And himself back in 2015 and 2016. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-claims-west-made-26469747 ...“What worries me now is that it is the EU’s pretensions to run a foreign policy and a defence policy that risk undermining Nato. We saw what happened in Bosnia, we’ve seen what happened in the Ukraine…
“All the EU can do in this question, in my view, is cause confusion and, as we’ve seen in the Balkans, I’m afraid a tragic incident, and in the Ukraine things went wrong as well.”
Former Swedish PM Carl Bildt hit out at Boris Johnson on Twitter at the time, saying: “I’m sorry to say, but @BorisJohnson is totally ignorant of the facts on Ukraine, EU and Russia. Apologist for Putin.”
In a December 2015 article, Boris Johnson said Britain should "deal with the devil" Putin, despite the Russian President being a "ruthless and manipulative tyrant"...
We are in the era of post Truth politics. Inconvenient past remarks and actions do not matter.
I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.
It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.
In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.
Joe Rogan interview with Prof Michael Osterholm, the moment that caused many of us to wonder just how bad a pandemic could be. https://youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.
It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.
In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.
I think you are pretty much spot on for best case Labour. Could the LDs surprise in Southern England?
I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.
It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.
In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.
Historically, overturning an 80 seat majority is a pretty rare event, and vanishingly so for an opposition working majority. NoC is my hunch, but anything can happen. A lot of electoral unprecedented stuff has happened in the last decade.
Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.
The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?
(Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)
And himself back in 2015 and 2016. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-claims-west-made-26469747 ...“What worries me now is that it is the EU’s pretensions to run a foreign policy and a defence policy that risk undermining Nato. We saw what happened in Bosnia, we’ve seen what happened in the Ukraine…
“All the EU can do in this question, in my view, is cause confusion and, as we’ve seen in the Balkans, I’m afraid a tragic incident, and in the Ukraine things went wrong as well.”
Former Swedish PM Carl Bildt hit out at Boris Johnson on Twitter at the time, saying: “I’m sorry to say, but @BorisJohnson is totally ignorant of the facts on Ukraine, EU and Russia. Apologist for Putin.”
In a December 2015 article, Boris Johnson said Britain should "deal with the devil" Putin, despite the Russian President being a "ruthless and manipulative tyrant"...
We are in the era of post Truth politics. Inconvenient past remarks and actions do not matter.
PM hindsight. Post Putin's war, I expect 'post truth politics' to become rather unfashionable.
Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.
The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?
(Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)
Once DACOP passes and FTPA is repealed, the automatic parliament end moves to 5 years from the day it first met, so the technical last date for an election would be January or possibly February 2025.
That said, I doubt a winter election would be looked on favourably but an autumn election is, as you say, possible. But governments only tend to go right to the wire if they expect to lose.
I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.
It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.
In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.
I think you are pretty much spot on for best case Labour. Could the LDs surprise in Southern England?
Apart from 1997, I think LDs or their predecessors have underperformed at GE all my political lifetime
Why can't the Ukrainians go to France? Why should they come here when they pass through so many safe countries? Economic migrants the lot of them
You make an unanswerable point, in truth, but look at the most upvoted comments at the Mail.
Voters might not be as keen to accept big numbers of Ukrainians as some would have us believe.
When there are four Ukrainians in your kid's class or one is ahead of you for medical treatment, sentiment could sour further, sadly.
What about when one is providing your medical treatment? (assuming that we permit the suitably qualified to contribute in that kind of way)
I don't have any problem with refugees personally.
Somebody on the last thread was wondering why some parts of the media seem more comfortable accepting Ukrainians that people on boats from France? what's the difference?
And himself back in 2015 and 2016. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-claims-west-made-26469747 ...“What worries me now is that it is the EU’s pretensions to run a foreign policy and a defence policy that risk undermining Nato. We saw what happened in Bosnia, we’ve seen what happened in the Ukraine…
“All the EU can do in this question, in my view, is cause confusion and, as we’ve seen in the Balkans, I’m afraid a tragic incident, and in the Ukraine things went wrong as well.”
