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The Davey-Starmer “pact” is bad news for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,648
    COVID Summary

    - Cases still falling. Looks like R may be in the process of levelling off in England. Scotland still higher.
    - Hospital admissions down. R steady below 1.
    - MV beds down
    - In hospital down
    - Deaths down

    image
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    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    1. Stand with them how? In solidarity as Russia invades and we do nothing? We aren't going to war with Russia, we aren't going to provide Ukraine with a supply of weapons to defend themselves with - so what is standing with them other than hot air?
    2. Are the Tories handing their millions back? They're complicit.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,149

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    You talk more and more nonsense sadly and your bitterness over HMG is plain to see

    Maybe you should listen to the US and Nato itself and criticise France and Germany who are letting Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states down
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,648

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    True - but listen to the narrative that the Stop The War type are selling

    - Ukrainians are all fascists
    - Massacres in 1943 justify Russia invading today
    - etc etc

    Its the same arguments as were used to justify the Serbs....

    it's like mould. Keeps growing back.
    To be honest though, as I read through the link to 1943 Poet Laureate posted yesterday, I felt like I didn’t like Ukrainian nationalists. It wasn’t that they were fighting, there was no justification for the crime of ethnic cleansing 😕

    Being very honest here, it had coloured my views when todays Ukraine nationalists came on the news afterwards. And I’m not even Polish.
    I'm not that keen on Ukrainian nationalists either but you can understand why they may not be very enthusiastic about having their destinies decided by an ex-KGB operative like Putin - with a history like this:

    "The Holodomor also known as the Terror-Famine, or the Great Famine, was a famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians.... Since 2006, the Holodomor has been recognized by Ukraine and 15 other countries as a genocide of the Ukrainian people carried out by the Soviet government."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    True - but listen to the narrative that the Stop The War type are selling

    - Ukrainians are all fascists
    - Massacres in 1943 justify Russia invading today
    - etc etc

    Its the same arguments as were used to justify the Serbs....

    it's like mould. Keeps growing back.
    To be honest though, as I read through the link to 1943 Poet Laureate posted yesterday, I felt like I didn’t like Ukrainian nationalists. It wasn’t that they were fighting, there was no justification for the crime of ethnic cleansing 😕

    Being very honest here, it had coloured my views when todays Ukraine nationalists came on the news afterwards. And I’m not even Polish.
    Well, I've got Polish *and* Ukrainian ancestry. And Russian.

    The trick with this stuff is to start from the point of view that *everyone* is in the wrong, *historically*.

    This make it clear that wacking people over the head with clubs to "fix" historical wrongs will only produce more dead people.

    Then make *agreements* between the people actually alive today.

    Good Friday Agreement vs Srebrenica
    Doesn’t it want you both to stop and pray for them all to stop looking for the upper hand in which to kill one another over and over forever? ☹️

    It’s interesting you mention good Friday agreement that ended the troubles. So much of this news story echoes that to me, even though I was only about one, I know, just like Ukraine demand, there can’t be any convincing votes like for autonomy till the paramilitaries are gone. And Good Friday agreement nearly collapsed when Adam’s boasted “the IRA haven’t gone away you know”? So I agree with Ukrainians on that point.

    Also, when TV goes into all their houses and schools and grocery stores, they look so poor compared to London I have been out shopping in today and flat I have come back to! Doesn’t it make you feel you to want to pray for them to have more wealth, better schools and better hospitals?
    It makes me want to run a straight edged razor across Putin's throat, mostly.

    But..... It is very simple. Putin needs to stop making war, either by proxy or directly.

    "Doesn’t it want you both to stop and pray for them all to stop looking for the upper hand in which to kill one another over and over forever?" - the point is to stop. The Ukrainian government doesn't want "the upper hand" - whatever that might be - they simply want the Russians to stop invading Ukraine.

    The Good Friday Agreement didn't end the troubles. It froze them in place in the hope that by the time the fuckwits get bored with peace, a new generation will have forgotten about fuckwitism. There is little sign of that, actually.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,112

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    I don't believe scoring cheap political points against nations Mr Johnson would call "our friends" is helpful.

    There was a certain white flagged pragmatism from Germany yesterday which made some sense to me. Ukraine will retain more territory without an invasion than it will should Putin pull the trigger.

    Let's not even think about the potential civilian death toll.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,200

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    "His party is funded by Russia"

    Do you think every single Russian is an agent of the state?
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,863
    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    Do you have any more information on the final point? I'd only seen the announcement of closing the Tier 1 visas - do we have details of the much-promised sanctions etc? (I couldn't spot anything on a quick skim of news sites)
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,481
    edited February 2022
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile where is @BartholomewRoberts these days. Very interested to read his higher wages and higher prices and higher wages is a good thing posts.
    .

    You’ll have noted that there was strong growth in real wages in 2021 being confirmed earlier this week? The increase in inflation since the beginning of the year has left wages behind temporarily but hopefully only for a few months.
    "hopefully" indeed. But where does the cycle end? Costs and therefore prices rise so wages rise and costs and prices rise and wages rise.

    This is good in your opinion? What are you some kind of pre-Thatcher era Union leader?
    The main cause of inflation now is that we put the cost of the pandemic on the QE tab 2 years ago. We have a bit of that to work through but my hope is that increasing wages will drive increased investment to boost productivity and the general standard of living.
    Blimey. You think that is going to happen. Now. When everyone is battered and businesses are having to pay more to get hitherto plentiful labour and raise prices just to stand still.

    You think amidst this there will be a boost to increase productivity and the general standard of living.

    At present price growth is outstripping wage growth. Once inflation takes hold then it is very difficult to get it out of the system. Better economists than you or I (and much better ones than @BartholomewRoberts) are praying that it will work its way through once energy price rises have worked their way through, etc.
    .
    The main problem since 2008 has been deflation not inflation. The price of oil fell 5% yesterday and gas even more. No doubt they will be back up again today given the latest shenanigans but there is a big war premium in the price right now.
    Yes of course, those rises are volatile and likely temporary. But if wages continue to go up then that will mean higher prices which leads to higher wages and that is not temporary; inflation becomes permanent or embedded and then we have a problem. And policy responses are equally problematic.
    I got a notification that I was tagged in this by @TOPPING . Sorry, I'm not online as much as I used to be anymore as I'm quite busy IRL so not spending as much time here.

    Wages going up is a good thing, so long as the wages are going up because of demand for the labour. Inflation for inflation's sake is a bad thing of course, but then wages aren't rising in real terms if that's all it is. Real wages rises are a good thing and David is entirely right that rising real wages leads to an increase in investment for productivity and it is productivity growth that makes us all better off.

    What we're seeing now is really still very moderate inflation. We're not talking Zimbabwean thousands of percent inflation, we're talking about inflation of ~5.5% as the highest inflation in thirty years. Yet as I've pointed out before house price inflation has averaged 6.2% for the first two decades of this century.

