Would be interested in comments from learned (or otherwise) PBers?
Having grown up in Scotland and the NE of England, those big splashes of dark purple aren't surprising at all, sadly. The London patterns are interesting - N Londoners die of drugs, S Londoners of booze, it seems. An interesting map, thanks for sharing.
For Christ's sake it's like these people want the bloody place to burn down. Parliament restoration: Back to square one? The multi billion-pound cost estimates keep ratcheting up and the time the work is expected to take is getting ever longer, and it now looks as if those in charge in the House of Commons are about to pull the plug on the scheme to renovate Parliament's crumbling Victorian home...
So the two key figures in running the Commons want a rethink, but the Sponsor Body set up in 2019 under the Parliamentary Buildings Act has several times warned that restoration will cost more and take longer if the Parliamentarians insist on staying put in the Victorian part of the building - and now the House of Commons Commission, the administrative body of the Commons, which is chaired by the Speaker, wants the Sponsor Body scrappe
It's a world heritage site - even if they move parliament itself somewhere else it's going to cost a lot of money to maintain, and it's always going to be unpopular to do so.
And it is only going to cost more the longer they refuse to do anything about it. 3 years since they finally 'decided' and it seems like they're just going backwards.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did want it to burn, actually. I can just imagine the fire brigade being directed to rescue Big Ben, and possibly Westminster Hall as well, and allowing the fire to destroy the rest of the building so they can start again. Nice modern building with purpose built facilities, and would probably still cost less than a painstaking restoration of the crumbling old edifice.
What does the west do here? Just watch as Russia invades?
Yes. And freeze all Russian assets within western control. We aren't going to war with Russia and Putin knows that. But we can fuck over his oligarch patrons. May be enough to make him Stop and Think.
So after a period of threats he is now allegedly on the brink. Applying the most pressure to NATO. Great time to ask for what you want to not invade, is it not?
For Christ's sake it's like these people want the bloody place to burn down. Parliament restoration: Back to square one? The multi billion-pound cost estimates keep ratcheting up and the time the work is expected to take is getting ever longer, and it now looks as if those in charge in the House of Commons are about to pull the plug on the scheme to renovate Parliament's crumbling Victorian home...
So the two key figures in running the Commons want a rethink, but the Sponsor Body set up in 2019 under the Parliamentary Buildings Act has several times warned that restoration will cost more and take longer if the Parliamentarians insist on staying put in the Victorian part of the building - and now the House of Commons Commission, the administrative body of the Commons, which is chaired by the Speaker, wants the Sponsor Body scrappe
It's a world heritage site - even if they move parliament itself somewhere else it's going to cost a lot of money to maintain, and it's always going to be unpopular to do so.
And it is only going to cost more the longer they refuse to do anything about it. 3 years since they finally 'decided' and it seems like they're just going backwards.
Didn't they fanny about for ages because they wanted Big Ben to go bong or whatever when we pretended we left the EU?
Would be interested in comments from learned (or otherwise) PBers?
Having grown up in Scotland and the NE of England, those big splashes of dark purple aren't surprising at all, sadly. The London patterns are interesting - N Londoners die of drugs, S Londoners of booze, it seems. An interesting map, thanks for sharing.
Hard to get drugs over to the Hebrides/Orkney apparently. Tiny market not worth the risk.
Isle of Wight is weird. Pensioners overdosing on prescription drugs?
What does the west do here? Just watch as Russia invades?
Essentially yes. I mean, there will obviously have to be sanctions, a mad scramble by the Americans to send Europe as many shiploads of LNG as possible, and a tragic accident will have to befall the Nordstream 2 pipeline project. But any species of military intervention would be unthinkable.
If I may be allowed a paternal boast. Gratz to older daughter who got almost straight 9s in her mock GCSEs, from English to geography to science
I have no idea what that means - 9?! - but apparently it’s A star.
Super bright. Well done lass
An 8 is an A*. A 9 is an extra grade above that designed to distinguish the very brightest.
Awarding it however is rather more complex than 'this would be a 9 as it was a 9 last year.' I tend not to give out marks above an 8 in mocks, as a result.
Bear in mind for many subjects this will only be the second year of using these grades - only in Maths and English did we get three series of exams before Covid hit.
But it's an impressive achievement. Congratulations to her.
She is exceptionally bright. She was reading complex Julian Barnes novels aged 12-13
What particularly delights me is that she got 8 in maths and 9 in science. We always knew she was highly articulate and literate, but it’s very gratifying to see she can do it on the other side of the brain
Just mocks, of course, so who knows. But nice. V nice
Congratulations. It's nice having a bright kid. My eldest daughter has her GCSEs this year, too. She had an interview at a sixth form college today. Seems like yesterday she was heading to school for the first time!
That Russian news puts party gate into perspective.
OK - I think we’re about to enter into a really hostile, unprecedented period since ww2. No idea how it will pan out.
I don't think Putin would go for it without the tacit support of China, so this could be the start of a bid to completely reorder the global system.
Even more worrying. China readying for a go at Taiwan while Putin runs a decoy operation in Ukraine. Putin is a judoka, but this could be tag wrestling.
