I hope the world of sport reacts strongly. No Russians in the Giro or Tour. No football tournaments. No ice hockey. Ban 100% of Russian competitors, all the way down to junior level. Give them the full South Africa apartheid treatment.
Totally agree.
Shut down everything and anything to do with Russia. Total asset seizure etc.
I hope the world of sport reacts strongly. No Russians in the Giro or Tour. No football tournaments. No ice hockey. Ban 100% of Russian competitors, all the way down to junior level. Give them the full South Africa apartheid treatment.
Also, to those who have been surprised by events who are reaching for the "Putin is mad" trope - I think you are wrong. He certainly wrong and probably evil by any reasonable measure, but that doesn't make him mad.
I hope you are right. If he is 'only' evil then we are less likely to see this escalate out of control. If he is mad then anything could happen.
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
2-3% down is hardly full panic mode facing the biggest war in Europe in 75 years, wouldnt have been surprised if it was 5-10% down.
The lesson of these things is that the first day is only the start. As in March 2020.
Where China stands is probably key to the long term economic severity. Not sure how they will play it.
I wonder if Chinese concerns over recognising the breakaway regions played a part in decision for a full invasion. China may be more comfortable with a puppet Ukrainian regime backed by Russian tanks, than enclaves claiming and getting independence.
On a day like today it seems almost churlish to mention it, but Russia and Ukraine are both seriously important sources of the raw materials required in the manufacture of semiconductors. Putin’s actions are going to have major, multiple ramifications across the world.
Who is hurt if Russian entities are denied access to SWIFT? The answer is, western (largely German) businesses with contracts with Russia. This is insufficient reason not to take that action, which we have been told would bring the Russian economy to its knees.
Further to the earlier comment, I don't think we should divert ourselves with pursuing our various hobby-horses on Brexit, Conservative party funding, politicians who we disagree with, past mistakes that we've made or anything else. Let's focus on Putin's invasion and what we can usefully do at this point - we can revert to the rest afterwards.
My suggestions FWIW:
1. Large-scale NATO troop movements into NATO countries at potential risk. The reason that Putin feels able to attack Ukraine is that they aren't in NATO and we've repeatedly made clear that we won't defend it militarily. It needs to be crystal clear that that isn't the position in NATO countries. 2. Blanket financial and economic sanctions. I'm not an expert in this area, but I'd use every available financial and trade barrier, including retrospective legislation if necessary to freeze Russian assets. 3. Private channels to the Russian leadership on how to climb down from this if there's a palace coup or other changes in the leadership there. What sanctions would we remove if they did X? What precisely are our conditions?
I would not ban RT or deny air time to people who may disagree, including Farage or Corbyn or anyone else. We are a democracy, we are not at war ourselves and people remain free to express an opinion. It's the main way we distinguish ourselves from oligarchies, and if we lapse into censorship we undermine our own case.
Our Prime Minister, for example, is a compulsive liar, a charlatan and unfit for office. What he is not is a genocidal neo-imperialist maniac.
That's only because Johnson lacks the energy and competence of Putin. He'd like to be just as evil he just doesn't know how and can't be arsed.
This isn't the time for comments like this IMO.
It bloody well is. Putin has played the long game. Throw time and money at destabilising the west so that when he breaks international law in very specific and limited way he isn't facing western countries at the height of their powers. Instead he faces defanged pygmies like Johnson and absolute lunatics like Trump (not in office but clearly still holding power and authority over US politics) and preening peacocks like Macron.
Putin looks at all our leaders and sees them as puny idiots. His assessment - and how that drives his decision making - is absolutely the thing we need to be discussing now. Because unless the west recognises its weak position and does something about it, Putin might think there really are no barriers to retaking the ex Soviet NATO states.
Which would be bad.
This all sounds plausible when you put it like that but I'm just trying to think what it means in practice.
Putin is going to invade the country next door to him which isn't in NATO, and western countries are going to put a load of sanctions on Russia which will cost him a lot of money, which is presumably a price he's willing to pay. But they're not going to go to war to stop him, not least because they have a rational fear of it escalating into nuclear armageddon.
If we imagine the western countries were all united and at the height of their powers and run by sane yet strong leaders, what would the said united western countries be doing differently?
What it means in practice is the attempt to extinguish a democratic nation of 44m people by military force. Should it succeed the country next door to him is then in NATO.
Most of us here have lived our entire lives under the certainties of an international order set up after WWII. If this war of aggression succeeds, then that is quite possibly over. The strategic balance of the Cold War no longer exists, either; a multi polar world is a much less stable place.
How is this different to the international order set up after WWII? Russia sent their tanks into Czechoslovakia, and the world made no direct military response, for the same reason that they're making no military response now.
It's true that China is now a serious economic power in a way that it wasn't before, but that hasn't had a lot of impact on this particular crisis, except for somewhat blunting the effect of sanctions.
I think this looks more like a resumption of Cold War rules, which were suspended when Russia collapsed. There's always the terrifying risk that nuclear deterrence will fail and the Russians will either successfully salami-slice their way past the NATO red lines or try to do that and inadvertently escalate into nuclear armageddon. But that was true all the way through the Cold War.
We have to strengthen our defences. And we have to be prepared to fight for all the countries in NATO. If not, Russia will keep going. Putin wants the old Soviet Empire back and those borders did not end at Ukraine.
Thoughts and prayers to those with family and friends in Ukraine.
Also, to those who have been surprised by events who are reaching for the "Putin is mad" trope - I think you are wrong. He certainly wrong and probably evil by any reasonable measure, but that doesn't make him mad.
Such things are a continuum - sane enough to be considered culpable for his acts in a court of law? Probably.
Reaching back to x hundred years old fairy tales of the history of your country to start slaughtering your neighbours is bit pencils-in-nose-underpants-on-your-head, though, isn't it?
On a day like today it seems almost churlish to mention it, but Russia and Ukraine are both seriously important sources of the raw materials required in the manufacture of semiconductors. Putin’s actions are going to have major, multiple ramifications across the world.
Yep. And fertilizer. Massive ramifications coming through to us economically.
But to be honest these are probably the least of our problems.
I don't see how this is contained and does not spill into a war across half of eastern europe.
I usually am in favour of the idea that you are innocent until proven guilty but I think an effective sanction to hit the oligarchs (and also their acolytes as they are many and very wealthy too) would be for UK/EU/US etc to impose a “prove it or lose it” mass freeze on assets today.
Any bank, financial services company, trust company, law firm in Europe (and looking at you too Switzerland) should be legally obliged, with threat of closure and prison for directors, to identify assets owned and controlled byRussian passport holders.
All these assets should be frozen and in the case of houses and cars and jets, seized.
It should then be required to unfreeze that the Ultimate Beneficial Owner proves that they have no ties with the Russian gov, pay no fees, licences or commissions to any actors in the Russian state or belonging to the Russian state or its actors outside Russian territory.
Then there should be a final requirement to unfreeze that the UBO makes a public declaration condemning Putin and his regime and publicly confirming that they will not carry out business or support any Russian state entities whilst Putin remains in charge.
If they don’t want to then they can fuck off. If they are already anti Putin then they shouldn’t have a problem with it and would already know they are potential targets so very little changes.
The only way to stop Putin is to make it so expensive for those in his mafia who support him that they have to act.
No more Knightsbridge, Champs Elysee, villas in South of France, ski chalets, private jets registered in IOM.
It’s against many of my instincts but these are drastic times.
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
3% is hardly full panic mode. This will be partly factored in
It will eventually present a buying opportunity.
Cash is a depreciating asset. Unless you can beat inflation.
Yes, of course cash will depreciate. At maybe 5% per annum. But not 5% per day.
I am sitting tight on my equities. While some are vulnerable to sanctions and war related economic changes it is hard to see why UK builders etc should be down.
