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Johnson has 15% lead over Sunak amongst CON voters as “best PM” – politicalbetting.com

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  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,272

    War Counterfactual for you.

    As Russia goes into the Ukraine Meat Grinder (dreadful phrase but one used on PB) committing themselves being bogged down in there - could we not blind side them (rugby tactics) and free the Belarusians from their mad and undemocratic dictator?

    How quick and effectively can NATO take Belarus and install decent government in the capital whilst they organise proper fair elections this time to cement that position? I’m not the war expert like many here are, but looking at the map, Russia may be advancing out of Belarus facing the wrong way whilst we zoom in the right way

    Easy?

    Yours - Jade Bonapartey the First

    Of the trouble we could cause if we chose, destabilising Lukashenko at home in the chaos feels like an option, but NATO troops rolling into Minsk, I doubt.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    edited February 2022
    stodge said:

    I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.

    IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.

    I suspect there is a deal to be done and as we saw over the negotiations to leave the EU, the public posturing and point-scoring and sabre rattling masks the proper serious work being done to de-escalate all this. There will be concessions to Putin and we must recognise his "face" needs to be saved as much as anyone's from all this.

    He gets a way out, a few calls are made, a few offers are made behind the scenes and it's a small prize for us all to sleep safely in our beds (or someone else's I don't judge).
    “Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.”

    Are we being fair with the flak Truss taking. In a bottle half full sense, I think Liz Truss would make a fine Travel Agent, because she knows where quite a lot of these funny far away foreign place names actually are.

    Do like me you think we are actually seeing the worst not best of these cabinet personalities, as they preen and jockey into position for the coming leadership election?

    Except Rishi Sunak. I always felt he was the most decent and honest of the Boris Cabinet of Sycophants - how uncomfortable and uncommitted Sunak looks when saying as quickly as possible “Prime Minister Boris Johnson has my full support” absolutely proves it 🙂
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Pro_Rata said:

    War Counterfactual for you.

    As Russia goes into the Ukraine Meat Grinder (dreadful phrase but one used on PB) committing themselves being bogged down in there - could we not blind side them (rugby tactics) and free the Belarusians from their mad and undemocratic dictator?

    How quick and effectively can NATO take Belarus and install decent government in the capital whilst they organise proper fair elections this time to cement that position? I’m not the war expert like many here are, but looking at the map, Russia may be advancing out of Belarus facing the wrong way whilst we zoom in the right way

    Easy?

    Yours - Jade Bonapartey the First

    Of the trouble we could cause if we chose, destabilising Lukashenko at home in the chaos feels like an option, but NATO troops rolling into Minsk, I doubt.
    Then we are being inconsistent. What’s the difference between Belarus and Ukraine? Truth is Ukraine managed to expel Russian stooge and have democracy first, that’s the only difference - surely when it kicks off, the Belarus everyday people deserve our liberation just as much as the Ukrainians?
  • Nats objecting to flags! Whodathunkit?

    https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1492233729749749766
  • Pro_Rata said:

    If he could grab a cheeky extra little sliver of Ukraine whilst securing Donbass, which area would Putin choose?

    Mariupol and a land corridor to Crimea
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443

    War Counterfactual for you.

    As Russia goes into the Ukraine Meat Grinder (dreadful phrase but one used on PB) committing themselves being bogged down in there - could we not blind side them (rugby tactics) and free the Belarusians from their mad and undemocratic dictator?

    How quick and effectively can NATO take Belarus and install decent government in the capital whilst they organise proper fair elections this time to cement that position? I’m not the war expert like many here are, but looking at the map, Russia may be advancing out of Belarus facing the wrong way whilst we zoom in the right way

    Easy?

    Yours - Jade Bonapartey the First

    QTWTAIN.

    1) No such thing as an easy war
    2) NATO does not exist to invade countries posing no direct threat to NATO territory
    3) The appetite for war in distant parts of which we know little in the west in below zero.
    4) A similar number, Zero, of mothers in the west are willing to see their children come home in body bags for a fight in which we are under no threat of direct invasion
    5) The last UK leader who thought this sort of thing was a decent wheeze was Cameron, who tried to persuade us that there were moderate liberal minded tolerant Syrians who we could fight for and with. Even the House of Commons could spot the flaw.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    edited February 2022
    geoffw said:

    Grimly ironic. NYT Feb 5th 2022

    Ukraine Gave Up a Giant Nuclear Arsenal 30 Years Ago. Today There Are Regrets.

    When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine turned over thousands of atomic weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and other countries.

    At the end of the Cold War, the third largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine. The Soviet collapse, a slow-motion downfall that culminated in December 1991, resulted in the newly independent Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms that Moscow had stationed on its soil. Underground silos on its military bases held long-range missiles that carried up to 10 thermonuclear warheads, each far stronger than the bomb that leveled Hiroshima. Only Russia and the United States had more weapons.

    The removal of this arsenal often gets hailed as a triumph of arms control. Diplomats and peace activists cast Ukraine as a model citizen in a world of would-be nuclear powers.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/science/ukraine-nuclear-weapons.html

    This is an important life lesson. Guarantees are worthless.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,246
    Pro_Rata said:

    War Counterfactual for you.

    As Russia goes into the Ukraine Meat Grinder (dreadful phrase but one used on PB) committing themselves being bogged down in there - could we not blind side them (rugby tactics) and free the Belarusians from their mad and undemocratic dictator?

    How quick and effectively can NATO take Belarus and install decent government in the capital whilst they organise proper fair elections this time to cement that position? I’m not the war expert like many here are, but looking at the map, Russia may be advancing out of Belarus facing the wrong way whilst we zoom in the right way

    Easy?

    Yours - Jade Bonapartey the First

    Of the trouble we could cause if we chose, destabilising Lukashenko at home in the chaos feels like an option, but NATO troops rolling into Minsk, I doubt.
    He is surviving by the grace of Russian troops. If they are tied down in Ukraine, he will be more buggered than a reluctant Turkish conscript.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,141

    nico679 said:

    Russia won’t be invading whilst the Olympics are on as that would piss off China so I’d be dubious of that report .

    Russian invaded Georgia in 2008 during the Beijing Olympics.
    Russia needs China more today
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unless an awful lot of clever people are humongously deluded, Russia is likely going to invade Ukraine, next week

    Or are they playing chess with Putin, putting pressure on him by making it seem that an invasion is almost certain now, so he has to come back with some better negotiating positions? He wants results me thinks not to be bogged down in a war.
    Would he get “bogged down”? He could seize the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine with impunity. Appear as a liberator. Raising their GDP per capita overnight. Russia is enlarged.

    No one will fight for those bits. Certainly not us

    It’s whether he goes for Kiev, Odessaand Western Ukraine, where he WOULD face huge resistance and guerilla war. I doubt that.
    We may be about to witness the (further) partition of Ukraine
    Big mistake to believe the Russian speaking part of Ukraine would regard him as a liberator. I'm not sure Crimeans are that happy now with the situation. Being governed by Putin's mafia isn't much fun. There's obviously a fair bit of discontent in Russia itself. The trouble is that we signed up to 1994 Treaty on Ukranian nuclear disarmament and the Ukranians themselves signed the Minsk agreement. On the other side you've got some autocratic thugs.

