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SystemSystem Posts: 12,678
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll has Yes leading by 1% – A month ago, no lead by 20.

As ever this is one poll, but since the second debate, it would appear the momentum is very much with Yes. It is the first poll to have Yes ahead since last September.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,915
    Game changing? Big Mo?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    Second!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 10s

    Tory MPs from all wings of the party tell Sunday Times they think Cameron they will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    edited September 2014
    Second? Like I hope 'Yes' are on 19th September I still think No will win out due to higher turnout from their supporters, the worry of this poll and a wobble from enough Yes supporters. The situation will need careful management post-result though for all the UK.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Betfair Sportsbook has Yes at 3.75.
    Betfair Exhange has Yes at 3.3.

    Does Betfair let you arb with itself? Suspect my account might get knobbled if I tried that elsewhere, does Betfair do that? It's a weird situation, this.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,915
    Normally, high over 60 vote would matter, as they tend to actually vote. But with a 80%+ turnout and 16 year old voters? Who knows.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Um.... different comments showing when you go to politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com from here? Did SIndy break it?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Where is my post ? I even saw it.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2014
    Wow.

    Can't help but wonder though, whether this might be a blessing in disguise for the "No" side. I'm guessing some of the recent converts did so because their heart was saying yes, while realistically deep down not thinking independence would happen. But seeing now that it ACTUALLY REALLY might happen might be too much of a leap in the dark for some people who only started seriously contemplating it in the last couple of months.

    And I say this as someone who'd probably be voting "Yes" if I were Scottish.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    One for SeanT

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 10s

    Tory MPs from all wings of the party tell Sunday Times they think Cameron they will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    Any intel on panelbase?

    This poll should energize both sides, I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 48s

    Several Tory MPs expected to publicly demand the prime minister's resignation if there is a Yes vote in Scotland
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 1m

    Two Tory ministers have told MPs they feel they would have to resign if there is a Yes vote in Scotland. Cabinet members think Dave might go
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    surbiton said:

    Where is my post ? I even saw it.

    I think it got stuck somewhere. It shows up when you go via the vanillaforums.

  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    TSE,

    You'd better change the 'lead' in the title to 'led' before anyone else spots it.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Are we finally going to start getting more regular polls on this now, btw?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Where is George Galloway when you need him ?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Shadsy is looking at a loss if this plays out, right? But didn't WH take the largest political bet ever on No winning? Someone there is enjoying a sherry tonight!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 1m

    Two Tory ministers have told MPs they feel they would have to resign if there is a Yes vote in Scotland. Cabinet members think Dave might go

    As much as I want a change in government, this is not the way. I don't want a UKIPocracy!
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 1m

    Two Tory ministers have told MPs they feel they would have to resign if there is a Yes vote in Scotland. Cabinet members think Dave might go

    Any names or usual journalist fairy tales?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    Ninoinoz said:

    TSE,

    You'd better change the 'lead' in the title to 'led' before anyone else spots it.

    Cheers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,886
    FREEDOM!!!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MOE. Nothing to see. Move along.

    ;-)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,886
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    One for SeanT

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 10s

    Tory MPs from all wings of the party tell Sunday Times they think Cameron they will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence

    Vote YES, get (rid of) Dave?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 48s

    Several Tory MPs expected to publicly demand the prime minister's resignation if there is a Yes vote in Scotland

    David Davis?

    I guess the ones which have been actively supporting No would have a basis to do this. Are there any?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,915
    Quincel said:

    Shadsy is looking at a loss if this plays out, right? But didn't WH take the largest political bet ever on No winning? Someone there is enjoying a sherry tonight!

    £800,000 according to Michael White in Guardian.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    surbiton said:

    Where is George Galloway when you need him ?

    He's busy driving more into the yes camp with his hypocrisy

  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    surbiton said:

    Where is George Galloway when you need him ?

    In hospital with a broken jaw?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AS I wrote in the previous thread, Cameron would not have to resign if YES had led for many months.

