Japanese military experts have noticed that a large number of military personnel stationed in Japan's Northern Territory illegally occupied by the Russian Federation, are currently located in Ukraine, our sources say https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501152306825412608
On Ukrainian refugees, maybe it's just me, but I really couldn't care less what the public thinks, as expressed in opinion polls. It shouldn't matter if the public are in favour or opposed to taking in these refugees. It's obvious to anyone with a moral compass that we should be generous to Ukrainian refugees. As it happens, I suspect the numbers wishing to settle in the UK will be relatively small.
Sometimes governments need to do the right thing regardless of public opinion. Sometimes governments need to lead public opinion, not follow it. This is one of those occasions. That's why we elect governments.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
Minor problem.
The Russian forces can't move, forwards or backwards
They can use Tolstoy's War & Peace as an instruction manual.
Edit: Sorry, that should be Special Military Operations and Peace. Not used to the new code yet.
This is what I said ages ago - it is precisely because the Russians have put their money into the UK's jurisdiction and USA's jurisdiction that UK and US sanctions are hurting Russia so much now.
The EU's figure is unsurprisingly low not because the EU is not willing to do sanctions, but because they're not a global financial superpower like the UK is that they're incapable of doing sanctions.
The UK being a global centre for finance gives us diamond-hard "soft power" to utilise in a conflict like this by sanctioning the finance that is here. It is why it is such a good idea to have the finance here in the first place.
If the finance had never been in our jurisdiction, we'd never be able to sanction it. 🤦♂️
Also makes the point about why we have to careful and systematic. Everyone else with cash here has to believe the bar for confiscating it is “invade you neighbour and murder women and children” high.
Japanese military experts have noticed that a large number of military personnel stationed in Japan's Northern Territory illegally occupied by the Russian Federation, are currently located in Ukraine, our sources say https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501152306825412608
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
Minor problem.
The Russian forces can't move, forwards or backwards
They could be given a tow if they lay down their weapons.
Are the Polish still sending planes for Ukr airforce?
Telegraph reporting analysts saying two more weeks of these kinds of losses for RU airforce and things are going to be really, really bad for them.
EU ambassadors meet this pm to discuss sanctioning up to 14 more oligarchs. SWIFT measures to be extended but not to Sberbank or Gazprombank, which are critical to some countries’ energy supplies. Counter cryptocurrency & banning Russian ships also on table, oil import ban isn’t.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I think Ukraine can win this war. Russia is a few weeks from being on its knees, every day that passes without Ukraine surrendering is a day closer to a Ukrainian victory.
I doubt either side is going to win the war for months, it looks like it's all grinding to a giant stalemate to me. The battle of Aleppo took 4 years. I think we're heading into that sort of territory.
The big difference would be the casualty rate, aiui they were minimal for the Russians in Aleppo. Could Putin get away with 1000+ dead troops a month for 4 years? Take it as read that he doesn’t give a fcuk about dead Ukrainian kids.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
The biggest ally in stopping the war may actually be China.
For a start - and this is why the Russians won't go nuke even if they wanted to in a limited sense - what the Chinese certainly do not want is a nuke dropped because, overnight, Japan / S Korea / Taiwan would automatically switch to a policy of having nuclear weapons.
Secondly, China is the world's biggest importer of oil plus a whole range of commodities which are seeing massive hikes (as well as the cost of shipping etc). There is a question of how much this will impact the Chinese GDP growth plans but the chances are quite significantly.
Thirdly, the war is heightening the world's response to military action, which obviously impacts any plans China may have with Taiwan.
Would be interesting to know the pressure on Moscow from China.
It's easy to believe China has both great concerns and an opportunity here.
I've been saying for days that China are key in all this.
Putin's war is now increasingly looking bad for world business and China wont like that.
BBC’s Mark Easton: 286 Ukrainians hoping to come to UK have been turned away at Calais, according to local officials. They’ve been told to go to Paris or Brussels to apply. There’s no Home Office team in Calais (though the HO said there was). https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1501111329725325316
BBC’s Mark Easton: 286 Ukrainians hoping to come to UK have been turned away at Calais, according to local officials. They’ve been told to go to Paris or Brussels to apply. There’s no Home Office team in Calais (though the HO said there was). https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1501111329725325316
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
Minor problem.
The Russian forces can't move, forwards or backwards
They could be given a tow if they lay down their weapons.
Are the Polish still sending planes for Ukr airforce?
Telegraph reporting analysts saying two more weeks of these kinds of losses for RU airforce and things are going to be really, really bad for them.
They've yet to decide - but I suspect (hope) the pressure behind the scenes is ramping up. As you say, to be useful it has to happen very soon.
So 1% of the assets in the UK being sanctioned is 7.5x as harmful to Russia as 98% of assets in the EU being sanctioned?
Shows the diamond hard power of the UK and impotence of the EU when it comes to finance and sanctions then, doesn't it? Which is not a dig at the EU, they simply lack the power the UK and USA has when it comes to finance it seems. I fear this tweet demonstrates the opposite of what you intend..
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I think Ukraine can win this war. Russia is a few weeks from being on its knees, every day that passes without Ukraine surrendering is a day closer to a Ukrainian victory.
I doubt either side is going to win the war for months, it looks like it's all grinding to a giant stalemate to me. The battle of Aleppo took 4 years. I think we're heading into that sort of territory.
The big difference would be the casualty rate, aiui they were minimal for the Russians in Aleppo. Could Putin get away with 1000+ dead troops a month for 4 years? Take it as read that he doesn’t give a fcuk about dead Ukrainian kids.
Which just shows he is totally mad, as in tonto, seeing as he is obsessed by the idea that these Ukr kids are all part of his wonderful russian volk.
