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Global Britain – politicalbetting.com
Global Britain – politicalbetting.com
“Pecunia non olet.” “Money has no smell”. Whatever its truth in the Rome of Emperor Vespasian, current events should have disabused the British political and financial establishment of the truth of this. Money smells. And how. And its stench lingers. As Britain is now finding out.
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Astonishing video footage from the front line in NY Times blog:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/26/world/ukraine-russia-war#video-captures-fierce-fighting-near-kyiv
Rob Lee
@RALee85
A company worth of Russian tanks and other vehicles reportedly in Chernihiv Oblast. What is notable is how old these tanks are, including T-72A, T-72AV, T-72B obr 1985 and 1989, MT-LB, and BMP-2. Likely an Eastern Military District unit.
@RALee85
·
54m
One potential mistake in Russia's plan was to use its Eastern Military District units to play a key role in the advance on Kyiv, the most important objective. Russia's Eastern Military District is the lowest priority for equipment and manning.
Trump might have stood on the sidelines cheering Vlad on and waving a little Russian flag. Or he might have pointed all his missiles at Moscow. Could Vlad really be sure which would happen?
He is at least sure Biden sees a nuclear war as on the whole negative.
OTOH, Biden, at the very least, makes it a lot easier for the west to act in harmony.
Like.
But that is a potential, whereas the current unacceptable situation is a certainty. In such a situation doing something for the sake of doing something, for once, becomes a reasonable option.
Anyway I must abed. Despite the collapse of the world I am due in Richmond riverside for springtime walks and drinks, tomorrow
Goodnight all
No way could Vlad rely on which channel he alighted upon and at what hour.
It’s around two orders of magnitude cheaper for journalists to defend a baseless libel case in (for example) France than it is here.
The event was to commemorate the 1979 revolution.
The ambassador had been in post for less than a year.
https://youtu.be/nRGiErEyvBQ
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1497734035895947265?s=20&t=8-LL_L9XuBxOObviowM3rQ
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1497732567054749696
"Riho Terras
@RihoTerras
THREAD 1/7 Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days."
https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038
"I wish I could share more,but for now I can say it’s pretty obvious to many that something is off with #Putin
He has always been a killer,but his problem now is different & significant
It would be a mistake to assume this Putin would react the same way he would have 5 years ago"
As part of Senate Intel cmtte he gets all the juicy gossip. The only way this all makes sense is if Putin is aware that his time left to achieve his goals is limited. Notably Fiona Hill has also been speculating about Putin having health issues, and taking steroids to mitigate inflammation.
If you think that's poorly timed you're the one with the problem.
Could he nonsense.
Nevertheless, seems like the next 24-36 hours are key.
More tanks would only make sense if the strategy was to try and deplete the NLAWs/Javelins faster than they arrive.
There might be positioning for a takeover though. Is there a market on the next Russian leader?
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1497615552206229506?s=20&t=GxTN5HkehOS3cpXEv1gcDQ
For the bet to deliver requires Ukraine to be in a position to be represented at the competition - which is of course far from certain at present. But if they do manage to turn up with an entry, I expect there to be overwhelming support and tactical voting in their favour. I've also had a quick listen to their planned entry - and it sounds OK.
There's all sorts of information warfare going on, but one can be sure that it's all not going as well as expected for Putin so far.
Long grass might be involved.
More direct funding to influence views on Russia probably went into traditionally more receptive states such as Germany, Italy and Greece, where views of Russia are almost overnight turning to ashes, now.
Good night, and thanks for the header.
Meanwhile our war stocks of replacement vehicles, weapons and ammunition have been stripped bare by an ill-judged imitation of industry’s “just-in-time” policies – not for efficiency but to save money. We sent only 2,000 anti-tank missiles to Ukraine and I suspect we don’t have many more to spare.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/26/age-conventional-warfare-back-britain-isnt-ready/ (£££)
Backers of Ben Wallace to replace the Prime Minister might want to reconsider their bets. Or not, since although Wallace signed the most recent defence review, he is now likely leading the calls for more resources.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/26/troop-cuts-must-reversed-counter-threat-russia-warn-ministers/ (£££)
ISW"
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-9
However, I can't see the actual poll?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10556181/HALF-Boris-Johnsons-Cabinet-lose-seats-general-election-held-poll-reveals.html
Mistakes in defence procurement pale into insignificance compared to the disastrous decision of Miliband to vote against intervention in Syria. We are where we are now, in part, because of that decision. Oh, and how some people on here cheered it on! They got one over the government! Hurrah!
