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Powerful front pages following Putin’s aggression – politicalbetting.com

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  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    edited February 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    The only way to do that is to demonstrate by actions now that should any aggressive action be taken by Russia against a NATO state, Art 5 will be invoked and military action will follow.

    That doesn't mean fine words and the promise of unspecified sanctions. It means, I fear, being willing to fight for all those Baltic and Eastern European countries which were once part of the Soviet Union. We must be prepared to do this and Putin must believe that we are willing to do this.

    If not, we will see the violent break up of the Eastern half of the EU and the reimposition of an Iron Curtain in Europe.

    Perhaps I am unduly fearful. But it is the logical consequence of both Putin's speech the other day and his statement about the collapse of the Soviet Union being the worst thing to have happened in his lifetime. Why wouldn't he try to reimpose it if he thought he could?
    I am fairly pessimistic. The problem will remain that I doubt every NATO member would be prepared to act in the circumstances you describe. If Trump or one his acolytes is back in the WH by then I suspect Putin would gamble on NATO not following through. Unless Germany have eliminated their energy dependence on Russia I expect all we will get there is weasel words again
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Farooq said:

    I fully support your use of words to try to convey ideas.
    I guess mummy pays your gas bill, Farooq?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    HYUFD said:

    Most graduates will earn more than non graduates so it is right they pay for their degree if it gets them that higher earnings once they earn over £25,000 post graduation (which on those figures will be only past the age of 21 once they are in work and have graduated).

    Retirement age is moving to 67 too, so even if 62 year olds are still repaying no problem if most of them are still working and earning a wage and not yet retired.

    If some non Russell Group and non STEM graduates find their degree only ever earns them £25- £30k a year and they would be better off after student loan repayments doing an apprenticeship instead, no problem.

    That saves them money and also this policy saves taxpayers money too
    That graduates only pay once they have graduated is fairly unsurprising, as before they have graduated, they are not graduates.
    By the way, at what level "is it right that they pay"? Before this, it was over £27,000. Now it seems to be right that they pay 9% extra in (effective) tax beyond £25,000. Would £22,000 be more right? £20,000? £12,500?

    Paying further and further into their lives, again, is very painful. Would you be in favour of increasing to to 67 and the retirement age? Or how about beyond?

    "Some non-Russell Group and non-STEM graduates..." seriously? You are aware that approaching 80% of those in full time employment in their forties will be over this threshold now - you seem to be trying to imply that it's only a small proportion who will be caught.

    This will affect almost everyone. Those on below-average incomes and those from families with below-average incomes (so hurting the aspirational - I always thought the Tories claimed to be pro-aspiration?) will be negatively affected. This COSTS them money. It also means they have less disposable income to afford, say, mortgage prices.
    Those with significantly above-average incomes and from richer families will be helped. This saves THEM money, as shown starkly by the distribution graph posted earlier.

    It's regressive, anti-aspirational, and pro-richer people. All the handwaving you can do doesn't retract from that.

    It does seem as though the Tories are intent on turning what was once an age effect (younger people do not vote Tory; older ones do) into a cohort effect (those born before a certain date will trend Tory; those over will not).
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Nick Palmer would just have said that was 'poking' Russia into the invasion.

    This is why his comment was so unutterably and totally wrong. I'm glad he's changed his tune.
    No I’m merely wondering whether some sort of fudge on NATO could have been made . Whether this would have made any difference I can’t say .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Too dodgy for F1?! Now off to Saudi.

    The FIA has announced that it has stripped Russia of the right to host a Formula 1 Grand Prix for the coming season.

    In a statement issued on Friday, the organisation said "it is impossible to to hold the Russian Grand Prix in the current circumstances".

    "The FIA Formula 1 World Championship visits countries the world over with a positive vision to unite people, bringing nations together," it said.


    Hey, Russia is all about bringing nations together.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    FUDHY, your moment has come! Get your tin helmet on.

    Is your tank amphibious, or do you want us to book you a ferry ticket?
    Found just the thing from Daley's Motors:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XETxuIcCdBQ
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    edited February 2022

    I specifically attacked Germany and Italy before for selling their souls and was inanely accused of anti European prejudice by Kinabalu and now you think I delusionally believe it's all about Trump.

    How about no. Germany's policies for years have been an utter disaster. So was Trump. Two wrongs don't make a right.
    Germany "selling their soul" for Russian gas. This is the sort of thing I mean. Not just you but tons of people expressing themselves like this.

    I watched a doc the other day about the StalinRussia/NaziGermany conflict - the dense black core of WW2 militarily if anything can be described that way. It wasn't that long ago, really, and this terrible history (between those nations) weighs heavy. In Germany there is great guilt and sensitivity about it.

    So, ok, Germany seeking to normalize relations with Russia, be friends, trading actively with them, the energy arrangements, all of this now stands revealed as a serious geopolitical mistake - but "selling their soul"? C'mon.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited February 2022

    Yes, it is.
    Excellent analysis above on the generational inequities of the tax system. But in addition to all that, lets not also forget the other side of the equation.

    Many of those same people in their 60s, including the architects of the present swinging loan regime (i.e. Cameron/Osborne/Clegg), were basically paid to go to university through a support grant and came out pretty well free of debt without needing to work while they were there.

    eg. Me, my Dad was a Deputy Head in a 2,000 pupil secondary school so not short of cash. I got a full maintenance grant for 4 years, took on occasional seasonal jobs but only when back home in the (long) holiday period or otherwise claimed unemployment benefit, ran a car at uni and came out with a bit of cash in the bank rather than £50k of debt. What's more, degrees weren't two a penny and so I'd actually got something of value in the employment market, walking into a graduate entry scheme job on leaving. That sort of thing was pretty common.
  • F1 cancels Russian Grand Prix
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Nigelb said:

    Blatant lies, as has been noted many times, are a characteristic of authoritarian regimes.
    Lying with impunity demonstrates their power.
    As always, Blair was there first.

