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Who’ll come out of May 5th best – Johnson or Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569
    kyf_100 said:

    Perhaps there's some dogs that need rescuing.
    Genuine :lol:
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    I thought this a few weeks ago. Actually it wouldn't surprise me. He's reckless, he's expendable, it would have real symbolism. As much as I dislike him, if he can do something useful I'm all for it.
    I like the idea, of him standing in front of the Ukrainian parliament and saying something like 'I have been fed up with having all these zoom meetings over the last 2 years, and promised myself I would do more in person visits as soon as it was safe, so here I am.......'

    its something Boris could pull off, would resonate around the would, and as you say no Biggy if it all went wrong.
  • kyf_100 said:

    Perhaps there's some dogs that need rescuing.
    Just what I was thinking
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    pm215 said:

    Yes, it's a really interesting period of history. If you can find a second hand copy, I liked Pat Barr's _The Coming of the Barbarians_ which gives the westerner's-eye-view of it by drawing on accounts left by the variety of merchants, diplomats, and chancers who descended on Japan during the 1850s and 1860s in the period just after Perry forced the opening of the ports. (By its nature, this is hardly a neutral point of view of events, of course.)

    Seidensticker's _Low City, High City_ covers Tokyo 1867-1923, and is another book I recommend.

    Finally, if you happen to also be a train nerd, _Early Japanese Railways 1853-1914_ by Dan Free is superb on the topic of the Japanese railway system's development from small steps totally reliant on foreign assistance to independent operation, and is copiously illustrated with photos and other period items from the author's personal collection.
    Thank you, I will follow up.

    I quite like biased old history books. One of my favourites is a “History of Britain” owned by my great grandfather. You read it mostly to learn about those who wrote it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,148
    Does BoZo think one of his Russian friends has a villa in Kyiv?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569

    Cechans are there. There is plenty of video of them including in Mariupol. Syria, I think it was more there were posting on social media channels asking for people.
    Are Cechans "foreign" fighters?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    The Ukrainian border agency said today that 400,000 Ukrainians had returned to the country since the start of the war, about 75-80% men, presumably mostly to help defend the country from the Russians.

    The gap in willingness to fight is very large.
    I do hope that we and other nations have at least given them enough rifles, and uniforms for them all.

    and my very best wishes to each and every one of them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Boris desperate to get on the telly, he won’t like Zelensky getting all the coverage.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Can you imagine the discussions with the likes of the SAS...Boris wants to go to Kyiv, we need a security team to go with and special forces backup in case anything goes South...i think there would be lots of industrial language to put it mildly.

    Probably keen to go as an excuse to get stuck in when they become “absolutely certain” they were fired upon.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    I'm wondering the same about helicopters. There's only so much chaff they can chuck out - and an awful lot of manpads in theatre. If you can't get your choppers up, you cant shift infantry round at speed. And they do seem to have been picked off by artillery/special forces whilst on the deck, wondering what to do. Ukrainian claimed kills of helicopters are towards 100, I think. Which is a remarkable loss.
    Oryx has the helicopters at 34. But I think a feature of StarStreak is that even chaff won't help helicopters, as the missile does not fix on the heat signature but is laser guided and it travels at Mach 3.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    edited March 2022

    The Ukrainian border agency said today that 400,000 Ukrainians had returned to the country since the start of the war, about 75-80% men, presumably mostly to help defend the country from the Russians.

    The gap in willingness to fight is very large.
    I'd be surprised if there are many in the Russian military who actually want to be fighting this war, but amongst the Ukrainian population they may not want to fight, but they sure as hell will do so to protect their people and country. This is not some far away war about an issue that ought to be resolvable diplomatically, this very existence of Ukraine rests on the outcome. Other than your own immediate safety there really isn't much greater motivation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,278

    Biden needs to stop him. Utterly reckless madness. Or perhaps Carrie can have a word?
    Carrie might be quite happy with him going. Just need the life insurance upgrading first...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569
    Another towering achievement from Vlad, the master geopolitical strategist:

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    1h
    Germany is ready to form the backbone of a new EU Rapid Reaction Force that is to consist of 5000 soldiers by 2025.

