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No 10 won’t be holding any parties after seeing this poll – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    Carnyx said:

    Nationalista in Spain/Catalonia = right winger like you. The word you want is, presumably, Independista.
    How very dare you!
    HYUFD is a proud Britpat, his allegiance to the flag, Queen, church and nation is the good kind made up of sugar and spice and all things nice, with hardly any truncheoning of grannies.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,530
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    Yes, someone pays for things like Covid tests when they are free.

    That doesn't mean they aren't free. Why are you struggling with this? If you don't pay for something, it's free. It's really that simple. You don't need to put quotes around the word, that's just what the word means.

    When your ideology forces you to stop using words normally, you have a problem. When you start to tell people that they should stop using words normally, we all have a problem.
    Because they are not free.

    You might argue that they are 'free at the point of use' although paid for at a different time and by a different person.

    But its the denial of the reality that goods and services have to be paid for which underlies many of our current problems.

    And leads to cognitive dissonance of people condemning the government for spending so much on its testing and then condemning the government for not providing 'free' covid tests.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022

    Hearing very good things about it, but not yet seen.

    BTW, watched Ken Branagh's "Death on the Nile" last night. Just, why, Ken, why? Everything about it was far inferior to the David Suchet TV version of 2004.

    The only interesting thing was a very nuanced performance by Russell Brand as the Doctor.

    Give it a miss.
    Wasn't there some huge issue behind that? One of the main actors got "cancelled"* and they had to edit around it? * was Armie Hammer

    The Slow Horses are part of a series of 7 books, so if Apple+ can keep it together they are going to have a lot of material.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,325
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/03/sunaks-5m-santa-monica-flat-offers-sun-sea-and-a-pet-spa

    I see the Goldman Sachs Elf has chosen Easter in SoCal over, er, Northallerton.

    I remember Malcolm Tucker once saying something to the effect of the voters don't even want their politicians to have a comfortable chair so Sunaks 1% lifestyle and his lack of any desire to reign it in is a very serious negative for him that will be exploited.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    Not good.
    A huge explosion occurred in #Baku, the capital of #Azerbaijan.

    There are dozens of dead and wounded.

    https://twitter.com/TRintheworld/status/1510399154694107136
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    "Legend" is much misused.

    But...Kangaroo Guy has now gone back with his people carrier to get the tapirs out the zoo.

    Legend.

    https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1510318514174939142

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    Dura_Ace said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/03/sunaks-5m-santa-monica-flat-offers-sun-sea-and-a-pet-spa

    I see the Goldman Sachs Elf has chosen Easter in SoCal over, er, Northallerton.

    I remember Malcolm Tucker once saying something to the effect of the voters don't even want their politicians to have a comfortable chair so Sunaks 1% lifestyle and his lack of any desire to reign it in is a very serious negative for him that will be exploited.

    Unlike you - rein, not reign, surely? Unless you think Sunak will replace Liz for some reason?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited April 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/03/sunaks-5m-santa-monica-flat-offers-sun-sea-and-a-pet-spa

    I see the Goldman Sachs Elf has chosen Easter in SoCal over, er, Northallerton.

    I remember Malcolm Tucker once saying something to the effect of the voters don't even want their politicians to have a comfortable chair so Sunaks 1% lifestyle and his lack of any desire to reign it in is a very serious negative for him that will be exploited.

    Hmm ... this calls for a Deltic movie for Sandy Rentool, and Sunak too of course

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYCyOQAyAp8
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dura_Ace said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/03/sunaks-5m-santa-monica-flat-offers-sun-sea-and-a-pet-spa

    I see the Goldman Sachs Elf has chosen Easter in SoCal over, er, Northallerton.

    I remember Malcolm Tucker once saying something to the effect of the voters don't even want their politicians to have a comfortable chair so Sunaks 1% lifestyle and his lack of any desire to reign it in is a very serious negative for him that will be exploited.

    Rein it in, and I think people expect the rich and famous to be both rich, and famous. It's prolly quite clever of him to fuck off stateside and not rub it in our faces over here. He's a busted flush, but not for that reason.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,325

    Unlike you - rein, not reign, surely? Unless you think Sunak will replace Liz for some reason?
    Trucking auto-erect...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    If there were riots by Nationalists then of course riot police would have to be used and arrests made as happened in Spain with Catalan Nationalists. Otherwise they would have in effect lost control of Scotland and Sturgeon would try and force through the result, maybe even declaring UDI, even if the UK government ignored it
    “lost control of Scotland”

    Thanks for that wee gem. Certainly have me a chuckle.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    P&O Ferries are still not operating any ferries across the English Channel, or the North Channel, and one of their scheduled ferries is cancelled on the North Sea route.

    This is two-and-a-half weeks on from the sackings on March 17th.

    Will they be able to restore services before the end of what would have been the statutory consultation period?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344

    Talking of tv, Slow Horses on Apple+ starring Gary Oldman, seems very promising. Its the sort of show that would be at home on the BBC.

    Yeah, I might resuscitate my Apple+ subscription just for that going on reviews. Tbf I don't the BBC could afford Gary Oldman and Kristin Scott Thomas, that would probably be the budget for several years of pishy cookery programmes blown.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Show me one poster who claims to be a 'military genius'.

    Mostly we just have people trying to make sense of a complex situation. The great thing about this site is often when someone gets something wrong, someone with more knowledge pops up to politely correct them. And we all learn.
    We must be reading different blogs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    Given the evidence of all the war crimes coming out of towns outside of Kyiv, I fear how bad Mariupol will be. Not only have the Russians been there from the start, the Chechens are there too and their reputation is not of ones who worry about human rights of civilians.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,324
    Nigelb said:

    .

    I think Robert made just this point last year, well before they invaded Ukraine, when he said Russia didn’t represent much of a threat anymore because it was economically insignificant.

    You’re right that the invasion will be massively costly, perhaps disastrous for Russia. But they still retain the military capacity to do great damage, not to mention the planet’s largest nuclear arsenal.

    Oil revenues probably give them another decade at least where they are effectively immune to outside persuasion by economic means, even if sanctions can wreak economic damage.

