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How’s the polling going to look in two years time – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited March 2022 in General
imageHow’s the polling going to look in two years time – politicalbetting.com

If Johnson does not go to the country early then in two years’ time we would be just about to start the general election campaign.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Well, no. This time Labour don't have someone clearly unelectable* in charge. That helps.

    As a PM, obviously he's electable as an MP, at least in the eyes of his constituents.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    🐎 😍
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    FPT
    MISTY said:

    Why can't the Ukrainians go to France? Why should they come here when they pass through so many safe countries? Economic migrants the lot of them

    You make an unanswerable point, in truth, but look at the most upvoted comments at the Mail.

    Voters might not be as keen to accept big numbers of Ukrainians as some would have us believe.

    When there are four Ukrainians in your kid's class or one is ahead of you for medical treatment, sentiment could sour further, sadly.

    What about when one is providing your medical treatment? (assuming that we permit the suitably qualified to contribute in that kind of way)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Nigelb said:

    Lol, hope he's cleared this with his pal Evgeny.


    And himself back in 2015 and 2016.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-claims-west-made-26469747
    ...“What worries me now is that it is the EU’s pretensions to run a foreign policy and a defence policy that risk undermining Nato. We saw what happened in Bosnia, we’ve seen what happened in the Ukraine…

    “All the EU can do in this question, in my view, is cause confusion and, as we’ve seen in the Balkans, I’m afraid a tragic incident, and in the Ukraine things went wrong as well.”

    Former Swedish PM Carl Bildt hit out at Boris Johnson on Twitter at the time, saying: “I’m sorry to say, but @BorisJohnson is totally ignorant of the facts on Ukraine, EU and Russia. Apologist for Putin.”

    In a December 2015 article, Boris Johnson said Britain should "deal with the devil" Putin, despite the Russian President being a "ruthless and manipulative tyrant"...
    We are in the era of post Truth politics. Inconvenient past remarks and actions do not matter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited March 2022
    If a week is a long time in politics, then two years is an eternity…

    Go back two years, and try predicting then what’s happened since.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    2.10pm Edwardstone @3/1

    Value or not?

    Hmm
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    What about swingback? I thought there was some sort of calculation based on byelections (local or otherwise?) or opinion polls?
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited March 2022
    I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.

    It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.

    In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    ping said:

    2.10pm Edwardstone @3/1

    Value or not?

    Hmm

    Value. Go for it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    10th March 2020, almost exactly two years ago.

    Joe Rogan interview with Prof Michael Osterholm, the moment that caused many of us to wonder just how bad a pandemic could be. https://youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.

    It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.

    In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.

    I think you are pretty much spot on for best case Labour. Could the LDs surprise in Southern England?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.

    It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.

    In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.

    Historically, overturning an 80 seat majority is a pretty rare event, and vanishingly so for an opposition working majority. NoC is my hunch, but anything can happen. A lot of electoral unprecedented stuff has happened in the last decade.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,779
    Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.

    The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?

    (Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited March 2022
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Lol, hope he's cleared this with his pal Evgeny.


    And himself back in 2015 and 2016.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-claims-west-made-26469747
    ...“What worries me now is that it is the EU’s pretensions to run a foreign policy and a defence policy that risk undermining Nato. We saw what happened in Bosnia, we’ve seen what happened in the Ukraine…

    “All the EU can do in this question, in my view, is cause confusion and, as we’ve seen in the Balkans, I’m afraid a tragic incident, and in the Ukraine things went wrong as well.”

    Former Swedish PM Carl Bildt hit out at Boris Johnson on Twitter at the time, saying: “I’m sorry to say, but @BorisJohnson is totally ignorant of the facts on Ukraine, EU and Russia. Apologist for Putin.”

    In a December 2015 article, Boris Johnson said Britain should "deal with the devil" Putin, despite the Russian President being a "ruthless and manipulative tyrant"...
    We are in the era of post Truth politics. Inconvenient past remarks and actions do not matter.
    PM hindsight.
    Post Putin's war, I expect 'post truth politics' to become rather unfashionable.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited March 2022
    Lennon said:

    Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.

    The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?

    (Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)

    Once DACOP passes and FTPA is repealed, the automatic parliament end moves to 5 years from the day it first met, so the technical last date for an election would be January or possibly February 2025.

    That said, I doubt a winter election would be looked on favourably but an autumn election is, as you say, possible. But governments only tend to go right to the wire if they expect to lose.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited March 2022
    Sandpit said:

    If a week is a long time in politics, then two years is an eternity…

    Go back two years, and try predicting then what’s happened since.

