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Southend West: CON does 0.3% better than LAB at B&S in 2016 – politicalbetting.com

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.
    In a way that's the point I'm making. Probably I should have said he's sacked all his advisers except his wife.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,553
    edited February 4

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

    Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

    Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.
    Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed
    Part of the grim satisfaction of the Paterson-Parties-Saville cycle is that each step shows BoJo the man in a worse and worse light.

    Maybe he is just testing the theory that a big enough personality (or stage act) means that your fans will love you no matter what you do.
    Savile is perhaps the starkest British example of getting away with it. Little wonder he’s very much on BJ’s mind.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,159

    ‘It’s not my job to opine on that’ says the Energy Minister opining on the restructuring of Downing Street

    https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1489512644641968130?s=20&t=xPVNnYdg7je8bHbbrVrjIQ

    Was listening to that - to paraphrase his response to whether he would have said what Boris said, Hands said that he has too important a job with the energy situation to be getting involved - Mishal Hussein missed a trick by not firing back “are you saying that energy minister is a more important and busier job than Chancellor as the Chancellor managed to have an opinion on it”
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603
    eek said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

    Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

    Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.
    Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed
    I said yesterday what I think happened.

    It's probably been discussed a few times as an attack line but has always been ruled out.

    Then Bozo wanted something on Monday that allowed him to stay in place while throwing his staff to the wolves and somehow thought of Jimmy Saville and SKS at the CPS. So he used it without thinking about the complete picture and the fact it doesn't actually match the narrative Bozo's wanted to create.

    You can see that the attack line was prepared or approved of by others so it very much looks like Bozo used it as he couldn't think of anything else that allows him to remain in place while he fires everyone else to protect himself.
    You're probably right. A serious misjudgement. When I heard all the news channels leading with it I thought it a lucky break for the film makers. But what I hadn't computed was that Saville was the new Myra Hindley. Just her name and it was front page news.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,593
    Ms. Heathener, more on the basis he survives the VONC, at which point Starmer's odds plummet back to 10 or so and the longer odds can be laid.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 38
    pm215 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Over 1,000 rejected ballots!

    I was idly pondering the other day what I'd have done if I'd been a Southend West voter, and I think I too would have turned in a spoilt ballot. Probably with a message "give us a proper by-election, not this coronation of the tory candidate"...
    I'm not sure we should incentivise the assassination of MPs by guaranteeing a proper by-election. The existing party should remain in the seat until the next general election IMO, as that is what would have been the case had the incumbent not been murdered.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,109
    edited February 4
    Heathener said:

    So Greg Hands claims this morning that the resignations show "that the Prime Minister is taking charge."

    It's pathetic. Were it not for the mess this country is plunging into I'd almost hope they cling on to be given the kicking they deserve in 2024.

    How on earth did the once great Conservative Party produce such pathetic, obsequious, low life like Greg Hands?

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-minister-claims-four-downing-street-resignations-are-prime-minister-taking-charge-minister-says-12532414

    Where are you tories of courage? It may be too late to save your party but at least salvage some dignity: Get up, Stand up.

    Taking charge my ****. They haven't even written the ads for the jobs let alone having any replacements lined up.

    The other three surely jumped knowing they were to be pushed - even the guy who wasn't working there when the parties actually happened - but they jumped nevertheless, and weren't pushed. Johnson was 'saving' them, like prisoners in a dungeon, for the chop as his human sacrifices when the final bad news emerges from Gray and/or the police. The way things are going, there'll be no-one left to sack by then. Except one, obvs.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

    Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

    Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.
    Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed
    I said yesterday what I think happened.

    It's probably been discussed a few times as an attack line but has always been ruled out.

    Then Bozo wanted something on Monday that allowed him to stay in place while throwing his staff to the wolves and somehow thought of Jimmy Saville and SKS at the CPS. So he used it without thinking about the complete picture and the fact it doesn't actually match the narrative Bozo's wanted to create.

    You can see that the attack line was prepared or approved of by others so it very much looks like Bozo used it as he couldn't think of anything else that allows him to remain in place while he fires everyone else to protect himself.
    Yes, if you watched the exchange in the House it's easy to infer that Johnson was panicking and it was just the first thing that came into his head at the time. That would be consistent with the notion that this line of attack had been discussed with his advisers at some stage but he had been warned against it. In his panic he ignored the warning.

    It is also consistent with his blustering, bullshitting debate style.
    It also reflects his approach to things. Throw so many "ideas" out that one may be taken up and change the media's focus away from the thing you don't want them to focus on.

    See for example Boris painting buses and Peppa pig.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160

    Ms. Heathener, more on the basis he survives the VONC, at which point Starmer's odds plummet back to 10 or so and the longer odds can be laid.

    Yep. There's a good logic to that. Like it.

    I think we are going to have a VONC and your scenario is definitely plausible, which makes those odds very good indeed.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277
    edited February 4

    As an aside, if we do actually get a VONC, I'll be looking to put a tiny sum on Starmer at ballooned odds for next PM.

    In a secret ballot do you really see 181 Tory MPs voting to keep Boris for a year when you don't know what / when the next scandal will appear or what the Met Police may say.

    I suspect there will be better odds available say in the Boris leaves on markets.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023
    Heathener said:

    Here's where I 'think' we're at.

    A VONC seems to be pretty likely. I suspect over the next few days sufficient letters will come in to tip the scales.

    Then what?

    I don't think even Johnson's now famous unflushability will be able to secure an outright thumping majority of MPs. He didn't even achieve that three years ago. Remember: even in his heyday in the rounds he still only won 114, 126, 143, 157, 160 out of 317. Hardly a thumping endorsement or a bandwagon. He's not popular in parliament.

    So it'll go one of two ways.

    Either he continues to cling on with, say 75 to 125 MPs, not voting for him. Fatally wounded and incapable of governing because, yep, he's incapable of governing. So things will continue to get worse and worse whilst the turd fails to flush.

    Or he loses it

    Will the Conservative Party really want to see their stock flush into the sewer along with Johnson? Or will they act with their alleged famous decisiveness and ruthlessness?

    p.s. sorry for continuing the scatological metaphors but it's so very appropriate

    To my mind it's now going to be either no VONC, and that gives your "Fatally wounded and incapable of governing" result.

    Or there is a VONC and then the MPs seize that way out with both hands and get rid of him.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,229
    "Ah, but you see, Martha, now that the rats have fled the sinking ship it's less likely to sink. Because now the rats won't be there to weigh it down"
    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1489519359550758912
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,109

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

    Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

    Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.
    Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed
    I said yesterday what I think happened.

    It's probably been discussed a few times as an attack line but has always been ruled out.

    Then Bozo wanted something on Monday that allowed him to stay in place while throwing his staff to the wolves and somehow thought of Jimmy Saville and SKS at the CPS. So he used it without thinking about the complete picture and the fact it doesn't actually match the narrative Bozo's wanted to create.

    You can see that the attack line was prepared or approved of by others so it very much looks like Bozo used it as he couldn't think of anything else that allows him to remain in place while he fires everyone else to protect himself.
    Yes, if you watched the exchange in the House it's easy to infer that Johnson was panicking and it was just the first thing that came into his head at the time. That would be consistent with the notion that this line of attack had been discussed with his advisers at some stage but he had been warned against it. In his panic he ignored the warning.

