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Once again Johnson surviving till 2024 is the betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited March 2022 in General
imageOnce again Johnson surviving till 2024 is the betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

For months the busiest UK political betting market has been the one above on when Johnson is going to be replaced. The Betdata.io chart tells the story of the past two months and as can be seen it was in mid-January that things looked very dark for the current occupant of number 10. All the talk then was of letters going to the chairman of the 1922 committee seeking a confidence vote. But that didn’t happen.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    first as the plotters weren't so will suffer as Bozo stays in place until the election.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    I wonder whether the Ukraine crisis will have a effect on the May local elections. If the conservatives do less badly than expected, it will also help Johnson keep his job.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Clearly the Ukraine war has knocked everything else off the agenda. Johnson survives until GE2024 now.

    Cummings must be livid.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    kjh said:

    So sorry I missed last night. Off to surgery in 10 min apparently, although they do seem to be leaving it a bit late in my humble opinion.

    Really hope it went well - let us know how you're feeling.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2022
    Gas £4.60/therm
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Train much busier than the last time I commuted into Leeds .

    Feels like normal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    kjh said:

    So sorry I missed last night. Off to surgery in 10 min apparently, although they do seem to be leaving it a bit late in my humble opinion.

    Best of British luck.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    kjh said:

    So sorry I missed last night. Off to surgery in 10 min apparently, although they do seem to be leaving it a bit late in my humble opinion.

    Hope all goes well.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    noneoftheabove said:

    Hope those who went had a great evening yesterday. On topic, I may or may not have an opinion on the thread, but it would be very wrong indeed to make that public before Sue Gray tells me what it is.

    Who is Sue Gray?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    kjh said:

    So sorry I missed last night. Off to surgery in 10 min apparently, although they do seem to be leaving it a bit late in my humble opinion.

    Hope all goes well - not wishing you luck as I don't want luck involved.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    Benpointer said:

    Clearly the Ukraine war has knocked everything else off the agenda. Johnson survives until GE2024 now.

    Cummings must be livid.

    Lets all take a breath. Remember that events can appear with little warning and blow up into huge all-consuming things. Whilst many Tory MPs have demonstrated they are frit / stupid, not all of them have said they will tolerate anything.

    So lets assume the Ukraine war soon resolves itself in a ceasefire and reparations, and we then get a bit of calm, and then someone in the Met leaks that Big Dog has been slapped with £12k of fines for multiple repeated breeches of the law.

    Will "he will survive" stand up to that? Here and now, as we wage a proxy war and its quiet on the domestic front it sure looks like he can survive. But what we have today won't necessarily be what we have every day until the election.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    FPT
    CarlottaVance said:

    I thought that quite sharp and a tad undiplomatic (if not untrue) - may not help achieve the outcome he wants. “EU bureaucrat tells UK what to do” is less likely to achieve results that the more even tone most have been using in both the U.K. and EU.

    Maybe, but this is what I was getting at earlier

    BoZo and chums tell the people we are leading the way, while the rest of the World knows that is not true

    Putin tells the people he is winning the "peacekeeping action", while the rest of the World knows that is not true
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    There is also growing attention on just how much Russian money is floating the Tories right now, and why they seem intent on letting oligarchs off the hook
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    NEW:

    London Stock Exchange suspends trading in 20 Russian firm’s London listings, many of which have already collapsed in value… including:

    Novatek
    Gazprom
    Lukoil
    Severstal
    Rodney
    Sberbank

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1499302047073673218/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ⌛ Keir Starmer urged the Prime Minister to act faster on Russian oligarchs in the UK

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/boris-johnson-pmqs-ukraine-russia-roman-abramovich-sanctions
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Scott_xP said:

    There is also growing attention on just how much Russian money is floating the Tories right now, and why they seem intent on letting oligarchs off the hook

    The extent to which top Tories became entangled with top Russians is a slow burn issue that is likely to rise up the news agenda, once the immediate crisis is over.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Whatever else, the Ukrainian authorities are winning the info war hands down:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/ukraine-authorities-say-seized-russian-tanks-dont-need-to-be-declared-on-tax-form

