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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Clegg does move on my money would now be on Tim Farron

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  • As I understand it in all these areas between 2014 and 2017 the following areas go from unanimity to Qualified Majority Voting.

    Initiatives of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs
    Rules concerning the Armaments Agency
    Freedom to establish a business
    Self-employment access rights
    Freedom, security and justice – cooperation and evaluation
    Border controls
    Asylum
    Immigration
    Crime prevention incentives
    Eurojust
    Police cooperation
    Europol
    Transport
    European Central Bank
    Culture
    Structural and Cohension Funds
    Organisation of the Council of the European Union
    European Court of Justice
    Freedom of movement for workers
    Social security
    Criminal judicial cooperation
    Criminal law
    President of the European Council election (New item)
    Foreign Affairs High Representative election (New item)
    Funding the Common Foreign and Security Policy
    Common defense policy
    Withdrawal of a member state (new item)
    General economic interest services
    Diplomatic and consular protection
    Citizens initiative regulations
    Intellectual property
    Eurozone external representation
    Sport
    Space
    Energy
    Tourism
    Civil protection
    Administrative cooperation
    Emergency international aid
    Humanitarian aid
    Response to natural disasters or terrorism (new item)
    Economic and Social Committee
    Committee of the Regions
    Economic and Social Committee
    The EU budget


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_in_the_Council_of_the_European_Union

    I do wonder if Cameron's intended negotiations are will be more focussed on returning some of these powers which we have yet to lose rather than recovering powers we have already lost. It would explain why he is so resistant to talking about such matters now. Meanwhile I hear there is talk of removing 30 of the Criminal Justice opt-outs and keeping the European Arrest Warrant.

    Even now more areas are being handed over.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/law/2013/may/11/may-backlash-european-arrest-warrant

    With the long hard trudge of ever closer union never stopping how do we know what Cameron agrees down the line would even bring us back to the level of sovereignty we have today?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Good to see tim has confirmed that the Labour view of the white working class people whose towns have been subject to mass immigration is that they are "thick racists"

    Maybe use that in the next Election campaign?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Vicky Pryce is writing a new book on game theory. The ex-prisoners' dilemma.
  • Seen over at Samizdata:

    David Cameron’s position is that he is trying to persuade the Golf Club to play tennis, but that if they refuse, he will continue to play golf.

    - Michael Forsyth, on Daily Politics today, describing the posture of the Prime Minister with regard to the European Union.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    @tim Let's agree that 800,000 Britons live in Spain. Where are the other 1.2 million?

    I'm guessing that theres about half a million in France and Ireland.

    Anyhow, you can ring the Foreign Office and ask them why they are claiming 800,000 Brits in Spain, more than you were claiming for the whole of Europe.

    Do you have a source for that half million in France and Ireland?

    Does it count those living there "partially", i.e. the odd weekend, like the Spanish number?

    Also - and happy to be corrected on this - I believe British citizens have always been allowed to settle in the Republic of Ireland, so why would it change their status if we left the EU?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2013

    As I understand it in all these areas between 2014 and 2017 the following areas go from unanimity to Qualified Majority Voting.

    ...
    ...
    Withdrawal of a member state
    ...

    ...

    ??!!??

  • Patrick said:

    Seen over at Samizdata:

    David Cameron’s position is that he is trying to persuade the Golf Club to play tennis, but that if they refuse, he will continue to play golf.

    - Michael Forsyth, on Daily Politics today, describing the posture of the Prime Minister with regard to the European Union.

    Here's the full article:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10050585/Europe-stifles-us-and-Nigel-Lawson-is-right-its-time-to-leave.html
  • @smithersjones2013

    Lordy! There will not be a truly sovereign country left in Europe. Have the people of Europe OK'ed this in referendums? Thought not. It will end badly. Probably via the mechanism of a bank run rather than outright political violence (athough the thought of a desperate young Spaniard kidnapping Barroso and inflicting a Tom Knoxy end on him and posting it on Youtube is delicious beyond words).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    Anorak said:

    Marches said:

    Singling Apple out is unfair: patent wars have substantially replaced innovation. The value of patents is seen in litigation awards and, equally, the ability to stop or hinder product distribution. That's not to say that we should take the Wikileaks approach and decry anyone who claims that intellectual property should have financial value or give its holder certain rights but the fair use/licence approach is not working hugely well.

