To "needs improvement" because too many pupils spend their time discussing identity rather than learning the subjects on the curriculum. It is really quite damning.
Jake Wallis Simons wrote about this in Jewish Chronicle the other day.
If you even think about joining NATO we will invade you. If you are in NATO we probably won't. Therefore, please stop wanting to join NATO.
8n the future, the EU will have its own defence force, that could defend RUkraine. Of course, I don't see how that's any better for Russia. But I suppose it won't be lead by the US or include the UK. So perhaps its more palatable.
I expect the UK will be very much part of the EU defence planning and indeed a closer relationship all round
I doubt it, and I most certainly hope not. An independent army is an essential feature of a free country.
So Scotland isn't a free country?
Most certainly is NOT. We are ruled by bour much bigger neighbour who will not let us be independent or join the EU. Strange parallels with just the bombs missing.
Your absurdity is barely exceeded these days by your language. The only people stopping Scottish independence are Scottish voters.
How does that work? Scottish voters just turned out in record numbers to vote in a national election to elect a record number of pro-independence MSPs. And are being told no by the Essicks Massiv, that however we vote we can't have it.
A 'once in a generation vote'.
That is a bare faced lie, show me where in the Edinburgh agreement that was written, and do not give me the bollox fact that Salmond said on a broadcast that it was a once in ageneration chance. BARE FACED LIE.
It was in the Scottish Government’s prospectus “Scotland’s Future”.
In black and white.
Written down.
Not some “off the cuff” remark in a TV interview as some of the more credulous Nats like to claim.
Bloody hell, was it worth carrying this over from a previous thread? For the millionth bloody time, he wasn't and had no right to bind anyone to any future course of action. It's just a thing people say at referendums.
And OK it's an ad hominem point but why sit on bloody Jersey trying to bully the Scots? Either move to the Hebrides, or concentrate your fire on the Sark separatists.
Are the only people allowed to have an opinion on the future of the U.K. resident in the Hebrides?
I’m just interested in keeping Malc straight on the facts - we are all entitled to our own opinions, but not our own facts.
And the “once in a generation” was in an official Scottish Government publication, not some “off the cuff remark”.
I am open to the argument that it’s optimistic to believe much the SNP says, but them’s the facts of what they wrote.
No, it's just the relentless peering through other peoples' front curtains. When you are not telling Malc he has to belong in the UK you are telling the rest of us how grateful and happy we are to live in Brexit Britain. Come and try it.
I note you have no answer to Malc’s “wrong” facts.
Since you appear to have developed a stalkerish interest in my physical location I now live in “Brexit Britain”.
And for your general education, Sark is part of the Bailiwick of Guernsey, not Jersey. And in irony of ironies had democracy imposed on it against the popular will….
I have rehearsed for the 3m th time why your point is utter nonsense. It suggests you think that a campaigning pamphlet can arbitrarily suspend a national right recognises by the UN. It is just embarrassing garbage.
Glad to welcome you into the fold. It's nice here.
As I wrote, we are all entitled to our own opinions, not our own facts.
And it wasn’t a “Campaigning Pamphlet” it was a 600+ page White Paper Prospectus for independence.
It was a large political pamphlet , nothing whatsoever in the agreement and even if there was it would be against International Law. Stop digging, Australia beckons.
Quite correctly arrested for dangerous driving. The embassy might reflect on their reaction to this outrage, though.
“The embassy strongly condemns this criminal act of insanity directed against a peaceful diplomatic mission. The embassy views this incident as a clear and blatant violation of the article 22 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic relations of 1961. “The embassy is in contact with the Department of Foreign Affairs of Ireland, demanding that the Irish authorities take comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of its staff and their family members. “The incident is cause of extreme concern. We believe that no people of sound mind could support such senseless and barbaric actions,” the spokeswoman said.
I am delighted to find that the road the Russian Embassy is on is called Orwell Road. For such masters of propaganda and disinformation it is magnificently appropriate.
What road is the UK Russian embassy on? We should rename it Nemtsov street.
So, is the Polish planes to Ukraine not happening now ☹️
I just heard Ben Wallace saying he’s blocked it?
He was on R4 this morning saying that the matter was entirely up to the Poles. Which it is (along with the US and their willingness to rapidly supply replacement aircraft).
I sensed a great deal of equivocation on the matter, he didn't need to make such a bland response.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
If you even think about joining NATO we will invade you. If you are in NATO we probably won't. Therefore, please stop wanting to join NATO.
8n the future, the EU will have its own defence force, that could defend RUkraine. Of course, I don't see how that's any better for Russia. But I suppose it won't be lead by the US or include the UK. So perhaps its more palatable.
I expect the UK will be very much part of the EU defence planning and indeed a closer relationship all round
I doubt it, and I most certainly hope not. An independent army is an essential feature of a free country.
So Scotland isn't a free country?
Most certainly is NOT. We are ruled by bour much bigger neighbour who will not let us be independent or join the EU. Strange parallels with just the bombs missing.
Your absurdity is barely exceeded these days by your language. The only people stopping Scottish independence are Scottish voters.
How does that work? Scottish voters just turned out in record numbers to vote in a national election to elect a record number of pro-independence MSPs. And are being told no by the Essicks Massiv, that however we vote we can't have it.
A 'once in a generation vote'.
That is a bare faced lie, show me where in the Edinburgh agreement that was written, and do not give me the bollox fact that Salmond said on a broadcast that it was a once in ageneration chance. BARE FACED LIE.
It was in the Scottish Government’s prospectus “Scotland’s Future”.
In black and white.
Written down.
Not some “off the cuff” remark in a TV interview as some of the more credulous Nats like to claim.
Bloody hell, was it worth carrying this over from a previous thread? For the millionth bloody time, he wasn't and had no right to bind anyone to any future course of action. It's just a thing people say at referendums.
And OK it's an ad hominem point but why sit on bloody Jersey trying to bully the Scots? Either move to the Hebrides, or concentrate your fire on the Sark separatists.
Are the only people allowed to have an opinion on the future of the U.K. resident in the Hebrides?
I’m just interested in keeping Malc straight on the facts - we are all entitled to our own opinions, but not our own facts.
And the “once in a generation” was in an official Scottish Government publication, not some “off the cuff remark”.
I am open to the argument that it’s optimistic to believe much the SNP says, but them’s the facts of what they wrote.
Your facts are mostly misrepresented propaganda. Where in the signed treaty does it state this great FACT. Having it in some political pamphlets or other blurb does not make it a fact and part of the agreement. Ergo manifesto's which are never ever implemented. You have a strange idea of what constitutes a FACT.
You’re not your usual sunny, genial self malcy. Normally I come to your comments with the expectation of reading decorous witticisms, framed with elegant politesse.
Yet today you are positively RUDE
I don’t suppose this has anything to do with the SNP admitting there won’t be any indyref soon, thus effectively putting off the next one until the mid 2030s?
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
And half this morning's front pages.
I'm pretty sure Poland is remarking the number of refugees, too. Something which is very much part of the war.
But nice try.
I said CALAIS refugees. Not just “refugees”. Of course the movement of potentially 5m people in Europe is enormously important. But the number stuck at the English channel due to a HMG SNAFU is tiny
But nice try
So a competent Minister, or even departmental official, ought to be able to deal with it in short order.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Very interesting thread from the Navalny camp on Russian public opinion. it seems to be turning against the war, rather than hardening.