    I just hope the message is clear that a further incursion would mean freezing of UK assets of the Russian elite. Sending a few hundred troops to Poland is not really a serious threat.
    According to Wikipedia 78% of Ukrainians regard themselves as ethnic Ukrainians, but only 67% of Ukrainians regard Ukrainian as their native language. So a fair proportion of Russian speakers feel Ukrainian, and I expect a lot more would rather not be ruled by Putin.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443
    Very funny. It is odd though that white nationalist grumpy flag wavers who use a nations flag as the emblem of a narrow political cause are usually thought a bit off by right thinking people. The SNP's slightly woke image despite their repellent and aggressive flag waving is a strange exception.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Tres said:

    Techne UK, 8-9 Feb (NB. UK totals)

    Lab 41% (+1)
    Con 33% (+1)
    LD 9% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-)
    Green 6% (-)
    Oth 7% (-1)

    (changes from 1-2 Feb)

    https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/R4-UK-2022-2-11-DATA.pdf

    Please explain scum, homophobic, racist, misogynistic, absolute vile … banana republic, vile, nasty, Etonian … piece of scum.
    You are going to have to be more precise 🤷‍♀️
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    Pro_Rata said:

    If he could grab a cheeky extra little sliver of Ukraine whilst securing Donbass, which area would Putin choose?

    I think this is the plan:

    Pro_Rata said:

    If he could grab a cheeky extra little sliver of Ukraine whilst securing Donbass, which area would Putin choose?

    Mariupol and a land corridor to Crimea
    More or less this:



    Though why then are troops in Belarus and Voronezh?

    Maybe more likely to take everything East of the Dneiper.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    The question that has been troubling me for many months is as follows: If we are trying to bring up children with no concept of violence, and (from what I can observe at my sons junior school) socialising them out of their aggressive instincts at an early age, then how will we ever defend ourselves against a country like Russia?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Tres said:

    Techne UK, 8-9 Feb (NB. UK totals)

    Lab 41% (+1)
    Con 33% (+1)
    LD 9% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-)
    Green 6% (-)
    Oth 7% (-1)

    (changes from 1-2 Feb)

    https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/R4-UK-2022-2-11-DATA.pdf

    Please explain scum, homophobic, racist, misogynistic, absolute vile … banana republic, vile, nasty, Etonian … piece of scum.
    You are going to have to be more precise 🤷‍♀️
    :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited February 2022
    stodge said:

    Decent polling for Macron from Ifop-Fiducial.

    He wins hypothetical run offs against Le Pen (55-45), Pecresse (56-44) and Zemmour (61-39).

    The scrap to be Macron's second round victim continues with Le Pen on 17% two points ahead of Zemmour and Pecresse who are tied on 15% and well ahead of Melanchon on 10.5%. Macron has a solid lead with 25.5% of the vote in the first round of voting which is only a couple of months away.

    Opinion Way has Pecresse closer, Pecresse 47% to Macron's 53%. Macron beats Le Pen by about the same margin 56% to 44% and beats Zemmour by 62% to 38%.

    Le Pen just ahead of Pecresse in round 1 17% to 16% for the runoff with Macron spot with Zemmour trailing on 14%

    https://www.opinion-way.com/fr/barometre-opinionway-kea-partners-election-presidentielle-2022?fbclid=IwAR0sfZOXgwBfBEhbFNBN7omomSie9oeYux-7P5spGAMIcCc9Rx3Try2dgMk?s=09?s=09?utm_source=pocket_mylist?s=09?s=09?utm_source=pocket_mylist?s=09?s=09?s=09?s=09?utm_source=pocket_mylist?s=09?s=09?s=09?s=09?fbclid=IwAR0bwfll6ZDbjXqZUXAwRj_6PtpWASUaFhdv4fiZncmK44hrUz06q8VEEhE?s=09?s=09?s=09
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,688
    Heath's cartoon for The Spectator. Maybe it's wishful thinking.

  • War Counterfactual for you.

    As Russia goes into the Ukraine Meat Grinder (dreadful phrase but one used on PB) committing themselves being bogged down in there - could we not blind side them (rugby tactics) and free the Belarusians from their mad and undemocratic dictator?

    How quick and effectively can NATO take Belarus and install decent government in the capital whilst they organise proper fair elections this time to cement that position? I’m not the war expert like many here are, but looking at the map, Russia may be advancing out of Belarus facing the wrong way whilst we zoom in the right way

    Easy?

    Yours - Jade Bonapartey the First

    Aren't there a few Russian troops in Belarus, who might object?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,141
    Leon said:

    The big lesson here is: Never give up your nukes

    One for Ms Sturgeon and various Labour appeasers to ponder

    People already learnt that from Qaddafi giving up chemical weapons
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,141


    Lucy Fisher
    @LOS_Fisher
    ·
    31m
    Important: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stresses Washington is not saying Putin has made a decision on Ukraine (contra PBS report).

    He says Moscow’s put in place all forces needed to conduct a major military action, so now a “distinct possibility” Putin could act.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1492221044542914565

    I'm beginning to think (hope?) that the West is calling Putin's bluff tonight, having calculated that he lacks the strength for a successful invasion. Either he goes in and gets beaten or he stays out and loses face.
    Agree. They want him to get beaten. Take back Crimea and Donblas and overthrown Putin. Simples.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    My bit on Cressida Dick; whether it remotely matters if a prime minister breaks the law; and the general Absolute State of Things https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/11/farewell-cressida-dick-the-met-chief-only-interested-in-one-thing-ignoring-bad-coppers

    She nicked the idea - Cressida moaning about fictional TV portrayals of the police - from PB. I wrote that as long ago as last June.

    Not the first time PB headers get "borrowed" from by paid journalists.They could at least credit PB, OGH and his wonderful header writers. (Or share their fee .....?)

    Humph ....😡
    Influencing journalists used to be the point of pb. Around 2010 I used to wonder if I was the only PBer who was not a CCHQ-sponsored astroturfer, especially on Wednesday lunchtimes when pb would be full of messages about David Cameron's triumph at PMQs, even when it was clear he'd been KO'd by the clunking great fist. :smile:
    Talking of GCHQ-sponsored astroturfers what on earth has happened to Philip Thompson? The story so far.....

    from being the most prolific poster since records began his output dried up. This coincided with Partygate.

    He then returned in the guise of Bartholomew Roberts (wasn't that Thatcher's maiden name?) but with a much reduced output.

    Either he REALLY was a GCHQ-sponsored astroturfer who was cleared out with the bathwater of Partygate or a genuine crazy propagandist who couldn't face seeing the man he considered the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill being revealed as a buffoon.
    It was educational watching how strictly liberterian pirate positions survived under scrutiny on here. They never survived, but always reveal new angles on things looking in that particular mirror.