The nervousness of Putin's cronies on their public display of support on Monday makes a lot more sense now we know the decision to launch a full invasion had already been signed off. The potential consequences of this really are quite scary.
Mad Vlad has truly gone fecking mad.
We can only hope that internal forces within Russian governing elite will somehow end him before the whole of eastern europe is razed to the ground. Or worse.
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
3% is hardly full panic mode. This will be partly factored in
It will eventually present a buying opportunity.
Cash is a depreciating asset. Unless you can beat inflation.
Yes, of course cash will depreciate. At maybe 5% per annum. But not 5% per day.
I am sitting tight on my equities. While some are vulnerable to sanctions and war related economic changes it is hard to see why UK builders etc should be down.
Who is hurt if Russian entities are denied access to SWIFT? The answer is, western (largely German) businesses with contracts with Russia. This is insufficient reason not to take that action, which we have been told would bring the Russian economy to its knees.
If Russia has a source of whatever it wants and needs from China, Western sanctions are not anything like as effective as we would have hoped. They should still be delivered and with impunity.
Russia has interfered with Western politics for a decade, and we shrugged. Putin knew this day was coming right years ago. We pretended it wasn't. He is prepared.
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
2-3% down is hardly full panic mode facing the biggest war in Europe in 75 years, wouldnt have been surprised if it was 5-10% down.
The lesson of these things is that the first day is only the start. As in March 2020.
But folk are determined to *never* learn from history.
Remember the Sudetenland? Too many clearly forgot. Remember that the next time a “muscular Unionist” (sic) proposes the partition of Scotland. They’re not the good guys.
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
2-3% down is hardly full panic mode facing the biggest war in Europe in 75 years, wouldnt have been surprised if it was 5-10% down.
The lesson of these things is that the first day is only the start. As in March 2020.
Where China stands is probably key to the long term economic severity. Not sure how they will play it.
I wonder if Chinese concerns over recognising the breakaway regions played a part in decision for a full invasion. China may be more comfortable with a puppet Ukrainian regime backed by Russian tanks, than enclaves claiming and getting independence.
I hate to say this but what the western countries really need to do now is to repair relations with China (and Iran). It would be great if they had enough leverage to spare to deter both national aggression and domestic human rights abuses, but they don't, and unfortunately they never had much purchase on domestic human rights abuses in the first place, so they should prioritize punishing wars of aggression.
Obviously this will have to change if China moves against Taiwan, but so far it hasn't.
While not unexpected, still rather horrible to wake up to a new war in Europe.
Did you ever expect to write that post?
I did.
David Cameron (pbuh) did warn us all that if Brexit happened the peace we've known in Europe after WWII was at risk.
(I mean he didn't say that but the reaction of Brexiteers was hilarious to the spin Gove put on the speech before it happened.)
There was a foreign country that not only cheered Brexit on, but helped to pay for the campaign. I'll have to check back to see which it was.
Brexit and what Putin has just done have nothing to do with each other.
On the contrary, Putins strategy of fomenting divisions in other countries is longstanding. CheerleadingTrumpism, Le Pen, Orban, Brexit, the troll farms, the support of Wikileaks, the antivax movement, the Ottawa protests etc are all part of a destabilisation campaign. It is one seamless foreign policy.
I always have a strong desire to see people who were wrong to admit that they were wrong - but today I am more interested in seeing that we take the determined actions that are required to defend against future Russian aggression.
Refighting the Brexit War is not going to help to defend the Baltic States.
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
What a load of shit by Marr.
Lovely I'm sure those words by Marr might be to someone, somewhere they mean nothing to me.
Say it like it is. A fascist dictator thug in charge of a mafia gangster state has ordered his troops to invade and conquer another.
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
3% is hardly full panic mode. This will be partly factored in
It will eventually present a buying opportunity.
Cash is a depreciating asset. Unless you can beat inflation.
Yes, of course cash will depreciate. At maybe 5% per annum. But not 5% per day.
I am sitting tight on my equities. While some are vulnerable to sanctions and war related economic changes it is hard to see why UK builders etc should be down.
So am I, especially while they are paying dividends.
This will be over one day and the initial reaction will subside.
Who is hurt if Russian entities are denied access to SWIFT? The answer is, western (largely German) businesses with contracts with Russia. This is insufficient reason not to take that action, which we have been told would bring the Russian economy to its knees.
Among other things, it would stop payment for gas. Though you might be able to get round it sending fork lift pallets of dollars or Euros by plane or something.
If Germany, for example is cut off from Russian gas, the economy will collapse - it's 35% of energy usage (IIRC).
While not unexpected, still rather horrible to wake up to a new war in Europe.
Did you ever expect to write that post?
I did.
David Cameron (pbuh) did warn us all that if Brexit happened the peace we've known in Europe after WWII was at risk.
(I mean he didn't say that but the reaction of Brexiteers was hilarious to the spin Gove put on the speech before it happened.)
If you think that no Brexit would have prevented this then you are more of a fucking lunatic than I already took you for.
Like all hypothetical pasts it's impossible to know, but the idea is entirely plausible. Russian tactics on dividing the EU and ruining America's trust in government fail, so Russia abandons the more physically aggressive parts of its strategy, and Ukraine remains merely in a frozen conflict instead of subject to a wider invasion.
It doesn't make Brexit wrong, but the above is an entirely believable timeline.
All of which ignores the fact that this all started at least as early as 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. Well before Brexit was a serious possibility. Putin saw the reaction of the West then (nothing) and knew he could do this when he was ready. This was confirmed to him when he saw the way the West scuttled out of Afghanistan and lots of us on here were saying that Russia and China would be taking clear lessons from that debacle as well.
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
3% is hardly full panic mode. This will be partly factored in
It will eventually present a buying opportunity.
Cash is a depreciating asset. Unless you can beat inflation.
Yes, of course cash will depreciate. At maybe 5% per annum. But not 5% per day.
I am sitting tight on my equities. While some are vulnerable to sanctions and war related economic changes it is hard to see why UK builders etc should be down.
More inflation leading to recession?
Yes, possibly, but equities are for the long term, I try not to overtrade and second guess short term movements. The only exception being selling everything in Feb 20 and buying back in April/May 20, as I could see what was coming.
What we might need to consider as a matter of first course is an immediate Defence review, together with France and Germany and US.
It might mean we need to put 100s of 1000s of troops from NATO into Eastern Europe. I know that provocative but Putin as a classic bully will take what he can from the weak. A show of re-armament is the language he understands.
ISTANBUL — Ukraine’s ambassador to Ankara called for Turkey to close its airspace and to forbid passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to warships.
Ukraine reporting it has shot down 5 Russian planes
Good, if true.
Sadly as in all these situations it will be days before any clear picture of what casualties have been inflicted emerges - if it ever does. I suspect the clearest indications that things are not going as planned for Russia will be the commitment of more forces. But even then the picture will remain muddy.
I think that we will have cyber attacks today. This could escalate very quickly. The man is mad.
Naval sources tell me that Russian submarines are often around here trying to tap into the comms cables that run across the Channel, and the C5 documentary 'Life on a Warship' included an episode where one was found doing the same with the transatlantic cables. Perhaps we will find out what they have been up to?
The idea that we will impose “devastating” sanctions and Russia will not respond fiercely is for the birds. This is not a weak Middle Eastern country we can hurt with impunity. They will respond.
But we still need to act.
[snip]
The Baltic states, I really don't know. But in practice, they probably cannot be realistically defended by NATO.
I think I agree. The best to hope for is a liberation at the other end. And if we end up there, the whole world is in real trouble.
Nuclear weapons really have proven to be a double edged sword (if not a sword of Damocles) on world peace. Sure, they may have prevented large scale war between great powers since 1945 (a few bumps in the road, but isolated bumps). They have, by and large, made the world more careful in waging global war. To paraphrase, without nukes, it would be a lot easier to kick this new Tsar's backside. But if my Aunt had balls she'd be my Uncle and the spectre of nuclear annihilation exists.
