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The Davey-Starmer “pact” is bad news for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Foxy said:

    France, Odoxa poll:

    Presidential election

    Macron (LREM-RE): 24.5% (+0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 18% (+1)
    Zemmour (REC-NI): 14% (+2)
    Pécresse (LR-EPP): 12% (-7)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10% (+1)


    +/- vs. 7-9 Dec.

    Fieldwork: 15-16 Feb. 2022
    Sample size: 1,357

    Shocker for Pécresse


    Looks like Macron is probably home and dry with Le Pen getting into the 2nd round.

    Anything happened for voters to dump Pêcresse?
    Polls still a bit unclear though Le Pen is edging ahead - one in the last 3 days showed Pecresse ahead of her:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election

    Objectively I've felt for some time that one of the far-right candidates was likely to "win" their argument and get votes to outpace Pecresse.
    Why not the pure juice of the grape?

    Macron (like the Tories in England, and SNP in Scotland) is well served by a split opposition.
    Yes. The French Right seem to put ideological purity above any prospect of winning these days. They could even give the UK left some lessons.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    I’m not sure how the FIA can sack Masi and still justify that farce of a last lap and the resultant outcome.

    It's a bit like that wanker Thierry Henry, he blatantly cheated and won the match for his side and there was no real punishment.
    Maradona. When I first started to realise the world was unfair. I honestly expected the game to be annulled or replayed. By Lampard in 2010 I knew better...
    The Maradona thing was really about poor refereeing.

    The ref has spoken about it quite a bit and is in fact quite chippy about it. He felt the assistant to his right should have flagged. The assistant however reckons FIFA had given all assistants instructions not to overrule refs. This kind of implies he had his doubts about the decision but chose not to intervene.

    The error stemmed from the ref being poorly positioned. I know it was a hot day but the move developed slowly and a good ref would have been up by the corner of the penalty area on the opposite side to the assistant. It would then have been virtually impossible to miss the offence from there. Instead he was about twenty yards behind the play with a poor angle. I'm sure he didn't see it and it was only when Shilton protested that he glanced at the assistant, who was taking his lead from the ref and already running back to the half-way line, as he would when a goal is scored.

    Personally I wouldn't attach much blame to Maradona. I've seen plenty of strikers do exactly what he did. It's not a difficult one for a ref to spot and this was the only time I ever saw one miss it. I'm sure Maradona fully expected it to be ruled out but when it wasn't you can hardly blame him for not fessing up. At least he admitted it later. As far as I'm aware, FIFA never apologised. Their instructions to assistants played a part in the mistake, but not as big a part as the ref, who was simply not up to the job.
    Terry Butcher says that both he and Maradona were called in for a drugs test and Butcher looked at him and pointed at his head and then his hand (asking Maradona what it had gone in off) and Maradona pointed at his head. Butcher said that had he said hand he'd have beaten him up there and then.
    Lol! Yes, I can understand why M kept quiet about it, for a bit anyway.

    Still, we got see one of the greatest goals of all time a few minutes after the Hand of God goal.
    Thankfully I wasn't born so didn't go through that trauma. And I wasn't quite old enough when the ref didn't send of Ronald Koeman in Rotterdam in 1993 (the single worst refereeing decision of all time).
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    Carnyx said:

    SNP MSP proves Sarah Smith’s point:

    AN SNP politician was criticised for mocking the BBC’s ex Scotland editor for hitting out at the “bile, hatred and misogyny” of Scottish politics.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/politics/8445427/snp-james-dornan-bbc-sarah-smith/

    *Nippy must condemn*
    Well, all parties have members who do them more harm than good. Dornan is a repeat offender and "Nippy" would be well advised to ensure he gracefully retires at the next election.

    There is a more serious reason too. The "fear and loathing" that seems to be ever more a part of Scottish politics, ultimately, is unhelpful to the SNP as it turns most voters off the idea of going through another referendum. Fortunately for Unionists the denser Nats don't seem to understand this.
    Being a sexist today I see. Highly misogynist language.
    Curious comment. If it's "Nippy" you're referring to, it was just a carry over from the previous comment from your mate @Theuniondivvie who ironically referred to NS with that term, as did I. Unless, of course, your comment is meant to be taken ironically too. Tho' let's face it, there is little room for irony in Scottish political discourse.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    Two points: as has often bee said, the left and right extremes can seem very similar - which is why anti-Semitism is rife in both. However, only the mainstream left seem to coddle their political extremes so much. For instance, why Corbyn was tolerated as an MP, let alone as leader.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    IanB2 said:

    The bigger problem arises in seats where Labour has taken second place in the post-coalition period yet by any objective measure are most unlikely (aka impossible) to win the seat, whereas in a good year the LibDems might. The North Shropshire situation comes to mind, although in a GE that particular seat would have been beyond a long shot for either main party. But there are others, particularly in the SW, which in a good year the LibDems ought to be able to recover from third place.

    That's under my heading of "where it's genuinely close as in 2015 there, both parties are going to try to play the tactical card". I think it's asking too much of human nature for parties in or very close to second place to simply give up and run a paper candidacy - it really won't happen in a GE. We have to accept that there are a few seats like Portsmouth South 2017 where both parties will do their best and the voters will sort it, without the national parties getting too upset about it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Come on Vlad. Either dance or quit the disco


    Enough
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    SNP MSP proves Sarah Smith’s point:

    AN SNP politician was criticised for mocking the BBC’s ex Scotland editor for hitting out at the “bile, hatred and misogyny” of Scottish politics.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/politics/8445427/snp-james-dornan-bbc-sarah-smith/

    *Nippy must condemn*
    Well, all parties have members who do them more harm than good. Dornan is a repeat offender and "Nippy" would be well advised to ensure he gracefully retires at the next election.

    There is a more serious reason too. The "fear and loathing" that seems to be ever more a part of Scottish politics, ultimately, is unhelpful to the SNP as it turns most voters off the idea of going through another referendum. Fortunately for Unionists the denser Nats don't seem to understand this.
    Ah, now I know why Unionists shat (literally in some cases) all over the centre of Glasgow twice in the space of 2 months, it was to turn most voters off the idea of going through another referendum. Cunning chaps they are..
    The Council seems to have doubled-down on that performance by allowing the place to become a rat-infested midden judging by what I read, however.

    https://news.stv.tv/west-central/susan-aitken-i-take-absolute-responsibility-for-services-in-glasgow
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
  • SNP MSP proves Sarah Smith’s point:

    AN SNP politician was criticised for mocking the BBC’s ex Scotland editor for hitting out at the “bile, hatred and misogyny” of Scottish politics.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/politics/8445427/snp-james-dornan-bbc-sarah-smith/

    *Nippy must condemn*
    Well, all parties have members who do them more harm than good. Dornan is a repeat offender and "Nippy" would be well advised to ensure he gracefully retires at the next election.

