a) Tarnished (Laws, Alexander,Huhne) b) Too old (Cable) c) Too obviously lightweight (Davey)
Farron will struggle in the job as he is not subtle enough, but will pass the Boris test - namely he will come over as a real person and not a robot pace Clegg and Milliband
However, the Americans have been hinting quite heavily for some time that they think the EU (or Eurozone) should get its act together, so I imagine it is frustration at the lack of progress in addressing the Eurozone crisis.
Well, if the saintly Obama says the EU is broken, then I guess it really is time for a renegotiation. Surely Dan Hodges will be along soon, to tell us this is bad news for Milliband?
It's not a discuss, it's a given. We provide a liberal free trade argument within the EU which, if we were not there, the Germans plus one or two hangers on, would struggle to support. Instead the US fears that there'd be the triumph of "managed trade".
It's not a discuss, it's a given. We provide a liberal free trade argument within the EU which, if we were not there, the Germans plus one or two hangers on, would struggle to support. Instead the US fears that there'd be the triumph of "managed trade".
The US is still thinking it can get a free trade deal with the EU. It doesn't realise how hard the French will work to squish it, and it requires unanimous agreement.
The UK's membership of the EU may be more important to the US than it is to the UK - discuss
Not sure that is right. Once upon a time in the cold war it was very important to the US that the UK help keep the more flaky elements of the European allies in line and warn them of issues arising.
I suspect they just don't care anymore. The US is focussed on the Pacific and rightly so. If the last 200 or 300 years have been focussed on the atlantic this century is where the pacific will see the action.
What is concerning them at the moment is that the EU is not buying enough US goods and services because they are in a depression. This means more US workers out of a job and some balance of payment issues. Can the UK help with that? Not really. They no longer have any strategic interest in europe.
Did Obama say 'fix what is broken' or 'fix what you think is broken?'
Interesting distinction
He said "fix what's broken".
Maybe this could swing to Cameron's advantage, if the POTUS is saying the place is broken, then European heads might feel it's not just British whinging.
Still, I can't ever see the EU agreeing to allow bilateral trade deals, which has been the more broken part of the EU since the very beginning. Virtually every other trade bloc in the world has an open arrangement, it's just the EU that feels it has to control its members. If Cameron gets that, he'll change a lot of minds.
On topic, I think the Lib Dems will want someone in charge who is attractive to the Labour party. Come 2015, they'll be in coalition with Labour, and grooving to Ed Milliband's beat. I guess that rules out the likes of Laws (tainted by expenses, anyway) and Alexander (tainted by Osborne) So, Farron it is, then.
How weird to stumble by and look on tim's 1-eyed tweeting on the Obama/Dave event and compare to these.. TTFN
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn4m No10 are over the moon with the Obama endorsement. Senior source: "Most powerful man on earth supports PM's position on EU".
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers17m My spy in Washington reports PM's entourage 'beaming from ear to ear' after Obama endorsed Dave's renegotiate/referendum strategy on EU
norman smith@BBCNormanS30m Obama offers support for Cameron EU strategy. "You want to see if u can fix what's broken before u break it off"
Michael Savage@michaelsavage31m Cameron looks calm, but he's secretly fighting the urge to kiss Obama
Patrick Wintour@patrickwintour33m Obama comes to Cameron's aid on EU "You probably wanna see if you can fix what's broken in a relationship before you break it off".
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn32m Obama digs Cameron out of massive hole by endorsing his EU renegotiation/referendum plan. A big shift in US policy from full opposition.
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers29m @DAlexanderMP he also appeared to endorse the renegotiate/referendum strategy, don't you think?
Tim Shipman@ShippersUnbound27m I wonder what Cameron offered Obama in exchange for that answer on Europe? RAF raids on Congress? Coke and hookers?
Iain Martin@iainmartin123m Obama endorses Cam policy on EU. But surely public watching news will pay more attention to MP Nigel Torybackbench with his paving motion?
There's always too much positivity though...
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers4m No10 should be careful not to overdo glee at Obama's backing over EU. Risks further inflaming hardcore Eurosceps who don't much like Barack
" Ed Miliband is entering very dangerous territory. If the opinion polls stay as stuck as they are, the weakness of the government will no longer be a source of confidence for the opposition. Instead it will be a catalyst for panic."
Looking forward to having "jaw dropping" defined. Can only mean a big rise for UKIP surely? But will it be cleggasm type non-voters, tories en-masse or the Labour half of the working class vote moving the numbers?
The UK's membership of the EU may be more important to the US than it is to the UK - discuss
Interesting observation. And perhaps to Germany as well.
It was once said by a German, that The UK should take up her rightful place as the 51st of America, and both The UK and The EU would all be happy.
Ahem. 51st to 54th!
Or America should just take her rightful place in the Commonwealth?
