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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Clegg does move on my money would now be on Tim Farron
Michael Gove’s claims about plots to overthrow Clegg haven’t impacted on the betting.Tim Farron still 5/2 favourite twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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His leadership is looking increasingly fragile to me.
Bring back Lembit, all is forgiven
Young, comes across well on tv, wants to get young people engaged in politics.
A WOMAN!
No expert on LDs (or any politics really) but I thought Farron was terrible on tv the night Rennard gate broke, absolutely awful.
Cables too old, Davey reminds me of Morrissey, Lamb just made that record, I dont think people would take him seriously, Laws is in disgrace over expenses (and are the public ready for a a gay leader yet?), Alexander and Browne come across as Tories.
Swinson. Nailed on.
(Provided she keeps her seat of course)
Although Farage is a leader without a seat.... wouldnt work for the LDs though
Oh there you go! Deliberate mistake of the day weighs in! Ill do a 360 billion degree turn on that! Sorry for the mistake, confusing my Norms! Thought he was a bit short in the betting for a bit of a joker.
It's a tiny little thing, but today on Woman's hour they were discussing government cuts and women (again), the presenter complained that the government had provided them with no statement, but before the discussion had ended Jo Swinson sent one in as minister for women and equalities. No idea what had happened, but it rather looked like she, or someone in her team, had done some very quick work one way or another. I'm not sure if she is all that unready.
@tim A Tory majority puts these nutters in power
A labour majority will let the labour nutters into power who opened our borders to unprecedented immigration or bankrupted the country or went to war on a lie.
Loving how dan the man gets the left worked up.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/41065/nice-but-dim-what-the-electorate-thinks-of-the-lib-dems/?wt=3&utm_source=WordTwit&utm_campaign=wordtwit&utm_medium=referral
Swinson would be a better choice but she needs the wholly unlikely scenario of the coalition to end with Clegg and Cameron resigning and a Con minority government being in place up to 2015 where she could build up her profile as an independent Lib Dem leader. She might just then save her seat.
David Cameron says the whole Conservative party agree they should focus on an EU referendum, but reiterates that it will not take place until after the next general election
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10053911/I-will-change-EU-status-quo-then-call-referendum-in-2017-insists-David-Cameron.html
And yet people think the rise of UKIP is because David Cameron mentions immigration now and then. The sooner we introduce a values test to immigrants of all types the better, but none of handwringing elites in the three main parties has the balls to do it, lest they be condemned by Polly Toynbee. It's pathetic and we need a change.
I've been converted to these Mr Men characters ...
Mr Happy = Nigel Farage
Mr Lazy = David Cameron
Mr Jelly = Ed Milliband
Mr Tickle = Lord Rennard
Mr Quiet = IDS
Mr Bump = Tim Farron
Mr Silly = George Osborne
Little Miss Bossy = Harriet Harman
Mr Grumpy = tim
Modern education, don't you just love it. Where do I collect my PPE degree?
10% think they are smart
That looks in line with the polling.... (ducks)
As this person is a UK citizen and was born (and presumably educated) here, I don;t see how voting UKIP changes things at all.
Surely in this case the horse has bolted before you can even think about shutting the stable door...
Apart from David Laws, they all seem to be a lot of plonkers.
If Swinson kept her seat then the Lib Dem leadership wouldnt be enough of a reward for her feat. They'd have to endow a Nobel prize for political campaigning and give it to her.
If it came down to Farron V Davey then I can see the members over-ruling the parliamentary party and giving it to Farron.
Webb should stand on a platform of competent decency though.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20448450
I thought tim said it was millions? Let's remember this next time he goes on and on about someone else making a mistake with data...
"Go google revision memory techniques. A shedload of them involve creating little stories to act as memory triggers. The Mr Men thing is just a variation on that."
I believe you, but bringing in Animal Farm shows the teacher has an inflated view of his own abilities (Mr Not as clever as he thinks he is?).
Wigan need to win both games left - scope for a virtual arb ?
Wigan 8.4/1 to win vs Arsenal
Evens to win vs Villa
Villa are 40/1 to be relegated (1 game left), Sunderland 24/1 (would need to lose vs Spurs and Wigan to win both).
