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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Clegg does move on my money would now be on Tim Farron

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Clegg does move on my money would now be on Tim Farron

Michael Gove’s claims about plots to overthrow Clegg haven’t impacted on the betting.Tim Farron still 5/2 favourite twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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Comments

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Ahem, Rennard, Mike. Reynard is the legendary French fox (unless it was intentional, in which case I will edit this post and deny everything).
  • auth0rauth0r Posts: 4
    The leadership of the LDs is only of marginally more significance than leadership of the Monster Raving Loonies. Clegg will be a postscript in political history like the legendary Wing Commander Bill Boakes
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited May 2013
    I am not sure how much he appeals to the more right of centre Lib Dems (those that are essentially Europhile Tories) but I agree he makes a good LD leadership candidate for the post election Lib Lab pact.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,171
    The real story thats developing is who is going to take over from David Cameron.

    His leadership is looking increasingly fragile to me.
  • SimSim Posts: 2
    He does annoy a lot of ordinary members via an almost continuous trickle of minor gaffs and illiberal statements though. If she could be persuaded to stand my money would be on Jo Swinson. She is very popular in the party, has a good media style but has had a low enough profile not to be overly tarred by the coalition. That is all, of course, if she could be persuaded to stand.
  • auth0rauth0r Posts: 4
    What is it about Lib Dems? Handcock, Huhne, Jeremy Thorpe, Michael Brown, Kennedy, Laws.

    Bring back Lembit, all is forgiven
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    Swinson at 25s?

    Young, comes across well on tv, wants to get young people engaged in politics.

    A WOMAN!

    No expert on LDs (or any politics really) but I thought Farron was terrible on tv the night Rennard gate broke, absolutely awful.

    Cables too old, Davey reminds me of Morrissey, Lamb just made that record, I dont think people would take him seriously, Laws is in disgrace over expenses (and are the public ready for a a gay leader yet?), Alexander and Browne come across as Tories.

    Swinson. Nailed on.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited May 2013
    Sim said:

    He does annoy a lot of ordinary members via an almost continuous trickle of minor gaffs and illiberal statements though. If she could be persuaded to stand my money would be on Jo Swinson. She is very popular in the party, has a good media style but has had a low enough profile not to be overly tarred by the coalition. That is all, of course, if she could be persuaded to stand.

    I think it's just too early for her, the Lib Dem leader after next is more her possibility. It's possible but it'd have to be a 1975 Conservative style thing where front runners take themselves out for one reason or another.

    (Provided she keeps her seat of course)
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    sam said:

    Swinson at 25s?

    Young, comes across well on tv, wants to get young people engaged in politics.

    A WOMAN!

    No expert on LDs (or any politics really) but I thought Farron was terrible on tv the night Rennard gate broke, absolutely awful.

    Cables too old, Davey reminds me of Morrissey, Lamb just made that record, I dont think people would take him seriously, Laws is in disgrace over expenses (and are the public ready for a a gay leader yet?), Alexander and Browne come across as Tories.

    Swinson. Nailed on.


    Unlikely to keep her seat.

    And it was Norman Baker the conspiracy theorist who made the record, not Norman Lamb the health minister.
    Thats a snag

    Although Farage is a leader without a seat.... wouldnt work for the LDs though

    Oh there you go! Deliberate mistake of the day weighs in! Ill do a 360 billion degree turn on that! Sorry for the mistake, confusing my Norms! Thought he was a bit short in the betting for a bit of a joker.



  • SimSim Posts: 2
    corporeal said:

    I think it's just too early for her, the Lib Dem leader after next is more her possibility. It's possible but it'd have to be a 1975 Conservative style thing where front runners take themselves out for one reason or another.

    (Provided she keeps her seat of course)

    I have to say that from the look of things they are more or less ruling themselves out one by one, if not in the sense you mean!

    It's a tiny little thing, but today on Woman's hour they were discussing government cuts and women (again), the presenter complained that the government had provided them with no statement, but before the discussion had ended Jo Swinson sent one in as minister for women and equalities. No idea what had happened, but it rather looked like she, or someone in her team, had done some very quick work one way or another. I'm not sure if she is all that unready.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    FPT -

    @tim A Tory majority puts these nutters in power

    A labour majority will let the labour nutters into power who opened our borders to unprecedented immigration or bankrupted the country or went to war on a lie.
  • auth0rauth0r Posts: 4
    Correction to previous post: Lieutenant Commander Bill Boakes
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 658
    NO COMMENTS EITHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY REFERENCING PHONE HACKING
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    DPJHodges Don't get this Ed Balls stuff. Economy stays in a mess, he's proved right. Economy recovers, doesn't matter who shadow chancellor is.

    Loving how dan the man gets the left worked up.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    I suppose that, when you have eliminated the impossible, whoever remains, however improbable, must be the favourite.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    The problem with Farron is that he sometimes comes across as a rather chippy little man and I am far from certain he will appeal greatly to the voters at large (as opposed to certain Lib Dem activists).

    Swinson would be a better choice but she needs the wholly unlikely scenario of the coalition to end with Clegg and Cameron resigning and a Con minority government being in place up to 2015 where she could build up her profile as an independent Lib Dem leader. She might just then save her seat.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    I will change EU 'status quo' then call referendum in 2017, insists David Cameron

    David Cameron says the whole Conservative party agree they should focus on an EU referendum, but reiterates that it will not take place until after the next general election

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10053911/I-will-change-EU-status-quo-then-call-referendum-in-2017-insists-David-Cameron.html
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Sim said:

    corporeal said:

    I think it's just too early for her, the Lib Dem leader after next is more her possibility. It's possible but it'd have to be a 1975 Conservative style thing where front runners take themselves out for one reason or another.