    I single Apple out as one of the most litigious major companies around. This is compounded by the US patent office approving things which are (to the common man) unbelievably obvious an un-innovative. These are then used to sue others into oblivion and create the false (IMO) impression that Apple are being ripped off left, right, and centre. Not to say they don't have their imitators, but claiming infringement because a competitor also used "rounded corners" on their tablet is ridiculous.

    You don't get patents for innovations. They are for inventions. The USPTO grants them according to US patent law. A lot of stuff looks obvious in retrospect, but was not at the time the patent was ganted.

    Rounded corners was a design patent/registered community design (in Europe). The criteria for granting these is very different to those applied to invention patents.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    @tim Let's agree that 800,000 Britons live in Spain. Where are the other 1.2 million?

    I'm guessing that theres about half a million in France and Ireland.

    Anyhow, you can ring the Foreign Office and ask them why they are claiming 800,000 Brits in Spain, more than you were claiming for the whole of Europe.

    Come on now, less of it, the article you quoted said as few as 250,000 residents

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    Cyclefree said:

    Either we get to reshape Europe in a way which works for all or we get out. Cameron is not prepared to say - or even - think this.

    He went a long way towards saying that in his big EU speech, which did indeed concentrate on how the EU should be reshaped.

    The problem, though, is that if we can't persuade our EU friends to reshape it, and leave, it will still be there, still unreformed, and we will still be largely subject to its influence or worse.

    Cameron's optimistic view is that, over a period of three to four years, and against the background of the Eurozone crisis and the structural reforms which most observers agree are necessary to address that, it can be reshaped.

    He may be over-optimistic in this (certainly it won't be easy). But it would seem very silly not to even try.
    I think that is the key to it Richard. This UK government (unlike the last which simply stuck its fingers in its ears and eyes and lied) has recognised that the Euro is a key stage in the development of a federal europe because so many other things need to change for it to work. The UK has supported the idea of these changes as it is apprehensive that the euro would otherwise collapse with severe economic consequences.

    The result of this is to change the nature of Europe and the protections we previously enjoyed through the Council of Ministers. The question now is what can be done to make EU membership attractive to members who do not want to join the euro? This will indeed need a change of shape rather than a change of competences. We need guarantees that the euro bloc will not act against our interests.

    If we can't get them we leave. Ultimately it will be that simple but there is some reluctance in the EU to make non euro membership too comfortable because it might discourage others from joining. These will be difficult negotiations and the idea of having Mr Miliband looking out for our interests is truly terrifying. Maybe he will have another cry if he does not get his own way.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    @RichardNabavi: "There will undoubtedly be SOME concessions from our EU friends."

    I am more pessimistic than you. I don't think there will be anything of any substance. The appalling levels of unemployment, austerity and lack of democracy should have been enough by now to lead to revolts against the nonsense perpetrated by those inflicting the euro on Europe. Instead of which they're all holding onto nurse for fear of something worse.

    Europe is sorting out its problems by exporting its young. That's the way a continent dies. It's an appalling waste caused by a dogmatic adherence to a particular version of what was - and still is - a good idea (co-operation rather than war within Europe). How the left can support such a faith - when the results are there to see all over Europe - beats me.

  • Patrick said:

    @smithersjones2013

    Lordy! There will not be a truly sovereign country left in Europe. Have the people of Europe OK'ed this in referendums? Thought not. It will end badly. Probably via the mechanism of a bank run rather than outright political violence (athough the thought of a desperate young Spaniard kidnapping Barroso and inflicting a Tom Knoxy end on him and posting it on Youtube is delicious beyond words).

    Indeed. Just wait until countries form their own vested special interest groups and start using QMV to gang up on other nations interests within the council and the real disgreements begin. It will all end in tears. I have no doubt.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,639
    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    @tim Let's agree that 800,000 Britons live in Spain. Where are the other 1.2 million?

    I'm guessing that theres about half a million in France and Ireland.

    Anyhow, you can ring the Foreign Office and ask them why they are claiming 800,000 Brits in Spain, more than you were claiming for the whole of Europe.