    So people are losing their minds and all perspective from inflation that is below inflation that we've been used to in recent decades. Its just that now prices are going up on things homeowners need to pay for and not just everyone else instead of them.
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    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    1. Stand with them how? In solidarity as Russia invades and we do nothing? We aren't going to war with Russia, we aren't going to provide Ukraine with a supply of weapons to defend themselves with - so what is standing with them other than hot air?
    2. Are the Tories handing their millions back? They're complicit.
    We already are supplying Ukraine with weapons so indicates you are not very knowledgeable on the subject
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,648

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,269
    rcs1000 said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    Phew.

    It's all getting a bit hairy isn't it?

    My assumption in this is that Russia wants the Eastern provinces of Poland to become independent (Russian client) states, and that those people who are inclined to support "the West" are effectively forced to leave their homes and head into rump Ukraine.

    In addition, I think he wants rump Ukraine to abandon all ambitions to join NATO and/or the EU, and to recognise that it is inside Russia's sphere of influence.

    Can Russia achieve this? Well, the first part certainly, but potentially at very high cost. Although Russia's armed forced are pretty good, invasions of well prepared enemies are far from risk-less.
    Hopefully you mean Eastern Ukraine not Eastern Poland, but otherwise I agree
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,258
    edited February 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    No.

    We are standing in union with the nations that are willing to do so. That the Germans and French aren't willing to do so should be to their eternal shame, but we absolutely should not allow those to hold us back from unity with the likes of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States.

    If countries like Germany and France want to abdicate social responsibility and absent themselves from the free world that's their prerogative. We are doing the right thing though.
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    Fair point, but neither incarnation sounds particularly appealing.

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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,915
    For @Leon and @rcs1000 Inside Science on Radio 4 on the Wuhan Lab conspiracy. There is also a more details apparently on the web site, but I haven't read any of these.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,112
    edited February 2022

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    You talk more and more nonsense sadly and your bitterness over HMG is plain to see

    Maybe you should listen to the US and Nato itself and criticise France and Germany who are letting Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states down
    I'm with Tom Tugendhadt. Warm words are a waste of time. We should have NATO forces in Ukraine and lots of them. He says the idea that Ukraine isn't in NATO is a spurious cop out.

    We either negotiate a peace or we demonstrate we mean business. Preferably both.
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    You talk more and more nonsense sadly and your bitterness over HMG is plain to see

    Maybe you should listen to the US and Nato itself and criticise France and Germany who are letting Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states down
    We can agree to disagree on the idea of NATO fighting a general war with Russia to defend Ukraine.

    Can you point to the specifics where I am wrong about the Conservative Party being in the pockets of Russian oligarchs? I can point both to their donations to the central party and to various MPs. Temerko himself turned up at a hustings in 2015 as he was doing a door of all his candidates to see how his money was being spent...
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    A surprising number of the arguments against Brexit eventually boil down to "No, because the EU is too useless/bureaucratic/dysfunctional for your concerns to be realised".

    Quite why this should be presented as an enticement to membership remains beyond me.
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    1. Stand with them how? In solidarity as Russia invades and we do nothing? We aren't going to war with Russia, we aren't going to provide Ukraine with a supply of weapons to defend themselves with - so what is standing with them other than hot air?
    2. Are the Tories handing their millions back? They're complicit.
    We already are supplying Ukraine with weapons so indicates you are not very knowledgeable on the subject
    In a shooting war? Would be a bit different to our army being in Ukraine until recently doing "training"
  • Options
    Polruan said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    Do you have any more information on the final point? I'd only seen the announcement of closing the Tier 1 visas - do we have details of the much-promised sanctions etc? (I couldn't spot anything on a quick skim of news sites)
    Seems an announcement will be made by the Home Secretary when Parliament returns
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,149
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed such a referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed
    Thanks for clearing that up on behalf of the Tory party. 🙂 Our ScotNats mostly still ruminating if it’s worth a brief sinful affair in return for another crack at independence, as they are so quiet responding to this.

    All on topic by the way!
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,212

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    "His party is funded by Russia"

    Do you think every single Russian is an agent of the state?
    Russians under the cushions.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,863
    MISTY said:

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    Fair point, but neither incarnation sounds particularly appealing.

    True that :smile:
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,149

    Polruan said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    Do you have any more information on the final point? I'd only seen the announcement of closing the Tier 1 visas - do we have details of the much-promised sanctions etc? (I couldn't spot anything on a quick skim of news sites)
    Seems an announcement will be made by the Home Secretary when Parliament returns
    About time too. Not just the Russian influence, but the Chinese and Saudi too.
  • Options
    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    But that's why we were right to leave. Because its the worst of both worlds.

    A European nation with a European demos is an entirely reasonable thing to have, if that's what people want.
    A collection of European nations, all with the own decision making, is also entirely reasonable, if that's what people want.

    But instead the EU is a mish-mash where it adopts superstate elements like the Euro, but without the demos, the democratic oversight, or the rest of the powers etc it needs to make decisions and to make it work.

    Hence why I have previously described the EU as sclerotic, instead of an agile independent nation like Britain. Because its too dysfunctional, yet it has those elements that its already got, but dysfunctionally controlled. That isn't a good thing.
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    You talk more and more nonsense sadly and your bitterness over HMG is plain to see

    Maybe you should listen to the US and Nato itself and criticise France and Germany who are letting Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states down
    I'm with Tom Tugendhadt. Warm words are a waste of time. We should have NATO forces in Ukraine and lots of them. He says the idea that Ukraine isn't in NATO is a spurious cop out.

    We either negotiate a peace or we demonstrate we mean business. Preferably both.
    At this moment in time NATO troops entering Ukraine would see Russia invade
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,648

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    1. Stand with them how? In solidarity as Russia invades and we do nothing? We aren't going to war with Russia, we aren't going to provide Ukraine with a supply of weapons to defend themselves with - so what is standing with them other than hot air?
    2. Are the Tories handing their millions back? They're complicit.
    We already are supplying Ukraine with weapons so indicates you are not very knowledgeable on the subject
    In a shooting war? Would be a bit different to our army being in Ukraine until recently doing "training"
    Nope - you can be *neutral* in a war and sell weapons, legally, under international law.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,212

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed such a referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed
    Thanks for clearing that up on behalf of the Tory party. 🙂 Our ScotNats mostly still ruminating if it’s worth a brief sinful affair in return for another crack at independence, as they are so quiet responding to this.

    All on topic by the way!
    If the SNP form part of a governing coalition, with ministerial posts etc., it will be difficult for them because it will make their central raison d'etre, that Scotland is a powerless colonial possession, a demonstrably ridiculous lie.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,774
    edited February 2022

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile where is @BartholomewRoberts these days. Very interested to read his higher wages and higher prices and higher wages is a good thing posts.
    .

    You’ll have noted that there was strong growth in real wages in 2021 being confirmed earlier this week? The increase in inflation since the beginning of the year has left wages behind temporarily but hopefully only for a few months.
    "hopefully" indeed. But where does the cycle end? Costs and therefore prices rise so wages rise and costs and prices rise and wages rise.