    (Provided she keeps her seat of course)

    I have to say that from the look of things they are more or less ruling themselves out one by one, if not in the sense you mean!

    It's a tiny little thing, but today on Woman's hour they were discussing government cuts and women (again), the presenter complained that the government had provided them with no statement, but before the discussion had ended Jo Swinson sent one in as minister for women and equalities. No idea what had happened, but it rather looked like she, or someone in her team, had done some very quick work one way or another. I'm not sure if she is all that unready.
    I remember seeing her at conference last year, two impressions I got were that she was being marked out for higher things, but also needed some development before being ready for anything right at the top level. Obviously depends when Clegg goes, and still two years until the election. But I don't think she'd win without a few front runners falling on the fences.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    I was just getting my hair cut in the local barbers. The man in the chair next to me was of Pakistani descent and was going on a rant about how the Taliban were the good guys, that "Osama" wasn't really dead and that he had every right to be in Britain after what "they" had done to "his country". He later mentioned he was born in the UK. No one in the shop dared saying anything to him. I was tempted, but considering I frequently go to the area and there are plenty of brainwashed women wearing burkhas round there, there are clearly lots of hardcore Muslims around and I didn't want to risk getting beating up by some Muslim gang at some point in the future.

    And yet people think the rise of UKIP is because David Cameron mentions immigration now and then. The sooner we introduce a values test to immigrants of all types the better, but none of handwringing elites in the three main parties has the balls to do it, lest they be condemned by Polly Toynbee. It's pathetic and we need a change.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Odd use of smart really, "to get what it wants done" seems to speak more to other qualities than smart.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Socrates said:

    I was just getting my hair cut in the local barbers. The man in the chair next to me was of Pakistani descent and was going on a rant about how the Taliban were the good guys, that "Osama" wasn't really dead and that he had every right to be in Britain after what "they" had done to "his country". He later mentioned he was born in the UK. No one in the shop dared saying anything to him. I was tempted, but considering I frequently go to the area and there are plenty of brainwashed women wearing burkhas round there, there are clearly lots of hardcore Muslims around and I didn't want to risk getting beating up by some Muslim gang at some point in the future.

    And yet people think the rise of UKIP is because David Cameron mentions immigration now and then. L The sooner we introduce a values test to immigrants of all types the better, but none of handwringing elites in the three main parties has the balls to do it, lest they be condemned by Polly Toynbee. It's pathetic and we need a change.

    If he was born in Britain then what's the relevance of immigrant testing?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,094

    I've been converted to these Mr Men characters ...

    Mr Happy = Nigel Farage
    Mr Lazy = David Cameron
    Mr Jelly = Ed Milliband
    Mr Tickle = Lord Rennard
    Mr Quiet = IDS
    Mr Bump = Tim Farron
    Mr Silly = George Osborne
    Little Miss Bossy = Harriet Harman
    Mr Grumpy = tim

    Modern education, don't you just love it. Where do I collect my PPE degree?
  • Nice but dim? What the electorate thinks of the Lib Dems

    73% think Lib Dems are dim
    10% think they are smart

    That looks in line with the polling.... (ducks)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    corporeal said:

    Socrates said:

    I was just getting my hair cut in the local barbers. The man in the chair next to me was of Pakistani descent and was going on a rant about how the Taliban were the good guys, that "Osama" wasn't really dead and that he had every right to be in Britain after what "they" had done to "his country". He later mentioned he was born in the UK. No one in the shop dared saying anything to him. I was tempted, but considering I frequently go to the area and there are plenty of brainwashed women wearing burkhas round there, there are clearly lots of hardcore Muslims around and I didn't want to risk getting beating up by some Muslim gang at some point in the future.

    And yet people think the rise of UKIP is because David Cameron mentions immigration now and then. L The sooner we introduce a values test to immigrants of all types the better, but none of handwringing elites in the three main parties has the balls to do it, lest they be condemned by Polly Toynbee. It's pathetic and we need a change.

    If he was born in Britain then what's the relevance of immigrant testing?
    It would stop bringing in more like him. I can't remember the exact number, but something like 80% of Pakistanis think badly of Britain. Except for the small minority of Westernised liberals, the rest we shouldn't let it.
  • CD13 said:


    I've been converted to these Mr Men characters ...

    You missed out Mr Slimy Greaseball aka Lord Oakshyte
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cable odds barmy as they are time limiting - by 2015 Farron is still the favourite but Vince is 72 - too old after Ming.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Socrates...

    As this person is a UK citizen and was born (and presumably educated) here, I don;t see how voting UKIP changes things at all.

    Surely in this case the horse has bolted before you can even think about shutting the stable door...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    CD13 said:


    I've been converted to these Mr Men characters ...

    Mr Happy = Nigel Farage
    Mr Lazy = David Cameron
    Mr Jelly = Ed Milliband
    Mr Tickle = Lord Rennard
    Mr Quiet = IDS
    Mr Bump = Tim Farron
    Mr Silly = George Osborne
    Little Miss Bossy = Harriet Harman
    Mr Grumpy = tim

    Modern education, don't you just love it. Where do I collect my PPE degree?

    *shrugs* Go google revision memory techniques. A shedload of them involve creating little stories to act as memory triggers. The Mr Men thing is just a variation on that.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,662
    Former Gold medalist James Cracknell wants to be a Tory MEP for South West.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    taffys said:

    Socrates...