    Actually more than Eurostat using actual census numbers rather than dodgy estimates were using./

    Even your own link to Channel 4 fact check supported Socrates rather than your unsubstantiated claims.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,304
    Cyclefree said:

    @RichardNabavi: "There will undoubtedly be SOME concessions from our EU friends."

    I am more pessimistic than you. I don't think there will be anything of any substance. The appalling levels of unemployment, austerity and lack of democracy should have been enough by now to lead to revolts against the nonsense perpetrated by those inflicting the euro on Europe. Instead of which they're all holding onto nurse for fear of something worse.

    Europe is sorting out its problems by exporting its young. That's the way a continent dies. It's an appalling waste caused by a dogmatic adherence to a particular version of what was - and still is - a good idea (co-operation rather than war within Europe). How the left can support such a faith - when the results are there to see all over Europe - beats me.

    Really? I think you'll find that Europe has massively more immigration of 18-24 year olds than emmigration.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Charles

    I'm feeling generous. We'll bend over backwards for tim's argument. Let's accept his preferred source is the best one for Spain. Let's also ignore the residency number and include those living there for "part of the year". I'm also accepting Ireland, even though I'm pretty sure Britons living there wouldn't have their status changed, due to existing law. If he can't get to two million under these conditions, he will look silly.

    We currently have:

    Spain: 800,000
    France & Ireland: 500,000

    1.3 million in total. Where are the other 700,000?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    Anorak said:

    As I understand it in all these areas between 2014 and 2017 the following areas go from unanimity to Qualified Majority Voting.

    ...
    ...
    Withdrawal of a member state
    ...

    ...

    ??!!??

    Good spot! I think it must refer to the negotiations for terms after withdrawal:

    1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own
    constitutional requirements.

    2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.


    http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:C:2012:326:0013:0046:EN:PDF

    Article 50
  • Anorak said:

    As I understand it in all these areas between 2014 and 2017 the following areas go from unanimity to Qualified Majority Voting.

    ...
    ...
    Withdrawal of a member state
    ...

    ...

    ??!!??

    Indeed that made me wonder too
  • @anorak

    Now that is just funny!

    UK: We are leaving because that is what the people voted for in a referendum
    EU: You can't because everyone else said no
    UK:Fire!
    EU: Incoming!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2013

    Anorak said:

    Marches said:

    Singling Apple out is unfair: patent wars have substantially replaced innovation. The value of patents is seen in litigation awards and, equally, the ability to stop or hinder product distribution. That's not to say that we should take the Wikileaks approach and decry anyone who claims that intellectual property should have financial value or give its holder certain rights but the fair use/licence approach is not working hugely well.

    I single Apple out as one of the most litigious major companies around. This is compounded by the US patent office approving things which are (to the common man) unbelievably obvious an un-innovative. These are then used to sue others into oblivion and create the false (IMO) impression that Apple are being ripped off left, right, and centre. Not to say they don't have their imitators, but claiming infringement because a competitor also used "rounded corners" on their tablet is ridiculous.

    You don't get patents for innovations. They are for inventions. The USPTO grants them according to US patent law. A lot of stuff looks obvious in retrospect, but was not at the time the patent was ganted.

    Rounded corners was a design patent/registered community design (in Europe). The criteria for granting these is very different to those applied to invention patents.
    Apple successfully patented 'slide to unlock' and 'bounce back' (where you drag left at the end of the available screens, and the image moves and bit then springs back). I struggle to see either of these as a protected invention, innovative or otherwise. The first has been invalidated by a German court as being obvious, so it's not just my opinion here.

    Anyway, I didn't enter this conversation purely to have a go at Apple, but to bemoan the current state (IMO) of patent law in the EU and US.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The problem, though, is that if we can't persuade our EU friends to reshape it, and leave, it will still be there, still unreformed, and we will still be largely subject to its influence or worse.


    Interestingly Bloomberg reports that the EU's moribund state was the subject of some criticism from the US at the recent G-7.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    there are approximately 400,000 British nationals resident in France and another 400,000 who own second homes

    https://www.gov.uk/government/priority/supporting-british-nationals-in-france
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    tim said:

    @Sam

    We have one of the largest British consular networks in the world with consulates in Alicante, Barcelona, Bilbao, Ibiza, Las Palmas, Málaga, Palma de Mallorca and Tenerife. These offices deal with a wide range of issues in a country that receives around 13 million British visitors a year and where an estimated 800,000 Britons live for all or part of the year.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/world/organisations/british-embassy-madrid

    @Socrates

    Does it count those living there "partially", i.e. the odd weekend, like the Spanish number?