    There is a more serious reason too. The "fear and loathing" that seems to be ever more a part of Scottish politics, ultimately, is unhelpful to the SNP as it turns most voters off the idea of going through another referendum. Fortunately for Unionists the denser Nats don't seem to understand this.
    Ah, now I know why Unionists shat (literally in some cases) all over the centre of Glasgow twice in the space of 2 months, it was to turn most voters off the idea of going through another referendum. Cunning chaps they are..
    The Council seems to have doubled-down on that performance by allowing the place to become a rat-infested midden judging by what I read, however.

    https://news.stv.tv/west-central/susan-aitken-i-take-absolute-responsibility-for-services-in-glasgow
    'judging by what I read'

    Lol, only the most objective and factual analysis I'm sure.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Leon said:

    Come on Vlad. Either dance or quit the disco


    Enough

    I prefer 'Shit or get off the pot'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    Two points: as has often bee said, the left and right extremes can seem very similar - which is why anti-Semitism is rife in both. However, only the mainstream left seem to coddle their political extremes so much. For instance, why Corbyn was tolerated as an MP, let alone as leader.
    Diane Abbott is still a member of good standing in the PLP despite coming out with flat out racism on multiple occasions.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    edited February 2022
    tlg86 said:

    edb said:

    I still don't understand why Poll got so much stick for such a simple administrative oversight. Embarrassing, sure, but if he'd gone for a final warning instead of 2nd yellow (entirely within his discretion) noone would even have noticed. Plus none of the many assistants and technicians thought to mention it at the time.

    Whilst I agree that his assistants offered him no help, that might have been his own fault. I know some refs tell their assistants to "stick to throw-ins and offsides" and Poll was a bit of an idiot.
    The relationship between ref and assistants has always been a tricky one.

    Whilst many refs tell their assistants that they have 'full authority' to make decisions, however big and controversial, in practise a lot dislike being upstaged and are apt to give the assistant grief when considered 'too assertive'.

    This demarcation issue now also rears its head with VAR. On-field refs are very wary of contradicting the video ref, even when the original decison was plainly correct, as it was I think with Kevin Friend the other day.

    Students of the way the FA runs football will of course be not the least bit surprised to see the way it takes the finest modern technology and applies it in a way that makes the game worse. Anybody who has any direct hands on experience of the FA will know what I'm talking about.

    Incidentally, this includes OGH. I understand he too was once an official ref. No doubt it's that experience that enables him to keep you lot in order so well.
  • Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    It’s true. Both sides would have to hold their noses. But are you ruling out realpolitik born out of ambition completely?

    PS this is actually on topic!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    It’s true. Both sides would have to hold their noses. But are you ruling out realpolitik born out of ambition completely?

    PS this is actually on topic!
    I would go so far as to prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour as a Tory member than do any deal with the SNP.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    I just asked President Zelensky whether Ukraine would be ready to compromise its ambition of joining Nato, given the high tensions. He told me: Ukraine needs security guarantees. Nato is ours. Our guarantee of not losing our independence.

    https://twitter.com/sarahrainsford/status/1494248892115918848
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I’m not sure how the FIA can sack Masi and still justify that farce of a last lap and the resultant outcome.

    It's a bit like that wanker Thierry Henry, he blatantly cheated and won the match for his side and there was no real punishment.
    Maradona. When I first started to realise the world was unfair. I honestly expected the game to be annulled or replayed. By Lampard in 2010 I knew better...
    The Maradona thing was really about poor refereeing.

    The ref has spoken about it quite a bit and is in fact quite chippy about it. He felt the assistant to his right should have flagged. The assistant however reckons FIFA had given all assistants instructions not to overrule refs. This kind of implies he had his doubts about the decision but chose not to intervene.

    The error stemmed from the ref being poorly positioned. I know it was a hot day but the move developed slowly and a good ref would have been up by the corner of the penalty area on the opposite side to the assistant. It would then have been virtually impossible to miss the offence from there. Instead he was about twenty yards behind the play with a poor angle. I'm sure he didn't see it and it was only when Shilton protested that he glanced at the assistant, who was taking his lead from the ref and already running back to the half-way line, as he would when a goal is scored.

    Personally I wouldn't attach much blame to Maradona. I've seen plenty of strikers do exactly what he did. It's not a difficult one for a ref to spot and this was the only time I ever saw one miss it. I'm sure Maradona fully expected it to be ruled out but when it wasn't you can hardly blame him for not fessing up. At least he admitted it later. As far as I'm aware, FIFA never apologised. Their instructions to assistants played a part in the mistake, but not as big a part as the ref, who was simply not up to the job.
    Terry Butcher says that both he and Maradona were called in for a drugs test and Butcher looked at him and pointed at his head and then his hand (asking Maradona what it had gone in off) and Maradona pointed at his head. Butcher said that had he said hand he'd have beaten him up there and then.
    Lol! Yes, I can understand why M kept quiet about it, for a bit anyway.

    Still, we got see one of the greatest goals of all time a few minutes after the Hand of God goal.
    Thankfully I wasn't born so didn't go through that trauma. And I wasn't quite old enough when the ref didn't send of Ronald Koeman in Rotterdam in 1993 (the single worst refereeing decision of all time).
    Oh, that was very different. It was simply crooked, no ifs or buts.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited February 2022

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    (DELETED. FAR TOO INAPPROPRIATE)
  • Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    I hope they've gamed Putin's reaction to that correctly!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited February 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Weather oop north leading the One O'clock news.

    I currently have a mix of sun and diagonal rain.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Leon said:

    Come on Vlad. Either dance or quit the disco


    Enough

    From his point of view, why?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    Two points: as has often bee said, the left and right extremes can seem very similar - which is why anti-Semitism is rife in both. However, only the mainstream left seem to coddle their political extremes so much. For instance, why Corbyn was tolerated as an MP, let alone as leader.
    Diane Abbott is still a member of good standing in the PLP despite coming out with flat out racism on multiple occasions.
    Can we have some examples of this racism, please?
    Here's a classic:
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12029702.abbott-denies-attack-on-nurses-was-racist/
  • US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III says Russia army have stocked up blood supplies.

