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Powerful front pages following Putin’s aggression – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,622
edited March 2022 in General
imagePowerful front pages following Putin’s aggression – politicalbetting.com

No doubt at all what dominates the papers this morning and each one covers in their own way Putin’s use of force to take over a European democracy.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Clearly the sanctions need to be tougher - the EU in particular, hamstruing by Germany, Italy and some others need to get a grip Swiftly - to coin a phrase.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,000
    So what’s the end game a year from now? Expensive & bloody to control & pacify. Not welcomed as liberators. But he can’t be seen to lose and retreat, at least not yet.

    Seems to me he’ll keep the bits of the east and Black Sea coast he wants. And as for the rest, he will set out to deliberately make it an unliveable and ungovernable mess, believing that a tide of instability will then crash west.

    My only pause is his misplaced ethno-romantic attachment to Kiev…perhaps west of there is where his line gets drawn. Halves the territory to control.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    To keep further sanctions in the locker if we need them is plain idiotic after the illegal violent aggression of yesterday.

    Putin is completely transfixed by fear of such alarmingly genteel sanctions.

    Absoloute cowardly selfish tossers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    felix said:

    Clearly the sanctions need to be tougher - the EU in particular, hamstruing by Germany, Italy and some others need to get a grip Swiftly - to coin a phrase.

    The threads were full of condemnation for the UK's 'weak sanctions' the other day... be interesting to see how today goes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,857
    edited February 2022
    Germany and Italy don't want to eject Russia from SWIFT according to reports.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/24/ukraine-swift-sanctions-germany-russia-ban/
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Konstantin Kisin did a couple of absolutely brilliant podcasts yesterday. His take on the situation is exactly right - the west is facing an existential crisis, but is living in a dreamworld. Will we wake up?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PN5Zmq9YTUs

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNnq8gMAE-8 (starts about 20 minutes in)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JS, an axis of stupidity from Germany and Italy.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    edited February 2022
    A weak Germany scared beyond belief by it's past.

    Stop pussyfooting about and do it, complete isolation in all forms for Russia. If we won't commit militarily we have to make it as uncomfortable for the Russia people and let that anger and hate from the populace overthrow this vile piece of shit.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Grim beyond measure.

    Two of the most interesting pieces in this morning's news are.

    1. Growing sense that Putin has lost his marbles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/putin-russian-president-ukraine-invasion-mental-fitness

    Many of us watched his rambling speech and thought the same: he has gone doolally. (Also when I realised he would invade.)

    2. Large numbers of Russians vociferously and quietly opposed to the lunatic's invasion

    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-police-arrest-more-than-1-700-anti-war-protesters-in-russia-as-anger-erupts-over-invasion-12550653

    The Telegraph are suggesting this may end Putin's reign although I suspect that's wishful thinking.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/02/24/vladimir-putin-may-just-have-made-error-ends-bloody-rule/




  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin is said to have been deeply affected by the way Muammar Qaddafi was killed. He watched the video of a bloodied Qaddafi dragged from his bunker, sodomized, and shot—over and over and over again. He thinks he is doing everything to avoid a similar fate. He's doing the opposite

    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1497069692506329088?s=21

    If the scumbag can't suppress Ukraine quickly then he's going to be in serious trouble - and, if the Ukrainians keep fighting like they are now, he may well find that impossible. Trying to pass this intervention off as a peacekeeping effort to save the Ukrainian people from a bunch of Nazis is going to be a hard sell at home if the Ukrainian people persist in slaughtering his troops and thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of Russian families find themselves mourning their sons.

    Ukraine covers over 600,000km². If Putin funnelled every soldier in Russia into it, that still might not be enough to defeat a bloody insurgency. We also have to consider the possibility that a substantial fraction of Russia's entire conventional military capability - both men and materiel - will be destroyed in this conflict. If and when the Russian army's professional troops start to become degraded and overstretched, the Kremlin will be increasingly forced to plug the gaps with its abused and pitiful conscripts. That is unlikely to end well for Putin, either.

    Ukraine is outgunned and much of it will end up in ruins as this war progresses, but the country is very far from finished.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    pigeon said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin is said to have been deeply affected by the way Muammar Qaddafi was killed. He watched the video of a bloodied Qaddafi dragged from his bunker, sodomized, and shot—over and over and over again. He thinks he is doing everything to avoid a similar fate. He's doing the opposite

    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1497069692506329088?s=21


    Ukraine is outgunned and much of it will end up in ruins as this war progresses, but the country is very far from finished.
    I hope you're right but I fear this will be over very, very, quickly.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Andy_JS said:

    Germany and Italy don't want to eject Russia from SWIFT according to reports.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/24/ukraine-swift-sanctions-germany-russia-ban/

    They're bricking it over the cost of living: a ban on bank transfers means they can't pay for their Russian energy so the flow stops. Simple as that.

    On that general topic, Ukraine itself could substantially disrupt gas supplies by destroying sections of the pipelines that traverse its territory, and frankly one wonders why they haven't done that yet. Indeed, Poland and Slovakia could choke off everything except Nord Stream 1 by the simple expedient of closing a few valves...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,789
    Another day, more anger
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin is said to have been deeply affected by the way Muammar Qaddafi was killed. He watched the video of a bloodied Qaddafi dragged from his bunker, sodomized, and shot—over and over and over again. He thinks he is doing everything to avoid a similar fate. He's doing the opposite

    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1497069692506329088?s=21

    Ukraine is outgunned and much of it will end up in ruins as this war progresses, but the country is very far from finished.
    I hope you're right but I fear this will be over very, very, quickly.
    We are both guessing, obviously, but the early signs are encouraging. The Ukrainians have fight in them, and we need to remember that Russia is powerful but it's hardly invincible.

    The Soviet Union was bigger, nastier and stronger than the Russian Federation and it still couldn't beat Afghanistan - and Afghanistan wasn't sat immediately next door to NATO, with its effectively inexhaustible conveyer belt of weaponry that's presumably available to the Ukrainian Government on a "buy now, don't worry about paying later" basis.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Heathener said:

    When a commercial airliner MH17 was shot down by Putin's men, 283 people were killed including 80 children.

    We chuntered, we moaned, but we still allowed Putin's Russian money to flow through London. Where were the UK calls then to ban them from SWIFT?

    Instead Boris Johnson played tennis with the wife of one of Putin's mafia for a £160,000 donation to the tory party.

    So easy to condemn other countries. To pick the speck out of their eyes and miss the bloody great plank which has been in our own for years.