“I’m sure you guys have noticed I’ve been talking about Ukraine a lot lately. Now that the story is out in the open, I can confirm:
As of right now, the US expects the invasion to begin as early as next week, starting with electronic warfare and heavy bombardment. 1/2
This is going to get really, really ugly. Russia’s electronic warfare (EW) capability is top-notch, and they have plenty of fighters, bombers, and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) prepositioned to saturate the area in advance of the ground element. 2/2
Would be interested in comments from learned (or otherwise) PBers?
Having grown up in Scotland and the NE of England, those big splashes of dark purple aren't surprising at all, sadly. The London patterns are interesting - N Londoners die of drugs, S Londoners of booze, it seems. An interesting map, thanks for sharing.
Hard to get drugs over to the Hebrides/Orkney apparently. Tiny market not worth the risk.
Isle of Wight is weird. Pensioners overdosing on prescription drugs?
I assumed it was people who went for the festival and spent the rest of their lives there off their face. Also, isn't it spectacularly boring? Might encourage drug taking. A lot of it looks like "deaths of despair" in places people might be despairing.
This seems to be a case of presuming Putin will invade . Because he’s amassed so many troops but not credible intelligence that it’s definitely going to happen . Isn’t there a danger here that the west is talking this up too much .
She nicked the idea - Cressida moaning about fictional TV portrayals of the police - from PB. I wrote that as long ago as last June.
Not the first time PB headers get "borrowed" from by paid journalists.They could at least credit PB, OGH and his wonderful header writers. (Or share their fee .....?)
Humph ....😡
Influencing journalists used to be the point of pb. Around 2010 I used to wonder if I was the only PBer who was not a CCHQ-sponsored astroturfer, especially on Wednesday lunchtimes when pb would be full of messages about David Cameron's triumph at PMQs, even when it was clear he'd been KO'd by the clunking great fist.
Talking of GCHQ-sponsored astroturfers what on earth has happened to Philip [Redacted]? The story so far.....
from being the most prolific poster since records began his output dried up. This coincided with Partygate.
He then returned in the guise of Bartholomew Roberts (wasn't that Thatcher's maiden name?) but with a much reduced output.
Either he REALLY was a GCHQ-sponsored astroturfer who was cleared out with the bathwater of Partygate or a genuine crazy propagandist who couldn't face seeing the man he considered the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill being revealed as a buffoon.
We're not supposed to dox people, even if everyone knows who they are, like BR or Leon. BR (a pirate?) was not a Boris man iirc. Whatever happened, prices up, prices down, plague of frogs, he said it was OK because "the market" would fix it. Boris is, or claims to be, rather more of an interventionist.
Perhaps he's just busy these days - the business he runs being crippled by Brexit red tape and efficiency problems due to the lack of cheap immigrant labour.
This seems to be a case of presuming Putin will invade . Because he’s amassed so many troops but not credible intelligence that it’s definitely going to happen . Isn’t there a danger here that the west is talking this up too much .
I don't follow what 'danger' you are referring to in that way.
He has as you say amassed a great deal of troops in the region, with a clear threat of invasion. How is responding to that threat as potentially real a 'danger'? Wouldn't it be absolutely stupid to not being prepared just in case it is real?
Unless someone believes the will be more inclined to invade if people talk up the possibility, which is insane, I don't see how there is any danger in looking at invasion as possible, and preparing to respond in whatever way is considered appropriate.
What I am 100% sure of is that if he doesn't invade a lot of people are going to condemn 'the West' and say it was all nothing and warmongers in NATO were making things up. Even if the fact people have responded to the threats is part of why he does not go through with it.
Unless an awful lot of clever people are humongously deluded, Russia is likely going to invade Ukraine, next week
Or are they playing chess with Putin, putting pressure on him by making it seem that an invasion is almost certain now, so he has to come back with some better negotiating positions? He wants results me thinks not to be bogged down in a war.
Also, Hey, I don't mean to rain on your parade but we're not gonna last 50.5 hours! Those things are gonna come in here just like they did before! And they're-- they're gonna come in here--
She nicked the idea - Cressida moaning about fictional TV portrayals of the police - from PB. I wrote that as long ago as last June.
Not the first time PB headers get "borrowed" from by paid journalists.They could at least credit PB, OGH and his wonderful header writers. (Or share their fee .....?)
Humph ....😡
Influencing journalists used to be the point of pb. Around 2010 I used to wonder if I was the only PBer who was not a CCHQ-sponsored astroturfer, especially on Wednesday lunchtimes when pb would be full of messages about David Cameron's triumph at PMQs, even when it was clear he'd been KO'd by the clunking great fist.
Talking of GCHQ-sponsored astroturfers what on earth has happened to Philip Thompson? The story so far.....
from being the most prolific poster since records began his output dried up. This coincided with Partygate.
He then returned in the guise of Bartholomew Roberts (wasn't that Thatcher's maiden name?) but with a much reduced output.
Either he REALLY was a GCHQ-sponsored astroturfer who was cleared out with the bathwater of Partygate or a genuine crazy propagandist who couldn't face seeing the man he considered the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill being revealed as a buffoon.
Unless an awful lot of clever people are humongously deluded, Russia is likely going to invade Ukraine, next week
To what end?
To what end has he massed troops to threaten invasion in the first place?
My general working assumption for most things is that a lot of the time when you think X is about to happen, it doesn't. The status quo usually continues being the status quo.
But of course every now and then stuff does happen. That stuff being a bad idea doesn't really impact whether it will occur or not.