There has been one change on Japan's approach to islands that's they dispute with Russia that's been noticed by the press which is that they've started calling them "the nation's territories" (固有の領土) whereas right through the Abe era when they were trying to straighten out relations they stuck to calling them "the northern territories" (北方領土).
There was also former PM Abe popping up and saying Japan should develop nuclear weapons (shared with other countries) which I guess was aimed at creating an incentive for China to push Russia to deescalate.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
The biggest ally in stopping the war may actually be China.
For a start - and this is why the Russians won't go nuke even if they wanted to in a limited sense - what the Chinese certainly do not want is a nuke dropped because, overnight, Japan / S Korea / Taiwan would automatically switch to a policy of having nuclear weapons.
Secondly, China is the world's biggest importer of oil plus a whole range of commodities which are seeing massive hikes (as well as the cost of shipping etc). There is a question of how much this will impact the Chinese GDP growth plans but the chances are quite significantly.
Thirdly, the war is heightening the world's response to military action, which obviously impacts any plans China may have with Taiwan.
Would be interesting to know the pressure on Moscow from China.
It's easy to believe China has both great concerns and an opportunity here.
I've been saying for days that China are key in all this.
Putin's war is now increasingly looking bad for world business and China wont like that.
China will be fine with it (unless there's a democratic revolution in Russia). They take the long view more often than not, and a weakened Russia dependent on Chinese economic support benefits them greatly.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
Not just rewarding but setting the stage for the next round. Russia's commitment to Ukrainian territorial integrity is worth nothing, as the Budapest Memorandum shows. You need to eliminate their means to do it. Russian Crimea is a dagger pointed at the heart of a Ukrainian state. At most, it can be neutral.
I don’t think it can realistically be neutral, given the mahoosive naval base at Sevastopol. There’s a nuclear proof submarine base carved into a hill, where the subs can be rearmed/resupplied without surfacing.
I see that after the excitement of yesterday, the ruble has stabilised and recovered about half its losses. Still ~25% down on two days ago, and ~75% down on pre-"special military operation", though.
It’s impossible to see how John Bercow remains a member of the Labour Party by the end of today. Any hopes of getting the London mayoral ticket also gone. Some trite words also needed from Margaret Beckett and those who said Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
Odious little shit. Totally unsuited for the role he played. Classic small man bully. Not getting the peerage he so obviously craves is the least of it.
BBC’s Mark Easton: 286 Ukrainians hoping to come to UK have been turned away at Calais, according to local officials. They’ve been told to go to Paris or Brussels to apply. There’s no Home Office team in Calais (though the HO said there was). https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1501111329725325316
Urgent Question for the Home Sec?
This is the point where the theoretical prohibition on lying to the House actually matters - MPs (on the Tory side) need to take their responsibilities seriously and force the Home Sec to apologise and correct the record. Much of what Johnson lies about isn't that relevant to governance - it's just a kind of background punctuation to his speech, because he can get away with it - but if Parliamentary accountability in relation to how ministers are operating their departments is no more than pretending you're doing something you're not then the system has completely failed.
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
Слава України
I'm not sure where you are, but perhaps contact your local Ukranian community association. There are about 70k Ukrainians in the UK.
EU ambassadors meet this pm to discuss sanctioning up to 14 more oligarchs. SWIFT measures to be extended but not to Sberbank or Gazprombank, which are critical to some countries’ energy supplies. Counter cryptocurrency & banning Russian ships also on table, oil import ban isn’t.
It’s impossible to see how John Bercow remains a member of the Labour Party by the end of today. Any hopes of getting the London mayoral ticket also gone. Some trite words also needed from Margaret Beckett and those who said Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
Bercow is unpleasant and from his general tone it is hardly a surprise that he has been found to be a bully, however Brexit is clearly more important than Bercow's behaviour! Presumably Beckett must have said something more than that for there to be any issue at all!?
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
Meanwhile, in "political nerdery", I see that ping-pong for the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Bill is scheduled for next Wednesday. Based on how the debates have gone, I expect that the Commons will throw out the Lords amendment (which is basically a wrecking amendment) and I don't expect the Lords to insist.
FTPA could be a thing of the past by the end of next week.
There has been one change on Japan's approach to islands that's they dispute with Russia that's been noticed by the press which is that they've started calling them "the nation's territories" (固有の領土) whereas right through the Abe era when they were trying to straighten out relations they stuck to calling them "the northern territories" (北方領土).
There was also former PM Abe popping up and saying Japan should develop nuclear weapons (shared with other countries) which I guess was aimed at creating an incentive for China to push Russia to deescalate.
In 1941, the handshake with Japan not mucking around let Russia send tons of troops from Siberia to the West...
If Japan starts making noises about the Kurils... all the forces from Siberia are in the wrong place. The Russians will certainly be unable to send reinforcements from there....
To "needs improvement" because too many pupils spend their time discussing identity rather than learning the subjects on the curriculum. It is really quite damning.
Jake Wallis Simons wrote about this in Jewish Chronicle the other day.
I suspect in the future this school will become the norm rather than the exception as these ideas have been gaining traction for years.
Only a fool is going to pay £32K pa for a school which "needs improvement". There are plenty of good private schools in the area. And state ones. Parents want their children to learn not have their heads filled with rubbish ideology.
Far be it from me to defend a private school, but the Ofsted inspection was prompted by parental complaints. On reading the report, it's clear that if the issues were not being tackled the school would have been judged 'inadequate' rather than 'requires improvement'. The Head has already gone, and other heads will roll. I'd expect the school to be back on track pretty quickly.
Do you think that this Ofsted inspection was quicker than usual? I roughly remember that Charles started posting on the issue sep/oct.