1/14 Whether Russians actually support the hideous war that Putin has waged against Ukraine is a matter of utmost political importance. The answer to this question will largely define Russia’s place in the history of the 21st century. https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1501123330262380551
There must be a point when even the loyalists who continue to believe in the saving Ukraine from the Nazis guff think that the war situation has developed not necessarily to Russia’s advantage. I have to think economic sanctions will have more effect in this regard than made up numbers about how many Russian choppers have been shot down.
One also has to ask, why would any Ukrainian refugee - having escaped bombed out Kharkiv, afterwards fleeing to Lviv, then crossing to the border - thereafter make their way by bus train and car all the way across Europe. To Calais?!
What’s the point in that? Are you actually hoping to cross in a terribly dangerous dinghy? Why do that, when you can turn up at the british Embassy in Paris - or anywhere - and get your documents stamped and you’re in the UK safely? No boats required?
I can see why HMG is somewhat suspicious
You twit. These are the wives, daughters, relatives etc of British citizens who have driven all the way to Poland to pick up their wives, daughters and relatives. Do you not watch the news. People with English names and English accents who are as English as you and I who happen to have married a Ukrainian and therefore have Ukrainian spouses, children, relatives who they have rescued and are now being stopped at Calais.
Absolutely. But bear in mind that government policy is that children and spouses of UK citizens have no automatic right to live here unless they meet certain conditions like earning well over median UK incomes. This policy has always been utterly vile but it can't be waived selectively for one group of people but not others. And it is odd seeing enthusiastic supporters of the government and its brutal hostile environment immigration regime suddenly calling for an open door. Still, good to see people are having a change of heart.
It’s not an utterly vile policy. Every stable country on earth has a similarly “vile policy”. You can’t just go abroad and marry someone and then immediately expect that spouse to have automatic right to live in the UK. For a start that’s an invitation to rapacious British people to just marry people abroad, to give them a passport, multiple times, for money
I have reluctantly reached the conclusion you might be a little bit dim
It is a vile policy, because the income threshold is deliberately set far too high. The goal is nothing to do with fairness and human dignity, but to act as a deterrant. The worst part, as I understand it, is that people who live overseas with foreign spouses cannot ever easily move back home with their family. Of course there is an exemption for the rich and very high earners though. Of course.
This is all a legacy of the pathological obsession with reducing net migration, from around 2010 onwards. This was emboldened by Brexit, which is viewed as being caused by concerns about immigration. Nothing is off limits, and no amount of consequential human tragedy and ruined lives will ever deter the government, in this respect. They believe that they are on the side of public opinion. It is a calculated policy to harm the lives of a minority, to serve the prejudices of a majority.
I have friends who have been through this particular nightmare, so I am highly sympathetic. The UK’s “income” stipulation is clumsy to the point of cruelty.
My point was that no western country allows automatic residency and right-to-work just because you get married. Eg the USA has the famous Green Card, entailing this:
“Marriage-Based Green Card Timeline
The total processing time for a marriage-based green card is anywhere from 9-36 months, depending on whether you’re married to a U.S. citizen or a U.S. green card holder (lawful permanent resident)”
Up to THREE years. It’s not easy. It’s likewise a deterrent
The income threshold for a marriage visa is less than 19k GBP. That is substantially less than the level of income needed to be a net contributor the Treasury. Given the abuse of the system by arranged marriages from the sub-continent, it seems reasonable.
I would be happy to replace it with marriage visas needing to meet the same criteria as unmarried partners, in terms of having to be a genuine relationship for two years, plus restoration of the Primary Purpose rule.
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
And half this morning's front pages.
I'm pretty sure Poland is remarking the number of refugees, too. Something which is very much part of the war.
But nice try.
I said CALAIS refugees. Not just “refugees”. Of course the movement of potentially 5m people in Europe is enormously important. But the number stuck at the English channel due to a HMG SNAFU is tiny
But nice try
So a competent Minister, or even departmental official, ought to be able to deal with it in short order.
To "needs improvement" because too many pupils spend their time discussing identity rather than learning the subjects on the curriculum. It is really quite damning.
Jake Wallis Simons wrote about this in Jewish Chronicle the other day.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
You could ask the EU. After 3 years (almost) experience of negotiating with our current PM and his cronies.......
So, is the Polish planes to Ukraine not happening now ☹️
I just heard Ben Wallace saying he’s blocked it?
He was on R4 this morning saying that the matter was entirely up to the Poles. Which it is (along with the US and their willingness to rapidly supply replacement aircraft).
The last thing I saw on this is that the US is trying to setup a 3 way deal - the Poles give the Ukrainians the Mig 29s, and other allies contribute/lend spare fighters until the planed replacements for the Polish Migs arrive.
All of which could be sorted out pretty quickly if the will was there to provide the Ukrainians with the capacity to maintain an effective air force in the face of losses. The fact that this is being so drawn out suggests that the unwillingness of NATO to get involved in the air extends to indirect support and well beyond opposition to a no fly zone.
One also has to ask, why would any Ukrainian refugee - having escaped bombed out Kharkiv, afterwards fleeing to Lviv, then crossing to the border - thereafter make their way by bus train and car all the way across Europe. To Calais?!
What’s the point in that? Are you actually hoping to cross in a terribly dangerous dinghy? Why do that, when you can turn up at the british Embassy in Paris - or anywhere - and get your documents stamped and you’re in the UK safely? No boats required?
I can see why HMG is somewhat suspicious
You twit. These are the wives, daughters, relatives etc of British citizens who have driven all the way to Poland to pick up their wives, daughters and relatives. Do you not watch the news. People with English names and English accents who are as English as you and I who happen to have married a Ukrainian and therefore have Ukrainian spouses, children, relatives who they have rescued and are now being stopped at Calais.
Absolutely. But bear in mind that government policy is that children and spouses of UK citizens have no automatic right to live here unless they meet certain conditions like earning well over median UK incomes. This policy has always been utterly vile but it can't be waived selectively for one group of people but not others. And it is odd seeing enthusiastic supporters of the government and its brutal hostile environment immigration regime suddenly calling for an open door. Still, good to see people are having a change of heart.
It’s not an utterly vile policy. Every stable country on earth has a similarly “vile policy”. You can’t just go abroad and marry someone and then immediately expect that spouse to have automatic right to live in the UK. For a start that’s an invitation to rapacious British people to just marry people abroad, to give them a passport, multiple times, for money
I have reluctantly reached the conclusion you might be a little bit dim
It is a vile policy, because the income threshold is deliberately set far too high. The goal is nothing to do with fairness and human dignity, but to act as a deterrant. The worst part, as I understand it, is that people who live overseas with foreign spouses cannot ever easily move back home with their family. Of course there is an exemption for the rich and very high earners though. Of course.
This is all a legacy of the pathological obsession with reducing net migration, from around 2010 onwards. This was emboldened by Brexit, which is viewed as being caused by concerns about immigration. Nothing is off limits, and no amount of consequential human tragedy and ruined lives will ever deter the government, in this respect. They believe that they are on the side of public opinion. It is a calculated policy to harm the lives of a minority, to serve the prejudices of a majority.
I have friends who have been through this particular nightmare, so I am highly sympathetic. The UK’s “income” stipulation is clumsy to the point of cruelty.
