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Special military operation, what is it good for? – politicalbetting.com

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  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,859
    edited March 2022
    kle4 said:

    Those must have been some great sonnets given I think they were supposed to have carried on in a relationship for quite some time.
    Well, we don't know how many verses the sonnets had.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited March 2022
    Boris inherited the arms-to-Ukraine policy.

    His main function during the war has been as an enthusiastic advocate for other countries to do the same.

    Fair dos.

    He’s still mendacious “bin bag full of custard”.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608

    @TheScreamingEagles

    She’s not a very good writer is she?

    She could always engage SK Tremayne to write the docu-novel.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    How about Czechnoslovakia?
    Inventive, but too long :)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305
    Sunday evening's poll watch takes us to Slovenia where the next GE is on April 24th.

    The Parsifal polling organisation is, as we know, owned by a member of the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), the leading party in the current centre-right coalition.

    The current numbers for those parties above the threshold of 4% and changes since the last election:

    Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS): 31% (+6.1)
    Freedom Movement (GS): 25.8% (new)
    Social Democrats (SD): 10.2% (+0.3)
    Let's Connect Slovenia (PoS): 7.2% (-6.6)
    New Slovenia (NSi): 4.2% (-3)
    List Marjan Šarec (LMS): 4.2% (-8.4)

    The arrival of Robert Golob's party has transformed Slovenian politics and they present a serious and credible opposition to Janez Jansa's SDS-led Government. The Goverment coalition has down from 46% to 42.4% yet all three parties looks set to be returned to the National Assembly.

    Freedom Movement, the Social Democrats and perhaps LMS could be the nucleus of the opposing block but they trail slightly with 40.2%. There are a number of other parties but with Levica (the Left), which won 9 seats last time, now in danger of dropping out of the national assembly (3.8% in the current poll), it's not easy to call this.

    Given Parsifal's traditional "bias" to the SDS, this isn't a bad poll for the opposition who are ahead with centre-left pollsters such as Ninamedia and Mediana but it's all on a knife edge at this point.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    edited March 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but Boris also won a bigger majority in 2019 than Cameron in 2015.

    As Adlai Stevenson replied when complimented in the 1956 presidential election 'you have the votes of all intelligent people'. 'Sadly Madam, that is not enough to win!''

    The average voter is not an intellectual, they have GCSEs but not a degree
    The average Tory voter actually has 'O' levels or CSEs, not GCSEs.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,354

    She could always engage SK Tremayne to write the docu-novel.
    Nah, he’s too busy covering up a murder in Cornwall in 1993, after inadvertently blurting out a confidence on an obscure politics blog.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Leon said:

    Tell you what, if I was Vlad V Putin, and I'd spent several billion pounds ensuring that the Tory Party and thus the UK was safely in my pocket, I'd be quite pissed off to discover that "in my pocket" actually meant the Tory Party and the UK arming my sworn enemy, over years, with several thousand anti-tank missiles which have now wiped out 25% of my mechanised military

    God knows what Britain might have done if Putin HADN'T bought us off with his billions in London. Given nukes to Kyiv?

    Maybe he made the same error as the Lib Dems? He underestimated the sheer ruthlessness of the Conservative party. You can do all the favours/give them all the money you like but if you're no longer of use to them you'll be thrown to the wolves ASAP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Ain't talking officialese, but rather what people in US & UK actually call country infested with Czechs . . . or "Czechians" if you prefer . . .
    The Czech Republic.

    In looking up some Czech facts I discover there is apparently something called the Global Peace Index rankings, where they rank ninth in the world.

    Russia, by way of contrast, comes 154th, ahead of only notable bastions of peace and stability: CAR, Libya, DPR Congo, Somalia, Iraq, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan. Shocking.

    I also see on the Democracy Index the USA has been listed as a flawed democracy since 2016, but before anyone gets too smug so are Belgium, France, Spain, Italy and many others.

    Ukraine, by tthat group's measure, has not made notable progress, but hopefully this war might affect that positively as they seek to break out of the Russian shackles.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Shakespeare wrote 154 sonnets.
    I think Donne did a few as well.

    More than enough to cover Johnson’s asthmatic amours.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202

    Boris inherited the arms-to-Ukraine policy.

    Not really. He inherited the policy of training the Ukrainian army but the weapons airlift in the face of Russia's mobilisation was entirely on his watch.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    Once again the test match is not even close to a result. Bah.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Maybe he made the same error as the Lib Dems? He underestimated the sheer ruthlessness of the Conservative party. You can do all the favours/give them all the money you like but if you're no longer of use to them you'll be thrown to the wolves ASAP.
    He took on the most mendacious, serpentine and long lived political party in the western world, the UK Conservatives, and that most perfidious and hypocritical of beasts, the British Establishment in London. He actually thought he could "buy" them

    Unsurprisingly, his billions bought him some fine words, and absolutely fuck all else. Not even Chelsea FC, in the end
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608

    Boris inherited the arms-to-Ukraine policy.

    His main function during the war has been as an enthusiastic advocate for other countries to do the same.

    Fair dos.

    He’s still mendacious “bin bag full of custard”.