  • Has twitter gone down/been hacked?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    How does Starmer respond at PMQs when Boris declares his victory over Putin for all the swift help he gave Ukraine? 🤔
  • Leon said:

    Come on Vlad. Either dance or quit the disco


    Enough

    From his point of view, why?
    I for one would certainly rather he sits on the border for months than starts any fighting.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    Two points: as has often bee said, the left and right extremes can seem very similar - which is why anti-Semitism is rife in both. However, only the mainstream left seem to coddle their political extremes so much. For instance, why Corbyn was tolerated as an MP, let alone as leader.
    Diane Abbott is still a member of good standing in the PLP despite coming out with flat out racism on multiple occasions.
    Can we have some examples of this racism, please?
    Here you go:
    https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/diane-abbott-in-racist-jibe-storm-7304601.html

    A Labour Party source said: "We disagree with Diane's tweet. It's wrong to make sweeping generalisations about any race, creed or culture.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited February 2022

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    It’s true. Both sides would have to hold their noses. But are you ruling out realpolitik born out of ambition completely?

    PS this is actually on topic!
    I think it would have to be a much more centrist Tory party anyway rather than the current Johnson Party anyway.

    And even then you'd probably have enough rebels on the Tory benches to join up with Labour and LD MPs and DUP going all Unionist at Westminster. So the numbers don't stack up.

    I don't suppose it helps that Mr J couldn't be bothered to meet up with, let alone be photographed with, Mr Ross and the Scons on his seagull type visit to Scotland earlier this week.

    What's slightly odd about HYUFD getting all precious however is that the Scottish Tories have often enough voted through SNP measures at Holyrood in return for getting some of what they wanted - for instance increasing the number of police on the beat at the same time as UKG were cutting it for England [I think that was Annabel Goldie in Edin and the Coalition in Whitehall, if memory serves, but might be wrong]. And on other times the Greens, LDs etc. But not often Slab, who [edit] certainly had the Bain Principle of never voting for a SNP bill even if it is what Labour want in the first place.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited February 2022

    Angie will be really getting her more reactionary fans horny.




    That's an odd post referring to the shooting of British Citizens, with an example of a non citizen being tragically shot. Why not stick with her supporting the gunning down of anyone?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    I’m not sure how the FIA can sack Masi and still justify that farce of a last lap and the resultant outcome.

    It's a bit like that wanker Thierry Henry, he blatantly cheated and won the match for his side and there was no real punishment.
    Maradona. When I first started to realise the world was unfair. I honestly expected the game to be annulled or replayed. By Lampard in 2010 I knew better...
    The Maradona thing was really about poor refereeing.

    The ref has spoken about it quite a bit and is in fact quite chippy about it. He felt the assistant to his right should have flagged. The assistant however reckons FIFA had given all assistants instructions not to overrule refs. This kind of implies he had his doubts about the decision but chose not to intervene.
    What is the point of an assistant if not to jump in and correct the ref?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edb said:

    I still don't understand why Poll got so much stick for such a simple administrative oversight. Embarrassing, sure, but if he'd gone for a final warning instead of 2nd yellow (entirely within his discretion) noone would even have noticed. Plus none of the many assistants and technicians thought to mention it at the time.

    I imagine he gets stick because it's funny and it's very easy to go 'What, you couldn't count to two?'
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Farooq said:

    Mr. Farooq, aye, it'd be much better with fewer appointees and more hereditaries.

    It would be better if we could get rid of people who are in there. At the moment the process is
    1. Wait
    2. Keep waiting
    3. Go to 2.
    I'm a bit more relaxed about the sheer numbers, as they add little cost due to day payments and I like the idea of expert contributors as discussed the other day.

    I think some change is needed wrt crooks who stay around, and the 'stand down temporarily and come back later' rules are very questionable.

    There have actually been quite a number of retirements / resignations - 146 since the latest legislation came in in 2014.

    http://www.peerages.info/peeragesd.htm

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    How does Starmer respond at PMQs when Boris declares his victory over Putin for all the swift help he gave Ukraine? 🤔
    Polish Guarantee following Cancelled Czechs.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    True - but listen to the narrative that the Stop The War type are selling

    - Ukrainians are all fascists
    - Massacres in 1943 justify Russia invading today
    - etc etc

    Its the same arguments as were used to justify the Serbs....

    it's like mould. Keeps growing back.
    To be honest though, as I read through the link to 1943 Poet Laureate posted yesterday, I felt like I didn’t like Ukrainian nationalists. It wasn’t that they were fighting, there was no justification for the crime of ethnic cleansing 😕

    Being very honest here, it had coloured my views when todays Ukraine nationalists came on the news afterwards. And I’m not even Polish.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    That is interesting. Shouldn't we help them take back Crimea then though?
  • Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Leon said:

    Come on Vlad. Either dance or quit the disco


    Enough

    From his point of view, why?
    The fun he gets from the West getting in a flap about him threatening invasion (whilst pretending he is not threatening it) surely has a limited amount of usefulness? He wants something concrete.
  • Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    How does Starmer respond at PMQs when Boris declares his victory over Putin for all the swift help he gave Ukraine? 🤔
    A lot more easily than Corbyn ever could have done - Labour haven't put a foot wrong on this so far.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    (DELETED. FAR TOO INAPPROPRIATE)
    Jesus, what on earth could that have been?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    Phew.

    It's all getting a bit hairy isn't it?

    My assumption in this is that Russia wants the Eastern provinces of Poland to become independent (Russian client) states, and that those people who are inclined to support "the West" are effectively forced to leave their homes and head into rump Ukraine.

    In addition, I think he wants rump Ukraine to abandon all ambitions to join NATO and/or the EU, and to recognise that it is inside Russia's sphere of influence.

    Can Russia achieve this? Well, the first part certainly, but potentially at very high cost. Although Russia's armed forced are pretty good, invasions of well prepared enemies are far from risk-less.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    Weather oop north leading the One O'clock news.

    I currently have a mix of sun and diagonal rain.
    Also known as early spring weather.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    It’s true. Both sides would have to hold their noses. But are you ruling out realpolitik born out of ambition completely?

    PS this is actually on topic!
    I would go so far as to prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour as a Tory member than do any deal with the SNP.

