As I understand it in all these areas between 2014 and 2017 the following areas go from unanimity to Qualified Majority Voting.
Initiatives of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs Rules concerning the Armaments Agency Freedom to establish a business Self-employment access rights Freedom, security and justice – cooperation and evaluation Border controls Asylum Immigration Crime prevention incentives Eurojust Police cooperation Europol Transport European Central Bank Culture Structural and Cohension Funds Organisation of the Council of the European Union European Court of Justice Freedom of movement for workers Social security Criminal judicial cooperation Criminal law President of the European Council election (New item) Foreign Affairs High Representative election (New item) Funding the Common Foreign and Security Policy Common defense policy Withdrawal of a member state (new item) General economic interest services Diplomatic and consular protection Citizens initiative regulations Intellectual property Eurozone external representation Sport Space Energy Tourism Civil protection Administrative cooperation Emergency international aid Humanitarian aid Response to natural disasters or terrorism (new item) Economic and Social Committee Committee of the Regions Economic and Social Committee The EU budget
I do wonder if Cameron's intended negotiations are will be more focussed on returning some of these powers which we have yet to lose rather than recovering powers we have already lost. It would explain why he is so resistant to talking about such matters now. Meanwhile I hear there is talk of removing 30 of the Criminal Justice opt-outs and keeping the European Arrest Warrant.
With the long hard trudge of ever closer union never stopping how do we know what Cameron agrees down the line would even bring us back to the level of sovereignty we have today?
Good to see tim has confirmed that the Labour view of the white working class people whose towns have been subject to mass immigration is that they are "thick racists"
@tim Let's agree that 800,000 Britons live in Spain. Where are the other 1.2 million?
I'm guessing that theres about half a million in France and Ireland.
Anyhow, you can ring the Foreign Office and ask them why they are claiming 800,000 Brits in Spain, more than you were claiming for the whole of Europe.
Do you have a source for that half million in France and Ireland?
Does it count those living there "partially", i.e. the odd weekend, like the Spanish number?
Also - and happy to be corrected on this - I believe British citizens have always been allowed to settle in the Republic of Ireland, so why would it change their status if we left the EU?
Lordy! There will not be a truly sovereign country left in Europe. Have the people of Europe OK'ed this in referendums? Thought not. It will end badly. Probably via the mechanism of a bank run rather than outright political violence (athough the thought of a desperate young Spaniard kidnapping Barroso and inflicting a Tom Knoxy end on him and posting it on Youtube is delicious beyond words).
Singling Apple out is unfair: patent wars have substantially replaced innovation. The value of patents is seen in litigation awards and, equally, the ability to stop or hinder product distribution. That's not to say that we should take the Wikileaks approach and decry anyone who claims that intellectual property should have financial value or give its holder certain rights but the fair use/licence approach is not working hugely well.
I single Apple out as one of the most litigious major companies around. This is compounded by the US patent office approving things which are (to the common man) unbelievably obvious an un-innovative. These are then used to sue others into oblivion and create the false (IMO) impression that Apple are being ripped off left, right, and centre. Not to say they don't have their imitators, but claiming infringement because a competitor also used "rounded corners" on their tablet is ridiculous.
You don't get patents for innovations. They are for inventions. The USPTO grants them according to US patent law. A lot of stuff looks obvious in retrospect, but was not at the time the patent was ganted.
Rounded corners was a design patent/registered community design (in Europe). The criteria for granting these is very different to those applied to invention patents.
@tim Let's agree that 800,000 Britons live in Spain. Where are the other 1.2 million?
I'm guessing that theres about half a million in France and Ireland.
Anyhow, you can ring the Foreign Office and ask them why they are claiming 800,000 Brits in Spain, more than you were claiming for the whole of Europe.
Come on now, less of it, the article you quoted said as few as 250,000 residents
Either we get to reshape Europe in a way which works for all or we get out. Cameron is not prepared to say - or even - think this.
He went a long way towards saying that in his big EU speech, which did indeed concentrate on how the EU should be reshaped.