My point was that no western country allows automatic residency and right-to-work just because you get married. Eg the USA has the famous Green Card, entailing this:
“Marriage-Based Green Card Timeline
The total processing time for a marriage-based green card is anywhere from 9-36 months, depending on whether you’re married to a U.S. citizen or a U.S. green card holder (lawful permanent resident)”
Up to THREE years. It’s not easy. It’s likewise a deterrent
The income threshold for a marriage visa is less than 19k GBP. That is substantially less than the level of income needed to be a net contributor the Treasury. Given the abuse of the system by arranged marriages from the sub-continent, it seems reasonable.
I would be happy to replace it with marriage visas needing to meet the same criteria as unmarried partners, in terms of having to be a genuine relationship for two years, plus restoration of the Primary Purpose rule.
Yes, I agree with that, too
Gosh, I’m agreeing with everyone. I surely need a coffee
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
Even some of his fiercest critics are admitting that Boris is working well with Zelenskyy and is being a good ally of Ukraine in the war, so of course certain people would rather we refocus onto other stuff instead of dealing with the war.
I would rather we be more generous to refugees flying them in from Poland (not Calais) but the top priority has to be winning the war.
An intelligent forum like this has no difficulty distinguishing between the positive actions of the PM in his dealings with Zelensky and other foreign leaders on the one hand, and the unanswered questions on Boris's charge sheet on the other.
We can deal with the latter in due course. First things first my friend.
I agree with that 100%
It's the silly people that Leon is spending too much time looking at* that are wanting to deal with the latter right this second and make that the number one story.
* why anyone would ever consider Twitter important is beyond me.
Quite correctly arrested for dangerous driving. The embassy might reflect on their reaction to this outrage, though.
“The embassy strongly condemns this criminal act of insanity directed against a peaceful diplomatic mission. The embassy views this incident as a clear and blatant violation of the article 22 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic relations of 1961. “The embassy is in contact with the Department of Foreign Affairs of Ireland, demanding that the Irish authorities take comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of its staff and their family members. “The incident is cause of extreme concern. We believe that no people of sound mind could support such senseless and barbaric actions,” the spokeswoman said.
I am delighted to find that the road the Russian Embassy is on is called Orwell Road. For such masters of propaganda and disinformation it is magnificently appropriate.
What road is the UK Russian embassy on? We should rename it Nemtsov street.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 3h COLUMN: Oil, gas, coal and electricity prices are surging simultaneously. The world hasn't seen such an energy shock since the 1970s oil crisis. We need to start conserving energy immediately. Now | via @bopinion #Ukraine #OOTT #ONGT #CoalTwitter
To "needs improvement" because too many pupils spend their time discussing identity rather than learning the subjects on the curriculum. It is really quite damning.
Jake Wallis Simons wrote about this in Jewish Chronicle the other day.
I suspect in the future this school will become the norm rather than the exception as these ideas have been gaining traction for years.
Only a fool is going to pay £32K pa for a school which "needs improvement". There are plenty of good private schools in the area. And state ones. Parents want their children to learn not have their heads filled with rubbish ideology.
So, is the Polish planes to Ukraine not happening now ☹️
I just heard Ben Wallace saying he’s blocked it?
He was on R4 this morning saying that the matter was entirely up to the Poles. Which it is (along with the US and their willingness to rapidly supply replacement aircraft).
The last thing I saw on this is that the US is trying to setup a 3 way deal - the Poles give the Ukrainians the Mig 29s, and other allies contribute/lend spare fighters until the planed replacements for the Polish Migs arrive.
All of which could be sorted out pretty quickly if the will was there to provide the Ukrainians with the capacity to maintain an effective air force in the face of losses. The fact that this is being so drawn out suggests that the unwillingness of NATO to get involved in the air extends to indirect support and well beyond opposition to a no fly zone.
Well, you have the fact that
- The only vaguely suitable aircraft are Mig29s - The Polish ones have been upgraded with Western electronics - So training issues, security issues - There is also an escalation issue if shot down - The Poles won't want a gap in their airforce - The aircraft that the Poles can use now are either Mig29s or F16 C/D models - They have F35 on order, but they may not have any pilots trained to use them - So to replace the Polish MIgs would require, probably, F16s of the right model. C/D is quite ancient.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
On the control of the Russian media and internally selling a "win" that may be problematic for the regime as time goes on with returning soldiers, external sources of info trickling in, middle class Russians with international links, Russians with links to Ukraine and other parts of E Europe. Putin has crossed a sort of event horizon in my opinion. I think that Russia is now destabilised and that a range of scenarios are in play. There is danger of nuclear conflict with some of them (Putin's narcissistic madness, civil war in Russia and failed state with ultra nationalist factions in control of bombs). The minimum short term upheaval would follow the internal elimination of Putin and withdrawal with a fig leaf for the military.
I'm sure our more with it police forces and local authorities will be flying the appropriate flags, painting road crossings & sending out self-congratulatory tweets etc.
The only thing to read today is Anthony Lloyd's report on the front page of the Times. You need a strong stomach mind.
Being married to an International Woman I made her breakfast this morning. It was the least I could do.
Being married to a Scot I did the same and gave it to her in bed
Too much information
At our ages I think the meaning is clear to be honest !!!
75 is the new 35, BigG. So no need to change your name yet.
👀I think Liz Truss may have just announced the location of the Home Office's new 'pop-up' visa centre for Ukrainian refugees in France. It is not in Calais, it is in Lille, almost 75 miles away. Home Office spox refused to say where it was just 20 mins ago. https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1501161421471633409
Just about to read the Bercow report, and I can see that at the very start he argued he was not covered by the bullying and harassment policy - always a bad sign when someone argues that approach.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Forward, the Light Brigade!” Was there a man dismayed? Not though the soldier knew Someone had blundered. Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die. Into the valley of Death Rode the six hundred.
interesting - last week, Lenta, London-listed massive Russian retailer/second largest hypermarket operator, put limits on what one person could buy instore/online - cereals, tea, canned meat and fish, oils, toilet paper, nappies etc…
So, is the Polish planes to Ukraine not happening now ☹️
I just heard Ben Wallace saying he’s blocked it?
He was on R4 this morning saying that the matter was entirely up to the Poles. Which it is (along with the US and their willingness to rapidly supply replacement aircraft).
I sensed a great deal of equivocation on the matter, he didn't need to make such a bland response.
He was supportive of the idea, while acknowledging that it carried risks for Poland of a direct Russian response, and was therefore their choice, not ours (and re-emphasised our support for them as NATO allies should they go for it).
I wonder whether the hesitation is on the part of Poland, or the US.
Quite correctly arrested for dangerous driving. The embassy might reflect on their reaction to this outrage, though.
“The embassy strongly condemns this criminal act of insanity directed against a peaceful diplomatic mission. The embassy views this incident as a clear and blatant violation of the article 22 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic relations of 1961. “The embassy is in contact with the Department of Foreign Affairs of Ireland, demanding that the Irish authorities take comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of its staff and their family members. “The incident is cause of extreme concern. We believe that no people of sound mind could support such senseless and barbaric actions,” the spokeswoman said.
I am delighted to find that the road the Russian Embassy is on is called Orwell Road. For such masters of propaganda and disinformation it is magnificently appropriate.
What road is the UK Russian embassy on? We should rename it Nemtsov street.
