Southend West: CON does 0.3% better than LAB at B&S in 2016 – politicalbetting.com

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Southend West: CON does 0.3% better than LAB at B&S in 2016 – politicalbetting.com

I was wrong about the Southend West by-election which the Tories have retained with a vote share that was just 03% higher than LAB’s at Batley and Spen in 2016.

Read the full story here

swing_voter

First, its hard to read much from this vote re BJ, suspect the 12k Tory voters came out in sympathy for the deceased rather than a ringing endorsement for No10.

SeaShantyIrish2

FPT - Watching and reading remarks of MP-elect Anna Firth, and perceiving how she come across tonight to me, cannot help thinking that some Labour and Liberal Democratic supporter - current not historic - must have given her more than a handful of votes?

Thus boosting her percentage, even with Boris on the downswing, which methinks was one reason for low turnout in constituency that was right on 2019 national average when Sir David, sadly in retrospect, ran his last hurrah.

Addendum - Mike's point is clearly more important, however, though mine is not entirely inconsistent.

Perhaps moral is that, in these all-too-similar cases, the tragedy of the circumstances and memory of MPs who died in service to their constituency and country, simply outweighs any considerations concerning the government, politics or politicos of the day?

Cookie

swing_voter said:

First, its hard to read much from this vote re BJ, suspect the 12k Tory voters came out in sympathy for the deceased rather than a ringing endorsement for No10.

Well, you never know.
The tide of opinion is unquestionably against the PM. But that's not to say everyone is. He still has his supporters among party ultra-loyalists, fans of Brexit and people who prefer his brand of conservatism to that of any of his obvious rivals. This view is less popular than it was last summer, but it hasn't completely gone away, and one would suspect if we can find it anywhere we will find it in Southend West.

Voters change their minds far less than the wild swings of visible opinion would have us believe.

I'm reminded of a conversation at work I had with a (pretty clued up) colleague after the 2017 GE, comparing the mood of euphoria after the 1997 GE with the mood of sullen resentment that the Conservatives were back. I pointed out that the Conservatives had won more votes in 2017 than Labour did in 1997, a fact which astonished him.

I don't want to sound like I'm cheerleading here. I'd like to see Boris gone as soon as possible. My point is simply that quite a lot of those who voted Conservative tonight will have done so because they view the current government led by the incumbent as the best fit for their views.

IanB2

Tells us next to nothing about the national political scene. Like Mike I was expecting more from the other candidates, but when you look at who they were and what they stood for, their poor showing is probably good news.

After yesterday’s news, hopefully this won’t be of any help to the drowning clown.

The only way for the Tories to win was for every centre left party to stand down and every other candidate to be a right-wing nutter! You can’t help but think that we’ve just missed out on another Eastbourne, which could have been the final nail.

Scott_xP

No mention of BoZo in the acceptance speech

IanB2

Over 1,000 rejected ballots! One photographed in the Mail isn’t very polite about Boris.

IanB2

Mail: The prime minister also had to convince minister Alex Chalk, the solicitor-general, not to quit as his power continues to ebb away.

In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.

The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.

Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'

Scott_xP

🚨 Government dropped this today ⤵️

‘specified minutes, notes, and correspondence relating to Government contracts awarded to Randox Laboratories Ltd’ 👀

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1052476/government-response-to-humble-address-motion-on-randox-contracts.pdf https://twitter.com/RussellScott1/status/1489376933569871877/photo/1

CarlottaVance

Three council by-elections - no evidence of the electorate wanting to give the Tories a kicking either - and in Leicester they almost took a seat from Labour:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489402280394768389?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489391144937132033?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

People will read into it what they want - from proof of Johnson’s electoral appeal to his departure being priced in.

Sandpit

Congratulations to Anna Firth, she sounds like she will make a good MP and continue the legacy of the late Mr Amess.

Something of an unusual political situation for her to navigate though, as she finds herself entering Parliament.

swing_voter

Jayda Fransen so called "independent".... is that the leader of a far right grouping?, if so, I am delighted to see that she only got 299 given the circumstances of the byelection

IanB2

The Sun:

BORIS Johnson is braced for a fresh blow to his authority with five more Tory MPs set to submit no-confidence letters.

The quintet, said to include some junior ministers, will join a growing list of Conservatives calling for a vote on the PM's leadership.

tlg86

Blimey, almost identical to B&S. Well done Pip Moss.

