Lavrov is on now saying the aim isn’t to just “demilitarise or denazify” Ukraine. Presuming that means the aim is to occupy the whole country. Ranting about Liz Truss, the French, America owning Europe..
..how that works out for Russia will be fascinating.
I've got some confidence in Zelenskiy. He could have said "retribution", here, which is already feeling like the strong temptation in some western societies.
Lavrov is on now saying the aim isn’t to just “demilitarise or denazify” Ukraine. Presuming that means the aim is to occupy the whole country. Ranting about Liz Truss, the French, America owning Europe..
..how that works out for Russia will be fascinating.
Uh-oh. So reality hasn't broken through yet, after all.
Karim Khan said that although Ukraine was not a member of the ICC, it had awarded jurisdiction to the court. He said that there was grounds to open an investigation based on a previous preliminary investigation on Crimea and the Donbas published last year, and on current events in Ukraine.
“I have already tasked my team to explore all evidence preservation opportunities,” Khan, a British lawyer, said.
He said that he could go to ICC judges to approve the inquiry, but it would be faster if an ICC member state referred the case to his office, “which would allow us to actively and immediately proceed with the office’s independent and objective investigations”...
Since which 34 (I think) member states have made referrals. A post conflict Russia might even extradite the fucker.
I fear Zelensky's success means he may end up as a modern day Viriathus, doomed to be assassinated for the crime of competent defiance.
On-topic: Starmer down to 6.2 on Betfair to be next PM. May still be value but I think I'll sit on the 12 or suchlike I backed him at earlier.
Yep, I actually sold a bit yesterday, enough to make me green on next PM whatever happens. I was traded out of the market at the start of the year, but got some at high 7s, 9.something and, like you, 12.
Can someone explain what action has been taken by the UK Government against a single Russian oligarch. Not a commitment to action, or an intention to act. What has actually been done. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1499305683728187392
Out of interest is there a link to all the assets seized so far in Europe from Oligarchs. Apart from Usmanov’s super yacht I would be delighted for a list of the Côte d’Azure mansions seized by the French, the mega-yachts moored in Puerto Banus, Monaco, the villas in Ibiza and Mallorca, the grand apartments in Paris, the private jets parked up around Europe’s playgrounds and shopping capitals and the ski chalets in the most exclusive resorts.
I’m sure Chris Bryant has a list of this but I can’t find anything so far.
In the interests of transparency on poetrybetting.com, I'm in the JossiasJessop camp - poetry generally doesn't move me, just words awkwardly arranged. I dont dislike but I dont get it like most.
I hate jazz though.
I can understand disliking it, even though I like it myself, but hate ?
Lavrov is on now saying the aim isn’t to just “demilitarise or denazify” Ukraine. Presuming that means the aim is to occupy the whole country. Ranting about Liz Truss, the French, America owning Europe..
..how that works out for Russia will be fascinating.
Uh-oh. So reality hasn't broken through yet, after all.
As Lavrov is just Putins messenger, it’s a fascinating insight into Putins mind. Clear he sees conflict as wider than just Ukraine.
Also clear that Putins generals aren’t telling him the whole truth about Russian military capability
Lavrov is on now saying the aim isn’t to just “demilitarise or denazify” Ukraine. Presuming that means the aim is to occupy the whole country. Ranting about Liz Truss, the French, America owning Europe..
..how that works out for Russia will be fascinating.
Uh-oh. So reality hasn't broken through yet, after all.
As Lavrov is just Putins messenger, it’s a fascinating insight into Putins mind. Clear he sees conflict as wider than just Ukraine.
Also clear that Putins generals aren’t telling him the whole truth about Russian military capability
Lavrov is on now saying the aim isn’t to just “demilitarise or denazify” Ukraine. Presuming that means the aim is to occupy the whole country. Ranting about Liz Truss, the French, America owning Europe..
..how that works out for Russia will be fascinating.
Uh-oh. So reality hasn't broken through yet, after all.
As Lavrov is just Putins messenger, it’s a fascinating insight into Putins mind. Clear he sees conflict as wider than just Ukraine.
Also clear that Putins generals aren’t telling him the whole truth about Russian military capability
It does mean he's complicit in the war crimes. The idea of his succeeding Putin is, I think, fanciful.
In the interests of transparency on poetrybetting.com, I'm in the JossiasJessop camp - poetry generally doesn't move me, just words awkwardly arranged. I dont dislike but I dont get it like most.
I hate jazz though.
Poetry is wonderful. The one form of writing that you can read over and over again. Just like the way some music bears, indeed benefits from, repeated listens. Just find the poets that work for you.
I have to confess that I struggled with jazz. Have some sympathy there. Then discovered jazz fusion (later Miles Davis etc)...and jazz inflected rock such as elements of King Crimson. There are riches there.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various reasonably strong signals which there have been. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Karim Khan said that although Ukraine was not a member of the ICC, it had awarded jurisdiction to the court. He said that there was grounds to open an investigation based on a previous preliminary investigation on Crimea and the Donbas published last year, and on current events in Ukraine.
“I have already tasked my team to explore all evidence preservation opportunities,” Khan, a British lawyer, said.
He said that he could go to ICC judges to approve the inquiry, but it would be faster if an ICC member state referred the case to his office, “which would allow us to actively and immediately proceed with the office’s independent and objective investigations”...
Since which 34 (I think) member states have made referrals. A post conflict Russia might even extradite the fucker.
How far did war crimes claims against Bush and Blair get?
It is fine putting war crimes up against an African or Middle Eastern or Serbian despot, it is another against the leader of a P5 UN Security Council permanent member and major power unless they are toppled and replaced by a regime hostile to its predecessor
As predicted, the EU “giving jets to Ukraine” was total bollocks
“a bolder plan to send Russian-made MiG-29 and Su-25 jets, of the kind familiar to Ukraine’s pilots, from Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria collapsed this week. It is not clear how realistic the proposal was, but if the plan was to revive it, it could provide help to Kyiv’s beleaguered air force.”
If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.
Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?
Lucky?
In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.
I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
A tanker driver strike against a once in a 100 year pandemic and the first major war in europe for 77 years.
The Bosnian and Kosovo wars with Serbia were major wars in Europe, just civil wars, not an invasion of another country like Russia has invaded Ukraine
Lavrov is on now saying the aim isn’t to just “demilitarise or denazify” Ukraine. Presuming that means the aim is to occupy the whole country. Ranting about Liz Truss, the French, America owning Europe..
..how that works out for Russia will be fascinating.
Uh-oh. So reality hasn't broken through yet, after all.
As Lavrov is just Putins messenger, it’s a fascinating insight into Putins mind. Clear he sees conflict as wider than just Ukraine.
Also clear that Putins generals aren’t telling him the whole truth about Russian military capability
As with Saddam
Memo to despots: inspecting your troops is not purely ceremonial. Do it, and make sure you are not being Potemkined.
If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.
Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?
Lucky?
In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.
I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
As if the death of a royal caused by drunk-driving, as dramatic as that might have been for some, is remotely comparable to say COVID.
The fact that's what you're leading with shows just how calm most Blair's time was. Though if I was to say the exception I would have gone with 9/11 rather than a car crash.
There was also of course the Good Friday Agreement, though most of the work towards that was done under Thatcher and Major he got to finish it off.
9/11 was over 4 years into Blair's premiership, the original statement was in his first 3 years Blair had nothing to deal with ie the equivalent stage of Boris' premiership now.
I wonder if the Republic of Ireland's policy of strict neutrality and refusal to countenance membership of NATO could have some bearing on the talk about a border poll and unification.
Yes, Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU. But are people there content to be removed from NATO?
The Ukrainian military has been using “Punisher” stealth drones that can target fuel storage, ammunition supplies and electronic warfare stations up to 30 miles behind enemy lines. They've carried out up to 60 "successful" missions since the invasion began
If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.
Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?
Lucky?
In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.
I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
That makes the point rather eloquently.
