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Southend West: CON does 0.3% better than LAB at B&S in 2016 – politicalbetting.com
Southend West: CON does 0.3% better than LAB at B&S in 2016 – politicalbetting.com
I was wrong about the Southend West by-election which the Tories have retained with a vote share that was just 03% higher than LAB’s at Batley and Spen in 2016.
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Thus boosting her percentage, even with Boris on the downswing, which methinks was one reason for low turnout in constituency that was right on 2019 national average when Sir David, sadly in retrospect, ran his last hurrah.
Addendum - Mike's point is clearly more important, however, though mine is not entirely inconsistent.
Perhaps moral is that, in these all-too-similar cases, the tragedy of the circumstances and memory of MPs who died in service to their constituency and country, simply outweighs any considerations concerning the government, politics or politicos of the day?
The tide of opinion is unquestionably against the PM. But that's not to say everyone is. He still has his supporters among party ultra-loyalists, fans of Brexit and people who prefer his brand of conservatism to that of any of his obvious rivals. This view is less popular than it was last summer, but it hasn't completely gone away, and one would suspect if we can find it anywhere we will find it in Southend West.
Voters change their minds far less than the wild swings of visible opinion would have us believe.
I'm reminded of a conversation at work I had with a (pretty clued up) colleague after the 2017 GE, comparing the mood of euphoria after the 1997 GE with the mood of sullen resentment that the Conservatives were back. I pointed out that the Conservatives had won more votes in 2017 than Labour did in 1997, a fact which astonished him.
I don't want to sound like I'm cheerleading here. I'd like to see Boris gone as soon as possible. My point is simply that quite a lot of those who voted Conservative tonight will have done so because they view the current government led by the incumbent as the best fit for their views.
After yesterday’s news, hopefully this won’t be of any help to the drowning clown.
The only way for the Tories to win was for every centre left party to stand down and every other candidate to be a right-wing nutter! You can’t help but think that we’ve just missed out on another Eastbourne, which could have been the final nail.
In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.
The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.
Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'
‘specified minutes, notes, and correspondence relating to Government contracts awarded to Randox Laboratories Ltd’ 👀
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1052476/government-response-to-humble-address-motion-on-randox-contracts.pdf https://twitter.com/RussellScott1/status/1489376933569871877/photo/1
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489402280394768389?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489391144937132033?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA
People will read into it what they want - from proof of Johnson’s electoral appeal to his departure being priced in.
Something of an unusual political situation for her to navigate though, as she finds herself entering Parliament.
BORIS Johnson is braced for a fresh blow to his authority with five more Tory MPs set to submit no-confidence letters.
The quintet, said to include some junior ministers, will join a growing list of Conservatives calling for a vote on the PM's leadership.
Facing biggest drop in living standards since records began says Bank of England.
Wage-price spiral in motion: notoriously difficult to counter.
Scottish Conservative elder-statesman Malcolm Rifkind describes the prime minister as ‘toxic’.
Johnson loses his closest adviser of 14 years standing with an excruciating resignation letter.
Labour have now had a 10 point or more lead in no fewer than 9 voting intention polls during 2022.
Feels like things are coming to a head.
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1489248097561546752?s=21
Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.
However the main reason why Johnson should depart is now moral, systemic and governmental, rather than political. It’s about the way the current crisis shows how he sees his job, and about the way he does it. He sees himself as above the system. He should not. His approach cannot coexist for much longer with being a prime minister of a stable and healthy parliamentary democracy. There is too much at stake.
Johnson owes his prime ministership to running against Britain’s governing system. But at no time has he had an alternative system to put in place for changing Britain – beyond himself and his performance. He is now doubling down on that same approach, even though it will make all the problems worse. This is now an irreparably destructive prime ministership, not just to Johnson and his party, but to government more generally, to the public’s needs, to the country’s reputation and even to the survival of the state.
