Johnson’s failure to apologise for party-gate is making matters worse – politicalbetting.com

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic Boris Johnson is the kind of man to be caught in flagrante delicto with another woman by his wife and denying to his wife he was having an affair.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kle4 said:

BigRich said:

Leon said:

fpt for @MoonRabbit


"Macron is a goner. Do you believe me now?

Macron, Boris, sacked in same year - Putin survives the year."


I am beginning to get weird feelings in me waters about France. There is an awful lot of discontent. As a nation, they haven't thrown a total strop in decades. They like global attention. Le Pen has detoxed the brand and is gathering all the opposition around her. Macron is fecking annoying, even for the French (esp the French?). He is a snob

Le Pen could just snatch it.

As it happens, if she did, I don't think it would be Fascist Apocalypse, more like a spasm of Gaullist Nationalism, but it would frighten all the horses of Europe

I'm no expert and not betting on this, but from memory La Pen was doing quite well last time, until the One on One debates, after the first and before the second round.

She may have rehearsed a bit in the last few years, but I suspect that will be her undoing again this time.

Seems to have been relatively steady - a rise after the first round occurred in April, but then a fall back.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#Opinion_polls

Two points with that graph.

Firstly, that movement at the end (up for Macron, down for Le Pen) is indeed the second round debate as mentioned.

Secondly, you see the bold yellow and blue dots at the end of the graph? That's the actual result - the only poll that matters. For Macron, it's higher than his polling line not just at the end but at ANY point. For Le Pen it's below the blue line at ANY point. That't the "holding your nose" effect for Macron from hard left and moderate right voters.

JosiasJessop said:

As an aside, someone in NASA was tasked to write the operational history of the Shuttle after its last flight in 2011. He had a few interns to help him with the work. They assembled a draft, and asked the interns to read it, looking for any terms they did not understand and which needed explanation. The idea being that the history might be a little too technical.

One of the interns asked: "What is the Cold War?"

Despite bring bright enough to get an internship at NASA, she did not know about the Cold War. Which had ended just twenty years earlier...

Many modern kids probably know less about it.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

BigRich said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic Boris Johnson is the kind of man to be caught in flagrante delicto with another woman by his wife and denying to his wife he was having an affair.

I know a couple where the girl caught her boyfriend NAKED IN BED WITH ANOTHER WOMAN in the middle of the afternoon, and he managed to talk his way out of it, and convince her nothing untoward was going on

It is amazing what people will believe, when they REALLY want to

is that story really about you?

JosiasJessop said:

TimS said:

JosiasJessop said:

BigRich said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

I cant read the article paywall, (unless somebody has a good workaround?)

but it is interesting how its much more pronounced in the USA middling in France and very small in UK.

Leaving the contrary's defences aside, is this mostly a difference of weather you have a memory of the cold war? maybe?

I think Salisbury is a major effect in the UK. Despite all the talk about oligarchs, we've ben fairly bullish against Russia since at least before Crimea/Donbass/MH17, and all the major parties generally agree about that. Whereas in the US, you have the Donald backing Russia, so it splits on partisan divides.

Well except there's no partisan divide in the US survey results. That's the most interesting thing. Perhaps because the young are influenced by the extreme left and the old by the extreme right, both of which are full of Putin apologists?

Thanks, didn't know that. It does make it more interesting...

JosiasJessop said:

As an aside, someone in NASA was tasked to write the operational history of the Shuttle after its last flight in 2011. He had a few interns to help him with the work. They assembled a draft, and asked the interns to read it, looking for any terms they did not understand and which needed explanation. The idea being that the history might be a little too technical.

One of the interns asked: "What is the Cold War?"

Despite bring bright enough to get an internship at NASA, she did not know about the Cold War. Which had ended just twenty years earlier...

Many modern kids probably know less about it.

TimT said:

JosiasJessop said:

As an aside, someone in NASA was tasked to write the operational history of the Shuttle after its last flight in 2011. He had a few interns to help him with the work. They assembled a draft, and asked the interns to read it, looking for any terms they did not understand and which needed explanation. The idea being that the history might be a little too technical.

One of the interns asked: "What is the Cold War?"

Despite bring bright enough to get an internship at NASA, she did not know about the Cold War. Which had ended just twenty years earlier...

Many modern kids probably know less about it.

