The French election looking even more likely to be a 2017 re-run – politicalbetting.com

Leon said:

Does anyone have any data on the Covid risks for the very old (85+) and the, er, immuno-compromised?

Imagine they are both jabbed to the eyeballs

2x friends of, etc have severe COPD and in their eighties. Both got it. Both had no idea they had it until they tested (for family visits). So my sample n=2 is reassuring.

williamglenn said:

@michaelh992
🚩Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near #Kyiv - major development if confirmed (and if Ukrainian forces can hold their position)

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506256037443219461

If accurate and Ukrainian army clams do seem to have been mostly reasonably close to the truth then this is the first significant encirclement of Russian forces so far (I think that right?)

Are the Ukrainians going to be able to hold the encirclement? which is another way of saying 'do the Russians have enough combat power to force a brake out' I don't know. perhaps the Russians with be able to use there supremacy in the air to resupply or reinforce, again TBC. but perhaps we will see the first large scale surending of Russian Troops.

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Dura_Ace said:

JosiasJessop said:

Interesting if true:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CbZuJV-MTZO/

The first Russian soldier to hand over a fully-working T-80 tank to the Ukrainians. He will get $10k after the war, and can apply for Ukrainian citizenship.

I wonder if he killed the other two crew.

Golly, I’ve not been keeping up, can an MBT get away with only 3 crew? I recall at least one of the Russian tanks has automatic loading for the main gun, the T80 I guess.

Been reading a bit about French tank design between the wars and they tended to go for one man turrets (ie the commander had to do a helluva lot) because of the manpower shortage after WWI.

Yes. In one of them (the Char B family) the main gun was fixed in the hull, no traverse, so the driver did the aiming and firing as well as the driving (admittedly with a continuously variable oil-hydraulic transmission if memory serves, though I might be wrong on that point). One other chap loaded the main gun in between. I think the fourth just sat around and handed the commander ammunition when the commander wasn't too busy aiming and firing his own turret cannon [edit], commanding and keeping on top of situational awareness. Not the most balanced workforce ever. Can't recall who operated the radio ...

The current French one - Leclerc - has 3 crew.

Dura_Ace said:

Applicant said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Scott_xP said:

Boris Johnson “cut short” last week’s Middle East-Saudi trip to return for his wife’s birthday party reports the Spectator and Sunday Times

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-attends-another-party https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1506209989173686273/photo/1

Husband of the year.

This whinge definitely fails the "what if he'd done the opposite" test.

The interesting question is why he had to change the schedule of his tyrant arse-kissing trip at the last minute. The date of his wife's birthday can't have been a surprise.

It was a great excuse to curtail a meeting with unsavoury people. Beats putting the cat out.

StillWaters said:

Scott_xP said:

Boris Johnson “cut short” last week’s Middle East-Saudi trip to return for his wife’s birthday party reports the Spectator and Sunday Times

👀

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-attends-another-party https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1506209989173686273/photo/1

Have you never scheduled a business trip around personal commitments?

Not with a murderous totalitarian regime.

"90% of comments I see about iSage are people complaining about them having the oxygen of publicity."

They're a self-appointed group of politicians with left-wing leanings. Annoyed that no one else recognises their expertise. They should call themselves pSage for political Sage.

The only mention I can see to IFR for Omicron being 3% for oldies is an guess from January based on no actual evidence of Omicron or vs triple jab etc. You don't normally get good model of IFR for a quite a while after the wave as it take a long time to try and get to the bottom of infection vs cases etc.

It was estimated at 5% for over 80% across the whole pandemic (before Omicron)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/covid-19-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio-about/

So with Omicron, triple jab, antivirals, the treatments in hospital, the better treatment plans, etc, I think its unlikely its as high as 3%.

Leon said:

Does anyone have any data on the Covid risks for the very old (85+) and the, er, immuno-compromised?

Imagine they are both jabbed to the eyeballs

Just on hospitalisation, but from data in Canada, it looks like this (versus Omicron):


Historically, fatality rates have been between a quarter and a half of the hospitalisation rates (higher for the older and more at risk; lower for younger and less at risk). This rate against hospitalisation has been reducing as better treatments become available.

If the at-risk person takes Paxlovid within 5 days of onset of symptoms, hospitalisation and fatality chances both reduce by almost exactly a factor of ten.

Theuniondivvie said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Dura_Ace said:

JosiasJessop said:

Interesting if true:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CbZuJV-MTZO/

The first Russian soldier to hand over a fully-working T-80 tank to the Ukrainians. He will get $10k after the war, and can apply for Ukrainian citizenship.

I wonder if he killed the other two crew.

Golly, I’ve not been keeping up, can an MBT get away with only 3 crew? I recall at least one of the Russian tanks has automatic loading for the main gun, the T80 I guess.