    That is uncannily close to Dura Ace's "fat lying sack of jizz". Has anyone ever seen Dura Ace and Jennifer Arcuri in the same room?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Some interesting undercurrents at the Conservative Spring Conference this past weekend.

    A lot has been said about the Prime Minister's comments - having looked at them, if I didn't know better, I'd say he was ad-libbing to notes or bullet points rather than to a crafted well-drafted speech. It looks and sounds amateurish rather than what you would expect from a PM with an army of advisers and speech writers at his command.

    Some might suggest the verbal clumsiness is part of the act - maybe and perhaps there's an element of cheap provocateur journalism but the act now looks tired and after everything that has happened, you can see why some might be calling for Boris Johnson to get off the stage.

    On the economic front, Sunak is playing an old game in new colours - get the pain out of the way just in time for a pre-election tax cut (perhaps also as a ploy for a future leadership election). The problem with being a "responsible" CoE in difficult times is no one thanks you for it and the cost of rising costs ends up inevitably with the voters through having to pay more for everything (the militant will then chase that inflation via wage increases).

    The only thing in his favour is if Rees-Mogg disagrees you're probably dong something right.

    The antics of P&O Ferries are probably the last thing Sunak wanted or needed as it brought back some bad old memories of how employers were when things got tough and trying to b the workers' friend is never an act the Conservatives can play with conviction.

    I'm still not certain what kind of Conservative Party we have or rather what kind of Party Sunak would like to lead - one that wins elections is the obvious answer but I detect a more fundamental crisis of the Tory soul (yes, they do have them). As others have said, events (as MacMillan once mentioned) have gotten in the way and are now posing awkward questions for all parties - the re-defining of the political landscape post-Covid and in the context of shifting alliances elsewhere challenge us all.

    Thanks. At this moment apart from retail trivialities and rhetoric I can't see any genuine fundamental differences between Tory and Labour. If others can I would find it helpful to have them explained.

    Really big differences show up in two ways: Genuine policy divergence; and where the state managed money is raised and spent, and how much as a % of GDP. Tinkering with a billion here and billion there doesn't count.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Maybe he made the same error as the Lib Dems? He underestimated the sheer ruthlessness of the Conservative party. You can do all the favours/give them all the money you like but if you're no longer of use to them you'll be thrown to the wolves ASAP.
    Some years ago, at Sandhurst, there was a scandal. Rich foreigners at the military academy were trying to buy grades. One even bought an instructor a car.

    It was noticed that in each case, their marks and grades had got *worse* after bribing people. The guy who gave the car as a gift was binned from the place by the guy he gave the car to......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    TRIGGER WARNING.

    PLEASE SKIP OVER THIS POST IF YOU ARE OF A SENSITIVE DISPOSITION.

    THIS IS THE WORST THING I HAVE EVER SEEN AND CARING IS SHARING



    You should hear what he says about you, luv....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Johnson has put on a lot of weight again recently. I wonder if it correlated with his polling.

    You have to word quite hard to pack on that kind of weight, I’d have thought. Too much late night Deliveroo, I reckon.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364
    Leon said:

    He took on the most mendacious, serpentine and long lived political party in the western world, the UK Conservatives, and that most perfidious and hypocritical of beasts, the British Establishment in London. He actually thought he could "buy" them

    Unsurprisingly, his billions bought him some fine words, and absolutely fuck all else. Not even Chelsea FC, in the end
    AND rubber chicken. Never forget the rubber chicken.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364
    Leon said:

    He took on the most mendacious, serpentine and long lived political party in the western world, the UK Conservatives, and that most perfidious and hypocritical of beasts, the British Establishment in London. He actually thought he could "buy" them

    Unsurprisingly, his billions bought him some fine words, and absolutely fuck all else. Not even Chelsea FC, in the end
    AND rubber chicken. Never forget the rubber chicken.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Wordle 274 2/6

    🟩⬜⬜⬜⬜
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    That is just dumb luck!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,196

    For what it's worth, have never heard an American refer to "the Czech" meaning Czech Republic.

    And had never heard of a Brit using "the Czech" that way until today. It is common in UK?

    Basic problem stems from fact at CR is divided between Bohemia and Moravia, and there is no (native) English word for the two combined?
    Like you I have never heard anyone refer to the country as 'The Czech' I have heard it called 'The Czech Republic' and indeed I thought that until the recent name change that was its official name.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    Foxy said:

    I understood that you aren't supposed to be tested within 90 days, as persistent antigen leads to false positives.

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing/test-results/positive-test-result/

    We were reading all that stuff today about false positive PCR tests within 90 days. However, this was a positive LFT and she does have mild symptoms. My sister-in-law-in-law* was whacked for a couple of days.

    * Is there an easier way to refer to your wife's brother's wife?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    Johnson has put on a lot of weight again recently. I wonder if it correlated with his polling.

    You have to word quite hard to pack on that kind of weight, I’d have thought. Too much late night Deliveroo, I reckon.