Had it not been for Brexit, Covid and the War, then the two recent Royal crises (Andrew, Harry) would be much more prominent events in the last three years, but they're so incredibly minor in comparison.
Similarly, we also had a fuel crisis! I doubt it will even figure as a footnote in twenty years time, while the fuel crisis of 2000 has such prominence because there wasn't much else going on.
Karim Khan said that although Ukraine was not a member of the ICC, it had awarded jurisdiction to the court. He said that there was grounds to open an investigation based on a previous preliminary investigation on Crimea and the Donbas published last year, and on current events in Ukraine.
“I have already tasked my team to explore all evidence preservation opportunities,” Khan, a British lawyer, said.
He said that he could go to ICC judges to approve the inquiry, but it would be faster if an ICC member state referred the case to his office, “which would allow us to actively and immediately proceed with the office’s independent and objective investigations”...
Since which 34 (I think) member states have made referrals. A post conflict Russia might even extradite the fucker.
How far did war crimes claims against Bush and Blair get?
It is fine putting war crimes up against an African or Middle Eastern or Serbian despot, it is another against the leader of a P5 UN Security Council permanent member and major power unless they are toppled and replaced by a regime hostile to its predecessor
I wonder if the Republic of Ireland's policy of strict neutrality and refusal to countenance membership of NATO could have some bearing on the talk about a border poll and unification.
Yes, Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU. But are people there content to be removed from NATO?
Just a thought. Not seen it mentioned anywhere.
Indeed, the UK would only use Trident to defend UK cities or at most NATO cities, nobody else.
The Republic of Ireland is less at risk from Putin than other non NATO members nearer Russia like Georgia or Finland but nonetheless being outside of NATO's umbrella is a risk
Fair to say that we're now in something of a race between Russian forces encircling Kyiv, Western arms getting to Ukrainians & Western sanctions obliterating the Russian economy?
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
In the interests of transparency on poetrybetting.com, I'm in the JossiasJessop camp - poetry generally doesn't move me, just words awkwardly arranged. I dont dislike but I dont get it like most.
I hate jazz though.
Poetry is wonderful. The one form of writing that you can read over and over again. Just like the way some music bears, indeed benefits from, repeated listens. Just find the poets that work for you.
I have to confess that I struggled with jazz. Have some sympathy there. Then discovered jazz fusion (later Miles Davis etc)...and jazz inflected rock such as elements of King Crimson. There are riches there.
I should declare an interest here as my mother is a poet. Personally I prefer novels to poetry but I think that's mostly an issue of immediacy and accessibility. When I studied poetry in English at school and devoted a lot of time and energy to it I really loved it but without that time and effort it's difficult to get into it. Writing good poetry is an incredible skill and it's interesting to me how some quite obnoxious and misanthropic people were able to write so beautifully and movingly about the human condition (Larkin the obvious example). My favourite poets are probably Burns and Larkin as well as my dear ma obvs.
! Ukrainian armed forces announced that they have killed maj. gen. Andrey Sukhovetskiy, a Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk. This appears confirmed by a spokesperson of the Russian Paratroopers Union. If confirmed, major demotivator for RU.
Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.
The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
Yes, one thing that has seemed more hopeful from this crisis is the rooting out of of a lot of officially-appointed Kremlin trolls from various parts of social media. That surely must make it a bit harder.
I've also wondered something else, recently - there may have been Kremlin trolls on the most extreme fringes of the ID politics left, too.
Plenty of them on all sides. What they were interested in is polarisation and demonisation of opponents. We in the west need to work hard to bring civility back to political debate.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
A throwaway comment on the radio yesterday said Putin's approval had risen 12% because of this. Don't know how trustworthy that is, but it doesn't augur well for any swift overthrow hopes.
Karim Khan said that although Ukraine was not a member of the ICC, it had awarded jurisdiction to the court. He said that there was grounds to open an investigation based on a previous preliminary investigation on Crimea and the Donbas published last year, and on current events in Ukraine.
“I have already tasked my team to explore all evidence preservation opportunities,” Khan, a British lawyer, said.
He said that he could go to ICC judges to approve the inquiry, but it would be faster if an ICC member state referred the case to his office, “which would allow us to actively and immediately proceed with the office’s independent and objective investigations”...
Since which 34 (I think) member states have made referrals. A post conflict Russia might even extradite the fucker.
How far did war crimes claims against Bush and Blair get?
It is fine putting war crimes up against an African or Middle Eastern or Serbian despot, it is another against the leader of a P5 UN Security Council permanent member and major power unless they are toppled and replaced by a regime hostile to its predecessor
! Ukrainian armed forces announced that they have killed maj. gen. Andrey Sukhovetskiy, a Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk. This appears confirmed by a spokesperson of the Russian Paratroopers Union. If confirmed, major demotivator for RU.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
Indeed. And unfortunately that's a problem in both scenarios, because loose nukes was why we gave carte blanche to Putin in the first place. The Americans may have dropped two bombs and first developed the weapon, but the development of Soviet bombs in 1949 seems to have given us the most lasting global danger we've ever faced.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
As a best case scenario there's no way that Russia is going to be able to install and maintain a Moscow-friendly puppet regime. The Ukrainians won't have it, and the Russians aren't powerful enough to enforce it.
Best case scenario: The logistics problems become endemic crippling the Russian military, the Russian military loses its morale and fragments, NATO is able to keep Ukraine supplied with munitions, Russia ends up humiliated in retreat and Putin's regime collapses.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario...
Is it ?
None of that is yet written. Except by you, of course.
In the interests of transparency on poetrybetting.com, I'm in the JossiasJessop camp - poetry generally doesn't move me, just words awkwardly arranged. I dont dislike but I dont get it like most.
I hate jazz though.
Poetry is wonderful. The one form of writing that you can read over and over again. Just like the way some music bears, indeed benefits from, repeated listens. Just find the poets that work for you.
I have to confess that I struggled with jazz. Have some sympathy there. Then discovered jazz fusion (later Miles Davis etc)...and jazz inflected rock such as elements of King Crimson. There are riches there.
Is there a name for the difference between that very personal sense of enjoyment of a piece of art, that visceral this-speaks-to-me, and the purely technical appreciation - brilliant artist, great composition, but-not-for me? Also goes for art forms as well as artists....
In the interests of transparency on poetrybetting.com, I'm in the JossiasJessop camp - poetry generally doesn't move me, just words awkwardly arranged. I dont dislike but I dont get it like most.
I hate jazz though.
To me poetry is music through words. There is a rhythm and musicality in good poetry which enchants. And so it has to be spoken not simply read silently to hear that.
But the earliest poetry is the nursery rhymes that children learn or have spoken to them - the best way to get them to develop a good ear for the wonders of the English language: its rhythm, its structure, its musicality, its wonderful muscular expressiveness.
I do like some jazz. I had to learn a jazz piano piece for a music exam. God it was hard to learn. But in the end it turned out to be the piece for which I got the highest marks.
I have to confess that I struggled with jazz. Have some sympathy there. Then discovered jazz fusion (later Miles Davis etc)...and jazz inflected rock such as elements of King Crimson. There are riches there.
When I was in the 6th form, a friend came into school one day with an album that had just been released called "In the court of the Crimson King". He lent it to me saying how amazing it was. The next day I gave it him back and told him I thought it was rubbish. He asked me how many times I had listened to it, and I said, "Once was enough!"
He gave it me back and told me to listen to it at least twice more. The first time I listened to it that evening, I still didn't get it. But I did what he said and played it again, and this time I thought there was something in it. So I played it a third time and decided it was brilliant. I still think so - one of the greatest albums of all time. But I've always been grateful to Brian for persuading me to persist with it.
When my dad, who wasn't into rock but was a big jazz fan, heard me playing it, he got into it too.
Sad that Ian McDonald died recently. Robert Fripp's lockdown videos with his wife were fun though.
! Ukrainian armed forces announced that they have killed maj. gen. Andrey Sukhovetskiy, a Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk. This appears confirmed by a spokesperson of the Russian Paratroopers Union. If confirmed, major demotivator for RU.