    It could become a dependency of China, in a similar manner to North Korea. That’s not the same thing as a vassal.
    Also, if gas supplies do get cut off to European industry, the economic damage would be quite significant not just to Europe, but to the world. Germany alone was 7.8% of worldwide exports (by value, 2020). There's bound to be certain kinds of industrial goods, chemicals (don't know what exactly) where German/European production stopping would cause knock-on effects - plus the generally bad effect a further European recession would have.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    During my time on here someone said you must be mentally ill to want to change your sex. That's transphobic.
    I'm not saying transphobia is rife, but it happens.
    That is the official line: gender dysphoria is a medically diagnoseable, treatable ailment. It is even in DSM-5.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,325
    IshmaelZ said:

    Rein it in, and I think people expect the rich and famous to be both rich, and famous. It's prolly quite clever of him to fuck off stateside and not rub it in our faces over here. He's a busted flush, but not for that reason.
    Shades of Sunny Jim flaunting his hairy moobs in Guadeloupe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    There is Labour support for increased arms supplies.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1510545951160741891
    I’m not going to post photos of the Russian atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere in Ukraine but they are surely reason enough for 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 and NATO to provide tanks and other offensive weaponry to 🇺🇦 ? We cannot stand by and pretend we haven’t seen the genocidal war crimes.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344

    P&O Ferries are still not operating any ferries across the English Channel, or the North Channel, and one of their scheduled ferries is cancelled on the North Sea route.

    This is two-and-a-half weeks on from the sackings on March 17th.

    Will they be able to restore services before the end of what would have been the statutory consultation period?

    Will the length of the queue at Dover surpass that of the infamous military column outside Kyiv?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022

    Yeah, I might resuscitate my Apple+ subscription just for that going on reviews. Tbf I don't the BBC could afford Gary Oldman and Kristin Scott Thomas, that would probably be the budget for several years of pishy cookery programmes blown.
    The two main actors are far less famous (and thus I imagine affordable). Gary Oldman is good, but would hope you could find somebody else play an alcoholic washed up desk jockey competently.

    No idea how much Apple+ spent on this show, but it definitely isn't on par with the likes of Foundation, where every second was $10,000s worth of VFX shots. It definitely could be made without spending the earth on it. Its about a load of spies who work out a rundown office in the back streets of London, no need for James Bond style locations and special effects.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    The paratroop raid on the airport might conceivably have succeeded had not Ukraine been prepared.
    9 Jan'22: 🇺🇲 General Mingus attempts to dissuade Russia from invading, saying it would be a quagmire, to no reaction
    🔹European leaders don't believe 🇺🇲 Intel re: invasion
    🔹mid-Jan'22: CIA director Burns warns Zelenskyy in Kyiv that 🇷🇺 would attempt to seize Hostomel airfield

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1510575951826067461

    The plan wasn’t quite as ridiculous as it now seems.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539

    FFS, can't you just let go? We get that you don't like HYUFD's views. I'm not so keen on most (or all?) of them, but it doesn't bother me, and the site would be poorer without him.

    As it happens, there are a small number of other posters whose views I do find really obnoxious. Guess what? Nobody would know. Why? Because I just ignore them.
    Ok. And I agree it would be poorer without them. And I don't dislike him, just his views and to be honest the ignorance. But point taken.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Talking of tv, Slow Horses on Apple+ starring Gary Oldman, seems very promising. Its the sort of show that would be at home on the BBC.

    Another one from an ex-BBC production house bought up by a foreign company licencing to a different foreign company.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I read it partly as an attempt at dark humour TBH and people need to lighten up a bit about that. On the other hand he does take the British Monarchy, Northern Irish loyalism and arguably religion far too seriously IMO.

    Overall he is still a much better and more pleasant poster than others on here and still gives a relatively dispassionate view of Lab, Con and LD electoral fortunes.
    Dispassionate you say? I’ve seen him try to ramp one point increases in SCon VI in the teens. And flippantly dismiss 50%+ scores for opponents. He is incapable of being dispassionate about England’s satellite states.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344

    The two main actors are far less famous (and thus I imagine affordable). Gary Oldman is good, but would hope you could find somebody else play an alcoholic washed up desk jockey competently.

    No idea how much Apple+ spent on this show, but it definitely isn't on par with the likes of Foundation, where every second was $100,000s worth of VFX shots. It definitely could be made without spending the earth on it. Its about a load of spies who work out a rundown office in the back streets of London.
    Fair point, I would imagine the budget, stars excepted, would be below Killing Eve which I've stopped watching due to its flogged dead equine status.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Another one from an ex-BBC production house bought up by a foreign company licencing to a different foreign company.
    See-Saw Films is the credited production house. I can't see any direct info that it was BBC from the bio. It was written by Will Smith, who was in (wrote some of) the Thick of It / Veep.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    Taz said:
    Not too surprising considering the widespread law-breaking in Downing St.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842

    It's an interesting question, and a useful analogy. The 1970s marked the point at which the post-war economic model started to fail. Arguably the current period marks the point at which the Thatcherite economic model's failures are becoming manifest. I suspect that the answer to these failings won't me 'more Thatcherism', but it won't be a return to post-war state socialism either.
    There is one quick way of solving some of our economic woes of course, but it won't happen because the government can't admit that its central policy is a failure, even though that is obvious to any neutral observer.
    Well don't keep us in suspenders; what do you think it is?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    IshmaelZ said:

    I believe Nick actually is a communist? Or certainly former communist?
    I was a (Euro)communist in my teens, which, sadly, are more than 50 years astern. I've chosen to be honest about it, but equally I think people should accept what I am now - left-wing Labour by preference but a bias to compromise and split differences. HYUFD is right that I've had to put up with a certain amount of weird stuff, including recently being an agent of Russia or China, though after a couple of days the poster apologised. That has sensitised me to the risks of personal attacks.

    Essentially I think people's *views* are fair game (it would be perfectly OK to say someone's views look like fascism or stalinism or indeed (omigod) conservatism, but we waste our time labelling each other as fascists, trots, spies, etc. Attack the idea, not the bloke who has fallen for it.



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Nigelb said:

    The paratroop raid on the airport might conceivably have succeeded had not Ukraine been prepared.
    9 Jan'22: 🇺🇲 General Mingus attempts to dissuade Russia from invading, saying it would be a quagmire, to no reaction
    🔹European leaders don't believe 🇺🇲 Intel re: invasion
    🔹mid-Jan'22: CIA director Burns warns Zelenskyy in Kyiv that 🇷🇺 would attempt to seize Hostomel airfield

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1510575951826067461

    The plan wasn’t quite as ridiculous as it now seems.

