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The French election round two – latest polling – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited March 2022 in General
The French election round two – latest polling – politicalbetting.com

??#France, presidential election poll (2nd round):??Macron (LREM): 60 %??Le Pen (RN): 40 %?Macron (LREM): 66 % (-1)?Zemmour (R!): 34 % (+1)?Macron (LREM): 67 % (+2)?Mélenchon (FI): 33 % (-2)?Macron (LREM): 63 %?Pécresse (LR): 37 %Ipsos, 15/03/22 pic.twitter.com/wvHPG3Qbe8

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    I've been waiting ages for someone else to grab the first, but no-one's bitten.

    So here goes:

    FIRST!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Tapestry gets everywhere?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 <—How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?

    'Obviously I hate to be pessimistic'

    No offence but I feel you may have developed a bit of a blind spot.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?

    I don't see much 'optimism' about Ukraine. They're suffering terribly, and although there are routes to it coming out of this war a coherent, viable and independent state, those routes are narrow and perilous. They're the plucky underdogs facing evil, so most of us are on their side. So we applaud every success they have - and they are having some.

    But there is also not much optimism about Russia. Their troops are having a hard time, and every day the war continues, they are losing material and money they can ill afford to lose. And every day that it continues, every crime they commit, the harder it will be for the 'west' to lift sanctions, even if Russia 'win'.

    In addition, I cannot see how Russia can 'pacify' Ukraine, it it wants it to be a satellite state.

    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia. And Russia will always be regarded as the fascists, the side in the wrong. It is a stain that will dwell on Russia for decades.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    ..
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 <—How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims. </p>
    Ah, 'terrorists'! Glad we sorted that out.

    I assume that's a yes to more double tapping, and selling of the resources to facilitate it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Good FT summary of the equipment of the opposing forces in Ukraine

    https://www.ft.com/content/f5fb2996-f816-4011-a440-30350fa48831
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    Saudi Arabia is looking for Israeli help in a war against Iranian proxies?

    I shouldn’t laugh given the suffering it’s causing but really…
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    Saudi and UAE have a long history of despotism and export of terrorist ideologies.

    To give up the Oligarchs rubles to grasp as the blood soaked arabian petro-dollars may be realpolitik, but it is aligning with evil.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    Saudi and UAE have a long history of despotism and export of terrorist ideologies.

    To give up the Oligarchs rubles to grasp as the blood soaked arabian petro-dollars may be realpolitik, but it is aligning with evil.

    Finally we agree
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    Saudi and UAE have a long history of despotism and export of terrorist ideologies.

    To give up the Oligarchs rubles to grasp as the blood soaked arabian petro-dollars may be realpolitik, but it is aligning with evil.

    It also hardly needs saying that we're on the side of the terrorists against the legitimate Government in Syria. Or should that be called a 'regime' because we don't like him? And would that make the terrorists 'freedom fighters' despite them being cannibalistic islamist nut jobs? It's all so confusing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    Saudi Arabia is looking for Israeli help in a war against Iranian proxies?

    I shouldn’t laugh given the suffering it’s causing but really…
    Hence the Abraham Accords last year, which resulted in the normalisation of relations between Israel and UAE. It would have been a big global story, were it not that there was a global pandemic in full effect at the time.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords

    One of few things for which Donald Trump deserves credit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited March 2022

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    Saudi and UAE have a long history of despotism and export of terrorist ideologies.

    To give up the Oligarchs rubles to grasp as the blood soaked arabian petro-dollars may be realpolitik, but it is aligning with evil.

    It also hardly needs saying that we're on the side of the terrorists against the legitimate Government in Syria. Or should that be called a 'regime' because we don't like him? And would that make the terrorists 'freedom fighters' despite them being cannibalistic islamist nut jobs? It's all so confusing.
    Leaving aside your conflation of Daesh with all Syrian opposition groups, the current government of Syria took power in a military coup in 1963. Hardly the 'legitimate government,' more the de facto one.

    Equally you could say much the same about the House of Saud.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Not so bright here this morning. Cloudy, with a threat of rain rain later.

    The Sunni vs Shia 'dispute' seems about as pointless, in reality, as that between Catholic 'Christians' and Protestant "Christians' in Europe in the 16th & 17th Centuries. Which, in some places of course, is still going on.

    You'd think a benevolent God would have banged heads together long since.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Time will tell in both cases. IANAE (and I bet neither are you), but these sanctions against Russia seem tough - much tougher than I expected. To beat them, Russia needs to make many large friends - India or China being examples. But even if it does that, it is placing itself as a *smaller* power than them, and its reputation is shot.

    And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    The war in Yemen is not just about religious sectarianism.

    The strands of Middle Eastern geopolitics are staggeringly complex. I mentioned Wahabism earlier, which is the dominant force in Qatar but there are, literally, hundreds of competing forces at work. Even in a country like Saudi Arabia there are huge competing factions.

    I'm sure you all remember the famous 2013 letter in the Washington Post? Here it is in case you missed it. A lot has changed since then, but much has not:

    Sir, Iran is backing Assad. Gulf states are against Assad!
    Assad is against Muslim Brotherhood. Muslim Brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi.
    But Gulf states are pro-Sisi! Which means they are against Muslim Brotherhood!
    Iran is pro-Hamas, but Hamas is backing Muslim Brotherhood!
    Obama is backing Muslim Brotherhood, yet Hamas is against the U.S.!
    Gulf states are pro-U.S. But Turkey is with Gulf states against Assad; yet Turkey is pro-Muslim Brotherhood against General Sisi. And General Sisi is being backed by the Gulf states!
    Welcome to the Middle East and have a nice day.
    KN Al-Sabah,
    London EC4, U.K.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    We should be declaring a No Fly Zone even if that does risk all out nuclear war.

    The Right, well represented on here, are cowards. Yes that's you.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    Saudi and UAE have a long history of despotism and export of terrorist ideologies.

    To give up the Oligarchs rubles to grasp as the blood soaked arabian petro-dollars may be realpolitik, but it is aligning with evil.

    The NUFC approach to civilising the heathen: in exchange for blood soaked Riyals we provide top quality football(!)/armaments and thereby a restraining and enlightening hand upon the shoulder of our sword wielding pals.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I would like to have Sandpit's comments whilst he has re-settled in London. In many parts of the Middle East one is always looking over one's shoulder ...