    This is good in your opinion? What are you some kind of pre-Thatcher era Union leader?
    The main cause of inflation now is that we put the cost of the pandemic on the QE tab 2 years ago. We have a bit of that to work through but my hope is that increasing wages will drive increased investment to boost productivity and the general standard of living.
    Blimey. You think that is going to happen. Now. When everyone is battered and businesses are having to pay more to get hitherto plentiful labour and raise prices just to stand still.

    You think amidst this there will be a boost to increase productivity and the general standard of living.

    At present price growth is outstripping wage growth. Once inflation takes hold then it is very difficult to get it out of the system. Better economists than you or I (and much better ones than @BartholomewRoberts) are praying that it will work its way through once energy price rises have worked their way through, etc.
    .
    The main problem since 2008 has been deflation not inflation. The price of oil fell 5% yesterday and gas even more. No doubt they will be back up again today given the latest shenanigans but there is a big war premium in the price right now.
    Yes of course, those rises are volatile and likely temporary. But if wages continue to go up then that will mean higher prices which leads to higher wages and that is not temporary; inflation becomes permanent or embedded and then we have a problem. And policy responses are equally problematic.
    I got a notification that I was tagged in this by @TOPPING . Sorry, I'm not online as much as I used to be anymore as I'm quite busy IRL so not spending as much time here.

    Wages going up is a good thing, so long as the wages are going up because of demand for the labour. Inflation for inflation's sake is a bad thing of course, but then wages aren't rising in real terms if that's all it is. Real wages rises are a good thing and David is entirely right that rising real wages leads to an increase in investment for productivity and it is productivity growth that makes us all better off.

    What we're seeing now is really still very moderate inflation. We're not talking Zimbabwean thousands of percent inflation, we're talking about inflation of ~5.5% as the highest inflation in thirty years. Yet as I've pointed out before house price inflation has averaged 6.2% for the first two decades of this century.

    So people are losing their minds and all perspective from inflation that is below inflation that we've been used to in recent decades. Its just that now prices are going up on things homeowners need to pay for and not just everyone else instead of them.
    This is true, but like most things needs to be mildly caveated:

    (1) Inflation is - fundamentally - a response to demand outstripping supply. To bring them back into balance, wages increase, which both brings people back into the workforce, and demand falls. We should be keener on the first that than the second, and it's important the policy response is calibrated to that.

    (2) Rising wages will mean rising prices. Wage costs - whether in your local grocery store, or Amazon or Macdonalds - are passed on, or businesses go out of business. This is fine for those benefiting from higher wages, but will be less fun for those on fixed incomes.

    (3) So far, the willingness of Central Banks to use interest rates to counter inflation has been minimal. It is generally considered (not without merit) that worldwide labour shortages are mostly transitory in nature as Covid recedes, and the spike in commodity prices is also likely to recede as drilling returns in the US. However, it is entirely possible that that attitude changes - especially if rising inflation means increased current account deficits.
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Polruan said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    Do you have any more information on the final point? I'd only seen the announcement of closing the Tier 1 visas - do we have details of the much-promised sanctions etc? (I couldn't spot anything on a quick skim of news sites)
    Seems an announcement will be made by the Home Secretary when Parliament returns
    Well, that's good - I mean, it's not like there's any need to show we are taking serious and urgent action or anything.
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    Fair point, but neither incarnation sounds particularly appealing.

    True that :smile:
    'Brexit wasn't a break with the EU, it was actually the prelude to a takeover bid...'

    ...discuss...
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,863
    Endillion said:

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    A surprising number of the arguments against Brexit eventually boil down to "No, because the EU is too useless/bureaucratic/dysfunctional for your concerns to be realised".

    Quite why this should be presented as an enticement to membership remains beyond me.
    Yep. Well, my view (FWIW) was that there was no real apetite for e.g. common foreign policy beyond a few of the more integrationist MEPs. Many countries would not have been up for that, I think - UK, Netherlands, Sweden, likely Danes to name but a few from my experiences working in those countries. Which was why I was fairly relaxed about the idea.

    If there was enthusiasm and an agreement was made for common foreign policy, then I think the general dysfunctionality and too many cooks would make it, in practice, fairly slow and toothless, as we saw with the vaccine situation. Fudge served up for every international situation.

    So, I was only content being in the EU due to my perception of the lack of apetite. If I really thought it would be attempted then I think it would have been a bit of a disaster and good reason to be out.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,098
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    But there is a pro-referendum majority at Holyrood now. So you are misleading on that.

    And you are also wrong on indiyref 1 being held on a generation basis. Where does it say that in the Edinburgh Agreement? As you have been asked very many times.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,149

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    1. Stand with them how? In solidarity as Russia invades and we do nothing? We aren't going to war with Russia, we aren't going to provide Ukraine with a supply of weapons to defend themselves with - so what is standing with them other than hot air?
    2. Are the Tories handing their millions back? They're complicit.
    We already are supplying Ukraine with weapons so indicates you are not very knowledgeable on the subject
    In a shooting war? Would be a bit different to our army being in Ukraine until recently doing "training"
    So far today the Tory head of the Parliament Defence Committee has called on NATO to provide a no fly zone and air support to Ukraine, and called any sanctions counter productive and not in UKs strategic interest.

    And the British PM has called shelling on a school in Russian held area an obvious false flag.

    I still say Starmer is in trouble how to respond to this at PMQs. Boris and Biden claiming victory for any Russian withdraw because of the stance they took would be at most politest: unproven - so Starmer could be both wrong as nodding dog or head shaking Putin puppet. 😁
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    1. Stand with them how? In solidarity as Russia invades and we do nothing? We aren't going to war with Russia, we aren't going to provide Ukraine with a supply of weapons to defend themselves with - so what is standing with them other than hot air?
    2. Are the Tories handing their millions back? They're complicit.
    We already are supplying Ukraine with weapons so indicates you are not very knowledgeable on the subject
    In a shooting war? Would be a bit different to our army being in Ukraine until recently doing "training"
    Nope - you can be *neutral* in a war and sell weapons, legally, under international law.
    Whilst that is true, logically you need to be selling weapons to *both* sides. Which is of course why the American military-industrial complex has been so successful over the years...
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,098
    edited February 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed such a referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed
    Thanks for clearing that up on behalf of the Tory party. 🙂 Our ScotNats mostly still ruminating if it’s worth a brief sinful affair in return for another crack at independence, as they are so quiet responding to this.