Karim Khan said that although Ukraine was not a member of the ICC, it had awarded jurisdiction to the court. He said that there was grounds to open an investigation based on a previous preliminary investigation on Crimea and the Donbas published last year, and on current events in Ukraine.
“I have already tasked my team to explore all evidence preservation opportunities,” Khan, a British lawyer, said.
He said that he could go to ICC judges to approve the inquiry, but it would be faster if an ICC member state referred the case to his office, “which would allow us to actively and immediately proceed with the office’s independent and objective investigations”...
Since which 34 (I think) member states have made referrals. A post conflict Russia might even extradite the fucker.
How far did war crimes claims against Bush and Blair get?
It is fine putting war crimes up against an African or Middle Eastern or Serbian despot, it is another against the leader of a P5 UN Security Council permanent member and major power unless they are toppled and replaced by a regime hostile to its predecessor
I refer you to the last line of my post.
wishful thinking
No, it's a serious possibility. It's not massively likely, but it will hang over him for the rest of his life - very much unlike Bush or Blair.
Fair to say that we're now in something of a race between Russian forces encircling Kyiv, Western arms getting to Ukrainians & Western sanctions obliterating the Russian economy?
My bet would be that the Russian's have decided to have a main thrust elsewhere, and have left that column in place to distract, or for a backup. They don't want to pull it all back, but they don't want the main thrust from there. Until it retreats or is destroyed, it's still a threat.
But as some will daresay point out, I'm not a military man (tm).
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
Unhappily, this is all too believable.
In the absence of a Palace coup, the best outcome is a ceasefire as soon as possible, leaving a de facto boundary in place.
Unfortunately, neither side will probably accept this, as not enough people have died yet.
Much as I defer to the military strategists on here I think it is premature to determine that for one reason (logisitcs, morale, equipment readiness, whatever) or another, as evidenced by six pictures on twitter and one bbc picture of a tank with a thrown track, that the Russian invasion is failing.
This is not playing out in 24-hr news/twitter time. Best to wait a while to take stock before raising the winner's hand.
It's not that the Russian invasion is failing - they will probably still 'win', tactically - but Ukraine has not only exceeded our expectations but put a serious dent in Russia's ability to move on to the next domino; and meanwhile has allowed the west time to regroup. Who knows, in Russia's timeline, they may already have expected to have moved on to Moldova or Estonia. Ukraine is still resisting, a week into the invasion by one of the world's biggest militaries. Russia didn't expect that, and neither did I.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
A throwaway comment on the radio yesterday said Putin's approval had risen 12% because of this. Don't know how trustworthy that is, but it doesn't augur well for any swift overthrow hopes.
Yes, all the reports I’m reading say that Russian state propaganda INSIDE Russia is working very well. They all believe this is a defensive move against nasty Ukrainian fascists. And of course people rally to the flag in any war, even one as rubbish and wicked as this (even Iraq had majority support in the UK at one point)
I am a bit blue today. After a horrible plague, a horrible war? It feels like this is a new pattern in human affairs. After decades of things generally getting better, now they are generally getting worse, and this will continue for some time
I wonder if the Republic of Ireland's policy of strict neutrality and refusal to countenance membership of NATO could have some bearing on the talk about a border poll and unification.
Yes, Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU. But are people there content to be removed from NATO?
Just a thought. Not seen it mentioned anywhere.
Ireland's policy is not one of strict neutrality. It's never been like Switzerland was. And now they're calling it "neutral, but not neutral".
If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.
Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?
Lucky?
In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.
I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
A tanker driver strike against a once in a 100 year pandemic and the first major war in europe for 77 years.
The Bosnian and Kosovo wars with Serbia were major wars in Europe, just civil wars, not an invasion of another country like Russia has invaded Ukraine
Kosovo was probably an invasion (it was part of sovereign territory).... but I am lawyer
I am struck by how the interconnected nature of the World economies has allowed such rapid impact on Russia. If the same had been true in the 1930's, might we have avoided the excesses of Hitler and Stalin?
If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.
Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?
Lucky?
In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.
I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
A tanker driver strike against a once in a 100 year pandemic and the first major war in europe for 77 years.
The Bosnian and Kosovo wars with Serbia were major wars in Europe, just civil wars, not an invasion of another country like Russia has invaded Ukraine
Kosovo was probably an invasion (it was part of sovereign territory).... but I am lawyer
As predicted, the EU “giving jets to Ukraine” was total bollocks
“a bolder plan to send Russian-made MiG-29 and Su-25 jets, of the kind familiar to Ukraine’s pilots, from Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria collapsed this week. It is not clear how realistic the proposal was, but if the plan was to revive it, it could provide help to Kyiv’s beleaguered air force.”
Guardian
This was an example of how a superficially good idea turned out not to be entirely helpful. It serves Putin's claim that it is NATO who are attacking Russia by proxy.
Ukraine are being supplied with a full range of military equipment and hardware. But it isn't a good idea to promote this.
In the interests of transparency on poetrybetting.com, I'm in the JossiasJessop camp - poetry generally doesn't move me, just words awkwardly arranged. I dont dislike but I dont get it like most.
I hate jazz though.
Poetry is wonderful. The one form of writing that you can read over and over again. Just like the way some music bears, indeed benefits from, repeated listens. Just find the poets that work for you.
I have to confess that I struggled with jazz. Have some sympathy there. Then discovered jazz fusion (later Miles Davis etc)...and jazz inflected rock such as elements of King Crimson. There are riches there.
I should declare an interest here as my mother is a poet. Personally I prefer novels to poetry but I think that's mostly an issue of immediacy and accessibility. When I studied poetry in English at school and devoted a lot of time and energy to it I really loved it but without that time and effort it's difficult to get into it. Writing good poetry is an incredible skill and it's interesting to me how some quite obnoxious and misanthropic people were able to write so beautifully and movingly about the human condition (Larkin the obvious example). My favourite poets are probably Burns and Larkin as well as my dear ma obvs.
That's fantastic that your mother is a poet. It is just such a brave thing to do imo. Plus a hell of a statement. I don't suppose different from being "an artist" although somehow lends itself to an acknowledgement of a greater insight into humanity.
Would love to read her stuff but appreciate it ain't happening on a largely anonymous internet forum.
I also like the old WWI cartoon joke of an orderly rushing into Command HQ and saying: it's getting desperate, we're down to our last poet.
I wonder if the Republic of Ireland's policy of strict neutrality and refusal to countenance membership of NATO could have some bearing on the talk about a border poll and unification.
Yes, Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU. But are people there content to be removed from NATO?
Just a thought. Not seen it mentioned anywhere.
Indeed, the UK would only use Trident to defend UK cities or at most NATO cities, nobody else.
The Republic of Ireland is less at risk from Putin than other non NATO members nearer Russia like Georgia or Finland but nonetheless being outside of NATO's umbrella is a risk
I don't really think that's the point TBH. Ireland is, effectively, protected by the NATO umbrella. At no risk at all unless the UK is reduced to a smoking desert.
There was a jokey post I saw recently which featured a picture of a Danish frigate with the commentary that it could destroy the entire Irish Navy in one fell stroke before the Irish even knew what had happened.
The question is, in an age of virtue signalling, whether such a craven approach would really sit well? Ulstermen are a doughty breed.
I wonder if the Republic of Ireland's policy of strict neutrality and refusal to countenance membership of NATO could have some bearing on the talk about a border poll and unification.
Yes, Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU. But are people there content to be removed from NATO?
Just a thought. Not seen it mentioned anywhere.
Ireland's policy is not one of strict neutrality. It's never been like Switzerland was. And now they're calling it "neutral, but not neutral".
Much as I defer to the military strategists on here I think it is premature to determine that for one reason (logisitcs, morale, equipment readiness, whatever) or another, as evidenced by six pictures on twitter and one bbc picture of a tank with a thrown track, that the Russian invasion is failing.