In 1974, my maths teacher came into school in the morning with a flabbergasted look on her face. She asked us, (15-year olds) if we knew which band Paul McCartney played in. We all knew, of course. What had flabbergasted her was that, talking with her young nephew the night before, he had asked her, "Auntie, did you know that Paul McCartney used to play in a band called the Beatles?"

another_richard said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

I don't know if young people are stupider but I suspect they think they're cleverer than they are.

Which gets them into similar problems as if they were stupider but also fills them with resentment.

JosiasJessop said:

Quite sad: Bruce Willis retires from acting due to brain disorder aphasia

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60934576

I don't think I'd ever heard of aphasia. I hope he does a Michael J. Fox and work towards finding a cure for, and raise awareness of, the illness that afflicts him.

NickPalmer said:

JosiasJessop said:

TimS said:

JosiasJessop said:

BigRich said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

I cant read the article paywall, (unless somebody has a good workaround?)

but it is interesting how its much more pronounced in the USA middling in France and very small in UK.

Leaving the contrary's defences aside, is this mostly a difference of weather you have a memory of the cold war? maybe?

I think Salisbury is a major effect in the UK. Despite all the talk about oligarchs, we've ben fairly bullish against Russia since at least before Crimea/Donbass/MH17, and all the major parties generally agree about that. Whereas in the US, you have the Donald backing Russia, so it splits on partisan divides.

Well except there's no partisan divide in the US survey results. That's the most interesting thing. Perhaps because the young are influenced by the extreme left and the old by the extreme right, both of which are full of Putin apologists?

Thanks, didn't know that. It does make it more interesting...

As I've said in various posts, the far left in Western Europe have really gone off Russia (to the extent that they were ever fans) - everyone from Corbyn and McDonnell in Britain to the Linke in Germany is supporting Ukraine. That doesn't mean that the left is suddenly signed up to the whole NATO/commercial globalisation agenda, merely that this is so like a classic imperialist war that it's impossible for even hardened leftists to accept as a reasonable way to pursue territorial disputes. In the US, alienation from the whole political establishment may be stronger on both far left and far right, so that if Biden and Congress think Russia are bad, it follows that they must be good? Most people don't really do alienation to that degree in Britain, even on the political wings - neither Farage nor Corbyn are really screaming "Down with the whole system".

JosiasJessop said:

Quite sad: Bruce Willis retires from acting due to brain disorder aphasia

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60934576

I don't think I'd ever heard of aphasia. I hope he does a Michael J. Fox and work towards finding a cure for, and raise awareness of, the illness that afflicts him.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

A YES vote in Scotland seemed impossible - until it became highly possible, and David Cameron started weeping on live TV. A Brexit vote seemed ludicrously unlikely - I recall Richard Nabavi predicting it would be 70/30 Remain - and then Brexit won
[snip]

I think it's easy to forget just what a complete shambles the Leave campaign was just a few months before the referendum, especially during that hilarious time when Bernard Jenkin and other Tory Brexiteers tried to get Dominic Cummings sacked from Vote Leave, and ended up having to ask him how to do it, before changing their minds, but then Cummings and Matthew Elliott resigned from the board anyway:

https://www.businessinsider.com/matthew-elliott-and-dominic-cummings-exit-vote-leave-board-2016-2

I think it was probably around then that I posted that I thought that my long-term prediction of Remain winning by 60:40 might be over-cautious and that it could be 70:30.

So, yes, more uncertainty than one tends to think, but there's a bit of a difference compared with the French election in that a referendum is a one-off, whereas in regular elections you can look at how voters behaved in previous contests. No guarantee that it won't be different this time, but previously Le Pen has lost vote share in the final round compared with the polling.

TimT said:

JosiasJessop said:

As an aside, someone in NASA was tasked to write the operational history of the Shuttle after its last flight in 2011. He had a few interns to help him with the work. They assembled a draft, and asked the interns to read it, looking for any terms they did not understand and which needed explanation. The idea being that the history might be a little too technical.

One of the interns asked: "What is the Cold War?"

Despite bring bright enough to get an internship at NASA, she did not know about the Cold War. Which had ended just twenty years earlier...

Many modern kids probably know less about it.

In 1974, my maths teacher came into school in the morning with a flabbergasted look on her face. She asked us, (15-year olds) if we knew which band Paul McCartney played in. We all knew, of course. What had flabbergasted her was that, talking with her young nephew the night before, he had asked her, "Auntie, did you know that Paul McCartney used to play in a band called the Beatles?"

