I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
Is there not some logic to the opposite view? If Ukraine sign up to that compromise deal, we can all be at peace from tomorrow. It will save many lives for the future. We can make an argument for that?
Too much for Ukraine to surrender? You can’t trust Putin? Can’t give in to aggression?
In my opinion Putin sought a lot more than that outcome two weeks ago, before his disastrous military belly flop in front the laughing world and NATO note taking. He’s the one desperate for a ceasefire and withdraw to a new DMZ.
No Putin. Different Russia, turning its back on all that and wanting to show its distancing from this disaster, Putin’s barbarity, means this deal that saved lives by stopping the war is actually a deal junked for a better one for Ukraine.
On Putin’s terms only whilst there is Putin, is an argument with some logic to it?
If you are asking me to choose this horror on Ukrainians and their deaths must continue in order to remove Putin, I can’t choose that today, especially as I am in warm pyjamas on my new expensive sofa in a warm flat in Chelsea eating fresh fruit salad whilst they are suffering and turning up with faces set in horror on the borders - as Zellinskyy said they should be ploughing and sowing right now, and not just to feed themselves, not fighting and dying - at some point have to give peace a chance to resolve this?
What makes you think that a 'peace' based on Russia's demands will in any way be lasting? They weaken Ukraine, and it will be easy for Russia to 'justify' another intervention in six months or a year - when they've got their act somewhat together.
The Russian proposals do not stop the war. Putin still wants power over the countries to the west of Russia.
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
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You have an absolute heart of gold Blanchey! 💖💖💖💖💖
Are there charities on the borders who need volunteers you can help?
Thank you Jade
I've offered help to a couple of charities, but been told I can best do that by donating and encouraging others to.
I wonder how his current party's leader will deal with it.
Sacks him
I would expect so. But it reflects pretty badly on SKS for accepting Bercow when he was known to be under investigation for this.
He’s a mere party member. He has no role in the party. He’s not a Labour councillor or peer or MP. While his actions should disqualify him from formal roles, is it appropriate for party membership to be policed in the manner you suggest?
They changed policy a few years before the referendum when they discovered how badly their anti-NATO policy was polling. They still don't accept that NATO is a nuclear alliance. Window-dressing really.
Privately, I suspect most Nats would prefer to be like Rep of Ireland, neutral, virtue-signalling about evils of nukes, while sheltering under the umbrella of big bad nuclear-armed Atlantic alliance.
Russia has £26 trillion in the UK, and only £40 billion in the EU? I don't believe it.
I don't either but there is a big difference between the UK and EU.
Thing is, it's not just about sanctions. Money laundering is a major service offering from the City of London, a centre of excellence if you will. It's how you might target particular Russian actors without undermining a whole industry that pretends not to speak its name.
The UK National debt is £2.2 trillion.
The US National bet is £30 trillion dollars
So according to the above figure, Russia has money in the UK equal to the American National Debt and 10x the UK National debt.
Er..... no.
Someone is counting the face value of derivatives or some such - or maybe just horseshit.
The EU number is equally silly, the other way - less than 30 days of payments for oil and gas from the EU countries...
Some bonds allow for this, some don't. Unclear which are up next week.
"Some of Russia's foreign sovereign bonds do allow payments in roubles. That's a potential problem for holders of credit-default swaps (CDS), which are derivatives that insure against defaults.
JPMorgan Chase & Co strategists led by Trang Nguyen say that the optionality to pay in roubles "may render these bonds out of scope for CDS as 'obligations' and 'deliverable obligations'", because the rouble is the domestic currency of the issuer, and it just so happens to not be a hard currency, such as the US dollar or euro. "This means that bonds with rouble fallback provisions can neither trigger CDS nor be delivered into CDS," Nguyen said in e-mailed comments on Sunday.
They changed policy a few years before the referendum when they discovered how badly their anti-NATO policy was polling. They still don't accept that NATO is a nuclear alliance. Window-dressing really.
Privately, I suspect most Nats would prefer to be like Rep of Ireland, neutral, virtue-signalling about evils of nukes, while sheltering under the umbrella of big bad nuclear-armed Atlantic alliance.
Ireland can get away with it because they were independent well before this issue came up. Getting rid of the nukes from Scotland is a key part of the independence movement. Of course, the awkward NATO question is unavoidable for the SNP.
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
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Wow well done you for giving it a go. As for your doc's prognosis - anyone can die of exposure was he making it as a general comment on the weather out there or had you shown him your kit bag containing a pair of dessies and a t-shirt.
I've got almost no body fat. And I've got very little muscle under that. I'd apparently need a couple of extra layers of clothing just to be as well insulated as an average sized weakling. I don't know if it's actually true, or just part of a concerted (and probably sensible) effort to dissuade me from getting involved.
Perhaps for the best. Although your desire to volunteer is commendable.