"We must never cease to proclaim in fearless tones the great principles of freedom and the rights of man which are the joint inheritance of the English-speaking world and which through Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights, the Habeas Corpus, trial by jury, and the English common law find their most famous expression in the American Declaration of Independence."
-- Winston Churcill.
We don't need monarchical tyranny. Wilkes and liberty!
Barack Obama speaks for the USA. His view on what Britain should do should be understood from that perspective. I'm sure David Cameron was delighted with his intervention, but the USA's interest and Britain's interest are not always identical.
By population the UK would have roughly the same number of college votes as California and Texas combined (the two largest states by population)
It would be a big player..
England would have 73 House seats, Scotland 7, Wales 4 and NI 3. UK as a whole would have sufficient population (compared with the current USA) to justify 20 Senators, though I guess with States it would only get 8 (two per state)!
"Nigel Farage's party has surged from its previous record best with ICM, the 9% it notched up in April, to 18% after its council election victories last week.
Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have been left reeling, with all shedding four points on the month to 34%, 28% and 11% respectively."
The UK's membership of the EU may be more important to the US than it is to the UK - discuss
Interesting observation. And perhaps to Germany as well.
It was once said by a German, that The UK should take up her rightful place as the 51st of America, and both The UK and The EU would all be happy.
Ahem. 51st to 54th!
Or America should just take her rightful place in the Commonwealth?
"We must never cease to proclaim in fearless tones the great principles of freedom and the rights of man which are the joint inheritance of the English-speaking world and which through Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights, the Habeas Corpus, trial by jury, and the English common law find their most famous expression in the American Declaration of Independence."
-- Winston Churcill.
We don't need monarchical tyranny. Wilkes and liberty!
You forgot my "Potomac Compromise of 1776"! And Monarchies can always be constitutional!
By population the UK would have roughly the same number of college votes as California and Texas combined (the two largest states by population)
It would be a big player..
England would have 73 House seats, Scotland 7, Wales 4 and NI 3. UK as a whole would have sufficient population (compared with the current USA) to justify 20 Senators, though I guess with States it would only get 8 (two per state)!
That means in the electoral college for the presidency, England would be worth as much as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire combined.
After weeks of publicity for Ukip's leader, a "Farage factor" is clearly evident in the personal leadership ratings. Last month voters were split down the middle on his performance – 28% saying he was doing a good job; 29% a bad job – giving a net negative score of –1.
Today, the balance of opinion is running 40%-23% in his favour, a net positive of +17. Meanwhile, David Cameron hits a new personal low of –15, and Ed Miliband picks up only one from the even more dismal record of -23 which he set last month, to stand at –22.
I have long been assuming that UKIP's vote would crumble due to First Past the Post. But if they go above 20% we are truly in uncharted territory, and the Tories "it's a wasted vote" argument will be a lot weaker.
For all three established parties to be falling substantially at the same time is unprecedented in the 29-year history of the Guardian/ICM series.
But that's only because one of them, the normal recipient of protest votes, is in government. It's not unprecedented for voters unhappy with both the government and opposition, or simply riding a fad, to land upon some other party for a mid-term protest.
So the rise of UKIP hits Labour as hard as the tories and the Lib Dems edge towards oblivion. Labour + tories = 62%.
I think the next election is going to be interesting. It seems very likely that there will be a greater percentage of the vote up for grabs and uncommitted than we have seen in a long time. All to play for and with a recovering economy some hope for the tories.
These results seem much more in line with the adjusted shares from the locals than the tosh we get from You gov. But Labour supporters can go on believing an 11% lead if it makes them feel better.
For the three "main parties" that has to be the lowest combined polling score with ICM ever? Maybe when the Greens had a surge after Chernobyl would be close? Or the last Euros when UKIP, BNP and Green did well.
The UK's membership of the EU may be more important to the US than it is to the UK - discuss
Interesting observation. And perhaps to Germany as well.
It was once said by a German, that The UK should take up her rightful place as the 51st of America, and both The UK and The EU would all be happy.
Ahem. 51st to 54th!
Or America should just take her rightful place in the Commonwealth?
"We must never cease to proclaim in fearless tones the great principles of freedom and the rights of man which are the joint inheritance of the English-speaking world and which through Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights, the Habeas Corpus, trial by jury, and the English common law find their most famous expression in the American Declaration of Independence."
-- Winston Churcill.
We don't need monarchical tyranny. Wilkes and liberty!
You forgot my "Potomac Compromise of 1776"! And Monarchies can always be constitutional!
The UK's membership of the EU may be more important to the US than it is to the UK - discuss
Interesting observation. And perhaps to Germany as well.
It was once said by a German, that The UK should take up her rightful place as the 51st of America, and both The UK and The EU would all be happy.
Ahem. 51st to 54th!