    Yes, IMO a lot of praise should go to the UK and US intelligence services who seemed very on-the-ball with their warnings about the oncoming onslaught.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Nigelb said:

    There is Labour support for increased arms supplies.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1510545951160741891
    I’m not going to post photos of the Russian atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere in Ukraine but they are surely reason enough for 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 and NATO to provide tanks and other offensive weaponry to 🇺🇦 ? We cannot stand by and pretend we haven’t seen the genocidal war crimes.

    The US and unnamed countries (Poland) are said to be prepping a transfer of T-72 tanks to Ukraine. I think it's also time for us to lend Poland the money to buy our tranche 1 Typhoons (which are being taken out of service in 2025, but could have their operational life extended for an extra 10 years) so they can give Ukraine their old MiGs.

    We should give them the tools to push the Russians out of their country and its also time to to turn the gas imports off and fuck the consequences. The war crimes being committed by the Russian regime are horrific and yet countries allied to Ukraine are spending billions of dollars per week propping up the Russians.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    IshmaelZ said:

    That is the official line: gender dysphoria is a medically diagnoseable, treatable ailment. It is even in DSM-5.
    Until the 1970s so was homosexuality.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022

    Yes, IMO a lot of praise should go to the UK and US intelligence services who seemed very on-the-ball with their warnings about the oncoming onslaught.
    I don't just think the prior warnings, the level of knowledge that the troops on the ground, especially the SoF have, points to them getting continued assistance.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    See-Saw Films is the credited production house. I can't see any direct info that it was BBC from the bio. It was written by Will Smith, who was in (wrote some of) the Thick of It / Veep.
    There's quite a few ex-BBC people aiui.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany is not pulling any punches:

    https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1510540816187539459

    Germany's 'Never Again' is bullshit. Pure hypocrisy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    kinabalu said:

    Classic 'nice but dim' posho. I'd welcome him back.
    Never struck me as dim. And in some areas very well informed. I suspect your prejudice is showing.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539

    I was a (Euro)communist in my teens, which, sadly, are more than 50 years astern. I've chosen to be honest about it, but equally I think people should accept what I am now - left-wing Labour by preference but a bias to compromise and split differences. HYUFD is right that I've had to put up with a certain amount of weird stuff, including recently being an agent of Russia or China, though after a couple of days the poster apologised. That has sensitised me to the risks of personal attacks.

    Essentially I think people's *views* are fair game (it would be perfectly OK to say someone's views look like fascism or stalinism or indeed (omigod) conservatism, but we waste our time labelling each other as fascists, trots, spies, etc. Attack the idea, not the bloke who has fallen for it.



    I always consider your views to be centred in commonsense on most topics. Our political views are not the same. I have never voted Labour, but you always seem to take a sensible view on most matters that span political views.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    The two main actors are far less famous (and thus I imagine affordable). Gary Oldman is good, but would hope you could find somebody else play an alcoholic washed up desk jockey competently.

    No idea how much Apple+ spent on this show, but it definitely isn't on par with the likes of Foundation, where every second was $10,000s worth of VFX shots. It definitely could be made without spending the earth on it. Its about a load of spies who work out a rundown office in the back streets of London, no need for James Bond style locations and special effects.
    Loads of these shows are now done using the UE4 virtual stage which cuts production cost and time significantly. I'm almost certain this will have been given that it's SPE.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022
    MaxPB said:

    There's quite a few ex-BBC people aiui.
    That's not quite the same thing. Isn't tv / movies / media all a bit 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon, everybody knows everybody who has worked with / for x....nature of the business.

    I notice with UK AI start-up scene is becoming a bit like that where it isn't becoming very hard to link most to some sort of connection to DeepMinds by the same game.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    I have been an advocate of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of our strategy to reduce CO2 emissions, including for power generation and 'blue' hydrogen to decarbonise the gas grid.

    The war has made me rethink. The above approach would actually increase our natural gas consumption, due to the energy inefficiencies associated with CCS. A decarbonisation strategy that is more aligned with domestic self sufficiency in energy supply is now, in my opinion, the way we should be heading. It may well cost more, and be more disruptive (e.g., replacing everyone's gas boiler with a shitty air source heat pump), but priorities have shifted.

    So, lots of renewables, electrolytic 'green' hydrogen, energy storage, electrification.

    There is still a role for CCS, decarbonising highly emitting industries and on Energy from Waste plants, making the latter net-negative, but a much diminished role from what I have previously called for.

    If the government is to U-turn in this area, then they've got around a year to do so before final investment decisions are made. Let's see what happens...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Absolutely bizarre threader that abjectly fails to consider the clear evidence that its own charts reveal – the drop in masking is revealed preference over the nonsense people tell pollsters.

    As for the odious Heathener's early-morning rallying to the flag. I know you are a troll who preaches violence towards those who choose not to wear a mask, despite masking being entirely voluntary.

    Get this into your head: lockdowns and restrictions aren't coming back. The public won't wear it for a virus that is now statistically less dangerous than influenza.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344

    Never struck me as dim. And in some areas very well informed. I suspect your prejudice is showing.
    His insight into Glasgow people trafficking was as deep as it was wide.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Talking of tv, Slow Horses on Apple+ starring Gary Oldman, seems very promising. Its the sort of show that would be at home on the BBC.

    If it’s half as good as the books it will be great - clever concept (basically rather than go through the hassle of firing MI5 duds they ship them to dead end jobs in a crummy office in the hope & expectation that they’ll quit) and give them the boss from hell (the Oldman character). Needless to say things don’t work out as planned.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Foxy said:

    Until the 1970s so was homosexuality.
    Which gives pause for thought but both need to be analysed on their own terms. My views have been strongly influenced by Helen Joyces' book "Trans" and I'm not aware of any convincing attempt to refute her main points.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Cough, Cough

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
    The sinister antisemite Crosby was banned for life from the site several years ago.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Very disturbing thread on how Russia is further conflating the "ukr is run by Nazis" into a whole new terror and justification for war and genocide. Bleak.

    Greg Yudin
    @YudinGreg
    ·
    16m
    It follows that Nazism is an external enemy that should be destroyed at any cost. The initial view was that Nazis have seized power in Ukraine, while ordinary Ukrainians are just some sort of Russians with silly ideas about their identity and a ridiculous language 3/11

    Greg Yudin
    @YudinGreg
    ·
    16m
    This meant “de-nazification” could be completed through regime change & Ukrainians should be liberated. Obviously, this conception failed when Ukrainians started resisting bravely. A natural conclusion from that: Ukrainians turned out to be deeply infected by Nazism 4/11



    https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1510577043829895175

    He concludes "I am afraid the worst thing are yet to follow."

