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As Johnson looks securer Sunak’s next PM chances decline – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,707
edited March 2022 in General
imageAs Johnson looks securer Sunak’s next PM chances decline – politicalbetting.com

It is almost hard to credit it now but barely two months ago Chancellor Sunak looked relatively certain to be the next prime minister and the betting he money was on a change at Number 10 taking place during this year.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited March 2022
    I think Mike is very likely correct. Unless one of them goes under a bus, it'll be Starmer vs Boris.

    Not the most inspiring choice, but not the worst either (Trump or Corbyn? Bercow or Patel? would be emigration-boosting alternatives).

    The last two weeks have made me appreciate once again our ancient, imperfect democracy.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,296
    I know she's wrong that to "close the sky" doesn't involve fighting.

    I don't think that distinction matters any more.

    Liubov Tsybulska
    @TsybulskaLiubov
    Lots of killed and wounded after terrible bombing of the maternity hospital. 1170 killed civilians only in Mariupol city. We don’t ask to fight for us, just close the sky. If that’s how democracies react to RU war crimes, then something wrong with these democracies.They’re broken

    https://twitter.com/TsybulskaLiubov/status/1501613250605158402
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,804
    Looking at my BF account I've laid Bercow as next PM at average odds of 29.15. He's my worst outcome. I guess I'm safe though.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,629
    edited March 2022
    The prediction that it will be Boris v SKS at the next election is based on the fallacy that though previous hot predictions keep falling at the fences through unforeseen circumstances there won't be any future ones to disturb the current predictive status quo.

    But there will.

    However, despite all that SKS is underpriced.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Fishing said:

    I think Mike is very likely correct. Unless one of them goes under a bus, it'll be Starmer vs Boris.

    Not the most inspiring choice, but not the worst either (Trump or Corbyn? Bercow or Patel? would be emigration-boosting alternatives).

    The last two weeks have made me appreciate once again our ancient, imperfect democracy.

    recency bias there. Come autumn either we will all be irradiated to dust, or Ukraine will have resolved itself one way or the other and we will revert to thinking about wallpaper and parties and peerages for lebedevs. Pig Dog's wartime boost is anyway pretty thin stuff. GE 2024 Starmer vs a non-johnson.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,791
    The #Ukrainian Navy shared details of the operation which was aimed to destroy the modern #Russian patrol boat 'Ivan Bykov' in Black Sea two days ago. Burned out, it finally sank today. [Video + Thread⬇️] #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1501577874704379906?s=21
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,791
    Fishing said:

    I think Mike is very likely correct. Unless one of them goes under a bus, it'll be Starmer vs Boris.

    Not the most inspiring choice, but not the worst either (Trump or Corbyn? Bercow or Patel? would be emigration-boosting alternatives).

    The last two weeks have made me appreciate once again our ancient, imperfect democracy.

    Labour will be praying very hard that it continues to be "Boris"
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,029
    algarkirk said:

    The prediction that it will be Boris v SKS at the next election is based on the fallacy that though previous hot predictions keep falling at the fences through unforeseen circumstances there won't be any future ones to disturb the current predictive status quo.

    But there will.

    Nope it's based on the fact any change in Prime Minister results in 2 months of campaigning while Boris sits around doing nothing or someone else (Rabb, Baker, May) works as acting PM while 2 candidates fight to win the most votes

    And if we have an acting PM chances are the words on the betting slip makes them the winner of the bet.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,242
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Fishing said:

    I think Mike is very likely correct. Unless one of them goes under a bus, it'll be Starmer vs Boris.

    Not the most inspiring choice, but not the worst either (Trump or Corbyn? Bercow or Patel? would be emigration-boosting alternatives).

    The last two weeks have made me appreciate once again our ancient, imperfect democracy.

    Labour will be praying very hard that it continues to be "Boris"
    What if the leadership election goes wrong and they elect another IDS or Howard? Wouldn’t you throw the dice if you were Labour? Plenty of people would make better prime ministers than Boris, but how many would make more likely election winners? Fewer.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,058
    BlancheLivermore said:

    I know she's wrong that to "close the sky" doesn't involve fighting.

    I don't think that distinction matters any more.