    "The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Excellent analysis above on the generational inequities of the tax system. But in addition to all that, lets not also forget the other side of the equation.

    Many of those same people in their 60s, including the architects of the present swinging loan regime (i.e. Cameron/Osborne/Clegg), were basically paid to go to university through a support grant and came out pretty well free of debt without needing to work while they were there.

    eg. Me, my Dad was a Deputy Head in a 2,000 pupil secondary school so not short of cash. I got a full maintenance grant for 4 years, took on occasional seasonal jobs but only when back home in the (long) holiday period or otherwise claimed unemployment benefit, ran a car at uni and came out with a bit of cash in the bank rather than £50k of debt. What's more, degrees weren't two a penny and so I'd actually got something of value in the employment market, walking into a graduate entry scheme job on leaving. That sort of thing was pretty common.
    Me too. But instead of voting Tory to pull up the ladder I am ****ing outraged by the hypocrisy of Messrs Cameron & Co, and I vote for parties with the opposite policy.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,374
    nico679 said:

    No I’m merely wondering whether some sort of fudge on NATO could have been made . Whether this would have made any difference I can’t say .
    It would just have been another excuse for Putin, which useful idiots would have jumped on. If it had to have happened, best for it to have happened fifteen years ago.

    Putin wanted this invasion. We won't really know what would have stopped him in the last six months until he and his friends end up in the Hague.

    So that won't happen.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,629

    I think the Green energy agenda died when the first Russian tank went over the border. Strategic thinking at the top must surely kick in after decades of wishful thinking. The increase in energy bills will also change the political mood. I know someone is bound to respond with "now we need to increase the adoption of renewables". I think that is fantasy land unless some major technical break-through occurs. A big nuclear programme might allow decarbonisation to continue but it will take time. I think we might even see fracking pilots restarted and we certainly should.

    You're joking.

    There is a very well funded, very influential, lobby on the side of green energy which has won the battle.

    There is no rolling back on this.

    There is support for high gas prices with mitigation for the poorest to help drive the transition to green. Tory MP Chris Skidmore tweeted recently the solution to high gas prices is not more gas. He is part of a pro net zero Tory parliamentary group.

    Oh, and I completely agree with you too. But it will not happen.
  • Cicero said:

    In Tallinn this morning we are waking up to a world that is changed beyond all our fears. The invasion of Ukraine is seen here as only the first step in an attempte to bring all of the democracies of Europe under either direct Russian control or under the control of Putin´s puppets. As deranged and dangerous as his statements about pushing NATO back beyond the Elbe have been, the truth is that Putin is serious and the implications of his challenge to all civilised values is another general European war, and one that has the capacity to go both global and nuclear very easily.

    So, now everyone knows what the Balts have been warning of for years: Putin´s Russia is out of control and threatening to take the whole world into a new dark age.

    I think, after two days of fighting, it is simply too soon to tell what the ultimate course of events will be. The fog of war is not to be cleared by social media posts or rumours, so I will discount whatever supposedly detailed information that people claim to have. The only thing we can be sure of is that the Ukrainians are making a fight of it. Equally, Russian forces seem poised to capture major parts of the country. Capturing is not, however, the same as holding. Even a defeated Ukraine will not be easily pacified and I would point out that Western leaders are warning us that this could be a very long process. So even if we take a few hours or days to negotiate such moves as the Russian disconnection from Swift and the various other parts of the sanctions package then let us be patient while the coalition of democracies works things out.

    Public opinion around the world is outraged by this. However we will not get easy or quick solutions. Being angry because some figure does not do what you think is necessary is not going to help the process. We are walking on eggs, to try to avoid the slide to nuclear megadeath. Caution and ruthless cold logic dictates that we remain calm, resolved and united. It is critical thát the Putin regime is removed, but in its death throes it has the capacity to kill all of us,

    Don´t beleive all you read/see/hear. and remember we need to be methodical and determined to come out of this alive and free.

    My wife and I feel for you and can only say how much we loved Tallinn when we visited a few years ago in what was a different world then and we must strengthen our resolve to protect all NATO countries from the evil of Putin and his acoylates
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited February 2022

    The path dates back much further than that and was manifest even during the time of the Chechen wars. That's why I said "at least the turn of the century".

    I am not arguing that everything about Western policy from 1990 onwards was fine. But where I am taking issue with you is that Putin's path from then to now owes much if anything to the course of Western policy over that period.
    We'll have to agree to differ there, because I thing two things changed him, primarily - internal chechen influence, and external relationships with the west in the early 2000s.

    He's a dangerous lunatic now, and we have to hope someone internally takes him out pronto.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,321
    Cicero said:

    In Tallinn this morning we are waking up to a world that is changed beyond all our fears. The invasion of Ukraine is seen here as only the first step in an attempte to bring all of the democracies of Europe under either direct Russian control or under the control of Putin´s puppets. As deranged and dangerous as his statements about pushing NATO back beyond the Elbe have been, the truth is that Putin is serious and the implications of his challenge to all civilised values is another general European war, and one that has the capacity to go both global and nuclear very easily.

    So, now everyone knows what the Balts have been warning of for years: Putin´s Russia is out of control and threatening to take the whole world into a new dark age.

    I think, after two days of fighting, it is simply too soon to tell what the ultimate course of events will be. The fog of war is not to be cleared by social media posts or rumours, so I will discount whatever supposedly detailed information that people claim to have. The only thing we can be sure of is that the Ukrainians are making a fight of it. Equally, Russian forces seem poised to capture major parts of the country. Capturing is not, however, the same as holding. Even a defeated Ukraine will not be easily pacified and I would point out that Western leaders are warning us that this could be a very long process. So even if we take a few hours or days to negotiate such moves as the Russian disconnection from Swift and the various other parts of the sanctions package then let us be patient while the coalition of democracies works things out.