    ====

    I fear this war only ends if Putin is removed from power one way or the other.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Loads of these shows are now done using the UE4 virtual stage which cuts production cost and time significantly. I'm almost certain this will have been given that it's SPE.
    Even with virtual stage, my understanding is Foundation was still very expensive to make, $50+ million.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    IshmaelZ said:

    Naah, gonna have to show you thee red card there. Who actualy are you talking about? Because nobody who makes that accusation ever makes it good. Nobody here is "anti trans," that's just a hypothetical hate category, like saboteurs in Stalin's Russia. There's a certain amount of brutish simplicity in my proposed NO DICK spaces, but that doesn't make the proposal wrong.

    The fact that I think the UK anti-apartheid movement was a load of posturing virtue-signalling wankers does not, while I am at it, mean that I am secretly in favour of racial segregation.
    There's some rather dire contributions but it doesn't mean they are driven by transphobia (as fairly defined). And I'm not up for making such an accusation against individual posters. I could (and I could prove it to an objective and informed audience beyond reasonable doubt) but it does no good. It'd just make people even less likely to give a hearing to my stuff on the issue.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    edited April 2022

    Oryx now has Russia losing 2,300 confirmed pieces of kit, including 395 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    yes, will probably pass 400 by end of day, and worth noting that theses are the confirmed losses of Russian tanks, verified by photo, there are probably a lot more destroyed that we don't have photos of and a lot damaged that have been pulled back maybe over the boarder to be repaired. I cant find today numbers but Ukraine is clamming to have destroyed over 650 tanks a few days ago, and I think their number is credible.

    Breakdown of Russian tanks losses on Oryx, (and the number of active and reserve tanks according to Wikipedia)

    T64 - 12 (meant to be in reserve only)
    T72 - 235 (2,300 Active and 7,000 R)
    T80 - 86 (480 A and 4000 R)
    T90 - 17 (435 A and 200 R)
    Unidentified: - 47

    Russia's' most modern tank the T14 does not seem to be present in Ukraine, possibly because there are still sorting out teething troubles with it, or maybe because there don't what to loess one and have it captured and given to the USA.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    I have been an advocate of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of our strategy to reduce CO2 emissions, including for power generation and 'blue' hydrogen to decarbonise the gas grid.

    The war has made me rethink. The above approach would actually increase our natural gas consumption, due to the energy inefficiencies associated with CCS. A decarbonisation strategy that is more aligned with domestic self sufficiency in energy supply is now, in my opinion, the way we should be heading. It may well cost more, and be more disruptive (e.g., replacing everyone's gas boiler with a shitty air source heat pump), but priorities have shifted.

    So, lots of renewables, electrolytic 'green' hydrogen, energy storage, electrification.

    There is still a role for CCS, decarbonising highly emitting industries and on Energy from Waste plants, making the latter net-negative, but a much diminished role from what I have previously called for.

    If the government is to U-turn in this area, then they've got around a year to do so before final investment decisions are made. Let's see what happens...

    An interesting post. I've always been very bearish about CCS, and I know we've discussed it previously. It has a minor role in very specific circumstances (as you say above), but I really do not see it as a significant contributor to a 'solution' to the crisis.

    Energy storage is key. Many moons ago on here, I suggested an X-Prize style competition by the government, offering massive incentives to develop energy storage. It might be a little too late for that now, but it is the missing link - and not an easy one to fill.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022


    If it’s half as good as the books it will be great - clever concept (basically rather than go through the hassle of firing MI5 duds they ship them to dead end jobs in a crummy office in the hope & expectation that they’ll quit) and give them the boss from hell (the Oldman character). Needless to say things don’t work out as planned.
    I watched the first two episodes back to back and I enjoyed it. It could have easily gone too far with the schtick of the losers, but so far its walked the line between using the fact they are weirdo losers for amusing quips, while still sticking to the premise there is a genuine danger that needs to be tackled.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    I have been an advocate of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of our strategy to reduce CO2 emissions, including for power generation and 'blue' hydrogen to decarbonise the gas grid.

    The war has made me rethink. The above approach would actually increase our natural gas consumption, due to the energy inefficiencies associated with CCS. A decarbonisation strategy that is more aligned with domestic self sufficiency in energy supply is now, in my opinion, the way we should be heading. It may well cost more, and be more disruptive (e.g., replacing everyone's gas boiler with a shitty air source heat pump), but priorities have shifted.

    So, lots of renewables, electrolytic 'green' hydrogen, energy storage, electrification.

    There is still a role for CCS, decarbonising highly emitting industries and on Energy from Waste plants, making the latter net-negative, but a much diminished role from what I have previously called for.

    If the government is to U-turn in this area, then they've got around a year to do so before final investment decisions are made. Let's see what happens...

    Extracting more of our own gas also fits the bill.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    BigRich said:

    yes, will probably pass 400 by end of day, and worth noting that theses are the confirmed losses of Russian tanks, verified by photo, there are probably a lot more destroyed that we don't have photos of and a lot damaged that have been pulled back maybe over the boarder to be repaired. I cant find today numbers but Ukraine is clamming to have destroyed over 650 tanks a few days ago, and I think their number is credible.

    Breakdown of Russian tanks losses on Oryx, (and the number of active and reserve tanks according to Wikipedia)

    T64 - 12 (meant to be in reserve only)
    T72 - 235 (2,300 Active and 7,000 R)
    T80 - 86 (480 A and 4000 R)
    T90 - 17 (435 A and 200 R)
    Unidentified: - 47

    Russia's' most modern tank the T14 does not seem to be present in Ukraine, possibly because there are still sorting out teething troubles with it, or maybe because there don't what to loess one and have it captured and given to the USA.
    I think they lost a T14 in Syria, which gave them significant concerns.

    I'd also treat the 'reserve' numbers with a little scepticism. I bet only 1 in 10 of the reserve can be made to work within a day; 2 in 10 in a week. Reserves are the first thing where funding is cut. And tanks need trained crews.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022
    UK bottler has a few weeks' supply left
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60941091

    Excessive globalisation / consolidation strikes again. 80% of the global supply of sunflower oil comes out of Russia and Ukraine. For UK market, 75% of supply is packed by a single company.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    UK bottler has a few weeks' supply left
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60941091

    Excessive globalisation / consolidation strikes again. 80% of the global supply of sunflower oil comes out of Russia and Ukraine. For UK market, 75% of supply is packed by a single company.