    Too much custard, surely!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Tell you what, if I was Vlad V Putin, and I'd spent several billion pounds ensuring that the Tory Party and thus the UK was safely in my pocket, I'd be quite pissed off to discover that "in my pocket" actually meant the Tory Party and the UK arming my sworn enemy, over years, with several thousand anti-tank missiles which have now wiped out 25% of my mechanised military

    God knows what Britain might have done if Putin HADN'T bought us off with his billions in London. Given nukes to Kyiv?

    Perhaps Putin thought that his crack military (crack in sense of elite NOT lead by crack-heads) would roll over UKR in matter of days, and he'd get the UK arms as spoils of war?

    Does seem Putin though the war would be a pushover, or that he'd intimidate Ukrainians & etc. into backing down without a fight?

    Could all that Ruski money sloshing around London, have helped embolden Putin to unleash his dogs of war?

    One problem with bribing people, is that the type who will take the dough, are also the kind to rat & renege on you when the going gets rough & tough.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    That is uncannily close to Dura Ace's "fat lying sack of jizz". Has anyone ever seen Dura Ace and Jennifer Arcuri in the same room?
    Durex Ace?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216
    DavidL said:

    Once again the test match is not even close to a result. Bah.

    Test match or Yawn-fest match?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,354

    We were reading all that stuff today about false positive PCR tests within 90 days. However, this was a positive LFT and she does have mild symptoms. My sister-in-law-in-law* was whacked for a couple of days.

    * Is there an easier way to refer to your wife's brother's wife?
    I stick to brother in law for my wife’s sisters husband.
    Omicron, both versions, does seem to have an ability to reinfect previously recovered people.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2022
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1505654066575204358

    "A chilling new threat. Russia's Defense Ministry says Ukraine has until 5am on March 21 to surrender the besieged city of Mariupol, adding it'll let residents and troops who lay down arms leave. Anyone left behind "with the bandits" will "face a military tribunal.""

    Worth noting that Russia has been consistently attacking civilian evacuations, and has on multiple occasions over the past 8 years offered Ukrainian soldiers safe passage out providing they gave up their arms, then proceeded to slaughter them.

    If you want a lowdown on what Russian military tribunals are like, the following article is good: https://www.rferl.org/a/the-executioners-of-slovyansk/30743132.html

    "The Russia-backed gunmen came and hauled away Oleksiy Pichko on the afternoon of June 17, 2014, three days after he allegedly broke into a neighbor’s home in a rundown district on the outskirts of Slovyansk, in eastern Ukraine, and stole two shirts and a pair of pants.

    The 30-year-old Pichko, a civilian, was taken to a gloomy two-story building surrounded by armed guards and barricades. He was interrogated, forced to write a confession, and summarily shot to death by a firing squad of Russia-backed separatists who had seized control of the city. His executioners discarded his body on a battlefield of the war raging between them and Ukrainian forces, where it could be blown to bits by exploding artillery shells, according to family members and friends who sought out his whereabouts when he was taken and looked for his body after learning of his death."

    And it only gets grimmer from there...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,454

    I stick to brother in law for my wife’s sisters husband.
    Omicron, both versions, does seem to have an ability to reinfect previously recovered people.
    It does indeed. I have a friend whose kids have just tested positive for the second time this year.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Like you I have never heard anyone refer to the country as 'The Czech' I have heard it called 'The Czech Republic' and indeed I thought that until the recent name change that was its official name.
    I’m decidedly old-fashioned in these things
    None of this Russia nonsense, it’ll always be Muscovy to me.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Not really. He inherited the policy of training the Ukrainian army but the weapons airlift in the face of Russia's mobilisation was entirely on his watch.
    For which Boris deserves credit. (Someone please make sure Big_G hasn't fallen off his perch!)

    My point is that there are still PLENTY of questions re: his motivation let alone his sincerity.

    And integrity? As they say in Boston, Mass - forgetaboutit!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305

    Your last sentence mirror's several of my posts since this war broke out

    It was interesting listening to Sophie Raworth this morning interviewing Rachel Reeves

    Sophie - this week the Prime Minister went to Saudi Arabia in an attempt to reduce fuel prices, would Keir Starmer have gone
    Rachel - The Prime Minister rejects Putin but goes to another dictator so no
    Sophie - Is it not right to attempt to get oil prices down
    Rachel - Yes but not by going begging to Saudi Arabia
    Sophie - Would Labour still accept oil from Saudi Arabia
    Rachel - Yes
    Sophie - So what is wrong with trying to get Saudi to reduce oil prices
    Rachel - Silence
    There are plenty of devils out there so you need a pretty good stock of long spoons to survive in the modern world.

    One of the disadvantages of being a democracy is many of the countries with which we want to do business aren't. Now, you may choose to make a party political point out of this (or you may not) and people scoffed at the notion of an "ethical" foreign policy 25 years ago.

    The problem is we can't control where the oil is - if we don't get it from Russia, the big players remain Saudi Arabia and the UAE and you can ask some pretty searching questions about both countries and the behaviour of their rulers (and in a democracy, we can and should) but your options are simple - either sit in the dark or grab your long spoon.