StuartDickson

Devolution in N Ireland blew its last chance, due to Johnson’s lie over Irish Sea border.

Facing biggest drop in living standards since records began says Bank of England.

Wage-price spiral in motion: notoriously difficult to counter.

Scottish Conservative elder-statesman Malcolm Rifkind describes the prime minister as ‘toxic’.

Johnson loses his closest adviser of 14 years standing with an excruciating resignation letter.

Labour have now had a 10 point or more lead in no fewer than 9 voting intention polls during 2022.

Feels like things are coming to a head.

tlg86

IanB2 said:

Tells us next to nothing about the national political scene. Like Mike I was expecting more from the other candidates, but when you look at who they were and what they stood for, their poor showing is probably good news.

After yesterday’s news, hopefully this won’t be of any help to the drowning clown.

The only way for the Tories to win was for every centre left party to stand down and every other candidate to be a right-wing nutter! You can’t help but think that we’ve just missed out on another Eastbourne, which could have been the final nail.

No, this is good. That the IRA and the Lib Dems helped get rid of Mrs T is something the yellow team should be ashamed of.

CarlottaVance

The Irish accepted a 25% cut in the Old Age Pension in the 1920s as a price worth paying for independence.

https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1489248097561546752?s=21

Pulpstar

Poor result for UKIP tbh

IanB2

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

Poor result for UKIP tbh

Behind both psychedelic movement and the 'Boris is a twat' spoilt ballots

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

Poor result for UKIP tbh

Behind both psychedelic movement and the 'Boris is a twat' spoilt ballots

It’s almost as though Brexit is done...

IanB2

Kettle: In writing about politics you can either try to explain what you think is happening or you can say what you think should happen. Right now, there is a complete convergence between the two. Boris Johnson’s premiership is on the slide, irreversibly so. The question is not whether Johnson will go. It is when and how – and what will come after

However the main reason why Johnson should depart is now moral, systemic and governmental, rather than political. It’s about the way the current crisis shows how he sees his job, and about the way he does it. He sees himself as above the system. He should not. His approach cannot coexist for much longer with being a prime minister of a stable and healthy parliamentary democracy. There is too much at stake.

Johnson owes his prime ministership to running against Britain’s governing system. But at no time has he had an alternative system to put in place for changing Britain – beyond himself and his performance. He is now doubling down on that same approach, even though it will make all the problems worse. This is now an irreparably destructive prime ministership, not just to Johnson and his party, but to government more generally, to the public’s needs, to the country’s reputation and even to the survival of the state.

pigeon

Pulpstar said:

Poor result for UKIP tbh

A total non-surprise, however. Ukip is just another hard right fringe party now, a desiccated husk. The notion that thousands of pissed-off Labour voters were going to swing behind them just to protest against Boris Johnson was always laughable.

ydoethur

pigeon said:

Pulpstar said:

Poor result for UKIP tbh

A total non-surprise, however. Ukip is just another hard right fringe party now, a desiccated husk. The notion that thousands of pissed-off Labour voters were going to swing behind them just to protest against Boris Johnson was always laughable.

The Insulate Britain of British politics - frantically protesting to demand changes that have already happened without their tiny minds noticing.

Heathener

IanB2 said:

The Sun:

BORIS Johnson is braced for a fresh blow to his authority with five more Tory MPs set to submit no-confidence letters.

The quintet, said to include some junior ministers, will join a growing list of Conservatives calling for a vote on the PM's leadership.

Although today is a sitting Friday in the HoC I've wondered if this Friday through Monday will see the trickle grow into a stronger stream. It's easier for rebellious MPs to submit letters when they're not within knee-knobbling range of the Whips' office.

Chris

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Did anyone paying any attention still think Boris Johnson was "cuddly" at all?

Roger

CarlottaVance said:

Three council by-elections - no evidence of the electorate wanting to give the Tories a kicking either - and in Leicester they almost took a seat from Labour:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489402280394768389?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489391144937132033?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

People will read into it what they want - from proof of Johnson’s electoral appeal to his departure being priced in.

The Manchester result seems to be the interesting one. The obvious thought is that Burnham pricing cars out of Greater Manchester is costing Labour and Burnham losing popularity would be significant.

The more enticing thought is that the very trendy and passionately Remainer Northern Quarter are gravitating to the Lib Dems

pigeon

IanB2 said:

Mail: The prime minister also had to convince minister Alex Chalk, the solicitor-general, not to quit as his power continues to ebb away.