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
3% is hardly full panic mode. This will be partly factored in
It will eventually present a buying opportunity.
Cash is a depreciating asset. Unless you can beat inflation.
Yes, of course cash will depreciate. At maybe 5% per annum. But not 5% per day.
I am sitting tight on my equities. While some are vulnerable to sanctions and war related economic changes it is hard to see why UK builders etc should be down.
Opened some March and April puts this morning but still mostly long.
Today is not a day to be arguing about Brexit. Putin has been aided by general Western diffidence for many years and from all parts of the political spectrum. Hopefully, lessons will be learned and we will all remember who our true friends are.
Over the years - and in different ways - the Conservative party, the Labour party, UKIP, the SNP, Alba and many other prominent political groups have all enabled Putin and his mates. So have a number of UK law and accountancy firms, businesses and other institutions. There should be a reckoning. There won’t be.
Notable and unjustified omission: Liberal Democrats.
The Cameron-Clegg ministry was just as culpable as the ministries before and after.
My hatred for Putin today is so great, that as a staunch leaver I'd offer the UK to rejoin the EU just because I know it would piss him off.
[1] Gotta talk about Brexit I suppose. Wouldn't be a PB thread without it.
I think both you and Nick are right - refighting the Brexit debate, whether one believes it a good decision or a mistake, is utterly irrelevant this morning.
Democracies need to hang together, whatever their trade arrangements.
The West cannot respond without accepting that will cause itself some aggravation and a retaliation. Does it accept that enough to really do something coordinated and significant?
Also, to those who have been surprised by events who are reaching for the "Putin is mad" trope - I think you are wrong. He certainly wrong and probably evil by any reasonable measure, but that doesn't make him mad.
Such things are a continuum - sane enough to be considered culpable for his acts in a court of law? Probably.
Reaching back to x hundred years old fairy tales of the history of your country to start slaughtering your neighbours is bit pencils-in-nose-underpants-on-your-head, though, isn't it?
I guess what I want to know is, what explanatory benefit does the label serve? There's been nothing unpredictable about this, the strategy has been openly discussed in public for at least 11 years. I tend to think those claim he is mad are those for whom this is all a big shock and who haven't yet read up on the long pattern of Russia imperialist rhetoric and the decade-long uptick thereof.
Put it like this - if a UK PM actually started a war with France over the treaty of Troyes, we'd have him in the Priory for a nice long rest before you could click your fingers...
Oh and also the Tories need to deal with their Russia issue with their funding right now.
Why? Nobody cares enough for it to make a difference.
Especially if the plan is for CCHQ to hand the Russian money back to Russia. Though it is not really clear why the Tories cannot persuade some squillionaire to stump up a couple of million quid so they can painlessly make the gesture of handing the Russian money to wherever takes their fancy.
My hatred for Putin today is so great, that as a staunch leaver I'd offer the UK to rejoin the EU just because I know it would piss him off.
[1] Gotta talk about Brexit I suppose. Wouldn't be a PB thread without it.
I think both you and Nick are right - refighting the Brexit debate, whether one believes it a good decision or a mistake, is utterly irrelevant this morning.
Democracies need to hang together, whatever their trade arrangements.
Further to the earlier comment, I don't think we should divert ourselves with pursuing our various hobby-horses on Brexit, Conservative party funding, politicians who we disagree with, past mistakes that we've made or anything else. Let's focus on Putin's invasion and what we can usefully do at this point - we can revert to the rest afterwards.
My suggestions FWIW:
1. Large-scale NATO troop movements into NATO countries at potential risk. The reason that Putin feels able to attack Ukraine is that they aren't in NATO and we've repeatedly made clear that we won't defend it militarily. It needs to be crystal clear that that isn't the position in NATO countries. 2. Blanket financial and economic sanctions. I'm not an expert in this area, but I'd use every available financial and trade barrier, including retrospective legislation if necessary to freeze Russian assets. 3. Private channels to the Russian leadership on how to climb down from this if there's a palace coup or other changes in the leadership there. What sanctions would we remove if they did X? What precisely are our conditions?
I would not ban RT or deny air time to people who may disagree, including Farage or Corbyn or anyone else. We are a democracy, we are not at war ourselves and people remain free to express an opinion. It's the main way we distinguish ourselves from oligarchies, and if we lapse into censorship we undermine our own case.
To back up 3, I would add issuing a list - a very long list - of those who will face war crimes trials. Anyone remotely using power given by Putin and his clique. Anyone complicit in his decision to go to war. Until these trials are held, their assets in any of the following (long list of) countries will be seized - and used as reparations for rebuilding Ukraine.
Seize their yachts, their villas, reduce their playground to their dachas again. Until this Putin regime is over and the tanks return back inside Russia's accepted international borders, we should be determined - they will have nowhere to go.
The West cannot respond without accepting that will cause itself some aggravation and a retaliation. Does it accept that enough to really do something coordinated and significant?
No. Ukraine is not in NATO so at most the western response will be economic sanctions. Though NATO troops need to be sent rapidly to Poland and the Baltic States to protect them now as they are in NATO following the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
2-3% down is hardly full panic mode facing the biggest war in Europe in 75 years, wouldnt have been surprised if it was 5-10% down.
The lesson of these things is that the first day is only the start. As in March 2020.
Where China stands is probably key to the long term economic severity. Not sure how they will play it.
I wonder if Chinese concerns over recognising the breakaway regions played a part in decision for a full invasion. China may be more comfortable with a puppet Ukrainian regime backed by Russian tanks, than enclaves claiming and getting independence.
China's line so far this morning is that 1) it's not an invasion, and 2) it's the fault of the west.
Further to the earlier comment, I don't think we should divert ourselves with pursuing our various hobby-horses on Brexit, Conservative party funding, politicians who we disagree with, past mistakes that we've made or anything else. Let's focus on Putin's invasion and what we can usefully do at this point - we can revert to the rest afterwards.
My suggestions FWIW:
1. Large-scale NATO troop movements into NATO countries at potential risk. The reason that Putin feels able to attack Ukraine is that they aren't in NATO and we've repeatedly made clear that we won't defend it militarily. It needs to be crystal clear that that isn't the position in NATO countries. 2. Blanket financial and economic sanctions. I'm not an expert in this area, but I'd use every available financial and trade barrier, including retrospective legislation if necessary to freeze Russian assets. 3. Private channels to the Russian leadership on how to climb down from this if there's a palace coup or other changes in the leadership there. What sanctions would we remove if they did X? What precisely are our conditions?
I would not ban RT or deny air time to people who may disagree, including Farage or Corbyn or anyone else. We are a democracy, we are not at war ourselves and people remain free to express an opinion. It's the main way we distinguish ourselves from oligarchies, and if we lapse into censorship we undermine our own case.
To back up 3, I would add issuing a list - a very long list - of those who will face war crimes trials. Anyone remotely using power given by Putin and his clique. Anyone complicit in his decision to go to war. Until these trials are held, their assets in any of the following (long list of) countries will be seized - and used as reparations for rebuilding Ukraine.
Seize their yachts, their villas, reduce their playground to their dachas again. Until this Putin regime is over and the tanks return back inside Russia's accepted international borders, we should be determined - they will have nowhere to go.
Further to the earlier comment, I don't think we should divert ourselves with pursuing our various hobby-horses on Brexit, Conservative party funding, politicians who we disagree with, past mistakes that we've made or anything else. Let's focus on Putin's invasion and what we can usefully do at this point - we can revert to the rest afterwards.