    If YES suddenly goes into the lead with 12 days to go and maintains it, the suddenness will bring out different emotions.

    Until tonight this was not seriously contemplated.

    Does anyone remember what the Devolution vote was ?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,592
    edited September 2014
    16/1 Dave goes in 2014 looking a smidge of value
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,915
    matt said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 1m

    Two Tory ministers have told MPs they feel they would have to resign if there is a Yes vote in Scotland. Cabinet members think Dave might go

    Any names or usual journalist fairy tales?
    He has to go. In historical terms, no PM could survive this. But in the modern world of honour-free politics - who knows?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    Well clearly the momentum now with Yes, but as Quebec showed in 1995 No could still eke out a win if it convinces undecideds of the case for No. In 1995 Yes led in the final Quebec polls, but No won through winning undecideds. In that campaign made a passionate TV appeal for Canadian unity and a huge unity rally was held in Montreal with people from across Canada, as Fraser Nelson sets out here, Cameron and No should listen and learn, a far more positive case for the union now needs to be made in the final fortnight, those wary for economic reasons will now all be No
  • philip1philip1 Posts: 1
    When will Scottish Labour seats be not longer up for grabs if yes wins?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    TSE,

    You'd better change the 'lead' in the title to 'led' before anyone else spots it.

    Cheers.
    The URL betrays you ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,915
    philip1 said:

    When will Scottish Labour seats be not longer up for grabs if yes wins?

    2016.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,592
    Off topic

    Olivier Giroud is probably the most handsome footballer to play in the prem... And he knows it

    Great ad

    http://youtu.be/gNC_-uzRebQ
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Ninoinoz said:

    surbiton said:

    Where is George Galloway when you need him ?

    In hospital with a broken jaw?
    Imagine, he turns up in a Glasgow Working Men's club on Wednesday evening and the whole of Scotland watching him on live TV.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    What a poll! We're in for an interesting final ten days.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/06/latest-scottish-referendum-poll-yes-lead/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    edited September 2014
    A new analysis of yougov polls without Scotland has also been released at a timely moment

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/507592656415760384/photo/1

    It shows Labour would still be narrowly ahead in England and Wales, but crucially the Tories + UKIP would be on 51% as opposed to 47% with Scotland, meaning Farage could hold the balance of power after independence. In that case currency union is dead on arrival
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    TSE,

    You'd better change the 'lead' in the title to 'led' before anyone else spots it.

    Cheers.
    The URL betrays you ;)
    Auto-correct betrayed me, and everything happening at once.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    rottenborough said:

    matt said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 1m

    Two Tory ministers have told MPs they feel they would have to resign if there is a Yes vote in Scotland. Cabinet members think Dave might go

    Any names or usual journalist fairy tales?
    He has to go. In historical terms, no PM could survive this. But in the modern world of honour-free politics - who knows?
    I'm not objecting to your view but Crichel Down would be the last in principle example of this. It's not a modern world point unless the modern world starts in 1958.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 33s

    The NEXT YouGov Scotland #indyref poll will be in Friday's Times....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    A new analysis of yougov polls without Scotland has also been released at a timely moment

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/507592656415760384/photo/1

    It shows Labour would still be narrowly ahead in England and Wales, but crucially the Tories + UKIP would be on 51% as opposed to 47% with Scotland, meaning Farage could hold the balance of power after independence. In that case currency union is dead on arrival

    Labour still forms government.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    HYUFD said:

    A new analyses of yougov polls without Scotland has also been released at a timely moment

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/507592656415760384/photo/1

    It shows Labour would still be narrowly ahead in England and Wales, but crucially the Tories + UKIP would be on 51% as opposed to 47% with Scotland, meaning Farage could hold the balance of power after independence. In that case currency union is dead on arrival

    Re: the 51% figure : that is not how it works!!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,057
    Tricky one to call. I'm always surprised by people's need to stick to nurse for fear of worse but it's real. This could be the wake up call and if anyone thinks the English are small c conservative they should watch the Scots......
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    One for SeanT

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 10s

    Tory MPs from all wings of the party tell Sunday Times they think Cameron they will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence

    Vote YES, get (rid of) Dave?
    If Scotland votes YES, would Cameron think of going for a quick general election, if he could get the Lib Dems to agree. Because of the fixed parliament act, it would take the government to lose a vote of no confidence.

