On topic, I think the UK should focus on providing safe refuges for the women and children who are escaping Ukraine to well equipped and safe border zones inside the neighbouring EU states. We should be generous in building and funding these. Priorities for asylum in the UK should include the most vulnerable, those with family/personal links, and, crucially, the political and military leadership of the Ukrainian Government, in exile, should that become necessary.
This should be aimed as a temporary measure pending a restoration of independent Ukrainian Government.
All other efforts should be focused on helping them defeat the invasion, because none of them really want to leave - they want to go back home.
Ah yes, here it starts, ".... inside the neighbouring EU states."
What the bellicose are really frightened of is refugees in their pretty towns and villages.
Of course, people want to leave Ukraine. It is going to be a bloody & murderous place for some time, whatever happens.
If I was a young person in Ukraine, I'd want to get the feck out of there and have a decent life somewhere else.
War means refugees.
It is the inevitable excuse making for why they *always* have to go somewhere else. The Government will try it too, but it doesn't wash in this instance.
Asylum, as we all know, is a complex and contentious issue, and Britain doesn't have infinite room to accommodate all the people who might want to come here. However, the UK is also part of a large alliance taking concerted action to help Ukraine, and part of that is going to have to be giving shelter to refugees who, unless the Ukrainians somehow pull off a stellar victory against huge odds, are going to be exiled from home for years.
Simply dumping several million people in the laps of the governments of the border states under such circumstances isn't acceptable.
But, I also don't think we should encourage permanent resettlement (which is what that quickly becomes) that depopulates Ukraine and allows it to be colonised and pacified by Russia.
The fight for Ukraine's future is in Ukraine.
Ukraine is an impossible state, as presently constituted (its boundaries were drawn by a madman, Stalin).
My (wild) guess is that endpoint of all this is an Eastern/Southern Ukraine de facto absorbed into Russia proper and a Northern/Western bit that is a rump independent Ukrainian state.
I don't think Putin cares about the former bits of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
This will be accompanied by ethnic cleansing, or at least very substantial population movements.
If you don't like which bit of the country you ended up in, you will move or be killed. All this happened in the West after WW2, it is just delayed in the East.
It was Kruschev who altered the boundaries by transferring Crimea in 1954, as part of his machinations to become boss.
It was formally ceded by Khruschev, but the idea was Stalin's.
The boundaries of the Ukrainian SSR changed quite a bit over its 72 year history.
As I believe the Kenyan ambassador to the UN remarked a few days back, virtually all of the borders in Africa were drawn by colonial powers, frequently cutting across linguistic and kinship boundaries that Africans, if left to their own devices, would've shown respect for. If they all started trying to steal parcels of land from one another on that basis, the whole continent would be consumed by warfare. If Russia is allowed to keep getting away with redrawing its boundaries based on historical grievances of this kind then it opens the door to total chaos.
Besides which, AIUI every region of Ukraine - including Crimea, albeit by a narrower margin than most of the others - voted in favour of Ukrainian independence in 1991.
Yes, strange that a plebiscite is the way to settle an issue, and yet the votes in 1991 can be ignored if doing so further's Russian interests.
As I recollect, John Major was in power in 1991. He is not still in power because there have been elections. The world is not frozen in 1991.
Yet, you don't think a boundary can ever be revisited.
If there is an overwhelming majority in every part of the Ukraine for the present boundaries, surely a plebsicite will confirm that ?
A powerful argument that the Ukrainian state can use to retain Donetsk and Luhansk, no? .
Okay this is pretty interesting, Chinese state affiliated media is posting a video of Chinese students in Kyiv asking for peace.
It’s not outright pro Ukrainian, but it definitely does not paint the Russians in the best light...
Again, you have to remember that this was most likely approved by a Chinese state backed editorial board. There is an implicit backing of the message here by the Chinese.
China surely realises that Putin is achieving the opposite of what China wants: a revived, united west, rearming and prepared to fight. Whether it is for Latvia - or Taiwan
Yes, the “they’re not going to invade - don’t be stupid” crew are less likely to be listened to next time, and all their “pre-invasion hot takes” will be there for all to see - however many of them they delete. The internet never forgets.
To be fair it was a reasonable argument to take. No one sensible would be so stupid as to invade Ukraine. Militarily it's one hell of a gamble.
The flaw in that assessment is that Putin has gone doolally, as evidenced by his crazed national broadcast. When you're dealing with a madman it's really difficult to know what's coming.
I am rather concerned, albeit from my quiet little quarter, that Putin will view the increasing militarisation of Ukrainians by western countries as an escalation tantamount to war. Other countries like Belarus are getting sucked in.
There's a real danger now that this is not going to be contained. We're not far away from WWIII.
I hate to say it, but a speedy Putin victory is probably the safest option. That or the removal of Putin by an instantaneous coup, which would obviously be preferable.
Interesting rumours on French speaking Twitter (leaked by Macron’s team?) that Putin is seriously ill
Any details of Putin's disease or is this just English-language speculation about dementia, Parkinson's and steroids being translated into French?
Anyone watching CNN right now? German Chancellor announcing significant increased investment in armed forces. Doesn't sound like everyone in Parliament is happy...
It's almost as if they've got a completely new government. With different policies. Who'd have imagined that?
You don't think the discontent is likely to be from within the factions of the new government? It's more likely to be coming from the Greens than the right, no?
I joined a huge crowd in Freedom Square, where President Karis made a speech which was clear and precise. The fear in Tallinn that has been building for months has finally gone. The courage of the Ukrainian fighters has inspired the whole of the Baltic.
So many countries, from Finland to Germany that felt that the Baltic was crying wolf about Russia have now publically admitted their mistakes, and so now Estonia feels that the alliance is stronger and that we are safer.
Things might move slowly or quickly, but the direction of travel is clear. This is Putin´s war, and he must pay the ultimate price. Nevertheless the war is far from over and even though the flow of support to Ukraine is strong, we also know that Putin is a ruthless and now an increasingly desperate man. It may be that some very dark days lie ahead, but now we have the hope of victory, the hope that the Ukrainians have given us.
As an aside it is crystal clear that the five eyes have been incredibly successful at understanding the strategic and the tactical position of Russia. British and American intelligence has been spot on and this has been a significant part of the way that other NATO allies learned the scale of the plot that Putin was launching and of maintaining the cohesion of the alliance. I have little doubt that when the history is written, the quality of Western intelligence will be seen as the decisive advantage. Although it is the Ukrainians that are paying the price, their courage and determination is inspirational. If and when victory is acheived then a full scale Marshall plan should be the least we can do for the country that has stood alone against the tyrant. The gratitude that Estonia feels is certainly very profound.
Best wishes and thanks for the update.
I think that Finland has been completely stunned by what has happened, and more attention should be given to this.
Arguably they are now in a more vulnerable position than the Baltic states - with a massive (1300km) land border, strategic positioning, and no NATO protection. They are going along with the rest of the EU and the former policy of assertive neutrality is falling apart. Will they be the next Ukraine?
I believe this morning they joined the airspace ban on Russian aircraft?
Yes. very alarming news. I assumed they would take on the role of the neutral airbridge to and from Russia.
Air bridge to where? Nobody West of Finland wants anything to do with Russia, either.
I joined a huge crowd in Freedom Square, where President Karis made a speech which was clear and precise. The fear in Tallinn that has been building for months has finally gone. The courage of the Ukrainian fighters has inspired the whole of the Baltic.
So many countries, from Finland to Germany that felt that the Baltic was crying wolf about Russia have now publically admitted their mistakes, and so now Estonia feels that the alliance is stronger and that we are safer.
Things might move slowly or quickly, but the direction of travel is clear. This is Putin´s war, and he must pay the ultimate price. Nevertheless the war is far from over and even though the flow of support to Ukraine is strong, we also know that Putin is a ruthless and now an increasingly desperate man. It may be that some very dark days lie ahead, but now we have the hope of victory, the hope that the Ukrainians have given us.
As an aside it is crystal clear that the five eyes have been incredibly successful at understanding the strategic and the tactical position of Russia. British and American intelligence has been spot on and this has been a significant part of the way that other NATO allies learned the scale of the plot that Putin was launching and of maintaining the cohesion of the alliance. I have little doubt that when the history is written, the quality of Western intelligence will be seen as the decisive advantage. Although it is the Ukrainians that are paying the price, their courage and determination is inspirational. If and when victory is acheived then a full scale Marshall plan should be the least we can do for the country that has stood alone against the tyrant. The gratitude that Estonia feels is certainly very profound.
Best wishes and thanks for the update.
I think that Finland has been completely stunned by what has happened, and more attention should be given to this.
Arguably they are now in a more vulnerable position than the Baltic states - with a massive (1300km) land border, strategic positioning, and no NATO protection. They are going along with the rest of the EU and the former policy of assertive neutrality is falling apart. Will they be the next Ukraine?
Finland is a NATO country in all but name. The former PM indicated recently that its armed forces were more aligned with NATO than many countries inside NATO.
The border is a worry for Russia, not Finland. The Russians will have to patrol it much more actively than ever before. It is a long border.
Off topic: Just to confirm (and I am so disappointed) I won't be at the PB do because I am still lying in a hospital bed with 2 broken legs.
So pissed off. Broke on Wednesday. X-ray shows 4 breaks. Op scheduled for next day but want CT first which didn't happen. Now scheduled for next week so was being sent home Having seen scan now won't let me leave.
Bored rigid.