    Public opinion around the world is outraged by this. However we will not get easy or quick solutions. Being angry because some figure does not do what you think is necessary is not going to help the process. We are walking on eggs, to try to avoid the slide to nuclear megadeath. Caution and ruthless cold logic dictates that we remain calm, resolved and united. It is critical thát the Putin regime is removed, but in its death throes it has the capacity to kill all of us,

    Don´t beleive all you read/see/hear. and remember we need to be methodical and determined to come out of this alive and free.

    I don't think Putin has any intention of "holding" Ukraine. The goal will be regime change and find another Lukashenko who will do massive repression of dissent on Russia's behalf.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited February 2022

    LAB: 39% (=)
    CON: 35% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)

    Via
    @techneUK
    , 23-24 Feb.
    Changes w/ 16-17 Feb.

    It's quite interesting how Labour has pretty much stabilised around 39% now despite everything even including opinium in the polling averages. At the same time an average ~5% Labour lead will help secure Johnson in place (combined with the Tories doing OK relative to expectations in the local elections in Scotland, London and the Midlands even if they continue to heavily bleed votes in the north such as in yesterday's Ferryhill by election).

    There have been 5(!) polls since that one. Eg:

    England:

    Lab 46%
    Con 39%
    LD 9%
    Grn 4%
    Ref 2%

    Jockistan:

    SNP 41%
    SLab 23%
    SCon 16%
    SLD 15%
    Ref 4%
    Grn 1%

    Western conquest:

    WLab 39%
    WCon 30%
    PC 20%
    WLD 8%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 2%

    (Political Polling and the Russia-Ukraine Crisis by Survation; 17-21 February; 2,050)
  • OllyT said:

    I am fairly pessimistic. The problem will remain that I doubt every NATO member would be prepared to act in the circumstances you describe. If Trump or one his acolytes is back in the WH by then I suspect Putin would gamble on NATO not following through. Unless Germany have eliminated their energy dependence on Russia I expect all we will get there is weasel words again
    I am concerned about Putins possible design on the baltics. I can see a situation where he plays brinkmanship, but that time has not yet come and I hope it will not.

    If however I were Georgia for instance I would be very concerned.
  • kinabalu said:

    Germany "selling their soul" for Russian gas. This is the sort of thing I mean. Not just you but tons of people expressing themselves like this.

    I watched a doc the other day about the StalinRussia/NaziGermany conflict - the dense black core of WW2 militarily if anything can be described that way. It wasn't that long ago, really, and this terrible history (between those nations) weighs heavy. In Germany there is great guilt and sensitivity about it.

    So, ok, Germany seeking to normalize relations with Russia, be friends, trading actively with them, the energy arrangements, all of this now stands revealed as a serious geopolitical mistake - but "selling their soul"? C'mon.
    Yes selling their soul.

    Trading with friendly allies is one thing, but Russia is not a friendly ally. So why is Germany refusing to expel them from SWIFT?

    The French tried diplomacy too, but once Russia invaded they said that they'd been lied to and that action now needed to be taken. Credit to Macron for that.

    But Germany is blocking sanctions. That's not to "normalise" relations, there's nothing "normal" about one European nation invading a European democracy.

    There is no excuse to blocking the sanctions, except that they've sold their souls because of the gas. Sanctions should hurt yourself as well as the other party - even Sir Keir Starmer said that, credit where it's due - but two nations are refusing to do so.

    If not because they've sold their souls for gas, then why?
  • Carnyx said:

    Found just the thing from Daley's Motors:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XETxuIcCdBQ
    The man himself on film. Love his RP.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I don't think Putin has any intention of "holding" Ukraine. The goal will be regime change and find another Lukashenko who will do massive repression of dissent on Russia's behalf.
    Without Russian occupation, if they withdraw then a Lukashenko type will struggle to hold on to power in Ukraine.

    The population is very well armed now to defend themselves.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    As always, Blair was there first.

    "The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth"
    Calling Orwell Blair is a minor irritant but still an irritant. And he wasn't first anyway, the principle was stated by Goebbels. Nor the last, dead cats are the same idea dressed up in Johnson's whimsical charm.

  • Nataliya Vasilyeva
    @Nat_Vasilyeva
    ·
    32m
    Sign of how toxic Russia's war in Ukraine is:

    Elena Chernenko, arguably Russia's best foreign policy reporter, has been kicked out of Lavrov's pool for starting and signing an anti-war petition.

    Elena is widely known as a level-headed professional.

    https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1497179599142330375
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Yes selling their soul.

    Trading with friendly allies is one thing, but Russia is not a friendly ally. So why is Germany refusing to expel them from SWIFT?

    The French tried diplomacy too, but once Russia invaded they said that they'd been lied to and that action now needed to be taken. Credit to Macron for that.

    But Germany is blocking sanctions. That's not to "normalise" relations, there's nothing "normal" about one European nation invading a European democracy.

    There is no excuse to blocking the sanctions, except that they've sold their souls because of the gas. Sanctions should hurt yourself as well as the other party - even Sir Keir Starmer said that, credit where it's due - but two nations are refusing to do so.

    If not because they've sold their souls for gas, then why?
    They have bought the gas, using money, to heat and light their houses. Souls form no part of the transaction.
  • It is perfectly possible to remove usage of oil and gas from the economy. Just as we have removed coal.

    The advantage to doing this is that the alternatives remove* the river of money that goes to bad people**. Plus their short term leverage over us.

    Imagine Putin without the oil and gas money.
    Imagine Iran without the oil money.
    Imagine Saudi without the oil money.