This is not playing out in 24-hr news/twitter time. Best to wait a while to take stock before raising the winner's hand.
It's not that the Russian invasion is failing - they will probably still 'win', tactically - but Ukraine has not only exceeded our expectations but put a serious dent in Russia's ability to move on to the next domino; and meanwhile has allowed the west time to regroup. Who knows, in Russia's timeline, they may already have expected to have moved on to Moldova or Estonia. Ukraine is still resisting, a week into the invasion by one of the world's biggest militaries. Russia didn't expect that, and neither did I.
Just as important. They've won the media war. No way will Russia take the Ukraine and go back to business as usual. Not for decades now.
The Russian government are apparently forcing its population to watch videos about the war in Ukraine, in order to counter fake news and misinformation on social media. Sounds like they may be in a bit of trouble regarding public opinion.
Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.
The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
Yes, one thing that has seemed more hopeful from this crisis is the rooting out of of a lot of officially-appointed Kremlin trolls from various parts of social media. That surely must make it a bit harder.
I've also wondered something else, recently - there may have been Kremlin trolls on the most extreme fringes of the ID politics left, too.
Plenty of them on all sides. What they were interested in is polarisation and demonisation of opponents. We in the west need to work hard to bring civility back to political debate.
Russia has clearly infiltrated the identitarian left. It has stoked the race wars and culture wars from both sides (recall, again, the Russian bots pretending to be English football fan racists after the euro finals). We have been gamed. Which is one reason the culture wars have been so destructive. The left needs to clean its act and purge these fuckers, as it is now belatedly doing with Stop the War
All the statue toppling iconoclastic woke bullshit is being driven by Russia. Because it weakens western self confidence. Who can now honestly deny this?
I've got some confidence in Zelenskiy. He could have said "retribution", here, which is already feeling like the strong temptation in some western societies.
Versailles was all about the reparations. Apart from the bit about disarming Germany so they couldn't fight another war....
And yes, the Germans could have paid it - it was less of an economic burden than they imposed on the French in 1870.
The problem was that the military elite, who'd been selling "we are about to win" up until 10 minutes before the refs whistle, switched (seamlessly) to "we were robbed".
Back to the Balkans, one thing you *don't* get in Serb Ultra Nationalist circles is "We were wining, but". They know they lost.
I wonder if the Republic of Ireland's policy of strict neutrality and refusal to countenance membership of NATO could have some bearing on the talk about a border poll and unification.
Yes, Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU. But are people there content to be removed from NATO?
Just a thought. Not seen it mentioned anywhere.
Ireland's policy is not one of strict neutrality. It's never been like Switzerland was. And now they're calling it "neutral, but not neutral".
It's not impossible to see Ireland join NATO now.
I thought Sinn Fein were surging in the Irish polls? Are they NATO enthusiasts?
- And now they're calling it "neutral, but not neutral". - LOL
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario...
Is it ?
None of that is yet written. Except by you, of course.
Leon writes in pencil. That way, things can be changed....
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
A throwaway comment on the radio yesterday said Putin's approval had risen 12% because of this. Don't know how trustworthy that is, but it doesn't augur well for any swift overthrow hopes.
Yes, all the reports I’m reading say that Russian state propaganda INSIDE Russia is working very well. They all believe this is a defensive move against nasty Ukrainian fascists. And of course people rally to the flag in any war, even one as rubbish and wicked as this (even Iraq had majority support in the UK at one point)
I am a bit blue today. After a horrible plague, a horrible war? It feels like this is a new pattern in human affairs. After decades of things generally getting better, now they are generally getting worse, and this will continue for some time
Yeah Russian bloke on r4 yesterday saying the urban young get unbiased news off internet, everyone else watches and believes official TV. Including Putin, spend s hours watching himself apparently
In the interests of transparency on poetrybetting.com, I'm in the JossiasJessop camp - poetry generally doesn't move me, just words awkwardly arranged. I dont dislike but I dont get it like most.
I hate jazz though.
Poetry is wonderful. The one form of writing that you can read over and over again. Just like the way some music bears, indeed benefits from, repeated listens. Just find the poets that work for you.
I have to confess that I struggled with jazz. Have some sympathy there. Then discovered jazz fusion (later Miles Davis etc)...and jazz inflected rock such as elements of King Crimson. There are riches there.
Is there a name for the difference between that very personal sense of enjoyment of a piece of art, that visceral this-speaks-to-me, and the purely technical appreciation - brilliant artist, great composition, but-not-for me? Also goes for art forms as well as artists....
There is Welsh artist - Thomas Jones - who in the 18th century did some paintings of Naples: mainly buildings etc, ordinary ones, in the back streets. Not great buildings. They are lovely but not great art and some are in the National Gallery here and in Wales. I adore them - I have a real emotional reaction to them because they are pictures from my life. Hard to explain but those pictures speak to me and should be on my walls not being stared at by a load of uncomprehending strangers.
Much as I defer to the military strategists on here I think it is premature to determine that for one reason (logisitcs, morale, equipment readiness, whatever) or another, as evidenced by six pictures on twitter and one bbc picture of a tank with a thrown track, that the Russian invasion is failing.
This is not playing out in 24-hr news/twitter time. Best to wait a while to take stock before raising the winner's hand.
Ukraine has not only exceeded our expectations but put a serious dent in Russia's ability to move on to the next domino
We simply don't know that. We don't know the strategic plan. Maybe your idea of a delay is simply what it takes to invade a country these days; perhaps it is to give time for other, diplomatic activities. We don't know and twitter is not going to tell us.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
A throwaway comment on the radio yesterday said Putin's approval had risen 12% because of this. Don't know how trustworthy that is, but it doesn't augur well for any swift overthrow hopes.
Yes, all the reports I’m reading say that Russian state propaganda INSIDE Russia is working very well. They all believe this is a defensive move against nasty Ukrainian fascists. And of course people rally to the flag in any war, even one as rubbish and wicked as this (even Iraq had majority support in the UK at one point)
I am a bit blue today. After a horrible plague, a horrible war? It feels like this is a new pattern in human affairs. After decades of things generally getting better, now they are generally getting worse, and this will continue for some time
I'm keeping abrest of Russian propaganda, and it's probably working. The truth is that there are people in the east of Ukraine sympathetic to Russia. How many there are is up for debate, but the Russian reporters are finding them.
Much as I defer to the military strategists on here I think it is premature to determine that for one reason (logisitcs, morale, equipment readiness, whatever) or another, as evidenced by six pictures on twitter and one bbc picture of a tank with a thrown track, that the Russian invasion is failing.
This is not playing out in 24-hr news/twitter time. Best to wait a while to take stock before raising the winner's hand.
It's not that the Russian invasion is failing - they will probably still 'win', tactically - but Ukraine has not only exceeded our expectations but put a serious dent in Russia's ability to move on to the next domino; and meanwhile has allowed the west time to regroup. Who knows, in Russia's timeline, they may already have expected to have moved on to Moldova or Estonia. Ukraine is still resisting, a week into the invasion by one of the world's biggest militaries. Russia didn't expect that, and neither did I.
We may not have expected it, but I wonder whether our government did? Afterall we've been training and supplying Ukraine for years.
The thing that strikes me, looking back, is Boris's immediate video response saying from memory that "Russia must fail and be seen to fail" in its invasion. Biden from memory said similar too.
At the time that just struck me as typical Boris boosterism - but looking back, I wonder if there's more to it than that, and that Boris, Biden etc had war-gamed what is happening now?
If Russia can be defeated and lose this invasion, not just 'the peace' afterwards, then that is going to be a major paradigm shift going forwards.
I've got some confidence in Zelenskiy. He could have said "retribution", here, which is already feeling like the strong temptation in some western societies.
Versailles was all about the reparations. Apart from the bit about disarming Germany so they couldn't fight another war....
And yes, the Germans could have paid it - it was less of an economic burden than they imposed on the French in 1870.