    There's a bigger point about our dependence on oil which, ever since the Yom Kippur War when oil prices quadrupled without OPEC losing a single customer, has lurked in the battleground but about which we've done precious little. Yes, our cars are much cleaner and more fuel efficient but how many are there now compared with 1974? The fact remains our economy and indeed our very way of life is hyper sensitive to the availability and price of resources (not just oil) which are often in the hands of countries where, to put it mildly, the rulers don't seem to have the personal and official checks and balances our system (despite the antics of the current Government) still possesses.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    Too much custard, surely!
    Hopefully not with spotted dick.....
  • Johnson has put on a lot of weight again recently. I wonder if it correlated with his polling.

    You have to word quite hard to pack on that kind of weight, I’d have thought. Too much late night Deliveroo, I reckon.

    I fight my weight and lose weight by a strict soup and fruit diet over several weeks

    However, when under stress, or as is likely with Boris burning the midnight oil, it is most likely his increased weight is by over snacking between meals
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,708

    That has made my day. I've always said Johnson was a useless f*****!
    What attracted you at first madam to a useless bin bag full of stale custard who just happened to...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Does seem Putin though the war would be a pushover, or that he'd intimidate Ukrainians & etc. into backing down without a fight?

    Putin may be the kind of person who just looks at the comparitive numbers of military assets and assumes that one side must therefore inevitably win if their numbers are larger, notwithstanding many examples of history of smaller forces prevailing, or at least damaging the superior force.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608

    Hopefully not with spotted dick.....
    A small portion would be just fine by the sounds of it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    There is a problem. A real one.

    - The Good Europeans (especially the Germans) backed the cause of Nothing To See Here. Arms shipments were inflammatory and dangerous. Ukraine needed Ito be reasonable and comply with Minsk 2.
    - The UK and US went for arming the Ukrainians over a period of years - in depth it now turns out. Not just a few crates of weapons. They really did something here.
    - The Eastern European countries that aren't a Putin franchise (see Hungary) backed the UK and US approach.

    The problem is that this is Bad Facts. At least to some people. So they need something better than.... reality.
    The French and the Swedes were both very happy to sell the Ukrainians arms. It was mostly the Italians and the Germans (both of whom are big purchasers of Russian gas) who toed the Kremlin line.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    kle4 said:

    Putin may be the kind of person who just looks at the comparitive numbers of military assets and assumes that one side must therefore inevitably win if their numbers are larger, notwithstanding many examples of history of smaller forces prevailing, or at least damaging the superior force.
    Has anyone seen Putin and HYUFD in the same room?
  • Perhaps Putin thought that his crack military (crack in sense of elite NOT lead by crack-heads) would roll over UKR in matter of days, and he'd get the UK arms as spoils of war?

    Does seem Putin though the war would be a pushover, or that he'd intimidate Ukrainians & etc. into backing down without a fight?

    Could all that Ruski money sloshing around London, have helped embolden Putin to unleash his dogs of war?

    One problem with bribing people, is that the type who will take the dough, are also the kind to rat & renege on you when the going gets rough & tough.

    It is quite remarkable how blindsided so many are when the real reason for Putin's war chest is the disaster that was Angela Merkel when she sold Germany and the EU's soul to Putin by becoming so dependent on his gas

    Germany to this day is sustaining Putin's war
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    stodge said:

    There are plenty of devils out there so you need a pretty good stock of long spoons to survive in the modern world.

    One of the disadvantages of being a democracy is many of the countries with which we want to do business aren't. Now, you may choose to make a party political point out of this (or you may not) and people scoffed at the notion of an "ethical" foreign policy 25 years ago.

    The problem is we can't control where the oil is - if we don't get it from Russia, the big players remain Saudi Arabia and the UAE and you can ask some pretty searching questions about both countries and the behaviour of their rulers (and in a democracy, we can and should) but your options are simple - either sit in the dark or grab your long spoon.

    There's a bigger point about our dependence on oil which, ever since the Yom Kippur War when oil prices quadrupled without OPEC losing a single customer, has lurked in the battleground but about which we've done precious little. Yes, our cars are much cleaner and more fuel efficient but how many are there now compared with 1974? The fact remains our economy and indeed our very way of life is hyper sensitive to the availability and price of resources (not just oil) which are often in the hands of countries where, to put it mildly, the rulers don't seem to have the personal and official checks and balances our system (despite the antics of the current Government) still possesses.
    It seems that the vehicle fuel usage in the UK has been falling since a peak in 2007

    image
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    Can we just agree to use Czechistan and be done with it?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305
    algarkirk said:

    Thanks. At this moment apart from retail trivialities and rhetoric I can't see any genuine fundamental differences between Tory and Labour. If others can I would find it helpful to have them explained.

    Really big differences show up in two ways: Genuine policy divergence; and where the state managed money is raised and spent, and how much as a % of GDP. Tinkering with a billion here and billion there doesn't count.
    The tactic of the new Chief of Staff at No.10 and presumably the thrust of Dowden's speech is to try to create those "fundamental differences" because the Conservatives probably believe they will always lose in a battle between two high spending high taxation social democratic parties.