    *Someone will say rare earths, Which aren't rare and aren't earths.
    **Apart from the Norwegians
    It is possible with time - lots of time. What is suicidally idiotic is to remove it before we have the alternatives - which is what is happening at the moment.

    And all those claims about not doing enough to invest in renewables is bunkum. We have increased our yearly wind generation from 5,000 GWh to 70,000 GWh in just 12 years and we are literally building wind turbines as fast as we can. The hold up, where it exists, is not through regulatory or government hindrance but through physical limits on how fast we can build and install the things. Even so we now have the largest offshore wind capacity in the world.

    And once you have completely decarbonised energy, you will still need the 40% of every barrel of oil that doesn't get burnt for all the other stuff it is used for - important stuff like lubricants, plastics and medicines. So if you don't have a home grown hydrocarbon industry then you will still have to have the headache of importing from all those other nasty countries.

    And of course you won't be able to take an asprin for it because that is made from hydrocarbons.
  • Sean_F said:

    It doesn't seem that Putin got value for money from the Conservatives.
    Apart from Brexit, almost breaking up the UK (which might yet happen) and decimating the armed forces, what value did Putin get from the Conservatives?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,662
    edited February 2022

    I think the Green energy agenda died when the first Russian tank went over the border. Strategic thinking at the top must surely kick in after decades of wishful thinking. The increase in energy bills will also change the political mood. I know someone is bound to respond with "now we need to increase the adoption of renewables". I think that is fantasy land unless some major technical break-through occurs. A big nuclear programme might allow decarbonisation to continue but it will take time. I think we might even see fracking pilots restarted and we certainly should.

    Whoever gets in next has the advantage that we already have an excellent Green energy agenda in place and being implemented.

    Carbon intensity of UK electricity is already 2/3 less than it was in 2015.

    The strategy is in place to make the UK an exporter of energy with 15-20 years.

    God knows why the Tories have not been shouting this stuff from the housetops for these last years.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,374
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't think Putin has any intention of "holding" Ukraine. The goal will be regime change and find another Lukashenko who will do massive repression of dissent on Russia's behalf.
    Ah, that makes it all okay then.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,280
    edited February 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    They have bought the gas, using money, to heat and light their houses. Souls form no part of the transaction.
    They were more scared of earthquakes than of Putin.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555
    edited February 2022

    My favourite is the old Soviet joke:

    “The future is certain. It’s the past that keeps changing”.
    The Soviet Union is the most advanced country in the world. Things were already better yesterday than they're going to be tomorrow.

    Two friends meet. One says, 'what do you think our future will be like in four years?' His friend replies, 'how should I know, we don't even know what our past will be like in three or four years.'

    What's the difference between a Soviet optimist and a Soviet pessimist? A pessimist says 'things are so bad they can't possibly get worse,' while the optimist says, 'they can, and they really will.'
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited February 2022
    Who in Ukraine would fill the Lukashenko authoritarian beast kind of role for him ? I suppose there must be someone.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    They have bought the gas, using money, to heat and light their houses. Souls form no part of the transaction.
    Then why are they blocking sanctions? 🤔

    The money has been spent in the past for gas in the past, there is nothing wrong with that. But once you are changing your geopolitical actions, letting down allies and refusing to stand up to aggressors there's more than just money involved.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    F1 - No Russian GP, which most teams will celebrate as they hated it anyway.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    kinabalu said:

    Germany "selling their soul" for Russian gas. This is the sort of thing I mean. Not just you but tons of people expressing themselves like this.

    I watched a doc the other day about the StalinRussia/NaziGermany conflict - the dense black core of WW2 militarily if anything can be described that way. It wasn't that long ago, really, and this terrible history (between those nations) weighs heavy. In Germany there is great guilt and sensitivity about it.

    So, ok, Germany seeking to normalize relations with Russia, be friends, trading actively with them, the energy arrangements, all of this now stands revealed as a serious geopolitical mistake - but "selling their soul"? C'mon.
    I once read that, as the Red Army advanced to Berlin, up to two million German women were raped by Russian soldiers.

    The writer Vasily Grossman details the depressing familiarity of watching the unbuckling of belts and screaming of girls as columns of German refugees were overhauled by advancing soldiers.

    Where's the Russian guilt? where's the Russia guilt over the immense suffering caused by oppressed people in the satellite states during the Warsaw pact years?

    Given the opportunity Russians are just as cruel as anybody.
  • Yes selling their soul.

    Trading with friendly allies is one thing, but Russia is not a friendly ally. So why is Germany refusing to expel them from SWIFT?

    The French tried diplomacy too, but once Russia invaded they said that they'd been lied to and that action now needed to be taken. Credit to Macron for that.

    But Germany is blocking sanctions. That's not to "normalise" relations, there's nothing "normal" about one European nation invading a European democracy.

    There is no excuse to blocking the sanctions, except that they've sold their souls because of the gas. Sanctions should hurt yourself as well as the other party - even Sir Keir Starmer said that, credit where it's due - but two nations are refusing to do so.

    If not because they've sold their souls for gas, then why?
    Why "even" Sir Keir Starmer? Given Starmer's forthright admirable stance on this crisis from day one, that comment should not have surprised in the slightest.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555

    Who in Ukraine could fill the Lukashenko authoritarian beast role for him ? I suppose there must be someone.

    Bring back Yanukovych?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,945
    Thoughts:

    If you're Zelensky, what do you do now?
    Stay in Kyiv? Flee to Lviv? Flee elsewhere?

    Saving your own life would indicate at least the second, if not the third.
    I wonder if he stayed in Kyiv, would the Russians be prepared to shoot a Head of State dead?
    And if they don't, is it straight off to the Gulag for him?
  • Who in Ukraine would fill the Lukashenko authoritarian beast kind of role for him ? I suppose there must be someone.