The problem, though, is that if we can't persuade our EU friends to reshape it, and leave, it will still be there, still unreformed, and we will still be largely subject to its influence or worse.
Cameron's optimistic view is that, over a period of three to four years, and against the background of the Eurozone crisis and the structural reforms which most observers agree are necessary to address that, it can be reshaped.
He may be over-optimistic in this (certainly it won't be easy). But it would seem very silly not to even try.
I think that is the key to it Richard. This UK government (unlike the last which simply stuck its fingers in its ears and eyes and lied) has recognised that the Euro is a key stage in the development of a federal europe because so many other things need to change for it to work. The UK has supported the idea of these changes as it is apprehensive that the euro would otherwise collapse with severe economic consequences.
The result of this is to change the nature of Europe and the protections we previously enjoyed through the Council of Ministers. The question now is what can be done to make EU membership attractive to members who do not want to join the euro? This will indeed need a change of shape rather than a change of competences. We need guarantees that the euro bloc will not act against our interests.
If we can't get them we leave. Ultimately it will be that simple but there is some reluctance in the EU to make non euro membership too comfortable because it might discourage others from joining. These will be difficult negotiations and the idea of having Mr Miliband looking out for our interests is truly terrifying. Maybe he will have another cry if he does not get his own way.
@RichardNabavi: "There will undoubtedly be SOME concessions from our EU friends."
I am more pessimistic than you. I don't think there will be anything of any substance. The appalling levels of unemployment, austerity and lack of democracy should have been enough by now to lead to revolts against the nonsense perpetrated by those inflicting the euro on Europe. Instead of which they're all holding onto nurse for fear of something worse.
Europe is sorting out its problems by exporting its young. That's the way a continent dies. It's an appalling waste caused by a dogmatic adherence to a particular version of what was - and still is - a good idea (co-operation rather than war within Europe). How the left can support such a faith - when the results are there to see all over Europe - beats me.
Lordy! There will not be a truly sovereign country left in Europe. Have the people of Europe OK'ed this in referendums? Thought not. It will end badly. Probably via the mechanism of a bank run rather than outright political violence (athough the thought of a desperate young Spaniard kidnapping Barroso and inflicting a Tom Knoxy end on him and posting it on Youtube is delicious beyond words).
Indeed. Just wait until countries form their own vested special interest groups and start using QMV to gang up on other nations interests within the council and the real disgreements begin. It will all end in tears. I have no doubt.
@tim Let's agree that 800,000 Britons live in Spain. Where are the other 1.2 million?
I'm guessing that theres about half a million in France and Ireland.
Anyhow, you can ring the Foreign Office and ask them why they are claiming 800,000 Brits in Spain, more than you were claiming for the whole of Europe.
Actually more than Eurostat using actual census numbers rather than dodgy estimates were using./
Even your own link to Channel 4 fact check supported Socrates rather than your unsubstantiated claims.
@RichardNabavi: "There will undoubtedly be SOME concessions from our EU friends."
I am more pessimistic than you. I don't think there will be anything of any substance. The appalling levels of unemployment, austerity and lack of democracy should have been enough by now to lead to revolts against the nonsense perpetrated by those inflicting the euro on Europe. Instead of which they're all holding onto nurse for fear of something worse.
Europe is sorting out its problems by exporting its young. That's the way a continent dies. It's an appalling waste caused by a dogmatic adherence to a particular version of what was - and still is - a good idea (co-operation rather than war within Europe). How the left can support such a faith - when the results are there to see all over Europe - beats me.
Really? I think you'll find that Europe has massively more immigration of 18-24 year olds than emmigration.
I'm feeling generous. We'll bend over backwards for tim's argument. Let's accept his preferred source is the best one for Spain. Let's also ignore the residency number and include those living there for "part of the year". I'm also accepting Ireland, even though I'm pretty sure Britons living there wouldn't have their status changed, due to existing law. If he can't get to two million under these conditions, he will look silly.
We currently have:
Spain: 800,000 France & Ireland: 500,000
1.3 million in total. Where are the other 700,000?
As I understand it in all these areas between 2014 and 2017 the following areas go from unanimity to Qualified Majority Voting.
