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What to do with a cornered rat. – politicalbetting.com
What to do with a cornered rat. – politicalbetting.com
Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/qvIdv8Pe91
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There's no sign Putin feels like his power is threatened; If he thought he was losing, it's not obvious why he couldn't negotiate a face-saving settlement and withdraw while staying on in Russia; He can say whatever he wants and the media will repeat it, and it was only supposed to be a "special operation" so there's nothing wrong with not conquering the whole country. If he hasn't cut his losses, it's because he doesn't think he's lost. And since his army seems to make a little bit of progress every day on the map even as I scroll through my timeline full of little Ukrainian victories I wouldn't like to jump to any conclusions about the eventual military outcome.
Given that he's apparently paranoid about an imaginary threat from NATO, it's kind of ridiculous to think he'd trust Western countries to let him retire to a little place in Syria, rather than - say - helping complete the overthrow of Assad in Syria and letting a mob give him the Muammar Gaddafi treatment.
But I admit disagree with the rest.
But in a way, no.
Putin's regime has spent two decades demolishing press freedoms in Russia. The media has slowly become the regime's mouthpiece - or else. Therefore much of the Russian public is fed Putin's worldview, and not any opposing view.
A cat, terrier, or flamethrower would all seem appropriate options.
Ban him from Parliament for life? I presume we're talking of Bercow
Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388?s=21
I hope they doesn't succeed. The sanctions need to remain.
Not quite sure that Spring has sprung, but it's beginning to look as though it might have.
How 'loyal' are Putin's generals going to be faced, faced with decreasing supplies? If, indeed, that is the situation.
I disagree with some of the first though. We don't know how threatened he feels (the Western Intel seems to have dried up) but, from a common sense standpoint, it is clearly not going well for him as (1) his troops were supplied for a limited number of days with no clear back-up suggesting they were thinking of a clear victory (2) he can no longer rely on Belarus for military support at least given the use of Belarussian troops has not happened (3) even using the independent numbers on who has lost what, a large proportion of Russian losses appear to be abandoned / captured, which suggests low morale (4) the map tells you that there has been little progress and (5) the economy is clearly suffering, especially with a lack of goods.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/sanctions-vladimir-putin-kremlin-russian-oligarchy
Russian oligarchs will not put pressure on Putin, not now and not anytime soon. They stay silent, even as they watch their assets and fortunes dwindle. We should have expected this. The west misunderstands the concept of oligarchy in modern Russia, which leaves these powerful actors more beholden to the state – or president – than any outside influence, and prevents the jet-set tycoons we see in the western media from wielding real political power.
https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1501321502469230593
The family of ex London bus driver Yakiv Voloshchuk were twice detained by UK Border Force officials in Calais, made 8 trips to the UK visa centre in Paris, 2 trips to the UK consulate and 1 trip to the UK embassy before being allowed to travel to UK
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/ukrainian-family-describe-trauma-of-uk-visa-processing
Not, I think, that she will! Or be sacked.
I'm meeting with some friends from the Witham u3a tomorrow to discuss 'current affairs'. Sadly, from the point of a sensible discussion, none of us voted for her.
Either she is a flat out liar like the PM, or massively incompetent. Or both.
It is interesting how he never says shit about Turkey who are providing more help than anybody outside the US. TuAF have regular A400M movements between Ankara and Rzesow in Poland to bring more TB2s and MAM-Ls.
https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elections/presidentielle/emmanuel-macron-gagne-8-5-points-dans-les-intentions-de-vote-au-premier-tour-selon-un-sondage-elabe_VN-202203080667.html
I thought Ben Wallace was excellent about this yesterday.
Now I suspect your typical Russian mine doesn't use a just in time repair system but that probably only gives them a few months rather than a few weeks.
Not that it matters if Russia is refusing to export things to the West..
China wasn't prosecuting a war of aggression which it was in danger of losing. Nor was its economy collapsing as a result of western sanctions.
And there was no real opposition within the existing state structure (Navalny and his followers).
That is, he's in the low 30s, and his lead is a consequence of him facing the seven dwarves.