I've been training at an MMA gym for a few years now, and one thing it's taught me (including a hard lesson involving a few broken bones) is how fragile the human body is... as well as just how bad I am at fighting. And this is just sparring with people who want to help me get fit and healthy, not a fight to the death with some frightened 19 year old conscript who doesn't speak my language. Every class I take is a lesson in humility and an awareness of my own limitations.
I'd definitely recommend an MMA or boxing gym though, if you want to get to "fighting fitness" and learn a bit more about your body.
I wonder how his current party's leader will deal with it.
Sacks him
I would expect so. But it reflects pretty badly on SKS for accepting Bercow when he was known to be under investigation for this.
He’s a mere party member. He has no role in the party. He’s not a Labour councillor or peer or MP. While his actions should disqualify him from formal roles, is it appropriate for party membership to be policed in the manner you suggest?
I think a different standard applies to party members who have a highly visible public profile, particularly if it results from their previous career in politics - it's a special case and it's hard to see how a party can support his continued membership without giving a message that they don't consider the behaviour to be unacceptable. I suppose it could set a precedent that anyone disciplined for bullying by their employer should be barred from membership of a political party, and it's hard to see how that would work in the real world; that seems quite a theoretical problem which doesn't change the what the party leadership should do in this case.
It is very upsetting. Hearing the examples is heartbreaking. Our civil service ability to adapt is a disgrace. Tory MPs getting stuck in, but I suspect it will make no difference.
So, is the Polish planes to Ukraine not happening now ☹️
I just heard Ben Wallace saying he’s blocked it?
He was on R4 this morning saying that the matter was entirely up to the Poles. Which it is (along with the US and their willingness to rapidly supply replacement aircraft).
The last thing I saw on this is that the US is trying to setup a 3 way deal - the Poles give the Ukrainians the Mig 29s, and other allies contribute/lend spare fighters until the planed replacements for the Polish Migs arrive.
All of which could be sorted out pretty quickly if the will was there to provide the Ukrainians with the capacity to maintain an effective air force in the face of losses. The fact that this is being so drawn out suggests that the unwillingness of NATO to get involved in the air extends to indirect support and well beyond opposition to a no fly zone.
Well, you have the fact that
- The only vaguely suitable aircraft are Mig29s - The Polish ones have been upgraded with Western electronics - So training issues, security issues - There is also an escalation issue if shot down - The Poles won't want a gap in their airforce - The aircraft that the Poles can use now are either Mig29s or F16 C/D models - They have F35 on order, but they may not have any pilots trained to use them - So to replace the Polish MIgs would require, probably, F16s of the right model. C/D is quite ancient.
Is one reason the West don't want a no-fly zone that they don't want the Russians looking at our latest kit (In the event of crashes etc)?
More important is that a no-fly zone involve the West shooting down Russian aircraft and destroying Russia SAMs system - in Russia.
A no fly-zone is direct, real war with Russia. You might as well declare war and do it properly.
Hence why everyone went WTF when Hilary Clinton pushed for one in Syria....
I agree. To announce a no fly zone is to declare we are at War with Russia, as you say no commander of Air Force will send their people up there to die, the first part of no fly zone is hitting Russian radar on the ground, in Belarus and their own territory, and anti aircraft systems they now have on ground in Ukraine, that’s the only way to enforce it.
But I also agree with what Phil is posting, I don’t know to what extent UK talked up the Polish planes to Ukraine deal, but whoever is briefing our defence sec is pouring cold water over it. Having talked it up, you won’t get talking down from US and Poland, just silence if the western powers and NATO have knocked the ideal on its head - making Poland airforce on air and ground too much of a target as too much provocation to mad in head Putin,
my original post is right isn’t it, they have knocked it on the head ☹️
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
Слава України
Wow well done you for giving it a go. As for your doc's prognosis - anyone can die of exposure was he making it as a general comment on the weather out there or had you shown him your kit bag containing a pair of dessies and a t-shirt.
I've got almost no body fat. And I've got very little muscle under that. I'd apparently need a couple of extra layers of clothing just to be as well insulated as an average sized weakling. I don't know if it's actually true, or just part of a concerted (and probably sensible) effort to dissuade me from getting involved.
Perhaps for the best. Although your desire to volunteer is commendable.
I've been training at an MMA gym for a few years now, and one thing it's taught me (including a hard lesson involving a few broken bones) is how fragile the human body is... as well as just how bad I am at fighting. And this is just sparring with people who want to help me get fit and healthy, not a fight to the death with some frightened 19 year old conscript who doesn't speak my language. Every class I take is a lesson in humility and an awareness of my own limitations.
I'd definitely recommend an MMA or boxing gym though, if you want to get to "fighting fitness" and learn a bit more about your body.
