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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll has Yes leading by 1% – A month ago, no lead by 20.
As ever this is one poll, but since the second debate, it would appear the momentum is very much with Yes. It is the first poll to have Yes ahead since last September.
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Tory MPs from all wings of the party tell Sunday Times they think Cameron they will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence
Betfair Exhange has Yes at 3.3.
Does Betfair let you arb with itself? Suspect my account might get knobbled if I tried that elsewhere, does Betfair do that? It's a weird situation, this.
Can't help but wonder though, whether this might be a blessing in disguise for the "No" side. I'm guessing some of the recent converts did so because their heart was saying yes, while realistically deep down not thinking independence would happen. But seeing now that it ACTUALLY REALLY might happen might be too much of a leap in the dark for some people who only started seriously contemplating it in the last couple of months.
And I say this as someone who'd probably be voting "Yes" if I were Scottish.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 10s
Tory MPs from all wings of the party tell Sunday Times they think Cameron they will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence
This poll should energize both sides, I think.
Several Tory MPs expected to publicly demand the prime minister's resignation if there is a Yes vote in Scotland
Two Tory ministers have told MPs they feel they would have to resign if there is a Yes vote in Scotland. Cabinet members think Dave might go
You'd better change the 'lead' in the title to 'led' before anyone else spots it.
;-)
I guess the ones which have been actively supporting No would have a basis to do this. Are there any?
If YES suddenly goes into the lead with 12 days to go and maintains it, the suddenness will bring out different emotions.
Until tonight this was not seriously contemplated.
Does anyone remember what the Devolution vote was ?
Olivier Giroud is probably the most handsome footballer to play in the prem... And he knows it
Great ad
http://youtu.be/gNC_-uzRebQ
twitter.com/britainelects/status/507592656415760384/photo/1
It shows Labour would still be narrowly ahead in England and Wales, but crucially the Tories + UKIP would be on 51% as opposed to 47% with Scotland, meaning Farage could hold the balance of power after independence. In that case currency union is dead on arrival
The NEXT YouGov Scotland #indyref poll will be in Friday's Times....
Would there be any advantage of an early election for the Tories ? They would probably be more ready that the other parties, but I am not sure the electorate would be happy to be rushed into an election.
I think I remember seeing Ed Miliband was planning to spend last week in Scotland... did he do so & was there much coverage of it?
If so...can we draw any conclusions about his appeal to voters?
;-)
Easterross • Posts: 1,219
9:40PM
Does Labour have a death wish!!!
Nick Sutton @suttonnick
Mail on Sunday front page - "Miliband: We'll put guards on Scottish border"
DYOR.
There's going to be a Panelbase out at midnight.
10 Shout "Nasty Tories".
20 Goto 10.
Salmond: Hey, it worked!
And now they lose and the rUK will be impoverished without Scots subsidies. Especially the VAT and Corporation Tax which are classed as "London Region" but are based on Scottish economic activity.
Uncharted territory. House of Lords. Supreme Court. Packed with .......... !
Where they would be hurt is in terms of seats, since Labour sweep the board in Scotland on relatively low shares of the vote because of the 4-party politics thing. In fact, Scotland accounts for almost all of the supposed "bias" to Labour in the electoral system.
Egg throwing Nats have been warned.
If the Yes price comes if even more after the Panelbase I might even start to sell some of my Yes position.
Paridoxically, a run on the pound and stock market fall in fear of a yes vote may just tilt the balance of a few waverers to no...
As a shy Tory yourself Easterross, what is your view about there being a significant number of shy NO voters - significant that is to possibly swing the result?
'On July 1st the Daily Record reported “Ed Miliband will be staying in Scotland in the build-up to September 18th. The Labour leader said he would set up camp north of the Border during the final push before the historic vote.”
Interestingly, Ed didn't move north. Even more interestingly, no-one either remembered the pointless pledge or noticed it hadn’t been kept.'
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/9699-ed-has-yet-to-realise-that-scotland-has-moved-on
(Ms Riddoch was NOT a pro-indy person originally.).
England is very, very, very fucked economically. Part of the reason they will be desperate for a Currency Union as it's the only way to avoid a Devaluation on Sterling.
And to quote another famous Scotsman 'To know the winner I'd need crystal balls'
"If independence is prevented only by those, mainly English, folk who actively choose not to be ‘Scottish’, then there will be a very bad public response to such folk."
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2014/09/a-stymied-scottish-referendum-would-be-the-worst-result-of-all/
Quincel - you'd have won our would-have-been bet which expired yesterday!