    All on topic by the way!
    If the SNP form part of a governing coalition, with ministerial posts etc., it will be difficult for them because it will make their central raison d'etre, that Scotland is a powerless colonial possession, a demonstrably ridiculous lie.
    It's not a lie, given that Mr Johnson can close down the devolved governments whenever he wants (assuming he could get it through Westminster).
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,648

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    1. Stand with them how? In solidarity as Russia invades and we do nothing? We aren't going to war with Russia, we aren't going to provide Ukraine with a supply of weapons to defend themselves with - so what is standing with them other than hot air?
    2. Are the Tories handing their millions back? They're complicit.
    We already are supplying Ukraine with weapons so indicates you are not very knowledgeable on the subject
    In a shooting war? Would be a bit different to our army being in Ukraine until recently doing "training"
    Nope - you can be *neutral* in a war and sell weapons, legally, under international law.
    Whilst that is true, logically you need to be selling weapons to *both* sides. Which is of course why the American military-industrial complex has been so successful over the years...
    No, you don't. Plenty of example in history of "neutrals" selling to the side they liked.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,121
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    You idea of "fit to serve" can safely be discarded as fringe bordering insane.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,149

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed such a referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed
    Thanks for clearing that up on behalf of the Tory party. 🙂 Our ScotNats mostly still ruminating if it’s worth a brief sinful affair in return for another crack at independence, as they are so quiet responding to this.

    All on topic by the way!
    If the SNP form part of a governing coalition, with ministerial posts etc., it will be difficult for them because it will make their central raison d'etre, that Scotland is a powerless colonial possession, a demonstrably ridiculous lie.
    They don’t have to do anything like that though - merely see off voncs and pass budget messuars till the referendum bill.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,863

    I seem to remember our government saying that it would crack down mercilessly on dodgy Russian money following the annexation of Crimea. With little or no impact.
    I seem to remember exactly the same declaration after the Salisbury attack. With little or no impact.
    And now the same again. Don't blame me if I'm not convinced.

    Ah, but all the Russian money here is squeaky clean, obviously. Very civilised chaps. Invite you for lunch, make donations to the party... If any dodgy Russian money turns up, we will of course crack down mercilessly.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,102
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    You idea of "fit to serve" can safely be discarded as fringe bordering insane.
    Especially since the PM has already demonstrated himself unfit to serve.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,149

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,863
    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    A surprising number of the arguments against Brexit eventually boil down to "No, because the EU is too useless/bureaucratic/dysfunctional for your concerns to be realised".

    Quite why this should be presented as an enticement to membership remains beyond me.
    The EU is simultaneously on a path to being a superstate, and contains too many competing interests to make that work easily.
    The funniest part of Cameron's deal was that ever closer union was not to apply to the UK. Which was a somewhat bizarre situation. Either ever closer union was bollocks or we'd just created a semi-detached tier of EU membership which, presumably, some other countries would also find appealing (e.g. Sweden carefully avoiding the Euro). Just words, of course, but with a bit more commitment on all sides it could perhaps have turned into something interesting.
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    A surprising number of the arguments against Brexit eventually boil down to "No, because the EU is too useless/bureaucratic/dysfunctional for your concerns to be realised".

    Quite why this should be presented as an enticement to membership remains beyond me.
    The EU is simultaneously on a path to being a superstate, and contains too many competing interests to make that work easily.
    And Britain's approach to the eastern EU states in the face of Russian aggression indicates British policy is things stay that way....???

  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    On a point of order, I am not delighted by France and Germany behaviour rather very disappointed
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,580
    edited February 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    My assumption in this is that Russia wants the Eastern provinces of Poland to become independent (Russian client) states, and that those people who are inclined to support "the West" are effectively forced to leave their homes and head into rump Ukraine.

    I presume you mean Ukraine here? Eastern provinces of Poland would make things very interesting if Putin got that to happen, because I think all 'eastern' parts of Poland are very ethnically Polish and I doubt Poland would give those up in any circumstances.
    Quite right.
    In 1945 Russia basically kept the parts of Poland it had invaded in 1939 along a very similar line. Poland received a substantial chunk of pre-war Germany. It moved about a third of its width to the West.

    It may be that the Western parts of Russia there are ethnically Polish, unless either a) Stalin expelled the population, or b) Stalin deported all of them elsewhere in the USSR (a la Cossacks) or killed them. Not sure off the top of my head what the actions were exactly. I think some stayed and some moved West into the new messy.



    Plus Germans were expelled en masse from new and existing Polish areas, though there would perhaps be a mix between those who had been there for a long time and new ones imported by Hitler.

    This was by agreement between the allies at the Yalta Conference (?). All very messy.

    Details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_population_transfers_(1944–1946)#:~:text=The Polish population transfers in,was ratified by the Allies.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,212

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed such a referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed
    Thanks for clearing that up on behalf of the Tory party. 🙂 Our ScotNats mostly still ruminating if it’s worth a brief sinful affair in return for another crack at independence, as they are so quiet responding to this.

    All on topic by the way!
    If the SNP form part of a governing coalition, with ministerial posts etc., it will be difficult for them because it will make their central raison d'etre, that Scotland is a powerless colonial possession, a demonstrably ridiculous lie.
    They don’t have to do anything like that though - merely see off voncs and pass budget messuars till the referendum bill.
    Indeed, but they would still have to refuse Government posts, which would be embarrassing, and a boon to other parties in Scotland - why vote for the SNP when they won't take the power that they say isn't on offer?

    In the same vein, I had an idea a while ago to democratise the HOL, by tying peerages awarded to proportion of votes at the last GE. If the SNP refused their peerages, once again they would be placed in a position of refusing representation for Scotland. If they took them, it would sit very uncomfortably with many (if not most) of their supporters. What would they do? Probably refuse, and again give the other parties ammunition to say that they're deliberately wasting chances to give Scotland a bigger say at Westminster.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,863

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    But that's why we were right to leave. Because its the worst of both worlds.

    A European nation with a European demos is an entirely reasonable thing to have, if that's what people want.
    A collection of European nations, all with the own decision making, is also entirely reasonable, if that's what people want.

    But instead the EU is a mish-mash where it adopts superstate elements like the Euro, but without the demos, the democratic oversight, or the rest of the powers etc it needs to make decisions and to make it work.

    Hence why I have previously described the EU as sclerotic, instead of an agile independent nation like Britain. Because its too dysfunctional, yet it has those elements that its already got, but dysfunctionally controlled. That isn't a good thing.
    Yep. I have some sympathy with your viewpoint that we should either be fully in or fully out (where fully in is either a single state or at least much closer union).

    The Euro, as we've seen, comes under strain because there's a bit too much* national autonomy (or countries that were too different were allowed to join).

    *too much to make the Euro work well for everyone, not saying that national autonomy is a bad thing
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,648

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    France and Germany have a long standing policy of ceding to Putin "dominance of Eastern Europe". In Germany's case, this extends even (for some politicians) to the Baltic Republics - despite them being in the EU.

    Quite simply, the attitude is that it's Putin's playground and he should be allowed to do whatever.

    It's comes down to the problem of what happens next. If the Sudetenland *had* been the last territorial demand, would that have been right?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    Golly, back from ‘the Tories will never allow another Indy ref’ to ‘once in a generation referendum’. I’m mildly curious what such backsliding means but I strongly suspect you don’t know yourself.
  • Options
    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Spring coming. Sun shining. The city is full of young families on trips flocking to museums, sights. London is back. The place is surging with energy and optimism again. Great to see.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1

    ===

    Is @Leon really Iain Martin? We should be told!
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,121
    It's not me but if it was I'd have no shame in it.