Former Swedish PM Carl Bildt hit out at Boris Johnson on Twitter at the time, saying: “I’m sorry to say, but @BorisJohnson is totally ignorant of the facts on Ukraine, EU and Russia. Apologist for Putin.”
In a December 2015 article, Boris Johnson said Britain should "deal with the devil" Putin, despite the Russian President being a "ruthless and manipulative tyrant"...
We are in the era of post Truth politics. Inconvenient past remarks and actions do not matter.
His criticism of EU foreign policy in 2016 seems a bit vague, so probably not based on any well-informed analysis, but it's not really inconsistent with recent remarks is it? And I have no idea if Johnson was calling for tougher sanctions on Russia/Putin and his cronies in 2014 (I doubt it), but I agree that it was a mistake not to do more then.
But his defence of the Conservative party accepting large donations from rich Russians with dubious sources of wealth and connections to Putin is obviously shit.
I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.
It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.
In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.
I think you are pretty much spot on for best case Labour. Could the LDs surprise in Southern England?
Yes, they could. But that surprise could be on the downside as well as the upside.
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.
The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?
(Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)
Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.
The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?
(Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)
Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.
The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?
(Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
1 million Euro a year, so they say.
Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
1 million Euro a year, so they say.
Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
That was for the Sekrit Lib Dem Bar Chart technology.
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
1 million Euro a year, so they say.
Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
Blair charged 5 million GBP a year to do the PR for Kazakhstan's dictator. But I guess that was part-time.
I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.
It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.
In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.
I think you are pretty much spot on for best case Labour. Could the LDs surprise in Southern England?
I think the LDs can cause a few upsets at individual constituency level if they target cleverly. And I suspect they will.
But, overall, it's difficult to see a significant chunk of the country turning orange. A big problem for them is the leadership.
Davey (wow, I remembered his name) is a complete no-show so far as the public is concerned. Can't see that changing either. He sure ain't ain't an Ashdown or a Kennedy or a Clegg.
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
1 million Euro a year, so they say.
Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
Do we conclude from that that Nick Clegg still has a conscience that needs to be bought off?
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
1 million Euro a year, so they say.
Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
Do we conclude from that that Nick Clegg still has a conscience that needs to be bought off?
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
1 million Euro a year, so they say.
Could be a handy new unit of cost. Bigger than the hip replacement, so more manageable numbers:
Today, the the UK Prime Minister promised to spaff up the wall a further £20 billion200 million HPEs (hip replacement equivalents 20 thousand Schroeders on NHS Track and Trace.
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
1 million Euro a year, so they say.
Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
Do we conclude from that that Nick Clegg still has a conscience that needs to be bought off?
To misquote GB Shaw, we know what they are. Nick Clegg is just better at negotiating the price.
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
Rather a fine painting which popped up on my twitter; grimly aposite. Rosoman was a visting lecturer when I was an art student back in prehistory, lovely bloke.
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
1 million Euro a year, so they say.
Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
Blair charged 5 million GBP a year to do the PR for Kazakhstan's dictator. But I guess that was part-time.
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
The last 3 general elections we have had after more than 10 years of one party in government but less than 15 years in power, ie the equivalent of the next UK general election, were in 2010, 1992 and 1964.
In all 3 of them the opposition were generally ahead in most of the polls. However on election night in not 1 of those general elections did the opposition win a big majority. In 1964 Wilson's Labour won with a majority of just 4, in 2010 Cameron's Tories won most seats but it was a hung parliament and in 1992 Major's Tories defied the odds to win a narrow re election and prevent Kinnock's expected arrival in Downing Steet.
So we should expect the next general election to be close but Labour to still be ahead in most polls
The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.
Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
Given Californian prices, that'll be worth £10m now.
Seems to have done rather better financially than Dave since the Coalition anyway, despite the 2015 election result when Dave came on top.
