £40 for all 6 days.

    Bargain.
    Good luck BigJohn!

    (And you're not alone in liking Corbyn. There should be scope for his view in Parliament too.)
    Are you watching or competing, @BJO?

    One of my T's sons was up at the Crucible a few weeks ago competing in a qualifier, serious to the extent that he has a personal table in a local snooker club,

    I've never done the WCs there, but a lot of people from around here go most years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,312
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    lol


    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Macron (EC-RE): 52%
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

    Macron (EC-RE): 59%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
    ...

    +/- vs. 4 - 7 April

    Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
    Sample size: 3,016

    YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.
    That really has tightened up. I wish I'd bet on Le Pen at 14-1 (when I checked two days ago she was 4-1 which did not seem attractive).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154

    MattW said:

    FPT?

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic.

    https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1512410320605749249?s=21&t=bP5fav9Fi8v7s4961VRwzg

    I am available at an enormous fee to design the gardens of the Sunak's many homes.

    Very nice thread about the border and the lemons :smile:
    @Cyclefree would you want paid in Sterling or rupees?
    NFTs, surely?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,312

    Heathener said:

    I think Labour will be pretty happy with the latest polling: leads of 5%, 6% and 7% and all three polls having them at 40% or higher. That's pretty solid.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

    It looks like the narrowing we saw at the outbreak of Putin's war on Ukraine has dropped out of the equation and we're back to where we were, albeit not yet seeing the occasional double digit leads as we did during the height of partygate.

    I'm not really sure how in the current situation the tories intend to turn this around. Boris Johnson seems to have a wow factor with some floating voters but during the early Ukraine crisis he wasn't under negative scrutiny as he will be in the build up to the General Election. So I return to the question: how will the tories turn this around?

    I don't think they can unless they change leader and that's not now likely. They are heading to lose power after 14 years of holding the keys to No. 10.

    Just about every Government over the past 50 years has had poor opinion polls mid term and many have gone on to win the next election, often very easily.
    35% or so seems a reasonable position for the government to be in at this point.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Just say headline that Priti Patel is "frustrated" over visa delays for Ukrainian war refugees.

    Perhaps she should take the matter up with the Home Secretary?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited April 2022
    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154

    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
    This chap, potentially:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,308

    Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.

    Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside

    You may be alone on PB posting pro Corbyn crazy stuff and funny things from “stats for lefties” web site, but it is still fair Mike gives you your own thread to play in, like giving a 4 year old a sandpit to play in. 🙂
    Mike is a good chap.

    Unfortunately the timing is not good as I am in the World Snooker Qualifiers yesterday, today and the next three days. Ten minute breaks twice a day.

    Best value in sport £10 for 15 hrs sport per day, Or £40 for all 6 days.

    Bargain.
    Good luck BigJohn!

    (And you're not alone in liking Corbyn. There should be scope for his view in Parliament too.)
    Under PR of course he'd be there with an acolyte or two in something like People before Profit. Listened to politely for the annual not quite bon mot but sensible suggestion!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,308

    Just say headline that Priti Patel is "frustrated" over visa delays for Ukrainian war refugees.

    Perhaps she should take the matter up with the Home Secretary?

    Posted before; her staff were (eventually) helpful to a constituent who was trying too get sister-in-law, s-i-l's child and mother-in-law over.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    BREAKING: Rishi Sunak has admitted holding a US green card until October 2021. He became chancellor in February 2020
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1512455079206559748
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    lol


    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Macron (EC-RE): 52%
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

    Macron (EC-RE): 59%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
    ...

    +/- vs. 4 - 7 April

    Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
    Sample size: 3,016

    YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.
    That really has tightened up. I wish I'd bet on Le Pen at 14-1 (when I checked two days ago she was 4-1 which did not seem attractive).
    Well, I did say at the time

    Today her tightest odds are 11/4. Quite the change

    I am still pretty sure Macron is going to win. On reflection I think it will be the same as Sindyref. 55/45 - and for similar reasons. The electorate will flirt with radical change, but then pull back, and people scared of Le Pen will reluctantly get off their derrières and vote Macron

    There is one big unknown however. The last debate (as I’ve said before)

    If Macron cocks it up and Le Pen outperforms…..
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,907

    Daily Mail Watch.