    Would that Balkanise the Tory Party in Parliament more than is already the case?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    A very wet and slushy day in Tallinn. Main news here is a far right figure, connected to the Estonian Conservative People´s Party (EKRE) has suggested that Estonia would be "fine" under Russian rule. As you jmight expect this has gone down very badly and raised questions about where the far right get their funding from. It will probably hurt the support of the rather anti vax/Trumpian EKRE, which had a small lead in the polls hitherto. Across the rest of the poltical spectrum, (i.e. not Nutters/Traitors) support for Ukraine is very strong. There was hope that the Russian withdrawal was going ahead, and some suprise that the US/UK were insisting that the Russian build up was continuing. The Putin playbook may be going ahead, but from here it almost seems that Russia is sliding into a war that it is not actually ready for, I dont think it is the case, but sometimes that the Kremlin seems determined to go in, even if the invasion is a disaster, which many here now think it could be. So, we are at the most dangerous time over the next few days, and it is by no means clear what will happen next, but Putin is seems to be in deep trouble with his own high command, and some are suggesting that may be trying to keep troops in Ukraine in order to avoid some kind of a military coup in Moscow. The further persecution of Navalny is raising Cain with many ordinary Russians, so it is a period of great danger for the regime. Some are suggesting that he wants to go out in a blaze of glory. None of this is good news. Let us hope that cooler calculations prevail in the Kremlin.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    Weather oop north leading the One O'clock news.

    I currently have a mix of sun and diagonal rain.
    Also known as early spring weather.
    No - rather heavier rain and more windy than that.

    Though I am very close to the highest point in Nottinghamshire. Used to live up the road on a ridge that was like a wind machine.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    It’s true. Both sides would have to hold their noses. But are you ruling out realpolitik born out of ambition completely?

    PS this is actually on topic!
    I would go so far as to prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour as a Tory member than do any deal with the SNP.

    Would that Balkanise the Tory Party in Parliament more than is already the case?
    Academic, given that there's no prospect of either Labour or the SNP wanting to have anything to do with the Conservatives under any likely circumstances.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    rcs1000 said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    Phew.

    It's all getting a bit hairy isn't it?

    My assumption in this is that Russia wants the Eastern provinces of Poland to become independent (Russian client) states, and that those people who are inclined to support "the West" are effectively forced to leave their homes and head into rump Ukraine.

    In addition, I think he wants rump Ukraine to abandon all ambitions to join NATO and/or the EU, and to recognise that it is inside Russia's sphere of influence.

    Can Russia achieve this? Well, the first part certainly, but potentially at very high cost. Although Russia's armed forced are pretty good, invasions of well prepared enemies are far from risk-less.
    I don't know, it all seems pretty counter productive to me - Ukraine surely was not getting admitted to NATO anyway since NATO wants a member which has had its territory already siezed by Russia like it wants a hole in the head, but the more Russia demands to be able to veto it joining, or Ukraine to promise not to join, the less either will be inclined to officially give him what he demands.

    Similarly, I am sure the EU could keep Ukraine stringing along for decades even without any other concerns about meeting accession requirements (Turkey's example doesn't really count as they clearly no longer wish to join) for the same reason. But being friendly as a way to annoy Russia is easy.
  • Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Did she tell the Americans before announcing this?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    How does Starmer respond at PMQs when Boris declares his victory over Putin for all the swift help he gave Ukraine? 🤔
    A lot more easily than Corbyn ever could have done - Labour haven't put a foot wrong on this so far.
    Corbynski was denouncing the 'build up of NATO forces in Ukraine' on his STW meeting. One of several foundations to his view that was entirely fictional.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    What about Tory pacts with other parties to maintain power? They need to lose lot more than 47?

    The only viable coalition partner for the Conservatives is the DUP.
    The DUP are highly unlikely to win more than 10 seats, so the Conservatives can't fall below 312.

    I seriously doubt any other party would consider a coalition with the Conservatives, certainly none would consider it under a Johnson-led Conservative party.

    The Lib Dems clearly have history, but I can't see them picking the Conservatives. In 2010, the momentum was behind the Conservatives consigning Labour to the dustbin. If the situation is such that the Conservatives lose enough seats to be unable to form a majority even with the DUP, the momentum will be against them and I think the LDs will support Labour.
    Of course, this could, depending on the seats total and vote total, result in the Conservatives being the largest party both in terms of seats and votes, but losing power.

    But that's the system.

    Incidently, depending on the results, if Labour + LD aren't enough either, I can't see a Lab/LD/SNP alliance lasting long. We'd have to have another election within a couple of years (hurrah!).
    I agree with all the replies to me. I am playing a bit of devil’s advocate 😈
    Truth is though, there are plenty ifs and buts to kick around on this thread. Here’s a good one. Support can come in different ways, at its basic level support defeating LOTO vonc and support to pass budget in return to for certain bit of legislation put to Parliament? So the Scot Nats give that basic support in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    Puts on tin hat and expects plenty NEVER NEVER NEVER in Scottish, and Swedish, tone 🙂
    Far too quiet… did I need to insert the word Torys? Okay -

    So the Scot Nats give that basic support TO THE TORIES in return for an independence referendum they are not going to get from alternative government. Even that promise can come with sweeteners, like choose your own wording?
    🤔 not much of a rush to deny a soul equates to 40 pieces of silver and legislation for a referendum.
    I think it's seen not so much as 30 (not 40) 5p bits but more as the Temptation by Satan. But equally even Tories have their standards, from their point of view. Can you ever see Mr Johnson ever allowing a referendum? He'd have to do some work and to keep his tongue under total control.
    I would support a VONC in any Tory leader and PM who allowed an indyref2, as I expect would most Tory MPs and members.

    If the only way a Tory government can stay in power is with SNP support we should go into opposition. There is zero chance the SNP would do a deal with the Tories anyway
    But you didn’t vonc Cameron, and he did it?
  • Twitter outage.

    Coincidence?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    MattW said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    How does Starmer respond at PMQs when Boris declares his victory over Putin for all the swift help he gave Ukraine? 🤔
    A lot more easily than Corbyn ever could have done - Labour haven't put a foot wrong on this so far.
    Corbynski was denouncing the 'build up of NATO forces in Ukraine' on his STW meeting. One of several foundations to his view that was entirely fictional.
    Keir had it right

    the likes of the Stop the War coalition are not benign voices for peace. At best they are naive; at worst they actively give succour to authoritarian leaders who directly threaten democracies. There is nothing progressive in showing solidarity with the aggressor when our allies need our solidarity and – crucially – our practical assistance, now more than ever... Any equating of the right of a sovereign nation to determine its own future, even to exist, and the vicious aggression of a neighbour is an intellectual sham. To do so is not merely misguided: it is morally wrong
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Twitter outage.