    Liubov Tsybulska
    @TsybulskaLiubov
    Lots of killed and wounded after terrible bombing of the maternity hospital. 1170 killed civilians only in Mariupol city. We don’t ask to fight for us, just close the sky. If that’s how democracies react to RU war crimes, then something wrong with these democracies.They’re broken

    We can hardly blame them that they are not that particularly persuaded by the argument it would escalate things into a 'real' war, it being pretty darn real to them already.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,629
    edited March 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Fishing said:

    I think Mike is very likely correct. Unless one of them goes under a bus, it'll be Starmer vs Boris.

    Not the most inspiring choice, but not the worst either (Trump or Corbyn? Bercow or Patel? would be emigration-boosting alternatives).

    The last two weeks have made me appreciate once again our ancient, imperfect democracy.

    recency bias there. Come autumn either we will all be irradiated to dust, or Ukraine will have resolved itself one way or the other and we will revert to thinking about wallpaper and parties and peerages for lebedevs. Pig Dog's wartime boost is anyway pretty thin stuff. GE 2024 Starmer vs a non-johnson.
    Longing for return of the days when the lead story for days was how warm your pasty had to be before it attracted VAT. Or something.

    Could we have cones hotline back? Stupendously boring, very British. Few wars fought over them.

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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Starmer will clearly get to fight the election (barring accidents), and the only reason for the Tories to bin Boris would be a polling position that makes it look like they might lose. Therefore, logically, Starmer has to be the favourite in any next PM market, but his chances are likely to currently be underrated. So one would tend to think the thing to do would be to lay Sunak, who is surely going to take another hit at the Spring Statement.

  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    I know she's wrong that to "close the sky" doesn't involve fighting.

    I don't think that distinction matters any more.

    Liubov Tsybulska
    @TsybulskaLiubov
    Lots of killed and wounded after terrible bombing of the maternity hospital. 1170 killed civilians only in Mariupol city. We don’t ask to fight for us, just close the sky. If that’s how democracies react to RU war crimes, then something wrong with these democracies.They’re broken

    We can hardly blame them that they are not that particularly persuaded by the argument it would escalate things into a 'real' war, it being pretty darn real to them already.
    If we escalate it's not us that get nuked in the first instance, it's them.

    trick is stealthy escalation. Flood them with Starstreaks this week, revisit the MiG 29 transfer next.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,367
    edited March 2022
    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    The war will end one way or another in plenty of time to revert to other questions. Also Johnson being what he is, there is both plenty of stuff he has done which has yet to come out and plenty that he will do in future.
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    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,296
    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440
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    eekeek Posts: 25,029
    Kevin Magnussen back in F1 with Haas.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,804
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    All Russians should cry and beat their breasts in the street. If they're handy for Putin-assassination then yeah, that's better.

    All Russians. Every last sad person of your number.
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,978
    eek said:

    Kevin Magnussen back in F1 with Haas.

    A sensible move really - I preferred the hilarity of Mazepin trying to drive that car though
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,058
    eek said:

    Kevin Magnussen back in F1 with Haas.

    No Ukrainian drivers available?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,820
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,367
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    The war will end one way or another in plenty of time to revert to other questions. Also Johnson being what he is, there is both plenty of stuff he has done which has yet to come out and plenty that he will do in future.
    Yep, I agree. But my point is that for him to be sacked before the GE we need the public to focus in and tell Tory MPs (via the polls) that they'd better act or all those in marginal seats are going to lose them. There were signs of this happening with partygate tbf. So we need a take2 of that but with just a touch more anger and revulsion this time.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    This was air strikes, not shells

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/09/childrens-hospital-mariupol-destroyed-russian-air-strikes/
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,295
    edited March 2022
    A piece of diddyness too good to leave on the last thread.
    solarflare said:

    Burgessian said:

    Nicola chosen today to say that she is going ahead with IndyRef2 next year.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-confirms-plan-announce-10018461

    Yesterday, while Pres Zelensky was addressing the House of Commons, she formally offered an apology to witches persecuted in the 16th Century.

    Words fail.

    Am I missing something given the date of the article linked to here?
    Lol, those guys are on a hairtrigger of outrage!
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,844
    Russia has been using Interpol to have political dissidents overseas arrested.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/ukrainian-opera-director-yevhen-lavrenchuk-freed-italy-russia-interpol

    Another example of Putin’s criminal state using international rules based systems for its benefit.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,577
    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    It's not hard to resist indefinitely at all. The answer is just no.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    I see that the duma are now introducing bills for food, medicine and childrens' goods price controls.
    https://twitter.com/ForbesRussia/status/1501611299859574794

    Quite the 80s speedrun.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,148
    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    I don't think the no fly zone will happen, but we are going to supply more sophisticated surface to air missiles instead.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,058
    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    I don't think it will be hard to resist. The public naturally want to do something, anything, but on this issue the political leaders have been uncommonly clear and unified even so.