    It is also consistent with his blustering, bullshitting debate style.
    Yes, I said yesterday that I thought it was spur of the moment, but that clearly wasn't the full story given the revelation that it had been discussed with his aides in advance. It's still possible, and likely, that he didn't enter the chamber intending to use it, but 'flipped' after Starmer finally stepped up and landed some hard blows.

    I saw an analysis of the comment somewhere in the media, which highlighted the short mid-sentence pause for breath before Johnson made the Saville reference, and the insertion of "as far as I can make out" perhaps for safety or perhaps simply recognising that he knew it was untrue.

    (the same commentator noticed that Johnson described Starmer's whole speech as a "tissue of nonsense" rather than the usual "tissue of lies", suggesting this reveals Johnson knew it wasn't lies - more likely IMO it was simply any politician's instinctive avoidance of the word 'lies' in the House).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,593
    Mr. eek, I suspect he'll go, but also that Starmer's odds will be long enough to justify a small bet in case he does not.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,006

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

    Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

    Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.
    Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed
    I said yesterday what I think happened.

    It's probably been discussed a few times as an attack line but has always been ruled out.

    Then Bozo wanted something on Monday that allowed him to stay in place while throwing his staff to the wolves and somehow thought of Jimmy Saville and SKS at the CPS. So he used it without thinking about the complete picture and the fact it doesn't actually match the narrative Bozo's wanted to create.

    You can see that the attack line was prepared or approved of by others so it very much looks like Bozo used it as he couldn't think of anything else that allows him to remain in place while he fires everyone else to protect himself.
    Yes, if you watched the exchange in the House it's easy to infer that Johnson was panicking and it was just the first thing that came into his head at the time. That would be consistent with the notion that this line of attack had been discussed with his advisers at some stage but he had been warned against it. In his panic he ignored the warning.

    It is also consistent with his blustering, bullshitting debate style.
    It's BJ's MO. double down, and then double down again.

    In his privileged world, he's always got away with it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,109
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.
    In a way that's the point I'm making. Probably I should have said he's sacked all his advisers except his wife.
    Bizarrely - and shamefully - announcing his divorce is one thing that would actually go down well with a lot of Tory members, judging from some of the comments you see from them
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,229
    And now Poland scrap VAT on food and energy. Thank god we left the EU so we could do neither.

    https://twitter.com/EmmaKennedy/status/1489519456657326080
    https://twitter.com/marinapurkiss/status/1489517936398241794
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,836

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

    Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

    Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.
    Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed
    Part of the grim satisfaction of the Paterson-Parties-Saville cycle is that each step shows BoJo the man in a worse and worse light.

    Maybe he is just testing the theory that a big enough personality (or stage act) means that your fans will love you no matter what you do.
    Savile is perhaps the starkest British example of getting away with it. Little wonder he’s very much on BJ’s mind.
    Perhaps why the BBC are going after Johnson so hard.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,124
    Scott_xP said:

    And now Poland scrap VAT on food and energy. Thank god we left the EU so we could do neither.

    https://twitter.com/EmmaKennedy/status/1489519456657326080
    https://twitter.com/marinapurkiss/status/1489517936398241794

    Um most food is zero rated.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,133
    eek said:

    Three council by-elections - no evidence of the electorate wanting to give the Tories a kicking either - and in Leicester they almost took a seat from Labour:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489402280394768389?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489391144937132033?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

    People will read into it what they want - from proof of Johnson’s electoral appeal to his departure being priced in.

    Labour's vote went down significantly in all 3 by-elections, I doubt anyone expected that. These remain very strange political times. Imagine Blair having by-election results like this in 1995.
    For the tory vote to go up 12.9% in Leicester with the current political turmoil is madness.
    Leicester - A labour run council with problems and yet they still won
    Dacorum (so Hemel Hempstead) Tory trending Lib Dem and the labour vote switched to the opposition candidate.

    Manchester - there is signs of people not wanting a Labour controlled council - some opposition is useful.

    I don't see anything much here except a slight sign of anti-Tory voting and some a vote against the local Government. Outside of Hemel it tells us nothing really.
    Apart from the local factors (the racism allegations of the resigning Labour councillor in Manchester; Claudia Webbe's issues in Leicester) I think there's a general tendency of voters in places which are completely dominated by one party to feel someone else should have a say too. In fairness I'd include the Lewes result in the same bracket - a Town Council vote but a large one (1000 votes). Lewes is dominated by LibDems and Greens, and the election produced the first Labour councillor for decades. I've no idea whether there were local factors there too, though.

    Also at a micro-level, the Psychedelic second place in Southend shows that "something" beats "nothing". The name will have appealed to people who want drugs legalised, whereas all the other candidates except UKIP sounded just obscure. Poor UKIP...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,109

    Mr. eek, I suspect he'll go, but also that Starmer's odds will be long enough to justify a small bet in case he does not.

    Laying Starmer as next PM looks a decent position to me, covering all the scenarios where the clown hangs up his balls before the election plus the increasingly remote one where he somehow survives and wins again.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

    Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

    Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.
    Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed
    I said yesterday what I think happened.

    It's probably been discussed a few times as an attack line but has always been ruled out.

    Then Bozo wanted something on Monday that allowed him to stay in place while throwing his staff to the wolves and somehow thought of Jimmy Saville and SKS at the CPS. So he used it without thinking about the complete picture and the fact it doesn't actually match the narrative Bozo's wanted to create.

    You can see that the attack line was prepared or approved of by others so it very much looks like Bozo used it as he couldn't think of anything else that allows him to remain in place while he fires everyone else to protect himself.
    Yes, if you watched the exchange in the House it's easy to infer that Johnson was panicking and it was just the first thing that came into his head at the time. That would be consistent with the notion that this line of attack had been discussed with his advisers at some stage but he had been warned against it. In his panic he ignored the warning.

    It is also consistent with his blustering, bullshitting debate style.
    It's BJ's MO. double down, and then double down again.

    In his privileged world, he's always got away with it.
    And even if he didn't (remember he's been sacked multiple times) he (somehow) bounced back...

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,133
    edited February 4
    A creditable effort by Heseltine, now 88 years old, on the challenges of levelling up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/03/levelling-up-michael-gove-regional-inequalities
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 285
    Jamei said:

    pm215 said:


    I was idly pondering the other day what I'd have done if I'd been a Southend West voter, and I think I too would have turned in a spoilt ballot. Probably with a message "give us a proper by-election, not this coronation of the tory candidate"...

    I'm not sure we should incentivise the assassination of MPs by guaranteeing a proper by-election. The existing party should remain in the seat until the next general election IMO, as that is what would have been the case had the incumbent not been murdered.
    Nobody is assassinating MPs in the hopes of getting a byelection, though. They do it for publicity, or a personal grudge, or to intimidate public figures into not speaking out on some issue, or sny of a hundred more likely motives than "perhaps I can shift the government from an 80 seat majority to 78 to zero practical effect". (In particular if this was the motive the killer would have picked an MP in a marginal!) We should treat this particular type of death-in-office the same as if the MP had had a heart attack or been run over by a bus.