    The illustration to the article " Man almost loses tip of his penis ..." is exceptionally helpful for the slower-witted DM readers.

    https://tinyurl.com/2p8jhbfy

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson in London
    Le Pen in Paris
    Trump in Washington
    Putin smiling in Moscow

    What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.

    But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?

    Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.
    And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".
    People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.
    Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.
    Well, social media has grown.
    Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
    Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.
    And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.
    Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
    Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...
    I mean, no.
    The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
    The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
    But Trump did after he lost to Biden.

    There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
    If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.
    Trump "refused to accept defeat as long as he could"? He's STILL refusing!

    Blaming Biden and everybody BUT 45 & etc., is like blaming Ukrainians for provoking Putin's invasion.

    Total load of pigshit.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    lol


    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Macron (EC-RE): 52%
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

    Macron (EC-RE): 59%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
    ...

    +/- vs. 4 - 7 April

    Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
    Sample size: 3,016

    YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.
    That really has tightened up. I wish I'd bet on Le Pen at 14-1 (when I checked two days ago she was 4-1 which did not seem attractive).
    I did mention worth betting Le Pen a few days ago 😀

    I think the 11/4 that Leon mentioned might be a bit tight though

    One other wildcard scenario I have thought about was Macron knocked out in the first round given the swing from him / the softness of his support. Almost certainly won’t happen but I wouldn’t be surprised if he loses in the first round .
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,909
    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
    This chap, potentially:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr
    I thought it was a still from security footage of Matt Hancock’s last days at work as Health secretary.
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 215
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Rishi Sunak has admitted holding a US green card until October 2021. He became chancellor in February 2020
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1512455079206559748

    Did not have Sunak gone before Boris in the sweepstake
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    JohnO said:

    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

    So how do you rate your chances, John?

    Assuming that you a) pay for your own wallpaper; and b) do NOT take Farage-HFUYD line that NATO is to blame for provoking Putin.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,264
    NOTE: this is what the US government website says about leaving the US when you have a Green Card use: 👀 https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1512455945225396225 https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1512457211368427525/photo/1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,151
    COVID - Hospitals

    image
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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,151
    COVID Deaths

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    An excellent demonstration of why newspapers needed sub-editors and what happens when there are none:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/artists/wish-pink-floyd-reunion-never/

    Apart from the proof mistakes the statement that Mason was always on 'Team Dave' is surely incorrect iirc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,151
    COVID admissions

    image
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  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    edited April 2022
    boulay said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
    This chap, potentially:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr
    I thought it was a still from security footage of Matt Hancock’s last days at work as Health secretary.
    He seems to be disinterested in the avatar.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,151
    Summary

    - Hospital admission R dips below 1.
    - In hospital - FLAT
    - MV Beds - FLAT
    - Deaths - UP, but increase slowing.

    image
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,912
    MrEd said:

    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    lol


    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Presidential run-off election

    Macron (EC-RE): 52%
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 48%

    Macron (EC-RE): 59%
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41%
    ...

    +/- vs. 4 - 7 April

    Fieldwork: 5 - 8 April 2022
    Sample size: 3,016

    YouGov today has it 51/49. 3% swing to Le Pen.
    That really has tightened up. I wish I'd bet on Le Pen at 14-1 (when I checked two days ago she was 4-1 which did not seem attractive).
    I did mention worth betting Le Pen a few days ago 😀

    I think the 11/4 that Leon mentioned might be a bit tight though

    One other wildcard scenario I have thought about was Macron knocked out in the first round given the swing from him / the softness of his support. Almost certainly won’t happen but I wouldn’t be surprised if he loses in the first round .
    She is still about 7/2 on Smarkets (and probably Betfair, but I'm premium charged so no longer bother checking) which is probably a good trading bet and a touch of value (though only a touch, Macron is still at least 70% to win imo).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,308
    Scott_xP said:

    NOTE: this is what the US government website says about leaving the US when you have a Green Card use: 👀 https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1512455945225396225 https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1512457211368427525/photo/1

    So he had one as an MP?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Bet Liz Truss is in the Red Lion at this very moment buying everyone in the room a massive round of drinks!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,308
    Duplicated, so deleted.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,327
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Rishi Sunak has admitted holding a US green card until October 2021. He became chancellor in February 2020
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1512455079206559748

    So he was paying US tax, at least.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,327
    rcs1000 said:

    Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?