    The UK are utter hypocrites. Conservatives especially so.

    Of course the 2 situations are direct exact parallels and the UK was the only country in the world not calling for the Swift ban. Yes siree! Of course it was. Go heathen.. :)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited February 2022
    Tory ducking and weaving over Putin's Russia has gone on for years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/21/russia-report-reveals-uk-government-failed-to-address-kremlin-interference-scottish-referendum-brexit

    It stinks
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited February 2022
    So far, it seems, no Western country has committed to any sanctions that may cause any serious harm to itself. All could and should be doing so much more. This was always going to be the case, unfortunately. Putin has always understood this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,026
    Increasingly convinced this is a terrible, possibly fatal error by Putin

    And in President Zelinskiy the Ukrainians have a hero
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin is said to have been deeply affected by the way Muammar Qaddafi was killed. He watched the video of a bloodied Qaddafi dragged from his bunker, sodomized, and shot—over and over and over again. He thinks he is doing everything to avoid a similar fate. He's doing the opposite

    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1497069692506329088?s=21

    Ukraine is outgunned and much of it will end up in ruins as this war progresses, but the country is very far from finished.
    I hope you're right but I fear this will be over very, very, quickly.
    We are both guessing, obviously, but the early signs are encouraging. The Ukrainians have fight in them, and we need to remember that Russia is powerful but it's hardly invincible.

    The Soviet Union was bigger, nastier and stronger than the Russian Federation and it still couldn't beat Afghanistan - and Afghanistan wasn't sat immediately next door to NATO, with its effectively inexhaustible conveyer belt of weaponry that's presumably available to the Ukrainian Government on a "buy now, don't worry about paying later" basis.
    I really hope you're right
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin is said to have been deeply affected by the way Muammar Qaddafi was killed. He watched the video of a bloodied Qaddafi dragged from his bunker, sodomized, and shot—over and over and over again. He thinks he is doing everything to avoid a similar fate. He's doing the opposite

    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1497069692506329088?s=21

    Ukraine is outgunned and much of it will end up in ruins as this war progresses, but the country is very far from finished.
    I hope you're right but I fear this will be over very, very, quickly.
    We are both guessing, obviously, but the early signs are encouraging. The Ukrainians have fight in them, and we need to remember that Russia is powerful but it's hardly invincible.

    The Soviet Union was bigger, nastier and stronger than the Russian Federation and it still couldn't beat Afghanistan - and Afghanistan wasn't sat immediately next door to NATO, with its effectively inexhaustible conveyer belt of weaponry that's presumably available to the Ukrainian Government on a "buy now, don't worry about paying later" basis.
    Of course Germany continues to refuse point blank to allow anything remotely combative to be sent from there..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,479
    Good morning one and all. Sombre times. No way can Ukraine 'win', I fear. But Putin himself may well not either.
    I hope.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Leon said:

    Increasingly convinced this is a terrible, possibly fatal error by Putin

    And in President Zelinskiy the Ukrainians have a hero

    I worry for the man's personal safety. This conflict could easily do for both of them.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    My own conclusion is that all I can do at the moment is give money to the Ukrainians fighting Putin. Feels a bit pathetic in the scheme of things, but it is at least something that may make a bit of a difference. We have directly caused this situation by our own cowardice and decadance. Giving money is hardly as dangerous as protesting on the streets of Moscow or taking up arms in Kiev. We can't just rely on our government to sort this mess out, they won't, although fortunately they are on the right side of the arguments.

    I would encourage others reading PB to do the same. I will check out the organisations that have been set up for this purpose (the ones I have linked to already were recommended by a respected QC on Linkedin) and keep you updated, assuming that is ok with the sites owners?

    The hope has to be that Putin's mission in Ukraine is a failure, and he ultimately gets overthrown by his own people. At the moment, this is perhaps the most important cause of our lifetimes.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Farooq said:

    Good luck to the Russian protesters, and kudos to you too.

    I remember attending a few marches in 2003 to protest against the UK's grotesque invasion of Iraq, but this feels bigger and it is certainly in a much more oppressive environment. The Russian protesters are braver than I needed to be in 2003.

    I find your comparison of the two protests a bit grotesque.
    That’s OK. We find far-right Tories grotesque, so I’d be disappointed if the feeling wasn’t mutual.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Shocking poll from Spain where amidst the travails of the centre right PP they sink to 3rd place with the extreme right wing VOX 6 points ahead of threm in clear second and snapping at the heels of PSOE. Not quite clear how this is going to play out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,857
    edited February 2022
    darkage said:

    Konstantin Kisin did a couple of absolutely brilliant podcasts yesterday. His take on the situation is exactly right - the west is facing an existential crisis, but is living in a dreamworld. Will we wake up?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PN5Zmq9YTUs

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNnq8gMAE-8 (starts about 20 minutes in)

    Top notch analysis from Kisin. Recommended viewing.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited February 2022
    felix said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Yokes said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    BERLIN, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Cutting off Russia from the SWIFT global interbank payment system should not be part of the second EU sanctions package against Russia that EU leaders will decide upon at a meeting on Thursday in Brussels, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-should-not-be-cut-off-swift-moment-germanys-scholz-2022-02-24/


    What more does Russia have to do?

    Reportedly its the Germans and the Italians who are the holdouts on this. Nice to see the old Axis powers sticking together.
    Nice smear James. A European democracy being invaded as we speak by an evil totalitarian empire, and you are calling two allied centrist European democracies fascists.

    Where do the secret services find folk like you? Less tap on the shoulder and more hire the online loony.
    Hey, he's just giving them the treatment you give England the English ... ;)
    Yes at least most pro EU posters have the decency to stay quiet about the latest EU shambles wrt Ukraine. Germany and Italy ought to be hanging their heads in shame. Not quite sure what the Baltic states are likely to make of it all. While Finland - outside NATO might well be feeling especially queazy..
    What makes us centrist, pro-democracy, pro-European folk “queasy” is the formerly fairly respectable Conservative & Unionist Party being thoroughly hijacked by repulsive far-right populists determined to hinder European cooperation and teamwork.

    Brexit is an evil. The harm it does has only just started. It was one of Putin’s greatest triumphs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,664
    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,965
    SouthamObserver said:

    So far, it seems, no Western country has committed to any sanctions that may cause any serious harm to itself. All could and should be doing so much more. This was always going to be the case, unfortunately. Putin has always understood this.

