Well, that tells me you're not German, otherwise you'd have tens of thousands!
Bwhaha.. thanks for making me almost spit out my beer.
Edit: and whenever I say the word 'collaborator' I always want to say it in the 'Allo 'Allo style!
Ah yes - cheese in the ears, "listen very carefully, I shall say zis only once", the fallen madonna with the big boobies. Never watched it.
My daughter's school recently changed the name of its teams to the Night Hawks. It used to be the Saints. They held a competition to choose the name - Nigel the Night Hawk.
She still gets mad when I do the "'allo 'allo, this is Night hawk. Over"
In his interview, Mr Miliband also mentioned his ‘personal connection’ with Scotland – his father, Ralph, was stationed at Inverkeithing, Fife, during the Second World War. ‘The rest of the UK would be much weaker without Scotland. It matters for reasons of heart and for head,’ he said.
Miliband should probably join Cameron and definitely Osborne in a secure facility until the referendum is over if 'no' wants to win.
"My Dad served in Inverkeithing during the war" I thought particularly moving, absolutely convincing me of his close personal connection and deep involvement in the life of Scotland.....
My wife is from Glasgow - does that make me better than Ed?
On topic. Looking at Panelbase and Yougov I believe we will only find the true state of the polls in the last 3 days before the referendum.
Off topic. I believe that yesterday I mentioned that Fox News has refered Farage as "Britain's next prime minister" and I questioned whether Murdoch is going to support him. Today we get this: HuffPost UK @HuffPostUK · 7h Is Murdoch preparing to back #ukip? http://huff.to/WujWNR
"During an advertisement break at the Cavuto show, the host reportedly turned to Farage and said: "Sir, the boss wants to see you... the big boss," it was reported."
The new chairman of a long-awaited Government inquiry into historic child sex abuse was facing calls to resign last night after The Mail on Sunday discovered her astonishing links to Leon Brittan – a key figure embroiled in the scandal.
The new chairman of a long-awaited Government inquiry into historic child sex abuse was facing calls to resign last night after The Mail on Sunday discovered her astonishing links to Leon Brittan – a key figure embroiled in the scandal.
The new chairman of a long-awaited Government inquiry into historic child sex abuse was facing calls to resign last night after The Mail on Sunday discovered her astonishing links to Leon Brittan – a key figure embroiled in the scandal.
It appears the people at the Home Office are unable to use google.
More to the point, if you're tasked with finding some experienced establishment Great And The Good type of figure not currently busy with something else, it must be quite hard to find somebody not in some way connected one of the many people potentially implicated or suspected of being implicated in one of the various child sex abuse scandals or their various cover-ups and meta-cover-ups.
The new chairman of a long-awaited Government inquiry into historic child sex abuse was facing calls to resign last night after The Mail on Sunday discovered her astonishing links to Leon Brittan – a key figure embroiled in the scandal.
It appears the people at the Home Office are unable to use google.
More to the point, if you're tasked with finding some experienced establishment Great And The Good type of figure not currently busy with something else, it must be quite hard to find somebody not in some way connected one of the many people potentially implicated or suspected of being implicated in one of the various child sex abuse scandals or their various cover-ups and meta-cover-ups.
A senior judge from Australia or Canada would fit the bill.
Another steamy day in fragrant harbour and a few thoughts before I head out into the heat.
Scotland's secession represents a massive collective failure of the soon to be ex-UK's ruling elite. They have taken their position for granted, they have refused to engage with the great unwashed, they have consistently put their respective party interests above those of the country as a whole, they have favoured rancour over consensus, cheap headlines over considered debate. Can anyone blame the Scots for wanting out? Like the English, the Welsh and the Northern Irish the Scots are sick to the back teeth of a system that clearly does not work and they are going to do something about it because they have been given the chance. What I regret about it all is that they have been sold a false prospectus by people whose main aim is to create a frontier, not to make a better country. And soon enough the Scots will realise this. But by then it will be too late. A few weeks of joyous celebrations will become years of bitter recrimination as the austerity-max that the SNP, or whoever takes over from them when that party collapses, will be forced to follow by either the rUK in a currency union or the international markets in the event of sterlingisation. Some will say that the Scots will have got what they deserved. I disagree. It will be the fault of self-serving nationalists and the Westminster elite who created the environment in which they could thrive. With grown-ups in charge things would have been very different.
If unstable countries like Ukraine, Syria and Iraq can be independent, then why can't Scotland be independent?
They can be. The reality might be slightly at odds with what they have been promised though.
I think Sunil will appreciate the words of the Federation president at the Khitomer conference: "just because we can do a thing, does not mean we must do that thing".
Possibly
BTW I was on a J1 when I was at Colorado three years ago. But I was only there for three months.
The new chairman of a long-awaited Government inquiry into historic child sex abuse was facing calls to resign last night after The Mail on Sunday discovered her astonishing links to Leon Brittan – a key figure embroiled in the scandal.
Dair London puts in more than it takes out compared to Scotland, but of course Scotland will have to get its own currency as England and Wales do not want currency union, or it could join the euro
Every penny London spends on its infrastructure is subsidised by the rest of the UK. Almost all London infrastructure is classed as "UK spending" by the government. Most of that is from the Scottish subsidy, Scotland would be at least £600bn better off since 1980 had it been independent and not pauing for English debt and London subsidy. that's the bottom line and why Scotland needs independence to choose its own destiny based on its enormous wealth.
