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The French election round two – latest polling – politicalbetting.com
The French election round two – latest polling – politicalbetting.com
??#France, presidential election poll (2nd round):??Macron (LREM): 60 %??Le Pen (RN): 40 %?Macron (LREM): 66 % (-1)?Zemmour (R!): 34 % (+1)?Macron (LREM): 67 % (+2)?Mélenchon (FI): 33 % (-2)?Macron (LREM): 63 %?Pécresse (LR): 37 %Ipsos, 15/03/22 pic.twitter.com/wvHPG3Qbe8
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So here goes:
FIRST!
PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.
This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/
To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.
"'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.
I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.
Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.
Am I wrong?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 <—How the war in Yemen started.
For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.
I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
No offence but I feel you may have developed a bit of a blind spot.
That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.
Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
But there is also not much optimism about Russia. Their troops are having a hard time, and every day the war continues, they are losing material and money they can ill afford to lose. And every day that it continues, every crime they commit, the harder it will be for the 'west' to lift sanctions, even if Russia 'win'.
In addition, I cannot see how Russia can 'pacify' Ukraine, it it wants it to be a satellite state.
Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia. And Russia will always be regarded as the fascists, the side in the wrong. It is a stain that will dwell on Russia for decades.
I assume that's a yes to more double tapping, and selling of the resources to facilitate it.
The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.
The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
https://www.ft.com/content/f5fb2996-f816-4011-a440-30350fa48831
I shouldn’t laugh given the suffering it’s causing but really…
As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.
The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.
We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
To give up the Oligarchs rubles to grasp as the blood soaked arabian petro-dollars may be realpolitik, but it is aligning with evil.
Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords
One of few things for which Donald Trump deserves credit.
The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine
Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented
Equally you could say much the same about the House of Saud.
The Sunni vs Shia 'dispute' seems about as pointless, in reality, as that between Catholic 'Christians' and Protestant "Christians' in Europe in the 16th & 17th Centuries. Which, in some places of course, is still going on.
You'd think a benevolent God would have banged heads together long since.
And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
The strands of Middle Eastern geopolitics are staggeringly complex. I mentioned Wahabism earlier, which is the dominant force in Qatar but there are, literally, hundreds of competing forces at work. Even in a country like Saudi Arabia there are huge competing factions.
I'm sure you all remember the famous 2013 letter in the Washington Post? Here it is in case you missed it. A lot has changed since then, but much has not:
Sir, Iran is backing Assad. Gulf states are against Assad!
Assad is against Muslim Brotherhood. Muslim Brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi.
But Gulf states are pro-Sisi! Which means they are against Muslim Brotherhood!
Iran is pro-Hamas, but Hamas is backing Muslim Brotherhood!
Obama is backing Muslim Brotherhood, yet Hamas is against the U.S.!
Gulf states are pro-U.S. But Turkey is with Gulf states against Assad; yet Turkey is pro-Muslim Brotherhood against General Sisi. And General Sisi is being backed by the Gulf states!
Welcome to the Middle East and have a nice day.
KN Al-Sabah,
London EC4, U.K.
You are a coward.
The Right, well represented on here, are cowards. Yes that's you.
I ran into a lot of trouble in Qatar which I won't go into here but suffice to say that I saw the really nasty side behind the facade. As I'm sure you know if you work in Qatar you have to hand over your passport and you are not permitted to leave without obtaining an exit visa.
I love their airline though!
But - is there much logical argument against the idea that long term / strategically the outcome of all this will screw Russia?
Sanctions aren’t going to disappear whatever happens. That means Russia’s economy takes a permanent and severe hit.
There’s a determined attempt to break the dependency on Russian energy and the influence that comes with it.
The hunt to root out Russian influence is on - whether you feel particular actions are ‘overzealous’ or not.
NATO looks more cohesive as an entity than it did, and will likely be reinforced by the rearming of Europe rather than weakened by it.
No military outcome in Ukraine that benefits Russia looks sustainable.