    Surely we need to cease all business with them. Immediately. Ban all flights, stop issuing visas to Russians, ban all imports and exports.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,026
    edited February 2022

    What makes us centrist, pro-democracy, pro-European folk “queasy” is the formerly fairly respectable Conservative & Unionist Party being thoroughly hijacked by repulsive far-right populists determined to hinder European cooperation and teamwork.

    Brexit is an evil. The harm it does has only just started. It was one of Putin’s greatest triumphs.

    Ffs you wanted a YES vote in 2014. A vote which would have immediately expelled Scotland from the EU, with no clear route back. Just shut the fuck up
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    Mr Dancer. We’re the good guys.

    We know we’re the good guys, you know we’re the good guys, we know you know we’re the good guys, we know you know we know we’re the good guys. But still you lie.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,479
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    Mr D, I don't think any rational nationalist ..... yeah, OK, but I think that's the majority .... wanted to leave both the UK and the EU. UK yes, but not the EU. Part of the appeal now I understand is that an independent Scotland would rejoin.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,515
    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,335
    Putin has lost his marbles - and given his access to the nuclear codes it's worrying that we can now conceive circumstances in which he'd push the button.

    I think fairly soon they'll install a puppet regime in the Ukraine, but a debilitating insurgency will tie the Russians down for however long they stay - and the puppet govt will need massive troop support to keep it in place. Added to which they need to keep the lid on Belarus, and possibly large street protests at home.

    I think our best hope is for a palace coup led by Sergei Lavrov, or whoever.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Biden's centerist melts hit peak centerist melt

    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496953514387464196?t=PVUTmNfEcqe-bRUrbxMDYQ&s=19
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    OldKingCole said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    Mr D, I don't think any rational nationalist ..... yeah, OK, but I think that's the majority .... wanted to leave both the UK and the EU. UK yes, but not the EU. Part of the appeal now I understand is that an independent Scotland would rejoin.
    Of many, many BetterTogether fibs, one of the biggest was that a vote for Yes was a vote to leave the EU. The enormity of the fib was very clearly exposed 2 years later.

    And yet they still try their luck.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,664
    Lol, Ukraine's tragedy is a Scottish Yoon's opportunity to whine about the Paddys.


  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    OldKingCole said:

    Good morning one and all. Sombre times. No way can Ukraine 'win', I fear. But Putin himself may well not either.
    I hope.

    I just wonder whether Putin has anything akin to the old Soviet leaders' Communist ideology or Hitler's Nazi ideology to lean on. In other words, if Putin stepped under a bus (or a tank) tomorrow, would there be an eager crowd of Putinists burning to continue his mission, or would there just be a rabble of shabby gangsters running for cover?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,664
    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
    Perhaps the people who habitually use these terms could draw up a list for clarification.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    King Cole, had Scotland voted to leave the UK it would have left the EU at the same time.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,515
    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
    Perhaps the people who habitually use these terms could draw up a list for clarification.
    I don't think I've used those terms on here, personally.

    Aside from 'scum'. But I'm in good company with Labour's front bench there... ;)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,479
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Lol, Ukraine's tragedy is a Scottish Yoon's opportunity to whine about the Paddys.


    There are comparisons which can be drawn, I suppose, but Rep of Ireland analogous with Putin's Russia!
    On the far edge of fantasy. RoI as Ukraine, perhaps, in SF minds.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Spot on.

    The modern iteration of the Conservative Party is utterly repulsive. They have far more in common with Putin than they care to admit. Luckily we have something Putin’s internal opponents largely lack: the ballot box. Register everyone to vote dear folks! The battle with the forces of evil looms.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,026
    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    I suspect that Putin would encourage Sindy too, as he did with Brexit. A major theme of his foreign policy is to foment internal division in Western countries. Hence his troll farms being anti-woke too.

    It doesn't invalidate the legitimacy of the issue, whether Brexit or Sindy, or BLM, but we should be aware of Putin's manipulations, and decide issues on their own merits.
    Putin also foments Wokeness, on the Woke side. Of course you fastidiously pretend otherwise
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    edited February 2022
    ThomasNashe said:

    Putin has lost his marbles - and given his access to the nuclear codes it's worrying that we can now conceive circumstances in which he'd push the button.

    I think fairly soon they'll install a puppet regime in the Ukraine, but a debilitating insurgency will tie the Russians down for however long they stay - and the puppet govt will need massive troop support to keep it in place. Added to which they need to keep the lid on Belarus, and possibly large street protests at home.

    I think our best hope is for a palace coup led by Sergei Lavrov, or whoever.

    Yes, it needs an inside job, but I don't think Lavrov's the man. There will be a lot of unease internally, and they will know that Putin's behaviour is looking erratic. That can be one of the only explanations why he needs to keep issuing these videos of "holding officials to account and seeking clarifications", ostensibly just meetings.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,335
    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
    Perhaps the people who habitually use these terms could draw up a list for clarification.
    I don't think I've used those terms on here, personally.

    Aside from 'scum'. But I'm in good company with Labour's front bench there... ;)
    Though she has quite rightly acknowledged that she was wrong to use the term.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited February 2022
    FrankBooth said:

    Leon said:

    Increasingly convinced this is a terrible, possibly fatal error by Putin

    And in President Zelinskiy the Ukrainians have a hero

    I worry for the man's personal safety. This conflict could easily do for both of them.
    He is a good leader. There were quite a few people in Ukraine who lost their lives yesterday instead of surrendering. They are ultimately fighting to protect our own way of life, because we don't have the resolve to do so, and hopefully they will succeed against all the odds as is sometimes the case in these wars.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,681
    edited February 2022
    Gallowgate said:

    felix said:

    Heathener said:

    When a commercial airliner MH17 was shot down by Putin's men, 283 people were killed including 80 children.

    We chuntered, we moaned, but we still allowed Putin's Russian money to flow through London. Where were the UK calls then to ban them from SWIFT?

    Instead Boris Johnson played tennis with the wife of one of Putin's mafia for a £160,000 donation to the tory party.

    So easy to condemn other countries. To pick the speck out of their eyes and miss the bloody great plank which has been in our own for years.

    The UK are utter hypocrites. Conservatives especially so.

    Of course the 2 situations are direct exact parallels and the UK was the only country in the world not calling for the Swift ban. Yes siree! Of course it was. Go heathen.. :)
    Can you not please?

