Mr. Pulpstar, similar here. And the winds are the highest they've been during the run of storms.
Here in Hampshire there seems to be a lot of trees down again, at least across the railway line as all trains are cancelled and the company is advising people not to travel
I had to repair a fence on saturday, fixed a temporary repair spike and all ok to get to the better weather to do a proper job.
Said spike has been mashed by the winds last night - completely sheared off, and so back to square one.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
Mr. Tubbs, I'm glad that the Friday before last I took advantage of the only non-stormy day in about a fortnight to cut down some tree branches too close to the telephone wire. Suspect they might've caused problems given the trio of storms we've had since.
Mr. Pulpstar, similar here. And the winds are the highest they've been during the run of storms.
Very, very heavy rain last night. Just about as heavy as I've experienced anywhere. Didn't last very long, but long enough to damage the Cole dwelling. Or at least find the gaps in it's defences! Fortunately, though, not in the main structure.
Good luck with the repairs. Was that the cloudburst I was obsessing rather boringly about yesterday. Although noticeable, it tended to fizzle out a bit over South Wales and the South West and through the central Midlands, but stayed really strong further East and scanned southwards across Essex between around about 5.30-6.30pm.
As mentioned, it was the leading cold front behind which Franklin came in, on which the sharp 10 minute rain band formed in GB across the Southern Uplands and Northumberland and travelled as that rain band down almost the entirety of England and Wales. Hit me in Huddersfield just before 3pm (no leaks this time) and Elland Road about the same time.
Thanks for good wishes, one and all. I think Mr P R is right; as I posted earlier the rain was as heavy as I’ve ever seen, and I’ve experienced heavy rain in Bangkok. And it was about 6pm. Our ‘structural’ problem is that we have a ‘sort of’ conservatory running the width of the bungalow. The roof is sound; we’ve had problems there in the past, but about 18 months ago, after a couple of false starts, found a very competent roofer, and he sorted out all the issues. However last night water apparently came in through the junction between the wall and floor. So we have to find out how we can reseal that junction. And it’s so close to next doors wall that we can’t get at it from the outside.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I’m intrigued by the isolation for non vaccinated travellers
If there is no obligation for people to isolate when they have the virus, surely there is no point in quarantine?
Mail: At least two cabinet ministers will withdraw support for the Prime Minister if he is handed a fixed penalty notice in relation to Covid rule breaches, it has been reported.
It's about lying to Parliament....there was no coming back from that.
I will believe it when I see them literally announcing their resignation from cabinet on air.
Otherwise it is the usual rubbish. None of them have the guts.
President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.
Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.
Or the departure of Merkel....
Germany is hobbled by history from fulfilling the role, Britain has marginalised itself and will likely soon be struggling to remain whole, and Italy and Spain are, well, Italy and Spain.
The tabloid knee jerk antipathy to France that fed directly into Brexit has delivered France a huge opportunity.
France has long been Europe’s lead interlocutor with Russia - U.K.-Russian relationships are and have been very poor for a long time - this has got nothing to do with Brexit however much you might wish it it be.
Mr. Pulpstar, similar here. And the winds are the highest they've been during the run of storms.
Here in Hampshire there seems to be a lot of trees down again, at least across the railway line as all trains are cancelled and the company is advising people not to travel
I had to repair a fence on saturday, fixed a temporary repair spike and all ok to get to the better weather to do a proper job.
Said spike has been mashed by the winds last night - completely sheared off, and so back to square one.
I would advise hammering a stake into the ground, at a distance from the fence equal to its height and a rope from the stake to the fence.
Of course this really works if you neighbours the other side do the same. A number of people locally have done this, cooperatively.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
Ending free LFTs, as has been trailed, seems a bit premature. If the aim is to trust people to do the right thing, it seems reasonable to allow them to know if they are infected. Instead, the idea seems to be to allow Covid to infect whoever is available, in the apparent belief that each variant will be milder than the last.
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
Cartoons (apart from Matt and Marf), are very rarely as clever as they think they are.
It does exist but hospitalisations are low now as most people have been double vaccinated and had their boosters. We do not impose legal restrictions because of colds or winter flu
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
Cartoons (apart from Matt and Marf), are very rarely as clever as they think they are.
We must hold cartoonists to a higher standard of truth than mere prime ministers.
Is her comment “a political comment or a scientific comment”?
I could quote my A&E (consultant level) doctor friends who have been wanting everyone to get on and live with covid but they wouldn’t fit your narrative.
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
Cartoons (apart from Matt and Marf), are very rarely as clever as they think they are.
It's not a subtle genre. You need to make sure everyone gets the point, and typically need to please one side in particular, with a single image and a brief bit of text. So the point needs to be basic as well as unsubtle.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
Ending free LFTs, as has been trailed, seems a bit premature. If the aim is to trust people to do the right thing, it seems reasonable to allow them to know if they are infected. Instead, the idea seems to be to allow Covid to infect whoever is available, in the apparent belief that each variant will be milder than the last.
PCR tests are the expensive one, with the lab stuff.
LFTs could be dolled out via the GPs, ending the I-need-37-tests-a-day stuff
Mr. Pulpstar, similar here. And the winds are the highest they've been during the run of storms.
Very, very heavy rain last night. Just about as heavy as I've experienced anywhere. Didn't last very long, but long enough to damage the Cole dwelling. Or at least find the gaps in it's defences! Fortunately, though, not in the main structure.
Good luck with the repairs. Was that the cloudburst I was obsessing rather boringly about yesterday. Although noticeable, it tended to fizzle out a bit over South Wales and the South West and through the central Midlands, but stayed really strong further East and scanned southwards across Essex between around about 5.30-6.30pm.
As mentioned, it was the leading cold front behind which Franklin came in, on which the sharp 10 minute rain band formed in GB across the Southern Uplands and Northumberland and travelled as that rain band down almost the entirety of England and Wales. Hit me in Huddersfield just before 3pm (no leaks this time) and Elland Road about the same time.
Thanks for good wishes, one and all. I think Mr P R is right; as I posted earlier the rain was as heavy as I’ve ever seen, and I’ve experienced heavy rain in Bangkok. And it was about 6pm. Our ‘structural’ problem is that we have a ‘sort of’ conservatory running the width of the bungalow. The roof is sound; we’ve had problems there in the past, but about 18 months ago, after a couple of false starts, found a very competent roofer, and he sorted out all the issues. However last night water apparently came in through the junction between the wall and floor. So we have to find out how we can reseal that junction. And it’s so close to next doors wall that we can’t get at it from the outside.
Leak around where my flue goes into the roof is my tale of woe from this weekend's storm.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
Every single metric for COVID has been declining, solidly, for weeks, now.
For those that want to retain the restrictions - what is your criteria for when the remaining restrictions should be removed?
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
When Denmark get rid of COVID measures - proportionate and sensible reduction in restrictions that will help over the long term.
When the UK gets rid of measures - dangerous experiment and they're killing us, why can't we keep the protections forever, Boris is killing the Queen (who I hate anyway!).
Almost always these statements come from the same people. It's laughable.
His motivations include that, but all the indicators are moving in the right direction aren't they? Infections, deaths, hospitalizations, with the latter 2 also way down on previous waves even at the peak of this wave?
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
When Denmark get rid of COVID measures - proportionate and sensible reduction in restrictions that will help over the long term.
When the UK gets rid of measures - dangerous experiment and they're killing us, why can't we keep the protections forever, Boris is killing the Queen (who I hate anyway!).
Almost always these statements come from the same people. It's laughable.
Can you name any specific people who have come out with those statements?
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
When Denmark get rid of COVID measures - proportionate and sensible reduction in restrictions that will help over the long term.
When the UK gets rid of measures - dangerous experiment and they're killing us, why can't we keep the protections forever, Boris is killing the Queen (who I hate anyway!).
Almost always these statements come from the same people. It's laughable.
Can you name any specific people who have come out with those statements?
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
I hope that is basically correct. I think the messaging around isolation will be that its not a legal issue, but down to personal responsibility.
Does present issues for those who can't WFH and perhaps have unsympathetic employers though. I think realistically we need to change the culture around working when unwell. For those who can WFH there should rarely be a need to attend a workplace with a cold etc. Don't know what the solution is for those who cannot WFH though.
And sadly there will be some who swing the lead with sickness.
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
When Denmark get rid of COVID measures - proportionate and sensible reduction in restrictions that will help over the long term.
When the UK gets rid of measures - dangerous experiment and they're killing us, why can't we keep the protections forever, Boris is killing the Queen (who I hate anyway!).
Almost always these statements come from the same people. It's laughable.
Can you name any specific people who have come out with those statements?
Start with a search for #FBPE on Twitter
Well, no, Twitter is nearly unusable now for those of us without accounts.
Mr. Pulpstar, similar here. And the winds are the highest they've been during the run of storms.
Here in Hampshire there seems to be a lot of trees down again, at least across the railway line as all trains are cancelled and the company is advising people not to travel
I had to repair a fence on saturday, fixed a temporary repair spike and all ok to get to the better weather to do a proper job.