At what point does Putin continue his descent into madness and decide that this constitutes world war? Serious question.
Letting Assad get away with using chemical weapons showed the west as being utterly weak and divided, not willing to stand up to our principles. It created a power vacuum that Putin felt he could step into, gave Russia vital military skills, led to Salisbury, and has directly led to the invasion of Ukraine
We were faced with two evils. We chose the one that went directly against our values, and Putin noticed that. He also noticed that we would back down.
You are so categoric it's scary. In my experience people who see the world in such stark binary polarity are usually wrong. But they're certain they're right, which makes it pretty hard to debate meaningfully with them.
'The best lack all conviction, whilst the worst are full of passionate intensity.'
Assad used chemical weapons against his own population. We let him get away with it, and emboldened Russia (and others) in the process.
Either we have values or we do not. Syria showed we have fuck-all values.
https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/1497581887941918720
Will Putin be the second time in as many years the Republican Party bet on a loser?
https://twitter.com/DanRather/status/1497764978564034567
Why is it tenuous?
If you go back to 2014, 2016 2018 etc, I believe you will find posts from me predicting this sort of mess, or similar.
As I said below: I was right. This gives me no joy. But it does give me a healthy disdain for those who still try to defend what was a disastrous party-political decision by Miliband.
I guess you have nothing to actually counter my argument, and therefore are resorting to this sort of comment.
(If I was to respond in kind, I'd ask what the weather's like in Russia today, comrade!)
There's not really any relationship between that and the current situation. Putin had already conclusively turned his face against the West five years before, and nothing was done ; Syria was just confirmation and continuation of that.
The West played no role when he intervened in Georgia, and later South Ossetia, again five years before, which also coincided with the start of his attacks on civil society. That's when and where the deterrence aspect has some merit.
No, Syria was a real turning point - although one of several. An evil had been done. Western governments were proclaiming it was an evil, but then, thanks to Miliband, we did nothing about that evil. This had two significant effects:
1) It told Russia that when push came to shove, we were divided and weak - and they could divide and weaken us more.
2) It allowed Russia to step into the vacuum, and believe they could win.
3) The west was unwilling to do anything military against evil.
Salisbury was a direct result of it. So is this.
Oddly, this still holds together even for the nutjobs who believe that that Assad did not use chemical weapons against his own population.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/
Another tyrant who needs nipping in the bud before it's too late.
Great header by the way. I have woken up still enraged by Johnson's photo opportunity last night. Others here were claiming he was messaging Putin, Johnson's idle inertia-riddled compatriot leaders in the West and showing solidarity with the brave people of Ukraine. I saw it as electioneering. Conservative MPs, replace this cynical clown with someone more appropriate.
As always in the fog of war, verifying information is difficult, especially on social media but also on TV. Old footage around.
Have been mostly watching Ukranian TV, with someone who understands it. TV stations have occasionally moved from studio to the car park of their building as air raid sirens sound. Many people are sleeping in basements and metro stations. Clear reports of Russian casualties, also lots of kids surrendering and logistics nightmares such as tanks with no fuel. This isn’t the elite army, more like conscripts with old equipment who weren’t expecting to be told to shoot at their cousins. Worry is that the good equipment and logistics is being held back - or maybe the generals have been less than honest with Putin as to what they have serviceable. Many missiles on the first day aimed at military airfields, but no further strikes. Ukranian forces still in the air but no photos yet of two Russian transport aircraft allegedly shot down.
Russian invaders very surprised that the Ukranians have NATO kit and know how to use it. Ukrainians themselves taking out bridges, making life as difficult as possible for the invaders to enter the capital. Lots of rivers in Ukraine, limited numbers of crossing points. Enemy special forces or Chechen types arrested marking targets. Keep that NATO equipment coming, it’s making a massive difference.