What have you been up to? Nonetheless, get well soon
Nothing. In my life I have taken part in some pretty dangerous sports. In my old age l wield power tools while up ladders and use an axe on a regular basis. I have never had a serious injury. It appears that walking in a straight line is far more dangerous.
Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.
With a glance to history, not all will be pleased. Though in the short term, France's arms factories might look forward to some overtime.
Some of the heads of people who simultaneously think Germans are war mongering Nazis and backsliding conchies might explode, so that's a positive.
I have always guarded against optimism in relation to anything to do with Putin, because he always seems to win. This winning will ultimately come to an end at some point, but it is too early to make that call in relation to the current situation in Ukraine.
The war's only been going for two fucking days. There are many, many dark days ahead when those that have the resolve to do so must play their part by witlessly speculating on made up shit they've seen on Twitter.
It'll all be over by (Orthodox) Christmas.
I so want Ukraine to win. I have to keep telling myself that I'm viewing the news with that hope in mind, skewing my perceptions - and through a media that generally wants Ukraine to win as well.
I'd feel much better about saying how the war was going if we knew what Russia's strategy was at the beginning. It's perfectly possible that it is all going well to some plan. It's also possible that they've hit large problems and are having to change strategy.
Any plan that the Russians had went out of the window on day one as is the case in most wars. Nobody knows what the fuck is going on as is also the case in most wars. Least of all those blowing the shit out each other on the front line.
A bayonet is a weapon with a worker at both ends, as Father Lenin said.
A fine quotation. The best commentary I have read so far. There is something uniquely ugly at this time in history seeing a bunch of young people on both sides disgorging each other as proxy for leaders who wish to fulfill their ambitions.
It's even uglier reading commentators from the sidelines cheering their sides on while taking no active part. This is 2022. If there aren't other ways of resolving this then we should be living in caves
Hang on a minute. In the case of Ukraine, what evil 'ambition' does Zelenskyy have aside from keeping his country free?
Don't equate Ukraine and Russia in this.
I can't see a lot of difference between a young Russian conscript in a tank being shot to pieces or another young Russian/Ukrainian conscript being shot to pieces. Neither are making decisions and neither can do anything about the situation they find themselves in.
What happened to the Gandhi method? See what the Russians can do with 50,000,000 citizens engaging in civil disobedience with the rest of the world giving them every support other than military
Whilst I dont go fully with what Roger is saying , it is getting tedious on here listening to many glorifying killing and posting (sometimes fakes) reports from twitter about it. Also the armchair generals who based on nothing are talking as if the collective PB was in charge of the Russian operation it would be over by now . All points to a secret love of war sadly which may be a human condition more prevalent in politicos . We even have had somebody this morning calling post WW2 UK and US troops pussies for not loving bayoneting people.
I wish PB was in charge of the Russian war operation, for the very good reason it would never have started if we were.
If you look at the Kharkiv local council seat to the west of the river you can clear see that there is more support… we should target them in the first instance and redraw the boundaries
If PB was running Ukraine, they would have been nuclear armed for a start, if I had anything to do with it.
"Put not your trust in Princes"
I seem to recall you suggesting that a well trained and skilful Boys AT rifle operator could take out a Panther. Pretty sure I’m not going to put my trust in General Malms either.
AIUI that's why the Panzerkampfwagen III and IV had skirt armour, and even the Panther was a bit marginal as regards the thinner lower armour where it was exposed above the suspension - hence the skirts over that area, to disturb the flight of the Soviet equivalents of the Boys. But if they were properly supported by infantry, one wouldn't have much chance of working onme's way around to the rear for a clear side on or rear shot.
I’ve been in the Midlands this weekend and I am currently at Meadowhall in Sheffield. Its interesting how mask usage seems to be less and less common the more north you go
Meadowhall isn’t the midlands it’s definitely part of the People’s Republic of Yorkshire
If you want something todo before heading home the Sheffield Steelers are at home today so there is ice hockey at 4pm if you want some fst action and seemingly random violence. £8 a ticket so you can’t complain about the price
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
Anyone watching CNN right now? German Chancellor announcing significant increased investment in armed forces. Doesn't sound like everyone in Parliament is happy...
It's almost as if they've got a completely new government. With different policies. Who'd have imagined that?
You don't think the discontent is likely to be from within the factions of the new government? It's more likely to be coming from the Greens than the right, no?
I wouldn't know. What I do know is that the German election was a major geopolitical shift. It would have been even without Ukraine. It isn't just the CDU out on their ear. It was two parties voted for predominantly by the elderly, being replaced by a coalition in which 2 of the 3 parties are voted for predominantly by the young. It was a generational change in world view.
Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.
With a glance to history, not all will be pleased. Though in the short term, France's arms factories might look forward to some overtime.
I thought i might have heard him say that they were going to acquire an aircraft carrier, but i quite possibly completely misheard that.
For those with whiplash, some of the changes to German foreign & security policy in the last week:
- de facto death of Nord Stream 2 - substantial arms deliveries to Ukraine, directly and via 3rd countries - €100bn investment in armed forces & commitment to 2% NATO goal
(1/2)
- pledge to build two LNG terminals and build up strategic energy reserves - commitment to ejection of some Russian banks from SWIFT - probable end of last remaining SPD illusions on Russia, including public disavowals of Schröder
Okay this is pretty interesting, Chinese state affiliated media is posting a video of Chinese students in Kyiv asking for peace.
It’s not outright pro Ukrainian, but it definitely does not paint the Russians in the best light...
Again, you have to remember that this was most likely approved by a Chinese state backed editorial board. There is an implicit backing of the message here by the Chinese.
China surely realises that Putin is achieving the opposite of what China wants: a revived, united west, rearming and prepared to fight. Whether it is for Latvia - or Taiwan
Are we rearming?
I'd hope it would be obvious, but when it comes to the budget statement later in the spring, with the political unpopularity of the NI increase, massive interest payments on our debt, the gaping maw of what the NHS requires simply to return to the level of dysfunction it was capable of before Covid, and very many other demands on our finances - is Chancellor Sunak going to set our defence budget on a pathway to funding of 3% of GDP or more?
I don't see it happening. I think there needs to be a big political push to make it happen.
According to Liam Fox on QT yesterday it would appear that few NATO countries pay up in full their subscriptions. Apparently Germany are amongst the worst offenders.
Bringing arrears up to date would be a good start.
Not a subscription I think, an expectation (set by trump?) as to how much of gdp gets spent on defence
There is absolutely nothing in the NATO treaty that says how much members have to spend on defence. There was a "commitment" to 2% at the 2014 summit by the defence ministers but nothing was binding.
There are also direct payments from members to fund NATO admin, etc. through the PRBB. This is the "subscription". Nobody has ever defaulted on this and Germany is by far the biggest European contributor paying half as much again as the UK and equalling the US contribution.
In personal news, I've just had my hair cut for the first time in two and a half years. Down to Grade 3 all over, thanks to Mrs J, scissors and a shaver.
I've gone from looking like a Neanderthal to looking like a football hooligan.
Anyone watching CNN right now? German Chancellor announcing significant increased investment in armed forces. Doesn't sound like everyone in Parliament is happy...
It's almost as if they've got a completely new government. With different policies. Who'd have imagined that?
You don't think the discontent is likely to be from within the factions of the new government? It's more likely to be coming from the Greens than the right, no?
That would be to mistake the German Green party for Britain's bourgeois watermelon fringe movement. The two things are very different beasts.
As the party will continue to view the use of military force as ultima ratio, a Green Foreign Minister would emphasise human security, conflict prevention and management before anything else. What might relieve non-German observers is that the German Greens tend to avoid the term ‘defence policy’ and label everything related to it as ‘peace and security policy’, even if it contains hard security matters. For example, the Greens state in their election program that they want to better equip the Bundeswehr, see NATO as indispensable (despite their criticism of what they believe is an arbitrary 2% goal), and support increased defence cooperation in the EU.
The German Green co-leaders have also occupied the hawkish wing of coalition policy towards Putin. It's the SPD that were, up until the last few days, more wedded to co-operation with his regime.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
yes and its why I am nervous of this Dads Army gung ho lets all chip in to kill russians attitude. Its admirable and understandable and justified -is it wise given the practicalities of the world?
Anyone watching CNN right now? German Chancellor announcing significant increased investment in armed forces. Doesn't sound like everyone in Parliament is happy...
It's almost as if they've got a completely new government. With different policies. Who'd have imagined that?
You don't think the discontent is likely to be from within the factions of the new government? It's more likely to be coming from the Greens than the right, no?
I wouldn't know. What I do know is that the German election was a major geopolitical shift. It would have been even without Ukraine. It isn't just the CDU out on their ear. It was two parties voted for predominantly by the elderly, being replaced by a coalition in which 2 of the 3 parties are voted for predominantly by the young. It was a generational change in world view.
Of course. But not sure that leads to being in favour of German rearmament, does it? OK so there's two conflicts things - older generation has more instinctive understanding of reasons for German neutrality and maybe younger generation more likely to say "we are a big country, why shouldn't we have an army to match?". But then, younger generation are usually portrayed as being more anti war (and not from a position of "peace through strength"). But maybe this is different in Germany.
I joined a huge crowd in Freedom Square, where President Karis made a speech which was clear and precise. The fear in Tallinn that has been building for months has finally gone. The courage of the Ukrainian fighters has inspired the whole of the Baltic.
So many countries, from Finland to Germany that felt that the Baltic was crying wolf about Russia have now publically admitted their mistakes, and so now Estonia feels that the alliance is stronger and that we are safer.