Said spike has been mashed by the winds last night - completely sheared off, and so back to square one.
I would advise hammering a stake into the ground, at a distance from the fence equal to its height and a rope from the stake to the fence.
Of course this really works if you neighbours the other side do the same. A number of people locally have done this, cooperatively.
Too late now, sadly... I will be employing the big hole and lots of concrete approach when I can!
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
When Denmark get rid of COVID measures - proportionate and sensible reduction in restrictions that will help over the long term.
When the UK gets rid of measures - dangerous experiment and they're killing us, why can't we keep the protections forever, Boris is killing the Queen (who I hate anyway!).
Almost always these statements come from the same people. It's laughable.
Can you name any specific people who have come out with those statements?
Start with a search for #FBPE on Twitter
Well, no, Twitter is nearly unusable now for those of us without accounts.
That’s true, they keep making it more and more difficult, now you cant scroll more than one screen without the pop up asking to sign in. New management there not particularly keen on non-members.
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
When Denmark get rid of COVID measures - proportionate and sensible reduction in restrictions that will help over the long term.
When the UK gets rid of measures - dangerous experiment and they're killing us, why can't we keep the protections forever, Boris is killing the Queen (who I hate anyway!).
Almost always these statements come from the same people. It's laughable.
Can you name any specific people who have come out with those statements?
Start with a search for #FBPE on Twitter
Well, no, Twitter is nearly unusable now for those of us without accounts.
You can buy time on Twitter, when the blocking box appears, by pressing sign up and then dismissing the box.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
Many people buy all wheel drive cars and put normal tyres on them which takes them almost back to where they started. For most people if they need an all wheel drive car they need appropriate tyres. If they don't then they don't need an all wheel drive car.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
When Denmark get rid of COVID measures - proportionate and sensible reduction in restrictions that will help over the long term.
When the UK gets rid of measures - dangerous experiment and they're killing us, why can't we keep the protections forever, Boris is killing the Queen (who I hate anyway!).
Almost always these statements come from the same people. It's laughable.
Can you name any specific people who have come out with those statements?
Start with a search for #FBPE on Twitter
Well, no, Twitter is nearly unusable now for those of us without accounts.
That’s true, they keep making it more and more difficult, now you cant scroll more than one screen without the pop up asking to sign in. New management there not particularly keen on non-members.
Press sign up then close the sign-up box that appears next.
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
Many people buy all wheel drive cars and put normal tyres on them which takes them almost back to where they started. For most people if they need an all wheel drive car they need appropriate tyres. If they don't then they don't need an all wheel drive car.
How many people in the UK routinely swap out for winter tyres, if they’re not driving to a ski holiday somewhere in Europe?
Weather is getting utterly vile outside again and house is getting quite chilly despite the heating being on, just had to turn it up more. Seems like Storm Franklin could be worse than Eunice around here at least.
Hope Spring arrives soon. This week's weather has wrecked the plans I'd made for half-term.
Windy.com suggests there's another incoming after this one
Looks to me like we have a steering low over Iceland this week, sending fronts and small systems across us, but nothing too major. Then a temporary ridge of high pressure before the next strong one - currently forecast to graze the NW, so might miss us.
Potentially quite a bit more rain at times. Park here is already saturated with temporary ponds.
Edit: Beginning to pine for SO's drought warning posts.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
Ending free LFTs, as has been trailed, seems a bit premature. If the aim is to trust people to do the right thing, it seems reasonable to allow them to know if they are infected. Instead, the idea seems to be to allow Covid to infect whoever is available, in the apparent belief that each variant will be milder than the last.
That seems to be the plan and why 500,000 immunocompromised people are extremely nervous and worried about this announcement. There is no guarantees it will get milder each time, none whatsoever.
On a side note it's Interesting how Whitty and Valance have completely disappeared off the face of the Earth?
We will see what happens, the die is cast. Covid-19 is a fully Political issue and topic now.
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
Many people buy all wheel drive cars and put normal tyres on them which takes them almost back to where they started. For most people if they need an all wheel drive car they need appropriate tyres. If they don't then they don't need an all wheel drive car.
How many people in the UK routinely swap out for winter tyres, if they’re not driving to a ski holiday somewhere in Europe?
Very few I'm sure but I'm not talking about "winter tyres" I'm talking about at least hybrid if not full off-road tyres eg Grabbers.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
I hope that is basically correct. I think the messaging around isolation will be that its not a legal issue, but down to personal responsibility.
Does present issues for those who can't WFH and perhaps have unsympathetic employers though. I think realistically we need to change the culture around working when unwell. For those who can WFH there should rarely be a need to attend a workplace with a cold etc. Don't know what the solution is for those who cannot WFH though.
And sadly there will be some who swing the lead with sickness.
Yes it is about personal responsibility but it's also, as you hint, about economics. As usual, it's the less well off who will struggle to exercise personal responsibility.
A lot of people just can't afford to take time off even if they know they're spreading germs, either because they get no income or because sick pay isn't enough to pay the bills. So they carry on delivering goods or whatever even though they're clearly likely to spread disease. It would be helpful if the government could come up with a proposal to resolve this (not just for Covid, but any transmissible disease).
When this is all over and all the analyses done, I'm confident that it will be the disadvantaged, as ever, who have suffered by far the most physical and economic harm from Covid; while many of us on here, including me, pontificate from the security of our comfortable jobs or retirement.
Given that an estimated 2/3 of the country have had covid in the last two years, and that Johnson is proposing to live with covid, not that we have eradicated covid, I don't think this cartoon or line of attack is as clever as you think it is.
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
Many people buy all wheel drive cars and put normal tyres on them which takes them almost back to where they started. For most people if they need an all wheel drive car they need appropriate tyres. If they don't then they don't need an all wheel drive car.
How many people in the UK routinely swap out for winter tyres, if they’re not driving to a ski holiday somewhere in Europe?
Very few I'm sure but I'm not talking about "winter tyres" I'm talking about at least hybrid if not full off-road tyres eg Grabbers.
A lot of people in the UK don’t understand “winter tyres” and think it’s a case of chunkier grip but it’s not and especially for those living further north it’s something that should be more understood.
It’s not just “bigger/chunkier” grip, the grip pattern is different as it’s designed to improve grip in increased rainfall so it flows differently and can handle dispersing the larger quantities of water expected to a “normal tyre” making it safer.
Also importantly they are made from a different compound mix so they work better in the cold.
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
Many people buy all wheel drive cars and put normal tyres on them which takes them almost back to where they started. For most people if they need an all wheel drive car they need appropriate tyres. If they don't then they don't need an all wheel drive car.
How many people in the UK routinely swap out for winter tyres, if they’re not driving to a ski holiday somewhere in Europe?
Very few I'm sure but I'm not talking about "winter tyres" I'm talking about at least hybrid if not full off-road tyres eg Grabbers.
Proper off-road tyres, a fraction of those with the winter tyres I’d have thought.
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
Many people buy all wheel drive cars and put normal tyres on them which takes them almost back to where they started. For most people if they need an all wheel drive car they need appropriate tyres. If they don't then they don't need an all wheel drive car.
I'm running summer tyres on the Outlander (as I didn't get round to swapping for winters early enough to be worth the bother this year). In December I was one of a very small number of vehicles to make it over the top of Soutra Hill on the A68 in a blizzard. Despite the tyres the electric drive combined with fancy electronics meant that I didn't get stuck. Other vehicles are sat there spinning their wheels and mine just walked past them.
As the plan is to swap the Outlander for a Tesla Model Y this summer I will definitely be sticking winter tyres on it - plenty of room to throw the tyres in the back on route to be swapped at the tyre shack.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
Ending free LFTs, as has been trailed, seems a bit premature. If the aim is to trust people to do the right thing, it seems reasonable to allow them to know if they are infected. Instead, the idea seems to be to allow Covid to infect whoever is available, in the apparent belief that each variant will be milder than the last.
That seems to be the plan and why 500,000 immunocompromised people are extremely nervous and worried about this announcement. There is no guarantees it will get milder each time, none whatsoever.
On a side note it's Interesting how Whitty and Valance have completely disappeared off the face of the Earth?
We will see what happens, the die is cast. Covid-19 is a fully Political issue and topic now.
Its not so much that the variants will get milder but for those with working immune systems repeated exposure means the risk usually gets less each time, until old age when the immune system weakens.
Now that's no good for immuno-compromised folk. I think though that its vital to remember that these people are at risk of other diseases too, not just covid, and will be living their lives in a cautious way already. There is a balance to be struck and not everyone will agree on where that is. Some would have masks forever, outside too (@heathener seems to be on this panel), others would say that now with vaccination and prior infection we are at herd immunity levels, so job done.
We should remember that free testing isn't some gift of the manufacturers to the UK government(s). Its being paid for. Want more money in the NHS? One way that helps is stopping doing a million PCR's a day (its probably not that now, but I can't be arsed to check...).