    Coincidence?

    It's hardly an outage - some functionality isn't working but other bits are working.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    rcs1000 said:



    My assumption in this is that Russia wants the Eastern provinces of Poland to become independent (Russian client) states, and that those people who are inclined to support "the West" are effectively forced to leave their homes and head into rump Ukraine.

    I presume you mean Ukraine here? Eastern provinces of Poland would make things very interesting if Putin got that to happen, because I think all 'eastern' parts of Poland are very ethnically Polish and I doubt Poland would give those up in any circumstances.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    I’m not sure how the FIA can sack Masi and still justify that farce of a last lap and the resultant outcome.

    It's a bit like that wanker Thierry Henry, he blatantly cheated and won the match for his side and there was no real punishment.
    Maradona. When I first started to realise the world was unfair. I honestly expected the game to be annulled or replayed. By Lampard in 2010 I knew better...
    The Maradona thing was really about poor refereeing.

    The ref has spoken about it quite a bit and is in fact quite chippy about it. He felt the assistant to his right should have flagged. The assistant however reckons FIFA had given all assistants instructions not to overrule refs. This kind of implies he had his doubts about the decision but chose not to intervene.
    What is the point of an assistant if not to jump in and correct the ref?
    I don't think FIFA would give that instruction today. Its referees have improved out of all recognition, not least due to the wonderful influence of Pierluigi Collina.

    The assistant is there to help the ref and would only normally jump in if he thinks the ref has missed something. If the ref is in a position to see something but doesn't give it, you would not normally 'jump in' because you could safely assume he had a good reason. If you think he just didn't see it though you'd be expected to flag.

    That's why the 'Maradona' ref doesn't have a leg to stand on. If he had any doubt, he could have gone over and asked the assistant. I think he would have got the right answer then. Instead, the assistant just followed (bad) FIFA instructions, assuming the ref had seen it clearly enough to make his own mind up.
  • Twitter outage.

    Coincidence?

    Fine for me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2022
    INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: We have seen no evidence that Russian forces are withdrawing from Ukrainian border regions.

    Russia retains a significant military presence that can conduct an invasion without further warning.


    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1494344646864031758

    Video pulls no punches.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited February 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    Phew.

    It's all getting a bit hairy isn't it?

    My assumption in this is that Russia wants the Eastern provinces of Poland to become independent (Russian client) states, and that those people who are inclined to support "the West" are effectively forced to leave their homes and head into rump Ukraine.

    In addition, I think he wants rump Ukraine to abandon all ambitions to join NATO and/or the EU, and to recognise that it is inside Russia's sphere of influence.

    Can Russia achieve this? Well, the first part certainly, but potentially at very high cost. Although Russia's armed forced are pretty good, invasions of well prepared enemies are far from risk-less.
    I thought this one had been in the works for a few weeks, as a bridge whilst Ukraine gets more ready for further tightening NATO and EU relationships. The initial thing with Ukraine was last October.

    NO defence commitments - more the bases and ships, plus a desire to build trade.

    UK and Ukraine and Poland recently ratified the 'strategic partnerships' (I think that was the term) in their Parliaments.

    Obvs the Poland one also feeds into the evolving EU relationship for both. Eurotwitter was getting a bit excited trying to bracket the UK with "far right Governments", as is their habit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    True - but listen to the narrative that the Stop The War type are selling

    - Ukrainians are all fascists
    - Massacres in 1943 justify Russia invading today
    - etc etc

    Its the same arguments as were used to justify the Serbs....

    it's like mould. Keeps growing back.
    To be honest though, as I read through the link to 1943 Poet Laureate posted yesterday, I felt like I didn’t like Ukrainian nationalists. It wasn’t that they were fighting, there was no justification for the crime of ethnic cleansing 😕

    Being very honest here, it had coloured my views when todays Ukraine nationalists came on the news afterwards. And I’m not even Polish.
    Well, I've got Polish *and* Ukrainian ancestry. And Russian.

    The trick with this stuff is to start from the point of view that *everyone* is in the wrong, *historically*.

    This make it clear that wacking people over the head with clubs to "fix" historical wrongs will only produce more dead people.

    Then make *agreements* between the people actually alive today.

    Good Friday Agreement vs Srebrenica
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    True - but listen to the narrative that the Stop The War type are selling

    - Ukrainians are all fascists
    - Massacres in 1943 justify Russia invading today
    - etc etc

    Its the same arguments as were used to justify the Serbs....

    it's like mould. Keeps growing back.
    To be honest though, as I read through the link to 1943 Poet Laureate posted yesterday, I felt like I didn’t like Ukrainian nationalists. It wasn’t that they were fighting, there was no justification for the crime of ethnic cleansing 😕

    Being very honest here, it had coloured my views when todays Ukraine nationalists came on the news afterwards. And I’m not even Polish.
    I'm not that keen on Ukrainian nationalists either but you can understand why they may not be very enthusiastic about having their destinies decided by an ex-KGB operative like Putin - with a history like this:

    "The Holodomor also known as the Terror-Famine, or the Great Famine, was a famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians.... Since 2006, the Holodomor has been recognized by Ukraine and 15 other countries as a genocide of the Ukrainian people carried out by the Soviet government."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Come on Vlad. Either dance or quit the disco


    Enough

    From his point of view, why?
    The fun he gets from the West getting in a flap about him threatening invasion (whilst pretending he is not threatening it) surely has a limited amount of usefulness? He wants something concrete.
    You can’t rattle sabres without making some noise and drawing attention to yourself.

    EU won’t even discuss sanctions on a Russia whose invaded Ukraine in big meet today because it’s too “divisive”

    French and German leaders have gone to Ukraine, and in Ukraine urged them to surrender to Putin on the regional independence referendum.