    The following are probably simultaneously correct:

    1. Russia should be kicked out of Swift.
    2. British political parties should reconsider accepting donations from Russian oligarchs.
    Why do the rest not just say F*** Germany and Italy we are out, make them pariahs
    PS: clear out the Tory stables while we are at it
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    JohnLilburne said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So far, it seems, no Western country has committed to any sanctions that may cause any serious harm to itself. All could and should be doing so much more. This was always going to be the case, unfortunately. Putin has always understood this.

    Surely we need to cease all business with them. Immediately. Ban all flights, stop issuing visas to Russians, ban all imports and exports.

    Yes - but that’s too painful, so it won’t happen. Forget all the bollocks about wanting to hold measures back, the simple truth is that no country is going to impose sanctions that will cause any meaningful additional harm to itself.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,335
    OldKingCole said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Lol, Ukraine's tragedy is a Scottish Yoon's opportunity to whine about the Paddys.


    There are comparisons which can be drawn, I suppose, but Rep of Ireland analogous with Putin's Russia!
    On the far edge of fantasy. RoI as Ukraine, perhaps, in SF minds.
    One does wonder what his Ph.D was in: self-awareness failures?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,664
    WhisperingOracle said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Putin has lost his marbles - and given his access to the nuclear codes it's worrying that we can now conceive circumstances in which he'd push the button.

    I think fairly soon they'll install a puppet regime in the Ukraine, but a debilitating insurgency will tie the Russians down for however long they stay - and the puppet govt will need massive troop support to keep it in place. Added to which they need to keep the lid on Belarus, and possibly large street protests at home.

    I think our best hope is for a palace coup led by Sergei Lavrov, or whoever.

    Yes, it needs an inside job, but I don't think Lavrov's the man. There will be a lot of unease internally, and they will know that Putin's behaviour is looking erratic ; hence he needs to keep issuing these public videos of "holding his top people to account and seeking explanations", ostensibly just meetings.
    I hope Iannucci is working on a Death of Putin script..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,026
    Massive bombing of a European capital. Any moment now. Putin must not survive this


    #Russian bombers have crossed the Northern #Belarus'ian border near #Gomel and are enroute to the Ukrainian Capital Kyiv, they should be arriving in the next 15 minutes, citizens are being urged to get to Bomb Shelters Immediately | EMPR #Ukraine #russianinvasion #Russia

    https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status/1497104458475528193?s=21
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,573
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    I suspect that Putin would encourage Sindy too, as he did with Brexit. A major theme of his foreign policy is to foment internal division in Western countries. Hence his troll farms being anti-woke too.

    It doesn't invalidate the legitimacy of the issue, whether Brexit or Sindy, or BLM, but we should be aware of Putin's manipulations, and decide issues on their own merits.
    Putin also foments Wokeness, on the Woke side. Of course you fastidiously pretend otherwise
    Are you still a fan of Putins War on Woke?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    I feel that arguing over the level of sanctions is kinda irrelevant in the circumstances of standing by and watching Ukrainians fight and die.

    Chances are that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will join many of his fellow Ukrainians among the dead before International Women's Day, if not by the end of February. I get a sense from his latest statements that he knows this and that he feels betrayed by being left to face Russian aggression alone.

    If we don't want the shame of abandoning Ukraine to be followed by the shame of abandoning another country then we have to get ready to fight. Not spending money on the Russian army (via oil and gas purchases) would be useful, but we have to spend money on our own capabilities, and we have to be prepared to suffer heavy losses to check the Russian advance - and China too.

    Maximum sanctions should be the easy bit. Which politician is even talking about doing what is necessary?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,387
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    I suspect that Putin would encourage Sindy too, as he did with Brexit. A major theme of his foreign policy is to foment internal division in Western countries. Hence his troll farms being anti-woke too.

    It doesn't invalidate the legitimacy of the issue, whether Brexit or Sindy, or BLM, but we should be aware of Putin's manipulations, and decide issues on their own merits.
    Putin also foments Wokeness, on the Woke side. Of course you fastidiously pretend otherwise
    Heck, Putin probably has a Reasonable Centrist Dad department in one of his troll farms. Sowing as many divisions as possible is what he does.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,515
    ThomasNashe said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
    Perhaps the people who habitually use these terms could draw up a list for clarification.
    I don't think I've used those terms on here, personally.

    Aside from 'scum'. But I'm in good company with Labour's front bench there... ;)
    Though she has quite rightly acknowledged that she was wrong to use the term.
    From my memory of that, it was a fair while after, during which period she refused to admit she was wrong.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Lol, Ukraine's tragedy is a Scottish Yoon's opportunity to whine about the Paddys.


    Astonishing. Russia's actions towards Ukraine being likened to Ireland's historical actions towards Britain???

    I'd have said making Putin look sane was an impossible task, but in comparison this does it.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,335
    JosiasJessop said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
    Perhaps the people who habitually use these terms could draw up a list for clarification.
    I don't think I've used those terms on here, personally.

    Aside from 'scum'. But I'm in good company with Labour's front bench there... ;)
    Though she has quite rightly acknowledged that she was wrong to use the term.
    From my memory of that, it was a fair while after, during which period she refused to admit she was wrong.
    True. But she did get there in the end - and her apology was refreshingly free of self-justification.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited February 2022
    Gallowgate said:

    Still feels like our response is fucking impotent

    Decades of depriving the proper armed forces of finance in order to fund unusable mental mass murder toys.

    Don’t say you weren’t told. Countless senior officers are on record.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    ThomasNashe said:

    Putin has lost his marbles - and given his access to the nuclear codes it's worrying that we can now conceive circumstances in which he'd push the button.

    I think fairly soon they'll install a puppet regime in the Ukraine, but a debilitating insurgency will tie the Russians down for however long they stay - and the puppet govt will need massive troop support to keep it in place. Added to which they need to keep the lid on Belarus, and possibly large street protests at home.

    I think our best hope is for a palace coup led by Sergei Lavrov, or whoever.

    The Russians have proved very good at keeping a lid on dissent in Russia. They seem prepared to target all the potential leaders of a sustained resistance. It's quite possible that a majority of those most opposed to the Russians end up either dead, imprisoned or in Poland.

    I'm not convinced there will be a major insurgency.

    This is not to doubt the will of Ukrainians to resist, or their courage, but I think an insurgency is not all that easy to sustain, and the Russians will be prepared to be a lot more brutal than the Americans.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,573
    SouthamObserver said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So far, it seems, no Western country has committed to any sanctions that may cause any serious harm to itself. All could and should be doing so much more. This was always going to be the case, unfortunately. Putin has always understood this.

