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Special military operation, what is it good for? – politicalbetting.com
Special military operation, what is it good for? – politicalbetting.com
From @IpsosUK today. 46% satisfied with govt handling of Ukraine. 38% dissatisfied. Here is how that compares to past conflicts. pic.twitter.com/kcBEyKsVaC
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A culture note from Psychology Today:
Seeing the good in others is thus a simple but very powerful way to feel happier and more confident, and become more loving and more productive in the world.
Darn those Ukrainians for thinking that the Russians might do something they actually did and taking precautions.
30 km queue already.
The dockers refusing to unload Russian gas perhaps a straw in the wind?
If activist citizens increase the sanctions to close to a blockade...
I feel it in my waters, within a few races the Merc will blow everyone out of the water.
"Absolutely nothing,
say it again, y'all."
(With thanks to Edwin Star)
The World Health Organization has verified 43 attacks on health care in the three weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine and says hundreds more facilities remain at risk.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087209901/world-health-organization-ukraine?t=1647785262329
*Grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
#TaintedTitle
https://twitter.com/thereclaimparty/status/1505497818215112709?s=20&t=MN2T68MjmiYHyfkvdryfPA
Malcolm Ross Newbury (Welsh migrant loving our innovative, industrious, democratic and independent union) thinks it's an entertaining antiwoke viewpoint of the situation.
Destroy to rebuild and control.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19
Basically: the first Russian plan has failed, and we are heading for a bloody stalemate.
Of course the real problem with Ukraine is that it wants to integrate with the decadent west, that failing entity Hitchens so deplores.
I don’t think Mercedes will come up with a quick fix - it’s likely to take several races - but I haven’t yet written them off for the season.
If Red Bull and Ferrari stay close enough to each other, it’s not impossible for Mercedes to come trough the middle if they get their act together.
At the outset it was deeply pessimistic about the prospects of Ukraine and its army. It has gradually modified its view and the report to which you refer is the most optimistic assessment they have produced yet.
My reading of the situation is that the ISW doesn't want to raise false expectations, especially as Russia may yet resort to chemical or tactical nuclear weapons. Nevertheless it is impossible to read their coverage without inferring that the tide has been turning, and may well do so further.
Even if one edits out the analogy that the EU is tantamount to Putin's Russia, there remains an awful lot of, shall we call it, absolute b****cks?
The racing could indeed get spicy.
But Ferrari have two genuine contenders, while Bull have Perez.
Mutual DNFs are likely to see the other Ferrari on the top step.
The question is can they sustain this meat grinder, while the economy collapses from sanctions?
Can you please start backing anyone who plays Newcastle 😉
Putin needs a ‘win’ he can sell, and then a retreat to regroup. Get the sanctions lifted
Except when it's a strategic national goal, where they'll pay for it. And in a few decades time, say they want their 'investment' back ...
In the meantime, there will be less need for infrastructure as many non-Russian Ukrainians will be sent out of the country.
Not sure what Ukraine can do to change that.
https://mobile.twitter.com/OlegNikolenko_/status/1505277919366627336
Speaking to al-Jazeera television, Turkish presidential adviser Ibrahim Kalin said the two warring factions appeared to converge on four key points. He cited Moscow's demand from Ukraine to abandon the prospect of NATO membership, demilitarization, what the Kremlin calls "de-Naziization" and the protection of the Russian language in Ukraine.
Kalin also said that a permanent ceasefire could be achieved after a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. However, the Putin side seems to "consider" that Kiev's positions on issues related to the future regime of Crimea and Donbass have not yet come close enough to the Russians that such a Putin-Zelensky meeting can be justified.
Will he do it? If he gets control, then yes, he will. Sadly.
A lot more gain and suffering to come unless a compromise can be found diplomatically.
Putin is like Hitler in that respect and is a horror to deal with,
And now its raining again. One of my life's ambitions is to watch a test series in the Carribean drinking rum with some mates. I am so glad I didn't choose this one.
But losing the BotD means that the rest of us are less inclined to give him credit when the boy does good and more inclined to believe the worst when he doesn't. See Blair post-Iraq or Major post-Black Wednesday.
Not entirely fair, but human nature. And frankly, a PM expecting sympathy because politics is unfair is as absurd as a fish complaining that water is wet.
Forcible deportation is also a war crime.
Unlike Hitler, he's in charge of a pretty sclerotic regime, so hopefully that restricts the extent of the damage he can wreak.
And that is the "easy" part. You then have to bring in ethnic Russians. Which ethnic Russians would want to move to war destroyed Ukraine?