My suggestions FWIW:
1. Large-scale NATO troop movements into NATO countries at potential risk. The reason that Putin feels able to attack Ukraine is that they aren't in NATO and we've repeatedly made clear that we won't defend it militarily. It needs to be crystal clear that that isn't the position in NATO countries. 2. Blanket financial and economic sanctions. I'm not an expert in this area, but I'd use every available financial and trade barrier, including retrospective legislation if necessary to freeze Russian assets. 3. Private channels to the Russian leadership on how to climb down from this if there's a palace coup or other changes in the leadership there. What sanctions would we remove if they did X? What precisely are our conditions?
I would not ban RT or deny air time to people who may disagree, including Farage or Corbyn or anyone else. We are a democracy, we are not at war ourselves and people remain free to express an opinion. It's the main way we distinguish ourselves from oligarchies, and if we lapse into censorship we undermine our own case.
To back up 3, I would add issuing a list - a very long list - of those who will face war crimes trials. Anyone remotely using power given by Putin and his clique. Anyone complicit in his decision to go to war. Until these trials are held, their assets in any of the following (long list of) countries will be seized - and used as reparations for rebuilding Ukraine.
Seize their yachts, their villas, reduce their playground to their dachas again. Until this Putin regime is over and the tanks return back inside Russia's accepted international borders, we should be determined - they will have nowhere to go.
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
I think in your anger you're lumping together different points. I didn't think Putin would go full tonto. But I've always considered him an evil bastard, would have gone after dirty Russian money long, long, ago, thought that our response after Salisbury, the shooting down of MH17, the series of other poisonings, Crimea, etc. etc. has been beyond feeble.
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies.
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
And yes, we are absolved.
No we aren't.
We have dirty Putin money on our hands and we are not absolved of it, nor of our response.
We could have hit Putin much harder a long, long, time ago. And we have also stoked up the problems.
It's very easy to lay blame for actions entirely on one person but I'm afraid that's not how the real world works. Nothing happens ex nihilo. There have been a series of huge mistakes by the west over a long period of time. That doesn't deny the fact that Putin is both evil and crazed.
At the risk of going all Godwin, a good example of how culpability is shared would be the Versailles treaty of 1919.
You won't see this now because you're burning with anger but one day you will reflect on this and see it with clearer, calmer, eyes.
The West has indeed made a series of huge mistakes, but offensive and defensive, over the past 33 years, that have contributed to this.
(Snip)
The issue with this line of thinking is that Putin has wanted to 'secure his borders' using neighbouring states for decades. Hence Georgia in ?2008?.
If we'd largely done the opposite actions, people would find excuses for his actions.
Yes, it doesn't make any sense when people attempt to both sides this, usually while denying they are, often in misplaced attempt at realism and balance. But using his talking points amounts to the same thing.
Most things the answer is in the middle of two extremes., or blame to be shared around. Not always.
Talk of 'contributing' to this is among the silliest arguments. If I input 1% to an argument it would be true to say i have 'contributed' to it, but rather overegging my role in affairs.
A geopolitical decision 25 years ago might 'contribute' to the course of history, or a Ukrainian stepping on Putin's shoe 9 years ago, but would not be very significant or relevant when analysing matters.
Also, to those who have been surprised by events who are reaching for the "Putin is mad" trope - I think you are wrong. He certainly wrong and probably evil by any reasonable measure, but that doesn't make him mad.
Such things are a continuum - sane enough to be considered culpable for his acts in a court of law? Probably.
Reaching back to x hundred years old fairy tales of the history of your country to start slaughtering your neighbours is bit pencils-in-nose-underpants-on-your-head, though, isn't it?
I guess what I want to know is, what explanatory benefit does the label serve? There's been nothing unpredictable about this, the strategy has been openly discussed in public for at least 11 years. I tend to think those claim he is mad are those for whom this is all a big shock and who haven't yet read up on the long pattern of Russia imperialist rhetoric and the decade-long uptick thereof.
Put it like this - if a UK PM actually started a war with France over the treaty of Troyes, we'd have him in the Priory for a nice long rest before you could click your fingers...
Speak for yourself. I'm sure TSE and myself would be fully supportive of that British PM!
Joint statement by the three Baltic foreign ministers 🇪🇪@eliimets, 🇱🇻@edgarsrinkevics, 🇱🇹 @GLandsbergis in support of Ukraine 🇺🇦, condemning in a strongest possible way the open large scale Russian aggression against the independent, peaceful and democratic Ukraine
“ We, the foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania condemn in a strongest possible way the open large scale Russian aggression against the independent, peaceful and democratic Ukraine. This act of aggression is not acceptable, it's a blatant violation of the international law, of all international norms and a crime against Ukrainian people that we condemn. All of us in the whole international community need to condemn it in a strongest possible way, to impose strongest possible sanctions on Russia, including disengaging Russia from SWIFT, isolating it politically and be firm in our support to the sovereignty, territorial integrity of independent Ukraine. We would need to urgently provide Ukrainian people with weapons, ammunition and any other kind of military support to defend itself as well as economic, financial and political assistance and support, humanitarian aid. In this difficult moment we stand united with the people of Ukraine. Dear Ukrainian friends, we are in your historic capital Kyiv, we support you and do anything possible so that Man SO 7Ukraini! 17 209 1 553 1
"Multi-billionaire oligarchs at heart of corruption cases have been welcomed by our financial institutions with open arms... It shows the cynical greed of lawyers and spin doctors getting rich as Vladimir Putin cronies' cheerleaders"
See, the fuming against Putin by the right-wingers on here absolves them from their responsibilities.
We have washed dirty money in London and our sanctions are feeble. Rant and rage against Putin (he's an evil man, or is that just he's a man?).
Anything to deflect from the stinking corruption of rinsing Putin's money which has been fostered under this utterly corrupt Conservative Party.
"their responsibilities" ?
This conflict is the responsibility of Putin. He is to blame. He's wanted this war for years.
It should be noted that you just wrote a comment which in its entirety was about *our* supposed wrongdoing, as if nothing was happening in Ukraine.
I won't go as far as Heathener, but there is a point being made. Putin has spent a decade plus undermining the west. Not only are we on the tit for his gas and for their money, we don't seem bothered by the flooding of social media by Russian agents manipulating the way we think and act. Indeed when the narrow scope ISC investigation found both evidence of direct Russian meddling and recommended defences against more, this Prime Minister refused to accept that or take any action other than keep welcoming Russian money into London.
That is literally providing succour to Putin. And its far far worse in America where the President in the south declares his continued love for Putin. So yes. Their responsibilities in making the west a neutered mess that Putin can now ignore with impunity.
We can fix all that and turn it around. BDS. But as we propose such measures to even use our existing laws to do so, its banning free speech, its blood and soil racism, its political point scoring.
Either Putin and Russia are the enemy or they are not. What kind of enemy gets to be allowed to broadcast propaganda, to sponsor football tournaments, to rinse billions in dirty money through London, to directly influence our political system? This has to stop. Or we cannot stop Putin.
One thing I do is negotiate deals. You can't successfully do so without fully understanding the counterparty. Their position. Their expectations. Their opinions. "He's evil" isn't remotely enough, especially when you're telling him he isn't evil by continuing to have your society on the hook to him.
Of course Putin has spent a couple of decades undermining the west. I've been one of the posters on here continually calling for stringer measures against them, to the usual calls of either "It wasn't Russia!", "It's our fault", or the classic "We can't risk WWIII !".
And we are where we are, with Putin doing what he wants and threatening WWIII on us all.
And BTW, I try to make a distinction between the Russian people and the Russian leadership.
Has Mrs Heathener explained how this fits with her adamant prediction that “Putin will not invade”
I said Putin will invade, he has invaded. I still can’t quite believe he’s insane enough to occupy the entire country. What’s the point? He will want a quick war, secure air superiority, annexe a couple of provinces, regime change in Kiev. Then retreat but with menacing control of everything. Ukraine will be Belarus 2.0
He will then wait and expect us to tire of sanctions and heavy defence expenditure.