    Better that than spend months moaning about a Formula 1 race.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,648
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    My assumption in this is that Russia wants the Eastern provinces of Poland to become independent (Russian client) states, and that those people who are inclined to support "the West" are effectively forced to leave their homes and head into rump Ukraine.

    I presume you mean Ukraine here? Eastern provinces of Poland would make things very interesting if Putin got that to happen, because I think all 'eastern' parts of Poland are very ethnically Polish and I doubt Poland would give those up in any circumstances.
    Quite right.
    In 1945 Russia basically kept the parts of Poland it had invaded in 1939 along a very similar line. Poland received a substantial chunk of pre-war Germany. It moved about a third of its width to the West.



    It may be that the Western parts of Russia there are ethnically Polish, unless either a) Stalin expelled the population, or b) Stalin deported all of them elsewhere in the USSR (a la Cossacks) or killed them. Not sure off the top of my head what the actions were exactly. I think some stayed and some moved West.

    Plus Germans were expelled en masse from new and existing Polish areas, though there would perhaps be a mix between those who had been there for a long time and new ones imported by Hitler.

    This was by agreement between the allies at the Yalta Conference (?).

    Details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_population_transfers_(1944–1946)#:~:text=The Polish population transfers in,was ratified by the Allies.
    Most of the Polish population left in Russia by the new border was moved into Poland. By force. Once the new lines were drawn, populations were moved to match them. This was done across Europe.

    The Sudeten Germans were expelled from Czechoslovakia, for example. Or the Italians inside the new Yugoslavia. This was accompanied by massive efforts to erase the histories of the groups in question - towns renamed, churches demolished etc etc.
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    On a point of order, I am not delighted by France and Germany behaviour rather very disappointed
    IF you are disappointed we can only imagine how the eastern EU states feel. What's the point of this club? Our best mate seems to be bloke what left it?

    Its that the real intention of Johnson and Truss here? undermine the club? If so, its a dangerous and foolish game I reckon.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,121

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Spring coming. Sun shining. The city is full of young families on trips flocking to museums, sights. London is back. The place is surging with energy and optimism again. Great to see.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1

    ===

    Is @Leon really Iain Martin? We should be told!

    Nous sommes tous Leon
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,139

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    "His party is funded by Russia"

    Do you think every single Russian is an agent of the state?
    It’s all Reds under the beds stuff.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,648
    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    On a point of order, I am not delighted by France and Germany behaviour rather very disappointed
    IF you are disappointed we can only imagine how the eastern EU states feel. What's the point of this club? Our best mate seems to be bloke what left it?

    Its that the real intention of Johnson and Truss here? undermine the club? If so, its a dangerous and foolish game I reckon.
    The Eastern states are really not impressed by the idea of Western powers doing deals about how the neighbourhood gets carved up, against their wishes.

    I wonder why?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,580
    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    A surprising number of the arguments against Brexit eventually boil down to "No, because the EU is too useless/bureaucratic/dysfunctional for your concerns to be realised".

    Quite why this should be presented as an enticement to membership remains beyond me.
    The EU is simultaneously on a path to being a superstate, and contains too many competing interests to make that work easily.
    The funniest part of Cameron's deal was that ever closer union was not to apply to the UK. Which was a somewhat bizarre situation. Either ever closer union was bollocks or we'd just created a semi-detached tier of EU membership which, presumably, some other countries would also find appealing (e.g. Sweden carefully avoiding the Euro). Just words, of course, but with a bit more commitment on all sides it could perhaps have turned into something interesting.
    I think that "Ever Closer Union" has turned out to be far less "just words" than was expected, certainly by the UK.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,121
    Taz said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    "His party is funded by Russia"

    Do you think every single Russian is an agent of the state?
    It’s all Reds under the beds stuff.
    Russia is not red, it's closer to fascist these days.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,102
    edited February 2022
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    My assumption in this is that Russia wants the Eastern provinces of Poland to become independent (Russian client) states, and that those people who are inclined to support "the West" are effectively forced to leave their homes and head into rump Ukraine.

    I presume you mean Ukraine here? Eastern provinces of Poland would make things very interesting if Putin got that to happen, because I think all 'eastern' parts of Poland are very ethnically Polish and I doubt Poland would give those up in any circumstances.
    Quite right.
    In 1945 Russia basically kept the parts of Poland it had invaded in 1939 along a very similar line. Poland received a substantial chunk of pre-war Germany. It moved about a third of its width to the West.

    It may be that the Western parts of Russia there are ethnically Polish, unless either a) Stalin expelled the population, or b) Stalin deported all of them elsewhere in the USSR (a la Cossacks) or killed them. Not sure off the top of my head what the actions were exactly. I think some stayed and some moved West into the new messy.



    Plus Germans were expelled en masse from new and existing Polish areas, though there would perhaps be a mix between those who had been there for a long time and new ones imported by Hitler.

    This was by agreement between the allies at the Yalta Conference (?). All very messy.

    Details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_population_transfers_(1944–1946)#:~:text=The Polish population transfers in,was ratified by the Allies.
    There were incentives for Poles to settle the newly acquired western areas, from which the German speakers had almost entirely left, as you say. Very many Poles from the areas to be ceded to the Soviet Union took the opportunity to move west. Many to avoid communism, which sadly didn’t work out too well.
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    On a point of order, I am not delighted by France and Germany behaviour rather very disappointed
    IF you are disappointed we can only imagine how the eastern EU states feel. What's the point of this club? Our best mate seems to be bloke what left it?

    Its that the real intention of Johnson and Truss here? undermine the club? If so, its a dangerous and foolish game I reckon.
    The Eastern states are really not impressed by the idea of Western powers doing deals about how the neighbourhood gets carved up, against their wishes.

    I wonder why?
    Are you saying the Poles, Lithuanians etc don't want our help? Good. Britain is on its uppers and with big issues at home. We can't cash these cheques. Putin surely knows that.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,863
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    A surprising number of the arguments against Brexit eventually boil down to "No, because the EU is too useless/bureaucratic/dysfunctional for your concerns to be realised".

    Quite why this should be presented as an enticement to membership remains beyond me.
    The EU is simultaneously on a path to being a superstate, and contains too many competing interests to make that work easily.
    The funniest part of Cameron's deal was that ever closer union was not to apply to the UK. Which was a somewhat bizarre situation. Either ever closer union was bollocks or we'd just created a semi-detached tier of EU membership which, presumably, some other countries would also find appealing (e.g. Sweden carefully avoiding the Euro). Just words, of course, but with a bit more commitment on all sides it could perhaps have turned into something interesting.
    I think that "Ever Closer Union" has turned out to be far less "just words" than was expected, certainly by the UK.
    I was referring to the bit about it not applying to the UK. Just words, but actually, for those committed to ever closer union, an important set of words. More of a concession than it appeared, I think. Once (if) integrationists accept the idea that ever closer union is not a thing - or, at least, not a universal thing for all members of the EU - then there was scope to get creative about what the EU (or trading arrangments under a differently named body) could mean.