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Re not getting the unlockdown wrong, More or less was interesting on this, mainly because it wasn't looking at Boris's decision but how wrong the forecast was. The actual figures looked at (deaths, hospitalisations etc) were a 1/3 of the best projection and 1/30 of the worst projection.
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
Ending free LFTs, as has been trailed, seems a bit premature. If the aim is to trust people to do the right thing, it seems reasonable to allow them to know if they are infected. Instead, the idea seems to be to allow Covid to infect whoever is available, in the apparent belief that each variant will be milder than the last.
That seems to be the plan and why 500,000 immunocompromised people are extremely nervous and worried about this announcement. There is no guarantees it will get milder each time, none whatsoever.
On a side note it's Interesting how Whitty and Valance have completely disappeared off the face of the Earth?
We will see what happens, the die is cast. Covid-19 is a fully Political issue and topic now.
Its not so much that the variants will get milder but for those with working immune systems repeated exposure means the risk usually gets less each time, until old age when the immune system weakens.
Now that's no good for immuno-compromised folk. I think though that its vital to remember that these people are at risk of other diseases too, not just covid, and will be living their lives in a cautious way already. There is a balance to be struck and not everyone will agree on where that is. Some would have masks forever, outside too (@heathener seems to be on this panel), others would say that now with vaccination and prior infection we are at herd immunity levels, so job done.
We should remember that free testing isn't some gift of the manufacturers to the UK government(s). Its being paid for. Want more money in the NHS? One way that helps is stopping doing a million PCR's a day (its probably not that now, but I can't be arsed to check...).
The proposal appears to be to maintain PCRs but scrap the cheaper LFTs.
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
Many people buy all wheel drive cars and put normal tyres on them which takes them almost back to where they started. For most people if they need an all wheel drive car they need appropriate tyres. If they don't then they don't need an all wheel drive car.
How many people in the UK routinely swap out for winter tyres, if they’re not driving to a ski holiday somewhere in Europe?
Very few I'm sure but I'm not talking about "winter tyres" I'm talking about at least hybrid if not full off-road tyres eg Grabbers.
AT3s only go down to 50 profile in huge sizes and 70 in normal sizes so they are not much use unless you're driving al Al-Shabab technical with a dushka in the bed. I have Pirelli Cinturato P7s in 225/45R17 on my daily F90 330i and they are good in ice and snow.
I know plenty of people who switch to winter tyres but my top tip is never tell anybody if you've got a tyre machine otherwise you'll spend your fucking life putting other people's winter tyres on.
On the usual panto debate over Covid rules ("oh yes it is! / oh no it isn't!") there are some obvious things that both sides should be able to agree on if they wipe the froth from their mouths and stop shouting:
1. We are well past the peak on Omicron. That all the numbers are collapsing rapidly is what happens when you have an exponential rise on the upside 2. We are testing less as we wind down that operation. Less testing equals less positive results 3. People largely have absolutely had enough of Covid. Three jabs and likely 4 jabs have tamed it - so another promo push to keep people getting jabbed is likely enough for what we have, providing that people don't completely drop their guard 4. Its absolutely the case that the driver for the rapid dropping of restrictions is to throw red meat at the feral backbenchers and save Big Dog.
Are we well over the Omicron spike? Yes. Is it sensible to be scaling back operations? Yes. Is the driver for doing so now in this manner driven by political not medical expediencies? Yes.
What will be fascinating is what happens if another variant breaks out. "Just live with it" may not hold in the early weeks of another exponential curve before we know that its as mild as Omicron turned out to be. Nor will "just follow the science" when they're openly throwing it in the big to save big dog.
Either way, we're doing it, and we hope thats the last we hear of it.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
Every single metric for COVID has been declining, solidly, for weeks, now.
For those that want to retain the restrictions - what is your criteria for when the remaining restrictions should be removed?
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Re not getting the unlockdown wrong, More or less was interesting on this, mainly because it wasn't looking at Boris's decision but how wrong the forecast was. The actual figures looked at (deaths, hospitalisations etc) were a 1/3 of the best projection and 1/30 of the worst projection.
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
Luckily he made the right decision.
A more worrying thing is that the scientists weren't following the scientific evidence in their forecasts.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
I hope that is basically correct. I think the messaging around isolation will be that its not a legal issue, but down to personal responsibility.
Does present issues for those who can't WFH and perhaps have unsympathetic employers though. I think realistically we need to change the culture around working when unwell. For those who can WFH there should rarely be a need to attend a workplace with a cold etc. Don't know what the solution is for those who cannot WFH though.
And sadly there will be some who swing the lead with sickness.
Yes it is about personal responsibility but it's also, as you hint, about economics. As usual, it's the less well off who will struggle to exercise personal responsibility.
A lot of people just can't afford to take time off even if they know they're spreading germs, either because they get no income or because sick pay isn't enough to pay the bills. So they carry on delivering goods or whatever even though they're clearly likely to spread disease. It would be helpful if the government could come up with a proposal to resolve this (not just for Covid, but any transmissible disease).
When this is all over and all the analyses done, I'm confident that it will be the disadvantaged, as ever, who have suffered by far the most physical and economic harm from Covid; while many of us on here, including me, pontificate from the security of our comfortable jobs or retirement.
Great post and it really disappoints me that the rhetoric of the early pandemic had been abandoned by this government. We talked about key workers as heroes but the government has flunked the opportunity to reward them by reforming sick pay. My mum worked in a dentist where the company doesn't provide sick pay. She had to go to work regardless of how she felt and potentially infect dozens of people a day. She took early retirement despite not really being able to afford it because she has lung problems and didn't want to be put at risk anymore.
For those crowing about Boris "getting it right" I'd say that rushing people back to the shame shitty situation they found themselves in pre pandemic is a poor reward for the sacrifices they made.
- An alert system for when seasonal respiratory (and other?) viruses are circulating at high levels, encouraging very limited voluntary use of masks at such times, especially public transport, and distancing. - Make clear that COVID, although blunted, remains at high levels, masking remains encouraged but voluntary and LFTs remain available. - The withdrawal of the COVID alert, when government removes any remaining mask advice and LFT support, will be made clear once the virus is circulating at low levels. - Yes, end legal mandation of COVID isolation, but emphasise continued LFT use and that anyone testing positive really should eliminate outside contact as much as possible, and support school and workplace policies that firm that up. - Develop a fixed price, cheap, (e.g. 30p per unit) LFT offer in case of further waves, AND for seasonal flu. Make these available whenever alert levels are raised. - NHS: move infection control for COVID in healthcare settings towards what you want it to be long term, to get back towards full treatment volume. Envision something like already existing seasonal flu controls, but with some bolstering (again e.g. mask and LFT). Again, for enhanced protocols to be used whenever alert level is raised. - SHIELDERS: They are frightened to bloody death. No package can omit spending cash helping the vulnerable with their anxiities and the fact life is returning scarily to normal around them. Info campaigns on the known courtesy to not don't visit that care home / hospital / vulnerable person with a cold. Access to a certain supply of LFTs for friends and relatives, an 'as often as it takes' commitment to boosting. Bloody tell them that Sainsbury's isn't dangerous, you inhale bugger all of another peorson's breath, masks or no, as you flit quickly through those aisles.
Truth is life was always tricky for. shielders even prior to COVID.
Weather is getting utterly vile outside again and house is getting quite chilly despite the heating being on, just had to turn it up more. Seems like Storm Franklin could be worse than Eunice around here at least.
Hope Spring arrives soon. This week's weather has wrecked the plans I'd made for half-term.
Windy.com suggests there's another incoming after this one
Looks to me like we have a steering low over Iceland this week, sending fronts and small systems across us, but nothing too major. Then a temporary ridge of high pressure before the next strong one - currently forecast to graze the NW, so might miss us.
Potentially quite a bit more rain at times. Park here is already saturated with temporary ponds.
Edit: Beginning to pine for SO's drought warning posts.
Who was the poster who was forever forecasting an imminent new ice-age?
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Re not getting the unlockdown wrong, More or less was interesting on this, mainly because it wasn't looking at Boris's decision but how wrong the forecast was. The actual figures looked at (deaths, hospitalisations etc) were a 1/3 of the best projection and 1/30 of the worst projection.
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
Luckily he made the right decision.
"following scientific advice" has always been a red herring. The best that science can tell you is what is happening and what will happen and why. What should be done about it has always been a political question. Doing whatever the dodgy modellers said was necessary to minimise deaths from this one specific cause was always a political decision.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
Ending free LFTs, as has been trailed, seems a bit premature. If the aim is to trust people to do the right thing, it seems reasonable to allow them to know if they are infected. Instead, the idea seems to be to allow Covid to infect whoever is available, in the apparent belief that each variant will be milder than the last.
That seems to be the plan and why 500,000 immunocompromised people are extremely nervous and worried about this announcement. There is no guarantees it will get milder each time, none whatsoever.
On a side note it's Interesting how Whitty and Valance have completely disappeared off the face of the Earth?
