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The Midlands region Johnson exceptionalism continues – politicalbetting.com
The Midlands region Johnson exceptionalism continues – politicalbetting.com
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The Midlands region Johnson exceptionalism continues – politicalbetting.com
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I always love the summaries of the conversations between the leaders involved in the Russia-Ukraine stuff. Things like this, from the BBC article:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60370541
"On Sunday, President Zelensky spoke for nearly an hour by phone with US President Joe Biden. The White House said President Biden reiterated US support for Ukraine, and that both leaders had agreed on "the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence".
Hopefully they spent an hour talking about more constructive things than "we support you" and "we keep trying diplomacy".
No, you're an arse.
Your arse is so big they can see it from space.
But it doesn't smell as much as yours.
etc etc
Or anywhere else frankly.
Has anyone polled Uxbridge?
Go on, give us a clue: The temperature? Sea level?
2) Andy Street
Good luck Vlad taking this lot on.
Quagmire.
KYIV, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy invited U.S. President Joe Biden to visit Ukraine soon when they spoke by phone on Sunday, Zelenskiy's office said.
Tensions have been rising for weeks over Russia's troop build-up near Ukraine and Washington has said an invasion could happen anytime. Moscow denies planning one.
"I'm convinced that your arrival in Kyiv in the coming days, which are crucial for stabilising the situation, will be a powerful signal and contribute to de-escalation," the presidential office quoted Zelenskiy as telling Biden.
The White House declined to comment on the invitation.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-leader-invites-biden-visit-soon-2022-02-13/
Perhaps Zelenskiy's sang froid is not quite so froid.
Putin: Absolutely, let's have a 'meeting' in Kharkiv to 'discuss' it. I'll bring an honour guard with me, just 100k of them.
Is this an authorised kite being flown? A play for time? Or one person who is about to get slapped down by his bosses in Kiev?
Well, one thing rumoured to have been floated by the French & the Germans in talks with the Russians as a get out was exactly that, Ukraine wouldnt become part of NATO (Ben Wallace's appeasement quote therefore has some context). Thing is, Russia couldnt care less what either of them say, only two countries could make that suggestion and Russia be interested, Ukraine & the USA.
No evidence as yet either have suggested it. For the Ukrainian government to do so would cause all kinds of issues at home as for many its a concession that will only kick the can down the road, Russia will come back looking more. Zelensky, however, maybe he will blink, who knows.
Interesting too Starmer has only a narrow lead over Boris in London and Wales but little different from that in the South, the traditional Tory heartland. The fact Starmer's biggest lead over Boris is in Scotland is not a great help to him given the strength of the SNP there
It wasn’t too long ago we had a thread on Boris losing his lead in the midlands.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/13/dash-for-covid-exit-proves-political-virus-lbertarianism-rampant
He has a point that Johnson's policy decision seemed to be about nothing more than saving his skin and blindsided all established authorities. Will also seems keen to get back to normal. 'Like most I relish life opening up.' Or does he?
'while the new normal could never be the normal of pre-pandemic, it was still normal enough..... This dream is where the vast majority would love us to be. Personally, I delight in the escalating return to normality – dinners, lunches with colleagues, getting out and about much more freely – but I am watchful. On buses, trains and tubes, I take care to wear a mask and make sure, if I can, that I sit with others wearing them. I willingly wear a mask in shops, cinema, theatre or going around galleries. I keep my social distance. I enjoy the possibilities of Zoom, a working life organised around online slots, but saving time on travelling. If asked to take a lateral flow test before a large gathering, I happily comply. I live a life as normally as possible – but remain vigilant about the danger of contracting Covid. It’s how I expect to continue.'
Now he isn't clear if ontinue means indefinite future and it isn't clear whether he sees restrictions applying to men in their 70s like him or if we should all be doing this for ever and eternity. I wonder how Will would have felt in his youth if he had to comply with these impositions on a permanent basis? Over Christmas I was with with my brother and sister in law who have three young children. They aren't overly political people but like many are sick to death of covid. They worry about the impact on their children who've obviously been negatively affected by the pandemic. They were angry at the way those in authority seemed desperate to deny omicron was milder than delta in spite of the evidence to the contrary.
A few days ago I went to see a friend and his partner, both in their early 30s with no kids. I was quite taken aback that my friend had decided against travelling to London due to covid and had been urging his (70ish) mother to only go out once a week, citing no higher authority than Chris Whitty for his concern. His partner's 92 year old grandmother is also part of their close circle and the idea of passing covid on to her horrifies him.
I do get that. But what are we going to do? Live the rest of our lives as semi hermits at the behest of the very old and clinically vulnerable? It isn't entirely obvious that would be a very healthy strategy either. Getting infected with a mild variant of covid might help protect you against a nastier one that comes along later. People's general immunity could be weakening significantly.