    Also I presume manoeuvres on grand scale are great learning exercises, for if it comes to the real thing?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Cicero said:

    A very wet and slushy day in Tallinn. Main news here is a far right figure, connected to the Estonian Conservative People´s Party (EKRE) has suggested that Estonia would be "fine" under Russian rule. As you jmight expect this has gone down very badly and raised questions about where the far right get their funding from. It will probably hurt the support of the rather anti vax/Trumpian EKRE, which had a small lead in the polls hitherto. Across the rest of the poltical spectrum, (i.e. not Nutters/Traitors) support for Ukraine is very strong. There was hope that the Russian withdrawal was going ahead, and some suprise that the US/UK were insisting that the Russian build up was continuing. The Putin playbook may be going ahead, but from here it almost seems that Russia is sliding into a war that it is not actually ready for, I dont think it is the case, but sometimes that the Kremlin seems determined to go in, even if the invasion is a disaster, which many here now think it could be. So, we are at the most dangerous time over the next few days, and it is by no means clear what will happen next, but Putin is seems to be in deep trouble with his own high command, and some are suggesting that may be trying to keep troops in Ukraine in order to avoid some kind of a military coup in Moscow. The further persecution of Navalny is raising Cain with many ordinary Russians, so it is a period of great danger for the regime. Some are suggesting that he wants to go out in a blaze of glory. None of this is good news. Let us hope that cooler calculations prevail in the Kremlin.

    I don't think there is much chance of a coup, Putin is in a much safer position since he established the National Guard in 2016, essentially taking direct control of the interior ministry forces. That was interpreted as being a defence against any military coup. It would now take a civil war to get rid of Putin.
  • pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
  • pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited February 2022
    I was wondering if there was any synergy betweeh Russia's approach to geopolitics and sport.

    Do something wrong, face no real punishment for it, then 'compete' anyway with a bunch of unofficial participants whilst pretending they are not you because they don't wear the logo. For 'Russian Olympic Committee' read 'mercenaries/troops on holiday/separatists'/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2022
    Blinken outlined how Russian invasion would go down:
    1) drone strike/chem weapons/terrorist attack/claim of genocide - false flag attack
    2) theatrical emergency meetings in Moscow
    3) proclamation that it must defend Russians in Ukraine
    4) cyber attacks on key Ukrainian institutions
    5) missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine
    6) tanks and soldiers advance on key targets that have already been identified, including Kiev
    7) Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians

    Sharing all this at #UNSC, Blinken said, was an attempt to force Putin to choose another path

    #UkraineCrisis


    https://twitter.com/robcrilly/status/1494349650748493827
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    Two points: as has often bee said, the left and right extremes can seem very similar - which is why anti-Semitism is rife in both. However, only the mainstream left seem to coddle their political extremes so much. For instance, why Corbyn was tolerated as an MP, let alone as leader.
    Diane Abbott is still a member of good standing in the PLP despite coming out with flat out racism on multiple occasions.
    Can we have some examples of this racism, please?
    She delivers herself of something thought outrageous every few years.

    Whilst I was in London there was one about 'blonde haired, blue eyed Finnish nurses not being suitable for a local hospital as they had never met a black person before'.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/1999/mar/16/lucyward.guardianprofiles
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Because what you really want to look for at times of increased global threat is a way to make yourself look a bit better than your near neighbours and natural allies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    rcs1000 said:



    My assumption in this is that Russia wants the Eastern provinces of Poland to become independent (Russian client) states, and that those people who are inclined to support "the West" are effectively forced to leave their homes and head into rump Ukraine.

    I presume you mean Ukraine here? Eastern provinces of Poland would make things very interesting if Putin got that to happen, because I think all 'eastern' parts of Poland are very ethnically Polish and I doubt Poland would give those up in any circumstances.
    Quite right.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has arrived in Kyiv, she will make a speech and do a press conference this afternoon
    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1494297699159617539
    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1494284644384190465

    Peace in our time?
    She could have saved taxpayer pounds by standing on some steps at Heston Aerodrome.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    How does Starmer respond at PMQs when Boris declares his victory over Putin for all the swift help he gave Ukraine? 🤔
    A lot more easily than Corbyn ever could have done - Labour haven't put a foot wrong on this so far.
    Corbynski was denouncing the 'build up of NATO forces in Ukraine' on his STW meeting. One of several foundations to his view that was entirely fictional.
    Keir had it right

    the likes of the Stop the War coalition are not benign voices for peace. At best they are naive; at worst they actively give succour to authoritarian leaders who directly threaten democracies. There is nothing progressive in showing solidarity with the aggressor when our allies need our solidarity and – crucially – our practical assistance, now more than ever... Any equating of the right of a sovereign nation to determine its own future, even to exist, and the vicious aggression of a neighbour is an intellectual sham. To do so is not merely misguided: it is morally wrong
    I must admit, I'm warming to Keir.
  • pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    UK R

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited February 2022

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    True - but listen to the narrative that the Stop The War type are selling

    - Ukrainians are all fascists
    - Massacres in 1943 justify Russia invading today
    - etc etc

    Its the same arguments as were used to justify the Serbs....

    it's like mould. Keeps growing back.
    To be honest though, as I read through the link to 1943 Poet Laureate posted yesterday, I felt like I didn’t like Ukrainian nationalists. It wasn’t that they were fighting, there was no justification for the crime of ethnic cleansing 😕

    Being very honest here, it had coloured my views when todays Ukraine nationalists came on the news afterwards. And I’m not even Polish.
    I'm not that keen on Ukrainian nationalists either but you can understand why they may not be very enthusiastic about having their destinies decided by an ex-KGB operative like Putin - with a history like this:

    "The Holodomor also known as the Terror-Famine, or the Great Famine, was a famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians.... Since 2006, the Holodomor has been recognized by Ukraine and 15 other countries as a genocide of the Ukrainian people carried out by the Soviet government."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    True - but listen to the narrative that the Stop The War type are selling

    - Ukrainians are all fascists
    - Massacres in 1943 justify Russia invading today
    - etc etc

    Its the same arguments as were used to justify the Serbs....

    it's like mould. Keeps growing back.
    To be honest though, as I read through the link to 1943 Poet Laureate posted yesterday, I felt like I didn’t like Ukrainian nationalists. It wasn’t that they were fighting, there was no justification for the crime of ethnic cleansing 😕

    Being very honest here, it had coloured my views when todays Ukraine nationalists came on the news afterwards. And I’m not even Polish.
    Well, I've got Polish *and* Ukrainian ancestry. And Russian.

    The trick with this stuff is to start from the point of view that *everyone* is in the wrong, *historically*.