    I ran into a lot of trouble in Qatar which I won't go into here but suffice to say that I saw the really nasty side behind the facade. As I'm sure you know if you work in Qatar you have to hand over your passport and you are not permitted to leave without obtaining an exit visa.

    I love their airline though!
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140
    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    I’m sure hope (that the Ukrainians ‘win’) clouds judgement - I’m sure it does mine. The situation is also desperately sad, whatever the end result.

    But - is there much logical argument against the idea that long term / strategically the outcome of all this will screw Russia?

    Sanctions aren’t going to disappear whatever happens. That means Russia’s economy takes a permanent and severe hit.

    There’s a determined attempt to break the dependency on Russian energy and the influence that comes with it.

    The hunt to root out Russian influence is on - whether you feel particular actions are ‘overzealous’ or not.

    NATO looks more cohesive as an entity than it did, and will likely be reinforced by the rearming of Europe rather than weakened by it.

    No military outcome in Ukraine that benefits Russia looks sustainable.

    Were these Russia’s long term strategic goals for the invasion? If so they’re doing a sterling job.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    Our two refugees have been told they will have a visa interview within 10 days and a decision within 12 weeks. Well done, Gove. 👓🍆💦
  • Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    We should be declaring a No Fly Zone even if that does risk all out nuclear war.

    The Right, well represented on here, are cowards. Yes that's you.
    You and your right obsession is pathetic

    NFZ is not an option recognised across the political divide and would risk WW111

    And cut out the insults, I am no coward as I respect life and do not seek armageddon
  • Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    One moment posters are right wingers, now they are cowards

    What is wrong with you
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?

    Yes, I think that you are.
    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1503982627522494465/photo/1

    UK military assessment is that the Russian advance has stalled. I have been pointing this out for 4-5 days now. Almost no progress at all. But even sitting still is a serious logistical drain on them and the Ukrainians are attacking stationary targets. The Russians cannot get their artillary within range of Kyiv. They are having to rely upon missiles to hit it and they seem to have a limited supply.

    Also reports on BBC that Russia is becoming more "realistic" in the peace talks, according to Ukraine.

    It is starting to look as if this military impasse might favour Ukraine who continue to get lots of hi tec from western sources. About 3-4 days ago I forecast counterattacks by Ukraine within the week relying upon Russia's logistical problems to even the fight. I still believe that will happen imminentely.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Time will tell in both cases. IANAE (and I bet neither are you), but these sanctions against Russia seem tough - much tougher than I expected. To beat them, Russia needs to make many large friends - India or China being examples. But even if it does that, it is placing itself as a *smaller* power than them, and its reputation is shot.

    And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
    I really worry about this. I fear that Russia has a lot of (economic) support in other places: Africa as well as with India, the Middle East and China of course.

    The net result may be, almost certainly will be, a short and medium term downturn but in the long term? I'm not so sure.

    It's a real pity that some on the right on here can't debate stuff like this. They are so blinkered in their hatred of anything that suggests Russia isn't faring as badly as we all may wish that they just pile-on against any alternate view. They are in their own echo chamber.

    My big worry long term is that Russia comes out of this with massively new forged links with China, SE Asia, India and the Middle East. And that would be a pretty disturbing geopolitical block.

    There was a good piece in the Telegraph the other day:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,818
    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?

    My prediction a few days after the start of the war was that Russia would fail to meet its original objectives so we would get a peace deal around end of March/start of April that would see Russia keep Crimea and something in between for Donbass/Luhansk, either autonomy or a referendum.

    What I have heard so far only strengthens my expectations that this will happen. Neither side wins, or is even close to winning, both Russia and Ukraine were much better off before the start of the war, but the peace would be better than ongoing war for both.

  • Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    I am surprised you would comment like that with Gove scheme now open to hundreds of thousands

    Patel is a disgrace and has been sidelined thankfully
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    We should be declaring a No Fly Zone even if that does risk all out nuclear war.

    The Right, well represented on here, are cowards. Yes that's you.
    Someone different must be operating your account from the spam factory today, since yesterday's user was bemoaning all the insults and aggression in here.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Looks like Ukraine hit Russian helicopters on the ground at Kherson airport again.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1503864619932205065
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    Our two refugees have been told they will have a visa interview within 10 days and a decision within 12 weeks. Well done, Gove. 👓🍆💦
    Bloody hell.

    Can't you just nick a plane and smuggle them over?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Time will tell in both cases. IANAE (and I bet neither are you), but these sanctions against Russia seem tough - much tougher than I expected. To beat them, Russia needs to make many large friends - India or China being examples. But even if it does that, it is placing itself as a *smaller* power than them, and its reputation is shot.

    And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
    I really worry about this. I fear that Russia has a lot of (economic) support in other places: Africa as well as with India, the Middle East and China of course.

    The net result may be, almost certainly will be, a short and medium term downturn but in the long term? I'm not so sure.

    It's a real pity that some on the right on here can't debate stuff like this. They are so blinkered in their hatred of anything that suggests Russia isn't faring as badly as we all may wish that they just pile-on against any alternate view. They are in their own echo chamber.

    My big worry long term is that Russia comes out of this with massively new forged links with China, SE Asia, India and the Middle East. And that would be a pretty disturbing geopolitical block.

    There was a good piece in the Telegraph the other day:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
    "It's a pity that some on the right Can't debate stuff like this" = "it's a pity everyone doesn't agree with me."
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    great use of uk bombs
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Looks like Ukraine hit Russian helicopters on the ground at Kherson airport again.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/status/1503864619932205065

    3rd time, these Russians don't really want to win it seems.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited March 2022
    Big G, the point is that the idea that I'm a Putin troll when I'm the only one on here who thinks we should fight the bastard is an absolute joke. A sick one.

    Where are those freedom-loving right wingers when it really matters? You are nowhere. You wring your hands and congratulate yourselves that your sanctions and supplies of missiles are doing the job whilst all the while an entire country is getting pulverised.

    I had respect for some of you but you have shown yourselves to be cowards. You aren't prepared to put your lives at risk to save others. It doesn't matter whether they belong to NATO or the EU or EFTA. They belong to the human race.


    "First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.

    Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.

    Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.

    Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Time will tell in both cases. IANAE (and I bet neither are you), but these sanctions against Russia seem tough - much tougher than I expected. To beat them, Russia needs to make many large friends - India or China being examples. But even if it does that, it is placing itself as a *smaller* power than them, and its reputation is shot.

    And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
    I really worry about this. I fear that Russia has a lot of (economic) support in other places: Africa as well as with India, the Middle East and China of course.