... ... Withdrawal of a member state ... ...
??!!??
Good spot! I think it must refer to the negotiations for terms after withdrawal:
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
Singling Apple out is unfair: patent wars have substantially replaced innovation. The value of patents is seen in litigation awards and, equally, the ability to stop or hinder product distribution. That's not to say that we should take the Wikileaks approach and decry anyone who claims that intellectual property should have financial value or give its holder certain rights but the fair use/licence approach is not working hugely well.
I single Apple out as one of the most litigious major companies around. This is compounded by the US patent office approving things which are (to the common man) unbelievably obvious an un-innovative. These are then used to sue others into oblivion and create the false (IMO) impression that Apple are being ripped off left, right, and centre. Not to say they don't have their imitators, but claiming infringement because a competitor also used "rounded corners" on their tablet is ridiculous.
You don't get patents for innovations. They are for inventions. The USPTO grants them according to US patent law. A lot of stuff looks obvious in retrospect, but was not at the time the patent was ganted.
Rounded corners was a design patent/registered community design (in Europe). The criteria for granting these is very different to those applied to invention patents.
Apple successfully patented 'slide to unlock' and 'bounce back' (where you drag left at the end of the available screens, and the image moves and bit then springs back). I struggle to see either of these as a protected invention, innovative or otherwise. The first has been invalidated by a German court as being obvious, so it's not just my opinion here.
Anyway, I didn't enter this conversation purely to have a go at Apple, but to bemoan the current state (IMO) of patent law in the EU and US.
The problem, though, is that if we can't persuade our EU friends to reshape it, and leave, it will still be there, still unreformed, and we will still be largely subject to its influence or worse.
Interestingly Bloomberg reports that the EU's moribund state was the subject of some criticism from the US at the recent G-7.
We have one of the largest British consular networks in the world with consulates in Alicante, Barcelona, Bilbao, Ibiza, Las Palmas, Málaga, Palma de Mallorca and Tenerife. These offices deal with a wide range of issues in a country that receives around 13 million British visitors a year and where an estimated 800,000 Britons live for all or part of the year.
Yes, thanks for the correction. I made a mistake and overstated the numbers. Still, my underlying point remains. While it's not quite "millions" of Britons living in other EU countries, it's still a very large number, and this will pose a conundrum that UKIP will have to deal with at some point.
However, I've learnt a valuable lesson that it's easy to make a mistake with numbers when posting on an informal blog. I've been a bit rash in the past in demonising people I've corrected and I promise to be more conciliatory in future. Sorry!
Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.
Tim and certain other lefties are part of the "No apology necessary" club... and if you pull them on it your posts go down the memory hole
Socrates claims fewer than 800,000 Brits living in the whole of the EU.
The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain. Residency is difficult to measure, but estimates vary from 250,000 to 400,000.
The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain. Residency is difficult to measure, but estimates vary from 250,000 to 400,000.
Richard - where is the timetable for these discussions with Europe ? Started ? Start date ? End date for 2017 referendum
Start date 8th May 2015, if the British public so desire.
Of course it is not British government policy to start negotiations now. How could it be? There's no parliamentary majority for it, a point which Douglas Carswell seems to have forgotten.
Is it beyond the wit of man for Conservative representatives to be speaking unofficially to say Mrs Merkel's party etc ?
If the policy is to do ferk all until 8th May 2015 then Cameron is totally stuffed - again it's being reactive not pro-active.
But Carswell was speaking to UKREP - civil servants who work for the government not the Tories
I think its because you said (paraphrase) "what about all the millions of Brits living abroad in the EU
Your sidekick Southam has just found 400,000 Brits resident in France, lets go with the top end of 450,000 resident in Spain you only have 1,150,000 to go
* by the way I have no stake in how many live wherever, never have said a word on it except immigration is not something that can be measured on stats alone
I know this is crazy wishful thinking, but wouldn't it be amusing if a third of the Labour vote had gone to UKIP after Ed committed to no EU referendum.