The problem was that the military elite, who'd been selling "we are about to win" up until 10 minutes before the refs whistle, switched (seamlessly) to "we were robbed".
Back to the Balkans, one thing you *don't* get in Serb Ultra Nationalist circles is "We were wining, but". They know they lost.
But you also have to look at emotion versus rational calculation, and what led the process. The non-German powers after 1918-19 weren't particularly interested in whether Germany could sustainably pay it in the long-term or not.
! Ukrainian armed forces announced that they have killed maj. gen. Andrey Sukhovetskiy, a Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk. This appears confirmed by a spokesperson of the Russian Paratroopers Union. If confirmed, major demotivator for RU.
As a way for a Russian general to go, it makes a change from getting bumped off by Putin, I suppose.
Putin's legacy may not be all bad, you know. He's hastening the transition of the West towards alternative energy sources and doing his bit to demilitarise Russia through the losses in Ukraine.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
A throwaway comment on the radio yesterday said Putin's approval had risen 12% because of this. Don't know how trustworthy that is, but it doesn't augur well for any swift overthrow hopes.
Claiming to like the boss - even as you quietly seethed - is an entirely legitimate survival technique in somewhere like today’s Russia.
I've got some confidence in Zelenskiy. He could have said "retribution", here, which is already feeling like the strong temptation in some western societies.
Versailles was all about the reparations. Apart from the bit about disarming Germany so they couldn't fight another war....
And yes, the Germans could have paid it - it was less of an economic burden than they imposed on the French in 1870.
The problem was that the military elite, who'd been selling "we are about to win" up until 10 minutes before the refs whistle, switched (seamlessly) to "we were robbed".
Back to the Balkans, one thing you *don't* get in Serb Ultra Nationalist circles is "We were wining, but". They know they lost.
But you also have to look at emotion versus rational calculation, and what led the process. The non-German powers after 1918-19 weren't particularly interested in whether Germany could sustainably pay it in the long-term or not.
Because they could.
That they didn't want to, that they'd rather put the money into rearming themselves, is an entirely different matter.
Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.
The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
Yes, one thing that has seemed more hopeful from this crisis is the rooting out of of a lot of officially-appointed Kremlin trolls from various parts of social media. That surely must make it a bit harder.
I've also wondered something else, recently - there may have been Kremlin trolls on the most extreme fringes of the ID politics left, too.
Plenty of them on all sides. What they were interested in is polarisation and demonisation of opponents. We in the west need to work hard to bring civility back to political debate.
Russia has clearly infiltrated the identitarian left. It has stoked the race wars and culture wars from both sides (recall, again, the Russian bots pretending to be English football fan racists after the euro finals). We have been gamed. Which is one reason the culture wars have been so destructive. The left needs to clean its act and purge these fuckers, as it is now belatedly doing with Stop the War
All the statue toppling iconoclastic woke bullshit is being driven by Russia. Because it weakens western self confidence. Who can now honestly deny this?
The horrible irony is that in the States the Trumpists are battening on to this and benefiting.
It's like a vicious circle, all of it undermining the West.
! Ukrainian armed forces announced that they have killed maj. gen. Andrey Sukhovetskiy, a Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk. This appears confirmed by a spokesperson of the Russian Paratroopers Union. If confirmed, major demotivator for RU.
As a way for a Russian general to go, it makes a change from getting bumped off by Putin, I suppose.
Putin's legacy may not be all bad, you know. He's hastening the transition of the West towards alternative energy sources and doing his bit to demilitarise Russia through the losses in Ukraine.
And potentially also shown the world that his massive army aint up to much. Ok bombing the poor people of Syria from the air but not too good in mud.
The Russian government are apparently forcing its population to watch videos about the war in Ukraine, in order to counter fake news and misinformation on social media. Sounds like they may be in a bit of trouble regarding public opinion.
The lessons are guided by manuals distributed through the school system that outline the approved version of events.
According to one such manual, the contents of which were published by the independent Russian media outlet MediaZona, the Ukrainian nation did not exist until the 20th century and in 2014 suffered a bloody coup d’état that installed an American puppet regime.
The story goes that after the self-described Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine rose up against it, they were besieged and subjected to a “genocide” for eight years, which Russia is now preventing through a “special peacekeeping operation” (the materials explicitly state this is “not a war”)...
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
As a best case scenario there's no way that Russia is going to be able to install and maintain a Moscow-friendly puppet regime. The Ukrainians won't have it, and the Russians aren't powerful enough to enforce it.
Best case scenario: The logistics problems become endemic crippling the Russian military, the Russian military loses its morale and fragments, NATO is able to keep Ukraine supplied with munitions, Russia ends up humiliated in retreat and Putin's regime collapses.
I was being a little bit sarcastic in saying “best case” but anyway
Your best case actually sounds quite frightening to me. A Putin regime in total headlong collapse, with a military facing humiliating defeat, is the most obvious route to nuclear war. It would be his last option. And I gravely fear that he’d take it
! Ukrainian armed forces announced that they have killed maj. gen. Andrey Sukhovetskiy, a Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk. This appears confirmed by a spokesperson of the Russian Paratroopers Union. If confirmed, major demotivator for RU.
To repeat, I don't think it's helpful to cherrypick twitter for "evidence" that things are moving in one direction or another.
And the death of a soldier in combat, if that is indeed what has happened, is not a "major demotivator for RU".
Indeed, the loss of Colonel H Jones didn't stop us retaking the Falklands.
But this is a social media war. It may not play so well in Russia, because they are being blocked from seeing a wider picture of Russia's true aims - and their setbacks. But it does give greater spine to those who are standing by Ukraine. The world can see it is an epic David v Goliath battle. But David no longer has a sling. He now has a Javelin....
I've got some confidence in Zelenskiy. He could have said "retribution", here, which is already feeling like the strong temptation in some western societies.
Versailles was all about the reparations. Apart from the bit about disarming Germany so they couldn't fight another war....
And yes, the Germans could have paid it - it was less of an economic burden than they imposed on the French in 1870.
The problem was that the military elite, who'd been selling "we are about to win" up until 10 minutes before the refs whistle, switched (seamlessly) to "we were robbed".
Back to the Balkans, one thing you *don't* get in Serb Ultra Nationalist circles is "We were wining, but". They know they lost.
But you also have to look at emotion versus rational calculation, and what led the process. The non-German powers after 1918-19 weren't particularly interested in whether Germany could sustainably pay it in the long-term or not.
Because they could.
That they didn't want to, that they'd rather put the money into rearming themselves, is an entirely different matter.
It wasn't quite as simple as that, and if the same logic is applied to Russia - hoping that we get out of this current mess first - the same maximalist long-term approach will just result in another disaster two decades down the line.
On he subject of useful work for our forthcoming Ukranian friends has anyone considered training them up as tube drivers ? Helps Londoners, the treasury and the Ukranians. Edit: Obviously a "scheme" which I'm sure some would take up...
I've got some confidence in Zelenskiy. He could have said "retribution", here, which is already feeling like the strong temptation in some western societies.
Versailles was all about the reparations. Apart from the bit about disarming Germany so they couldn't fight another war....
And yes, the Germans could have paid it - it was less of an economic burden than they imposed on the French in 1870.
The problem was that the military elite, who'd been selling "we are about to win" up until 10 minutes before the refs whistle, switched (seamlessly) to "we were robbed".
Back to the Balkans, one thing you *don't* get in Serb Ultra Nationalist circles is "We were wining, but". They know they lost.
But you also have to look at emotion versus rational calculation, and what led the process. The non-German powers after 1918-19 weren't particularly interested in whether Germany could sustainably pay it in the long-term or not.
Because they could.
That they didn't want to, that they'd rather put the money into rearming themselves, is an entirely different matter.
It wasn't re-armament, in the 20s. It was simply unwillingness to pay. Germany, as a society, thought that the War Guilt clause and reparations was *unfair*. The leadership had sold them on "it will be an equal peace - a draw" right up until Versailles.