We will see what happens, the die is cast. Covid-19 is a fully Political issue and topic now.
Its not so much that the variants will get milder but for those with working immune systems repeated exposure means the risk usually gets less each time, until old age when the immune system weakens.
Now that's no good for immuno-compromised folk. I think though that its vital to remember that these people are at risk of other diseases too, not just covid, and will be living their lives in a cautious way already. There is a balance to be struck and not everyone will agree on where that is. Some would have masks forever, outside too (@heathener seems to be on this panel), others would say that now with vaccination and prior infection we are at herd immunity levels, so job done.
We should remember that free testing isn't some gift of the manufacturers to the UK government(s). Its being paid for. Want more money in the NHS? One way that helps is stopping doing a million PCR's a day (its probably not that now, but I can't be arsed to check...).
The proposal appears to be to maintain PCRs but scrap the cheaper LFTs.
I assume that would be PCR at point of admission to hospital.
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
Many people buy all wheel drive cars and put normal tyres on them which takes them almost back to where they started. For most people if they need an all wheel drive car they need appropriate tyres. If they don't then they don't need an all wheel drive car.
How many people in the UK routinely swap out for winter tyres, if they’re not driving to a ski holiday somewhere in Europe?
Very few I'm sure but I'm not talking about "winter tyres" I'm talking about at least hybrid if not full off-road tyres eg Grabbers.
AT3s only go down to 50 profile in huge sizes and 70 in normal sizes so they are not much use unless you're driving al Al-Shabab technical with a dushka in the bed. I have Pirelli Cinturato P7s in 225/45R17 on my daily F90 330i and they are good in ice and snow.
I know plenty of people who switch to winter tyres but my top tip is never tell anybody if you've got a tyre machine otherwise you'll spend your fucking life putting other people's winter tyres on.
Why bother with changing the tyres? Just have two sets of wheels like everyone did in Switzerland when I lived there. If you don’t want to or can’t store them yourself your local garage would look after them for about £50 a year so you just drove there and got them to change the wheels.
I always used to find it weird my first winter there why so many people had cars with the shitty basic black or grey steel and was informed that a lot of people just buy the cheapest shittiest wheels for their winter wheels as they get messed up anyway.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Re not getting the unlockdown wrong, More or less was interesting on this, mainly because it wasn't looking at Boris's decision but how wrong the forecast was. The actual figures looked at (deaths, hospitalisations etc) were a 1/3 of the best projection and 1/30 of the worst projection.
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
Luckily he made the right decision.
A more worrying thing is that the scientists weren't following the scientific evidence in their forecasts.
The "science" was doomed to go straight in the bin once a lead scientist admitted at the end of last year that they were prejudicing the "science" because scenarios saying that things would be OK were and I quote "not useful".
Good science is following the evidence, even if it goes against your preconceptions or agenda. The second you start putting your thumb on the scale, it isn't good science anymore.
On the usual panto debate over Covid rules ("oh yes it is! / oh no it isn't!") there are some obvious things that both sides should be able to agree on if they wipe the froth from their mouths and stop shouting:
1. We are well past the peak on Omicron. That all the numbers are collapsing rapidly is what happens when you have an exponential rise on the upside 2. We are testing less as we wind down that operation. Less testing equals less positive results 3. People largely have absolutely had enough of Covid. Three jabs and likely 4 jabs have tamed it - so another promo push to keep people getting jabbed is likely enough for what we have, providing that people don't completely drop their guard 4. Its absolutely the case that the driver for the rapid dropping of restrictions is to throw red meat at the feral backbenchers and save Big Dog.
Are we well over the Omicron spike? Yes. Is it sensible to be scaling back operations? Yes. Is the driver for doing so now in this manner driven by political not medical expediencies? Yes.
What will be fascinating is what happens if another variant breaks out. "Just live with it" may not hold in the early weeks of another exponential curve before we know that its as mild as Omicron turned out to be. Nor will "just follow the science" when they're openly throwing it in the big to save big dog.
Either way, we're doing it, and we hope thats the last we hear of it.
Is the ending of restrictions in Scandinavia also for political reasons?
On a related note, my daughter's infant school has finally stopped asking parents to wear masks for drop off. Compliance was already only about 50% - but this morning, of the c. 150 parents I saw, only two were still wearing masks (both east Asian). Most people will do what they're told to do, and many people will do what they're asked to do. But give people freedom, and almost everybody chooses not to wear masks.
On the usual panto debate over Covid rules ("oh yes it is! / oh no it isn't!") there are some obvious things that both sides should be able to agree on if they wipe the froth from their mouths and stop shouting:
1. We are well past the peak on Omicron. That all the numbers are collapsing rapidly is what happens when you have an exponential rise on the upside 2. We are testing less as we wind down that operation. Less testing equals less positive results 3. People largely have absolutely had enough of Covid. Three jabs and likely 4 jabs have tamed it - so another promo push to keep people getting jabbed is likely enough for what we have, providing that people don't completely drop their guard 4. Its absolutely the case that the driver for the rapid dropping of restrictions is to throw red meat at the feral backbenchers and save Big Dog.
Are we well over the Omicron spike? Yes. Is it sensible to be scaling back operations? Yes. Is the driver for doing so now in this manner driven by political not medical expediencies? Yes.
What will be fascinating is what happens if another variant breaks out. "Just live with it" may not hold in the early weeks of another exponential curve before we know that its as mild as Omicron turned out to be. Nor will "just follow the science" when they're openly throwing it in the big to save big dog.
Either way, we're doing it, and we hope thats the last we hear of it.
On 4, are the other European nations who are doing the same doing it to save Johnson's career too?
I don't deny that politics is playing a role here, but its also the right time to do this. The absence of outrage from the scientists is striking. Beyond a few NHS doctors and the odd scientist, on the whole the reaction is this its probably the right time.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
Ending free LFTs, as has been trailed, seems a bit premature. If the aim is to trust people to do the right thing, it seems reasonable to allow them to know if they are infected. Instead, the idea seems to be to allow Covid to infect whoever is available, in the apparent belief that each variant will be milder than the last.
That seems to be the plan and why 500,000 immunocompromised people are extremely nervous and worried about this announcement. There is no guarantees it will get milder each time, none whatsoever.
On a side note it's Interesting how Whitty and Valance have completely disappeared off the face of the Earth?
We will see what happens, the die is cast. Covid-19 is a fully Political issue and topic now.
Its not so much that the variants will get milder but for those with working immune systems repeated exposure means the risk usually gets less each time, until old age when the immune system weakens.
Now that's no good for immuno-compromised folk. I think though that its vital to remember that these people are at risk of other diseases too, not just covid, and will be living their lives in a cautious way already. There is a balance to be struck and not everyone will agree on where that is. Some would have masks forever, outside too (@heathener seems to be on this panel), others would say that now with vaccination and prior infection we are at herd immunity levels, so job done.
We should remember that free testing isn't some gift of the manufacturers to the UK government(s). Its being paid for. Want more money in the NHS? One way that helps is stopping doing a million PCR's a day (its probably not that now, but I can't be arsed to check...).
The proposal appears to be to maintain PCRs but scrap the cheaper LFTs.
I assume that would be PCR at point of admission to hospital.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
I hope that is basically correct. I think the messaging around isolation will be that its not a legal issue, but down to personal responsibility.
Does present issues for those who can't WFH and perhaps have unsympathetic employers though. I think realistically we need to change the culture around working when unwell. For those who can WFH there should rarely be a need to attend a workplace with a cold etc. Don't know what the solution is for those who cannot WFH though.
And sadly there will be some who swing the lead with sickness.
Yes it is about personal responsibility but it's also, as you hint, about economics. As usual, it's the less well off who will struggle to exercise personal responsibility.
A lot of people just can't afford to take time off even if they know they're spreading germs, either because they get no income or because sick pay isn't enough to pay the bills. So they carry on delivering goods or whatever even though they're clearly likely to spread disease. It would be helpful if the government could come up with a proposal to resolve this (not just for Covid, but any transmissible disease).
When this is all over and all the analyses done, I'm confident that it will be the disadvantaged, as ever, who have suffered by far the most physical and economic harm from Covid; while many of us on here, including me, pontificate from the security of our comfortable jobs or retirement.
Great post and it really disappoints me that the rhetoric of the early pandemic had been abandoned by this government. We talked about key workers as heroes but the government has flunked the opportunity to reward them by reforming sick pay. My mum worked in a dentist where the company doesn't provide sick pay. She had to go to work regardless of how she felt and potentially infect dozens of people a day. She took early retirement despite not really being able to afford it because she has lung problems and didn't want to be put at risk anymore.
For those crowing about Boris "getting it right" I'd say that rushing people back to the shame shitty situation they found themselves in pre pandemic is a poor reward for the sacrifices they made.