    If you want to argue that *all* deaths of MPs should result in an MP of the same party taking over for the rest of the term, I think there's actually a fair case for that given that in practice voters mostly vote for parties, not individuals.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.
    In a way that's the point I'm making. Probably I should have said he's sacked all his advisers except his wife.
    Bizarrely - and shamefully - announcing his divorce is one thing that would actually go down well with a lot of Tory members, judging from some of the comments you see from them
    Definitely a lot of misogyny around but it's also because she's perceived as the one behind his left-wing green policies, amongst a load of other alleged character defects.

    Johnson has managed to piss off the whole party. Not even Theresa May managed that.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,413
    As an aside does a VO(N)C need >=15% of the Tory whip to write to Brady or >15%.

    In other words, has the election in Southend West, which means 360, according to Wikipedia, now take the whip, raised the threshold to 55 or not?

    (Can't see any prospect of whip unsuspensions helping, though were excuses to suspend to be forthcoming......).
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,036
    I can finally see BoJo going. He's always been the master of 'masterly inactivity' which isn't a bad tactic for a PM as long as you know what's going on. And, crucially, you appoint the right people.

    When he's too lazy to even finish a sentence, he isn't going to stir himself to fix things until it's too late. Especially because he has an inflated view of his own competence. It's farewell to the Frankie Howerd tribute band and hello to Mr Boring. That will be the flavour required for the next year or so.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,881
    LOL UKIP beaten into 3rd place by the Psychedelic Movement. They are back to the lunatic fringe where they belong. It is an irony that much of their strength and funding came from the European Parliament. What is the point of them now? Time to close the shop.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277
    pm215 said:

    Jamei said:

    pm215 said:


    I was idly pondering the other day what I'd have done if I'd been a Southend West voter, and I think I too would have turned in a spoilt ballot. Probably with a message "give us a proper by-election, not this coronation of the tory candidate"...

    I'm not sure we should incentivise the assassination of MPs by guaranteeing a proper by-election. The existing party should remain in the seat until the next general election IMO, as that is what would have been the case had the incumbent not been murdered.
    Nobody is assassinating MPs in the hopes of getting a byelection, though. They do it for publicity, or a personal grudge, or to intimidate public figures into not speaking out on some issue, or sny of a hundred more likely motives than "perhaps I can shift the government from an 80 seat majority to 78 to zero practical effect". (In particular if this was the motive the killer would have picked an MP in a marginal!) We should treat this particular type of death-in-office the same as if the MP had had a heart attack or been run over by a bus.

    If you want to argue that *all* deaths of MPs should result in an MP of the same party taking over for the rest of the term, I think there's actually a fair case for that given that in practice voters mostly vote for parties, not individuals.
    But while voters mostly vote for parties that isn't how our electoral system is designed to work, we vote for individuals.

    Once again someone (you) is accidently saying we need to redesign or electoral system and I suspect (once again) that you don't really want that.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,836
    DavidL said:

    LOL UKIP beaten into 3rd place by the Psychedelic Movement. They are back to the lunatic fringe where they belong. It is an irony that much of their strength and funding came from the European Parliament. What is the point of them now? Time to close the shop.

    Huh? Neo-UKIP are in government. Led by the BoZo the Unflushable Turd.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,742
    Scott_xP said:

    "Ah, but you see, Martha, now that the rats have fled the sinking ship it's less likely to sink. Because now the rats won't be there to weigh it down"
    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1489519359550758912

    King Rat is still there.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,593
    Mr. B2, I think I'm green whoever's next PM. Right now, it seems slightly likelier the Conservatives might actually throw the clown off the throne, but it's still far from certain.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,912

    A creditable effort by Heseltine, now 88 years old, on the challenges of levelling up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/03/levelling-up-michael-gove-regional-inequalities

    I think this was better by Aditya Chakrabortty:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/02/a-tale-of-two-towns-one-in-the-north-one-in-the-south-exposes-the-lie-of-levelling-up

    It effectively shows my doubts when 'levelling up' so often means 'become more like London'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,912
    I see that Martin 'bring your own booze' Reynolds is to 'return to a role at the Foreign Office' according to the BBC.

    Does the Foreign Office have a role for an incompetent fuckwit ?
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 285
    edited February 4
    eek said:

    pm215 said:


    If you want to argue that *all* deaths of MPs should result in an MP of the same party taking over for the rest of the term, I think there's actually a fair case for that given that in practice voters mostly vote for parties, not individuals.

    But while voters mostly vote for parties that isn't how our electoral system is designed to work, we vote for individuals.

    Once again someone (you) is accidently saying we need to redesign or electoral system and I suspect (once again) that you don't really want that.
    That's my point -- if our system is a "vote for individuals" then the voters of Southend West should be offered a full choice of new individuals to vote for -- the "coronation of another Tory" approach is counter to the system as it supposedly is today.

    I would in fact be entirely happy to have our electoral system redesigned, preferably to something proportional with multiple MPs representing an area. (I voted for AV in the referendum on the basis that while it wasn't ideal it was at least a move away from the status quo and would make it easier to get further future changes later.)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023
    The BBC reports that Conservative MP Huw Merriman says Boris Johnson had better shape up. Because he needs a man ...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,428
    DavidL said:

    LOL UKIP beaten into 3rd place by the Psychedelic Movement. They are back to the lunatic fringe where they belong. It is an irony that much of their strength and funding came from the European Parliament. What is the point of them now? Time to close the shop.

    It says something that a party that belongs on the lunatic fringe has seen the party of government adopt its platform and managed to effect the most significant change in our economic and foreign policy in a generation. A case of the lunatics taking over the asylum.
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 198
    If we assume big dog is in fact now big glue thoughts turn to succession.

    Sunak and co are clearly in pole and supported by Dom but I have a feeling that may come to be a great weakness. Firstly backbenchers hate Cummings and secondly the Rishi gang are to an extent continuity Boris. The desire to reboot may mean the various clean skins are under-priced.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,108
    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.
    In a way that's the point I'm making. Probably I should have said he's sacked all his advisers except his wife.
    Bizarrely - and shamefully - announcing his divorce is one thing that would actually go down well with a lot of Tory members, judging from some of the comments you see from them
    Definitely a lot of misogyny around but it's also because she's perceived as the one behind his left-wing green policies, amongst a load of other alleged character defects.

    Johnson has managed to piss off the whole party. Not even Theresa May managed that.
    But was Theresa May even trying to do that?
  • Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    Two big challenges for Sunak.

    One is that he might end up being Johnson with better control of his trousers. He's just as willing to be utterly dishonest;

    That Sunak article in the Sun is pretty extraordinary. He cites a "colder than usual winter" meaning we've "used up more of our gas stores". But the Tories shut down three quarters of the UK's gas storage in 2017, and so far this winter has been one of the mildest on record.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1489365733985427460?t=OcwK8ABybocAiBGpL87zag&s=19

    The other is that, whatever the government does, we're all about to have a year of being noticeably poorer. Governments don't usually survive that.

    Sunak's best medium-term bet was to replace Johnson in autumn '23, greenhouse some green shoots, cut a few taxes and win in spring '24.

    Sunak's problem is that he can't keep Johnson viable that long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    edited February 4

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
    Fine Gael 21% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
    Greens 6 (-1)
    Social Democrats 5 (+2)
    Labour 4 (nc)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
    Aontú 2 (nc)
    others/independents 12 (-2)

    (Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

    When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
    It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.
    - “When do we get one in Norn?”