    The net result may be, almost certainly will be, a short and medium term downturn but in the long term? I'm not so sure.

    It's a real pity that some on the right on here can't debate stuff like this. They are so blinkered in their hatred of anything that suggests Russia isn't faring as badly as we all may wish that they just pile-on against any alternate view. They are in their own echo chamber.

    My big worry long term is that Russia comes out of this with massively new forged links with China, SE Asia, India and the Middle East. And that would be a pretty disturbing geopolitical block.

    There was a good piece in the Telegraph the other day:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
    Russia would be a minor party in any alliance with China and India. And the problem with an alliance between Russia, China and India is that whilst India and Russia have strong links, they both have border disagreements with China that have led to conflict within the last sixty years.

    India and China will be looking at what they can get out of Russia - and whether helping Russia over a territorial dispute harms their own wider geopolitical aims. They both might just cast Russia out. Perhaps.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Time will tell in both cases. IANAE (and I bet neither are you), but these sanctions against Russia seem tough - much tougher than I expected. To beat them, Russia needs to make many large friends - India or China being examples. But even if it does that, it is placing itself as a *smaller* power than them, and its reputation is shot.

    And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
    I really worry about this. I fear that Russia has a lot of (economic) support in other places: Africa as well as with India, the Middle East and China of course.

    The net result may be, almost certainly will be, a short and medium term downturn but in the long term? I'm not so sure.

    It's a real pity that some on the right on here can't debate stuff like this. They are so blinkered in their hatred of anything that suggests Russia isn't faring as badly as we all may wish that they just pile-on against any alternate view. They are in their own echo chamber.

    My big worry long term is that Russia comes out of this with massively new forged links with China, SE Asia, India and the Middle East. And that would be a pretty disturbing geopolitical block.

    There was a good piece in the Telegraph the other day:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
    I think though that what Russia wants is not available from China, India or Africa. Sure, Africa will buy Russian grain and oil, China too, but Russia doesn't just want to be a primary producer for others, and its population want Western trinkets.

    I saw a prediction the other day of a 30% drop in Russian GDP this year, and Ukraines will be bigger still. At least Ukraine will get aid, if still free.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Heathener said:

    I would like to have Sandpit's comments whilst he has re-settled in London. In many parts of the Middle East one is always looking over one's shoulder ...

    I ran into a lot of trouble in Qatar which I won't go into here but suffice to say that I saw the really nasty side behind the facade. As I'm sure you know if you work in Qatar you have to hand over your passport and you are not permitted to leave without obtaining an exit visa.

    I love their airline though!

    I’m not in London. Where are you based?

    You are correct about Qatar though, a horrible place with a great airline.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Time will tell in both cases. IANAE (and I bet neither are you), but these sanctions against Russia seem tough - much tougher than I expected. To beat them, Russia needs to make many large friends - India or China being examples. But even if it does that, it is placing itself as a *smaller* power than them, and its reputation is shot.

    And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
    I really worry about this. I fear that Russia has a lot of (economic) support in other places: Africa as well as with India, the Middle East and China of course.

    The net result may be, almost certainly will be, a short and medium term downturn but in the long term? I'm not so sure.

    It's a real pity that some on the right on here can't debate stuff like this. They are so blinkered in their hatred of anything that suggests Russia isn't faring as badly as we all may wish that they just pile-on against any alternate view. They are in their own echo chamber.

    My big worry long term is that Russia comes out of this with massively new forged links with China, SE Asia, India and the Middle East. And that would be a pretty disturbing geopolitical block.

    There was a good piece in the Telegraph the other day:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
    On the bright side if China replaces coal with Russian gas it's a bit of rare (relatively) good news for the environment
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    I am surprised you would comment like that with Gove scheme now open to hundreds of thousands

    Patel is a disgrace and has been sidelined thankfully
    we have seen usual verbal diahorrea from Gove, let's see how many people are ever allowed in. Happy to bet UK will take smallest proportion in the end.
    Gove is a snake oil salesman.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?

    Yes
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Time will tell in both cases. IANAE (and I bet neither are you), but these sanctions against Russia seem tough - much tougher than I expected. To beat them, Russia needs to make many large friends - India or China being examples. But even if it does that, it is placing itself as a *smaller* power than them, and its reputation is shot.

    And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
    I really worry about this. I fear that Russia has a lot of (economic) support in other places: Africa as well as with India, the Middle East and China of course.

    The net result may be, almost certainly will be, a short and medium term downturn but in the long term? I'm not so sure.

    It's a real pity that some on the right on here can't debate stuff like this. They are so blinkered in their hatred of anything that suggests Russia isn't faring as badly as we all may wish that they just pile-on against any alternate view. They are in their own echo chamber.

    My big worry long term is that Russia comes out of this with massively new forged links with China, SE Asia, India and the Middle East. And that would be a pretty disturbing geopolitical block.

    There was a good piece in the Telegraph the other day:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
    Russia would be a minor party in any alliance with China and India. And the problem with an alliance between Russia, China and India is that whilst India and Russia have strong links, they both have border disagreements with China that have led to conflict within the last sixty years.

    India and China will be looking at what they can get out of Russia - and whether helping Russia over a territorial dispute harms their own wider geopolitical aims. They both might just cast Russia out. Perhaps.
    China is happily waiting for the Moscow stock market to reopen, to see what they can pick up at a 90% discount.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working. Meanwhile a direct confrontation of any sort between Nato and Russia serves only to validate Putin’s world view and save his political (and actual) skin.

    You are like the “I’m not a racist, my best friend is black but…”. Except it’s “I’m anti Putin but…” while daily espousing non sensical policy positions that serve no one but Putin.

    It’s tiresome. As for your accusations to “the Right” and “cowards”?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    I am surprised you would comment like that with Gove scheme now open to hundreds of thousands

    Patel is a disgrace and has been sidelined thankfully
    we have seen usual verbal diahorrea from Gove, let's see how many people are ever allowed in. Happy to bet UK will take smallest proportion in the end.
    Gove is a snake oil salesman.
    Per capita? And restricted to European countries? If so then I would say that is a racing certainty.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    I would like to have Sandpit's comments whilst he has re-settled in London. In many parts of the Middle East one is always looking over one's shoulder ...

    I ran into a lot of trouble in Qatar which I won't go into here but suffice to say that I saw the really nasty side behind the facade. As I'm sure you know if you work in Qatar you have to hand over your passport and you are not permitted to leave without obtaining an exit visa.