    Bit more. It was fairly obvious in Jan 2020 what was quite possibly coming covid wise. But if you add 3-4 months, you're not wrong.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.

    It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.

    In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.

    I think you are pretty much spot on for best case Labour. Could the LDs surprise in Southern England?
    Apart from 1997, I think LDs or their predecessors have underperformed at GE all my political lifetime
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Selebian said:

    FPT

    MISTY said:

    Why can't the Ukrainians go to France? Why should they come here when they pass through so many safe countries? Economic migrants the lot of them

    You make an unanswerable point, in truth, but look at the most upvoted comments at the Mail.

    Voters might not be as keen to accept big numbers of Ukrainians as some would have us believe.

    When there are four Ukrainians in your kid's class or one is ahead of you for medical treatment, sentiment could sour further, sadly.

    What about when one is providing your medical treatment? (assuming that we permit the suitably qualified to contribute in that kind of way)
    I don't have any problem with refugees personally.

    Somebody on the last thread was wondering why some parts of the media seem more comfortable accepting Ukrainians that people on boats from France? what's the difference?

  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Lol, hope he's cleared this with his pal Evgeny.


    And himself back in 2015 and 2016.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-claims-west-made-26469747
    ...“What worries me now is that it is the EU’s pretensions to run a foreign policy and a defence policy that risk undermining Nato. We saw what happened in Bosnia, we’ve seen what happened in the Ukraine…

    “All the EU can do in this question, in my view, is cause confusion and, as we’ve seen in the Balkans, I’m afraid a tragic incident, and in the Ukraine things went wrong as well.”

    Former Swedish PM Carl Bildt hit out at Boris Johnson on Twitter at the time, saying: “I’m sorry to say, but @BorisJohnson is totally ignorant of the facts on Ukraine, EU and Russia. Apologist for Putin.”

    In a December 2015 article, Boris Johnson said Britain should "deal with the devil" Putin, despite the Russian President being a "ruthless and manipulative tyrant"...
    We are in the era of post Truth politics. Inconvenient past remarks and actions do not matter.
    His criticism of EU foreign policy in 2016 seems a bit vague, so probably not based on any well-informed analysis, but it's not really inconsistent with recent remarks is it?
    And I have no idea if Johnson was calling for tougher sanctions on Russia/Putin and his cronies in 2014 (I doubt it), but I agree that it was a mistake not to do more then.

    But his defence of the Conservative party accepting large donations from rich Russians with dubious sources of wealth and connections to Putin is obviously shit.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited March 2022
    [Deleted]
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.

    It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.

    In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.

    I think you are pretty much spot on for best case Labour. Could the LDs surprise in Southern England?
    Yes, they could. But that surprise could be on the downside as well as the upside.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Lennon said:

    Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.

    The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?

    (Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)

    Under the draft bill, the maximum length of this parliament is still May 2024: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/lbill/58-01/086/5801086.pdf

    The next election is specifically dealt with, the general rule will of course go back to 5 year maximums.
    That isn't the current bill, it's one from the last parliament that never got past 2nd reading in the Lords.

    The current bill is: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2859
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Applicant said:

    Lennon said:

    Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.

    The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?

    (Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)

    Under the draft bill, the maximum length of this parliament is still May 2024: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/lbill/58-01/086/5801086.pdf

    The next election is specifically dealt with, the general rule will of course go back to 5 year maximums.
    That isn't the current bill, it's one from the last parliament that never got past 2nd reading in the Lords.

    The current bill is: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2859
    Yes, you'll see I've already deleted my post.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Air raid sirens in Lviv, Western Ukraine, this afternoon. Worrying development, first time for that city.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Lennon said:

    Question for those more versed in the nuance of parliamentary legislation than I am.

    The previous election was in December 2019. Under the FTPA that makes the next election May 2024. However - the Tories are in the process of repealing the FTPA - which presumably means that the rules for when the next election are held revert to the previous 'will be dissolved after 5 years' and so the "time running out" point for the next election (assuming the FTPA is repealed) actually switches to December 2024. Is this correct (and if not why not)?

    (Obviously in such a scenario I would still expect a May 2024 election - but having the option to leave it till September/October is certainly an interesting one that seems worth having)

    Under the draft bill, the maximum length of this parliament is still May 2024: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/lbill/58-01/086/5801086.pdf

    The next election is specifically dealt with, the general rule will of course go back to 5 year maximums.
    That isn't the current bill, it's one from the last parliament that never got past 2nd reading in the Lords.