    As this person is a UK citizen and was born (and presumably educated) here, I don;t see how voting UKIP changes things at all.

    Surely in this case the horse has bolted before you can even think about shutting the stable door...

    I've now had this foolish riposte from two posters. It's like finding someone left the door open and finding some mosquitos have got in, and thinking "oh well, no point closing the door now".
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Combining themes, it's rather looking as though Nick Clegg is Mr Limpet. I can't see any realistic prospect of him leaving before the GE (I never could), so everything depends on how well the LibDems do in 2015. If they do very badly, then, yes, I expect Nick Clegg would move on. But if they do OKish, then it's surely more likely that he'd stay, and, if they have the balance of power, highly likely that he'd stay. In fact, Deputy PM Nick, working with either Ed or Dave, seems very much on the cards if Jack W's emanations are to be believed - a well-hung parliament with the LibDems holding on to over 40 seats and holding the balance of power. Quite apart from anything else, such an outcome would leave no time for a change of leader if the LibDems wanted to be in government in the next term. And, whatever foolish things senior Labour politicians may have said a few months ago, they'd clearly work with Clegg if they had to.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Nice but dim? What the electorate thinks of the Lib Dems

    73% think Lib Dems are dim
    10% think they are smart

    That looks in line with the polling.... (ducks)
    "It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a small party in possession of a serial liar must be in want of a new leader"

    Apart from David Laws, they all seem to be a lot of plonkers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Former Gold medalist James Cracknell wants to be a Tory MEP for South West.

    Unlike most Tories, at least he knows all about teams pulling in the same direction.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    sam said:

    and are the public ready for a a gay leader yet?

    I would have thought that being gay wouldnt be in Laws' top three problems to overcome in going for the Lib Dem leadership.

    If Swinson kept her seat then the Lib Dem leadership wouldnt be enough of a reward for her feat. They'd have to endow a Nobel prize for political campaigning and give it to her.

    If it came down to Farron V Davey then I can see the members over-ruling the parliamentary party and giving it to Farron.

    Webb should stand on a platform of competent decency though.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Combining themes, it's rather looking as though Nick Clegg is Mr Limpet. I can't see any realistic prospect of him leaving before the GE (I never could), so everything depends on how well the LibDems do in 2015. If they do very badly, then, yes, I expect Nick Clegg would move on. But if they do OKish, then it's surely more likely that he'd stay, and, if they have the balance of power, highly likely that he'd stay. In fact, Deputy PM Nick, working with either Ed or Dave, seems very much on the cards if Jack W's emanations are to be believed - a well-hung parliament with the LibDems holding on to over 40 seats and holding the balance of power. Quite apart from anything else, such an outcome would leave no time for a change of leader if the LibDems wanted to be in government in the next term. And, whatever foolish things senior Labour politicians may have said a few months ago, they'd clearly work with Clegg if they had to.

    Which again rules out Cable - so 3/1 is betting on Clegg being hit by a bus.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    " 711,151 UK citizens were living in other EU countries in 2011, says Eurostat."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20448450

    I thought tim said it was millions? Let's remember this next time he goes on and on about someone else making a mistake with data...
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,094
    Corporeal,

    "Go google revision memory techniques. A shedload of them involve creating little stories to act as memory triggers. The Mr Men thing is just a variation on that."

    I believe you, but bringing in Animal Farm shows the teacher has an inflated view of his own abilities (Mr Not as clever as he thinks he is?).
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Former Gold medalist James Cracknell wants to be a Tory MEP for South West.

    They arent going to gain a seat there though, are any of the sitting MEPs in that region retiring?

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    taffys said:

    Socrates...

    As this person is a UK citizen and was born (and presumably educated) here, I don;t see how voting UKIP changes things at all.

    Surely in this case the horse has bolted before you can even think about shutting the stable door...

    You don't get the point. This lump of Pakistani decent, still thinks hes a Pakistani and not an an Englishman or even a UK citizen. That's the result of so called multiculturalism

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    re Premiership relegation.

    Wigan need to win both games left - scope for a virtual arb ?

    Wigan 8.4/1 to win vs Arsenal
    Evens to win vs Villa

    Villa are 40/1 to be relegated (1 game left), Sunderland 24/1 (would need to lose vs Spurs and Wigan to win both).

    Are the individual odds right or is there a disconnect ?



  • Would Dave make most, if not all, of his EU grief go away if he simply said what powers he wants to get back and if that's not negotiable then he'd support the OUT choice? A bit of openness - 'here's what we want back, if you don't agree then we're off'. Everybody could understand and respect that - even those in Brussels who hate us.

    Or maybe he fears the UK leaving the EUmonster more than he fears an electoral hammering and the hatred of his own party? I have to confess I am at a total loss to understand what Dave's objectives and motivators here are.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,503
    The curse of the change of thread....

    FPT
    stodge said:

    sam said:

    Swinson at 25s?

    No expert on LDs (or any politics really) but I thought Farron was terrible on tv the night Rennard gate broke, absolutely awful.

    Cables too old, Davey reminds me of Morrissey, Lamb just made that record, I dont think people would take him seriously, Laws is in disgrace over expenses (and are the public ready for a a gay leader yet?), Alexander and Browne come across as Tories.

    Swinson. Nailed on.

    Well, my friend, as you've confessed to your ignorance unlike some on here who seem to believe they are knowledgeable on everything given their willingness to pontificate on everything. I'll give you my honest assessment as 1/40,000 of the electorate.