Thanks, and agree with all you say. Tough on your mum - and tough on the millions of low paid workers on zero-hours contracts, 'self-employed' Uber-type contracts and so on. What do those millions have in common? Very few of them vote Tory, so they can go hang.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Re not getting the unlockdown wrong, More or less was interesting on this, mainly because it wasn't looking at Boris's decision but how wrong the forecast was. The actual figures looked at (deaths, hospitalisations etc) were a 1/3 of the best projection and 1/30 of the worst projection.
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
Luckily he made the right decision.
A more worrying thing is that the scientists weren't following the scientific evidence in their forecasts.
I hope the modelling is looked at in the inquiries. However, the modellers will stick to the line of 'it wasn't a prediction', even if it was used by the media and politicians as such.
Not all the modelling has been bad. Its hard to argue that Fergussen was wrong in 2020 with his 500,000 dying without taking action. We've hit 160,000 at least with all the drastic actions we've taken.
I have a lingering suspicion that some of the modelling teams, or those using the data (civil service) wanted tighter restrictions (probably for decent motives, as they genuinely believed they were needed), and picked models/settings that provided scary numbers. That finally got called out with omicron, after the July 2021 reopening exposed some of the scenarios as frankly nonsense.
The thing I feel strongly about most is Surveillance and not dismantling it too quickly. There is political pressures in that having that kind of Surveillance to some may not be seen as 'living with it' and if you want to declare Covid over like 'Big Dog' thinks it is there's an argument to reduce or end it. Of course there is also Financial pressure from the Treasury with the cost of upkeep of such a system.
We got Surveillance right with the ONS and I think for at least the next couple of years it would be prudent to keep this funded and up and running. It would allow us to track Variants, see how immunity is faring in the populace, helps with research and would help determine is there is a winter wave on the way and if further vaccinations are needed.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Re not getting the unlockdown wrong, More or less was interesting on this, mainly because it wasn't looking at Boris's decision but how wrong the forecast was. The actual figures looked at (deaths, hospitalisations etc) were a 1/3 of the best projection and 1/30 of the worst projection.
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
Luckily he made the right decision.
A more worrying thing is that the scientists weren't following the scientific evidence in their forecasts.
I hope the modelling is looked at in the inquiries. However, the modellers will stick to the line of 'it wasn't a prediction', even if it was used by the media and politicians as such.
Not all the modelling has been bad. Its hard to argue that Fergussen was wrong in 2020 with his 500,000 dying without taking action. We've hit 160,000 at least with all the drastic actions we've taken.
I have a lingering suspicion that some of the modelling teams, or those using the data (civil service) wanted tighter restrictions (probably for decent motives, as they genuinely believed they were needed), and picked models/settings that provided scary numbers. That finally got called out with omicron, after the July 2021 reopening exposed some of the scenarios as frankly nonsense.
If the inquiries look at anything except "why wasn't lockdown sooner and harsher" I will be amazed.
Had a fun half hour trying to attack the sheet ice out there with a shovel. Have cleared enough of a path to the office so that I won't break my neck, and tried to clear as much footpath as I could for the kids walking to school. Roads are clear, other side of the road is clear, just our side which has been in the shade.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
Many people buy all wheel drive cars and put normal tyres on them which takes them almost back to where they started. For most people if they need an all wheel drive car they need appropriate tyres. If they don't then they don't need an all wheel drive car.
I'm running summer tyres on the Outlander (as I didn't get round to swapping for winters early enough to be worth the bother this year). In December I was one of a very small number of vehicles to make it over the top of Soutra Hill on the A68 in a blizzard. Despite the tyres the electric drive combined with fancy electronics meant that I didn't get stuck. Other vehicles are sat there spinning their wheels and mine just walked past them.
As the plan is to swap the Outlander for a Tesla Model Y this summer I will definitely be sticking winter tyres on it - plenty of room to throw the tyres in the back on route to be swapped at the tyre shack.
When one of m cousins lived in the South (the 'heel') of `Italy he was, apparently, supposed to fit 'winter' tyres. Might have been because he sometimes drove back to UK, of course.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Re not getting the unlockdown wrong, More or less was interesting on this, mainly because it wasn't looking at Boris's decision but how wrong the forecast was. The actual figures looked at (deaths, hospitalisations etc) were a 1/3 of the best projection and 1/30 of the worst projection.
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
Luckily he made the right decision.
A more worrying thing is that the scientists weren't following the scientific evidence in their forecasts.
I hope the modelling is looked at in the inquiries. However, the modellers will stick to the line of 'it wasn't a prediction', even if it was used by the media and politicians as such.
Not all the modelling has been bad. Its hard to argue that Fergussen was wrong in 2020 with his 500,000 dying without taking action. We've hit 160,000 at least with all the drastic actions we've taken.
I have a lingering suspicion that some of the modelling teams, or those using the data (civil service) wanted tighter restrictions (probably for decent motives, as they genuinely believed they were needed), and picked models/settings that provided scary numbers. That finally got called out with omicron, after the July 2021 reopening exposed some of the scenarios as frankly nonsense.
If the inquiries look at anything except "why wasn't lockdown sooner and harsher" I will be amazed.
Indeed, which if it is would be a disgrace. Lockdown didn't have to be any sooner, or any harsher. Lifting lockdown could have been much sooner.
But some people have preconceptions and an axe to grind, and protecting civil liberties doesn't seem to be high on the agenda of any but the batshit crazy critics regrettably.
On the usual panto debate over Covid rules ("oh yes it is! / oh no it isn't!") there are some obvious things that both sides should be able to agree on if they wipe the froth from their mouths and stop shouting:
1. We are well past the peak on Omicron. That all the numbers are collapsing rapidly is what happens when you have an exponential rise on the upside 2. We are testing less as we wind down that operation. Less testing equals less positive results 3. People largely have absolutely had enough of Covid. Three jabs and likely 4 jabs have tamed it - so another promo push to keep people getting jabbed is likely enough for what we have, providing that people don't completely drop their guard 4. Its absolutely the case that the driver for the rapid dropping of restrictions is to throw red meat at the feral backbenchers and save Big Dog.
Are we well over the Omicron spike? Yes. Is it sensible to be scaling back operations? Yes. Is the driver for doing so now in this manner driven by political not medical expediencies? Yes.
What will be fascinating is what happens if another variant breaks out. "Just live with it" may not hold in the early weeks of another exponential curve before we know that its as mild as Omicron turned out to be. Nor will "just follow the science" when they're openly throwing it in the big to save big dog.
Either way, we're doing it, and we hope thats the last we hear of it.
On 4, are the other European nations who are doing the same doing it to save Johnson's career too?
I don't deny that politics is playing a role here, but its also the right time to do this. The absence of outrage from the scientists is striking. Beyond a few NHS doctors and the odd scientist, on the whole the reaction is this its probably the right time.
I broadly agree with the govts approach on lifting remaining restrictions but would like to hear more from Whitty and Vallance. Absence of outrage does not necessarily equal support.
Weather is getting utterly vile outside again and house is getting quite chilly despite the heating being on, just had to turn it up more. Seems like Storm Franklin could be worse than Eunice around here at least.
Hope Spring arrives soon. This week's weather has wrecked the plans I'd made for half-term.
Windy.com suggests there's another incoming after this one
Looks to me like we have a steering low over Iceland this week, sending fronts and small systems across us, but nothing too major. Then a temporary ridge of high pressure before the next strong one - currently forecast to graze the NW, so might miss us.
Potentially quite a bit more rain at times. Park here is already saturated with temporary ponds.
Edit: Beginning to pine for SO's drought warning posts.
Who was the poster who was forever forecasting an imminent new ice-age?
Customer service done right: Customer not in when DHL try to deliver. Customer has a pre-existing issue with her local DHL reps and arranges to collect from the depot rather than try for another delivery. That takes too long and the products are defrosted. Cue complaint about us using DHL.
Not our fault, not DHL's fault. But she still gets an apology, a full refund and a voucher off a replacement order. Because its better to lose a bit of money making up for a poor experience than lose their business entirely plus anyone else they speak to about how badly we treated them plus their friends who pass o the story etc etc.
So how do bigger companies not get this? A computer says no approach where you are in the wrong even when its clearly the other way round and a grudging "gesture of goodwill" if you're lucky? Those three words do trigger me I confess, especially (as I once had) the company was legally in the shit and I was threatening to take them to court.
Apologise. Refund. Make right. Next customer please. It's not difficult.
Weather is getting utterly vile outside again and house is getting quite chilly despite the heating being on, just had to turn it up more. Seems like Storm Franklin could be worse than Eunice around here at least.
Hope Spring arrives soon. This week's weather has wrecked the plans I'd made for half-term.
Windy.com suggests there's another incoming after this one
Looks to me like we have a steering low over Iceland this week, sending fronts and small systems across us, but nothing too major. Then a temporary ridge of high pressure before the next strong one - currently forecast to graze the NW, so might miss us.
Potentially quite a bit more rain at times. Park here is already saturated with temporary ponds.
Edit: Beginning to pine for SO's drought warning posts.
Who was the poster who was forever forecasting an imminent new ice-age?