    The current bill is: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2859
    Yes, you'll see I've already deleted my post.
    Ah, OK. I was too quick :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    1 million Euro a year, so they say.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    1 million Euro a year, so they say.
    Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    1 million Euro a year, so they say.
    Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
    Blair charged 5 million GBP a year to do the PR for Kazakhstan's dictator. But I guess that was part-time.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    I'm quite cautious about Labour's prospects for the next GE even if I can now see how Labour could win back plenty of seats in the north of England. I don't see Labour gaining more than 100 seats as a best case scenario and more likely only 60-80 gains for Labour regardless of who's leading the Tories.

    It's a mistake to completely underestimate Johnson even if he fights the next election even if I think ~315-320 seats is his best case scenario in 2024.

    In terms of vote share I don't see Labour winning the popular vote by more than 2-5% tops although that would still be a large swing from 2019, significantly exceeding Cameron's 5% swing.

    I think you are pretty much spot on for best case Labour. Could the LDs surprise in Southern England?
    I think the LDs can cause a few upsets at individual constituency level if they target cleverly. And I suspect they will.

    But, overall, it's difficult to see a significant chunk of the country turning orange. A big problem for them is the leadership.

    Davey (wow, I remembered his name) is a complete no-show so far as the public is concerned. Can't see that changing either. He sure ain't ain't an Ashdown or a Kennedy or a Clegg.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    1 million Euro a year, so they say.
    Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
    Do we conclude from that that Nick Clegg still has a conscience that needs to be bought off?
  • A large Labour lead.

    I was ridiculed when I called a Labour lead several months ago.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    1 million Euro a year, so they say.
    Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
    Do we conclude from that that Nick Clegg still has a conscience that needs to be bought off?
    A couple of million students probably think so.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    1 million Euro a year, so they say.
    Could be a handy new unit of cost. Bigger than the hip replacement, so more manageable numbers:

    Today, the the UK Prime Minister promised to spaff up the wall a further £20 billion 200 million HPEs (hip replacement equivalents 20 thousand Schroeders on NHS Track and Trace.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    Schroder is positively disgusting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    Rather a fine painting which popped up on my twitter; grimly aposite. Rosoman was a visting lecturer when I was an art student back in prehistory, lovely bloke.



    https://twitter.com/curatorian/status/1503681237243809792?s=20&t=DXYUuqPx3J2jsOR68BKMzQ


  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    A large Labour lead.

    I was ridiculed when I called a Labour lead several months ago.

    By who?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    kamski said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    1 million Euro a year, so they say.
    Bloody hell he’s cheap. It costs $10m a year to get a Nick Clegg spinning for a bunch of scumbags.
    Blair charged 5 million GBP a year to do the PR for Kazakhstan's dictator. But I guess that was part-time.
    But Blair is a warmonger, so it's par.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    Jail the traitor(s)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60743342
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Given there are bugger all Yuan assets available for Saudi Arabia to own, this is basically just for show.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    The last 3 general elections we have had after more than 10 years of one party in government but less than 15 years in power, ie the equivalent of the next UK general election, were in 2010, 1992 and 1964.

    In all 3 of them the opposition were generally ahead in most of the polls. However on election night in not 1 of those general elections did the opposition win a big majority. In 1964 Wilson's Labour won with a majority of just 4, in 2010 Cameron's Tories won most seats but it was a hung parliament and in 1992 Major's Tories defied the odds to win a narrow re election and prevent Kinnock's expected arrival in Downing Steet.

    So we should expect the next general election to be close but Labour to still be ahead in most polls
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    The advantages of being the single reserve currency are overstated. It mainly just unbalances the US economy.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Yeeeee
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    ping said:

    2.10pm Edwardstone @3/1

    Value or not?

    Hmm

    THAT will have to be looked at.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    Thank goodness money grabbing, oligarch pandering, Putin appeasing Schröder, Blair and Clegg aren't in power in our fine country.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited March 2022
    ping said:

    Yeeeee

    Hold your horses. Whoever in second may have win here.

    You took out my winner mid air, like a Kung fu movie. 😠
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    It looks like the postponed amphibious landing in Odessa may be back on again:

    @CovertShores
    Substantial #Russian Navy force, including landing ships, advancing on Odessa area today. Seen 09:47 UTC in satellite imagery


    image
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    The tectonic plates of international politics are indeed shifting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Thank goodness money grabbing, oligarch pandering, Putin appeasing Schröder, Blair and Clegg aren't in power in our fine country.