    Whose the nearest thing to Libertarian Pirate still posting?

    The closest thing to St Bart’s positions was not Bojoism but ReformUK. Do we have have ReformUK supporters posting?
  • Tres said:

    Techne UK, 8-9 Feb (NB. UK totals)

    Lab 41% (+1)
    Con 33% (+1)
    LD 9% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-)
    Green 6% (-)
    Oth 7% (-1)

    (changes from 1-2 Feb)

    https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/R4-UK-2022-2-11-DATA.pdf

    Please explain scum, homophobic, racist, misogynistic, absolute vile … banana republic, vile, nasty, Etonian … piece of scum.
    You are going to have to be more precise 🤷‍♀️
    "Only Imperial Stormtroopers are more precise!"
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    stodge said:

    I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.

    IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.
    I don't really understand this bit. The UK government hasn't invented Putin's aggression. So they had two choices, either go along with the rest of the West in recognising it - or ignoring it.

    I'm pretty sure the people complaining Boris is playing it up to shore up his own position would be making the same complaint if he took Putin's side.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    stodge said:

    I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.

    IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.
    I don't really understand this bit. The UK government hasn't invented Putin's aggression. So they had two choices, either go along with the rest of the West in recognising it - or ignoring it.

    I'm pretty sure the people complaining Boris is playing it up to shore up his own position would be making the same complaint if he took Putin's side.
    Well, yes, because everything the PM does is to shore up his own position. Can you really not see that?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    stodge said:

    I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.

    IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.
    I don't really understand this bit. The UK government hasn't invented Putin's aggression. So they had two choices, either go along with the rest of the West in recognising it - or ignoring it.

    I'm pretty sure the people complaining Boris is playing it up to shore up his own position would be making the same complaint if he took Putin's side.
    Well, yes, because everything the PM does is to shore up his own position. Can you really not see that?
    If that is going to be the complaint irrespective of what he does, it's meaningless.
  • Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    stodge said:

    I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.

    IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.
    I don't really understand this bit. The UK government hasn't invented Putin's aggression. So they had two choices, either go along with the rest of the West in recognising it - or ignoring it.

    I'm pretty sure the people complaining Boris is playing it up to shore up his own position would be making the same complaint if he took Putin's side.
    Well, yes, because everything the PM does is to shore up his own position. Can you really not see that?
    If that is going to be the complaint irrespective of what he does, it's meaningless.
    True, but that's what happens when someone's credibility reaches zero.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    stodge said:

    I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.

    IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.
    I don't really understand this bit. The UK government hasn't invented Putin's aggression. So they had two choices, either go along with the rest of the West in recognising it - or ignoring it.

    I'm pretty sure the people complaining Boris is playing it up to shore up his own position would be making the same complaint if he took Putin's side.
    Well, yes, because everything the PM does is to shore up his own position. Can you really not see that?
    If that is going to be the complaint irrespective of what he does, it's meaningless.
    He could apologise and resign, of course.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    stodge said:

    I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.

    IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.
    I don't really understand this bit. The UK government hasn't invented Putin's aggression. So they had two choices, either go along with the rest of the West in recognising it - or ignoring it.

    I'm pretty sure the people complaining Boris is playing it up to shore up his own position would be making the same complaint if he took Putin's side.
    Well, yes, because everything the PM does is to shore up his own position. Can you really not see that?
    If that is going to be the complaint irrespective of what he does, it's meaningless.
    The truth is, He is tottering on a precipice he can’t move away from, everything he now does until he falls in will be seen through the lens of him trying desperately to avoid his imminent fate.
  • Foxy said:


    More or less this:



    Though why then are troops in Belarus and Voronezh?

    Maybe more likely to take everything East of the Dneiper.

    That would be Autumn 1943 repeating itself, including a thrust to the Dneiper from the southern part of the Kursk salient.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    Truss cosplaying Thatcher in Moscow and BoZo wants his Falklands moment.

    WTF did we do to deserve these cretins?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,217
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    If he could grab a cheeky extra little sliver of Ukraine whilst securing Donbass, which area would Putin choose?

    I think this is the plan:

    Pro_Rata said:

    If he could grab a cheeky extra little sliver of Ukraine whilst securing Donbass, which area would Putin choose?

    Mariupol and a land corridor to Crimea
    More or less this:



    Though why then are troops in Belarus and Voronezh?

    Maybe more likely to take everything East of the Dneiper.

    Taking Kiev briefly to trash it and demonstrate the inability of the current government/West to defend it would be worth doing as a punitive expedition, and then Russia can withdraw to a smaller area, which might be accepted by some in the West as a compromise.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,272
    Pulpstar said:
    If those targets are correct, bugger.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited February 2022
    Pulpstar said:
    The British nuclear arsenal alone should be enough to wipe out Moscow and all Russian cities with populations over a million in response with Trident nuclear missiles if that ever occurred

    https://www.quora.com/Does-the-UK-have-enough-nuclear-capability-to-wipe-out-Russia-alone
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

    Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May.

    Economic sanctions on Russia will follow and further military reinforcements sent by NATO to Poland and the Baltic States
    “ Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May. “

    Fact 3x Winner Lady Thatcher voncked out of politics whilst leading the world into the desert war, proves you are utterly wrong in that claim.

    Boris can be voncked and out of politics by this time next week, everything now aligning for that.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:
    The British nuclear arsenal alone should be enough to wipe out Moscow and all Russian cities with populations over a million in response with Trident nuclear missiles

    https://www.quora.com/Does-the-UK-have-enough-nuclear-capability-to-wipe-out-Russia-alone
    Well, that'll be comfort to everyone either incinerated or trying to survive in Threads-land.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,280
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    If those targets are correct, bugger.
    Liking the look of north Devon. Barnestaple has improved in recent years, and there’s always Lundy if the mutant zombies start spreading...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

    Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May.

    Economic sanctions on Russia will follow and further military reinforcements sent by NATO to Poland and the Baltic States
    “ Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May. “

    Fact 3x Winner Lady Thatcher voncked out of politics whilst leading the world into the desert war, proves you are utterly wrong in that claim.

    Boris can be voncked and out of politics by this time next week, everything now aligning for that.
    She was not voiced, Heseltine challenged her and a war with Iraq was a rather different scenario to a looming confrontation with Russia.

    Though unless Russia invaded a NATO state I imagine economic sanctions would do for now
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    If those targets are correct, bugger.
    Liking the look of north Devon. Barnestaple has improved in recent years, and there’s always Lundy if the mutant zombies start spreading...
    Aberystwyth anybody?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,272

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Yes, had that thought as I said bugger. Am within a mile of the centre of town. But still, bugger.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922

    Aberystwyth anybody?

    It's a shame your country estate is so close to a prime target
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:
    The British nuclear arsenal alone should be enough to wipe out Moscow and all Russian cities with populations over a million in response with Trident nuclear missiles

    https://www.quora.com/Does-the-UK-have-enough-nuclear-capability-to-wipe-out-Russia-alone
    A real comfort, when the "sun" rises at midnight...
    stodge said:

    I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.

    IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.

    I suspect there is a deal to be done and as we saw over the negotiations to leave the EU, the public posturing and point-scoring and sabre rattling masks the proper serious work being done to de-escalate all this. There will be concessions to Putin and we must recognise his "face" needs to be saved as much as anyone's from all this.

    He gets a way out, a few calls are made, a few offers are made behind the scenes and it's a small prize for us all to sleep safely in our beds (or someone else's I don't judge).
    Reckon we can get some cheap gas out the deal :) ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    🚨 Excl: A No10 spokesman confirms the prime minister has tonight received a questionnaire from the Metropolitan Police and will respond as required.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,907
    darkage said:

    The question that has been troubling me for many months is as follows: If we are trying to bring up children with no concept of violence, and (from what I can observe at my sons junior school) socialising them out of their aggressive instincts at an early age, then how will we ever defend ourselves against a country like Russia?

    Just have to hope that Russia doesn’t use female or LBTQ+ troops that they will refuse to fight.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Truss cosplaying Thatcher in Moscow and BoZo wants his Falklands moment.

    WTF did we do to deserve these cretins?

    You failed to make a very good case to remain in the EU
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,907
    Pulpstar said:
    The Calmac ferry will be broken down anyway, and its replacement won’t be ready until 2087.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,907
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss cosplaying Thatcher in Moscow and BoZo wants his Falklands moment.

    WTF did we do to deserve these cretins?

    Voted for them.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

    Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May.

    Economic sanctions on Russia will follow and further military reinforcements sent by NATO to Poland and the Baltic States
    “ Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May. “

    Fact 3x Winner Lady Thatcher voncked out of politics whilst leading the world into the desert war, proves you are utterly wrong in that claim.

    Boris can be voncked and out of politics by this time next week, everything now aligning for that.
    She was not voiced, Heseltine challenged her and a war with Iraq was a rather different scenario to a looming confrontation with Russia.

    Though unless Russia invaded a NATO state I imagine economic sanctions would do for now
    Well, it was a vote, and she struggled. The Khaki nature of the foreign situation didn’t mean she was safe till later, what needed to be done went ahead.

    I don’t want to be rude or anything, I’m also not sure “deficit not averaging over ten, so Boris safe” spin stands up either. This I took from a PB header from Mike Smithson. It is Lady Thatchers last polls before being removed. It’s not a succession of plus ten deficits at time her vonc, also Conservative share column is high doesn’t dip below the 35. Boris isn’t breaking 35 for lot of months.

    image


    my analysis is I think now my Dad might be right, 54 Leters could happen any moment regardless of being sure of a vonking win or not.

    Add to that the recollections that at PMQs, her MPs were boisterously for Lady Thatcher around the time of her vonc. Now Boris back benchers rather mooted in chamber, uncommunicative to local media when asked their thoughts.

    Add to that, say he is and always has been electoral catnip might be missing that he is now viewed in different way by so many, as less trustworthy less likeable man. Even if he gets to next election it’s not the Boris of last time or his Mayor wins. his mask has slipped. As Marquee Mark said to help us - it would be a hard sell.

    Add to that, in this current saga, before and post Christmas, a lull in news narrative or closing of polls proves Boris isn’t out the worst, because it doesn’t take much at all and in hours it turns into blitzkrieg on Boris again. That’s a pattern is it not?

    Makes analysis that he hasn’t survived because he can’t now. All he has survived is not toppling into the Abyss yet. A week or so ago I was believing he could move away from the edge of the abyss and go on to fight the next election, but Grays interim report gave the certainty he knew he partied when he told parliament he wasn’t aware of parties, his response to Grays report that day was so abysmal, Johnson can’t move away from the edge now. He is there till he topples in.

    Maybe this week. I’ve got a feeling it is reached in recess, goes ahead week after, he doesn’t even get another PMQ.

    You can bet against MoonRabbit’s feelings on these things if you like 😈
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:
    The British nuclear arsenal alone should be enough to wipe out Moscow and all Russian cities with populations over a million in response with Trident nuclear missiles

    https://www.quora.com/Does-the-UK-have-enough-nuclear-capability-to-wipe-out-Russia-alone
    A real comfort, when the "sun" rises at midnight...
    stodge said:

    I thought Macron was going to save the day? Bloody French.

    IF, and rather like @Heathener, I don't think Putin wants to attack the Ukraine, it will show Johnson and Truss's posturing will have been as unsuccessful as the alternative strategy.

    I suspect there is a deal to be done and as we saw over the negotiations to leave the EU, the public posturing and point-scoring and sabre rattling masks the proper serious work being done to de-escalate all this. There will be concessions to Putin and we must recognise his "face" needs to be saved as much as anyone's from all this.

    He gets a way out, a few calls are made, a few offers are made behind the scenes and it's a small prize for us all to sleep safely in our beds (or someone else's I don't judge).
    Reckon we can get some cheap gas out the deal :) ?
    The whole purpose of the nuclear deterrent is to remind Putin what our response would be if he ever launched a first strike nuclear attack on us
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Excl: A No10 spokesman confirms the prime minister has tonight received a questionnaire from the Metropolitan Police and will respond as required.

    "Where were you on the nights of 20 May 2020, 18 June 2020, 19 June 2020, 13 November 2020, 17 December 2020, 14 January 2021, ..."
  • I check back in after watching another excellent episode of 'dix pour cent' and all the talk is of nuclear war.

    have I missed something?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss cosplaying Thatcher in Moscow and BoZo wants his Falklands moment.

    WTF did we do to deserve these cretins?

    It is not Bozo and Truss amassing thousands of troops and tanks on the Ukranian border, it is Putin
  • "The Pentagon on Friday ordered 3,000 additional troops to Poland, bringing to 5,000 the total number of reinforcements sent to Europe in the past two weeks."

    NY Times blog
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited February 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

    Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May.

    Economic sanctions on Russia will follow and further military reinforcements sent by NATO to Poland and the Baltic States
    “ Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May. “

    Fact 3x Winner Lady Thatcher voncked out of politics whilst leading the world into the desert war, proves you are utterly wrong in that claim.

    Boris can be voncked and out of politics by this time next week, everything now aligning for that.
    She was not voiced, Heseltine challenged her and a war with Iraq was a rather different scenario to a looming confrontation with Russia.

    Though unless Russia invaded a NATO state I imagine economic sanctions would do for now
    Well, it was a vote, and she struggled. The Khaki nature of the foreign situation didn’t mean she was safe till later, what needed to be done went ahead.

    I don’t want to be rude or anything, I’m also not sure “deficit not averaging over ten, so Boris safe” spin stands up either. This I took from a PB header from Mike Smithson. It is Lady Thatchers last polls before being removed. It’s not a succession of plus ten deficits at time her vonc, also Conservative share column is high doesn’t dip below the 35. Boris isn’t breaking 35 for lot of months.

    image


    my analysis is I think now my Dad might be right, 54 Leters could happen any moment regardless of being sure of a vonking win or not.