    I love their airline though!

    I’m not in London. Where are you based?

    You are correct about Qatar though, a horrible place with a great airline.
    No I know you're not. I was just wondering if, when you are, you'd be a little freer to comment.

    (I'm London based but try to get out to the country as often as possible now.)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    Big G worships Boris particularly and Tories in general, it is quite unnerving.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    I would like to have Sandpit's comments whilst he has re-settled in London. In many parts of the Middle East one is always looking over one's shoulder ...

    I ran into a lot of trouble in Qatar which I won't go into here but suffice to say that I saw the really nasty side behind the facade. As I'm sure you know if you work in Qatar you have to hand over your passport and you are not permitted to leave without obtaining an exit visa.

    I love their airline though!

    I’m not in London. Where are you based?

    You are correct about Qatar though, a horrible place with a great airline.
    Hell of a lot of gas in the North Field though. Nearly half a quadrillion cubic feet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?

    Yes, I think that you are.
    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1503982627522494465/photo/1

    UK military assessment is that the Russian advance has stalled. I have been pointing this out for 4-5 days now. Almost no progress at all. But even sitting still is a serious logistical drain on them and the Ukrainians are attacking stationary targets. The Russians cannot get their artillary within range of Kyiv. They are having to rely upon missiles to hit it and they seem to have a limited supply.

    Also reports on BBC that Russia is becoming more "realistic" in the peace talks, according to Ukraine.

    It is starting to look as if this military impasse might favour Ukraine who continue to get lots of hi tec from western sources. About 3-4 days ago I forecast counterattacks by Ukraine within the week relying upon Russia's logistical problems to even the fight. I still believe that will happen imminentely.
    The big question about Ukraine is how many reserves they have?

    A large swathe of western Ukraine has essentially been untouched by the conflict, and that gives Ukraine room to store lots of men and material - potentially, and give troops time off the front line. It certainly gives them room to train more recruits and build up reserves - *if* they can.

    If Ukraine have virtually no reserves, then they're going to find it incredibly hard. If they've got a fair few fresh people and kit (especially if they're experienced), then they could cause Russia a fair amount of trouble.

    'Reserves' is a word often used about Russia. It is not often said about Ukraine. Do they not have any? If they do, it might not be in their interests to broadcast it. If they do not, then it is certainly not in their interests to broadcast it ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    ..
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 <—How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government...</p>
    What your link describes is a civil war in which the Saudis intervened. With extraordinary mass brutality against civilians.

    There is terror on both sides.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    edited March 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Time will tell in both cases. IANAE (and I bet neither are you), but these sanctions against Russia seem tough - much tougher than I expected. To beat them, Russia needs to make many large friends - India or China being examples. But even if it does that, it is placing itself as a *smaller* power than them, and its reputation is shot.

    And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
    I really worry about this. I fear that Russia has a lot of (economic) support in other places: Africa as well as with India, the Middle East and China of course.

    The net result may be, almost certainly will be, a short and medium term downturn but in the long term? I'm not so sure.

    It's a real pity that some on the right on here can't debate stuff like this. They are so blinkered in their hatred of anything that suggests Russia isn't faring as badly as we all may wish that they just pile-on against any alternate view. They are in their own echo chamber.

    My big worry long term is that Russia comes out of this with massively new forged links with China, SE Asia, India and the Middle East. And that would be a pretty disturbing geopolitical block.

    There was a good piece in the Telegraph the other day:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
    Russia would be a minor party in any alliance with China and India. And the problem with an alliance between Russia, China and India is that whilst India and Russia have strong links, they both have border disagreements with China that have led to conflict within the last sixty years.

    India and China will be looking at what they can get out of Russia - and whether helping Russia over a territorial dispute harms their own wider geopolitical aims. They both might just cast Russia out. Perhaps.
    China is happily waiting for the Moscow stock market to reopen, to see what they can pick up at a 90% discount.
    Looking at the China markets, they might be able to buy their own stocks at that discount shortly!

    (Hmm. Hang Seng up over 8% overnight. Astonishing volatility. I am sitting tight)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    I would like to have Sandpit's comments whilst he has re-settled in London. In many parts of the Middle East one is always looking over one's shoulder ...

    I ran into a lot of trouble in Qatar which I won't go into here but suffice to say that I saw the really nasty side behind the facade. As I'm sure you know if you work in Qatar you have to hand over your passport and you are not permitted to leave without obtaining an exit visa.

    I love their airline though!

    I’m not in London. Where are you based?

    You are correct about Qatar though, a horrible place with a great airline.
    And a great race track.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    edited March 2022
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Time will tell in both cases. IANAE (and I bet neither are you), but these sanctions against Russia seem tough - much tougher than I expected. To beat them, Russia needs to make many large friends - India or China being examples. But even if it does that, it is placing itself as a *smaller* power than them, and its reputation is shot.

    And if it does not beat the sanctions, then it will be hurting.
    I really worry about this. I fear that Russia has a lot of (economic) support in other places: Africa as well as with India, the Middle East and China of course.

    The net result may be, almost certainly will be, a short and medium term downturn but in the long term? I'm not so sure.

    It's a real pity that some on the right on here can't debate stuff like this. They are so blinkered in their hatred of anything that suggests Russia isn't faring as badly as we all may wish that they just pile-on against any alternate view. They are in their own echo chamber.

    My big worry long term is that Russia comes out of this with massively new forged links with China, SE Asia, India and the Middle East. And that would be a pretty disturbing geopolitical block.

    There was a good piece in the Telegraph the other day:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
    Forgive me saying this if it offends, but you seem to think of Russia as a 'Left" country. It isn't any more. To this observer anyway it seems more like a more lawless 18th C. UK, with a few ruthless people getting to the top of the ladder while stamping hard on the fingers of those below.
    Comparable, I suggest to the 'enclosures', which helped to create the dispossessed industrial working class of the 19thC which so upset and inspired Messrs Engels and Marx.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    Why don’t you bore off across the Polish border then and do the rest of us a favour
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    On another note, people have often mentioned the unreliability of Ukraine's figures for the damage they have inflicted on Russia. And for good reason - it is in their interests to publicise high figures.

    The open-source website has 1,349 losses.
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    The Ukrainians are claiming about 2,000 losses.
    https://www.minusrus.com/en/

    Now, these aren't totally analogous in what they count, but they do seem nearer than I expected - especially as the open-source effort will certainly not be catching everything.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    Saudi and UAE have a long history of despotism and export of terrorist ideologies.