Leon said:

You can get 14/1 on Le Pen winning, right now

To me that seems VALUE, given that latest poll:



Macron (EC-RE): 52.5% (-3.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 47.5% (+3.5)

+/- vs. 19-21 March 2022


Should be more like 7/1 or 8/1?

She's not a rank outsider, not on those numbers

MarqueeMark said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Leon said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

fpt for @MoonRabbit


"Macron is a goner. Do you believe me now?

Macron, Boris, sacked in same year - Putin survives the year."


I am beginning to get weird feelings in me waters about France. There is an awful lot of discontent. As a nation, they haven't thrown a total strop in decades. They like global attention. Le Pen has detoxed the brand and is gathering all the opposition around her. Macron is fecking annoying, even for the French (esp the French?). He is a snob

Le Pen could just snatch it.

As it happens, if she did, I don't think it would be Fascist Apocalypse, more like a spasm of Gaullist Nationalism, but it would frighten all the horses of Europe

Indeed, Macron is most popular amongst the rich, Parisians and the highly educated. Most of the rest of France loathes him.

I still think he will win it but Le Pen has sufficiently detoxified the brand she is more of a viable alternative than 5 years ago or than her father ever was. Even if Macron is re elected, Le Pen will probably win the white working class vote and the rural vote

Bet365 has Macron at 1/33, which is ridiculous in the light of that poll. Le Pen is within touching distance

Like you, I am still pretty sure Macron will win, but in a time of war and plague - literally - nothing is as certain as 1/33

Some things are. I and many others laid Trump as next President in December last year on Betfair to the tune of thousands - not a huge % return, but better than a bank and just as safe. It was taking free money from fantasists.

I accept this isn't on that level, but think you're underestimating how likely the likely outcome is here.

A YES vote in Scotland seemed impossible - until it became highly possible, and David Cameron started weeping on live TV. A Brexit vote seemed ludicrously unlikely - I recall Richard Nabavi predicting it would be 70/30 Remain - and then Brexit won

Ditto Trump in, say, 2015

We are in a time of unusual events

Let's not rewrite history here.

Polling for the 2016 Referendum often showed a lead for Leave. Polling for the 2016 Presidential election sometimes showed a Trump lead and often showed him within 2% (noting that was in fact the Clinton margin in the popular vote). A couple of polls showed a lead for "Yes" in the 2014, and most in the final six weeks indicated it was a good deal closer than the final, double digit margin.

That's not to say Trump and Brexit weren't surprises - they were. But people misremember them as coming completely out of the blue when actually plenty of polls were bang on the money.

Remember, we're not looking at polling a year out from the French Presidential election. It's a month out, with two well known figures and very stable polling over a long period. So your comparison with Trump a year from the 2016 election isn't apt.

Nothing is impossible in a two horse race - I accept that. But you're always addicted to the drama and narrative arc of these things and therefore tend to underestimate the likelihood that the thing that looks very likely to happen on the evidence will indeed happen.

Its worth remembering that Brexit seemed a shock because "received wisdom" was people "couldn't" vote that way surely - not because the polls said they wouldn't.

I agree, and the betting was indeed out of line with the polling as you describe.

But would also say that part of the impact is that Leave was obviously a more consequential vote in terms of post war British politics than Remain would have been. So part of the "shock" wasn't like an FA Cup giant-killing - it was the knowledge that a momentous thing had happened. That's remembered by many in hindsight as the result being totally out of the blue. That's not quite right - part of that feeling is that it was an impactful result.

The reverse is true for those of us who remember the 1992 election. That was genuinely a "shock" in that the polling was badly out of line (some polls had the Tories ahead, but those that did had it easily in hung Parliament territory whereas Major won a majority which wasn't large but perfectly workable until by-elections eroded it away). But did it feel that much of a shock? Certainly not to the same degree - lots of people were pleased, lots were disappointed... but it didn't actually feel all that momentous and impactful (and indeed wasn't - a man who was a fairly moderate, establishment PM continued to be PM).

I predicted 1992 Tory seats to within 2, to my colleagues.

Smug doesn't begin to cover it.

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

I wonder why you chose 1974? My limited understanding of the latest research is that the peak was sometime in the 70s. I have no idea whether this is having a noticeable affect on the workplace.