Things might move slowly or quickly, but the direction of travel is clear. This is Putin´s war, and he must pay the ultimate price. Nevertheless the war is far from over and even though the flow of support to Ukraine is strong, we also know that Putin is a ruthless and now an increasingly desperate man. It may be that some very dark days lie ahead, but now we have the hope of victory, the hope that the Ukrainians have given us.
As an aside it is crystal clear that the five eyes have been incredibly successful at understanding the strategic and the tactical position of Russia. British and American intelligence has been spot on and this has been a significant part of the way that other NATO allies learned the scale of the plot that Putin was launching and of maintaining the cohesion of the alliance. I have little doubt that when the history is written, the quality of Western intelligence will be seen as the decisive advantage. Although it is the Ukrainians that are paying the price, their courage and determination is inspirational. If and when victory is acheived then a full scale Marshall plan should be the least we can do for the country that has stood alone against the tyrant. The gratitude that Estonia feels is certainly very profound.
Best wishes and thanks for the update.
I think that Finland has been completely stunned by what has happened, and more attention should be given to this.
Arguably they are now in a more vulnerable position than the Baltic states - with a massive (1300km) land border, strategic positioning, and no NATO protection. They are going along with the rest of the EU and the former policy of assertive neutrality is falling apart. Will they be the next Ukraine?
I believe this morning they joined the airspace ban on Russian aircraft?
Yes. very alarming news. I assumed they would take on the role of the neutral airbridge to and from Russia.
Air bridge to where? Nobody West of Finland wants anything to do with Russia, either.
Russians who want to get to Europe, and visa versa. It looks like direct air traffic between Russia and Europe will become impossible in the future unless someone can think up a workaround (a third country operator doing direct flights?) without connecting via Asia, a long and expensive route.
Also, Finnair are fucked. They can't fly anywhere to the east without overflying Russia without a massive expensive detour. That's most of their business model ruined, connecting flights from Europe to Asia, overflying Russia. They may as well mothball most of their long range fleet.
.... Also, if I am right, then the massively expanded Helsinki airport and the new suburbs around it are largely pointless. The economic consequences of all these split second geopolitical decisions are absolutely enormous and difficult to comprehend.
Off topic: Just to confirm (and I am so disappointed) I won't be at the PB do because I am still lying in a hospital bed with 2 broken legs.
So pissed off. Broke on Wednesday. X-ray shows 4 breaks. Op scheduled for next day but want CT first which didn't happen. Now scheduled for next week so was being sent home Having seen scan now won't let me leave.
Bored rigid.
What have you been up to? Nonetheless, get well soon
Nothing. In my life I have taken part in some pretty dangerous sports. In my old age l wield power tools while up ladders and use an axe on a regular basis. I have never had a serious injury. It appears that walking in a straight line is far more dangerous.
Hopefully they will check your calcium levels. In women, simple falls resulting in breaks are often a sign of osteoporsis which is age/hormone related, but men can get it as well.
Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.
With a glance to history, not all will be pleased. Though in the short term, France's arms factories might look forward to some overtime.
I thought i might have heard him say that they were going to acquire an aircraft carrier, but i quite possibly completely misheard that.
That would be massive, even AH failed on that one. Perhaps we could sell them one of ours?
I'm also fairly certain Scholz wouldn't be making this statement if he thought his government could fall over it. Which means the Greens, as well as the notoriously parsimonious FDP are fully signed up. Well, leadership at least.
I joined a huge crowd in Freedom Square, where President Karis made a speech which was clear and precise. The fear in Tallinn that has been building for months has finally gone. The courage of the Ukrainian fighters has inspired the whole of the Baltic.
So many countries, from Finland to Germany that felt that the Baltic was crying wolf about Russia have now publically admitted their mistakes, and so now Estonia feels that the alliance is stronger and that we are safer.
Things might move slowly or quickly, but the direction of travel is clear. This is Putin´s war, and he must pay the ultimate price. Nevertheless the war is far from over and even though the flow of support to Ukraine is strong, we also know that Putin is a ruthless and now an increasingly desperate man. It may be that some very dark days lie ahead, but now we have the hope of victory, the hope that the Ukrainians have given us.
As an aside it is crystal clear that the five eyes have been incredibly successful at understanding the strategic and the tactical position of Russia. British and American intelligence has been spot on and this has been a significant part of the way that other NATO allies learned the scale of the plot that Putin was launching and of maintaining the cohesion of the alliance. I have little doubt that when the history is written, the quality of Western intelligence will be seen as the decisive advantage. Although it is the Ukrainians that are paying the price, their courage and determination is inspirational. If and when victory is acheived then a full scale Marshall plan should be the least we can do for the country that has stood alone against the tyrant. The gratitude that Estonia feels is certainly very profound.
Best wishes and thanks for the update.
I think that Finland has been completely stunned by what has happened, and more attention should be given to this.
Arguably they are now in a more vulnerable position than the Baltic states - with a massive (1300km) land border, strategic positioning, and no NATO protection. They are going along with the rest of the EU and the former policy of assertive neutrality is falling apart. Will they be the next Ukraine?
I believe this morning they joined the airspace ban on Russian aircraft?
Yes. very alarming news. I assumed they would take on the role of the neutral airbridge to and from Russia.
Air bridge to where? Nobody West of Finland wants anything to do with Russia, either.
Russians who want to get to Europe, and visa versa. It looks like direct air traffic between Russia and Europe will become impossible in the future unless someone can think up a workaround (a third country operator doing direct flights?) without connecting via Asia, a long and expensive route.
Also, Finnair are fucked. They can't fly anywhere to the east without going via Russia without a massive expensive detour. That's their whole business model gone, connecting flights from Europe to Asia, overflying Russia. They may as well mothball most of their long range fleet.
Countries aren't closing their aircraft to planes from Russia, are they? They are banning Russian aircraft. It is Russia which is cutting itself off by making the bans reciprocal.
After feeling some optimism yesterday, I’ve got a gut punch feeling that Vlad is playing rope a dope. Sending in conscripts as cannon fodder to degrade Ukraine’s professional army, and older tanks as magnets for the NLAWs. Saving up the crack troops and better equipment to mop up in Ukraine / for the fight with NATO.
Are we certain it's actually all out of date equipment and useless conscripts? If my "elite" forces, paratroops, and equipment were failing disastrously I'd probably put it about that this was just the garbage stuff and you should just wait til we send in the real thing.
One reads (albeit that this story was both published in the Mail and derives from a war zone, so considerable caution is advised,) that the Chechen general reportedly killed recently died along with a substantial column of his men - some of Russia's best and most ruthless troops - and that 56 tanks were destroyed in the process. We also spent much of yesterday evening speculating about how much of Russia's theoretically vast conventional strength may actually exist only on paper. ISRC it being suggested that something like 13,000 of the Kremlin's 16,000 tanks are in reserve formations, and it is questionable how many of those actually exist and what fraction of the extant units are operational.
We also have to remember that Russia's armed forces are vastly larger than the UK's, but its defence budget is actually smaller. A lot of this will be accounted for by the fact that the Russian army is full of conscripts serving for miserable pay and conditions, and Russia is self-sufficient in oil, but ultimately you have to ask how far their limited resources are actually stretching, and how much of Russia's strength is unsupported financially and, therefore, exists only on paper?
Anyway, Kyiv still stands this morning but it is reported that the Russians have invaded Kharkiv. The latter may be a valuable indicator: if they are also, hopefully, repulsed there, it would suggest that the invasion is in serious trouble.
That point also occurred to me. The death of the Chechen general indicates that this may not be an army of clumsy conscripts.
It also tends to show that the Russians are overrated, remember they could not handle Afghanistan , fine when you are just bombing people from the sky but different kettle of fish when they are up against determined people on the ground.
To be fair, Malc, the topography of Afghanistan is different to that of Ukraine. Running a guerrilla campaign is, I understand, easier in mountainous areas.
Agree but given many of them are conscripts being paid buttons and don't want to even be in the army , their strength is vastly overrated. They are not defending their homeland and will not want to be dodging bullets or molotov cocktails.
Rather like our National Service lads at the end of the 50's in Cyprus and Malaya. Although we 'sort of' won the second one.
For those with whiplash, some of the changes to German foreign & security policy in the last week:
- de facto death of Nord Stream 2 - substantial arms deliveries to Ukraine, directly and via 3rd countries - €100bn investment in armed forces & commitment to 2% NATO goal
(1/2)
- pledge to build two LNG terminals and build up strategic energy reserves - commitment to ejection of some Russian banks from SWIFT - probable end of last remaining SPD illusions on Russia, including public disavowals of Schröder
I'm also fairly certain Scholz wouldn't be making this statement if he thought his government could fall over it. Which means the Greens, as well as the notoriously parsimonious FDP are fully signed up. Well, leadership at least.
Okay this is pretty interesting, Chinese state affiliated media is posting a video of Chinese students in Kyiv asking for peace.
It’s not outright pro Ukrainian, but it definitely does not paint the Russians in the best light...
Again, you have to remember that this was most likely approved by a Chinese state backed editorial board. There is an implicit backing of the message here by the Chinese.
China surely realises that Putin is achieving the opposite of what China wants: a revived, united west, rearming and prepared to fight. Whether it is for Latvia - or Taiwan
Are we rearming?
I'd hope it would be obvious, but when it comes to the budget statement later in the spring, with the political unpopularity of the NI increase, massive interest payments on our debt, the gaping maw of what the NHS requires simply to return to the level of dysfunction it was capable of before Covid, and very many other demands on our finances - is Chancellor Sunak going to set our defence budget on a pathway to funding of 3% of GDP or more?