    The number visiting for the "odd weekend" appears to be 13 million.

    Are those unique visitors in that 13m, or number of visits?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    sam said:

    Socrates said:

    @tim

    May I suggest a good response to go with? How about this one:

    tim said:

    @Socrates

    Yes, thanks for the correction. I made a mistake and overstated the numbers. Still, my underlying point remains. While it's not quite "millions" of Britons living in other EU countries, it's still a very large number, and this will pose a conundrum that UKIP will have to deal with at some point.

    However, I've learnt a valuable lesson that it's easy to make a mistake with numbers when posting on an informal blog. I've been a bit rash in the past in demonising people I've corrected and I promise to be more conciliatory in future. Sorry!

    Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.
    Tim and certain other lefties are part of the "No apology necessary" club... and if you pull them on it your posts go down the memory hole


    Socrates claims fewer than 800,000 Brits living in the whole of the EU.

    The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain. Residency is difficult to measure, but estimates vary from 250,000 to 400,000.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/expat-money/10046400/Expats-feeling-the-pain-in-Spain-should-think-twice-before-fleeing.html

    From your own link

    The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain. Residency is difficult to measure, but estimates vary from 250,000 to 400,000.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2013
    The first non-YouGov and phone poll since the local elections is coming up. ICM's Martin Boon describes it as "jaw-dropping"
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @MikeSmithson Tease!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    The first non-YouGov and phone poll since the local elections is coming up. ICM's Martin Boon describes it as "jaw-dropping"

    UKIP a go-go?
  • ...sounds ominous for Dave and for the yellows...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @tim

    Because you said "millions", not "over a million".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The first non-YouGov and phone poll since the local elections is coming up. ICM's Martin Boon describes it as "jaw-dropping"

    Any idea what time it'll be out?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Please let the ICM be good for the Tories.

    Today's been depressing enough

    1) There's thousands of Manchester United fans outside my front door getting ready for their parade

    2) My son has announced he likes Manchester United.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    The first non-YouGov and phone poll since the local elections is coming up. ICM's Martin Boon describes it as "jaw-dropping"

    Such an announcement and in bold too.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Behold the coming of the UKIPalypse!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Richard - where is the timetable for these discussions with Europe ? Started ? Start date ? End date for 2017 referendum

    Start date 8th May 2015, if the British public so desire.

    Of course it is not British government policy to start negotiations now. How could it be? There's no parliamentary majority for it, a point which Douglas Carswell seems to have forgotten.
    Is it beyond the wit of man for Conservative representatives to be speaking unofficially to say Mrs Merkel's party etc ?

    If the policy is to do ferk all until 8th May 2015 then Cameron is totally stuffed - again it's being reactive not pro-active.

    But Carswell was speaking to UKREP - civil servants who work for the government not the Tories
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Eagles, you took your son to dwell within Mordor. You cannot complain if he starts wanting to join a gang of orcs.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @Socrates.

    Why do I need to get to two million?

    I think its because you said (paraphrase) "what about all the millions of Brits living abroad in the EU

    Your sidekick Southam has just found 400,000 Brits resident in France, lets go with the top end of 450,000 resident in Spain you only have 1,150,000 to go


    * by the way I have no stake in how many live wherever, never have said a word on it except immigration is not something that can be measured on stats alone



  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,304
    Apparently it's a second Cleggasm, with the LibDem's doubling their share and over-taking the Conservatves who are pushed down into fourth place.

    Only kidding.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Please let the ICM be good for the Tories.

    Today's been depressing enough

    1) There's thousands of Manchester United fans outside my front door getting ready for their parade

    2) My son has announced he likes Manchester United.



    TSE, has the thunder, rain and lightening not put them off yet?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    JonathanD said:

    Please let the ICM be good for the Tories.

    Today's been depressing enough

    1) There's thousands of Manchester United fans outside my front door getting ready for their parade

    2) My son has announced he likes Manchester United.