    To give up the Oligarchs rubles to grasp as the blood soaked arabian petro-dollars may be realpolitik, but it is aligning with evil.

    It also hardly needs saying that we're on the side of the terrorists against the legitimate Government in Syria. Or should that be called a 'regime' because we don't like him? And would that make the terrorists 'freedom fighters' despite them being cannibalistic islamist nut jobs? It's all so confusing.
    How would you describe our government if it were to raze Manchester to the ground and drive a quarter of our population overseas ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    No.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?

    Yes, I think that you are.
    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1503982627522494465/photo/1

    UK military assessment is that the Russian advance has stalled. I have been pointing this out for 4-5 days now. Almost no progress at all. But even sitting still is a serious logistical drain on them and the Ukrainians are attacking stationary targets. The Russians cannot get their artillary within range of Kyiv. They are having to rely upon missiles to hit it and they seem to have a limited supply.

    Also reports on BBC that Russia is becoming more "realistic" in the peace talks, according to Ukraine.

    It is starting to look as if this military impasse might favour Ukraine who continue to get lots of hi tec from western sources. About 3-4 days ago I forecast counterattacks by Ukraine within the week relying upon Russia's logistical problems to even the fight. I still believe that will happen imminentely.
    The big question about Ukraine is how many reserves they have?

    A large swathe of western Ukraine has essentially been untouched by the conflict, and that gives Ukraine room to store lots of men and material - potentially, and give troops time off the front line. It certainly gives them room to train more recruits and build up reserves - *if* they can.

    If Ukraine have virtually no reserves, then they're going to find it incredibly hard. If they've got a fair few fresh people and kit (especially if they're experienced), then they could cause Russia a fair amount of trouble.

    'Reserves' is a word often used about Russia. It is not often said about Ukraine. Do they not have any? If they do, it might not be in their interests to broadcast it. If they do not, then it is certainly not in their interests to broadcast it ...
    From what I have read most of their young generation have done National service and are signing up to fight. I suspect that the reason that they are not already on the battlefield is more to do with available equipment than numbers. The NWALs and the like get the headlines but they need rifles, body armour, radios, grenades and ideally some heavier kit such as armoured vehicles to effectively deploy. You need a lot less of this in defence, which is why they have focused on that and raids by the professional soldiers.

    This is why the scale of US support in particular is critical and why the Russians are now threatening to target those supplying it, risking US casuaties. If the Germans now fully join in too Ukraine's deployable forces will increase considerably. If they do the tide in this war will turn.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,818
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.
    Pretty much, yes. The reason that Qatar got shut out of the GCC a few years ago, was because they were shoveling cash into Iran to fight the war. All the Sunni are on one side, and all the Shia on the other.

    The specific reason for the discussions now, is that the Houthis have started lobbing missiles into Saudi and UAE, who are wanting to get their hands on upgraded Western defence kit, specifically the US/Israeli “Iron Dome” system.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    Saudi and UAE have a long history of despotism and export of terrorist ideologies.

    To give up the Oligarchs rubles to grasp as the blood soaked arabian petro-dollars may be realpolitik, but it is aligning with evil.

    It also hardly needs saying that we're on the side of the terrorists against the legitimate Government in Syria. Or should that be called a 'regime' because we don't like him? And would that make the terrorists 'freedom fighters' despite them being cannibalistic islamist nut jobs? It's all so confusing.
    How would you describe our government if it were to raze Manchester to the ground and drive a quarter of our population overseas ?
    The responses on here would be:

    What about Corbyn?
    39% of the party support the policy and only 37% are against so the government must obey the wishes of the party
    What about the terrible EU?
    I blame the woke for making us raze Manchester
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    No.
    Especially not in an "all out nuclear war"
    who's going to have "freedom" after that? the Ukrainian cockroaches?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    Why don’t you bore off across the Polish border then and do the rest of us a favour
    Do you really want to be left in your echo chamber? Serious question actually. You pile on me and accuse me of being a troll: because I use a VPN to protect someone close in the heart of Westminster and, more significantly, because I don't tow your right wing line.

    This is a political betting forum and it should have representative views from right and left. Get over it and grow up.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited March 2022
    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    No.
    Especially not in an "all out nuclear war"
    who's going to have "freedom" after that? the Ukrainian cockroaches?
    There will always be some survivors from a nuclear war.

    We need to have courage and stand up for the people of Ukraine against this ogre in the Kremlin ... militarily.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    Why don’t you bore off across the Polish border then and do the rest of us a favour
    Do you really want to be left in your echo chamber? Serious question actually. You pile on me and accuse me of being a troll: because I use a VPN to protect someone close in the heart of Westminster and, more significantly, because I don't tow your right wing line.

    This is a political betting forum and it should have representative views from right and left. Get over it and grow up.
    probably more to do with provocative comments like

    "I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?"

    than however you say you connect to the internet
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    Why don’t you bore off across the Polish border then and do the rest of us a favour
    Do you really want to be left in your echo chamber? Serious question actually. You pile on me and accuse me of being a troll: because I use a VPN to protect someone close in the heart of Westminster and, more significantly, because I don't tow your right wing line.

    This is a political betting forum and it should have representative views from right and left. Get over it and grow up.
    probably more to do with provocative comments like

    "I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?"

    So repeating the President of Ukraine's request, Zelensky's request, to install a No Fly Zone is 'provocative'?

    Wow the cowardice on the right is staggering.

    I believe Maggie would have stood up to Putin and would have persuaded that wet drip in the White House to install a NFZ.

    But then, she had far more courage than the entire male cabinet around her.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Meanwhile back in UK domestic politics, the energy direct debits are starting to go up. Ours more than doubled.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    first correct assessment i've heard out of these folks in months https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1503995783883935747
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Heathener said:

    Big G, the point is that the idea that I'm a Putin troll when I'm the only one on here who thinks we should fight the bastard is an absolute joke. A sick one.

    Where are those freedom-loving right wingers when it really matters? You are nowhere. You wring your hands and congratulate yourselves that your sanctions and supplies of missiles are doing the job whilst all the while an entire country is getting pulverised.

    I had respect for some of you but you have shown yourselves to be cowards. You aren't prepared to put your lives at risk to save others. It doesn't matter whether they belong to NATO or the EU or EFTA. They belong to the human race.


    "First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.

    Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.

    Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.

    Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."

    There was someone left to speak for you but you attacked them in the supermarket for not wearing a mask next to you and they just thought you were a coward about covid and decided to leave you to your fate.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?