Have you included RBS and BoS in your satirical fairy tale?
Bank bailouts, if chosen by the government (as opposed to jailing crooked bankers as Iceland did - higher GDP than the UK today BTW) Those bailouts are paid by the governments where the economic activity is, 50% of "British" banks were bailed out by the US government.
Scotland's financial services are almost entirely low risk investment funds. Pensions and Current Accounts, the entirety of the bank bail out was London based activity and if it happened today, would be paid 100% by the Westminster government.
You accept there is no future for large banks headquartered in Scotland?
Banks can happily base themselves in Scotland and pay Scottish taxes and if it all goes pear shaped other countries like the UK and US will pay the cost of that. That's how banking works - the activity demands the bailout. The 2008 crisis would have cost Scotland virtually nothng and bankrupt England pretty much the same as it paid.
I wonder why the Irish and the Greeks didn't cotton on to that !
Dair London puts in more than it takes out compared to Scotland, but of course Scotland will have to get its own currency as England and Wales do not want currency union, or it could join the euro
Every penny London spends on its infrastructure is subsidised by the rest of the UK. Almost all London infrastructure is classed as "UK spending" by the government. Most of that is from the Scottish subsidy, Scotland would be at least £600bn better off since 1980 had it been independent and not pauing for English debt and London subsidy. that's the bottom line and why Scotland needs independence to choose its own destiny based on its enormous wealth.
Have you included RBS and BoS in your satirical fairy tale?
Bank bailouts, if chosen by the government (as opposed to jailing crooked bankers as Iceland did - higher GDP than the UK today BTW) Those bailouts are paid by the governments where the economic activity is, 50% of "British" banks were bailed out by the US government.
Scotland's financial services are almost entirely low risk investment funds. Pensions and Current Accounts, the entirety of the bank bail out was London based activity and if it happened today, would be paid 100% by the Westminster government.
You accept there is no future for large banks headquartered in Scotland?
Banks can happily base themselves in Scotland and pay Scottish taxes and if it all goes pear shaped other countries like the UK and US will pay the cost of that. That's how banking works - the activity demands the bailout. The 2008 crisis would have cost Scotland virtually nothng and bankrupt England pretty much the same as it paid.
Tell that to your celtic cousins in Eire. You're an idiot and an ingrate.
Ireland's bank bailout was paid for by UK taxpayers. They didn't even demand it normalise the corporation tax rate so Microsoft, Google, Apple et al are still based in Ireland paying lower taxes while the UK bails out the Irish Economy.
Have you seen an Irish payslip after the bailout ? Do you know what an USC is ?
I thinks odds are quite strong that No still leads as of today - Panelbase poll has No lead higher than YouGov Yes lead and chance that YouGov could be an outlier.
But bigger issue is that this poll gives Yes huge momentum.
Reporting is key. I am sure BBC has a firm rule that it can never ever lead a news bulletin with the result of an opinion poll. Has that rule been broken tonight?
I am grateful to UKIP for clarifying this vital issue and warning us of the dangers. Until now, I had thought that the referendum was about the provision of milk in primary schools.
Incidentally anyone know how the make-up of the House Of Lords would be affected by the departure of all the Scottish Lords?
It's an interesting point, appointments are for life. I think de jure there is no such thing as a "scottish" lord. Certainly not with a life peerage, some hereditary peerages predate 1707 but I doubt there are many of these in the current lords.
Given they don't represent a constituency that can identified as Scottish, trying to remove them would be a legal minefield.
Whilst accepting the crown can strip a peerage from anyone, at any time, but this a drastic step. If someone wanted to stay, I can't think any way to remove them.
@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."
Is that true?
No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.
There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?
I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.
In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.
In fact if the example of Ireland is followed, nothing will happen. Just no more life peers will be appointed. We'll just wait for the existing ones to die.
The last Irish peer didn't leave the House of Lords till 1961, a full 39 years after the establishment of the republic.
Incidentally anyone know how the make-up of the House Of Lords would be affected by the departure of all the Scottish Lords?
It's an interesting point, appointments are for life. I think de jure there is no such thing as a "scottish" lord. Certainly not with a life peerage, some hereditary peerages predate 1707 but I doubt there are many of these in the current lords.
Given they don't represent a constituency that can identified as Scottish, trying to remove them would be a legal minefield.
Whilst accepting the crown can strip a peerage from anyone, at any time, but this a drastic step. If someone wanted to stay, I can't think any way to remove them.
Oh no it can't, that would be the monarch dictating the constitution of parliament. Disgraced peers who also have knighthoods can lose the knighthood, cos that's just a bauble, but keep the peerage.
Dair London puts in more than it takes out compared to Scotland, but of course Scotland will have to get its own currency as England and Wales do not want currency union, or it could join the euro
Have you included RBS and BoS in your satirical fairy tale?
Bank bailouts, if chosen by the government (as opposed to jailing crooked bankers as Iceland did - higher GDP than the UK today BTW) Those bailouts are paid by the governments where the economic activity is, 50% of "British" banks were bailed out by the US government.
Scotland's financial services are almost entirely low risk investment funds. Pensions and Current Accounts, the entirety of the bank bail out was London based activity and if it happened today, would be paid 100% by the Westminster government.