I don't see it happening. I think there needs to be a big political push to make it happen.
According to Liam Fox on QT yesterday it would appear that few NATO countries pay up in full their subscriptions. Apparently Germany are amongst the worst offenders.
Bringing arrears up to date would be a good start.
Not a subscription I think, an expectation (set by trump?) as to how much of gdp gets spent on defence
There is absolutely nothing in the NATO treaty that says how much members have to spend on defence. There was a "commitment" to 2% at the 2014 summit by the defence ministers but nothing was binding.
There are also direct payments from members to fund NATO admin, etc. through the PRBB. This is the "subscription". Nobody has ever defaulted on this and Germany is by far the biggest European contributor paying half as much again as the UK and equalling the US contribution.
iirc Britain's reaction to the 2% rule was to decrease spending and cook the books with notional pension costs.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
The idea you can only fight insurrections in mountainous terrain is bizarre. Tell it to the Viet Cong in the Mekong Delta. Or multiple jihadists in the flat deserts of Syria and Iraq
And, of course, possibly the best places to fight insurrections are big old cities. A single sniper in a tall building can halt an advance for a while. Ukraine has millions of armed men and women apparently willing to fight, street by street
"I've been training for three days. So I'm mostly like a beginner user, though moving forward to intermediate."
Ukrainian MP Kira Rudyk tells @jennykleeman she's armed herself with a Kalashnikov rifle.
Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:
Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
yes its a bit strange to think the ukrainians are suddenly so angelic they will not lie in the face of trying to keep free. Wishful thinking by some on here. I think even us Brits (that invented cricket!) told porkies about having the capability of a weapon to make the Channel an inferno to prevent a german invasion
I joined a huge crowd in Freedom Square, where President Karis made a speech which was clear and precise. The fear in Tallinn that has been building for months has finally gone. The courage of the Ukrainian fighters has inspired the whole of the Baltic.
So many countries, from Finland to Germany that felt that the Baltic was crying wolf about Russia have now publically admitted their mistakes, and so now Estonia feels that the alliance is stronger and that we are safer.
Things might move slowly or quickly, but the direction of travel is clear. This is Putin´s war, and he must pay the ultimate price. Nevertheless the war is far from over and even though the flow of support to Ukraine is strong, we also know that Putin is a ruthless and now an increasingly desperate man. It may be that some very dark days lie ahead, but now we have the hope of victory, the hope that the Ukrainians have given us.
As an aside it is crystal clear that the five eyes have been incredibly successful at understanding the strategic and the tactical position of Russia. British and American intelligence has been spot on and this has been a significant part of the way that other NATO allies learned the scale of the plot that Putin was launching and of maintaining the cohesion of the alliance. I have little doubt that when the history is written, the quality of Western intelligence will be seen as the decisive advantage. Although it is the Ukrainians that are paying the price, their courage and determination is inspirational. If and when victory is acheived then a full scale Marshall plan should be the least we can do for the country that has stood alone against the tyrant. The gratitude that Estonia feels is certainly very profound.
Best wishes and thanks for the update.
I think that Finland has been completely stunned by what has happened, and more attention should be given to this.
Arguably they are now in a more vulnerable position than the Baltic states - with a massive (1300km) land border, strategic positioning, and no NATO protection. They are going along with the rest of the EU and the former policy of assertive neutrality is falling apart. Will they be the next Ukraine?
I believe this morning they joined the airspace ban on Russian aircraft?
Yes. very alarming news. I assumed they would take on the role of the neutral airbridge to and from Russia.
Air bridge to where? Nobody West of Finland wants anything to do with Russia, either.
Russians who want to get to Europe, and visa versa. It looks like direct air traffic between Russia and Europe will become impossible in the future unless someone can think up a workaround (a third country operator doing direct flights?) without connecting via Asia, a long and expensive route.
Also, Finnair are fucked. They can't fly anywhere to the east without overflying Russia without a massive expensive detour. That's most of their business model ruined, connecting flights from Europe to Asia, overflying Russia. They may as well mothball most of their long range fleet.
.... Also, if I am right, then the massively expanded Helsinki airport and the new suburbs around it are largely pointless. The economic consequences of all these split second geopolitical decisions are absolutely enormous and difficult to comprehend.
All this really depends on how long this lasts. If it really does go badly for Russia, it can't be ruled out that Putin falls, can it? And quite quickly. Obviously such speculation is in the category of wishful thinking at the moment. And we don't really know whether the Ukrainian resistance is likely to be successful medium/long term. But if it is...?
If that did happen then the concerns about Russia become very different. Back to the end of the cold war and securing their nuclear arsenal etc.
Anyone watching CNN right now? German Chancellor announcing significant increased investment in armed forces. Doesn't sound like everyone in Parliament is happy...
It's almost as if they've got a completely new government. With different policies. Who'd have imagined that?
You don't think the discontent is likely to be from within the factions of the new government? It's more likely to be coming from the Greens than the right, no?
I wouldn't know. What I do know is that the German election was a major geopolitical shift. It would have been even without Ukraine. It isn't just the CDU out on their ear. It was two parties voted for predominantly by the elderly, being replaced by a coalition in which 2 of the 3 parties are voted for predominantly by the young. It was a generational change in world view.
Of course. But not sure that leads to being in favour of German rearmament, does it? OK so there's two conflicts things - older generation has more instinctive understanding of reasons for German neutrality and maybe younger generation more likely to say "we are a big country, why shouldn't we have an army to match?". But then, younger generation are usually portrayed as being more anti war (and not from a position of "peace through strength"). But maybe this is different in Germany.
Yeah. Fair enough. What I meant is the old shibboleths are no more. And you can't get much more anti-War than the administration just replaced.
I assume we have channels of communication open directly to Putin.
Ideally, someone would be able to convince him to take the shame and stop this evil act.
But that's probably impossible. So, what should we be saying to those under Putin who we can talk to? What carrot-and-stick measures could persuade them either to change Putin's mind, or get rid of him?
Russia's image in the rest of the world has been damaged for a generation. Not just by this act, but by many others over the last two decades.
Off topic: Just to confirm (and I am so disappointed) I won't be at the PB do because I am still lying in a hospital bed with 2 broken legs.
So pissed off. Broke on Wednesday. X-ray shows 4 breaks. Op scheduled for next day but want CT first which didn't happen. Now scheduled for next week so was being sent home Having seen scan now won't let me leave.
Bored rigid.
Very uncomfortable. iPad getting charged? Audible available? Best wishes.
I joined a huge crowd in Freedom Square, where President Karis made a speech which was clear and precise. The fear in Tallinn that has been building for months has finally gone. The courage of the Ukrainian fighters has inspired the whole of the Baltic.
So many countries, from Finland to Germany that felt that the Baltic was crying wolf about Russia have now publically admitted their mistakes, and so now Estonia feels that the alliance is stronger and that we are safer.
Things might move slowly or quickly, but the direction of travel is clear. This is Putin´s war, and he must pay the ultimate price. Nevertheless the war is far from over and even though the flow of support to Ukraine is strong, we also know that Putin is a ruthless and now an increasingly desperate man. It may be that some very dark days lie ahead, but now we have the hope of victory, the hope that the Ukrainians have given us.
As an aside it is crystal clear that the five eyes have been incredibly successful at understanding the strategic and the tactical position of Russia. British and American intelligence has been spot on and this has been a significant part of the way that other NATO allies learned the scale of the plot that Putin was launching and of maintaining the cohesion of the alliance. I have little doubt that when the history is written, the quality of Western intelligence will be seen as the decisive advantage. Although it is the Ukrainians that are paying the price, their courage and determination is inspirational. If and when victory is acheived then a full scale Marshall plan should be the least we can do for the country that has stood alone against the tyrant. The gratitude that Estonia feels is certainly very profound.
Best wishes and thanks for the update.
I think that Finland has been completely stunned by what has happened, and more attention should be given to this.
Arguably they are now in a more vulnerable position than the Baltic states - with a massive (1300km) land border, strategic positioning, and no NATO protection. They are going along with the rest of the EU and the former policy of assertive neutrality is falling apart. Will they be the next Ukraine?
I believe this morning they joined the airspace ban on Russian aircraft?
Yes. very alarming news. I assumed they would take on the role of the neutral airbridge to and from Russia.
Air bridge to where? Nobody West of Finland wants anything to do with Russia, either.
Russians who want to get to Europe, and visa versa. It looks like direct air traffic between Russia and Europe will become impossible in the future unless someone can think up a workaround (a third country operator doing direct flights?) without connecting via Asia, a long and expensive route.
Also, Finnair are fucked. They can't fly anywhere to the east without overflying Russia without a massive expensive detour. That's most of their business model ruined, connecting flights from Europe to Asia, overflying Russia. They may as well mothball most of their long range fleet.
.... Also, if I am right, then the massively expanded Helsinki airport and the new suburbs around it are largely pointless. The economic consequences of all these split second geopolitical decisions are absolutely enormous and difficult to comprehend.
I doubt that there will be that much demand for transit between Russia and the rest of Europe for the foreseeable future. Political dissidents seeking asylum can always get to Europe via third countries if able to escape in the first place.
Anyone watching CNN right now? German Chancellor announcing significant increased investment in armed forces. Doesn't sound like everyone in Parliament is happy...
It's almost as if they've got a completely new government. With different policies. Who'd have imagined that?
You don't think the discontent is likely to be from within the factions of the new government? It's more likely to be coming from the Greens than the right, no?