A “pop up” visa processing centre in Lille, France, will be set up for Ukrainian refugees fleeing conflict in “the coming days”, Downing Street has now confirmed.
The announcement comes as the Home Office has faced mounting criticism over its confused handling of resettling eligible Ukrainians in Britain.
It’s impossible to see how John Bercow remains a member of the Labour Party by the end of today. Any hopes of getting the London mayoral ticket also gone. Some trite words also needed from Margaret Beckett and those who said Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
Слава України
To be honest, Blanche, I'm glad you got turned down. You were attempting to go into a very dangerous environment and might well have made things worse for the people you were trying to help.
A financial contribution appears to me more appropriate and more likely to be beneficial.
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
And half this morning's front pages.
I'm pretty sure Poland is remarking the number of refugees, too. Something which is very much part of the war.
But nice try.
And all over the BBC yesterday and today with interviews with some very eloquent people caught in the mess and photos of the posters put up by the British Authorities at Calais telling people 'tough'. It is the only reason I know.
Given we're not fighting or key to the diplomacy our main contribution apart from sanctions and aid is arguably on refugees. So the focus on this is perfectly appropriate imo.
We are fighting, by proxy, and Boris has been diplomatically pivotal. We are also absolutely crucial in the sanctions, freezing more Russian assets than anyone else
Otherwise, good point
LOL! From here in France you have no idea what a Colonel Blimp you sound like!
There is more attention paid to Victor Orban than Boris Johnson
EU ambassadors meet this pm to discuss sanctioning up to 14 more oligarchs. SWIFT measures to be extended but not to Sberbank or Gazprombank, which are critical to some countries’ energy supplies. Counter cryptocurrency & banning Russian ships also on table, oil import ban isn’t.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
As Putin is so sure of himself and his actions in freeing Ukraine from the shackles of Nazi rule, maybe the Ukrainians should demand that Putin, his Generals and assorted Ministers attend The Hague, after all that is not a lot to ask as they know they are innocent and doing a job to save the Ukrainians. There can be no grounds for Putin to reject this request and continue the war.
Ramming 10-20 people into an open top transporter with zero protection like that is suicidal. All would be killed in seconds if Ukrainian fighters saw them.
I see that after the excitement of yesterday, the ruble has stabilised and recovered about half its losses. Still ~25% down on two days ago, and ~75% down on pre-"special military operation", though.
If you even think about joining NATO we will invade you. If you are in NATO we probably won't. Therefore, please stop wanting to join NATO.
8n the future, the EU will have its own defence force, that could defend RUkraine. Of course, I don't see how that's any better for Russia. But I suppose it won't be lead by the US or include the UK. So perhaps its more palatable.
I expect the UK will be very much part of the EU defence planning and indeed a closer relationship all round
I doubt it, and I most certainly hope not. An independent army is an essential feature of a free country.
So Scotland isn't a free country?
Most certainly is NOT. We are ruled by bour much bigger neighbour who will not let us be independent or join the EU. Strange parallels with just the bombs missing.
Your absurdity is barely exceeded these days by your language. The only people stopping Scottish independence are Scottish voters.
How does that work? Scottish voters just turned out in record numbers to vote in a national election to elect a record number of pro-independence MSPs. And are being told no by the Essicks Massiv, that however we vote we can't have it.
A 'once in a generation vote'.
That is a bare faced lie, show me where in the Edinburgh agreement that was written, and do not give me the bollox fact that Salmond said on a broadcast that it was a once in ageneration chance. BARE FACED LIE.
It was in the Scottish Government’s prospectus “Scotland’s Future”.
In black and white.
Written down.
Not some “off the cuff” remark in a TV interview as some of the more credulous Nats like to claim.
Bloody hell, was it worth carrying this over from a previous thread? For the millionth bloody time, he wasn't and had no right to bind anyone to any future course of action. It's just a thing people say at referendums.
And OK it's an ad hominem point but why sit on bloody Jersey trying to bully the Scots? Either move to the Hebrides, or concentrate your fire on the Sark separatists.
Are the only people allowed to have an opinion on the future of the U.K. resident in the Hebrides?
I’m just interested in keeping Malc straight on the facts - we are all entitled to our own opinions, but not our own facts.
And the “once in a generation” was in an official Scottish Government publication, not some “off the cuff remark”.
I am open to the argument that it’s optimistic to believe much the SNP says, but them’s the facts of what they wrote.
Your facts are mostly misrepresented propaganda. Where in the signed treaty does it state this great FACT. Having it in some political pamphlets or other blurb does not make it a fact and part of the agreement. Ergo manifesto's which are never ever implemented. You have a strange idea of what constitutes a FACT.
You’re not your usual sunny, genial self malcy. Normally I come to your comments with the expectation of reading decorous witticisms, framed with elegant politesse.
Yet today you are positively RUDE
I don’t suppose this has anything to do with the SNP admitting there won’t be any indyref soon, thus effectively putting off the next one until the mid 2030s?
Leon, thanks for that, I amerely pointing out Carlotta's deficiencies. Re second point, I realised a couple of years ago that teh current crooked bunch running Scotland had no intention of having a referendum, they were only interested in their bankbooks and getting rid of women's rights. SNP is now run by a politbureau and supported mainly by sheep or people who hav enot yet grasped that they will not push for a referendum. I await the current bunch being toppled. I have given up hope of a referendum in the short term , undemocratic as that is but with both London and Edinburgh against there is little hope. I have now accepted I may not see an independent Scotland in my lifetime unless I live to a grand old age
It’s impossible to see how John Bercow remains a member of the Labour Party by the end of today. Any hopes of getting the London mayoral ticket also gone. Some trite words also needed from Margaret Beckett and those who said Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
Bercow is unpleasant and from his general tone it is hardly a surprise that he has been found to be a bully, however Brexit is clearly more important than Bercow's behaviour! Presumably Beckett must have said something more than that for there to be any issue at all!?
"Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour" meant keeping BollocksToBrexitMan as Speaker for his help against Brexit was more important whatever his misdemeanours.
To "needs improvement" because too many pupils spend their time discussing identity rather than learning the subjects on the curriculum. It is really quite damning.
Jake Wallis Simons wrote about this in Jewish Chronicle the other day.
I suspect in the future this school will become the norm rather than the exception as these ideas have been gaining traction for years.
Only a fool is going to pay £32K pa for a school which "needs improvement". There are plenty of good private schools in the area. And state ones. Parents want their children to learn not have their heads filled with rubbish ideology.
Far be it from me to defend a private school, but the Ofsted inspection was prompted by parental complaints. On reading the report, it's clear that if the issues were not being tackled the school would have been judged 'inadequate' rather than 'requires improvement'. The Head has already gone, and other heads will roll. I'd expect the school to be back on track pretty quickly.
Do you think that this Ofsted inspection was quicker than usual? I roughly remember that Charles started posting on the issue sep/oct.
Yes, it was earlier than expected - they usually wait for a number of complaints before inspecting. Interesting also that Ofsted sent in a high-powered inspection team - all HMI (Her Majesty's Inspectors, full-time elite squad) rather than part-time inspectors.
To "needs improvement" because too many pupils spend their time discussing identity rather than learning the subjects on the curriculum. It is really quite damning.
Jake Wallis Simons wrote about this in Jewish Chronicle the other day.
I suspect in the future this school will become the norm rather than the exception as these ideas have been gaining traction for years.
Only a fool is going to pay £32K pa for a school which "needs improvement". There are plenty of good private schools in the area. And state ones. Parents want their children to learn not have their heads filled with rubbish ideology.
Far be it from me to defend a private school, but the Ofsted inspection was prompted by parental complaints. On reading the report, it's clear that if the issues were not being tackled the school would have been judged 'inadequate' rather than 'requires improvement'. The Head has already gone, and other heads will roll. I'd expect the school to be back on track pretty quickly.
Do you think that this Ofsted inspection was quicker than usual? I roughly remember that Charles started posting on the issue sep/oct.
Yes, it was earlier than expected - they usually wait for a number of complaints before inspecting. Interesting also that Ofsted sent in a high-powered inspection team - all HMI (Her Majesty's Inspectors, full-time elite squad) rather than part-time inspectors.
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
Слава України
Wow well done you for giving it a go. As for your doc's prognosis - anyone can die of exposure was he making it as a general comment on the weather out there or had you shown him your kit bag containing a pair of dessies and a t-shirt.
I wonder how his current party's leader will deal with it.
Sacks him
I would expect so. But it reflects pretty badly on SKS for accepting Bercow when he was known to be under investigation for this.
Well, as long as he does better than instructing his backbenchers to "form a square around the Bercster" he's exceeding current ministerial expectations I guess.
[edit: I don't think current ministerial behaviour is the right baseline to use]
It’s impossible to see how John Bercow remains a member of the Labour Party by the end of today. Any hopes of getting the London mayoral ticket also gone. Some trite words also needed from Margaret Beckett and those who said Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
Bercow is unpleasant and from his general tone it is hardly a surprise that he has been found to be a bully, however Brexit is clearly more important than Bercow's behaviour! Presumably Beckett must have said something more than that for there to be any issue at all!?
"Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour" meant keeping BollocksToBrexitMan as Speaker for his help against Brexit was more important whatever his misdemeanours.
"The Speaker, after being elected and approved, continues in that office during the whole Parliament, unless in the meantime they resign or are removed by death."
It’s impossible to see how John Bercow remains a member of the Labour Party by the end of today. Any hopes of getting the London mayoral ticket also gone. Some trite words also needed from Margaret Beckett and those who said Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
Bercow is unpleasant and from his general tone it is hardly a surprise that he has been found to be a bully, however Brexit is clearly more important than Bercow's behaviour! Presumably Beckett must have said something more than that for there to be any issue at all!?
"Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour" meant keeping BollocksToBrexitMan as Speaker for his help against Brexit was more important whatever his misdemeanours.
Indeed. The Eurozealots' cheerleeding for Bercow as he rigged the rules in the 2017-19 Parliament was unedifying even without the bullying angle.
It’s impossible to see how John Bercow remains a member of the Labour Party by the end of today. Any hopes of getting the London mayoral ticket also gone. Some trite words also needed from Margaret Beckett and those who said Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
It is always Brexit with you
Bercow's public life is over
I have to say that Labour must take the blame for imposing on the House of Commons two such truly dreadful (albeit dreadful in different ways) consecutive Speakers as Michael Martin and John Bercow.
Just think, we could have had Sir George Young and Margaret Beckett instead of those two.
I don't think Sir Lindsey is particularly great, but at least he's not embarrassingly incompetent or embarrassingly narcissistic.
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
And half this morning's front pages.
I'm pretty sure Poland is remarking the number of refugees, too. Something which is very much part of the war.
But nice try.
And all over the BBC yesterday and today with interviews with some very eloquent people caught in the mess and photos of the posters put up by the British Authorities at Calais telling people 'tough'. It is the only reason I know.
Given we're not fighting or key to the diplomacy our main contribution apart from sanctions and aid is arguably on refugees. So the focus on this is perfectly appropriate imo.
We are fighting, by proxy, and Boris has been diplomatically pivotal. We are also absolutely crucial in the sanctions, freezing more Russian assets than anyone else
Otherwise, good point
"by proxy" ... "Boris pivotal" ... c'mon it's too early for this.
Sanctions, yes, as I said. We're big there. Since we run the Laundry we can unplug it.