    Surely we need to cease all business with them. Immediately. Ban all flights, stop issuing visas to Russians, ban all imports and exports.

    Yes - but that’s too painful, so it won’t happen. Forget all the bollocks about wanting to hold measures back, the simple truth is that no country is going to impose sanctions that will cause any meaningful additional harm to itself.

    Cutting off SWIFT does have implications, and while quite likely to damage the Russian economy further, may well be no more effective than sanctioning banks. One important side effect might be the growth of the Chinese alternative.

    I think it should probably be done, but it isn't the simple answer that people want.

    https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/02/25/why-the-west-is-reluctant-to-deny-russian-banks-access-to-swift
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,515
    ThomasNashe said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
    Perhaps the people who habitually use these terms could draw up a list for clarification.
    I don't think I've used those terms on here, personally.

    Aside from 'scum'. But I'm in good company with Labour's front bench there... ;)
    Though she has quite rightly acknowledged that she was wrong to use the term.
    From my memory of that, it was a fair while after, during which period she refused to admit she was wrong.
    True. But she did get there in the end - and her apology was refreshingly free of self-justification.
    IMV it was too little, too late. If she had been a Conservative, would you have been quite so forgiving of what was evidently a forced apology?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    I suspect that Putin would encourage Sindy too, as he did with Brexit. A major theme of his foreign policy is to foment internal division in Western countries. Hence his troll farms being anti-woke too.

    It doesn't invalidate the legitimacy of the issue, whether Brexit or Sindy, or BLM, but we should be aware of Putin's manipulations, and decide issues on their own merits.
    Putin also foments Wokeness, on the Woke side. Of course you fastidiously pretend otherwise
    Are you still a fan of Putins War on Woke?
    I’ll answer that for him: of course Sean is. The enemy of Sean’s enemy is Sean’s friend.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,610
    Damn gutsy people, the Ukrainians. If their resistance hastens the end of Putin in the Kremlin, then the world will owe them a huge debt of gratitude.

    They stand at the opposite end of the spectrum of regard than those spineless, self-centred leaders within the EU. Today more than ever, I am relieved we are now unshackled from that moral vacuum.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,729
    edited February 2022
    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin is said to have been deeply affected by the way Muammar Qaddafi was killed. He watched the video of a bloodied Qaddafi dragged from his bunker, sodomized, and shot—over and over and over again. He thinks he is doing everything to avoid a similar fate. He's doing the opposite

    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1497069692506329088?s=21

    Ukraine is outgunned and much of it will end up in ruins as this war progresses, but the country is very far from finished.
    I hope you're right but I fear this will be over very, very, quickly.
    We are both guessing, obviously, but the early signs are encouraging. The Ukrainians have fight in them, and we need to remember that Russia is powerful but it's hardly invincible.

    The Soviet Union was bigger, nastier and stronger than the Russian Federation and it still couldn't beat Afghanistan - and Afghanistan wasn't sat immediately next door to NATO, with its effectively inexhaustible conveyer belt of weaponry that's presumably available to the Ukrainian Government on a "buy now, don't worry about paying later" basis.
    Russia can infiltrate every organ of the Ukranian state (or the resistance movement after the defeat) without any significant cultural or linguistic barriers. In that sense it is easier to occupy than Afghanistan. It'll be more like the English occupation of the 6 counties and we kept that up for a good long while.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Stuartinromford said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    I suspect that Putin would encourage Sindy too, as he did with Brexit. A major theme of his foreign policy is to foment internal division in Western countries. Hence his troll farms being anti-woke too.

    It doesn't invalidate the legitimacy of the issue, whether Brexit or Sindy, or BLM, but we should be aware of Putin's manipulations, and decide issues on their own merits.
    Putin also foments Wokeness, on the Woke side. Of course you fastidiously pretend otherwise
    Heck, Putin probably has a Reasonable Centrist Dad department in one of his troll farms. Sowing as many divisions as possible is what he does.
    The UK is doing just fine at ripping itself apart. It doesn’t need any external assistance.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,573
    JosiasJessop said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
    Perhaps the people who habitually use these terms could draw up a list for clarification.
    I don't think I've used those terms on here, personally.

    Aside from 'scum'. But I'm in good company with Labour's front bench there... ;)
    Though she has quite rightly acknowledged that she was wrong to use the term.
    From my memory of that, it was a fair while after, during which period she refused to admit she was wrong.
    Yes, but when she had reflected, her apology was unusually sincere for a front line politician.

    BBC News - Angela Rayner 'unreservedly' apologises for Conservative 'scum' comments
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59081482
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,112
    Gallowgate said:

    One thing that is for sure is that Ukrainians are a very brave people and from my amateur eyes are doing a fine job in defence considering the circumstances.

    And their leaders put ours to shame.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    edited February 2022
    MarqueeMark said:

    Damn gutsy people, the Ukrainians. If their resistance hastens the end of Putin in the Kremlin, then the world will owe them a huge debt of gratitude.

    They stand at the opposite end of the spectrum of regard than those spineless, self-centred leaders within the EU. Today more than ever, I am relieved we are now unshackled from that moral vacuum.

    Macron has performed better than Johnson, I would say personally. I can't see what lasting impact Johnson and Truss with all their arm waving have made, anywhere in this crisis.

    Biden has provided accurate intelligence ; Macron has kept a channel of communication open. That's about it, as far as I can see.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,335
    edited February 2022
    JosiasJessop said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
    Perhaps the people who habitually use these terms could draw up a list for clarification.
    I don't think I've used those terms on here, personally.

    Aside from 'scum'. But I'm in good company with Labour's front bench there... ;)
    Though she has quite rightly acknowledged that she was wrong to use the term.
    From my memory of that, it was a fair while after, during which period she refused to admit she was wrong.
    True. But she did get there in the end - and her apology was refreshingly free of self-justification.
    IMV it was too little, too late. If she had been a Conservative, would you have been quite so forgiving of what was evidently a forced apology?
    I felt it was sincere. And yes, I would.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    WhisperingOracle said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Damn gutsy people, the Ukrainians. If their resistance hastens the end of Putin in the Kremlin, then the world will owe them a huge debt of gratitude.

    They stand at the opposite end of the spectrum of regard than those spineless, self-centred leaders within the EU. Today more than ever, I am relieved we are now unshackled from that moral vacuum.