Been reading a bit about French tank design between the wars and they tended to go for one man turrets (ie the commander had to do a helluva lot) because of the manpower shortage after WWI.

Yes. In one of them (the Char B family) the main gun was fixed in the hull, no traverse, so the driver did the aiming and firing as well as the driving (admittedly with a continuously variable oil-hydraulic transmission if memory serves, though I might be wrong on that point). One other chap loaded the main gun in between. I think the fourth just sat around and handed the commander ammunition when the commander wasn't too busy aiming and firing his own turret cannon [edit], commanding and keeping on top of situational awareness. Not the most balanced workforce ever. Can't recall who operated the radio ...

Le multitasking

BTW, that Maxim which someone used to pimp his wheels on the previous thread - where/when was that photo taken? Somalia?

It's an old Sov one, the variant with the water filler cap replaced by a tractor cap so you can cram in snow when the cooling water begins to boil away.

The original caption said in use by militants in Ukraine (war in Donbass). I believe there are quite a few about eg

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32098/ukrainian-troops-are-still-using-this-pre-world-war-i-era-maxim-machine-gun-in-combat

If it's anything like the Vickers (basically the same design) it probably lasts for almost ever if well maintained. Must go and fish out my book on the thing to read up about it ...

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimT said:

TimT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Dura_Ace said:

JosiasJessop said:

Interesting if true:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CbZuJV-MTZO/

The first Russian soldier to hand over a fully-working T-80 tank to the Ukrainians. He will get $10k after the war, and can apply for Ukrainian citizenship.

I wonder if he killed the other two crew.

Golly, I’ve not been keeping up, can an MBT get away with only 3 crew? I recall at least one of the Russian tanks has automatic loading for the main gun, the T80 I guess.

Been reading a bit about French tank design between the wars and they tended to go for one man turrets (ie the commander had to do a helluva lot) because of the manpower shortage after WWI.

Yes. In one of them (the Char B family) the main gun was fixed in the hull, no traverse, so the driver did the aiming and firing as well as the driving (admittedly with a continuously variable oil-hydraulic transmission if memory serves, though I might be wrong on that point). One other chap loaded the main gun in between. I think the fourth just sat around and handed the commander ammunition when the commander wasn't too busy aiming and firing his own turret cannon [edit], commanding and keeping on top of situational awareness. Not the most balanced workforce ever. Can't recall who operated the radio ...

Le multitasking

L'overload cognitif

Actually learnt a new phrase in French today: la surcharge cognitive

Unfortunatement, je ne comprends pas le français!

Graduate tax?

Leon said:

The more I dig into "ungrateful cow" the more convinced I become that about 30% of Twitter users are fake

It is surely very easy to write a programme that can create multiple fake accounts, and also make them a lot more credible than


DavidJo66933798

or

RobertintheUK1


All you need to do is shove in random retweets, pictures of animals, pictures of meals, nothing actually personal which needs curating, but which give a veneer of credibility. Build up a few followers by following people who automatically follow back (that seems to be another giveaway, people with, say, 5,000 followers who also follow about 5,000 others)

Then every so often pump out a really contentious, radical tweet, from the left or the right, stoking some fiery debate. Job done in Moscow

It will mostly likely be similar to the "widespread" racist abuse of the England footballers who missed penalties in the Euros. There will be some, massively amplified by bad actors e.g. How many people have actually been convicted of racist tweets from that incident, I think it is a handful.

Leon said:

The more I dig into "ungrateful cow" the more convinced I become that about 30% of Twitter users are fake

It is surely very easy to write a programme that can create multiple fake accounts, and also make them a lot more credible than


DavidJo66933798

or

RobertintheUK1


All you need to do is shove in random retweets, pictures of animals, pictures of meals, nothing actually personal which needs curating, but which give a veneer of credibility. Build up a few followers by following people who automatically follow back (that seems to be another giveaway, people with, say, 5,000 followers who also follow about 5,000 others)

Then every so often pump out a really contentious, radical tweet, from the left or the right, stoking some fiery debate. Job done in Moscow

Wasn't there something a few weeks ago to do with blocking Russian activity that saw a dramatic drop in these type of tweets.

Mr. Farooq, the internet has so many people on it that you'll find support for anything, and bots can easily hyperinflate 'likes' and suchlike. Not only in favour of a daft side, but against it and broadening it to attack a larger group (hence attacking pro-EU types as being xenophobes or anti-EU types as being unpatriotic, something which did, sadly, probably also occur naturally).

All they do is say something daft and watch arguments start and balloon.

Anyway, I am going to veer in the approximate direction of work.

Au revoir, mes amis.

Starmer struggling on R4 WATO. Not least because Sarah Montague is asking entirely stupid questions and not letting him answer any questions.