I have heard from several people - not given to trolling like me - that their younger employees are noticeably dimmer, and more annoying and simultaneously more sensitive and entitled. But definitely dimmer

I'm not entirely making this up to irritate (tho that too)

This article blames environmental causes


https://time.com/5311672/iq-scores-decline-environment/


On the evidence here, it looks like Absolute Peak Human IQ was achieved by people born in the mid 1960s, and then measured in the mid 1970s, which makes total sense

ping said:

Leon said:

You can get 14/1 on Le Pen winning, right now

To me that seems VALUE, given that latest poll:



Macron (EC-RE): 52.5% (-3.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 47.5% (+3.5)

+/- vs. 19-21 March 2022


Should be more like 7/1 or 8/1?

She's not a rank outsider, not on those numbers

Agreed.

And can I just say, as someone who is generally pretty critical of you, it’s great to see a genuine betting post.

More like this please. Let’s get the site back to how it used to be with the bulk of the conversation about betting and value.

kle4 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Quite sad: Bruce Willis retires from acting due to brain disorder aphasia

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60934576

I don't think I'd ever heard of aphasia. I hope he does a Michael J. Fox and work towards finding a cure for, and raise awareness of, the illness that afflicts him.

I don't know if he was in a Nicolas Cage tax trouble type situation, but in the least 5-10 years he seems to have devolved into doing loads of cheap awful movies for as little effort as possible. Which was a shame anyway as he is a better actor than, say, Stallone, ever was.

TimT said:

kle4 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Quite sad: Bruce Willis retires from acting due to brain disorder aphasia

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60934576

I don't think I'd ever heard of aphasia. I hope he does a Michael J. Fox and work towards finding a cure for, and raise awareness of, the illness that afflicts him.

I don't know if he was in a Nicolas Cage tax trouble type situation, but in the least 5-10 years he seems to have devolved into doing loads of cheap awful movies for as little effort as possible. Which was a shame anyway as he is a better actor than, say, Stallone, ever was.

I think within the industry he became known for really just dialing it in.

I stopped watching his films after Expendables 2 and A Good Day to Die Hard. In both of those films, his scenes were unwatchable.

kle4 said:

TimT said:

kle4 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Quite sad: Bruce Willis retires from acting due to brain disorder aphasia

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60934576

I don't think I'd ever heard of aphasia. I hope he does a Michael J. Fox and work towards finding a cure for, and raise awareness of, the illness that afflicts him.

I don't know if he was in a Nicolas Cage tax trouble type situation, but in the least 5-10 years he seems to have devolved into doing loads of cheap awful movies for as little effort as possible. Which was a shame anyway as he is a better actor than, say, Stallone, ever was.

I think within the industry he became known for really just dialing it in.

I stopped watching his films after Expendables 2 and A Good Day to Die Hard. In both of those films, his scenes were unwatchable.

I really lose respect for actors who phone it in. Maybe it's a crappy project you don't care about, you can still have professional pride and make your performance as memorable and impactful as possible. Even in a bad movie, sometimes especially in one, you can stand out and elevate it.

ping said:

Leon said:

You can get 14/1 on Le Pen winning, right now

To me that seems VALUE, given that latest poll:



Macron (EC-RE): 52.5% (-3.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 47.5% (+3.5)

+/- vs. 19-21 March 2022


Should be more like 7/1 or 8/1?

She's not a rank outsider, not on those numbers

Agreed.

And can I just say, as someone who is generally pretty critical of you, it’s great to see a genuine betting post.

More like this please. Let’s get the site back to how it used to be with the bulk of the conversation about betting and value.

bigjohnowls said:

JosiasJessop said:

NickPalmer said:

JosiasJessop said:

TimS said:

JosiasJessop said:

BigRich said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

I cant read the article paywall, (unless somebody has a good workaround?)

but it is interesting how its much more pronounced in the USA middling in France and very small in UK.

Leaving the contrary's defences aside, is this mostly a difference of weather you have a memory of the cold war? maybe?

I think Salisbury is a major effect in the UK. Despite all the talk about oligarchs, we've ben fairly bullish against Russia since at least before Crimea/Donbass/MH17, and all the major parties generally agree about that. Whereas in the US, you have the Donald backing Russia, so it splits on partisan divides.

Well except there's no partisan divide in the US survey results. That's the most interesting thing. Perhaps because the young are influenced by the extreme left and the old by the extreme right, both of which are full of Putin apologists?

Thanks, didn't know that. It does make it more interesting...