In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.

The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.

Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'

I wonder if we can find a better analogy than the fall of Rome - which happened over several centuries, and at the end of which the city survived and rebounded, of course.

The sack of Troy, perhaps? The burning of Carthage? Or how about the battle of Cannae?

moonshine

pigeon said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: The prime minister also had to convince minister Alex Chalk, the solicitor-general, not to quit as his power continues to ebb away.

In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.

The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.

Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'

I wonder if we can find a better analogy than the fall of Rome - which happened over several centuries, and at the end of which the city survived and rebounded, of course.

The sack of Troy, perhaps? The burning of Carthage? Or how about the battle of Cannae?

The Rise and Fall of Kevin Keegan

swing_voter

moonshine said:

pigeon said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: The prime minister also had to convince minister Alex Chalk, the solicitor-general, not to quit as his power continues to ebb away.

In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.

The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.

Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'

I wonder if we can find a better analogy than the fall of Rome - which happened over several centuries, and at the end of which the city survived and rebounded, of course.

The sack of Troy, perhaps? The burning of Carthage? Or how about the battle of Cannae?

The Rise and Fall of Kevin Keegan

I was thinking more Peppa Pig's "The Playground"

swing_voter

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

Three council by-elections - no evidence of the electorate wanting to give the Tories a kicking either - and in Leicester they almost took a seat from Labour:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489402280394768389?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489391144937132033?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

People will read into it what they want - from proof of Johnson’s electoral appeal to his departure being priced in.

The Manchester result seems to be the interesting one. The obvious thought is that Burnham pricing cars out of Greater Manchester is costing Labour and Burnham losing popularity would be significant.

The more enticing thought is that the very trendy and passionately Remainer Northern Quarter are gravitating to the Lib Dems

they did unexpectedly win a central Manchester seat in 2005 IIRC and still harbour ambitions in the leafy suburbs

Heathener

Noticeable how much of the Telegraph is turning away from Johnson. Columnists like Judith Woods, Madeline Grant and even Allison Pearson all penning pieces saying it's over.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/02/03/partys-prime-minister-time-resign/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/03/head-boy-rishi-sunaks-charm-offensive-perfect-foil-brash-party/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/02/01/skewered-theresa-boriss-farcical-flannel-has-left-conflicted/

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Pigeon, Carthage survived.

It also became an Exarchate about half a millennium later, from which Heraclius rescued the Eastern Empire from the tyranny of Flavius Phocas.

Corinth, which was also attacked the same year as the Third Punic War concluded, may be a better example of actual destruction (though I'm not 100% sure on the fate).

ydoethur

pigeon said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: The prime minister also had to convince minister Alex Chalk, the solicitor-general, not to quit as his power continues to ebb away.

In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.

The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.

Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'

I wonder if we can find a better analogy than the fall of Rome - which happened over several centuries, and at the end of which the city survived and rebounded, of course.

The sack of Troy, perhaps? The burning of Carthage? Or how about the battle of Cannae?

The Battle of Nancy, where Charles the Rash’s incompetence caused the collapse and dismemberment of the Duchy of Burgundy?

Heathener

pigeon said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: The prime minister also had to convince minister Alex Chalk, the solicitor-general, not to quit as his power continues to ebb away.

In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.

The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.

Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'

I wonder if we can find a better analogy than the fall of Rome - which happened over several centuries, and at the end of which the city survived and rebounded, of course.

The sack of Troy, perhaps? The burning of Carthage? Or how about the battle of Cannae?

The other problem with the analogy is the implication that there's somewhere to fall from.

Rome was a magnificent empire. Troy, Carthage were also great ancient cities.

Boris Johnson? He had one superb victory against a hopeless opponent. The last 2 years have been unedifying and awful. This was no empire, no Rome. This was Sodom and Gomorrah.

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Pigeon, Carthage survived.

It also became an Exarchate about half a millennium later, from which Heraclius rescued the Eastern Empire from the tyranny of Flavius Phocas.

Corinth, which was also attacked the same year as the Third Punic War concluded, may be a better example of actual destruction (though I'm not 100% sure on the fate).

Cannae of course also being an interesting example of where an overwhelming victory made little difference to the outcome of the war.

Roger

pigeon said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: The prime minister also had to convince minister Alex Chalk, the solicitor-general, not to quit as his power continues to ebb away.

In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.

The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.

Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'

I wonder if we can find a better analogy than the fall of Rome - which happened over several centuries, and at the end of which the city survived and rebounded, of course.

The sack of Troy, perhaps? The burning of Carthage? Or how about the battle of Cannae?

The Rise and Fall of Colonel Blimp

OldKingCole

Good morning everyone.
I'm not sure we should be so confident that this is the End of the Johnson Era. Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him, made room for a new support package. And last night's by-elections, from Southend W downwards weren't too bad for a Government apparently in free-fall; the Leicester one for example. I realise of course the antics of the MP haven't helped Labour. And in Southend, as someone else noted, UKIP came a bad third, behind a local oddball.
Some on the Twitter page marked on significant local issues in Manchester, too.
And just maybe the smears about Starmer will leave questions in voters minds. Smoke and fire comes to mind.

Roger

swing_voter said:

moonshine said:

pigeon said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: The prime minister also had to convince minister Alex Chalk, the solicitor-general, not to quit as his power continues to ebb away.

In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.

The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.

Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'

I wonder if we can find a better analogy than the fall of Rome - which happened over several centuries, and at the end of which the city survived and rebounded, of course.

The sack of Troy, perhaps? The burning of Carthage? Or how about the battle of Cannae?

The Rise and Fall of Kevin Keegan

I was thinking more Peppa Pig's "The Playground"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTBYksnK7N0

felix

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone.
I'm not sure we should be so confident that this is the End of the Johnson Era. Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him, made room for a new support package. And last night's by-elections, from Southend W downwards weren't too bad for a Government apparently in free-fall; the Leicester one for example. I realise of course the antics of the MP haven't helped Labour. And in Southend, as someone else noted, UKIP came a bad third, behind a local oddball.
Some on the Twitter page marked on significant local issues in Manchester, too.
And just maybe the smears about Starmer will leave questions in voters minds. Smoke and fire comes to mind.

A more thoughful analysis than usual on here. However, as a Tory I think it would be good for the country and party if he resigned. there is clealry a strong residue of party support reflected in the polls and elections. Keeping boris can only deflate that imho.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Doethur, I'd dispute that.

If Hannibal had lost at Cannae, the war in Italy would have ended and Rome would have been able to invade Africa years (a decade, I think) earlier than they did.

Yes, it didn't enable Carthaginian victory, due partly to the narrowminded opposition of Hanno, but it rocked the Romans.

Morris_Dancer

Odds: Sunak had been around 3.2, shortened a bit to 2.8 (as next PM). Starmer back out to 11.

Roger

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone.
I'm not sure we should be so confident that this is the End of the Johnson Era. Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him, made room for a new support package. And last night's by-elections, from Southend W downwards weren't too bad for a Government apparently in free-fall; the Leicester one for example. I realise of course the antics of the MP haven't helped Labour. And in Southend, as someone else noted, UKIP came a bad third, behind a local oddball.
Some on the Twitter page marked on significant local issues in Manchester, too.
And just maybe the smears about Starmer will leave questions in voters minds. Smoke and fire comes to mind.

A more thoughful analysis than usual on here. However, as a Tory I think it would be good for the country and party if he resigned. there is clealry a strong residue of party support reflected in the polls and elections. Keeping boris can only deflate that imho.

If the Costa Del Sol branch of the Tory Party want him out he must be in trouble

El_Capitano

The Ancoats & Beswick result is very interesting. Manchester City Council is an egregious example of Labour machine politics and it would be much better for the city to have some proper opposition. For the LDs to win in a ward with such a mixed demographic augurs well for them.

OldKingCole

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone.
I'm not sure we should be so confident that this is the End of the Johnson Era. Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him, made room for a new support package. And last night's by-elections, from Southend W downwards weren't too bad for a Government apparently in free-fall; the Leicester one for example. I realise of course the antics of the MP haven't helped Labour. And in Southend, as someone else noted, UKIP came a bad third, behind a local oddball.
Some on the Twitter page marked on significant local issues in Manchester, too.
And just maybe the smears about Starmer will leave questions in voters minds. Smoke and fire comes to mind.

A more thoughful analysis than usual on here. However, as a Tory I think it would be good for the country and party if he resigned. there is clealry a strong residue of party support reflected in the polls and elections. Keeping boris can only deflate that imho.

Thank you. I think one could sum up the Conservative position as follows; it's either popular or it isn't. The usual word, of course, is Marmite.