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Another one



"Got help me for defending Boris Johnson but this ungrateful cow paid the price for her own arrogance and stupidity.

As it is she got off lightly."


'Got' instead of God? Really?

And the profile:

Robert in the UK

@RobertintheUK1

White working British man

Joined March 2022

1 Following
1 Follower


"White working British man"

Yes, that's how British people describe themselves

This is laughable. We are being played by Russia. Calm the F down

I can't help thinking the Russians bots have got their tactics wrong here. Shouldn't they be generating sympathy for Nazanin while portraying Boris as a bumbling incompetent imbecile. All this is simply deflecting deflecting criticism from the saviour of Ukraine.

The modius operandi of the Russian troll farms isn't always to push a single particular narrative, rather to cause disharmony e.g. in the US, it is well known their Facebook group tactics e.g. they ran black Christian groups and white Christian groups, etc etc etc, and they would then group in here is a story about a nice black church goer who was racially abused, and in the white group, one about a nice white church goers attacked by black individual.

I wouldn't be surprised if they are doing the same here, push the ungrateful angle to some, push the look at what she actually said about how useless Boris is to others.

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Wales' first minister is not ruling out keeping the country's remaining Covid restrictions beyond their expiry date of next Monday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-60834936

He can do what he likes but by the evidence around this area nobody is listening anymore

Indeed I would suggest that is across the UK

Not round here. Masks still universal in supermarkets and everyone I know is curbing social activity and taking LFTs before every meeting. Restaurants are busy, but with staff masked and spacing between seats. Various major events are still being postponed. The perception is that it's getting worse again as we all know people who've got it and mostly report it's quite nasty - not really that people think they'll die, but that they'll have an unpleasant two weeks, so just not worth it for the sake of shopping without a mask. As always it';s a cost-benefit thing - if people really want to do something they will and take any reasonable risk, but if they're not that bothered then they won't.

Really? I find this almost impossible to believe. Where is 'round here'? Masking is a rare enough sight on London buses now, never mind in restaurants. And as for postponing events, er, what? Nothing is being postponed here. Life is back to normal.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

The more I dig into "ungrateful cow" the more convinced I become that about 30% of Twitter users are fake

It is surely very easy to write a programme that can create multiple fake accounts, and also make them a lot more credible than


DavidJo66933798

or

RobertintheUK1


All you need to do is shove in random retweets, pictures of animals, pictures of meals, nothing actually personal which needs curating, but which give a veneer of credibility. Build up a few followers by following people who automatically follow back (that seems to be another giveaway, people with, say, 5,000 followers who also follow about 5,000 others)

Then every so often pump out a really contentious, radical tweet, from the left or the right, stoking some fiery debate. Job done in Moscow

It will mostly likely be similar to the "widespread" racist abuse of the England footballers who missed penalties in the Euros. There will be some, massively amplified by bad actors e.g. How many people have actually been convicted of racist tweets from that incident, I think it is a handful.

My guess is that the actual number of REAL people saying "ungrateful cow" is pretty damn small. It has been taken up by bots who have multiplied it by 100s. And they've got a reaction from the left, and so an entire divisive and confected row has exploded over Twitter, which is basically all created by Russia

This is a real problem, for all in the West, on every side

I remember that SNP bot that said outrageous things, which made the Nat cause look bad, until we investigated and found out she, too, was fake

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Farooq, the internet has so many people on it that you'll find support for anything, and bots can easily hyperinflate 'likes' and suchlike. Not only in favour of a daft side, but against it and broadening it to attack a larger group (hence attacking pro-EU types as being xenophobes or anti-EU types as being unpatriotic, something which did, sadly, probably also occur naturally).

All they do is say something daft and watch arguments start and balloon.

Anyway, I am going to veer in the approximate direction of work.

Au revoir, mes amis.

As PoliticsForAll showed, if you know how to play the algorithm right, you can generate huge expose with what was thought to be a pretty simple setup and a few bot accounts.

I read the other day for instance that at one point you got pumped by the algorithm if you put famous people's handle in your tweet, then they changed it to as long as not the start, now it more like to get pumped if you write a thread and the handles are in the second or third tweet of the thread.

I would guess that all the "flashing siren" emoji stuff at one point got you pumped. And I notice loads of people now latched on to that.

LostPassword said:

williamglenn said:

@michaelh992
🚩Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near #Kyiv - major development if confirmed (and if Ukrainian forces can hold their position)

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506256037443219461

Wonder how many Russians are in the (claimed pocket)?

Jomini's map would suggest 10-12 BTGs, but with many of them already degraded by losses.

There have been a few times when Ukrainian claims have been a bit exaggerated. The supply lines might be cut, without the Ukrainians necessarily being in a position to prevent a retreat.