Zelensky Avenue
(Assuming that "Russian warship. Go fuck yourself" will be vetoed.)
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 3h COLUMN: Oil, gas, coal and electricity prices are surging simultaneously. The world hasn't seen such an energy shock since the 1970s oil crisis. We need to start conserving energy immediately. Now | via @bopinion #Ukraine #OOTT #ONGT #CoalTwitter
I’m surprised no government has tried a “turn down your thermostat 1 degree” to help Ukraine/reduce CO2/save money which ever message has most traction…
Criticism of Patel seems to be based on the implicit assumption that, like a Bond villain, she commands an army of fully-trained Ukrainian-speaking guards on permanent stand-by but has inexplicably failed to deploy them.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
Well they're negotiating in Belarus and shortly on more neutral territory in Antalya. Turkey is probably as good a place as any, a historic enemy of Russia but more than happy to keep trading with them, and supplying Bayraktars against them.
👀I think Liz Truss may have just announced the location of the Home Office's new 'pop-up' visa centre for Ukrainian refugees in France. It is not in Calais, it is in Lille, almost 75 miles away. Home Office spox refused to say where it was just 20 mins ago. https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1501161421471633409
To "needs improvement" because too many pupils spend their time discussing identity rather than learning the subjects on the curriculum. It is really quite damning.
Jake Wallis Simons wrote about this in Jewish Chronicle the other day.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
On the control of the Russian media and internally selling a "win" that may be problematic for the regime as time goes on with returning soldiers, external sources of info trickling in, middle class Russians with international links, Russians with links to Ukraine and other parts of E Europe. Putin has crossed a sort of event horizon in my opinion. I think that Russia is now destabilised and that a range of scenarios are in play. There is danger of nuclear conflict with some of them (Putin's narcissistic madness, civil war in Russia and failed state with ultra nationalist factions in control of bombs). The minimum short term upheaval would follow the internal elimination of Putin and withdrawal with a fig leaf for the military.
The best thing would be a replacement of Putin and everything blamed on him as having gone mad. A new leader turning the page with a new glasnost, with state media reporting all the lies he had got them to say. Then a friendship treaty signed between Ukraine and Russia to show it was just Putin the baddie as the issue.
Patel is actually not a million miles from public opinion on this.
While 76% of British voters back taking in some Ukranian refugees, as we are, just 15% of British voters are willing to accept hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees into the UK
As usual in these polls people generally picked a middle option. But there has always been a willingness to accept genuine refugees from a desperate situation if they came through an official channel. The way we're making the official channel as difficult as possible does not reflect most people's wishes as they see the catastrophe unfolding on their sscreens.
Responsibility for resettling refugees in my borough is in my portfolio. We've received exactly three families through the Home Office system so far. We've said repeatedly that we'll be glad to take more, and I know many other boroughs are doing the same. Instead, the Government is housing large numbers of Afghans in hostels at taxpayers' expense while they ponder the paperwork, and making the process ludicrously difficult for Ukrainians.
Why?
Serious Q, @NickPalmer . I agree with you on the process - far too complex and BJ has a tin ear if he thinks it is justified.
Do you struggle to find accommodation, given that the UK has spent 20 years clamping down on empty homes, and long-term empties are now at around 300k only?
Where would you put your share of the proposed 200k, if that many come?
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 3h COLUMN: Oil, gas, coal and electricity prices are surging simultaneously. The world hasn't seen such an energy shock since the 1970s oil crisis. We need to start conserving energy immediately. Now | via @bopinion #Ukraine #OOTT #ONGT #CoalTwitter
I’m surprised no government has tried a “turn down your thermostat 1 degree” to help Ukraine/reduce CO2/save money which ever message has most traction…
My thermostat is at 16, any cooler and it's not healthy/damp problems.
🇺🇦Ukraine: clears a humanitarian corridor for Mariupol civilians from landmines and barbed wire. 🇷🇺Russia: starts an offensive on Mariupol via the humanitarian corridor.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 3h COLUMN: Oil, gas, coal and electricity prices are surging simultaneously. The world hasn't seen such an energy shock since the 1970s oil crisis. We need to start conserving energy immediately. Now | via @bopinion #Ukraine #OOTT #ONGT #CoalTwitter
I’m surprised no government has tried a “turn down your thermostat 1 degree” to help Ukraine/reduce CO2/save money which ever message has most traction…
Dutch friends visiting a week ago told us there was a 'put on a jumper for Ukraine' campaign there, not sure whether it was government linked though.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I think Ukraine can win this war. Russia is a few weeks from being on its knees, every day that passes without Ukraine surrendering is a day closer to a Ukrainian victory.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
The Ukrainians will not accept that deal unless the West starts blackmailing them with the end of sanctions and military supplies. If that happens, I would hope Britain would call it out.
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
And half this morning's front pages.
I'm pretty sure Poland is remarking the number of refugees, too. Something which is very much part of the war.
But nice try.
And all over the BBC yesterday and today with interviews with some very eloquent people caught in the mess and photos of the posters put up by the British Authorities at Calais telling people 'tough'. It is the only reason I know.
Given we're not fighting or key to the diplomacy our main contribution apart from sanctions and aid is arguably on refugees. So the focus on this is perfectly appropriate imo.
🇺🇦Ukraine: clears a humanitarian corridor for Mariupol civilians from landmines and barbed wire. 🇷🇺Russia: starts an offensive on Mariupol via the humanitarian corridor.
🇺🇦Ukraine: clears a humanitarian corridor for Mariupol civilians from landmines and barbed wire. 🇷🇺Russia: starts an offensive on Mariupol via the humanitarian corridor.
On the control of the Russian media and internally selling a "win" that may be problematic for the regime as time goes on with returning soldiers, external sources of info trickling in, middle class Russians with international links, Russians with links to Ukraine and other parts of E Europe. Putin has crossed a sort of event horizon in my opinion. I think that Russia is now destabilised and that a range of scenarios are in play. There is danger of nuclear conflict with some of them (Putin's narcissistic madness, civil war in Russia and failed state with ultra nationalist factions in control of bombs). The minimum short term upheaval would follow the internal elimination of Putin and withdrawal with a fig leaf for the military.
Russia could to an extent hide the war from its people. It cannot hide the economy, even the stupidest Putinist will eventually realise that something has gone badly wrong.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
So, is the Polish planes to Ukraine not happening now ☹️
I just heard Ben Wallace saying he’s blocked it?
He was on R4 this morning saying that the matter was entirely up to the Poles. Which it is (along with the US and their willingness to rapidly supply replacement aircraft).
The last thing I saw on this is that the US is trying to setup a 3 way deal - the Poles give the Ukrainians the Mig 29s, and other allies contribute/lend spare fighters until the planed replacements for the Polish Migs arrive.
All of which could be sorted out pretty quickly if the will was there to provide the Ukrainians with the capacity to maintain an effective air force in the face of losses. The fact that this is being so drawn out suggests that the unwillingness of NATO to get involved in the air extends to indirect support and well beyond opposition to a no fly zone.
Well, you have the fact that
- The only vaguely suitable aircraft are Mig29s - The Polish ones have been upgraded with Western electronics - So training issues, security issues - There is also an escalation issue if shot down - The Poles won't want a gap in their airforce - The aircraft that the Poles can use now are either Mig29s or F16 C/D models - They have F35 on order, but they may not have any pilots trained to use them - So to replace the Polish MIgs would require, probably, F16s of the right model. C/D is quite ancient.