@Rcs: I was thinking of the Spaniards who are leaving Spain to go to South America and the Irish who are leaving Ireland to go and work in Australia and NZ.
I don't know the overall figures for the whole of the EU so don't want to mislead but the levels of youth unemployment are appalling. Either those people will leave or will make mischief. Either way, Europe risks losing the talents of a whole generation purely because of a rigif adherence to the euro-faith rather than realising that a currency is there to serve the people not be their master.
I know this is crazy wishful thinking, but wouldn't it be amusing if a third of the Labour vote had gone to UKIP after Ed committed to no EU referendum.
Unlikely, as the usual fieldwork for an ICM is Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
So most of the fieldwork would have happened prior to that.
@Rcs: I was thinking of the Spaniards who are leaving Spain to go to South America and the Irish who are leaving Ireland to go and work in Australia and NZ.
I don't know the overall figures for the whole of the EU so don't want to mislead but the levels of youth unemployment are appalling. Either those people will leave or will make mischief. Either way, Europe risks losing the talents of a whole generation purely because of a rigif adherence to the euro-faith rather than realising that a currency is there to serve the people not be their master.
That's true: but it's worth remembering that many educated Irish and Brits left in the 1970s, before seeing (in both cases) glorious 1980s, so I wouldn't read too much into it.
Yes, thanks for the correction. I made a mistake and overstated the numbers. Still, my underlying point remains. While it's not quite "millions" of Britons living in other EU countries, it's still a very large number, and this will pose a conundrum that UKIP will have to deal with at some point.
However, I've learnt a valuable lesson that it's easy to make a mistake with numbers when posting on an informal blog. I've been a bit rash in the past in demonising people I've corrected and I promise to be more conciliatory in future. Sorry!
Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.
Tim and certain other lefties are part of the "No apology necessary" club... and if you pull them on it your posts go down the memory hole
Socrates claims fewer than 800,000 Brits living in the whole of the EU.
The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain. Residency is difficult to measure, but estimates vary from 250,000 to 400,000.
You'd have seen it if you hadn't jumped in so fast.
Now any original sources for you Catholic adoption agency claims yet?
(Whats the rate for tuition at Eton, I'll bill you monthly if you like, the vaccine stuff was three hours, two hours yesterday)
I know more about vaccines than you do. I also know more about reading scientific papers and using statistics than you do. You know more about new world wines than I do. Let's leave it at that shall we?
I know this is crazy wishful thinking, but wouldn't it be amusing if a third of the Labour vote had gone to UKIP after Ed committed to no EU referendum.
Does anyone outside of PB actually know that Miliband made a speech this weekend? If Labour has dropped a lot it will be more to do with general failings (of which EdM is one, of course) rather than specifics.
@taffys - Yes, realism is not in fashion. That doesn't alter the facts.
The truth of the matter is that Cameron's position is incredibly difficult. He doesn't have a majority. Blair and Brown threw away most of the bargaining chips, quite gratuitously, for nothing in return. Because of the ease with which the Stay In side could deploy fear and doubt, winning an Out referendum would be near-impossible, even if he wanted us to leave the EU, and losing one so we stay in under the current terms would throw away our only opportunity in a generation to improve things. The frothers frothing just makes it worse; they won't listen to reason, argue the most absurd nonsenses, and seem determined to cut off their noses to spite our faces by ushering PM Miliband into No 10.
There are no easy answers to getting us out of the mess which Blair and Brown left.
This is getting nearer the mark. The next step is to lose the GIs (Gratuitous Insults)--- 'frothers.....' and we might be able to have a reasoned discussion.
Suppose that UKIP could be persuaded that the economic benefits, as opposed to political benefits, to BOO are significant, rather than huge, which is true. Suppose the euro-enthusiasts accepted that the economic benefits of staying in are marginal rather than great. The gap is far smaller than the rhetoric suggests. Maybe we could have a sensible debate, and keep everything in proportion?
The discussion would be move on to what is 'good politics' rather than what is 'good economics'. Maybe different views would be given more respect?