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/moscow-police-arrest-children-for-laying-flowers-at-ukrainian-embassy
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Interesting reports this morning that #Abramovich is trusted by President Zelensky, as a fellow prominent Jew, and could be playing a unique role in the peace talks. Private jet flight records suggest he flew to Moscow via Belarus...
    https://twitter.com/IsabelWebster_/status/1499301525482614787
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,818
    ping said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Hope those who went had a great evening yesterday. On topic, I may or may not have an opinion on the thread, but it would be very wrong indeed to make that public before Sue Gray tells me what it is.

    Who is Sue Gray?
    Former publican, with an "interesting" N Ireland backstory, permanent secretary for levelling up, and apparently a completely impartial and relentless truthsayer.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW:

    London Stock Exchange suspends trading in 20 Russian firm’s London listings, many of which have already collapsed in value… including:

    Novatek
    Gazprom
    Lukoil
    Severstal
    Rodney
    Sberbank

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1499302047073673218/photo/1

    Rodney? Is that a subsidiary of Trotters Independent Traders?
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 218
    in an alternative universe they toppled Boris a month ago and new PM Tugenhat is leading the west with its response to the Russian aggressor and receiving wide praise at home for his clear headed approach and specialist knowledge.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    kjh said:

    So sorry I missed last night. Off to surgery in 10 min apparently, although they do seem to be leaving it a bit late in my humble opinion.

    At last. Hope all goes well.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,818
    Benpointer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW:

    London Stock Exchange suspends trading in 20 Russian firm’s London listings, many of which have already collapsed in value… including:

    Novatek
    Gazprom
    Lukoil
    Severstal
    Rodney
    Sberbank

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1499302047073673218/photo/1

    Rodney? Is that a subsidiary of Trotters Independent Traders?
    Sells Peckham Spring in Moscow, and St Peterburg Spring to Waitrose in Chelsea.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Benpointer said:

    Clearly the Ukraine war has knocked everything else off the agenda. Johnson survives until GE2024 now.

    Cummings must be livid.

    Lets all take a breath. Remember that events can appear with little warning and blow up into huge all-consuming things. Whilst many Tory MPs have demonstrated they are frit / stupid, not all of them have said they will tolerate anything.

    So lets assume the Ukraine war soon resolves itself in a ceasefire and reparations, and we then get a bit of calm, and then someone in the Met leaks that Big Dog has been slapped with £12k of fines for multiple repeated breeches of the law.

    Will "he will survive" stand up to that? Here and now, as we wage a proxy war and its quiet on the domestic front it sure looks like he can survive. But what we have today won't necessarily be what we have every day until the election.
    I think what we have seen these past 12 months and beyond is that the answer is: yes. He will survive. Already Sue Gray seems like from a different era. There was plenty of well he got us through Brexit and had Covid poor man before Ukraine. During and post-Ukraine, when we simply don't know what the situation will be in Eastern Europe, people really will not care about a bottle of prosecco or a birthday cake.

    Any crisis strengthens the incumbent and I don't expect this one to be any different.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2022
    ping said:

    Gas £4.60/therm

    Unless my maths is crock, that’s 15.70p/kwh wholesale price.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Looks like it's greased piglet time again for Johnson, doesn't it!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    deleted. Vanilla duplicates again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    “Ukraine doesn’t want to be covered by the dead bodies of soldiers. Go home.”

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy tells Russian soldiers to retreat saying nearly 9,000 Russians have been killed in the past week @ZelenskyyUa     https://bloom.bg/3px95Da https://twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1499303944002150403/video/1
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    This is fascinating -

    @TrentTelenko

    This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

    1/

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Ruble 116/$
    Gold $1928
    Brent $119
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_xP said:

    FPT

    CarlottaVance said:

    I thought that quite sharp and a tad undiplomatic (if not untrue) - may not help achieve the outcome he wants. “EU bureaucrat tells UK what to do” is less likely to achieve results that the more even tone most have been using in both the U.K. and EU.