    Sadly, atrocities like random shelling I don't think shifts things yet further. Only a collapse in the Ukrianian defence such that direct intervention appears necessary.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,629
    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    No, that's overdone. That's what All-Weather tracks are for.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,148
    Kremlin says Putin ordered conscripts to be excluded from Ukraine operations and is now asking military prosecutors to find and punish those who allowed conscripts to go to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1501602336036331530
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,771
    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    We've already declared a no-fly zone over UK airspace. I'm not sure what the procedure would be if an Aeroflot 747 turned up, heading towards Heathrow.
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,978
    The Russian MoD has confirmed the use of the TOS-1A weapon system in Ukraine. The TOS-1A uses thermobaric rockets, creating incendiary and blast effects.

    Watch the video below for more information about this weapon and its devastating impact.

    🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine🇺🇦

    ..as Putin ramps this up, we are looking at genocide on a huge scale.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    I don't think it will be hard to resist. The public naturally want to do something, anything, but on this issue the political leaders have been uncommonly clear and unified even so.

    Sadly, atrocities like random shelling I don't think shifts things yet further. Only a collapse in the Ukrianian defence such that direct intervention appears necessary.
    I think it’s a going to start to be really hard if you’re Polish though. Hence the aircraft presumably. We have a little more separation, and the US even more.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,844
    williamglenn said:

    Kremlin says Putin ordered conscripts to be excluded from Ukraine operations and is now asking military prosecutors to find and punish those who allowed conscripts to go to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1501602336036331530

    Round up the usual suspects.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,058
    williamglenn said:

    Kremlin says Putin ordered conscripts to be excluded from Ukraine operations and is now asking military prosecutors to find and punish those who allowed conscripts to go to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1501602336036331530

    Translation - Putin said something that was not true, and for once its on a thing which matters to the Russian public, so we must now throw someone under the bus to make it seem it was not his fault.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,401
    Alphabet_Soup said:

    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    We've already declared a no-fly zone over UK airspace. I'm not sure what the procedure would be if an Aeroflot 747 turned up, heading towards Heathrow.
    It would be impounded on landing
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,820
    williamglenn said:

    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    I don't think the no fly zone will happen, but we are going to supply more sophisticated surface to air missiles instead.
    Which will be much more effective, as will continuing to build surface-to-surface capability.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Alphabet_Soup said:

    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    We've already declared a no-fly zone over UK airspace. I'm not sure what the procedure would be if an Aeroflot 747 turned up, heading towards Heathrow.
    That’s not a no fly zone.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,152
    williamglenn said:

    Kremlin says Putin ordered conscripts to be excluded from Ukraine operations and is now asking military prosecutors to find and punish those who allowed conscripts to go to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1501602336036331530

    It's OK conscripts, you can all go home now.

    Isn't that right, Putin?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,844
    Approx. 1300 civilians have died in Mariupol during the week of its blockade by Russian invaders, Petro Andryushchenko, advisor to mayor says.

    "The center of the city is no more. The hospital. The institute. This is deliberate annihilation"
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501610800426987526
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,963
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alphabet_Soup said:

    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    We've already declared a no-fly zone over UK airspace. I'm not sure what the procedure would be if an Aeroflot 747 turned up, heading towards Heathrow.
    It would be impounded on landing
    What if it contained a nuclear bomb? Surely it would have to be shot out of the skies as a potential threat.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    Russia has been using Interpol to have political dissidents overseas arrested.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/ukrainian-opera-director-yevhen-lavrenchuk-freed-italy-russia-interpol

    Another example of Putin’s criminal state using international rules based systems for its benefit.

    Interpol is totally corrupted as an orginisation now.

    It should be abolished and something new put in its place with the West actually paying attention to what is going on.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The USA should fucking call Saudi and UAE's bluff and start withdrawing their troops from the Middle East.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,620
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia has been using Interpol to have political dissidents overseas arrested.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/ukrainian-opera-director-yevhen-lavrenchuk-freed-italy-russia-interpol

    Another example of Putin’s criminal state using international rules based systems for its benefit.