    We see @Big_G_NorthWales also trying to play up the notion Labour is weak on energy independence and to be fair Reeves wasn't brilliant today. I've commented on this on my previous but in a way we have been hostages to countries with less than immaculate Governmental systems and human rights records for decades - we propped them up in the Cold War because they were "our kind of bastards" (so to speak).

    I suspect few will care where their litre of unleaded or diesel comes from as long as it doesn't cost too much and Saudi Aramco's decision to boost production will probably have the desired effect on oil prices tomorrow.

    The current conflict has illuminated those instances where the long spoon is necessary - whether it's football clubs taking money from Russian oligarchs or Saudi royalty or horse racing being dependent on the UAE royal family - but it's the reality of the world in which we live and arguably always has been.

    Put simply, money buys power but so too does resource control whether it's oil for our cars or rare metals for our mobile phones and computers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,708
    kle4 said:

    Putin may be the kind of person who just looks at the comparitive numbers of military assets and assumes that one side must therefore inevitably win if their numbers are larger, notwithstanding many examples of history of smaller forces prevailing, or at least damaging the superior force.
    As has been written on analysts sites, Putin was always a spy and never a military man. At the end of the day he is out of his depth but he doesn't know it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202

    Perhaps Putin thought that his crack military (crack in sense of elite NOT lead by crack-heads) would roll over UKR in matter of days, and he'd get the UK arms as spoils of war?

    Does seem Putin though the war would be a pushover, or that he'd intimidate Ukrainians & etc. into backing down without a fight?

    Could all that Ruski money sloshing around London, have helped embolden Putin to unleash his dogs of war?

    One problem with bribing people, is that the type who will take the dough, are also the kind to rat & renege on you when the going gets rough & tough.
    Are you for real? Russian money in London was the bane of Putin's existence. He wanted to keep it in the country to spend on modernising his military.

    There's a long list of European politicians who are known to have been paid by the Russians as a reward for serving their interests on oil and gas contracts. Those are the people you should be apoplectic about.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    It is quite remarkable how blindsided so many are when the real reason for Putin's war chest is the disaster that was Angela Merkel when she sold Germany and the EU's soul to Putin by becoming so dependent on his gas

    Germany to this day is sustaining Putin's war
    Gerhard Schröder (and the other German politicians who were similarly purchased) - an investment that worked very well for Putin.

    He was a few months away from getting Nord Stream 2 online. Which would have meant that Putin could have shut off gas to Eastern Europe (selectively) without affecting the big money earner in Western Europe.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    edited March 2022
    kle4 said:

    Putin may be the kind of person who just looks at the comparitive numbers of military assets and assumes that one side must therefore inevitably win if their numbers are larger, notwithstanding many examples of history of smaller forces prevailing, or at least damaging the superior force.
    Putin is also the kind of person who looks at a country led by a man who once pretended to play a piano with his penis & assumes that they are not a serious opponent. “How could such a person ever inspire resistence against the overwhelming power of the Russian military? They are nothing but an embarassment: the antithesis of Russian manly prowess” he must have thought.

    And yet here we are: it turns out that there are more things on heaven & earth than are thought of in Putin’s philosophy, one of which is that comedians & actors can also be effective, personally brave leaders in wartime who inspire people by their example.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562
    I go out for the day to visit James Rebanks' farm - and what a charming and knowledgeable host he was - then come back here to learn that William Golding was murdered and Johnson has sex with custard or possibly has custard during sex, or something.

    I am away for 3 days next week on a birthday break. God knows what I'll come back to after that.

    One of his Belted Galloways giving me the side eye below.


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    edited March 2022

    It is quite remarkable how blindsided so many are when the real reason for Putin's war chest is the disaster that was Angela Merkel when she sold Germany and the EU's soul to Putin by becoming so dependent on his gas

    Germany to this day is sustaining Putin's war
    It is quite remarkable to see how quickly you forget your own piteous and pious cries for unity.

    Is Germany an appeaser, collaborator or both?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    stodge said:

    There are plenty of devils out there so you need a pretty good stock of long spoons to survive in the modern world.

    One of the disadvantages of being a democracy is many of the countries with which we want to do business aren't. Now, you may choose to make a party political point out of this (or you may not) and people scoffed at the notion of an "ethical" foreign policy 25 years ago.

    The problem is we can't control where the oil is - if we don't get it from Russia, the big players remain Saudi Arabia and the UAE and you can ask some pretty searching questions about both countries and the behaviour of their rulers (and in a democracy, we can and should) but your options are simple - either sit in the dark or grab your long spoon.

    There's a bigger point about our dependence on oil which, ever since the Yom Kippur War when oil prices quadrupled without OPEC losing a single customer, has lurked in the battleground but about which we've done precious little. Yes, our cars are much cleaner and more fuel efficient but how many are there now compared with 1974? The fact remains our economy and indeed our very way of life is hyper sensitive to the availability and price of resources (not just oil) which are often in the hands of countries where, to put it mildly, the rulers don't seem to have the personal and official checks and balances our system (despite the antics of the current Government) still possesses.
    There's some good data here - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1006903/DUKES_2021_Chapter_3_Oil_and_oil_products.pdf - on UK oil demand.