    This make it clear that wacking people over the head with clubs to "fix" historical wrongs will only produce more dead people.

    Then make *agreements* between the people actually alive today.

    Good Friday Agreement vs Srebrenica
    Doesn’t it want you both to stop and pray for them all to stop looking for the upper hand in which to kill one another over and over forever? ☹️

    It’s interesting you mention good Friday agreement that ended the troubles. So much of this news story echoes that to me, even though I was only about one, I know, just like Ukraine demand, there can’t be any convincing votes like for autonomy till the paramilitaries are gone. And Good Friday agreement nearly collapsed when Adam’s boasted “the IRA haven’t gone away you know”? So I agree with Ukrainians on that point.

    Also, when TV goes into all their houses and schools and grocery stores, they look so poor compared to London I have been out shopping in today and flat I have come back to! Doesn’t it make you feel you to want to pray for them to have more wealth, better schools and better hospitals?
  • pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
  • pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    POBSUK?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Case summary

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  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    Carnyx said:

    SNP MSP proves Sarah Smith’s point:

    AN SNP politician was criticised for mocking the BBC’s ex Scotland editor for hitting out at the “bile, hatred and misogyny” of Scottish politics.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/politics/8445427/snp-james-dornan-bbc-sarah-smith/

    *Nippy must condemn*
    Well, all parties have members who do them more harm than good. Dornan is a repeat offender and "Nippy" would be well advised to ensure he gracefully retires at the next election.

    There is a more serious reason too. The "fear and loathing" that seems to be ever more a part of Scottish politics, ultimately, is unhelpful to the SNP as it turns most voters off the idea of going through another referendum. Fortunately for Unionists the denser Nats don't seem to understand this.
    Being a sexist today I see. Highly misogynist language.
    Curious comment. If it's "Nippy" you're referring to, it was just a carry over from the previous comment from your mate @Theuniondivvie who ironically referred to NS with that term, as did I. Unless, of course, your comment is meant to be taken ironically too. Tho' let's face it, there is little room for irony in Scottish political discourse.
    BTW, looks the Artist formerly known as Nippy, has taken my advice and had a word with her confrere:

    https://twitter.com/glasgowcathcart/status/1494326975455850499

    "Language is important in this so I apologise for my earlier comments that made it seem as though I believed the abuse Sarah Smith has suffered was imaginary."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    UK hospitals

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    Deaths

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Did she tell the Americans before announcing this?
    Did she tell Johnson?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    COVID Summary

    - Cases still falling. Looks like R may be in the process of levelling off in England. Scotland still higher.
    - Hospital admissions down. R steady below 1.
    - MV beds down
    - In hospital down
    - Deaths down

    image
  • pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    1. Stand with them how? In solidarity as Russia invades and we do nothing? We aren't going to war with Russia, we aren't going to provide Ukraine with a supply of weapons to defend themselves with - so what is standing with them other than hot air?
    2. Are the Tories handing their millions back? They're complicit.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    Yes you have hit the nail on the head Big G. That’s the mental bit. We need to be standing, voicing and acting in Union on these things don’t we?
    Why is that mental?

    Or should we just offer Putin Schleswig-Holstein, for traditions sake?
    Because if his plan all along is to split - first making us gas junkies, then sabre rattling - where there is more impact us all acting as one against him, it means he’s winning. Do you see my point?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
  • pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    You talk more and more nonsense sadly and your bitterness over HMG is plain to see

    Maybe you should listen to the US and Nato itself and criticise France and Germany who are letting Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states down
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    True - but listen to the narrative that the Stop The War type are selling

    - Ukrainians are all fascists
    - Massacres in 1943 justify Russia invading today
    - etc etc

    Its the same arguments as were used to justify the Serbs....

    it's like mould. Keeps growing back.
    To be honest though, as I read through the link to 1943 Poet Laureate posted yesterday, I felt like I didn’t like Ukrainian nationalists. It wasn’t that they were fighting, there was no justification for the crime of ethnic cleansing 😕

    Being very honest here, it had coloured my views when todays Ukraine nationalists came on the news afterwards. And I’m not even Polish.
    I'm not that keen on Ukrainian nationalists either but you can understand why they may not be very enthusiastic about having their destinies decided by an ex-KGB operative like Putin - with a history like this:

    "The Holodomor also known as the Terror-Famine, or the Great Famine, was a famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians.... Since 2006, the Holodomor has been recognized by Ukraine and 15 other countries as a genocide of the Ukrainian people carried out by the Soviet government."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

    Mango said:

    glw said:

    Is it me, or is Social Media just s***.

    Liz Truss put up a serious post about Russia and Ukraine, and the replies are nothing but jibes attack and stupid jokes...

    It is sad to see so many essentially cheering on Russian games and misogyny because they don't like the Tories. You can dislike Truss without parroting the Kremlin.
    I've encountered Tankies who believe that since the West backed the non-Serbian sides in the Yugoslav Wars, that this meant the Serbs were justified in what they did.

    By justified, they use the "only x died at" excuse for this -

    image

    Once you have done full genocide denial, a bit of Putin snuggling must come easy.
    Ermm, quite a few of those genocide deniers are right wingers now. Aided by the LM/Spiked crew. New members of the Lords. Close (recently-resigned) advisers of Johnson. They are true vermin.

    But right wingers have been remarkably silent about them for a long time.
    True - but listen to the narrative that the Stop The War type are selling

    - Ukrainians are all fascists
    - Massacres in 1943 justify Russia invading today
    - etc etc

    Its the same arguments as were used to justify the Serbs....

    it's like mould. Keeps growing back.
    To be honest though, as I read through the link to 1943 Poet Laureate posted yesterday, I felt like I didn’t like Ukrainian nationalists. It wasn’t that they were fighting, there was no justification for the crime of ethnic cleansing 😕

    Being very honest here, it had coloured my views when todays Ukraine nationalists came on the news afterwards. And I’m not even Polish.
    Well, I've got Polish *and* Ukrainian ancestry. And Russian.

    The trick with this stuff is to start from the point of view that *everyone* is in the wrong, *historically*.

    This make it clear that wacking people over the head with clubs to "fix" historical wrongs will only produce more dead people.

    Then make *agreements* between the people actually alive today.