    Maybe, but this is what I was getting at earlier

    BoZo and chums tell the people we are leading the way, while the rest of the World knows that is not true

    Putin tells the people he is winning the "peacekeeping action", while the rest of the World knows that is not true
    Yes, Johnson does stupidly oversell.

    Some things Britain has done have been truly world leading (training the Ukraine army over the past seven years, arming them, aviation and maritime bans, now insurance). This is why the “Britain has done nothing” is so easily refuted.

    Some things Britain has done are in line with our peers - for example the 30 day notice - the same as the US - yet the US does not get criticised for this.

    Some things Britain has done have lagged our peers - especially on refugees and some sanctions on oligarchs - we’ve had some sanctioned for years already, ahead of some of our peers.

    If the critics focussed on the specifics of where Britain is lagging they’d be more effective.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    FPT
    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in leadership somewhere.

    The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.

    If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million is *not* in the world's interest.

    Nah, Puck Futin. Those sanctions are in for at least six months, after he withdraws to the pre-2014 border, pays $10bn into a damage fund and $1m to the family of each dead Ukranian.

    If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.
    Sounds a bit like this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles

    ...which worked out well.
    The Treaty of Versailles was a mistake because it imposed costs on a country that couldn't afford to pay.

    Russia has $600bn or so of reserves, that money could be used to cover repairs and other items. It's a very different situation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    DougSeal said:

    This is fascinating -

    @TrentTelenko

    This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

    1/

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944

    Yep, poor maintenance means they’re stuck using the black stuff.

    Otherwise, they look like…
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    ping said:

    ping said:

    Gas £4.60/therm

    Unless my maths is crock, that’s 15.70p/kwh wholesale price.
    What's that in USD per mmBTU?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    DougSeal said:

    This is fascinating -

    @TrentTelenko

    This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

    1/

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944

    It's all about logistics..
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    SandyRentool said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Gas £4.60/therm

    Unless my maths is crock, that’s 15.70p/kwh wholesale price.
    What's that in USD per mmBTU?
    Too complicated for my sleep deprived brain to calculate. That’s what it is. :)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited March 2022
    OldKingCole said:

    Looks like it's greased piglet time again for Johnson, doesn't it!

    As I said at the height of Partygate it was never going to get him. It was 18 months after she threw away their Commons majority that Tory MPs managed to get enough letters to Brady to trouble TMay, and even then she survived. The chances of enough them doing it to Johnson were always massively overhyped. There was always going to be an excuse not to - eg “wait for Sue Gray”, “wait for the police”, “wait for Godot”.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    Scott_xP said:

    ⌛ Keir Starmer urged the Prime Minister to act faster on Russian oligarchs in the UK

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/boris-johnson-pmqs-ukraine-russia-roman-abramovich-sanctions

    It was mentioned last night that the problem is with litigation against HMG from lawyers acting for Russian oligarchs and Boris and Starmer have agreed to work together in this respect
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Sandpit said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is fascinating -

    @TrentTelenko

    This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

    1/

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944

    Yep, poor maintenance means they’re stuck using the black stuff.

    Otherwise, they look like…

    Slava Rasputitsa!!!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.

    https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1499304979336777729
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    It does seem as though a sizeable proportion of the kit coming down from the north is stuck/broken/abandoned. It certainly isn't where the generals told Putin it would be.

    The Ukranians looking to pull it out the mud, clean it up and use it to replace their losses would seem a reason for them not to be destroying it all with drone strikes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting reports this morning that #Abramovich is trusted by President Zelensky, as a fellow prominent Jew, and could be playing a unique role in the peace talks. Private jet flight records suggest he flew to Moscow via Belarus...
    https://twitter.com/IsabelWebster_/status/1499301525482614787

    It is public knowledge he is part of the negotiating team and was filmed at the recent meetings
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Slackbladder said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is fascinating -

    @TrentTelenko

    This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

    1/

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944

    It's all about logistics..
    It’s *always* about logistics.