An invasion not occuring would not mean that what has been going on is nothing, or that people shouldn't have responded to escalation.
Also, Hey, I don't mean to rain on your parade but we're not gonna last 50.5 hours! Those things are gonna come in here just like they did before! And they're-- they're gonna come in here--
Unless an awful lot of clever people are humongously deluded, Russia is likely going to invade Ukraine, next week
Or are they playing chess with Putin, putting pressure on him by making it seem that an invasion is almost certain now, so he has to come back with some better negotiating positions? He wants results me thinks not to be bogged down in a war.
Would he get “bogged down”? He could seize the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine with impunity. Appear as a liberator. Raising their GDP per capita overnight. Russia is enlarged.
No one will fight for those bits. Certainly not us
It’s whether he goes for Kiev, Odessaand Western Ukraine, where he WOULD face huge resistance and guerilla war. I doubt that. We may be about to witness the (further) partition of Ukraine
Also, Hey, I don't mean to rain on your parade but we're not gonna last 50.5 hours! Those things are gonna come in here just like they did before! And they're-- they're gonna come in here--
Look into my eye!
This little girl survived longer than that with no weapons and no training. Right?
Ukraine Gave Up a Giant Nuclear Arsenal 30 Years Ago. Today There Are Regrets.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine turned over thousands of atomic weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and other countries.
At the end of the Cold War, the third largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine. The Soviet collapse, a slow-motion downfall that culminated in December 1991, resulted in the newly independent Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms that Moscow had stationed on its soil. Underground silos on its military bases held long-range missiles that carried up to 10 thermonuclear warheads, each far stronger than the bomb that leveled Hiroshima. Only Russia and the United States had more weapons.
The removal of this arsenal often gets hailed as a triumph of arms control. Diplomats and peace activists cast Ukraine as a model citizen in a world of would-be nuclear powers.
US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC
They've been saying that for months. May be true, but still seems to me totally bonkers purely from the perspective of Putin's interest. The negatives seem to vastly outweigh the positives - ruined relations, largely hostile country, huge costs, sanctions vs some sort of nationalist gratification.
But I appreciate that Putin's mind may work in some mysteriously different way.
People can lead themselves into situations which they know are dumb and damaging, but have forced themselves into nonetheless (like pretending you didn't know a party was a party for example).
I don't know Putin's mind either, but he has gathered up a lot of armed forces with the minimum intent of threatening to invade (whilst silmultaneously claiming he isn't, but that he will stand down if others give in), and so if he didn't get what he thought out of that threat, who the hell knows what he might do? One might well argue it was dumb to go after Eastern Ukraine (Crimea seems to have been an easy win), but he still did it.
And they haven't been saying he will invade 'next week' for months. It's been said he was preparing for invasion, which is not quite the same thing.
Yes, perhaps. Crimea I get - strongly pro-Russian, separated from the Ukraine, joined by historical accident. The far eastern bit of Ukraine maybe, again ethnically mostly Russian, though my impression is not as pro-Russian as Crimea and currently run by a sort of mafia and not really viable. Perhaps the plan is to threaten to take the whole of Ukraine, then "compromise" on just taking a little bit to make the eastern area more viable? That could be what Biden gleaned in his hastily-corrected slip about any major intervention being unacceptable, i.e. by implication a minor one wouldn't be so bad. Perhaps he had intelligence that that was the more "moderate" plan under consideration?
The history is not all one way - it does appear to be true that Ukraine signed up to regional autonomy with no interention of ever granting it. It would be rational for the Russians to be annoyed about that, but not to start a war, any more than HYUFD with his "tanks in Edinburgh" option.
But one can go mad trying to read the mind of autocrats.
Ukraine Gave Up a Giant Nuclear Arsenal 30 Years Ago. Today There Are Regrets.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine turned over thousands of atomic weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and other countries.
At the end of the Cold War, the third largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine. The Soviet collapse, a slow-motion downfall that culminated in December 1991, resulted in the newly independent Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms that Moscow had stationed on its soil. Underground silos on its military bases held long-range missiles that carried up to 10 thermonuclear warheads, each far stronger than the bomb that leveled Hiroshima. Only Russia and the United States had more weapons.
The removal of this arsenal often gets hailed as a triumph of arms control. Diplomats and peace activists cast Ukraine as a model citizen in a world of would-be nuclear powers.
Kazakhstan also surrendered its legacy nuclear weapons AIR. However, Nursultan Nazarbayev and his acolytes cosied up to Moscow instead of trying to plot an independent course as Ukraine has.
Mind you, there's much less bitterness towards Russia in Kazakhstan than there is in the Ukraine. It didn't suffer the tragedies of the Holodomar, the German invasion, and the Russian counter-attack.
Unless an awful lot of clever people are humongously deluded, Russia is likely going to invade Ukraine, next week
Or are they playing chess with Putin, putting pressure on him by making it seem that an invasion is almost certain now, so he has to come back with some better negotiating positions? He wants results me thinks not to be bogged down in a war.
Would he get “bogged down”? He could seize the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine with impunity. Appear as a liberator. Raising their GDP per capita overnight. Russia is enlarged.