    Yes, I think that you are.
    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1503982627522494465/photo/1

    UK military assessment is that the Russian advance has stalled. I have been pointing this out for 4-5 days now. Almost no progress at all. But even sitting still is a serious logistical drain on them and the Ukrainians are attacking stationary targets. The Russians cannot get their artillary within range of Kyiv. They are having to rely upon missiles to hit it and they seem to have a limited supply.

    Also reports on BBC that Russia is becoming more "realistic" in the peace talks, according to Ukraine.

    It is starting to look as if this military impasse might favour Ukraine who continue to get lots of hi tec from western sources. About 3-4 days ago I forecast counterattacks by Ukraine within the week relying upon Russia's logistical problems to even the fight. I still believe that will happen imminentely.
    The big question about Ukraine is how many reserves they have?

    A large swathe of western Ukraine has essentially been untouched by the conflict, and that gives Ukraine room to store lots of men and material - potentially, and give troops time off the front line. It certainly gives them room to train more recruits and build up reserves - *if* they can.

    If Ukraine have virtually no reserves, then they're going to find it incredibly hard. If they've got a fair few fresh people and kit (especially if they're experienced), then they could cause Russia a fair amount of trouble.

    'Reserves' is a word often used about Russia. It is not often said about Ukraine. Do they not have any? If they do, it might not be in their interests to broadcast it. If they do not, then it is certainly not in their interests to broadcast it ...
    From what I have read most of their young generation have done National service and are signing up to fight. I suspect that the reason that they are not already on the battlefield is more to do with available equipment than numbers. The NWALs and the like get the headlines but they need rifles, body armour, radios, grenades and ideally some heavier kit such as armoured vehicles to effectively deploy. You need a lot less of this in defence, which is why they have focused on that and raids by the professional soldiers.

    This is why the scale of US support in particular is critical and why the Russians are now threatening to target those supplying it, risking US casuaties. If the Germans now fully join in too Ukraine's deployable forces will increase considerably. If they do the tide in this war will turn.
    We forget, I think, that in early 1942 or so the Soviet Army was losing. They were enabled to win by aid from the West, and by the fact that the Nazi's were treating Slavs as sub-human slaves, so that Stalin was able to 'sell' resistance as the Great Patriotic War.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    I would like to have Sandpit's comments whilst he has re-settled in London. In many parts of the Middle East one is always looking over one's shoulder ...

    I ran into a lot of trouble in Qatar which I won't go into here but suffice to say that I saw the really nasty side behind the facade. As I'm sure you know if you work in Qatar you have to hand over your passport and you are not permitted to leave without obtaining an exit visa.

    I love their airline though!

    I’m not in London. Where are you based?

    You are correct about Qatar though, a horrible place with a great airline.
    And a great race track.
    Indeed.

    And now some great football stadiums ... built on the backs of Indian migrant workers in appalling slave-labour conditions.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Heathener said:

    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    Why don’t you bore off across the Polish border then and do the rest of us a favour
    Do you really want to be left in your echo chamber? Serious question actually. You pile on me and accuse me of being a troll: because I use a VPN to protect someone close in the heart of Westminster and, more significantly, because I don't tow your right wing line.

    This is a political betting forum and it should have representative views from right and left. Get over it and grow up.
    probably more to do with provocative comments like

    "I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?"

    So repeating the President of Ukraine's request, Zelensky's request, to install a No Fly Zone is 'provocative'?

    Wow the cowardice on the right is staggering.

    I believe Maggie would have stood up to Putin and would have persuaded that wet drip in the White House to install a NFZ.

    But then, she had far more courage than the entire male cabinet around her.
    fan of Thatcher calling me rightwing! shouldn't feed the troll I suppose
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Jonathan said:

    Meanwhile back in UK domestic politics, the energy direct debits are starting to go up. Ours more than doubled.

    That’s what happens when governments try to interfere in markets.

    When an external shock or two disrupts the free-market value of something, the government gets the blame.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    I’m glad you are nowhere near any kind of power then. You would have a duty to your fellow man and women not to risk all out nuclear war. We have contributed massively to helping Ukraine. We will help when the time to rebuild a free Ukraine comes, probably not that far off. Russia cannot occupy Ukraine. Once the peace agreement is done, they will leave.
    In your version of events we’d be fighting an all out war across Europe, with the very real chance of nuclear strikes. The horror to millions across Europe would be incalculable. The costs to rebuild would cripple Europe for decades.

    And please stop saying we have done nothing militarily to help Ukraine. You are just lying when you do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    Heathener said:

    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    Why don’t you bore off across the Polish border then and do the rest of us a favour
    Do you really want to be left in your echo chamber? Serious question actually. You pile on me and accuse me of being a troll: because I use a VPN to protect someone close in the heart of Westminster and, more significantly, because I don't tow your right wing line.

    This is a political betting forum and it should have representative views from right and left. Get over it and grow up.
    probably more to do with provocative comments like

    "I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?"

    So repeating the President of Ukraine's request, Zelensky's request, to install a No Fly Zone is 'provocative'?

    Wow the cowardice on the right is staggering.

    I believe Maggie would have stood up to Putin and would have persuaded that wet drip in the White House to install a NFZ.

    But then, she had far more courage than the entire male cabinet around her.
    Are you genuinely confused, or being purposefully irrational ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    We made a mistake withdrawing western brands from Russia. We should have put the prices up, raising money from Russian consumers for the Ukrainian reconstruction. We might have gone so far as to label them. Let Putin ban them if he wants.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    I’m glad you are nowhere near any kind of power then. You would have a duty to your fellow man and women not to risk all out nuclear war. We have contributed massively to helping Ukraine. We will help when the time to rebuild a free Ukraine comes, probably not that far off. Russia cannot occupy Ukraine. Once the peace agreement is done, they will leave.
    In your version of events we’d be fighting an all out war across Europe, with the very real chance of nuclear strikes. The horror to millions across Europe would be incalculable. The costs to rebuild would cripple Europe for decades.

    And please stop saying we have done nothing militarily to help Ukraine. You are just lying when you do.
    Heathener being so very close to the heart of Westminster probably has access to a nuclear bunker, so they aren't risking their own life, just everyone else's the coward
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,241

    On another note, people have often mentioned the unreliability of Ukraine's figures for the damage they have inflicted on Russia. And for good reason - it is in their interests to publicise high figures.