    I doubt it, not least because if the Ukrainians are giving them a hammering, imagine what some US made jets and drones could do.
    Three days of unrestrained US attacks on Russian troops and equipment in and around Ukraine probably would result in a Russian nuclear response, as there would be no significant Russian military left this side of the Urals.

    If NATO does ever get involved directly, I think they'll be very cautious not to be too effective.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    I found my remark on Le Pen. March 30th, it was, when I said this



    “You can get 14/1 on Le Pen winning, right now

    To me that seems VALUE, given that latest poll:



    Macron (EC-RE): 52.5% (-3.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47.5% (+3.5)

    +/- vs. 19-21 March 2022


    Should be more like 7/1 or 8/1?

    She's not a rank outsider, not on those numbers”


    Quite prescient


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/10407/johnson-s-failure-to-apologise-for-party-gate-is-making-matters-worse-politicalbetting-com
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,327
    rcs1000 said:

    While much of the United States has reported a plateau in coronavirus cases in recent weeks, New York City and Washington, D.C., have been battling a swift rise in cases in the last two weeks...

    ...the highly contagious BA.2 subvariant is contributing to a new wave in some places, especially in the Northeast.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/08/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine#cases-are-spiking-in-new-york-city-and-washington-dc

    I'm in DC right now...

    I'm also flying to plague Island the UK tomorrow.
    Should have let me know. Could have met up for a coffee, if you'd have liked.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Can you catch covid from farts?

    Been there; done that.

    TL:DR - the other person wearing pants/panties helps you not catch it.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7716952/

    A recent study has also suggested post-flush toilet plume to be a potential route of transmission through ‘aerosolized feces’. Another aspect of probable transmission could be through flatulence by infected patients, although no such published data has been found. But, according to several existing investigations, farts do have the tendency to carry micro-particles which have the capacity to spread bacteria (55). However, additional research is still warranted to estimate the intensity of such infections; presence of undergarments/ clothing would however, lower the risk of transmission through this passage. The same was claimed by the Chinese Centres of Disease Control and Prevention that pants do act as a hindrance in the transmission of disease via flatulence that contains the SARS-CoV-2 virus (56).
    Flipping eck. I had £25 on no. I was about to post some people are thick and ask for my money, but it looks like I have lost.

    You can catch covid from farts 🤭 But bum masks help to some degree.

    They need to stick naked mice farting on each other and bum pant mice farting on each other in bowl for more info.
    I read your post about your father's thoughts on Rishi. A man grounded in the Nothern heartlands who thought Rishis budget would prove to be a masterstroke and the Tories were now the serious party on their way up....

    My reputation as the worst tipster on here was hard earned but I have to admit you're giving me a good run for my money
    Where your post was wrong, in many ways the budget was smart not to use all the ammo now in populist media loving splurge. What you are playing on is how you say something to applause when your stock is high, politicians same message not listened to when stock is low. But if someone brings out a decent forward looking budget at a difficult time, next month outed as peadophile, it doesn’t change how the budget should be understood and received, should it? We can be more gown up in our analysis on this blog than that Roger.

    Also wrong, and a bit rude, in your overdoing it as Northern Heartlands. My Dad has been a moderate remain voting Tory in same place in Yorkshire since birth. It’s a Tory constituency. Truth is his consistent views no longer majority in his local party let alone the whole North, nor the whole North Labour before Boris came along.

    Plenty of poor judgement in your post Roger you need to defend. You should be grown up enough to concede at least some of this.

    What’s going on in your avatar? Is it date rape?
    The budget could only be described as smart if it had been ghosted by Rachel Reeves. I don't know how long you've been a Lib Dem but I'd keep it under your hat if I were you or people might mistake you for a fifth columnist
    You really know how to raise the stakes in a social media flame war Roger. 😆 I’ve been called a bot lots of times, and Farooq claimed only last week I’m not real just a figment of Leon’s washed up Id. 🤢But in one day you have called me a fifth column and suggested I am nearly as bad a tipster as you. Key facts speak for themselves.
    The only things I have ever voted is Libdem and count Binface.
    All my family and my girlfriend are solid conservatives.
    As I told Farooq, the Lib Dems have my vote going forward, especially with Boris in charge of Tory’s. But as I also told Farooq, not every Libdem breaks to labour in a forced Tory or Labour choice. If given that choice today, I would say don’t know. Fortunately though I can carry on voting Libdem not have to make that choice. If Tory’s get taken over by proper conservatives once again, in a forced choice I would say Conservative, because atheist anti monarchy anti nuclear deterrent anti NATO socialist Labour is student politics, and they are controlled by lefty union baron money, so are not for me.