An expedition in Antarctica has found the shipwreck of Endurance, the ship which carried Ernest Shackleton and his crew into disaster in 1915. #Endurance22 https://twitter.com/HackBlackburn/status/1501452732238123012/photo/1
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/1aade802-9f29-11ec-b38e-10b333e9179b?shareToken=7bd1edcb6fb2bb3d2e69e5101efe21a4
Carlotta's link is about the extreme vulnerability of the Russian economy to sanctions as a result of its criminal/oligarchical structure.
The most powerful oligarchs are thugs like Putin, and their futures tied to him.
#Endurance22 https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1501455797766733825/photo/1
On the positive side a client my daughter was helping through her charity work got refugee status yesterday. He and his family were here from Aleppo (seriously). It took the system more than 2 years to give him that status which allows him to work. In Syria he was a qualified doctor. Everyone loses from a system like that.
Standards apply equally or they are not standards.
The Russian economy will collapse AND Putin isn't afraid of any oligarchs - they are afraid of him and are anyway a bunch of gangsters. But still their assets should be seized.
Maybe there's a remote chance the Russian military will say "enough is enough, we have achieved our objectives of securing the breakaway republics and Crimea, but Putin has become mentally ill - ordering us to shell our fellow Russians in Ukraine and threatening nuclear holocaust so we've put him under house arrest. And by the way, we just found out he's been stealing billions from the Russian people which we will give back to you". No doubt a fantasy.
Friends over the border are reporting that panic buying has literally emptied supermarkets, and the availability of foreign goods as basically stopped. The banking system is under considerable pressure as people try to retrieve whatever cash they can get. Hard currency has disappeared from the banking system and a black market for hard currency offers rates for cash that are way below whatever official market rates may be. Industry is discovering just how integrated into western supply chains that Russia is. In a matter of maybe three months large chunks of Russian industry will no longer be able to function.
It is only now that the majority of Russians are beginning to sense that there is something seriously wrong. The Russian media continues to push the propaganda bullshit of the regime, but rumours of horrific losses are beginning to cut through, albeit very slowly.
In Tallinn, Blinken came last night and continued to make the point that any attack in this direction would be answered with full force. In fact the Baltic now feels like a pretty safe place to be and neither does it feel like the "West Berlin" of Richard Milnes piece in the FT today. More troops and air cover are coming, and in any event the nearest viable Russian attack force is over a thousand miles away.
We are bedding down for a long crisis, with preparations for long stays for the Ukrainian refugees, it will be a struggle to cope with large numbers, given that the population of Estonia is only 1.3 million. Yet, the country has come together, with even the Russian speakers now recognising that Putin is our collective enemy. The horror at the barbaric actions of the Russian army is deeply felt, and Ukrainian colours are everywhere.
This crisis might last quite a while. The popularity of the PM, Kaja Kallas, has rocketed and many have said to me how relieved they are that she is in charge. All the attempts by Putinist subversion to promote the populist right wing over the past few years have come to nothing.
Estonia is ready to deal with whatever next this crisis throws up.
Some might feel a line has been crossed sooner, but the same defenses would be trotted out. Hearsay, its opponents complaining, not the time for this, learned their lesson, take your pick.
This is more of a problem for the "good guys"; no one expects the Tories to be saints (especially this iteration).
Putin is under no threat from his close circle. But that doesn't mean there isn't the remotest threat to him.
He now has little control over how the economy fares, or over how many Russian mothers' sons die in his war.
On the general point, how many 'Windrush' cases have been satisfactorily dealt with?
Talk of riot in Poland as they are locked out of a warm office and queue in freezing weather. French families providing accommodation in Calais. France providing free transport from Calais to Paris to get to the office for visas that we couldn't be arsed to set up for them locally. I am so embarrassed. It is not as if there can be many related to British nationals and presumably easy to prove.
How anyone thought that an organisation with that mindset was going to wave Ukranians through bewilders me.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-embassy-staff-diplomats-uk-b2031024.html
Lord Lisvane described Bercow's reaction as hysterical petulance, which seems right. Such histrionic self martyrdom. Classic response of a bully.
If that is what it took, I'd not object to our making such a deal, even if a date with the ICC would better suit natural justice.