    TSE, has the thunder, rain and lightening not put them off yet?
    It's Manchester, as the old joke goes around here.

    "I love summer, it's my favourite day of the year"
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I know this is crazy wishful thinking, but wouldn't it be amusing if a third of the Labour vote had gone to UKIP after Ed committed to no EU referendum.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    @Rcs: I was thinking of the Spaniards who are leaving Spain to go to South America and the Irish who are leaving Ireland to go and work in Australia and NZ.

    I don't know the overall figures for the whole of the EU so don't want to mislead but the levels of youth unemployment are appalling. Either those people will leave or will make mischief. Either way, Europe risks losing the talents of a whole generation purely because of a rigif adherence to the euro-faith rather than realising that a currency is there to serve the people not be their master.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    edited May 2013
    Will UKIP be in second place? Wouldn't surprise me too much.

    Oh and congratulations TSE, smart son you have there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Socrates said:

    I know this is crazy wishful thinking, but wouldn't it be amusing if a third of the Labour vote had gone to UKIP after Ed committed to no EU referendum.

    Unlikely, as the usual fieldwork for an ICM is Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

    So most of the fieldwork would have happened prior to that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,304
    Cyclefree said:

    @Rcs: I was thinking of the Spaniards who are leaving Spain to go to South America and the Irish who are leaving Ireland to go and work in Australia and NZ.

    I don't know the overall figures for the whole of the EU so don't want to mislead but the levels of youth unemployment are appalling. Either those people will leave or will make mischief. Either way, Europe risks losing the talents of a whole generation purely because of a rigif adherence to the euro-faith rather than realising that a currency is there to serve the people not be their master.

    That's true: but it's worth remembering that many educated Irish and Brits left in the 1970s, before seeing (in both cases) glorious 1980s, so I wouldn't read too much into it.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    ...And this is our Prime Minister. Sang to: and this is my beloved; from Kismet.

    politicshomeuk ‏@politicshomeuk
    .@David_Cameron reveals he has improved his knowledge of baseball - "I read a book about it",

    You couldn't make it up!
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Have ICM ever had UKIP above the LDs? I assume that would be 'jaw-dropping' for ICM even if its normal for other pollsters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    MikeK said:

    ...And this is our Prime Minister. Sang to: and this is my beloved; from Kismet.

    politicshomeuk ‏@politicshomeuk
    .@David_Cameron reveals he has improved his knowledge of baseball - "I read a book about it",

    You couldn't make it up!

    I became an expert on baseball by reading a book, watching a couple of films.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    So, what would jaw dropping be:
    1) tories in front of labour (yeah right)
    2) UKIP in the 20s?
    3) UKIP in front of the tories

    Just to remind ourselves, the last ICM was
    Con:32
    Lab:38
    LD:15

    Don't have a UKIp figure..anyone?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    More likely that UKIP are now ahead of the Tories or level with them.

    What fun that will be!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,304
    More great stuff from xkcd: http://xkcd.com/135/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Martin Boon is not someone prone to hyperbole, so this poll will be genuinely jaw dropping.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    sam said:

    Socrates said:

    @tim

    May I suggest a good response to go with? How about this one:

    tim said:

    @Socrates

    Yes, thanks for the correction. I made a mistake and overstated the numbers. Still, my underlying point remains. While it's not quite "millions" of Britons living in other EU countries, it's still a very large number, and this will pose a conundrum that UKIP will have to deal with at some point.

    However, I've learnt a valuable lesson that it's easy to make a mistake with numbers when posting on an informal blog. I've been a bit rash in the past in demonising people I've corrected and I promise to be more conciliatory in future. Sorry!

    Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.
    Tim and certain other lefties are part of the "No apology necessary" club... and if you pull them on it your posts go down the memory hole


    Socrates claims fewer than 800,000 Brits living in the whole of the EU.

    The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain. Residency is difficult to measure, but estimates vary from 250,000 to 400,000.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/expat-money/10046400/Expats-feeling-the-pain-in-Spain-should-think-twice-before-fleeing.html
    So the Guardian yesterday wasn't a good source, but the Telegraph today wins your case?

    (and the article also says that *residency* which is more relevant here is 250-400K, not 800K
    Original source provided

    https://www.gov.uk/government/world/organisations/british-embassy-madrid

    You'd have seen it if you hadn't jumped in so fast.