As I've said in various posts, the far left in Western Europe have really gone off Russia (to the extent that they were ever fans) - everyone from Corbyn and McDonnell in Britain to the Linke in Germany is supporting Ukraine. That doesn't mean that the left is suddenly signed up to the whole NATO/commercial globalisation agenda, merely that this is so like a classic imperialist war that it's impossible for even hardened leftists to accept as a reasonable way to pursue territorial disputes. In the US, alienation from the whole political establishment may be stronger on both far left and far right, so that if Biden and Congress think Russia are bad, it follows that they must be good? Most people don't really do alienation to that degree in Britain, even on the political wings - neither Farage nor Corbyn are really screaming "Down with the whole system".

Is Corbyn 'supporting' Ukraine? Was he in the build-up to the war, or did he think the west were 'poking' Russia into invading?

He has been far more critical of Putin than Blair and Mandelson and Johnson and Cameron for years now.

No Socialist would support Putin he is a tin pot Capitalist dictator

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

There’s going to be a ‘referendum’ in South Ossetia on being annexed by Russia.

What are the vote share figures going to be?

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

There’s going to be a ‘referendum’ in South Ossetia on being annexed by Russia.

What are the vote share figures going to be?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

A YES vote in Scotland seemed impossible - until it became highly possible, and David Cameron started weeping on live TV. A Brexit vote seemed ludicrously unlikely - I recall Richard Nabavi predicting it would be 70/30 Remain - and then Brexit won
[snip]

I think it's easy to forget just what a complete shambles the Leave campaign was just a few months before the referendum, especially during that hilarious time when Bernard Jenkin and other Tory Brexiteers tried to get Dominic Cummings sacked from Vote Leave, and ended up having to ask him how to do it, before changing their minds, but then Cummings and Matthew Elliott resigned from the board anyway:

https://www.businessinsider.com/matthew-elliott-and-dominic-cummings-exit-vote-leave-board-2016-2

I think it was probably around then that I posted that I thought that my long-term prediction of Remain winning by 60:40 might be over-cautious and that it could be 70:30.

So, yes, more uncertainty than one tends to think, but there's a bit of a difference compared with the French election in that a referendum is a one-off, whereas in regular elections you can look at how voters behaved in previous contests. No guarantee that it won't be different this time, but previously Le Pen has lost vote share in the final round compared with the polling.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Joe Manchin's not going to play ball on the Biden plan for taxing the super-rich:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rogue-democrat-joe-manchin-shoots-down-bidens-billionaire-tax-plan-hqkp9t708 (£)

It's the taxing of unrealised gains that he objects to, as discussed here a couple of days ago:

“You can’t tax something that’s not earned. Earned income is what we’re based on,” he said. “There’s other ways to do it. Everybody has to pay their fair share.”

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

Unfair.

I'd say I'd seen evidence of nuance and development amongst both those posters since they started on here - they are far less ideological and more reasoned now.

This site is an education.

FrancisUrquhart said:

And these are supposed to be the capable soldiers for Russia, not the cast of the Inbetweeners...

One of Kadyrov’s Chechen soldiers steals a motorcycle
https://twitter.com/video_ukraine/status/1509114731222679552?s=20&t=cKWYUQ8YHKuMXzHZYFK7UQ

https://twitter.com/JCTHFC/status/942914685728411649?s=20&t=cKWYUQ8YHKuMXzHZYFK7UQ

Casino_Royale said:

Re: nuclear weapons they're not volatile chemicals that just need a "spark" and oxygen to go off - they need to be detonated in a very specific way to go supercritical and cause a chain reaction at the same time.

Otherwise, the explosives just go off an distribute the plug of plutonium/uranium over an area.

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic Boris Johnson is the kind of man to be caught in flagrante delicto with another woman by his wife and denying to his wife he was having an affair.

I know a couple where the girl caught her boyfriend NAKED IN BED WITH ANOTHER WOMAN in the middle of the afternoon, and he managed to talk his way out of it, and convince her nothing untoward was going on

It is amazing what people will believe, when they REALLY want to

TimT said:

ydoethur said:

TimT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

There’s going to be a ‘referendum’ in South Ossetia on being annexed by Russia.

What are the vote share figures going to be?

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

There’s going to be a ‘referendum’ in South Ossetia on being annexed by Russia.

What are the vote share figures going to be?

91.7% for, 0.9% against.

7.4% sent for re-education?