I do boxing too. That plus swimming is my main exercise. But I only go up against a bag and even then I often lose.
If you even think about joining NATO we will invade you. If you are in NATO we probably won't. Therefore, please stop wanting to join NATO.
8n the future, the EU will have its own defence force, that could defend RUkraine. Of course, I don't see how that's any better for Russia. But I suppose it won't be lead by the US or include the UK. So perhaps its more palatable.
I expect the UK will be very much part of the EU defence planning and indeed a closer relationship all round
I doubt it, and I most certainly hope not. An independent army is an essential feature of a free country.
So Scotland isn't a free country?
Most certainly is NOT. We are ruled by bour much bigger neighbour who will not let us be independent or join the EU. Strange parallels with just the bombs missing.
Your absurdity is barely exceeded these days by your language. The only people stopping Scottish independence are Scottish voters.
How does that work? Scottish voters just turned out in record numbers to vote in a national election to elect a record number of pro-independence MSPs. And are being told no by the Essicks Massiv, that however we vote we can't have it.
A 'once in a generation vote'.
That is a bare faced lie, show me where in the Edinburgh agreement that was written, and do not give me the bollox fact that Salmond said on a broadcast that it was a once in ageneration chance. BARE FACED LIE.
It was in the Scottish Government’s prospectus “Scotland’s Future”.
In black and white.
Written down.
Not some “off the cuff” remark in a TV interview as some of the more credulous Nats like to claim.
The only two references to 'once in a generation' in the document are:
(If a vote is No) ' A once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation, is lost.' (Preface - anonymous).
and
'a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way.' (Foreword - Alex Salmond).
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
As Putin is so sure of himself and his actions in freeing Ukraine from the shackles of Nazi rule, maybe the Ukrainians should demand that Putin, his Generals and assorted Ministers attend The Hague, after all that is not a lot to ask as they know they are innocent and doing a job to save the Ukrainians. There can be no grounds for Putin to reject this request and continue the war.
I think making the second / third / fourth tier below Putin think they have no future in the world would be a good move. Make them think they will be prisoners in Russia, in hiding from the consequences of the actions of Putin in fear of arrest and trial, knowing any vision they had of travel or respectability is gone..
Make it personal
The case before the international court is just the first of many steps in that, but having at least one of Putin's excuses ruled out of order would be a start.
The prima facie evidence of war crimes is clear, and it is likely that those in identifiable roles in their commission will have to fear extradition to the Hague from quite a large number of countries.
It is very upsetting. Hearing the examples is heartbreaking. Our civil service ability to adapt is a disgrace. Tory MPs getting stuck in, but I suspect it will make no difference.
PS Steve Brine very angry.
Incidents like this will occur and reoccur so long as the leadership is only interested in presentation and posturing and not in delivery.
The weather is getting very cold, -8 and very cold winds here. I think it is even colder in Kyiv, and the Russian troops have been out in the open for nearly a month.
We are packing in refugees where ever space can be found, and several thousand have arrived in Tallinn in the past couple of days. Schools, places to stay and jobs are being found for those that need them. Estonia has also quietly sent even more kit to the Ukrainian army.
The Russian Embassy has suffered at least one bomb threat, but although feelings are running high in Estonia, the natural taciturnity of the Estonians means that there is little to show, beyond a burning contempt on all sides for those who have ordered the shelling.
There is a certain satisfaction at the state of the Russian forces and a growing hope that the Ukrainians can begin to push back against the invaders. Borders are still busy as more Russians try to leave. The situation in Russia is not good and friends in St. Petersburg report the break down of most financial services. Despite the heavy crackdown, quite a few Russians seem to know what has happened and are as horrified as the rest of us.
Putin is clinging on, but with rumours about his health spreading, one wonders who would want to stay with the sinking ship. We hope and pray here, but it really feels like Russia is on the brink of a major disaster. I think defeat for the invaders has become a real possibility and the blowback into Russia will end the country we have known. Collapse, revolution, civil war, who knows? Still we feel that we are very far from the end of this crisis.
It is very upsetting. Hearing the examples is heartbreaking. Our civil service ability to adapt is a disgrace. Tory MPs getting stuck in, but I suspect it will make no difference.
PS Steve Brine very angry.
The failure is with ministers who have failed to decide on their policy and oversee its implementation, while pretending things were already happening if it was convenient to make those claims for the purpose of an interview or to deal with parliamentary questions. There are issues with the Home Office, but those are a product of the instructions of successive Home Secretaries, not a product the choices of the civil service.
On the "Kirovohrad highway" in Mykolaiv Oblast, the Russian troops gunned down a shift of female teachers of an orphanage, who were going to work in a minibus, killing 3, wounding 2, reported Anna Zamazeyeva, the head of the Mykolaiv regional council. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501185101954228226
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
Is there not some logic to the opposite view? If Ukraine sign up to that compromise deal, we can all be at peace from tomorrow. It will save many lives for the future. We can make an argument for that?