    Add to that the recollections that at PMQs, her MPs were boisterously for Lady Thatcher around the time of her vonc. Now Boris back benchers rather mooted in chamber, uncommunicative to local media when asked their thoughts.

    Add to that, say he is and always has been electoral catnip might be missing that he is now viewed in different way by so many, as less trustworthy less likeable man. Even if he gets to next election it’s not the Boris of last time or his Mayor wins. his mask has slipped. As Marquee Mark said to help us - it would be a hard sell.

    Add to that, in this current saga, before and post Christmas, a lull in news narrative or closing of polls proves Boris isn’t out the worst, because it doesn’t take much at all and in hours it turns into blitzkrieg on Boris again. That’s a pattern is it not?

    Makes analysis that he hasn’t survived because he can’t now. All he has survived is not toppling into the Abyss yet. A week or so ago I was believing he could move away from the edge of the abyss and go on to fight the next election, but Grays interim report gave the certainty he knew he partied when he told parliament he wasn’t aware of parties, his response to Grays report that day was so abysmal, Johnson can’t move away from the edge now. He is there till he topples in.

    Maybe this week. I’ve got a feeling it is reached in recess, goes ahead week after, he doesn’t even get another PMQ.

    You can bet against MoonRabbit’s feelings on these things if you like 😈
    The 3 polls before Heseltine challenged Thatcher on 14th November 1990 had Labour 21%, 17% and 16% ahead of Thatcher's Tories, the Tory voteshare was 30 to 33%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Excl: A No10 spokesman confirms the prime minister has tonight received a questionnaire from the Metropolitan Police and will respond as required.

    "Where were you on the nights of 20 May 2020, 18 June 2020, 19 June 2020, 13 November 2020, 17 December 2020, 14 January 2021, ..."
    At home. Quietly passing the dull hours of another lockdown. I padded around my house to find people in various rooms but this is normal for my house.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    Andy_JS said:
    The poor couple. Fancy having to look after their own kids. The sheer thought of it.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,207
    edited February 2022

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    "Put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye."
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,907

    I check back in after watching another excellent episode of 'dix pour cent' and all the talk is of nuclear war.

    have I missed something?

    Didn’t you hear the sirens?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

    Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May.

    Economic sanctions on Russia will follow and further military reinforcements sent by NATO to Poland and the Baltic States
    “ Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May. “

    Fact 3x Winner Lady Thatcher voncked out of politics whilst leading the world into the desert war, proves you are utterly wrong in that claim.

    Boris can be voncked and out of politics by this time next week, everything now aligning for that.
    She was not voiced, Heseltine challenged her and a war with Iraq was a rather different scenario to a looming confrontation with Russia.

    Though unless Russia invaded a NATO state I imagine economic sanctions would do for now
    Well, it was a vote, and she struggled. The Khaki nature of the foreign situation didn’t mean she was safe till later, what needed to be done went ahead.

    I don’t want to be rude or anything, I’m also not sure “deficit not averaging over ten, so Boris safe” spin stands up either. This I took from a PB header from Mike Smithson. It is Lady Thatchers last polls before being removed. It’s not a succession of plus ten deficits at time her vonc, also Conservative share column is high doesn’t dip below the 35. Boris isn’t breaking 35 for lot of months.

    image


    my analysis is I think now my Dad might be right, 54 Leters could happen any moment regardless of being sure of a vonking win or not.

    Add to that the recollections that at PMQs, her MPs were boisterously for Lady Thatcher around the time of her vonc. Now Boris back benchers rather mooted in chamber, uncommunicative to local media when asked their thoughts.

    Add to that, say he is and always has been electoral catnip might be missing that he is now viewed in different way by so many, as less trustworthy less likeable man. Even if he gets to next election it’s not the Boris of last time or his Mayor wins. his mask has slipped. As Marquee Mark said to help us - it would be a hard sell.

    Add to that, in this current saga, before and post Christmas, a lull in news narrative or closing of polls proves Boris isn’t out the worst, because it doesn’t take much at all and in hours it turns into blitzkrieg on Boris again. That’s a pattern is it not?

    Makes analysis that he hasn’t survived because he can’t now. All he has survived is not toppling into the Abyss yet. A week or so ago I was believing he could move away from the edge of the abyss and go on to fight the next election, but Grays interim report gave the certainty he knew he partied when he told parliament he wasn’t aware of parties, his response to Grays report that day was so abysmal, Johnson can’t move away from the edge now. He is there till he topples in.

    Maybe this week. I’ve got a feeling it is reached in recess, goes ahead week after, he doesn’t even get another PMQ.

    You can bet against MoonRabbit’s feelings on these things if you like 😈
    The 3 polls before Heseltine challenged Thatcher on 14th November 1990 had Labour 21%, 17% and 16% ahead of Thatcher's Tories, the Tory voteshare was 30 to 33%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Just a feeling after munching my carrots. Boris gone in little over a week. 😉
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:
    The British nuclear arsenal alone should be enough to wipe out Moscow and all Russian cities with populations over a million in response with Trident nuclear missiles if that ever occurred

    https://www.quora.com/Does-the-UK-have-enough-nuclear-capability-to-wipe-out-Russia-alone
    If someone hasn't quoted Yes Prime Minister on this yet I shall be very disappointed.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Scott_xP said:

    Truss cosplaying Thatcher in Moscow and BoZo wants his Falklands moment.

    WTF did we do to deserve these cretins?

    Voted for them.
    Understandably so, since the alternative was Corbyn, who would certainly have been on Putin's side.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,280
    Andy_JS said:
    He sounds a bit of a dick, but if there genuinely was a spare seat, and the nanny had been originally booked in business class, I think the crew stuffed up, got into a pickle and didn’t want to back down. I have a tiny bit of sympathy for him. It’s tiny, but just a smidge, as that would have riled me too. I just wouldn’t have caused enough of a scene to get thrown of the plane.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Truss cosplaying Thatcher in Moscow and BoZo wants his Falklands moment.

    WTF did we do to deserve these cretins?

    It is not Bozo and Truss amassing thousands of troops and tanks on the Ukranian border, it is Putin
    Well quite. Even if people think Boris and Truss are seeking to make use of it somehow, they simply did not create or ask for this scenario.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,907
    Andy_JS said:
    In his case, not a high flying barrister! 😀
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600

    I check back in after watching another excellent episode of 'dix pour cent' and all the talk is of nuclear war.

    have I missed something?

    Didn’t you hear the sirens?
    When I was a kid in the late 1960s I am sure we had a siren at the top of the road that was tested periodically. Have I imagined that?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Actually you mean the last thing you want to do is to die in the initial blast.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Excl: A No10 spokesman confirms the prime minister has tonight received a questionnaire from the Metropolitan Police and will respond as required.

    'Respond as required' is an interesting phrase. Is he 'required' to respond at all?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,280
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Excl: A No10 spokesman confirms the prime minister has tonight received a questionnaire from the Metropolitan Police and will respond as required.