    Now as for tipping. I called Shropshire North right and made money, despite having to wear a tin hat on here two months from the vote for placing that bet. On the night I redecorated the lounge with 🤮 over celebrating the win. After Christmas (thanks to my Dad) I tipped the attack to remove big dog, that nearly worked, and thanks to my Dad explained it was not going to happen just when everyone seemed convinced themselves it would, and TSE gave me a ban based on that. I am on Tugenhart and Harper at long odds for next Tory leader. I explained weeks ago why Macron has already lost (he sealed his own fate in 2014). That’s a key point of all my tips, I give analysis as to why I think it. Even with the horses I share analysis why. Does six wins from 16 Cheltenham tips make me sites worst tipster? In one Saturday February I tipped 3 wins from 4 at very long odds and made myself a fair bit of spending money, to share is to care so I am pleased I shared them here. In the morning I will not only tip the Grand National winner but the horse that finishes second.

    Why do you regard me as your enemy Roger? What is wrong with your judgement!
    I don't. I don't take my posts too seriously so I'm sorry if you do. Fortunately or unfortunately there are posters here who are ridiculously knowledgable about all sorts of things not least politics. To confidently predict anything on here you have to be reasonably certain or at least have good reason for your prediction. I enjoy your posts as it happens though from what I've seen I wouldn't rush down to the book makers on one of your tips.

    But apologies I've been offensive. It wasn't intended.

    My avatar is a painting by Christian Furr who I like at rhe moment. My previous one was a Helmut Newton which I wish I'd taken. Unfortunately cropped to fit the format here
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949

    Scott_xP said:

    NOTE: this is what the US government website says about leaving the US when you have a Green Card use: 👀 https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1512455945225396225 https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1512457211368427525/photo/1

    So he had one as an MP?
    Yes. But remember Boris had US citizenship whilst Mayor and MP.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/08/boris-johnson-renounces-us-citizenship-record-2016-uk-foreign-secretary
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    Scott_xP said:

    NOTE: this is what the US government website says about leaving the US when you have a Green Card use: 👀 https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1512455945225396225 https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1512457211368427525/photo/1

    So he had one as an MP?
    Yes. But remember Boris had US citizenship whilst Mayor and MP.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/08/boris-johnson-renounces-us-citizenship-record-2016-uk-foreign-secretary
    There’s no specific restriction, like in Australia. I suspect there’s a number of dual-national MPs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson in London
    Le Pen in Paris
    Trump in Washington
    Putin smiling in Moscow

    What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.

    But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?

    Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.
    And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".
    People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.
    Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.
    Well, social media has grown.
    Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
    Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.
    And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.
    Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
    Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...
    I mean, no.
    The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
    The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
    But Trump did after he lost to Biden.

    There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
    Far too sensible. Let's pretend the actions have been equivalent instead.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    Has Boris just chucked Rishi Sunak under the 253 to Archway?


    “Rishi Sunak ADMITS he had US green card until a few months ago as PM reveals he’d no idea Chancellor’s wife was non-dom:”

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1512464644002271250?s=21&t=lA90o_js-H_-RsuuYDPt9A
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,151
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?

    I doubt it, not least because if the Ukrainians are giving them a hammering, imagine what some US made jets and drones could do.
    Three days of unrestrained US attacks on Russian troops and equipment in and around Ukraine probably would result in a Russian nuclear response, as there would be no significant Russian military left this side of the Urals.

    If NATO does ever get involved directly, I think they'll be very cautious not to be too effective.
    Just imagining a couple of B1B loads of BLU-108 on those road bound convoys......
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    JohnO said:

    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

    HYUFD?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    edited April 2022
    Pretty sure that in English-speaking countries the current situation in Ukraine would have seriously damaged the electoral prospects of a candidate like Le Pen. Just shows how the French do things differently.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited April 2022
    Can't say I expected Paul Mason of all people to be taking Corbyn to task on the StW nonsense. It's pretty bitter in its sarcasm, and noting the dishonesty of pretending others (bar Saint Corbyn) want to attack Russia.