    Interpol is totally corrupted as an orginisation now.

    It should be abolished and something new put in its place with the West actually paying attention to what is going on.
    This former head of Interpol would have approved

    image
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    williamglenn said:

    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    I don't think the no fly zone will happen, but we are going to supply more sophisticated surface to air missiles instead.
    I think that's absolutely right: so long as the Ukraine continues to resist, the West will supply increasingly sophisticated weapons.

    The question then becomes what disappears first: Ukrainian willingness to resist and to die, or the Russian military's willingness to keep incurring casualties. (With the added angle that Russia's supply problems are likely to keep worsening.)
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    Approx. 1300 civilians have died in Mariupol during the week of its blockade by Russian invaders, Petro Andryushchenko, advisor to mayor says.

    "The center of the city is no more. The hospital. The institute. This is deliberate annihilation"
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501610800426987526

    When are Shiogu and Gerasimov going to launch their coup? Pretty clear signal here they are both in the firing line.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    edited March 2022
    Always said Ben Foakes was overrated, he is the Rishi Sunak of cricket.

    That drop.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    Approx. 1300 civilians have died in Mariupol during the week of its blockade by Russian invaders, Petro Andryushchenko, advisor to mayor says.

    "The center of the city is no more. The hospital. The institute. This is deliberate annihilation"
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501610800426987526

    When are Shiogu and Gerasimov going to launch their coup? Pretty clear signal here they are both in the firing line.
    Sorry wrong comment replied to - it’s Putins comments re the conscripts…
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Reports of Kherson getting uglier. Russians detaining hundreds of people in their homes (start of using their kill lists?), the town is out of food, and the only humanitarian corridor involves getting deported to Russia. Hard to see any sanctions being lowered on the Putin regime, ever.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,401
    Trigger alert

    It is said Boris is so popular in Ukraine lots of babies will be named Boris

    I look forward to the predictable responses!!!!!
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,804
    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    Approx. 1300 civilians have died in Mariupol during the week of its blockade by Russian invaders, Petro Andryushchenko, advisor to mayor says.

    "The center of the city is no more. The hospital. The institute. This is deliberate annihilation"
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501610800426987526

    When are Shiogu and Gerasimov going to launch their coup? Pretty clear signal here they are both in the firing line.
    There must be adequate colonels. I don't think we want aspring corporals, but perhaps a lieutenant of artillery might choose anew.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245
    TimS said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko

    Just try and realize this.
    Russia today dropped a 1000-kilogram airbomb in downtown Mariupol.
    In a location between a hospital and birthing center.
    Just because it can.

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501617299878461440

    Ukrainians are really piling on the pressure for a no fly zone now, and it's hard to see how the west resists it indefinitely.

    It feels like the wrong answer to the right question - how do we stop Russia from indiscriminately attacking civilians. Most of the damage is being done by shells and missiles. This is like the face mask arguments in Covid. Unhealthy obsession about something with only marginal relevance.

    But it's going to be hard to resist. And once the NFZ goes in it's pan-European war, then nukes, then the end of all of us.
    Choosing between a horrific outcome and a potentially existential one is not difficult.

    The truth is we made our choice about Ukrainian civilians a long ago when we did not admit them to Nato. Specifically signalling that we were not willing to risk our troops or risk nuclear conflagration to save Ukrainian civilians.

    At that point all there was to protect them from invasion and barbarity was their conventional military deterrent (not strong enough), or sufficiently strong ex ante words from the West that they would be treated like a NATO member (not forthcoming).
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    As President and co-founder of the Start The War Coalition, the outrage at the hospital shows why Putin must either end up in The Hague or get the Heydrich/Yamamoto treatment.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,296
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always said Ben Foakes was overrated, he is the Rishi Sunak of cricket.

    That drop.

    Is he so incredibly rich so can't be bought by Russian money, unlike his predecessor the blessed by you George Osborne?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Trigger alert

    It is said Boris is so popular in Ukraine lots of babies will be named Boris

    I look forward to the predictable responses!!!!!

    They said that about Tony in Kosovo, and it was just an urban myth.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,804
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As President and co-founder of the Start The War Coalition, the outrage at the hospital shows why Putin must either end up in The Hague or get the Heydrich/Yamamoto treatment.