The more enticing thought is that the very trendy and passionately Remainer Northern Quarter are gravitating to the Lib Dems
The sack of Troy, perhaps? The burning of Carthage? Or how about the battle of Cannae?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/02/03/partys-prime-minister-time-resign/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/03/head-boy-rishi-sunaks-charm-offensive-perfect-foil-brash-party/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/02/01/skewered-theresa-boriss-farcical-flannel-has-left-conflicted/
Mr. Pigeon, Carthage survived.
It also became an Exarchate about half a millennium later, from which Heraclius rescued the Eastern Empire from the tyranny of Flavius Phocas.
Corinth, which was also attacked the same year as the Third Punic War concluded, may be a better example of actual destruction (though I'm not 100% sure on the fate).
Rome was a magnificent empire. Troy, Carthage were also great ancient cities.
Boris Johnson? He had one superb victory against a hopeless opponent. The last 2 years have been unedifying and awful. This was no empire, no Rome. This was Sodom and Gomorrah.
I'm not sure we should be so confident that this is the End of the Johnson Era. Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him, made room for a new support package. And last night's by-elections, from Southend W downwards weren't too bad for a Government apparently in free-fall; the Leicester one for example. I realise of course the antics of the MP haven't helped Labour. And in Southend, as someone else noted, UKIP came a bad third, behind a local oddball.
Some on the Twitter page marked on significant local issues in Manchester, too.
And just maybe the smears about Starmer will leave questions in voters minds. Smoke and fire comes to mind.
If Hannibal had lost at Cannae, the war in Italy would have ended and Rome would have been able to invade Africa years (a decade, I think) earlier than they did.
Yes, it didn't enable Carthaginian victory, due partly to the narrowminded opposition of Hanno, but it rocked the Romans.
I think too, that in expecting Johnson's resignation, we're forgetting his character; he doesn't jump, he has to be pushed.
Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
Fine Gael 21% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
Greens 6 (-1)
Social Democrats 5 (+2)
Labour 4 (nc)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
Aontú 2 (nc)
others/independents 12 (-2)
(Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)
Given that Bozo is supposedly made of Teflon, he seems to be able to stick around like an unflushable turd.
For the tory vote to go up 12.9% in Leicester with the current political turmoil is madness.
It's pathetic. Were it not for the mess this country is plunging into I'd almost hope they cling on to be given the kicking they deserve in 2024.
How on earth did the once great Conservative Party produce such pathetic, obsequious, low life like Greg Hands?
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-minister-claims-four-downing-street-resignations-are-prime-minister-taking-charge-minister-says-12532414
Where are you tories of courage? It may be too late to save your party but at least salvage some dignity: Get up, Stand up.
It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.
And in amongst all of this farago I totally disagree about Starmer. One of Johnson's biggest blunders throughout all of this has been to raise the profile of Sir Keir Starmer.
Starmer is now a household name, a big beast. A person who actually had a job. Prior to all of this he was so unknown and grey - a lesser spotted John Major.
Now he's the man to beat.
A massive, massive, blunder.
A shiver ran along the Scottish Labour backbenches, looking for a spine to run up.
But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.
Is suggestive of the electorate treating these two be-elections as events apart, and not something for day-to-day politics to intrude upon.
For all that you can claim this says nothing about Johnson, I bet he is still feeling very relieved this morning. The public do have a sense of proportion, and clearly partygate does not trump an assassination, and that does demonstrate that there is a limit to the public's anger.
However, I agree that it looks awful, but I stick with the thought that he doesn't jump; he has to be pushed. And unless he is, and pushed hard, he'll stay.
And I recommend, in this context, Andrew Murrison's piece in the Guardian.
Dacorum (so Hemel Hempstead) Tory trending Lib Dem and the labour vote switched to the opposition candidate.
Manchester - there is signs of people not wanting a Labour controlled council - some opposition is useful.
I don't see anything much here except a slight sign of anti-Tory voting and some a vote against the local Government. Outside of Hemel it tells us nothing really.
Paul Goodman
@PaulGoodmanCH
Number Ten Policy Unit member Elena Narozanski has quit.