    Jo Swinson will do well to keep her seat. The key question will be how many Lib Dem MPs emerge from the May 2015 election. Some on here might contend one is one too many - the Party will be fighting a defensive election in, at most, 75 seats (those we currently hold and a few others). That may not seem many but in truth I expect the Conservatives will only probably be fighting 200 seriously (the rest are safe and the others out of reach) while Labour will probably fight 100-150 seats (in my own constituency, East Ham, Labour polled 70% in 2010, there's not much point building up huge majorities in a system where bums on benches count, not votes). UKIP will probably only concentrate on 10-20 seats.

    Anyway, IF Rallings & Thrasher are right and the party comes out with 50 seats, I suspect that will be a viewed as a triumph and it's possible Nick Clegg may carry on as leader. Realistically, I expect 35-45 seats at which point Clegg will depart and there might be three or four runners in the leadership race. Below 30 and I suspect Farron would probably get it without much of a fight. Below 15 (and assuming Farron is one of the casualties) and all bets are off.

    Force me to have a fiver and I would back Farron to beat Davey. If you're looking at contenders at bigger prices, I'd see how the party fares in Cornwall (fair County Council results) and see if either Dan Rogerson or Stephen Gilbert survive.
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    Farron would be the end of the coalition.

    I can't think of anybody in the current crop of LDs who is more loathed by the Tories.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,352
    Patrick said:

    Would Dave make most, if not all, of his EU grief go away if he simply said what powers he wants to get back and if that's not negotiable then he'd support the OUT choice? A bit of openness - 'here's what we want back, if you don't agree then we're off'. Everybody could understand and respect that - even those in Brussels who hate us.

    Or maybe he fears the UK leaving the EUmonster more than he fears an electoral hammering and the hatred of his own party? I have to confess I am at a total loss to understand what Dave's objectives and motivators here are.

    I believe you are completely correct on this. For what ever reasons - and I don't understand them either - Cameron would rather lose the election than see the UK out of the EU. To have already ruled out leaving the EU under any circumstances makes his negotiating stance as far as the repatriation of powers is concerned a complete nonsense.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Rog Tallbloke ‏@RogTallbloke
    @Michael_Heaver @ukipwebmaster Watch Bennet make a fool of herself on this exclusive footage: http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/03/25/exclusive-footage-green-party-leader-natalie-bennett-on-uk-energy-bill/ … "green energy is free"
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:
    Typically a plural refers to two or more. Not "up to 1.6".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Farron would be the end of the coalition.

    I can't think of anybody in the current crop of LDs who is more loathed by the Tories.

    Did they ever solve the mystery of the fire at the Kendal Conservative HQ ?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,156
    Eric Pickles: Mr Creosote.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Farron would be a good choice. Comes across as (relatively) human.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    Our research suggests that around 5.5 million British nationals live overseas permanently (equivalent to 9.2 per cent of the UK’s population). In
    addition, an estimated 500,000 British people live abroad for part of the
    year, mainly through second-home ownership. This means that nearly one
    in ten British nationals lives part or all of the year abroad. It also means that
    there are more Britons living abroad than there are foreigners living in the
    UK.


    http://www.ippr.org/images/media/files/publication/2011/05/BA_exec_summ_1548.pdf

    That refers to the whole world - note how the USA, Canada and Australia are in the top five. You said millions living in the EU.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Mike K.

    If you want to reduce the number of immigrants from Pakistan today onwards to zero (even including marriages and would be students), that is one thing (though I'm not sure its UKIP policy).

    If you want to somehow put pressure on people of Pakistani descent who are already UK citizens and living here, that is surely something quite different.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There's an interesting definitional question.

    For example, I have a flat in Budapest and a house in rural Hungary. I'm out there about once every four to six weeks, where I stay for a long weekend, usually with one longer holiday stay in the summer of a couple of weeks. I work full time in London though.

    Could I be said to be "living abroad for part of the year"? It's not how I think of it: not yet anyway.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,775
    MikeK said:

    Rog Tallbloke ‏@RogTallbloke
    @Michael_Heaver @ukipwebmaster Watch Bennet make a fool of herself on this exclusive footage: http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/03/25/exclusive-footage-green-party-leader-natalie-bennett-on-uk-energy-bill/ … "green energy is free"

    That is classic:

    "We know what the sun is going to cost us. We know what the wind is going to cost us. We know what the tide is going to cost us. Which is exactly nothing."

    Aside from the vast cost (*) of implementing the technology to harness them in large enough quantities.

    Have the Green Party reversed their opposition to the Severn Barrage?
    http://greenparty.org.uk/news/26-01-09-barrage.html

    (*) Which may or may not be lesser or greater than those of more traditional forms of generation. However it will not be so 'less' as being nothing.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,352
    tim said:
    Funny link for you to use Tim. According to the official numbers used in that piece Socrates is absolutely right - around 750,000 Brits living in the EU compared to 1.8 million EU citizens living in the UK.

    The real funny bit of that link is the quote:

    "But the party’s claim about the number of Brits abroad is based on jacked up – and somewhat dusty – data from its friends at the IPPR."

    So I assume you are using the jacked up Friends of Labour IPPR numbers to support your argument rather than the official numbers which show just how wrong you really are.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    Patrick said:

    Would Dave make most, if not all, of his EU grief go away if he simply said what powers he wants to get back and if that's not negotiable then he'd support the OUT choice? A bit of openness - 'here's what we want back, if you don't agree then we're off'. Everybody could understand and respect that - even those in Brussels who hate us.