    The open-source website has 1,349 losses.
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    The Ukrainians are claiming about 2,000 losses.
    https://www.minusrus.com/en/

    Now, these aren't totally analogous in what they count, but they do seem nearer than I expected - especially as the open-source effort will certainly not be catching everything.

    Actually if tanks are a subset of ACVs they are very close.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    Our two refugees have been told they will have a visa interview within 10 days and a decision within 12 weeks. Well done, Gove. 👓🍆💦
    Bloody hell.

    Can't you just nick a plane and smuggle them over?
    I reckon I could get them into the UK through a midnight run on the back roads of Leitrim and Fermanagh under the doleful gaze of so many of my ancestors' ghosts. But then what? I've got two undocumented and illegal minors in my house. If they are going to have any sort of life then their status has to be regularised.

    Mrs DA has gone to the Netherlands and moved into an apartment with them so at least they are safe and looked after for now. Very few people have the resources to be able to do that so the system is failing a lot of people who desperately need help.
    I am full of admiration for your efforts and it is incredibly frustrating how slow we are being. But the Home Office is built on the premise that they want to make asylum as hard and slow as possible and are clearly struggling to change their ways.

    My daughter is organising a pick up from a Ukrainian charity of medical and sanitary supplies on Friday. She has received a fair bit of money and is going to be doing a megashop tomorrow, using the money she has been given. People are desperate to help as you and your wife have vividly demonstrated and the government remains behind the curve on this.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Jonathan said:

    We made a mistake withdrawing western brands from Russia. We should have put the prices up, raising money from Russian consumers for the Ukrainian reconstruction. We might have gone so far as to label them. Let Putin ban them if he wants.

    Lol - I like the idea of re-labeling them. Coca-No-war!

    Re Ukrainian reconstruction, why not just use the frozen Russian oligarch and state assets?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Rob Rinder: When people come off the trains from Ukraine.. there are national desks with flags, France,Italy, Germany & even Japan.. we couldn't find a British desk.. & the nearest office is 2hours away or you go to Krakow & fill out a form.. the red tape needs to be cut

    #GMB https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1503656726670856196/video/1
  • Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    We should be declaring a No Fly Zone even if that does risk all out nuclear war.

    The Right, well represented on here, are cowards. Yes that's you.
    Two basic problems:
    1. You repeatedly state that the west and the UK have done nothing to aid Ukraine. This is wrong. Untrue. Demonstrably bollocks. That you keep repeating it gives you little to no credibility on the subject
    2. Not wanting WWIII is "cowardice", therefore wanting to provoke it is bravery. Which means Putin is demonstrating Bravery. Not sure that's what you mean, see point 1.

    There is a case to be made for NATO stepping up and doing more. If this escalates we may have to. But holding off escalating the war is not "cowardice". More bollocks - laughable, pitiful bollocks this time - in addition to your "we haven't helped Ukraine bollocks.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    I’m glad you are nowhere near any kind of power then. You would have a duty to your fellow man and women not to risk all out nuclear war. We have contributed massively to helping Ukraine. We will help when the time to rebuild a free Ukraine comes, probably not that far off. Russia cannot occupy Ukraine. Once the peace agreement is done, they will leave.
    In your version of events we’d be fighting an all out war across Europe, with the very real chance of nuclear strikes. The horror to millions across Europe would be incalculable. The costs to rebuild would cripple Europe for decades.

    And please stop saying we have done nothing militarily to help Ukraine. You are just lying when you do.
    Heathener being so very close to the heart of Westminster probably has access to a nuclear bunker, so they aren't risking their own life, just everyone else's the coward
    I don’t believe anything he/she/it says. I’m reminded of sad middle aged men who like to say ‘they spend a lot of time round Hereford, if you know what I mean’.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    Our two refugees have been told they will have a visa interview within 10 days and a decision within 12 weeks. Well done, Gove. 👓🍆💦
    Bloody hell.

    Can't you just nick a plane and smuggle them over?
    I reckon I could get them into the UK through a midnight run on the back roads of Leitrim and Fermanagh under the doleful gaze of so many of my ancestors' ghosts. But then what? I've got two undocumented and illegal minors in my house. If they are going to have any sort of life then their status has to be regularised.

    Mrs DA has gone to the Netherlands and moved into an apartment with them so at least they are safe and looked after for now. Very few people have the resources to be able to do that so the system is failing a lot of people who desperately need help.
    I am full of admiration for your efforts and it is incredibly frustrating how slow we are being. But the Home Office is built on the premise that they want to make asylum as hard and slow as possible and are clearly struggling to change their ways.

    My daughter is organising a pick up from a Ukrainian charity of medical and sanitary supplies on Friday. She has received a fair bit of money and is going to be doing a megashop tomorrow, using the money she has been given. People are desperate to help as you and your wife have vividly demonstrated and the government remains behind the curve on this.
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    Our two refugees have been told they will have a visa interview within 10 days and a decision within 12 weeks. Well done, Gove. 👓🍆💦
    Bloody hell.

    Can't you just nick a plane and smuggle them over?
    I reckon I could get them into the UK through a midnight run on the back roads of Leitrim and Fermanagh under the doleful gaze of so many of my ancestors' ghosts. But then what? I've got two undocumented and illegal minors in my house. If they are going to have any sort of life then their status has to be regularised.

    Mrs DA has gone to the Netherlands and moved into an apartment with them so at least they are safe and looked after for now. Very few people have the resources to be able to do that so the system is failing a lot of people who desperately need help.
    I am full of admiration for your efforts and it is incredibly frustrating how slow we are being. But the Home Office is built on the premise that they want to make asylum as hard and slow as possible and are clearly struggling to change their ways.

    My daughter is organising a pick up from a Ukrainian charity of medical and sanitary supplies on Friday. She has received a fair bit of money and is going to be doing a megashop tomorrow, using the money she has been given. People are desperate to help as you and your wife have vividly demonstrated and the government remains behind the curve on this.
    Is it just the Home Office though?
    Surely the UK government has just made a calculation of how many extra school places and doctors appointments they would have to provide for perhaps hundreds of thousands of people and they want other countries to deal with it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Jonathan said:

    We made a mistake withdrawing western brands from Russia. We should have put the prices up, raising money from Russian consumers for the Ukrainian reconstruction. We might have gone so far as to label them. Let Putin ban them if he wants.