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
Слава України
You have an absolute heart of gold Blanchey! 💖💖💖💖💖
Are there charities on the borders who need volunteers you can help?
On Ukrainian refugees, maybe it's just me, but I really couldn't care less what the public thinks, as expressed in opinion polls. It shouldn't matter if the public are in favour or opposed to taking in these refugees. It's obvious to anyone with a moral compass that we should be generous to Ukrainian refugees. As it happens, I suspect the numbers wishing to settle in the UK will be relatively small.
Sometimes governments need to do the right thing regardless of public opinion. Sometimes governments need to lead public opinion, not follow it. This is one of those occasions. That's why we elect governments.
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
Слава України
Wow well done you for giving it a go. As for your doc's prognosis - anyone can die of exposure was he making it as a general comment on the weather out there or had you shown him your kit bag containing a pair of dessies and a t-shirt.
I've got almost no body fat. And I've got very little muscle under that. I'd apparently need a couple of extra layers of clothing just to be as well insulated as an average sized weakling. I don't know if it's actually true, or just part of a concerted (and probably sensible) effort to dissuade me from getting involved.
Scottish sub sample not to be highlited on PB today I imagine. LolDs on 2, 1pt less than the Greens..
Starmer will be pleased to be maintaining his lead despite all the fairly favourable coverage that Johnson is getting over Ukraine. I've been keeping an eye on the Tory Don't Know percentage, which I think they can reasonably count 50% of as a reserve - voters like BigG who really don't like Boris Johnson but seem (if I'm not misjudging him - just illustrating a general point) feel a magnetic pull towards voting Tory anyway. That was up in the high 20s but is now down in 19% of 2019 voters, vs 14% for Labour, not a big difference. So I'd speculate that the Labour lead has narrowed because some of the Tories offended by Partygate have drifted home.
The insane Scottish Tory subsample in yesterday's Redfield is back to a more normal 19% (vs 23 Lab, 47 SNP).
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
And half this morning's front pages.
I'm pretty sure Poland is remarking the number of refugees, too. Something which is very much part of the war.
But nice try.
And all over the BBC yesterday and today with interviews with some very eloquent people caught in the mess and photos of the posters put up by the British Authorities at Calais telling people 'tough'. It is the only reason I know.
Given we're not fighting or key to the diplomacy our main contribution apart from sanctions and aid is arguably on refugees. So the focus on this is perfectly appropriate imo.
We are fighting, by proxy, and Boris has been diplomatically pivotal. We are also absolutely crucial in the sanctions, freezing more Russian assets than anyone else
Otherwise, good point
"by proxy" ... "Boris pivotal" ... c'mon it's too early for this.
Sanctions, yes, as I said. We're big there. Since we run the Laundry we can unplug it.
It isn't "too early for this." On actual practical help for Ukraine in resisting Putin the UK has probably done more than any other country. It wasn't that long ago that RAF transporters were having to fly around German airspace to get the armaments to Kiev.
Quite remarkable contrast with the performance with the Home Office. That's why so many Tory MPs are angry and frustrated.
But the credits outweigh the debits.
Meanwhile Ian Blackford witters away about scrapping Trident. Jesus.
It’s impossible to see how John Bercow remains a member of the Labour Party by the end of today. Any hopes of getting the London mayoral ticket also gone. Some trite words also needed from Margaret Beckett and those who said Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
It is always Brexit with you
Bercow's public life is over
Posting someone else's tweet that mentions Brexit, the sign of an obessive for sure. Just as latching onto the word Brexit in that tweet is.
Odious little shit. Totally unsuited for the role he played. Classic small man bully. Not getting the peerage he so obviously craves is the least of it.
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
Слава України
Wow well done you for giving it a go. As for your doc's prognosis - anyone can die of exposure was he making it as a general comment on the weather out there or had you shown him your kit bag containing a pair of dessies and a t-shirt.
I've got almost no body fat. And I've got very little muscle under that. I'd apparently need a couple of extra layers of clothing just to be as well insulated as an average sized weakling. I don't know if it's actually true, or just part of a concerted (and probably sensible) effort to dissuade me from getting involved.
I'm sure you will be able to do plenty from where you are.
“Are we a big generous welcoming superpower of a global Britain or not? That means Lillie AND Calais AND other places not least in Rumania, Hungary, AND last week not next week”.
“…and did you knowingly lie to the house yesterday, or genuinely didn’t know the top point on your own action plan?”
I see that after the excitement of yesterday, the ruble has stabilised and recovered about half its losses. Still ~25% down on two days ago, and ~75% down on pre-"special military operation", though.
S&P futures point to a rebound today.
No real surprise in the absence of any major new developments. Oil continues its upward curve with WTI above $120 and Brent above $125 (Natural gas futures down today though).
I find it incredible we've gone in just two years from a collapse in demand and a glut of supply to surging demand and a supply problem. Two years ago you literally couldn't give a barrel of oil away - now it's above $120.
I can't believe such volatility works well for the global or British economy. I suppose the question is where the oil price goes from here - if we continue with military action in Ukraine but no further escalation I imagine we'll find a ceiling somewhere.
Let's rant about Bercow to distract from the ghastly set of crooks we elected Day comes round earlier every year.
See also Corbyn.
Are you excusing his behaviour
Do you think you could wind your neck in on demanding statements and assurances form other posters on every issue of the day? You're just another PB random, albeit on the sillier and more excitable end of the scale.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
As Putin is so sure of himself and his actions in freeing Ukraine from the shackles of Nazi rule, maybe the Ukrainians should demand that Putin, his Generals and assorted Ministers attend The Hague, after all that is not a lot to ask as they know they are innocent and doing a job to save the Ukrainians. There can be no grounds for Putin to reject this request and continue the war.