    Now any original sources for you Catholic adoption agency claims yet?

    (Whats the rate for tuition at Eton, I'll bill you monthly if you like, the vaccine stuff was three hours, two hours yesterday)
    I know more about vaccines than you do. I also know more about reading scientific papers and using statistics than you do. You know more about new world wines than I do. Let's leave it at that shall we?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,969
    JonathanD said:

    Have ICM ever had UKIP above the LDs? I assume that would be 'jaw-dropping' for ICM even if its normal for other pollsters.

    It was 15 LD, 9 UKIP last time
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    So, what would jaw dropping be:
    1) tories in front of labour (yeah right)
    2) UKIP in the 20s?
    3) UKIP in front of the tories

    Just to remind ourselves, the last ICM was
    Con:32
    Lab:38
    LD:15

    Don't have a UKIp figure..anyone?

    UKIP were on 9%
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Just to answer my own question, UKIP were 9%

    They're due for a huge bounce then....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    So, what would jaw dropping be:
    1) tories in front of labour (yeah right)
    2) UKIP in the 20s?
    3) UKIP in front of the tories

    Just to remind ourselves, the last ICM was
    Con:32
    Lab:38
    LD:15

    Don't have a UKIp figure..anyone?

    UKIP were on 9% with the ICM April poll.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    Socrates said:

    I know this is crazy wishful thinking, but wouldn't it be amusing if a third of the Labour vote had gone to UKIP after Ed committed to no EU referendum.

    Does anyone outside of PB actually know that Miliband made a speech this weekend? If Labour has dropped a lot it will be more to do with general failings (of which EdM is one, of course) rather than specifics.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Do we have an ETA for the poll?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    UKIP approaching 20% would be jawdropping. The Conservatives slumping to 25% or thereabouts would be jawdropping.

    I'm struggling to imagine anything else remotely likely that would be jawdropping.
  • @taffys - Yes, realism is not in fashion. That doesn't alter the facts.

    The truth of the matter is that Cameron's position is incredibly difficult. He doesn't have a majority. Blair and Brown threw away most of the bargaining chips, quite gratuitously, for nothing in return. Because of the ease with which the Stay In side could deploy fear and doubt, winning an Out referendum would be near-impossible, even if he wanted us to leave the EU, and losing one so we stay in under the current terms would throw away our only opportunity in a generation to improve things. The frothers frothing just makes it worse; they won't listen to reason, argue the most absurd nonsenses, and seem determined to cut off their noses to spite our faces by ushering PM Miliband into No 10.

    There are no easy answers to getting us out of the mess which Blair and Brown left.

    This is getting nearer the mark. The next step is to lose the GIs (Gratuitous Insults)--- 'frothers.....' and we might be able to have a reasoned discussion.

    Suppose that UKIP could be persuaded that the economic benefits, as opposed to political benefits, to BOO are significant, rather than huge, which is true. Suppose the euro-enthusiasts accepted that the economic benefits of staying in are marginal rather than great. The gap is far smaller than the rhetoric suggests. Maybe we could have a sensible debate, and keep everything in proportion?

    The discussion would be move on to what is 'good politics' rather than what is 'good economics'. Maybe different views would be given more respect?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    edited May 2013
    "Jaw-dropping" in ICM terms would probably be covered by UKIP overhauling LDs; or Tory lead over UKIP being smaller than Labour lead over Tory; or possibly the Tory-Labour gap extending to record levels due to UKIP advance.

    Alternatively, something really freaky could have happened if they've reweighted their subsamples due to new figures for UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU.

    [edit - for completeness, UKIP overtaking Tory would obviously fit the bill but seems too unlikely to contemplate]
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited May 2013
    antifrank said:

    UKIP approaching 20% would be jawdropping. The Conservatives slumping to 25% or thereabouts would be jawdropping.

    I'm struggling to imagine anything else remotely likely that would be jawdropping.

    A Tory lead?

    Edit: Not that I'm predicting a Tory lead.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    JonathanD said:

    Have ICM ever had UKIP above the LDs? I assume that would be 'jaw-dropping' for ICM even if its normal for other pollsters.