Iceland happens to be outside the EU. What's your opinion of Scotland continuing to be part of the EU (no doubt on costlier terms than it currently enjoys), which has imposed the austerity (real austerity, not the bedroom bloody tax) you and your fellow nationalists so despise on countries like Greece?
There's a song I heard, that sums it up
I got this feeling on the summer day when you were gone. I crashed my car into the bridge. I watched, I let it burn. I threw your shit into a bag and pushed it down the stairs. I crashed my car into the bridge.
I don't care, I love it. I don't care.
Thanks for that -a simple 'could you avoid mentioning that, it rips the anus out of my entire argument' would suffice.
All the righteous fiery anger about the iniquitous nature of Westminster rule, with its bankers and bail outs hoovering up Scotland's money and oil, but you're more than happy to remain under the authority of a corrupt venal, anti democratic elite in which Scotland has next to no say, that enforces every evil you rail against on its citizens ten times more than the UK does.
Doesn't make sense really does it?
I posted it, because it doesn't matter. Polls are 50/50 but on the street people who have never voted are 75/25. Yes has already won.
The key phrase there is "people who have never voted".
What's that based on incidentally? Counting the number of YES posters? Or speaking to a self-selecting sample of people who are friendly to the cause?
Adam Boulton has done his column in the Sunday Times
it is headlined with
Cheer up, PM. At this rate you will all be over by Christmas
and signs off with
But this is Cameron’s watch and, as every Tory tells me, “we are the Conservative and Unionist party”. If Cameron loses Scotland, it won’t just be etched on his record: it will be his tombstone.
Nevermind Christmas. It could all be over in a fortnight! :^O
But Ed must do the same after failing to deliver his own voters. And it's not the first time, look at the 2011 Scottish Election which started all this off.
For one reason or another Scots seem to hate Ed Milliband and what he was doing in Scotland this week I have no idea because he just looked like a joke quite frankly.
I love Ed Miliband. The man is a total gift to the Yes campaign. And don't even get me started on Johann Lamont. I adore that women.
Nearly 100% of Tory voters are No. About 80% of Lib Dem voters are No. Nearly 100% of SNP and Green voters are Yes. But Miliband and Lamont have allowed up to 40% of the Labour vote to go to Yes. What on earth were they playing at?
It's a total Labour clusterf*ck. They f*cked the UK economically, now they're going to do so politically - and irrevocably.
Wasn't it you, Stuart, that told me that if Westminster governments had treated Scotland with less arrogance and more respect over the last 30 years, we might never have been in this position?
Think you said, 25-30% of Scots would always have backed independence, but to get to 50%+ now is an astonishing feat.
Yepp. That was me.
With a starting point 30 years ago the Union could easily have been saved, but far too many Unionists did the exact opposite of what they should be doing. And they still are.
If I was a consultant for No I could have helped you lot to resoundingly save the Union as recently as 2 years ago. But that ship has sailed. Now your very, very best result would be a narrow No, but you seem to have a wiful deathwish and are even doing your best to chuck that faint hope down the pan too.
The baffling thing is the SNP is promising the WWC Salmond's Scottish soviet socialist republic when what they will end up with is Thatcherism on steroids.
That's not baffling. It could well be totally wrong, but clearly no-one believes they will end up with that. Really it's just depressing if that is a) True and b) not believed.
What I meant is that it is baffling that so many people are falling for it. Salmond is a snake oil salesman and independence is his cure all.
Dair London puts in more than it takes out compared to Scotland, but of course Scotland will have to get its own currency as England and Wales do not want currency union, or it could join the euro
Every penny London spends on its infrastructure is subsidised by the rest of the UK. Almost all London infrastructure is classed as "UK spending" by the government. Most of that is from the Scottish subsidy, Scotland would be at least £600bn better off since 1980 had it been independent and not pauing for English debt and London subsidy. that's the bottom line and why Scotland needs independence to choose its own destiny based on its enormous wealth.
Have you included RBS and BoS in your satirical fairy tale?
Bank bailouts, if chosen by the government (as opposed to jailing crooked bankers as Iceland did - higher GDP than the UK today BTW) Those bailouts are paid by the governments where the economic activity is, 50% of "British" banks were bailed out by the US government.
Scotland's financial services are almost entirely low risk investment funds. Pensions and Current Accounts, the entirety of the bank bail out was London based activity and if it happened today, would be paid 100% by the Westminster government.
Iceland happens to be outside the EU. What's your opinion of Scotland continuing to be part of the EU (no doubt on costlier terms than it currently enjoys), which has imposed the austerity (real austerity, not the bedroom bloody tax) you and your fellow nationalists so despise on countries like Greece?
There's a song I heard, that sums it up
I got this feeling on the summer day when you were gone. I crashed my car into the bridge. I watched, I let it burn. I threw your shit into a bag and pushed it down the stairs. I crashed my car into the bridge.
I don't care, I love it. I don't care.
Actually that's fair enough. I'm sure Ireland in 1918 didn't give a monkey's about the economics and I have no issue with Scots taking the same view now. However the whole thrust of the Yes campaign has been "there's no downside. Vote for us and it's free this that and the other, no Trident, no bedroom tax and no anything else you don't like,and of course " Westminster" ( The English ) will share the currency. That vision is bollocks, I'm afraid.
You are talking bollocks. They have always said it will not be easy but it can be done and done better than Westminster.