    But anyway, that boat sailed.
  • Options
    The Thatcher winter hat is on. The temperature in Kyiv is currently 6 degrees, the same as Manchester

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1494363825856000007
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,102
    Farooq said:

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Spring coming. Sun shining. The city is full of young families on trips flocking to museums, sights. London is back. The place is surging with energy and optimism again. Great to see.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1

    ===

    Is @Leon really Iain Martin? We should be told!

    Nous sommes tous Leon
    Especially since you can bet that another “central London is still deserted” article will be along shortly.
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    The US UK and Nato are all on the same page, pity France and Germany are not
  • Options
    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    A surprising number of the arguments against Brexit eventually boil down to "No, because the EU is too useless/bureaucratic/dysfunctional for your concerns to be realised".

    Quite why this should be presented as an enticement to membership remains beyond me.
    The EU is simultaneously on a path to being a superstate, and contains too many competing interests to make that work easily.
    The funniest part of Cameron's deal was that ever closer union was not to apply to the UK. Which was a somewhat bizarre situation. Either ever closer union was bollocks or we'd just created a semi-detached tier of EU membership which, presumably, some other countries would also find appealing (e.g. Sweden carefully avoiding the Euro). Just words, of course, but with a bit more commitment on all sides it could perhaps have turned into something interesting.
    Yes, the "twin-track" or "two-speed" Europe. The basic problem was that it was a big slice of classic European fudge, not really believed by either group as sustainable.

    Ultimately there is the EU, and there is the trading block. Our unique piece of genius is that having largely set up and driven the creation of the trading block and opted out of the worst of the ever closer union, we've now flounced from the lot.

    Having spent decades removing red tape and abolishing trade barriers we have voluntarily reinstalled them having persuaded people that the trading block is the ever closer union. Which of course it isn't and never was.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,650

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    How has Putin benefitted in Ukraine from the UK leaving the EU? Surely his position would have been better if the UK had been tied to an EU position by majority voting, rather than having us be a powerful and noisy force in NATO?
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    But there is a pro-referendum majority at Holyrood now. So you are misleading on that.

    And you are also wrong on indiyref 1 being held on a generation basis. Where does it say that in the Edinburgh Agreement? As you have been asked very many times.
    Implicit in paragraph 30, since both sides were clear before the referendum that it was once in a generation.

    They look forward to a referendum that is legal and fair producing a decisive and respected outcome.

    The SNP have clearly broken this part of the agreement.
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,003

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    How has Putin benefitted in Ukraine from the UK leaving the EU? Surely his position would have been better if the UK had been tied to an EU position by majority voting, rather than having us be a powerful and noisy force in NATO?
    Pretty much this. We’ve been far more agile outside
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,102
    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Selebian said:

    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
    A surprising number of the arguments against Brexit eventually boil down to "No, because the EU is too useless/bureaucratic/dysfunctional for your concerns to be realised".

    Quite why this should be presented as an enticement to membership remains beyond me.
    The EU is simultaneously on a path to being a superstate, and contains too many competing interests to make that work easily.
    The funniest part of Cameron's deal was that ever closer union was not to apply to the UK. Which was a somewhat bizarre situation. Either ever closer union was bollocks or we'd just created a semi-detached tier of EU membership which, presumably, some other countries would also find appealing (e.g. Sweden carefully avoiding the Euro). Just words, of course, but with a bit more commitment on all sides it could perhaps have turned into something interesting.
    I think that "Ever Closer Union" has turned out to be far less "just words" than was expected, certainly by the UK.
    I was referring to the bit about it not applying to the UK. Just words, but actually, for those committed to ever closer union, an important set of words. More of a concession than it appeared, I think. Once (if) integrationists accept the idea that ever closer union is not a thing - or, at least, not a universal thing for all members of the EU - then there was scope to get creative about what the EU (or trading arrangments under a differently named body) could mean.

    But anyway, that boat sailed.
    Aside from immigration, which Cameron never saw as a priority issue, Cammo’s deal was an excellent one for the UK. More fool us for turning it down.
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    How has Putin benefitted in Ukraine from the UK leaving the EU? Surely his position would have been better if the UK had been tied to an EU position by majority voting, rather than having us be a powerful and noisy force in NATO?
    Putin wants fragmentation. Drive wedges between the NATO members who are also EU members. The fall of the UK in terms of both military power and diplomatic reach weakens the rest of the EU, as does internal divisions over things like energy supplies.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,102
    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    This is true, which is why over this I tend to think twice over dishing criticism too liberally over this issue. I think the UK has got it more right than Germany, but I don't think it's helpful to be attacking anyone other than Russia right now. The eagerness with which some people are seizing upon this situation to attack Boris, Macron, the EU, Ukraine, Biden, NATO, etc. is a disturbing sign. It feels like arguing over whose deckchair is whose on the deck of a ship when we're at risk of hitting an iceberg.
    Lift your eyes up, people. If you think this crisis is useful ammunition in your longstanding grudge against [whoever], you're not seeing the big picture.

    Which is not to say there aren't valid criticisms to be made here, but most of the criticisms I see on here about this are low-energy partisan snipes by people who probably couldn't even point to Kyiv on a map.
    We’d nevertheless be safer with a PM interested in more than his own self preservation.
  • Options
    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    This is true, which is why over this I tend to think twice over dishing criticism too liberally over this issue. I think the UK has got it more right than Germany, but I don't think it's helpful to be attacking anyone other than Russia right now. The eagerness with which some people are seizing upon this situation to attack Boris, Macron, the EU, Ukraine, Biden, NATO, etc. is a disturbing sign. It feels like arguing over whose deckchair is whose on the deck of a ship when we're at risk of hitting an iceberg.
    Lift your eyes up, people. If you think this crisis is useful ammunition in your longstanding grudge against [whoever], you're not seeing the big picture.

    Which is not to say there aren't valid criticisms to be made here, but most of the criticisms I see on here about this are low-energy partisan snipes by people who probably couldn't even point to Kyiv on a map.
    I'm definitely on your list of petulant sniping but then again most people are. Having a clown laughed at by the major powers as PM does not help us. Having smashed our armed forces does not help us. Isolating ourselves diplomatically by replacing big block membership with nothing does not help us.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,937

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    The US UK and Nato are all on the same page, pity France and Germany are not
    Strange. I could have sworn that France and Germany are Nato members.
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    How has Putin benefitted in Ukraine from the UK leaving the EU? Surely his position would have been better if the UK had been tied to an EU position by majority voting, rather than having us be a powerful and noisy force in NATO?
    Putin wants fragmentation. Drive wedges between the NATO members who are also EU members. The fall of the UK in terms of both military power and diplomatic reach weakens the rest of the EU, as does internal divisions over things like energy supplies.
    That's right. 'My enemy's enemy is my friend.'

