How’s the polling going to look in two years time – politicalbetting.com
How’s the polling going to look in two years time – politicalbetting.com
If Johnson does not go to the country early then in two years’ time we would be just about to start the general election campaign.
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As a PM, obviously he's electable as an MP, at least in the eyes of his constituents.
Go back two years, and try predicting then what’s happened since.
Value or not?
Hmm
It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.
In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.
Joe Rogan interview with Prof Michael Osterholm, the moment that caused many of us to wonder just how bad a pandemic could be. https://youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?
(Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)
Post Putin's war, I expect 'post truth politics' to become rather unfashionable.
That said, I doubt a winter election would be looked on favourably but an autumn election is, as you say, possible. But governments only tend to go right to the wire if they expect to lose.
Somebody on the last thread was wondering why some parts of the media seem more comfortable accepting Ukrainians that people on boats from France? what's the difference?
And I have no idea if Johnson was calling for tougher sanctions on Russia/Putin and his cronies in 2014 (I doubt it), but I agree that it was a mistake not to do more then.
But his defence of the Conservative party accepting large donations from rich Russians with dubious sources of wealth and connections to Putin is obviously shit.
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
The current bill is: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2859
But, overall, it's difficult to see a significant chunk of the country turning orange. A big problem for them is the leadership.
Davey (wow, I remembered his name) is a complete no-show so far as the public is concerned. Can't see that changing either. He sure ain't ain't an Ashdown or a Kennedy or a Clegg.
I was ridiculed when I called a Labour lead several months ago.
Today, the the UK Prime Minister promised to spaff up the wall a further £20 billion 200 million HPEs (hip replacement equivalents 20 thousand Schroeders on NHS Track and Trace.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541
https://twitter.com/curatorian/status/1503681237243809792?s=20&t=DXYUuqPx3J2jsOR68BKMzQ
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60743342
In all 3 of them the opposition were generally ahead in most of the polls. However on election night in not 1 of those general elections did the opposition win a big majority. In 1964 Wilson's Labour won with a majority of just 4, in 2010 Cameron's Tories won most seats but it was a hung parliament and in 1992 Major's Tories defied the odds to win a narrow re election and prevent Kinnock's expected arrival in Downing Steet.
So we should expect the next general election to be close but Labour to still be ahead in most polls
You took out my winner mid air, like a Kung fu movie. 😠
@CovertShores
Substantial #Russian Navy force, including landing ships, advancing on Odessa area today. Seen 09:47 UTC in satellite imagery
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/inside-nick-cleggs-7million-mansion-13909334
Asking for 7 billion friends
Now
To oppose honeysuckle, or not……
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2006/04/01/2003300390
Increases and bonuses since, perhaps.
Two last fence disasters in a row now for Riviere D'etel 😟
Dave reduced to writing in a shed in rural Oxfordshire, Clegg and his family living in a luxury multimillion dollar mansion in sunny California with vast salary to match
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1503728432408109063?s=20&t=DXYUuqPx3J2jsOR68BKMzQ
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
https://www.mfc.co.uk/news/a-statement-from-middlesbrough-fc
We are aware of Chelsea's request to have Saturday's Emirates FA Cup sixth round tie played behind closed doors and find their suggestion both bizarre and without any merit whatsoever.
All concerned are well aware of the reasons Chelsea have been sanctioned and that this has nothing to do with Middlesbrough Football Club.
To suggest as result that MFC and our fans should be penalised is not only grossly unfair but without any foundation.
Given the reasons for these sanctions, for Chelsea to seek to invoke sporting "integrity" as reason for the game being played behind closed doors is ironic in the extreme.
We currently await formal notification from the FA of the next steps but rest assured MFC will resist Chelsea's actions in the strongest terms.
Loving integrity in quotation marks.
On what do you base that?
At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.
https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1503367516529250305
It turns out that, before my obsessive three (ok, now four. Damn!) posts today mentioning Corbyn, I've obsessively made two other posts this month that referred to him. One was obsessively questioning why he didn't need a translation of Zelensky's speech, and one obsessively wondering whether his closeness to Barry Gardiner (whose son was in St Petersburg at the time) meant pressure was put on him over Salisbury response.
I don't appear to take my obsessions particularly seriously.
Interviewer: Vince, after he nailed your head to the floor, did you ever see him again
Vince: Yeah.....after that I used to go round his flat every Sunday lunchtime to apologize and we'd shake hands and then he'd nail my head to the floor
Interviewer: Every Sunday?
Vince: Yeah but he was very reasonable. Once, one Sunday, when my parents were coming round for tea I asked him if he'd mind very much not nailing my head to the floor that week and he agreed and just screwed my pelvis to a cake stand.
Those 'peak oil' guys (on the supply side, not demand) will never be correct now.
🇺🇦 forces battalion Azov announced killing the commander of 🇷🇺22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade, a major general, near Mariupol. Already 5th 🇷🇺 general KIA. This unit participated in murdering more than 150 civilians in Baku in January 1989.
https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1503693079592804360
But that doesn't mean a 'win' for Russia either.
If Ukraine comes out of this a sovereign, independent country, with a functioning (not sham) democracy, then in the long run that will be a 'win' for them - especially as they might find it much easier to rebuild than Russia will.
Inherited a nation that was set up to be doing well, rode their popularity to repeated electoral success, but didn't really achieve much of any lasting merit and with the delayed reverse Midas touch that much of what they touched turned to shit afterwards.
The longer Merkel is out of office, the worse of a missed opportunity her tenure is going to look in retrospect, a lot like Blair.
Someone has had great fun drafting that press release.
@navalnewscom
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21m
The Russian Navy is advancing on the Odessa region of Ukraine. Analysis shows that the force includes landing ships 🇷🇺🇺🇦
Until Russia stops advancing completely, or until there are significant Russian setbacks in terms of Ukrainian counter attacks, I will consider the attrition/culmination outcome as a hope, with the default expectation of eventual Russian occupation of all of Ukraine followed by a decade or so of pain for everyone.