I think too, that in expecting Johnson's resignation, we're forgetting his character; he doesn't jump, he has to be pushed.

MarqueeMark

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

Roger

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

I'm not surprised. She does come across as one of the few honest brokers in this whole sordid business

MarqueeMark

Morris_Dancer said:

Odds: Sunak had been around 3.2, shortened a bit to 2.8 (as next PM). Starmer back out to 11.

Fair. There are many, many Conservative MPs who can't see Boris leading them into the next election. The obvious successor is Rishi Sunak. But there is a feeling that his rise is too meteoric; they want to see a bit more of him to confirm that he has what it takes to be PM.

Quincel

swing_voter said:

Jayda Fransen so called "independent".... is that the leader of a far right grouping?, if so, I am delighted to see that she only got 299 given the circumstances of the byelection

Yes, she has formed the British Freedom Party with Nick Griffin but they don't seem to have properly registered with the Electoral Commission yet so she still stands as an independent.

moonshine

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

Do these MPs not have a functioning cortex of their own? It’s pathetic how long they’re taking.

StuartDickson

New Irish poll:

Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
Fine Gael 21% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
Greens 6 (-1)
Social Democrats 5 (+2)
Labour 4 (nc)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
Aontú 2 (nc)
others/independents 12 (-2)

(Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

eek

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

I will believe that when a VONC is called and not a second before then.

Given that Bozo is supposedly made of Teflon, he seems to be able to stick around like an unflushable turd.

NerysHughes

CarlottaVance said:

Three council by-elections - no evidence of the electorate wanting to give the Tories a kicking either - and in Leicester they almost took a seat from Labour:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489402280394768389?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489391144937132033?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

People will read into it what they want - from proof of Johnson’s electoral appeal to his departure being priced in.

Labour's vote went down significantly in all 3 by-elections, I doubt anyone expected that. These remain very strange political times. Imagine Blair having by-election results like this in 1995.
For the tory vote to go up 12.9% in Leicester with the current political turmoil is madness.

Heathener

So Greg Hands claims this morning that the resignations show "that the Prime Minister is taking charge."

It's pathetic. Were it not for the mess this country is plunging into I'd almost hope they cling on to be given the kicking they deserve in 2024.

How on earth did the once great Conservative Party produce such pathetic, obsequious, low life like Greg Hands?

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-minister-claims-four-downing-street-resignations-are-prime-minister-taking-charge-minister-says-12532414

Where are you tories of courage? It may be too late to save your party but at least salvage some dignity: Get up, Stand up.

OldKingCole

StuartDickson said:

New Irish poll:

Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
Fine Gael 21% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
Greens 6 (-1)
Social Democrats 5 (+2)
Labour 4 (nc)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
Aontú 2 (nc)
others/independents 12 (-2)

(Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.

OldKingCole

NerysHughes said:

CarlottaVance said:

Three council by-elections - no evidence of the electorate wanting to give the Tories a kicking either - and in Leicester they almost took a seat from Labour:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489402280394768389?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489391144937132033?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

People will read into it what they want - from proof of Johnson’s electoral appeal to his departure being priced in.

Labour's vote went down significantly in all 3 by-elections, I doubt anyone expected that. These remain very strange political times. Imagine Blair having by-election results like this in 1995.
For the tory vote to go up 12.9% in Leicester with the current political turmoil is madness.

The madness that was Keith Vaz and is Claudia Webbe. Even if she wins her appeal.

Heathener

OldKingCole said:

And just maybe the smears about Starmer will leave questions in voters minds. Smoke and fire comes to mind.

Normally I agree with your posts but I think you were very wide of the mark on this one.

And in amongst all of this farago I totally disagree about Starmer. One of Johnson's biggest blunders throughout all of this has been to raise the profile of Sir Keir Starmer.

Starmer is now a household name, a big beast. A person who actually had a job. Prior to all of this he was so unknown and grey - a lesser spotted John Major.

Now he's the man to beat.

A massive, massive, blunder.

StuartDickson

moonshine said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

Do these MPs not have a functioning cortex of their own? It’s pathetic how long they’re taking.

Reminds me of the famous quip after the Hamilton by-election:

A shiver ran along the Scottish Labour backbenches, looking for a spine to run up.

Chris

OldKingCole said:

... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.

LostPassword

Remarkably similar result to Batley & Spen, with even the turnout being almost the same 24% & 25.8%.

