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The French election round two – latest polling – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    mwadams said:

    We have an HMS Secretly now? And the ship is capable of resurrecting people? BRITISH TECH FTW.
    Don't tell 'im about HMS Incomparable
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    ping said:

    Thanks @malcolmg

    Would be great to hear @stodge & @MoonRabbit ‘s opinions, too.

    Good luck to all the Cheltenham punters, today!

    They are usually around later with their nags
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    HYUFD said:

    Nuclear weapons are there as a last resort to defend the UK and British territory if conventional forces have been unable to.

    Otherwise there is no point having them. If you are too much of a wet lettuce to realise that that is your problem
    Both, then.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    HYUFD said:

    We had 4 aircraft carriers, Hermes, Invincible, Ark Royal and Illustrious
    You twit. You are counting a ship that arrived after the war and one that wasn't operational. We had 2. Cut and dry, the ones we sent.

    You also failed to address any other points and the fact that you have moved the goal posts when claiming the war was easy. An utterly disgraceful and inaccurate comment which is all I referred to. It wasn't and the people involved were very brave. We lost a lot of brave men and ship and in a controlled action. We made no attempt to overthrow Argentina directly, only to reclaim the Falklands.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274

    I don't get the "it was easy" line. The exclusion zone was not easy. Black Buck and its successors were not easy. And had it been a little later and we had scrapped the V-bombers and sold Invincible as the idiotic Nott / Thatcher plan had it, what then?

    Lets not forget - the Nott / Thatcher defence review was the thing that opened the door to Galtieri in the first place...
    I must get my copy of Spycatcher out if this is going to continue, but seem to recall that two MP's, Bernard Braine (Con) and Peter Shore (Lab) uncovered the 'back door' negotiations over some form of joint sovereignty which had been going on in 1980/1.
  • Lots of stories of Russian troops looting. No reason that mobile phones wouldn't be on their list....
    These guys aren't sobbing to mummy, they're boasting to their girlfriends.

    Ukraine / Україна
    @Ukraine
    These are real intercepted calls: Russian soldiers in Ukraine call their close ones back in Russia to tell how it is going so far. Looting and war crimes included. Please, share! The world must know the truth of what they’re doing to our homes and people.
    https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1501635351965798402

    In the replies there's this..

    🇺🇦 The Monarch Diaries
    @monarchdiaries

    I listened to it with a native Russian speaker, and the idiom is relaxed and pretty specifically Russian. The big thing that struck him was the whole "we won the lottery just being alive, so let's goooooo!" vibe.

    What freaked him out most the gf's "fck them" thing

    FWIW he thinks it’s a real call but unlikely the soldiers actually executed the civilians. Rather, they’re acting all gangsta for their girlfriends.

    This kind of posing is a HUGE thing among young Russian guys right now, esp “lower class” who end up in armed forces a lot.

    Any other Russians in Russia with perspective on the scene for 18-25 year old guys, love to hear it.

    https://twitter.com/monarchdiaries/status/1502131243915304984
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2022

    The Windrush immigrants weren't here illegally, were they?
    I don’t think the Home office cared(s) about peoples legal status. It was just a “kick the fuckers out if at all possible” approach.

    Cf;

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/british-man-who-never-even-12465021.amp

    What I suspect happened was at some point he filled in an online form and accidentally selected “Uganda” from the dropdown “nationality” field, which put him in the HO’s dragnet.

    Completely fucking outrageous.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    Am I alone in thinking that re-living the Falklands War is a bit pointless under current circumstances?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716

    Am I alone in thinking that re-living the Falklands War is a bit pointless under current circumstances?

    Nope.
  • kjh said:

    The key thing, as normal, is @hyufd had changed the goal posts. His original claim was that retaking the Falklands was a piece of cake. When challenged on that he moves the goal posts to suggest that because we point out he is wrong we are whimps. On the contrary whimps only take on fights they know they can win. The brave take on fights they might lose. I find @HYUFD comments on the Falklands insulting to those involved.

    And where he got 4 aircraft carriers from just shows his ignorance.

    Also he seems unaware of the restraint to limit the war to the Falklands in particular not to sink ships outside of the exclusion zone, hence the debate over the Belgrano.