No one will fight for those bits. Certainly not us
It’s whether he goes for Kiev, Odessaand Western Ukraine, where he WOULD face huge resistance and guerilla war. I doubt that. We may be about to witness the (further) partition of Ukraine
Yes, that makes more sense. It seems what he actually wants is a federated Ukr with the eastern bit as trojan horse helping to control what politicians in western bit do e.g. EU membership type stuff. So says recent pieces in telegraph and New statesman
Unless an awful lot of clever people are humongously deluded, Russia is likely going to invade Ukraine, next week
To what end?
My general working assumption for most things is that a lot of the time when you think X is about to happen, it doesn't. The status quo usually continues being the status quo.
US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC
They've been saying that for months. May be true, but still seems to me totally bonkers purely from the perspective of Putin's interest. The negatives seem to vastly outweigh the positives - ruined relations, largely hostile country, huge costs, sanctions vs some sort of nationalist gratification.
But I appreciate that Putin's mind may work in some mysteriously different way.
People can lead themselves into situations which they know are dumb and damaging, but have forced themselves into nonetheless (like pretending you didn't know a party was a party for example).
I don't know Putin's mind either, but he has gathered up a lot of armed forces with the minimum intent of threatening to invade (whilst silmultaneously claiming he isn't, but that he will stand down if others give in), and so if he didn't get what he thought out of that threat, who the hell knows what he might do? One might well argue it was dumb to go after Eastern Ukraine (Crimea seems to have been an easy win), but he still did it.
And they haven't been saying he will invade 'next week' for months. It's been said he was preparing for invasion, which is not quite the same thing.
Yes, perhaps. Crimea I get - strongly pro-Russian, separated from the Ukraine, joined by historical accident. The far eastern bit of Ukraine maybe, again ethnically mostly Russian, though my impression is not as pro-Russian as Crimea and currently run by a sort of mafia and not really viable. Perhaps the plan is to threaten to take the whole of Ukraine, then "compromise" on just taking a little bit to make the eastern area more viable? That could be what Biden gleaned in his hastily-corrected slip about any major intervention being unacceptable, i.e. by implication a minor one wouldn't be so bad. Perhaps he had intelligence that that was the more "moderate" plan under consideration?
The history is not all one way - it does appear to be true that Ukraine signed up to regional autonomy with no interention of ever granting it. It would be rational for the Russians to be annoyed about that, but not to start a war, any more than HYUFD with his "tanks in Edinburgh" option.
But one can go mad trying to read the mind of autocrats.
My assumption, based on nothing really, is that your suggestion is right in that being realistic that German Naval dude was right that Ukraine is never getting Crimea back, and almost certainly is never getting the eastern bit already taken back either. Expanding it a little or just being a little more formal in making clear Ukraine will never get it back might well be the aim.
No one wants to get involved in such a messy border - setting out that it will remain disputed as a long term Russian goal effectively cuts off a lot of diplomatic options for Ukraine I imagine. Nations can ignore that it was invaded years ago, until Russia forces then to acknowledge the reality.
This seems to be a case of presuming Putin will invade . Because he’s amassed so many troops but not credible intelligence that it’s definitely going to happen . Isn’t there a danger here that the west is talking this up too much .
Oh yes.
And in Johnson's case it's a not-very-subtle attempt to ramp up the media and deflect attention away from domestic problems.
It's as old as the hills although at least we should be grateful that he isn't preparing to invade somewhere himself.
For Christ's sake it's like these people want the bloody place to burn down. Parliament restoration: Back to square one? The multi billion-pound cost estimates keep ratcheting up and the time the work is expected to take is getting ever longer, and it now looks as if those in charge in the House of Commons are about to pull the plug on the scheme to renovate Parliament's crumbling Victorian home...
So the two key figures in running the Commons want a rethink, but the Sponsor Body set up in 2019 under the Parliamentary Buildings Act has several times warned that restoration will cost more and take longer if the Parliamentarians insist on staying put in the Victorian part of the building - and now the House of Commons Commission, the administrative body of the Commons, which is chaired by the Speaker, wants the Sponsor Body scrappe
It's a world heritage site - even if they move parliament itself somewhere else it's going to cost a lot of money to maintain, and it's always going to be unpopular to do so.
And it is only going to cost more the longer they refuse to do anything about it. 3 years since they finally 'decided' and it seems like they're just going backwards.
I believe Muriel Gray has moved on from Glasgow School of Art to the boards of the British Museum and the BBC. Perhaps she could be ennobled and get involved in the Westminster renovation. That would sort things out..
This seems to be a case of presuming Putin will invade . Because he’s amassed so many troops but not credible intelligence that it’s definitely going to happen . Isn’t there a danger here that the west is talking this up too much .
Oh yes.
And in Johnson's case it's a not-very-subtle attempt to ramp up the media and deflect attention away from domestic problems.
It's as old as the hills although at least we should be grateful that he isn't preparing to invade somewhere himself.
Johnson is so incompetent that I bet many Ukrainians are wishing he was a Russian planning an invasion right now. He'd probably absent-mindedly invade China instead.
Americans. They regard Sunday as the first day of the week. Also, Kiev time. midnight on Sunday is now 26.25 hours away.
50.25 hours, please! We're British!
I was not aware that was an american thing. I've always thought Sunday was the first day of the week.
"While in North America Sunday is the first day of the week, Europeans commonly consider Monday as the first day of the week and the Geneva-based International Organization for Standardization places Monday as the first day of the week in its ISO 8601 standard."
Could have sworn I read that a Russian invasion wouldn't happen a few days ago...