    In summary: we use less oil than we used to. Albeit not a lot less.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Phil said:

    Putin is also the kind of person who looks at a country led by a man who once pretended to play a piano with his penis & assumes that they are not a serious opponent. “How could such a person ever inspire resistence against the overwhelming power of the Russian military? They are nothing but an embarassment: the antithesis of Russian manly prowess” he must have thought.

    And yet here we are: it turns out that there are more things on heaven & earth than are thought of in Putin’s philosophy, one of which is that comedians & actors can also be effective, personally brave leaders in wartime who inspire their people by their example.
    On a serious note - the turn around in the Ukrainian military since 2014 is startling. In 2014 they repeatedly got smashed by Russian artillery, because they were congregating in fixed positions, waiting for orders from higher up. In 2022, they seemed to have created an extremely flexible, responsive military.

    While foreign aid must have played a part, there must be a groups of professionals in the Ukrainian military who created this. The books they write on this will be fascinating.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305


    It seems that the vehicle fuel usage in the UK has been falling since a peak in 2007

    image

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/812622/Road_fuel_consumption_and_the_UK_motor_vehicle_fleet.pdf

    This is a fascinating read - the fall in use of oil in petrol vehicles off set by the rise in the number of diesel vehicles from 2001 to 2018 (basically a tripling).

    Someone will correct me (hopefully, indeed certainly as it's PB) but diesel is one of the main concerns around pollution in cities via exhaust emissions from diesel vehicles.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    It is quite remarkable how blindsided so many are when the real reason for Putin's war chest is the disaster that was Angela Merkel when she sold Germany and the EU's soul to Putin by becoming so dependent on his gas

    Germany to this day is sustaining Putin's war
    That's a little harsh: if you think the Germans are dependent on Russian gas, you should see the statistics for Eastern Europe and even Italy.

    But that shouldn't surprise you: countries will tend to buy energy from the nearest source, because transport is expensive.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Are you for real? Russian money in London was the bane of Putin's existence. He wanted to keep it in the country to spend on modernising his military.

    There's a long list of European politicians who are known to have been paid by the Russians as a reward for serving their interests on oil and gas contracts. Those are the people you should be apoplectic about.
    Yes, I'm for real.

    And I'm against ANY politicos getting bribed by foreign tyrants. Most especially those in MY country, America.

    So does ill-gotten & -give largess from Putin & Co. to UK politicos, bother you LESS?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Cyclefree said:

    I go out for the day to visit James Rebanks' farm - and what a charming and knowledgeable host he was - then come back here to learn that William Golding was murdered and Johnson has sex with custard or possibly has custard during sex, or something.

    I am away for 3 days next week on a birthday break. God knows what I'll come back to after that.

    One of his Belted Galloways giving me the side eye below.


    Lovely breed. Supposed to be bred to be easily visible and countable at a distance ...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,282
    Leon said:

    Tell you what, if I was Vlad V Putin, and I'd spent several billion pounds ensuring that the Tory Party and thus the UK was safely in my pocket, I'd be quite pissed off to discover that "in my pocket" actually meant the Tory Party and the UK arming my sworn enemy, over years, with several thousand anti-tank missiles which have now wiped out 25% of my mechanised military

    God knows what Britain might have done if Putin HADN'T bought us off with his billions in London. Given nukes to Kyiv?

    Conservative politicians were bought for a few million not several billions.

    There might have been several billion of Russian money spent in London but the effects of that were more likely negative for the Conservative party.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    IshmaelZ said:

    I thought the filth in Edinburgh were the Lothian And Borders police? Doesn't get much more official than that.
    Lothians (plural) and Borders.

    Not Lothians and the Borders.

    The local gmt unit is Scottish Borders (no The).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    rcs1000 said:

    That's a little harsh: if you think the Germans are dependent on Russian gas, you should see the statistics for Eastern Europe and even Italy.

    But that shouldn't surprise you: countries will tend to buy energy from the nearest source, because transport is expensive.
    Will the Aramco decision make much difference to oil prices?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Carnyx said:

    Lovely breed. Supposed to be bred to be easily visible and countable at a distance ...
    Not being a farmer I confess I did not realise being visible was an issue for any breed of cow.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    Are you for real? Russian money in London was the bane of Putin's existence. He wanted to keep it in the country to spend on modernising his military.

    There's a long list of European politicians who are known to have been paid by the Russians as a reward for serving their interests on oil and gas contracts. Those are the people you should be apoplectic about.
    Ah hem - Putin is rumoured to personally own 50 St James's Street London, so he's been quite happy to squirrel his own money away in London.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Yes there is, Dumfriesshire, Roxburghshire and Berwickshire etc
    You are even more wrong. Dumfriesshire is not part of "The Borders" at all. Because there is (a) no "The Borders" and (b) Dumfriesshire does not exist any more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    .

    @TheScreamingEagles

    She’s not a very good writer is she?

    Who is to say it is not accurate reportage ?
    ‘Binbag full of custard’ has a certain something.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kle4 said:

    Not being a farmer I confess I did not realise being visible was an issue for any breed of cow.
    If they are some way away up a moory hillside it does help.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    rcs1000 said:

    That's a little harsh: if you think the Germans are dependent on Russian gas, you should see the statistics for Eastern Europe and even Italy.