Were these Russia’s long term strategic goals for the invasion? If so they’re doing a sterling job.
NFZ is not an option recognised across the political divide and would risk WW111
And cut out the insults, I am no coward as I respect life and do not seek armageddon
What is wrong with you
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1503982627522494465/photo/1
UK military assessment is that the Russian advance has stalled. I have been pointing this out for 4-5 days now. Almost no progress at all. But even sitting still is a serious logistical drain on them and the Ukrainians are attacking stationary targets. The Russians cannot get their artillary within range of Kyiv. They are having to rely upon missiles to hit it and they seem to have a limited supply.
Also reports on BBC that Russia is becoming more "realistic" in the peace talks, according to Ukraine.
It is starting to look as if this military impasse might favour Ukraine who continue to get lots of hi tec from western sources. About 3-4 days ago I forecast counterattacks by Ukraine within the week relying upon Russia's logistical problems to even the fight. I still believe that will happen imminentely.
The net result may be, almost certainly will be, a short and medium term downturn but in the long term? I'm not so sure.
It's a real pity that some on the right on here can't debate stuff like this. They are so blinkered in their hatred of anything that suggests Russia isn't faring as badly as we all may wish that they just pile-on against any alternate view. They are in their own echo chamber.
My big worry long term is that Russia comes out of this with massively new forged links with China, SE Asia, India and the Middle East. And that would be a pretty disturbing geopolitical block.
There was a good piece in the Telegraph the other day:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
What I have heard so far only strengthens my expectations that this will happen. Neither side wins, or is even close to winning, both Russia and Ukraine were much better off before the start of the war, but the peace would be better than ongoing war for both.
Patel is a disgrace and has been sidelined thankfully
https://mobile.twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1503864619932205065
Can't you just nick a plane and smuggle them over?
Where are those freedom-loving right wingers when it really matters? You are nowhere. You wring your hands and congratulate yourselves that your sanctions and supplies of missiles are doing the job whilst all the while an entire country is getting pulverised.
I had respect for some of you but you have shown yourselves to be cowards. You aren't prepared to put your lives at risk to save others. It doesn't matter whether they belong to NATO or the EU or EFTA. They belong to the human race.
"First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."
India and China will be looking at what they can get out of Russia - and whether helping Russia over a territorial dispute harms their own wider geopolitical aims. They both might just cast Russia out. Perhaps.
I saw a prediction the other day of a 30% drop in Russian GDP this year, and Ukraines will be bigger still. At least Ukraine will get aid, if still free.
You are correct about Qatar though, a horrible place with a great airline.
Gove is a snake oil salesman.
You are like the “I’m not a racist, my best friend is black but…”. Except it’s “I’m anti Putin but…” while daily espousing non sensical policy positions that serve no one but Putin.
It’s tiresome. As for your accusations to “the Right” and “cowards”?
(I'm London based but try to get out to the country as often as possible now.)
A large swathe of western Ukraine has essentially been untouched by the conflict, and that gives Ukraine room to store lots of men and material - potentially, and give troops time off the front line. It certainly gives them room to train more recruits and build up reserves - *if* they can.
If Ukraine have virtually no reserves, then they're going to find it incredibly hard. If they've got a fair few fresh people and kit (especially if they're experienced), then they could cause Russia a fair amount of trouble.
'Reserves' is a word often used about Russia. It is not often said about Ukraine. Do they not have any? If they do, it might not be in their interests to broadcast it. If they do not, then it is certainly not in their interests to broadcast it ...
There is terror on both sides.
(Hmm. Hang Seng up over 8% overnight. Astonishing volatility. I am sitting tight)
I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.
We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?
If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.
So what?
I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
Comparable, I suggest to the 'enclosures', which helped to create the dispossessed industrial working class of the 19thC which so upset and inspired Messrs Engels and Marx.
The open-source website has 1,349 losses.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
The Ukrainians are claiming about 2,000 losses.
https://www.minusrus.com/en/
Now, these aren't totally analogous in what they count, but they do seem nearer than I expected - especially as the open-source effort will certainly not be catching everything.