    Someone trained the Ukranians well, they know that taking out one fuel tanker takes out a dozen other trucks or tanks within a day or two, and puts more strain on the whole operation of the enemy over time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Scott_xP said:

    There is also growing attention on just how much Russian money is floating the Tories right now, and why they seem intent on letting oligarchs off the hook

    For example Alexander Temerko, who wrote this in the Guardian in 2015:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/11/britain-should-arm-ukraine

    Putin’s aggression in Ukraine is a clear continuation of his efforts to weaken his neighbours and impose his will on them. From his intimidation of the Baltics to his entrenchment in Georgia and Armenia, his strategy of sowing instability and establishing client states on his borders has been plain to see for years.

    Putin’s Russia stands openly opposed to traditional western values of liberal democracy and self-determination. This cold war mentality extends to the fact that Russia still casts Nato – the alliance many have now written off – as the primary threat to its security. The longer the west tiptoes around Putin, the stronger he appears at home. Strident nationalism has become the Kremlin’s preferred means of distracting people from the hardships of an economy now sliding into chaos. A weak and declining Russia is, if anything, likely to be more aggressive than a strong one.

    So when Putin retorts that “no one needs a conflict on the periphery of Europe”, he is not speaking for himself. We cannot, and must not, believe a single word he says: about the level of Russian involvement, about Russian commitment to a ceasefire, about the fate of flight MH17.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.

    https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1499304979336777729

    The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    DougSeal said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Looks like it's greased piglet time again for Johnson, doesn't it!

    As I said at the height of Partygate it was never going to get him. It was 18 months after she threw away their Commons majority that Tory MPs managed to get enough letters to Brady to trouble TMay, and even then she survived. The chances of enough them doing it to Johnson were always massively overhyped. There was always going to be an excuse not to - eg “wait for Sue Gray”, “wait for the police”, “wait for Godot”.
    It will come down to whether Boris is a liability on the doorsteps. He certainly was before the Ukrainian invasion. That was a matter of trust. Trust in the man to do right on the cost of living crisis doesn't get rebuilt by doing OK in a foreign adventure.

    There are still plenty of Conservative MPs watching and waiting on the Met/Grey reports. Notwithstanding Ukraine, if they report in a way that leads MPs to think Boris will still be a liability on the doorsteps by May 2024, that pressure will be there. Although that pressure may be relayed as Brady giving Boris the option of resigning at some settled point, to allow his successor to be put in place.

    There is certainly no appetite in the Party to remove him by Brady letters whilst the current situation in Ukraine is playing out.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BREAKING:

    The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. is about to announce that it will close its ports to Russian ships.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499305117891366917

    If only Britain would do the same…..
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Check out this photo released by Ukraine’s Foreign Minister - literally hundreds of civilians blocking the road to stop Russia’s advance

    @DmytroKuleba repeats call for no-fly zone to be imposed by western allies https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1499302851339866113
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited March 2022
    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.

    https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1499304979336777729

    The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
    Yes, one thing that has seemed more hopeful from this crisis is the rooting out of of a lot of officially-appointed Kremlin trolls from various parts of social media. That surely must make it a bit harder.

    I've also wondered something else, recently - there may have been Kremlin trolls on the most extreme fringes of the ID politics left, too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The world’s biggest shipping companies, MSC and Maersk, have suspended container shipping to and from Russia. Maersk said on Wednesday that shipments of foodstuffs and medical supplies to Russia risk being damaged or spoiled due to significant delays at ports and customs.
    https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1499304404448686080
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Georgia officially applies for EU membership.
    https://twitter.com/shpapuashvili/status/1499053439283875846
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Can someone explain what action has been taken by the UK Government against a single Russian oligarch. Not a commitment to action, or an intention to act. What has actually been done.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1499305683728187392

    I don’t understand why we haven’t seized a single Putin oligarch yacht, palace or serious asset yet. Unlike our European neighbours.
    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1499301278475857920
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_xP said:

    The world’s biggest shipping companies, MSC and Maersk, have suspended container shipping to and from Russia. Maersk said on Wednesday that shipments of foodstuffs and medical supplies to Russia risk being damaged or spoiled due to significant delays at ports and customs.
    https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1499304404448686080

    Has the Netherlands shut Rotterdam to Russian vessels yet?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    eek said:

    FPT

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in leadership somewhere.