    It takes years to get to that point. I do wonder if Putin really does intend to commit Russian troops to Ukraine for a decade.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,323
    kinabalu said:

    Germany "selling their soul" for Russian gas. This is the sort of thing I mean. Not just you but tons of people expressing themselves like this.

    I watched a doc the other day about the StalinRussia/NaziGermany conflict - the dense black core of WW2 militarily if anything can be described that way. It wasn't that long ago, really, and this terrible history (between those nations) weighs heavy. In Germany there is great guilt and sensitivity about it.

    So, ok, Germany seeking to normalize relations with Russia, be friends, trading actively with them, the energy arrangements, all of this now stands revealed as a serious geopolitical mistake - but "selling their soul"? C'mon.
    Also, the idea that if only Germany hadn't allowed Nordstream 2 to be built Putin would have dropped his invasion plans seems a bit far-fetched.

    In fact, imagining the counter factual where there was no attempt to engage Russia, probably the planned invasion would be happening just the same and we'd be hearing loads of people saying "this is all the fault of the Germans for refusing to engage with Russia so now they've got nothing to lose"
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    Just feel awful for Ukraine, and utterly powerless.

    I really do not think the EU walks out of this crisis - whenever it ends - in a stronger position. It is hopelessly impotent and divided.

    We have also spent too long placating the Russians in London, time to wean ourselves off their dirty money
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    I am concerned about Putins possible design on the baltics. I can see a situation where he plays brinkmanship, but that time has not yet come and I hope it will not.

    If however I were Georgia for instance I would be very concerned.
    Perhaps we could do a swap - He leaves the Baltics alone (NATO), but gets Sweden instead (non-NATO)?

    Realpolitik requires sacrifices.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    MISTY said:

    Faced with the total collapse of your agenda, I guess insults must be the last resort.
    You do say the oddest things. What I see being trashed is Ukraine not some "agenda" of mine.
  • kinabalu said:

    Germany "selling their soul" for Russian gas. This is the sort of thing I mean. Not just you but tons of people expressing themselves like this.

    I watched a doc the other day about the StalinRussia/NaziGermany conflict - the dense black core of WW2 militarily if anything can be described that way. It wasn't that long ago, really, and this terrible history (between those nations) weighs heavy. In Germany there is great guilt and sensitivity about it.

    So, ok, Germany seeking to normalize relations with Russia, be friends, trading actively with them, the energy arrangements, all of this now stands revealed as a serious geopolitical mistake - but "selling their soul"? C'mon.
    If it gets to the point where your financial reliance or commitments prevent you from doing what is morally right - either as a country or an individual then in my view you have indeed sold your soul.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    kle4 said:

    BBC piece asking why is it so hard to fix the Met's toxic culture. I'd have thought the answer is simple, as with any organisation and institution with cultural problems - that the organisation doesn't want to change, and those who might force it to don't want to, even if they say they do (actions speaking louder than words)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60352112

    Culture can be hard to change, but not as much as people suggest - where there is a will culture changes rapidly and decisively.

    The most important thing is to realise there is a problem and then want to change it.

    I don't believe the Met leadership really believe the first and so have no real will to do the second.

    Until this changes, nothing much will really improve for the better.

    There are lots of organisations that say all the right things but when faced with the reality of what that entails do nothing or the bare minimum, as I know professionally only too well.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,629


    Nataliya Vasilyeva
    @Nat_Vasilyeva
    ·
    32m
    Sign of how toxic Russia's war in Ukraine is:

    Elena Chernenko, arguably Russia's best foreign policy reporter, has been kicked out of Lavrov's pool for starting and signing an anti-war petition.

    Elena is widely known as a level-headed professional.

    https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1497179599142330375

    Would such an open display of dissent have happened even 5 years ago.

    Perhaps this is a turning point for Putin and his Russia
  • Ultimately, Putin will lose. He’s trying to destroy an idea “Ukraine” in the name of an idea that failed, It may take a while, but history and time are against him. In the meantime we must do all we can to raise the cost to Russia of his folly. While the UK and US have stopped clearing of their currencies (you can get round SWIFT, you can’t evade a ban on clearing) the EU has yet to do the same. It would also be nice if some of them were to ban Russian flights and accept the pain that retaliation will bring. Next step would be to refuse flights that have overflown Russia - so China & Japan share the pain too.
  • Why "even" Sir Keir Starmer? Given Starmer's forthright admirable stance on this crisis from day one, that comment should not have surprised in the slightest.
    Indeed and I gave credit to Starmer for that.

    Even Sir Keir because the Leader of the Opposition (regardless of who it is) traditionally dresses up their proposals as all upside and no downside.

    For Sir Keir to be saying we should be doing something that he acknowledges would hurt Britons is refreshingly honest for any LOTO and credit to him for that.

    The vast majority of European countries, including the UK and France it seems and the entire House of Commons it seems is willing to see Russia expelled from SWIFT but Germany isn't. Shame on Germany for that, that's more than just money and more than just "normalisation" with a normal country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555

    Thoughts:

    If you're Zelensky, what do you do now?
    Stay in Kyiv? Flee to Lviv? Flee elsewhere?

    Saving your own life would indicate at least the second, if not the third.
    I wonder if he stayed in Kyiv, would the Russians be prepared to shoot a Head of State dead?
    And if they don't, is it straight off to the Gulag for him?

    If they're willing to invade an entire country why would they baulk at shooting its leader?
  • Manchester United end their £40 million sponsorship deal with Aeroflot

    Good for them

    What next for Chelsea ?
  • Germany is doing everything it can.

    German Ukraine arm supplies debate reignites as pledged helmets still not delivered

    “If we had wanted to deliver weapons, we would have had to do that earlier,” CDU vice-party whip Johann Wadephul said. “Now, this is not possible anymore – we have an ongoing war,” he added.