    No, of course not. What would happen is:

    1) Whatever he said, the frothers would shriek in horror that it wasn't enough, sell-out, Europhile traitor etc etc

    2) Whatever he said, the EU nomenklatura and politicians would say 'Quel horreur! You must be kidding, not a snowflake's chance in Hölle, etc etc

    3) If it came to negotiations, whatever was on his list would be regarded as the opening position, not the final/redline one.

    In any case, circumstances change, and we're talking about a negotiation several years ahead and at a time when the EU/Eurozone is itself likely substantially to evolve, in ways which might profoundly affect what we would want or could get. In the final analysis, you have to look at the whole picture - you can't reduce a negotiation to a list of bullet-points.
  • antifrank said:

    There's an interesting definitional question.

    For example, I have a flat in Budapest and a house in rural Hungary. I'm out there about once every four to six weeks, where I stay for a long weekend, usually with one longer holiday stay in the summer of a couple of weeks. I work full time in London though.

    Could I be said to be "living abroad for part of the year"? It's not how I think of it: not yet anyway.

    antifrank,
    I think you're actually living in a different world, mate.
    I'm only jealous!



  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    taffys said:

    Mike K.

    If you want to reduce the number of immigrants from Pakistan today onwards to zero (even including marriages and would be students), that is one thing (though I'm not sure its UKIP policy).

    If you want to somehow put pressure on people of Pakistani descent who are already UK citizens and living here, that is surely something quite different.

    What on earth are you blithering on about? I have nothing against people of Pakistani decent or any other decent if that matters, as long as they don't attack the country that they were born in, and treat it as an enemy, present or future.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,117
    F1: Red Bull whining about tyres again:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22509847

    I do think Spain was a bit much, but they're really putting me off changing the tyres with this unseemly whining. Maybe Pirelli's official response to the complaint about F1 not being about racing should be "Multi-21".
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    @tim

    May I suggest a good response to go with? How about this one:
    tim said:

    @Socrates

    Yes, thanks for the correction. I made a mistake and overstated the numbers. Still, my underlying point remains. While it's not quite "millions" of Britons living in other EU countries, it's still a very large number, and this will pose a conundrum that UKIP will have to deal with at some point.

    However, I've learnt a valuable lesson that it's easy to make a mistake with numbers when posting on an informal blog. I've been a bit rash in the past in demonising people I've corrected and I promise to be more conciliatory in future. Sorry!

    Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Richard....

    Much as I admire your posts, in the current climate with UKIP on the rampage, that response to Patrick sounds impossibly craven.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,503
    TGOHF said:

    Farron would be the end of the coalition.

    I can't think of anybody in the current crop of LDs who is more loathed by the Tories.

    Did they ever solve the mystery of the fire at the Kendal Conservative HQ ?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-14436988

    Note "Cumbria Police said it was thought the fire started as a result of a burglary and was noy politically motivated!

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,143
    edited May 2013
    TGOHF said:

    re Premiership relegation.

    Wigan need to win both games left - scope for a virtual arb ?

    Wigan 8.4/1 to win vs Arsenal
    Evens to win vs Villa

    Villa are 40/1 to be relegated (1 game left), Sunderland 24/1 (would need to lose vs Spurs and Wigan to win both).

    Are the individual odds right or is there a disconnect ?



    Sunderland look too short, VIlla too long to my eyes. Edit: Villa can also stop up if Sunderland lose even if they lose... Think the odds are about right.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    stodge said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farron would be the end of the coalition.

    I can't think of anybody in the current crop of LDs who is more loathed by the Tories.

    Did they ever solve the mystery of the fire at the Kendal Conservative HQ ?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-14436988

    Note "Cumbria Police said it was thought the fire started as a result of a burglary and was noy politically motivated!

    That's a no then....

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Richard - this Eurokerfuffle is due to Dave being re-active not proactive.

    rEd has the same issue - lions led by lambs.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    re Premiership relegation.

    Wigan need to win both games left - scope for a virtual arb ?

    Wigan 8.4/1 to win vs Arsenal
    Evens to win vs Villa

    Villa are 40/1 to be relegated (1 game left), Sunderland 24/1 (would need to lose vs Spurs and Wigan to win both).

    Are the individual odds right or is there a disconnect ?



    Sunderland look too short, VIlla too long to my eyes. Edit: Villa can also stop up if Sunderland lose even if they lose... Think the odds are about right.
    Double on Wigan to win both games pays 17/1.

    If they do then it's either a 40/1 or a 24/1 shot.

    Could be about right- I guess the odds are going to change after the Wigan game on Tues.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    Socrates said:

    @tim

    May I suggest a good response to go with? How about this one:

    tim said:

    @Socrates

    Yes, thanks for the correction. I made a mistake and overstated the numbers. Still, my underlying point remains. While it's not quite "millions" of Britons living in other EU countries, it's still a very large number, and this will pose a conundrum that UKIP will have to deal with at some point.

    However, I've learnt a valuable lesson that it's easy to make a mistake with numbers when posting on an informal blog. I've been a bit rash in the past in demonising people I've corrected and I promise to be more conciliatory in future. Sorry!

    Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.
    Tim and certain other lefties are part of the "No apology necessary" club... and if you pull them on it your posts go down the memory hole

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @taffys - Yes, realism is not in fashion. That doesn't alter the facts.