Further to the earlier comment, I don't think we should divert ourselves with pursuing our various hobby-horses on Brexit, Conservative party funding, politicians who we disagree with, past mistakes that we've made or anything else. Let's focus on Putin's invasion and what we can usefully do at this point - we can revert to the rest afterwards.
My suggestions FWIW:
1. Large-scale NATO troop movements into NATO countries at potential risk. The reason that Putin feels able to attack Ukraine is that they aren't in NATO and we've repeatedly made clear that we won't defend it militarily. It needs to be crystal clear that that isn't the position in NATO countries. 2. Blanket financial and economic sanctions. I'm not an expert in this area, but I'd use every available financial and trade barrier, including retrospective legislation if necessary to freeze Russian assets. 3. Private channels to the Russian leadership on how to climb down from this if there's a palace coup or other changes in the leadership there. What sanctions would we remove if they did X? What precisely are our conditions?
I would not ban RT or deny air time to people who may disagree, including Farage or Corbyn or anyone else. We are a democracy, we are not at war ourselves and people remain free to express an opinion. It's the main way we distinguish ourselves from oligarchies, and if we lapse into censorship we undermine our own case.
To back up 3, I would add issuing a list - a very long list - of those who will face war crimes trials. Anyone remotely using power given by Putin and his clique. Anyone complicit in his decision to go to war. Until these trials are held, their assets in any of the following (long list of) countries will be seized - and used as reparations for rebuilding Ukraine.
Seize their yachts, their villas, reduce their playground to their dachas again. Until this Putin regime is over and the tanks return back inside Russia's accepted international borders, we should be determined - they will have nowhere to go.
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
What a load of shit by Marr.
Lovely I'm sure those words by Marr might be to someone, somewhere they mean nothing to me.
Say it like it is. A fascist dictator thug in charge of a mafia gangster state has ordered his troops to invade and conquer another.
There is something to the thesis that most Great Men are bad.
Napoleon literally ran out of able bodied men to provide Glory.
Nearly all Great Men devolve, when you read their story, into gangsters on the make.
It is funny to remember the shock of translating the nicknames the august Roman Senators used, and realise that Kid Butcher was "Pompey The Great"s street name...
Glad I’m extremely heavy on gold and cash. Stock markets going into full panic mode.
2-3% down is hardly full panic mode facing the biggest war in Europe in 75 years, wouldnt have been surprised if it was 5-10% down.
The lesson of these things is that the first day is only the start. As in March 2020.
But folk are determined to *never* learn from history.
Remember the Sudetenland? Too many clearly forgot. Remember that the next time a “muscular Unionist” (sic) proposes the partition of Scotland. They’re not the good guys.
Some diehard Remainers were happy to propose the partition of the UK after Brexit
What we might need to consider as a matter of first course is an immediate Defence review, together with France and Germany and US.
It might mean we need to put 100s of 1000s of troops from NATO into Eastern Europe. I know that provocative but Putin as a classic bully will take what he can from the weak. A show of re-armament is the language he understands.
In 1984 we spent 5.5% of GDP on defence, today we are just above 2%.
I've no idea where we find the money to take defence spending up towards 3% as a first step, but a way has to be found.
Further to the earlier comment, I don't think we should divert ourselves with pursuing our various hobby-horses on Brexit, Conservative party funding, politicians who we disagree with, past mistakes that we've made or anything else. Let's focus on Putin's invasion and what we can usefully do at this point - we can revert to the rest afterwards.
My suggestions FWIW:
1. Large-scale NATO troop movements into NATO countries at potential risk. The reason that Putin feels able to attack Ukraine is that they aren't in NATO and we've repeatedly made clear that we won't defend it militarily. It needs to be crystal clear that that isn't the position in NATO countries. 2. Blanket financial and economic sanctions. I'm not an expert in this area, but I'd use every available financial and trade barrier, including retrospective legislation if necessary to freeze Russian assets. 3. Private channels to the Russian leadership on how to climb down from this if there's a palace coup or other changes in the leadership there. What sanctions would we remove if they did X? What precisely are our conditions?
I would not ban RT or deny air time to people who may disagree, including Farage or Corbyn or anyone else. We are a democracy, we are not at war ourselves and people remain free to express an opinion. It's the main way we distinguish ourselves from oligarchies, and if we lapse into censorship we undermine our own case.
To back up 3, I would add issuing a list - a very long list - of those who will face war crimes trials. Anyone remotely using power given by Putin and his clique. Anyone complicit in his decision to go to war. Until these trials are held, their assets in any of the following (long list of) countries will be seized - and used as reparations for rebuilding Ukraine.
Seize their yachts, their villas, reduce their playground to their dachas again. Until this Putin regime is over and the tanks return back inside Russia's accepted international borders, we should be determined - they will have nowhere to go.
Yes. Seize all the assets. Shut down all their banks. Close all their rich playgrounds. Throw the whole fecking book at them. Their playtime in europe is over.
Also agree with Nick P on NATO. We need large scale troop movements into front edge NATO countries now.
"Multi-billionaire oligarchs at heart of corruption cases have been welcomed by our financial institutions with open arms... It shows the cynical greed of lawyers and spin doctors getting rich as Vladimir Putin cronies' cheerleaders"
See, the fuming against Putin by the right-wingers on here absolves them from their responsibilities.
We have washed dirty money in London and our sanctions are feeble. Rant and rage against Putin (he's an evil man, or is that just he's a man?).
Anything to deflect from the stinking corruption of rinsing Putin's money which has been fostered under this utterly corrupt Conservative Party.
"their responsibilities" ?
This conflict is the responsibility of Putin. He is to blame. He's wanted this war for years.
It should be noted that you just wrote a comment which in its entirety was about *our* supposed wrongdoing, as if nothing was happening in Ukraine.
I won't go as far as Heathener, but there is a point being made. Putin has spent a decade plus undermining the west. Not only are we on the tit for his gas and for their money, we don't seem bothered by the flooding of social media by Russian agents manipulating the way we think and act. Indeed when the narrow scope ISC investigation found both evidence of direct Russian meddling and recommended defences against more, this Prime Minister refused to accept that or take any action other than keep welcoming Russian money into London.
That is literally providing succour to Putin. And its far far worse in America where the President in the south declares his continued love for Putin. So yes. Their responsibilities in making the west a neutered mess that Putin can now ignore with impunity.
We can fix all that and turn it around. BDS. But as we propose such measures to even use our existing laws to do so, its banning free speech, its blood and soil racism, its political point scoring.
Either Putin and Russia are the enemy or they are not. What kind of enemy gets to be allowed to broadcast propaganda, to sponsor football tournaments, to rinse billions in dirty money through London, to directly influence our political system? This has to stop. Or we cannot stop Putin.
One thing I do is negotiate deals. You can't successfully do so without fully understanding the counterparty. Their position. Their expectations. Their opinions. "He's evil" isn't remotely enough, especially when you're telling him he isn't evil by continuing to have your society on the hook to him.
Of course Putin has spent a couple of decades undermining the west. I've been one of the posters on here continually calling for stringer measures against them, to the usual calls of either "It wasn't Russia!", "It's our fault", or the classic "We can't risk WWIII !".
And we are where we are, with Putin doing what he wants and threatening WWIII on us all.
And BTW, I try to make a distinction between the Russian people and the Russian leadership.
Not to mention the usual calls of "we only took clean Russian money" and "Russia did interfere in our politics but it didn't change any results".
Further to the earlier comment, I don't think we should divert ourselves with pursuing our various hobby-horses on Brexit, Conservative party funding, politicians who we disagree with, past mistakes that we've made or anything else. Let's focus on Putin's invasion and what we can usefully do at this point - we can revert to the rest afterwards.