Someone who appears to know more about this stuff than I do, claims the Ukrainian tactic is to reoccupy pockets of territory near the Russian positions, which has the twin purpose of temporarily cutting supply lines and forcing the Russians to expend their resources on winning those areas back. They are not intended to be permanent positions.

Much of PB collectively ponders the logistics of nipping down to @NickPalmer's local Waitrose to see for themselves.
.

Farooq said:

williamglenn said:

@michaelh992
🚩Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near #Kyiv - major development if confirmed (and if Ukrainian forces can hold their position)

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506256037443219461

So after a month of fighting to get in, they could end up fighting to get out.
Don't stop til you get to Moscow, Russian lads. And when you get there, do the world a favour.

For the most part, I find the heavy metal music soundtracks to the twitter videos of Russian tanks and soldiers being hit hard to stomach (without in any way being a criticism of the Ukrainians doing it - they have been provoked beyond my comprehension).

One video had a soundtrack of Wir trinken zusammen which I think is entirely appropriate to what the Ukrainians are doing. Here are the lyrics:

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=wir+trinken+zusammen+lyrics&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Edit: actual title Was wollen wir trinken

I heard these explosions. And now it can be reported. A Russian missile was shot down in Kyiv. Its remains float in the Dnipro
#RussianWarCrimes https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1506267373975838730/photo/1

Here's an interesting case


He looks much more plausible. He's done many tweets. But on examination all of them are curiously anodyne: endless retweets about animal adoptions, or meals he has cooked (noticeably, without anything personal in the shot nothing that might identify who he is, if he exists)

About every tenth or twentieth tweet he will say something controversial. Either anti-immigrant, anti-Islam, or anti-vax. He's really anti-vax. He also goes on about Epstein and other "conspiracies" - true or not

Is he real?

It is genuinely hard to say

His bio suggests not


Jim smith

@Jimsmit22773039

Rock music, boxing fishing motor sport, proud dad and grandad, love cooking.

Kent

Joined January 2021

https://twitter.com/Jimsmit22773039/status/1505967991699263494?s=20&t=qakBoKxGlGGgM5apyBdEGA


Again, look at the unusual follower numbers:

2,115 Following
1,972 Followers

He's never mentioned boxing or fishing in his timeline, as far as I can see. No pics of his kids or grand kids. He also said "ungrateful cow"

Yet maybe I am doing him a disservice, and Jimsmith22773039 is real. But who would choose a Twitter name like that?

If he is a bot, the bots are getting better

williamglenn said:

@michaelh992
🚩Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near #Kyiv - major development if confirmed (and if Ukrainian forces can hold their position)

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506256037443219461

Another Russian convoy bites the dust - location not disclosed, just "behind enemy lines"

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506264161524887555?cxt=HHwWhsC92cfRqecpAAAA

Nigelb said:

I agree with this.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/how-democracy-can-win-ukraine/627125/
...Before you can achieve something, you have to imagine what it will look like. And in this war, victory can be imagined without difficulty. It means that Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy, with the right to choose its own leaders and make its own treaties. There will be no pro-Russian puppet regime in Kyiv, no need for a prolonged Ukrainian resistance, no continued fighting. The Russian army retreats back over the borders. Maybe those borders could change, or maybe Ukraine could pledge neutrality, but that is for the Ukrainians to decide and not for outsiders to dictate. Maybe international peacekeepers are needed. Whatever happens, Ukraine must have strong reasons to believe that Russian troops will not quickly return...

Agree with this. And also the reason why I think we need to prioritise the viability, and hopefully the eventual success, of Ukraine over defeating Russia.

Russia does need to be defeated and seen to be defeated to impose an unsustainable cost on similar brutality. But that comes second and could take a long time.

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Wales' first minister is not ruling out keeping the country's remaining Covid restrictions beyond their expiry date of next Monday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-60834936

He can do what he likes but by the evidence around this area nobody is listening anymore

Indeed I would suggest that is across the UK

Not round here. Masks still universal in supermarkets and everyone I know is curbing social activity and taking LFTs before every meeting. Restaurants are busy, but with staff masked and spacing between seats. Various major events are still being postponed. The perception is that it's getting worse again as we all know people who've got it and mostly report it's quite nasty - not really that people think they'll die, but that they'll have an unpleasant two weeks, so just not worth it for the sake of shopping without a mask. As always it';s a cost-benefit thing - if people really want to do something they will and take any reasonable risk, but if they're not that bothered then they won't.

Where are you Nick? Buckinghamshire? I am seeing almost no-one wearing masks in supermarkets, restaurants or shops. And certainly no curb in social activity at all. Saturday night in Nottingham was absolutely heaving. And masks were almost non existent both in the restaurants and at the Theatre Royal.