Or America should just take her rightful place in the Commonwealth?
"We must never cease to proclaim in fearless tones the great principles of freedom and the rights of man which are the joint inheritance of the English-speaking world and which through Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights, the Habeas Corpus, trial by jury, and the English common law find their most famous expression in the American Declaration of Independence."
-- Winston Churcill.
We don't need monarchical tyranny. Wilkes and liberty!
You forgot my "Potomac Compromise of 1776"! And Monarchies can always be constitutional!
What is the Potomac Compromise? Monarchies can indeed be constitutional, but they still go against the notion that all men are created equal.
By population the UK would have roughly the same number of college votes as California and Texas combined (the two largest states by population)
It would be a big player..
you mean we'd get an upgrade from the candidates' wives who usually come across for a couple of fundraisers?
Mitt Romney campaigned in London last year. That's more than a lot of US states got.
More fundraising than really campaigning. Was invited to meet him at a couple of things but decided not to go in the end - wasn't worth the pain of reorganising my diary. But he was the first in donkey's years
"If Clegg does move on my money would now be on Tim Farron
He had a good Reynard-gate and Vote2013 aftermath"
He's been the most credible lib dem on the media for quite some time. Of course that isn't saying too much but Farron is always out there when the other leadership hopefuls just don't seem to be in it.
Bar one.
Those who think Vince isn't interested just because the twit Gove waded in, should perhaps read this.
Vince Cable: I could still lead Liberal Democrats at 70
Vince Cable has no intention of doing an Alex Ferguson - the Business Secretary turned 70 on Thursday but retirement is the last thing on his mind.
Clegg still seems to be ensconced in a bubble insisting he's "still in the saddle" after the lib dems took yet another big hit on their base in the council elections, but that base knows what is happening and it's extremely unlikely they will be fine with the suicidal notion of a toxic Clegg leading the election campaign in 2015.
No doubt the Cameroon spinners are praying Clegg will lead the lib dems into the election considering all those lib dem tory battlegrounds.
Just a bit of alternate history, Socrates! I'm undecided whether it should be full representation at Westminster, or a maybe a Austro-Hungarian style dual-monarchy.
Of course if I were King-Emperor, the British Empire/Commonwealth would be a fully democratic federation open to all English-speaking territories and even all territories liberated/occupied/administered by the UK and US throughout "real" history (yes, I have collated a list of them after several Wiki-browses!)
Comments
a) Tarnished (Laws, Alexander,Huhne)
b) Too old (Cable)
c) Too obviously lightweight (Davey)
Farron will struggle in the job as he is not subtle enough, but will pass the Boris test - namely he will come over as a real person and not a robot pace Clegg and Milliband
Off topic - UKIP ahead of Tories, Lib Dems <5%
However, the Americans have been hinting quite heavily for some time that they think the EU (or Eurozone) should get its act together, so I imagine it is frustration at the lack of progress in addressing the Eurozone crisis.
Did Obama say 'fix what is broken' or 'fix what you think is broken?'
Interesting distinction
I suspect they just don't care anymore. The US is focussed on the Pacific and rightly so. If the last 200 or 300 years have been focussed on the atlantic this century is where the pacific will see the action.
What is concerning them at the moment is that the EU is not buying enough US goods and services because they are in a depression. This means more US workers out of a job and some balance of payment issues. Can the UK help with that? Not really. They no longer have any strategic interest in europe.
Maybe this could swing to Cameron's advantage, if the POTUS is saying the place is broken, then European heads might feel it's not just British whinging.
Still, I can't ever see the EU agreeing to allow bilateral trade deals, which has been the more broken part of the EU since the very beginning. Virtually every other trade bloc in the world has an open arrangement, it's just the EU that feels it has to control its members. If Cameron gets that, he'll change a lot of minds.
So, Farron it is, then.
I say huzzah to Alan Miller
Scottish independence vote should include inmates says human rights chief
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/scottish-independence-blog/2013/may/13/scottish-independence-prisoner-votes-alanmiller
Gordon Brown was wrong to brand pensioner Gillian Duffy a bigot because of her concerns over immigration, Ed Miliband said.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/gordon-browns-bigot-remark-was-wrong-says-ed-miliband-7961559.html
It would be a big player..
Yes, it's One Nation Labour (sic)
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/who-are-labour-for-a-referendum/
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/labours-internal-battle-tale-two-eds-both-called-miliband
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn4m
No10 are over the moon with the Obama endorsement. Senior source: "Most powerful man on earth supports PM's position on EU".