    The UK became an enemy of the EU, which became weaker as a result.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    This is true, which is why over this I tend to think twice over dishing criticism too liberally over this issue. I think the UK has got it more right than Germany, but I don't think it's helpful to be attacking anyone other than Russia right now. The eagerness with which some people are seizing upon this situation to attack Boris, Macron, the EU, Ukraine, Biden, NATO, etc. is a disturbing sign. It feels like arguing over whose deckchair is whose on the deck of a ship when we're at risk of hitting an iceberg.
    Lift your eyes up, people. If you think this crisis is useful ammunition in your longstanding grudge against [whoever], you're not seeing the big picture.

    Which is not to say there aren't valid criticisms to be made here, but most of the criticisms I see on here about this are low-energy partisan snipes by people who probably couldn't even point to Kyiv on a map.
    We’d nevertheless be safer with a PM interested in more than his own self preservation.
    Again, not helpful

    I want Boris replaced but sniping at each other is not the best action at present and to be fair to Starmer he is very much supporting Boris on this
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,098
    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    But there is a pro-referendum majority at Holyrood now. So you are misleading on that.

    And you are also wrong on indiyref 1 being held on a generation basis. Where does it say that in the Edinburgh Agreement? As you have been asked very many times.
    Implicit in paragraph 30, since both sides were clear before the referendum that it was once in a generation.

    They look forward to a referendum that is legal and fair producing a decisive and respected outcome.

    The SNP have clearly broken this part of the agreement.
    They have not. Different parliament, electoral mandate asked for and given to then and the SGs, driven in large part by the lies of Cameron and Co during the refertendum (vote No to stay in the EU and all that).
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Carnyx said:

    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    But there is a pro-referendum majority at Holyrood now. So you are misleading on that.

    And you are also wrong on indiyref 1 being held on a generation basis. Where does it say that in the Edinburgh Agreement? As you have been asked very many times.
    Implicit in paragraph 30, since both sides were clear before the referendum that it was once in a generation.

    They look forward to a referendum that is legal and fair producing a decisive and respected outcome.

    The SNP have clearly broken this part of the agreement.
    They have not. Different parliament, electoral mandate asked for and given to then and the SGs, driven in large part by the lies of Cameron and Co during the refertendum (vote No to stay in the EU and all that).
    A Scottish Parliament election cannot give a mandate for a referendum (or independence) as the constitution is a reserved matter.
  • Options
    Carnyx said:

    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    But there is a pro-referendum majority at Holyrood now. So you are misleading on that.

    And you are also wrong on indiyref 1 being held on a generation basis. Where does it say that in the Edinburgh Agreement? As you have been asked very many times.
    Implicit in paragraph 30, since both sides were clear before the referendum that it was once in a generation.

    They look forward to a referendum that is legal and fair producing a decisive and respected outcome.

    The SNP have clearly broken this part of the agreement.
    They have not. Different parliament, electoral mandate asked for and given to then and the SGs, driven in large part by the lies of Cameron and Co during the refertendum (vote No to stay in the EU and all that).
    You know when someone starts weasel wording ‘implicit’ into an argument that the game’s a bogey.
  • Options

    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    This is true, which is why over this I tend to think twice over dishing criticism too liberally over this issue. I think the UK has got it more right than Germany, but I don't think it's helpful to be attacking anyone other than Russia right now. The eagerness with which some people are seizing upon this situation to attack Boris, Macron, the EU, Ukraine, Biden, NATO, etc. is a disturbing sign. It feels like arguing over whose deckchair is whose on the deck of a ship when we're at risk of hitting an iceberg.
    Lift your eyes up, people. If you think this crisis is useful ammunition in your longstanding grudge against [whoever], you're not seeing the big picture.

    Which is not to say there aren't valid criticisms to be made here, but most of the criticisms I see on here about this are low-energy partisan snipes by people who probably couldn't even point to Kyiv on a map.
    I'm definitely on your list of petulant sniping but then again most people are. Having a clown laughed at by the major powers as PM does not help us. Having smashed our armed forces does not help us. Isolating ourselves diplomatically by replacing big block membership with nothing does not help us.
    I think on this most people are not

    It is far too serious and you look just full of angst largely over your perceived differences over brexit and maybe concern that within the EU, member states appreciate the lead the UK along with the US is giving as independent third countries

  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,121

    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    This is true, which is why over this I tend to think twice over dishing criticism too liberally over this issue. I think the UK has got it more right than Germany, but I don't think it's helpful to be attacking anyone other than Russia right now. The eagerness with which some people are seizing upon this situation to attack Boris, Macron, the EU, Ukraine, Biden, NATO, etc. is a disturbing sign. It feels like arguing over whose deckchair is whose on the deck of a ship when we're at risk of hitting an iceberg.
    Lift your eyes up, people. If you think this crisis is useful ammunition in your longstanding grudge against [whoever], you're not seeing the big picture.

    Which is not to say there aren't valid criticisms to be made here, but most of the criticisms I see on here about this are low-energy partisan snipes by people who probably couldn't even point to Kyiv on a map.
    I'm definitely on your list of petulant sniping but then again most people are. Having a clown laughed at by the major powers as PM does not help us. Having smashed our armed forces does not help us. Isolating ourselves diplomatically by replacing big block membership with nothing does not help us.
    Boris is obviously an unsuitable prime minister, but it's when people seek to blame him for this, or seek to accuse him of stoking this Ukraine situation to distract from domestic troubles, that's crossing the line I'm talking about.
    I want Boris gone YESTERDAY and I don't even give a shit if there's a war on, he needs to be out the door. But I'll not attack him for what he's innocent of. There are still a few things left that are wrong in the world that aren't the result of his oafing.
  • Options

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    The US UK and Nato are all on the same page, pity France and Germany are not
    Strange. I could have sworn that France and Germany are Nato members.
    They are and their stance on this is not on the same page
  • Options

    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    This is true, which is why over this I tend to think twice over dishing criticism too liberally over this issue. I think the UK has got it more right than Germany, but I don't think it's helpful to be attacking anyone other than Russia right now. The eagerness with which some people are seizing upon this situation to attack Boris, Macron, the EU, Ukraine, Biden, NATO, etc. is a disturbing sign. It feels like arguing over whose deckchair is whose on the deck of a ship when we're at risk of hitting an iceberg.
    Lift your eyes up, people. If you think this crisis is useful ammunition in your longstanding grudge against [whoever], you're not seeing the big picture.

    Which is not to say there aren't valid criticisms to be made here, but most of the criticisms I see on here about this are low-energy partisan snipes by people who probably couldn't even point to Kyiv on a map.
    I'm definitely on your list of petulant sniping but then again most people are. Having a clown laughed at by the major powers as PM does not help us. Having smashed our armed forces does not help us. Isolating ourselves diplomatically by replacing big block membership with nothing does not help us.
    I think on this most people are not

    It is far too serious and you look just full of angst largely over your perceived differences over brexit and maybe concern that within the EU, member states appreciate the lead the UK along with the US is giving as independent third countries

    Just checking, does describing Germany and France as ‘appeasing’ Russia count as petulant sniping?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,580
    edited February 2022
    LOL.