    Like most here, but unlike @HYUFD we lived through it and knew people who fought in it. @HYUFD comments are an insult to those brave people.
    I try and stick to the principle that 'if you've got nowt nice to say, don't say owt', so I will keep my views on HYUFD's opinions and analytical skills to myself other than saying I'm surprised he professes to (I think) have a degree in History (which I do too, incidentally).

    I find it much better for my blood pressure to just skip his comments. Rather like I refrain from pushing pins into my eyeballs.
  • Did he also have the gall to say that Labour ensured there was no money left?

    Liam Byrne - about the only honest Labour politician, so lefties love to just pretend everything he said never happened or was a joke.
    Not that there was actually no money left. Nor were we facing bankruptcy Greek-style. But that didn't stop (a) the Tories making the claim and (b) people with more intelligence as to believe the claim deciding to do so for reasons of political expediency.

    Have to laugh though. One "funny" note and boom there goes your career. Same with Maudling.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    kjh said:

    You twit. You are counting a ship that arrived after the war and one that wasn't operational. We had 2. Cut and dry, the ones we sent.

    You also failed to address any other points and the fact that you have moved the goal posts when claiming the war was easy. An utterly disgraceful and inaccurate comment which is all I referred to. It wasn't and the people involved were very brave. We lost a lot of brave men and ship and in a controlled action. We made no attempt to overthrow Argentina directly, only to reclaim the Falklands.
    I haven't been following this discussion but did he say that the Falklands was easily won????

    Those are the sort of comments which seriously undermine just about everything he says. On anything.

    Like having a good discussion on the rights and wrongs of pesticides and the person saying well Xanthe, Angel of the Fields doesn't like them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    kjh said:

    You twit. You are counting a ship that arrived after the war and one that wasn't operational. We had 2. Cut and dry, the ones we sent.

    You also failed to address any other points and the fact that you have moved the goal posts when claiming the war was easy. An utterly disgraceful and inaccurate comment which is all I referred to. It wasn't and the people involved were very brave. We lost a lot of brave men and ship and in a controlled action. We made no attempt to overthrow Argentina directly, only to reclaim the Falklands.
    Illustrious was effectively ready by the end of the War. Ark Royal was also launched in 1981 and could have been commissioned earlier if needed.

    We also had submarines with nuclear missiles as a last resort to defend British territory if conventional forces failed, which fortunately they did not. Argentina, unlike Russia or China, did not have nuclear weapons
  • HYUFD said:

    I am not going to be a wet lettuce no. Thatcher would correctly have done whatever it took to retake British territory no matter what the cost, as would I had I been PM.

    War is horrific no doubt with many sacrifices but it was a just war to defend British territory and a people who wished to stay British after Argentine invasion
    And you claim to be a Christian.

    How bizarre
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Nuclear weapons are there as a last resort to defend the UK and British territory if conventional forces have been unable to.

    Otherwise there is no point having them. If you are too much of a wet lettuce to realise that that is your problem
    All getting very macho on here.

    You are just wrong, and demonstrably so. Imagine the situation where we had no nuclear weapons but everyone thought we did. On your view, we would be defenceless. To anyone who understands how deterrence actually works, we are just as well off as if we had them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609
    HYUFD said:

    It also had the Illustrious which was ready had the war continued (though we won it anyway with 2 aircraft carriers) and the Ark Royal could have joined soon too
    The bit you got right was we won. After that you are rewriting history through the prism of a Murdoch newspaper.

    By suggesting the very tight victory was a cake walk you disrespect the brave military personnel who gave their lives to recover the Falkland Islands.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    Anyway that first Bloody Mary isn't going to drink itself so good day all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited March 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    All getting very macho on here.

    You are just wrong, and demonstrably so. Imagine the situation where we had no nuclear weapons but everyone thought we did. On your view, we would be defenceless. To anyone who understands how deterrence actually works, we are just as well off as if we had them.
    Hence we must always have nuclear weapons as our defence of last resort and test them from time to time to prove we have them
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,932

    At the risk of appearing to trivialise what is clearly a serious matter, surely the collective brains of PB could come up with the answer?

    "They" feels wrong but maybe it will stick in time... "I asked my friend, they is quite happy to adopt this pronoun"?

    Alternatively, how about some other variant of he/she? Xe? Ze? Se?