My suggestions FWIW:
1. Large-scale NATO troop movements into NATO countries at potential risk. The reason that Putin feels able to attack Ukraine is that they aren't in NATO and we've repeatedly made clear that we won't defend it militarily. It needs to be crystal clear that that isn't the position in NATO countries. 2. Blanket financial and economic sanctions. I'm not an expert in this area, but I'd use every available financial and trade barrier, including retrospective legislation if necessary to freeze Russian assets. 3. Private channels to the Russian leadership on how to climb down from this if there's a palace coup or other changes in the leadership there. What sanctions would we remove if they did X? What precisely are our conditions?
I would not ban RT or deny air time to people who may disagree, including Farage or Corbyn or anyone else. We are a democracy, we are not at war ourselves and people remain free to express an opinion. It's the main way we distinguish ourselves from oligarchies, and if we lapse into censorship we undermine our own case.
To back up 3, I would add issuing a list - a very long list - of those who will face war crimes trials. Anyone remotely using power given by Putin and his clique. Anyone complicit in his decision to go to war. Until these trials are held, their assets in any of the following (long list of) countries will be seized - and used as reparations for rebuilding Ukraine.
Seize their yachts, their villas, reduce their playground to their dachas again. Until this Putin regime is over and the tanks return back inside Russia's accepted international borders, we should be determined - they will have nowhere to go.
Does simply starting a war amount to a war crime?
"Crimes against peace" was a charge at Nuremberg, but it has rarely been prosecuted.
The law is more concerned about ius in bello, rather than ius ad bellum.
What we might need to consider as a matter of first course is an immediate Defence review, together with France and Germany and US.
It might mean we need to put 100s of 1000s of troops from NATO into Eastern Europe. I know that provocative but Putin as a classic bully will take what he can from the weak. A show of re-armament is the language he understands.
In 1984 we spent 5.5% of GDP on defence, today we are just above 2%.
I've no idea where we find the money to take defence spending up towards 3% as a first step, but a way has to be found.
I know. It'll be a grim time and our economy will be shit but doing that is preferable to Putin being able to roll over Eastern Europe at a whim.
Make no mistake, this is a new Cold War at best. Lets just try to stop it becoming WW3.
I have just come back from the flag raising at the Parliament. As it is Estonia, we all sang. It was beautiful. I saw all the young men from the University fraternities and the Defence League and I wanted to cry.
So Trump wins in 24. NATO destroyed. Game, Set and Match Putin.
Even if Trump did win again it would not destroy NATO. France, Germany, Poland, the UK and Turkey, Italy and Canada would all still be members and enough combined to contain Putin even without the USA.
Trump also may not be bothered about Putin but he is bothered about Communist China. Indeed Trump would even go to war with China if it invaded Taiwan based on his rhetoric which Biden would not, merely imposing sanctions on China as he will do on Russia after the Ukraine invasion.
Remember the last time we were at war with Russia in the Crimean War it was us, France and Turkey v Russia with no US involvement
Who is hurt if Russian entities are denied access to SWIFT? The answer is, western (largely German) businesses with contracts with Russia. This is insufficient reason not to take that action, which we have been told would bring the Russian economy to its knees.
If Russia has a source of whatever it wants and needs from China, Western sanctions are not anything like as effective as we would have hoped. They should still be delivered and with impunity.
Russia has interfered with Western politics for a decade, and we shrugged. Putin knew this day was coming right years ago. We pretended it wasn't. He is prepared.
I am not sure that is true, and Russia becoming dependent on the China trade carries its own risks for them.
Russia is still a European country, with the weight of its population, trade and culture part of that, albeit always rather ambivalent and semi-detached.
I hope the world of sport reacts strongly. No Russians in the Giro or Tour. No football tournaments. No ice hockey. Ban 100% of Russian competitors, all the way down to junior level. Give them the full South Africa apartheid treatment.
What we might need to consider as a matter of first course is an immediate Defence review, together with France and Germany and US.
It might mean we need to put 100s of 1000s of troops from NATO into Eastern Europe. I know that provocative but Putin as a classic bully will take what he can from the weak. A show of re-armament is the language he understands.
That means defending the Baltic States if need be. They are the next, and obvious, target.
Crystal clear threat to use nuclear weapons from Putin. Bone-chilling to listen to.
It was always obvious that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were never going to be the only and final victims. Who’ll be No.3?
It does not bear thinking about but never before has our nuclear deterrent been as important
Well it hasn't deterred Putin thus far.
I would say it is totally useless against Putin. Mutually assured nuclear destruction is no threat to someone who doesn't give a ****!
Of course it has. Ukraine isn't a member of NATO The rest of Eastern Europe would be in trouble if they weren't either.
Come back to me on the one when the Baltic States are part of the Russian Federation.
Ukraine had nukes, Soviet nukes, they gave them up in good faith. They gave up their nuclear deterrent. They were hoodwinked by Russia.
We are not going to launch a strike for Ukraine and neither will we for the Baltic States, Poland, or Finland. If we do it's game over for everyone. It's Mad Max Beyond the Thunderdome.
The nuclear deterrent is only a deterrent if it deters. It has not and will not deter Putin.
Crystal clear threat to use nuclear weapons from Putin. Bone-chilling to listen to.
It was always obvious that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were never going to be the only and final victims. Who’ll be No.3?
It does not bear thinking about but never before has our nuclear deterrent been as important
Well it hasn't deterred Putin thus far.
I would say it is totally useless against Putin. Mutually assured nuclear destruction is no threat to someone who doesn't give a ****!
Of course it has. Ukraine isn't a member of NATO The rest of Eastern Europe would be in trouble if they weren't either.
Come back to me on the one when the Baltic States are part of the Russian Federation.
Ukraine had nukes, Soviet nukes, they gave them up in good faith. They gave up their nuclear deterrent. They were hoodwinked by Russia.
We are not going to launch a strike for Ukraine and neither will we for the Baltic States, Poland, or Finland. If we do it's game over for everyone. It's Mad Max Beyond the Thunderdome.
The nuclear deterrent is only a deterrent if it deters. It has not and will not deter Putin.
Of course it’s a deterrent. Has anyone attacked North Korea? Or really tried to annihilate Israel?
Putin would never invade France or the UK, because we have nukes. Because he would seriously risk the entire obliteration of Russia, and tens of millions dead
The question is, how wide and strong is NATO’s combined nuclear umbrella over non-nuke states? Would we launch nukes to stop an invasion of Germany, or Italy? I think yes.
The further east you go, however, the weaker the moral will of the West.
A very, very minor - almost entirely inconsequential - point in the great scheme of things: there is now no chance on God’s earth of Jeremy Corbyn being a Labour candidate at the next general election.
Further to the earlier comment, I don't think we should divert ourselves with pursuing our various hobby-horses on Brexit, Conservative party funding, politicians who we disagree with, past mistakes that we've made or anything else. Let's focus on Putin's invasion and what we can usefully do at this point - we can revert to the rest afterwards.
My suggestions FWIW:
1. Large-scale NATO troop movements into NATO countries at potential risk. The reason that Putin feels able to attack Ukraine is that they aren't in NATO and we've repeatedly made clear that we won't defend it militarily. It needs to be crystal clear that that isn't the position in NATO countries. 2. Blanket financial and economic sanctions. I'm not an expert in this area, but I'd use every available financial and trade barrier, including retrospective legislation if necessary to freeze Russian assets. 3. Private channels to the Russian leadership on how to climb down from this if there's a palace coup or other changes in the leadership there. What sanctions would we remove if they did X? What precisely are our conditions?
I would not ban RT or deny air time to people who may disagree, including Farage or Corbyn or anyone else. We are a democracy, we are not at war ourselves and people remain free to express an opinion. It's the main way we distinguish ourselves from oligarchies, and if we lapse into censorship we undermine our own case.
To back up 3, I would add issuing a list - a very long list - of those who will face war crimes trials. Anyone remotely using power given by Putin and his clique. Anyone complicit in his decision to go to war. Until these trials are held, their assets in any of the following (long list of) countries will be seized - and used as reparations for rebuilding Ukraine.