    The truth of the matter is that Cameron's position is incredibly difficult. He doesn't have a majority. Blair and Brown threw away most of the bargaining chips, quite gratuitously, for nothing in return. Because of the ease with which the Stay In side could deploy fear and doubt, winning an Out referendum would be near-impossible, even if he wanted us to leave the EU, and losing one so we stay in under the current terms would throw away our only opportunity in a generation to improve things. The frothers frothing just makes it worse; they won't listen to reason, argue the most absurd nonsenses, and seem determined to cut off their noses to spite our faces by ushering PM Miliband into No 10.

    There are no easy answers to getting us out of the mess which Blair and Brown left.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,352
    Socrates said:



    Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.

    Judging by his last response to me, clearly that is never going to happen. He would much rather use his dodgy, make them up on the back of a postcard, figures to justify his outlandish claims than accept the official numbers.

    Funny really because as I remember it Tim is always so ready to use official figures when he thinks they support his case but as soon as they don't he runs off to find some spurious alternative.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,663
    Patrick said:

    Would Dave make most, if not all, of his EU grief go away if he simply said what powers he wants to get back and if that's not negotiable then he'd support the OUT choice? A bit of openness - 'here's what we want back, if you don't agree then we're off'. Everybody could understand and respect that - even those in Brussels who hate us.

    Or maybe he fears the UK leaving the EUmonster more than he fears an electoral hammering and the hatred of his own party? I have to confess I am at a total loss to understand what Dave's objectives and motivators here are.

    I think that the repatriation of powers is a bit of a red herring, frankly. Fundamentally, Britain has a different view of what the EU should be to most of Continental Europe. Repatriating a few powers is an attempt to reconcile fundamentally different visions. Either we get to reshape Europe in a way which works for all or we get out. Cameron is not prepared to say - or even - think this.

    A halfway house with a few opt-outs here and there, given away by different goverments from time to time, but with us mainly grumbling and others irritated by or ignoring us is not tenable, not in the long-term.

    Personally, I think we should seek to come up with a better vision for Europe than the one currently on offer but I do not see any sign - in any of the main parties (and not in UKIP either) - of any intelligent thinking on this topic. It's all either short-term tactics / moaning about individual issues or pious blathering about "influence".

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,352
    tim said:

    @RichardTyndall

    The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain.

    LOL. When one link doesn't work because someone actually bothered to go and read it, good old Tim just forgets about links and pops up with some more numbers from somewhere else.

    From your own link which you posted in support of your very dodgy claims Tim

    "So, to put it simply, there are more European immigrants arriving here than Brits leaving for Europe. What the PM told Mrs Duffy was not only out by several hundreds of thousands, but official statistics appear not to back up his claim."

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,895
    It seems to me we get the best of the EU migration bargain. They get our pensioners, we get their young and ambitious. Nice one!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    realism is not in fashion. That doesn't alter the facts.

    One could argue that UKIP is only strengthening the EU's hand. It can play for time and watch the British right destroy itself, only to usher in a much more amenable leader.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    Cyclefree said:

    Either we get to reshape Europe in a way which works for all or we get out. Cameron is not prepared to say - or even - think this.

    He went a long way towards saying that in his big EU speech, which did indeed concentrate on how the EU should be reshaped.

    The problem, though, is that if we can't persuade our EU friends to reshape it, and leave, it will still be there, still unreformed, and we will still be largely subject to its influence or worse.

    Cameron's optimistic view is that, over a period of three to four years, and against the background of the Eurozone crisis and the structural reforms which most observers agree are necessary to address that, it can be reshaped.

    He may be over-optimistic in this (certainly it won't be easy). But it would seem very silly not to even try.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,243
    Forget all this Europe rubbish: it turns out T-Rex is a closer relation to sparrows than to Stagasaurus

    http://www.xkcd.com/1211/
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    Socrates said:



    Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.

    Judging by his last response to me, clearly that is never going to happen. He would much rather use his dodgy, make them up on the back of a postcard, figures to justify his outlandish claims than accept the official numbers.

    Funny really because as I remember it Tim is always so ready to use official figures when he thinks they support his case but as soon as they don't he runs off to find some spurious alternative.

    Here's the spurious alternative made up figures.

    We have one of the largest British consular networks in the world with consulates in Alicante, Barcelona, Bilbao, Ibiza, Las Palmas, Málaga, Palma de Mallorca and Tenerife. These offices deal with a wide range of issues in a country that receives around 13 million British visitors a year and where an estimated 800,000 Britons live for all or part of the year. Please check below for our opening hours.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/world/organisations/british-embassy-madrid
    tim - You're quoting residents, I think the others are referring to economic migrants wot steal jobs and/or sponge of the state. The numbers will be wildly different given the volume of Brits who retire to spain/greece/tuscany/etc. Not many Europeans choose to retire in Scarborough.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,895
    Legislation is currently going through Parliament which would devolve British sovereignty to a supra-national European body created to hear disputes solely within the territory of the EU - a unitary patent court. Due to a technicality (enhanced co-operation) it is not covered by the EU referendum lock as the deal to create it was not agreed within the EU institutional framework, but by inter-governmental treaty. The government has dodged a very big bullet!

    http://www.iam-magazine.com/Blog/Detail.aspx?g=4a4b6b8e-7474-413b-8a0a-f98ef98ee991
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    sam said:

    Socrates said:

    @tim

    May I suggest a good response to go with? How about this one:

    tim said:

    @Socrates

    Yes, thanks for the correction. I made a mistake and overstated the numbers. Still, my underlying point remains. While it's not quite "millions" of Britons living in other EU countries, it's still a very large number, and this will pose a conundrum that UKIP will have to deal with at some point.

