When I take a step back and look at the state of things it is so reminiscent of 1992-7.
I think we are underestimating Labour's chances in 2024 and next month will be a bad one for the tories.
Things could not be more different today compared with 1992-97. Just look at what inflation was like back then...
It's an irony that the Conservatives in 1997 bequeathed to Labour a country in rude economic health and yet the tories took a hammering. But if you look at the polls carefully you can clearly see that Black Wednesday and Britain's exit from the ERM busted the Conservatives: the terrible events of that day when interest rates briefly went over 20% meant that the Conservatives were no longer trusted on the economy.
2022. Snap.
They're finished.
I disagree - and I really hope Labour don't get complacent, as they often were in 2010-15.
The causes of the Conservative's malaise in 92-97 were different. Black Wednesday was a totally self-inflicted mess. Sleaze seems less of an issue now. The problems facing the country are mostly external: higher fuel prices caused by the war; food prices by the war; and Covid on top.
Only Brexit was in our hands, and I don't see that as being a major cause of our problems.
In addition, some of the energy price increase can be put down to the cost of green policies, which the public are in favour of.
IMV external effects are less of a government than internal ones.
There I disagree. Sleaze is a major and ongoing issue now. Boris Johnson has in effect just become the first PM to be found guilty of a crime while in office - literally, in his own back garden. Even if he's never fined because the Met are even more cowardly and corrupt than the government, that's big. Compared to Cash for Questions, it's huuuge.
It may currently have slightly less public cut through, which is not the same thing.
You may well be right. One point though: has he been found guilty of a crime yet?
The point is that others who committed an identical offence have just been fined. That's an implicit admission that what was happening was illegal. It removes the ambiguity about 'laws' vs 'guidelines' that @Cyclefree has been explaining to us with exemplary patience.
In a way, it will now look worse if he isn't fined, as that will imply that he's above the law.
Neither obvious pathway is good for the PM now.
If he's not fined, it won't exonerate him in the public mind, and will make it look like BoJo is above the law. I'd happily bet a shiny sixpence that he does believe that, but it will be a terrible look.
If he is fined, well... he's guilty, isn't he? In such an unambiguous way that even he and his backbenchers can't just ignore.
Unless he goes for a "no criminal record, paid charge so that none of us are distracted by trivia about the past, when we need to vaccinate Ukraine."
Or some other blog of grease that I can't think of because I'm not as brazen as Big Greased Piglet.
"You wouldn't expect him to resign for a parking ticket, would you?" will I, suspect, be the line.
I would expect him to resign for lying to the House. That is the issue here.
It's one of them. But since several of his ministers have already lied to the House and got away with it, e.g. Shapps over HS2E, it's slightly less serious than the fact he broke the law.
It perhaps shouldn't be. It may be a mark of just how far this government's fallen. But it is.
I'm sure the person responsible for the enforcement of the Ministerial Code will have something to say abo... oh for #£@&?+##'s sake...
On that topic, Mr Cummings has weighed in. He does have a point about the unfairness of prosecuting junior staff but letting the bosses go scot free.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
When I take a step back and look at the state of things it is so reminiscent of 1992-7.
I think we are underestimating Labour's chances in 2024 and next month will be a bad one for the tories.
Things could not be more different today compared with 1992-97. Just look at what inflation was like back then...
It's an irony that the Conservatives in 1997 bequeathed to Labour a country in rude economic health and yet the tories took a hammering. But if you look at the polls carefully you can clearly see that Black Wednesday and Britain's exit from the ERM busted the Conservatives: the terrible events of that day when interest rates briefly went over 20% meant that the Conservatives were no longer trusted on the economy.
2022. Snap.
They're finished.
I disagree - and I really hope Labour don't get complacent, as they often were in 2010-15.
The causes of the Conservative's malaise in 92-97 were different. Black Wednesday was a totally self-inflicted mess. Sleaze seems less of an issue now. The problems facing the country are mostly external: higher fuel prices caused by the war; food prices by the war; and Covid on top.
Only Brexit was in our hands, and I don't see that as being a major cause of our problems.
In addition, some of the energy price increase can be put down to the cost of green policies, which the public are in favour of.
IMV external effects are less of a government than internal ones.
There I disagree. Sleaze is a major and ongoing issue now. Boris Johnson has in effect just become the first PM to be found guilty of a crime while in office - literally, in his own back garden. Even if he's never fined because the Met are even more cowardly and corrupt than the government, that's big. Compared to Cash for Questions, it's huuuge.
It may currently have slightly less public cut through, which is not the same thing.
You may well be right. One point though: has he been found guilty of a crime yet?
The point is that others who committed an identical offence have just been fined. That's an implicit admission that what was happening was illegal. It removes the ambiguity about 'laws' vs 'guidelines' that @Cyclefree has been explaining to us with exemplary patience.
In a way, it will now look worse if he isn't fined, as that will imply that he's above the law.
Neither obvious pathway is good for the PM now.
If he's not fined, it won't exonerate him in the public mind, and will make it look like BoJo is above the law. I'd happily bet a shiny sixpence that he does believe that, but it will be a terrible look.
If he is fined, well... he's guilty, isn't he? In such an unambiguous way that even he and his backbenchers can't just ignore.
Unless he goes for a "no criminal record, paid charge so that none of us are distracted by trivia about the past, when we need to vaccinate Ukraine."
Or some other blog of grease that I can't think of because I'm not as brazen as Big Greased Piglet.
"You wouldn't expect him to resign for a parking ticket, would you?" will I, suspect, be the line.
I would expect him to resign for lying to the House. That is the issue here.
It's one of them. But since several of his ministers have already lied to the House and got away with it, e.g. Shapps over HS2E, it's slightly less serious than the fact he broke the law.
It perhaps shouldn't be. It may be a mark of just how far this government's fallen. But it is.
I'm sure the person responsible for the enforcement of the Ministerial Code will have something to say abo... oh for #£@&?+##'s sake...
On that topic, Mr Cummings has weighed in. He does have a point about the unfairness of prosecuting junior staff but letting the bosses go scot free.
I wonder if the revelations of the atrocities we have seen today will persuade European countries to switch off the gas?
All those people who accused central and east Europeans of paranoia towards Russia ought to hang their heads in shame. There is a profound arrogance in assuming you know someone's neighbours better than they do themselves. Truth is those people had seen it all before. There was never any sign that Russia had changed. A kleptocratic elite that uses delinquents as cannon fodder. No doubt there will be the usual suspects saying we poked the bear (like we did in Chechnya and Syria?) how poor Russia has been humiliated by the west for 30/300/3000 years etc etc.
Something else. I can't help feel there has been a certain snobbery on display. A view in western Europe that Russians were BETTER than their fellow slavs. After all Russia gave us ballet, Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky. What have the Poles and Ukrainians given us? How dare they deign to criticise the great nation of Russia. What a bunch of upstarts. Now it wasn't just a matter of class or culture. Money mattered too and of course cheap gas. Russia has been infantilised by its energy resources removing any need to develop a modern economy. I hope Europeans now feel like Dr Frankenstein after he created the monster.
The Poles gave us Copernicus.
And Chopin.
And one of my primary school teachers.
John III Sobieski, the man who finally turned back the expanding Ottoman Empire at the Battle of Vienna.
Ukraine gave us Khrushchev - for good or for ill - and a case could be made for Trotsky and Gorbachev as well.
I should have mentioned Joseph Conrad and Sergei Prokofiev.
Amazing chap Conrad. He was pals with both Neil Munro, the author of the comedy classic Para Handy, and Cunninghame Graham, the Liberal MP who went on to become the first socialist MP in the Commons and helped found both the Labour Party and then the Scottish National Party.
Is Conrad the greatest novelist to write in a language not native to him ?
Possibly a bit eurocentric a view, as there are many great writings in the post colonial literature that are written in English by authors whose first language is indigenous, but Conrad is an exceptionally good writer.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
These are all good points.
The only thing I would want to add though is that I know people who have been pretty dismissive of covid, taking the kind of Leon line on it, who have caught it recently and who have felt really rough. None of them died, it's true, so the vaccines did their job brilliantly but they felt 'awful' and were unable to work for c. 5 to 7 days because of feeling too ill. So I don't think it's just about a requirement to isolate. It still makes a lot of people too ill to work. My ex, my son's father, was pretty cavalier about covid until he got it two weeks ago and has now changed his tune.
I'm avoiding entering the debate, which is my own bugbear, about the ongoing danger to vulnerable people and the elderly. There's also ongoing concern about the longterm health effects of this. There was a pretty strong warning from Dr Stephen Griffin yesterday. Is this just another doom-monger scientist as the Mail would have us believe? Or should we be just a wee bit more careful? https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/covid-warning-uk-faces-very-26619063
Both my wife and I got Covid and it was bad. Took 2 months for me to make a complete recovery. My wife got a related chest infection whilst recovering and was put on medication - has now been referred to hospital and on the waiting list for an X ray. Hard to tell if it was any worse though, than a pre 2020 'winter bug'. Obviously there is a lot of caution in the medical system about post COVID symptoms because so little is known about them. But I think there is an acceptance post Omicron that it is futile to try and suppress the virus, we are stuck with trying to slow it down, prevent it through vaccination and treat the symptoms - and this is the right course of action.
Visited Sainsbury for the first time for a couple of weeks yesterday after recovering from Covid - mask-wearing was down to 30%. But there's no doubt that it's a real epidemic now in the everyday sense of the word - it's all over the place. In the absence of much national guidance (I was actually surprised to be toldf to self-isolate for 10 days by the NHS app - if that's the Government position, I missed it), I guess that most people are trying to be a bit cautious where it doesn't interfere with their enjoyment but otherwise just hoping for the best.