    But that shouldn't surprise you: countries will tend to buy energy from the nearest source, because transport is expensive.
    Hasn't Elon Musk figured out how to wirelessly transmit enough electricity to power everything on earth from a global satellite network yet? What is he wasting his time on?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Carnyx said:

    You are even more wrong. Dumfriesshire is not part of "The Borders" at all. Because there is (a) no "The Borders" and (b) Dumfriesshire does not exist any more.
    Yes there is and both MPs in the area are Tory

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Borders
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    stodge said:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/812622/Road_fuel_consumption_and_the_UK_motor_vehicle_fleet.pdf

    This is a fascinating read - the fall in use of oil in petrol vehicles off set by the rise in the number of diesel vehicles from 2001 to 2018 (basically a tripling).

    Someone will correct me (hopefully, indeed certainly as it's PB) but diesel is one of the main concerns around pollution in cities via exhaust emissions from diesel vehicles.
    Indeed - I still remember, with a smile, the sneering at California and it's particulate emission regulations. Otherwise those stupid Americans would have more diesel vehicles. Which Would Be Better.

    The discovery that the Californians were right and that particulates were a huge problem led, of course, to the great Emissions Cheating scandal. Which was caused by the squeeze on emissions and efficiency demanded from diesel vehicles.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305
    rcs1000 said:


    There's some good data here - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1006903/DUKES_2021_Chapter_3_Oil_and_oil_products.pdf - on UK oil demand.

    In summary: we use less oil than we used to. Albeit not a lot less.

    I've found another document in the series looking at road vehicle consumption which is well worth a read.

    The point remains a lot of people remain essentially dependent on the availability of petrol or diesel whether it's for a car or machinery in their business or whatever and that dependency leaves us susceptible to supply interruptions and price changes just as we were in 1973.

    It's not just oil - there are a number of other key resources on which we are absurdly dependent - rare metals such as iridium for example and others which are key components in all our electronics and semi-conductors.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,859
    kle4 said:

    Not being a farmer I confess I did not realise being visible was an issue for any breed of cow.
    It's the cows bred to be invisible you need to worry about.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    If they are some way away up a moory hillside it does help.
    Re: visibility, don't farmers across UK & RI still put paint on their livestock?
  • It is quite remarkable to see how quickly you forget your own piteous and pious cries for unity.

    Is Germany an appeaser, collaborator or both?
    Germany is none of those but if you think it is immune from criticism when it is not only sustaining Putin's war machine by its addiction to Russian gas but has a half hearted support for Ukraine

    I expect much closer defence and security cooperation with the EU but time to be truthful
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    Gerhard Schröder (and the other German politicians who were similarly purchased) - an investment that worked very well for Putin.

    He was a few months away from getting Nord Stream 2 online. Which would have meant that Putin could have shut off gas to Eastern Europe (selectively) without affecting the big money earner in Western Europe.
    That's not quite true: Germany bought very little gas from the old trans-Ukraine pipeline since Nord Stream 1 came on stream; instead the gas was mostly purchased by the Italians to make up for falling supplies from North Africa.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    kle4 said:

    Hasn't Elon Musk figured out how to wirelessly transmit enough electricity to power everything on earth from a global satellite network yet? What is he wasting his time on?
    Elon Musk, rather famously, dismisses the idea of Space Power Systems (SPS). As he puts it, it is always simpler and cheaper to put the solar panels on the ground.

    On a practical notes, a number of advances in technology (a part of the ongoing electronics and materials revolutions) has made trans-oceanic power cables perfectly possible. A power connector from the UK to Morocco, for example, is perfectly feasible.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    HYUFD said:

    Yes there is and both MPs in the area are Tory

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Borders
    I've always referred to the Scottish Borders Council area as 'the borders'. Nothing weird about that although Dumfriesshire (Moffat, Lockerbie, Langholm, Gretna etc) is Dumfriesshire (or Dumfries and Galloway) not the Borders.

    I don't like the use of the definite article with Ukraine even if used in some languages like German.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202

    Yes, I'm for real.

    And I'm against ANY politicos getting bribed by foreign tyrants. Most especially those in MY country, America.

    So does ill-gotten & -give largess from Putin & Co. to UK politicos, bother you LESS?
    "Ill-gotten"? Remind us where Russian money comes from. They're not running a drugs cartel but selling gas to Germany et al. Several EU Prime Ministers were put directly on the Russian state's payroll.

    What you are doing is conflating this with party donations including from Ukrainian dissidents who clearly had no love for Putin, and tarring anyone vaguely Russian with the Kremlin brush.
  • stodge said:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/812622/Road_fuel_consumption_and_the_UK_motor_vehicle_fleet.pdf

    This is a fascinating read - the fall in use of oil in petrol vehicles off set by the rise in the number of diesel vehicles from 2001 to 2018 (basically a tripling).