    Stocks - Putin belongs in stocks. I'm planning ahead and practicing my pitching of rotten peaches.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,058
    BlancheLivermore said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always said Ben Foakes was overrated, he is the Rishi Sunak of cricket.

    That drop.

    Is he so incredibly rich so can't be bought by Russian money, unlike his predecessor the blessed by you George Osborne?
    People with loads of money don't seem to be immune to shadiness at the prospect of getting even more money.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,577
    kle4 said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always said Ben Foakes was overrated, he is the Rishi Sunak of cricket.

    That drop.

    Is he so incredibly rich so can't be bought by Russian money, unlike his predecessor the blessed by you George Osborne?
    People with loads of money don't seem to be immune to shadiness at the prospect of getting even more money.
    That is extremely true, but in Sunak's case at least one would hope that he won't go weak at the knees for some Phantom of the Opera tickets or a steak dinner.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    CNN has the US administration still saying it wants to make the A/C deal come off. Fingers crossed.
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,620
    Omnium said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As President and co-founder of the Start The War Coalition, the outrage at the hospital shows why Putin must either end up in The Hague or get the Heydrich/Yamamoto treatment.

    Stocks - Putin belongs in stocks. I'm planning ahead and practicing my pitching of rotten peaches.
    I doubt it would end as it does for Jack Aubrey when he got a turn in the stocks.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
    I really don’t get the received wisdom here that he’s a busted flush. Absent anything new from the police, leading to a proper bollocking, I think he’s now safe from the party stuff and has an evens chance of winning the next election. I only think his chances of that are as low as evens because the police might yet scupper his hopes.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,671
    FPT - reply to LuckyGuy re: Biden & Patel -

    I do support Biden, gaffs & all.

    Pointing out that POTUS gets tongue-tied is hardly news, nor is it evidence of he's (to coin a phrase) a demented vegetable.

    Are those who think this an especially cogent argument, themselves slightly soft in the head?

    As for Patel, I stand corrected, neither she nor her parents were refugees thrown out of Uganda by Idi Amin. I was wrong on that point. Though perhaps the Home Sec has relatives who were refugees?

    I was still totally wrong on THAT point. Mea culpa, and thanks to LG for pointing it my unforced error.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    UK to provide world's best anti-air weapons to Ukraine. I wonder whether the Russian air force will ever really recover from the degradation in capability they will see over the next two weeks.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,791
    Nigelb said:

    Russia has been using Interpol to have political dissidents overseas arrested.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/ukrainian-opera-director-yevhen-lavrenchuk-freed-italy-russia-interpol

    Another example of Putin’s criminal state using international rules based systems for its benefit.

    Patel tried to get them kicked out:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk-will-lead-efforts-get-russia-suspended-interpol-says-minister-2022-02-28/
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,804
    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
    PMs want a legacy. Boris's jury is massively out.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    edited March 2022
    BlancheLivermore said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always said Ben Foakes was overrated, he is the Rishi Sunak of cricket.

    That drop.

    Is he so incredibly rich so can't be bought by Russian money, unlike his predecessor the blessed by you George Osborne?
    Bless, George hasn't been Chancellor for six years and an MP for five years.

    He's made more squillions at non Russian related companies.

    Honestly, Robey Warshaw don't pay minimum wage.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,577
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    FPT - reply to LuckyGuy re: Biden & Patel -

    I do support Biden, gaffs & all.

    Pointing out that POTUS gets tongue-tied is hardly news, nor is it evidence of he's (to coin a phrase) a demented vegetable.

    Are those who think this an especially cogent argument, themselves slightly soft in the head?

    As for Patel, I stand corrected, neither she nor her parents were refugees thrown out of Uganda by Idi Amin. I was wrong on that point. Though perhaps the Home Sec has relatives who were refugees?

    I was still totally wrong on THAT point. Mea culpa, and thanks to LG for pointing it my unforced error.

    It wasn't me who pointed out the error er. Patel's second generation status. And my comments were not (for a change) a pop at Biden for being gaffe-prone - I was criticising his casual assumption that black people would automatically support him, and his irate response when they didn't, because your original post reminded me of that attitude. That's not a Biden thing, it's a common 'left of centre' in politics thing. The left's client groups are their client groups, and those who go off-message are particularly despised (Patel being no exception).
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    edited March 2022
    MaxPB said:

    UK to provide world's best anti-air weapons to Ukraine. I wonder whether the Russian air force will ever really recover from the degradation in capability they will see over the next two weeks.