There's a particular problem for those employers whose staff can work fairly effectively from home. We are resuming going to the office 2 days a week from tomorrow. There is considerable reluctance among some staff - colleagues who I've spoken to would prefer a model of converting the office into a place to meet, with lots of separate areas and hot desks for people to comre in when there's a reason for a meeting, rather than routine presenteeism. "What's the point of routinely coming in and then having staff go sick?" is the argument. The counter-argument is that we need to attempt to return to a degree of normality sometime, and putting it off further won't make it any easier. Certainly a return to 5 days/week is out of the question for the forseeable future.
What I don't understand is why we're taking our foot off the vaccination pedal. Why aren't we giving new boosters with the same enthusiasm that was so successful last year?
Two things. On boosters there would need to be evidence of what they would achieve. Most who have had three shots will not get dangerously ill with omicron. Sadly though they are not being protected from infection. I doubt a booster with the old vaccine would change that much. A tweaked one might. Given most have also now had Covid, there are probably limited gains from a 4th shot for most of the population.
Secondly, are your colleagues being honest about their reasons? Is it as much that they like wfh and want to do it as much as possible? It’s facile to suggest it’s the risk of illness for why, but is that the only reason?
The little 'un is booked in for his jab on Tuesday morning. He's keen for it, so my idea of visiting the toyshop afterwards wasn't actually needed. We'll still go.
There doesn't seem to be much talk about the opening up of jabs for 5-12 year olds on here.
Because it is pointless, far more risk from the man than covid for young children
I wonder if the revelations of the atrocities we have seen today will persuade European countries to switch off the gas?
All those people who accused central and east Europeans of paranoia towards Russia ought to hang their heads in shame. There is a profound arrogance in assuming you know someone's neighbours better than they do themselves. Truth is those people had seen it all before. There was never any sign that Russia had changed. A kleptocratic elite that uses delinquents as cannon fodder. No doubt there will be the usual suspects saying we poked the bear (like we did in Chechnya and Syria?) how poor Russia has been humiliated by the west for 30/300/3000 years etc etc.
Something else. I can't help feel there has been a certain snobbery on display. A view in western Europe that Russians were BETTER than their fellow slavs. After all Russia gave us ballet, Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky. What have the Poles and Ukrainians given us? How dare they deign to criticise the great nation of Russia. What a bunch of upstarts. Now it wasn't just a matter of class or culture. Money mattered too and of course cheap gas. Russia has been infantilised by its energy resources removing any need to develop a modern economy. I hope Europeans now feel like Dr Frankenstein after he created the monster.
The Poles gave us Copernicus.
And Chopin.
And one of my primary school teachers.
John III Sobieski, the man who finally turned back the expanding Ottoman Empire at the Battle of Vienna.
Ukraine gave us Khrushchev - for good or for ill - and a case could be made for Trotsky and Gorbachev as well.
I should have mentioned Joseph Conrad and Sergei Prokofiev.
Amazing chap Conrad. He was pals with both Neil Munro, the author of the comedy classic Para Handy, and Cunninghame Graham, the Liberal MP who went on to become the first socialist MP in the Commons and helped found both the Labour Party and then the Scottish National Party.
Is Conrad the greatest novelist to write in a language not native to him ?
A work colleague once told me about his g-granddad who was an Atlantic liner captain. Conrad was on the passenger manifest one trip - was absolutely delighted to be invited to eat in the wardroom away from the stresses of being a celeb. Seems to have been a good guest too. (He was of course a mercantile marine officer by trade, if anyone doesn't know.)
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
With respect, that’s utter bollocks. The Russians have been murdering both civilians and soldiers who are under their control, outside of combat, on a widespread scale - alongside rape and torture. As I noted at the end of the last thread, this report from liberated Trostyanets in the east, which was occupied for weeks before being liberated makes it clear that this wasn’t just in the contested suburbs around Kyiv, but across the whole of the Russian invasion. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473 God knows how bad it is and will be in Mariupol.
Similar stories have come from occupied Donbas for many years, but have received far less attention. Occupation, not war. The Russian treatment of Ukraine is not much different from that of the Belgian colonialists in Congo in terms of its humanity.
And, incidentally, the idea of plebiscites in Russian occupied territory is a sick joke
On topic, visited London yesterday to do the tourist bit with some American friends. I was surprised to see how few people were masked on the tube. I had thought it was still a legal requirement and so had gone prepared. When did Khan lift his rules - or are they just being ignored on a wide level?
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
Fair point, although some of us are perhaps genuinely weird. It’s nonetheless impolite to point that out, I concede.
On topic, visited London yesterday to do the tourist bit with some American friends. I was surprised to see how few people were masked on the tube. I had thought it was still a legal requirement and so had gone prepared. When did Khan lift his rules - or are they just being ignored on a wide level?
Rules were lifted a few weeks ago, masks now just recommended. Thank fuck.
We have said we will stop importing diesel from Russia by the end of 2022
A bit late, if true. We are damaging our own sanctions. It’s absurd.
To be honest it is nothing compared to the EU spending 18 billion euros on Russian gas since the 24th February with no sign of any serious reduction anytime soon
What happens to the assets of the Russian elite frozen in the west? There seems to be an assumption that this is permanent. In some cases I would go along with that. Could they not also be a useful bargaining chip? Offer the opportunity to unfreeze these assets once Mr Putin and those directly responsible for the war have been delivered to the Hague.
Given the supposed health problems of Mr Putin one wonders if he may make it there. So maybe the termination of his command would be sufficient.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
I disagree, an so does history. The Oradour-sur-Glane massacre was not excused because of the French partisans, nor were any of the other similar atrocities.
History will write this similarly.
It certainly doesn't excuse people executed with hands tied behind their backs as we saw yesterday. That is a war crime, plain and simple and the crime is murder.
But if you are a 18 year old, poorly trained conscript in an armoured vehicle that seems to have a target painted on it, expecting a lethal ambush at any moment it is not hard to understand how everything that moves looks like a target.
The things we see in Bucha, and elsewhere following the Russian retreats, look to me to be part of the complete breakdown of discipline and command by the Russian forces. Not that the Russian officers are likely to be that bothered. After all, is it worse shooting cyclists and shoppers from an APC, or firing a missile at a theatre full of children. One is just a bit more close, but both are crimes.
The Russian forces were catastrophically defeated and took very heavy casualties in the Kyiv Oblast, and ran amok killing, looting, raping before retreating. The effect will be to harden the resolve of Ukranians in Donbas and Kherson to fight on. It is clear why Mariopol fights on, even a month into the siege.
The officers will not care as this is the way the Russian military acts. They even treat their own troops poorly:
"In 2019, according to the Russian military prosecutor office situation with dedovshchina is getting worse. Incidents of hazing in the army during the 2019 have increased. 51,000 human rights violations and 9,890 sexual assault cases.[8]"
Certainly so. The whole point of basic military training is to turn raw recruits into willing killers, and overcome their existing cultural inhibitions. It doesn't seem to be too difficult to do this, but what is difficult is to control them afterwards.
In general post Vietnam western armies have understood how to direct and contain that violence. There are continued incidents of course, including British troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, and even in training in Kenya. In Russia, as with some other nations the military command doesn't even seem willing to try to contain the mayhem, indeed often relishes it.
Well yes, that's exactly the point. It's down to training, and for the Russians, hazing is part of the training. Even to the point where recruits are sexually abused or killed. It's a step beyond anything we would recognise as 'training', even with some of our problems in training.
Yet as we've seen by the results, it doesn't work. The Russians are doing poorly, in part, because of their training regime.
The hazing is less severe in the UK, but incidents keep happening here too. This was last year:
Part of the problem in the Russian forces is the lack of a real cadre of NCOs to control the process of turning recruits into killers who follow orders.
We have said we will stop importing diesel from Russia by the end of 2022
A bit late, if true. We are damaging our own sanctions. It’s absurd.
Indeed, we stopped drilling our own oil and gas but the demand didn't go away.
We appeased the green lobby. It was an error and now we are planning to exploit our own reserves the green lobby won’t accept it. Oil terminals are currently blockaded by protesters and will be every day until the govt yields.
Six foot trans goalkeeper who used to play men's football is now selected for England Universities' women's side
No amount of testosterone suppression alters the fact that she has an advantage over female-born goalkeepers.
Being universities, that's just trolling. I hope other teams refuse to play them. This isn't funny: a genuine footballer has been denied the opportunity to play in the team.
Yep but the Mail are on a mission at the moment and it's very unpleasant indeed.
If we are going down the line of assessing women based on physique then we're on sticky ground. I've worked alongside female colleagues who were at least 6 ft and with strong physical features, as well as pretty obviously high testosterone levels.
But there are definite changes which take place around puberty.
I'll say no more here about this. The whole topic is so mired in vitriol and hatred, not just on here I hasten to add, that it's not an appropriate place to discuss. It's nuanced and complex, whatever the binary boneheads like Piers Morgan want to tell everyone.
Nothing nuanced about it, men competing against women are just cowardly powers who could not beat men. How can they take the embarrassment of everybody knowing they are cheating losers
I wonder if the revelations of the atrocities we have seen today will persuade European countries to switch off the gas?
All those people who accused central and east Europeans of paranoia towards Russia ought to hang their heads in shame. There is a profound arrogance in assuming you know someone's neighbours better than they do themselves. Truth is those people had seen it all before. There was never any sign that Russia had changed. A kleptocratic elite that uses delinquents as cannon fodder. No doubt there will be the usual suspects saying we poked the bear (like we did in Chechnya and Syria?) how poor Russia has been humiliated by the west for 30/300/3000 years etc etc.
Something else. I can't help feel there has been a certain snobbery on display. A view in western Europe that Russians were BETTER than their fellow slavs. After all Russia gave us ballet, Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky. What have the Poles and Ukrainians given us? How dare they deign to criticise the great nation of Russia. What a bunch of upstarts. Now it wasn't just a matter of class or culture. Money mattered too and of course cheap gas. Russia has been infantilised by its energy resources removing any need to develop a modern economy. I hope Europeans now feel like Dr Frankenstein after he created the monster.
The Poles gave us Copernicus.
And Chopin.
And one of my primary school teachers.
John III Sobieski, the man who finally turned back the expanding Ottoman Empire at the Battle of Vienna.