Is one reason the West don't want a no-fly zone that they don't want the Russians looking at our latest kit (In the event of crashes etc)?
One also has to ask, why would any Ukrainian refugee - having escaped bombed out Kharkiv, afterwards fleeing to Lviv, then crossing to the border - thereafter make their way by bus train and car all the way across Europe. To Calais?!
What’s the point in that? Are you actually hoping to cross in a terribly dangerous dinghy? Why do that, when you can turn up at the british Embassy in Paris - or anywhere - and get your documents stamped and you’re in the UK safely? No boats required?
I can see why HMG is somewhat suspicious
Don't be stupid. Unlike Dominic Raab, most people know that the Calais-Dover link is the main UK link to the continent. It should therefore be easiest for it to deal with large numbers of extra people (which will make the tickets cheaper) on huge passenger ferries. None of the Ukrainians are going there to take a ferry across the channel, or climb into the back of a lorry.
They just didn't expect the British government to be so inhumane as to force them to spend days or weeks waiting for a visa to be issued, when no-one else in Europe is being so obstructive.
Japanese military experts have noticed that a large number of military personnel stationed in Japan's Northern Territory illegally occupied by the Russian Federation, are currently located in Ukraine, our sources say https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501152306825412608
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
Minor problem.
The Russian forces can't move, forwards or backwards
I think Putin and Russia have crossed an event horizon. There is no going back to anything like the previous situation. Putin with one of the most ill-judged military decisions of modern history has destabilised Russia. That does mean some risk for everyone including nuclear conflict.
Temporary stabilisation via a coup and ending of hostilities? Internal upheaval, a second (or third) revolution, civil war? Optimistically a sort of velvet revolution to try democracy rebooted?
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
The biggest ally in stopping the war may actually be China.
For a start - and this is why the Russians won't go nuke even if they wanted to in a limited sense - what the Chinese certainly do not want is a nuke dropped because, overnight, Japan / S Korea / Taiwan would automatically switch to a policy of having nuclear weapons.
Secondly, China is the world's biggest importer of oil plus a whole range of commodities which are seeing massive hikes (as well as the cost of shipping etc). There is a question of how much this will impact the Chinese GDP growth plans but the chances are quite significantly.
Thirdly, the war is heightening the world's response to military action, which obviously impacts any plans China may have with Taiwan.
Would be interesting to know the pressure on Moscow from China.
Latest update from the Ukrainian high command on Russian losses. Note the 80 helicopters lost suggest that the attack on 30 being reported yesterday was indeed correct.
"The enemy's losses. Operative information from General Headquarters. - military personnel: more than 12 thousand people; - tanks: 303; - armored fighting vehicles: 1036; - artillery systems: 120; - multiple launch rocket systems: 56; - units of air defense equipment: 27; - aircraft – 48; - helicopters – 80; - automobile vehicles – 474; - warship/speed boats – 3; - cisterns with fuel and lubricants – 60; - unmanned aerial vehicles: 7"
But we already have the helicopter claim from the Ukr authorities, so it will also be in their bulletin.
We do not yet have an independent fillum of that.
This was March 2nd: The number of dead Russian soldiers is now so unfathomably large that they are being buried in mass graves in order to avert contamination», — says the Secretary of the Head of the MIA, Anton Herashenko. https://twitter.com/PatrykChodurski/status/1499130511683469312
(Warning: bodies on link)
I hope that DNA samples are being kept where possible to pass to the Red Cross - judging by how well organised the Ukr govt is, that should be happening.
To "needs improvement" because too many pupils spend their time discussing identity rather than learning the subjects on the curriculum. It is really quite damning.
Jake Wallis Simons wrote about this in Jewish Chronicle the other day.
I suspect in the future this school will become the norm rather than the exception as these ideas have been gaining traction for years.
Only a fool is going to pay £32K pa for a school which "needs improvement". There are plenty of good private schools in the area. And state ones. Parents want their children to learn not have their heads filled with rubbish ideology.
Far be it from me to defend a private school, but the Ofsted inspection was prompted by parental complaints. On reading the report, it's clear that if the issues were not being tackled the school would have been judged 'inadequate' rather than 'requires improvement'. The Head has already gone, and other heads will roll. I'd expect the school to be back on track pretty quickly.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I think Ukraine can win this war. Russia is a few weeks from being on its knees, every day that passes without Ukraine surrendering is a day closer to a Ukrainian victory.
I doubt either side is going to win the war for months, it looks like it's all grinding to a giant stalemate to me. The battle of Aleppo took 4 years. I think we're heading into that sort of territory.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I think Ukraine can win this war. Russia is a few weeks from being on its knees, every day that passes without Ukraine surrendering is a day closer to a Ukrainian victory.
The trouble as I see it is that Russia has short term escalation dominance, because of its willingness to engage in mass shelling and dumb bombing, and ultimately potentially in battlefield nukes. Each time they lose on one level, they can ratchet up to the next level of inhumanity because there is no force of public opinion holding them back.
Long term Russia is in a vice like grip from economic sanctions and decoupling. There is no good outcome for Russia other than a negotiated settlement and the time and space to regroup and re-arm. But short term I could well see it looking to make a desert of Ukraine in order to make whatever nihilistic point it wants to make.
Japanese military experts have noticed that a large number of military personnel stationed in Japan's Northern Territory illegally occupied by the Russian Federation, are currently located in Ukraine, our sources say https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501152306825412608
Report says Bercow's conduct was "abuse of power" and criticises his response to complaints:
"The respondent has been widely unreliable and repeatedly dishonest in his evidence. He has attempted to defeat these complaints by false accusations of collusion and by advancing lies"
So, is the Polish planes to Ukraine not happening now ☹️
I just heard Ben Wallace saying he’s blocked it?
He was on R4 this morning saying that the matter was entirely up to the Poles. Which it is (along with the US and their willingness to rapidly supply replacement aircraft).
I sensed a great deal of equivocation on the matter, he didn't need to make such a bland response.
He was supportive of the idea, while acknowledging that it carried risks for Poland of a direct Russian response, and was therefore their choice, not ours (and re-emphasised our support for them as NATO allies should they go for it).
I wonder whether the hesitation is on the part of Poland, or the US.
I listened to it live and felt that he was unnecessarily giving credence to the purported risks.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I think Ukraine can win this war. Russia is a few weeks from being on its knees, every day that passes without Ukraine surrendering is a day closer to a Ukrainian victory.
I doubt either side is going to win the war for months, it looks like it's all grinding to a giant stalemate to me. The battle of Aleppo took 4 years. I think we're heading into that sort of territory.
Stalemate = Ukrainian victory.
Soldiers win battles but logistics wins wars and Russia has no logistics. They have no equipment to reinforce with, no way to build new equipment and they have no money to pay their troops. They have no iPhones or any other imports coming in at home, no taxes coming in and nobody is buying their oil.
Russia is more fucked than a Stepmom on Pornhub moonlighting as a Dockyard Hooker on Harvey Weinstein's casting couch.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 3h COLUMN: Oil, gas, coal and electricity prices are surging simultaneously. The world hasn't seen such an energy shock since the 1970s oil crisis. We need to start conserving energy immediately. Now | via @bopinion #Ukraine #OOTT #ONGT #CoalTwitter
I’m surprised no government has tried a “turn down your thermostat 1 degree” to help Ukraine/reduce CO2/save money which ever message has most traction…
My thermostat is at 16, any cooler and it's not healthy/damp problems.