Let's rant about Bercow to distract from the ghastly set of crooks we elected Day comes round earlier every year.
See also Corbyn.
Are you excusing his behaviour
Do you think you could wind your neck in on demanding statements and assurances form other posters on every issue of the day? You're just another PB random, albeit on the sillier and more excitable end of the scale.
You really do not like being challenged do you
No doubt your mood reflects the end of your independence dream
It’s impossible to see how John Bercow remains a member of the Labour Party by the end of today. Any hopes of getting the London mayoral ticket also gone. Some trite words also needed from Margaret Beckett and those who said Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
Bercow is unpleasant and from his general tone it is hardly a surprise that he has been found to be a bully, however Brexit is clearly more important than Bercow's behaviour! Presumably Beckett must have said something more than that for there to be any issue at all!?
"Brexit was more important than Bercow’s behaviour" meant keeping BollocksToBrexitMan as Speaker for his help against Brexit was more important whatever his misdemeanours.
"The Speaker, after being elected and approved, continues in that office during the whole Parliament, unless in the meantime they resign or are removed by death."
He could have been invited to take the opportunity to resign by the entire House withdrawing their confidence in him.
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
And half this morning's front pages.
I'm pretty sure Poland is remarking the number of refugees, too. Something which is very much part of the war.
But nice try.
And all over the BBC yesterday and today with interviews with some very eloquent people caught in the mess and photos of the posters put up by the British Authorities at Calais telling people 'tough'. It is the only reason I know.
Given we're not fighting or key to the diplomacy our main contribution apart from sanctions and aid is arguably on refugees. So the focus on this is perfectly appropriate imo.
We are fighting, by proxy, and Boris has been diplomatically pivotal. We are also absolutely crucial in the sanctions, freezing more Russian assets than anyone else
Otherwise, good point
"by proxy" ... "Boris pivotal" ... c'mon it's too early for this.
Sanctions, yes, as I said. We're big there. Since we run the Laundry we can unplug it.
It isn't "too early for this." On actual practical help for Ukraine in resisting Putin the UK has probably done more than any other country. It wasn't that long ago that RAF transporters were having to fly around German airspace to get the armaments to Kiev.
Quite remarkable contrast with the performance with the Home Office. That's why so many Tory MPs are angry and frustrated.
But the credits outweigh the debits.
Meanwhile Ian Blackford witters away about scrapping Trident. Jesus.
Using them would scrap them, is that what he means?
Let's rant about Bercow to distract from the ghastly set of crooks we elected Day comes round earlier every year.
See also Corbyn.
Are you excusing his behaviour
Do you think you could wind your neck in on demanding statements and assurances form other posters on every issue of the day? You're just another PB random, albeit on the sillier and more excitable end of the scale.
You really do not like being challenged do you
No doubt your mood reflects the end of your independence dream
What does your constant petted lip on being challenged reflect?
Odious little shit. Totally unsuited for the role he played. Classic small man bully. Not getting the peerage he so obviously craves is the least of it.
Ramming 10-20 people into an open top transporter with zero protection like that is suicidal. All would be killed in seconds if Ukrainian fighters saw them.
So it looks like all those old vehicles filmed on the train where really for the war.
Odious little shit. Totally unsuited for the role he played. Classic small man bully. Not getting the peerage he so obviously craves is the least of it.
On topic. Surely a calculation Boris will be making is how popular Vlad is with elements of his base. This can't be negligible - witness the soft spot Farage and Aaron Banks have. If they start thinking that, by taking in Ukrainian refugees, Boris is stepping on the great man's toes, then Boris may be inclined to let humanitarianism be damned. (Fortunately Boris can always let Priti off the leash in this regard, so can sidestep much of the taint of nastiness himself.)
I see that after the excitement of yesterday, the ruble has stabilised and recovered about half its losses. Still ~25% down on two days ago, and ~75% down on pre-"special military operation", though.
S&P futures point to a rebound today.
No real surprise in the absence of any major new developments. Oil continues its upward curve with WTI above $120 and Brent above $125 (Natural gas futures down today though).
I find it incredible we've gone in just two years from a collapse in demand and a glut of supply to surging demand and a supply problem. Two years ago you literally couldn't give a barrel of oil away - now it's above $120.
I can't believe such volatility works well for the global or British economy. I suppose the question is where the oil price goes from here - if we continue with military action in Ukraine but no further escalation I imagine we'll find a ceiling somewhere.
Best thing most of us can do for the Ukraine war effort is turn the thermostat down a degree and put a jumper on, and longer term get that insulation in. Insulate for victory. It's a win win win: denies Putin income, saves money, reduces carbon emissions.
Just watching parliament. Roger Gale (Tory MP) suggests Patel should have resigned for lying/misleading the House yesterday, and accuses Truss of the same. I wonder if Patel will last the week? She may try to take Truss down with her.
Ramming 10-20 people into an open top transporter with zero protection like that is suicidal. All would be killed in seconds if Ukrainian fighters saw them.
So it looks like all those old vehicles filmed on the train where really for the war.
There were rumours the Russians only had supplies up to last Sunday and were facing collapse shortly after. I have to say there's not much sign of this so far, perhaps was wishful thinking. But anecdotes like this cheer me up a bit.
Just watching parliament. Roger Gale (Tory MP) suggests Patel should have resigned for lying/misleading the House yesterday, and accuses Truss of the same. I wonder if Patel will last the week? She may try to take Truss down with her.
Sounds like they are both learning well from our PM and soon will be ready for promotion to liar-in-chief.
Odious little shit. Totally unsuited for the role he played. Classic small man bully. Not getting the peerage he so obviously craves is the least of it.
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
And half this morning's front pages.