    Would there be any advantage of an early election for the Tories ? They would probably be more ready that the other parties, but I am not sure the electorate would be happy to be rushed into an election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 33s

    The NEXT YouGov Scotland #indyref poll will be in Friday's Times....

    We want more... More I tell you!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    Behave you, that's the thread I'm going to write for tomorrow or Monday
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 33s

    The NEXT YouGov Scotland #indyref poll will be in Friday's Times....

    We want more... More I tell you!
    I'd be more interested in seeing other pollsters and if they're getting the same results.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    Artist said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 33s

    The NEXT YouGov Scotland #indyref poll will be in Friday's Times....

    We want more... More I tell you!
    I'd be more interested in seeing other pollsters and if they're getting the same results.
    Apparently there is a panelbase tonight.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    Easterross • Posts: 1,219

    9:40PM



    Does Labour have a death wish!!!

    Nick Sutton @suttonnick
    Mail on Sunday front page - "Miliband: We'll put guards on Scottish border"
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited September 2014
    For those who reckon the YES side will just sneak it, Ladbrokes' odds of 3.33/1 on a YES vote of between 50% -55% looks like the best value currently around, but hurry, this price can't last on the back of these latest polling numbers..
    DYOR.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    In case you missed it

    There's going to be a Panelbase out at midnight.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,142
    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    A day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    I always said Alistair Darling was overrated.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Install Referendum 1.1

    10 Shout "Nasty Tories".
    20 Goto 10.

    Salmond: Hey, it worked!

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Quebec was "saved" by the Federal Government spending 10s of millions bussing and flying in Canadians from other Provinces with Quebecois and Federal flags and doing a love in. Where would better together get those people? The English press have spent the last 3 years telling the English public that Scots are both subsidy junkies and hate the English. It's not an option. Westminster destroyed that option with their pathetic campaign based on hate and fear.

    And now they lose and the rUK will be impoverished without Scots subsidies. Especially the VAT and Corporation Tax which are classed as "London Region" but are based on Scottish economic activity.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    hucks67 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    One for SeanT

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 10s

    Tory MPs from all wings of the party tell Sunday Times they think Cameron they will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence

    Vote YES, get (rid of) Dave?
    If Scotland votes YES, would Cameron think of going for a quick general election, if he could get the Lib Dems to agree. Because of the fixed parliament act, it would take the government to lose a vote of no confidence.

    Would there be any advantage of an early election for the Tories ? They would probably be more ready that the other parties, but I am not sure the electorate would be happy to be rushed into an election.
    Why would the LibDems agree?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rottenborough said:

    philip1 said:

    When will Scottish Labour seats be not longer up for grabs if yes wins?

    2016.
    The Tories would provoke a constitutional crisis. They may want to put of the election until 2017 or not allow the election to be held in Scotland.

    Uncharted territory. House of Lords. Supreme Court. Packed with .......... !
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,593
    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    I never heard anything about it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    A day.
    Wow! Even more potent voter-repellant than I thought!
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    Gordon Brown was up as well. Prescott next week. Carnage guaranteed.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    HYUFD said:

    Well clearly the momentum now with Yes, but as Quebec showed in 1995 No could still eke out a win if it convinces undecideds of the case for No. In 1995 Yes led in the final Quebec polls, but No won through winning undecideds. In that campaign made a passionate TV appeal for Canadian unity and a huge unity rally was held in Montreal with people from across Canada, as Fraser Nelson sets out here, Cameron and No should listen and learn, a far more positive case for the union now needs to be made in the final fortnight, those wary for economic reasons will now all be No

    The major difference is Quebec was never more than a province. Scotland has been a separate country for 1300 years.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    16/1 Dave goes in 2014 looking a smidge of value

    I have just upped my stake on this. Good call.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Easterross said:


    Easterross • Posts: 1,219

    9:40PM



    Does Labour have a death wish!!!