One thing is for certain, the numbers won't add up ...

theelephant said:

Interesting that the decline in IQ coincides with the start of the almost dysgenic breeding programme we now have in the west whereby low iq women and men have been allowed by the benefits system to breed to their hearts content. At the same time many intelligent women prioritise their career and may have put off having a family to the last minute often having one or zero children. We are now seeing the effects of this which will only get worse and will cause much of the economy to start operating at 3rd world levels

theelephant said:

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

I wonder why you chose 1974? My limited understanding of the latest research is that the peak was sometime in the 70s. I have no idea whether this is having a noticeable affect on the workplace.

I have heard from several people - not given to trolling like me - that their younger employees are noticeably dimmer, and more annoying and simultaneously more sensitive and entitled. But definitely dimmer

I'm not entirely making this up to irritate (tho that too)

This article blames environmental causes


https://time.com/5311672/iq-scores-decline-environment/


On the evidence here, it looks like Absolute Peak Human IQ was achieved by people born in the mid 1960s, and then measured in the mid 1970s, which makes total sense

Interesting that the decline in IQ coincides with the start of the almost dysgenic breeding programme we now have in the west whereby low iq women and men have been allowed by the benefits system to breed to their hearts content. At the same time many intelligent women prioritise their career and may have put off having a family to the last minute often having one or zero children. We are now seeing the effects of this which will only get worse and will cause much of the economy to start operating at 3rd world levels

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

A YES vote in Scotland seemed impossible - until it became highly possible, and David Cameron started weeping on live TV. A Brexit vote seemed ludicrously unlikely - I recall Richard Nabavi predicting it would be 70/30 Remain - and then Brexit won
[snip]

I think it's easy to forget just what a complete shambles the Leave campaign was just a few months before the referendum, especially during that hilarious time when Bernard Jenkin and other Tory Brexiteers tried to get Dominic Cummings sacked from Vote Leave, and ended up having to ask him how to do it, before changing their minds, but then Cummings and Matthew Elliott resigned from the board anyway:

https://www.businessinsider.com/matthew-elliott-and-dominic-cummings-exit-vote-leave-board-2016-2

I think it was probably around then that I posted that I thought that my long-term prediction of Remain winning by 60:40 might be over-cautious and that it could be 70:30.

So, yes, more uncertainty than one tends to think, but there's a bit of a difference compared with the French election in that a referendum is a one-off, whereas in regular elections you can look at how voters behaved in previous contests. No guarantee that it won't be different this time, but previously Le Pen has lost vote share in the final round compared with the polling.

You called it badly wrong but I thought the Leave campaign was an embarrassment.

I basically took matters into my own hands.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Taz said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Joe Manchin's not going to play ball on the Biden plan for taxing the super-rich:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rogue-democrat-joe-manchin-shoots-down-bidens-billionaire-tax-plan-hqkp9t708 (£)

It's the taxing of unrealised gains that he objects to, as discussed here a couple of days ago:

“You can’t tax something that’s not earned. Earned income is what we’re based on,” he said. “There’s other ways to do it. Everybody has to pay their fair share.”

It’s hard to see how it gets through. Manchin is not a surprise.

Yes, the Biden administration seems remarkably poor at calibrating their policy proposals to fit the Senate they actually have, rather than the one they wish they had.

IshmaelZ said:

rottenborough said:

Lynching now a Federal crime as Biden signs new law.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000008222314/ahmaud-arbery-verdict-reaction.html?playlistId=video/race-in-america

A slightly emotional Veep celebrates.

Meaning it was AOK up to now?

theelephant said:

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

I wonder why you chose 1974? My limited understanding of the latest research is that the peak was sometime in the 70s. I have no idea whether this is having a noticeable affect on the workplace.

I have heard from several people - not given to trolling like me - that their younger employees are noticeably dimmer, and more annoying and simultaneously more sensitive and entitled. But definitely dimmer

I'm not entirely making this up to irritate (tho that too)

This article blames environmental causes


https://time.com/5311672/iq-scores-decline-environment/


On the evidence here, it looks like Absolute Peak Human IQ was achieved by people born in the mid 1960s, and then measured in the mid 1970s, which makes total sense

Interesting that the decline in IQ coincides with the start of the almost dysgenic breeding programme we now have in the west whereby low iq women and men have been allowed by the benefits system to breed to their hearts content. At the same time many intelligent women prioritise their career and may have put off having a family to the last minute often having one or zero children. We are now seeing the effects of this which will only get worse and will cause much of the economy to start operating at 3rd world levels

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

theelephant said:

Stark_Dawning said:

theelephant said:

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

I wonder why you chose 1974? My limited understanding of the latest research is that the peak was sometime in the 70s. I have no idea whether this is having a noticeable affect on the workplace.