    There would be a way of spinning it

    Probably that everyone who didnt say Labour is a racist

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Cyclefree said:

    More likely that UKIP are now ahead of the Tories or level with them.

    What fun that will be!!!

    That would require a huge huge surge: IE tories down 12, UKIP up 12....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @TheScreamingEagles I suppose it depends on your definition of "remotely likely".
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @antifrank

    Lib Dems down to 5%
    Lib Dems up to 20%
    Labour down below 30%
    Labour above 50%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    Makes sense. NOT having been a Minister will be a positive when it comes to choosing a new leader. Farron is the only likely candidate who will be able to say "Well, it wasn't me".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited May 2013
    antifrank said:

    @TheScreamingEagles I suppose it depends on your definition of "remotely likely".

    It only takes a slightly larger than MOE change for a Tory lead.

    But you're right, it's not even remotely likely.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    UKIP approaching 20% would be jawdropping. The Conservatives slumping to 25% or thereabouts would be jawdropping.

    I'm struggling to imagine anything else remotely likely that would be jawdropping.

    How about Con 32 (flat)
    Lab 32 (-6)
    LD 15 (flat)
    UKIP 15 (+6)

    I'd admit not very likely, but still on the edge of possible, and I like symmetry
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    UKIP in front of the lib dems is most likely, but then is that really anything new (well it is for ICM, but not all the other pollers).
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Farron is the only likely candidate who will be able to say "Well, it wasn't me".

    Typical Lib Dem - taking the Shaggy option.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    The jaw dropping thing could be something not to do with VI.

    Maybe a supplementary showing that 96% of Labour supporters think Ed is crap.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    UKIP approaching 20% would be jawdropping. The Conservatives slumping to 25% or thereabouts would be jawdropping.

    I'm struggling to imagine anything else remotely likely that would be jawdropping.

    How about Con 32 (flat)
    Lab 32 (-6)
    LD 15 (flat)
    UKIP 15 (+6)

    I'd admit not very likely, but still on the edge of possible, and I like symmetry
    And you like wishful thinking, too, it seems. I share your wish :(

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Socrates I don't see any of those as remotely likely.

    I admit that I'm using a fairly loose definition of "remotely", so it's St Kilda rather than Pitcairn Island.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    The jaw dropping thing could be something not to do with VI.

    Maybe a supplementary showing that 96% of Labour supporters think Ed is crap.

    That's just common sense..not jaw dropping. Everyone knows Ed is crap already.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Martin Boon ‏@martinboon 48s

    In age of (right) methodological smoothing, love me some polling action. @ICMResearch @guardian_clark
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    The jaw dropping thing could be something not to do with VI.

    Maybe a supplementary showing that 96% of Labour supporters think Ed is crap.

    *Hodges' jaw drops through floor at inexplicable stance of 4% of Labour supporters*
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,304
    Very interesting article on austerity in the FT today: http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/05/13/a-response-to-martin-wolf/#axzz2TBnaGMM3
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Neil said:

    Farron is the only likely candidate who will be able to say "Well, it wasn't me".

    Typical Lib Dem - taking the Shaggy option.
    Being a lib dem and shaggy in that song do both require a special level of being able to disengage from reality.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    Big kipper inroads, the local election results have put them firmly into the national psyche (Was high up BBC's most read). Probably at the expense of CON mostly but also off other parties.

    Here is my prediction:

    Con: 28 (-4)
    Lab: 37 (-1)
    LD: 13 (-2)
    UKIP: 16 (+7)

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413



    This is getting nearer the mark. The next step is to lose the GIs (Gratuitous Insults)--- 'frothers.....' and we might be able to have a reasoned discussion.

    Suppose that UKIP could be persuaded that the economic benefits, as opposed to political benefits, to BOO are significant, rather than huge, which is true. Suppose the euro-enthusiasts accepted that the economic benefits of staying in are marginal rather than great. The gap is far smaller than the rhetoric suggests. Maybe we could have a sensible debate, and keep everything in proportion?

    The discussion would be move on to what is 'good politics' rather than what is 'good economics'. Maybe different views would be given more respect?

    Yes, that would be great.

    The whole debate should be, as you indicate, about balancing advantages vs disadvantages, taking account of where we start from and what is politically possible.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    @Socrates I don't see any of those as remotely likely.