Ukraine gave us Khrushchev - for good or for ill - and a case could be made for Trotsky and Gorbachev as well.
I should have mentioned Joseph Conrad and Sergei Prokofiev.
Amazing chap Conrad. He was pals with both Neil Munro, the author of the comedy classic Para Handy, and Cunninghame Graham, the Liberal MP who went on to become the first socialist MP in the Commons and helped found both the Labour Party and then the Scottish National Party.
Is Conrad the greatest novelist to write in a language not native to him ?
Possibly a bit eurocentric a view, as there are many great writings in the post colonial literature that are written in English by authors whose first language is indigenous, but Conrad is an exceptionally good writer.
While that’s true, the mass availability of English language media in the post Conrad world arguably makes that a little less remarkable. On the other hand, Conrad’s father was a translator.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
Fair point, although some of us are perhaps genuinely weird. It’s nonetheless impolite to point that out, I concede.
True, imagine how weird we might sound to them. I swear an essential political skill these days is to notice the bubble you are in (we are all in bubbles) and find ways to challenge yourself and become aware of the bubbles others live in.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The problem is Putin.
We should not suspend sanctions against Russia until Putin is delivered to the ICC in the Hague. Period.
I thought that too, but I’m increasingly convinced the problem is Russia. This is bigger than Putin.
The killings look coordinated and preordained. Public support for the war in Russia is high. Thousands of officials and military from the top down to junior officers are happily carrying out a campaign of terror.
If Putin goes there are plenty of ultra-nationalists ready and waiting to “exact revenge” on their former colonies.
Not sure if you (or others) have seen this lecture by Martti J Kari. A former Finnish Army colonel. It is an exceptionally good analysis of Russia. Manages to be both terrifying and sympathetic.
On topic, visited London yesterday to do the tourist bit with some American friends. I was surprised to see how few people were masked on the tube. I had thought it was still a legal requirement and so had gone prepared. When did Khan lift his rules
Given the part of the U.K. with the highest COVID rate also has the strictest mask policy, I think it’s a bit of COVID theatre we can dispense with. If people want to continue to wear masks that’s fine. If they’re infected, or think they are, they should stay home.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
With respect, that’s utter bollocks. The Russians have been murdering both civilians and soldiers who are under their control, outside of combat, on a widespread scale - alongside rape and torture. As I noted at the end of the last thread, this report from liberated Trostyanets in the east, which was occupied for weeks before being liberated makes it clear that this wasn’t just in the contested suburbs around Kyiv, but across the whole of the Russian invasion. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473 God knows how bad it is and will be in Mariupol.
Similar stories have come from occupied Donbas for many years, but have received far less attention. Occupation, not war. The Russian treatment of Ukraine is not much different from that of the Belgian colonialists in Congo in terms of its humanity.
And, incidentally, the idea of plebiscites in Russian occupied territory is a sick joke
The original Hague Convention was, to a large extent, a response to German actions during the 1870 war.
The nonsense about using "Frightfulness" to cow a civilian population has a long and ugly history. And the Russians have joined that history with enthusiasm.
We have said we will stop importing diesel from Russia by the end of 2022
A bit late, if true. We are damaging our own sanctions. It’s absurd.
To be honest it is nothing compared to the EU spending 18 billion euros on Russian gas since the 24th February with no sign of any serious reduction anytime soon
It’s not nothing, we need to take the plank out of eye and start being the change we want to see. Otherwise if we criticise the EU we’re total hypocrites.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
When I take a step back and look at the state of things it is so reminiscent of 1992-7.
I think we are underestimating Labour's chances in 2024 and next month will be a bad one for the tories.
It is not at all reminiscent of 1992-97. It's not even reminiscent of 1984-86.
There is nothing unusual about the government's ratings, 28 months into a Parliament. Yesterday's thread was about Ted Heath's victory in 1970. By this stage of the 1966-70 Parliament, the Conservatives were 25% ahead, and winning places like Lambeth and Hackney. At this stage of the 1992-97 Parliament, Labour were 30% ahead, and winning places like Hertsmere.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
With respect, that’s utter bollocks. The Russians have been murdering both civilians and soldiers who are under their control, outside of combat, on a widespread scale - alongside rape and torture. As I noted at the end of the last thread, this report from liberated Trostyanets in the east, which was occupied for weeks before being liberated makes it clear that this wasn’t just in the contested suburbs around Kyiv, but across the whole of the Russian invasion. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473 God knows how bad it is and will be in Mariupol.
Similar stories have come from occupied Donbas for many years, but have received far less attention. Occupation, not war. The Russian treatment of Ukraine is not much different from that of the Belgian colonialists in Congo in terms of its humanity.
And, incidentally, the idea of plebiscites in Russian occupied territory is a sick joke
And not much different from what the Red Army did in 1945.
If your argument is "they'll make it worse", well, if foreign soldiers are here killing civilians, that's already pretty bad. Keeping your head down and hoping you make it through unscathed is cowardly, wrong, and unsustainable.
In that case @Farooq, would you agree with the statement that civilians leaving Ukraine and seeking refuge in the west are 'cowardly and wrong'?
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
We need to understand why someone might feel free to say those things and why there are thousands out there who will vote for it. If you stop at outrage you end up playing Clinton to their Trump.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
These are all good points.
The only thing I would want to add though is that I know people who have been pretty dismissive of covid, taking the kind of Leon line on it, who have caught it recently and who have felt really rough. None of them died, it's true, so the vaccines did their job brilliantly but they felt 'awful' and were unable to work for c. 5 to 7 days because of feeling too ill. So I don't think it's just about a requirement to isolate. It still makes a lot of people too ill to work. My ex, my son's father, was pretty cavalier about covid until he got it two weeks ago and has now changed his tune.
I'm avoiding entering the debate, which is my own bugbear, about the ongoing danger to vulnerable people and the elderly. There's also ongoing concern about the longterm health effects of this. There was a pretty strong warning from Dr Stephen Griffin yesterday. Is this just another doom-monger scientist as the Mail would have us believe? Or should we be just a wee bit more careful? https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/covid-warning-uk-faces-very-26619063
Both my wife and I got Covid and it was bad. Took 2 months for me to make a complete recovery. My wife got a related chest infection whilst recovering and was put on medication - has now been referred to hospital and on the waiting list for an X ray. Hard to tell if it was any worse though, than a pre 2020 'winter bug'. Obviously there is a lot of caution in the medical system about post COVID symptoms because so little is known about them. But I think there is an acceptance post Omicron that it is futile to try and suppress the virus, we are stuck with trying to slow it down, prevent it through vaccination and treat the symptoms - and this is the right course of action.
Visited Sainsbury for the first time for a couple of weeks yesterday after recovering from Covid - mask-wearing was down to 30%. But there's no doubt that it's a real epidemic now in the everyday sense of the word - it's all over the place. In the absence of much national guidance (I was actually surprised to be toldf to self-isolate for 10 days by the NHS app - if that's the Government position, I missed it), I guess that most people are trying to be a bit cautious where it doesn't interfere with their enjoyment but otherwise just hoping for the best.
There's a particular problem for those employers whose staff can work fairly effectively from home. We are resuming going to the office 2 days a week from tomorrow. There is considerable reluctance among some staff - colleagues who I've spoken to would prefer a model of converting the office into a place to meet, with lots of separate areas and hot desks for people to comre in when there's a reason for a meeting, rather than routine presenteeism. "What's the point of routinely coming in and then having staff go sick?" is the argument. The counter-argument is that we need to attempt to return to a degree of normality sometime, and putting it off further won't make it any easier. Certainly a return to 5 days/week is out of the question for the forseeable future.
What I don't understand is why we're taking our foot off the vaccination pedal. Why aren't we giving new boosters with the same enthusiasm that was so successful last year?
Two things. On boosters there would need to be evidence of what they would achieve. Most who have had three shots will not get dangerously ill with omicron. Sadly though they are not being protected from infection. I doubt a booster with the old vaccine would change that much. A tweaked one might. Given most have also now had Covid, there are probably limited gains from a 4th shot for most of the population.
Secondly, are your colleagues being honest about their reasons? Is it as much that they like wfh and want to do it as much as possible? It’s facile to suggest it’s the risk of illness for why, but is that the only reason?
Either way, Labour insiders say it will try to capitalise on partygate during the local election campaign, issuing leaflets in key seats that say: “X number of people died of Covid in this area while Boris Johnson and his aides partied.”
Even if sanctions are not biting, presumably all this fighting is costing the Russians money. There were rumours - scotched - early on in the invasion that the cost of the war was something like $20bn per day. If that was much too high, the point remains: a state that was something of an economic basket case before is spending its money at a much higher rate than before. At some point, surely, the war becomes unaffordable?
The little 'un is booked in for his jab on Tuesday morning. He's keen for it, so my idea of visiting the toyshop afterwards wasn't actually needed. We'll still go.
There doesn't seem to be much talk about the opening up of jabs for 5-12 year olds on here.
Because it is pointless, far more risk from the man than covid for young children
Morning Malc - did you win yesterday
Morning G, yes I had a great day, few beers etc and came away with more than I started with, including paying the ticket tout over the odds. Lovely in the summer shine. Place was heaving, he over 14k+ i reckon and apart from staff and 2 or so others I was only one wearing mask indoors
The ONS survey is far more accurate, at far lower cost, as to how many people are actually infected.
The ONS survey was selected for retention after a comic bureaucratic bun fight - apparently the "system" wanted to replace it with a new survey, run by the right people in the NHS. When it was pointed out that the ONS survey was cheaper, proven and had a nice history of data, the people involved tried to claim that wasn't the point....
All systems of data gathering have their issues
- mass testing has self selection biases. - The ZOE app is about self reporting symptoms - and through out the epidemic, the number of people thinking they have the symptoms has been vastly greater than those who actually did have COVID. -The surveys find all infections - including vast number of asymptomatic cases.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
The little 'un is booked in for his jab on Tuesday morning. He's keen for it, so my idea of visiting the toyshop afterwards wasn't actually needed. We'll still go.