    However, I've learnt a valuable lesson that it's easy to make a mistake with numbers when posting on an informal blog. I've been a bit rash in the past in demonising people I've corrected and I promise to be more conciliatory in future. Sorry!

    Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.
    Tim and certain other lefties are part of the "No apology necessary" club... and if you pull them on it your posts go down the memory hole


    Socrates claims fewer than 800,000 Brits living in the whole of the EU.

    The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain. Residency is difficult to measure, but estimates vary from 250,000 to 400,000.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/expat-money/10046400/Expats-feeling-the-pain-in-Spain-should-think-twice-before-fleeing.html
    The article you quote also says residency of Brits in Spain could be as low as 250,000

    Stats are so easily manipulated in discussions like this they are barely worth quoting

    You and Southam Observer dont allow stats of White Brits leaving areas of mass immigration as evidence that they dont like mass immigration

    I believe immigration issue is measurable by speaking to people whose areas have been changed irrevocably by it, by the success/lack of it of anti mass immigration parties in places recently affected.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,117
    Mr. 1000, I'd heard there's a serious argument to consider birds avian dinosaurs due to the close genetic links between the two groups.

    A major difference, though, would be the endotherm/ectotherm divide (although perhaps the likes of archaeoptryx and its descendents might have become warm-blooded).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Cyclefree said:

    Either we get to reshape Europe in a way which works for all or we get out. Cameron is not prepared to say - or even - think this.

    Cameron's optimistic view is that, over a period of three to four years, and against the background of the Eurozone crisis and the structural reforms which most observers agree are necessary to address that, it can be reshaped.

    He may be over-optimistic in this (certainly it won't be easy). But it does seem very silly not to even try.
    Richard - where is the timetable for these discussions with Europe ? Started ? Start date ? End date for 2017 referendum ?

    DC needs to make them real - we need pictures of people entering a room with a round table.

    I also note...

    Douglas Carswell MP ‏@DouglasCarswell 10 May
    PM might want new deal with EU. On recent trip to Brussels his officials told me they've done nothing to secure it. "not govt policy"

    Douglas Carswell MP ‏@DouglasCarswell 10 May

    If ministers real want a new deal with EU, why do UKREP officials in Brussels cheerfully admit they are doing nothing to secure it?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,397
    @Cyclefree

    "I think that the repatriation of powers is a bit of a red herring, frankly. Fundamentally, Britain has a different view of what the EU should be to most of Continental Europe. Repatriating a few powers is an attempt to reconcile fundamentally different visions. Either we get to reshape Europe in a way which works for all or we get out. Cameron is not prepared to say - or even - think this."


    Have a read of Cameron's January EU speech and you'll see quite alot of thought on how he thinks the EU should be reshaped to make it work better and also an attempt to persuade EU leaders that his vision would be better.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jan/23/david-cameron-eu-speech-referendum
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Mr. 1000, I'd heard there's a serious argument to consider birds avian dinosaurs due to the close genetic links between the two groups.

    A major difference, though, would be the endotherm/ectotherm divide (although perhaps the likes of archaeoptryx and its descendents might have become warm-blooded).

    Counter-argument, do you want to live in a world with living dinosaurs or not?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    a unitary patent court

    What a great idea. The practice of suing for breach of patent across 15 EU court systems is obscene and greatly disadvantages those without abyssally-deep pockets (I'm looking at you, Apple).

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,775
    rcs1000 said:

    Forget all this Europe rubbish: it turns out T-Rex is a closer relation to sparrows than to Stagasaurus

    http://www.xkcd.com/1211/

    Brilliant!

    Although the tooltip from the previous cartoon might be applicable to some on here:
    In retrospect, it's weird that as a kid I thought completely random outbursts made me seem interesting, given that from an information theory point of view, lexical white noise is just about the opposite of interesting by definition.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    TGOHF said:

    Richard - where is the timetable for these discussions with Europe ? Started ? Start date ? End date for 2017 referendum

    In terms of formal negotiations: Start date 8th May 2015, if the British public so desire. End date: By the end of 2017.

    Of course it is not British government policy to start formal negotiations now. How could it be? There's no parliamentary majority for it, a point which Douglas Carswell seems to have forgotten.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim - have you tried including Britons having stag weekends in Eastern Europe? You might get to two million.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    rcs1000 said:

    Forget all this Europe rubbish: it turns out T-Rex is a closer relation to sparrows than to Stagasaurus

    http://www.xkcd.com/1211/

    Brilliant!

    Although the tooltip from the previous cartoon might be applicable to some on here:
    In retrospect, it's weird that as a kid I thought completely random outbursts made me seem interesting, given that from an information theory point of view, lexical white noise is just about the opposite of interesting by definition.
    That's not a nice thing to say about Mr Pork.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Richard - where is the timetable for these discussions with Europe ? Started ? Start date ? End date for 2017 referendum

    Start date 8th May 2015, if the British public so desire.

    Of course it is not British government policy to start negotiations now. How could it be? There's no parliamentary majority for it, a point which Douglas Carswell seems to have forgotten.
    Is it beyond the wit of man for Conservative representatives to be speaking unofficially to say Mrs Merkel's party etc ?

    If the policy is to do ferk all until 8th May 2015 then Cameron is totally stuffed - again it's being reactive not pro-active.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,663
    Richard N: Most if not all of the other EU countries have effectively said "No thanks" to the idea of a renegotiation. Let's assume for a moment that Cameron wins in 2015, with no pesky Lib Dems to hold him back and goes to Brussels to say "let's renegotiate" and they say "On your bike: take it or leave it".