    Good Friday Agreement vs Srebrenica
    Doesn’t it want you both to stop and pray for them all to stop looking for the upper hand in which to kill one another over and over forever? ☹️

    It’s interesting you mention good Friday agreement that ended the troubles. So much of this news story echoes that to me, even though I was only about one, I know, just like Ukraine demand, there can’t be any convincing votes like for autonomy till the paramilitaries are gone. And Good Friday agreement nearly collapsed when Adam’s boasted “the IRA haven’t gone away you know”? So I agree with Ukrainians on that point.

    Also, when TV goes into all their houses and schools and grocery stores, they look so poor compared to London I have been out shopping in today and flat I have come back to! Doesn’t it make you feel you to want to pray for them to have more wealth, better schools and better hospitals?
    It makes me want to run a straight edged razor across Putin's throat, mostly.

    But..... It is very simple. Putin needs to stop making war, either by proxy or directly.

    "Doesn’t it want you both to stop and pray for them all to stop looking for the upper hand in which to kill one another over and over forever?" - the point is to stop. The Ukrainian government doesn't want "the upper hand" - whatever that might be - they simply want the Russians to stop invading Ukraine.

    The Good Friday Agreement didn't end the troubles. It froze them in place in the hope that by the time the fuckwits get bored with peace, a new generation will have forgotten about fuckwitism. There is little sign of that, actually.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    I don't believe scoring cheap political points against nations Mr Johnson would call "our friends" is helpful.

    There was a certain white flagged pragmatism from Germany yesterday which made some sense to me. Ukraine will retain more territory without an invasion than it will should Putin pull the trigger.

    Let's not even think about the potential civilian death toll.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    A defence alliance doesn't necessarily mean sending troops.

    The idea that simply confiscating some oligarchs money now is a "simple and painless" solution is, of course, insane.
    Simpler and less painful than a shooting war with Russia. Liar keeps ramping up our stand against Russia. Its a joke. His party is funded by Russia, and whats left of our armed forces would be quickly splatted in a shooting war with Russia.

    Again again, NATO is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine. So we need to drop the bluster that we might. Putin isn't that stupid to believe that...
    "His party is funded by Russia"

    Do you think every single Russian is an agent of the state?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    MISTY said:

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    UK standing with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States in a way France and Germany are not
    That's the European Union working, right there.

    Oh wait....
    Thing is, we were told the EU was on the fast track to become (or was already) a superstate, unified army, defence policy etc and therefore must GET OUT NOW!

    Turns out it is in fact (1) a collection of sovereign countries with their own defence policies and/or (2) too dysfunctional to come to a unified position which suggests it is either unwilling or unable (or both) to become that unified superstate.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    Do you have any more information on the final point? I'd only seen the announcement of closing the Tier 1 visas - do we have details of the much-promised sanctions etc? (I couldn't spot anything on a quick skim of news sites)
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited February 2022
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile where is @BartholomewRoberts these days. Very interested to read his higher wages and higher prices and higher wages is a good thing posts.
    .

    You’ll have noted that there was strong growth in real wages in 2021 being confirmed earlier this week? The increase in inflation since the beginning of the year has left wages behind temporarily but hopefully only for a few months.
    "hopefully" indeed. But where does the cycle end? Costs and therefore prices rise so wages rise and costs and prices rise and wages rise.

    This is good in your opinion? What are you some kind of pre-Thatcher era Union leader?
    The main cause of inflation now is that we put the cost of the pandemic on the QE tab 2 years ago. We have a bit of that to work through but my hope is that increasing wages will drive increased investment to boost productivity and the general standard of living.
    Blimey. You think that is going to happen. Now. When everyone is battered and businesses are having to pay more to get hitherto plentiful labour and raise prices just to stand still.

    You think amidst this there will be a boost to increase productivity and the general standard of living.

    At present price growth is outstripping wage growth. Once inflation takes hold then it is very difficult to get it out of the system. Better economists than you or I (and much better ones than @BartholomewRoberts) are praying that it will work its way through once energy price rises have worked their way through, etc.
    .
    The main problem since 2008 has been deflation not inflation. The price of oil fell 5% yesterday and gas even more. No doubt they will be back up again today given the latest shenanigans but there is a big war premium in the price right now.
    Yes of course, those rises are volatile and likely temporary. But if wages continue to go up then that will mean higher prices which leads to higher wages and that is not temporary; inflation becomes permanent or embedded and then we have a problem. And policy responses are equally problematic.
    I got a notification that I was tagged in this by @TOPPING . Sorry, I'm not online as much as I used to be anymore as I'm quite busy IRL so not spending as much time here.

    Wages going up is a good thing, so long as the wages are going up because of demand for the labour. Inflation for inflation's sake is a bad thing of course, but then wages aren't rising in real terms if that's all it is. Real wages rises are a good thing and David is entirely right that rising real wages leads to an increase in investment for productivity and it is productivity growth that makes us all better off.

    What we're seeing now is really still very moderate inflation. We're not talking Zimbabwean thousands of percent inflation, we're talking about inflation of ~5.5% as the highest inflation in thirty years. Yet as I've pointed out before house price inflation has averaged 6.2% for the first two decades of this century.

    So people are losing their minds and all perspective from inflation that is below inflation that we've been used to in recent decades. Its just that now prices are going up on things homeowners need to pay for and not just everyone else instead of them.
  • pigeon said:

    Breaking: Ukraine, the UK and Poland announce a creation of a trilateral alliance during the UK foreign secretary @trussliz visit to Kyiv. Countries will cooperate in the areas of defense, economy, trade and countering disinformation. More information to follow soon

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1494325742582128657

    We've done what? That's fucking mental.
    Is it? That rather depends on what the terms of the arrangement are.
    A defence alliance with a country on the verge of being invaded by Russia. So when that happens what are our obligations? To provide them with weapons? Or to defend them?

    The alternative is simple and painless - seize the assets of Russian oligarchs in the UK. Sadly as several Russian oligarchs are large donors of the Conservative Party, for some reason the government seems reluctant to engage with such a thing.
    Far better to stand with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States as we can do as a third country, and not the appeasement being offered by France and Germany to Russia due to their need for Russian gas

    And the closing of Russian money in the city has been announced today
    1. Stand with them how? In solidarity as Russia invades and we do nothing? We aren't going to war with Russia, we aren't going to provide Ukraine with a supply of weapons to defend themselves with - so what is standing with them other than hot air?
    2. Are the Tories handing their millions back? They're complicit.
    We already are supplying Ukraine with weapons so indicates you are not very knowledgeable on the subject
This discussion has been closed.