I wouldn't know. What I do know is that the German election was a major geopolitical shift. It would have been even without Ukraine. It isn't just the CDU out on their ear. It was two parties voted for predominantly by the elderly, being replaced by a coalition in which 2 of the 3 parties are voted for predominantly by the young. It was a generational change in world view.
Merkel has also been replaced as CDU leader by Merz who is far more hawkish on Putin than she was and has been pushing Scholz for tougher action.
The only parties in Germany now who do not want action against Putin are Linke and the AfD
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
It is interesting that drones are now used for war, distributing medicine in parts of Africa, and betting in-running on British racecourses. Yet the use cases we were promised for years, delivering hot food and Amazon parcels, are now done by bikes and vans respectively.
Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:
Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
yes its a bit strange to think the ukrainians are suddenly so angelic they will not lie in the face of trying to keep free. Wishful thinking by some on here. I think even us Brits (that invented cricket!) told porkies about having the capability of a weapon to make the Channel an inferno to prevent a german invasion
They weren't entirely untrue - Operation Lucid and all that. Thanks to Shell (and others) the UK had stupendous stock of petroleum, refined and unrefined. Which naturally lead to ideas of weaponising it. The most effective weapon was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_fougasse
Ukraine has submitted its application against Russia to the ICJ. Russia must be held accountable for manipulating the notion of genocide to justify aggression. We request an urgent decision ordering Russia to cease military activity now and expect trials to start next week.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
It is interesting that drones are now used for war, distributing medicine in parts of Africa, and betting in-running on British racecourses. Yet the use cases we were promised for years, delivering hot food and Amazon parcels, are now done by bikes and vans respectively.
Well drones are operating in Ukraine, the vast majority of fighting is conventional. Even cyberwarfare is being deployed in a support role, so far as we are aware.
Scenario: Cut off from his foreign reserves and the western banking system with Russia facing possible financial collapse the oligarchs 'persuade' Putin to go. The Chinese then step in offering to save Russian economy so long as they choose X,Y,Z as the next leader.
Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:
Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
yes its a bit strange to think the ukrainians are suddenly so angelic they will not lie in the face of trying to keep free. Wishful thinking by some on here. I think even us Brits (that invented cricket!) told porkies about having the capability of a weapon to make the Channel an inferno to prevent a german invasion
Tangentially, what was the perverted science Churchill was on about? "But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science." I always sort of assumed he meant nukes but a. he is talking about after losing the war and b. he said around this time that our existing explosives were quite explosive enough, no need to explore that avenue
Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:
Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
yes its a bit strange to think the ukrainians are suddenly so angelic they will not lie in the face of trying to keep free. Wishful thinking by some on here. I think even us Brits (that invented cricket!) told porkies about having the capability of a weapon to make the Channel an inferno to prevent a german invasion
Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:
Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
yes its a bit strange to think the ukrainians are suddenly so angelic they will not lie in the face of trying to keep free. Wishful thinking by some on here. I think even us Brits (that invented cricket!) told porkies about having the capability of a weapon to make the Channel an inferno to prevent a german invasion
Tangentially, what was the perverted science Churchill was on about? "But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science." I always sort of assumed he meant nukes but a. he is talking about after losing the war and b. he said around this time that our existing explosives were quite explosive enough, no need to explore that avenue
Okay this is pretty interesting, Chinese state affiliated media is posting a video of Chinese students in Kyiv asking for peace.
It’s not outright pro Ukrainian, but it definitely does not paint the Russians in the best light...
Again, you have to remember that this was most likely approved by a Chinese state backed editorial board. There is an implicit backing of the message here by the Chinese.
China surely realises that Putin is achieving the opposite of what China wants: a revived, united west, rearming and prepared to fight. Whether it is for Latvia - or Taiwan
Are we rearming?
I'd hope it would be obvious, but when it comes to the budget statement later in the spring, with the political unpopularity of the NI increase, massive interest payments on our debt, the gaping maw of what the NHS requires simply to return to the level of dysfunction it was capable of before Covid, and very many other demands on our finances - is Chancellor Sunak going to set our defence budget on a pathway to funding of 3% of GDP or more?
I don't see it happening. I think there needs to be a big political push to make it happen.
According to Liam Fox on QT yesterday it would appear that few NATO countries pay up in full their subscriptions. Apparently Germany are amongst the worst offenders.
Bringing arrears up to date would be a good start.
Not a subscription I think, an expectation (set by trump?) as to how much of gdp gets spent on defence
There is absolutely nothing in the NATO treaty that says how much members have to spend on defence. There was a "commitment" to 2% at the 2014 summit by the defence ministers but nothing was binding.
There are also direct payments from members to fund NATO admin, etc. through the PRBB. This is the "subscription". Nobody has ever defaulted on this and Germany is by far the biggest European contributor paying half as much again as the UK and equalling the US contribution.
iirc Britain's reaction to the 2% rule was to decrease spending and cook the books with notional pension costs.
It was actually to adopt a standard, cross NATO, way of accounting for military spending.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
It is interesting that drones are now used for war, distributing medicine in parts of Africa, and betting in-running on British racecourses. Yet the use cases we were promised for years, delivering hot food and Amazon parcels, are now done by bikes and vans respectively.
Don't forget construction. Going onto a roof with ladders to give an estimate for tiles or guttering is old school now.
Czech FA follow Poland and will boycott their World Cup qualifier against Russia. Significant - "Not even on the neutral venue." More pressure on FIFA to remove Russia from tournament. https://twitter.com/ceskarepre_eng/status/1497875324947865605
I assume we have channels of communication open directly to Putin.
Ideally, someone would be able to convince him to take the shame and stop this evil act.
But that's probably impossible. So, what should we be saying to those under Putin who we can talk to? What carrot-and-stick measures could persuade them either to change Putin's mind, or get rid of him?
Russia's image in the rest of the world has been damaged for a generation. Not just by this act, but by many others over the last two decades.
Given the quality of Western Intelligence we must have access to a number of them.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
Czech FA follow Poland and will boycott their World Cup qualifier against Russia. Significant - "Not even on the neutral venue." More pressure on FIFA to remove Russia from tournament. https://twitter.com/ceskarepre_eng/status/1497875324947865605
Good. Life has to be made wretchedly uncomfortable for Russia and Russians, until they eject their murderous and lunatic leader. The sports boycott of apartheid South Africa was, by all accounts, surprisingly effective. It depressed the Afrikaaners big time
Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:
Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
yes its a bit strange to think the ukrainians are suddenly so angelic they will not lie in the face of trying to keep free. Wishful thinking by some on here. I think even us Brits (that invented cricket!) told porkies about having the capability of a weapon to make the Channel an inferno to prevent a german invasion
Tangentially, what was the perverted science Churchill was on about? "But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science." I always sort of assumed he meant nukes but a. he is talking about after losing the war and b. he said around this time that our existing explosives were quite explosive enough, no need to explore that avenue
I always read that as ‘race science’
makes sense.
also of course atom bombs tend to make things less protracted not more
Anyone watching CNN right now? German Chancellor announcing significant increased investment in armed forces. Doesn't sound like everyone in Parliament is happy...
It's almost as if they've got a completely new government. With different policies. Who'd have imagined that?
You don't think the discontent is likely to be from within the factions of the new government? It's more likely to be coming from the Greens than the right, no?
I wouldn't know. What I do know is that the German election was a major geopolitical shift. It would have been even without Ukraine. It isn't just the CDU out on their ear. It was two parties voted for predominantly by the elderly, being replaced by a coalition in which 2 of the 3 parties are voted for predominantly by the young. It was a generational change in world view.
Of course. But not sure that leads to being in favour of German rearmament, does it? OK so there's two conflicts things - older generation has more instinctive understanding of reasons for German neutrality and maybe younger generation more likely to say "we are a big country, why shouldn't we have an army to match?". But then, younger generation are usually portrayed as being more anti war (and not from a position of "peace through strength"). But maybe this is different in Germany.
Yeah. Fair enough. What I meant is the old shibboleths are no more. And you can't get much more anti-War than the administration just replaced.
Yeah, but Germany is a completely different country these days. It has to take a view on today's realities, not on the disgraceful behaviour of a completely different regime 80 years ago.
Scenario: Cut off from his foreign reserves and the western banking system with Russia facing possible financial collapse the oligarchs 'persuade' Putin to go. The Chinese then step in offering to save Russian economy so long as they choose X,Y,Z as the next leader.
The oligarchs don't control Russia, which is why I'm a bit sceptical of confiscating yachts, football clubs and Harrods loyalty cards. It is not even the army any more since Putin watched Death of Stalin and carved out half of it for his own protection. It is the KGB that can replace him, though natural causes might get there first if medical speculation is to be believed.
What China can do is buy the Russian gas that Germany doesn't want, and set up an alternative banking system which will reduce the dollar's hegemony.
Scenario: Cut off from his foreign reserves and the western banking system with Russia facing possible financial collapse the oligarchs 'persuade' Putin to go. The Chinese then step in offering to save Russian economy so long as they choose X,Y,Z as the next leader.
The crucial question is : how much preparation has he done for this ? From what I read a couple of weeks ago, for any preparations for the economy to be effective they might most likely have been done in concert with China. If that was so and the Chinese are cooling on their support, as there seem to be some hints of, today, that surely might be an ending-level event or him.
Politically this is the same problem they (and Biden) had with Afghanistan: The voters want refugees when the crisis is the main thing in the news, but at some point they'll get bored with the story and they won't want them any more.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
It is interesting that drones are now used for war, distributing medicine in parts of Africa, and betting in-running on British racecourses. Yet the use cases we were promised for years, delivering hot food and Amazon parcels, are now done by bikes and vans respectively.