Dair London puts in more than it takes out compared to Scotland, but of course Scotland will have to get its own currency as England and Wales do not want currency union, or it could join the euro
Every penny London spends on its infrastructure is subsidised by the rest of the UK. Almost all London infrastructure is classed as "UK spending" by the government. Most of that is from the Scottish subsidy, Scotland would be at least £600bn better off since 1980 had it been independent and not pauing for English debt and London subsidy. that's the bottom line and why Scotland needs independence to choose its own destiny based on its enormous wealth.
Have you included RBS and BoS in your satirical fairy tale?
Bank bailouts, if chosen by the government (as opposed to jailing crooked bankers as Iceland did - higher GDP than the UK today BTW) Those bailouts are paid by the governments where the economic activity is, 50% of "British" banks were bailed out by the US government.
Scotland's financial services are almost entirely low risk investment funds. Pensions and Current Accounts, the entirety of the bank bail out was London based activity and if it happened today, would be paid 100% by the Westminster government.
You accept there is no future for large banks headquartered in Scotland?
Banks can happily base themselves in Scotland and pay Scottish taxes and if it all goes pear shaped other countries like the UK and US will pay the cost of that. That's how banking works - the activity demands the bailout. The 2008 crisis would have cost Scotland virtually nothng and bankrupt England pretty much the same as it paid.
Tell that to your celtic cousins in Eire. You're an idiot and an ingrate.
Ireland's bank bailout was paid for by UK taxpayers. They didn't even demand it normalise the corporation tax rate so Microsoft, Google, Apple et al are still based in Ireland paying lower taxes while the UK bails out the Irish Economy.
You should really stop when people just think you're an idiot. I think that's probably as far ahead as you are likely to get. If you're a 'no' troll trying to make out that 'yes' voters are clueless you should know that few wavering voters are reading this.
Almost exclusively dumb unionist numpties, who have just had a wake up call.
I posted it, because it doesn't matter. Polls are 50/50 but on the street people who have never voted are 75/25. Yes has already won.
Be that as it may, I was questioning you about your own views -the electoral likelihood of a yes vote is immaterial. You claim to be seeking independence, when what you are really doing is imposing EU supremacy on worse terms than Scotland currently enjoys. Can you explain?
Even if in the EU , we are currently not given any EU benefits , they are kept by Westminster, we just get shafted. Westminster shaft us locally. So we will be significantly better off regardless.
If you want a complex immigration/visa structure, have a look at Thailand. And AFAIK it’s almost impossible for an “outsider” to become a citizen and get the right to vote. When they have elections again.
@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."
Is that true?
No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.
There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?
I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.
In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.
Rig a TV debate. Rig a poll. Rig a referendum or election. Where've I seen that before? Nick Clegg's TV debate deification in 2010. Many commentators thought Cameron let him win/in. The Conservatives had a clear majority a year before the election, then 'leading' politicians like Ken Clarke started talking of a 'hung parliament', which at the time made no sense. First polling moved dramatically away from the Conservatives, then the TV debates and whack the desired result of the manipulators occurred.
Now it's the Scottish Independence vote following the same pattern. So much for British democracy. We are manipulated to bring the required results, which can be obtained by hook or by crook. No doubt a referendum on the EU can be made to bring the required result using similar methods.
EW/Sc During the period between the referendum and Scottish independence there would be a general election in the United Kingdom. If Scotland does vote yes, do you think Scotland should/should not elect MPs to Westminster.. Should: 21 / 49 Should not: 62 / 39
This last minute deal being rushed out by the no campaign is ridiculous, and probably counter-productive.
I wonder too if there aren't a great many Scots who don't want devo-max or independence, and are being completely ignored in this.
Seems to be an almost religious fervour about this campaign, which is a sure sign that it's wrong-headed.
I agree. Rushing out some half baked devo max proposal that has not dealt with the other implications for rUK would be foolish indeed.
Better to hold the nerve, keep calm and carry on. There is only one poll with Yes ahead, the rest have No ahead. Scots may well be less febrile when in booth with ballot paper in hand.
But if they vote Yes, then so be it. A Yes vote has a number of advantages for England.
Peter Kellner writing in You Gov news lists amongst factors that favour NO the "Quebec precedent "In 1995 Quebec voted on whether to secede from Canada.With amonth to go NO held a steady lead.then the mood changed.The final polls pointed to 53%:47% voting yes.But on the day some voters pulled back from the brink and Quebec voted to remain part of Canada by 50.6% to 49.4%."
This last minute deal being rushed out by the no campaign is ridiculous, and probably counter-productive.
I wonder too if there aren't a great many Scots who don't want devo-max or independence, and are being completely ignored in this.
Seems to be an almost religious fervour about this campaign, which is a sure sign that it's wrong-headed.
I agree. Rushing out some half baked devo max proposal that has not dealt with the other implications for rUK would be foolish indeed.
Better to hold the nerve, keep calm and carry on. There is only one poll with Yes ahead, the rest have No ahead. Scots may well be less febrile when in booth with ballot paper in hand.
But if they vote Yes, then so be it. A Yes vote has a number of advantages for England.
Quite. Not a lot of courage under fire on display....
This last minute deal being rushed out by the no campaign is ridiculous, and probably counter-productive.
I wonder too if there aren't a great many Scots who don't want devo-max or independence, and are being completely ignored in this.
Seems to be an almost religious fervour about this campaign, which is a sure sign that it's wrong-headed.
I also agree about the devolution proposals. It smacks of panic.