    World’s best? Star streak? Erm, against certain threats in certain ways maybe.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,152
    MaxPB said:

    UK to provide world's best anti-air weapons to Ukraine. I wonder whether the Russian air force will ever really recover from the degradation in capability they will see over the next two weeks.

    And please, chalk "This for the babies you bombed" on every one. I want us to nail those bastard jets that dropped weapons on that maternity ward.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,500
    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
    Objectively, the war makes Johnson a worse choice than he was before:

    - he did nothing to foresee or prepare us for this new turn of world events, instead compromising himself with his various Russian connections;
    - his performances continue to exhibit the economy with the truth, preference for presentation over content, and tendency to overpromise that were already his hallmarks;
    - being compromised adds an unhelpful dimension to accusations that the government is foot dragging on clamping down on dodgy Russian money and assets;
    - and there is surely more to come out about Johnson’s previous links with Russia and the background to Lebedev’s peerage;
    - if things escalate toward world war, who among us would want such a buffoon to still be in charge?


    Of course, in the short term, the emotional ‘rally round’ response trumps most of the above. But it won’t always be that way.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,804
    Malmesbury said:

    Omnium said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As President and co-founder of the Start The War Coalition, the outrage at the hospital shows why Putin must either end up in The Hague or get the Heydrich/Yamamoto treatment.

    Stocks - Putin belongs in stocks. I'm planning ahead and practicing my pitching of rotten peaches.
    I doubt it would end as it does for Jack Aubrey when he got a turn in the stocks.
    Fiction though it was I was pretty angry about that.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,841
    MarqueeMark said:

    williamglenn said:

    Kremlin says Putin ordered conscripts to be excluded from Ukraine operations and is now asking military prosecutors to find and punish those who allowed conscripts to go to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1501602336036331530

    It's OK conscripts, you can all go home now.

    Isn't that right, Putin?
    It may well be that is what this bunch were doing south of Kherson:

    https://twitter.com/SputnikATO/status/1501569717538017282?t=3_1lqqSv8I-Y9rI5hgF9mA&s=19
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always said Ben Foakes was overrated, he is the Rishi Sunak of cricket.

    That drop.

    Is he so incredibly rich so can't be bought by Russian money, unlike his predecessor the blessed by you George Osborne?
    Bless, George hasn't been Chancellor for six years and an MP for five years.

    He's made more squillions at non Russian related companies.

    Honestly, Robey Warshaw don't pay minimum wage.
    They don’t pay at all, apparently.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    edited March 2022
    Omnium said:

    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
    PMs want a legacy. Boris's jury is massively out.
    On that note, surely Brexit alone (whether you love or hate it) gives him a meaningful place in the history books beyond most PMs? Both the referendum before he was in power and forcing the final act in 2019. I can’t imagine anything he might do will equal that for good or ill, short of a place in WW3.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,295
    edited March 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Trigger alert

    It is said Boris is so popular in Ukraine lots of babies will be named Boris

    I look forward to the predictable responses!!!!!

    They said that about Tony in Kosovo, and it was just an urban myth.
    I'd guess that Boris and Alexander are already pretty popular names in Ukraine.
    The Boris fawners will be on high alert though.

    Edit: just checked and Oleksander has been most popular boy's name for several years. Orgasms ahead!
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited March 2022
    MaxPB said:

    UK to provide world's best anti-air weapons to Ukraine. I wonder whether the Russian air force will ever really recover from the degradation in capability they will see over the next two weeks.

    I'm not an expert, or anywhere near, but my understanding is that they require substantial training to be used effectively, unlike something like the NLAW, which is as simple as: point at russian tank for 3 seconds, wait until red recticle appears/beep and press the go button.

    On a side note, just come across this shocking interview:
    https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1500804456769798147

    Just a grandfather sheltering his family in a village with no military targets far behind the front line, and then the Russians attacked them. Turned his house into ruins, killing his 12-year-old daughter, wife, her friend, two sons-in-law and a mother-in-law. Only his grandchildren and cat survived.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,671
    williamglenn said:

    Kremlin says Putin ordered conscripts to be excluded from Ukraine operations and is now asking military prosecutors to find and punish those who allowed conscripts to go to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1501602336036331530

    Tell that to the Морская пехота России = Russian Naval Infantry
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245
    MaxPB said:

    UK to provide world's best anti-air weapons to Ukraine. I wonder whether the Russian air force will ever really recover from the degradation in capability they will see over the next two weeks.