Don't forget construction. Going onto a roof with ladders to give an estimate for tiles or guttering is old school now.
And rescue at sea and in mountains. Lives are being saved daily by drones checking out avalanches etc
They are marvellous tech. And soon we will have pilotless taxi drones
Czech FA follow Poland and will boycott their World Cup qualifier against Russia. Significant - "Not even on the neutral venue." More pressure on FIFA to remove Russia from tournament. https://twitter.com/ceskarepre_eng/status/1497875324947865605
Good. Life has to be made wretchedly uncomfortable for Russia and Russians, until they eject their murderous and lunatic leader. The sports boycott of apartheid South Africa was, by all accounts, surprisingly effective. It depressed the Afrikaaners big time
FIFA will have to toss Russia out. Nobody will play them. The World Cup would become a farce.
I should think the Qataris will have a word in their shell-like if FIFA don't figure it out for themselves.
The increase in German defence spending announced is really large. I think they've just announced they're going to nearly double their defence budget.
Now, it's true that only takes their defence spending up to the 2% NATO target, but this is a major shift in thinking and priorities that I would like to see the UK match.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
Wonder if the Government will face the wrath of Big and Expensive and chums by buying off the shelf - like the Airseekers.
Trouble is if we become too reliant on foreign arms, we lose our own industry and become dependent on countries that might in future years become hostile or even, and this is more likely, countries that decide to stop making the ACME boot polish the British army depends on, leaving us to scrabble around buying spares and scraps from shady arms dealers.
Scenario: Cut off from his foreign reserves and the western banking system with Russia facing possible financial collapse the oligarchs 'persuade' Putin to go. The Chinese then step in offering to save Russian economy so long as they choose X,Y,Z as the next leader.
XYZ? Xiao Yan Zhou as next Russian President would be interesting.
Sadly, I suspect Ukrainian bravery and resistance are only delaying, not overcoming, Russia's immediate war aims. This raises the question of what is likely to happen once Russia has eliminated the Ukrainian government.
Here I think the parallel is with Iraq, not Afghanistan. Both programmes suffered optimism bias, believing the invaders would be at least accepted if not welcomed. Also little apparent planning for day 2. It is probably worse for Russia than the Iraq invasion was for America. Russia can less afford it; Ukraine appears to have a shallower support from citizens; the Ukrainian opposition is likely to be more unified.
So I suppose Russia can set up "Green Zone" in Kiev with a puppet government with someone like Victor Medvedchuk (worth a read) . Then what?
I joined a huge crowd in Freedom Square, where President Karis made a speech which was clear and precise. The fear in Tallinn that has been building for months has finally gone. The courage of the Ukrainian fighters has inspired the whole of the Baltic.
So many countries, from Finland to Germany that felt that the Baltic was crying wolf about Russia have now publically admitted their mistakes, and so now Estonia feels that the alliance is stronger and that we are safer.
Things might move slowly or quickly, but the direction of travel is clear. This is Putin´s war, and he must pay the ultimate price. Nevertheless the war is far from over and even though the flow of support to Ukraine is strong, we also know that Putin is a ruthless and now an increasingly desperate man. It may be that some very dark days lie ahead, but now we have the hope of victory, the hope that the Ukrainians have given us.
As an aside it is crystal clear that the five eyes have been incredibly successful at understanding the strategic and the tactical position of Russia. British and American intelligence has been spot on and this has been a significant part of the way that other NATO allies learned the scale of the plot that Putin was launching and of maintaining the cohesion of the alliance. I have little doubt that when the history is written, the quality of Western intelligence will be seen as the decisive advantage. Although it is the Ukrainians that are paying the price, their courage and determination is inspirational. If and when victory is acheived then a full scale Marshall plan should be the least we can do for the country that has stood alone against the tyrant. The gratitude that Estonia feels is certainly very profound.
We won't find out about it for months, if not years, but I suspect GCHQ and Mi6 are effectively operating on a war footing at the moment and feeding live intelligence to Ukrainian forces 24/7.
This will be a factor in making best use of their bravery and stoicism to conduct the most effective defence.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
Wonder if the Government will face the wrath of Big and Expensive and chums by buying off the shelf - like the Airseekers.
Trouble is if we become too reliant on foreign arms, we lose our own industry and become dependent on countries that might in future years become hostile or even, and this is more likely, decide to stop making the ACME boot polish the British army depends on, leaving us to scrabble around buying spares and scraps from shady arms dealers.
If they can build something that works, then we should buy it.
Or should we sit through yet another terminal failure of British Industry trying to build AEW? Nimrod was actually about 17th attempt - just the one that got the furthest before it fell over.
The biggest problem is the ludicrous "But we have a unique requirement for square wheels" stuff.
Around 4,300 Russian troops have been killed since February 24, according to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.
The ministry also said 706 Russian APCs, 146 tanks, 27 planes, and 26 helicopters had been destroyed.
On Friday the Economist reported: “Despite being outgunned and outnumbered, Ukraine inflicted more casualties in 24 hours than Russia suffered over eight years of engagements in Syria.”
That figure is actually given as killed or wounded. I think their figures are relatively credible.
On topic, I think the UK should focus on providing safe refuges for the women and children who are escaping Ukraine to well equipped and safe border zones inside the neighbouring EU states. We should be generous in building and funding these. Priorities for asylum in the UK should include the most vulnerable, those with family/personal links, and, crucially, the political and military leadership of the Ukrainian Government, in exile, should that become necessary.
This should be aimed as a temporary measure pending a restoration of independent Ukrainian Government.
All other efforts should be focused on helping them defeat the invasion, because none of them really want to leave - they want to go back home.
Ah yes, here it starts, ".... inside the neighbouring EU states."
What the bellicose are really frightened of is refugees in their pretty towns and villages.
Of course, people want to leave Ukraine. It is going to be a bloody & murderous place for some time, whatever happens.
If I was a young person in Ukraine, I'd want to get the feck out of there and have a decent life somewhere else.
War means refugees.
It is the inevitable excuse making for why they *always* have to go somewhere else. The Government will try it too, but it doesn't wash in this instance.
Asylum, as we all know, is a complex and contentious issue, and Britain doesn't have infinite room to accommodate all the people who might want to come here. However, the UK is also part of a large alliance taking concerted action to help Ukraine, and part of that is going to have to be giving shelter to refugees who, unless the Ukrainians somehow pull off a stellar victory against huge odds, are going to be exiled from home for years.
Simply dumping several million people in the laps of the governments of the border states under such circumstances isn't acceptable.
But, I also don't think we should encourage permanent resettlement (which is what that quickly becomes) that depopulates Ukraine and allows it to be colonised and pacified by Russia.
The fight for Ukraine's future is in Ukraine.
Ukraine is an impossible state, as presently constituted (its boundaries were drawn by a madman, Stalin).
My (wild) guess is that endpoint of all this is an Eastern/Southern Ukraine de facto absorbed into Russia proper and a Northern/Western bit that is a rump independent Ukrainian state.
I don't think Putin cares about the former bits of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
This will be accompanied by ethnic cleansing, or at least very substantial population movements.
If you don't like which bit of the country you ended up in, you will move or be killed. All this happened in the West after WW2, it is just delayed in the East.
It was Kruschev who altered the boundaries by transferring Crimea in 1954, as part of his machinations to become boss.
It was formally ceded by Khruschev, but the idea was Stalin's.
The boundaries of the Ukrainian SSR changed quite a bit over its 72 year history.
As I believe the Kenyan ambassador to the UN remarked a few days back, virtually all of the borders in Africa were drawn by colonial powers, frequently cutting across linguistic and kinship boundaries that Africans, if left to their own devices, would've shown respect for. If they all started trying to steal parcels of land from one another on that basis, the whole continent would be consumed by warfare. If Russia is allowed to keep getting away with redrawing its boundaries based on historical grievances of this kind then it opens the door to total chaos.
Besides which, AIUI every region of Ukraine - including Crimea, albeit by a narrower margin than most of the others - voted in favour of Ukrainian independence in 1991.
Yes, strange that a plebiscite is the way to settle an issue, and yet the votes in 1991 can be ignored if doing so further's Russian interests.
As I recollect, John Major was in power in 1991. He is not still in power because there have been elections. The world is not frozen in 1991.
Yet, you don't think a boundary can ever be revisited.
If there is an overwhelming majority in every part of the Ukraine for the present boundaries, surely a plebsicite will confirm that ?
A powerful argument that the Ukrainian state can use to retain Donetsk and Luhansk, no? .
It's a fantasy to believe there can be a free vote in areas of Ukraine occupied by the Russians.
Edit: And besides, your talking point from a few days ago is that plebiscites do settle this issue for the long term, rather than creating the backwards and forwards conflict of war after war over the boundaries. You weren't arguing for every generation to redraw the borders with new plebiscites.
You are embarrassingly all over the place with this, because you refuse to stand up to Russian aggression, and so you are casting around for any sort of figleaf to explain how it could easily have been avoided.
Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.
If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
Wonder if the Government will face the wrath of Big and Expensive and chums by buying off the shelf - like the Airseekers.
Trouble is if we become too reliant on foreign arms, we lose our own industry and become dependent on countries that might in future years become hostile or even, and this is more likely, countries that decide to stop making the ACME boot polish the British army depends on, leaving us to scrabble around buying spares and scraps from shady arms dealers.
Yes. There’s no reason we couldn’t make our own cheaper drones. The technology is not secret and world-beating, just put together cleverly - AIUI
So buy a few of the Turkish UAVs and then start manufacturing our own. Tell BAE they need to be cheap. Not cutting edge. T34s not Tigers
Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.