Seize their yachts, their villas, reduce their playground to their dachas again. Until this Putin regime is over and the tanks return back inside Russia's accepted international borders, we should be determined - they will have nowhere to go.
Does simply starting a war amount to a war crime?
Read the unanimous declaration from the Estonian Parliament yesterday for chapter and verse.
Has China said anything? The position China takes is likely decisive.
They've said that it's not accurate to call it an invasion because "the history is complex".
Makes it clear that they have no interest in seeing Russia's aggression contained, because they have in mind future aggression of their own.
Understandably we're all concerned about what's next for Eastern Europe in the years ahead, but we also have to be thinking ahead to likely Chinese aggression too.
Was Nick Robinson in Kyiv? R4 have just lost the connection to him.
A man as deranged as Putin won’t stop at Ukraine. He’ll want the Baltics next.
I think we are all underestimating just how much the geopolitical landscape of Europe has shifted overnight. There is a real risk of this spilling over into NATO countries
Who is hurt if Russian entities are denied access to SWIFT? The answer is, western (largely German) businesses with contracts with Russia. This is insufficient reason not to take that action, which we have been told would bring the Russian economy to its knees.
If Russia has a source of whatever it wants and needs from China, Western sanctions are not anything like as effective as we would have hoped. They should still be delivered and with impunity.
Russia has interfered with Western politics for a decade, and we shrugged. Putin knew this day was coming right years ago. We pretended it wasn't. He is prepared.
I am not sure that is true, and Russia becoming dependent on the China trade carries its own risks for them.
Russia is still a European country, with the weight of its population, trade and culture part of that, albeit always rather ambivalent and semi-detached.
China also has large dependencies on the West. What helps both of them is division. That's why a Trump victory in 2024 would be so totally disastrous. Europe - including the UK - should be planning for that now behind the scenes.
Has Mrs Heathener explained how this fits with her adamant prediction that “Putin will not invade”
I said Putin will invade, he has invaded. I still can’t quite believe he’s insane enough to occupy the entire country. What’s the point? He will want a quick war, secure air superiority, annexe a couple of provinces, regime change in Kiev. Then retreat but with menacing control of everything. Ukraine will be Belarus 2.0
He will then wait and expect us to tire of sanctions and heavy defence expenditure.
I thought he would take most of Eastern Ukraine.
But, maybe he takes the whole country, but allows the borders with the EU to remain open.
Simultaneously, this rids him of the most troublesome.
And causes a large flow of refugees into the EU (into countries not especially keen to have an long-term influx of Ukrainians, such as Poland.)
Joint statement by the three Baltic foreign ministers 🇪🇪@eliimets, 🇱🇻@edgarsrinkevics, 🇱🇹 @GLandsbergis in support of Ukraine 🇺🇦, condemning in a strongest possible way the open large scale Russian aggression against the independent, peaceful and democratic Ukraine
“ We, the foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania condemn in a strongest possible way the open large scale Russian aggression against the independent, peaceful and democratic Ukraine. This act of aggression is not acceptable, it's a blatant violation of the international law, of all international norms and a crime against Ukrainian people that we condemn. All of us in the whole international community need to condemn it in a strongest possible way, to impose strongest possible sanctions on Russia, including disengaging Russia from SWIFT, isolating it politically and be firm in our support to the sovereignty, territorial integrity of independent Ukraine. We would need to urgently provide Ukrainian people with weapons, ammunition and any other kind of military support to defend itself as well as economic, financial and political assistance and support, humanitarian aid. In this difficult moment we stand united with the people of Ukraine. Dear Ukrainian friends, we are in your historic capital Kyiv, we support you and do anything possible so that Man SO 7Ukraini! 17 209 1 553 1
They are the ones who should be driving the responses, as the most under threat, with full backing of larger allies. Otherwise why spend all this time helping them go Western in the first place.
Joint statement by the three Baltic foreign ministers 🇪🇪@eliimets, 🇱🇻@edgarsrinkevics, 🇱🇹 @GLandsbergis in support of Ukraine 🇺🇦, condemning in a strongest possible way the open large scale Russian aggression against the independent, peaceful and democratic Ukraine
“ We, the foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania condemn in a strongest possible way the open large scale Russian aggression against the independent, peaceful and democratic Ukraine. This act of aggression is not acceptable, it's a blatant violation of the international law, of all international norms and a crime against Ukrainian people that we condemn. All of us in the whole international community need to condemn it in a strongest possible way, to impose strongest possible sanctions on Russia, including disengaging Russia from SWIFT, isolating it politically and be firm in our support to the sovereignty, territorial integrity of independent Ukraine. We would need to urgently provide Ukrainian people with weapons, ammunition and any other kind of military support to defend itself as well as economic, financial and political assistance and support, humanitarian aid. In this difficult moment we stand united with the people of Ukraine. Dear Ukrainian friends, we are in your historic capital Kyiv, we support you and do anything possible so that Man SO 7Ukraini! 17 209 1 553 1
They are the ones who should be driving the responses, as the most under threat, with full backing of larger allies. Otherwise why spend all this time helping them go Western in the first place.
If we let the Baltic States fall, then NATO is effectively finished.
Comments
Shut down everything and anything to do with Russia. Total asset seizure etc.
I wonder if Chinese concerns over recognising the breakaway regions played a part in decision for a full invasion. China may be more comfortable with a puppet Ukrainian regime backed by Russian tanks, than enclaves claiming and getting independence.
No military skills, a history of proceeding over slaughter, and pushing the plastic markers across a map.
Given his states in furniture he is probably, literally, doing it from an armchair....
My suggestions FWIW:
1. Large-scale NATO troop movements into NATO countries at potential risk. The reason that Putin feels able to attack Ukraine is that they aren't in NATO and we've repeatedly made clear that we won't defend it militarily. It needs to be crystal clear that that isn't the position in NATO countries.
2. Blanket financial and economic sanctions. I'm not an expert in this area, but I'd use every available financial and trade barrier, including retrospective legislation if necessary to freeze Russian assets.
3. Private channels to the Russian leadership on how to climb down from this if there's a palace coup or other changes in the leadership there. What sanctions would we remove if they did X? What precisely are our conditions?
I would not ban RT or deny air time to people who may disagree, including Farage or Corbyn or anyone else. We are a democracy, we are not at war ourselves and people remain free to express an opinion. It's the main way we distinguish ourselves from oligarchies, and if we lapse into censorship we undermine our own case.
It's true that China is now a serious economic power in a way that it wasn't before, but that hasn't had a lot of impact on this particular crisis, except for somewhat blunting the effect of sanctions.
I think this looks more like a resumption of Cold War rules, which were suspended when Russia collapsed. There's always the terrifying risk that nuclear deterrence will fail and the Russians will either successfully salami-slice their way past the NATO red lines or try to do that and inadvertently escalate into nuclear armageddon. But that was true all the way through the Cold War.
Since he became PM we have had
1 Plague
2 War
3 Ukraine supplies 10% of the World's wheat so famine is coming
When will this Monkey Paw just luck off...
But perhaps he could yet be Neville Chamberlain........
We have to strengthen our defences. And we have to be prepared to fight for all the countries in NATO. If not, Russia will keep going. Putin wants the old Soviet Empire back and those borders did not end at Ukraine.
Thoughts and prayers to those with family and friends in Ukraine.
Reaching back to x hundred years old fairy tales of the history of your country to start slaughtering your neighbours is bit pencils-in-nose-underpants-on-your-head, though, isn't it?
Shocking how many mugs swallow the “Nuclear Deterrent” (sic) propaganda. Their equivalents in Russia are cheering on Putin.
Orwell had England sussed.
But to be honest these are probably the least of our problems.
I don't see how this is contained and does not spill into a war across half of eastern europe.