    Something needs to become the norm, and I expect it will in time.
    Call me old fashioned, but we already have singular, gender-neutral pronouns: he and him. The fact that the same words happen to be used as the masculine pronouns is just a quirk of linguistic history.
  • Of all the lame 'woke' stuff people whinge about here, people getting called 'they' as a pronoun is the lamest of them all.

    'They' is a perfectly acceptable singular person pronoun to use and it has been for centuries already, it is not just a plural pronoun, in the same way as 'you' is both a singular and plural pronoun.

    They gets used as a singular person pronoun all the time in everyday life already, it is not some made up word.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited March 2022

    And you claim to be a Christian.

    How bizarre
    Read the Old Testament, God was quite prepared to drown the Egyptian army to defend the Jews if needed
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    Newsflash from Sky. Our two 'hostages' in Iran are on their way to the airport, apparently.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    edited March 2022

    Call me old fashioned, but we already have singular, gender-neutral pronouns: he and him. The fact that the same words happen to be used as the masculine pronouns is just a quirk of linguistic history.
    You're old-fashioned. He and him are not gender neutral, obviously.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609
    Hats off to Bozza, Nazanin is coming home!
  • HYUFD said:

    Illustrious was effectively ready by the end of the War. Ark Royal was also launched in 1981 and could have been commissioned earlier if needed.

    We also had submarines with nuclear missiles as a last resort to defend British territory if conventional forces failed, which fortunately they did not. Argentina, unlike Russia or China, did not have nuclear weapons
    Nope

    Did the Ark Royal go to the Falklands?

    Today's HMS Ark Royal is a member of the 'Invincible' class of support carriers, together with the Falklands veteran HMS Invincible and HMS Illustrious. Last of the class to be built, HMS Ark Royal's keel was laid at Swan Hunter's yard in 1978. She was launched in June 1981 and entered service in 1985.

    Ark Royal being launched does not include fitting out and sea trails and she came into service in 1985

    Time to admit you haven't a clue
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    An oddity about that report is that Ukraine has broadcast intercepted phone conversations between Russian troops and their families, expressing bewilderment and dismay. If they don't have phones, then the conversations are presumably fake? There's plenty of disinformation out there on both sides, and that's pretty normal in a war, though the Ukrainians are definitely better at marshalling global public opinion.

    What we don't really know and is obscured by claims and counter-claims is what the current near-pause is about. Russia reeling from military setbacks and about to retreat? Building up for a major offensive and about to advance? Pausing to see if the peace talks succeed? It's a good thing whatever it is, while it lasts, but...?
    I think it is just the poster you are replying to speculating about the absence of mobiles. Yes, there are reports of them being banned for Russian troops, butr they are also illegal in UK prisons. Easy things to hide...

    And it isn't the Ukrainians marshalling global public opinion, it's the facts.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274

    Call me old fashioned, but we already have singular, gender-neutral pronouns: he and him. The fact that the same words happen to be used as the masculine pronouns is just a quirk of linguistic history.
    In the Churchillian (I think) sense that 'man' embraces 'woman'?
  • Nigelb said:

    Nazanin is at the airport in Tehran and on her way home.
    https://twitter.com/TulipSiddiq/status/1504037872206241795

    I hope that's true.

    I also hope we've not paid blackmail to let her go free.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nazanin is at the airport in Tehran and on her way home.
    https://twitter.com/TulipSiddiq/status/1504037872206241795

    Fantastic news
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    Just out of interest @hyufd if the Falklands war was such a piece of cake why are you arguing for these 2 additional aircraft carriers and threatening nukes on Argentina?

    And if we had lost an aircraft carrier would that also come under the heading of 'easy'.

    And do you think the sailors of Sheffield, Argent, Atlantic Conveyor or the soldiers at Goose Green thought it easy? To name just a few.