    The last one was just a couple of weeks ago:

    ‘Disaster for DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as Sinn Fein extends lead to eight points’
    - DUP chief the least popular leader in NI by a considerable margin

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/disaster-for-dup-leader-jeffrey-donaldson-as-sinn-fein-extends-lead-to-eight-points-41266170.html

    - “How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?”

    The Ulster Unionists hate everybody, including, and especially, themselves.

    - “It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.”

    So, the DUP are quintessentially Irish? Ho ho. That’s you off their ‘Jesus was a Protestant’ Christmas card list.
    76% of DUP voters and 98% of TUV voters wanted the DUP to collapse Stormont before the elections until the NIP protocol was scrapped.

    In that poll you link to the combined DUP and TUV vote is 29% ahead of SF on 25%. If this unites the hardline loyalist vote behind the DUP it could put the DUP in front again

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486638991688577025?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486305570902745097?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,428

    I see that Martin 'bring your own booze' Reynolds is to 'return to a role at the Foreign Office' according to the BBC.

    Does the Foreign Office have a role for an incompetent fuckwit ?

    Boris Johnson ran it for a whole, so...
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277
    pm215 said:

    eek said:


    But while voters mostly vote for parties that isn't how our electoral system is designed to work, we vote for individuals.

    Once again someone (you) is accidently saying we need to redesign or electoral system and I suspect (once again) that you don't really want that.

    That's my point -- if our system is a "vote for individuals" then the voters of Southend West should be offered a full choice of new individuals to vote for -- the "coronation of another Tory" approach is counter to the system as it supposedly is today.

    I would in fact be entirely happy to have our electoral system redesigned, preferably to something proportional with multiple MPs representing an area. (I voted for AV in the referendum on the basis that while it wasn't ideal it was at least a move away from the status quo and would make it easier to get further future changes later.)
    The issue there is there is a significant difference between a person dying of natural causes and a person dying being killed. The former is clearly a trigger for another representative, the latter has the additional risk that you don't want to encourage other people to murder an MP for political reasons / gain.

    But our electoral system is a historic cludge so it's not surprising that we don't have a solution.

    Personally I would prefer multiple seat constituencies (each with 5 or so seats) but named candidates. Then were a byelection required one wouldn't occur but the person with the next highest votes for that candidate's party would become the replacement MP until the next election.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,428

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    Two big challenges for Sunak.

    One is that he might end up being Johnson with better control of his trousers. He's just as willing to be utterly dishonest;

    That Sunak article in the Sun is pretty extraordinary. He cites a "colder than usual winter" meaning we've "used up more of our gas stores". But the Tories shut down three quarters of the UK's gas storage in 2017, and so far this winter has been one of the mildest on record.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1489365733985427460?t=OcwK8ABybocAiBGpL87zag&s=19

    The other is that, whatever the government does, we're all about to have a year of being noticeably poorer. Governments don't usually survive that.

    Sunak's best medium-term bet was to replace Johnson in autumn '23, greenhouse some green shoots, cut a few taxes and win in spring '24.

    Sunak's problem is that he can't keep Johnson viable that long.
    What is it about Brexiteers and the truth?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 730

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    Two big challenges for Sunak.

    One is that he might end up being Johnson with better control of his trousers. He's just as willing to be utterly dishonest;

    That Sunak article in the Sun is pretty extraordinary. He cites a "colder than usual winter" meaning we've "used up more of our gas stores". But the Tories shut down three quarters of the UK's gas storage in 2017, and so far this winter has been one of the mildest on record.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1489365733985427460?t=OcwK8ABybocAiBGpL87zag&s=19

    The other is that, whatever the government does, we're all about to have a year of being noticeably poorer. Governments don't usually survive that.

    Sunak's best medium-term bet was to replace Johnson in autumn '23, greenhouse some green shoots, cut a few taxes and win in spring '24.

    Sunak's problem is that he can't keep Johnson viable that long.
    There is footage out there of Peter Bone effectively calling Rishi Sunak a socialist via a question in the House of Commons. And footage of his wobbly, hollow reply.

    That's Rishi Sunak's problem, right there.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,027

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.

    However, I agree that it looks awful, but I stick with the thought that he doesn't jump; he has to be pushed. And unless he is, and pushed hard, he'll stay.

    And I recommend, in this context, Andrew Murrison's piece in the Guardian.
    Little point me writing to my MP about Johnson I see, for it is Murrison.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,981

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    Two big challenges for Sunak.

    One is that he might end up being Johnson with better control of his trousers. He's just as willing to be utterly dishonest;

    That Sunak article in the Sun is pretty extraordinary. He cites a "colder than usual winter" meaning we've "used up more of our gas stores". But the Tories shut down three quarters of the UK's gas storage in 2017, and so far this winter has been one of the mildest on record.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1489365733985427460?t=OcwK8ABybocAiBGpL87zag&s=19

    The other is that, whatever the government does, we're all about to have a year of being noticeably poorer. Governments don't usually survive that.

    Sunak's best medium-term bet was to replace Johnson in autumn '23, greenhouse some green shoots, cut a few taxes and win in spring '24.

    Sunak's problem is that he can't keep Johnson viable that long.
    As Chancellor during a depression, in minds, if not statistics, would do for him anyway if he left it that late. His window is between now and Easter, then closing quickly behind him
  • I never realised Southend could be so Psychedelic. Perhaps more interesting than it looks, like some of those other newly fashionable seaside towns such as Margate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,881
    edited February 4

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    Two big challenges for Sunak.

    One is that he might end up being Johnson with better control of his trousers. He's just as willing to be utterly dishonest;

    That Sunak article in the Sun is pretty extraordinary. He cites a "colder than usual winter" meaning we've "used up more of our gas stores". But the Tories shut down three quarters of the UK's gas storage in 2017, and so far this winter has been one of the mildest on record.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1489365733985427460?t=OcwK8ABybocAiBGpL87zag&s=19

    The other is that, whatever the government does, we're all about to have a year of being noticeably poorer. Governments don't usually survive that.

    Sunak's best medium-term bet was to replace Johnson in autumn '23, greenhouse some green shoots, cut a few taxes and win in spring '24.

    Sunak's problem is that he can't keep Johnson viable that long.
    You are being far too parochial. The consumption of gas in the UK is at most a marginal effect on the global price. North America has had a colder winter with snow in places like Florida and Texas. This has meant that the US has exported less gas. The "reserves" bit is more questionable, I would admit. Although what has been happening to gas prices in Germany suggests that they provide only short term protection.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,633
    Good results for the Lib Dems last night and for the last few Thursdays, belying their mediocre standing in the national polls. After the mistakes of the last election when they overreached badly, I think Davey's best bet is to keep the party as a reasonably blank canvas, the sensible centre, and not do too much to scare the horses but do the occasional thing to stay in the news. A good performance in blue wall regions in the May elections would be ideal.

    The Lib Dems should stand to suck up a lot of tactical votes in 2024 given the Starmer-Davey dynamic. Whilst they have quite stark ideological differences, stylistically they are similar. Both fairly dull and dependable by comparison with Boris, neither looks like he would mug your granny or start a revolution.

    One risk with the council elections is if these give distorted results that muddy the waters about who is the best placed challenger to the Tories at the GE. We saw a lot of that in 2019 although I think that was probably the high water mark for confusion about voting choices, given how Brexit dominated everything.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.