What the BT campaign needs to do is what I have been saying on here for months. We need to be proudly British and positive about what we have as a part of this country rather than constantly banging on about what we will lose if we leave.
If you look at the BT supporters the most solid block by far are the Tories. They are more solidly no than 2011 SNP supporters are for yes. Why? Because we love our country and do not need the economic arguments to sway us.
The key demographic is and has always been the Labour vote. But by so successfully demonising the Tories for so long SLAB have won a lot of cheap seats and potentially done themselves fatal damage. As I was saying on here a couple of months ago Scottish Labour supporters look at UK Labour and wonder what is in it for them. Darling and the others have always struggled to explain this because they cannot defend a UK with a Tory government in a credible way. It goes against everything they have been saying their entire political careers.
BT must go positive and be proudly British. I also think that Cameron should involve himself too. Apparent cool indifference from south of the border does not make our job any easier. But silly last minute gimmicks are not the solution.
" You are talking bollocks. They have always said it will not be easy but it can be done and done better than Westminste"r.
Malcolm
The way you conduct yourself on here is to the detriment of the YES campaign. Your replies are quite often abusive, when you could provide a counter argument. Surprised the moderators on PB have not acted yet.
As I think David pointed out a few weeks ago there is reason to be skeptical about it - meaning the referendum result is genuinely uncertain.
TSE pointed out last night that YouGov got the Euros most right. But the Euros are about as far away from the referendum as it is possible to be.
Turnout in the Euros were 34% in Scotland. We are expecting c. 80% in the referendum.
Now the pollsters have spent their time perfecting polls for general elections with turnout about 60%. A lot of that is done by past vote weighting to ensure politically balanced samples.
Most of the pollsters are weighting by 2011 Holyrood numbers. But given turnout in those elections was 50% we would expect about 38% of referendum voters (30/80) to not have voted in those elections.
But in the latest YouGov poll 75% claimed to have voted Con/LD/Lab/SNP in 2011. There must have been some saying they voted for others too. So only about 20% of the sample are non-2011 voters - they are underweighted. There are obviously problems of false recall to contend with too.
We really need more polls. Unlike with GE polling where we know what methods work, we have no prior experience to form judgements here. Therefore having more companies with different techniques weighing in is I think vitally needed.
I would expect this shock yes poll to lead to more being commissioned in the run up. Hopefully some of these by phone.
A final methodological point. I find it interesting that YouGov are able to do UK wide polls over a 24 hour period, but most of the Scottish polls are done over 3-4 days. This suggests to me that their panel is therefore, as you would expect, a lot smaller. The smaller the panel, the more likely it is to be unrepresentative of the population.
Peter Kellner writing in You Gov news lists amongst factors that favour NO the "Quebec precedent "In 1995 Quebec voted on whether to secede from Canada.With amonth to go NO held a steady lead.then the mood changed.The final polls pointed to 53%:47% voting yes.But on the day some voters pulled back from the brink and Quebec voted to remain part of Canada by 50.6% to 49.4%."
Will Scotland follow the same pattern?
What attitude did the Canadian Govt take? Was there a last minute “No" offer?
This last minute deal being rushed out by the no campaign is ridiculous, and probably counter-productive.
I wonder too if there aren't a great many Scots who don't want devo-max or independence, and are being completely ignored in this.
Seems to be an almost religious fervour about this campaign, which is a sure sign that it's wrong-headed.
I also agree about the devolution proposals. It smacks of panic.
What the BT campaign needs to do is what I have been saying on here for months. We need to be proudly British and positive about what we have as a part of this country rather than constantly banging on about what we will lose if we leave.
If you look at the BT supporters the most solid block by far are the Tories. They are more solidly no than 2011 SNP supporters are for yes. Why? Because we love our country and do not need the economic arguments to sway us.
The key demographic is and has always been the Labour vote. But by so successfully demonising the Tories for so long SLAB have won a lot of cheap seats and potentially done themselves fatal damage. As I was saying on here a couple of months ago Scottish Labour supporters look at UK Labour and wonder what is in it for them. Darling and the others have always struggled to explain this because they cannot defend a UK with a Tory government in a credible way. It goes against everything they have been saying their entire political careers.
BT must go positive and be proudly British. I also think that Cameron should involve himself too. Apparent cool indifference from south of the border does not make our job any easier. But silly last minute gimmicks are not the solution.
Quite apart from being tactically good, BT going positive about keeping the blue in the Union Jack is important to counter the emotion of the Yes campaigners.
Turnout is going to be interesting. Scots are more keen on voting in Westminster elections than Holyrood (2010 GE 65% vs 2011 Holyrood 50%) so it seems that the more reluctant parts of the electorate are less fervent SNPers.
" You are talking bollocks. They have always said it will not be easy but it can be done and done better than Westminste"r.
Malcolm
The way you conduct yourself on here is to the detriment of the YES campaign. Your replies are quite often abusive, when you could provide a counter argument.
This last minute deal being rushed out by the no campaign is ridiculous, and probably counter-productive.
I wonder too if there aren't a great many Scots who don't want devo-max or independence, and are being completely ignored in this.
Seems to be an almost religious fervour about this campaign, which is a sure sign that it's wrong-headed.
I also agree about the devolution proposals. It smacks of panic.
What the BT campaign needs to do is what I have been saying on here for months. We need to be proudly British and positive about what we have as a part of this country rather than constantly banging on about what we will lose if we leave.