    Your comments are a disgrace, fighting wars from your armchair.
  • HYUFD said:

    Read the Old Testament, God was quite prepared to drown the Egyptian army to defend the Jews if needed
    A Christian lives by the New Testament
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    A *possible* Red Wall by-election in Wakefield coming up - we should all refrain from comment on the case, but the speculation is now in the public domain. Obviously if the MP is acquitted then it won't arise.:

    https://labourlist.org/2022/03/labour-candidates-prepare-for-suspected-by-election-in-wakefield-after-mp-trial/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    HYUFD said:

    Read the Old Testament, God was quite prepared to drown the Egyptian army to defend the Jews if needed
    But then God had a mid-life crisis, met a younger woman, had a kid and mellowed considerably.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Call me old fashioned, but we already have singular, gender-neutral pronouns: he and him. The fact that the same words happen to be used as the masculine pronouns is just a quirk of linguistic history.
    In Devon dialect any animal of either sex is he, or rather 'e.
  • So relieved that Zaghari-Ratcliffe is finally on her way home. What a failure of Government that it took this long.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888

    Hats off to Bozza, Nazanin is coming home!

    Bozza *might* have had something to do with her still being in there. (Although TBF, the Iranians were always using her as political leverage, so they were just waiting for something to get irate about.)
  • A *possible* Red Wall by-election in Wakefield coming up - we should all refrain from comment on the case, but the speculation is now in the public domain. Obviously if the MP is acquitted then it won't arise.:

    https://labourlist.org/2022/03/labour-candidates-prepare-for-suspected-by-election-in-wakefield-after-mp-trial/

    LOL, Labour should walk it
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022


    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko
    ·
    5m
    Now Lavrov is talking about his “hope of a possible compromise” with Ukraine, wow!
    I wonder where is that tough son of a bitch from late February talking about “Ukrainian Nazis” and denying Ukraine as a sovereign nation, wow!

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko

    All that’s changed is the tone. He’s now happily talking about wanting “peace”, when what he means is that he wants a total Ukranian surrender.
  • Why doesn't Ed Balls stand in Wakefield?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    edited March 2022
    Cookie said:

    My understanding is that we once had four words for 'you':
    You/Ye: equivalents of I/me for plural/formal:
    Thou/Thee: equivalents of I/me for singular/informal

    There must have been a time at which using You to mean Ye felt as wrong and clunky as saying 'Me went to the shops'. Using the polite form of you for talking to your friends must also have felt odd, though less clunky.

    Trying to speak using the above structure uses quite a bit of thought, unless you do it a Yorkshire accent, and then it is oddly intuitive.
    Growing up in Lancashire in the 70's "tha" "thi" and "hast" was widely used by the older generations. It still is intuitive to me, as I spent much of my time cared for by my Great Uncle, a retired Leigh pitman, although it was seen as archaic even then.
    It carried connotations of the French "Tu".
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    TOPPING said:

    I haven't been following this discussion but did he say that the Falklands was easily won????

    Those are the sort of comments which seriously undermine just about everything he says. On anything.

    Like having a good discussion on the rights and wrongs of pesticides and the person saying well Xanthe, Angel of the Fields doesn't like them.
    Yes he did.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716

    LOL, Labour should walk it
    Ed Balls.
  • Why doesn't Ed Balls stand in Wakefield?

    He's got more sense to come back to politics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    A Christian lives by the New Testament
    No, a Christian lives by both the Old Testament and New Testament, they both form part of the Bible.

    A Christian just adds the New Testament too while a Jew only lives by the Old Testament
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716

    So relieved that Zaghari-Ratcliffe is finally on her way home. What a failure of Government that it took this long.

    Top news. At last something good in this benighted world.
  • At the risk of appearing to trivialise what is clearly a serious matter, surely the collective brains of PB could come up with the answer?

    "They" feels wrong but maybe it will stick in time... "I asked my friend, they is quite happy to adopt this pronoun"?

    Alternatively, how about some other variant of he/she? Xe? Ze? Se?

    Something needs to become the norm, and I expect it will in time.
    It sounds wrong because "they is" is wrong, we use "they are" even for third person singular.

    Here's an example sentence: Every individual is unique. They are a combination of strengths and weaknesses.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609
    ...

    Bozza *might* have had something to do with her still being in there. (Although TBF, the Iranians were always using her as political leverage, so they were just waiting for something to get irate about.)
    The PM righting the wrongs of a former FS?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    kjh said:

    Just out of interest @hyufd if the Falklands war was such a piece of cake why are you arguing for these 2 additional aircraft carriers and threatening nukes on Argentina?

    And if we had lost an aircraft carrier would that also come under the heading of 'easy'.

    And do you think the sailors of Sheffield, Argent, Atlantic Conveyor or the soldiers at Goose Green thought it easy? To name just a few.