There was a letter to the Guardian, years ago, which stated that they'd turned their thermostat down by one degree every time they are advised to do so, and now it was at 8C and they weren't sure how much lower they could go...
WRT to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is if it turns in to something like the arab spring. People fighting against tyranny and seeking freedom only for the west to praise them but do nothing of substance to help them. Once the initial thrill of the Ukrainian resistance subsides and people realise that it the conflict is going to go on for years, the news agenda will move on to something else and the whole thing will potentially be forgotten. The fact that the discussion has moved on so much to refugees is not a particularly good omen.
It’s only moved on to Calais refugees in PB-land and a bit of Twitter that hates Boris and Patel
The entire rest of the world is focused on the actual war
And half this morning's front pages.
I'm pretty sure Poland is remarking the number of refugees, too. Something which is very much part of the war.
But nice try.
And all over the BBC yesterday and today with interviews with some very eloquent people caught in the mess and photos of the posters put up by the British Authorities at Calais telling people 'tough'. It is the only reason I know.
Given we're not fighting or key to the diplomacy our main contribution apart from sanctions and aid is arguably on refugees. So the focus on this is perfectly appropriate imo.
We are fighting, by proxy, and Boris has been diplomatically pivotal. We are also absolutely crucial in the sanctions, freezing more Russian assets than anyone else
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I think Ukraine can win this war. Russia is a few weeks from being on its knees, every day that passes without Ukraine surrendering is a day closer to a Ukrainian victory.
The trouble as I see it is that Russia has short term escalation dominance, because of its willingness to engage in mass shelling and dumb bombing, and ultimately potentially in battlefield nukes. Each time they lose on one level, they can ratchet up to the next level of inhumanity because there is no force of public opinion holding them back.
Long term Russia is in a vice like grip from economic sanctions and decoupling. There is no good outcome for Russia other than a negotiated settlement and the time and space to regroup and re-arm. But short term I could well see it looking to make a desert of Ukraine in order to make whatever nihilistic point it wants to make.
We also have to factor in increasing internal conflict within Russia and within the ruling elite. Trouble is nobody can really predict outcomes or timing but I don't think the Russian leadership have as much time as they think they have. Supposing the Russian troops in Ukraine "do a Stalingrad" and surrender en mass?
On Ukrainian refugees, maybe it's just me, but I really couldn't care less what the public thinks, as expressed in opinion polls. It shouldn't matter if the public are in favour or opposed to taking in these refugees. It's obvious to anyone with a moral compass that we should be generous to Ukrainian refugees. As it happens, I suspect the numbers wishing to settle in the UK will be relatively small.
Sometimes governments need to do the right thing regardless of public opinion. Sometimes governments need to lead public opinion, not follow it. This is one of those occasions. That's why we elect governments.
It should be in Lille. That's on the main road routes and the Eurostar line.
There's no good reason to put it in Calais.
Sure, but that's not what the fuss was about - everyone accepts outside of Calais is sensible. Patel told the Commons that it was already there, and then corrected herself (after being challenged) that it was being set up.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I think Ukraine can win this war. Russia is a few weeks from being on its knees, every day that passes without Ukraine surrendering is a day closer to a Ukrainian victory.
I doubt either side is going to win the war for months, it looks like it's all grinding to a giant stalemate to me. The battle of Aleppo took 4 years. I think we're heading into that sort of territory.
The big difference would be the casualty rate, aiui they were minimal for the Russians in Aleppo. Could Putin get away with 1000+ dead troops a month for 4 years? Take it as read that he doesn’t give a fcuk about dead Ukrainian kids.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
Remember they have near complete control of the Russian media so what is perceived as a win in the West vs what is a win for Ukraine vs what is perceived as a win in Russia can all be very different.
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
Giving territory as a reward for aggression and war crimes is a terrible idea and a devastating attack on the international rule of law. It also sets Ukraine up for another attack in 10-20 years time with the same pincer movement from stolen Crimea, only when Russia has fixed its supply chains.
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide that, not us. Whilst I don't think Russia can win the war, neither can Ukraine. Perhaps they are willing to wait years for the end of Putin before negotiating, but perhaps they will prefer an imperfect and unfair deal to end the war earlier.
I think Ukraine can win this war. Russia is a few weeks from being on its knees, every day that passes without Ukraine surrendering is a day closer to a Ukrainian victory.
I doubt either side is going to win the war for months, it looks like it's all grinding to a giant stalemate to me. The battle of Aleppo took 4 years. I think we're heading into that sort of territory.
Stalemate = Ukrainian victory.
Soldiers win battles but logistics wins wars and Russia has no logistics. They have no equipment to reinforce with, no way to build new equipment and they have no money to pay their troops. They have no iPhones or any other imports coming in at home, no taxes coming in and nobody is buying their oil.
Russia is more fucked than a Stepmom on Pornhub moonlighting as a Dockyard Hooker on Harvey Weinstein's casting couch.
At the point Russia starts accepting genuine concessions they will be in precipitous free fall and have evaporating leverage by the week. At that point it makes sense to hold out for what would genuinely uphold Ukrainian security long term.
On Ukrainian refugees, maybe it's just me, but I really couldn't care less what the public thinks, as expressed in opinion polls. It shouldn't matter if the public are in favour or opposed to taking in these refugees. It's obvious to anyone with a moral compass that we should be generous to Ukrainian refugees. As it happens, I suspect the numbers wishing to settle in the UK will be relatively small.
Sometimes governments need to do the right thing regardless of public opinion. Sometimes governments need to lead public opinion, not follow it. This is one of those occasions. That's why we elect governments.
The poor saps who thought that’s why they elected BJ & co deserve a very rude awakening indeed.
So, is the Polish planes to Ukraine not happening now ☹️
I just heard Ben Wallace saying he’s blocked it?
He was on R4 this morning saying that the matter was entirely up to the Poles. Which it is (along with the US and their willingness to rapidly supply replacement aircraft).
The last thing I saw on this is that the US is trying to setup a 3 way deal - the Poles give the Ukrainians the Mig 29s, and other allies contribute/lend spare fighters until the planed replacements for the Polish Migs arrive.
All of which could be sorted out pretty quickly if the will was there to provide the Ukrainians with the capacity to maintain an effective air force in the face of losses. The fact that this is being so drawn out suggests that the unwillingness of NATO to get involved in the air extends to indirect support and well beyond opposition to a no fly zone.
Well, you have the fact that
- The only vaguely suitable aircraft are Mig29s - The Polish ones have been upgraded with Western electronics - So training issues, security issues - There is also an escalation issue if shot down - The Poles won't want a gap in their airforce - The aircraft that the Poles can use now are either Mig29s or F16 C/D models - They have F35 on order, but they may not have any pilots trained to use them - So to replace the Polish MIgs would require, probably, F16s of the right model. C/D is quite ancient.
Is one reason the West don't want a no-fly zone that they don't want the Russians looking at our latest kit (In the event of crashes etc)?
More important is that a no-fly zone involve the West shooting down Russian aircraft and destroying Russia SAMs system - in Russia.