There doesn't seem to be much talk about the opening up of jabs for 5-12 year olds on here.
Because it is pointless, far more risk from the man than covid for young children
Morning Malc - did you win yesterday
Morning G, yes I had a great day, few beers etc and came away with more than I started with, including paying the ticket tout over the odds. Lovely in the summer shine. Place was heaving, he over 14k+ i reckon and apart from staff and 2 or so others I was only one wearing mask indoors
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
That's the beauty of illegal invasions. The citizenry of the invaded country DO have it both ways. It's perfectly legitimate to kill soldiers of an invading army and NOT legitimate for those soldiers to shoot back. Don't like it? Go home.
Neither side in this conflict gives a fuck about the Geneva Convention but it's definitely NOT a violation to kill civilians who have taken up arms against invaders. There would be plenty of British veterans of Iraq in Den Haag if it were illegal. They should get Article 5 PoW status if they surrender though in practice they are more likely to just get wasted or the more flexibly defined 'unlawful combatant' status that means you can do what the fuck you like with them.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
The use of the daily testing/cases numbers is self comparison - does the number go up or down, over time? With some caveats that can give you an idea of what is happening.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
With respect, that’s utter bollocks. The Russians have been murdering both civilians and soldiers who are under their control, outside of combat, on a widespread scale - alongside rape and torture. As I noted at the end of the last thread, this report from liberated Trostyanets in the east, which was occupied for weeks before being liberated makes it clear that this wasn’t just in the contested suburbs around Kyiv, but across the whole of the Russian invasion. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473 God knows how bad it is and will be in Mariupol.
Similar stories have come from occupied Donbas for many years, but have received far less attention. Occupation, not war. The Russian treatment of Ukraine is not much different from that of the Belgian colonialists in Congo in terms of its humanity.
And, incidentally, the idea of plebiscites in Russian occupied territory is a sick joke
And not much different from what the Red Army did in 1945.
Indeed not. Down to defecating on the corpses of their victims.
And their justification for barbarity hasn’t changed, either. Despite Hitler having been dead for three quarters of a century.
On topic, visited London yesterday to do the tourist bit with some American friends. I was surprised to see how few people were masked on the tube. I had thought it was still a legal requirement and so had gone prepared. When did Khan lift his rules
Given the part of the U.K. with the highest COVID rate also has the strictest mask policy, I think it’s a bit of COVID theatre we can dispense with. If people want to continue to wear masks that’s fine. If they’re infected, or think they are, they should stay home.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
That's the beauty of illegal invasions. The citizenry of the invaded country DO have it both ways. It's perfectly legitimate to kill soldiers of an invading army and NOT legitimate for those soldiers to shoot back. Don't like it? Go home.
Violence committed by civilians is a police matter. If you're a soldier and the police force are on the opposite side to you, you're the bad guy; go home.
If your argument is "they'll make it worse", well, if foreign soldiers are here killing civilians, that's already pretty bad. Keeping your head down and hoping you make it through unscathed is cowardly, wrong, and unsustainable.
You've been in this precise situation have you, and done the decent thing?
Have you read no history at all? Not come across WW2 reprisals by the Germans in occupied countries? Do they not count as making things worse?
The little 'un is booked in for his jab on Tuesday morning. He's keen for it, so my idea of visiting the toyshop afterwards wasn't actually needed. We'll still go.
There doesn't seem to be much talk about the opening up of jabs for 5-12 year olds on here.
Because it is pointless, far more risk from the man than covid for young children
Morning Malc - did you win yesterday
Morning G, yes I had a great day, few beers etc and came away with more than I started with, including paying the ticket tout over the odds. Lovely in the summer shine. Place was heaving, he over 14k+ i reckon and apart from staff and 2 or so others I was only one wearing mask indoors
Really good to hear
Thanks was nice to have a good day out , almost forgotten what it was like
Even if sanctions are not biting, presumably all this fighting is costing the Russians money. There were rumours - scotched - early on in the invasion that the cost of the war was something like $20bn per day. If that was much too high, the point remains: a state that was something of an economic basket case before is spending its money at a much higher rate than before. At some point, surely, the war becomes unaffordable?
While oil revenues continue, that could take a long time. Domestic economic hardship hasn’t previously threatened Putin’s position.
The west needs to supply Ukraine with sufficient weaponry to win, of this could drag on for years, with very bad consequences for us too.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
That's the beauty of illegal invasions. The citizenry of the invaded country DO have it both ways. It's perfectly legitimate to kill soldiers of an invading army and NOT legitimate for those soldiers to shoot back. Don't like it? Go home.
Neither side in this conflict gives a fuck about the Geneva Convention but it's definitely NOT a violation to kill civilians who have taken up arms against invaders. There would be plenty of British veterans of Iraq in Den Haag if it were illegal. They should get Article 5 PoW status if they surrender though in practice they are more likely to just get wasted or the more flexibly defined 'unlawful combatant' status that means you can do what the fuck you like with them.
As with soldiers, not when they are under your control. That this is an illegal invasion renders such excuses even more threadbare.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
That's the beauty of illegal invasions. The citizenry of the invaded country DO have it both ways. It's perfectly legitimate to kill soldiers of an invading army and NOT legitimate for those soldiers to shoot back. Don't like it? Go home.
Neither side in this conflict gives a fuck about the Geneva Convention but it's definitely NOT a violation to kill civilians who have taken up arms against invaders. There would be plenty of British veterans of Iraq in Den Haag if it were illegal. They should get Article 5 PoW status if they surrender though in practice they are more likely to just get wasted or the more flexibly defined 'unlawful combatant' status that means you can do what the fuck you like with them.
There certainly should be British soldiers in the Hague for their war crimes.
You don’t have to look very far on Twitter for evidence of civilians being shot with their hands bound and piles of naked females half burned.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
That's the beauty of illegal invasions. The citizenry of the invaded country DO have it both ways. It's perfectly legitimate to kill soldiers of an invading army and NOT legitimate for those soldiers to shoot back. Don't like it? Go home.
Neither side in this conflict gives a fuck about the Geneva Convention but it's definitely NOT a violation to kill civilians who have taken up arms against invaders. There would be plenty of British veterans of Iraq in Den Haag if it were illegal. They should get Article 5 PoW status if they surrender though in practice they are more likely to just get wasted or the more flexibly defined 'unlawful combatant' status that means you can do what the fuck you like with them.
There certainly should be British soldiers in the Hague for their war crimes.
There never will be. Look at the reaction to Marine A, a war criminal. Treated as if he was the victim.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
He already is an elected representative, bless him.
I did some googling the other day, I think I’ve identified him from the Epping Council website, pretty easy to do based on the personal snippets he’s dropped here. I should get out more.
I did ponder letting the local Labour Party know so they could read his postings. But I thought that would be a bit shitty.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
He already is an elected representative, bless him.
I did some googling the other day, I think I’ve identified him from the Epping Council website, pretty easy to do based on the personal snippets he’s dropped here. I should get out more.
I did ponder letting the local Labour Party know so they could read his postings. But I thought that would be a bit shitty.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
These are all good points.
The only thing I would want to add though is that I know people who have been pretty dismissive of covid, taking the kind of Leon line on it, who have caught it recently and who have felt really rough. None of them died, it's true, so the vaccines did their job brilliantly but they felt 'awful' and were unable to work for c. 5 to 7 days because of feeling too ill. So I don't think it's just about a requirement to isolate. It still makes a lot of people too ill to work. My ex, my son's father, was pretty cavalier about covid until he got it two weeks ago and has now changed his tune.
I'm avoiding entering the debate, which is my own bugbear, about the ongoing danger to vulnerable people and the elderly. There's also ongoing concern about the longterm health effects of this. There was a pretty strong warning from Dr Stephen Griffin yesterday. Is this just another doom-monger scientist as the Mail would have us believe? Or should we be just a wee bit more careful? https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/covid-warning-uk-faces-very-26619063
Both my wife and I got Covid and it was bad. Took 2 months for me to make a complete recovery. My wife got a related chest infection whilst recovering and was put on medication - has now been referred to hospital and on the waiting list for an X ray. Hard to tell if it was any worse though, than a pre 2020 'winter bug'. Obviously there is a lot of caution in the medical system about post COVID symptoms because so little is known about them. But I think there is an acceptance post Omicron that it is futile to try and suppress the virus, we are stuck with trying to slow it down, prevent it through vaccination and treat the symptoms - and this is the right course of action.
Visited Sainsbury for the first time for a couple of weeks yesterday after recovering from Covid - mask-wearing was down to 30%. But there's no doubt that it's a real epidemic now in the everyday sense of the word - it's all over the place. In the absence of much national guidance (I was actually surprised to be toldf to self-isolate for 10 days by the NHS app - if that's the Government position, I missed it), I guess that most people are trying to be a bit cautious where it doesn't interfere with their enjoyment but otherwise just hoping for the best.
There's a particular problem for those employers whose staff can work fairly effectively from home. We are resuming going to the office 2 days a week from tomorrow. There is considerable reluctance among some staff - colleagues who I've spoken to would prefer a model of converting the office into a place to meet, with lots of separate areas and hot desks for people to comre in when there's a reason for a meeting, rather than routine presenteeism. "What's the point of routinely coming in and then having staff go sick?" is the argument. The counter-argument is that we need to attempt to return to a degree of normality sometime, and putting it off further won't make it any easier. Certainly a return to 5 days/week is out of the question for the forseeable future.
What I don't understand is why we're taking our foot off the vaccination pedal. Why aren't we giving new boosters with the same enthusiasm that was so successful last year?
Two things. On boosters there would need to be evidence of what they would achieve. Most who have had three shots will not get dangerously ill with omicron. Sadly though they are not being protected from infection. I doubt a booster with the old vaccine would change that much. A tweaked one might. Given most have also now had Covid, there are probably limited gains from a 4th shot for most of the population.