It true there's a poster on here who is about to take Roger's crown.
Don't be snide. Be open.
I said I don't think they will invade Ukraine and I still don't think they will invade Ukraine.
Got it now?
You didn't substantiate your claim at all. Just hot air. There are thousands just like you on Twtitter dead sure of what will happen, but the experts are the ones with doubts.
US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC
Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May.
Economic sanctions on Russia will follow and further military reinforcements sent by NATO to Poland and the Baltic States
A full scale Russian invasion throws EVERYTHING into confusion, abeyance and mayhem. Not least my planned trip to Odessa in March. Oh well
Perhaps you could go to Odessa as War Correspondent, with helmet and flak jacket?
Balaclava, and cardigan with raglan sleeves. That war was highly productive in terms of shit fashion items.
Also responsible for the late Victorian Karl Marx giant beard trend. Shaving was banned in the Crimea due to risk of infection. Queen Victoria was quite taken by the burly, tanned and hirsute troops.
For Christ's sake it's like these people want the bloody place to burn down. Parliament restoration: Back to square one? The multi billion-pound cost estimates keep ratcheting up and the time the work is expected to take is getting ever longer, and it now looks as if those in charge in the House of Commons are about to pull the plug on the scheme to renovate Parliament's crumbling Victorian home...
So the two key figures in running the Commons want a rethink, but the Sponsor Body set up in 2019 under the Parliamentary Buildings Act has several times warned that restoration will cost more and take longer if the Parliamentarians insist on staying put in the Victorian part of the building - and now the House of Commons Commission, the administrative body of the Commons, which is chaired by the Speaker, wants the Sponsor Body scrappe
It's a world heritage site - even if they move parliament itself somewhere else it's going to cost a lot of money to maintain, and it's always going to be unpopular to do so.
And it is only going to cost more the longer they refuse to do anything about it. 3 years since they finally 'decided' and it seems like they're just going backwards.
Didn't they fanny about for ages because they wanted Big Ben to go bong or whatever when we pretended we left the EU?
I'd believe anything at this point.
I think what really pisses me off about it is the complaints and delays that get reported all seem to be that it will cost a lot of money and be difficult to do, so they say no to any option as if awaiting a miracle where it will become easy and cheap.
Well it won't, so grow up and either fork out the money or just stop pretending you're renovate at all.
Americans. They regard Sunday as the first day of the week. Also, Kiev time. midnight on Sunday is now 26.25 hours away.
50.25 hours, please! We're British!
I was not aware that was an american thing. I've always thought Sunday was the first day of the week.
"While in North America Sunday is the first day of the week, Europeans commonly consider Monday as the first day of the week and the Geneva-based International Organization for Standardization places Monday as the first day of the week in its ISO 8601 standard."
Could have sworn I read that a Russian invasion wouldn't happen a few days ago...
It true there's a poster on here who is about to take Roger's crown.
Don't be snide. Be open.
I said I don't think they will invade Ukraine and I still don't think they will invade Ukraine.
Got it now?
You didn't substantiate your claim at all. Just hot air. There are thousands just like you on Twtitter dead sure of what will happen, but the experts are the ones with doubts.
I'm not 'dead sure' but I do not think Russia will invade Ukraine. That is based not on hot air but a former life which I'm not going into in very great detail. As I mentioned previously a few days ago, when I was involved in such things it became a bit of a running joke that the might of Russia was exaggerated. I could say more but I shan't. But on a more widely available point I do not think they have sufficient numbers in place to mount a successful invasion at this time.
They would need more to be sure of success and my assessment of Putin is that he's not one to countenance a possible defeat.
Now stop being so rude and ad hominem. This place gets childishly argumentative a lot of the time.
Lucy Fisher @LOS_Fisher · 31m Important: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stresses Washington is not saying Putin has made a decision on Ukraine (contra PBS report).
He says Moscow’s put in place all forces needed to conduct a major military action, so now a “distinct possibility” Putin could act.
Could have sworn I read that a Russian invasion wouldn't happen a few days ago...
It true there's a poster on here who is about to take Roger's crown.
Don't be snide. Be open.
I said I don't think they will invade Ukraine and I still don't think they will invade Ukraine.
Got it now?
You didn't substantiate your claim at all. Just hot air. There are thousands just like you on Twtitter dead sure of what will happen, but the experts are the ones with doubts.
I'm not 'dead sure' but I do not think Russia will invade Ukraine. That is based not on hot air but a former life which I'm not going into in very great detail. As I mentioned previously a few days ago, when I was involved in such things it was a became a bit of a running joke that the might of Russia was exaggerated. I could say more but I shan't. But on a more widely available point I do not think they have sufficient numbers in place to mount a successful invasion at this time.
They would need more to be sure of success and my assessment of Putin is that he's not one to countenance a possible defeat.
The issue isn't'winning' in a military sense. Whether the Russian Bear is actually a paper tiger or not, they could do that fairly easily. Ukraine is easy to invade geographically and its military is not the strongest.
The question is the aftermath. How do you hold a sulky and rebellious country against its will when your military is urgently needed elsewhere?
The answer is with extreme difficulty. Just ask the Americans after Iraq...
And I don't know that Putin and particularly Lukashenko can take the punishment Bush did.
Lucy Fisher @LOS_Fisher · 31m Important: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stresses Washington is not saying Putin has made a decision on Ukraine (contra PBS report).