Nigelb said:

Same old...
https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1506239276094165002
NEW: Damning report by HMIC into corruption in Met Police finds the force is "not fit for purpose".

- Cash, jewellery, drugs regularly 'go missing'. Access code for one store was scribbled on the door

- Over 100 new recruits have previous convictions for crimes including theft

Over 200 warrant cards missing, too.

Seems odd. A crime and policing commisioner in Wiltshire was disbarred after election because of a traffic offence, yet the Met employs people with convictions for theft?

Fishing said:

CD13 said:

"90% of comments I see about iSage are people complaining about them having the oxygen of publicity."

They're a self-appointed group of politicians with left-wing leanings. Annoyed that no one else recognises their expertise. They should call themselves pSage for political Sage.

I think CSage (Commie Sage or Corbyn's Sage) would be better.

Perhaps we (PB) should setup iStupid. We can provide people to pontificate on any subject - at half the price. At least we will be honest about the value in our witterings.

TimT said:

Farooq said:

williamglenn said:

@michaelh992
🚩Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near #Kyiv - major development if confirmed (and if Ukrainian forces can hold their position)

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506256037443219461

So after a month of fighting to get in, they could end up fighting to get out.
Don't stop til you get to Moscow, Russian lads. And when you get there, do the world a favour.

For the most part, I find the heavy metal music soundtracks to the twitter videos of Russian tanks and soldiers being hit hard to stomach (without in any way being a criticism of the Ukrainians doing it - they have been provoked beyond my comprehension).

One video had a soundtrack of Wir trinken zusammen which I think is entirely appropriate to what the Ukrainians are doing. Here are the lyrics:

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=wir+trinken+zusammen+lyrics&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Edit: actual title Was wollen wir trinken

There was a good video (now taken down) of my old regiment in a contact in Afghan and the soundtrack was Monster (What's That Coming Over the Hill).

kjh said:

Northern_Al said:

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

Anti-Woke Culture Wars are working in the USA

Ramp them up over here, Boris

“Democrats working to save their slim majority in the House in November’s elections have been sounding alarm bells lately over research showing that Republican attacks on culture-war issues are working, particularly with center-left, Hispanic and independent voters.”

NYT ($$)

You are actually calling more more culture warring now?

FFS. Get a life.

No, I am calling for "more culture war" as a way of trolling lefties and getting them angry, so as to distract them from more important things, like the actual culture war

I want a meta-culture war. Duh

Do you want the lefties to be as angry as you are about Remoaners trying to thwart Brexit back in the day, or not quite that angry?

My head is spinning. Can someone tell me what I'm supposed to be angry about please? Currently I'm laid back about culture wars and just a bit miffed about Brexit.

Pineapple on pizza, obvs.....

LostPassword said:

williamglenn said:

@michaelh992
🚩Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near #Kyiv - major development if confirmed (and if Ukrainian forces can hold their position)

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506256037443219461

Wonder how many Russians are in the (claimed pocket)?

Jomini's map would suggest 10-12 BTGs, but with many of them already degraded by losses.

There have been a few times when Ukrainian claims have been a bit exaggerated. The supply lines might be cut, without the Ukrainians necessarily being in a position to prevent a retreat.

10-12 BTGs that's close to 10% of the 125 BTG that supposedly Russia had at the start, this is massive.

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I see #sendherback is trending on twitter. Seems to be prevalent in a particular dank little corner of my own polity, nice teeth and cared for nails seem to be great triggers of rage for these people.

How unpleasant. Twitter really can be a cesspit.

I also notice #ungratefulcow is trending !!!!

She's entitled to her view, and I imagine she feels rather strongly about the whole thing. I hope the MP's investigation is of some use. We thrashed around on here about why it only happened now, and its surely because the money was paid. We disagree to what extent if any Johnson's foolish words played a role, but at heart she was a hostage, in the same way that Terry Waite was all those years ago (different country, and not perhaps an exact comparison).

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 40% (+1)
CON: 35% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
REFUK: 2% (-2)

via @RedfieldWilton, 20 Mar
Chgs. w/ 13 Mar

IanB2 said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 40% (+1)
CON: 35% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
REFUK: 2% (-2)

via @RedfieldWilton, 20 Mar
Chgs. w/ 13 Mar

@HYUFD please explain
@bigjohnowls please explain

BigRich said:

LostPassword said:

williamglenn said:

@michaelh992
🚩Ukrainian armed forces claim that they have cut the Russian supply lines to Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near #Kyiv - major development if confirmed (and if Ukrainian forces can hold their position)

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506256037443219461

Wonder how many Russians are in the (claimed pocket)?

Jomini's map would suggest 10-12 BTGs, but with many of them already degraded by losses.