My fear is not just that Russia will pound Ukraine mercilessly as it did in Syria and Chechnya but that it will go round arresting and killing the leaders of Ukrainian civic society: politicians, teachers, artists, lawyers, journalists, anyone prominent or with any sort of following, just as they did in Poland and other Warsaw Pact states.
Putin is another Stalin. A man who has his police arrest primary school age children and 92 year old women is capable of - and will do - anything.
I wonder if the Republic of Ireland's policy of strict neutrality and refusal to countenance membership of NATO could have some bearing on the talk about a border poll and unification.
Yes, Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU. But are people there content to be removed from NATO?
Just a thought. Not seen it mentioned anywhere.
Indeed, the UK would only use Trident to defend UK cities or at most NATO cities, nobody else.
The Republic of Ireland is less at risk from Putin than other non NATO members nearer Russia like Georgia or Finland but nonetheless being outside of NATO's umbrella is a risk
I don't really think that's the point TBH. Ireland is, effectively, protected by the NATO umbrella. At no risk at all unless the UK is reduced to a smoking desert.
There was a jokey post I saw recently which featured a picture of a Danish frigate with the commentary that it could destroy the entire Irish Navy in one fell stroke before the Irish even knew what had happened.
The question is, in an age of virtue signalling, whether such a craven approach would really sit well? Ulstermen are a doughty breed.
It isn't because it is not in NATO. If Putin sent a few subs and ships and paratroopers to the Irish Republic then there is no guarantee NATO would respond with military force.
Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.
The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
Yes, one thing that has seemed more hopeful from this crisis is the rooting out of of a lot of officially-appointed Kremlin trolls from various parts of social media. That surely must make it a bit harder.
I've also wondered something else, recently - there may have been Kremlin trolls on the most extreme fringes of the ID politics left, too.
Plenty of them on all sides. What they were interested in is polarisation and demonisation of opponents. We in the west need to work hard to bring civility back to political debate.
Russia has clearly infiltrated the identitarian left. It has stoked the race wars and culture wars from both sides (recall, again, the Russian bots pretending to be English football fan racists after the euro finals). We have been gamed. Which is one reason the culture wars have been so destructive. The left needs to clean its act and purge these fuckers, as it is now belatedly doing with Stop the War
All the statue toppling iconoclastic woke bullshit is being driven by Russia. Because it weakens western self confidence. Who can now honestly deny this?
"It's not us, it's you" == "I haven't understood this issue yet"
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
A throwaway comment on the radio yesterday said Putin's approval had risen 12% because of this. Don't know how trustworthy that is, but it doesn't augur well for any swift overthrow hopes.
Yes, all the reports I’m reading say that Russian state propaganda INSIDE Russia is working very well. ...
The reports you're reading from Russia say that Russian propaganda is working very well?
I've got some confidence in Zelenskiy. He could have said "retribution", here, which is already feeling like the strong temptation in some western societies.
Versailles was all about the reparations. Apart from the bit about disarming Germany so they couldn't fight another war....
And yes, the Germans could have paid it - it was less of an economic burden than they imposed on the French in 1870.
The problem was that the military elite, who'd been selling "we are about to win" up until 10 minutes before the refs whistle, switched (seamlessly) to "we were robbed".
Back to the Balkans, one thing you *don't* get in Serb Ultra Nationalist circles is "We were wining, but". They know they lost.
But you also have to look at emotion versus rational calculation, and what led the process. The non-German powers after 1918-19 weren't particularly interested in whether Germany could sustainably pay it in the long-term or not.
They actually did quite a few calculations on what the Germans could pay. Which is why the final numbers were much lower than the French originally demanded, for example.
Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.
The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
Yes, one thing that has seemed more hopeful from this crisis is the rooting out of of a lot of officially-appointed Kremlin trolls from various parts of social media. That surely must make it a bit harder.
I've also wondered something else, recently - there may have been Kremlin trolls on the most extreme fringes of the ID politics left, too.
Plenty of them on all sides. What they were interested in is polarisation and demonisation of opponents. We in the west need to work hard to bring civility back to political debate.
Russia has clearly infiltrated the identitarian left. It has stoked the race wars and culture wars from both sides (recall, again, the Russian bots pretending to be English football fan racists after the euro finals). We have been gamed. Which is one reason the culture wars have been so destructive. The left needs to clean its act and purge these fuckers, as it is now belatedly doing with Stop the War
All the statue toppling iconoclastic woke bullshit is being driven by Russia. Because it weakens western self confidence. Who can now honestly deny this?
Me.
As I've said to you since you started making this ridiculous claim, Western diversity of thought and challenging ourselves to become better versions of ourselves is our greatest strength, not a weakness.
Looking at the hollowed out weak and corrupt failure that Russia is and you will see what happens when nations ossify around "strength" and "unity". It is an unmitigated disaster.
For as long as the West challenges itself more than its enemies challenge us, we will be in a very strong position.
The young toppling statues is no different to 1960s hippies and counter-culture challenging their elders preconceptions.
Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.
The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
Yes, one thing that has seemed more hopeful from this crisis is the rooting out of of a lot of officially-appointed Kremlin trolls from various parts of social media. That surely must make it a bit harder.
I've also wondered something else, recently - there may have been Kremlin trolls on the most extreme fringes of the ID politics left, too.
Plenty of them on all sides. What they were interested in is polarisation and demonisation of opponents. We in the west need to work hard to bring civility back to political debate.
Russia has clearly infiltrated the identitarian left. It has stoked the race wars and culture wars from both sides (recall, again, the Russian bots pretending to be English football fan racists after the euro finals). We have been gamed. Which is one reason the culture wars have been so destructive. The left needs to clean its act and purge these fuckers, as it is now belatedly doing with Stop the War
All the statue toppling iconoclastic woke bullshit is being driven by Russia. Because it weakens western self confidence. Who can now honestly deny this?
For Russia read China too, Western division boosts both
Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.
The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
Yes, one thing that has seemed more hopeful from this crisis is the rooting out of of a lot of officially-appointed Kremlin trolls from various parts of social media. That surely must make it a bit harder.
I've also wondered something else, recently - there may have been Kremlin trolls on the most extreme fringes of the ID politics left, too.
Plenty of them on all sides. What they were interested in is polarisation and demonisation of opponents. We in the west need to work hard to bring civility back to political debate.
Russia has clearly infiltrated the identitarian left. It has stoked the race wars and culture wars from both sides (recall, again, the Russian bots pretending to be English football fan racists after the euro finals). We have been gamed. Which is one reason the culture wars have been so destructive. The left needs to clean its act and purge these fuckers, as it is now belatedly doing with Stop the War
All the statue toppling iconoclastic woke bullshit is being driven by Russia. Because it weakens western self confidence. Who can now honestly deny this?
The current situation is a disaster of Putins own making. The culture wars may well be over. Decolonisation has taken on an urgent and imminent purpose of which almost everyone is in agreement: there is an actual self declared colonist invading Europe, bombing cities and killing innocent people, and who has declared his intention to carry on once he has succeeded.
Not only that, it is an old white man, surrounded by other old white men, who are homophobic, racist and misogynistic.
All of a sudden, the need to deal with the psychological legacies of our long rejected involvement with slavery 300 years ago becomes much less urgent.
I've got some confidence in Zelenskiy. He could have said "retribution", here, which is already feeling like the strong temptation in some western societies.
Versailles was all about the reparations. Apart from the bit about disarming Germany so they couldn't fight another war....
And yes, the Germans could have paid it - it was less of an economic burden than they imposed on the French in 1870.
The problem was that the military elite, who'd been selling "we are about to win" up until 10 minutes before the refs whistle, switched (seamlessly) to "we were robbed".
Back to the Balkans, one thing you *don't* get in Serb Ultra Nationalist circles is "We were wining, but". They know they lost.
As usual, absolute fecking nonsense from you.
My favourite scientist, Wilhelm Rontgen refused to patent his discovery of X-rays because it was a medical gift to all the world. He was a great internationalist.