"Jaw-dropping" in ICM terms would probably be covered by UKIP overhauling LDs; or Tory lead over UKIP being smaller than Labour lead over Tory; or possibly the Tory-Labour gap extending to record levels due to UKIP advance.
Alternatively, something really freaky could have happened if they've reweighted their subsamples due to new figures for UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU.
[edit - for completeness, UKIP overtaking Tory would obviously fit the bill but seems too unlikely to contemplate]
Makes sense. NOT having been a Minister will be a positive when it comes to choosing a new leader. Farron is the only likely candidate who will be able to say "Well, it wasn't me".
Big kipper inroads, the local election results have put them firmly into the national psyche (Was high up BBC's most read). Probably at the expense of CON mostly but also off other parties.
This is getting nearer the mark. The next step is to lose the GIs (Gratuitous Insults)--- 'frothers.....' and we might be able to have a reasoned discussion.
Suppose that UKIP could be persuaded that the economic benefits, as opposed to political benefits, to BOO are significant, rather than huge, which is true. Suppose the euro-enthusiasts accepted that the economic benefits of staying in are marginal rather than great. The gap is far smaller than the rhetoric suggests. Maybe we could have a sensible debate, and keep everything in proportion?
The discussion would be move on to what is 'good politics' rather than what is 'good economics'. Maybe different views would be given more respect?
Yes, that would be great.
The whole debate should be, as you indicate, about balancing advantages vs disadvantages, taking account of where we start from and what is politically possible.
This is getting nearer the mark. The next step is to lose the GIs (Gratuitous Insults)--- 'frothers.....' and we might be able to have a reasoned discussion.
Suppose that UKIP could be persuaded that the economic benefits, as opposed to political benefits, to BOO are significant, rather than huge, which is true. Suppose the euro-enthusiasts accepted that the economic benefits of staying in are marginal rather than great. The gap is far smaller than the rhetoric suggests. Maybe we could have a sensible debate, and keep everything in proportion?
The discussion would be move on to what is 'good politics' rather than what is 'good economics'. Maybe different views would be given more respect?
Yes, that would be great.
The whole debate should be, as you indicate, about balancing advantages vs disadvantages, taking account of where we start from and what is politically possible.
I agree. Bilateral trade deal versus EU post Dave's renegotiation.
I see that Obama is part of the "Call me Dave", elite:
Not "the prime minister and I agree" etc., but Dave agrees with me - I said to dave Etc. How humiliating for the UK when it's PM is treated like a poodle.
James Kirkup @jameskirkup Obama on UK/EU: See if you can fix what's broken in a v important relationship before you break the relationship.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound Obama is basically bitch-slapping the Tory Party
No, he's bitch-slapping the non-Cameron-supporting elements of the Tory party, which is not the same thing. I suspect they won't be very impressed, however.
@Tim as I have posted as near ad infinitum as it is possible for someone with only about 30 posts on Vanilla there is no suggestion at all that British retirees in Spain would be expelled if we left the EU. My mum obtained Spanish Residencia in 1990 on the basis of her pension and there is no reason to think that she would lose it if the UK withdrew.
3,000 up yet? Astonished that there isn't a pb sweep on the time of the post.
Al Beeb ticker: President Obama on UK and EU relationship - 'You probably want to see if you can fix what's broken before you break it off'
Still waiting for CAP to be sorted out, still waiting for EU accounts to be signed off, still waiting for system of checks and balances re net contributions, still waiting for Euro to stop destroying jobs and growth.