    Macron has performed better than Johnson, I would say personally. I can't see what lasting impact Johnson and Truss with all their arm-waving have made anywhere.
    Macron is the big boy in the room. Johnson is an utter disgrace.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,112
    JosiasJessop said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Heathener said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    If you are a European leader at this time, history will not judge you by your short-term responses. You will be judged by the long-term consequences of your actions. You may think you're saving yourself a billion here, a billion there, but the consequences of not acting hard now will cost much more in the longer run.

    And the costs will not just be financial.

    I'd take this coming from Britain a bit more seriously if we hadn't succoured Putin and his cronies in London for such a long time.

    The Conservative Party has blood on its hands.
    Oh, do fuck off comrade.

    The person with blood on his hands is Putin.
    Wait a minute, surely we Putinist enablers, appeasers, scum and all too equivocal virtue signallers also have blood on our hands?
    Do you see yourself as a Putinist enabler, appeaser, scum and all too equivocal virtue signaller?

    I wouldn't personally have put you in those categories, but if you think so... ;)
    Perhaps the people who habitually use these terms could draw up a list for clarification.
    I don't think I've used those terms on here, personally.

    Aside from 'scum'. But I'm in good company with Labour's front bench there... ;)
    Though she has quite rightly acknowledged that she was wrong to use the term.
    From my memory of that, it was a fair while after, during which period she refused to admit she was wrong.
    True. But she did get there in the end - and her apology was refreshingly free of self-justification.
    IMV it was too little, too late. If she had been a Conservative, would you have been quite so forgiving of what was evidently a forced apology?
    How many of us have showed ourselves ready to admit unreservedly we were wrong ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,573
    LostPassword said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Putin has lost his marbles - and given his access to the nuclear codes it's worrying that we can now conceive circumstances in which he'd push the button.

    I think fairly soon they'll install a puppet regime in the Ukraine, but a debilitating insurgency will tie the Russians down for however long they stay - and the puppet govt will need massive troop support to keep it in place. Added to which they need to keep the lid on Belarus, and possibly large street protests at home.

    I think our best hope is for a palace coup led by Sergei Lavrov, or whoever.

    The Russians have proved very good at keeping a lid on dissent in Russia. They seem prepared to target all the potential leaders of a sustained resistance. It's quite possible that a majority of those most opposed to the Russians end up either dead, imprisoned or in Poland.

    I'm not convinced there will be a major insurgency.

    This is not to doubt the will of Ukrainians to resist, or their courage, but I think an insurgency is not all that easy to sustain, and the Russians will be prepared to be a lot more brutal than the Americans.
    Worth noting that the massive protests in Belarus were completely suppressed, so Russia can do the same.

    Putin will go by internal political intrigue, not mass uprising.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,026
    Dura_Ace said:

    pigeon said:

    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Putin is said to have been deeply affected by the way Muammar Qaddafi was killed. He watched the video of a bloodied Qaddafi dragged from his bunker, sodomized, and shot—over and over and over again. He thinks he is doing everything to avoid a similar fate. He's doing the opposite

    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1497069692506329088?s=21

    Ukraine is outgunned and much of it will end up in ruins as this war progresses, but the country is very far from finished.
    I hope you're right but I fear this will be over very, very, quickly.
    We are both guessing, obviously, but the early signs are encouraging. The Ukrainians have fight in them, and we need to remember that Russia is powerful but it's hardly invincible.

    The Soviet Union was bigger, nastier and stronger than the Russian Federation and it still couldn't beat Afghanistan - and Afghanistan wasn't sat immediately next door to NATO, with its effectively inexhaustible conveyer belt of weaponry that's presumably available to the Ukrainian Government on a "buy now, don't worry about paying later" basis.
    Russia can infiltrate every organ of the Ukranian state (or the resistance movement after the defeat) without any significant cultural or linguistic barriers. In that sense it is easier to occupy than Afghanistan. It'll be more like the English occupation of the 6 counties and we kept that up for a good long while.
    Yes, but at any moment France can wave a croissant at Moscow, and Putin will cease all his evil works when confronted by French cultural prowess. You told us
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Foxy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So far, it seems, no Western country has committed to any sanctions that may cause any serious harm to itself. All could and should be doing so much more. This was always going to be the case, unfortunately. Putin has always understood this.

    Surely we need to cease all business with them. Immediately. Ban all flights, stop issuing visas to Russians, ban all imports and exports.

    Yes - but that’s too painful, so it won’t happen. Forget all the bollocks about wanting to hold measures back, the simple truth is that no country is going to impose sanctions that will cause any meaningful additional harm to itself.

    Cutting off SWIFT does have implications, and while quite likely to damage the Russian economy further, may well be no more effective than sanctioning banks. One important side effect might be the growth of the Chinese alternative.

    I think it should probably be done, but it isn't the simple answer that people want.

    https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/02/25/why-the-west-is-reluctant-to-deny-russian-banks-access-to-swift

    Yes, I agree. There are SWIFT workarounds that a direct ban on transacting with Russian financial institutions avoid. But that does not mean a ban should not happen.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    Foxy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So far, it seems, no Western country has committed to any sanctions that may cause any serious harm to itself. All could and should be doing so much more. This was always going to be the case, unfortunately. Putin has always understood this.

    Surely we need to cease all business with them. Immediately. Ban all flights, stop issuing visas to Russians, ban all imports and exports.

    Yes - but that’s too painful, so it won’t happen. Forget all the bollocks about wanting to hold measures back, the simple truth is that no country is going to impose sanctions that will cause any meaningful additional harm to itself.

    Cutting off SWIFT does have implications, and while quite likely to damage the Russian economy further, may well be no more effective than sanctioning banks. One important side effect might be the growth of the Chinese alternative.

    I think it should probably be done, but it isn't the simple answer that people want.

    https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/02/25/why-the-west-is-reluctant-to-deny-russian-banks-access-to-swift
    To stop Putin I think the West need to show willing to make real sacrifices that hurt ourselves (in the short term). Cutting off Swift is a big signal that goes beyond the financial implications to Russia. It would show Western resolve and solidarity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Putin has lost his marbles - and given his access to the nuclear codes it's worrying that we can now conceive circumstances in which he'd push the button.

    I think fairly soon they'll install a puppet regime in the Ukraine, but a debilitating insurgency will tie the Russians down for however long they stay - and the puppet govt will need massive troop support to keep it in place. Added to which they need to keep the lid on Belarus, and possibly large street protests at home.

    I think our best hope is for a palace coup led by Sergei Lavrov, or whoever.