What we see as virtue signalling - football match gestures, Simpsons cartoons etc are all being highlighted, mean a lot to Ukranian morale. Actions against Russia - Eurovision, Haas cars, sanctions etc, showing Ukranians that the world is behind them in standing up to the bear. Zelensky and Klitchko have done a great job both domestically and internationally, and lady MP with AK-47 doing interviews in English. Queues of Ukranians for arms and to donate blood. Somehow, power and internet are still up.
Russian media, on the other hand, appears confused and inconsistent. Some stations still trying to run with official narrative of minor fighting during peacekeeping efforts in Donbass. They struggle to censor social media, so word is getting through to them about the true situation.
Swift sanctions finally agreed, Russia (& rich Russians abroad) about to find out how much the West now doesn’t like them.
A very difficult time for Mrs Sandpit. She has always really thought of herself as Russian, but now clearly sees herself as Ukranian. Lots of difficult conversations with friends and family in both countries and locally in the sandpit in the past few days. Thankfully, everyone remains safe.
On house prices, printing money and ultra low interest rates have done far more to hurt the prospects of young workers in London and the South East.
Britain is helping Ukraine with intelligence and military equipment. This is to its credit.
Very good of you to mention. We’re far from perfect, but I’d suggest Germany has a lot more to be ashamed of in respect to Ukraine.
What I am pleased about is the fact that we have Johnson and the Conservatives in power rather than Corbyn and the labour party. I'm also pleased that Corbyn and his followers have been consigned to the political wilderness, and that their views on international affairs are not being humoured, or given any airtime even, at all.
Though not sure about the final paragraphs on Ukranian refugees. If we should be more open to them, then why should we not be as open to those fleeing Yemen, for similar reasons? Asylum policy has been made as hostile as possible in recent years to those fleeing all sorts of warzones.
Con 32% -13%
It's an MRP study:
Lab 352 seats (+149)
Con 201 seats (-164)
But the point remains: we have values. You do not use chemical weapons. He did. We did nothing.
We told evil people in the world that we would not stand up for our values.
And then Salisbury.
Thoughts and best wishes to Mrs S.
Although I doubt it.
Also, we were perfectly capable of performing airstrikes against ISIS as well - as we did in Iraq. We could not do so in Syria because of the Russian presence. It was not a one-only approach.
The fact remains: we had values. We did not stand up for those values.
Even now, with those values being pressed much more, western countries are finding it hard to respond.
What happened next ? Hundreds of thousands of people died after the Western action, and the country disintegrated into chaos. What did the West achieve by what it proclaimed to be the same values-based action ?
Why on earth didn't more western policymakers even understand that that was ten times more likely to happen again, given that chaos from the previous failed intervention was already contributing to the collapse of its neighbour ?
This thinking was just not at all in touch with reality.
For the avoidance of doubt, I don't advocate war with the Russians but I do advocate total isolation. We should have no trade, no commerce, no cultural links and no diplomatic ties (save for those at the United Nations) at all, and that state of affairs should continue for at least as long as Looney Tunes sits upon his throne of weapons at the Kremlin, and quite possibly for a lengthy spell after that. The whole of the rest of Europe should say, collectively, that we are done with Russian threats, and we want nothing more to do with Russia until the threats cease and we see concrete evidence that it is willing and able to clean its act up.
BTW, if you talk about the Iraq war, it's important to say whether you're referring to the first or second.
You seem to be saying that we should never stand up for our values. Is that correct?
Ukraine does feel like a case of good v evil, but certain types of intervention in it could still amount to a bad judgement on our part. In backing the Ukrainian government the way they have I think the west, particularly Britain, have judged this right. The longer the Ukrainian opposition to Putin proves itself as credible , the more support is justified.
The worst case for us would have been to have visibly backed the Ukranian government, only for it to collapse in the face of a Russian attack, in the way that the afghan government did when faced with the Taliban.
However, when military action was forestalled the internal Democratic opposition was quickly eliminated by Assad. They had no outside supplies of soldiers, or weapons, or money. Isis was much more difficult to get rid of, because they had that foreign backing. As a result, they rapidly became the only serious opposition group.
So you could argue that failing to act led to both Assad *and* Isis. Two for one disaster.
China so far not helping Russia evade Western sanctions-U.S. official
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497792402987356160
China is Russia's largest trading partner for both imports and exports. If President Xi decides that he would rather let the Russians suffer than risk setting off a trade war with the West, then the Russian economy is toast.