    If they shoot down a few in the first 24 hrs with these new gizmos, won’t the Russians just go back to long range shelling instead? All a bit like modern war with aircraft carriers. Have there looking shiny but not dare risking them in the line of fire.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,024
    On topic.
    Is securer even a word? If so it ugly in print and even uglier to say.
    More secure, please.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,804
    biggles said:

    Omnium said:

    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
    PMs want a legacy. Boris's jury is massively out.
    On that note, surely Brexit alone (whether you love or hate it) gives him a meaningful place in the history books beyond most PMs? Both the referendum before he was in power and forcing the final act in 2019. I can’t imagine anything he might do will equal that for good or ill, short of a place in WW3.
    On a bight outlook - Brexit, covid, end of Putin. That's huge.

    Looking less brightly.. Brexit, covid, pontifications of Putin. Hopeless!

    Who knows.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    dixiedean said:

    On topic.
    Is securer even a word? If so it ugly in print and even uglier to say.
    More secure, please.

    It's not in my OED but it is in some American dictionaries.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,841
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Trigger alert

    It is said Boris is so popular in Ukraine lots of babies will be named Boris

    I look forward to the predictable responses!!!!!

    They said that about Tony in Kosovo, and it was just an urban myth.
    If we get a de Pfeffel though...
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,295
    Malmesbury said:

    Omnium said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As President and co-founder of the Start The War Coalition, the outrage at the hospital shows why Putin must either end up in The Hague or get the Heydrich/Yamamoto treatment.

    Stocks - Putin belongs in stocks. I'm planning ahead and practicing my pitching of rotten peaches.
    I doubt it would end as it does for Jack Aubrey when he got a turn in the stocks.
    Am I misremembering or did Surprise's crew turn out to intimidate any rock throwers?
    Perhaps Vlad would get similar from a team of KGB/FSBers.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Omnium said:

    biggles said:

    Omnium said:

    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
    PMs want a legacy. Boris's jury is massively out.
    On that note, surely Brexit alone (whether you love or hate it) gives him a meaningful place in the history books beyond most PMs? Both the referendum before he was in power and forcing the final act in 2019. I can’t imagine anything he might do will equal that for good or ill, short of a place in WW3.
    On a bight outlook - Brexit, covid, end of Putin. That's huge.

    Looking less brightly.. Brexit, covid, pontifications of Putin. Hopeless!

    Who knows.
    Quite. But either way he gets a legacy. 100 years from now he’ll be discussed even if he went tomorrow. Not all PMs get that.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always said Ben Foakes was overrated, he is the Rishi Sunak of cricket.

    That drop.

    Is he so incredibly rich so can't be bought by Russian money, unlike his predecessor the blessed by you George Osborne?
    Bless, George hasn't been Chancellor for six years and an MP for five years.

    He's made more squillions at non Russian related companies.

    Honestly, Robey Warshaw don't pay minimum wage.
    They don’t pay at all, apparently.
    Well they do, I think Sir Simon was the highest paid banker in 2021.

    Edit - They are an LLP so may be paid out via dividends, I think they only have a dozen employees.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,500
    edited March 2022
    biggles said:

    Omnium said:

    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
    PMs want a legacy. Boris's jury is massively out.
    On that note, surely Brexit alone (whether you love or hate it) gives him a meaningful place in the history books beyond most PMs? Both the referendum before he was in power and forcing the final act in 2019. I can’t imagine anything he might do will equal that for good or ill, short of a place in WW3.
    Omnium surely meant, a good legacy?

    Cutting ourselves out of the European mainstream looks even more foolish now than it did before.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Trigger alert

    It is said Boris is so popular in Ukraine lots of babies will be named Boris

    I look forward to the predictable responses!!!!!

    They said that about Tony in Kosovo, and it was just an urban myth.
    I'd guess that Boris and Alexander are already pretty popular names in Ukraine.
    The Boris fawners will be on high alert though.

    Edit: just checked and Oleksander has been most popular boy's name for several years. Orgasms ahead!
    Orgasms whilst wailing they want Boris Johnson gone.

    A whole new pleasure/pain thing.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dixiedean said:

    On topic.
    Is securer even a word? If so it ugly in print and even uglier to say.
    More secure, please.