Any bank, financial services company, trust company, law firm in Europe (and looking at you too Switzerland) should be legally obliged, with threat of closure and prison for directors, to identify assets owned and controlled byRussian passport holders.
All these assets should be frozen and in the case of houses and cars and jets, seized.
It should then be required to unfreeze that the Ultimate Beneficial Owner proves that they have no ties with the Russian gov, pay no fees, licences or commissions to any actors in the Russian state or belonging to the Russian state or its actors outside Russian territory.
Then there should be a final requirement to unfreeze that the UBO makes a public declaration condemning Putin and his regime and publicly confirming that they will not carry out business or support any Russian state entities whilst Putin remains in charge.
If they don’t want to then they can fuck off. If they are already anti Putin then they shouldn’t have a problem with it and would already know they are potential targets so very little changes.
The only way to stop Putin is to make it so expensive for those in his mafia who support him that they have to act.
No more Knightsbridge, Champs Elysee, villas in South of France, ski chalets, private jets registered in IOM.
It’s against many of my instincts but these are drastic times.
We can only hope that internal forces within Russian governing elite will somehow end him before the whole of eastern europe is razed to the ground. Or worse.
Russia has interfered with Western politics for a decade, and we shrugged. Putin knew this day was coming right years ago. We pretended it wasn't. He is prepared.
Remember the Sudetenland? Too many clearly forgot. Remember that the next time a “muscular Unionist” (sic) proposes the partition of Scotland. They’re not the good guys.
Obviously this will have to change if China moves against Taiwan, but so far it hasn't.
Refighting the Brexit War is not going to help to defend the Baltic States.
Lovely I'm sure those words by Marr might be to someone, somewhere they mean nothing to me.
Say it like it is. A fascist dictator thug in charge of a mafia gangster state has ordered his troops to invade and conquer another.
This will be over one day and the initial reaction will subside.
If Germany, for example is cut off from Russian gas, the economy will collapse - it's 35% of energy usage (IIRC).
It might mean we need to put 100s of 1000s of troops from NATO into Eastern Europe. I know that provocative but Putin as a classic bully will take what he can from the weak. A show of re-armament is the language he understands.
ny times blog
[1] Gotta talk about Brexit I suppose. Wouldn't be a PB thread without it.
Nuclear weapons really have proven to be a double edged sword (if not a sword of Damocles) on world peace. Sure, they may have prevented large scale war between great powers since 1945 (a few bumps in the road, but isolated bumps). They have, by and large, made the world more careful in waging global war. To paraphrase, without nukes, it would be a lot easier to kick this new Tsar's backside. But if my Aunt had balls she'd be my Uncle and the spectre of nuclear annihilation exists.
Funnily enough the post code is in Keir Starmer’s constituency - a few blameless streets in St Pancras.
https://www.doogal.co.uk/ShowMap.php?postcode=NW1 1EQ
The Cameron-Clegg ministry was just as culpable as the ministries before and after.
And then there is of course Mr Clegg’s Facebook…
Democracies need to hang together, whatever their trade arrangements.
The American deep state needs to get Trump into an orange jump suit as soon as possible. This is no time for squeamishness.
🇪🇪 🏴 🇪🇺
Solidarity with our Baltic cousins.
If he doesn't step up to plate on going a lot lot further today, then you have to wonder why not.
Seize their yachts, their villas, reduce their playground to their dachas again. Until this Putin regime is over and the tanks return back inside Russia's accepted international borders, we should be determined - they will have nowhere to go.
The security council cannot continue and without that what is left?
Most things the answer is in the middle of two extremes., or blame to be shared around. Not always.
Talk of 'contributing' to this is among the silliest arguments. If I input 1% to an argument it would be true to say i have 'contributed' to it, but rather overegging my role in affairs.
A geopolitical decision 25 years ago might 'contribute' to the course of history, or a Ukrainian stepping on Putin's shoe 9 years ago, but would not be very significant or relevant when analysing matters.
Joint statement by the three Baltic foreign ministers 🇪🇪@eliimets, 🇱🇻@edgarsrinkevics, 🇱🇹 @GLandsbergis in support of Ukraine 🇺🇦, condemning in a strongest possible way the open large scale Russian aggression against the independent, peaceful and democratic Ukraine
“ We, the foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania condemn in a strongest possible
way the open large scale Russian aggression
against the independent, peaceful and
democratic Ukraine. This act of aggression is
not acceptable, it's a blatant violation of the
international law, of all international norms
and a crime against Ukrainian people that we
condemn. All of us in the whole international
community need to condemn it in a strongest
possible way, to impose strongest possible
sanctions on Russia, including disengaging
Russia from SWIFT, isolating it politically and
be firm in our support to the sovereignty,
territorial integrity of independent Ukraine.
We would need to urgently provide Ukrainian
people with weapons, ammunition and any
other kind of military support to defend itself
as well as economic, financial and political
assistance and support, humanitarian aid. In
this difficult moment we stand united with the
people of Ukraine. Dear Ukrainian friends, we
are in your historic capital Kyiv, we support
you and do anything possible so that
Man
SO 7Ukraini! 17 209
1 553
1
https://twitter.com/MFAestonia/status/1496738947745079299
And we are where we are, with Putin doing what he wants and threatening WWIII on us all.
And BTW, I try to make a distinction between the Russian people and the Russian leadership.
I said Putin will invade, he has invaded. I still can’t quite believe he’s insane enough to occupy the entire country. What’s the point? He will want a quick war, secure air superiority, annexe a couple of provinces, regime change in Kiev. Then retreat but with menacing control of everything. Ukraine will be Belarus 2.0
He will then wait and expect us to tire of sanctions and heavy defence expenditure.
Napoleon literally ran out of able bodied men to provide Glory.
Nearly all Great Men devolve, when you read their story, into gangsters on the make.
It is funny to remember the shock of translating the nicknames the august Roman Senators used, and realise that Kid Butcher was "Pompey The Great"s street name...
I've no idea where we find the money to take defence spending up towards 3% as a first step, but a way has to be found.
Also agree with Nick P on NATO. We need large scale troop movements into front edge NATO countries now.
The law is more concerned about ius in bello, rather than ius ad bellum.
Don’t give us your repentance now. Atonement is a long way off.
Make no mistake, this is a new Cold War at best. Lets just try to stop it becoming WW3.
Elagu Eesti
Trump also may not be bothered about Putin but he is bothered about Communist China. Indeed Trump would even go to war with China if it invaded Taiwan based on his rhetoric which Biden would not, merely imposing sanctions on China as he will do on Russia after the Ukraine invasion.
Remember the last time we were at war with Russia in the Crimean War it was us, France and Turkey v Russia with no US involvement
Russia is still a European country, with the weight of its population, trade and culture part of that, albeit always rather ambivalent and semi-detached.
Putin would never invade France or the UK, because we have nukes. Because he would seriously risk the entire obliteration of Russia, and tens of millions dead
The question is, how wide and strong is NATO’s combined nuclear umbrella over non-nuke states? Would we launch nukes to stop an invasion of Germany, or Italy? I think yes.
The further east you go, however, the weaker the moral will of the West.
Makes it clear that they have no interest in seeing Russia's aggression contained, because they have in mind future aggression of their own.
Understandably we're all concerned about what's next for Eastern Europe in the years ahead, but we also have to be thinking ahead to likely Chinese aggression too.
Was Nick Robinson in Kyiv? R4 have just lost the connection to him.
I think we are all underestimating just how much the geopolitical landscape of Europe has shifted overnight. There is a real risk of this spilling over into NATO countries
But, maybe he takes the whole country, but allows the borders with the EU to remain open.
Simultaneously, this rids him of the most troublesome.
And causes a large flow of refugees into the EU (into countries not especially keen to have an long-term influx of Ukrainians, such as Poland.)
Putin will have already factored in some sanctions. We need to do things he doesn't expect.
The Russian psyche is that pain is good if the other side takes more pain.