    The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.

    If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million is *not* in the world's interest.

    Nah, Puck Futin. Those sanctions are in for at least six months, after he withdraws to the pre-2014 border, pays $10bn into a damage fund and $1m to the family of each dead Ukranian.

    If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.
    Sounds a bit like this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles

    ...which worked out well.
    The Treaty of Versailles was a mistake because it imposed costs on a country that couldn't afford to pay.

    Russia has $600bn or so of reserves, that money could be used to cover repairs and other items. It's a very different situation.
    Russia won't have $600 bn of reserves by the end of all this. It will be bankrupt.

    Unless we want a permanent battleground in the Ukraine (cf Israel & Palestine), then the endpoint has to be truth & reconciliation between moderates on both sides --- and the West rebuilding both countries.

    Of course, we are a long, long way from this point at the moment.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    eek said:

    FPT

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in leadership somewhere.

    The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.

    If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million is *not* in the world's interest.

    Nah, Puck Futin. Those sanctions are in for at least six months, after he withdraws to the pre-2014 border, pays $10bn into a damage fund and $1m to the family of each dead Ukranian.

    If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.
    Sounds a bit like this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles

    ...which worked out well.
    The Treaty of Versailles was a mistake because it imposed costs on a country that couldn't afford to pay.

    Russia has $600bn or so of reserves, that money could be used to cover repairs and other items. It's a very different situation.
    I wouldn't agree there. Russia has very narrowly almost destroyed the entire world. There's a very strong natural human urge to completely humiliate and destroy in return. If Putin and the threats go, though, we should be very careful not to repeat some of the mistakes of the 1990s.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited March 2022
    MarqueeMark said:

    DougSeal said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Looks like it's greased piglet time again for Johnson, doesn't it!

    As I said at the height of Partygate it was never going to get him. It was 18 months after she threw away their Commons majority that Tory MPs managed to get enough letters to Brady to trouble TMay, and even then she survived. The chances of enough them doing it to Johnson were always massively overhyped. There was always going to be an excuse not to - eg “wait for Sue Gray”, “wait for the police”, “wait for Godot”.
    It will come down to whether Boris is a liability on the doorsteps. He certainly was before the Ukrainian invasion. That was a matter of trust. Trust in the man to do right on the cost of living crisis doesn't get rebuilt by doing OK in a foreign adventure.

    There are still plenty of Conservative MPs watching and waiting on the Met/Grey reports. Notwithstanding Ukraine, if they report in a way that leads MPs to think Boris will still be a liability on the doorsteps by May 2024, that pressure will be there. Although that pressure may be relayed as Brady giving Boris the option of resigning at some settled point, to allow his successor to be put in place.

    There is certainly no appetite in the Party to remove him by Brady letters whilst the current situation in Ukraine is playing out.
    This war is not going to be resolved in the next few months or even years and will dominate well into the future which is why I believe Boris will be in place for the rest of this year and into next

    However, he is seeing an increase in his ratings and most certainly is very popular in Ukraine and the Baltic countries

    This may well give him and the party the opportunity to move on and enable a sensible change in leadership of the conservative party and PM sometime from mid 2023

    Ben Wallace live on BBC in Tallinn and he becomes more impressive day by day and must be in with a chance to succeed Boris
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Nigelb said:

    Georgia officially applies for EU membership.
    https://twitter.com/shpapuashvili/status/1499053439283875846

    I read that as 'Google' for a moment. Which would be a rather odd move...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Kherson being taken changes things quite a bit I think. It is on the west bank of the Dneiper and taking it opens the road from Crimea to Odesa
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:


    His military has proven to be a paper tiger, .

    This is a very premature assessment. They are proud fuckers with no particular aversion to brutality.

    They could still give Kyiv the full Grozhny treatment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Some Ukranians find a working Russian tank and take it for a spin...