    The only military aid Germany promised to send Ukraine was a shipment of 5,000 helmets which still have not yet been delivered.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/all/short_news/german-ukraine-arm-supplies-debate-reignites-as-pledged-helmets-still-not-delivered/
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Manchester United end their £40 million sponsorship deal with Aeroflot

    Good for them

    What next for Chelsea ?

    Relegation?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    Cyclefree said:

    The most important thing is to realise there is a problem and then want to change it.

    I don't believe the Met leadership really believe the first and so have no real will to do the second.

    Until this changes, nothing much will really improve for the better.

    There are lots of organisations that say all the right things but when faced with the reality of what that entails do nothing or the bare minimum, as I know professionally only too well.
    I think they want to change (the leadership)

    Except they don't want to the pain of actually changing. So they want reform without all that reform drama.

    Bit like the Greek politicians who were all for reforming the economy as part of joining the Euro. Just the actual reforming of the economy wasn't their thing, was a bit hard and reform didn't suit them anyway.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,321

    Who in Ukraine would fill the Lukashenko authoritarian beast kind of role for him ? I suppose there must be someone.

    Polonskaya? Notionally Ukranian. Exhibits Nadine Dorries levels of slavish loyalty. Complete psycho. She's got a good CV for the job.

    If you want a picture of the future imagine a stilleto heel stamping on your nutsack for ever.
  • MISTY said:

    Relegation?
    While the Premier League seems to have no scruples on this matter, is it possible for the Premier League to say that Abromovich isn't a 'fit and proper' owner?

    Or can that only be determined before takeover and not for an on-going owner?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,662
    edited February 2022
    kamski said:

    Also, the idea that if only Germany hadn't allowed Nordstream 2 to be built Putin would have dropped his invasion plans seems a bit far-fetched.

    In fact, imagining the counter factual where there was no attempt to engage Russia, probably the planned invasion would be happening just the same and we'd be hearing loads of people saying "this is all the fault of the Germans for refusing to engage with Russia so now they've got nothing to lose"
    Russia is getting about $1 billion a week from Nordstream 1 by my calculation, never mind Nordstream 2,

    3 decades of Ostpolilitik has collapsed, and DE is in a mess because they had no plan B for Energy for if it did not work.

    And of course DE did not say anything about actually stopping Nordstream 2 until it was too late. And it has only been suspended, not stopped.

    It's a pity we are not even further ahead with offshore wind, as then we would be able to offer exports to offset their generation of electricity by gas.

  • ydoethur said:

    If they're willing to invade an entire country why would they baulk at shooting its leader?
    Navalny is still alive, because his martyrdom would be worth more than killing him would solve. At least so far.

    I suspect Zelensky would be locked up if caught, however, I do expect him to go to Lviv.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    More in every age group think that "Boris Johnson is NOT the right type of leader to navigate the Russia-Ukraine conflict for the UK" than think he is, in new @SavantaComRes snap poll
    https://twitter.com/PigsAndPolling/status/1497185817067986944


    Your regular reminder that now is exactly the right time to remove him https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1497139951552671744
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    Literally everything is seen through an economic or legal prism in the west nowadays. We are in a reality where Putin doesn’t recognise these - or doesn’t care.

    We need to pull our heads out of our arses
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,777
    Farooq said:

    The nuance is impossible for me to gauge, but it almost sounds like a subtle put down. "We support you in efforts to resolve this through dialogue" rather leaves out what has been happening. It reads to me like diplo-speak for "you really shouldn't be doing it the way you are doing it, you monumental tit".
    Xi is probably one of relatively few people who could get away with calling Putin a “monumental tit”
  • While the Premier League seems to have no scruples on this matter, is it possible for the Premier League to say that Abromovich isn't a 'fit and proper' owner?

    Or can that only be determined before takeover and not for an on-going owner?
    Prospective only I believe.

    https://www.premierleague.com/news/102375
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555

    Navalny is still alive, because his martyrdom would be worth more than killing him would solve. At least so far.

    I suspect Zelensky would be locked up if caught, however, I do expect him to go to Lviv.
    What is the difference between Putin and Zelensky?

    One is a third rate failed comedian who can't act and has become President at the head of a Fascist cabal that spouts a load of rubbish about his country being invaded by a neighbour.

    And the other is President of Ukraine.

    (I would, incidentally, not consider any of that first sentence to apply to Zelensky. But the irony is Putin probably would.)
  • Scott_xP said:

    More in every age group think that "Boris Johnson is NOT the right type of leader to navigate the Russia-Ukraine conflict for the UK" than think he is, in new @SavantaComRes snap poll
    https://twitter.com/PigsAndPolling/status/1497185817067986944


    Your regular reminder that now is exactly the right time to remove him https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1497139951552671744

    Boris is going nowhere whether we like it or not
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    edited February 2022
    OllyT said:

    I am fairly pessimistic. The problem will remain that I doubt every NATO member would be prepared to act in the circumstances you describe. If Trump or one his acolytes is back in the WH by then I suspect Putin would gamble on NATO not following through. Unless Germany have eliminated their energy dependence on Russia I expect all we will get there is weasel words again
    In that case, NATO is dead and, as per @Cicero's post upthread, all the democracies of Europe are at risk.

    Democracy in Europe cannot be held hostage to Germany's needs, a country which has, frankly, caused more misery and suffering in Europe in the last century or more than any other single country - along with Russia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    While the Premier League seems to have no scruples on this matter, is it possible for the Premier League to say that Abromovich isn't a 'fit and proper' owner?