Too much for Ukraine to surrender? You can’t trust Putin? Can’t give in to aggression?
In my opinion Putin sought a lot more than that outcome two weeks ago, before his disastrous military belly flop in front the laughing world and NATO note taking. He’s the one desperate for a ceasefire and withdraw to a new DMZ.
No Putin. Different Russia, turning its back on all that and wanting to show its distancing from this disaster, Putin’s barbarity, means this deal that saved lives by stopping the war is actually a deal junked for a better one for Ukraine.
On Putin’s terms only whilst there is Putin, is an argument with some logic to it?
If you are asking me to choose this horror on Ukrainians and their deaths must continue in order to remove Putin, I can’t choose that today, especially as I am in warm pyjamas on my new expensive sofa in a warm flat in Chelsea eating fresh fruit salad whilst they are suffering and turning up with faces set in horror on the borders - as Zellinskyy said they should be ploughing and sowing right now, and not just to feed themselves, not fighting and dying - at some point have to give peace a chance to resolve this?
What makes you think that a 'peace' based on Russia's demands will in any way be lasting? They weaken Ukraine, and it will be easy for Russia to 'justify' another intervention in six months or a year - when they've got their act somewhat together.
The Russian proposals do not stop the war. Putin still wants power over the countries to the west of Russia.
I agree. But On Putin’s terms only whilst there is Putin, is an argument with some logic to it.
If you knew for certain, in one’s year time, there’s no Putin, Different Russia, turning its back on all that and wanting to show its distancing from this disaster, Putin’s barbarity, means this deal that saved lives by stopping the war is actually a deal junked for a better one for Ukraine - you would sign that deal this afternoon wouldn’t you?
So what are you saying - this horror this killing ground, this meat blender must keep putting Ukrainians in it until Putin is defeated?
Yes, I can’t say to you, I guarantee, take my path and Putin is gone in a year, and Ukraine and Russia have friendly deals again.
But neither can you. Where is your path possibly taking us, probably taking us?
They changed policy a few years before the referendum when they discovered how badly their anti-NATO policy was polling. They still don't accept that NATO is a nuclear alliance. Window-dressing really.
Privately, I suspect most Nats would prefer to be like Rep of Ireland, neutral, virtue-signalling about evils of nukes, while sheltering under the umbrella of big bad nuclear-armed Atlantic alliance.
Yet the PB Unionist experts were proclaiming loudly that their policy was against NATO. Who would have known we have fake Scottish experts on here.
Its the reverse of the default of 1998, when Rouble bonds defaulted and hard currency ones largely did not. However, while it keeps the Rouble transfer system intact, it kills any further access to forex.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
Is there not some logic to the opposite view? If Ukraine sign up to that compromise deal, we can all be at peace from tomorrow. It will save many lives for the future. We can make an argument for that?
Too much for Ukraine to surrender? You can’t trust Putin? Can’t give in to aggression?
In my opinion Putin sought a lot more than that outcome two weeks ago, before his disastrous military belly flop in front the laughing world and NATO note taking. He’s the one desperate for a ceasefire and withdraw to a new DMZ....
What evidence do you have that Putin is prepared to cease waging war and withdraw to a DMZ ?
There is certainly nothing even vaguely approaching such a suggestion from Russia. For now, they demand a Ukrainian ceasefire, and Russian troops staying in place to disarm them.
If you even think about joining NATO we will invade you. If you are in NATO we probably won't. Therefore, please stop wanting to join NATO.
8n the future, the EU will have its own defence force, that could defend RUkraine. Of course, I don't see how that's any better for Russia. But I suppose it won't be lead by the US or include the UK. So perhaps its more palatable.
I expect the UK will be very much part of the EU defence planning and indeed a closer relationship all round
I doubt it, and I most certainly hope not. An independent army is an essential feature of a free country.
So Scotland isn't a free country?
Most certainly is NOT. We are ruled by bour much bigger neighbour who will not let us be independent or join the EU. Strange parallels with just the bombs missing.
Your absurdity is barely exceeded these days by your language. The only people stopping Scottish independence are Scottish voters.
How does that work? Scottish voters just turned out in record numbers to vote in a national election to elect a record number of pro-independence MSPs. And are being told no by the Essicks Massiv, that however we vote we can't have it.
A 'once in a generation vote'.
That is a bare faced lie, show me where in the Edinburgh agreement that was written, and do not give me the bollox fact that Salmond said on a broadcast that it was a once in ageneration chance. BARE FACED LIE.
It was in the Scottish Government’s prospectus “Scotland’s Future”.
In black and white.
Written down.
Not some “off the cuff” remark in a TV interview as some of the more credulous Nats like to claim.