    Just In Time is brilliant during 'normal' times. AS the 2011 Japanese earthquake, or Covid, or the chip shortage, or this event show: JIT is a git when small things fail.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    edited April 2022

    Which gives pause for thought but both need to be analysed on their own terms. My views have been strongly influenced by Helen Joyces' book "Trans" and I'm not aware of any convincing attempt to refute her main points.
    It is fundamental to the Trans debate whether it is a pathological state (gender dysphoria) or whether a normal variation to be accommodated by self actualisation.

    In my mind (I am not a psychiatrist) a pathological mental state is one causing psychological, emotional or social harm to an individual or others.

    As such some mental illnesses are caused by society and can be depathologised by changes in society. Homosexuality is an example of this, but there are others, such as promiscuity or atheism, at least in the UK. In other countries things may be different.

    So a key issue in the Trans debate is whether society can accommodate Trans people as they want to be, or whether other societal impacts from this are too important.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022

    Just In Time is brilliant during 'normal' times. AS the 2011 Japanese earthquake, or Covid, or the chip shortage, or this event show: JIT is a git when small things fail.
    Its not just JIT, it is the shear scale of the centralisation / near monopolies that have formed across practically every industry. Not only is there no resilience if there is a near single point of failure, but the idea of a free market fails e.g.

    How 4 companies control the beef industry
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_hCLjUrK1E
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    An interesting post. I've always been very bearish about CCS, and I know we've discussed it previously. It has a minor role in very specific circumstances (as you say above), but I really do not see it as a significant contributor to a 'solution' to the crisis.

    Energy storage is key. Many moons ago on here, I suggested an X-Prize style competition by the government, offering massive incentives to develop energy storage. It might be a little too late for that now, but it is the missing link - and not an easy one to fill.
    We can still use green hydrogen as a storage vector. Round trip efficiency isn't great, but it would work at large scale - just like it does with natural gas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022

    The sinister antisemite Crosby was banned for life from the site several years ago.
    A very strange individual. I have numerous conversations about polling models, all very logical, taking work based upon academic literature, and it was all very interesting. Then you would see all of a sudden he would go off the reservation banging on about the Jews and the Holocaust, denying provable facts.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,931
    Foxy said:

    It is fundamental to the Trans debate whether it is a pathological state (gender dysphoria) or whether a normal variation to be accommodated by self actualisation.

    In my mind (I am not a psychiatrist) a pathological mental state is one causing psychological, emotional or social harm to an individual or others.

    As such some mental illnesses are caused by society and can be depathologised by changes in society. Homosexuality is an example of this, but there are others, such as promiscuity or atheism, at least in the UK. In other countries things may be different.

    So a key issue in the Trans debate is whether society can accommodate Trans people as they want to be, or whether other societal impacts from this are too important.
    Apologies in advance if I am reading this incorrectly, totally missing the boat and/or failing to understand your points here.

    You consider atheism a mental illness?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    An interesting post. I've always been very bearish about CCS, and I know we've discussed it previously. It has a minor role in very specific circumstances (as you say above), but I really do not see it as a significant contributor to a 'solution' to the crisis.

    Energy storage is key. Many moons ago on here, I suggested an X-Prize style competition by the government, offering massive incentives to develop energy storage. It might be a little too late for that now, but it is the missing link - and not an easy one to fill.
    The compressed air battery seems to be the winning idea at the moment. It also allows us to tap storage tanks for CO2 and put it into long term underground storage to actually move into a net negative scenario.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    We can still use green hydrogen as a storage vector. Round trip efficiency isn't great, but it would work at large scale - just like it does with natural gas.
    Yep. As with energy generation, I think storage will end up as a series of 'solutions', at different scales, probably locally distributed rather than a few big plants.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    Extracting more of our own gas also fits the bill.
    I agree that for the hydrocarbons we do consume, we should endeavour to maximise the domestic supply so long as the environmental consequences are not more damaging than the alternatives. And that should include coal.

    Saying 'no new developments' is bonkers, as long as we have ongoing demand. It is worse than virtue signalling, it is economically damaging and threatens energy security until we are weaned off fossil fuels.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    Never struck me as dim. And in some areas very well informed. I suspect your prejudice is showing.
    Lots of cliches dropped in a faux authoritative manner - is why I made that rather tart and sneaky (since he isn't here) comment.

    But yep, very well informed in some things, and often quite thoughtful, and a decent guy, is my 'better self' assessment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022
    I am coming to conclusion these people have some weird BDSM kink for being glued to things. The sort of people who would actually love Leon's flint dildo business.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10681221/Eco-activist-GLUES-hand-microphone-live-LBC-interview-morning.html
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945
    IshmaelZ said:

    That is the official line: gender dysphoria is a medically diagnoseable, treatable ailment. It is even in DSM-5.
    Not by the WHO or the NHS.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,325
    MaxPB said:



    The US and unnamed countries (Poland) are said to be prepping a transfer of T-72 tanks to Ukraine. I think it's also time for us to lend Poland the money to buy our tranche 1 Typhoons (which are being taken out of service in 2025, but could have their operational life extended for an extra 10 years) so they can give Ukraine their old MiGs.

    I've read some bonkers shit over the course of World War Z but this is a new perigee.

    The British "Tranche 1" Typhoons are at Software Block 5. A tranche is a commercial structure; it's the block which defines capability. The RAF forked the software at B5 (Change Request 193) to get austere A2G capability ahead of the other partner nations which didn't care about it. This was to enable the beautiful dream of a Typhoon to Afghanistan deployment that never happened. Instead we got the Herrick Tornado detachment which cost a million quid a week for seven years.

    So we had 53 aircraft that have no feasible upgrade route back into the main software branch. The RAF lack the expertise, will and money to support the B5 software so the aircraft are obsolete which is why they are in the "reduce to produce" process. ie scrapped for parts.