    The Russians have proved very good at keeping a lid on dissent in Russia. They seem prepared to target all the potential leaders of a sustained resistance. It's quite possible that a majority of those most opposed to the Russians end up either dead, imprisoned or in Poland.

    I'm not convinced there will be a major insurgency.

    This is not to doubt the will of Ukrainians to resist, or their courage, but I think an insurgency is not all that easy to sustain, and the Russians will be prepared to be a lot more brutal than the Americans.
    Worth noting that the massive protests in Belarus were completely suppressed, so Russia can do the same.

    Putin will go by internal political intrigue, not mass uprising.
    Unless the army mutinies. But unless the Ukrainians defeat it, that seems very unlikely.

    And it's not easy to see how the Ukrainians can defeat what's being thrown at them. The murder of those 13 soldiers in the Black Sea by the Russian warship rather grimly encapsulates the situation.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Sean_F said:


    StuartDickson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    About 75m east of Odessa..

    @visegrad24
    Initial reports are coming in of a Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson.

    To be confirmed.
    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1496963412701634561

    Yes, it does seem that the Russians have secured the crimean water supply from the Dnieper, but the Ukranians have retaken a bridge:

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1496967261864828935?t=zpANBeAN218Uleq-wqDZVg&s=19
    I really really really hope that US/UK and other willing NATO partners with effective special forces are busily supplying Ukrainian army/insurgents with everything they need to get Putin bogged down in a terrible and unwinnable war.

    This is a rare clear case of a good guy and a bad guy. Let us help the good guys and thereby fuck the bad guy
    I suspect (I don't know) that there are advisors on the ground, and maybe even some US/UK special forces in Ukrainian clothes.
    This morning Putin was pretty clear: anyone assisting Ukraine militarily was going to get nuked.
    I doubt if Putin wishes to spend the rest of his life living underground and eating tinned pineapple. So, that's a hollow threat.
    If he's terminally ill, perhaps he doesn't give a feck.
    Hence the idiocy of the “mutually-assured destruction” paradigm: it assumes that every single custodian of the nuclear button is fit and stable. In perpetuity. You don’t have to be a mathematician or a bookie to know how profoundly unlikely that is.

    1. Hiroshima
    2. Nagasaki
    3. Tbd
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,573
    Stuartinromford said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    I suspect that Putin would encourage Sindy too, as he did with Brexit. A major theme of his foreign policy is to foment internal division in Western countries. Hence his troll farms being anti-woke too.

    It doesn't invalidate the legitimacy of the issue, whether Brexit or Sindy, or BLM, but we should be aware of Putin's manipulations, and decide issues on their own merits.
    Putin also foments Wokeness, on the Woke side. Of course you fastidiously pretend otherwise
    Heck, Putin probably has a Reasonable Centrist Dad department in one of his troll farms. Sowing as many divisions as possible is what he does.
    I am sure he does. His troll farms, and the algorithms of the Social Media companies, thrive on conficts, so there has to be multiple sides.

    I don't mind being described as a "Reasonable Centrist Dad". I cannot deny any of the three words!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    StuartDickson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Sean_F said:


    StuartDickson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    About 75m east of Odessa..

    @visegrad24
    Initial reports are coming in of a Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson.

    To be confirmed.
    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1496963412701634561

    Yes, it does seem that the Russians have secured the crimean water supply from the Dnieper, but the Ukranians have retaken a bridge:

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1496967261864828935?t=zpANBeAN218Uleq-wqDZVg&s=19
    I really really really hope that US/UK and other willing NATO partners with effective special forces are busily supplying Ukrainian army/insurgents with everything they need to get Putin bogged down in a terrible and unwinnable war.

    This is a rare clear case of a good guy and a bad guy. Let us help the good guys and thereby fuck the bad guy
    I suspect (I don't know) that there are advisors on the ground, and maybe even some US/UK special forces in Ukrainian clothes.
    This morning Putin was pretty clear: anyone assisting Ukraine militarily was going to get nuked.
    I doubt if Putin wishes to spend the rest of his life living underground and eating tinned pineapple. So, that's a hollow threat.
    If he's terminally ill, perhaps he doesn't give a feck.
    Hence the idiocy of the “mutually-assured destruction” paradigm: it assumes that every single custodian of the nuclear button is fit and stable. In perpetuity. You don’t have to be a mathematician or a bookie to know how profoundly unlikely that is.

    1. Hiroshima
    2. Nagasaki
    3. Tbd
    In the case of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, MAD didn't apply as only one country had nuclear weapons (and they were sufficiently crude that they couldn't destroy a fairly small country, never mind the whole planet).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,573
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Putin has lost his marbles - and given his access to the nuclear codes it's worrying that we can now conceive circumstances in which he'd push the button.

    I think fairly soon they'll install a puppet regime in the Ukraine, but a debilitating insurgency will tie the Russians down for however long they stay - and the puppet govt will need massive troop support to keep it in place. Added to which they need to keep the lid on Belarus, and possibly large street protests at home.

    I think our best hope is for a palace coup led by Sergei Lavrov, or whoever.

    The Russians have proved very good at keeping a lid on dissent in Russia. They seem prepared to target all the potential leaders of a sustained resistance. It's quite possible that a majority of those most opposed to the Russians end up either dead, imprisoned or in Poland.

    I'm not convinced there will be a major insurgency.

    This is not to doubt the will of Ukrainians to resist, or their courage, but I think an insurgency is not all that easy to sustain, and the Russians will be prepared to be a lot more brutal than the Americans.
    Worth noting that the massive protests in Belarus were completely suppressed, so Russia can do the same.

    Putin will go by internal political intrigue, not mass uprising.
    Unless the army mutinies. But unless the Ukrainians defeat it, that seems very unlikely.

    And it's not easy to see how the Ukrainians can defeat what's being thrown at them. The murder of those 13 soldiers in the Black Sea by the Russian warship rather grimly encapsulates the situation.
    Yes, when the soldiers back the protestors and refuse to fire on them, the politicians days are generally numbered.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    ‘A top American Russia analyst has warned that targeted advanced sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s regime are likely to be a “total flop” due to the abject dependence of the British economy on finance from Russian oligarchs…

    According to Paul B Stephan – a Distinguished Professor of Law at the University of Virginia who served from 2020 to 2021 as Special Counsel to the General Counsel of the US Department of Defence, with previous Russia-oriented roles in the US State Department and Treasury over decades – it is Britain that is likely to be the biggest drag on any Western sanctions initiative against Russia.’

    https://bylinetimes.com/2022/02/24/uk-sanctions-will-flop-because-the-city-of-london-is-compromised-by-russian-money/?fbclid=IwAR3ld_T-jKae2XpPS663FKAIhYl2k1xErVA4i236sQvb9l5NrclRWEUapTA
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dickson, do you think Scottish nationalism, which would've separated Scotland from both the UK and EU, would also have been a 'triumph for Putin'?