    Nick Sutton @suttonnick
    Mail on Sunday front page - "Miliband: We'll put guards on Scottish border"

    I bet he didn't say that. It's the f*cking Mail, for God's sake.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    A new analysis of yougov polls without Scotland has also been released at a timely moment

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/507592656415760384/photo/1

    It shows Labour would still be narrowly ahead in England and Wales, but crucially the Tories + UKIP would be on 51% as opposed to 47% with Scotland, meaning Farage could hold the balance of power after independence. In that case currency union is dead on arrival

    People have ALWAYS overestimated how much Labour "relies" on Scotland. In 2010 they did hugely better in Scotland than elsewhere, because of Gordon Brown. But other than that, in every election of the past 25 years, Labour have ALWAYS done better in Northern England and Wales (and sometimes even London and the Midlands) than they did in Scotland.

    Where they would be hurt is in terms of seats, since Labour sweep the board in Scotland on relatively low shares of the vote because of the 4-party politics thing. In fact, Scotland accounts for almost all of the supposed "bias" to Labour in the electoral system.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    Gordon Brown was up as well. Prescott next week. Carnage guaranteed.
    We all know what happens when people egg John Prescott.

    Egg throwing Nats have been warned.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Dair said:



    And now they lose and the rUK will be impoverished without Scots subsidies. Especially the VAT and Corporation Tax which are classed as "London Region" but are based on Scottish economic activity.

    Can you explain? Presumably you are talking about oil profits received by the majors?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    Ed was taken into deepest, darkest Lanarkshire where he came off a luxury coach grinning like Grommit. The usual SLAB sycophants fawned all over. Some locals were heard off camera telling him to "get to fcuk"
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    peter_from_putney said:

    For those who reckon the YES side will just sneak it, Ladbrokes' odds of 3.33/1 on a YES vote of between 50% -55% looks like the best value currently around, but hurry, this price can't last on the back of these latest polling numbers..
    DYOR.

    Things could change, but the 10/11 on Yes Over 46.5% at Ladbrokes is also looking pretty generous. Not as generous as the 11/4 on a Yes vote at Betfair Sportsbook though!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    No, he did not. He appeared in Blantyre, could barely find one person to talk to for the TV cameras and then went to a closed meeting. All No Better meetings are closed by the way, they don't allow the public to attend only carefully screened and vetted people who agree to vote No. It's part of the reason they are losing. Its not 51/49 btw, theres a lot of people the pollsters don't even touch and most of them are Yes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,721
    edited September 2014
    Big thanks to Stuart Dickson who has been pointing out good "Yes" bets for the better part of a year now. If Yes wins I should have quite a bit to celebrate with!

    If the Yes price comes if even more after the Panelbase I might even start to sell some of my Yes position.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Easterross said:


    Easterross • Posts: 1,219

    9:40PM



    Does Labour have a death wish!!!

    Nick Sutton @suttonnick
    Mail on Sunday front page - "Miliband: We'll put guards on Scottish border"

    Christ,the man's a idiot if your a fan of the no vote,a bloody gift to the yes camp.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,142
    Easterross said:


    Easterross • Posts: 1,219

    9:40PM



    Does Labour have a death wish!!!

    Nick Sutton @suttonnick
    Mail on Sunday front page - "Miliband: We'll put guards on Scottish border"

    The guards are to stop the gadarene rush of SLAB mps (& Danny Alexander) towards English seats.

  • BrusMacGallahBrusMacGallah Posts: 1
    Oh Dear! The anglocentric media, pollsters and blogosphere appear to have called it wrong again. But why should any of them come to Scotland when the already know what the Jocks are up to. Those Rebellious Scots and their Knavish Tricks. Oh, and Nate Silver can go fudge himself as well. None of you have any idea what is happening on the ground in this faraway country of which you know little.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    One for SeanT

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 10s

    Tory MPs from all wings of the party tell Sunday Times they think Cameron they will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence

    Vote YES, get (rid of) Dave?
    Of course he'll go. Anyone with a brain knows this. Apparently - I'm sorry - some of you are not in possession of a functioning cerebellum.