This is why the scale of US support in particular is critical and why the Russians are now threatening to target those supplying it, risking US casuaties. If the Germans now fully join in too Ukraine's deployable forces will increase considerably. If they do the tide in this war will turn.
What about Corbyn?
39% of the party support the policy and only 37% are against so the government must obey the wishes of the party
What about the terrible EU?
I blame the woke for making us raze Manchester
who's going to have "freedom" after that? the Ukrainian cockroaches?
This is a political betting forum and it should have representative views from right and left. Get over it and grow up.
We need to have courage and stand up for the people of Ukraine against this ogre in the Kremlin ... militarily.
"I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?"
than however you say you connect to the internet
Mrs DA has gone to the Netherlands and moved into an apartment with them so at least they are safe and looked after for now. Very few people have the resources to be able to do that so the system is failing a lot of people who desperately need help.
Wow the cowardice on the right is staggering.
I believe Maggie would have stood up to Putin and would have persuaded that wet drip in the White House to install a NFZ.
But then, she had far more courage than the entire male cabinet around her.
And now some great football stadiums ... built on the backs of Indian migrant workers in appalling slave-labour conditions.
When an external shock or two disrupts the free-market value of something, the government gets the blame.
In your version of events we’d be fighting an all out war across Europe, with the very real chance of nuclear strikes. The horror to millions across Europe would be incalculable. The costs to rebuild would cripple Europe for decades.
And please stop saying we have done nothing militarily to help Ukraine. You are just lying when you do.
My daughter is organising a pick up from a Ukrainian charity of medical and sanitary supplies on Friday. She has received a fair bit of money and is going to be doing a megashop tomorrow, using the money she has been given. People are desperate to help as you and your wife have vividly demonstrated and the government remains behind the curve on this.
Re Ukrainian reconstruction, why not just use the frozen Russian oligarch and state assets?
#GMB https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1503656726670856196/video/1
First they came for JRM, and I did not speak out—because it was funny.
Then they came for James Cleverly, and I did not speak out— because I didn't know who he was.
Then they came for Priti Patel, and I did not speak out—because they brought her straight back.
Then they came for Johnson —and I did speak out, saying, Thank fuck for that.
1. You repeatedly state that the west and the UK have done nothing to aid Ukraine. This is wrong. Untrue. Demonstrably bollocks. That you keep repeating it gives you little to no credibility on the subject
2. Not wanting WWIII is "cowardice", therefore wanting to provoke it is bravery. Which means Putin is demonstrating Bravery. Not sure that's what you mean, see point 1.
There is a case to be made for NATO stepping up and doing more. If this escalates we may have to. But holding off escalating the war is not "cowardice". More bollocks - laughable, pitiful bollocks this time - in addition to your "we haven't helped Ukraine bollocks.
Surely the UK government has just made a calculation of how many extra school places and doctors appointments they would have to provide for perhaps hundreds of thousands of people and they want other countries to deal with it.
So what will make President Putin come out of this disastrous war looking good in the eyes of Russia's majority? Firstly, an assurance, perhaps even to be written into Ukraine's constitution, that it has no intention of joining Nato in the foreseeable future. President Zelensky has already prepared the way for this, by asking Nato for something it couldn't agree to (establishing a no-fly-zone over Ukraine), then criticising the alliance for letting him down on this, and finally musing out loud that he wasn't sure that if Nato behaved like this, it was actually worth joining. As clever and wise political positioning goes, it doesn't get much better than this. Nato gets the blame, which it can easily cope with, and Ukraine gets the freedom to act as it wants.
Incidentally, posting from a compromised PC isn't a VPN and is a security risk for the person doing it.
130% increase on our electricity D/D.
Fortunately we can afford it; I am about to spend today at Citizens Advice trying to help people who have no chance of affording such an increase.
The way this amoral government treats these poor people demonstrates just how bad they are.