    Clegg no longer even lives in our country but in a £7 million mansion in California
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/inside-nick-cleggs-7million-mansion-13909334
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2022
    I’m giving the 2.50 a miss.

    Now

    To oppose honeysuckle, or not……
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    HYUFD said:

    Thank goodness money grabbing, oligarch pandering, Putin appeasing Schröder, Blair and Clegg aren't in power in our fine country.

    Clegg no longer even lives in our country but in a £7 million mansion in California
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/inside-nick-cleggs-7million-mansion-13909334
    Given Californian prices, that'll be worth £10m now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    I was about to ask the same...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    rcs1000 said:

    The city of Hanover said that they would withdraw Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship (like freedom of the city) if he didn't distance himself from Putin, and in response Schröder chose to give it up.

    image

    Do you think Schroder is planning on being a character witness for Putin in The Hague?

    (How much do you think a Schroder costs? Maybe PB can get together and buy one.)
    1 million Euro a year, so they say.
    250k Euro a year when he started, back in 2006.

    https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2006/04/01/2003300390

    Increases and bonuses since, perhaps.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    What about swingback? I thought there was some sort of calculation based on byelections (local or otherwise?) or opinion polls?

    There was, yes, on Parliamentary by-elections, but 2010 broke it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited March 2022
    ping said:

    I’m giving the 2.50 a miss.

    Now

    To oppose honeysuckle, or not……

    Sub plots. The brits whipping the Irish.

    Two last fence disasters in a row now for Riviere D'etel 😟
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thank goodness money grabbing, oligarch pandering, Putin appeasing Schröder, Blair and Clegg aren't in power in our fine country.

    Clegg no longer even lives in our country but in a £7 million mansion in California
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/inside-nick-cleggs-7million-mansion-13909334
    Given Californian prices, that'll be worth £10m now.
    Seems to have done rather better financially than Dave since the Coalition anyway, despite the 2015 election result when Dave came on top.

    Dave reduced to writing in a shed in rural Oxfordshire, Clegg and his family living in a luxury multimillion dollar mansion in sunny California with vast salary to match
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.

    However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thank goodness money grabbing, oligarch pandering, Putin appeasing Schröder, Blair and Clegg aren't in power in our fine country.

    Clegg no longer even lives in our country but in a £7 million mansion in California
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/inside-nick-cleggs-7million-mansion-13909334
    Given Californian prices, that'll be worth £10m now.
    Seems to have done rather better financially than Dave since the Coalition anyway, despite the 2015 election result when Dave came on top.

    Dave reduced to writing in a shed in rural Oxfordshire, Clegg and his family living in a luxury multimillion dollar mansion in sunny California with vast salary to match
    How many times? It's not a shed, it's a writing studio. Consider it as on par with Dylan Thomas' boathouse.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    rcs1000 said:

    Given there are bugger all Yuan assets available for Saudi Arabia to own, this is basically just for show.
    In addition; surely Saudi Arabia only has another decade or two to gain all those lovely petrochemical Yuans if the plans to electrify and go green occur to schedule? Whilst there will always be a demand for oil and gas, isn't that demand going to reduce dramatically in the next few years?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.

    However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
    You think Putin will conquer the whole of Ukraine?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    🐎 😍

    great start for you
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    I've not been following this aspect all that closely. Is this a change in their position?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    rcs1000 said:

    Given there are bugger all Yuan assets available for Saudi Arabia to own, this is basically just for show.
    In addition; surely Saudi Arabia only has another decade or two to gain all those lovely petrochemical Yuans if the plans to electrify and go green occur to schedule? Whilst there will always be a demand for oil and gas, isn't that demand going to reduce dramatically in the next few years?
    Real peak oil - when demand starts to fall, despite economic growth. In some parts of the petroleum market, that has already happened.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    RobD said:

    I've not been following this aspect all that closely. Is this a change in their position?
    Not really. Zelensky has always been clear that he doesn't want Ukraine dependent on NATO.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    RobD said:

    I've not been following this aspect all that closely. Is this a change in their position?
    I don't think so, they must know that they're ineligible for as long as they have a border dispute with Russia.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.

    However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
    Unless a NATO nation is invaded, NATO will not become directly involved
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.

    However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
    "I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"

    On what do you base that?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.

    However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
    "I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"

    On what do you base that?
    It's what Russia DOES
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?