    However, I agree that it looks awful, but I stick with the thought that he doesn't jump; he has to be pushed. And unless he is, and pushed hard, he'll stay.

    And I recommend, in this context, Andrew Murrison's piece in the Guardian.
    Carrie has had a reasonably free ride because it isn't polite to call someone 'Lady Macbeth' anymore. However anyone who knows the play will know that it's a toss up who is worse Lady M or Big M himself! I think the Scottish play is an almost perfect match for those two. As for the three witches....take your pick
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,912

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    Two big challenges for Sunak.

    One is that he might end up being Johnson with better control of his trousers. He's just as willing to be utterly dishonest;

    That Sunak article in the Sun is pretty extraordinary. He cites a "colder than usual winter" meaning we've "used up more of our gas stores". But the Tories shut down three quarters of the UK's gas storage in 2017, and so far this winter has been one of the mildest on record.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1489365733985427460?t=OcwK8ABybocAiBGpL87zag&s=19

    The other is that, whatever the government does, we're all about to have a year of being noticeably poorer. Governments don't usually survive that.

    Sunak's best medium-term bet was to replace Johnson in autumn '23, greenhouse some green shoots, cut a few taxes and win in spring '24.

    Sunak's problem is that he can't keep Johnson viable that long.
    Extra gas storage, while being good for security of supply, isn't going to stop price rises after a certain time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,981
    HYUFD said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
    Fine Gael 21% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
    Greens 6 (-1)
    Social Democrats 5 (+2)
    Labour 4 (nc)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
    Aontú 2 (nc)
    others/independents 12 (-2)

    (Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

    When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
    It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.
    - “When do we get one in Norn?”

    The last one was just a couple of weeks ago:

    ‘Disaster for DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as Sinn Fein extends lead to eight points’
    - DUP chief the least popular leader in NI by a considerable margin

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/disaster-for-dup-leader-jeffrey-donaldson-as-sinn-fein-extends-lead-to-eight-points-41266170.html

    - “How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?”

    The Ulster Unionists hate everybody, including, and especially, themselves.

    - “It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.”

    So, the DUP are quintessentially Irish? Ho ho. That’s you off their ‘Jesus was a Protestant’ Christmas card list.
    76% of DUP voters and 98% of TUV voters wanted the DUP to collapse Stormont before the elections until the NIP protocol was scrapped.

    In that poll you link to the combined DUP and TUV vote is 29% ahead of SF on 25%. If this unites the hardline loyalist vote behind the DUP it could put the DUP in front again

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486638991688577025?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486305570902745097?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg
    You do write some utter guff (using questionable statistics to back your wild assertions) about the politics of Northern Ireland.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,881
    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.

    However, I agree that it looks awful, but I stick with the thought that he doesn't jump; he has to be pushed. And unless he is, and pushed hard, he'll stay.

    And I recommend, in this context, Andrew Murrison's piece in the Guardian.
    Carrie has had a reasonably free ride because it isn't polite to call someone 'Lady Macbeth' anymore. However anyone who knows the play will know that it's a toss up who is worse Lady M or Big M himself! I think the Scottish play is an almost perfect match for those two. As for the three witches....take your pick
    "By the pricking of my thumbs something wicked this way comes." Shakespear is full of great lines but for me that is right up there. By the end of the play MacBeth has gone well beyond his wife.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 285
    eek said:


    The issue there is there is a significant difference between a person dying of natural causes and a person dying being killed. The former is clearly a trigger for another representative, the latter has the additional risk that you don't want to encourage other people to murder an MP for political reasons / gain.

    As I say, I simply disagree that "normal byelection held in the normal way" is offering any significant extra incentive to anybody to murder an MP. Unless there's some good evidence that it does, there's no reason to treat it any differently in my view.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    edited February 4

    HYUFD said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
    Fine Gael 21% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
    Greens 6 (-1)
    Social Democrats 5 (+2)
    Labour 4 (nc)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
    Aontú 2 (nc)
    others/independents 12 (-2)

    (Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

    When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
    It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.
    - “When do we get one in Norn?”

    The last one was just a couple of weeks ago:

    ‘Disaster for DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as Sinn Fein extends lead to eight points’
    - DUP chief the least popular leader in NI by a considerable margin

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/disaster-for-dup-leader-jeffrey-donaldson-as-sinn-fein-extends-lead-to-eight-points-41266170.html

    - “How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?”

    The Ulster Unionists hate everybody, including, and especially, themselves.

    - “It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.”

    So, the DUP are quintessentially Irish? Ho ho. That’s you off their ‘Jesus was a Protestant’ Christmas card list.
    76% of DUP voters and 98% of TUV voters wanted the DUP to collapse Stormont before the elections until the NIP protocol was scrapped.

    In that poll you link to the combined DUP and TUV vote is 29% ahead of SF on 25%. If this unites the hardline loyalist vote behind the DUP it could put the DUP in front again

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486638991688577025?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486305570902745097?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg
    You do write some utter guff (using questionable statistics to back your wild assertions) about the politics of Northern Ireland.
    Donaldson has just done what he needed to do to regain DUP voters lost to TUV as Johnson did what he needed to do to regain Tory voters lost to the Brexit Party in 2019
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 730

    If we assume big dog is in fact now big glue thoughts turn to succession.

    Sunak and co are clearly in pole and supported by Dom but I have a feeling that may come to be a great weakness. Firstly backbenchers hate Cummings and secondly the Rishi gang are to an extent continuity Boris. The desire to reboot may mean the various clean skins are under-priced.

    Cleanskins are absolutely under-priced, and the tories have form for clean skins.

    The worst is ahead for the tories, when those bills land on the mat and taxes fillet paypackets.

    Sunak's decision to call himself a sound money man will not stand up to scrutiny when you look at his track record. Nothing could be further from the case.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,341
    pm215 said:

    eek said:


    The issue there is there is a significant difference between a person dying of natural causes and a person dying being killed. The former is clearly a trigger for another representative, the latter has the additional risk that you don't want to encourage other people to murder an MP for political reasons / gain.

    As I say, I simply disagree that "normal byelection held in the normal way" is offering any significant extra incentive to anybody to murder an MP. Unless there's some good evidence that it does, there's no reason to treat it any differently in my view.
    Check out the Brighton Bombing....

    The cynic in me says that when it was discovered that non-Conservative MPs could be subject to terroristic/loony* murder that it suddenly;y became a thing.

    *There is a considerable overlap between the two categories, in my view. David Copeland for a start....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    Though Sunak did offer measures to help with rising energy prices too last night
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    I see that Martin 'bring your own booze' Reynolds is to 'return to a role at the Foreign Office' according to the BBC.

    Does the Foreign Office have a role for an incompetent fuckwit ?

    In his defence I suspect he was merely doing his master's bidding. Johnson does not have the decency to fess up though.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,327
    Boris is the Liar in Chief. But the entire Tory party - with a few rare exceptions - are now lying about pretty much everything every time they come on air.

    The idea that there are all these honest replacements waiting to take over if only Boris were to leave is just so much whistling in the dark by Tories and their supporters, some of them on here.

    Their hands are "stepped in" blood quite as far as everyone else, if we want to continue with the Macbeth theme.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754

    HYUFD said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
    Fine Gael 21% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
    Greens 6 (-1)
    Social Democrats 5 (+2)
    Labour 4 (nc)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
    Aontú 2 (nc)
    others/independents 12 (-2)

    (Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

    When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
    It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.
    - “When do we get one in Norn?”