Are the individual odds right or is there a disconnect ?
Or maybe he fears the UK leaving the EUmonster more than he fears an electoral hammering and the hatred of his own party? I have to confess I am at a total loss to understand what Dave's objectives and motivators here are.
FPT
I can't think of anybody in the current crop of LDs who is more loathed by the Tories.
@Michael_Heaver @ukipwebmaster Watch Bennet make a fool of herself on this exclusive footage: http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/03/25/exclusive-footage-green-party-leader-natalie-bennett-on-uk-energy-bill/ … "green energy is free"
If you want to reduce the number of immigrants from Pakistan today onwards to zero (even including marriages and would be students), that is one thing (though I'm not sure its UKIP policy).
If you want to somehow put pressure on people of Pakistani descent who are already UK citizens and living here, that is surely something quite different.
For example, I have a flat in Budapest and a house in rural Hungary. I'm out there about once every four to six weeks, where I stay for a long weekend, usually with one longer holiday stay in the summer of a couple of weeks. I work full time in London though.
Could I be said to be "living abroad for part of the year"? It's not how I think of it: not yet anyway.
"We know what the sun is going to cost us. We know what the wind is going to cost us. We know what the tide is going to cost us. Which is exactly nothing."
Aside from the vast cost (*) of implementing the technology to harness them in large enough quantities.
Have the Green Party reversed their opposition to the Severn Barrage?
http://greenparty.org.uk/news/26-01-09-barrage.html
(*) Which may or may not be lesser or greater than those of more traditional forms of generation. However it will not be so 'less' as being nothing.
The real funny bit of that link is the quote:
"But the party’s claim about the number of Brits abroad is based on jacked up – and somewhat dusty – data from its friends at the IPPR."
So I assume you are using the jacked up Friends of Labour IPPR numbers to support your argument rather than the official numbers which show just how wrong you really are.
1) Whatever he said, the frothers would shriek in horror that it wasn't enough, sell-out, Europhile traitor etc etc
2) Whatever he said, the EU nomenklatura and politicians would say 'Quel horreur! You must be kidding, not a snowflake's chance in Hölle, etc etc
3) If it came to negotiations, whatever was on his list would be regarded as the opening position, not the final/redline one.
In any case, circumstances change, and we're talking about a negotiation several years ahead and at a time when the EU/Eurozone is itself likely substantially to evolve, in ways which might profoundly affect what we would want or could get. In the final analysis, you have to look at the whole picture - you can't reduce a negotiation to a list of bullet-points.
I think you're actually living in a different world, mate.
I'm only jealous!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22509847
I do think Spain was a bit much, but they're really putting me off changing the tyres with this unseemly whining. Maybe Pirelli's official response to the complaint about F1 not being about racing should be "Multi-21".
May I suggest a good response to go with? How about this one: Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.
Much as I admire your posts, in the current climate with UKIP on the rampage, that response to Patrick sounds impossibly craven.
Note "Cumbria Police said it was thought the fire started as a result of a burglary and was noy politically motivated!
rEd has the same issue - lions led by lambs.
If they do then it's either a 40/1 or a 24/1 shot.
Could be about right- I guess the odds are going to change after the Wigan game on Tues.
The truth of the matter is that Cameron's position is incredibly difficult. He doesn't have a majority. Blair and Brown threw away most of the bargaining chips, quite gratuitously, for nothing in return. Because of the ease with which the Stay In side could deploy fear and doubt, winning an Out referendum would be near-impossible, even if he wanted us to leave the EU, and losing one so we stay in under the current terms would throw away our only opportunity in a generation to improve things. The frothers frothing just makes it worse; they won't listen to reason, argue the most absurd nonsenses, and seem determined to cut off their noses to spite our faces by ushering PM Miliband into No 10.
There are no easy answers to getting us out of the mess which Blair and Brown left.
Funny really because as I remember it Tim is always so ready to use official figures when he thinks they support his case but as soon as they don't he runs off to find some spurious alternative.
A halfway house with a few opt-outs here and there, given away by different goverments from time to time, but with us mainly grumbling and others irritated by or ignoring us is not tenable, not in the long-term.