    At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    The Russian war effort could collapse in 10 to 14 days according to a number of military experts. Apparently the word to describe it is "culmination".

    https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1503367516529250305
  • FPT

    @emilykschrader
    Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko says his models for how to win against all odds are Israel – a country he has visited and admires – and the IDF. “We have to learn from Israel how to defend our country, with every citizen”


    https://twitter.com/emilykschrader/status/1503650151742808070

    Why does he want to murder Palestinians? #CorbynKlaxon
    You're strangely obsessed with Corbyn and his mates, who have about as much influence on current events as my dog. Weird.
    I thought this "strange obsession" needed looking into, so I looked through all my recent posts.

    It turns out that, before my obsessive three (ok, now four. Damn!) posts today mentioning Corbyn, I've obsessively made two other posts this month that referred to him. One was obsessively questioning why he didn't need a translation of Zelensky's speech, and one obsessively wondering whether his closeness to Barry Gardiner (whose son was in St Petersburg at the time) meant pressure was put on him over Salisbury response.

    I don't appear to take my obsessions particularly seriously.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    CD13 said:

    Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?

    At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.

    {Dinsdale Piranha has entered the chat}

    Interviewer: Vince, after he nailed your head to the floor, did you ever see him again

    Vince: Yeah.....after that I used to go round his flat every Sunday lunchtime to apologize and we'd shake hands and then he'd nail my head to the floor

    Interviewer: Every Sunday?

    Vince: Yeah but he was very reasonable. Once, one Sunday, when my parents were coming round for tea I asked him if he'd mind very much not nailing my head to the floor that week and he agreed and just screwed my pelvis to a cake stand.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    FPT

    @emilykschrader
    Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko says his models for how to win against all odds are Israel – a country he has visited and admires – and the IDF. “We have to learn from Israel how to defend our country, with every citizen”


    https://twitter.com/emilykschrader/status/1503650151742808070

    Why does he want to murder Palestinians? #CorbynKlaxon
    You're strangely obsessed with Corbyn and his mates, who have about as much influence on current events as my dog. Weird.
    I thought this "strange obsession" needed looking into, so I looked through all my recent posts.

    It turns out that, before my obsessive three (ok, now four. Damn!) posts today mentioning Corbyn, I've obsessively made two other posts this month that referred to him. One was obsessively questioning why he didn't need a translation of Zelensky's speech, and one obsessively wondering whether his closeness to Barry Gardiner (whose son was in St Petersburg at the time) meant pressure was put on him over Salisbury response.

    I don't appear to take my obsessions particularly seriously.
    I think you are developing an obsessions about your obsessions. This can only go even more meta....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.

    However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
    "I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"

    On what do you base that?
    My first clue was the massive amounts of damage that are wrecking the infrastructure and social fabric of the country. That's not winning.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    CD13 said:

    Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?

    At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.

    I really don't think history will be kind to Frau Merkel.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    rcs1000 said:

    Given there are bugger all Yuan assets available for Saudi Arabia to own, this is basically just for show.
    In addition; surely Saudi Arabia only has another decade or two to gain all those lovely petrochemical Yuans if the plans to electrify and go green occur to schedule? Whilst there will always be a demand for oil and gas, isn't that demand going to reduce dramatically in the next few years?
    Real peak oil - when demand starts to fall, despite economic growth. In some parts of the petroleum market, that has already happened.
    I try to avoid the term 'peak oil' for the obvious reasons. ;)

    Those 'peak oil' guys (on the supply side, not demand) will never be correct now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.

    However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
    "I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"

    On what do you base that?
    My first clue was the massive amounts of damage that are wrecking the infrastructure and social fabric of the country. That's not winning.
    Though to be fair, in that part of the world, this has been described as winning -

    image
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    CD13 said:

    Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?

    At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.

    I don't think badly of Merkel, but the whole thing does show that Germany was still in 2014 when she left. Scholz has had a lot of catching up to do in not very much time, to adjust Germany to the new political reality.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Have we seen this - 5th Major-General KIA?