Labour retained 80.2% of their GE vote in B&S, the Conservatives retained 46.4% of their GE vote in Southend West.
Nevertheless, without viable alternative candidates, very bad UKIP result, difficult to draw any narrative at all from the by-election.
Less than a year ago people were seriously discussing a leadership challenge to Starmer. Now it's unthinkable. He's as rock solid in leadership as I can remember from a Labour leader since, well, since Tony Blair.
Much of that is down to Boris the Unflushable.
The longer he sticks around the better it is for Starmer.
However, I’m still surprised by how poorly Starmer is doing north of the border. Latest popularity findings:
Net favourability ratings:
Nicola Sturgeon +13
Scottish Government +7
Anas Sarwar +1
Keir Starmer -10
Patrick Harvie -15
Lorna Slater -15
Alex Cole-Hamilton -15
Rishi Sunak -19
Douglas Ross -21
UK Government -50
Alex Salmond -62
Boris Johnson -62
(Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman; 14-18 January; 1,004)
Note how Sturgeon is more popular than her government, whereas Johnson is pulling down his government.
Note also how the Scottish leaders Sarwar and Ross and both more popular/less unpopular than their London bosses Starmer and Johnson. (For some reason Ed Davey was omitted, so no comparison possible with his underling Alex Cole-Hamilton.)
I think Keir Starmer should fear him.
Coming to a Viz near you.
Live updates on all of today's drama are free to read:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/04/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-aides-mp-resign-council-tax/
https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1489512644641968130?s=20&t=xPVNnYdg7je8bHbbrVrjIQ
Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17540391/cost-of-living-rishi-sunak/
It's probably been discussed a few times as an attack line but has always been ruled out.
Then Bozo wanted something on Monday that allowed him to stay in place while throwing his staff to the wolves and somehow thought of Jimmy Saville and SKS at the CPS. So he used it without thinking about the complete picture and the fact it doesn't actually match the narrative Bozo's wanted to create.
You can see that the attack line was prepared or approved of by others so it very much looks like Bozo used it as he couldn't think of anything else that allows him to remain in place while he fires everyone else to protect himself.
Maybe he is just testing the theory that a big enough personality (or stage act) means that your fans will love you no matter what you do.
Polling by @RedfieldWilton https://www.politico.eu/article/two-thirds-britons-think-boris-johnson-should-quit-broke-lockdown-laws/
Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.
That said, I'd be surprised if those who have gone on record being friendly will change their position.
It's those who have said nothing/stayed neutral who will decide this.
A VONC seems to be pretty likely. I suspect over the next few days sufficient letters will come in to tip the scales.
Then what?
I don't think even Johnson's now famous unflushability will be able to secure an outright thumping majority of MPs. He didn't even achieve that three years ago. Remember: even in his heyday in the rounds he still only won 114, 126, 143, 157, 160 out of 317. Hardly a thumping endorsement or a bandwagon. He's not popular in parliament.
So it'll go one of two ways.
Either he continues to cling on with, say 75 to 125 MPs, not voting for him. Fatally wounded and incapable of governing because, yep, he's incapable of governing. So things will continue to get worse and worse whilst the turd fails to flush.
Or he loses it
Will the Conservative Party really want to see their stock flush into the sewer along with Johnson? Or will they act with their alleged famous decisiveness and ruthlessness?
p.s. sorry for continuing the scatological metaphors but it's so very appropriate
The last one was just a couple of weeks ago:
‘Disaster for DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as Sinn Fein extends lead to eight points’
- DUP chief the least popular leader in NI by a considerable margin
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/disaster-for-dup-leader-jeffrey-donaldson-as-sinn-fein-extends-lead-to-eight-points-41266170.html
- “How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?”
The Ulster Unionists hate everybody, including, and especially, themselves.
- “It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.”
So, the DUP are quintessentially Irish? Ho ho. That’s you off their ‘Jesus was a Protestant’ Christmas card list.
It is also consistent with his blustering, bullshitting debate style.