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
I hope that is basically correct. I think the messaging around isolation will be that its not a legal issue, but down to personal responsibility.
Does present issues for those who can't WFH and perhaps have unsympathetic employers though. I think realistically we need to change the culture around working when unwell. For those who can WFH there should rarely be a need to attend a workplace with a cold etc. Don't know what the solution is for those who cannot WFH though.
And sadly there will be some who swing the lead with sickness.
Yes it is about personal responsibility but it's also, as you hint, about economics. As usual, it's the less well off who will struggle to exercise personal responsibility.
A lot of people just can't afford to take time off even if they know they're spreading germs, either because they get no income or because sick pay isn't enough to pay the bills. So they carry on delivering goods or whatever even though they're clearly likely to spread disease. It would be helpful if the government could come up with a proposal to resolve this (not just for Covid, but any transmissible disease).
When this is all over and all the analyses done, I'm confident that it will be the disadvantaged, as ever, who have suffered by far the most physical and economic harm from Covid; while many of us on here, including me, pontificate from the security of our comfortable jobs or retirement.
Great post and it really disappoints me that the rhetoric of the early pandemic had been abandoned by this government. We talked about key workers as heroes but the government has flunked the opportunity to reward them by reforming sick pay. My mum worked in a dentist where the company doesn't provide sick pay. She had to go to work regardless of how she felt and potentially infect dozens of people a day. She took early retirement despite not really being able to afford it because she has lung problems and didn't want to be put at risk anymore.
For those crowing about Boris "getting it right" I'd say that rushing people back to the shame shitty situation they found themselves in pre pandemic is a poor reward for the sacrifices they made.
Thanks, and agree with all you say. Tough on your mum - and tough on the millions of low paid workers on zero-hours contracts, 'self-employed' Uber-type contracts and so on. What do those millions have in common? Very few of them vote Tory, so they can go hang.
Absolutely and while I'm in rant mode if I hear one more politician talking about "getting people back to work" I will scream. I like many other people in the public sector (and beyond of course) worked my fingers to the bone through the pandemic. I was doing 12 hour days at home which is more than I did in the office when I had to factor in travel times. There are plenty of people who did longer hours from home. It wasn't a fucking holiday working from home.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Re not getting the unlockdown wrong, More or less was interesting on this, mainly because it wasn't looking at Boris's decision but how wrong the forecast was. The actual figures looked at (deaths, hospitalisations etc) were a 1/3 of the best projection and 1/30 of the worst projection.
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
Luckily he made the right decision.
A more worrying thing is that the scientists weren't following the scientific evidence in their forecasts.
I hope the modelling is looked at in the inquiries. However, the modellers will stick to the line of 'it wasn't a prediction', even if it was used by the media and politicians as such.
Not all the modelling has been bad. Its hard to argue that Fergussen was wrong in 2020 with his 500,000 dying without taking action. We've hit 160,000 at least with all the drastic actions we've taken.
I have a lingering suspicion that some of the modelling teams, or those using the data (civil service) wanted tighter restrictions (probably for decent motives, as they genuinely believed they were needed), and picked models/settings that provided scary numbers. That finally got called out with omicron, after the July 2021 reopening exposed some of the scenarios as frankly nonsense.
Actually I would say Ferguson's figure of 500,000 dead with no action was if anything on the optimistic side given the national age profile, housing stock and health service always running at full stretch. Brazil's death rate, for example, was a third higher than ours despite their population being very considerably younger.
On the usual panto debate over Covid rules ("oh yes it is! / oh no it isn't!") there are some obvious things that both sides should be able to agree on if they wipe the froth from their mouths and stop shouting:
1. We are well past the peak on Omicron. That all the numbers are collapsing rapidly is what happens when you have an exponential rise on the upside 2. We are testing less as we wind down that operation. Less testing equals less positive results 3. People largely have absolutely had enough of Covid. Three jabs and likely 4 jabs have tamed it - so another promo push to keep people getting jabbed is likely enough for what we have, providing that people don't completely drop their guard 4. Its absolutely the case that the driver for the rapid dropping of restrictions is to throw red meat at the feral backbenchers and save Big Dog.
Are we well over the Omicron spike? Yes. Is it sensible to be scaling back operations? Yes. Is the driver for doing so now in this manner driven by political not medical expediencies? Yes.
What will be fascinating is what happens if another variant breaks out. "Just live with it" may not hold in the early weeks of another exponential curve before we know that its as mild as Omicron turned out to be. Nor will "just follow the science" when they're openly throwing it in the big to save big dog.
Either way, we're doing it, and we hope thats the last we hear of it.
On 4, are the other European nations who are doing the same doing it to save Johnson's career too?
I don't deny that politics is playing a role here, but its also the right time to do this. The absence of outrage from the scientists is striking. Beyond a few NHS doctors and the odd scientist, on the whole the reaction is this its probably the right time.
Are other European nations with their own experiences of Covid and restrictions different from the UK?
Bit of foam at the side of your mouth there, needs a wipe.
- An alert system for when seasonal respiratory (and other?) viruses are circulating at high levels, encouraging very limited voluntary use of masks at such times, especially public transport, and distancing. - Make clear that COVID, although blunted, remains at high levels, masking remains encouraged but voluntary and LFTs remain available. - The withdrawal of the COVID alert, when government removes any remaining mask advice and LFT support, will be made clear once the virus is circulating at low levels. - Yes, end legal mandation of COVID isolation, but emphasise continued LFT use and that anyone testing positive really should eliminate outside contact as much as possible, and support school and workplace policies that firm that up. - Develop a fixed price, cheap, (e.g. 30p per unit) LFT offer in case of further waves, AND for seasonal flu. Make these available whenever alert levels are raised. - NHS: move infection control for COVID in healthcare settings towards what you want it to be long term, to get back towards full treatment volume. Envision something like already existing seasonal flu controls, but with some bolstering (again e.g. mask and LFT). Again, for enhanced protocols to be used whenever alert level is raised. - SHIELDERS: They are frightened to bloody death. No package can omit spending cash helping the vulnerable with their anxiities and the fact life is returning scarily to normal around them. Info campaigns on the known courtesy to not don't visit that care home / hospital / vulnerable person with a cold. Access to a certain supply of LFTs for friends and relatives, an 'as often as it takes' commitment to boosting. Bloody tell them that Sainsbury's isn't dangerous, you inhale bugger all of another peorson's breath, masks or no, as you flit quickly through those aisles.
Truth is life was always tricky for. shielders even prior to COVID.
"Make clear that COVID, although blunted, remains at high levels, masking remains encouraged but voluntary and LFTs remain available."
What do you define as a high level? - genuine question.
Customer service done right: Customer not in when DHL try to deliver. Customer has a pre-existing issue with her local DHL reps and arranges to collect from the depot rather than try for another delivery. That takes too long and the products are defrosted. Cue complaint about us using DHL.
Not our fault, not DHL's fault. But she still gets an apology, a full refund and a voucher off a replacement order. Because its better to lose a bit of money making up for a poor experience than lose their business entirely plus anyone else they speak to about how badly we treated them plus their friends who pass o the story etc etc.
So how do bigger companies not get this? A computer says no approach where you are in the wrong even when its clearly the other way round and a grudging "gesture of goodwill" if you're lucky? Those three words do trigger me I confess, especially (as I once had) the company was legally in the shit and I was threatening to take them to court.
Apologise. Refund. Make right. Next customer please. It's not difficult.
Yodel 'lost' a box of wine that I'd ordered from Majestic. Driver said he'd left it, we were in all the time, no-one knocked etc. Clearly addressed to me, neighbours know me etc. Have to check with driver; no, nothing to add. No photo. Sorry, end of. Contacted Majestic; Oh dear, send us the answer from Yodel. Did, and was told to go to local Majestic branch who sorted out a replacement, in fact to higher value. Majestic 10 Yodel nil. IMHO
Boris removing restrictions is the correct thing to do and we all need to accept personal responsibility
The costs of free tests of 2 billion a month is eye watering and swallows the whole of next years NI increase in just 6 months
Of course Scotland and Wales will continue restrictions no matter as they cannot bring themselves to follow England no matter whether it is the right thing to do and no matter the cost
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
I hope that is basically correct. I think the messaging around isolation will be that its not a legal issue, but down to personal responsibility.
Does present issues for those who can't WFH and perhaps have unsympathetic employers though. I think realistically we need to change the culture around working when unwell. For those who can WFH there should rarely be a need to attend a workplace with a cold etc. Don't know what the solution is for those who cannot WFH though.
And sadly there will be some who swing the lead with sickness.
Yes it is about personal responsibility but it's also, as you hint, about economics. As usual, it's the less well off who will struggle to exercise personal responsibility.
A lot of people just can't afford to take time off even if they know they're spreading germs, either because they get no income or because sick pay isn't enough to pay the bills. So they carry on delivering goods or whatever even though they're clearly likely to spread disease. It would be helpful if the government could come up with a proposal to resolve this (not just for Covid, but any transmissible disease).