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers17m
My spy in Washington reports PM's entourage 'beaming from ear to ear' after Obama endorsed Dave's renegotiate/referendum strategy on EU
norman smith@BBCNormanS30m
Obama offers support for Cameron EU strategy. "You want to see if u can fix what's broken before u break it off"
Michael Savage@michaelsavage31m
Cameron looks calm, but he's secretly fighting the urge to kiss Obama
Patrick Wintour@patrickwintour33m
Obama comes to Cameron's aid on EU "You probably wanna see if you can fix what's broken in a relationship before you break it off".
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn32m
Obama digs Cameron out of massive hole by endorsing his EU renegotiation/referendum plan. A big shift in US policy from full opposition.
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers29m
@DAlexanderMP he also appeared to endorse the renegotiate/referendum strategy, don't you think?
Tim Shipman@ShippersUnbound27m
I wonder what Cameron offered Obama in exchange for that answer on Europe? RAF raids on Congress? Coke and hookers?
Iain Martin@iainmartin123m
Obama endorses Cam policy on EU. But surely public watching news will pay more attention to MP Nigel Torybackbench with his paving motion?
There's always too much positivity though...
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers4m
No10 should be careful not to overdo glee at Obama's backing over EU. Risks further inflaming hardcore Eurosceps who don't much like Barack
Prince Harry's hand in marriage for a family member?
In other news, Pickfords van seen at Downing Street.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/labours-internal-battle-tale-two-eds-both-called-miliband
" Ed Miliband is entering very dangerous territory. If the opinion polls stay as stuck as they are, the weakness of the government will no longer be a source of confidence for the opposition. Instead it will be a catalyst for panic."
Gordon Brown 2010 polled 8,6 M votes
Mr Howard 2005 polled 8.8M votes
Brownite = disaster.
US president supports strategy of seeking reform of European Union before staging referendum on membership
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/barack-obama-david-cameron-uk
-- Winston Churcill.
We don't need monarchical tyranny. Wilkes and liberty!
UK as a whole would have sufficient population (compared with the current USA) to justify 20 Senators, though I guess with States it would only get 8 (two per state)!
ICM
Labour 34 -4
Tories 28 - 4
LD 11 - 4
UKIP 18 + 9
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/farage-factor-ukip-support-record
Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have been left reeling, with all shedding four points on the month to 34%, 28% and 11% respectively."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/farage-factor-ukip-support-record
The forces of hell are being untethered ....
CON+ UKIP = 46 (+5)
All from the blues eh ?
And all those voices telling us that UKIP would have no effect on Labour.
The Left is being slowly squeezed...
Today, the balance of opinion is running 40%-23% in his favour, a net positive of +17. Meanwhile, David Cameron hits a new personal low of –15, and Ed Miliband picks up only one from the even more dismal record of -23 which he set last month, to stand at –22.
ICM/The Sunil:
Tories/UKIP 46 (+5)
Euroholics 45 (-8)
Police enquiries are still continuing about the fate of 112, Highgate in Kendal, once the Conservative HQ in Westmorland and Lonsdale.
Tim Farron offered me a job. I didn't accept.
The harsh fact is that Con Lab, Lib are divided parties and are being punished by the voters...
For all three established parties to be falling substantially at the same time is unprecedented in the 29-year history of the Guardian/ICM series.
But that's only because one of them, the normal recipient of protest votes, is in government. It's not unprecedented for voters unhappy with both the government and opposition, or simply riding a fad, to land upon some other party for a mid-term protest.
I think the next election is going to be interesting. It seems very likely that there will be a greater percentage of the vote up for grabs and uncommitted than we have seen in a long time. All to play for and with a recovering economy some hope for the tories.
These results seem much more in line with the adjusted shares from the locals than the tosh we get from You gov. But Labour supporters can go on believing an 11% lead if it makes them feel better.
UKIP is+9
Where have the other 3 gone? For "others" that would seem a pretty big move as well.
He had a good Reynard-gate and Vote2013 aftermath"
He's been the most credible lib dem on the media for quite some time. Of course that isn't saying too much but Farron is always out there when the other leadership hopefuls just don't seem to be in it.
Bar one.
Those who think Vince isn't interested just because the twit Gove waded in, should perhaps read this. Clegg still seems to be ensconced in a bubble insisting he's "still in the saddle" after the lib dems took yet another big hit on their base in the council elections, but that base knows what is happening and it's extremely unlikely they will be fine with the suicidal notion of a toxic Clegg leading the election campaign in 2015.
No doubt the Cameroon spinners are praying Clegg will lead the lib dems into the election considering all those lib dem tory battlegrounds.
I'm undecided whether it should be full representation at Westminster, or a maybe a Austro-Hungarian style dual-monarchy.
Of course if I were King-Emperor, the British Empire/Commonwealth would be a fully democratic federation open to all English-speaking territories and even all territories liberated/occupied/administered by the UK and US throughout "real" history (yes, I have collated a list of them after several Wiki-browses!)
sincerely,
His Britanno-American Majesty, Emperor Sunil I.