One other thing is that it is disappointing to see a numerate fellow like Hutton fall for the 'models were wrong because people changed their behaviour' line. I'm sure less socialising slowed the spread of omicron but the only difference that should make to the modelling is that the cases and deaths are simply deferred. Yet it is clear that cases spiked and are on the way down as are deaths. Anyone who saw the case fatality ratio from South Africa fall through the floor should have been aware of that by Christmas. Voluntary measures do not indicate thousands of lives saved per day.
1. The Putin crisis is NOT about NATO, but about Putin retaining power
2. It is incumbent upon Putin and only Putin to back down
3. The costs of an escalated invasion of Ukraine will be devastating
https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1492684639261106176
Cost of living crisis - more inflation, tax rises & above all energy bills - will convulse politics just ahead of May local elections 1/4
https://mobile.twitter.com/LiamHalligan/status/1492963334550953987
https://www.waterstones.com/book/george-iii/andrew-roberts/9780241413333
That's a pretty common view, I think, talking to friends and colleagues, including much younger ones. But some people weight the pros and cons differently - I know one woman in her 20s who really hates masks and won't wear them anywhere, but is so averse to mingling with a group that she's giving up her job for one that she can do at home. But most people have reverted to normal socialising and reserve any caution for the un-fun things like travelling and supermarkets.
I don't see much harm in any of this - if we all do what we think best and don't tell each other off for doing something different, that's something we can keep up indefinitely. I don't think people should come in to work with Covid, but they shouldn't come in with flu either - death to presenteeism! I do notice that I've not had a cold or any other infectious disease since the pandemic started, and I wonder how much we pick up in "normal" life.
We would be in our 24 month of lockdown by now.
https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1493001417472319489?s=20&t=qW1S_ved7qaxE9wiQ-zk9Q
https://www.flightradar24.com/CHIEF11/2acfb49d
As far as Wales are concerned those figures are rubbish. I never hear positive Johnson comments, even from Tories.
https://www.flightradar24.com/CHIEF12/2acfb501
Currently heading south west......
https://www.flightradar24.com/2acfb975
https://www.flightradar24.com/TOW2230/2acfb438
https://www.flightradar24.com/RRR6811/2acf9aa3
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Bit of a bugger this evening…
People watch terrestrial television in your area?
I'm impressed I went from the third guess to the right answer
You may be right that the Conservatives take Erdington, but I would be more than surprised.
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Something has fundamentally changed in the Boris Johnson situation. A few weeks ago there was possibility in enough minds, including my own, he could survive this - there is now no possibility he can survive this - that’s the change into peoples minds, including his own by accounts.
The idea he can break the law, but because he won a majority in a general election that matters more, that argument brings a vote of no confidence, yet it’s the only argument he has left now, it’s come to the end of his filibustering this week. His questionnaire will be filled out and read by investigators and Prosecutors by Friday of this week.
Boris might survive a VONC. Anything is possible. Don’t know how the Conservatives might appear after that, after endorsing him to stay, and where their poll ratings may go… but I suspect precisely this reasoning why does not survive the vonc.
This is where we are this morning. It’s straightforward analysis of an evolving picture based on sound logic and timing is it not?
Firstly to use it, to initiate military conflict Putin has to have two basic things, clear goals to achieve, and an exit strategy. But If Putin has a crisp successful, in and out option that achieves clear goals and allows swift end without mission creep, and not dragged into something other than clear goals, it’s not amazingly obvious.
Therefore we need to seriously think about the second outcome, which I shall call sabre rattling. As the protagonist Putin is in the position of leaving us guessing and analysing. But if he is working to a plan, and goals to achieve, he is a long way ahead of us in his planning and thinking. We have no choice but to keep our minds open to the fact it might be sabre rattling diplomacy from Putin, perhaps to achieve movement on the stalled Minsk Protocols.
With the emergence of the EU, does NATO have a finite life? Are things naturally moving in such a direction? If this is true or not, Putin doesn’t have to work with this grain, he does have an advantage, unlike Washington, of Russia actually being in Europe.
If you think back to the Miners strike in the eighties, I was reading about yesterday, the Conservative government won the strike not so much during the strike, but in the years leading up to it by amassing large stocks to ensure miners would be out a long time before having impact. Now could Putin have done similar groundwork in the lead up to this? As Biden proposes to block Nord and European politicians don’t like the sound of that, is this actually things moving as Putin long time planned - to split his fellow European neighbours and EU from Washington and revive the implementation of Minsk Agreements with them, not Washington, London and NATO?
Whilst Putin doesn’t appear to have goals easily achievable through military action, he will clearly gain a lot if he moves EU and Ukraine towards those Minsk Protocol’s so far not implemented. We have no choice but to consider this, because if he doesn’t initiate military conflict, and we hail ourselves on the triumph of thwarting his invasion - we may actually overlook what Putin’s plan actually has been all along, and crucially still ongoing in the years to come.