When this is all over and all the analyses done, I'm confident that it will be the disadvantaged, as ever, who have suffered by far the most physical and economic harm from Covid; while many of us on here, including me, pontificate from the security of our comfortable jobs or retirement.
Great post and it really disappoints me that the rhetoric of the early pandemic had been abandoned by this government. We talked about key workers as heroes but the government has flunked the opportunity to reward them by reforming sick pay. My mum worked in a dentist where the company doesn't provide sick pay. She had to go to work regardless of how she felt and potentially infect dozens of people a day. She took early retirement despite not really being able to afford it because she has lung problems and didn't want to be put at risk anymore.
For those crowing about Boris "getting it right" I'd say that rushing people back to the shame shitty situation they found themselves in pre pandemic is a poor reward for the sacrifices they made.
Thanks, and agree with all you say. Tough on your mum - and tough on the millions of low paid workers on zero-hours contracts, 'self-employed' Uber-type contracts and so on. What do those millions have in common? Very few of them vote Tory, so they can go hang.
Absolutely and while I'm in rant mode if I hear one more politician talking about "getting people back to work" I will scream. I like many other people in the public sector (and beyond of course) worked my fingers to the bone through the pandemic. I was doing 12 hour days at home which is more than I did in the office when I had to factor in travel times. There are plenty of people who did longer hours from home. It wasn't a fucking holiday working from home.
Although if somebody suggested getting Boris Johnson back to work at the Telegraph I'd be fully in favour.
On the usual panto debate over Covid rules ("oh yes it is! / oh no it isn't!") there are some obvious things that both sides should be able to agree on if they wipe the froth from their mouths and stop shouting:
1. We are well past the peak on Omicron. That all the numbers are collapsing rapidly is what happens when you have an exponential rise on the upside 2. We are testing less as we wind down that operation. Less testing equals less positive results 3. People largely have absolutely had enough of Covid. Three jabs and likely 4 jabs have tamed it - so another promo push to keep people getting jabbed is likely enough for what we have, providing that people don't completely drop their guard 4. Its absolutely the case that the driver for the rapid dropping of restrictions is to throw red meat at the feral backbenchers and save Big Dog.
Are we well over the Omicron spike? Yes. Is it sensible to be scaling back operations? Yes. Is the driver for doing so now in this manner driven by political not medical expediencies? Yes.
What will be fascinating is what happens if another variant breaks out. "Just live with it" may not hold in the early weeks of another exponential curve before we know that its as mild as Omicron turned out to be. Nor will "just follow the science" when they're openly throwing it in the big to save big dog.
Either way, we're doing it, and we hope thats the last we hear of it.
On 4, are the other European nations who are doing the same doing it to save Johnson's career too?
I don't deny that politics is playing a role here, but its also the right time to do this. The absence of outrage from the scientists is striking. Beyond a few NHS doctors and the odd scientist, on the whole the reaction is this its probably the right time.
Are other European nations with their own experiences of Covid and restrictions different from the UK?
Bit of foam at the side of your mouth there, needs a wipe.
Last sentence is a bit unnecessary. I think lots of countries are coming to the same conclusion about where they are with covid (omicron) and are making the same decisions. I think you are letting your view of Johnson cloud your judgement. No doubt some of the decision is about his own survival, but its also the right time.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. There is no definitive scientific answer to this. What we need is politicians who can balance the risks and the benefits in light of scientific advice. Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now. I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
R4 had one of the Oxford vaccine scientists (Andrew Pollard) on who remarked that “of course it’s a decision for politicians to take, not for scientists” he also didn’t reckon that a couple of weeks either way in reopening was going to make much of a difference in any case.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Denmark, Norway and Sweden got rid of COVID measures around two weeks ago including isolation. The world hasn't ended and our immunity profile is better than all three of those countries due to booster uptake among over 60s and very high prior infection rates in the under 50s.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
Re not getting the unlockdown wrong, More or less was interesting on this, mainly because it wasn't looking at Boris's decision but how wrong the forecast was. The actual figures looked at (deaths, hospitalisations etc) were a 1/3 of the best projection and 1/30 of the worst projection.
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
Luckily he made the right decision.
A more worrying thing is that the scientists weren't following the scientific evidence in their forecasts.
I hope the modelling is looked at in the inquiries. However, the modellers will stick to the line of 'it wasn't a prediction', even if it was used by the media and politicians as such.
Not all the modelling has been bad. Its hard to argue that Fergussen was wrong in 2020 with his 500,000 dying without taking action. We've hit 160,000 at least with all the drastic actions we've taken.
I have a lingering suspicion that some of the modelling teams, or those using the data (civil service) wanted tighter restrictions (probably for decent motives, as they genuinely believed they were needed), and picked models/settings that provided scary numbers. That finally got called out with omicron, after the July 2021 reopening exposed some of the scenarios as frankly nonsense.
Those who did their own modelling and shared it on pb.com should take a bow. They managed to spot the bollocks stuff within a very short time.
I have taken great comfort in their being very, very sharp. You know who you are.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
I hope that is basically correct. I think the messaging around isolation will be that its not a legal issue, but down to personal responsibility.
Does present issues for those who can't WFH and perhaps have unsympathetic employers though. I think realistically we need to change the culture around working when unwell. For those who can WFH there should rarely be a need to attend a workplace with a cold etc. Don't know what the solution is for those who cannot WFH though.
And sadly there will be some who swing the lead with sickness.
Yes it is about personal responsibility but it's also, as you hint, about economics. As usual, it's the less well off who will struggle to exercise personal responsibility.
A lot of people just can't afford to take time off even if they know they're spreading germs, either because they get no income or because sick pay isn't enough to pay the bills. So they carry on delivering goods or whatever even though they're clearly likely to spread disease. It would be helpful if the government could come up with a proposal to resolve this (not just for Covid, but any transmissible disease).
When this is all over and all the analyses done, I'm confident that it will be the disadvantaged, as ever, who have suffered by far the most physical and economic harm from Covid; while many of us on here, including me, pontificate from the security of our comfortable jobs or retirement.
Great post and it really disappoints me that the rhetoric of the early pandemic had been abandoned by this government. We talked about key workers as heroes but the government has flunked the opportunity to reward them by reforming sick pay. My mum worked in a dentist where the company doesn't provide sick pay. She had to go to work regardless of how she felt and potentially infect dozens of people a day. She took early retirement despite not really being able to afford it because she has lung problems and didn't want to be put at risk anymore.
For those crowing about Boris "getting it right" I'd say that rushing people back to the shame shitty situation they found themselves in pre pandemic is a poor reward for the sacrifices they made.
Thanks, and agree with all you say. Tough on your mum - and tough on the millions of low paid workers on zero-hours contracts, 'self-employed' Uber-type contracts and so on. What do those millions have in common? Very few of them vote Tory, so they can go hang.
Yet when pay and conditions for low paid groups started to improve last year there was no shortage of whining about how they needed to be earned with productivity increases, would lead to costs rising and wouldn't be necessary if we could only import unrestricted numbers of low paid workers.
See delivery drivers, farm labourers, abattoir workers, hospitality, care homes and so on.
Comments
Said spike has been mashed by the winds last night - completely sheared off, and so back to square one.
What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.
I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.
I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...
Our ‘structural’ problem is that we have a ‘sort of’ conservatory running the width of the bungalow. The roof is sound; we’ve had problems there in the past, but about 18 months ago, after a couple of false starts, found a very competent roofer, and he sorted out all the issues.
However last night water apparently came in through the junction between the wall and floor. So we have to find out how we can reseal that junction. And it’s so close to next doors wall that we can’t get at it from the outside.
If there is no obligation for people to isolate when they have the virus, surely there is no point in quarantine?
Otherwise it is the usual rubbish. None of them have the guts.
You sure as hell wouldn't want Johnson involved!
Of course this really works if you neighbours the other side do the same. A number of people locally have done this, cooperatively.
“Living with Boris Johnson not living with Covid.”
She’s right. It’s a political decision not a scientific decision.
https://twitter.com/Bill_Esterson/status/1495665777038528516
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1495674082867699714
I could quote my A&E (consultant level) doctor friends who have been wanting everyone to get on and live with covid but they wouldn’t fit your narrative.
Boris has called this right since before Christmas as we have seen from a peak that was significantly less than most forecast and the continued drop in cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the last month now.
I know you are of the Boris can do no right school and believe that everything he does is distracting from him multiple faults but it’s time. It really is.
LFTs could be dolled out via the GPs, ending the I-need-37-tests-a-day stuff
He couldn't get another lockdown past Tory MPs
For those that want to retain the restrictions - what is your criteria for when the remaining restrictions should be removed?
Case R
Hospital R
When the UK gets rid of measures - dangerous experiment and they're killing us, why can't we keep the protections forever, Boris is killing the Queen (who I hate anyway!).
Almost always these statements come from the same people. It's laughable.