Secondly, are your colleagues being honest about their reasons? Is it as much that they like wfh and want to do it as much as possible? It’s facile to suggest it’s the risk of illness for why, but is that the only reason?
Ta. Clear short lived boost, but is it not likely to decline rapidly in the same way as the third dose? It’s being used in the vulnerable now or soon I think, but I’m not sure it will be needed for the rest of us.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
The difference he is seeing is very probably a vast number of asymptomatic/minor symptom COVID infections. I've seen suggested rates of completely asymptomatic infection in the 25%+ range. Minor infection to the point that most people think it is just the sniffles - double that.
So it is quite possible that the rate you "see" is half the actual rate as found by the ONS survey.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
With respect, that’s utter bollocks. The Russians have been murdering both civilians and soldiers who are under their control, outside of combat, on a widespread scale - alongside rape and torture. As I noted at the end of the last thread, this report from liberated Trostyanets in the east, which was occupied for weeks before being liberated makes it clear that this wasn’t just in the contested suburbs around Kyiv, but across the whole of the Russian invasion. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473 God knows how bad it is and will be in Mariupol.
Similar stories have come from occupied Donbas for many years, but have received far less attention. Occupation, not war. The Russian treatment of Ukraine is not much different from that of the Belgian colonialists in Congo in terms of its humanity.
And, incidentally, the idea of plebiscites in Russian occupied territory is a sick joke
And not much different from what the Red Army did in 1945.
In a way, it's worse. The Red Army (including the millions of Ukrainians in its ranks) had a massive amount to avenge in 1945. If the UK or USA had been subject to a German invasion, we would have done precisely the same as the Red Army, when the tide of war turned in our direction.
Here, the Russians are murdering civilians during the course of an unprovoked assault.
My 97 year old mother-in-law has finally made it in to hospital. She had to wait 30 hours for an ambulance and, when she got to A&E had to wait another 8 hours in an ambulance before being admitted.
She does not have Covid. She has a broken leg.
Johnson can massage statistics and waffle away about Covid being on the run, but the Health Service is in a shambles and covid appears to be a massive contributing factor.
Even if sanctions are not biting, presumably all this fighting is costing the Russians money. There were rumours - scotched - early on in the invasion that the cost of the war was something like $20bn per day. If that was much too high, the point remains: a state that was something of an economic basket case before is spending its money at a much higher rate than before. At some point, surely, the war becomes unaffordable?
That number was debunked - like a number of other numbers relating to the Russian conflict, it makes sense if it was 20bn "roubles". There was a similar thing with some "lost GDP" numbers out of Russia.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
HYUFD is a fascist sympathiser and a pathological liar. If someone exhibits the same behaviour in a long pattern, they deserve to label, they have earned the label. That multiple people have come to the same view is a decent indicator that they're onto something.
I disagree. My fellow Essex man, even if he's an immigrant from Kent, tells the truth as he see it, and from his perspective. Might, to many of those here, be a strange perspective, but it is, I think, honestly held. Also he's not a Fascist. He sympathises with some fascists, such as Franco, but, for example, I don't recall any racialism from him. My greatest criticism of him is that he appears to have little self-awareness, and consequently can be driven into making some very odd statements, especially on geography, and, even worse, has no sense of humour.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
As opposed to you who would hand Scotland to the Nationalists on a plate and grant them indyref2 until they get the result they want I presume. While also doing sod all to defend the Falklands again which you would also hand back to Argentina on a plate. You are an extreme libertarian on many issues whose posts I often vehemently disagree with, I don't try and get you banned.
I already am an elected representative, even if a relatively minor one.
I would also like you to show any post where I advocated beating up old ladies. We have nuclear weapons as a last resort to defend the UK and British territory, I never advocated their use as a first resort but we have them for reasons of defence the question being at what stage would they ever be used for that
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
That’s a fair point. I think I am just asking what the incidence of genuinely ill people is now, rather than just those who would test positive. My colleague from Southmead who I spoke with on Friday was completely asymptomatic. The numbers that matter are those that are ill and need anti virals in the community (a real success story, apparently) and those going into hospital.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
With respect, that’s utter bollocks. The Russians have been murdering both civilians and soldiers who are under their control, outside of combat, on a widespread scale - alongside rape and torture. As I noted at the end of the last thread, this report from liberated Trostyanets in the east, which was occupied for weeks before being liberated makes it clear that this wasn’t just in the contested suburbs around Kyiv, but across the whole of the Russian invasion. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473 God knows how bad it is and will be in Mariupol.
Similar stories have come from occupied Donbas for many years, but have received far less attention. Occupation, not war. The Russian treatment of Ukraine is not much different from that of the Belgian colonialists in Congo in terms of its humanity.
And, incidentally, the idea of plebiscites in Russian occupied territory is a sick joke
And not much different from what the Red Army did in 1945.
Indeed not. Down to defecating on the corpses of their victims.
And their justification for barbarity hasn’t changed, either. Despite Hitler having been dead for three quarters of a century.
Worse than Labour militants and their Thatcher mania?
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
That’s a fair point. I think I am just asking what the incidence of genuinely ill people is now, rather than just those who would test positive. My colleague from Southmead who I spoke with on Friday was completely asymptomatic. The numbers that matter are those that are ill and need anti virals in the community (a real success story, apparently) and those going into hospital.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
He already is an elected representative, bless him.
I did some googling the other day, I think I’ve identified him from the Epping Council website, pretty easy to do based on the personal snippets he’s dropped here. I should get out more.
I did ponder letting the local Labour Party know so they could read his postings. But I thought that would be a bit shitty.
You'd probably be better off, if you want to cause him problems, letting the local LibDems know.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
That’s a fair point. I think I am just asking what the incidence of genuinely ill people is now, rather than just those who would test positive. My colleague from Southmead who I spoke with on Friday was completely asymptomatic. The numbers that matter are those that are ill and need anti virals in the community (a real success story, apparently) and those going into hospital.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
HYUFD is a fascist sympathiser and a pathological liar. If someone exhibits the same behaviour in a long pattern, they deserve to label, they have earned the label. That multiple people have come to the same view is a decent indicator that they're onto something.
I disagree. My fellow Essex man, even if he's an immigrant from Kent, tells the truth as he see it, and from his perspective. Might, to many of those here, be a strange perspective, but it is, I think, honestly held. Also he's not a Fascist. He sympathises with some fascists, such as Franco, but, for example, I don't recall any racialism from him. My greatest criticism of him is that he appears to have little self-awareness, and consequently can be driven into making some very odd statements, especially on geography, and, even worse, has no sense of humour.
Or else he has an extremely well developed sense of humour - knows exactly what he is saying and enjoys his po-faced avatar winding up folk here...
There's a case to be made for that. After all, we don't necessarily have to project our true selves on here all the time. Part of the sport of this place.
If your argument is "they'll make it worse", well, if foreign soldiers are here killing civilians, that's already pretty bad. Keeping your head down and hoping you make it through unscathed is cowardly, wrong, and unsustainable.
In that case @Farooq, would you agree with the statement that civilians leaving Ukraine and seeking refuge in the west are 'cowardly and wrong'?
If you have the capability to help others get out of harm's way, people who are more vulnerable than you, and you just run for it... yes.
If you get vulnerable people out with you, no.
If you stay and watch your fellow-citizens being murdered and do nothing, yes.
So is your position that only vulnerable people - ie those unable to fight or contribute to the war effort in Ukraine - should be accepted as refugees?
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
The bullying of HYUFD has been going on for months. It’s utterly shameful to see it continue.
When I take a step back and look at the state of things it is so reminiscent of 1992-7.
I think we are underestimating Labour's chances in 2024 and next month will be a bad one for the tories.
It is not at all reminiscent of 1992-97. It's not even reminiscent of 1984-86.
There is nothing unusual about the government's ratings, 28 months into a Parliament. Yesterday's thread was about Ted Heath's victory in 1970. By this stage of the 1966-70 Parliament, the Conservatives were 25% ahead, and winning places like Lambeth and Hackney. At this stage of the 1992-97 Parliament, Labour were 30% ahead, and winning places like Hertsmere.
There are two sorts of midterm, though.
There's midterm on the calendar, roughly halfway between one election and the next. Which is roughly now.
There's also midterm as a state of mind. When the government does the painful stuff that makes it unpopular. In that second sense, midterm has barely started and may not have finished by Autumn 2024. Not BoJo's fault that he lost two years to a pandemic, but them's the breaks.
A lot depends on which reading of midterm is more accurate.
We have said we will stop importing diesel from Russia by the end of 2022
A bit late, if true. We are damaging our own sanctions. It’s absurd.
To be honest it is nothing compared to the EU spending 18 billion euros on Russian gas since the 24th February with no sign of any serious reduction anytime soon
It’s not nothing, we need to take the plank out of eye and start being the change we want to see. Otherwise if we criticise the EU we’re total hypocrites.
That bbc story about Russian diesel is bollocks. It’s nothing to do with “a need”. It’s because if you have a pre-existing contractual agreement to buy hydrocarbon products from a non-sanctioned Russian counterparty and they are able to physically deliver to you, it’s legally very tricky to claim force majeure and terminate the contract.
But we’re in a brief and weird transition period. The coming EU sanctions impacting shipping and P&I insurers are going to make it next to impossible to move Russian crude and product, whether to European ports of Asian ones. Transition will be over by month end.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
He already is an elected representative, bless him.
I did some googling the other day, I think I’ve identified him from the Epping Council website, pretty easy to do based on the personal snippets he’s dropped here. I should get out more.
I did ponder letting the local Labour Party know so they could read his postings. But I thought that would be a bit shitty.
You'd probably be better off, if you want to cause him problems, letting the local LibDems know.
If people start posting and leaking what people posted on here in a private forum then that also opens the way for others to start transferring details to employers, political opponents etc as many have identified themselves on here and made posts they might regret.