    The last one was just a couple of weeks ago:

    ‘Disaster for DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as Sinn Fein extends lead to eight points’
    - DUP chief the least popular leader in NI by a considerable margin

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/disaster-for-dup-leader-jeffrey-donaldson-as-sinn-fein-extends-lead-to-eight-points-41266170.html

    - “How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?”

    The Ulster Unionists hate everybody, including, and especially, themselves.

    - “It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.”

    So, the DUP are quintessentially Irish? Ho ho. That’s you off their ‘Jesus was a Protestant’ Christmas card list.
    76% of DUP voters and 98% of TUV voters wanted the DUP to collapse Stormont before the elections until the NIP protocol was scrapped.

    In that poll you link to the combined DUP and TUV vote is 29% ahead of SF on 25%. If this unites the hardline loyalist vote behind the DUP it could put the DUP in front again

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486638991688577025?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486305570902745097?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg
    You do write some utter guff (using questionable statistics to back your wild assertions) about the politics of Northern Ireland.
    He is an insensitive oaf who knows nothing about the subject or the subtle nuances of the subject. It seriously wound me up yesterday, so I think I will just ignore him today.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,768
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    Absolutely agree with this. Partygate will be meh for many. Meanwhile, I think the national expectation (whether justified or not) was for the good times to roll/roaring twenties post-pandemic.

    That is manifestly not going to be the case with grim reality dominating the newswires now.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,534
    edited February 4
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

    Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

    Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.
    I'm not surprised. She does come across as one of the few honest brokers in this whole sordid business
    Honest? I know that there is this rush to canonise everyone who resigns as some sort of saint just because on this one occasion they say something the hearer agrees with. But really. She's been his principal adviser for 14 years, apparently essential to him. So she's been a large part of creating and sustaining the problem he is. Let's not forget her responsibility for that.

    She has also been described as his key policy advisor. And what might those amazing policies be, then? Because it's hard to think of any which have amounted to anything more than bluster.
    Heathener said:

    And Rishi Sunak has risen in my estimation.

    I think Keir Starmer should fear him.


    Really? Starmer should have no difficulty unpicking the untruths set out by Sunak in his latest Sun article - the claim that our gas supplies are so low because of the terrible winter we've been having when the reality is the opposite. It has not been a bad winter and it was this government's decision to shut down three-quarters of the country's gas storage in 2017 which has made energy supplies more difficult than they might otherwise be.

    Two easily disproved lies by PB's now favourite Tory - Sunak.

    I hope Starmer goes for him.
    The Natural Gas storage factor is indeed far too often ignored by the press in the current debate. On the question of Munira Mirza, she has a very strange background in that cultish group around Frank Furedi, communists turned revolutionary capitalists obsessed with "modernity" , at all costs.
    This strange group are are also behind Spiked/Living Marxism/ all their other many and diverse incarnations , etc.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Southend West was OK for the Tories, arguably marginally better than expected for the Tories as I expected them to get 10-12K votes.

    I don't think too much can be read into it though and probably would have had a similar result to Old Bexley and Sidcup if it was a 'normal' by election.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.

    However, I agree that it looks awful, but I stick with the thought that he doesn't jump; he has to be pushed. And unless he is, and pushed hard, he'll stay.

    And I recommend, in this context, Andrew Murrison's piece in the Guardian.
    Carrie has had a reasonably free ride because it isn't polite to call someone 'Lady Macbeth' anymore. However anyone who knows the play will know that it's a toss up who is worse Lady M or Big M himself! I think the Scottish play is an almost perfect match for those two. As for the three witches....take your pick
    "By the pricking of my thumbs something wicked this way comes." Shakespear is full of great lines but for me that is right up there. By the end of the play MacBeth has gone well beyond his wife.
    Rishi ..................'Is this a dagger I see before me?'
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,104
    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    Though Sunak did offer measures to help with rising energy prices too last night
    "measures" :lol:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,868

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    Two big challenges for Sunak.

    One is that he might end up being Johnson with better control of his trousers. He's just as willing to be utterly dishonest;

    That Sunak article in the Sun is pretty extraordinary. He cites a "colder than usual winter" meaning we've "used up more of our gas stores". But the Tories shut down three quarters of the UK's gas storage in 2017, and so far this winter has been one of the mildest on record.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1489365733985427460?t=OcwK8ABybocAiBGpL87zag&s=19

    The other is that, whatever the government does, we're all about to have a year of being noticeably poorer. Governments don't usually survive that.

    Sunak's best medium-term bet was to replace Johnson in autumn '23, greenhouse some green shoots, cut a few taxes and win in spring '24.

    Sunak's problem is that he can't keep Johnson viable that long.
    Extra gas storage, while being good for security of supply, isn't going to stop price rises after a certain time.
    That Yar-Boo tweet is overreaching.

    It was a facility provided by Centrica not the government, and was at the end of it's life.

    To renew / renovate was costed at around £1 billion.

    What would you have done?

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a0c1010ed915d0ade60db73/rough-gas-storage-undertakings-review-provisional-decision-15.11.17.pdf
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,341
    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.
    In a way that's the point I'm making. Probably I should have said he's sacked all his advisers except his wife.
    Bizarrely - and shamefully - announcing his divorce is one thing that would actually go down well with a lot of Tory members, judging from some of the comments you see from them
    Definitely a lot of misogyny around but it's also because she's perceived as the one behind his left-wing green policies, amongst a load of other alleged character defects.

    Johnson has managed to piss off the whole party. Not even Theresa May managed that.
    Johnson has been consistently in the Green wing of the Conservative party for a number of years - even before Cameron was leader, IIRC
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160

    HYUFD said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
    Fine Gael 21% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
    Greens 6 (-1)
    Social Democrats 5 (+2)
    Labour 4 (nc)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
    Aontú 2 (nc)
    others/independents 12 (-2)

    (Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

    When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
    It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.
    - “When do we get one in Norn?”

    The last one was just a couple of weeks ago:

    ‘Disaster for DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as Sinn Fein extends lead to eight points’
    - DUP chief the least popular leader in NI by a considerable margin

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/disaster-for-dup-leader-jeffrey-donaldson-as-sinn-fein-extends-lead-to-eight-points-41266170.html

    - “How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?”

    The Ulster Unionists hate everybody, including, and especially, themselves.

    - “It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.”

    So, the DUP are quintessentially Irish? Ho ho. That’s you off their ‘Jesus was a Protestant’ Christmas card list.
    76% of DUP voters and 98% of TUV voters wanted the DUP to collapse Stormont before the elections until the NIP protocol was scrapped.

    In that poll you link to the combined DUP and TUV vote is 29% ahead of SF on 25%. If this unites the hardline loyalist vote behind the DUP it could put the DUP in front again

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486638991688577025?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486305570902745097?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg
    You do write some utter guff (using questionable statistics to back your wild assertions) about pretty much everything
    I've edited your message for you ;)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,428
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    Agree with this. Obsession about political ethics is to a certain extent a luxury that a lot of people can't afford. The collapse in many voters' standard of living this year is going to be brutal. I think this is why Johnson is still in office, to be honest, Tories know that the job is a poisoned chalice.
  • 86% of the vote shows the electorate loves Boris Johnson.