    'Respond as required' is an interesting phrase. Is he 'required' to respond at all?
    You do wonder at all of this. Effectively it’s like the recipients are being asked to admit to doing stuff that will then get them fines/police cautions etc or worse. What is their legal position? Can they answer that they considered themselves to be at work the whole time as no 10 was their workplace? It’s not exactly like the speeding ticket with your car and you in the driving seat. What evidence do the police have?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    "The Pentagon on Friday ordered 3,000 additional troops to Poland, bringing to 5,000 the total number of reinforcements sent to Europe in the past two weeks."

    NY Times blog

    Gonna need more than that to do anything useful.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Yes, had that thought as I said bugger. Am within a mile of the centre of town. But still, bugger.
    I had really hoped that with 1989 all this kind of apocalyptic nonsense would be over for good.

    I'm not sure in my last terrified minutes of life here in east London I would draw any comfort from the knowledge the citizens of Irkutsk or Rostov were going to join me in the next life and large parts of human civilisation would be lost forever.

    My fear is weak leaders like Johnson and Biden will lead us into a conflict rather than do what needs to be done to negotiate a deal with Putin who isn't Peter the Great. My hope is behind the scenes the right people are working hard to de-escalate all this and coming up with a deal, most of which will remain hidden from public view, but will allow everyone to save face.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    As the Met said yesterday that these questionnaires are equivalent to an interview under caution, Boris Johnson takes the dubious honour of being the first PM to be cautioned by police in office.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1492258499748941829
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    edited February 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    As the Met said yesterday that these questionnaires are equivalent to an interview under caution, Boris Johnson takes the dubious honour of being the first PM to be cautioned by police in office.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1492258499748941829

    They said they are 'equivalent' to an interview under caution, but the Met clearly doesn't know a lot of things, so does anyone know if that is true or just bullshit?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    great work tory mps leaving this crippled joke of a pm spending next 7 days bunkered down with lawyers trying to remember all his different lies while another major global crisis unfolds
    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1492259062116925441
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,280
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As the Met said yesterday that these questionnaires are equivalent to an interview under caution, Boris Johnson takes the dubious honour of being the first PM to be cautioned by police in office.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1492258499748941829

    They said they are 'equivalent' to an interview under caution, but the Met clearly doesn't know a lot of things, so does anyone know if that is true or just bullshit?
    Why the actual eff are they not just going in for the day and doing some interviews?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    The need to tell the truth in that police questionnaire is very strong. Remember Chris Huhne went to jail over speeding points - prosecuted when a certain Keir Starmer was DPP.
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1492260068091469828
  • Scott_xP said:

    great work tory mps leaving this crippled joke of a pm spending next 7 days bunkered down with lawyers trying to remember all his different lies while another major global crisis unfolds
    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1492259062116925441

    But surely given what Dom has told us about wonky Johnson, it is better for world peace that he is bogged down with lawyers, leaving the diplomacy and war planning to the likes of serious people like Wallace?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854

    Andy_JS said:
    He sounds a bit of a dick, but if there genuinely was a spare seat, and the nanny had been originally booked in business class, I think the crew stuffed up, got into a pickle and didn’t want to back down. I have a tiny bit of sympathy for him. It’s tiny, but just a smidge, as that would have riled me too. I just wouldn’t have caused enough of a scene to get thrown of the plane.
    I agree. I find for the barrister with costs......next defendant .................Johnson
  • I check back in after watching another excellent episode of 'dix pour cent' and all the talk is of nuclear war.

    have I missed something?

    Didn’t you hear the sirens?
    I thought it was this background hum noise that our @Leon has been on about.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922

    But surely given what Dom has told us about wonky Johnson, it is better for world peace that he is bogged down with lawyers, leaving the diplomacy and war planning to the likes of serious people like Wallace?

    Only BoZo can issue the order, and we know if it comes to it he will faff about until the decision makes itself, probably with a massive body count
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Why am I imagining this questionnaire as "did you do a bad thing Y/N" and then the rest of the page is blank.
  • I check back in after watching another excellent episode of 'dix pour cent' and all the talk is of nuclear war.

    have I missed something?

    Didn’t you hear the sirens?
    When I was a kid in the late 1960s I am sure we had a siren at the top of the road that was tested periodically. Have I imagined that?
    Where I grew up the "all clear" (a single monotone) was often heard summoning reserve firefighters. After the mid-60s they were probably issued with pagers. But I never heard the wailing high-low warning of an impending air raid (except in old movies).
  • Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    If he could grab a cheeky extra little sliver of Ukraine whilst securing Donbass, which area would Putin choose?

    I think this is the plan:

    Pro_Rata said:

    If he could grab a cheeky extra little sliver of Ukraine whilst securing Donbass, which area would Putin choose?

    Mariupol and a land corridor to Crimea
    More or less this:



    Though why then are troops in Belarus and Voronezh?

    Maybe more likely to take everything East of the Dneiper.

    So the Ukrainians and the West don't know where they are going to attack. If you concentrate all your forces in one place for your attack then you are allowing your enemy to prepare their defences accordingly. Far better to make it seem like there are multiple possible avenues of attack so the defenders have to split their forces.

    The Ukrainian military is not likely to be a walkover and since Russia does have large numbers of troops and equipment available then it is a good use of them to keep the Ukrainians guessing.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    stodge said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Yes, had that thought as I said bugger. Am within a mile of the centre of town. But still, bugger.
    I had really hoped that with 1989 all this kind of apocalyptic nonsense would be over for good.

    I'm not sure in my last terrified minutes of life here in east London I would draw any comfort from the knowledge the citizens of Irkutsk or Rostov were going to join me in the next life and large parts of human civilisation would be lost forever.

    My fear is weak leaders like Johnson and Biden will lead us into a conflict rather than do what needs to be done to negotiate a deal with Putin who isn't Peter the Great. My hope is behind the scenes the right people are working hard to de-escalate all this and coming up with a deal, most of which will remain hidden from public view, but will allow everyone to save face.
    The only way of de-escalating the situation is by sending troops in to the Ukraine to help defend its eastern borders. Anything else is appeasement, not de-escalation.
  • I check back in after watching another excellent episode of 'dix pour cent' and all the talk is of nuclear war.

    have I missed something?

    Just googled that and the top "people also ask" is:

    "Is dix poured over cent?"
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    stodge said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Yes, had that thought as I said bugger. Am within a mile of the centre of town. But still, bugger.
    I had really hoped that with 1989 all this kind of apocalyptic nonsense would be over for good.

    I'm not sure in my last terrified minutes of life here in east London I would draw any comfort from the knowledge the citizens of Irkutsk or Rostov were going to join me in the next life and large parts of human civilisation would be lost forever.