    Comedian whinging all over R4 PM about "Caulk" on Wordle.

    "No one would know it unless they were in the painter/decorator profession."

    (plainspeaking)
    No, dear, it is not known to people who sit on their bottoms and are rich enough to pay interior designers and tradespeople to decorate their houses. It costs £1.12 a tube in B&Q.
    (/plainspeaking)
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,102
    edited February 2022

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    This is true, which is why over this I tend to think twice over dishing criticism too liberally over this issue. I think the UK has got it more right than Germany, but I don't think it's helpful to be attacking anyone other than Russia right now. The eagerness with which some people are seizing upon this situation to attack Boris, Macron, the EU, Ukraine, Biden, NATO, etc. is a disturbing sign. It feels like arguing over whose deckchair is whose on the deck of a ship when we're at risk of hitting an iceberg.
    Lift your eyes up, people. If you think this crisis is useful ammunition in your longstanding grudge against [whoever], you're not seeing the big picture.

    Which is not to say there aren't valid criticisms to be made here, but most of the criticisms I see on here about this are low-energy partisan snipes by people who probably couldn't even point to Kyiv on a map.
    We’d nevertheless be safer with a PM interested in more than his own self preservation.
    Again, not helpful

    I want Boris replaced but sniping at each other is not the best action at present and to be fair to Starmer he is very much supporting Boris on this
    You are clearly more relaxed about our country being represented on the international stage by this dishonest narcissistic numpty than I am. But then you actually voted for him (despite warning us for months about his weaknesses), whereas I did not.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,774
    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    This is true, which is why over this I tend to think twice over dishing criticism too liberally over this issue. I think the UK has got it more right than Germany, but I don't think it's helpful to be attacking anyone other than Russia right now. The eagerness with which some people are seizing upon this situation to attack Boris, Macron, the EU, Ukraine, Biden, NATO, etc. is a disturbing sign. It feels like arguing over whose deckchair is whose on the deck of a ship when we're at risk of hitting an iceberg.
    Lift your eyes up, people. If you think this crisis is useful ammunition in your longstanding grudge against [whoever], you're not seeing the big picture.

    Which is not to say there aren't valid criticisms to be made here, but most of the criticisms I see on here about this are low-energy partisan snipes by people who probably couldn't even point to Kyiv on a map.
    Hard to disagree with this analysis.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,121
    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    But there is a pro-referendum majority at Holyrood now. So you are misleading on that.

    And you are also wrong on indiyref 1 being held on a generation basis. Where does it say that in the Edinburgh Agreement? As you have been asked very many times.
    Implicit in paragraph 30, since both sides were clear before the referendum that it was once in a generation.

    They look forward to a referendum that is legal and fair producing a decisive and respected outcome.

    The SNP have clearly broken this part of the agreement.
    They have not. Different parliament, electoral mandate asked for and given to then and the SGs, driven in large part by the lies of Cameron and Co during the refertendum (vote No to stay in the EU and all that).
    A Scottish Parliament election cannot give a mandate for a referendum (or independence) as the constitution is a reserved matter.
    I want to ask a hypothetical.
    Suppose a vast majority of people in Scotland wanted independence. Let's say 75% in favour to make it totally unambiguous. What should happen?
  • Options

    Farooq said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
    Well, unanimity in sacrificing Ukraine will only mean that Putin moves onto the Baltics. Ask @Cicero....

    Unanimity is nice. But stopping people from re-drawing maps with guns is more important.

    If we are going to live in a world where re-drawing the maps with guns is cool, I have a list of territorial demands of my own.

    Don't worry - they are absolutely my last set of demands.
    If Putin’s design is to split us - like with how much money and resources Putin pumped into cheap gas pipelines and allegedly into securing Brexit vote he wanted, and now people as moderate and sensible as Big G are posting on here delighted we are split from EU allies, Putin’s useful idiots and traitors - straight away I’m not comfortable with that. We shouldn’t be should we? If What is ranged against him is weaker going forward?

    Are we not influencing France and Germany enough because we’ve brexited? Genuine question that and deserves more than insults when asked.
    Putin has spent a long time and a lot of money undermining western societies. Having us all fighting with each other is precisely what his money was trying to achieve.
    This is true, which is why over this I tend to think twice over dishing criticism too liberally over this issue. I think the UK has got it more right than Germany, but I don't think it's helpful to be attacking anyone other than Russia right now. The eagerness with which some people are seizing upon this situation to attack Boris, Macron, the EU, Ukraine, Biden, NATO, etc. is a disturbing sign. It feels like arguing over whose deckchair is whose on the deck of a ship when we're at risk of hitting an iceberg.
    Lift your eyes up, people. If you think this crisis is useful ammunition in your longstanding grudge against [whoever], you're not seeing the big picture.

    Which is not to say there aren't valid criticisms to be made here, but most of the criticisms I see on here about this are low-energy partisan snipes by people who probably couldn't even point to Kyiv on a map.
    I'm definitely on your list of petulant sniping but then again most people are. Having a clown laughed at by the major powers as PM does not help us. Having smashed our armed forces does not help us. Isolating ourselves diplomatically by replacing big block membership with nothing does not help us.
    I think on this most people are not

    It is far too serious and you look just full of angst largely over your perceived differences over brexit and maybe concern that within the EU, member states appreciate the lead the UK along with the US is giving as independent third countries

    Just checking, does describing Germany and France as ‘appeasing’ Russia count as petulant sniping?
    I would suggest the person best qualified to answer your question on this is the Ukraine president
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,258
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
    Cameron was not leading a Tory majority government in 2014, it was a coalition with the LDs. We now have a Tory majority government.

    The SNP had also won a Holyrood majority in 2011, there is no such SNP majority at Holyrood now.

    The 2014 referendum was held on the basis it would be a 'once in a generation referendum.' Any Tory PM who allowed an indyref2 referendum before such a generation elapsed and did a deal with the SNP would not be fit to serve and must be removed.

    But there is a pro-referendum majority at Holyrood now. So you are misleading on that.

    And you are also wrong on indiyref 1 being held on a generation basis. Where does it say that in the Edinburgh Agreement? As you have been asked very many times.
    Implicit in paragraph 30, since both sides were clear before the referendum that it was once in a generation.

    They look forward to a referendum that is legal and fair producing a decisive and respected outcome.

    The SNP have clearly broken this part of the agreement.
    They have not. Different parliament, electoral mandate asked for and given to then and the SGs, driven in large part by the lies of Cameron and Co during the refertendum (vote No to stay in the EU and all that).
    A Scottish Parliament election cannot give a mandate for a referendum (or independence) as the constitution is a reserved matter.
    I want to ask a hypothetical.
    Suppose a vast majority of people in Scotland wanted independence. Let's say 75% in favour to make it totally unambiguous. What should happen?
    Technically a majority Conservative UK government could refuse it even if 99% wanted it and independence.

    Though it might be a little more difficult practically to enforce that than the roughly 50% for 50% against in Scotland now
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,546
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