A no fly-zone is direct, real war with Russia. You might as well declare war and do it properly.
Hence why everyone went WTF when Hilary Clinton pushed for one in Syria....
I've been rather humiliatingly rebuffed in my attempt to help out physically in Ukraine. I was advised to have a medical exam and this morning my doctor warned me that I'd likely die from exposure to the current weather in Ukraine on my first night without decent shelter. I interrupted the list of reasons for my unfitness for being anywhere near combat, probably well before its end.
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
Japanese military experts have noticed that a large number of military personnel stationed in Japan's Northern Territory illegally occupied by the Russian Federation, are currently located in Ukraine, our sources say https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501152306825412608
Christophe Barraud🛢@C_Barraud·47s🇷🇺 *SHELL ANNOUNCES INTENT TO WITHDRAW FROM RUSSIAN #OIL AND #GAS - BBG *SHELL WILL STOP ALL SPOT PURCHASES OF RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL
I'm sure our more with it police forces and local authorities will be flying the appropriate flags, painting road crossings & sending out self-congratulatory tweets etc.
The only thing to read today is Anthony Lloyd's report on the front page of the Times. You need a strong stomach mind.
Being married to an International Woman I made her breakfast this morning. It was the least I could do.
Being married to a Scot I did the same and gave it to her in bed
I was quite inspired by your 78 year old exploits, until I realised you meant breakfast... (I assume!)
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
There's that too, but at some point terms will have to be discussed. For now we're not at that point.
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
The biggest ally in stopping the war may actually be China.
For a start - and this is why the Russians won't go nuke even if they wanted to in a limited sense - what the Chinese certainly do not want is a nuke dropped because, overnight, Japan / S Korea / Taiwan would automatically switch to a policy of having nuclear weapons.
Secondly, China is the world's biggest importer of oil plus a whole range of commodities which are seeing massive hikes (as well as the cost of shipping etc). There is a question of how much this will impact the Chinese GDP growth plans but the chances are quite significantly.
Thirdly, the war is heightening the world's response to military action, which obviously impacts any plans China may have with Taiwan.
Would be interesting to know the pressure on Moscow from China.
It's easy to believe China has both great concerns and an opportunity here.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
Minor problem.
The Russian forces can't move, forwards or backwards
They could be given a tow if they lay down their weapons.
Japanese military experts have noticed that a large number of military personnel stationed in Japan's Northern Territory illegally occupied by the Russian Federation, are currently located in Ukraine, our sources say https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501152306825412608
This is what I said ages ago - it is precisely because the Russians have put their money into the UK's jurisdiction and USA's jurisdiction that UK and US sanctions are hurting Russia so much now.
The EU's figure is unsurprisingly low not because the EU is not willing to do sanctions, but because they're not a global financial superpower like the UK is that they're incapable of doing sanctions.
The UK being a global centre for finance gives us diamond-hard "soft power" to utilise in a conflict like this by sanctioning the finance that is here. It is why it is such a good idea to have the finance here in the first place.
If the finance had never been in our jurisdiction, we'd never be able to sanction it. 🤦♂️
I cannot see how Russia will 'win' this war. They may take Kiev, they may take all of Ukraine. But they have lost, and will lose, a massive amount of men and material in the process. Their international reputation will be nearly as low as their economy.
Even in victory, they will lose.
The question then becomes how low they will drag the rest of the world in their descent.
They might take Kiev, with great difficulty. They will not take all of Ukraine; they haven't the manpower. Their international reputation has been trashed. This has been a ruinous misadventure for Russia. It is hard to think of a more extreme example of a country ruining itself. The damage will last decades, if not centuries.
The closest the Russians can get to winning now would by plunging into a nuclear war and taking us all into the darkness with them.
I do not think it is likely, but it certainly possible. The West has played the crisis well so far. Fingers crossed it continues to do so.
What's the potential negotiation here.
i. Membership of supranational organisations ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions. iii. Crimea.
Here I differ with NickP (not something I like to do) and side with Cyclefree and the like.
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
It's a very good question.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
The other sticking point is the impossibility of granting any of Russia's demands without rewarding naked aggression.
Not just rewarding but setting the stage for the next round. Russia's commitment to Ukrainian territorial integrity is worth nothing, as the Budapest Memorandum shows. You need to eliminate their means to do it. Russian Crimea is a dagger pointed at the heart of a Ukrainian state. At most, it can be neutral.
Japanese military experts have noticed that a large number of military personnel stationed in Japan's Northern Territory illegally occupied by the Russian Federation, are currently located in Ukraine, our sources say https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501152306825412608
On Ukrainian refugees, maybe it's just me, but I really couldn't care less what the public thinks, as expressed in opinion polls. It shouldn't matter if the public are in favour or opposed to taking in these refugees. It's obvious to anyone with a moral compass that we should be generous to Ukrainian refugees. As it happens, I suspect the numbers wishing to settle in the UK will be relatively small.
Sometimes governments need to do the right thing regardless of public opinion. Sometimes governments need to lead public opinion, not follow it. This is one of those occasions. That's why we elect governments.
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
Minor problem.
The Russian forces can't move, forwards or backwards
They can use Tolstoy's War & Peace as an instruction manual.
Edit: Sorry, that should be Special Military Operations and Peace. Not used to the new code yet.
Comments
What on earth do you get for it.
i. Membership of supranational organisations
ii. Status of LHR and DPR regions.
iii. Crimea.
Yet today you are positively RUDE
I don’t suppose this has anything to do with the SNP admitting there won’t be any indyref soon, thus effectively putting off the next one until the mid 2030s?
"Fuck you, Russian worship...."
How do you negotiate with an authority that lies persistently and breaks its treaties?
Russia getting Crimea and referenda in Donbass & Luhansk should be sellable as a win for Russia, better than ongoing defensive war for Ukraine and limited enough for the worst of the Western sanctions to be removed.
Nothing else, apart from nuclear war or Putin removed internally by the Russian establishment, seems like a stable end point.
I would be happy to replace it with marriage visas needing to meet the same criteria as unmarried partners, in terms of having to be a genuine relationship for two years, plus restoration of the Primary Purpose rule.
Gosh, I’m agreeing with everyone. I surely need a coffee
When challenged to surrender or be bombed they simply respond:
"Russian Warship. Go Fuck Yourself."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxCzKhKewnM
It's the silly people that Leon is spending too much time looking at* that are wanting to deal with the latter right this second and make that the number one story.
* why anyone would ever consider Twitter important is beyond me.
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
·
3h
COLUMN: Oil, gas, coal and electricity prices are surging simultaneously. The world hasn't seen such an energy shock since the 1970s oil crisis. We need to start conserving energy immediately. Now | via
@bopinion
#Ukraine #OOTT #ONGT #CoalTwitter
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1501114988794155012
- The only vaguely suitable aircraft are Mig29s
- The Polish ones have been upgraded with Western electronics
- So training issues, security issues
- There is also an escalation issue if shot down
- The Poles won't want a gap in their airforce
- The aircraft that the Poles can use now are either Mig29s or F16 C/D models
- They have F35 on order, but they may not have any pilots trained to use them
- So to replace the Polish MIgs would require, probably, F16s of the right model. C/D is quite ancient.