However I have not posted anything on here I am particularly ashamed of and not anything on the whole most Epping Forest Conservative voters would not agree with
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
The difference he is seeing is very probably a vast number of asymptomatic/minor symptom COVID infections. I've seen suggested rates of completely asymptomatic infection in the 25%+ range. Minor infection to the point that most people think it is just the sniffles - double that.
So it is quite possible that the rate you "see" is half the actual rate as found by the ONS survey.
I should say that the cohort I am looking at is the pharmacy undergrads. Out of 58 in second year on Thursday, ALL attended practical classes. The third years were almost all in attendance on Thursday and Friday. So that’s why I say that 1 in 13 doesn’t match my experience. But yes it’s a decent sample size, but not as scientific as the ons.
Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas …All parties to the armed conflict in Ukraine are obligated to abide by international humanitarian law, or the laws of war, including the Geneva Conventions of 1949, the First Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions, and customary international law. Belligerent armed forces that have effective control of an area are subject to the international law of occupation. International human rights law, which is applicable at all times, also applies.
The laws of war prohibit willful killing, rape and other sexual violence, torture, and inhumane treatment of captured combatants and civilians in custody. Pillage and looting are also prohibited. Anyone who orders or deliberately commits such acts, or aids and abets them, is responsible for war crimes. Commanders of forces who knew or had reason to know about such crimes but did not attempt to stop them or punish those responsible are criminally liable for war crimes as a matter of command responsibility…
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
He already is an elected representative, bless him.
I did some googling the other day, I think I’ve identified him from the Epping Council website, pretty easy to do based on the personal snippets he’s dropped here. I should get out more.
I did ponder letting the local Labour Party know so they could read his postings. But I thought that would be a bit shitty.
You'd probably be better off, if you want to cause him problems, letting the local LibDems know.
I would not want to go down this road. The contributions to this site from elected representatives are useful and interesting. Insights in to the mind of political activists.
I think HYUFD is trying to find a framework of meaning, out of his political activities. Most of us who have been involved in politics know how this feels. His posts are amusing and harmless.
My 97 year old mother-in-law has finally made it in to hospital. She had to wait 30 hours for an ambulance and, when she got to A&E had to wait another 8 hours in an ambulance before being admitted.
She does not have Covid. She has a broken leg.
Johnson can massage statistics and waffle away about Covid being on the run, but the Health Service is in a shambles and covid appears to be a massive contributing factor.
That’s awful, and I hope she is getting well looked after. The ambulance service has been degraded over the years. The BBC series has documented that very well. Frankly being efficient is great but sometimes events are going to cause a need for much greater capacity that just isn’t there. I don’t know the answer, but it’s surely money and running a service with more slack. And for sure Covid won’t be helping right now as there will be people off sick.
When I take a step back and look at the state of things it is so reminiscent of 1992-7.
I think we are underestimating Labour's chances in 2024 and next month will be a bad one for the tories.
Things could not be more different today compared with 1992-97. Just look at what inflation was like back then...
It's an irony that the Conservatives in 1997 bequeathed to Labour a country in rude economic health and yet the tories took a hammering. But if you look at the polls carefully you can clearly see that Black Wednesday and Britain's exit from the ERM busted the Conservatives: the terrible events of that day when interest rates briefly went over 20% meant that the Conservatives were no longer trusted on the economy.
2022. Snap.
They're finished.
I disagree - and I really hope Labour don't get complacent, as they often were in 2010-15.
The causes of the Conservative's malaise in 92-97 were different. Black Wednesday was a totally self-inflicted mess. Sleaze seems less of an issue now. The problems facing the country are mostly external: higher fuel prices caused by the war; food prices by the war; and Covid on top.
Only Brexit was in our hands, and I don't see that as being a major cause of our problems.
In addition, some of the energy price increase can be put down to the cost of green policies, which the public are in favour of.
IMV external effects are less of a government than internal ones.
There I disagree. Sleaze is a major and ongoing issue now. Boris Johnson has in effect just become the first PM to be found guilty of a crime while in office - literally, in his own back garden. Even if he's never fined because the Met are even more cowardly and corrupt than the government, that's big. Compared to Cash for Questions, it's huuuge.
It may currently have slightly less public cut through, which is not the same thing.
You may well be right. One point though: has he been found guilty of a crime yet?
The point is that others who committed an identical offence have just been fined. That's an implicit admission that what was happening was illegal. It removes the ambiguity about 'laws' vs 'guidelines' that @Cyclefree has been explaining to us with exemplary patience.
In a way, it will now look worse if he isn't fined, as that will imply that he's above the law.
Neither obvious pathway is good for the PM now.
If he's not fined, it won't exonerate him in the public mind, and will make it look like BoJo is above the law. I'd happily bet a shiny sixpence that he does believe that, but it will be a terrible look.
If he is fined, well... he's guilty, isn't he? In such an unambiguous way that even he and his backbenchers can't just ignore.
Unless he goes for a "no criminal record, paid charge so that none of us are distracted by trivia about the past, when we need to vaccinate Ukraine."
Or some other blog of grease that I can't think of because I'm not as brazen as Big Greased Piglet.
"You wouldn't expect him to resign for a parking ticket, would you?" will I, suspect, be the line.
I would expect him to resign for lying to the House. That is the issue here.
However Mr Johnson does not believe he misled the house. Even if the evidence became compelling he would argue he was furnished with erroneous information. If that fails, Mr Johnson is far too important to have to resign anyway.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
The difference he is seeing is very probably a vast number of asymptomatic/minor symptom COVID infections. I've seen suggested rates of completely asymptomatic infection in the 25%+ range. Minor infection to the point that most people think it is just the sniffles - double that.
So it is quite possible that the rate you "see" is half the actual rate as found by the ONS survey.
I should say that the cohort I am looking at is the pharmacy undergrads. Out of 58 in second year on Thursday, ALL attended practical classes. The third years were almost all in attendance on Thursday and Friday. So that’s why I say that 1 in 13 doesn’t match my experience. But yes it’s a decent sample size, but not as scientific as the ons.
As a pharmacist, albeit retired, I'm somewhat gratified. It's also notable that one 'part' of the NHS which seems to have kept going reasonably well is pharmacy.
My 97 year old mother-in-law has finally made it in to hospital. She had to wait 30 hours for an ambulance and, when she got to A&E had to wait another 8 hours in an ambulance before being admitted.
She does not have Covid. She has a broken leg.
Johnson can massage statistics and waffle away about Covid being on the run, but the Health Service is in a shambles and covid appears to be a massive contributing factor.
Sorry to hear it. Whereabouts in the country?
No two ways about it, covid has left the NHS in a mess, and it is not yet over for us, even if the world outside has switched to ignore.
Not that other sectors are in any better shape, the courts, the schools, the universities etc.
On topic. I’m not convinced government starts u turning on it’s got covid done position.
Off topic. Smart move by Khan? If the people back him in an early election the pressure on him has been whackamoled - (are you paying attention Big Dog?) Admittedly the former top cricketer stands on a fake platform, because the United States are not organising international realignment against Putin and have had no hand in Khans troubles because the US have repeatedly told us this, but it means the voters could still back Khan, putting end of threat against him for now.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
The bullying of HYUFD has been going on for months. It’s utterly shameful to see it continue.
Quite. We need to all behave as best we can. Although to skate close to victim blaming he does bring some of it on himself (The Falklands debate recently). But yes, politeness and a bit of respect go along way.
Well, no diesel at my local station, and only one pump with petrol. Apparently there's a shortage in the southeast due to the ****** blockading the refineries.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
As opposed to you who would hand Scotland to the Nationalists on a plate and grant them indyref2 until they get the result they want I presume. While also doing sod all to defend the Falklands again which you would also hand back to Argentina on a plate. You are an extreme libertarian on many issues whose posts I often vehemently disagree with, I don't try and get you banned.
I already am an elected representative, even if a relatively minor one.
I would also like you to show any post where I advocated beating up old ladies. We have nuclear weapons as a last resort to defend the UK and British territory, I never advocated their use as a first resort but we have them for reasons of defence the question being at what stage would they ever be used for that
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
That’s a fair point. I think I am just asking what the incidence of genuinely ill people is now, rather than just those who would test positive. My colleague from Southmead who I spoke with on Friday was completely asymptomatic. The numbers that matter are those that are ill and need anti virals in the community (a real success story, apparently) and those going into hospital.
There has been a substantial disconnection between the numbers in hospital and the MV bed numbers - while the later are increasing, they are nowhere near the ratio they were in previously.
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
I disagree, an so does history. The Oradour-sur-Glane massacre was not excused because of the French partisans, nor were any of the other similar atrocities.
History will write this similarly.
It certainly doesn't excuse people executed with hands tied behind their backs as we saw yesterday. That is a war crime, plain and simple and the crime is murder.
But if you are a 18 year old, poorly trained conscript in an armoured vehicle that seems to have a target painted on it, expecting a lethal ambush at any moment it is not hard to understand how everything that moves looks like a target.
The things we see in Bucha, and elsewhere following the Russian retreats, look to me to be part of the complete breakdown of discipline and command by the Russian forces. Not that the Russian officers are likely to be that bothered. After all, is it worse shooting cyclists and shoppers from an APC, or firing a missile at a theatre full of children. One is just a bit more close, but both are crimes.
The Russian forces were catastrophically defeated and took very heavy casualties in the Kyiv Oblast, and ran amok killing, looting, raping before retreating. The effect will be to harden the resolve of Ukranians in Donbas and Kherson to fight on. It is clear why Mariopol fights on, even a month into the siege.
The officers will not care as this is the way the Russian military acts. They even treat their own troops poorly:
"In 2019, according to the Russian military prosecutor office situation with dedovshchina is getting worse. Incidents of hazing in the army during the 2019 have increased. 51,000 human rights violations and 9,890 sexual assault cases.[8]"
Certainly so. The whole point of basic military training is to turn raw recruits into willing killers, and overcome their existing cultural inhibitions. It doesn't seem to be too difficult to do this, but what is difficult is to control them afterwards.