I'm pretty sure Poland is remarking the number of refugees, too. Something which is very much part of the war.
But nice try.
And all over the BBC yesterday and today with interviews with some very eloquent people caught in the mess and photos of the posters put up by the British Authorities at Calais telling people 'tough'. It is the only reason I know.
Given we're not fighting or key to the diplomacy our main contribution apart from sanctions and aid is arguably on refugees. So the focus on this is perfectly appropriate imo.
We are fighting, by proxy, and Boris has been diplomatically pivotal. We are also absolutely crucial in the sanctions, freezing more Russian assets than anyone else
Otherwise, good point
"by proxy" ... "Boris pivotal" ... c'mon it's too early for this.
Sanctions, yes, as I said. We're big there. Since we run the Laundry we can unplug it.
It isn't "too early for this." On actual practical help for Ukraine in resisting Putin the UK has probably done more than any other country. It wasn't that long ago that RAF transporters were having to fly around German airspace to get the armaments to Kiev.
Quite remarkable contrast with the performance with the Home Office. That's why so many Tory MPs are angry and frustrated.
But the credits outweigh the debits.
Meanwhile Ian Blackford witters away about scrapping Trident. Jesus.
It is for me. I much prefer comedy in the evening. Of course we're helping - esp on sanctions - and apart from on refugees our response looks good and strong and balanced. But let's not pretend we're in the ring or that Boris Johnson is in any way "pivotal" to things. It's more that things are pivotal to him, to his political prospects.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
As Putin is so sure of himself and his actions in freeing Ukraine from the shackles of Nazi rule, maybe the Ukrainians should demand that Putin, his Generals and assorted Ministers attend The Hague, after all that is not a lot to ask as they know they are innocent and doing a job to save the Ukrainians. There can be no grounds for Putin to reject this request and continue the war.
I think making the second / third / fourth tier below Putin think they have no future in the world would be a good move. Make them think they will be prisoners in Russia, in hiding from the consequences of the actions of Putin in fear of arrest and trial, knowing any vision they had of travel or respectability is gone..
Odious little shit. Totally unsuited for the role he played. Classic small man bully. Not getting the peerage he so obviously craves is the least of it.
Scottish sub sample not to be highlited on PB today I imagine. LolDs on 2, 1pt less than the Greens..
Starmer will be pleased to be maintaining his lead despite all the fairly favourable coverage that Johnson is getting over Ukraine. I've been keeping an eye on the Tory Don't Know percentage, which I think they can reasonably count 50% of as a reserve - voters like BigG who really don't like Boris Johnson but seem (if I'm not misjudging him - just illustrating a general point) feel a magnetic pull towards voting Tory anyway. That was up in the high 20s but is now down in 19% of 2019 voters, vs 14% for Labour, not a big difference. So I'd speculate that the Labour lead has narrowed because some of the Tories offended by Partygate have drifted home.
The insane Scottish Tory subsample in yesterday's Redfield is back to a more normal 19% (vs 23 Lab, 47 SNP).
That's a good point about anti-Boris Tory voters. The problem with Boris's regime is that whenever he appears to have staggered out of the bog of contempt, he falls face-first into another swamp, as there are so many useless ministers in his cabinet who compound his own shortcomings. All the misgivings arise again for BigG type Tories.
If Boris is to survive longer-term he has to stop rewarding loyalists and appoint professionals. Bring in Hunt, Tugendhat, promote Mordaunt. Sack Patel, Rees-Mogg. But he won't, will he? And so we continue...
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
Is there not some logic to the opposite view? If Ukraine sign up to that compromise deal, we can all be at peace from tomorrow. It will save many lives for the future. We can make an argument for that?
Too much for Ukraine to surrender? You can’t trust Putin? Can’t give in to aggression?
In my opinion Putin sought a lot more than that outcome two weeks ago, before his disastrous military belly flop in front the laughing world and NATO note taking. He’s the one desperate for a ceasefire and withdraw to a new DMZ.
No Putin. Different Russia, turning its back on all that and wanting to show its distancing from this disaster, Putin’s barbarity, means this deal that saved lives by stopping the war is actually a deal junked for a better one for Ukraine.
On Putin’s terms only whilst there is Putin, is an argument with some logic to it?
If you are asking me to choose this horror on Ukrainians and their deaths must continue in order to remove Putin, I can’t choose that today, especially as I am in warm pyjamas on my new expensive sofa in a warm flat in Chelsea eating fresh fruit salad whilst they are suffering and turning up with faces set in horror on the borders - as Zellinskyy said they should be ploughing and sowing right now, and not just to feed themselves, not fighting and dying - at some point have to give peace a chance to resolve this?
Russia has £26 trillion in the UK, and only £40 billion in the EU? I don't believe it.
I don't either but there is a big difference between the UK and EU.
Thing is, it's not just about sanctions. Money laundering is a major service offering from the City of London, a centre of excellence if you will. It's how you might target particular Russian actors without undermining a whole industry that pretends not to speak its name.
Comments
Edit: Sorry, that should be Special Military Operations and Peace. Not used to the new code yet.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1501157450111664129?t=Ma_voVcy-cQurlmF_IGKAw&s=19
This represents 1% of Russian money in the UK,
0.8% of Russian money in the USA
98% of Russian money in the EU.
Source:
Same place Jacob Rees Mogg got his figures from.
(Credit @JohnWest_JAWS)
https://twitter.com/GregKemp4/status/1500512762723803139
Telegraph reporting analysts saying two more weeks of these kinds of losses for RU airforce and things are going to be really, really bad for them.
EU ambassadors meet this pm to discuss sanctioning up to 14 more oligarchs. SWIFT measures to be extended but not to Sberbank or Gazprombank, which are critical to some countries’ energy supplies. Counter cryptocurrency & banning Russian ships also on table, oil import ban isn’t.