I have heard from several people - not given to trolling like me - that their younger employees are noticeably dimmer, and more annoying and simultaneously more sensitive and entitled. But definitely dimmer

I'm not entirely making this up to irritate (tho that too)

This article blames environmental causes


https://time.com/5311672/iq-scores-decline-environment/


On the evidence here, it looks like Absolute Peak Human IQ was achieved by people born in the mid 1960s, and then measured in the mid 1970s, which makes total sense

Interesting that the decline in IQ coincides with the start of the almost dysgenic breeding programme we now have in the west whereby low iq women and men have been allowed by the benefits system to breed to their hearts content. At the same time many intelligent women prioritise their career and may have put off having a family to the last minute often having one or zero children. We are now seeing the effects of this which will only get worse and will cause much of the economy to start operating at 3rd world levels

Sterilize the poor!

My point made....its impossible to have a sensible conversation about things such as this. Might as well put your feet up and enjoy the decline

theelephant said:

Stark_Dawning said:

theelephant said:

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

I wonder why you chose 1974? My limited understanding of the latest research is that the peak was sometime in the 70s. I have no idea whether this is having a noticeable affect on the workplace.

I have heard from several people - not given to trolling like me - that their younger employees are noticeably dimmer, and more annoying and simultaneously more sensitive and entitled. But definitely dimmer

I'm not entirely making this up to irritate (tho that too)

This article blames environmental causes


https://time.com/5311672/iq-scores-decline-environment/


On the evidence here, it looks like Absolute Peak Human IQ was achieved by people born in the mid 1960s, and then measured in the mid 1970s, which makes total sense

Interesting that the decline in IQ coincides with the start of the almost dysgenic breeding programme we now have in the west whereby low iq women and men have been allowed by the benefits system to breed to their hearts content. At the same time many intelligent women prioritise their career and may have put off having a family to the last minute often having one or zero children. We are now seeing the effects of this which will only get worse and will cause much of the economy to start operating at 3rd world levels

Sterilize the poor!

My point made....its impossible to have a sensible conversation about things such as this. Might as well put your feet up and enjoy the decline

theelephant said:

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

I wonder why you chose 1974? My limited understanding of the latest research is that the peak was sometime in the 70s. I have no idea whether this is having a noticeable affect on the workplace.

I have heard from several people - not given to trolling like me - that their younger employees are noticeably dimmer, and more annoying and simultaneously more sensitive and entitled. But definitely dimmer

I'm not entirely making this up to irritate (tho that too)

This article blames environmental causes


https://time.com/5311672/iq-scores-decline-environment/


On the evidence here, it looks like Absolute Peak Human IQ was achieved by people born in the mid 1960s, and then measured in the mid 1970s, which makes total sense

Interesting that the decline in IQ coincides with the start of the almost dysgenic breeding programme we now have in the west whereby low iq women and men have been allowed by the benefits system to breed to their hearts content. At the same time many intelligent women prioritise their career and may have put off having a family to the last minute often having one or zero children. We are now seeing the effects of this which will only get worse and will cause much of the economy to start operating at 3rd world levels

theelephant said:

Cookie said:

theelephant said:

Stark_Dawning said:

theelephant said:

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

I wonder why you chose 1974? My limited understanding of the latest research is that the peak was sometime in the 70s. I have no idea whether this is having a noticeable affect on the workplace.

I have heard from several people - not given to trolling like me - that their younger employees are noticeably dimmer, and more annoying and simultaneously more sensitive and entitled. But definitely dimmer

I'm not entirely making this up to irritate (tho that too)

This article blames environmental causes


https://time.com/5311672/iq-scores-decline-environment/


On the evidence here, it looks like Absolute Peak Human IQ was achieved by people born in the mid 1960s, and then measured in the mid 1970s, which makes total sense

Interesting that the decline in IQ coincides with the start of the almost dysgenic breeding programme we now have in the west whereby low iq women and men have been allowed by the benefits system to breed to their hearts content. At the same time many intelligent women prioritise their career and may have put off having a family to the last minute often having one or zero children. We are now seeing the effects of this which will only get worse and will cause much of the economy to start operating at 3rd world levels

Sterilize the poor!