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sGFGaqjVIKE
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    CarlottaVance said:

    BREAKING:

    The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. is about to announce that it will close its ports to Russian ships.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499305117891366917

    If only Britain would do the same…..

    I agree, with one caveat: we need to ensure the Russian sailors can actually get to a port. Allow them to refuel so they can reach a friendly/neutral port, and revictualled if they really need it.

    There are horrors stories out there about sailors trapped on their ships because of things like non-payment of fees by the ship's owners.

    https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/crews-are-abandoned-on-ships-in-record-numbers-without-pay-food-or-a-way-home/
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    His military has proven to be a paper tiger, .

    This is a very premature assessment. They are proud fuckers with no particular aversion to brutality.

    They could still give Kyiv the full Grozhny treatment.
    Kyiv is almost a Holy City to Russia, the Kyivan Rus and all that. Possible but unlikely.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    NerysHughes said:

    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
    Of course; the lucky general bit is not that he has had no matters to fight but that by the circumstance of events and timing he is still there in No 10 when a lucky general would not have been.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited March 2022
    Alistair said:

    Kherson being taken changes things quite a bit I think. It is on the west bank of the Dneiper and taking it opens the road from Crimea to Odesa

    As long as there's no sign of a ceasefire or change at the top, the current approach should be continued, and sanctions spread further.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    edited March 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Slackbladder said:

    DougSeal said:

    This is fascinating -

    @TrentTelenko

    This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

    1/

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944

    It's all about logistics..
    It’s *always* about logistics.

    Someone trained the Ukranians well, they know that taking out one fuel tanker takes out a dozen other trucks or tanks within a day or two, and puts more strain on the whole operation of the enemy over time.
    One of the more remarkable aspects of this was the drone footage (usual caveats apply) of a strike on a fuel supply train inside Russia.

    The planning and defensive actions by the Ukrainians have to be admired, considering they have had a large part of the Red Army come visit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.

    https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1499304979336777729

    The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
    And check the spam filter of your email account - if you use a web account I bet there's hugely less spam in there than usual!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    NerysHughes said:

    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
    That's both simultaneously lucky and unlucky.

    If you think back to who the most consequential Prime Ministers of the 20th Century are, for good or ill, they are people who had to deal with events. I would probably say David Lloyd George, Chamberlain, Churchill, Attlee and Thatcher.

    Boris is possibly the first Prime Minister of the 21st Century that belongs in that sort of category. Even if he's replaced before the next election (or loses it) he's already dealt with more than some PMs who've been in charge longer.

    Between Brexit, Covid and now the Russian/Ukrainian war, in a hundred years time I expect students of history will be finding Boris's time far more interesting than eg Blair's or Cameron's even though he's not likely to match either of their length of tenure in Downing Street.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Alistair said:

    Kherson being taken changes things quite a bit I think. It is on the west bank of the Dneiper and taking it opens the road from Crimea to Odesa

    As long as there's no sign of a ceasefire or change at the top, the current approach should be continued, and sanctions spread further.
    Ceasefire and withdrawal to pre-invasion borders with the UN into the disputed territories so legitimate referendums can be run. In an interconnected world Russia is going to find out what being disconnected means.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin has cranked up the troll and bot farms. #Istandwithrussia is trending. Particularly nasty that many of the Russian trolls are masquerading as Black people to play the race card. There is definitely a racist element to this crisis, but Putin is no friend to Black people.

    https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1499304979336777729

    The American commentators who spend their whole day on Twitter, had already noticed that the place had become somewhat nicer in the past few days.
    Yes, one thing that has seemed more hopeful from this crisis is the rooting out of of a lot of officially-appointed Kremlin trolls from various parts of social media. That surely must make it a bit harder.

    I've also wondered something else, recently - there may have been Kremlin trolls on the most extreme fringes of the ID politics left, too.
    I had been thinking the same thing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    IanB2 said:

    Some Ukranians find a working Russian tank and take it for a spin...

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sGFGaqjVIKE

    Considering they are having their country pounded to pulp in places, the Ukrainians do seem to have an enormous sense of FUN still....