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1501166587369467911
Putin's war is now increasingly looking bad for world business and China wont like that.
https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1501111329725325316
As you say, to be useful it has to happen very soon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60660385
Shows the diamond hard power of the UK and impotence of the EU when it comes to finance and sanctions then, doesn't it? Which is not a dig at the EU, they simply lack the power the UK and USA has when it comes to finance it seems. I fear this tweet demonstrates the opposite of what you intend..
Twitter is about to crash with the system not being able to cope. Insider says: “This is due to the unprecedented amount of John Bercow appreciation tweets currently being deleted by Labour and FBPE accounts”.
https://twitter.com/thatfoxxybloke/status/1501159477197873156
There was also former PM Abe popping up and saying Japan should develop nuclear weapons (shared with other countries) which I guess was aimed at creating an incentive for China to push Russia to deescalate.
They take the long view more often than not, and a weakened Russia dependent on Chinese economic support benefits them greatly.
You don’t give that up easily.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501170709661368324
LolDs on 2, 1pt less than the Greens..
FTPA could be a thing of the past by the end of next week.
If Japan starts making noises about the Kurils... all the forces from Siberia are in the wrong place. The Russians will certainly be unable to send reinforcements from there....
Japan doing its bit?
A “pop up” visa processing centre in Lille, France, will be set up for Ukrainian refugees fleeing conflict in “the coming days”, Downing Street has now confirmed.
The announcement comes as the Home Office has faced mounting criticism over its confused handling of resettling eligible Ukrainians in Britain.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1501171175619272709
Bercow's public life is over
A financial contribution appears to me more appropriate and more likely to be beneficial.
Well done.
There is more attention paid to Victor Orban than Boris Johnson
Ramming 10-20 people into an open top transporter with zero protection like that is suicidal. All would be killed in seconds if Ukrainian fighters saw them.
I have now accepted I may not see an independent Scotland in my lifetime unless I live to a grand old age
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_debate_in_the_Scottish_National_Party
[edit: I don't think current ministerial behaviour is the right baseline to use]
"The Speaker, after being elected and approved, continues in that office during the whole Parliament, unless in the meantime they resign or are removed by death."
Just think, we could have had Sir George Young and Margaret Beckett instead of those two.
I don't think Sir Lindsey is particularly great, but at least he's not embarrassingly incompetent or embarrassingly narcissistic.
Sanctions, yes, as I said. We're big there. Since we run the Laundry we can unplug it.
Are there charities on the borders who need volunteers you can help?
See also Corbyn.
The insane Scottish Tory subsample in yesterday's Redfield is back to a more normal 19% (vs 23 Lab, 47 SNP).
https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/28902686-865d-48ea-ba23-90aa2aebd061
Five Eyes countries also taking biometric data. Fake documents already being presented at Calais.
Quite remarkable contrast with the performance with the Home Office. That's why so many Tory MPs are angry and frustrated.
But the credits outweigh the debits.
Meanwhile Ian Blackford witters away about scrapping Trident. Jesus.
Just as latching onto the word Brexit in that tweet is.
Shows quite well the 2 stage launch. Noisy soundtrack. Not gory.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1501149671229636608
“…and did you knowingly lie to the house yesterday, or genuinely didn’t know the top point on your own action plan?”
I find it incredible we've gone in just two years from a collapse in demand and a glut of supply to surging demand and a supply problem. Two years ago you literally couldn't give a barrel of oil away - now it's above $120.
I can't believe such volatility works well for the global or British economy. I suppose the question is where the oil price goes from here - if we continue with military action in Ukraine but no further escalation I imagine we'll find a ceiling somewhere.
International court of justice to fast-track ruling on Russian invasion
Ukraine accuses Moscow of illegally justifying war with false genocide claim
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/07/international-court-of-justice-to-fast-track-ruling-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine
No doubt your mood reflects the end of your independence dream
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1353272/Sally-Bercow-posing-sheet-reveals-Speaker-husband-Johns-bedroom-secrets.html
I wonder if she and Liz Truss could be persuaded round to my place for coffee?
Fair comment
Make it personal
If Boris is to survive longer-term he has to stop rewarding loyalists and appoint professionals. Bring in Hunt, Tugendhat, promote Mordaunt. Sack Patel, Rees-Mogg. But he won't, will he? And so we continue...
Too much for Ukraine to surrender? You can’t trust Putin? Can’t give in to aggression?
In my opinion Putin sought a lot more than that outcome two weeks ago, before his disastrous military belly flop in front the laughing world and NATO note taking. He’s the one desperate for a ceasefire and withdraw to a new DMZ.
No Putin. Different Russia, turning its back on all that and wanting to show its distancing from this disaster, Putin’s barbarity, means this deal that saved lives by stopping the war is actually a deal junked for a better one for Ukraine.
On Putin’s terms only whilst there is Putin, is an argument with some logic to it?
If you are asking me to choose this horror on Ukrainians and their deaths must continue in order to remove Putin, I can’t choose that today, especially as I am in warm pyjamas on my new expensive sofa in a warm flat in Chelsea eating fresh fruit salad whilst they are suffering and turning up with faces set in horror on the borders - as Zellinskyy said they should be ploughing and sowing right now, and not just to feed themselves, not fighting and dying - at some point have to give peace a chance to resolve this?
Thing is, it's not just about sanctions. Money laundering is a major service offering from the City of London, a centre of excellence if you will. It's how you might target particular Russian actors without undermining a whole industry that pretends not to speak its name.
Guess what? Putin decided it will service these interest payments in worthless Roubles.
I'm pretty sure bond-holders won't be happy.
Financial markets are getting ready
https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1501181406193623044