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1501161421471633409
In addition Donetsk and Luhansk would have voted to stay part of Ukraine until the refugees were pushed out since the war. It was ethnic Ukrainian until 2014, especially Luhansk, which is why the supposed People’s Republics couldn't even take the whole provinces.
The biggest concession Ukraine could make is an independent, neutral Crimea; and an autonomy referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk after refugees have returned. But they would need a NATO defense guarantee to make it acceptable.
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
https://lenta.com/o-kompanii/news/-------54/
I wonder whether the hesitation is on the part of Poland, or the US.
(Assuming that "Russian warship. Go fuck yourself" will be vetoed.)
A better place would be Poland.
Do you struggle to find accommodation, given that the UK has spent 20 years clamping down on empty homes, and long-term empties are now at around 300k only?
Where would you put your share of the proposed 200k, if that many come?
Wishing you ATB with the project.
🇷🇺Russia: starts an offensive on Mariupol via the humanitarian corridor.
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1501157248218939396
The sticking point for now is the presence of Russian forces in Ukraine. Until they are withdrawn, there is very little to talk about, since any ceasefire is likely be be broken should it suit Putin. And so any negotiations would be under the immediate threat of resumed conflict.
Until that issue is dealt with, the rest is pretty well moot.
There's no good reason to put it in Calais.
They just didn't expect the British government to be so inhumane as to force them to spend days or weeks waiting for a visa to be issued, when no-one else in Europe is being so obstructive.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1501152306825412608
The Russian forces can't move, forwards or backwards
Temporary stabilisation via a coup and ending of hostilities? Internal upheaval, a second (or third) revolution, civil war? Optimistically a sort of velvet revolution to try democracy rebooted?
For a start - and this is why the Russians won't go nuke even if they wanted to in a limited sense - what the Chinese certainly do not want is a nuke dropped because, overnight, Japan / S Korea / Taiwan would automatically switch to a policy of having nuclear weapons.
Secondly, China is the world's biggest importer of oil plus a whole range of commodities which are seeing massive hikes (as well as the cost of shipping etc). There is a question of how much this will impact the Chinese GDP growth plans but the chances are quite significantly.
Thirdly, the war is heightening the world's response to military action, which obviously impacts any plans China may have with Taiwan.
Would be interesting to know the pressure on Moscow from China.
We do not yet have an independent fillum of that.
This was March 2nd:
The number of dead Russian soldiers is now so unfathomably large that they are being buried in mass graves in order to avert contamination», — says the Secretary of the Head of the MIA, Anton Herashenko.
https://twitter.com/PatrykChodurski/status/1499130511683469312
(Warning: bodies on link)
I hope that DNA samples are being kept where possible to pass to the Red Cross - judging by how well organised the Ukr govt is, that should be happening.
The battle of Aleppo took 4 years. I think we're heading into that sort of territory.
Long term Russia is in a vice like grip from economic sanctions and decoupling. There is no good outcome for Russia other than a negotiated settlement and the time and space to regroup and re-arm. But short term I could well see it looking to make a desert of Ukraine in order to make whatever nihilistic point it wants to make.
Maybe that's who is going to be calling more of the shots in Russia down the line.
NEW: The brutal 89pg report on the conduct on former Commons speaker John Bercow is out.
Bercow is described as a "serial bully" and "serial liar" who "repeatedly and extensively" breached ethics rules.
He'll be blocked from holding a parliamentary pass
https://parliament.uk/globalassets/mps-lords--offices/standards-and-financial-interests/independent-expert-panel/hc-1189---the-conduct-of-mr-john-bercow.pdf
Report says Bercow's conduct was "abuse of power" and criticises his response to complaints:
"The respondent has been widely unreliable and repeatedly dishonest in
his evidence. He has attempted to defeat these complaints by false
accusations of collusion and by advancing lies"
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1501152905239404545
https://news.sky.com/story/john-bercow-former-speaker-banned-from-parliament-for-life-after-bullying-inquiry-finds-him-guilty-12560483
Soldiers win battles but logistics wins wars and Russia has no logistics. They have no equipment to reinforce with, no way to build new equipment and they have no money to pay their troops. They have no iPhones or any other imports coming in at home, no taxes coming in and nobody is buying their oil.
Russia is more fucked than a Stepmom on Pornhub moonlighting as a Dockyard Hooker on Harvey Weinstein's casting couch.
We are fighting, by proxy, and Boris has been diplomatically pivotal. We are also absolutely crucial in the sanctions, freezing more Russian assets than anyone else
Otherwise, good point
Sometimes governments need to do the right thing regardless of public opinion. Sometimes governments need to lead public opinion, not follow it. This is one of those occasions. That's why we elect governments.
Patel told the Commons that it was already there, and then corrected herself (after being challenged) that it was being set up.
We now discover it's still being discussed.
@visegrad24·14m
So many Canadians volunteer fighters have arrived in Ukraine that they have been able to form their own unit. 🇨🇦🇺🇦
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1501162743147159555
A no fly-zone is direct, real war with Russia. You might as well declare war and do it properly.
Hence why everyone went WTF when Hilary Clinton pushed for one in Syria....
This has left me on another list of people that may be requested to help in support roles if the presence of foreign volunteer fighters on the Polish side of the border grows enough to require it. And only if it goes on long enough for the weather to be warm enough that I might at least survive that. Realistically I don't think I'm going to get a call, but I haven't entirely ruled it out and will help if I can.
I've partly overcome my immediate shame by giving some of my redundancy payment to Ukraine (straight into the country's bank account through details from here https://uahelp.monobank.ua/ - hope this doesn't prove to be a Russian scam and so even more embarrassing than my physical debility..) and persuaded my rather wealthier father to give a more generous donation. He said he'd have to revisit his will to reflect my generosity. I think he was joking, but it's probably moot - following my medical I'm feeling less optimistic about outliving him than ever!
Слава України
Insiders believe this suggests still problems at the centre of government - is the Steve Barclay chief of staff operation properly up & running at the heart of No10?
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1501167072386195461
https://twitter.com/edballs/status/1500586467613155338
https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1500125956140371969
https://www.ft.com/content/4adac2e1-0288-4eb0-a593-479c1815c864 UK Defence Journal have a teeshirt of that which has raised >10k.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/charity-t-shirt-in-aid-of-ukraine/
For now we're not at that point.
We accept unlimited Ukrainian migration in return for Zelensky also becoming PM of the UK.
Keir Starmer: 33% (-1 from 24-25 Feb)
Boris Johnson: 26% (n/c)
Don't know: 37%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/08/voting-intention-con-35-lab-37-3-4-mar?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1501168243909836803/photo/1
Edit - ah sorry, right, read the link. Well maybe they are directly linked? Retake the islands with supernatural forces?
This is what I said ages ago - it is precisely because the Russians have put their money into the UK's jurisdiction and USA's jurisdiction that UK and US sanctions are hurting Russia so much now.
The EU's figure is unsurprisingly low not because the EU is not willing to do sanctions, but because they're not a global financial superpower like the UK is that they're incapable of doing sanctions.
The UK being a global centre for finance gives us diamond-hard "soft power" to utilise in a conflict like this by sanctioning the finance that is here. It is why it is such a good idea to have the finance here in the first place.
If the finance had never been in our jurisdiction, we'd never be able to sanction it. 🤦♂️
Edit: Sorry, that should be Special Military Operations and Peace. Not used to the new code yet.