Comments
Initiatives of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs
Rules concerning the Armaments Agency
Freedom to establish a business
Self-employment access rights
Freedom, security and justice – cooperation and evaluation
Border controls
Asylum
Immigration
Crime prevention incentives
Eurojust
Police cooperation
Europol
Transport
European Central Bank
Culture
Structural and Cohension Funds
Organisation of the Council of the European Union
European Court of Justice
Freedom of movement for workers
Social security
Criminal judicial cooperation
Criminal law
President of the European Council election (New item)
Foreign Affairs High Representative election (New item)
Funding the Common Foreign and Security Policy
Common defense policy
Withdrawal of a member state (new item)
General economic interest services
Diplomatic and consular protection
Citizens initiative regulations
Intellectual property
Eurozone external representation
Sport
Space
Energy
Tourism
Civil protection
Administrative cooperation
Emergency international aid
Humanitarian aid
Response to natural disasters or terrorism (new item)
Economic and Social Committee
Committee of the Regions
Economic and Social Committee
The EU budget
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_in_the_Council_of_the_European_Union
I do wonder if Cameron's intended negotiations are will be more focussed on returning some of these powers which we have yet to lose rather than recovering powers we have already lost. It would explain why he is so resistant to talking about such matters now. Meanwhile I hear there is talk of removing 30 of the Criminal Justice opt-outs and keeping the European Arrest Warrant.
Even now more areas are being handed over.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/law/2013/may/11/may-backlash-european-arrest-warrant
With the long hard trudge of ever closer union never stopping how do we know what Cameron agrees down the line would even bring us back to the level of sovereignty we have today?
Maybe use that in the next Election campaign?
David Cameron’s position is that he is trying to persuade the Golf Club to play tennis, but that if they refuse, he will continue to play golf.
- Michael Forsyth, on Daily Politics today, describing the posture of the Prime Minister with regard to the European Union.
Does it count those living there "partially", i.e. the odd weekend, like the Spanish number?
Also - and happy to be corrected on this - I believe British citizens have always been allowed to settle in the Republic of Ireland, so why would it change their status if we left the EU?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10050585/Europe-stifles-us-and-Nigel-Lawson-is-right-its-time-to-leave.html
Lordy! There will not be a truly sovereign country left in Europe. Have the people of Europe OK'ed this in referendums? Thought not. It will end badly. Probably via the mechanism of a bank run rather than outright political violence (athough the thought of a desperate young Spaniard kidnapping Barroso and inflicting a Tom Knoxy end on him and posting it on Youtube is delicious beyond words).
Rounded corners was a design patent/registered community design (in Europe). The criteria for granting these is very different to those applied to invention patents.
The result of this is to change the nature of Europe and the protections we previously enjoyed through the Council of Ministers. The question now is what can be done to make EU membership attractive to members who do not want to join the euro? This will indeed need a change of shape rather than a change of competences. We need guarantees that the euro bloc will not act against our interests.
If we can't get them we leave. Ultimately it will be that simple but there is some reluctance in the EU to make non euro membership too comfortable because it might discourage others from joining. These will be difficult negotiations and the idea of having Mr Miliband looking out for our interests is truly terrifying. Maybe he will have another cry if he does not get his own way.
I am more pessimistic than you. I don't think there will be anything of any substance. The appalling levels of unemployment, austerity and lack of democracy should have been enough by now to lead to revolts against the nonsense perpetrated by those inflicting the euro on Europe. Instead of which they're all holding onto nurse for fear of something worse.
Europe is sorting out its problems by exporting its young. That's the way a continent dies. It's an appalling waste caused by a dogmatic adherence to a particular version of what was - and still is - a good idea (co-operation rather than war within Europe). How the left can support such a faith - when the results are there to see all over Europe - beats me.
Even your own link to Channel 4 fact check supported Socrates rather than your unsubstantiated claims.
I'm feeling generous. We'll bend over backwards for tim's argument. Let's accept his preferred source is the best one for Spain. Let's also ignore the residency number and include those living there for "part of the year". I'm also accepting Ireland, even though I'm pretty sure Britons living there wouldn't have their status changed, due to existing law. If he can't get to two million under these conditions, he will look silly.
We currently have:
Spain: 800,000
France & Ireland: 500,000
1.3 million in total. Where are the other 700,000?
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own
constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:C:2012:326:0013:0046:EN:PDF
Article 50
Now that is just funny!
UK: We are leaving because that is what the people voted for in a referendum
EU: You can't because everyone else said no
UK:Fire!
EU: Incoming!
Anyway, I didn't enter this conversation purely to have a go at Apple, but to bemoan the current state (IMO) of patent law in the EU and US.