He says Moscow’s put in place all forces needed to conduct a major military action, so now a “distinct possibility” Putin could act.
I'm beginning to think (hope?) that the West is calling Putin's bluff tonight, having calculated that he lacks the strength for a successful invasion. Either he goes in and gets beaten or he stays out and loses face.
Two months and five days since the last Tory poll lead*.
(* Redfield & Wilton, 6th December.)
17 years since last LAB GE win*
(*2005) 👍
And the chance of a Labour win (326 seats - 126 more than now) remains small. Among the possible 'next governments' a Tory majority government is the favourite. And they are favourites for most seats.
For ages I have said that the next GE probabilities are about 45%+ Tory majority, 45%+ some sort of centre left alliance, 10%-5% Labour majority. I think it has shifted a bit but not massively. There is too long to go and too much to happen.
Paterson+Partygate has been a dark grey swan to say the least. But the next one could be something where the Pidcock tendency blows up the Labour party and its hopes. SKS will have to work hard to keep the left off the telly and out of mind. They will be doing their best to lose the election for the class traitor.
Could have sworn I read that a Russian invasion wouldn't happen a few days ago...
It true there's a poster on here who is about to take Roger's crown.
Don't be snide. Be open.
I said I don't think they will invade Ukraine and I still don't think they will invade Ukraine.
Got it now?
You didn't substantiate your claim at all. Just hot air. There are thousands just like you on Twtitter dead sure of what will happen, but the experts are the ones with doubts.
I'm not 'dead sure' but I do not think Russia will invade Ukraine. That is based not on hot air but a former life which I'm not going into in very great detail. As I mentioned previously a few days ago, when I was involved in such things it became a bit of a running joke that the might of Russia was exaggerated. I could say more but I shan't. But on a more widely available point I do not think they have sufficient numbers in place to mount a successful invasion at this time.
They would need more to be sure of success and my assessment of Putin is that he's not one to countenance a possible defeat.
Now stop being so rude and ad hominem. This place gets childishly argumentative a lot of the time.
Definitely growing into the role of Fault finder General
Two months and five days since the last Tory poll lead*.
(* Redfield & Wilton, 6th December.)
17 years since last LAB GE win*
(*2005) 👍
And the chance of a Labour win (326 seats - 126 more than now) remains small. Among the possible 'next governments' a Tory majority government is the favourite. And they are favourites for most seats.
But the markets have been an appalling guide to outcomes in recent years. Look at Chesham and Amersham where you could still get fantastic odds on the LDs during the count, and a host of other cock-ups including the US Presidential election.
Lucy Fisher @LOS_Fisher · 31m Important: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stresses Washington is not saying Putin has made a decision on Ukraine (contra PBS report).
He says Moscow’s put in place all forces needed to conduct a major military action, so now a “distinct possibility” Putin could act.
I'm beginning to think (hope?) that the West is calling Putin's bluff tonight, having calculated that he lacks the strength for a successful invasion. Either he goes in and gets beaten or he stays out and loses face.
Indeed. As I posted earlier it seems to me a concerted effort get him to do another round of talks.
And the chance of a Labour win (326 seats - 126 more than now) remains small. Among the possible 'next governments' a Tory majority government is the favourite. And they are favourites for most seats.
For ages I have said that the next GE probabilities are about 45%+ Tory majority, 45%+ some sort of centre left alliance, 10%-5% Labour majority. I think it has shifted a bit but not massively. There is too long to go and too much to happen.
Paterson+Partygate has been a dark grey swan to say the least. But the next one could be something where the Pidcock tendency blows up the Labour party and its hopes. SKS will have to work hard to keep the left off the telly and out of mind. They will be doing their best to lose the election for the class traitor.
I doubt it - as the mid-90s showed, "the left" (whatever that means) will be acquiescent if they think victory and power is within their grasp.
The fear/hope (delete as appropriate) was that Blair's revolution of Labour would be derailed by the ghosts of Militant but it wasn't because as all sensible politicians know, office is infinitely preferable to opposition.
It will also be that judgement which decides Johnson's fate.
Unless an awful lot of clever people are humongously deluded, Russia is likely going to invade Ukraine, next week
Or are they playing chess with Putin, putting pressure on him by making it seem that an invasion is almost certain now, so he has to come back with some better negotiating positions? He wants results me thinks not to be bogged down in a war.
Would he get “bogged down”? He could seize the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine with impunity. Appear as a liberator. Raising their GDP per capita overnight. Russia is enlarged.
No one will fight for those bits. Certainly not us
It’s whether he goes for Kiev, Odessaand Western Ukraine, where he WOULD face huge resistance and guerilla war. I doubt that. We may be about to witness the (further) partition of Ukraine
Big mistake to believe the Russian speaking part of Ukraine would regard him as a liberator. I'm not sure Crimeans are that happy now with the situation. Being governed by Putin's mafia isn't much fun. There's obviously a fair bit of discontent in Russia itself. The trouble is that we signed up to 1994 Treaty on Ukranian nuclear disarmament and the Ukranians themselves signed the Minsk agreement. On the other side you've got some autocratic thugs.
I just hope the message is clear that a further incursion would mean freezing of UK assets of the Russian elite. Sending a few hundred troops to Poland is not really a serious threat.
Americans. They regard Sunday as the first day of the week. Also, Kiev time. midnight on Sunday is now 26.25 hours away.