    These aircraft would be of significant net negative value to the Polish Air Force as they are colossally expensive to operate and can employ none of their existing weapons. They are also functionally inferior to the F-16s they already have and the F-35As they have on order.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539

    Just In Time is brilliant during 'normal' times. AS the 2011 Japanese earthquake, or Covid, or the chip shortage, or this event show: JIT is a git when small things fail.
    Yes good point. If I was running a huge multi national car manufacturing concern I would be using JIT, but if I had my own little factory l wouldn't risk it as the extra cost of a small amount of stock is better than the potential disaster. That might just be me being risk adverse.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    I agree that for the hydrocarbons we do consume, we should endeavour to maximise the domestic supply so long as the environmental consequences are not more damaging than the alternatives. And that should include coal.

    Saying 'no new developments' is bonkers, as long as we have ongoing demand. It is worse than virtue signalling, it is economically damaging and threatens energy security until we are weaned off fossil fuels.
    Removing coal from our energy mix was a huge environmental gain, just from air quality improvements. We should, of course, be removing all of the barriers to domestic oil and gas extraction. The idea that by eliminating domestic industries we would magically reduce demand was always ridiculous. We should never have been in this position of having huge oil and gas reserves in the UK but also being reliant on imports. Labour and the Tories have both put us in this position and it's time for grown up government to tell the green lobby to get fucked.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Foxy said:

    It is fundamental to the Trans debate whether it is a pathological state (gender dysphoria) or whether a normal variation to be accommodated by self actualisation.

    In my mind (I am not a psychiatrist) a pathological mental state is one causing psychological, emotional or social harm to an individual or others.

    As such some mental illnesses are caused by society and can be depathologised by changes in society. Homosexuality is an example of this, but there are others, such as promiscuity or atheism, at least in the UK. In other countries things may be different.

    So a key issue in the Trans debate is whether society can accommodate Trans people as they want to be, or whether other societal impacts from this are too important.
    For a whole range of practical purposes it makes little difference. Transitioning requires heavyweight medical intervention and a philosophical debate over the existence of a soul like gender identity doesn't affect that. The substantive issues are access to things currently segregated on the basis of biological sex including safe spaces, prisons and women's sport plus treatment of minors with irreversible and risky medical interventions . Another less important issue is how far elaborate changes in terminology are needed and whether short hand cultural assumptions that apply to the vast majority of the population need to be abandoned. My view is that we recognise degrees of transition by an individual in terms of access to segregated resources and activities and that biological sex is retained as a discriminator for certain things like some sports. The vast majority of individuals who transition will be able to live their lives as their chosen gender without negating the rights of others.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    Yep. As with energy generation, I think storage will end up as a series of 'solutions', at different scales, probably locally distributed rather than a few big plants.
    Very soon everyone's car will be an energy storage device. Use the remaining juice in the battery to meet the evening peak, then recharge overnight when supply would otherwise exceed demand.

    Car batteries for daily load shifting, hydrogen for seasonal load shifting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,538
    edited April 2022
    kjh said:

    Yes good point. If I was running a huge multi national car manufacturing concern I would be using JIT, but if I had my own little factory l wouldn't risk it as the extra cost of a small amount of stock is better than the potential disaster. That might just be me being risk adverse.
    Interestingly Toyota who pioneered JIT over the past few years re-evaluated this system and now actually hold stock of crucial components. For example, I believe they were stockpiling chips before COVID and it allowed them to continue production when other had to cease, because they had assessed their business to see which items could only be produced by a single vendor and those that matched this category they realised the potential breakdown if that vendor was taken offline.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Dura_Ace said:

    I've read some bonkers shit over the course of World War Z but this is a new perigee.

    The British "Tranche 1" Typhoons are at Software Block 5. A tranche is a commercial structure; it's the block which defines capability. The RAF forked the software at B5 (Change Request 193) to get austere A2G capability ahead of the other partner nations which didn't care about it. This was to enable the beautiful dream of a Typhoon to Afghanistan deployment that never happened. Instead we got the Herrick Tornado detachment which cost a million quid a week for seven years.

    So we had 53 aircraft that have no feasible upgrade route back into the main software branch. The RAF lack the expertise, will and money to support the B5 software so the aircraft are obsolete which is why they are in the "reduce to produce" process. ie scrapped for parts.

    These aircraft would be of significant net negative value to the Polish Air Force as they are colossally expensive to operate and can employ none of their existing weapons. They are also functionally inferior to the F-16s they already have and the F-35As they have on order.

    Thanks for the info.

    "no feasible upgrade route back into the main software branch"

    As someone who worked at the hardware/software level, what are the constraining factors to moving back onto the software branch? Is the hardware actually very different, and if so, it is it modularised?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    edited April 2022
    MaxPB said:

    The US and unnamed countries (Poland) are said to be prepping a transfer of T-72 tanks to Ukraine. I think it's also time for us to lend Poland the money to buy our tranche 1 Typhoons (which are being taken out of service in 2025, but could have their operational life extended for an extra 10 years) so they can give Ukraine their old MiGs.

    We should give them the tools to push the Russians out of their country and its also time to to turn the gas imports off and fuck the consequences. The war crimes being committed by the Russian regime are horrific and yet countries allied to Ukraine are spending billions of dollars per week propping up the Russians.
    Pace @Dura_Ace , the Typhoons are pretty capable missile platforms with good radar. Would be a significant upgrade for Poland - but it would also complicate thing for them if they want US F16s.
    Running two incompatible aircraft types in a similar role is a very expensive hobby.

    (edit) I see he got there first, and with better arguments.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,325
    Dura_Ace said:

    I've read some bonkers shit over the course of World War Z but this is a new perigee.

    The British "Tranche 1" Typhoons are at Software Block 5. A tranche is a commercial structure; it's the block which defines capability. The RAF forked the software at B5 (Change Request 193) to get austere A2G capability ahead of the other partner nations which didn't care about it. This was to enable the beautiful dream of a Typhoon to Afghanistan deployment that never happened. Instead we got the Herrick Tornado detachment which cost a million quid a week for seven years.

    So we had 53 aircraft that have no feasible upgrade route back into the main software branch. The RAF lack the expertise, will and money to support the B5 software so the aircraft are obsolete which is why they are in the "reduce to produce" process. ie scrapped for parts.

    These aircraft would be of significant net negative value to the Polish Air Force as they are colossally expensive to operate and can employ none of their existing weapons. They are also functionally inferior to the F-16s they already have and the F-35As they have on order.

    Correction: they could use the Polish AIM-120C but they are bringing less to the fight than a Block 52 F-16C carrying the same weapon.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Dura_Ace said:

    I've read some bonkers shit over the course of World War Z but this is a new perigee.