At last. Excellent news.
France, UK and Germany need to commit to funding one heavy warfighting division each, hopefully the US add two on top. That's the core and other NATO allies can add battalions or brigades to it.
That should allow an utterly modern core NATO European army of 75k in total strength with next generation tanks, APCs, armoured infrantry, air power/drones and naval assets - which if course can be further reinforced if needed.
The Ukrainian plan seems to be we’re willing to see higher casualties and more destruction as a means to make it more difficult for Putin to sell this back home.
The hope is that it loses public support and the longer shot that there’s a Moscow coup .
Given the cards are so stacked against Ukraine this plan seems to be the only one on offer . A quick victory for Putin must be avoided at all costs .
Czech FA follow Poland and will boycott their World Cup qualifier against Russia. Significant - "Not even on the neutral venue." More pressure on FIFA to remove Russia from tournament. https://twitter.com/ceskarepre_eng/status/1497875324947865605
Good. Life has to be made wretchedly uncomfortable for Russia and Russians, until they eject their murderous and lunatic leader. The sports boycott of apartheid South Africa was, by all accounts, surprisingly effective. It depressed the Afrikaaners big time
FIFA will have to toss Russia out. Nobody will play them. The World Cup would become a farce.
I should think the Qataris will have a word in their shell-like if FIFA don't figure it out for themselves.
But Infantino might need to give back his Russian state medal?
Sadly, I suspect Ukrainian bravery and resistance are only delaying, not overcoming, Russia's immediate war aims. This raises the question of what is likely to happen once Russia has eliminated the Ukrainian government.
Here I think the parallel is with Iraq, not Afghanistan. Both programmes suffered optimism bias, believing the invaders would be at least accepted if not welcomed. Also little apparent planning for day 2. It is probably worse for Russia than the Iraq invasion was for America. Russia can less afford it; Ukraine appears to have a shallower support from citizens; the Ukrainian opposition is likely to be more unified.
So I suppose Russia can set up "Green Zone" in Kiev with a puppet government with someone like Victor Medvedchuk (worth a read) . Then what?
That is a very interesting article, thanks for posting it.
"‼️Belarus is preparing an air assault on Ukraine! ‼️ Trusted sources in Belarusian opposition journalists inform units of Belarusian special forces prepare paratrooper assault in the Kyiv & Zhytomyr directions
Thus, Belarus is starting an invasion of Ukraine with its own forces"
Terrifying for Ukraine, but doesn't seem like a good sign for Russia either.
Great George Kennan quote on R4. “ The jealous and intolerant eye of the Kremlin can distinguish, in the end, only vassals and enemies…” Not much has changed since 1944.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
Wonder if the Government will face the wrath of Big and Expensive and chums by buying off the shelf - like the Airseekers.
Trouble is if we become too reliant on foreign arms, we lose our own industry and become dependent on countries that might in future years become hostile or even, and this is more likely, countries that decide to stop making the ACME boot polish the British army depends on, leaving us to scrabble around buying spares and scraps from shady arms dealers.
Yes. There’s no reason we couldn’t make our own cheaper drones. The technology is not secret and world-beating, just put together cleverly - AIUI
So buy a few of the Turkish UAVs and then start manufacturing our own. Tell BAE they need to be cheap. Not cutting edge. T34s not Tigers
If all you're doing is ordering from a factory along the M1 then it becomes harder for the 10% agents to interpose themselves into the transactions.
The biggest problem is the ludicrous "But we have a unique requirement for square wheels" stuff.
There is a scene in the West Wing where they are discussing why an ashtray for a submarine costs $400 and the explanation is that it is made of glass and designed to break into 3 large blunt pieces instead of multiple shards in case of an accident.
What is never explored is why they don't use those pressed aluminium saucers that used to be ubiquitous in pubs...
Also the probably apocryphal story of the American space pen, designed to write upside down in zero gravity. Or use a pencil...
In both cases starting with a fixed assumption (ashtrays are made of glass, write with a pen) leads you down an expensive path
Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:
Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
yes its a bit strange to think the ukrainians are suddenly so angelic they will not lie in the face of trying to keep free. Wishful thinking by some on here. I think even us Brits (that invented cricket!) told porkies about having the capability of a weapon to make the Channel an inferno to prevent a german invasion
They weren't entirely untrue - Operation Lucid and all that. Thanks to Shell (and others) the UK had stupendous stock of petroleum, refined and unrefined. Which naturally lead to ideas of weaponising it. The most effective weapon was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_fougasse
Re oil stocks, in no small part it was also due to the work of the US drillers who came over to Britain (breaking US law in the process) to drill our own onshore oil reserves. The area of Kelham Hills near Newark produced over two and a quarter million barrels of oil during WW2. There are almost 1000 oil wells within 30 miles of Newark.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
Wonder if the Government will face the wrath of Big and Expensive and chums by buying off the shelf - like the Airseekers.
Trouble is if we become too reliant on foreign arms, we lose our own industry and become dependent on countries that might in future years become hostile or even, and this is more likely, decide to stop making the ACME boot polish the British army depends on, leaving us to scrabble around buying spares and scraps from shady arms dealers.
If they can build something that works, then we should buy it.
Or should we sit through yet another terminal failure of British Industry trying to build AEW? Nimrod was actually about 17th attempt - just the one that got the furthest before it fell over.
The biggest problem is the ludicrous "But we have a unique requirement for square wheels" stuff.
Yes, and in recent years we had squaddies complaining about shoddy British rifles being worse than ww1-era Lee Enfields whereas American rifles can be fired by any schoolchild. But on the other hand we've also scrapped British Harriers in favour of American F35s we can barely afford and which fall into the sea because the Fleet Air Arm can't work a checklist.
Bottom line: if we want to be in the arms business (and many do not) then we need to eat our own dog food as the tech nerds say.
"‼️Belarus is preparing an air assault on Ukraine! ‼️ Trusted sources in Belarusian opposition journalists inform units of Belarusian special forces prepare paratrooper assault in the Kyiv & Zhytomyr directions
Thus, Belarus is starting an invasion of Ukraine with its own forces"
Terrifying for Ukraine, but doesn't seem like a good sign for Russia either.
This makes me wonder how the Cold War rules hold up when faced with weapons that are basically robots.
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
It’s a very good point. These Turkish drones are cleverly assembled in Turkey, but much of the tech inside is US and British. And the software?
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
Wonder if the Government will face the wrath of Big and Expensive and chums by buying off the shelf - like the Airseekers.
Trouble is if we become too reliant on foreign arms, we lose our own industry and become dependent on countries that might in future years become hostile or even, and this is more likely, countries that decide to stop making the ACME boot polish the British army depends on, leaving us to scrabble around buying spares and scraps from shady arms dealers.
Yes. There’s no reason we couldn’t make our own cheaper drones. The technology is not secret and world-beating, just put together cleverly - AIUI
So buy a few of the Turkish UAVs and then start manufacturing our own. Tell BAE they need to be cheap. Not cutting edge. T34s not Tigers
Dn't give it to BAe. The culture is giant cost plus contracts.
It's like Boeing. When they were doing to Commercial Crew contract in for flights to the Space Station, the original contracts were under fixed price, per milestone. Do X get Y. Poor Boeing had to gets its lobbyists to get that changed since they couldn't work to the idea of doing work for a sum of money. They needed a river of cash, with nasty demands for results. Their offering still isn't ready.
Fundamentally, the most basic drones are light aircraft crossed with giant model planes. So get a small manufacturer of composites to build an airframe - this is low performance stuff, so no need for zillion dollar tech. An existing aircraft engine - small. Yes, you need hardened communications - encryption and jamming resistant - but, you can buy that off the shelf. Then add some weapons racks.
This is what the Turks did. Minimum viable product. And this is what Big Aerospace *can't* do.
Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:
Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
yes its a bit strange to think the ukrainians are suddenly so angelic they will not lie in the face of trying to keep free. Wishful thinking by some on here. I think even us Brits (that invented cricket!) told porkies about having the capability of a weapon to make the Channel an inferno to prevent a german invasion
Tangentially, what was the perverted science Churchill was on about? "But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science." I always sort of assumed he meant nukes but a. he is talking about after losing the war and b. he said around this time that our existing explosives were quite explosive enough, no need to explore that avenue
I always read that as ‘race science’
Wasn’t Churchill, like many of the great and good, an early adherent of eugenics? It would be nice to think he’d had his eyes opened, yet ‘Keep England white’ makes me skeptical.
The Ukrainian plan seems to be we’re willing to see higher casualties and more destruction as a means to make it more difficult for Putin to sell this back home.
The hope is that it loses public support and the longer shot that there’s a Moscow coup .
Given the cards are so stacked against Ukraine this plan seems to be the only one on offer . A quick victory for Putin must be avoided at all costs .
Are you aware that Russia has been cut off from the western financial system? Robert Peston (not always a fan) thinks only President Xi can save Putin now.
Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:
Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
They might, but they appear to have decided that openness serves them better. The figures could well be seriously over optimistic, but I don’t get the impression they are actively dishonest at all.
The obvious contrast with Russian propaganda seems to be a deliberate decision.
Comments
Yet, you don't think a boundary can ever be revisited.
If there is an overwhelming majority in every part of the Ukraine for the present boundaries, surely a plebsicite will confirm that ?
A powerful argument that the Ukrainian state can use to retain Donetsk and Luhansk, no?
.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497877298774695936
It's the meatware that matters.