The only two references to 'once in a generation' in the document are:
(If a vote is No) ' A once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation, is lost.' (Preface - anonymous).
and
'a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way.' (Foreword - Alex Salmond).
No mention of foregoing another opportunity.
I only learnt yesterday that, here, you want “forgoing”, not “foregoing”.
If those words are not predicated on forgoing another referendum, then I don’t understand what they can mean. So, while not explicit, they appear to me to be forgoing another referendum for a period. One is left to determine how long a generation is: presumably, it is no less than 16 years and 9 months.
But I also agree that these words are not some binding contract that can never be broken. I am more interested in the current views of the Scottish people… and there polling shows a majority opposed to a referendum at this time.
If you even think about joining NATO we will invade you. If you are in NATO we probably won't. Therefore, please stop wanting to join NATO.
8n the future, the EU will have its own defence force, that could defend RUkraine. Of course, I don't see how that's any better for Russia. But I suppose it won't be lead by the US or include the UK. So perhaps its more palatable.
I expect the UK will be very much part of the EU defence planning and indeed a closer relationship all round
I doubt it, and I most certainly hope not. An independent army is an essential feature of a free country.
So Scotland isn't a free country?
Most certainly is NOT. We are ruled by bour much bigger neighbour who will not let us be independent or join the EU. Strange parallels with just the bombs missing.
Your absurdity is barely exceeded these days by your language. The only people stopping Scottish independence are Scottish voters.
How does that work? Scottish voters just turned out in record numbers to vote in a national election to elect a record number of pro-independence MSPs. And are being told no by the Essicks Massiv, that however we vote we can't have it.
A 'once in a generation vote'.
That is a bare faced lie, show me where in the Edinburgh agreement that was written, and do not give me the bollox fact that Salmond said on a broadcast that it was a once in ageneration chance. BARE FACED LIE.
It was in the Scottish Government’s prospectus “Scotland’s Future”.
In black and white.
Written down.
Not some “off the cuff” remark in a TV interview as some of the more credulous Nats like to claim.
The only two references to 'once in a generation' in the document are:
(If a vote is No) ' A once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation, is lost.' (Preface - anonymous).
and
'a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way.' (Foreword - Alex Salmond).
No mention of foregoing another opportunity.
Carlotta does not like REAL facts , she prefers the ones she makes up.
It is very upsetting. Hearing the examples is heartbreaking. Our civil service ability to adapt is a disgrace. Tory MPs getting stuck in, but I suspect it will make no difference.
PS Steve Brine very angry.
Incidents like this will occur and reoccur so long as the leadership is only interested in presentation and posturing and not in delivery.
Yep, we know what Johnson "having a good war" actually means to him. It means his poll ratings recover and he stays to fight the next GE. Hopefully there will be a large overlap between what he judges will achieve this goal and what will be the right response to this crisis. This looks to be largely the case so far. But make no mistake as at which objective will dominate should there be a conflict between them. Sorry to be cynical, I don't like to be and normally I'm not, but when it comes to pure 'everything and anything is about me' calculus this guy is very special.
I wonder how his current party's leader will deal with it.
Sacks him
I would expect so. But it reflects pretty badly on SKS for accepting Bercow when he was known to be under investigation for this.
He’s a mere party member. He has no role in the party. He’s not a Labour councillor or peer or MP. While his actions should disqualify him from formal roles, is it appropriate for party membership to be policed in the manner you suggest?
Is that actually true? Perhaps I was misremembering but I think Nick said something about him being involved in running a branch?
I think the way we've handled visa applications from Ukrainian refugees is an embarrassing disgrace. We should be doing much more, and we should have ensured we were ready for this.
But..
I reckon we'd be damned foolish to just invite as many Ukrainians as want to to come here. We're really not very well placed, housing stock wise, to accept hundreds of thousands of people. A cursory google tells me that England has about the same number of empty home (200-250k) as Ireland - where one in eight houses are empty. The UK appears to have about 600k empty homes. France has over 2.5 million. We also have over a million people on social housing waiting lists; even if all of them want to help refugees, do they want to enough to move 100k places down the list?
We need to start a massive cheap housing building programme so this isn't an issue.
Its the reverse of the default of 1998, when Rouble bonds defaulted and hard currency ones largely did not. However, while it keeps the Rouble transfer system intact, it kills any further access to forex.
I remember that one quite well. It sort of cost me my job at the time.
On the "Kirovohrad highway" in Mykolaiv Oblast, the Russian troops gunned down a shift of female teachers of an orphanage, who were going to work in a minibus, killing 3, wounding 2, reported Anna Zamazeyeva, the head of the Mykolaiv regional council. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501185101954228226
Putin says this isn't a war and I actually agree with him. "War" is to dignify it really.