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    His military has proven to be a paper tiger, .

    This is a very premature assessment. They are proud fuckers with no particular aversion to brutality.

    They could still give Kyiv the full Grozhny treatment.
    I just wonder what would happen after that. There's a lot of Ukraine left, and if Ukraine wants to continue the war, I think public opinion in the West will ensure they receive all the money and arms they want.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    The last RedfieldWilton poll which had Johnson tied with Starmer for best PM on 36% each while Starmer led Sunak 37% to 36% is important.

    It emphasises how Boris has narrowed Labour's lead again and if no Tory leader looks more electable than him he is likely secure

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1498364904180523010?s=20&t=ZmpoKza2hnyLN_qx78uShQ

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1498357496976654337?s=20&t=ZmpoKza2hnyLN_qx78uShQ
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    NerysHughes said:

    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
    All of which has deflected from the facts that he has no real agenda, no actual policies to back up and deliver his various vacuous promises, cannot actually manage anything or govern effectively, and that Brexit has been entirely bad news....which for him is lucky.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Much as I defer to the military strategists on here I think it is premature to determine that for one reason (logisitcs, morale, equipment readiness, whatever) or another, as evidenced by six pictures on twitter and one bbc picture of a tank with a thrown track, that the Russian invasion is failing.

    This is not playing out in 24-hr news/twitter time. Best to wait a while to take stock before raising the winner's hand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    His military has proven to be a paper tiger, .

    This is a very premature assessment. They are proud fuckers with no particular aversion to brutality.

    They could still give Kyiv the full Grozhny treatment.
    Except that Kyiv is ten times the size of Grozny.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    «Russia, get yourselves familiar with the words ‘reparation’ and ‘contribution’”- president Volodymyr Zelensky in his morning address

    https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1499312598399000578
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    It was after Putin's rant of a speech that I sent an e-mail to a couple of Bojo-hating friends saying that he was the luckiest PM ever. It was obvious the Septics were calling this one right, and Lily was poised to invade. When the spectre of WW3 appears, less important matters pale into insignificance.

    Bojo blusters, exaggerates and makes things up routinely, but did you notice his hair has been tamed, and when he can read from a script, he sounds almost logical. I think the full stops help. With one bound, he was free. His only advantage is he's lazy, so that minmises the damage he can do.

    We're stuck with him for the next couple of years.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    NerysHughes said:

    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
    Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    His military has proven to be a paper tiger, .

    This is a very premature assessment. They are proud fuckers with no particular aversion to brutality.

    They could still give Kyiv the full Grozhny treatment.
    You can be proud and brutal and even brave and at the same time still woefully incompetent.
    Pride only does so much when you've forgotten to bring enough fuel and food and it turns out all the money you thought had been spent on tanks has been stolen and actually what you've got are a lot of WW2 remnants.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Fair to say that we're now in something of a race between Russian forces encircling Kyiv, Western arms getting to Ukrainians & Western sanctions obliterating the Russian economy?

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1499313569946611712
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Considering how much Russia keeps talking about "demilitarisation" I think its important the world should say "you first" to them.

    The notion that Ukraine could or ever should be "demilitarised" or "neutral" ever again after this is utterly barmy. Russia, like Germany post-WWII possibly should be.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,785
    FPT:
    Good morning, everyone.

    I fear Zelensky's success means he may end up as a modern day Viriathus, doomed to be assassinated for the crime of competent defiance.

    On-topic: Starmer down to 6.2 on Betfair to be next PM. May still be value but I think I'll sit on the 12 or suchlike I backed him at earlier.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    HYUFD said:

    The last RedfieldWilton poll which had Johnson tied with Starmer for best PM on 36% each while Starmer led Sunak 37% to 36% is important.

    It emphasises how Boris has narrowed Labour's lead again and if no Tory leader looks more electable than him he is likely secure

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1498364904180523010?s=20&t=ZmpoKza2hnyLN_qx78uShQ

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1498357496976654337?s=20&t=ZmpoKza2hnyLN_qx78uShQ

    I expect the Conservatives to get at least a few opinion poll leads during this month.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    HYUFD said:

    NerysHughes said:

    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
    Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
    As if the death of a royal caused by drunk-driving, as dramatic as that might have been for some, is remotely comparable to say COVID.