    My fear is weak leaders like Johnson and Biden will lead us into a conflict rather than do what needs to be done to negotiate a deal with Putin who isn't Peter the Great. My hope is behind the scenes the right people are working hard to de-escalate all this and coming up with a deal, most of which will remain hidden from public view, but will allow everyone to save face.
    Much as you - and others on here - slag me off for saying I preferred Trump over Biden, this is exactly the reason why I would stand by my choice. There is a reason Putin didn’t try any sh1t when Trump was President and it wasn’t because he was Kompromat. It was because Putin was wary of provoking someone like Trump. Biden is weak but my overriding fear is that, in order to give off the impression of strength, Biden tries too hard and pushes the world into a catastrophe.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    MrEd said:

    stodge said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Yes, had that thought as I said bugger. Am within a mile of the centre of town. But still, bugger.
    I had really hoped that with 1989 all this kind of apocalyptic nonsense would be over for good.

    I'm not sure in my last terrified minutes of life here in east London I would draw any comfort from the knowledge the citizens of Irkutsk or Rostov were going to join me in the next life and large parts of human civilisation would be lost forever.

    My fear is weak leaders like Johnson and Biden will lead us into a conflict rather than do what needs to be done to negotiate a deal with Putin who isn't Peter the Great. My hope is behind the scenes the right people are working hard to de-escalate all this and coming up with a deal, most of which will remain hidden from public view, but will allow everyone to save face.
    Much as you - and others on here - slag me off for saying I preferred Trump over Biden, this is exactly the reason why I would stand by my choice. There is a reason Putin didn’t try any sh1t when Trump was President and it wasn’t because he was Kompromat. It was because Putin was wary of provoking someone like Trump. Biden is weak but my overriding fear is that, in order to give off the impression of strength, Biden tries too hard and pushes the world into a catastrophe.
    And here we see the useful idiots on left and right pushing Russian talking points in order to sell out the Ukrainians. The fact that you leap to blame Biden and the West over Russia invading a sovereign, democratizing country just shows you are either an idiot or completely intellectually dishonest.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

    Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May.

    Economic sanctions on Russia will follow and further military reinforcements sent by NATO to Poland and the Baltic States
    “ Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May. “

    Fact 3x Winner Lady Thatcher voncked out of politics whilst leading the world into the desert war, proves you are utterly wrong in that claim.

    Boris can be voncked and out of politics by this time next week, everything now aligning for that.
    She was not voiced, Heseltine challenged her and a war with Iraq was a rather different scenario to a looming confrontation with Russia.

    Though unless Russia invaded a NATO state I imagine economic sanctions would do for now
    Well, it was a vote, and she struggled. The Khaki nature of the foreign situation didn’t mean she was safe till later, what needed to be done went ahead.

    I don’t want to be rude or anything, I’m also not sure “deficit not averaging over ten, so Boris safe” spin stands up either. This I took from a PB header from Mike Smithson. It is Lady Thatchers last polls before being removed. It’s not a succession of plus ten deficits at time her vonc, also Conservative share column is high doesn’t dip below the 35. Boris isn’t breaking 35 for lot of months.

    image


    my analysis is I think now my Dad might be right, 54 Leters could happen any moment regardless of being sure of a vonking win or not.

    Add to that the recollections that at PMQs, her MPs were boisterously for Lady Thatcher around the time of her vonc. Now Boris back benchers rather mooted in chamber, uncommunicative to local media when asked their thoughts.

    Add to that, say he is and always has been electoral catnip might be missing that he is now viewed in different way by so many, as less trustworthy less likeable man. Even if he gets to next election it’s not the Boris of last time or his Mayor wins. his mask has slipped. As Marquee Mark said to help us - it would be a hard sell.

    Add to that, in this current saga, before and post Christmas, a lull in news narrative or closing of polls proves Boris isn’t out the worst, because it doesn’t take much at all and in hours it turns into blitzkrieg on Boris again. That’s a pattern is it not?

    Makes analysis that he hasn’t survived because he can’t now. All he has survived is not toppling into the Abyss yet. A week or so ago I was believing he could move away from the edge of the abyss and go on to fight the next election, but Grays interim report gave the certainty he knew he partied when he told parliament he wasn’t aware of parties, his response to Grays report that day was so abysmal, Johnson can’t move away from the edge now. He is there till he topples in.

    Maybe this week. I’ve got a feeling it is reached in recess, goes ahead week after, he doesn’t even get another PMQ.

    You can bet against MoonRabbit’s feelings on these things if you like 😈
    The 3 polls before Heseltine challenged Thatcher on 14th November 1990 had Labour 21%, 17% and 16% ahead of Thatcher's Tories, the Tory voteshare was 30 to 33%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Just a feeling after munching my carrots. Boris gone in little over a week. 😉
    What? The great Churchillian war leader.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Andy_JS said:
    He sounds a bit of a dick, but if there genuinely was a spare seat, and the nanny had been originally booked in business class, I think the crew stuffed up, got into a pickle and didn’t want to back down. I have a tiny bit of sympathy for him. It’s tiny, but just a smidge, as that would have riled me too. I just wouldn’t have caused enough of a scene to get thrown of the plane.
    Increasingly, I find a lot of BA staff are rude. From what we’ve been told by one crew member, a lot of BA cabin crew are unhappy because they’ve been shifted to economy from business as the long haul flights have not been operated. Apparently, this has caused a lot of tension.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Aslan said:

    MrEd said:

    stodge said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Yes, had that thought as I said bugger. Am within a mile of the centre of town. But still, bugger.
    I had really hoped that with 1989 all this kind of apocalyptic nonsense would be over for good.

    I'm not sure in my last terrified minutes of life here in east London I would draw any comfort from the knowledge the citizens of Irkutsk or Rostov were going to join me in the next life and large parts of human civilisation would be lost forever.

    My fear is weak leaders like Johnson and Biden will lead us into a conflict rather than do what needs to be done to negotiate a deal with Putin who isn't Peter the Great. My hope is behind the scenes the right people are working hard to de-escalate all this and coming up with a deal, most of which will remain hidden from public view, but will allow everyone to save face.
    Much as you - and others on here - slag me off for saying I preferred Trump over Biden, this is exactly the reason why I would stand by my choice. There is a reason Putin didn’t try any sh1t when Trump was President and it wasn’t because he was Kompromat. It was because Putin was wary of provoking someone like Trump. Biden is weak but my overriding fear is that, in order to give off the impression of strength, Biden tries too hard and pushes the world into a catastrophe.
    And here we see the useful idiots on left and right pushing Russian talking points in order to sell out the Ukrainians. The fact that you leap to blame Biden and the West over Russia invading a sovereign, democratizing country just shows you are either an idiot or completely intellectually dishonest.
    Pushing Russian talking points, how is that? Maybe you ought to engage your brain before you speak.

    Trump didn’t sell out Ukraine because Russia didn’t dare try anything on. Putin was aware that if he fucked with Ukraine, Trump might be up for anything. Hence he didn’t do anything.

    Biden has sold out Ukraine. He’s made it perfectly clear Ukraine is not getting any US help (which, TBF, is a question in itself) and held talks directly with Russia about Ukraine without the participation of the latter.

    There is an idiot in this discussion and - I’ll make it plain because I suspect you are too thick to get irony - it’s you.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443

    I check back in after watching another excellent episode of 'dix pour cent' and all the talk is of nuclear war.

    have I missed something?