    German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht delivered the message today in Brussels during a meeting with her counterparts from other EU states.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1506007795669233666
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Cechans are there. There is plenty of video of them including in Mariupol. Syria, I think it was more there were posting on social media channels asking for people.
    Chechens presumably do not classify as foreign, though. All part of the Greater Russian Imperial Soviet Empire.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Are Cechans "foreign" fighters?
    Well for Putin, everyone there is Russian….
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited March 2022

    Are Chechans "foreign" fighters?
    Depends if you ask a Chechen....
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,240
    biggles said:


    Thank you, I will follow up.

    On the Russo-Japanese war, In Our Time did an episode on that last year -- their reading list may be worth mining for suitable books. And don't miss the pdf of Japanese woodblock prints of events of the war which they link to -- the combination of the traditional style and modern subject matter is arresting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Are Cechans "foreign" fighters?
    Janissaries, perhaps. Surprised Putin doesn't have a child levy in the outlying republics.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    biggles said:

    Well for Putin, everyone there is Russian….
    Including the opposition.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,845

    Nothing says Brexit is done like Tories picking over their curdled reasons for their voting then and why the EU is a big smelly pooh pants now.

    I am a Brexit supporter but I chuckled. :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569
    BigRich said:

    I like the idea, of him standing in front of the Ukrainian parliament and saying something like 'I have been fed up with having all these zoom meetings over the last 2 years, and promised myself I would do more in person visits as soon as it was safe, so here I am.......'

    its something Boris could pull off, would resonate around the would, and as you say no Biggy if it all went wrong.
    It is a biggy if it all goes wrong. His replacement PM would have no choice but to declare war on Russia if Johnson gets himself recklessly shot or kidnapped whilst in Kyiv. Madness.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    pm215 said:

    On the Russo-Japanese war, In Our Time did an episode on that last year -- their reading list may be worth mining for suitable books. And don't miss the pdf of Japanese woodblock prints of events of the war which they link to -- the combination of the traditional style and modern subject matter is arresting.
    Those images are remarkable. And that’s just a first impression.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    As someone who has spent countless hours campaigning for them - there is absolutely no reason to vote Conservative if you are under 50 except as a form of social charity for pensioners. The Conservatives spend most of their time completely fucking over my generation. Thinking about it, I really should have voted for Corbyn, because at least the subsequent economic collapse would have devalued the housing market.
    Rishi Sunak is well under 50. (So is Priti for another 8 days).
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    TimT said:

    Oryx has the helicopters at 34. But I think a feature of StarStreak is that even chaff won't help helicopters, as the missile does not fix on the heat signature but is laser guided and it travels at Mach 3.

    It doesn't even work on a reflection of laser light, like a laser guided bomb, so you can't use any laser to defeat a seeker. The missiles basically fly down a beam that projects a pattern which the missiles use to adjust steering. So neither flares (IR), chaff (radar), DIRCM (modulated IR light to throw off a seeker), or EW (jamming radar) are any use. Your best bet is to stay out of range.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,350
    pm215 said:

    On the Russo-Japanese war, In Our Time did an episode on that last year -- their reading list may be worth mining for suitable books. And don't miss the pdf of Japanese woodblock prints of events of the war which they link to -- the combination of the traditional style and modern subject matter is arresting.
    Yes, it was prints of the war that first sprang to mind, beautiful things.



  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,845

    Russia is abandoning talks about ending WW2.

    @Telegraph
    🇷🇺Russia has said it is abandoning peace talks with Japan, which were aimed at signing a formal World War II peace treaty, due to Tokyo's tough response on Ukraine


    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1505947632820269059

    Russia's foreign policy of being nice to all the far Eastern countries has been trashed now. It's China or China, with a side helping of China.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    This thread has been shut down like Boris idea of going to Ukraine.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    edited March 2022

    And, Putin can't hide those sort of numbers: if you're dead, you're dead.

    It can't be covered up and those affected will notice.
    But will they speak up? Or just grieve in private?
    MattW said:

    A combination of the ships being flagged out, and where the operating company is based. So no UK regs may apply to the staffing contracts.

    At a punt on the Dutch / French employees still being in their jobs, there may be less impact from the trends, or there may be legislation in place requiring x% jobs for the host nation (we are traditionally weaker on that).