    Or can that only be determined before takeover and not for an on-going owner?
    The FA determined that Thaskin would be fit and proper as an owner. Apparently, light recreational mass murder isn't a disqualification.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    In other news, I read that Sunak has also been sent a questionnaire by the Met.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Scott_xP said:

    More in every age group think that "Boris Johnson is NOT the right type of leader to navigate the Russia-Ukraine conflict for the UK" than think he is, in new @SavantaComRes snap poll
    https://twitter.com/PigsAndPolling/status/1497185817067986944


    Your regular reminder that now is exactly the right time to remove him https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1497139951552671744

    Guving the PCP an ideal excuse in a time of conflict to only select one runner and stop the choice going to the membership.
    Question is do you trust PCP to make the right choice?
  • Prospective only I believe.

    https://www.premierleague.com/news/102375
    That says subject to reviews on a seasonal (so annual) basis doesn't it?

    Surely the Premier League needs to take action at some point if so?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited February 2022
    UEFA have refused to expel Russian prestige club Spartak Moscow from this years Europa League tournament.

    The club owned by a close associate of Putin - oligarch & former military officer Leonid Fedun - is closely connected to many corrupt businesses & been honoured by Putin.


    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1497171738936766466
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555

    Boris is going nowhere whether we like it or not
    Johnson, Trump, Putin, Xi and Bolsonaro are on a plane together. The plane crashes. Who is saved?

    The rest of us...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    Scott_xP said:

    More in every age group think that "Boris Johnson is NOT the right type of leader to navigate the Russia-Ukraine conflict for the UK" than think he is, in new @SavantaComRes snap poll
    https://twitter.com/PigsAndPolling/status/1497185817067986944


    Your regular reminder that now is exactly the right time to remove him https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1497139951552671744

    As someone who hates Bozo - now is not the time to replace him.

    Let another set of events add more to the pile of issues that mean his long term reputation will be of incompetency, crookedness and material harm to the UK as a whole.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    philiph said:

    Guving the PCP an ideal excuse in a time of conflict to only select one runner and stop the choice going to the membership.
    Question is do you trust PCP to make the right choice?

    There are very few members of the PCP who would be a worse PM than BoZo so the odds are good
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,629

    Boris is going nowhere whether we like it or not
    If he was deposed I wonder what Scotty would post about ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited February 2022

    That says subject to reviews on a seasonal (so annual) basis doesn't it?

    Surely the Premier League needs to take action at some point if so?
    Per page 142, I would suggest to be removed they would need to actually have been sanctioned.

    https://resources.premierleague.com/premierleague/document/2022/02/14/83120bf7-1dbc-4d3a-b96f-7d54718bc62a/PL_Handbook_2021_22_DIGITAL_11-02-22.pdf

    Even that may not be enough.

    Contrast "No Person may acquire any Holding in a Club if, pursuant to the law of the United Kingdom or the European Union:
    F.23.1. he/she is prohibited from entering the United Kingdom"
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    ydoethur said:

    If they're willing to invade an entire country why would they baulk at shooting its leader?
    I think at some point he needs to flee and setup a government in exile. But whatever he does he is being incredibly brave.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    eek said:

    Let another set of events add more to the pile of issues that mean his long term reputation will be of incompetency, crookedness and material harm to the UK as a whole.

    I would rather stem the material harm now
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    This was posted earlier

    What would you do if a foreign army landed in Britain?

    What would you say to the kids before you left home not for work but for war?

    What would you say to your friends who decided to flee to protect their family while you fought? Or to those who fought while you leave?

    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1497121830125064193
    https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1497120472873545729


    He should ask his fellow Tory MPs who can't summon up enough courage to write a letter...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    Putin calls Biden and says "our scientists have discovered a newspaper from the year 2100 and it says the US is no longer a superpower" Biden responds "our scientists have also discovered a newspaper from the year 2100, and it says there are skirmishes on the Chino- Finnish border".
    Bush, Mitterrand and Gorbachev got caught up in an accident, and while unconscious, meet God

    Bush asks -"When will America's problems be solved?"
    God says "10 years"
    Bush begins to cry - "I won't be President then"
    Mitterrand asks "When will France's problems be solved?"
    God says "20 years"
    Mitterrand begins to cry - "I'm an old man, I won't be President..."
    Gorbachev asks - "When will Russia's problems be solved?"

    God begins to cry...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    Yes selling their soul.

    Trading with friendly allies is one thing, but Russia is not a friendly ally. So why is Germany refusing to expel them from SWIFT?

    The French tried diplomacy too, but once Russia invaded they said that they'd been lied to and that action now needed to be taken. Credit to Macron for that.

    But Germany is blocking sanctions. That's not to "normalise" relations, there's nothing "normal" about one European nation invading a European democracy.

    There is no excuse to blocking the sanctions, except that they've sold their souls because of the gas. Sanctions should hurt yourself as well as the other party - even Sir Keir Starmer said that, credit where it's due - but two nations are refusing to do so.

    If not because they've sold their souls for gas, then why?
    I'm not defending Germany's stance right now on sanctions. I'm giving some context on why Germany has, since the fall of the USSR and their reunification, been especially motivated to have a positive relationship with Russia. If you want to view these efforts as "selling their soul", so be it, but for me it's a shallow and jaundiced take.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited February 2022

    The FA determined that Thaskin would be fit and proper as an owner. Apparently, light recreational mass murder isn't a disqualification.
    There was a very interesting al jazeera documentary a few months ago where they posed as a dodgy Chinese businessman with criminal convictions and showed how he was still able to get to the stage of being able to buy Derby County.

    It got zero coverage in the media here, despite a central claim of dodgy Cypriot passport scheme they exposed on camera, being shown to be 100% true and those shown on camera being later forced out of positions.