    Your comments are a disgrace, fighting wars from your armchair.

    I never once said it was a piece of cake.

    I said Thatcher would have done anything to win the war as would I.


  • So relieved that Zaghari-Ratcliffe is finally on her way home. What a failure of Government that it took this long.

    A failure of the Iranian Government I hope you mean?

    I hope you're not blaming the UK Government for foreign nations taking hostages and not having the rule of law?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    What wonderful news out of Iran . Stuart Ratcliffe has shown remarkable resilience and determination but questions need to be asked as to why this legitimate debt wasn’t paid back years ago . Nazanin has been through a nightmare ,we should all be full of joy that she will finally be re-united with her husband and daughter .
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,932

    You're old-fashioned. He and him are not gender neutral, obviously.
    If the context of their use is gender neutral then they're gender neutral. In academia the practice is (or was) to use she or her as the gender-neutral pronouns. If you read an article containing, say, 'A 15th century peasant would have seen her life blighted by plague and war.' then you wouldn't think the writer is speaking specifically about women. Context governs the meaning.
  • A *possible* Red Wall by-election in Wakefield coming up - we should all refrain from comment on the case, but the speculation is now in the public domain. Obviously if the MP is acquitted then it won't arise.:

    https://labourlist.org/2022/03/labour-candidates-prepare-for-suspected-by-election-in-wakefield-after-mp-trial/

    Ooooh that's interesting. I knew a previously lifelong Labour voter who voted for him because she'd contacted the previous MP's office about something and didn't get a response. But last time I spoke to her she regretted going Tory. I wonder if there's a similar disillusionment amongst the wider electorate.

    I certainly hope so.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    edited March 2022
    HYUFD said:

    I never once said it was a piece of cake.

    I said Thatcher would have done anything to win the war as would I.


    Yes you did. You said it was easy. It is that point we all objected to. Nothing else. You then moved the goal posts.

    PS 'we could easily beat them '
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824

    Bozza *might* have had something to do with her still being in there. (Although TBF, the Iranians were always using her as political leverage, so they were just waiting for something to get irate about.)
    I think they were waiting for their tank money tbh.
  • nico679 said:

    What wonderful news out of Iran . Stuart Ratcliffe has shown remarkable resilience and determination but questions need to be asked as to why this legitimate debt wasn’t paid back years ago . Nazanin has been through a nightmare ,we should all be full of joy that she will finally be re-united with her husband and daughter .

    Because the Iranians are very rightly under sanctions.

    Do you think its remotely acceptable for the Iranians to take people hostage in order to get sanctions broken? What a disgusting attitude if so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824

    Why doesn't Ed Balls stand in Wakefield?

    That might be seen as presumptuous.
    Being as how there hasn't even been a trial yet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    HYUFD said:

    I never once said it was a piece of cake.

    I said Thatcher would have done anything to win the war as would I.

    Including the murder of hundreds of thousands of civilians, according to your recent posts.
    You are the same kind of Christian as Putin, apparently.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    HYUFD said:

    No, a Christian lives by both the Old Testament and New Testament, they both form part of the Bible.

    A Christian just adds the New Testament too while a Jew only lives by the Old Testament
    I wonder if in the 25th century Christians will also have the book of HYUFD to guide them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    A failure of the Iranian Government I hope you mean?

    I hope you're not blaming the UK Government for foreign nations taking hostages and not having the rule of law?
    A failure on the part of Boris johnson for being a fat lazy slob.

    Nice bit of jingoism, mind. Are all foreign nations like that?
  • Debts are not blackmail.
    Then pursue the debt through civil means and diplomacy, holding people hostage unless a debt gets paid 100% is blackmail though.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    A failure on the part of Boris johnson for being a fat lazy slob.

    Nice bit of jingoism, mind. Are all foreign nations like that?
    What an odd thing to say. No not all foreign nations take people hostage and don't have the rule of law, only nations that take people hostage and don't have the rule of law meet that description.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Because the Iranians are very rightly under sanctions.