Interestingly Bloomberg reports that the EU's moribund state was the subject of some criticism from the US at the recent G-7.
https://www.gov.uk/government/priority/supporting-british-nationals-in-france
From your own link
The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain. Residency is difficult to measure, but estimates vary from 250,000 to 400,000.
Because you said "millions", not "over a million".
Today's been depressing enough
1) There's thousands of Manchester United fans outside my front door getting ready for their parade
2) My son has announced he likes Manchester United.
Your sidekick Southam has just found 400,000 Brits resident in France, lets go with the top end of 450,000 resident in Spain you only have 1,150,000 to go
* by the way I have no stake in how many live wherever, never have said a word on it except immigration is not something that can be measured on stats alone
Only kidding.
TSE, has the thunder, rain and lightening not put them off yet?
"I love summer, it's my favourite day of the year"
I don't know the overall figures for the whole of the EU so don't want to mislead but the levels of youth unemployment are appalling. Either those people will leave or will make mischief. Either way, Europe risks losing the talents of a whole generation purely because of a rigif adherence to the euro-faith rather than realising that a currency is there to serve the people not be their master.
Oh and congratulations TSE, smart son you have there.
So most of the fieldwork would have happened prior to that.
politicshomeuk @politicshomeuk
.@David_Cameron reveals he has improved his knowledge of baseball - "I read a book about it",
You couldn't make it up!
1) tories in front of labour (yeah right)
2) UKIP in the 20s?
3) UKIP in front of the tories
Just to remind ourselves, the last ICM was
Con:32
Lab:38
LD:15
Don't have a UKIp figure..anyone?
What fun that will be!!!
They're due for a huge bounce then....
I'm struggling to imagine anything else remotely likely that would be jawdropping.
Suppose that UKIP could be persuaded that the economic benefits, as opposed to political benefits, to BOO are significant, rather than huge, which is true. Suppose the euro-enthusiasts accepted that the economic benefits of staying in are marginal rather than great. The gap is far smaller than the rhetoric suggests. Maybe we could have a sensible debate, and keep everything in proportion?
The discussion would be move on to what is 'good politics' rather than what is 'good economics'. Maybe different views would be given more respect?
Alternatively, something really freaky could have happened if they've reweighted their subsamples due to new figures for UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU.
[edit - for completeness, UKIP overtaking Tory would obviously fit the bill but seems too unlikely to contemplate]
Edit: Not that I'm predicting a Tory lead.
There would be a way of spinning it
Probably that everyone who didnt say Labour is a racist
Lib Dems down to 5%
Lib Dems up to 20%
Labour down below 30%
Labour above 50%
But you're right, it's not even remotely likely.
Lab 32 (-6)
LD 15 (flat)
UKIP 15 (+6)
I'd admit not very likely, but still on the edge of possible, and I like symmetry
Maybe a supplementary showing that 96% of Labour supporters think Ed is crap.
I admit that I'm using a fairly loose definition of "remotely", so it's St Kilda rather than Pitcairn Island.
In age of (right) methodological smoothing, love me some polling action. @ICMResearch @guardian_clark
Here is my prediction:
Con: 28 (-4)
Lab: 37 (-1)
LD: 13 (-2)
UKIP: 16 (+7)
The whole debate should be, as you indicate, about balancing advantages vs disadvantages, taking account of where we start from and what is politically possible.
Con 32% (+1)
Lab 38% (-1)
LD 15% (nc)
UKIP 9% (+2)
May (guess)
Con 27
Lab 35
Ld 14
Ukip 17
"In age of (right) methodological smoothing, love me some polling action."
Never knowingly undersold.
I take back all the nasty things I've said about twitter.
Not "the prime minister and I agree" etc., but Dave agrees with me - I said to dave Etc.
How humiliating for the UK when it's PM is treated like a poodle.
My life is now complete.
Interesting.
3,000 up yet? Astonished that there isn't a pb sweep on the time of the post.
Still waiting for CAP to be sorted out, still waiting for EU accounts to be signed off, still waiting for system of checks and balances re net contributions, still waiting for Euro to stop destroying jobs and growth.