50.25 hours, please! We're British!
I was not aware that was an american thing. I've always thought Sunday was the first day of the week.
"While in North America Sunday is the first day of the week, Europeans commonly consider Monday as the first day of the week and the Geneva-based International Organization for Standardization places Monday as the first day of the week in its ISO 8601 standard."
Its a Judeo/Christian v pragmatists distinction. As everyone knows in the Genesis myth God rested on the 7th and last day of the week. This was the sabbat, called by us Saturday. The Jewish day of rest to this day
This makes Sunday the first day of the week. If you doubt it read the gospel of John 20. v 1 which says it explicitly. The resurrection was said to have occurred then, which is why Christians keep holy the 1st, not the 7th day.
Pragmatists make Monday the first day of the week because the ancient division means you turn over your diary page in the middle of the weekend which is irrational to the middle class 9-5 Monday-Friday people who make rules for the rest of us.
I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.
IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.
I suspect there is a deal to be done and as we saw over the negotiations to leave the EU, the public posturing and point-scoring and sabre rattling masks the proper serious work being done to de-escalate all this. There will be concessions to Putin and we must recognise his "face" needs to be saved as much as anyone's from all this.
He gets a way out, a few calls are made, a few offers are made behind the scenes and it's a small prize for us all to sleep safely in our beds (or someone else's I don't judge).
He wins hypothetical run offs against Le Pen (55-45), Pecresse (56-44) and Zemmour (61-39).
The scrap to be Macron's second round victim continues with Le Pen on 17% two points ahead of Zemmour and Pecresse who are tied on 15% and well ahead of Melanchon on 10.5%. Macron has a solid lead with 25.5% of the vote in the first round of voting which is only a couple of months away.
As Russia goes into the Ukraine Meat Grinder (dreadful phrase but one used on PB) committing themselves being bogged down in there - could we not blind side them (rugby tactics) and free the Belarusians from their mad and undemocratic dictator?
How quick and effectively can NATO take Belarus and install decent government in the capital whilst they organise proper fair elections this time to cement that position? I’m not the war expert like many here are, but looking at the map, Russia may be advancing out of Belarus facing the wrong way whilst we zoom in the right way
Comments
Not much margin for error if that's what they are waiting for.
A day? A week? I presume the US has a source in the Kremlin who can give that warning.
I imagine it is very hard to curtail the momentum. See all the accounts of the Falklands once the flotilla was at sea.
The London patterns are interesting - N Londoners die of drugs, S Londoners of booze, it seems.
An interesting map, thanks for sharing.
So after a period of threats he is now allegedly on the brink. Applying the most pressure to NATO. Great time to ask for what you want to not invade, is it not?
Isle of Wight is weird. Pensioners overdosing on prescription drugs?
https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1492218267099975684?s=21
The alternative is WW3.
If Putin has coordinated it with Xi, Taiwan too could be invaded shortly
As of right now, the US expects the invasion to begin as early as next week, starting with electronic warfare and heavy bombardment. 1/2
This is going to get really, really ugly. Russia’s electronic warfare (EW) capability is top-notch, and they have plenty of fighters, bombers, and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) prepositioned to saturate the area in advance of the ground element. 2/2
https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/status/1492209680017408012?s=21
He has as you say amassed a great deal of troops in the region, with a clear threat of invasion. How is responding to that threat as potentially real a 'danger'? Wouldn't it be absolutely stupid to not being prepared just in case it is real?
Unless someone believes the will be more inclined to invade if people talk up the possibility, which is insane, I don't see how there is any danger in looking at invasion as possible, and preparing to respond in whatever way is considered appropriate.
What I am 100% sure of is that if he doesn't invade a lot of people are going to condemn 'the West' and say it was all nothing and warmongers in NATO were making things up. Even if the fact people have responded to the threats is part of why he does not go through with it.
Also, Hey, I don't mean to rain on your parade but we're not gonna last 50.5 hours! Those things are gonna come in here just like they did before! And they're-- they're gonna come in here--
My general working assumption for most things is that a lot of the time when you think X is about to happen, it doesn't. The status quo usually continues being the status quo.
But of course every now and then stuff does happen. That stuff being a bad idea doesn't really impact whether it will occur or not.
An invasion not occuring would not mean that what has been going on is nothing, or that people shouldn't have responded to escalation.
No one will fight for those bits. Certainly not us
It’s whether he goes for Kiev, Odessaand Western Ukraine, where he WOULD face huge resistance and guerilla war. I doubt that.
We may be about to witness the (further) partition of Ukraine
Ukraine Gave Up a Giant Nuclear Arsenal 30 Years Ago. Today There Are Regrets.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine turned over thousands of atomic weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and other countries.
At the end of the Cold War, the third largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine. The Soviet collapse, a slow-motion downfall that culminated in December 1991, resulted in the newly independent Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms that Moscow had stationed on its soil. Underground silos on its military bases held long-range missiles that carried up to 10 thermonuclear warheads, each far stronger than the bomb that leveled Hiroshima. Only Russia and the United States had more weapons.
The removal of this arsenal often gets hailed as a triumph of arms control. Diplomats and peace activists cast Ukraine as a model citizen in a world of would-be nuclear powers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/science/ukraine-nuclear-weapons.html
(* Redfield & Wilton, 6th December.)