Dave reduced to writing in a shed in rural Oxfordshire, Clegg and his family living in a luxury multimillion dollar mansion in sunny California with vast salary to match
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
Given Californian prices, that'll be worth £10m now.
Seems to have done rather better financially than Dave since the Coalition anyway, despite the 2015 election result when Dave came on top.
Dave reduced to writing in a shed in rural Oxfordshire, Clegg and his family living in a luxury multimillion dollar mansion in sunny California with vast salary to match
How many times? It's not a shed, it's a writing studio. Consider it as on par with Dylan Thomas' boathouse.
Given there are bugger all Yuan assets available for Saudi Arabia to own, this is basically just for show.
In addition; surely Saudi Arabia only has another decade or two to gain all those lovely petrochemical Yuans if the plans to electrify and go green occur to schedule? Whilst there will always be a demand for oil and gas, isn't that demand going to reduce dramatically in the next few years?
Given Californian prices, that'll be worth £10m now.
Seems to have done rather better financially than Dave since the Coalition anyway, despite the 2015 election result when Dave came on top.
Dave reduced to writing in a shed in rural Oxfordshire, Clegg and his family living in a luxury multimillion dollar mansion in sunny California with vast salary to match
We are aware of Chelsea's request to have Saturday's Emirates FA Cup sixth round tie played behind closed doors and find their suggestion both bizarre and without any merit whatsoever. All concerned are well aware of the reasons Chelsea have been sanctioned and that this has nothing to do with Middlesbrough Football Club.
To suggest as result that MFC and our fans should be penalised is not only grossly unfair but without any foundation.
Given the reasons for these sanctions, for Chelsea to seek to invoke sporting "integrity" as reason for the game being played behind closed doors is ironic in the extreme.
We currently await formal notification from the FA of the next steps but rest assured MFC will resist Chelsea's actions in the strongest terms.
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
You think Putin will conquer the whole of Ukraine?
Given there are bugger all Yuan assets available for Saudi Arabia to own, this is basically just for show.
In addition; surely Saudi Arabia only has another decade or two to gain all those lovely petrochemical Yuans if the plans to electrify and go green occur to schedule? Whilst there will always be a demand for oil and gas, isn't that demand going to reduce dramatically in the next few years?
Real peak oil - when demand starts to fall, despite economic growth. In some parts of the petroleum market, that has already happened.
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
Unless a NATO nation is invaded, NATO will not become directly involved
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
"I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
"I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"
Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?
At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.
@emilykschrader Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko says his models for how to win against all odds are Israel – a country he has visited and admires – and the IDF. “We have to learn from Israel how to defend our country, with every citizen”
Why does he want to murder Palestinians? #CorbynKlaxon
You're strangely obsessed with Corbyn and his mates, who have about as much influence on current events as my dog. Weird.
I thought this "strange obsession" needed looking into, so I looked through all my recent posts.
It turns out that, before my obsessive three (ok, now four. Damn!) posts today mentioning Corbyn, I've obsessively made two other posts this month that referred to him. One was obsessively questioning why he didn't need a translation of Zelensky's speech, and one obsessively wondering whether his closeness to Barry Gardiner (whose son was in St Petersburg at the time) meant pressure was put on him over Salisbury response.
I don't appear to take my obsessions particularly seriously.
Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?
At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.
{Dinsdale Piranha has entered the chat}
Interviewer: Vince, after he nailed your head to the floor, did you ever see him again
Vince: Yeah.....after that I used to go round his flat every Sunday lunchtime to apologize and we'd shake hands and then he'd nail my head to the floor
Interviewer: Every Sunday?
Vince: Yeah but he was very reasonable. Once, one Sunday, when my parents were coming round for tea I asked him if he'd mind very much not nailing my head to the floor that week and he agreed and just screwed my pelvis to a cake stand.