If you look at the BT supporters the most solid block by far are the Tories. They are more solidly no than 2011 SNP supporters are for yes. Why? Because we love our country and do not need the economic arguments to sway us.
The key demographic is and has always been the Labour vote. But by so successfully demonising the Tories for so long SLAB have won a lot of cheap seats and potentially done themselves fatal damage. As I was saying on here a couple of months ago Scottish Labour supporters look at UK Labour and wonder what is in it for them. Darling and the others have always struggled to explain this because they cannot defend a UK with a Tory government in a credible way. It goes against everything they have been saying their entire political careers.
BT must go positive and be proudly British. I also think that Cameron should involve himself too. Apparent cool indifference from south of the border does not make our job any easier. But silly last minute gimmicks are not the solution.
David, they have failed because of what you suggest , most people believe they are Scottish and that it is time we made our own decisions, not be dictated to by our British Betters. You like other Tories just do not get it, if only you could have been just a little bit Scottish a swell as British you may not have blown a 30% lead. Too late the people have been energised and it is unstoppable now. You might even see the result 60/40 the way things are going but it will be to YES.
As I think David pointed out a few weeks ago there is reason to be skeptical about it - meaning the referendum result is genuinely uncertain.
TSE pointed out last night that YouGov got the Euros most right. But the Euros are about as far away from the referendum as it is possible to be.
Turnout in the Euros were 34% in Scotland. We are expecting c. 80% in the referendum.
Now the pollsters have spent their time perfecting polls for general elections with turnout about 60%. A lot of that is done by past vote weighting to ensure politically balanced samples.
Most of the pollsters are weighting by 2011 Holyrood numbers. But given turnout in those elections was 50% we would expect about 38% of referendum voters (30/80) to not have voted in those elections.
But in the latest YouGov poll 75% claimed to have voted Con/LD/Lab/SNP in 2011. There must have been some saying they voted for others too. So only about 20% of the sample are non-2011 voters - they are underweighted. There are obviously problems of false recall to contend with too.
We really need more polls. Unlike with GE polling where we know what methods work, we have no prior experience to form judgements here. Therefore having more companies with different techniques weighing in is I think vitally needed.
I would expect this shock yes poll to lead to more being commissioned in the run up. Hopefully some of these by phone.
A final methodological point. I find it interesting that YouGov are able to do UK wide polls over a 24 hour period, but most of the Scottish polls are done over 3-4 days. This suggests to me that their panel is therefore, as you would expect, a lot smaller. The smaller the panel, the more likely it is to be unrepresentative of the population.
I take your point about methodological issues in polling. So what is the advantage of more polling at this stage? Rectifying the methodological problems will take time, and in the meantime bad information is worse than no information.
How does any further poll help anyone decide which way to vote on the 18th?
This last minute deal being rushed out by the no campaign is ridiculous, and probably counter-productive.
I wonder too if there aren't a great many Scots who don't want devo-max or independence, and are being completely ignored in this.
Seems to be an almost religious fervour about this campaign, which is a sure sign that it's wrong-headed.
I also agree about the devolution proposals. It smacks of panic.
What the BT campaign needs to do is what I have been saying on here for months. We need to be proudly British and positive about what we have as a part of this country rather than constantly banging on about what we will lose if we leave.
If you look at the BT supporters the most solid block by far are the Tories. They are more solidly no than 2011 SNP supporters are for yes. Why? Because we love our country and do not need the economic arguments to sway us.
The key demographic is and has always been the Labour vote. But by so successfully demonising the Tories for so long SLAB have won a lot of cheap seats and potentially done themselves fatal damage. As I was saying on here a couple of months ago Scottish Labour supporters look at UK Labour and wonder what is in it for them. Darling and the others have always struggled to explain this because they cannot defend a UK with a Tory government in a credible way. It goes against everything they have been saying their entire political careers.
BT must go positive and be proudly British. I also think that Cameron should involve himself too. Apparent cool indifference from south of the border does not make our job any easier. But silly last minute gimmicks are not the solution.
Quite apart from being tactically good, BT going positive about keeping the blue in the Union Jack is important to counter the emotion of the Yes campaigners.
Turnout is going to be interesting. Scots are more keen on voting in Westminster elections than Holyrood (2010 GE 65% vs 2011 Holyrood 50%) so it seems that the more reluctant parts of the electorate are less fervent SNPers.
It is going to be an interesting couple of weeks.
Still not clicking , just like David does not understand either. It is NOT about the SNP, BT are fixated on that and are paying dearly for their myopic position.
" You are talking bollocks. They have always said it will not be easy but it can be done and done better than Westminste"r.
Malcolm
The way you conduct yourself on here is to the detriment of the YES campaign. Your replies are quite often abusive, when you could provide a counter argument.
A little more involvement from Cameron makes sense to me too.
Darling hasn't really played his hand very well. It's obviously much harder to argue for the status quo, but even so it's been pretty weak stuff.
You have to be joking. Milliband was told to F*** off by his own supporters and now wants border guards. You seriously think Cameron having another private meeting with the CBI will go down any better.
This last minute deal being rushed out by the no campaign is ridiculous, and probably counter-productive.
I wonder too if there aren't a great many Scots who don't want devo-max or independence, and are being completely ignored in this.
Seems to be an almost religious fervour about this campaign, which is a sure sign that it's wrong-headed.
I also agree about the devolution proposals. It smacks of panic.