0. Refugees may apply to pick our fruit, tweets immigration minister
1. Of course we aren't taking refugees like the EU says Raaaaab - they are close, we are far away. Yet Ireland took 3,500% more than we did in that initial phase
2. Ukrainian refugees are declared as are a security threat to Britain if they travel to Ireland and then onwards to the UK via the system set up by the Tories for that very purpose
3. Patel says we are opening up safe lanes for refugees
4. Johnson says we are not opening up safe lanes for refugees
5. Patel says we will open up a humanitarian route to Britain for refugees.
6. Johnson says we are not opening up a humanitarian route to Britain for refugees
7. Patel says we have a "very generous" visa processing scheme in Calais (cue Leon screaming WHY ARE THEY GOING TO CALAIS - VERY SUSPICIOUS!!!)
8. Downing Street admits there is no such thing in Calais
9. We put up posters in Calais saying "no visas here, go away"
10. Patel says we would like to offer visas in Calais, "we are planning one" and invites refugees to call the "free application hotline"
11. Which only works if you are already in the UK and isn't free
12. Patel invites refugees to go Paris or Brussels
13. Patel insists reports that we have not let in hardly any refugees is wrong. Then confirms that we have let in hardly any refugees
But be rest assured, the Big Dog lies that our unique "scheme" is world-leading.
In the real world our actions are shaming and a disgrace. Uniquely we refuse to let refugees seek sanctuary in our country, lie about it, have desperate women and children going up and down seeking visas they can't get.
Seriously, why are you providing succour to this disgrace?
“For scientific discovery, give me Scott; for speed and efficiency of travel, give me Amundsen; but when you are in a hopeless situation, when you are seeing no way out, get down on your knees and pray for Shackleton”
So, the right cheering the downfall of the Bully Bercow. Do the same rules apply to the Bully Patel and we now expect her dismissal? If not dismissed for having been found to be a bully, can we have her dismissed for lying to the House about her visa processing centre in Calais, then lying to the house in response to her lies about it?
No? Standards aren't what they used to be.
In all the darkness happening at the minute, that is something truly brilliant.
It also implies that “damaging” Ukraine may be sufficient - conquest not necessary
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1501040257004818434
A coup is possible, perhaps but Putin seems to have worked hard to prevent alternative centres of power from existing.
A popular uprising, then? For all that the protests by Russians against the war are admirable and courageous, it seems to be a minority position. It could take years of war to change that.
There seem to me to be broadly two scenarios.
1. An early end to the war is possible at any time, when Putin decides he is happy to bank his gains. For example, this might happen as soon as Mariupol is taken, and the land bridge to Crimea secured. The Ukraine left under Ukrainian control is largely shattered by the war. To what extent does the West provide support to rebuild Ukraine, when round 3 of the conflict could kick off at any time?
2. The war might drag on for a very long time. This seems most likely to result in a Russian defeat, on the assumption that Ukraine is receiving more war material from the West than Russia is able to produce for itself. But this defeat would be akin to the German defeat in WWI - a defeat only on foreign land. It's a defeat that wounds Russia, leaving it to tend its grievances, and to come back later to seek revenge. And the destruction to Ukraine is all the greater.
I struggle to see a good ending. We are likely, soon, to see the number of refugees who have left Ukraine exceed 4 million, and keep increasing. At this point there will be fewer than 40 million people left in Ukraine. Will the country ever recover to have a population greater than 40 million again?
Remember in the world we live, the terrorists of NI are specifically protected from prosecution - because they have made it clear that is the one thing that would get them away from their 6 figure salaries and back to the Armalites... The occasionally exception is jailed for an old offence - those are the ones that don't have friends anymore.
What is one more deal with one more devil?
The problem is getting him to take such an "out" - he will, following the pattern of all such leaders, have got to the stage of identifying himself with the State. The destruction of Putin, according to Putin, will mean the destruction of Russia.
In a way, it is true. The Greater Russia he and his ilk propose cannot live in peace with it's neighbours - the whole point of GR is that it doesn't live in *peace* with its neighbours. More, that they live in fear.
It is quite clear that the acceptable results, for the West (and probably Ukraine) are either Russia gives up it's Imperial ambitions in Ukraine, or that Ukraine is given military guarantees. These guarantees would have to be of the level of what Israel gets from the US.
To a Greater Russian Nationalist, either situation is unacceptable. So, the price of peace is the end of Greater Russian Nationalism dominating Russian politics.....
Threats of murder are something - when they come from retired senior military, that is something again....
Not the first time the West has been dangerously complacent.