    Do you think its remotely acceptable for the Iranians to take people hostage in order to get sanctions broken? What a disgusting attitude if so.
    Where did I say it was acceptable . I was merely asking what many people would want to know re the debt . This debt goes back years across both Labour and Tory governments .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    I note that these guys have overnight doubled their numbers of photographically confirmed Russian helicopter losses:
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    Which implies the Ukraine official estimates are not quite as overoptimistic as suggested.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    edited March 2022
    Geopolitics really has been stood on its head, hasn't it?

    And domestic too. Here's Tulip Siddiq on Liz Truss.

    "She told Times Radio: 'I've dealt with 3 PMs & 5 FSs, it's finally when I came to woman who was foreign sec who actually did something' "
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    Because the Iranians are very rightly under sanctions.

    Do you think its remotely acceptable for the Iranians to take people hostage in order to get sanctions broken? What a disgusting attitude if so.
    There is clearly movement on both sides towards a wider deal, including the nuclear issue. Is that a bad thing ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    edited March 2022

    It doesn't matter what debt was owed: the Iranian behaviour over this has been hideous.
    Iranian behaviour has been hideous and British sanctimonious (at best).

    Edit. However, let us see her get off the plane at Heathrow before we count all our chickens.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    kjh said:

    Yes you did. You said it was easy. It is that point we all objected to. Nothing else. You then moved the goal posts.

    PS 'we could easily beat them '
    @HYUFD posted:

    'It was not that difficult' and 'we could easily beat them'

    Are you denying that @HYUFD ?

    Those comments are either ignorant or a disgrace to the members of the forces involved.

  • Nigelb said:

    There is clearly movement on both sides towards a wider deal, including the nuclear issue. Is that a bad thing ?
    In general no, its not a bad thing that movement is happening.

    It is a bad thing that Iran has been holding an unrelated person to the dispute hostage and it is a bad thing if the movement is because of the hostage taking. If the movement is eg because of the Russian crisis and Iran deciding to come out of the cold and get its oil flowing etc then that's not a bad thing, but we absolutely should not give in to hostage-taking.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422

    Iranian behaviour has been hideous and British sanctimonious (at best).
    Go on, explain why we've been sanctimonious or worse.
  • dixiedean said:

    Geopolitics really has been stood on its head, hasn't it?

    And domestic too. Here's Tulip Siddiq on Liz Truss.

    "She told Times Radio: 'I've dealt with 3 PMs & 5 FSs, it's finally when I came to woman who was foreign sec who actually did something' "

    It has and I do not think many have realised just by how much
  • It's a bit weird that they're planning their attack on a map written in English..

    Anri Tina
    @Anri__Tina

    У Скабеевой обсуждают план захвата Европы

    Translated from Russian by Google

    Skabeeva is discussing a plan to capture Europe

    https://twitter.com/Anri__Tina/status/1503797246910877697
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    dixiedean said:

    Geopolitics really has been stood on its head, hasn't it?

    And domestic too. Here's Tulip Siddiq on Liz Truss.

    "She told Times Radio: 'I've dealt with 3 PMs & 5 FSs, it's finally when I came to woman who was foreign sec who actually did something' "

    9/11 cemented the peace process in Northern Ireland.
  • I suspect Labour would win Wakefield on current polling - and this will be a good indication that the Red Wall is returning to type.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    .
    boulay said:

    I was thinking about the Russian military in the small hours, as you do, and they are fundamentally screwed for effectiveness by their geography.

    It’s such a huge country that borders so many countries with either unfriendly at best or suspicious feelings towards them.

    So they have to garrison the most vast area to cover from the arctic circle, Finland, the Baltic, Eastern Europe, the Stans, China, pacific east coast (for them).

    So they need huge amounts of men. Soldiers are expensive to train well which drains the budget and expensive to equip. They also require well trained soldiers who know what they are doing to train them.

    So you have a situation where you either haemorrhage cash to train enough top professional soldiers to act as main force as well as able to train up recruits so they aren’t shit, haemorrhage cash to provide the up to date kit, feed and house etc or you save cash and give them crap kit and crap training added to crap conditions.

    The Russian army is therefore demoralised, under trained and under equipped from day one because you need a million men to cover the expanse but can’t afford to properly.

    You can of course train and equip them well but then that strains the other budgets. Russia needs a Baltic/Atlantic fleet, a Black Sea/med fleet and a pacific fleet. Again either expensive or shit. Numbers or ability.