    All wars are bad. Fine. How do we stop this one? Here's JC's answer... "political pressure on Russia". How? Sanctions? StW is against sanctions. A demo? StW has not joined a single pro-Ukrainian demo in London apart from its own, desultory march

    And honestly, for a frontline politician to say "get peace to get Russian forces out of Ukraine" - without specifying the terms on which peace should be made is just waffle: a sixth form politics essay would fail...

    So let's be clear what this article is doing. There's nothing massively objectionable amid the platitudes. It's a genuinely-held position of irrelevance, but its function is to defend a bunch of genocide deniers and Putin proxies


    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1512374800618041346?s=20&t=1RNEJ7w5Fgo7hPb5cFQFHA

    That said, amusing though it is it is positive we can momentarily note he is an irrelevance and then move on.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,137

    JohnO said:

    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

    So you are under serious attack from the Lib Dems according to your local conservative mp?

    https://www.libdemvoice.org/dominic-raab-blue-wall-under-serious-attack-from-the-lib-dems-70309.html

    Can't really say at this stage. Last May the LDs seriously underperformed failing to gain a County seat that was highly vulnerable. However, they did make a gain (having thrown everything at it) in June.

    In my own patch, the LibDems have never been strong and their candidate doesn't live in the ward or close to it. But in elections, you never can tell, so I'm not predicting the outcome!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
    This chap, potentially:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr
    Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

    ‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

    Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

    image
    The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women


    I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

    https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

    My lord. That is incredible but also - again - terrifying. 3 minutes of thinking through the implications of this gets you to several scary places. The perfect “inpainting” means you can put a real human in any faked visual situation and it will look 100% convincing.

    And the future for most human artists ain’t looking great

    There is apparently another new big neural network out there, as well

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,137
    kjh said:

    JohnO said:

    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

    Good luck, even though you are the opposition. It only seems a year or two ago you posted the really funny comment on who to vote for in your ward. Are you on both Borough and County or am I confused.
    Thanks and just back from delivering My Grand Appeal To The Electors! I'm currently a County Councillor but am seeking election to the Borough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
    This chap, potentially:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr
    Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

    ‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

    Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

    image
    The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women


    I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

    https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

    You fool, we'll be hearing about it for weeks now!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
    This chap, potentially:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr
    Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

    ‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

    Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

    image
    The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women


    I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

    https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

    My lord. That is incredible but also - again - terrifying. 3 minutes of thinking through the implications of this gets you to several scary places. The perfect “inpainting” means you can put a real human in any faked visual situation and it will look 100% convincing.

    And the future for most human artists ain’t looking great

    There is apparently another new big neural network out there, as well

    I am currently playing with a rival implementation of DALLE, its very good, the comprehension has seen a big step up. Text to video / video editting and text to 3d is coming along nicely as well.

    Like a lot of these things, it won't replace humans, it is going augment their roles e.g. graphic design wants to knock up 10 different versions of a logo, you can use these things of AIs, feed it with your base idea and let it create a wide variety of variants.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    France, Harris Interactive poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 27% (+0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 24% (+1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 18% (+1)
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 8.5% (-1)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 8% (-1.5)


    +/- vs. 1-4 April 2022

    Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,889

    France, Harris Interactive poll:

    Presidential run-off

    Macron (EC-RE): 51.5%
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 48.5%

    Macron (EC-RE): 57% (-1)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 43% (+1)


    +/- vs. 1-4 April 2022

    Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2022
    Sample size: 1,889
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NOTE: this is what the US government website says about leaving the US when you have a Green Card use: 👀 https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1512455945225396225 https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1512457211368427525/photo/1

    So he had one as an MP?
    Yes. But remember Boris had US citizenship whilst Mayor and MP.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/08/boris-johnson-renounces-us-citizenship-record-2016-uk-foreign-secretary
    There’s no specific restriction, like in Australia. I suspect there’s a number of dual-national MPs.
    You don't even need to hold British Citizenship to be an MP depending on where you come from.

    The Australian example did reveal the looseness of some countries citizenship laws though, intentionally so, with some people not even realising they were dual.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    edited April 2022

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
    This chap, potentially:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr
    Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

    ‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

    Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

    image
    The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women


    I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

    https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

    It's a very good demo
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,137

    JohnO said:

    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

    So how do you rate your chances, John?