Personally, I think we should seek to come up with a better vision for Europe than the one currently on offer but I do not see any sign - in any of the main parties (and not in UKIP either) - of any intelligent thinking on this topic. It's all either short-term tactics / moaning about individual issues or pious blathering about "influence".
From your own link which you posted in support of your very dodgy claims Tim
"So, to put it simply, there are more European immigrants arriving here than Brits leaving for Europe. What the PM told Mrs Duffy was not only out by several hundreds of thousands, but official statistics appear not to back up his claim."
One could argue that UKIP is only strengthening the EU's hand. It can play for time and watch the British right destroy itself, only to usher in a much more amenable leader.
The problem, though, is that if we can't persuade our EU friends to reshape it, and leave, it will still be there, still unreformed, and we will still be largely subject to its influence or worse.
Cameron's optimistic view is that, over a period of three to four years, and against the background of the Eurozone crisis and the structural reforms which most observers agree are necessary to address that, it can be reshaped.
He may be over-optimistic in this (certainly it won't be easy). But it would seem very silly not to even try.
http://www.xkcd.com/1211/
http://www.iam-magazine.com/Blog/Detail.aspx?g=4a4b6b8e-7474-413b-8a0a-f98ef98ee991
Stats are so easily manipulated in discussions like this they are barely worth quoting
You and Southam Observer dont allow stats of White Brits leaving areas of mass immigration as evidence that they dont like mass immigration
I believe immigration issue is measurable by speaking to people whose areas have been changed irrevocably by it, by the success/lack of it of anti mass immigration parties in places recently affected.
A major difference, though, would be the endotherm/ectotherm divide (although perhaps the likes of archaeoptryx and its descendents might have become warm-blooded).
DC needs to make them real - we need pictures of people entering a room with a round table.
I also note...
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 10 May
PM might want new deal with EU. On recent trip to Brussels his officials told me they've done nothing to secure it. "not govt policy"
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 10 May
If ministers real want a new deal with EU, why do UKREP officials in Brussels cheerfully admit they are doing nothing to secure it?
"I think that the repatriation of powers is a bit of a red herring, frankly. Fundamentally, Britain has a different view of what the EU should be to most of Continental Europe. Repatriating a few powers is an attempt to reconcile fundamentally different visions. Either we get to reshape Europe in a way which works for all or we get out. Cameron is not prepared to say - or even - think this."
Have a read of Cameron's January EU speech and you'll see quite alot of thought on how he thinks the EU should be reshaped to make it work better and also an attempt to persuade EU leaders that his vision would be better.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jan/23/david-cameron-eu-speech-referendum
Although the tooltip from the previous cartoon might be applicable to some on here:
Of course it is not British government policy to start formal negotiations now. How could it be? There's no parliamentary majority for it, a point which Douglas Carswell seems to have forgotten.
If the policy is to do ferk all until 8th May 2015 then Cameron is totally stuffed - again it's being reactive not pro-active.
Does Cameron say "We're off"? Or does he come out with all the usual rubbish about better off in - even in something we don't like - than out. And, if so, what's the point of the whole charade?
Ultimately, doesn't he have to be prepared to say that he does not believe that Britain (or what's left after the Scots referendum) should stay in an unchanged EU? And the rest of the EU will then need to decide whether or not they want to lose one of the major countries and its second largest net contributor?
Currently the EU can just ignore the whole thing or take their time because they know that the other parties are largely pro-EU so there is no incentive to do anything to accommodate the Tories.
I just don't understand Cameron's strategy or his tactics.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22119096
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22061662
How on earth you have come up with that I will never know!
I have never said anything of the sort
http://www.iam-magazine.com/Issues/Article.ashx?g=26fcd519-6985-4aa4-a3c4-f7f02c7be3ef
I do agree though, as a matter of tactics, that Cameron should have been more ambiguous about what he would recommend in the event that the concessions don't amount to much. Possibly the latest Gove/Hammond remarks are an indication that they are trying to correct this.
It is a bit of a balancing act, though; too much in the other direction would create a fear/uncertainty backlash.
(and the article also says that *residency* which is more relevant here is 250-400K, not 800K
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3513/le_itax_france_mulls_tax_on_smartphones_tablets_and_more