    Then Russia has to pay for upkeep of nuclear Arsenal - we know in the UK how much a slice of the defense budget it effectively takes up.

    They also want super hi tech kit such as supersonic missiles. Not cheap and drains other areas.

    So because of their geography and the fact they spend a fraction in real terms of the US budget they are buggered fundamentally.

    They can’t just focus on the west - would be like having an amazing front door alarm system and locks and leaving the back door off it’s hinges. They also have to make sure the automatic fire sprinklers are working in the Chechnya room and former Georgia rooms. But there’s always the Chinese neighbour looking over the fence at the gnomes in the Russian garden it wouldn’t mind having.

    We shouldn’t be surprised they haven’t shown themselves to be the military behemoth we thought they were and if they were shorn of their nukes tomorrow they would be purely only considered on the world stage as a country that has lots of raw materials and not a lot else.
    Near the start of the invasion someone linked to an article that compared Russia with Prussia - who, after a false start, concentrated on building the best possible land force, rather than trying to have a strong sea force too.

    Russia don't need a strong Navy. Certainly they don't need a large ocean-going navy with aircraft carriers. Having one is pure pretension and waste.

    Also, if they concentrated on their land forces, and in logistics, then they could defend a long frontier with fewer soldiers because they could rely on rapid redeployment to meet any threat. (Although apparently they do have good rail-borne logistics to redeploy and supply within Russia).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355

    Why doesn't Ed Balls stand in Wakefield?

    He's better off out of it, and is a nicer, happier (seeming) person out of it too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    tlg86 said:

    Go on, explain why we've been sanctimonious or worse.
    We withheld monies which we owed, first because we didn't 'approve' of the Iranian government and then because the Americans told us to.
  • Iranian behaviour has been hideous and British sanctimonious (at best).

    Edit. However, let us see her get off the plane at Heathrow before we count all our chickens.
    The aircraft has not taken off yet so keep everything crossed
  • We withheld monies which we owed, first because we didn't 'approve' of the Iranian government and then because the Americans told us to.
    Withholding money because Iran has sanctioned has absolutely nothing to do with Iran taking people hostage though, doesn't it?

    If Iran is taking people hostage, that is blackmail, pure and simple. To equate the two is to justify hostage taking.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,182
    edited March 2022

    It's a bit weird that they're planning their attack on a map written in English..

    Anri Tina
    @Anri__Tina

    У Скабеевой обсуждают план захвата Европы

    Translated from Russian by Google

    Skabeeva is discussing a plan to capture Europe

    https://twitter.com/Anri__Tina/status/1503797246910877697

    Just realised that this is quite an old video. I don't know when it was from, but someone made this video (that I don't understand at all!) about it in January
    https://youtu.be/4btl1nHpQYY?t=120
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    It has and I do not think many have realised just by how much
    Looking like a big thaw in relations with with Iran is on the cards. They will distance from Russia and step up gas and oil exports. A lot of governments and strategists will be assuming the current conflict isn't just Putin miscalculating but logical outcome of Greater Russian nationalism that runs deep. A military defeat in Ukraine might add fuel for the medium term so we are in for cold war II probably.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,269

    So relieved that Zaghari-Ratcliffe is finally on her way home. What a failure of Government that it took this long.

    What wonderful news. So happy for her and her family. We'll done Liz Truss for succeeding where her predecessors failed (or barely tried).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    edited March 2022

    In general no, its not a bad thing that movement is happening.

    It is a bad thing that Iran has been holding an unrelated person to the dispute hostage and it is a bad thing if the movement is because of the hostage taking. If the movement is eg because of the Russian crisis and Iran deciding to come out of the cold and get its oil flowing etc then that's not a bad thing, but we absolutely should not give in to hostage-taking.
    It will never be clear what deal was or wasn't done, as you probably know. And no doubt Boris will deny to his last breath that he gave in to hostage taking.
    But we do know that talks about resumption of the nuclear deal have been going on behind the scenes for some time now.
    I don't think any of us have many illusions about the current Iranian regime, but it is a country with which we probably have more in common than Saudi Arabia. A more stable Gulf which is happier to deal with us diplomatically rather than through threats and acts of violence is something to be pursued and welcomed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    kjh said:

    @HYUFD posted:

    'It was not that difficult' and 'we could easily beat them'

    Are you denying that @HYUFD ?