    That's the genuine spin I've seen.

    Utterly chuffed to see Steve Laws humiliated.
  • Has anyone got a link to the Boris is a twat spoilt ballot?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    The storm for all of us is only just beginning. I fear inflation is possibly going to explode, feeding off itself - worldwide - heading into double digits

    Like nothing we’ve experienced since the 1970s?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,104
    MattW said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    Two big challenges for Sunak.

    One is that he might end up being Johnson with better control of his trousers. He's just as willing to be utterly dishonest;

    That Sunak article in the Sun is pretty extraordinary. He cites a "colder than usual winter" meaning we've "used up more of our gas stores". But the Tories shut down three quarters of the UK's gas storage in 2017, and so far this winter has been one of the mildest on record.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1489365733985427460?t=OcwK8ABybocAiBGpL87zag&s=19

    The other is that, whatever the government does, we're all about to have a year of being noticeably poorer. Governments don't usually survive that.

    Sunak's best medium-term bet was to replace Johnson in autumn '23, greenhouse some green shoots, cut a few taxes and win in spring '24.

    Sunak's problem is that he can't keep Johnson viable that long.
    Extra gas storage, while being good for security of supply, isn't going to stop price rises after a certain time.
    That Yar-Boo tweet is overreaching.

    It was a facility provided by Centrica not the government, and was at the end of it's life.

    To renew / renovate was costed at around £1 billion.

    What would you have done?

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a0c1010ed915d0ade60db73/rough-gas-storage-undertakings-review-provisional-decision-15.11.17.pdf
    I would have fracked.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,133
    Heathener said:

    As an aside, if we do actually get a VONC, I'll be looking to put a tiny sum on Starmer at ballooned odds for next PM.

    On the grounds that Johnson survives for two years? Interesting.
    Hmm. If there's a VONC. Johnson should have say a 40% chance of holding it off. He certainly won't resign if he does (95% unlikely). In which case, it's hard to imagine them trying a second time before the election (95% unlikely?). and hard to see the Tories winning if he does (30% chance?). But you'd probably need 10-1 odds on Starmer to make all that add up to a good bet.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    edited February 4

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

    If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

    But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
    He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.
    In a way that's the point I'm making. Probably I should have said he's sacked all his advisers except his wife.
    Bizarrely - and shamefully - announcing his divorce is one thing that would actually go down well with a lot of Tory members, judging from some of the comments you see from them
    Definitely a lot of misogyny around but it's also because she's perceived as the one behind his left-wing green policies, amongst a load of other alleged character defects.

    Johnson has managed to piss off the whole party. Not even Theresa May managed that.
    Johnson has been consistently in the Green wing of the Conservative party for a number of years - even before Cameron was leader, IIRC
    I don't know how anyone can apply the word consistent to Johnson on anything. He flits and flies at the merest whim.

    Some of his policies appear green one week and others hard right the next. He's an assortment of populist demagogy and downright lies.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,710
    I would imagine that The Fall of Boris will be irresistible to TV drama-makers. But who would play the leads?

    Presumably, Benedict Cumberbatch would revive his peerless Dom.

    Boris, and Carrie, now there's two roles...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,281
    TOPPING said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    Absolutely agree with this. Partygate will be meh for many. Meanwhile, I think the national expectation (whether justified or not) was for the good times to roll/roaring twenties post-pandemic.

    That is manifestly not going to be the case with grim reality dominating the newswires now.
    There’s a lot of binary thinking about Partygate. I don’t think it tops the agenda of many but neither is it “meh”. Within two or three years of Black Wednesday the economic impact on most has vanished, the economy was ticking along nicely, but the event trashed the Conservative reputation. It hung around like a bad smell. Ditto Partygate.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,281

    I would imagine that The Fall of Boris will be irresistible to TV drama-makers. But who would play the leads?

    Presumably, Benedict Cumberbatch would revive his peerless Dom.

    Boris, and Carrie, now there's two roles...

    Matt Lucas and Philomena Cunk lady.
  • I would imagine that The Fall of Boris will be irresistible to TV drama-makers. But who would play the leads?

    Presumably, Benedict Cumberbatch would revive his peerless Dom.

    Boris, and Carrie, now there's two roles...

    Jason Momoa to play Boris Johnson and Emilia Clarke to play Carrie.

    Nailed on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,981
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
    Fine Gael 21% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
    Greens 6 (-1)
    Social Democrats 5 (+2)
    Labour 4 (nc)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
    Aontú 2 (nc)
    others/independents 12 (-2)

    (Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

    When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
    It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.
    - “When do we get one in Norn?”

    The last one was just a couple of weeks ago:

    ‘Disaster for DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as Sinn Fein extends lead to eight points’
    - DUP chief the least popular leader in NI by a considerable margin

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/disaster-for-dup-leader-jeffrey-donaldson-as-sinn-fein-extends-lead-to-eight-points-41266170.html

    - “How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?”

    The Ulster Unionists hate everybody, including, and especially, themselves.

    - “It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.”

    So, the DUP are quintessentially Irish? Ho ho. That’s you off their ‘Jesus was a Protestant’ Christmas card list.
    76% of DUP voters and 98% of TUV voters wanted the DUP to collapse Stormont before the elections until the NIP protocol was scrapped.

    In that poll you link to the combined DUP and TUV vote is 29% ahead of SF on 25%. If this unites the hardline loyalist vote behind the DUP it could put the DUP in front again

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486638991688577025?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1486305570902745097?s=20&t=DsOg8Kr_lvXGHnlvbmhyKg
    You do write some utter guff (using questionable statistics to back your wild assertions) about the politics of Northern Ireland.
    Donaldson has just done what he needed to do to regain DUP voters lost to TUV as Johnson did what he needed to do to regain Tory voters lpst to the Brexit Party in 2019
    As you know, I regularly travel to Northern Ireland and the politics baffles me. I do talk to people from both sides of the divide and although they tell me their relationship with the ballot box is complicated they are not stupid.

    Most people in Northern Ireland seem to just want to get on with their lives. The vast majority think Poots and Donaldson are chancers. I hear stories about how they work that I wouldn't repeat on here. That is not to say moderate Unionists won't vote for them, but at the same time they understand their game.

    If Johnson and Lewis think dicking about with Northern Ireland without a get away plan is clever, they are even more stupid than I took them for.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    TOPPING said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    Partygate will be meh for many.
    No, it really won't.

    What almost all of us in this country went through was visceral, emotionally scarring, mentally damaging, physically draining. Not since the second world war has there been anything like it.

    And all the while our dear leader was pissing around behind our backs.

    We're very very angry.

    It's lethal poison.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,013
    .
    MattW said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    Two big challenges for Sunak.

    One is that he might end up being Johnson with better control of his trousers. He's just as willing to be utterly dishonest;

    That Sunak article in the Sun is pretty extraordinary. He cites a "colder than usual winter" meaning we've "used up more of our gas stores". But the Tories shut down three quarters of the UK's gas storage in 2017, and so far this winter has been one of the mildest on record.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1489365733985427460?t=OcwK8ABybocAiBGpL87zag&s=19

    The other is that, whatever the government does, we're all about to have a year of being noticeably poorer. Governments don't usually survive that.

    Sunak's best medium-term bet was to replace Johnson in autumn '23, greenhouse some green shoots, cut a few taxes and win in spring '24.