    The next PM/Cameron resignation market is where the money is, as I've been saying since the Pleistocene.

    Now, back to my online dealing. Already got £10k out of cash sterling. Long way to go... Long day's journey into night....

    Point of pedantry. The cerebellum deals with balance and smoothing of movements, the are concerned with intellect is the cerebrum.

    Paridoxically, a run on the pound and stock market fall in fear of a yes vote may just tilt the balance of a few waverers to no...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,593
    Welcome newbies! I live in Scotland by the way.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Is there a market for when Danny Alexander joins the Tories ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    isam said:

    Off topic

    Olivier Giroud is probably the most handsome footballer to play in the prem... And he knows it

    Great ad

    http://youtu.be/gNC_-uzRebQ

    Great ad, Great cause.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    BrusMacGallah said:

    Oh Dear! The anglocentric media, pollsters and blogosphere appear to have called it wrong again. But why should any of them come to Scotland when the already know what the Jocks are up to. Those Rebellious Scots and their Knavish Tricks. Oh, and Nate Silver can go fudge himself as well. None of you have any idea what is happening on the ground in this faraway country of which you know little.

    So you think Murdoch has called it wrong and No will win?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Easterross said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well clearly the momentum now with Yes, but as Quebec showed in 1995 No could still eke out a win if it convinces undecideds of the case for No. In 1995 Yes led in the final Quebec polls, but No won through winning undecideds. In that campaign made a passionate TV appeal for Canadian unity and a huge unity rally was held in Montreal with people from across Canada, as Fraser Nelson sets out here, Cameron and No should listen and learn, a far more positive case for the union now needs to be made in the final fortnight, those wary for economic reasons will now all be No

    The major difference is Quebec was never more than a province. Scotland has been a separate country for 1300 years.
    I liked the analogy someone referred to here yesterday whereby away football supporters sometimes make the more noise, but ultimately lose the game.
    As a shy Tory yourself Easterross, what is your view about there being a significant number of shy NO voters - significant that is to possibly swing the result?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,468
    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    Can any one local in Scotland answer this:

    I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?

    If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?

    ;-)

    Behave you, that's the thread I'm going to write for tomorrow or Monday
    Messrs Charles and TSE, you might want to have a shufti at this -

    'On July 1st the Daily Record reported “Ed Miliband will be staying in Scotland in the build-up to September 18th. The Labour leader said he would set up camp north of the Border during the final push before the historic vote.”

    Interestingly, Ed didn't move north. Even more interestingly, no-one either remembered the pointless pledge or noticed it hadn’t been kept.'

    http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/9699-ed-has-yet-to-realise-that-scotland-has-moved-on

    (Ms Riddoch was NOT a pro-indy person originally.).



  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Charles said:

    Dair said:



    And now they lose and the rUK will be impoverished without Scots subsidies. Especially the VAT and Corporation Tax which are classed as "London Region" but are based on Scottish economic activity.

    Can you explain? Presumably you are talking about oil profits received by the majors?
    Not just Oil profits. Diageo makes most of its money from Whisky and all the VAT and Corporation Tax is classed as London revenue because their HQ is there. Same with any chain store which is based in England which is pretty much all of them. Every penny of VAT and Corporation Tax counts as English revenue in the GERS figures. You're looking at between £15bn and £25bn which Scotland will get after Independence.

    England is very, very, very fucked economically. Part of the reason they will be desperate for a Currency Union as it's the only way to avoid a Devaluation on Sterling.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    If the 59 Scottish seats are removed at the next election, how will the bookies interpret the seat bands? Will the bets be voided?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,057
    'To quote a famous Scotsman, it is now squeaky bum time for Unionists.'