My point made....its impossible to have a sensible conversation about things such as this. Might as well put your feet up and enjoy the decline

theelephant said:

Stark_Dawning said:

theelephant said:

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

I wonder why you chose 1974? My limited understanding of the latest research is that the peak was sometime in the 70s. I have no idea whether this is having a noticeable affect on the workplace.

I have heard from several people - not given to trolling like me - that their younger employees are noticeably dimmer, and more annoying and simultaneously more sensitive and entitled. But definitely dimmer

I'm not entirely making this up to irritate (tho that too)

This article blames environmental causes


https://time.com/5311672/iq-scores-decline-environment/


On the evidence here, it looks like Absolute Peak Human IQ was achieved by people born in the mid 1960s, and then measured in the mid 1970s, which makes total sense

Interesting that the decline in IQ coincides with the start of the almost dysgenic breeding programme we now have in the west whereby low iq women and men have been allowed by the benefits system to breed to their hearts content. At the same time many intelligent women prioritise their career and may have put off having a family to the last minute often having one or zero children. We are now seeing the effects of this which will only get worse and will cause much of the economy to start operating at 3rd world levels

Sterilize the poor!

My point made....its impossible to have a sensible conversation about things such as this. Might as well put your feet up and enjoy the decline

My understanding - and I don't have the stats to hand - is that in general the rich have more kids than the poor, and that the balance of rich kids/poor kids is currently more skewed towards rich kids than at any time in British history. I may be wrong and am too cold to look up the details.

mmm if you are talking about jacob rees mogg...hedge fund level of wealth yes that might be true....these families can afford nannies and or a stay at home wife....im talking more about the broad middle class saddled with mortgage debt

theelephant said:

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

TimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Andy_JS said:

This is disturbing. Young people less likely to support Ukraine and more likely to be pro-Russian in some countries.

"Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine

Isn't some at least of that a matter of youngsters not bothering to keep iup with the news/have an opinion?

Maybe, but there's no excuse for "accidentally" supporting Russia because you haven't been taking an interest in the news.

Nah, for this century America has been led by Bush 43 and Trump, you can see why people aren't enamoured by America.

For some there's no difference between the invasion of Ukraine and the liberation of Iraq in 2003.

I wonder if the yoof also think more globally than we old farts. Despite the fact I have lived most my life outside Britain (46/17 years out/in), I tend to think about Ukraine being a European war and hence 'our' problem, whereas Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Burma, Nagorny-Karabakh, etc... are really other peoples' problems (until we made them ours, where we did). So they are fundamentally different in my mind.

But for many of the younger generation, it appears that what is front and centre for them is the contrast in how the West has reacted to 'like' situations, and hence for them the hypocrisy in our actions.

I doubt they care any more about other places.

I suspect its more some embittered resentment of the western world which manifests itself in supporting anything opposed to it.

Also, young people are just a lot more stupid than us oldsters. IQs are declining across the West

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

And they really obviously ARE stupider. You can see it all around you. Less questioning. Sheeplike. Idiotic. Look at @CorrectHorseBattery and @Gallowgate on here. Fucking morons

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

Today's 21 years olds are not scoring as well as those born in 1974 (for example) and testing in 1995.

However, we all suffer from cognitive decline as we get older, particularly if we're gin-riddled. This mean that a 21 year old today will score more highly on an IQ test (on average) than a 54 year old.

I wonder why you chose 1974? My limited understanding of the latest research is that the peak was sometime in the 70s. I have no idea whether this is having a noticeable affect on the workplace.

I have heard from several people - not given to trolling like me - that their younger employees are noticeably dimmer, and more annoying and simultaneously more sensitive and entitled. But definitely dimmer

I'm not entirely making this up to irritate (tho that too)

This article blames environmental causes


https://time.com/5311672/iq-scores-decline-environment/


On the evidence here, it looks like Absolute Peak Human IQ was achieved by people born in the mid 1960s, and then measured in the mid 1970s, which makes total sense

Interesting that the decline in IQ coincides with the start of the almost dysgenic breeding programme we now have in the west whereby low iq women and men have been allowed by the benefits system to breed to their hearts content. At the same time many intelligent women prioritise their career and may have put off having a family to the last minute often having one or zero children. We are now seeing the effects of this which will only get worse and will cause much of the economy to start operating at 3rd world levels