I suggest we monitor the media carefully not just for signs of invasion or false flag operations, but listen to what EU capitals, and the Ukrainian government, are saying about Nord and Minsk Protocols.
Hope this helps.
Nite 🙋♀️
The developer, who has not previously talked publicly about his experiences on the project, told Computer Weekly that in the months leading up to its launch, Horizon’s problems were well known inside Fujitsu.
“Everybody in the building by the time I got there knew it was a bag of s**t”, he said. “It had gone through the test labs God knows how many times, and the testers were raising bugs by the thousand.”"
https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252496560/Fujitsu-bosses-knew-about-Post-Office-Horizon-IT-flaws-says-insider
And what's really appalling is that the incompetence at Fujitsu-ICL was so severe that a number of postmasters went to prison for crimes they did not commit. And Fujitsu-UCL tried to cover it up.
It really is one rule for us and another for them.
Kamila Valieva can compete again at the Winter Olympics after the Court of Arbitration for Sport (Cas) decided that no provisional suspension should be imposed on the 15-year-old after she failed a drugs test.
Cas said preventing the Russian figure skater from competing would have caused her "irreparable harm".
What a mess. The other competitors should consider boycotting the individual event.
The Post Office should, surely to God, have realised something was amiss with the system. Surely management should have asked more of Fujitsu-UCL than they did.
Senior people at the PO knew the project was a bug-riddled disaster, yet proceeded to hold this sub-postmasters, small business franchisees, legally liable for the accounting errors it was generating.
That the result was a number of these small businesssmen ending up in prison, and others committing suicide, really needs a public enquiry.
It needs a criminal inquiry, followed by prosecutions.
Some are saying that the leopard of the Russian Olympic Committee never changes its spots, and others are saying that this particular young lady has been singled out for ‘the novichok treatment’, by the more established members of the squad who don’t want her to succeed.
A right mess all around, and as much chance of a good solution as Formula 1 has of sorting out their last race.
Mr. 86, what's the point of testing for drugs if you can fail a test and compete anyway?
It will also ask whether staff at software developer Fujitsu, which developed the Horizon software to complete tasks such as transactions, accounting and stocktaking, knew the system had flaws while data from it was used in court to convict sub-postmasters.
A judge will hear evidence on why sub-postmasters and postmistresses were singled out and whether they have been justly compensated.'
I gather witnesses are giving evidence on oath. I suspect we'll see some very dirty secrets come out. There must, too, have been some collusion, and reasons for that collusion, between Post Office staff and the Fujitsu team, if not their management.
https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2022/02/call-for-humberside-chief-constable-to-replace-cressida-dick-at-met-police/
They recruited staff from a very wide range of backgrounds, few if any of whom had any kind of criminal record. Yet the sheer number the PO was accusing implied that they had somehow managed to corner the market in crooked staff. Surely somebody at some point must have said 'This can't be right'. How could any organisation manage to recruit so many fraudelent staff? It would be very difficult even if that's what they were trying to do.
Never mind all the other obvious failures. The failure to apply common sense seems to be one of the most obvious, extreme and inexplicable.
When the mask mandate gets dropped I suspect we will see rather a lot of people continuing to wear then in certain circumstances - 2 years gets you used to things.
Great pizza restaurant in Evesham - Flavours. It's on the North side as you are going out towards Worcester or Stratford.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17640409/john-major-boris-johnson-attack/?rec_article=true
There’s also a US Global Hawk drone Forte12 doing a fair bit of high-level (54,000’) reconnaissance around Western Ukraine at the moment - that it’s doing it with transponder happily skwarking away, suggests it’s a show of intent rather than an offensive mission.
I hope the judge gets, and makes public, the minutes of the Board meeting when this issue was discussed.
As it must have been. Surely.
Life will not return to how it was for a long time. In some parts of the world it will not do so in our lifetimes and 50 years from now the children of today will still be scarred by the experience.
Some good has come from this pandemic: a recalibration of life's priorities and the marvel of realising that commuting is a stupid way to live the only life you have. Work from home as much as you can and reconnect with nature and the green planet.
I would say it was statistically impossible to find that many crooks in a normal population of people. That in itself should have rung the alarm bells.
You're right - he's being investigated by the polis for not only repeated law-breaking but for leading a criminal organisation that collectively saw the law as not applying. Whats more he has lied and lied to the house then lied about lying.
Any other PM with morals would have gone. Any other MPs with morals would have told him to go. Yet here we are with seemingly moral people prostrating themselves at the feel of all that they know is wrong unwilling to take the leap because "we don't know that the alternative will be better". That most advicated the Brexit leap off the cliff and still think their broken legs are better is an irony lost on them.