    The British "Tranche 1" Typhoons are at Software Block 5. A tranche is a commercial structure; it's the block which defines capability. The RAF forked the software at B5 (Change Request 193) to get austere A2G capability ahead of the other partner nations which didn't care about it. This was to enable the beautiful dream of a Typhoon to Afghanistan deployment that never happened. Instead we got the Herrick Tornado detachment which cost a million quid a week for seven years.

    So we had 53 aircraft that have no feasible upgrade route back into the main software branch. The RAF lack the expertise, will and money to support the B5 software so the aircraft are obsolete which is why they are in the "reduce to produce" process. ie scrapped for parts.

    These aircraft would be of significant net negative value to the Polish Air Force as they are colossally expensive to operate and can employ none of their existing weapons. They are also functionally inferior to the F-16s they already have and the F-35As they have on order.

    Wouldn't they just run them for this conflict and then do what we're going to do (sell them for parts/scrap)? Essentially just a short term fix for giving away their MiGs.

    Either way, thanks for the info, I feel as though we'd do well to hire you as a consultant DA, but then you'd be joining the capitalist system.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    MaxPB said:

    The compressed air battery seems to be the winning idea at the moment. It also allows us to tap storage tanks for CO2 and put it into long term underground storage to actually move into a net negative scenario.
    Would also solve our industrial CO2 supply problem - and potentially the neon production one, too.

    There are various storage technologies which have different advantages/disadvantages. They are not mutually exclusive.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    Apologies in advance if I am reading this incorrectly, totally missing the boat and/or failing to understand your points here.

    You consider atheism a mental illness?
    No, but other societies and times have done so. It is clearly not so in contemporary Britain. I use it as an example of a society changing, and being more accepting of social deviance.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Thanks for the info.

    "no feasible upgrade route back into the main software branch"

    As someone who worked at the hardware/software level, what are the constraining factors to moving back onto the software branch? Is the hardware actually very different, and if so, it is it modularised?
    Potentially an ASIC? Would have a specified instruction set rather than anything programmable.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,931
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:



    No, but other societies and times have done so. It is clearly not so in contemporary Britain. I use it as an example of a society changing, and being more accepting of social deviance.

    OK, thanks for clarifying. So mental illness by this definition is essentially anything that would not be considered "the norm" by wider society?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842

    UK bottler has a few weeks' supply left
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60941091

    Excessive globalisation / consolidation strikes again. 80% of the global supply of sunflower oil comes out of Russia and Ukraine. For UK market, 75% of supply is packed by a single company.

    I'm not particularly concerned about this because sunflower oil is horrible for your health. Hopefully return to using beef tallow.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    For a whole range of practical purposes it makes little difference. Transitioning requires heavyweight medical intervention and a philosophical debate over the existence of a soul like gender identity doesn't affect that. The substantive issues are access to things currently segregated on the basis of biological sex including safe spaces, prisons and women's sport plus treatment of minors with irreversible and risky medical interventions . Another less important issue is how far elaborate changes in terminology are needed and whether short hand cultural assumptions that apply to the vast majority of the population need to be abandoned. My view is that we recognise degrees of transition by an individual in terms of access to segregated resources and activities and that biological sex is retained as a discriminator for certain things like some sports. The vast majority of individuals who transition will be able to live their lives as their chosen gender without negating the rights of others.
    Though a key part of the Trans debate is how far physical transitioning is required for social acceptance. A significant percentage of Trans people do not surgically or chemically transition.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774

    Apologies in advance if I am reading this incorrectly, totally missing the boat and/or failing to understand your points here.

    You consider atheism a mental illness?
    No, @Foxy ’s point is there are societies which have.

    As far as the trans argument is concerned, I have a child who is trans, and find the suggestion that he is suffering a mental illness both absurd - he is better adjusted than most posters, here including me - and offensive.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367

    The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany is not pulling any punches:

    https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1510540816187539459

    Germany's 'Never Again' is bullshit. Pure hypocrisy.

    'Never Again' has always been BS. I hate the phrase. I feel contempt for those who trot it out.

    Cambodia, Sudan, DRC, Rawanda, the Balkans, Yemen, Somalia, El Salvador, Kashmir, Biafra, and many more show that the world is quite content to watch 'Never Again' happen again.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,325
    MaxPB said:

    Wouldn't they just run them for this conflict and then do what we're going to do (sell them for parts/scrap)? Essentially just a short term fix for giving away their MiGs.

    Either way, thanks for the info, I feel as though we'd do well to hire you as a consultant DA, but then you'd be joining the capitalist system.
    You can't just "run" them. They need massive technical and logistcal support from contractors (BAE, Eurojet Turbo, Eurofighter and probably Serco as they seem to do everything.) None of this expertise is in-house in the RAF any more. It would be so expensive and disruptive to the Polish Air Force that it would degrade their capability as a fighting force.

    If we wanted to level up the Polish Air Force then the fastest and most effective thing to do would be to give them more F-16s out of AMARC or maybe a National Guard unit.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited April 2022
    For those interested in the Hungarian election latest turnout at 1pm local time was 40.01% this is slightly lower than 2018 but well ahead of 2014. And there was a record of 14.1% voting between 11 and 1pm .

    Higher turnout is expected to help the opposition especially as they are not splintered like 2018. This is especially important when you look at the 2018 figures.

    In that election even though Fidesz only got 34% of those able to vote they ended up with 67% of seats .

    The full figures were

    34% Fidesz
    36% for the anti Fidesz parties
    30% did not vote

    The highest turnout so far is in Budapest with 42.7% .

    Fidesz is still favoured to win the election as the opposition would need around 4% lead to have a chance of a majority .
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    MaxPB said:

    The US and unnamed countries (Poland) are said to be prepping a transfer of T-72 tanks to Ukraine. I think it's also time for us to lend Poland the money to buy our tranche 1 Typhoons (which are being taken out of service in 2025, but could have their operational life extended for an extra 10 years) so they can give Ukraine their old MiGs.