There have been a few times when Ukrainian claims have been a bit exaggerated. The supply lines might be cut, without the Ukrainians necessarily being in a position to prevent a retreat.

10-12 BTGs that's close to 10% of the 125 BTG that supposedly Russia had at the start, this is massive.

Some reckon only 95....

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

The more I dig into "ungrateful cow" the more convinced I become that about 30% of Twitter users are fake

It is surely very easy to write a programme that can create multiple fake accounts, and also make them a lot more credible than


DavidJo66933798

or

RobertintheUK1


All you need to do is shove in random retweets, pictures of animals, pictures of meals, nothing actually personal which needs curating, but which give a veneer of credibility. Build up a few followers by following people who automatically follow back (that seems to be another giveaway, people with, say, 5,000 followers who also follow about 5,000 others)

Then every so often pump out a really contentious, radical tweet, from the left or the right, stoking some fiery debate. Job done in Moscow

It will mostly likely be similar to the "widespread" racist abuse of the England footballers who missed penalties in the Euros. There will be some, massively amplified by bad actors e.g. How many people have actually been convicted of racist tweets from that incident, I think it is a handful.

My guess is that the actual number of REAL people saying "ungrateful cow" is pretty damn small. It has been taken up by bots who have multiplied it by 100s. And they've got a reaction from the left, and so an entire divisive and confected row has exploded over Twitter, which is basically all created by Russia

This is a real problem, for all in the West, on every side

I remember that SNP bot that said outrageous things, which made the Nat cause look bad, until we investigated and found out she, too, was fake

Are you suggesting "Young Conservative Network" are not REAL?

IanB2 said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 40% (+1)
CON: 35% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
REFUK: 2% (-2)

via @RedfieldWilton, 20 Mar
Chgs. w/ 13 Mar

Kyiv here we come..

Mexicanpete said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

The more I dig into "ungrateful cow" the more convinced I become that about 30% of Twitter users are fake

It is surely very easy to write a programme that can create multiple fake accounts, and also make them a lot more credible than


DavidJo66933798

or

RobertintheUK1


All you need to do is shove in random retweets, pictures of animals, pictures of meals, nothing actually personal which needs curating, but which give a veneer of credibility. Build up a few followers by following people who automatically follow back (that seems to be another giveaway, people with, say, 5,000 followers who also follow about 5,000 others)

Then every so often pump out a really contentious, radical tweet, from the left or the right, stoking some fiery debate. Job done in Moscow

It will mostly likely be similar to the "widespread" racist abuse of the England footballers who missed penalties in the Euros. There will be some, massively amplified by bad actors e.g. How many people have actually been convicted of racist tweets from that incident, I think it is a handful.

My guess is that the actual number of REAL people saying "ungrateful cow" is pretty damn small. It has been taken up by bots who have multiplied it by 100s. And they've got a reaction from the left, and so an entire divisive and confected row has exploded over Twitter, which is basically all created by Russia

This is a real problem, for all in the West, on every side

I remember that SNP bot that said outrageous things, which made the Nat cause look bad, until we investigated and found out she, too, was fake

Are you suggesting "Young Conservative Network" are not REAL?

Can't see any tweet on their account, but perhaps it was deleted?

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Wales' first minister is not ruling out keeping the country's remaining Covid restrictions beyond their expiry date of next Monday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-60834936

He can do what he likes but by the evidence around this area nobody is listening anymore

Indeed I would suggest that is across the UK

Not round here. Masks still universal in supermarkets and everyone I know is curbing social activity and taking LFTs before every meeting. Restaurants are busy, but with staff masked and spacing between seats. Various major events are still being postponed. The perception is that it's getting worse again as we all know people who've got it and mostly report it's quite nasty - not really that people think they'll die, but that they'll have an unpleasant two weeks, so just not worth it for the sake of shopping without a mask. As always it';s a cost-benefit thing - if people really want to do something they will and take any reasonable risk, but if they're not that bothered then they won't.

Really? I find this almost impossible to believe. Where is 'round here'? Masking is a rare enough sight on London buses now, never mind in restaurants. And as for postponing events, er, what? Nothing is being postponed here. Life is back to normal.

It could be just Nick's friends all deciding that they're rather not meet that mad Covid Shielder NPXMP, so they pretend they have "postponed" their parties and get-togethers, when in reality they just disinvited Nick. Also, whenever anyone in Godalming sees Nick, they probably whip out their masks and put them on, to reassure him. And everyone at Nick's office is back to working in the office, and they are happy that Nick stays at home, so they do fake Zooms

Only joking Nick!

Finally we discover what the fake Zoom backgrounds are for!!