    The Men Who Sell Football | Al Jazeera Investigations
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldgTCXpDEgk
  • The Russians have yet to make the decisive breakthrough in Ukraine. They will do so eventually, but despite overwhelming numbers they seem to be making heavy weather of it. I wonder if military leaders would countenance an attack on a NATO member state, even if Putin wanted it to happen.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eek said:

    As someone who hates Bozo - now is not the time to replace him.

    Let another set of events add more to the pile of issues that mean his long term reputation will be of incompetency, crookedness and material harm to the UK as a whole.
    Also, leave Putin untouched till he has taken poland and the Baltic states, so that we can all hate him even more. egg him on, if anything. The last thing the world needs is a contemptible liar in charge of this country. Do you really think his incompetent frivolity over Kabul sent no message at allk to the Kremlin?
  • kinabalu said:

    I'm not defending Germany's stance right now on sanctions. I'm giving some context on why Germany has, since the fall of the USSR and their reunification, been especially motivated to have a positive relationship with Russia. If you want to view these efforts as "selling their soul", so be it, but for me it's a shallow and jaundiced take.
    No I am not viewing past efforts as "selling their soul".

    I am saying their current stance is because they've sold their soul. The objection isn't to what they've done in the past, its to what they are [not] doing today.

    Can't you understand that?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,629

    I am aware of that but Putin has changed everything
    Has it changed our poltical mindset though.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,777

    Ultimately, Putin will lose. He’s trying to destroy an idea “Ukraine” in the name of an idea that failed, It may take a while, but history and time are against him. In the meantime we must do all we can to raise the cost to Russia of his folly. While the UK and US have stopped clearing of their currencies (you can get round SWIFT, you can’t evade a ban on clearing) the EU has yet to do the same. It would also be nice if some of them were to ban Russian flights and accept the pain that retaliation will bring. Next step would be to refuse flights that have overflown Russia - so China & Japan share the pain too.

    Who can actually ban Euro clearing?
  • No I am not viewing past efforts as "selling their soul".

    I am saying their current stance is because they've sold their soul. The objection isn't to what they've done in the past, its to what they are [not] doing today.

    Can't you understand that?

    Has any Western country so far imposed sanctions on the Russians that will cause it any meaningful pain? If we are asking the Germans to do that, shouldn't we be prepared to do it, too?

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,777

    Putin calls Biden and says "our scientists have discovered a newspaper from the year 2100 and it says the US is no longer a superpower" Biden responds "our scientists have also discovered a newspaper from the year 2100, and it says there are skirmishes on the Chino- Finnish border".
    Putin and Biden decided to have a running race around the Kremlin which Biden won.

    Russian media reported that Putin came second while Biden was next to last.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    They have bought the gas, using money, to heat and light their houses. Souls form no part of the transaction.
    Unless Russian gas is made from Dead Souls?!
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Taz said:

    Has it changed our poltical mindset though.
    The main parties? No.

    The electorate? who knows.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    There was a very interesting al jazeera documentary a few months ago where they posed as a dodgy Chinese businessman with criminal convictions and showed how he was still able to get to the stage of being able to buy Derby County.

    It got zero coverage in the media here, despite a central claim of dodgy Cypriot passport scheme they exposed on camera, being shown to be 100% true and those shown on camera being later forced out of positions.

    The Men Who Sell Football | Al Jazeera Investigations
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldgTCXpDEgk
    The FA make it quite clear, over Thaskin, that there is only one thing to disqualify an owner.

    Being poor.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Russians have yet to make the decisive breakthrough in Ukraine. They will do so eventually, but despite overwhelming numbers they seem to be making heavy weather of it. I wonder if military leaders would countenance an attack on a NATO member state, even if Putin wanted it to happen.

    'I Don't Know Why He's There': Russian Mothers Say Soldiers Tricked Into Going to Ukraine
    Russian law prohibits conscripts from being sent to the front unless they choose to sign a contract and become career soldiers. But in Ukraine, 'there are a lot of draftees. None of them signed up'

    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-why-is-he-there-russian-mothers-say-soldiers-tricked-into-going-to-ukraine-1.10633865

    What?

    I thought everybody thought conscripts were a useless pita in a shooting war anyway? Why are they even there Is it possible that Putin had Sadaam's problem, that his army is shit and nobody wants to tell him?
  • ydoethur said:

    Johnson, Trump, Putin, Xi and Bolsonaro are on a plane together. The plane crashes. Who is saved?

    The rest of us...
    Reminds me of a joke.

    "Trump and Putin die in the same plane crash and go to hell. The devil greets them and says to help them settle in he'll give them one wish.

    Trump asks if he can carry on speaking to his underlings in the Trump organisation. The devil says sure and points to a pay phone in the corner. "You can use that but it'll cost you £100 a minute ".

    Putin asks is he can carry on speaking to his secret service in Russia. The devil points to the pay phone and says calls will be 10p a minute. "Why so cheap" asks Putin. The devil smiles and says "Because it's a local call".
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Unless Russian gas is made from Dead Souls?!
    I listened to some of that on r4 a year or two ago and keep meaning to read it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    Without Russian occupation, if they withdraw then a Lukashenko type will struggle to hold on to power in Ukraine.

    The population is very well armed now to defend themselves.
    But it would keep it continually destabilised. That's enough.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    No I am not viewing past efforts as "selling their soul".

    I am saying their current stance is because they've sold their soul. The objection isn't to what they've done in the past, its to what they are [not] doing today.

    Can't you understand that?
    So the gas/money transaction becomes a gas/souls transaction retrospectively, spooky backwards in time kinda thing?

    I watched Looper yesterday. Meh, the Willis character is too much of a shit and the plot is too Terminator. Also can't decide if the spooky little boy is also the other two.
  • Mr. eek, good.

    Vettel took a principled line on this yesterday when asked at the press conference for his views.
This discussion has been closed.