    Sunak's problem is that he can't keep Johnson viable that long.
    Extra gas storage, while being good for security of supply, isn't going to stop price rises after a certain time.
    That Yar-Boo tweet is overreaching.

    It was a facility provided by Centrica not the government, and was at the end of it's life.

    To renew / renovate was costed at around £1 billion.

    What would you have done?

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a0c1010ed915d0ade60db73/rough-gas-storage-undertakings-review-provisional-decision-15.11.17.pdf
    I would have legislated for and funded a national strategic energy reserve, as is normal practice in almost every country in the world.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,104
    TOPPING said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    Absolutely agree with this. Partygate will be meh for many. Meanwhile, I think the national expectation (whether justified or not) was for the good times to roll/roaring twenties post-pandemic.
    Who did people expect was going to pay the costs of lockdowns they were demanding?

  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 730
    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    Though Sunak did offer measures to help with rising energy prices too last night
    The Telegraph reports he let Kwarteng approve a load of new offshore drilling licenses too, Some sense at last but it will take time.

    A lot of this is the fault of that Theresa May, of course.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,159
    Is there a market for next Chancellor?

    If Boris goes then either Sunak becomes PM so will need a new chancellor.

    If Sunak doesn’t win then whoever does will be putting in their own choice.

    If Boris doesn’t get toppled then I can see him ditching Sunak for disloyalty to the great leader and try and lump all the bad financial state on Sunak as part of a reshuffle.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    DougSeal said:

    I would imagine that The Fall of Boris will be irresistible to TV drama-makers. But who would play the leads?

    Presumably, Benedict Cumberbatch would revive his peerless Dom.

    Boris, and Carrie, now there's two roles...

    Matt Lucas a
    Far too lovable to play Boris Johnson.

    There's no actor in the world who is a sufficient enough turd.

    The only person who could play Boris Johnson is Boris Johnson. It would be a fitting swansong.


  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    Leon said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    The storm for all of us is only just beginning. I fear inflation is possibly going to explode, feeding off itself - worldwide - heading into double digits

    Like nothing we’ve experienced since the 1970s?
    You do love a bit of alarmism eh? I am sure you remember the 70s better than me, being quite a bit older (according to your publicity material), but IIRC there were a lot more inflationary pressures then and no willingness to attempt to control it other than by pointless wage policies that failed miserably
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,174
    “The economy underwent abrupt and extreme inflation. ... Since it was so difficult (and dangerous) to procure goods through trade and to produce them, the prices of both goods produced locally and those imported from afar skyrocketed”

    From?

    A study of the economic aftermath of The Black Death


    https://www.brown.edu/Departments/Italian_Studies/dweb/plague/effects/social.php
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,159
    DougSeal said:

    I would imagine that The Fall of Boris will be irresistible to TV drama-makers. But who would play the leads?

    Presumably, Benedict Cumberbatch would revive his peerless Dom.

    Boris, and Carrie, now there's two roles...

    Matt Lucas and Philomena Cunk lady.
    I’m going Margot Robbie for Carrie (in Carrie’s dreams…)


  • I would imagine that The Fall of Boris will be irresistible to TV drama-makers. But who would play the leads?

    Presumably, Benedict Cumberbatch would revive his peerless Dom.

    Boris, and Carrie, now there's two roles...

    A perfect role for Benny Hill were he still with us
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,038

    A creditable effort by Heseltine, now 88 years old, on the challenges of levelling up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/03/levelling-up-michael-gove-regional-inequalities

    I think this was better by Aditya Chakrabortty:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/02/a-tale-of-two-towns-one-in-the-north-one-in-the-south-exposes-the-lie-of-levelling-up

    It effectively shows my doubts when 'levelling up' so often means 'become more like London'.
    The data research firm CACI provided me with profiles of central Ashington and Edmonton Green. In many ways, they look alike. Household income is, if anything, higher in central Ashington, while private tenants in my old neighbourhood spend almost triple their counterparts in the north-east on rent. Overall, the Londoners, my Londoners, make do with half the disposable income of those in Ashington. The one big difference is that residents of Ashington are older and 98% white, whereas Edmonton has families from Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Somalia and south Asia. Whether from the north or the south, economically these people are in the same boat – which makes it vital for the Tories to harp on about their cultural differences. Rich remainers, citizens of nowhere … you know the rest.

    There's another big difference...

    Tenure: Edmonton Green | Ashington

    Owned: 29.7% | 55.8%
    Owned: Owned outright: 10.7% | 27.9%
    Owned: Owned with a mortgage or loan: 19.0% | 27.9%

    Shared ownership (part owned and part rented): 2.3% | 0.1%

    Social rented: 43.1% | 14.5%
    Social rented: Rented from council (Local Authority): 23.3% | 2.6%
    Social rented: Other: 19.8% | 11.9%

    Private rented: 23.0% | 28.6%
    Private rented: Private landlord or letting agency: 22.0% | 26.7%
    Private rented: Other: 1.0% | 2.0%

    Living rent free: 1.9% | 1.0%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,512

    Odds: Sunak had been around 3.2, shortened a bit to 2.8 (as next PM). Starmer back out to 11.

    Fair. There are many, many Conservative MPs who can't see Boris leading them into the next election. The obvious successor is Rishi Sunak. But there is a feeling that his rise is too meteoric; they want to see a bit more of him to confirm that he has what it takes to be PM.
    There is humour in the idea he'll be the one to take Boris down, when he was brought in because Javid wasnt enough of a Yes man.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,765
    Heathener said:

    TOPPING said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    moonshine said:

    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
    Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

    I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.
    I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

    Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
    Another day breaks. Another day of Tory parliamentary majority wasted. And another day closer to the next election. There’s no refund on time, not that you would know it from the inaction of these gutless Tory MPs.
    Two years is a long time in politics but I think the Conservatives may have already cooked their goose for 2024. Yesterday felt an awful lot like Black Wednesday. If you look at the polls from 1992 through 1994 when Blair took over, the damage to the Cons had already been done.

    But at the moment I do have a begrudging respect for Rishi Sunak and I fear him. He's very capable and competent. I also liked his calm after the storm demeanour yesterday. Undoubtedly PM material but I think it's now or never.

    Liz Truss would be my golden ticket.
    No it didn't.

    The Labour leads are still nothing like 1994 and absolutely nothing like the over 20% leads they had once Blair took over.

    The Tories have also just won the Southern West by election with an increased voteshare on 2019. If the Tories were heading for a landslide defeat they would not have got 86% of the vote last night, no Labour and LD candidate or not
    The site is, in my view, overpricing Partygate as an issue, and underpricing cost of living the same way.

    If Johnson survives Partygate the call will be the storm is over, whereas in fact the storm for Johnson and all the tories will be just beginning.
    Partygate will be meh for many.
    No, it really won't.

    What almost all of us in this country went through was visceral, emotionally scarring, mentally damaging, physically draining. Not since the second world war has there been anything like it.

    And all the while our dear leader was pissing around behind our backs.

    We're very very angry.

    It's lethal poison.
    Yet Labour lost significant votes in all 3 Council By elections yesterday, and the tories gained significantly in Leicester despite everyone being very very angry. Apparently other local issues are much more important than what gets 90% of news coverage every day for the past 2 months
This discussion has been closed.