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:

Russia accidentally admits they've lost almost 10,000 soldiers, plus another 16,000 injured.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10637425/Russia-loses-10-000-men-just-four-weeks-toll-Ukraine-invasion-revealed.html

I know the article quotes a " pro-Ukrainian employee" but the number is straight out of Ukrainian propaganda. Either copied from or a hack, in which case, it doesn't tell us very much,

The Ukrainian number is 17-18,000. But given that the Russians have - confirmed - lost around 25% of their armoured vehicles, 10,000 killed out of 200,000 troops doesn't sound like a crazy number and is slightly above the 7,000 number that the US estimated for Russian losses last week.

FF43 said:

LostPassword said:

biggles said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

If anything the last few weeks have shown that it really doesn't matter how contemptible your politicians are when the country they are leading still holds such political and military power. Sad but true.

Maybe

The PM would have been invited to the EU summit on Thursday if BoZo wasn't such a dick.

Maybe that matters. Maybe not.

I don’t get the concern over this one. We’re not in the EU so why would we want to bother with their summit? Nothing of military consequence in Europe can be discussed without us in the room, so this just makes the NATO meeting more important, which is surely what we want?

I could believe Cummings advising Johnson to make this comment precisely for the reason of not being invited to the EU Council. It would be impossible for Johnson to refuse the invitation, but he surely doesn't want the EU to be the forum for making these decisions.

That's why instead Britain has put effort into bilateral and multilateral relationships outside the EU, like the UK-Poland-Ukraine agreement.

I could see Johnson agreeing to a US/UK/EU format of talks, where the EU is one party out of three, but going along to the EU Council where the UK and US will be two voices among thirty - that's not the format Johnson would want.

Very short-sighted of the EU to allow themselves to be riled by Johnson in this way.

Problem with this analysis is that the EUCO is precisely the meeting where the decision will be made, ie the common position between the EU and the US. This then gets rolled out to the NATO and G7 meetings but no-one is likely to diverge much from that position.

It doesn't make the UK completely irrelevant. It's a significant player in the G7 and as you say it's working on the bilaterals. NATO appears to have excluded itself from involvement this conflict but no doubt there are discussions going on about a subset of countries providing security guarantees to Ukraine and the security implications of that for NATO.

I agree the EU should have invited the UK for reasons of protocol even though it doesn't make much difference in practice.

I'm not really convinced by this argument.

The EU has about 5 opinions not 1, held by different groups of countries, and that is what is needed to be managed. That won't happen in a US / European Council meeting.

If there is to be an intervention of a sort in Ukraine, it will be decided by NATO - as EuCo (Commission not Council) has no means to intervene, and nobody would trust their personnel to it in a risk situation. EuCo will have a roll, but not that one.

Though I can see EuCo trying to grab a role in NATO for itself in the next year or two, as that is a normal process for the Brussels bureaucracy.

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I see #sendherback is trending on twitter. Seems to be prevalent in a particular dank little corner of my own polity, nice teeth and cared for nails seem to be great triggers of rage for these people.

How unpleasant. Twitter really can be a cesspit.

I also notice #ungratefulcow is trending !!!!

She's entitled to her view, and I imagine she feels rather strongly about the whole thing. I hope the MP's investigation is of some use. We thrashed around on here about why it only happened now, and its surely because the money was paid. We disagree to what extent if any Johnson's foolish words played a role, but at heart she was a hostage, in the same way that Terry Waite was all those years ago (different country, and not perhaps an exact comparison).

Talking of Terry Waite.

In Oliver North's autobiography he talked about the American hostages. One of them came out, pretty much praising his captors, and damning America. North said that some people talked about Stockholm syndrome and the like, but he thought that was rubbish. The man had been quite anti-US government when he was taken hostage and had simply remained so.

The hostages in Beirut were being held by allies of the Iranian government incidentally, and their release was at the behest of the Iranian government.

And yes, Col. North's involvement was exactly about Iran-Contra..

Terry Waite was sent to negotiate the release of hostages and was taken hostage himself. I seem to recall one of the hostages saying how unbearable Waite was as a fellow captive. Which seems ungrateful but I suppose if you spend months chained to same radiator ...

tlg86 said:

So tempted to drive over to Godalming. I know it's metaphorically a million miles from Woking, but what Nick says is very different 10 miles away.

Indeed, in Guildford Tesco or Waitrose I doubt it's over 10%. But then Godalming has always felt a little like 5 miles and 30 years away...

Leon said:

Talking of Covid precautions, I just heard that my 50-something stepmother has got Covid

This is *ironic* as she is immuno-compromised and takes more precautions than anyone I know. Literally. She does not meet people indoors, she always wears a good mask (practically a diving helmet) she never goes to pubs/restaurants/theatres, and she has been doing this for two solid years

And yet she has still caught Omicron BA2 (presumably)

It is simply too infectious to be stopped

If I read this right, you are older than your stepmother?

How long until your girlfriend is younger than your daughter?