Its the reverse of the default of 1998, when Rouble bonds defaulted and hard currency ones largely did not. However, while it keeps the Rouble transfer system intact, it kills any further access to forex.
I remember that one quite well. It sort of cost me my job at the time.
I wonder how his current party's leader will deal with it.
Sacks him
I would expect so. But it reflects pretty badly on SKS for accepting Bercow when he was known to be under investigation for this.
He’s a mere party member. He has no role in the party. He’s not a Labour councillor or peer or MP. While his actions should disqualify him from formal roles, is it appropriate for party membership to be policed in the manner you suggest?
I think a different standard applies to party members who have a highly visible public profile, particularly if it results from their previous career in politics - it's a special case and it's hard to see how a party can support his continued membership without giving a message that they don't consider the behaviour to be unacceptable. I suppose it could set a precedent that anyone disciplined for bullying by their employer should be barred from membership of a political party, and it's hard to see how that would work in the real world; that seems quite a theoretical problem which doesn't change the what the party leadership should do in this case.
Its the reverse of the default of 1998, when Rouble bonds defaulted and hard currency ones largely did not. However, while it keeps the Rouble transfer system intact, it kills any further access to forex.
I remember that one quite well. It sort of cost me my job at the time.
You are Boris Yeltsin and I claim my five poundsfive trillion roubles!
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
Is there not some logic to the opposite view? If Ukraine sign up to that compromise deal, we can all be at peace from tomorrow. It will save many lives for the future. We can make an argument for that?
Too much for Ukraine to surrender? You can’t trust Putin? Can’t give in to aggression?
In my opinion Putin sought a lot more than that outcome two weeks ago, before his disastrous military belly flop in front the laughing world and NATO note taking. He’s the one desperate for a ceasefire and withdraw to a new DMZ.
No Putin. Different Russia, turning its back on all that and wanting to show its distancing from this disaster, Putin’s barbarity, means this deal that saved lives by stopping the war is actually a deal junked for a better one for Ukraine.
On Putin’s terms only whilst there is Putin, is an argument with some logic to it?
If you are asking me to choose this horror on Ukrainians and their deaths must continue in order to remove Putin, I can’t choose that today, especially as I am in warm pyjamas on my new expensive sofa in a warm flat in Chelsea eating fresh fruit salad whilst they are suffering and turning up with faces set in horror on the borders - as Zellinskyy said they should be ploughing and sowing right now, and not just to feed themselves, not fighting and dying - at some point have to give peace a chance to resolve this?
What makes you think that a 'peace' based on Russia's demands will in any way be lasting? They weaken Ukraine, and it will be easy for Russia to 'justify' another intervention in six months or a year - when they've got their act somewhat together.
The Russian proposals do not stop the war. Putin still wants power over the countries to the west of Russia.
I agree. But On Putin’s terms only whilst there is Putin, is an argument with some logic to it.
If you knew for certain, in one’s year time, there’s no Putin, Different Russia, turning its back on all that and wanting to show its distancing from this disaster, Putin’s barbarity, means this deal that saved lives by stopping the war is actually a deal junked for a better one for Ukraine - you would sign that deal this afternoon wouldn’t you?
So what are you saying - this horror this killing ground, this meat blender must keep putting Ukrainians in it until Putin is defeated?
Yes, I can’t say to you, I guarantee, take my path and Putin is gone in a year, and Ukraine and Russia have friendly deals again.
But neither can you. Where is your path possibly taking us, probably taking us?
There are both paths, that is the decision.
How can you be certain that in one years time there will be no Putin? How can you be certain that after Putin you don't have Putin Part Deux?
The only way this war ends is when Russia, at a societal level, is OK with existence of Ukraine.
If you even think about joining NATO we will invade you. If you are in NATO we probably won't. Therefore, please stop wanting to join NATO.
8n the future, the EU will have its own defence force, that could defend RUkraine. Of course, I don't see how that's any better for Russia. But I suppose it won't be lead by the US or include the UK. So perhaps its more palatable.
I expect the UK will be very much part of the EU defence planning and indeed a closer relationship all round
I doubt it, and I most certainly hope not. An independent army is an essential feature of a free country.
So Scotland isn't a free country?
Most certainly is NOT. We are ruled by bour much bigger neighbour who will not let us be independent or join the EU. Strange parallels with just the bombs missing.
Your absurdity is barely exceeded these days by your language. The only people stopping Scottish independence are Scottish voters.
How does that work? Scottish voters just turned out in record numbers to vote in a national election to elect a record number of pro-independence MSPs. And are being told no by the Essicks Massiv, that however we vote we can't have it.
A 'once in a generation vote'.
That is a bare faced lie, show me where in the Edinburgh agreement that was written, and do not give me the bollox fact that Salmond said on a broadcast that it was a once in ageneration chance. BARE FACED LIE.