    Plus they may think our regulators may be more lax in practice.

    eg When the fishing arguments were happening, the authorities in Jersey were so supine when the French closed their ports to Jersey boats so preventing Jersey fishermen fishing in Jersey grounds, that they said it was not legal for them to close the Jersey fishing grounds to French boats.
    Thanks.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Russia's foreign policy of being nice to all the far Eastern countries has been trashed now. It's China or China, with a side helping of China.
    Well if the Second World War is still on, Japan should get stuck in on those islands!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,278

    The Ukrainian border agency said today that 400,000 Ukrainians had returned to the country since the start of the war, about 75-80% men, presumably mostly to help defend the country from the Russians.

    The gap in willingness to fight is very large.
    This on Odesa civilians having a one day course in rifle shooting is quite telling. This instructor was particularly honest:

    "Tkachev was candid when asked whether a single day of firearms training will provide protection against professional Russian soldiers.

    "I think that many of these guys understand that if this fight happens, this will be their last fight," he said.

    https://t.co/xXsf3wumTX"

    Nonetheless they are training, and many are Russian speaking. It is going to be very tough on the people of Ukraine, but with that level of patriotism, very hard to beat them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited March 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Rishi Sunak is well under 50. (So is Priti for another 8 days).
    So is Raab, Barclary (just), Kwarteng, Braverman, Trevelyan and Dowden, with several others round about 50. It's not a very old Cabinet, especially for a party in power for 12 years.

    Not really an indication of their policy offer one way or another.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Knew fred
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    glw said:

    I'd be surprised if there are many in the Russian military who actually want to be fighting this war, but amongst the Ukrainian population they may not want to fight, but they sure as hell will do so to protect their people and country. This is not some far away war about an issue that ought to be resolvable diplomatically, this very existence of Ukraine rests on the outcome. Other than your own immediate safety there really isn't much greater motivation.
    For most people, it would be a case of wanting to do what you can. You would try and help. If you regard the place as home, and are not implacably opposed to the government, you would go back to defend it - you wouldn't want to be a refugee somewhere else. This is how I would feel about Britain, if it were under attack in some way. I can't imagine being able to live with myself knowing that other people are doing the fighting on my behalf.

    Interesting the gender dimension to all of this. Suddenly it is just accepted that 'men go to fight in the war'. I've never seen this idea questioned in the discussion about Ukraine. I've been suggesting to my wife that I think that gender norms are so deeply entrenched in human psychology that they can never be truly deconstructed.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,845

    Biden needs to stop him. Utterly reckless madness. Or perhaps Carrie can have a word?
    He's not exactly a small target.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    We have done this to death down thread. The ships are registered in Crypus, new employees hired via agency in Malta. Employment terms and condition only have to match those of country ship is registered in. No national minimum wage in Crypus.

    Old employees weren't even UK, they were contracted via Jersey.
    I read the thread just now. @IshmaelZ and I have our differences but he is absolutely right on this. The government can do pretty much what it likes and could find a way to block P&O - and only P&O - from using our ports. It would take - what? - about a day of crafty thinking. The idea that it is somehow unable to do anything is for the birds.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    IshmaelZ said:

    That's the Barnet Formula for you. Leaching Scots.
    Surely a misspelling of leeching there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    edited March 2022

    Another towering achievement from Vlad, the master geopolitical strategist:

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    1h
    Germany is ready to form the backbone of a new EU Rapid Reaction Force that is to consist of 5000 soldiers by 2025.

    German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht delivered the message today in Brussels during a meeting with her counterparts from other EU states.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1506007795669233666

    So, not that rapid then?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,470
    edited March 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Boris desperate to get on the telly, he won’t like Zelensky getting all the coverage.

    All Ukraine need at a time like this is that lump arriving for a photo op. The only country to have seriously enhanced its reputation-apart from Ukraine obviously- is Poland. They're the real heroes
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    edited March 2022

    I read the thread just now. @IshmaelZ and I have our differences but he is absolutely right on this. The government can do pretty much what it likes and could find a way to block P&O - and only P&O - from using our ports. It would take - what? - about a day of crafty thinking. The idea that it is somehow unable to do anything is for the birds.
    Well, go on. Come back on Wednesday with a fully crafted idea that has been passed by the lawyers.

    Go on. I'll be waiting!
This discussion has been closed.