The border is a worry for Russia, not Finland. The Russians will have to patrol it much more actively than ever before. It is a long border.
If you want something todo before heading home the Sheffield Steelers are at home today so there is ice hockey at 4pm if you want some fst action and seemingly random violence. £8 a ticket so you can’t complain about the price
Like traditionally NATO and the Soviets avoid fighting each other directly because that's WW3, but it's normal and accepted to fund and arm other people fighting against the other side. So US troops aren't going to Ukraine to fight the Russians, but they'll send guns for Ukrainians to shoot the Russians with.
Now instead of a gun shooting at a tank, it's a drone bombing the tank. (OK in this case it's Turkey sending it not the US but bear with me.) I guess it has to take off from Ukraine, if they let it take off from Poland that would be WW3. But say as well as the drone being made by the US, the intelligence about where the tank is also comes direct from the US. And having been given a thing to bomb, it can use its software to get there and bomb it. And if it needs a software update it downloads that from the US. Is that all OK on Cold War rules, provided there's a Ukrainian in the Ukraine with a laptop pressing enter? What's the point where we say we're starting WW3, because the US just sent a killer robot to kill Russians?
What I do know is that the German election was a major geopolitical shift. It would have been even without Ukraine.
It isn't just the CDU out on their ear.
It was two parties voted for predominantly by the elderly, being replaced by a coalition in which 2 of the 3 parties are voted for predominantly by the young.
It was a generational change in world view.
- de facto death of Nord Stream 2
- substantial arms deliveries to Ukraine, directly and via 3rd countries
- €100bn investment in armed forces & commitment to 2% NATO goal
(1/2)
- pledge to build two LNG terminals and build up strategic energy reserves
- commitment to ejection of some Russian banks from SWIFT
- probable end of last remaining SPD illusions on Russia, including public disavowals of Schröder
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1497884926565310464
There are also direct payments from members to fund NATO admin, etc. through the PRBB. This is the "subscription". Nobody has ever defaulted on this and Germany is by far the biggest European contributor paying half as much again as the UK and equalling the US contribution.
I've gone from looking like a Neanderthal to looking like a football hooligan.
I'm unconvinced that it's an improvement...
As the party will continue to view the use of military force as ultima ratio, a Green Foreign Minister would emphasise human security, conflict prevention and management before anything else. What might relieve non-German observers is that the German Greens tend to avoid the term ‘defence policy’ and label everything related to it as ‘peace and security policy’, even if it contains hard security matters. For example, the Greens state in their election program that they want to better equip the Bundeswehr, see NATO as indispensable (despite their criticism of what they believe is an arbitrary 2% goal), and support increased defence cooperation in the EU.
https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/principled-but-tough-the-greens-chance-to-overhaul-berlins-security-and-defence-policy/
The German Green co-leaders have also occupied the hawkish wing of coalition policy towards Putin. It's the SPD that were, up until the last few days, more wedded to co-operation with his regime.
Also, Finnair are fucked. They can't fly anywhere to the east without overflying Russia without a massive expensive detour. That's most of their business model ruined, connecting flights from Europe to Asia, overflying Russia. They may as well mothball most of their long range fleet.
.... Also, if I am right, then the massively expanded Helsinki airport and the new suburbs around it are largely pointless. The economic consequences of all these split second geopolitical decisions are absolutely enormous and difficult to comprehend.
Perhaps we could sell them one of ours?
[Translated] From Sunday, 3 p.m.: German airspace will be closed to Russian flights
https://twitter.com/ntvde/status/1497882590061088770
Which means the Greens, as well as the notoriously parsimonious FDP are fully signed up. Well, leadership at least.
And what are the chances that US satellites are quietly ‘helping’ the Ukrainian drone operators?
Another thing is the cheapness of this kit. A Bayraktar drone is $1-2m. A big hi tech US drone is $15-40m
But the cheap Turkish drone can do enormous damage and win wars (as we saw in Nagorno Karabakh)
Apparently the MoD is thinking of buying some
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/12/turning-tables-uks-case-for-buying.html
Ukrainian MP Kira Rudyk tells @jennykleeman she's armed herself with a Kalashnikov rifle.
@kiraincongress | #TimesRadio https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1497879179144024067/video/1
If that did happen then the concerns about Russia become very different. Back to the end of the cold war and securing their nuclear arsenal etc.
And you can't get much more anti-War than the administration just replaced.
Ideally, someone would be able to convince him to take the shame and stop this evil act.
But that's probably impossible. So, what should we be saying to those under Putin who we can talk to? What carrot-and-stick measures could persuade them either to change Putin's mind, or get rid of him?
Russia's image in the rest of the world has been damaged for a generation. Not just by this act, but by many others over the last two decades.
Best wishes.
The only parties in Germany now who do not want action against Putin are Linke and the AfD
Jack Cocchiarella
@JDCocchiarella
President Zelenskyy in 2006 on the Ukrainian version of Dancing with the Stars.
Legend.
https://twitter.com/JDCocchiarella/status/1497774010444226560
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1497885721931268103
Zelensky - I'm here in Kyiv fighting
One ISN'T "obviously less likely to be bent"?!?!
Discuss.
also of course atom bombs tend to make things less protracted not more
What China can do is buy the Russian gas that Germany doesn't want, and set up an alternative banking system which will reduce the dollar's hegemony.
They are marvellous tech. And soon we will have pilotless taxi drones
I should think the Qataris will have a word in their shell-like if FIFA don't figure it out for themselves.
Can't see the wealth of evidence of them going down well at home for very long.
Now, it's true that only takes their defence spending up to the 2% NATO target, but this is a major shift in thinking and priorities that I would like to see the UK match.
Xiao Yan Zhou as next Russian President would be interesting.
Here I think the parallel is with Iraq, not Afghanistan. Both programmes suffered optimism bias, believing the invaders would be at least accepted if not welcomed. Also little apparent planning for day 2. It is probably worse for Russia than the Iraq invasion was for America. Russia can less afford it; Ukraine appears to have a shallower support from citizens; the Ukrainian opposition is likely to be more unified.
So I suppose Russia can set up "Green Zone" in Kiev with a puppet government with someone like Victor Medvedchuk (worth a read) . Then what?
This will be a factor in making best use of their bravery and stoicism to conduct the most effective defence.
Or should we sit through yet another terminal failure of British Industry trying to build AEW? Nimrod was actually about 17th attempt - just the one that got the furthest before it fell over.
The biggest problem is the ludicrous "But we have a unique requirement for square wheels" stuff.
- quit his job at Russian energy giant EN+
- resign from House of Lords
- ‘explain why he works with people like Deripaska’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10556041/Ex-Tory-energy-minister-Lord-Barker-urged-quit-Lords-6million-year-links-EN.html
I think their figures are relatively credible.
Edit: And besides, your talking point from a few days ago is that plebiscites do settle this issue for the long term, rather than creating the backwards and forwards conflict of war after war over the boundaries. You weren't arguing for every generation to redraw the borders with new plebiscites.
You are embarrassingly all over the place with this, because you refuse to stand up to Russian aggression, and so you are casting around for any sort of figleaf to explain how it could easily have been avoided.
So buy a few of the Turkish UAVs and then start manufacturing our own. Tell BAE they need to be cheap. Not cutting edge. T34s not Tigers
France, UK and Germany need to commit to funding one heavy warfighting division each, hopefully the US add two on top. That's the core and other NATO allies can add battalions or brigades to it.
That should allow an utterly modern core NATO European army of 75k in total strength with next generation tanks, APCs, armoured infrantry, air power/drones and naval assets - which if course can be further reinforced if needed.
Putin ain't getting past that lot.
The hope is that it loses public support and the longer shot that there’s a Moscow coup .
Given the cards are so stacked against Ukraine this plan seems to be the only one on offer . A quick victory for Putin must be avoided at all costs .
Trusted sources in Belarusian opposition journalists inform units of Belarusian special forces prepare paratrooper assault in the Kyiv & Zhytomyr directions
Thus, Belarus is starting an invasion of Ukraine with its own forces"
Terrifying for Ukraine, but doesn't seem like a good sign for Russia either.
“ The jealous and intolerant eye of the Kremlin can distinguish, in the end, only vassals and enemies…”
Not much has changed since 1944.
See PPE.
What is never explored is why they don't use those pressed aluminium saucers that used to be ubiquitous in pubs...
Also the probably apocryphal story of the American space pen, designed to write upside down in zero gravity. Or use a pencil...
In both cases starting with a fixed assumption (ashtrays are made of glass, write with a pen) leads you down an expensive path
Bottom line: if we want to be in the arms business (and many do not) then we need to eat our own dog food as the tech nerds say.
It's like Boeing. When they were doing to Commercial Crew contract in for flights to the Space Station, the original contracts were under fixed price, per milestone. Do X get Y. Poor Boeing had to gets its lobbyists to get that changed since they couldn't work to the idea of doing work for a sum of money. They needed a river of cash, with nasty demands for results. Their offering still isn't ready.
Fundamentally, the most basic drones are light aircraft crossed with giant model planes. So get a small manufacturer of composites to build an airframe - this is low performance stuff, so no need for zillion dollar tech. An existing aircraft engine - small. Yes, you need hardened communications - encryption and jamming resistant - but, you can buy that off the shelf. Then add some weapons racks.
This is what the Turks did. Minimum viable product. And this is what Big Aerospace *can't* do.
The figures could well be seriously over optimistic, but I don’t get the impression they are actively dishonest at all.
The obvious contrast with Russian propaganda seems to be a deliberate decision.