It was in the Scottish Government’s prospectus “Scotland’s Future”.
In black and white.
Written down.
Not some “off the cuff” remark in a TV interview as some of the more credulous Nats like to claim.
The only two references to 'once in a generation' in the document are:
(If a vote is No) ' A once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation, is lost.' (Preface - anonymous).
and
'a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way.' (Foreword - Alex Salmond).
No mention of foregoing another opportunity.
I only learnt yesterday that, here, you want “forgoing”, not “foregoing”.
If those words are not predicated on forgoing another referendum, then I don’t understand what they can mean. So, while not explicit, they appear to me to be forgoing another referendum for a period. One is left to determine how long a generation is: presumably, it is no less than 16 years and 9 months.
But I also agree that these words are not some binding contract that can never be broken. I am more interested in the current views of the Scottish people… and there polling shows a majority opposed to a referendum at this time.
bollox they voted in majority parties whose purpose was independence
It is very upsetting. Hearing the examples is heartbreaking. Our civil service ability to adapt is a disgrace. Tory MPs getting stuck in, but I suspect it will make no difference.
PS Steve Brine very angry.
Incidents like this will occur and reoccur so long as the leadership is only interested in presentation and posturing and not in delivery.
Yep, we know what Johnson "having a good war" actually means to him. It means his poll ratings recover and he stays to fight the next GE. Hopefully there will be a large overlap between what he judges will achieve this goal and what will be the right response to this crisis. This looks to be largely the case so far. But make no mistake as at which objective will dominate should there be a conflict between them. Sorry to be cynical, I don't like to be and normally I'm not, but when it comes to pure 'everything and anything is about me' calculus this guy is very special.
he would be with putin in a heartbeat if he thought it benefitted himself
They changed policy a few years before the referendum when they discovered how badly their anti-NATO policy was polling. They still don't accept that NATO is a nuclear alliance. Window-dressing really.
Privately, I suspect most Nats would prefer to be like Rep of Ireland, neutral, virtue-signalling about evils of nukes, while sheltering under the umbrella of big bad nuclear-armed Atlantic alliance.
Your insight into the minds of 'Nats' is remarkable. Shame it doesn't extend to finding a way to encorage them to vote for the BJ party (your party in case you've forgotten).
Let's rant about Bercow to distract from the ghastly set of crooks we elected Day comes round earlier every year.
See also Corbyn.
That's rather weak. Bercow is in the news today, it's not as though people are just randomly 'ranting' about him.
As the ultimate arbiter in these matters, when should people be permitted to discuss the Bercow report findings without it being a distraction from the failings of the government?
That's a serious question by the way, as I do not wish the crapness of the government's MPs to scoot by, yet also think it should be ok to talk about Bercow.
Odious little shit. Totally unsuited for the role he played. Classic small man bully. Not getting the peerage he so obviously craves is the least of it.
That was a good decision wasn't it.
Had the report been more equivocal, particularly in relation to him lying and smearing people in an attempt to avoid criticism, then it would have been a risky move that had not quite paid off.
As it is it is Hoyle who may be best pleased - it might have been the precedent of enobling Speakers will have fallen by the way side, but given the findings it can probably be highlighted he was an exception and his successors can still get it.
Comments
The Russian proposals do not stop the war. Putin still wants power over the countries to the west of Russia.
I've offered help to a couple of charities, but been told I can best do that by donating and encouraging others to.
So here goes - please give generously all
https://www.icrc.org/en/donate/ukraine
https://www.care.org/
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/ukraine-crisis-relief-fund/
Privately, I suspect most Nats would prefer to be like Rep of Ireland, neutral, virtue-signalling about evils of nukes, while sheltering under the umbrella of big bad nuclear-armed Atlantic alliance.
The US National bet is £30 trillion dollars
So according to the above figure, Russia has money in the UK equal to the American National Debt and 10x the UK National debt.
Er..... no.
Someone is counting the face value of derivatives or some such - or maybe just horseshit.
The EU number is equally silly, the other way - less than 30 days of payments for oil and gas from the EU countries...
JPMorgan Chase & Co strategists led by Trang Nguyen say that the optionality to pay in roubles "may render these bonds out of scope for CDS as 'obligations' and 'deliverable obligations'", because the rouble is the domestic currency of the issuer, and it just so happens to not be a hard currency, such as the US dollar or euro. "This means that bonds with rouble fallback provisions can neither trigger CDS nor be delivered into CDS," Nguyen said in e-mailed comments on Sunday.
Russia has US$117 million worth of coupons on dollar bonds coming due on Mar 16 that don't have the option to be paid in roubles, the JPMorgan strategists said. If Russia decides to pay in roubles following Putin's decree, "that would be an event of default and would trigger CDS", Nguyen said."