Then looked at the driveway. Mrs RP needs to go to work at lunchtime so thought I'd have a go at getting her car (Ioniq EV) up the drive. No. So pulled mine out (Outlander PHEV) and parked it on the road. Just reinforces what I had already thought - all wheel drive definitely a bonus up here, and winter tyres really needed next year.
If all of this is about “saving Boris” why did Guernsey scrap all COVID regulations last week?
For all his very many faults and unsuitability for office Johnson has got a lot of the big calls on COVID right, and his critics wrong.
Does present issues for those who can't WFH and perhaps have unsympathetic employers though. I think realistically we need to change the culture around working when unwell. For those who can WFH there should rarely be a need to attend a workplace with a cold etc. Don't know what the solution is for those who cannot WFH though.
And sadly there will be some who swing the lead with sickness.
There's so many things that Boris has fucked up, the unlockdown process isn't one of them.
*Some Belgian widows and orphans.
Note: This meeting is unscheduled.
Also comes a day before Duma session said to discuss situation in the Donbas.
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1495681062948773890
Potentially quite a bit more rain at times. Park here is already saturated with temporary ponds.
Edit: Beginning to pine for SO's drought warning posts.
On a side note it's Interesting how Whitty and Valance have completely disappeared off the face of the Earth?
We will see what happens, the die is cast. Covid-19 is a fully Political issue and topic now.
A lot of people just can't afford to take time off even if they know they're spreading germs, either because they get no income or because sick pay isn't enough to pay the bills. So they carry on delivering goods or whatever even though they're clearly likely to spread disease. It would be helpful if the government could come up with a proposal to resolve this (not just for Covid, but any transmissible disease).
When this is all over and all the analyses done, I'm confident that it will be the disadvantaged, as ever, who have suffered by far the most physical and economic harm from Covid; while many of us on here, including me, pontificate from the security of our comfortable jobs or retirement.
It’s not just “bigger/chunkier” grip, the grip pattern is different as it’s designed to improve grip in increased rainfall so it flows differently and can handle dispersing the larger quantities of water expected to a “normal tyre” making it safer.
Also importantly they are made from a different compound mix so they work better in the cold.
As the plan is to swap the Outlander for a Tesla Model Y this summer I will definitely be sticking winter tyres on it - plenty of room to throw the tyres in the back on route to be swapped at the tyre shack.
https://www.ukcovid19study.com/?hsLang=en
Now that's no good for immuno-compromised folk. I think though that its vital to remember that these people are at risk of other diseases too, not just covid, and will be living their lives in a cautious way already. There is a balance to be struck and not everyone will agree on where that is. Some would have masks forever, outside too (@heathener seems to be on this panel), others would say that now with vaccination and prior infection we are at herd immunity levels, so job done.
We should remember that free testing isn't some gift of the manufacturers to the UK government(s). Its being paid for. Want more money in the NHS? One way that helps is stopping doing a million PCR's a day (its probably not that now, but I can't be arsed to check...).
Unless Boris had a crystal ball or had lost all confidence in the scientists he took one hell of a risk. As it turned out he was right and the scientist very wrong, but I find it worrying if he was not following scientific advice.
Luckily he made the right decision.
I know plenty of people who switch to winter tyres but my top tip is never tell anybody if you've got a tyre machine otherwise you'll spend your fucking life putting other people's winter tyres on.
1. We are well past the peak on Omicron. That all the numbers are collapsing rapidly is what happens when you have an exponential rise on the upside
2. We are testing less as we wind down that operation. Less testing equals less positive results
3. People largely have absolutely had enough of Covid. Three jabs and likely 4 jabs have tamed it - so another promo push to keep people getting jabbed is likely enough for what we have, providing that people don't completely drop their guard
4. Its absolutely the case that the driver for the rapid dropping of restrictions is to throw red meat at the feral backbenchers and save Big Dog.
Are we well over the Omicron spike? Yes. Is it sensible to be scaling back operations? Yes. Is the driver for doing so now in this manner driven by political not medical expediencies? Yes.
What will be fascinating is what happens if another variant breaks out. "Just live with it" may not hold in the early weeks of another exponential curve before we know that its as mild as Omicron turned out to be. Nor will "just follow the science" when they're openly throwing it in the big to save big dog.
Either way, we're doing it, and we hope thats the last we hear of it.
For those crowing about Boris "getting it right" I'd say that rushing people back to the shame shitty situation they found themselves in pre pandemic is a poor reward for the sacrifices they made.
- An alert system for when seasonal respiratory (and other?) viruses are circulating at high levels, encouraging very limited voluntary use of masks at such times, especially public transport, and distancing.
- Make clear that COVID, although blunted, remains at high levels, masking remains encouraged but voluntary and LFTs remain available.
- The withdrawal of the COVID alert, when government removes any remaining mask advice and LFT support, will be made clear once the virus is circulating at low levels.
- Yes, end legal mandation of COVID isolation, but emphasise continued LFT use and that anyone testing positive really should eliminate outside contact as much as possible, and support school and workplace policies that firm that up.
- Develop a fixed price, cheap, (e.g. 30p per unit) LFT offer in case of further waves, AND for seasonal flu. Make these available whenever alert levels are raised.
- NHS: move infection control for COVID in healthcare settings towards what you want it to be long term, to get back towards full treatment volume. Envision something like already existing seasonal flu controls, but with some bolstering (again e.g. mask and LFT). Again, for enhanced protocols to be used whenever alert level is raised.
- SHIELDERS: They are frightened to bloody death. No package can omit spending cash helping the vulnerable with their anxiities and the fact life is returning scarily to normal around them. Info campaigns on the known courtesy to not don't visit that care home / hospital / vulnerable person with a cold. Access to a certain supply of LFTs for friends and relatives, an 'as often as it takes' commitment to boosting. Bloody tell them that Sainsbury's isn't dangerous, you inhale bugger all of another peorson's breath, masks or no, as you flit quickly through those aisles.
Truth is life was always tricky for. shielders even prior to COVID.
(Have they been frozen out?)
I always used to find it weird my first winter there why so many people had cars with the shitty basic black or grey steel and was informed that a lot of people just buy the cheapest shittiest wheels for their winter wheels as they get messed up anyway.
Good science is following the evidence, even if it goes against your preconceptions or agenda. The second you start putting your thumb on the scale, it isn't good science anymore.
On a related note, my daughter's infant school has finally stopped asking parents to wear masks for drop off. Compliance was already only about 50% - but this morning, of the c. 150 parents I saw, only two were still wearing masks (both east Asian).
Most people will do what they're told to do, and many people will do what they're asked to do. But give people freedom, and almost everybody chooses not to wear masks.
I don't deny that politics is playing a role here, but its also the right time to do this. The absence of outrage from the scientists is striking. Beyond a few NHS doctors and the odd scientist, on the whole the reaction is this its probably the right time.
Not all the modelling has been bad. Its hard to argue that Fergussen was wrong in 2020 with his 500,000 dying without taking action. We've hit 160,000 at least with all the drastic actions we've taken.
I have a lingering suspicion that some of the modelling teams, or those using the data (civil service) wanted tighter restrictions (probably for decent motives, as they genuinely believed they were needed), and picked models/settings that provided scary numbers. That finally got called out with omicron, after the July 2021 reopening exposed some of the scenarios as frankly nonsense.
We got Surveillance right with the ONS and I think for at least the next couple of years it would be prudent to keep this funded and up and running. It would allow us to track Variants, see how immunity is faring in the populace, helps with research and would help determine is there is a winter wave on the way and if further vaccinations are needed.
But some people have preconceptions and an axe to grind, and protecting civil liberties doesn't seem to be high on the agenda of any but the batshit crazy critics regrettably.
Then they had a melt down.
Not our fault, not DHL's fault. But she still gets an apology, a full refund and a voucher off a replacement order. Because its better to lose a bit of money making up for a poor experience than lose their business entirely plus anyone else they speak to about how badly we treated them plus their friends who pass o the story etc etc.
So how do bigger companies not get this? A computer says no approach where you are in the wrong even when its clearly the other way round and a grudging "gesture of goodwill" if you're lucky? Those three words do trigger me I confess, especially (as I once had) the company was legally in the shit and I was threatening to take them to court.
Apologise. Refund. Make right. Next customer please. It's not difficult.
Bit of foam at the side of your mouth there, needs a wipe.
What do you define as a high level? - genuine question.
Contacted Majestic; Oh dear, send us the answer from Yodel. Did, and was told to go to local Majestic branch who sorted out a replacement, in fact to higher value.
Majestic 10 Yodel nil. IMHO
Boris removing restrictions is the correct thing to do and we all need to accept personal responsibility
The costs of free tests of 2 billion a month is eye watering and swallows the whole of next years NI increase in just 6 months
Of course Scotland and Wales will continue restrictions no matter as they cannot bring themselves to follow England no matter whether it is the right thing to do and no matter the cost
I have taken great comfort in their being very, very sharp. You know who you are.
See delivery drivers, farm labourers, abattoir workers, hospitality, care homes and so on.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-59668602