    Does Cameron say "We're off"? Or does he come out with all the usual rubbish about better off in - even in something we don't like - than out. And, if so, what's the point of the whole charade?

    Ultimately, doesn't he have to be prepared to say that he does not believe that Britain (or what's left after the Scots referendum) should stay in an unchanged EU? And the rest of the EU will then need to decide whether or not they want to lose one of the major countries and its second largest net contributor?

    Currently the EU can just ignore the whole thing or take their time because they know that the other parties are largely pro-EU so there is no incentive to do anything to accommodate the Tories.

    I just don't understand Cameron's strategy or his tactics.
  • MarchesMarches Posts: 51
    Singling Apple out is unfair: patent wars have substantially replaced innovation. The value of patents is seen in litigation awards and, equally, the ability to stop or hinder product distribution. That's not to say that we should take the Wikileaks approach and decry anyone who claims that intellectual property should have financial value or give its holder certain rights but the fair use/licence approach is not working hugely well.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    TGOHF said:

    Is it beyond the wit of man for Conservative representatives to be speaking unofficially to say Mrs Merkel's party etc ?

    Of course they are doing that. The chit-chat at Schloss Meseberg wasn't just about how pretty a building it is.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22119096

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22061662
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @tim Let's agree that 800,000 Britons live in Spain. Where are the other 1.2 million?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    @Sam

    Your theory that scared thick racists leaving London has raised the standards in London's schools is definitely worthy of further examination.

    Ha ha ha Brilliant!

    How on earth you have come up with that I will never know!

    I have never said anything of the sort
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,895
    Anorak said:

    a unitary patent court

    What a great idea. The practice of suing for breach of patent across 15 EU court systems is obscene and greatly disadvantages those without abyssally-deep pockets (I'm looking at you, Apple).

    What it means is that, unlike now, one injunctin will stop a product being sold in or imported into 24 countries, or a market of close to 500 million people. For plaintiffs that is an immensely attractive proposition - especially as the plans are a complete Euro-fudge of compromises (sound familiar?) and leave plenty of room for clever lawyers to make hay. You would not want to be a defendant - especially a less well off one - in such litigation:

    http://www.iam-magazine.com/Issues/Article.ashx?g=26fcd519-6985-4aa4-a3c4-f7f02c7be3ef
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Cyclefree - There will undoubtedly be SOME concessions from our EU friends.

    I do agree though, as a matter of tactics, that Cameron should have been more ambiguous about what he would recommend in the event that the concessions don't amount to much. Possibly the latest Gove/Hammond remarks are an indication that they are trying to correct this.

    It is a bit of a balancing act, though; too much in the other direction would create a fear/uncertainty backlash.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Is it beyond the wit of man for Conservative representatives to be speaking unofficially to say Mrs Merkel's party etc ?

    Of course they are doing that. The chit-chat at Schloss Meseberg wasn't just about how pretty a building it is.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22119096

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22061662
    Great - how does he turn that into something concrete to get him over his credibility problem over a referendum ?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    sam said:

    tim said:

    @Sam

    Your theory that scared thick racists leaving London has raised the standards in London's schools is definitely worthy of further examination.

    Ha ha ha Brilliant!

    How on earth you have come up with that I will never know!

    I have never said anything of the sort
    Please don't distract him, sam. He's just about to show me how there are "millions" of British citizens living in other EU countries.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    sam said:

    Socrates said:

    @tim

    May I suggest a good response to go with? How about this one:

    tim said:

    @Socrates

    Yes, thanks for the correction. I made a mistake and overstated the numbers. Still, my underlying point remains. While it's not quite "millions" of Britons living in other EU countries, it's still a very large number, and this will pose a conundrum that UKIP will have to deal with at some point.

    However, I've learnt a valuable lesson that it's easy to make a mistake with numbers when posting on an informal blog. I've been a bit rash in the past in demonising people I've corrected and I promise to be more conciliatory in future. Sorry!

    Go on. It'd genuinely improve people's opinion of you and could be the start of a whole new leaf.
    Tim and certain other lefties are part of the "No apology necessary" club... and if you pull them on it your posts go down the memory hole


    Socrates claims fewer than 800,000 Brits living in the whole of the EU.

    The Foreign Office estimates that 800,000 British nationals live all or part of the year in Spain. Residency is difficult to measure, but estimates vary from 250,000 to 400,000.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/expat-money/10046400/Expats-feeling-the-pain-in-Spain-should-think-twice-before-fleeing.html
    So the Guardian yesterday wasn't a good source, but the Telegraph today wins your case?

    (and the article also says that *residency* which is more relevant here is 250-400K, not 800K
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2013
    Marches said:

    Singling Apple out is unfair: patent wars have substantially replaced innovation. The value of patents is seen in litigation awards and, equally, the ability to stop or hinder product distribution. That's not to say that we should take the Wikileaks approach and decry anyone who claims that intellectual property should have financial value or give its holder certain rights but the fair use/licence approach is not working hugely well.

    I single Apple out as one of the most litigious major companies around. This is compounded by the US patent office approving things which are (to the common man) unbelievably obvious an un-innovative. These are then used to sue others into oblivion and create the false (IMO) impression that Apple are being ripped off left, right, and centre. Not to say they don't have their imitators, but claiming infringement because a competitor also used "rounded corners" on their tablet is ridiculous.
This discussion has been closed.