In general post Vietnam western armies have understood how to direct and contain that violence. There are continued incidents of course, including British troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, and even in training in Kenya. In Russia, as with some other nations the military command doesn't even seem willing to try to contain the mayhem, indeed often relishes it.
Well yes, that's exactly the point. It's down to training, and for the Russians, hazing is part of the training. Even to the point where recruits are sexually abused or killed. It's a step beyond anything we would recognise as 'training', even with some of our problems in training.
Yet as we've seen by the results, it doesn't work. The Russians are doing poorly, in part, because of their training regime.
The hazing is less severe in the UK, but incidents keep happening here too. This was last year:
Part of the problem in the Russian forces is the lack of a real cadre of NCOs to control the process of turning recruits into killers who follow orders.
I didn't say it wasn't a (small) issue here. But note: the police were called. The problem with Russia is that the abuse is institutionalised. It is a desired part of the system.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
That’s a fair point. I think I am just asking what the incidence of genuinely ill people is now, rather than just those who would test positive. My colleague from Southmead who I spoke with on Friday was completely asymptomatic. The numbers that matter are those that are ill and need anti virals in the community (a real success story, apparently) and those going into hospital.
Well over half of those admitted are with Covid, not for. And a rather large number are catching in hospital as they cannot stop the spread. They are too busy to have the ability to isolate them (not their fault).
And we must remember that Putin's aims are clear: he wants all the Baltic states, and perhaps even Poland, under his thumb. We can sit in our nice, warm homes and say: "Oh, he won't do it!", but it's clear he wants to. By military means or subversion, he will try.
This evil needs stopping, now. Russia needs to lose, and the Russian public needs to know the evils that have been done in their name. If Russia can claim a 'win' in Ukraine, then they'll go for more in a few years.
And shame on those who sought to excuse Russia, or blame us for their evils. Or worse, blame the Ukrainians for the evil that has been unleashed upon them.
Can we start by suspending all the MPs who signed the StW petition from parliament?
The are indeed hideous and shocking. My only slight reservation is that when you have lots of morale boosting stories showing everyone up to old grannies making molotov cocktails and saying that they are willing to fight for their homeland the boundaries between combatants and civilians inevitably becomes seriously blurred. Evil though the Russians are the Ukrainians are seeking to have it both ways here.
I disagree, an so does history. The Oradour-sur-Glane massacre was not excused because of the French partisans, nor were any of the other similar atrocities.
History will write this similarly.
It certainly doesn't excuse people executed with hands tied behind their backs as we saw yesterday. That is a war crime, plain and simple and the crime is murder.
But if you are a 18 year old, poorly trained conscript in an armoured vehicle that seems to have a target painted on it, expecting a lethal ambush at any moment it is not hard to understand how everything that moves looks like a target.
The solution then is Don't Send 18 Year Old Poorly Trained Conscripts Into Another Country In Breach Of Your Own Country's Laws.
However we look at this, Russia has acted in such a way that it will be a pariah state for decades. They're back to where they were in the time of Lenin.
Russia will be a pariah state for about six months, after which the lure of money will become irresistible.
Particularly if there is a 'peace' agreement. So what if they've been rewarded with new territory after invading, they'll have stopped. For now. Maybe try again in 2030?
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
He already is an elected representative, bless him.
I did some googling the other day, I think I’ve identified him from the Epping Council website, pretty easy to do based on the personal snippets he’s dropped here. I should get out more.
I did ponder letting the local Labour Party know so they could read his postings. But I thought that would be a bit shitty.
You'd probably be better off, if you want to cause him problems, letting the local LibDems know.
If people start posting and leaking what people posted on here in a private forum then that also opens the way for others to start transferring details to employers, political opponents etc as many have identified themselves on here and made posts they might regret.
However I have not posted anything on here I am particularly ashamed of and not anything on the whole most Epping Forest Conservative voters would not agree with
I agree. Doxxing is deplorable. It recently drove @Charles off the site. While I didn't like his views, he was an interesting insight into an older noblese oblige style of Toryism, albeit one that used a cultivated veneer to mask its beastliness.
My 97 year old mother-in-law has finally made it in to hospital. She had to wait 30 hours for an ambulance and, when she got to A&E had to wait another 8 hours in an ambulance before being admitted.
She does not have Covid. She has a broken leg.
Johnson can massage statistics and waffle away about Covid being on the run, but the Health Service is in a shambles and covid appears to be a massive contributing factor.
Sorry to hear it. Whereabouts in the country?
No two ways about it, covid has left the NHS in a mess, and it is not yet over for us, even if the world outside has switched to ignore.
Not that other sectors are in any better shape, the courts, the schools, the universities etc.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
The testing case figures are now basically meaningless. They are so decoupled from the ONS figure as a proportion that no one is paying them any heed.
They are, but I’ve posted up thread about what the ons is actually measuring now. There is a lot of Covid about for sure, but the numbers don’t really match my experiences, and that’s in the hot spot of Wiltshire.
Hmmmm… who should we trust on this? A sophisticated, scientifically-validated survey conducted by the ONS or turbotubbs’ experience? I wonder why we even bother spending money on public health science when we could just ask turbotubbs “How do things seem to you?”
That’s a fair point. I think I am just asking what the incidence of genuinely ill people is now, rather than just those who would test positive. My colleague from Southmead who I spoke with on Friday was completely asymptomatic. The numbers that matter are those that are ill and need anti virals in the community (a real success story, apparently) and those going into hospital.
There has been a substantial disconnection between the numbers in hospital and the MV bed numbers - while the later are increasing, they are nowhere near the ratio they were in previously.
And what proportion of those chose not to have the protection of the free vaccinations and boosters?
Well, no diesel at my local station, and only one pump with petrol. Apparently there's a shortage in the southeast due to the ****** blockading the refineries.
My opinion of these 'protestors' is rather low.
Like you I don’t like the idea of being out of petrol, but we do understand why the protestors act now? Energy bill crisis, secure energy supplies crisis and climate crisis are all interlinked, they merely want to keep all of our concerns about the climate crisis in the news and in all our heads and in heads of decision makers at this time of balancing decisions? That’s fair enough isn’t it?
My 97 year old mother-in-law has finally made it in to hospital. She had to wait 30 hours for an ambulance and, when she got to A&E had to wait another 8 hours in an ambulance before being admitted.
She does not have Covid. She has a broken leg.
Johnson can massage statistics and waffle away about Covid being on the run, but the Health Service is in a shambles and covid appears to be a massive contributing factor.
That’s awful, and I hope she is getting well looked after. The ambulance service has been degraded over the years. The BBC series has documented that very well. Frankly being efficient is great but sometimes events are going to cause a need for much greater capacity that just isn’t there. I don’t know the answer, but it’s surely money and running a service with more slack. And for sure Covid won’t be helping right now as there will be people off sick.
She was probably kept waiting for an ambulance because they were likely sitting for 8 hours or more at A&E waiting to discharge whoever they had picked up last. It does not take much of that sort of delay to create a massive tailback.
She is now in a hospital 50 miles from her home because that is where they could get her in. The local hospitals were having problems with covid admissions and staff absences.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
The bullying of HYUFD has been going on for months. It’s utterly shameful to see it continue.
I agree. HYUFD's 'crime' in the eyes of other tories is that he's honest.
I wouldn't vote for him but I can respect his transparent and transactional view of politics. I respect absolutely nothing about any other tory on here.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
As opposed to you who would hand Scotland to the Nationalists on a plate and grant them indyref2 until they get the result they want I presume. While also doing sod all to defend the Falklands again which you would also hand back to Argentina on a plate. You are an extreme libertarian on many issues whose posts I often vehemently disagree with, I don't try and get you banned.
I already am an elected representative, even if a relatively minor one.
I would also like you to show any post where I advocated beating up old ladies. We have nuclear weapons as a last resort to defend the UK and British territory, I never advocated their use as a first resort but we have them for reasons of defence the question being at what stage would they ever be used for that
My 97 year old mother-in-law has finally made it in to hospital. She had to wait 30 hours for an ambulance and, when she got to A&E had to wait another 8 hours in an ambulance before being admitted.
She does not have Covid. She has a broken leg.
Johnson can massage statistics and waffle away about Covid being on the run, but the Health Service is in a shambles and covid appears to be a massive contributing factor.
Sorry to hear it. Whereabouts in the country?
No two ways about it, covid has left the NHS in a mess, and it is not yet over for us, even if the world outside has switched to ignore.
Not that other sectors are in any better shape, the courts, the schools, the universities etc.
She is in Shropshire... or she was. The only hospital that could accept her is somewhere near Birmingham
Well, no diesel at my local station, and only one pump with petrol. Apparently there's a shortage in the southeast due to the ****** blockading the refineries.
My opinion of these 'protestors' is rather low.
Like you I don’t like the idea of being out of petrol, but we do understand why the protestors act now? Energy bill crisis, secure energy supplies crisis and climate crisis are all interlinked, they merely want to keep all of our concerns about the climate crisis in the news and in all our heads and in heads of decision makers at this time of balancing decisions? That’s fair enough isn’t it?
Fine to keep things in the headlines of course. Fine to want to reduce our dependence on oil. Doesn’t excuse blocking the road though. And yet when you run over these people, it's you who gets prosecuted.
I think it unlikely the government will u-turn on free tests, if only because limiting testing will itself dramatically reduce the official numbers of cases and that will reduce the political effect of rising infections.
Well ... will it though?
That might have worked a century ago but nowadays with media awareness? It's not just anecdotal, but problems in industries like travel where infections are causing chaos (Dover, Heathrow) as well as schools and NHS trusts. My son's school had to shut the whole of last week because there was so much covid - they ran out of teachers. The scientists may get ridiculed but studies like ZOE, which the Gov't have pulled the plug on, are still reporting and they have a current daily infection estimate at 337,000. https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I think it's an incredibly dangerous political route to go down to think you can pull the wool over people's eyes and, effectively, gag the news. It smacks to me of the last vestiges of a party losing power, not to mention being rather Putinesque.