He wasn't convinced that when France fell, that the UK could do better than simply not fighting, and preventing the Germans invading.
It is an interesting what-if - if the UK in 1940 had simply stopped attacking. Hitler would have pulled a lot more troops to the East, ready for his Big Mistake.
Without the war with Germany, the Japanese might not have been confident they could attack in 1941....
From what I have seen SMRs shift the major capital cost risk from individual power stations to the SMR manufacturer for series production, ie a power station can purchase a couple of mini nukes rather than having to put up the cost of a large power station up front to get economy of scale. However RR (or more likely the UK taxpayer) will be in trouble if they don't sell these mini nukes in bulk. The challenges facing large nuclear power stations largely also apply to smaller ones
Currently there is one protoptype SMR being constructed in China. I am guessing we are talking 2040s for industrial production of a technology with some promise.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505264048002240515
Several thousand Mariupol residents were illegally deported to Russia over the past week
Acc to Oblast Council, they were taken to filtration camps. After their phones and docs inspection, some were driven to remote Russian cities; others' fate is unknown https://t.me/mariupolrada/8913
The deported Mariupol residents are mostly women and kids who were hiding in shelters in the Left Bank district. Fightings took place there. To save people's lives, Ukraine's army withdrew from these places of mass gathering. Russian army made use of it illegally deporting locals
If it were not for its nuclear arsenal, I think you could dismiss Russia as a serious player in world affairs for the foreseeable future.
And it’s not impossible for the policy to succeed if Putin is just wanting to repopulate a southern corridor.
He has levelled a city of 300k. Mass murder and deportation are not beyond him - indeed they are a deliberate instrument of policy.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1505463587292254208
It's more convenient for them to turn the discourse over war crimes to a conspiracy fuelled debate over one incident, and make the entire debate about one thing, not a systematic pattern of crimes. Its exactly what they did in Syria, so let's not repeat the same pattern ourselves…
I don't see them making that up quickly.
You have to say, this duel between Leclerc and Vercrashen is quite exciting though.
Or, indeed, Scotland
The speech has been slammed across the board for his crass Brexit=Ukraine analogy. BTL comments on the Times, for example, were absolutely brutal. You might be safer back on UKIP Home.
Economically, Russia is in a tactically weak position (impact of sanctions, withdrawal of foreign investment), but in an even weaker strategic position. The acceleration of Europe moving away from Russian oil/gas will be impossible to avoid, and won't be coming back given the move to net zero. Demographics are already terrible and a prolonged war will only make them worse by killing off many young men.
What will keep them as a player is their nuclear arsenal and the fear they are more willing than most to use it. Few will fear their conventional warfare in the same way again so long as they under NATO's protection.
Which does leave open the question - what the fuck is Boris playing at pushing nuclear?
For once, he was telling the truth.
They are massive engineering structures.
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1505566830496296964
Patrick Reevell
@Reevellp
·
18m
Angry (and fearless) crowd confronting Russian troops in the occupied Ukrainian city of Energodar (home to the nuclear plant).
A Russian soldier fires his rifle over his head but the crowd doesn’t flinch.
https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1505566638153809923
Offshore wind farms got hammered through, because, to the anger of some in the environmental community, the old Polaris sales jingle still works*.
Mini-nukes on existing nuclear sites will get enough local support to be able to tell the environmental groups to piss off.
Tidal lagoons are simply too vulnerable to the planning issue.
Which is why I wonder if tidal turbines are not a better better. You can increment them, much more easily....
*"Put the missile out to see. Where it's far away from me".
By the way, can I just reiterate my suggestion of a saltwater jet, like the Jet D'Eau in Geneva, being engineered into the Swansea Bay scheme? More than anything, probably even his love of free holidays and posh totty, Boris wants a legacy. The Boris jet, the highest saltwater jet in the world, would be a huge icon and tourist attraction. He might even risk the displeasure of the powerful lobbies to make it happen. This is someone who insisted on a land bridge over the Irish sea.
This gets the environmentalists who are interested in such areas very, very upset.
And even if lagoons got hit by costs that were doubled, they would still be a third cheaper than nuclear. And last 2, 3, 4 or more times as long. But there is no reason to believe that the costings are adrift at all.
(My background is the oil industry, where if cost overruns approach 10%, the operator is likely to get fired. Private sector vs public sector costings....public sector just gets a tut and a pay cheque.)
His track record over legacy projects isn't great, though the long term and permanent impairment of the Conservative and Unionist party looks promising.