    The fact that's what you're leading with shows just how calm most Blair's time was. Though if I was to say the exception I would have gone with 9/11 rather than a car crash.

    There was also of course the Good Friday Agreement, though most of the work towards that was done under Thatcher and Major he got to finish it off.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited March 2022
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Considering how much Russia keeps talking about "demilitarisation" I think its important the world should say "you first" to them.

    The notion that Ukraine could or ever should be "demilitarised" or "neutral" ever again after this is utterly barmy. Russia, like Germany post-WWII possibly should be.

    There's no chance that they'll accept any demilitarisation beyond NATO and missiles, I think, and why should they. The new different and slightly different rhetoric from Lavrov yesterday about "certain kinds of weapons" indicates that he possibly knows that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    What are we thinking about the war crimes thing against Putin.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,521
    kjh said:

    So sorry I missed last night. Off to surgery in 10 min apparently, although they do seem to be leaving it a bit late in my humble opinion.

    Good luck kjh. I understand that the traditional response is 'break a leg' but under the circumstances.... :)

    Seriously. Hope it goes well.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    NerysHughes said:

    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
    Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
    There was also of course the Good Friday Agreement, though most of the work towards that was done under Thatcher and Major he got to finish it off.
    Whereas of course it was Boris who really finished it off.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    NerysHughes said:

    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
    Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
    As if the death of a royal caused by drunk-driving, as dramatic as that might have been for some, is remotely comparable to say COVID.

    The fact that's what you're leading with shows just how calm most Blair's time was. Though if I was to say the exception I would have gone with 9/11 rather than a car crash.

    There was also of course the Good Friday Agreement, though most of the work towards that was done under Thatcher and Major he got to finish it off.
    The Uk's training of the Ukranian army ('operation orbital') was a decision taken by the Coalition Government prior to the 2015 election.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    IanB2 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    NerysHughes said:

    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
    Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
    As if the death of a royal caused by drunk-driving, as dramatic as that might have been for some, is remotely comparable to say COVID.

    The fact that's what you're leading with shows just how calm most Blair's time was. Though if I was to say the exception I would have gone with 9/11 rather than a car crash.

    There was also of course the Good Friday Agreement, though most of the work towards that was done under Thatcher and Major he got to finish it off.
    The Uk's training of the Ukranian army ('operation orbital') was a decision taken by the Coalition Government prior to the 2015 election.
    Indeed and a very good decision it was too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    In the interests of transparency on poetrybetting.com, I'm in the JossiasJessop camp - poetry generally doesn't move me, just words awkwardly arranged. I dont dislike but I dont get it like most.

    I hate jazz though.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    HYUFD said:

    NerysHughes said:

    algarkirk said:

    If there is value it is with 2023 exit date. We are in a world where no-one knows anything about where the world, UK party politics or Boris will be in 6 months time. So the value is in the longest price among the possible runners.

    Over the last few months the media have focussed almost exclusively on only one story at a time - Covid, Borisgate, War. If it goes back to being exclusively focussed on domestic politics Boris could yet be in trouble. But has there been a luckier general?

    Lucky?

    In Blairs first 3 years he had nothing to deal with.

    I doubt other than Churchill there has been a PM in the last 100 years who has had more to deal with in their first 3 years.
    Blair had Princess Diana's death to deal with within months of being elected and Kosovo to deal with in 1999 followed by the fuel crisis of 2000 and foot and mouth
    A tanker driver strike against a once in a 100 year pandemic and the first major war in europe for 77 years.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    I wonder if this kind of thing will start to cut through:



    If it does, and I hope it does but I don’t think it will to the scale I would like, on top of Partygate and rocketing prices it could cause real problems for the Tories.

    I keep linking to these two cause I think they’re funny; this made me laugh - a parody of a certain Lincolnshire MP: https://youtu.be/vz8OmKHnU_Y
This discussion has been closed.