    Those comments are either ignorant or a disgrace to the members of the forces involved.

    Well compared to defeating China alone over Hong Kong (hence the 1997 handover went ahead) or defeating Russia over Ukraine, then defeating Argentina, which had less effectively trained troops or pilots than ours, a smaller navy and did not have nuclear weapons unlike us was not that difficult yes.

    We could defend the Falklands then and would defend them again today

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    ydoethur said:

    Bloody hell.

    Can't you just nick a plane and smuggle them over?
    As I posted last night, it’s down to us everyday people in each country to keep pressure on our own governments if we feel it isn’t going well enough. If other posters wish to talk up how generous our offer and it’s going well and quick enough, they are at liberty to do so.

    Sure all political parties spin, use good days to bury bad news, give wonderful broad brush news in statements where there devil is in both the detail and wether their walk is as good as the talk. My particular hobby horse is I get cross seeing people posting that UK have sanctioned Roman Abramovich, which we haven’t - the key lesson from how previous sanctions down the years being merely cosmetic is where 1 named person had measures on them, but best buddies or family members had not. If any anyone wishes to post Roman Abramovich has been sanctioned well by UK government, I’ll post back you have been conned. 😕
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    One thing I love about pb.com is that when one poster goes to war against another, the level of savagery is "You twit"......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    Oliver Carroll
    @olliecarroll
    ·
    43m
    Putin’s closest ally in Ukraine Viktor Medvedchuk escaped house arrest and has been on the run since war started 24 February. A special group is looking for him.

    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1504037031743270915
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    46s
    BREAKING:

    The Kremlin has stated that an Austrian/Swedish neutrality model for Ukrainian, preserving their own Army but without foreign military bases, could be seen as a compromise - Interfax.

    That must mean that Russia is fine with EU membership, right?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    edited March 2022
    Does anyone else have friends or fam who think THIS REALLY IS IT?

    I do. They’re literally prepping for the Endtimes. Quite disconcerting. Especially as it’s the 2nd time in 3 years
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,170
    Levelling up is wrong.


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274

    What wonderful news. So happy for her and her family. We'll done Liz Truss for succeeding where her predecessors failed (or barely tried).
    Or in the case of one recent one, actually made things worse.
  • What wonderful news. So happy for her and her family. We'll done Liz Truss for succeeding where her predecessors failed (or barely tried).
    It does look as if Liz Truss is receiving credit across the political divide
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    I suspect Labour would win Wakefield on current polling - and this will be a good indication that the Red Wall is returning to type.

    I would agree Wakefield if there is a by election should go back to Labour. The last time the Tories won Wakefield before 2019 was 1931.

    However Wakefield is only the 38th Labour target seat, Labour could win Wakefield and the Tories still win a small overall majority. The key thing will therefore be the size of the swing, not just whether Labour take it
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    A failure of the Iranian Government I hope you mean?

    I hope you're not blaming the UK Government for foreign nations taking hostages and not having the rule of law?
    A particular triumph for Liz Truss where Raab and Boris failed?

    Do we sense a photo op before long… 😉
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    edited March 2022
    Nigelb said:

    I note that these guys have overnight doubled their numbers of photographically confirmed Russian helicopter losses:
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    Which implies the Ukraine official estimates are not quite as overoptimistic as suggested.

    That looks like confirmation of a attack on an airbase -

    image

    What is slightly strange is that they don't present the location and other data...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274
    HYUFD said:

    Well compared to defeating China alone over Hong Kong (hence the 1997 handover went ahead) or defeating Russia over Ukraine, then defeating Argentina, which had less effectively trained troops or pilots than ours, a smaller navy and did not have nuclear weapons unlike us was not that difficult yes.

    We could defend the Falklands then and would defend them again today

    Are you sure about that?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    edited March 2022

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    46s
    BREAKING:

    The Kremlin has stated that an Austrian/Swedish neutrality model for Ukrainian, preserving their own Army but without foreign military bases, could be seen as a compromise - Interfax.

    That must mean that Russia is fine with EU membership, right?

    Especially when the EU develops its own version of NATO's Article 5 commitment to support any member invaded.....

    Plus "their own army" means "can we have our tanks back, please?"

    Plus - what is this Swedish neutrality model when they join NATO?
This discussion has been closed.