    I admit that I'm using a fairly loose definition of "remotely", so it's St Kilda rather than Pitcairn Island.

    There can't be much discrepancy between the categories of "jaw dropping" and "not remotely likely".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    April:

    Con 32% (+1)
    Lab 38% (-1)
    LD 15% (nc)
    UKIP 9% (+2)

    May (guess)

    Con 27
    Lab 35
    Ld 14
    Ukip 17

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    The ICM poll could be 90% of the electorate prefer to be ruled by a posho aristo Etonian toff.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    Might we just see in this poll another step on the road to a conclusion which makes this thread header relatively unimportant?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    "Jaw dropping" could be UKIP going down!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Thread subtitle still says "Reynard-gate"!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243

    antifrank said:

    UKIP approaching 20% would be jawdropping. The Conservatives slumping to 25% or thereabouts would be jawdropping.

    I'm struggling to imagine anything else remotely likely that would be jawdropping.

    A Tory lead?

    Edit: Not that I'm predicting a Tory lead.
    That is pure fantasy land, TSE ! "Broken, sleazy" tories are on the slide I suspect ;)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322



    This is getting nearer the mark. The next step is to lose the GIs (Gratuitous Insults)--- 'frothers.....' and we might be able to have a reasoned discussion.

    Suppose that UKIP could be persuaded that the economic benefits, as opposed to political benefits, to BOO are significant, rather than huge, which is true. Suppose the euro-enthusiasts accepted that the economic benefits of staying in are marginal rather than great. The gap is far smaller than the rhetoric suggests. Maybe we could have a sensible debate, and keep everything in proportion?

    The discussion would be move on to what is 'good politics' rather than what is 'good economics'. Maybe different views would be given more respect?

    Yes, that would be great.

    The whole debate should be, as you indicate, about balancing advantages vs disadvantages, taking account of where we start from and what is politically possible.
    I agree. Bilateral trade deal versus EU post Dave's renegotiation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    UKIP approaching 20% would be jawdropping. The Conservatives slumping to 25% or thereabouts would be jawdropping.

    I'm struggling to imagine anything else remotely likely that would be jawdropping.

    A Tory lead?

    Edit: Not that I'm predicting a Tory lead.
    That is pure fantasy land, TSE ! "Broken, sleazy" tories are on the slide I suspect ;)
    Yup.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    Mr Boon is the tease. His latest:
    "In age of (right) methodological smoothing, love me some polling action."

    Never knowingly undersold.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Praise be, Martin Boon has replied to one of my tweets.

    I take back all the nasty things I've said about twitter.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Socrates Some people's jaws drop more readily than others. I've got no prior information on how slack-jawed Mr Boon is.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I see that Obama is part of the "Call me Dave", elite:

    Not "the prime minister and I agree" etc., but Dave agrees with me - I said to dave Etc.
    How humiliating for the UK when it's PM is treated like a poodle.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    I've just been retweeted by Martin Boon.

    My life is now complete.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    This is fun

    James Kirkup ‏@jameskirkup
    Obama on UK/EU: See if you can fix what's broken in a v important relationship before you break the relationship.

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    Obama is basically bitch-slapping the Tory Party

    No, he's bitch-slapping the non-Cameron-supporting elements of the Tory party, which is not the same thing. I suspect they won't be very impressed, however.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    My jaw has only ever dropped once in my life: when I read Lord Hutton's conclusion in the Hutton report.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Obama agrees the EU is broken?

    Interesting.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @Tim as I have posted as near ad infinitum as it is possible for someone with only about 30 posts on Vanilla there is no suggestion at all that British retirees in Spain would be expelled if we left the EU. My mum obtained Spanish Residencia in 1990 on the basis of her pension and there is no reason to think that she would lose it if the UK withdrew.

    3,000 up yet? Astonished that there isn't a pb sweep on the time of the post.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Al Beeb ticker: President Obama on UK and EU relationship - 'You probably want to see if you can fix what's broken before you break it off'

    Still waiting for CAP to be sorted out, still waiting for EU accounts to be signed off, still waiting for system of checks and balances re net contributions, still waiting for Euro to stop destroying jobs and growth.
This discussion has been closed.