What the BT campaign needs to do is what I have been saying on here for months. We need to be proudly British and positive about what we have as a part of this country rather than constantly banging on about what we will lose if we leave.
If you look at the BT supporters the most solid block by far are the Tories. They are more solidly no than 2011 SNP supporters are for yes. Why? Because we love our country and do not need the economic arguments to sway us.
BT must go positive and be proudly British. I also think that Cameron should involve himself too. Apparent cool indifference from south of the border does not make our job any easier. But silly last minute gimmicks are not the solution.
Quite apart from being tactically good, BT going positive about keeping the blue in the Union Jack is important to counter the emotion of the Yes campaigners.
Turnout is going to be interesting. Scots are more keen on voting in Westminster elections than Holyrood (2010 GE 65% vs 2011 Holyrood 50%) so it seems that the more reluctant parts of the electorate are less fervent SNPers.
It is going to be an interesting couple of weeks.
Still not clicking , just like David does not understand either. It is NOT about the SNP, BT are fixated on that and are paying dearly for their myopic position.
When discussing the electoral outcomes party affiliation is all we know. The difference in outcomes between the turnout in the GE and Holyrood elections was in part lack of turnout by Labour voters. The other part is that at least 15% of the 50% who did not vote in Holyrood, but did in the GE Identify politically with UK politics rather than Scottish politics. What the remaining 35% think is a real unknown, but probably not interested in either.
High turnout means unknown waters but not inevitably ones that favour Yes.
@kieran – “I would expect this shock yes poll to lead to more being commissioned in the run up. Hopefully some of these by phone.”
OGH: - “The next week should see a plethora of surveys from five or six firms. The ones I am looking out for are TNS-BMRB, expected on Wednesday, and Ipsos-MORI because their fieldwork is not carried out online. Attention is being paid to how polling samples are weighted to ensure balance.”
'Extra' polling over the next week are already planned in.
Comments
My daughter's school recently changed the name of its teams to the Night Hawks. It used to be the Saints. They held a competition to choose the name - Nigel the Night Hawk.
She still gets mad when I do the "'allo 'allo, this is Night hawk. Over"
Looking at Panelbase and Yougov I believe we will only find the true state of the polls in the last 3 days before the referendum.
Off topic.
I believe that yesterday I mentioned that Fox News has refered Farage as "Britain's next prime minister" and I questioned whether Murdoch is going to support him.
Today we get this:
HuffPost UK @HuffPostUK · 7h
Is Murdoch preparing to back #ukip? http://huff.to/WujWNR
"During an advertisement break at the Cavuto show, the host reportedly turned to Farage and said: "Sir, the boss wants to see you... the big boss," it was reported."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2746370/Revealed-New-boss-investigation-VIP-child-abuse-claims-linked-Leon-Brittan-The-Mail-On-Sunday-exposes-family-friendship-SECOND-inquiry-chief-ex-MP-accused-abuse-file-cover-up.html
It appears the people at the Home Office are unable to use google.
Scotland's secession represents a massive collective failure of the soon to be ex-UK's ruling elite. They have taken their position for granted, they have refused to engage with the great unwashed, they have consistently put their respective party interests above those of the country as a whole, they have favoured rancour over consensus, cheap headlines over considered debate. Can anyone blame the Scots for wanting out? Like the English, the Welsh and the Northern Irish the Scots are sick to the back teeth of a system that clearly does not work and they are going to do something about it because they have been given the chance. What I regret about it all is that they have been sold a false prospectus by people whose main aim is to create a frontier, not to make a better country. And soon enough the Scots will realise this. But by then it will be too late. A few weeks of joyous celebrations will become years of bitter recrimination as the austerity-max that the SNP, or whoever takes over from them when that party collapses, will be forced to follow by either the rUK in a currency union or the international markets in the event of sterlingisation. Some will say that the Scots will have got what they deserved. I disagree. It will be the fault of self-serving nationalists and the Westminster elite who created the environment in which they could thrive. With grown-ups in charge things would have been very different.
BTW I was on a J1 when I was at Colorado three years ago. But I was only there for three months.
http://www.revenue.ie/en/tax/usc/
But bigger issue is that this poll gives Yes huge momentum.
Reporting is key. I am sure BBC has a firm rule that it can never ever lead a news bulletin with the result of an opinion poll. Has that rule been broken tonight?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw1-3J2IQAAnefE.jpg:large
I am grateful to UKIP for clarifying this vital issue and warning us of the dangers. Until now, I had thought that the referendum was about the provision of milk in primary schools.
Given they don't represent a constituency that can identified as Scottish, trying to remove them would be a legal minefield.
Whilst accepting the crown can strip a peerage from anyone, at any time, but this a drastic step. If someone wanted to stay, I can't think any way to remove them.
Is that true?
No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.
There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?
I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.
In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.
The last Irish peer didn't leave the House of Lords till 1961, a full 39 years after the establishment of the republic.
More likely they'd just ignore topic though and try and persuade people to stay away
What's that based on incidentally? Counting the number of YES posters? Or speaking to a self-selecting sample of people who are friendly to the cause?
by Peter Kellner
E&W= 35/36/7/16/4
In the Scotland sub-sample(usual caveats) 45% support Scottish independence and 50% oppose it.
38% think independent Scotland would be financially better off , whilst 47% think worse off.