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/putins-rouble-workaround-still-leaves-bond-payments-in-doubt-0
I've been training at an MMA gym for a few years now, and one thing it's taught me (including a hard lesson involving a few broken bones) is how fragile the human body is... as well as just how bad I am at fighting. And this is just sparring with people who want to help me get fit and healthy, not a fight to the death with some frightened 19 year old conscript who doesn't speak my language. Every class I take is a lesson in humility and an awareness of my own limitations.
I'd definitely recommend an MMA or boxing gym though, if you want to get to "fighting fitness" and learn a bit more about your body.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501119878283026432
PS Steve Brine very angry.
But I also agree with what Phil is posting, I don’t know to what extent UK talked up the Polish planes to Ukraine deal, but whoever is briefing our defence sec is pouring cold water over it. Having talked it up, you won’t get talking down from US and Poland, just silence if the western powers and NATO have knocked the ideal on its head - making Poland airforce on air and ground too much of a target as too much provocation to mad in head Putin,
my original post is right isn’t it, they have knocked it on the head ☹️
(If a vote is No) ' A once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation, is lost.' (Preface - anonymous).
and
'a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way.' (Foreword - Alex Salmond).
No mention of foregoing another opportunity.
The prima facie evidence of war crimes is clear, and it is likely that those in identifiable roles in their commission will have to fear extradition to the Hague from quite a large number of countries.
We are packing in refugees where ever space can be found, and several thousand have arrived in Tallinn in the past couple of days. Schools, places to stay and jobs are being found for those that need them. Estonia has also quietly sent even more kit to the Ukrainian army.
The Russian Embassy has suffered at least one bomb threat, but although feelings are running high in Estonia, the natural taciturnity of the Estonians means that there is little to show, beyond a burning contempt on all sides for those who have ordered the shelling.
There is a certain satisfaction at the state of the Russian forces and a growing hope that the Ukrainians can begin to push back against the invaders. Borders are still busy as more Russians try to leave. The situation in Russia is not good and friends in St. Petersburg report the break down of most financial services. Despite the heavy crackdown, quite a few Russians seem to know what has happened and are as horrified as the rest of us.
Putin is clinging on, but with rumours about his health spreading, one wonders who would want to stay with the sinking ship. We hope and pray here, but it really feels like Russia is on the brink of a major disaster. I think defeat for the invaders has become a real possibility and the blowback into Russia will end the country we have known. Collapse, revolution, civil war, who knows? Still we feel that we are very far from the end of this crisis.
New Thread
IIRC, it’s about 20% of GDP
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501185101954228226
If you knew for certain, in one’s year time, there’s no Putin, Different Russia, turning its back on all that and wanting to show its distancing from this disaster, Putin’s barbarity, means this deal that saved lives by stopping the war is actually a deal junked for a better one for Ukraine - you would sign that deal this afternoon wouldn’t you?
So what are you saying - this horror this killing ground, this meat blender must keep putting Ukrainians in it until Putin is defeated?
Yes, I can’t say to you, I guarantee, take my path and Putin is gone in a year, and Ukraine and Russia have friendly deals again.
But neither can you. Where is your path possibly taking us, probably taking us?
There are both paths, that is the decision.
There is certainly nothing even vaguely approaching such a suggestion from Russia.
For now, they demand a Ukrainian ceasefire, and Russian troops staying in place to disarm them.
If those words are not predicated on forgoing another referendum, then I don’t understand what they can mean. So, while not explicit, they appear to me to be forgoing another referendum for a period. One is left to determine how long a generation is: presumably, it is no less than 16 years and 9 months.
But I also agree that these words are not some binding contract that can never be broken. I am more interested in the current views of the Scottish people… and there polling shows a majority opposed to a referendum at this time.
But..
I reckon we'd be damned foolish to just invite as many Ukrainians as want to to come here. We're really not very well placed, housing stock wise, to accept hundreds of thousands of people. A cursory google tells me that England has about the same number of empty home (200-250k) as Ireland - where one in eight houses are empty. The UK appears to have about 600k empty homes. France has over 2.5 million. We also have over a million people on social housing waiting lists; even if all of them want to help refugees, do they want to enough to move 100k places down the list?
We need to start a massive cheap housing building programme so this isn't an issue.
Solved.
How can you be certain that after Putin you don't have Putin Part Deux?
The only way this war ends is when Russia, at a societal level, is OK with existence of Ukraine.
As the ultimate arbiter in these matters, when should people be permitted to discuss the Bercow report findings without it being a distraction from the failings of the government?
That's a serious question by the way, as I do not wish the crapness of the government's MPs to scoot by, yet also think it should be ok to talk about Bercow.
As it is it is Hoyle who may be best pleased - it might have been the precedent of enobling Speakers will have fallen by the way side, but given the findings it can probably be highlighted he was an exception and his successors can still get it.