@emilykschrader Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko says his models for how to win against all odds are Israel – a country he has visited and admires – and the IDF. “We have to learn from Israel how to defend our country, with every citizen”
Why does he want to murder Palestinians? #CorbynKlaxon
You're strangely obsessed with Corbyn and his mates, who have about as much influence on current events as my dog. Weird.
I thought this "strange obsession" needed looking into, so I looked through all my recent posts.
It turns out that, before my obsessive three (ok, now four. Damn!) posts today mentioning Corbyn, I've obsessively made two other posts this month that referred to him. One was obsessively questioning why he didn't need a translation of Zelensky's speech, and one obsessively wondering whether his closeness to Barry Gardiner (whose son was in St Petersburg at the time) meant pressure was put on him over Salisbury response.
I don't appear to take my obsessions particularly seriously.
I think you are developing an obsessions about your obsessions. This can only go even more meta....
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
"I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"
On what do you base that?
My first clue was the massive amounts of damage that are wrecking the infrastructure and social fabric of the country. That's not winning.
Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?
At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.
I really don't think history will be kind to Frau Merkel.
Given there are bugger all Yuan assets available for Saudi Arabia to own, this is basically just for show.
In addition; surely Saudi Arabia only has another decade or two to gain all those lovely petrochemical Yuans if the plans to electrify and go green occur to schedule? Whilst there will always be a demand for oil and gas, isn't that demand going to reduce dramatically in the next few years?
Real peak oil - when demand starts to fall, despite economic growth. In some parts of the petroleum market, that has already happened.
I try to avoid the term 'peak oil' for the obvious reasons.
Those 'peak oil' guys (on the supply side, not demand) will never be correct now.
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
"I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"
On what do you base that?
My first clue was the massive amounts of damage that are wrecking the infrastructure and social fabric of the country. That's not winning.
Though to be fair, in that part of the world, this has been described as winning -
Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?
At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.
I don't think badly of Merkel, but the whole thing does show that Germany was still in 2014 when she left. Scholz has had a lot of catching up to do in not very much time, to adjust Germany to the new political reality.
🇺🇦 forces battalion Azov announced killing the commander of 🇷🇺22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade, a major general, near Mariupol. Already 5th 🇷🇺 general KIA. This unit participated in murdering more than 150 civilians in Baku in January 1989.
Given there are bugger all Yuan assets available for Saudi Arabia to own, this is basically just for show.
In addition; surely Saudi Arabia only has another decade or two to gain all those lovely petrochemical Yuans if the plans to electrify and go green occur to schedule? Whilst there will always be a demand for oil and gas, isn't that demand going to reduce dramatically in the next few years?
Real peak oil - when demand starts to fall, despite economic growth. In some parts of the petroleum market, that has already happened.
I try to avoid the term 'peak oil' for the obvious reasons.
Those 'peak oil' guys (on the supply side, not demand) will never be correct now.
Re-purposing the word is about yanking their chains.
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
"I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"
On what do you base that?
My first clue was the massive amounts of damage that are wrecking the infrastructure and social fabric of the country. That's not winning.
Well, in the case Ukraine can never 'win'.
But that doesn't mean a 'win' for Russia either.
If Ukraine comes out of this a sovereign, independent country, with a functioning (not sham) democracy, then in the long run that will be a 'win' for them - especially as they might find it much easier to rebuild than Russia will.
Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?
At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.
I don't think badly of Merkel, but the whole thing does show that Germany was still in 2014 when she left. Scholz has had a lot of catching up to do in not very much time, to adjust Germany to the new political reality.
I do think badly of Merkel and think that she's very comparable in a lot of ways to Tony Blair here.
Inherited a nation that was set up to be doing well, rode their popularity to repeated electoral success, but didn't really achieve much of any lasting merit and with the delayed reverse Midas touch that much of what they touched turned to shit afterwards.
The longer Merkel is out of office, the worse of a missed opportunity her tenure is going to look in retrospect, a lot like Blair.