    Didn’t you hear the sirens?
    When I was a kid in the late 1960s I am sure we had a siren at the top of the road that was tested periodically. Have I imagined that?
    No. It's correct. I often heard the test.

  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    stodge said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Yes, had that thought as I said bugger. Am within a mile of the centre of town. But still, bugger.
    I had really hoped that with 1989 all this kind of apocalyptic nonsense would be over for good.

    I'm not sure in my last terrified minutes of life here in east London I would draw any comfort from the knowledge the citizens of Irkutsk or Rostov were going to join me in the next life and large parts of human civilisation would be lost forever.

    My fear is weak leaders like Johnson and Biden will lead us into a conflict rather than do what needs to be done to negotiate a deal with Putin who isn't Peter the Great. My hope is behind the scenes the right people are working hard to de-escalate all this and coming up with a deal, most of which will remain hidden from public view, but will allow everyone to save face.
    Yes all the blame is on Johnson and Biden, not the aggressive unprovoked attack on an innocent country whose territorial integrity we have pledged to protect. It is amazing how these supposed liberals want to return to 19th Century Great Power politics, where big countries carve up the little countries between them.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Excl: A No10 spokesman confirms the prime minister has tonight received a questionnaire from the Metropolitan Police and will respond as required.

    'Respond as required' is an interesting phrase. Is he 'required' to respond at all?
    I think so. In the classic phrase, he is helping the police with their enquiries. To decline would be to obstruct the enquiry.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    Exclusive

    Boris Johnson is expected to argue he was working in the Downing Street flat when there the night of the alleged 'Abba Party'.

    Allies are pointing to the part the Sue Gray report which notes the flat has a "dual office and private purpose".
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/11/boris-johnson-receives-questionnaire-police-partygate-investigation/

    Telegraph has previously reported PM was in the flat the night of the gathering on 13 November 2020, after Dominic Cummings left.

    Allegedly Abba music including 'The Winner Takes It All' was heard blaring out. It is one of the events being investigated by the Met.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    MrEd said:

    stodge said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Yes, had that thought as I said bugger. Am within a mile of the centre of town. But still, bugger.
    I had really hoped that with 1989 all this kind of apocalyptic nonsense would be over for good.

    I'm not sure in my last terrified minutes of life here in east London I would draw any comfort from the knowledge the citizens of Irkutsk or Rostov were going to join me in the next life and large parts of human civilisation would be lost forever.

    My fear is weak leaders like Johnson and Biden will lead us into a conflict rather than do what needs to be done to negotiate a deal with Putin who isn't Peter the Great. My hope is behind the scenes the right people are working hard to de-escalate all this and coming up with a deal, most of which will remain hidden from public view, but will allow everyone to save face.
    Much as you - and others on here - slag me off for saying I preferred Trump over Biden, this is exactly the reason why I would stand by my choice. There is a reason Putin didn’t try any sh1t when Trump was President and it wasn’t because he was Kompromat. It was because Putin was wary of provoking someone like Trump. Biden is weak but my overriding fear is that, in order to give off the impression of strength, Biden tries too hard and pushes the world into a catastrophe.
    Putin was a hero for many Trumpites.

    Trump may well have defended Taiwan from China, he certainly would not have defended Ukraine from Putin or even the Baltic States from Putin
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,443
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As the Met said yesterday that these questionnaires are equivalent to an interview under caution, Boris Johnson takes the dubious honour of being the first PM to be cautioned by police in office.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1492258499748941829

    They said they are 'equivalent' to an interview under caution, but the Met clearly doesn't know a lot of things, so does anyone know if that is true or just bullshit?
    Has there been any discussion of the rather obvious question of why they cannot, as in ordinary criminal cases like murder, burglary etc resort to the right of silence - a right which is used all the time both by trouble makers and well advised career criminals.

  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    MrEd said:

    stodge said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:
    In the event of an all out nuclear strike your best bet is to be as close to the point of impact as possible. The last thing you want to do is survive the initial blast.
    Yes, had that thought as I said bugger. Am within a mile of the centre of town. But still, bugger.
    I had really hoped that with 1989 all this kind of apocalyptic nonsense would be over for good.

    I'm not sure in my last terrified minutes of life here in east London I would draw any comfort from the knowledge the citizens of Irkutsk or Rostov were going to join me in the next life and large parts of human civilisation would be lost forever.

    My fear is weak leaders like Johnson and Biden will lead us into a conflict rather than do what needs to be done to negotiate a deal with Putin who isn't Peter the Great. My hope is behind the scenes the right people are working hard to de-escalate all this and coming up with a deal, most of which will remain hidden from public view, but will allow everyone to save face.
    Much as you - and others on here - slag me off for saying I preferred Trump over Biden, this is exactly the reason why I would stand by my choice. There is a reason Putin didn’t try any sh1t when Trump was President and it wasn’t because he was Kompromat. It was because Putin was wary of provoking someone like Trump. Biden is weak but my overriding fear is that, in order to give off the impression of strength, Biden tries too hard and pushes the world into a catastrophe.
    And here we see the useful idiots on left and right pushing Russian talking points in order to sell out the Ukrainians. The fact that you leap to blame Biden and the West over Russia invading a sovereign, democratizing country just shows you are either an idiot or completely intellectually dishonest.
    Pushing Russian talking points, how is that? Maybe you ought to engage your brain before you speak.

    Trump didn’t sell out Ukraine because Russia didn’t dare try anything on. Putin was aware that if he fucked with Ukraine, Trump might be up for anything. Hence he didn’t do anything.

    Biden has sold out Ukraine. He’s made it perfectly clear Ukraine is not getting any US help (which, TBF, is a question in itself) and held talks directly with Russia about Ukraine without the participation of the latter.

    There is an idiot in this discussion and - I’ll make it plain because I suspect you are too thick to get irony - it’s you.
    No, Trump just sold out the Kurds in Syria instead, with the Russians taking over US military bases and taking US arms. Ukraine is his next step after he was emboldened by that fiasco. Ukraine is getting plenty of help from the US in terms of training, weapons, financing and the threat of sanctions if Russia goes ahead. Unfortunately venal, cowardly Europeans, including the government of Germany, are letting the side down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As the Met said yesterday that these questionnaires are equivalent to an interview under caution, Boris Johnson takes the dubious honour of being the first PM to be cautioned by police in office.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1492258499748941829

    They said they are 'equivalent' to an interview under caution, but the Met clearly doesn't know a lot of things, so does anyone know if that is true or just bullshit?
    Has there been any discussion of the rather obvious question of why they cannot, as in ordinary criminal cases like murder, burglary etc resort to the right of silence - a right which is used all the time both by trouble makers and well advised career criminals.

    I imagine its because the criminal inquiry is one thing, but this is about the politics of it - it looks bad enough as it is without also refusing to cooperate, even though that may well be their right. Even if it were certain to end up with fines issued, and there's surely no guarantee, that can be brazened out as not a big deal more than looking to continue to hide from the truth coming out? It was trying that which in part angered the Tory MPs who have put letters in.
This discussion has been closed.