After WW1, though a Nobel prize winner and formerly a very distinguished & wealthy scientist, he was reduced to gathering nettles for nettle soup in post-War Bavaria. Many other starved to death.
There was a huge famine in Germany after WW1, which claimed half a million deaths. The country was bankrupt.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
A throwaway comment on the radio yesterday said Putin's approval had risen 12% because of this. Don't know how trustworthy that is, but it doesn't augur well for any swift overthrow hopes.
Yes, all the reports I’m reading say that Russian state propaganda INSIDE Russia is working very well. They all believe this is a defensive move against nasty Ukrainian fascists. And of course people rally to the flag in any war, even one as rubbish and wicked as this (even Iraq had majority support in the UK at one point)
I am a bit blue today. After a horrible plague, a horrible war? It feels like this is a new pattern in human affairs. After decades of things generally getting better, now they are generally getting worse, and this will continue for some time
I'm keeping abrest of Russian propaganda, and it's probably working. The truth is that there are people in the east of Ukraine sympathetic to Russia. How many there are is up for debate, but the Russian reporters are finding them.
There has been a debate raging among the membership of a global, although German-based, non-profit foundation of which I'm an (mostly inactive) member on whether or not to publicly make a statement of support for Ukraine. A Russian member, living in Russia, whom I've worked with in the past and considered sane (although we've never discussed politics) posted a rant about Western intereference in Ukraine, the West-sponsored coup that toppled the democratically elected pro-Russian leader, NATO threatening Russia etc etc. Even he stated that Ukraine's government is not Nazi, but described them as extremists oppressing the Russian peoples of the East. To be clear, I think most/all of what he posted is complete nuts, but I haven't previously thought him to be nuts, so I assume the propaganda there, not just now but over the last decade or so since Russian interference in Ukraine, has been quite effective.
! Ukrainian armed forces announced that they have killed maj. gen. Andrey Sukhovetskiy, a Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk. This appears confirmed by a spokesperson of the Russian Paratroopers Union. If confirmed, major demotivator for RU.
As a way for a Russian general to go, it makes a change from getting bumped off by Putin, I suppose.
Putin's legacy may not be all bad, you know. He's hastening the transition of the West towards alternative energy sources and doing his bit to demilitarise Russia through the losses in Ukraine.
Tojo & Hitler - men who rebuilt their countries in to liberal democracies, totally eliminating militarism & imperialism.
I wonder if the Republic of Ireland's policy of strict neutrality and refusal to countenance membership of NATO could have some bearing on the talk about a border poll and unification.
Yes, Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU. But are people there content to be removed from NATO?
Just a thought. Not seen it mentioned anywhere.
Ireland's policy is not one of strict neutrality. It's never been like Switzerland was. And now they're calling it "neutral, but not neutral".
It's not impossible to see Ireland join NATO now.
I thought Sinn Fein were surging in the Irish polls? Are they NATO enthusiasts?
- And now they're calling it "neutral, but not neutral". - LOL
Indeed. If Sinn Fein won the next general election in the Republic of Ireland their policies would be close to what Corbyn Labour would have adopted had they won the 2017 or 2019 UK general elections
My fear is not just that Russia will pound Ukraine mercilessly as it did in Syria and Chechnya but that it will go round arresting and killing the leaders of Ukrainian civic society: politicians, teachers, artists, lawyers, journalists, anyone prominent or with any sort of following, just as they did in Poland and other Warsaw Pact states.
Putin is another Stalin. A man who has his police arrest primary school age children and 92 year old women is capable of - and will do - anything.
Yes ; and that's partly why I've been hoping there has been some palace intrigue around the level we saw of the late 'forties to around 1955 or 6 , at the end of Stalin's time and just after. There have been some signals, making me more prone to hope, as someone interested in the way the totalitarian regime used to communicate at that time, but they're a bit haphazard and conflicting so far.
Well, I'm prone to both a more optimistic and realistic outlook, but I very much hope I wasn't wrong in thinking that any rational sense has been seen in Russia yet, going from the various signals. Every day seems to start more gloomily and end more slightly more positively on that front recently, though, so let's hope.
Feels quite gloomy this morning.
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
A throwaway comment on the radio yesterday said Putin's approval had risen 12% because of this. Don't know how trustworthy that is, but it doesn't augur well for any swift overthrow hopes.
Yes, all the reports I’m reading say that Russian state propaganda INSIDE Russia is working very well. They all believe this is a defensive move against nasty Ukrainian fascists. And of course people rally to the flag in any war, even one as rubbish and wicked as this (even Iraq had majority support in the UK at one point)
I am a bit blue today. After a horrible plague, a horrible war? It feels like this is a new pattern in human affairs. After decades of things generally getting better, now they are generally getting worse, and this will continue for some time
Yeah Russian bloke on r4 yesterday saying the urban young get unbiased news off internet, everyone else watches and believes official TV. Including Putin, spend s hours watching himself apparently
! Ukrainian armed forces announced that they have killed maj. gen. Andrey Sukhovetskiy, a Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk. This appears confirmed by a spokesperson of the Russian Paratroopers Union. If confirmed, major demotivator for RU.
To repeat, I don't think it's helpful to cherrypick twitter for "evidence" that things are moving in one direction or another.
And the death of a soldier in combat, if that is indeed what has happened, is not a "major demotivator for RU".
Indeed, the loss of Colonel H Jones didn't stop us retaking the Falklands.
But this is a social media war. It may not play so well in Russia, because they are being blocked from seeing a wider picture of Russia's true aims - and their setbacks. But it does give greater spine to those who are standing by Ukraine. The world can see it is an epic David v Goliath battle. But David no longer has a sling. He now has a Javelin....
2 relevant pieces of folk wisdom
1. The race is not always to the swift not the battle to the strong, but that's where the smart money is
2. A good big un will always beat a good little un
Comments
..how that works out for Russia will be fascinating.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/ukraine-russia-belarus-war-crimes-investigation-the-hague
...The prosecutor of the international criminal court (ICC) in The Hague has announced that he will launch an investigation into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine.
Karim Khan said that although Ukraine was not a member of the ICC, it had awarded jurisdiction to the court. He said that there was grounds to open an investigation based on a previous preliminary investigation on Crimea and the Donbas published last year, and on current events in Ukraine.
“I have already tasked my team to explore all evidence preservation opportunities,” Khan, a British lawyer, said.
He said that he could go to ICC judges to approve the inquiry, but it would be faster if an ICC member state referred the case to his office, “which would allow us to actively and immediately proceed with the office’s independent and objective investigations”...
Since which 34 (I think) member states have made referrals.
A post conflict Russia might even extradite the fucker.
I’m sure Chris Bryant has a list of this but I can’t find anything so far.
Thanks in advance.
Also clear that Putins generals aren’t telling him the whole truth about Russian military capability
The idea of his succeeding Putin is, I think, fanciful.
I have to confess that I struggled with jazz. Have some sympathy there. Then discovered jazz fusion (later Miles Davis etc)...and jazz inflected rock such as elements of King Crimson. There are riches there.
It is fine putting war crimes up against an African or Middle Eastern or Serbian despot, it is another against the leader of a P5 UN Security Council permanent member and major power unless they are toppled and replaced by a regime hostile to its predecessor
“a bolder plan to send Russian-made MiG-29 and Su-25 jets, of the kind familiar to Ukraine’s pilots, from Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria collapsed this week. It is not clear how realistic the proposal was, but if the plan was to revive it, it could provide help to Kyiv’s beleaguered air force.”
Guardian
Memo to despots: inspecting your troops is not purely ceremonial. Do it, and make sure you are not being Potemkined.
Though yes you can add the GFA as well
Yes, Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU. But are people there content to be removed from NATO?
Just a thought. Not seen it mentioned anywhere.
I think we're at the point where that should be considered as offensive as a swastika.
https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1499306030911692801
Had it not been for Brexit, Covid and the War, then the two recent Royal crises (Andrew, Harry) would be much more prominent events in the last three years, but they're so incredibly minor in comparison.