I've not been following this aspect all that closely. Is this a change in their position?
This isn't particularly new in that Zelensky was saying similar things last week. I have no doubt this is all linked with the talks process - to the extent there is a way out of this, it will probably involve some compromises over governance of the Donbas, and Ukraine and the US giving some ground on ambition to join and willingness to admit Ukraine to NATO.
We are aware of Chelsea's request to have Saturday's Emirates FA Cup sixth round tie played behind closed doors and find their suggestion both bizarre and without any merit whatsoever. All concerned are well aware of the reasons Chelsea have been sanctioned and that this has nothing to do with Middlesbrough Football Club.
To suggest as result that MFC and our fans should be penalised is not only grossly unfair but without any foundation.
Given the reasons for these sanctions, for Chelsea to seek to invoke sporting "integrity" as reason for the game being played behind closed doors is ironic in the extreme.
We currently await formal notification from the FA of the next steps but rest assured MFC will resist Chelsea's actions in the strongest terms.
Loving integrity in quotation marks.
Lol! Brilliant.
Someone has had great fun drafting that press release.
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
"I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"
On what do you base that?
My first clue was the massive amounts of damage that are wrecking the infrastructure and social fabric of the country. That's not winning.
Naval News @navalnewscom · 21m The Russian Navy is advancing on the Odessa region of Ukraine. Analysis shows that the force includes landing ships 🇷🇺🇺🇦
A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?
Asking for 7 billion friends
WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
"I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"
On what do you base that?
I don't know what is happening, nor do I make confident predictions of where it will end up. But my worry is that, despite the Gospel according to Twitter (good news twitter posts), Russian troops keep on advancing inexorably without any significant Ukrainian counter-attacks.
Until Russia stops advancing completely, or until there are significant Russian setbacks in terms of Ukrainian counter attacks, I will consider the attrition/culmination outcome as a hope, with the default expectation of eventual Russian occupation of all of Ukraine followed by a decade or so of pain for everyone.
Comments
As a PM, obviously he's electable as an MP, at least in the eyes of his constituents.
Go back two years, and try predicting then what’s happened since.
Value or not?
Hmm
It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.
In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.
Joe Rogan interview with Prof Michael Osterholm, the moment that caused many of us to wonder just how bad a pandemic could be. https://youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?
(Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)
Post Putin's war, I expect 'post truth politics' to become rather unfashionable.
That said, I doubt a winter election would be looked on favourably but an autumn election is, as you say, possible. But governments only tend to go right to the wire if they expect to lose.
Somebody on the last thread was wondering why some parts of the media seem more comfortable accepting Ukrainians that people on boats from France? what's the difference?
And I have no idea if Johnson was calling for tougher sanctions on Russia/Putin and his cronies in 2014 (I doubt it), but I agree that it was a mistake not to do more then.
But his defence of the Conservative party accepting large donations from rich Russians with dubious sources of wealth and connections to Putin is obviously shit.
(How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
The current bill is: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2859
But, overall, it's difficult to see a significant chunk of the country turning orange. A big problem for them is the leadership.
Davey (wow, I remembered his name) is a complete no-show so far as the public is concerned. Can't see that changing either. He sure ain't ain't an Ashdown or a Kennedy or a Clegg.
I was ridiculed when I called a Labour lead several months ago.
Today, the the UK Prime Minister promised to spaff up the wall a further £20 billion 200 million HPEs (hip replacement equivalents 20 thousand Schroeders on NHS Track and Trace.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541
https://twitter.com/curatorian/status/1503681237243809792?s=20&t=DXYUuqPx3J2jsOR68BKMzQ
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60743342
In all 3 of them the opposition were generally ahead in most of the polls. However on election night in not 1 of those general elections did the opposition win a big majority. In 1964 Wilson's Labour won with a majority of just 4, in 2010 Cameron's Tories won most seats but it was a hung parliament and in 1992 Major's Tories defied the odds to win a narrow re election and prevent Kinnock's expected arrival in Downing Steet.