I am pleased my life is simpler.

Balrog said:

tlg86 said:

So tempted to drive over to Godalming. I know it's metaphorically a million miles from Woking, but what Nick says is very different 10 miles away.

Indeed, in Guildford Tesco or Waitrose I doubt it's over 10%. But then Godalming has always felt a little like 5 miles and 30 years away...

I think NickPalmerGate can only be resolved if Nick wanders around Godalming and takes photos of all these mask-wearers in Waitrose etc, and posts them on here

Otherwise, we can only presume he is being paid by his friends in Moscow, spreading misinfo, and trying to prolong our Fear of Covid, and he will have to be banned

MattW said:

Leon said:

Talking of Covid precautions, I just heard that my 50-something stepmother has got Covid

This is *ironic* as she is immuno-compromised and takes more precautions than anyone I know. Literally. She does not meet people indoors, she always wears a good mask (practically a diving helmet) she never goes to pubs/restaurants/theatres, and she has been doing this for two solid years

And yet she has still caught Omicron BA2 (presumably)

It is simply too infectious to be stopped

If I read this right, you are older than your stepmother?

How long until your girlfriend is younger than your daughter?

I am pleased my life is simpler.

It is fair to say my family is *quite unusual*

RobD said:

kjh said:

RobD said:

kjh said:

TOPPING said:

Much of PB collectively ponders the logistics of nipping down to @NickPalmer's local Waitrose to see for themselves.
.

I'm just down the road. I would check for you if I didn't have two broken legs. Not sure I have mentioned that before.

That's awful. What's the prognosis?

@RobD I'm not sure if you are joking or not as I have been boring the pants off people here for nearly 4 weeks with my trials and tribulations. Assuming not, then thank you for your concern (everyone has been so nice here). One leg was a minor break in the foot and is now weight bearing. The other was multiple fractures requiring an op and metalwork. All is very good under the circumstances and the NHS was excellent. Will be a long time before I am up and about though.

OK, and now you mention it I recall someone mentioning breaking their leg a couple of weeks back. To break one may be regarded as a misfortune...

In all seriousness, I hope you have a speedy recovery. To be almost immobilised is not fun.

Thank you. The boredom is awful. PB has been a life saver.

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Nigelb said:

Same old...
https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1506239276094165002
NEW: Damning report by HMIC into corruption in Met Police finds the force is "not fit for purpose".

- Cash, jewellery, drugs regularly 'go missing'. Access code for one store was scribbled on the door

- Over 100 new recruits have previous convictions for crimes including theft

Over 200 warrant cards missing, too.

Seems odd. A crime and policing commisioner in Wiltshire was disbarred after election because of a traffic offence, yet the Met employs people with convictions for theft?

Wrong kind of chap - not actually a policeman.

If he had been a policeman, he would have gone sick for stress and retried. Then become PCC in another part of the country the next week, since his retirement would have shut down the enquiry.

Do we know if PCCs continue to have a future?

I'm beginning seriously to think of them as a large part of current problems with the police.

FF43 said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I see #sendherback is trending on twitter. Seems to be prevalent in a particular dank little corner of my own polity, nice teeth and cared for nails seem to be great triggers of rage for these people.

How unpleasant. Twitter really can be a cesspit.

I also notice #ungratefulcow is trending !!!!

She's entitled to her view, and I imagine she feels rather strongly about the whole thing. I hope the MP's investigation is of some use. We thrashed around on here about why it only happened now, and its surely because the money was paid. We disagree to what extent if any Johnson's foolish words played a role, but at heart she was a hostage, in the same way that Terry Waite was all those years ago (different country, and not perhaps an exact comparison).

Talking of Terry Waite.

In Oliver North's autobiography he talked about the American hostages. One of them came out, pretty much praising his captors, and damning America. North said that some people talked about Stockholm syndrome and the like, but he thought that was rubbish. The man had been quite anti-US government when he was taken hostage and had simply remained so.

The hostages in Beirut were being held by allies of the Iranian government incidentally, and their release was at the behest of the Iranian government.

And yes, Col. North's involvement was exactly about Iran-Contra..

Terry Waite was sent to negotiate the release of hostages and was taken hostage himself. I seem to recall one of the hostages saying how unbearable Waite was as a fellow captive. Which seems ungrateful but I suppose if you spend months chained to same radiator ...

For some reason... "The Disappearance of Crispina Umberleigh"

WhisperingOracle said:

Guterres : " From my outreach with various actors, elements of diplomatic progress are coming into view on several key issues.

There is enough on the table to seize hostilities and seriously negotiate now. "

I am wondering at what point people will start popping up demanding that Ukraine is *sensible* and "meets Putin half-way". And that further support is made contingent on such "sensible" behaviour.