Similarly, we also had a fuel crisis! I doubt it will even figure as a footnote in twenty years time, while the fuel crisis of 2000 has such prominence because there wasn't much else going on.
The Republic of Ireland is less at risk from Putin than other non NATO members nearer Russia like Georgia or Finland but nonetheless being outside of NATO's umbrella is a risk
The dude on the right is also Oleksiy Potyomkin.
The ballet dancer has joined up, like many people from all walks of life in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/NataliaAntonova/status/1499247548581699587
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1499278273766957059
Russia is going to slowly flatten Ukraine. Probably divide it in two along the Dnieper. Thousands and thousands will die. The east will be absorbed into Russia itself, like Crimea. The west of Ukraine will be run by a Moscow-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv
But Russia, crippled by sanctions, its economy in freefall, will then have to face an Iraq style insurgency, even as Russia is left with no money and an unhappy military
That’s the best case scenario
Worst: nukes
Does anyone have a headache?
Writing good poetry is an incredible skill and it's interesting to me how some quite obnoxious and misanthropic people were able to write so beautifully and movingly about the human condition (Larkin the obvious example). My favourite poets are probably Burns and Larkin as well as my dear ma obvs.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499320660476182529
Don't know how trustworthy that is, but it doesn't augur well for any swift overthrow hopes.
Best case scenario: The logistics problems become endemic crippling the Russian military, the Russian military loses its morale and fragments, NATO is able to keep Ukraine supplied with munitions, Russia ends up humiliated in retreat and Putin's regime collapses.
None of that is yet written. Except by you, of course.
But the earliest poetry is the nursery rhymes that children learn or have spoken to them - the best way to get them to develop a good ear for the wonders of the English language: its rhythm, its structure, its musicality, its wonderful muscular expressiveness.
I do like some jazz. I had to learn a jazz piano piece for a music exam. God it was hard to learn. But in the end it turned out to be the piece for which I got the highest marks.
He gave it me back and told me to listen to it at least twice more. The first time I listened to it that evening, I still didn't get it. But I did what he said and played it again, and this time I thought there was something in it. So I played it a third time and decided it was brilliant. I still think so - one of the greatest albums of all time. But I've always been grateful to Brian for persuading me to persist with it.
When my dad, who wasn't into rock but was a big jazz fan, heard me playing it, he got into it too.
Sad that Ian McDonald died recently. Robert Fripp's lockdown videos with his wife were fun though.
And the death of a soldier in combat, if that is indeed what has happened, is not a "major demotivator for RU".
It's not massively likely, but it will hang over him for the rest of his life - very much unlike Bush or Blair.
But as some will daresay point out, I'm not a military man (tm).
In the absence of a Palace coup, the best outcome is a ceasefire as soon as possible, leaving a de facto boundary in place.
Unfortunately, neither side will probably accept this, as not enough people have died yet.
Who knows, in Russia's timeline, they may already have expected to have moved on to Moldova or Estonia.
Ukraine is still resisting, a week into the invasion by one of the world's biggest militaries. Russia didn't expect that, and neither did I.
I am a bit blue today. After a horrible plague, a horrible war? It feels like this is a new pattern in human affairs. After decades of things generally getting better, now they are generally getting worse, and this will continue for some time
It's not impossible to see Ireland join NATO now.
Ukraine are being supplied with a full range of military equipment and hardware. But it isn't a good idea to promote this.
Would love to read her stuff but appreciate it ain't happening on a largely anonymous internet forum.
I also like the old WWI cartoon joke of an orderly rushing into Command HQ and saying: it's getting desperate, we're down to our last poet.
There was a jokey post I saw recently which featured a picture of a Danish frigate with the commentary that it could destroy the entire Irish Navy in one fell stroke before the Irish even knew what had happened.
The question is, in an age of virtue signalling, whether such a craven approach would really sit well? Ulstermen are a doughty breed.
No way will Russia take the Ukraine and go back to business as usual.
Not for decades now.
All the statue toppling iconoclastic woke bullshit is being driven by Russia. Because it weakens western self confidence. Who can now honestly deny this?
And yes, the Germans could have paid it - it was less of an economic burden than they imposed on the French in 1870.
The problem was that the military elite, who'd been selling "we are about to win" up until 10 minutes before the refs whistle, switched (seamlessly) to "we were robbed".
Back to the Balkans, one thing you *don't* get in Serb Ultra Nationalist circles is "We were wining, but". They know they lost.
- And now they're calling it "neutral, but not neutral". - LOL
He will look back on this week with regret, I'm sure of it."
- me, January 19th 22:27
If they ever go missing .......
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2003/may/07/artsfeatures.popandrock1
... err, Tony, by any chance.
The thing that strikes me, looking back, is Boris's immediate video response saying from memory that "Russia must fail and be seen to fail" in its invasion. Biden from memory said similar too.
At the time that just struck me as typical Boris boosterism - but looking back, I wonder if there's more to it than that, and that Boris, Biden etc had war-gamed what is happening now?
If Russia can be defeated and lose this invasion, not just 'the peace' afterwards, then that is going to be a major paradigm shift going forwards.
That they didn't want to, that they'd rather put the money into rearming themselves, is an entirely different matter.
It's like a vicious circle, all of it undermining the West.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2/do-not-call-ukraine-invasion-a-war-russia-tells-media-schools
...Since Tuesday, schools across Russia have hosted special war-themed social studies classes, where teachers must tell schoolchildren between the seventh and 11th grades the official government’s position on history and what the Kremlin deems the “special operation”.
The lessons are guided by manuals distributed through the school system that outline the approved version of events.
According to one such manual, the contents of which were published by the independent Russian media outlet MediaZona, the Ukrainian nation did not exist until the 20th century and in 2014 suffered a bloody coup d’état that installed an American puppet regime.
The story goes that after the self-described Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine rose up against it, they were besieged and subjected to a “genocide” for eight years, which Russia is now preventing through a “special peacekeeping operation” (the materials explicitly state this is “not a war”)...
Your best case actually sounds quite frightening to me. A Putin regime in total headlong collapse, with a military facing humiliating defeat, is the most obvious route to nuclear war. It would be his last option. And I gravely fear that he’d take it
But this is a social media war. It may not play so well in Russia, because they are being blocked from seeing a wider picture of Russia's true aims - and their setbacks. But it does give greater spine to those who are standing by Ukraine. The world can see it is an epic David v Goliath battle. But David no longer has a sling. He now has a Javelin....
Helps Londoners, the treasury and the Ukranians.
Edit: Obviously a "scheme" which I'm sure some would take up...
Putin is another Stalin. A man who has his police arrest primary school age children and 92 year old women is capable of - and will do - anything.
As I've said to you since you started making this ridiculous claim, Western diversity of thought and challenging ourselves to become better versions of ourselves is our greatest strength, not a weakness.
Looking at the hollowed out weak and corrupt failure that Russia is and you will see what happens when nations ossify around "strength" and "unity". It is an unmitigated disaster.
For as long as the West challenges itself more than its enemies challenge us, we will be in a very strong position.
The young toppling statues is no different to 1960s hippies and counter-culture challenging their elders preconceptions.
Not only that, it is an old white man, surrounded by other old white men, who are homophobic, racist and misogynistic.
All of a sudden, the need to deal with the psychological legacies of our long rejected involvement with slavery 300 years ago becomes much less urgent.
My favourite scientist, Wilhelm Rontgen refused to patent his discovery of X-rays because it was a medical gift to all the world. He was a great internationalist.
After WW1, though a Nobel prize winner and formerly a very distinguished & wealthy scientist, he was reduced to gathering nettles for nettle soup in post-War Bavaria. Many other starved to death.
There was a huge famine in Germany after WW1, which claimed half a million deaths. The country was bankrupt.
1. The race is not always to the swift not the battle to the strong, but that's where the smart money is
2. A good big un will always beat a good little un
Sadly