So we should expect the next general election to be close but Labour to still be ahead in most polls
You took out my winner mid air, like a Kung fu movie. 😠
@CovertShores
Substantial #Russian Navy force, including landing ships, advancing on Odessa area today. Seen 09:47 UTC in satellite imagery
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/inside-nick-cleggs-7million-mansion-13909334
Asking for 7 billion friends
Now
To oppose honeysuckle, or not……
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2006/04/01/2003300390
Increases and bonuses since, perhaps.
Two last fence disasters in a row now for Riviere D'etel 😟
Dave reduced to writing in a shed in rural Oxfordshire, Clegg and his family living in a luxury multimillion dollar mansion in sunny California with vast salary to match
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1503728432408109063?s=20&t=DXYUuqPx3J2jsOR68BKMzQ
However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
https://www.mfc.co.uk/news/a-statement-from-middlesbrough-fc
We are aware of Chelsea's request to have Saturday's Emirates FA Cup sixth round tie played behind closed doors and find their suggestion both bizarre and without any merit whatsoever.
All concerned are well aware of the reasons Chelsea have been sanctioned and that this has nothing to do with Middlesbrough Football Club.
To suggest as result that MFC and our fans should be penalised is not only grossly unfair but without any foundation.
Given the reasons for these sanctions, for Chelsea to seek to invoke sporting "integrity" as reason for the game being played behind closed doors is ironic in the extreme.
We currently await formal notification from the FA of the next steps but rest assured MFC will resist Chelsea's actions in the strongest terms.
Loving integrity in quotation marks.
On what do you base that?
At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.
https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1503367516529250305
It turns out that, before my obsessive three (ok, now four. Damn!) posts today mentioning Corbyn, I've obsessively made two other posts this month that referred to him. One was obsessively questioning why he didn't need a translation of Zelensky's speech, and one obsessively wondering whether his closeness to Barry Gardiner (whose son was in St Petersburg at the time) meant pressure was put on him over Salisbury response.
I don't appear to take my obsessions particularly seriously.
Interviewer: Vince, after he nailed your head to the floor, did you ever see him again
Vince: Yeah.....after that I used to go round his flat every Sunday lunchtime to apologize and we'd shake hands and then he'd nail my head to the floor
Interviewer: Every Sunday?
Vince: Yeah but he was very reasonable. Once, one Sunday, when my parents were coming round for tea I asked him if he'd mind very much not nailing my head to the floor that week and he agreed and just screwed my pelvis to a cake stand.
Those 'peak oil' guys (on the supply side, not demand) will never be correct now.
🇺🇦 forces battalion Azov announced killing the commander of 🇷🇺22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade, a major general, near Mariupol. Already 5th 🇷🇺 general KIA. This unit participated in murdering more than 150 civilians in Baku in January 1989.
https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1503693079592804360
But that doesn't mean a 'win' for Russia either.
If Ukraine comes out of this a sovereign, independent country, with a functioning (not sham) democracy, then in the long run that will be a 'win' for them - especially as they might find it much easier to rebuild than Russia will.
Inherited a nation that was set up to be doing well, rode their popularity to repeated electoral success, but didn't really achieve much of any lasting merit and with the delayed reverse Midas touch that much of what they touched turned to shit afterwards.
The longer Merkel is out of office, the worse of a missed opportunity her tenure is going to look in retrospect, a lot like Blair.
Someone has had great fun drafting that press release.
@navalnewscom
·
21m
The Russian Navy is advancing on the Odessa region of Ukraine. Analysis shows that the force includes landing ships 🇷🇺🇺🇦
Until Russia stops advancing completely, or until there are significant Russian setbacks in terms of Ukrainian counter attacks, I will consider the attrition/culmination outcome as a hope, with the default expectation of eventual Russian occupation of all of Ukraine followed by a decade or so of pain for everyone.