    It's not in my OED but it is in some American dictionaries.
    Quite.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,401
    IanB2 said:

    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
    Objectively, the war makes Johnson a worse choice than he was before:

    - he did nothing to foresee or prepare us for this new turn of world events, instead compromising himself with his various Russian connections;
    - his performances continue to exhibit the economy with the truth, preference for presentation over content, and tendency to overpromise that were already his hallmarks;
    - being compromised adds an unhelpful dimension to accusations that the government is foot dragging on clamping down on dodgy Russian money and assets;
    - and there is surely more to come out about Johnson’s previous links with Russia and the background to Lebedev’s peerage;
    - if things escalate toward world war, who among us would want such a buffoon to still be in charge?


    Of course, in the short term, the emotional ‘rally round’ response trumps most of the above. But it won’t always be that way.
    If we are being honest we have no way of knowing but it is certain the war has changed everything dramatically from dealing with the economic fallout, the need to recommission oil and gas in the UK in transition, demands for investment in the NHS and now defence when there is no money

    All political parties will have to tear up their plans pre Putin's war and formulate a whole new policy offer
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    boulayboulay Posts: 3,996
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    UK to provide world's best anti-air weapons to Ukraine. I wonder whether the Russian air force will ever really recover from the degradation in capability they will see over the next two weeks.

    If they shoot down a few in the first 24 hrs with these new gizmos, won’t the Russians just go back to long range shelling instead? All a bit like modern war with aircraft carriers. Have there looking shiny but not dare risking them in the line of fire.
    Time for Zelensky to announce a 24 hour amnesty on Russian artillery troops for them to surrender or desert.

    After the 24 hours there will be a bounty on their heads, they will be proactively targeted during and after the war and no quarter given in any engagement.

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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    IanB2 said:

    biggles said:

    Omnium said:

    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't want it to become received wisdom that Johnson has been saved by the war. He could still be ditched before the GE. I don't think so but he might be. It depends on the polls. Plus he might not have been ditched in any case. Lying to parliament, breaking Covid laws, generally being corrupt, this clearly isn't enough for Tory MPs. It would have depended on the polls. Common thread - the polls.

    It almost seems bad taste discussing our party politics in the current situation but here is an idle thought. If Ukraine situation is resolved in next 12 months then Johnson will decide to go rather than risk being ousted or losing the election having decided he has enough for his 3 volume memoirs?
    PMs want a legacy. Boris's jury is massively out.
    On that note, surely Brexit alone (whether you love or hate it) gives him a meaningful place in the history books beyond most PMs? Both the referendum before he was in power and forcing the final act in 2019. I can’t imagine anything he might do will equal that for good or ill, short of a place in WW3.
    Omnium surely meant, a good legacy?
    Yes, but whatever else he does that judgement will be shaped by views on Brexit only. For those that hate it, he’ll never redeem himself. For those that wanted it, they’ll always be grateful.
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245
    https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1501606149191311364?s=21

    “Bombing of maternity hospital in Ukraine is a Putin prod to the West to overreach and eg enforce a no-fly-zone. Don’t fall for it - the plan (sanctions, isolation, arms shipments) is working. Stick with it.

    A no-fly-zone as well as being a provocation helps Putin with his domestic audience because it helps him frame the conflict as an existential clash with the west.

    The fact that Putin’s major audience is his domestic one tells us a huge amount.

    NB West needs to think about and signal clearly about what its response will be to chemical weapons use in Ukraine.

    This is the major danger now.”
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    What if for Putin, this crisis has never just been about Ukraine, what if he actually wants to provoke NATO?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    Aircraft flying near the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and near Finland’s eastern border with Russia have noticed interference with their GPS signals, according to Finnish authorities.

    The interference began soon after Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö met Joe Biden in Washington on Saturday to discuss deepening defense ties between Finland and Nato due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

    Prime Minister Sanna Marin told Reuters she had no information about the source of the disturbances, nor about whether they originated in Russia, while the foreign ministry said it was looking into the events.

    “If they would be caused by outside influence, it would surely be said publicly,” Marin said.

    The Kremlin did not immediately reply to a request for comment about the reported interference.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/finland-gps-disturbances-aircrafts-russia?

    As I noted on Saturday we need to invade Kaliningrad to secure peace in Europe.
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