    Nice idea but in a state without any free media the withdrawal of western products is more likely to stir discontent. We may not have a no fly zone but Russia is suffering a no fries zone courtesy of MacDonalds. It is hard to hide things like that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Interesting piece https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60756993


    So what will make President Putin come out of this disastrous war looking good in the eyes of Russia's majority? Firstly, an assurance, perhaps even to be written into Ukraine's constitution, that it has no intention of joining Nato in the foreseeable future. President Zelensky has already prepared the way for this, by asking Nato for something it couldn't agree to (establishing a no-fly-zone over Ukraine), then criticising the alliance for letting him down on this, and finally musing out loud that he wasn't sure that if Nato behaved like this, it was actually worth joining. As clever and wise political positioning goes, it doesn't get much better than this. Nato gets the blame, which it can easily cope with, and Ukraine gets the freedom to act as it wants.


    Incidentally, posting from a compromised PC isn't a VPN and is a security risk for the person doing it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Damn new thread!

    PM is to visit UAE and Saudi Arabia today.

    This is how his visit is being reported locally. Second headline in the paper, after Ukraine.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/15/boris-johnson-visits-gulf-to-restore-security-and-increase-energy-supplies/

    To summarise, he will be asking for increased oil production, and will be asked for help with increased security in the Gulf region. UK is increasingly a key broker in the region, after a cooling in their relationship with the US in the past decade under Obama and Trump.

    Will help with increased security mean more of this?

    "'Double tap' attacks in Yemen's civil war"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-60742504
    Yes, the UAE and Saudi are trying to get rid of the Irani and Qatari-backed terrorists who took control of Yemen in 2014.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 —How the war in Yemen started.

    For some reason, many Western leftists see the Saudis as the aggressors here, rather than the defenders of the legitimate Yemeni government.

    I could go on about this all day, but the long and short of the war in Yemen, is that it’s simply the latest incarnation of the centuries-old battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
    If I understand correctly - which I may not - it’s essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saud, with the Yemeni people caught in the middle.

    That is somewhat different from the situation in Ukraine, which is a war of conquest launched by a man who has clearly lost his marbles.

    Although I can imagine for those actually living there it’s a distinction without a difference.

    The war in Ukraine is clearly very different, with Russia simply rolling tanks over the border because Putin felt like it.
    The Right will continue to tell themselves things like this but the fact is that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia are involved in very murky dealings.

    As I assume you know, Qatar's strong association with the Wahabi sect of Islam is a source of considerable irritation and fury in other parts of the Middle East, hence why Saudi boycotted Qatar and why Qatar airways were blockaded from flying over the UAE.

    The geopolitics of the region is dark with many complex strands and multiple human rights abuses.

    We will be doing business with more evil. Classic tories.
    Diddums that the West is diversifying its hydrocarbon supplies away from your dear leader
    If by 'my dear leader' you mean Putin, unlike you I believe we should stand up militarily to Putin.

    You are a coward.

    We’ve been through this. The wide ranging sanctions and military relief to Ukraine are working.
    Are they though? Really?

    I see a country getting pulverised and slowly, inexorably, Russian forces creep forward. I don't think Putin will particularly care if this takes 3 months if in the process Ukraine is reduced to rubble.

    We tell ourselves that our actions are working because we need to tell ourselves it. We can't stand the idea that Putin has got away with this. But he has, hasn't he?

    If we had courage we would stand up to him and do what Zelensky asked: install a No Fly Zone. Yes it might risk all out nuclear war.

    So what?

    I'm prepared to die for Ukraine and freedom. Aren't you?
    I’m glad you are nowhere near any kind of power then. You would have a duty to your fellow man and women not to risk all out nuclear war. We have contributed massively to helping Ukraine. We will help when the time to rebuild a free Ukraine comes, probably not that far off. Russia cannot occupy Ukraine. Once the peace agreement is done, they will leave.
    In your version of events we’d be fighting an all out war across Europe, with the very real chance of nuclear strikes. The horror to millions across Europe would be incalculable. The costs to rebuild would cripple Europe for decades.

    And please stop saying we have done nothing militarily to help Ukraine. You are just lying when you do.
    Heathener being so very close to the heart of Westminster probably has access to a nuclear bunker, so they aren't risking their own life, just everyone else's the coward
    I don’t believe anything he/she/it says. I’m reminded of sad middle aged men who like to say ‘they spend a lot of time round Hereford, if you know what I mean’.
    probably going to regret this, but what's in Hereford?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Jonathan said:

    Meanwhile back in UK domestic politics, the energy direct debits are starting to go up. Ours more than doubled.


    130% increase on our electricity D/D.

    Fortunately we can afford it; I am about to spend today at Citizens Advice trying to help people who have no chance of affording such an increase.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Do I take it from the lack of commentry that people have reassessed their optimism about Ukraine?

    Obviously I hate to be pessimistic but it looks to me like the Russians are slowly (and clumsily) pounding the country to obliteration whilst arranging for a 'peace' deal that humiliates Ukraine. No NATO. 'Neutralisation'. Loss of parts of the country that have already been invaded by Russia. It is 'finlandisation', but by force and not by consent and mutual respect.

    I can't see such an arrangement working out well - not least because many people in Ukraine won't be happy about it. There is the small matter of the 2000 or so Azov fascists, who we have inadvertantly armed, who are likely to turn against the Ukranian government. So the destablisation of Ukraine will continue apace.

    Zelensky and co effectively have no choice other than to agree to whatever they are being presented with. Putin can just move his troops up to the border with, Georgia, Finland or whoever is next on his list. The west can go back to its comfortable decadence and denial.

    Am I wrong?


    Ukraine might well be screwed. But so is Russia.
    Is it?

    Morally, yes. But is it really screwed or do we just tell ourselves this to make ourselves feel better because we sat on our hands and failed to come to Ukraine's military aid?
    Yet again utter nonsense

    The UK has been arming Ukraine and training them for years and our arms are being used by a very grateful Ukraine

    Indeed their President and Boris are in near daily contact with each other and the goodwill the UK has with Ukrainians is well documented

    Until it comes to sheltering refugees!
    Our two refugees have been told they will have a visa interview within 10 days and a decision within 12 weeks. Well done, Gove. 👓🍆💦
    Our absolute shame is how we are treating refugees. Despite all the u-turns and Govey's coked-up ranting in the Commons, the policy remains fear of the forrin scourge, we can't let in women and children cos they might be terrorists AND take all the jobs AND take all the houses AND steal benefits etc etc etc.

    The way this amoral government treats these poor people demonstrates just how bad they are.
This discussion has been closed.