    Someone will correct me (hopefully, indeed certainly as it's PB) but diesel is one of the main concerns around pollution in cities via exhaust emissions from diesel vehicles.
    My 2016 BMW diesel emissions exempt me from any city charges and my annual road tax is £30
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    rcs1000 said:

    That's not quite true: Germany bought very little gas from the old trans-Ukraine pipeline since Nord Stream 1 came on stream; instead the gas was mostly purchased by the Italians to make up for falling supplies from North Africa.
    Getting Germany to go ahead with and *part fund* Nord Stream 2 was the prize - what was Khrushchev's line about "the capitalists will sell us the rope"?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562
    Astonishing.

    Ukraine's social media is out of this world in its boldness.

    https://twitter.com/suzanne_moore/status/1505623463687512067?s=21

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305


    Indeed - I still remember, with a smile, the sneering at California and it's particulate emission regulations. Otherwise those stupid Americans would have more diesel vehicles. Which Would Be Better.

    The discovery that the Californians were right and that particulates were a huge problem led, of course, to the great Emissions Cheating scandal. Which was caused by the squeeze on emissions and efficiency demanded from diesel vehicles.

    We now the ULEZ out in my part of London and it is effectively taking older petrol and diesel vehicles off the road. Oddly enough, the ULEZ, while implemented by Sadiq Khan, was conceived by Boris Johnson's team during his tenure as London Mayor so it's a genuine bi-partisan idea.

    It's improving London's air particularly through reductions in Nitrogen dioxide emissions. The big problem now is PM 2.5 and getting that reduced.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    Cyclefree said:

    I go out for the day to visit James Rebanks' farm - and what a charming and knowledgeable host he was - then come back here to learn that William Golding was murdered and Johnson has sex with custard or possibly has custard during sex, or something.

    I am away for 3 days next week on a birthday break. God knows what I'll come back to after that.

    One of his Belted Galloways giving me the side eye below.


    Is that a George Galloway?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    stodge - always choose the lesser of two evils. And as much as I dislike countries committing human rights abuses inside their own borders, I think the priority has to be defending states against unprovoked aggression. That means siding with the gulf nations over Russia. Countries that are not potential global powers.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305

    My 2016 BMW diesel emissions exempt me from any city charges and my annual road tax is £30
    Indeed, the ULEZ in London requires diesels to meet Euro6 emission standards so most post 2015 will be fine.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    My 2016 BMW diesel emissions exempt me from any city charges and my annual road tax is £30
    It is only a matter of a few years until the particulate issue will cause a further tightening of standards.

    This is why the Emissions Scandal happened - the tightening of particulate emissions standards on one side and the requirements to increase efficiency (reduced CO2) on the other made it impossible to build a diesel engine for the price required.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    stodge said:

    We now the ULEZ out in my part of London and it is effectively taking older petrol and diesel vehicles off the road. Oddly enough, the ULEZ, while implemented by Sadiq Khan, was conceived by Boris Johnson's team during his tenure as London Mayor so it's a genuine bi-partisan idea.

    It's improving London's air particularly through reductions in Nitrogen dioxide emissions. The big problem now is PM 2.5 and getting that reduced.
    That's why I think that diesels are doomed in quite short order - increasing efficiency *and* reducing particulates *and* reducing NO2 emissions... the regulations will get tighter and tighter. With electric cars becoming cheaper, the old argument that "we have to live with what is possible" is now gone.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,224

    Maybe he made the same error as the Lib Dems? He underestimated the sheer ruthlessness of the Conservative party. You can do all the favours/give them all the money you like but if you're no longer of use to them you'll be thrown to the wolves ASAP.
    No refunds.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562
    Carnyx said:

    If they are some way away up a moory hillside it does help.
    They are incredibly tough and stay out all year, even in snow.

    Is that a George Galloway?
    Look again. All ladies. All in calf.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Cyclefree said:

    Astonishing.

    Ukraine's social media is out of this world in its boldness.

    https://twitter.com/suzanne_moore/status/1505623463687512067?s=21

    "Great Ukraine"

    LOL

    he's trolling them now...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    .

    Is that a George Galloway?
    No, that breed has a more feline aspect.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    Nigelb said:

    .

    No, that breed has a more feline aspect.
    But by some quirk of biology strangely more full of bullshit.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    edited March 2022
    Leon said:

    Tell you what, if I was Vlad V Putin, and I'd spent several billion pounds ensuring that the Tory Party and thus the UK was safely in my pocket, I'd be quite pissed off to discover that "in my pocket" actually meant the Tory Party and the UK arming my sworn enemy, over years, with several thousand anti-tank missiles which have now wiped out 25% of my mechanised military

    God knows what Britain might have done if Putin HADN'T bought us off with his billions in London. Given nukes to Kyiv?

    Several Billion? The Conservative Party wishes. I think that type of donation would have exploded onto the scene immediately it was reportedly to the Electoral Commission.

    Just because Russia isn't exactly getting their monies worth currently, doesn't mean they didn't do it. I mean clearly they did.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    New Thread

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644

    Ah but which one? There were three Batmans, produced in 1943, 1966 and 1989. (Which makes me think, weren't we due another Batman in 2012?)
    Batmen, surely? :smiley:
This discussion has been closed.