    We should give them the tools to push the Russians out of their country and its also time to to turn the gas imports off and fuck the consequences. The war crimes being committed by the Russian regime are horrific and yet countries allied to Ukraine are spending billions of dollars per week propping up the Russians.
    Agree with that,

    There are quite a lot of operators of T72 Tanks, many in NATO and many of those are looking to Phaze the tank out in so there could be a few places

    T72 Operators in NATO, according to Wikipedia:

    Bulgaria - 80 Active and 350 in reserve
    Czech Republic - 30 Active 86 in reserve
    Hungary - 16 active 113 Reserve
    Poland - 586
    Slovakia - 22
    Romanian - 28 in reserve Looking to sell.

    Those 6 nations are out of 42 in total that operate the T72, mostly poorer nations, some most of which will not what to annoy Russia to much, but I bet a few are strapped for cash and also what to keep on the good side of Washington, and would be willing to sell a few if kept quiet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362
    nico679 said:

    For those interested in the Hungarian election latest turnout at 1pm local time was 40.01% this is slightly lower than 2018 but well ahead of 2014. And there was a record of 14.1% voting between 11 and 1pm .

    Higher turnout is expected to help the opposition especially as they are not splintered like 2018. This is especially important when you look at the 2018 figures.

    In that election even though Fidesz only got 34% of those able to vote they ended up with 67% of seats .

    The full figures were

    34% Fidesz
    36% for the anti Fidesz parties
    30% did not vote

    The highest turnout so far is in Budapest with 42.7% .

    Fidesz is still favoured to win the election as the opposition would need around 4% lead to have a chance of a majority .

    Surely the fraction of seats should be compared to the fraction of votes they received? Those who didn't vote obviously don't have any specific set of MPs representing them.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,325

    Thanks for the info.

    "no feasible upgrade route back into the main software branch"

    As someone who worked at the hardware/software level, what are the constraining factors to moving back onto the software branch? Is the hardware actually very different, and if so, it is it modularised?
    I don't know exactly but it definitely needs new hardware and (I think) a structural change in a forward fuselage cross member to accommodate it. Then you've got to recertify the whole thing for flight, weapons release, etc. The Prime Minister will be one of Johnson's as yet unborn future bastards by the time all that happened.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    MaxPB said:

    Potentially an ASIC? Would have a specified instruction set rather than anything programmable.
    Given the fantastic cost of the project, I'd be amazed if such things were not easy to change and swap. If they are not, the it reflects very badly on the project.

    What might kybosh it is if they needed extra cabling / hydraulics etc to hardpoints, and they just add it. That sort of change would be an absolute barsteward to revert or add.

    Incidentally, here's a good thread on why "Just provide system x to Ukraine" mostly doesn't work:
    https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1510341553520361472
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    Small reactors. The sort of thing that fits in a smallish attack submarine. I'm very much in favour, from the little we know atm, and especially if they don't use highly-enriched uranium.

    https://www.rolls-royce.com/innovation/small-modular-reactors.aspx#/
    I don't really see how that helps with the politics. All the people who were opposed to having a large reactor near their houses will be equally opposed to having a small reactor, and there won't be any compensating local jobs either.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    BigRich said:

    Agree with that,

    There are quite a lot of operators of T72 Tanks, many in NATO and many of those are looking to Phaze the tank out in so there could be a few places

    T72 Operators in NATO, according to Wikipedia:

    Bulgaria - 80 Active and 350 in reserve
    Czech Republic - 30 Active 86 in reserve
    Hungary - 16 active 113 Reserve
    Poland - 586
    Slovakia - 22
    Romanian - 28 in reserve Looking to sell.

    Those 6 nations are out of 42 in total that operate the T72, mostly poorer nations, some most of which will not what to annoy Russia to much, but I bet a few are strapped for cash and also what to keep on the good side of Washington, and would be willing to sell a few if kept quiet.
    Speaking as a non-military expert: is there any reason why we couldn't 'accept' Ukrainian tanks from their vast stores, or ones that have been damaged, and do a lot of the heavy maintenance work for them? Or could (say) Poland allow Ukrainians to train on their soil? Russia would see it as an escalation, but Russia seems to see any Ukrainian still breathing as an escalation.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't know exactly but it definitely needs new hardware and (I think) a structural change in a forward fuselage cross member to accommodate it. Then you've got to recertify the whole thing for flight, weapons release, etc. The Prime Minister will be one of Johnson's as yet unborn future bastards by the time all that happened.

    That sounds like they used an ASIC in that case, which is probably why maintenance is so expensive, you need to simply swap in new silicon to keep them flying, and running manufacturing for them will mean each chip has huge spin up and spin down costs associated.

    I might not know defence (as seemingly relying on substandard research), but I do know silicon chips and wafer processes...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    RobD said:

    Surely the fraction of seats should be compared to the fraction of votes they received? Those who didn't vote obviously don't have any specific set of MPs representing them.
    That’s true but the key thing is that the splintered opposition allowed Fidesz to get a huge majority . This time the main opposition parties have joined forces .
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't know exactly but it definitely needs new hardware and (I think) a structural change in a forward fuselage cross member to accommodate it. Then you've got to recertify the whole thing for flight, weapons release, etc. The Prime Minister will be one of Johnson's as yet unborn future bastards by the time all that happened.
    That doesn't sound massive. I'll bet you any money: if it decides it has to be done (tm), it will be done in a matter of weeks. If that.

    (And yes, IANAE, IMBBAA, etc, etc)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    I don't really see how that helps with the politics. All the people who were opposed to having a large reactor near their houses will be equally opposed to having a small reactor, and there won't be any compensating local jobs either.
    You call it an SMR and people think that this is referring to a Steam Methane Reformer, making blue hydrogen, and welcome the investment.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    That doesn't sound massive. I'll bet you any money: if it decides it has to be done (tm), it will be done in a matter of weeks. If that.

    (And yes, IANAE, IMBBAA, etc, etc)
    Nah, if they're moving from an ASIC to a generalised CPU in a combat setting the recertification process will be huge. The ASIC timings will have been built into the software specifications. The room for error in emulating the ASIC instructions and timings will be nil, which will require extensive testing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    OK, thanks for clarifying. So mental illness by this definition is essentially anything that would not be considered "the norm" by wider society?
    I read it as you did, and thought Foxy sounded – well – erm, a bit crackers. Mental illness is surely what it says it is: a malfunctioning of normal brain function. The views of any particular society would – it seems to me – be irrelevant to this.

    Just because some societies (bafflingly, wrongly) consider homosexuality and atheism wrong, doesn't make homosexuality and atheism an illness of any kind.

    You could better argue that the societies themselves were sick for preaching against such freedom of thought and sexuality.

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