    And to quote another famous Scotsman 'To know the winner I'd need crystal balls'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    RobD/Surbiton Without Scotland UKIP rises to 16% in England and Wales, the same total the LDs got in 1997, on that total they are bound to pick up seats in England and Wales. If it is Yes UKIP's total will likely rise above 20% as Farage promises UKIP is the surest way to stop currency union. On those numbers Farage will hold the balance of power beyond doubt
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe this will encourage the No campaign to take their collective finger out.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Tykejohnno said:

    Easterross said:


    Easterross • Posts: 1,219

    9:40PM



    Does Labour have a death wish!!!

    Nick Sutton @suttonnick
    Mail on Sunday front page - "Miliband: We'll put guards on Scottish border"

    Christ,the man's a idiot if your a fan of the no vote,a bloody gift to the yes camp.

    Be fair, the Mail probably asked something tothe effect of, will you be putting guards on the border? Answer yes, even subtly, and you get that headline. Answer no and it's border undefended, you're a traitor etc.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    The Sky reporter seemed to just suggest another poll tonight has No in the lead by 4%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    JamesM said:

    The Sky reporter seemed to just suggest another poll tonight has No in the lead by 4%

    The crappest crumb of comfort!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Dair said:

    Charles said:

    Dair said:



    And now they lose and the rUK will be impoverished without Scots subsidies. Especially the VAT and Corporation Tax which are classed as "London Region" but are based on Scottish economic activity.

    Can you explain? Presumably you are talking about oil profits received by the majors?
    Not just Oil profits. Diageo makes most of its money from Whisky and all the VAT and Corporation Tax is classed as London revenue because their HQ is there. Same with any chain store which is based in England which is pretty much all of them. Every penny of VAT and Corporation Tax counts as English revenue in the GERS figures. You're looking at between £15bn and £25bn which Scotland will get after Independence.

    England is very, very, very fucked economically. Part of the reason they will be desperate for a Currency Union as it's the only way to avoid a Devaluation on Sterling.
    Plus if England wishes to act as Uncle Sam's boy and throw a few toys here and there, Scotland will not be paying for those. Might even charge for Faslane until England finds another suitable place.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Eric Joyce has already started saying it may only be No because of English people living in Scotland:

    "If independence is prevented only by those, mainly English, folk who actively choose not to be ‘Scottish’, then there will be a very bad public response to such folk."

    http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2014/09/a-stymied-scottish-referendum-would-be-the-worst-result-of-all/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,728
    foxinsoxuk said:

    If the 59 Scottish seats are removed at the next election, how will the bookies interpret the seat bands? Will the bets be voided?

    Voided
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Quincel said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    For those who reckon the YES side will just sneak it, Ladbrokes' odds of 3.33/1 on a YES vote of between 50% -55% looks like the best value currently around, but hurry, this price can't last on the back of these latest polling numbers..
    DYOR.

    Things could change, but the 10/11 on Yes Over 46.5% at Ladbrokes is also looking pretty generous. Not as generous as the 11/4 on a Yes vote at Betfair Sportsbook though!
    O/T
    Quincel - you'd have won our would-have-been bet which expired yesterday!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    Safe to say Ed Milliband's gone down like a bowl of sick this week then?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited September 2014
    BBC News- Gordon Brown has written an article for a newspaper blaming the Tories and their policies for the narrowing in the polls. Sounds like #fallingapart
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    SeanT said:

    The Labour party has just died, as we know it. Can someone not raise a glass to that?

    I have now shifted £30k out of the pound. Useful to have a finance whizz brother in Vancouver.

    I hope you converted into Triganic Pu!
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Dair said:

    Quebec was "saved" by the Federal Government spending 10s of millions bussing and flying in Canadians from other Provinces with Quebecois and Federal flags and doing a love in. Where would better together get those people? The English press have spent the last 3 years telling the English public that Scots are both subsidy junkies and hate the English. It's not an option. Westminster destroyed that option with their pathetic campaign based on hate and fear.
    [cut]

    Yep, I think you're right. Still, this is a different country and maybe other factors will save the day. The fear & loathing directed northwards from some quarters has been remarkable to witness.
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