Nothing major happens when PB editorial staff go on holiday/breaks. FACT.
The history is not all one way - it does appear to be true that Ukraine signed up to regional autonomy with no interention of ever granting it. It would be rational for the Russians to be annoyed about that, but not to start a war, any more than HYUFD with his "tanks in Edinburgh" option.
But one can go mad trying to read the mind of autocrats.
(*2005) 👍
Mind you, there's much less bitterness towards Russia in Kazakhstan than there is in the Ukraine. It didn't suffer the tragedies of the Holodomar, the German invasion, and the Russian counter-attack.
Quite
No one wants to get involved in such a messy border - setting out that it will remain disputed as a long term Russian goal effectively cuts off a lot of diplomatic options for Ukraine I imagine. Nations can ignore that it was invaded years ago, until Russia forces then to acknowledge the reality.
Except to one inspired visionary who called peak Boris at what turned out to be, spookily, peak Boris.
And here we are.
And in Johnson's case it's a not-very-subtle attempt to ramp up the media and deflect attention away from domestic problems.
It's as old as the hills although at least we should be grateful that he isn't preparing to invade somewhere himself.
That did worry me.
February 9
Putin bottling?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60315906
I said I don't think they will invade Ukraine and I still don't think they will invade Ukraine.
Got it now?
One for Ms Sturgeon and various Labour appeasers to ponder
And to show he's not a stupid looking idiot with a small cock whose entire domestic policy is more ruined than the Palace of Westminster?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monday
I think what really pisses me off about it is the complaints and delays that get reported all seem to be that it will cost a lot of money and be difficult to do, so they say no to any option as if awaiting a miracle where it will become easy and cheap.
Well it won't, so grow up and either fork out the money or just stop pretending you're renovate at all.
They would need more to be sure of success and my assessment of Putin is that he's not one to countenance a possible defeat.
Now stop being so rude and ad hominem. This place gets childishly argumentative a lot of the time.
Lucy Fisher
@LOS_Fisher
·
31m
Important: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stresses Washington is not saying Putin has made a decision on Ukraine (contra PBS report).
He says Moscow’s put in place all forces needed to conduct a major military action, so now a “distinct possibility” Putin could act.
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1492221044542914565
As I said, some skirmishes and incursions are one thing.
A full-scale invasion another.
I do not believe they have in place sufficient forces to mount a full-scale invasion. At this time.
The question is the aftermath. How do you hold a sulky and rebellious country against its will when your military is urgently needed elsewhere?
The answer is with extreme difficulty. Just ask the Americans after Iraq...
And I don't know that Putin and particularly Lukashenko can take the punishment Bush did.
For ages I have said that the next GE probabilities are about 45%+ Tory majority, 45%+ some sort of centre left alliance, 10%-5% Labour majority. I think it has shifted a bit but not massively. There is too long to go and too much to happen.
Paterson+Partygate has been a dark grey swan to say the least. But the next one could be something where the Pidcock tendency blows up the Labour party and its hopes. SKS will have to work hard to keep the left off the telly and out of mind. They will be doing their best to lose the election for the class traitor.
The fear/hope (delete as appropriate) was that Blair's revolution of Labour would be derailed by the ghosts of Militant but it wasn't because as all sensible politicians know, office is infinitely preferable to opposition.
It will also be that judgement which decides Johnson's fate.
I just hope the message is clear that a further incursion would mean freezing of UK assets of the Russian elite. Sending a few hundred troops to Poland is not really a serious threat.
This makes Sunday the first day of the week. If you doubt it read the gospel of John 20. v 1 which says it explicitly. The resurrection was said to have occurred then, which is why Christians keep holy the 1st, not the 7th day.
Pragmatists make Monday the first day of the week because the ancient division means you turn over your diary page in the middle of the weekend which is irrational to the middle class 9-5 Monday-Friday people who make rules for the rest of us.
I suspect there is a deal to be done and as we saw over the negotiations to leave the EU, the public posturing and point-scoring and sabre rattling masks the proper serious work being done to de-escalate all this. There will be concessions to Putin and we must recognise his "face" needs to be saved as much as anyone's from all this.
He gets a way out, a few calls are made, a few offers are made behind the scenes and it's a small prize for us all to sleep safely in our beds (or someone else's I don't judge).
Scotland is Catalonia or Quebec, it is not the Ukraine which left the USSR in 1990
If there is war in Ukr, might Ben Wallace's leadership chances rise? He will be on telly a lot.
He wins hypothetical run offs against Le Pen (55-45), Pecresse (56-44) and Zemmour (61-39).
The scrap to be Macron's second round victim continues with Le Pen on 17% two points ahead of Zemmour and Pecresse who are tied on 15% and well ahead of Melanchon on 10.5%. Macron has a solid lead with 25.5% of the vote in the first round of voting which is only a couple of months away.
As Russia goes into the Ukraine Meat Grinder (dreadful phrase but one used on PB) committing themselves being bogged down in there - could we not blind side them (rugby tactics) and free the Belarusians from their mad and undemocratic dictator?
How quick and effectively can NATO take Belarus and install decent government in the capital whilst they organise proper fair elections this time to cement that position? I’m not the war expert like many here are, but looking at the map, Russia may be advancing out of Belarus facing the wrong way whilst we zoom in the right way
Easy?
Yours - Jade Bonapartey the First