    Assuming that you a) pay for your own wallpaper; and b) do NOT take Farage-HFUYD line that NATO is to blame for provoking Putin.
    Thanks and fairly reasonable without descending into hubris and we all know what follows that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    JohnO said:

    kjh said:

    JohnO said:

    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

    Good luck, even though you are the opposition. It only seems a year or two ago you posted the really funny comment on who to vote for in your ward. Are you on both Borough and County or am I confused.
    Thanks and just back from delivering My Grand Appeal To The Electors! I'm currently a County Councillor but am seeking election to the Borough.
    I would welcome a missive from a candidate which was entitled their Grand Appeal to the Electors. Better than a fake newspaper.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited April 2022
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
    This chap, potentially:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr
    Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

    ‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

    Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

    image
    The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women


    I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

    https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

    You fool, we'll be hearing about it for weeks now!
    Honestly, I am surprised Leon hasn't found it already. It has been widely reported.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637
    This same week Google released PaLM, another language model, which successfully decodes and explains jokes, better than most humans


    “Google's new language model AI PaLM shows some incredible reasoning capability, and cause and effect understanding. storage.googleapis.com/pathways-langu…

    https://twitter.com/torkelo/status/1511614854519476227?s=21&t=6gZ7Fd88MzOMjuPaxF4j8Q
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,036
    Leon said:

    Has Boris just chucked Rishi Sunak under the 253 to Archway?


    “Rishi Sunak ADMITS he had US green card until a few months ago as PM reveals he’d no idea Chancellor’s wife was non-dom:”

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1512464644002271250?s=21&t=lA90o_js-H_-RsuuYDPt9A

    Who knew that when Brexiteer Sunak said "we hold all the cards" he meant it so literally?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    Seriously. This means 98% of working artists have just become unemployable

    They aren’t as good as this, and DALLE does it all for free and in a trillion different styles and instantaneously
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    Roger said:

    JohnO said:

    So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?

    HYUFD?
    No, I am not up for election this year. Though good luck to John O and David H in their campaigns
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    Not a great day for the more talented Boris. Here's one I shot earlier in the South of France....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP-FqtPFSV0
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,637

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:

    What’s @Roger ’s new avatar all about?

    ✋ I asked him earlier if his old one was a date rape scene from a movie. I really like this new one, with the man thinking
    Man City evens, Liverpool at 12/5 and the draw at 13/5. Liverpool the value bet there surely.
    This chap, potentially:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Furr
    Wow. Never checked out Furrs stuff before, apart from Queen. How come I haven’t?

    ‘The goal is to make life itself a work of Art’ – Henry Miller. Great quote 👍🏻

    Hold on. The mirror isn’t giving up a true image? Is it even same person?

    image
    The artist, I believe, is subtly referencing Manet’s Bar at the Folies Bergere - with its famously “wrong” reflection in the mirror, and its commentary on the male gaze vis a vis seductive women


    I know how much you love GPT-3....I presume you are aware of OpenAI latest release, DALLE-2.... text to image generator.

    https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1511707245536428034?s=20&t=qSe9JzR1iJ25SKY50k9g9Q

    You fool, we'll be hearing about it for weeks now!
    Honestly, I am surprised Leon hasn't found it already. It has been widely reported.
    I’ve been wandering the ruins of Ephesus!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,327

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?

    I doubt it, not least because if the Ukrainians are giving them a hammering, imagine what some US made jets and drones could do.
    Three days of unrestrained US attacks on Russian troops and equipment in and around Ukraine probably would result in a Russian nuclear response, as there would be no significant Russian military left this side of the Urals.

    If NATO does ever get involved directly, I think they'll be very cautious not to be too effective.
    Just imagining a couple of B1B loads of BLU-108 on those road bound convoys......
    Or even a few Warthogs flying down the road blazing their cannons.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,151
    Andy_JS said:

    Pretty sure that in English-speaking countries the current situation in Ukraine would have seriously damaged the electoral prospects of a candidate like Le Pen. Just shows how the French do things differently.

    The pitch from Le Pen & Co. is that the elites are looking after themselves, keeping the Poor as pets, and forgetting about the Middle and the Low. Who they despise anyway.

    So Macron working hard on foreign affairs plays to that - "While we are talking about the cost of bread....."
This discussion has been closed.