Of the GB VI, most think Scottish MPs should no longer attend Westminster if YES wins and should not elect MPs in 2015.
Now it's the Scottish Independence vote following the same pattern. So much for British democracy. We are manipulated to bring the required results, which can be obtained by hook or by crook. No doubt a referendum on the EU can be made to bring the required result using similar methods.
I wonder too if there aren't a great many Scots who don't want devo-max or independence, and are being completely ignored in this.
Seems to be an almost religious fervour about this campaign, which is a sure sign that it's wrong-headed.
EW/Sc
During the period between the referendum and Scottish independence there would be a general election in the United Kingdom. If Scotland does vote yes, do you think Scotland should/should not elect MPs to Westminster..
Should: 21 / 49
Should not: 62 / 39
Scots mildly in favour, rUK 3:1 against....
Better to hold the nerve, keep calm and carry on. There is only one poll with Yes ahead, the rest have No ahead. Scots may well be less febrile when in booth with ballot paper in hand.
But if they vote Yes, then so be it. A Yes vote has a number of advantages for England.
"In 1995 Quebec voted on whether to secede from Canada.With amonth to go NO held a steady lead.then the mood changed.The final polls pointed to 53%:47% voting yes.But on the day some voters pulled back from the brink and Quebec voted to remain part of Canada by 50.6% to 49.4%."
Will Scotland follow the same pattern?
Should Govt mount military operation to rescue ISIS hostages:
Y: 63 / 62
N: 14 / 13
I also agree about the devolution proposals. It smacks of panic.
What the BT campaign needs to do is what I have been saying on here for months. We need to be proudly British and positive about what we have as a part of this country rather than constantly banging on about what we will lose if we leave.
If you look at the BT supporters the most solid block by far are the Tories. They are more solidly no than 2011 SNP supporters are for yes. Why? Because we love our country and do not need the economic arguments to sway us.
The key demographic is and has always been the Labour vote. But by so successfully demonising the Tories for so long SLAB have won a lot of cheap seats and potentially done themselves fatal damage. As I was saying on here a couple of months ago Scottish Labour supporters look at UK Labour and wonder what is in it for them. Darling and the others have always struggled to explain this because they cannot defend a UK with a Tory government in a credible way. It goes against everything they have been saying their entire political careers.
BT must go positive and be proudly British. I also think that Cameron should involve himself too. Apparent cool indifference from south of the border does not make our job any easier. But silly last minute gimmicks are not the solution.
Malcolm
The way you conduct yourself on here is to the detriment of the YES campaign. Your replies are quite often abusive, when you could provide a counter argument. Surprised the moderators on PB have not acted yet.
As I think David pointed out a few weeks ago there is reason to be skeptical about it - meaning the referendum result is genuinely uncertain.
TSE pointed out last night that YouGov got the Euros most right. But the Euros are about as far away from the referendum as it is possible to be.
Turnout in the Euros were 34% in Scotland. We are expecting c. 80% in the referendum.
Now the pollsters have spent their time perfecting polls for general elections with turnout about 60%. A lot of that is done by past vote weighting to ensure politically balanced samples.
Most of the pollsters are weighting by 2011 Holyrood numbers. But given turnout in those elections was 50% we would expect about 38% of referendum voters (30/80) to not have voted in those elections.
But in the latest YouGov poll 75% claimed to have voted Con/LD/Lab/SNP in 2011. There must have been some saying they voted for others too. So only about 20% of the sample are non-2011 voters - they are underweighted. There are obviously problems of false recall to contend with too.
We really need more polls. Unlike with GE polling where we know what methods work, we have no prior experience to form judgements here. Therefore having more companies with different techniques weighing in is I think vitally needed.
I would expect this shock yes poll to lead to more being commissioned in the run up. Hopefully some of these by phone.
A final methodological point. I find it interesting that YouGov are able to do UK wide polls over a 24 hour period, but most of the Scottish polls are done over 3-4 days. This suggests to me that their panel is therefore, as you would expect, a lot smaller. The smaller the panel, the more likely it is to be unrepresentative of the population.
Turnout is going to be interesting. Scots are more keen on voting in Westminster elections than Holyrood (2010 GE 65% vs 2011 Holyrood 50%) so it seems that the more reluctant parts of the electorate are less fervent SNPers.
It is going to be an interesting couple of weeks.
The way you conduct yourself on here is to the detriment of the YES campaign. Your replies are quite often abusive, when you could provide a counter argument.
It indicates a limited intellect.
A little more involvement from Cameron makes sense to me too.
Darling hasn't really played his hand very well. It's obviously much harder to argue for the status quo, but even so it's been pretty weak stuff.
You might even see the result 60/40 the way things are going but it will be to YES.
How does any further poll help anyone decide which way to vote on the 18th?
BT are fixated on that and are paying dearly for their myopic position.
LOL
Darling is and always has been a LOSER.
High turnout means unknown waters but not inevitably ones that favour Yes.
OGH: - “The next week should see a plethora of surveys from five or six firms. The ones I am looking out for are TNS-BMRB, expected on Wednesday, and Ipsos-MORI because their fieldwork is not carried out online. Attention is being paid to how polling samples are weighted to ensure balance.”
'Extra' polling over the next week are already planned in.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/yougov-polling-blog/2014/sep/07/scottish-independence-opinion-polls-yougov-over-60s-vote-is-vital
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SvdecwnYJ4
(A spoof on Lady Gaga)