    I suspect that Putin would encourage Sindy too, as he did with Brexit. A major theme of his foreign policy is to foment internal division in Western countries. Hence his troll farms being anti-woke too.

    It doesn't invalidate the legitimacy of the issue, whether Brexit or Sindy, or BLM, but we should be aware of Putin's manipulations, and decide issues on their own merits.
    Putin also foments Wokeness, on the Woke side. Of course you fastidiously pretend otherwise
    Heck, Putin probably has a Reasonable Centrist Dad department in one of his troll farms. Sowing as many divisions as possible is what he does.
    I am sure he does. His troll farms, and the algorithms of the Social Media companies, thrive on conficts, so there has to be multiple sides.

    I don't mind being described as a "Reasonable Centrist Dad". I cannot deny any of the three words!
    I'm not a Dad.

    I like to think of myself as a centrist.

    And I am very reasonable. Putin apologists should be burned alive, as should civil servants at the DfE, but for lesser crimes such as taking pizza with pineapple the penalty should be to be shot.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,026
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Putin has lost his marbles - and given his access to the nuclear codes it's worrying that we can now conceive circumstances in which he'd push the button.

    I think fairly soon they'll install a puppet regime in the Ukraine, but a debilitating insurgency will tie the Russians down for however long they stay - and the puppet govt will need massive troop support to keep it in place. Added to which they need to keep the lid on Belarus, and possibly large street protests at home.

    I think our best hope is for a palace coup led by Sergei Lavrov, or whoever.

    The Russians have proved very good at keeping a lid on dissent in Russia. They seem prepared to target all the potential leaders of a sustained resistance. It's quite possible that a majority of those most opposed to the Russians end up either dead, imprisoned or in Poland.

    I'm not convinced there will be a major insurgency.

    This is not to doubt the will of Ukrainians to resist, or their courage, but I think an insurgency is not all that easy to sustain, and the Russians will be prepared to be a lot more brutal than the Americans.
    Worth noting that the massive protests in Belarus were completely suppressed, so Russia can do the same.

    Putin will go by internal political intrigue, not mass uprising.
    Unless the army mutinies. But unless the Ukrainians defeat it, that seems very unlikely.

    And it's not easy to see how the Ukrainians can defeat what's being thrown at them. The murder of those 13 soldiers in the Black Sea by the Russian warship rather grimly encapsulates the situation.
    It was impossible to see Stone Age Vietnam defeating superpower America. But they did

    And terrain is almost irrelevant. Yes, Afghanistan had mountains, but one of the centres of Vietnamese resistance was the flat Mekong Delta

    All that matters is the will of the people to resist - and a ready supply of arms from outsiders.

    So far I’d say both are in place. Ukraine borders NATO. But maybe Putin can crush all resistance. We shall see

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    edited February 2022
    northern_monkey said:

    ‘A top American Russia analyst has warned that targeted advanced sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s regime are likely to be a “total flop” due to the abject dependence of the British economy on finance from Russian oligarchs…

    According to Paul B Stephan – a Distinguished Professor of Law at the University of Virginia who served from 2020 to 2021 as Special Counsel to the General Counsel of the US Department of Defence, with previous Russia-oriented roles in the US State Department and Treasury over decades – it is Britain that is likely to be the biggest drag on any Western sanctions initiative against Russia.’

    https://bylinetimes.com/2022/02/24/uk-sanctions-will-flop-because-the-city-of-london-is-compromised-by-russian-money/?fbclid=IwAR3ld_T-jKae2XpPS663FKAIhYl2k1xErVA4i236sQvb9l5NrclRWEUapTA

    This indeed confirms much of what's been discussed these last few days. In fact, it even actually mirrors some public statements on "not threatening Britain's status as a financial centre". The Conservative Party now unfortunately finds itself very near the top of this nexus.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Bullies and tyrants are only crushed when decisive and punitive action is taken against them.

    NATO should admit Ukraine with effect from midnight tonight.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,857
    There are some encouraging reports of Russian soldiers deserting, although not sure how accurate they are.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,267
    Morning all,

    Waking to another utterly grim day in world events.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,573
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Putin has lost his marbles - and given his access to the nuclear codes it's worrying that we can now conceive circumstances in which he'd push the button.

    I think fairly soon they'll install a puppet regime in the Ukraine, but a debilitating insurgency will tie the Russians down for however long they stay - and the puppet govt will need massive troop support to keep it in place. Added to which they need to keep the lid on Belarus, and possibly large street protests at home.

    I think our best hope is for a palace coup led by Sergei Lavrov, or whoever.

    The Russians have proved very good at keeping a lid on dissent in Russia. They seem prepared to target all the potential leaders of a sustained resistance. It's quite possible that a majority of those most opposed to the Russians end up either dead, imprisoned or in Poland.

    I'm not convinced there will be a major insurgency.

    This is not to doubt the will of Ukrainians to resist, or their courage, but I think an insurgency is not all that easy to sustain, and the Russians will be prepared to be a lot more brutal than the Americans.
    Worth noting that the massive protests in Belarus were completely suppressed, so Russia can do the same.

    Putin will go by internal political intrigue, not mass uprising.
    Unless the army mutinies. But unless the Ukrainians defeat it, that seems very unlikely.

    And it's not easy to see how the Ukrainians can defeat what's being thrown at them. The murder of those 13 soldiers in the Black Sea by the Russian warship rather grimly encapsulates the situation.
    It was impossible to see Stone Age Vietnam defeating superpower America. But they did

    And terrain is almost irrelevant. Yes, Afghanistan had mountains, but one of the centres of Vietnamese resistance was the flat Mekong Delta

    All that matters is the will of the people to resist - and a ready supply of arms from outsiders.

    So far I’d say both are in place. Ukraine borders NATO. But maybe Putin can crush all resistance. We shall see

    The Soviets in WW2 and China vs Japan ultimately won, like the NLF in Vietnam and Taliban in Afghanistan, by refusing to accept defeat despite massive losses and years of occupation. It is a very painful route to follow.
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