The right-wingers (I know it annoys people if I call them Far Right) are so hell-bent on pretending this thing has gone away that they've lost all sense of proportion and perspective.
The issue will always be capacity in the health care system. If things get bad in this respect, then the restrictions will come back. This is what a majority of people will accept.
I don't know about the "chaos" you describe - is it the disease that is causing chaos, or the requirement to test and isolate?
Also: the situation in Ukraine puts Covid in to context. The world doesn't stop turning and cannot be put on hold because of Covid.
Good morning
Why anyone takes @Heathener seriously I do not know
Because she often has interesting opinions, as do you, and PB is least interesting when we spend time slagging off other contributors, and focus instead on what they're saying. The mass assault on HYUFD on the last thread was excessive too - fine to deride his opinions, but I don't think we should spend time trying to label him.
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Posters that burst peoples carefully constructed comfort bubbles are essential to PB. If you find yourself thinking poster X sounds weird, it might be a good opportunity to question yourself.
I am not sure many of us need to question ourselves about whether it is a bad idea to beat up grannies, use tanks against people for daring to want a vote, and advocate first use of nukes against Argentina.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
As opposed to you who would hand Scotland to the Nationalists on a plate and grant them indyref2 until they get the result they want I presume. While also doing sod all to defend the Falklands again which you would also hand back to Argentina on a plate. You are an extreme libertarian on many issues whose posts I often vehemently disagree with, I don't try and get you banned.
I already am an elected representative, even if a relatively minor one.
I would also like you to show any post where I advocated beating up old ladies. We have nuclear weapons as a last resort to defend the UK and British territory, I never advocated their use as a first resort but we have them for reasons of defence the question being at what stage would they ever be used for that
Comments
It's possible that some contributors deliberately try to wind us up (not a novel phenomenon, cf. SeanT, malcolmg). A good response to that is not to be wound up.
Given most have also now had Covid, there are probably limited gains from a 4th shot for most of the population.
Secondly, are your colleagues being honest about their reasons? Is it as much that they like wfh and want to do it as much as possible? It’s facile to suggest it’s the risk of illness for why, but is that the only reason?
The Russians have been murdering both civilians and soldiers who are under their control, outside of combat, on a widespread scale - alongside rape and torture.
As I noted at the end of the last thread, this report from liberated Trostyanets in the east, which was occupied for weeks before being liberated makes it clear that this wasn’t just in the contested suburbs around Kyiv, but across the whole of the Russian invasion.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473
God knows how bad it is and will be in Mariupol.
Similar stories have come from occupied Donbas for many years, but have received far less attention. Occupation, not war.
The Russian treatment of Ukraine is not much different from that of the Belgian colonialists in Congo in terms of its humanity.
And, incidentally, the idea of plebiscites in Russian occupied territory is a sick joke
Given the supposed health problems of Mr Putin one wonders if he may make it there. So maybe the termination of his command would be sufficient.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9685943/Marines-recruit-dead-amid-bullying-claims-detectives-probe-suspected-suicide.html
Part of the problem in the Russian forces is the lack of a real cadre of NCOs to control the process of turning recruits into killers who follow orders.
On the other hand, Conrad’s father was a translator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw
He makes a distinction between official Russia and 'kitchen table' Russia, which is potentially relevant here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-60494230.amp
Given the part of the U.K. with the highest COVID rate also has the strictest mask policy, I think it’s a bit of COVID theatre we can dispense with. If people want to continue to wear masks that’s fine. If they’re infected, or think they are, they should stay home.
The nonsense about using "Frightfulness" to cow a civilian population has a long and ugly history. And the Russians have joined that history with enthusiasm.
HYUFD wants to be an elected representative. I would suggest it is incumbent upon all those who think he is dangerously unsuited for any form of elected office to ensure views are widely known so voters are not fooled into supporting him.
There is nothing unusual about the government's ratings, 28 months into a Parliament. Yesterday's thread was about Ted Heath's victory in 1970. By this stage of the 1966-70 Parliament, the Conservatives were 25% ahead, and winning places like Lambeth and Hackney. At this stage of the 1992-97 Parliament, Labour were 30% ahead, and winning places like Hertsmere.
Either way, Labour insiders say it will try to capitalise on partygate during the local election campaign, issuing leaflets in key seats that say: “X number of people died of Covid in this area while Boris Johnson and his aides partied.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnson-feeling-the-heat-as-he-tries-to-save-his-domestic-agenda-jj8zjnbgk
The mass testing is probably not coming back.
The ONS survey is far more accurate, at far lower cost, as to how many people are actually infected.
The ONS survey was selected for retention after a comic bureaucratic bun fight - apparently the "system" wanted to replace it with a new survey, run by the right people in the NHS. When it was pointed out that the ONS survey was cheaper, proven and had a nice history of data, the people involved tried to claim that wasn't the point....
All systems of data gathering have their issues
- mass testing has self selection biases.
- The ZOE app is about self reporting symptoms - and through out the epidemic, the number of people thinking they have the symptoms has been vastly greater than those who actually did have COVID.
-The surveys find all infections - including vast number of asymptomatic cases.
Down to defecating on the corpses of their victims.
And their justification for barbarity hasn’t changed, either. Despite Hitler having been dead for three quarters of a century.
Have you read no history at all? Not come across WW2 reprisals by the Germans in occupied countries? Do they not count as making things worse?
The west needs to supply Ukraine with sufficient weaponry to win, of this could drag on for years, with very bad consequences for us too.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2022/04/our-survey-its-a-thumbs-down-to-sunaks-spring-statement-and-a-thumbs-up-to-johnsons-war-handling.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sunday 3rd April 2022&utm_content=Sunday 3rd April 2022+CID_8307aaf5ccc544ee202bef0e6022e98a&utm_source=Daily Email&utm_term=Our survey Its a thumbs down to Sunaks Spring Statement and a thumbs up to Johnsons war handling
That this is an illegal invasion renders such excuses even more threadbare.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas
This is a bizarre place sometimes.
I did some googling the other day, I think I’ve identified him from the Epping Council website, pretty easy to do based on the personal snippets he’s dropped here. I should get out more.
I did ponder letting the local Labour Party know so they could read his postings. But I thought that would be a bit shitty.
So it is quite possible that the rate you "see" is half the actual rate as found by the ONS survey.
Here, the Russians are murdering civilians during the course of an unprovoked assault.
She does not have Covid. She has a broken leg.
Johnson can massage statistics and waffle away about Covid being on the run, but the Health Service is in a shambles and covid appears to be a massive contributing factor.
Also he's not a Fascist. He sympathises with some fascists, such as Franco, but, for example, I don't recall any racialism from him.
My greatest criticism of him is that he appears to have little self-awareness, and consequently can be driven into making some very odd statements, especially on geography, and, even worse, has no sense of humour.
I already am an elected representative, even if a relatively minor one.
I would also like you to show any post where I advocated beating up old ladies. We have nuclear weapons as a last resort to defend the UK and British territory, I never advocated their use as a first resort but we have them for reasons of defence the question being at what stage would they ever be used for that
The numbers that matter are those that are ill and need anti virals in the community (a real success story, apparently) and those going into hospital.
There's a case to be made for that. After all, we don't necessarily have to project our true selves on here all the time. Part of the sport of this place.
There's midterm on the calendar, roughly halfway between one election and the next. Which is roughly now.
There's also midterm as a state of mind. When the government does the painful stuff that makes it unpopular. In that second sense, midterm has barely started and may not have finished by Autumn 2024. Not BoJo's fault that he lost two years to a pandemic, but them's the breaks.
A lot depends on which reading of midterm is more accurate.
But we’re in a brief and weird transition period. The coming EU sanctions impacting shipping and P&I insurers are going to make it next to impossible to move Russian crude and product, whether to European ports of Asian ones. Transition will be over by month end.
However I have not posted anything on here I am particularly ashamed of and not anything on the whole most Epping Forest Conservative voters would not agree with
But yes it’s a decent sample size, but not as scientific as the ons.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas
…All parties to the armed conflict in Ukraine are obligated to abide by international humanitarian law, or the laws of war, including the Geneva Conventions of 1949, the First Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions, and customary international law. Belligerent armed forces that have effective control of an area are subject to the international law of occupation. International human rights law, which is applicable at all times, also applies.
The laws of war prohibit willful killing, rape and other sexual violence, torture, and inhumane treatment of captured combatants and civilians in custody. Pillage and looting are also prohibited. Anyone who orders or deliberately commits such acts, or aids and abets them, is responsible for war crimes. Commanders of forces who knew or had reason to know about such crimes but did not attempt to stop them or punish those responsible are criminally liable for war crimes as a matter of command responsibility…
I think HYUFD is trying to find a framework of meaning, out of his political activities. Most of us who have been involved in politics know how this feels. His posts are amusing and harmless.
I don’t know the answer, but it’s surely money and running a service with more slack. And for sure Covid won’t be helping right now as there will be people off sick.
No two ways about it, covid has left the NHS in a mess, and it is not yet over for us, even if the world outside has switched to ignore.
Not that other sectors are in any better shape, the courts, the schools, the universities etc.
Off topic. Smart move by Khan? If the people back him in an early election the pressure on him has been whackamoled - (are you paying attention Big Dog?)
Admittedly the former top cricketer stands on a fake platform, because the United States are not organising international realignment against Putin and have had no hand in Khans troubles because the US have repeatedly told us this, but it means the voters could still back Khan, putting end of threat against him for now.
My opinion of these 'protestors' is rather low.
How are you this morning with your covid ?
The success story in treatment/the milder nature of Omicron is shown by
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_mechanical_ventilation_beds
There has been a substantial disconnection between the numbers in hospital and the MV bed numbers - while the later are increasing, they are nowhere near the ratio they were in previously.
She is now in a hospital 50 miles from her home because that is where they could get her in. The local hospitals were having problems with covid admissions and staff absences.
I wouldn't vote for him but I can respect his transparent and transactional view of politics. I respect absolutely nothing about any other tory on here.