    🇺🇦 forces battalion Azov announced killing the commander of 🇷🇺22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade, a major general, near Mariupol. Already 5th 🇷🇺 general KIA. This unit participated in murdering more than 150 civilians in Baku in January 1989.

    https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1503693079592804360
  • No need to join NATO as it will be armed and trained by them
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    rcs1000 said:

    Given there are bugger all Yuan assets available for Saudi Arabia to own, this is basically just for show.
    In addition; surely Saudi Arabia only has another decade or two to gain all those lovely petrochemical Yuans if the plans to electrify and go green occur to schedule? Whilst there will always be a demand for oil and gas, isn't that demand going to reduce dramatically in the next few years?
    Real peak oil - when demand starts to fall, despite economic growth. In some parts of the petroleum market, that has already happened.
    I try to avoid the term 'peak oil' for the obvious reasons. ;)

    Those 'peak oil' guys (on the supply side, not demand) will never be correct now.
    Re-purposing the word is about yanking their chains.
  • CD13 said:

    Frau Merkel's timing just before she jumped ship looks poor. Casting off the nuclear option and hooking herself onto the Russian gas and oil teat was a bad move in retrospect. Cap in hand to the Middle East or having to be a bad European?

    At least France has nuclear power, and we have a North Sea full of goodies even if we resist fracking. The remnants of Extenction Rebellion can carry on nailing their heads to the motorways.

    I don't think badly of Merkel, but the whole thing does show that Germany was still in 2014 when she left. Scholz has had a lot of catching up to do in not very much time, to adjust Germany to the new political reality.
    I do think badly of Merkel and think that she's very comparable in a lot of ways to Tony Blair here.

    Inherited a nation that was set up to be doing well, rode their popularity to repeated electoral success, but didn't really achieve much of any lasting merit and with the delayed reverse Midas touch that much of what they touched turned to shit afterwards.

    The longer Merkel is out of office, the worse of a missed opportunity her tenure is going to look in retrospect, a lot like Blair.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    It looks like the postponed amphibious landing in Odessa may be back on again:

    @CovertShores
    Substantial #Russian Navy force, including landing ships, advancing on Odessa area today. Seen 09:47 UTC in satellite imagery


    image

    Are they putting on a fleet review for the visiting PMs?
  • RobD said:

    I've not been following this aspect all that closely. Is this a change in their position?
    This isn't particularly new in that Zelensky was saying similar things last week. I have no doubt this is all linked with the talks process - to the extent there is a way out of this, it will probably involve some compromises over governance of the Donbas, and Ukraine and the US giving some ground on ambition to join and willingness to admit Ukraine to NATO.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    It's impossible to predict the polls two years out, surely!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    tlg86 said:

    Statement from Boro:

    https://www.mfc.co.uk/news/a-statement-from-middlesbrough-fc

    We are aware of Chelsea's request to have Saturday's Emirates FA Cup sixth round tie played behind closed doors and find their suggestion both bizarre and without any merit whatsoever.
    All concerned are well aware of the reasons Chelsea have been sanctioned and that this has nothing to do with Middlesbrough Football Club.

    To suggest as result that MFC and our fans should be penalised is not only grossly unfair but without any foundation.

    Given the reasons for these sanctions, for Chelsea to seek to invoke sporting "integrity" as reason for the game being played behind closed doors is ironic in the extreme.

    We currently await formal notification from the FA of the next steps but rest assured MFC will resist Chelsea's actions in the strongest terms.


    Loving integrity in quotation marks. :lol:

    Lol! Brilliant.

    Someone has had great fun drafting that press release.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.

    However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
    "I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"

    On what do you base that?
    My first clue was the massive amounts of damage that are wrecking the infrastructure and social fabric of the country. That's not winning.
    Our Governments do that and we vote for them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Naval News
    @navalnewscom
    ·
    21m
    The Russian Navy is advancing on the Odessa region of Ukraine. Analysis shows that the force includes landing ships 🇷🇺🇺🇦
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    WHOA!!! :open_mouth:
    A whole new route to World War 3. Is this year the end of the American empire?
    I think it's inevitable now. The whole thing is getting too big and too chaotic to be contained.
    Er, which is inevitable? World War 3 or the End of the American Empire?

    Asking for 7 billion friends
    WW3. Sooner or later there's going to be an accident or false flag or some other incident that draws NATO in.

    However, in contrast to those doing their assessment via tractor memes, I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them. So perhaps they will collapse and the whole thing will fizzle out before The Road becomes a self-help manual.
    "I think Ukraine are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them"

    On what do you base that?
    I don't know what is happening, nor do I make confident predictions of where it will end up. But my worry is that, despite the Gospel according to Twitter (good news twitter posts), Russian troops keep on advancing inexorably without any significant Ukrainian counter-attacks.

    Until Russia stops advancing completely, or until there are significant Russian setbacks in terms of Ukrainian counter attacks, I will consider the attrition/culmination outcome as a hope, with the default expectation of eventual Russian occupation of all of Ukraine followed by a decade or so of pain for everyone.
This discussion has been closed.