Is suggestive of the electorate treating these two be-elections as events apart, and not something for day-to-day politics to intrude upon.

For all that you can claim this says nothing about Johnson, I bet he is still feeling very relieved this morning. The public do have a sense of proportion, and clearly partygate does not trump an assassination, and that does demonstrate that there is a limit to the public's anger.

OldKingCole

Chris said:

OldKingCole said:

... Has he not done exactly what he said he'd do in the House? He's got rid of the people who were 'badly' advising him ...

If that was the strategy with the other three, the way in which it was done couldn't have backfired more disastrously. Surely the press should have been well and truly briefed about what was about to happen before the resignations went in. With Mirza announcing her resignation on a point of principle first, it gave the impression that Johnson's entire staff were walking out in protest at his behaviour. Probably a lot of people without too much interest in politics will still be left with that impression.

But I suppose if you sack all your advisers you're not likely to benefit from the best advice about how to go about it.

He hasn't sacked all his advisers; Carrie's still there.

However, I agree that it looks awful, but I stick with the thought that he doesn't jump; he has to be pushed. And unless he is, and pushed hard, he'll stay.

And I recommend, in this context, Andrew Murrison's piece in the Guardian.

eek

NerysHughes said:

CarlottaVance said:

Three council by-elections - no evidence of the electorate wanting to give the Tories a kicking either - and in Leicester they almost took a seat from Labour:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489402280394768389?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489391144937132033?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

People will read into it what they want - from proof of Johnson’s electoral appeal to his departure being priced in.

Labour's vote went down significantly in all 3 by-elections, I doubt anyone expected that. These remain very strange political times. Imagine Blair having by-election results like this in 1995.
For the tory vote to go up 12.9% in Leicester with the current political turmoil is madness.

Leicester - A labour run council with problems and yet they still won
Dacorum (so Hemel Hempstead) Tory trending Lib Dem and the labour vote switched to the opposition candidate.

Manchester - there is signs of people not wanting a Labour controlled council - some opposition is useful.

I don't see anything much here except a slight sign of anti-Tory voting and some a vote against the local Government. Outside of Hemel it tells us nothing really.

LostPassword

StuartDickson said:

New Irish poll:

Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
Fine Gael 21% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
Greens 6 (-1)
Social Democrats 5 (+2)
Labour 4 (nc)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
Aontú 2 (nc)
others/independents 12 (-2)

(Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

It will be interesting to see whether FF sink further when the rotisserie Taoiseach rotates and they have to serve in a government lead by Varadkar. If they do, there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth - and perhaps the end of Martin.

eek

Number 5 has quit


Paul Goodman
@PaulGoodmanCH
Number Ten Policy Unit member Elena Narozanski has quit.

Pro_Rata

For comparison, the number of spoils in Batley & Spen 2016 was 171 as against 1084 in Southend West.

Labour retained 80.2% of their GE vote in B&S, the Conservatives retained 46.4% of their GE vote in Southend West.

Nevertheless, without viable alternative candidates, very bad UKIP result, difficult to draw any narrative at all from the by-election.

algarkirk

Spoilt ballots coming second is the political equivalent of extras being the highest scorer. And conveys a similar message.

bondegezou

Pulpstar said:

Poor result for UKIP tbh

Indeed, and for the English Democrats and Heritage Party. A hugely unpopular PM, an open field, and they’re still below 3%!

DougSeal

Who is left to run Operation Big Dog? Dilyn? Appropriate if so.

Heathener

And here's another thing, following on from my last.

Less than a year ago people were seriously discussing a leadership challenge to Starmer. Now it's unthinkable. He's as rock solid in leadership as I can remember from a Labour leader since, well, since Tony Blair.

Much of that is down to Boris the Unflushable.

The longer he sticks around the better it is for Starmer.

algarkirk

pigeon said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: The prime minister also had to convince minister Alex Chalk, the solicitor-general, not to quit as his power continues to ebb away.

In another blow, influential West Midlands mayor Andy Street also criticised the Prime Minister, saying his behaviour was 'bad by any measure'.

The departure of four of Mr Johnson's most senior aides threatens to leave a vacuum at the heart of No 10.

Mr Clarke hinted at the grim mood among the PM's allies. Asked if the PM's situation could be likened to the last days of the Roman Empire, he told Channel 4 News: 'The last days of Rome I think were more fun.'

I wonder if we can find a better analogy than the fall of Rome - which happened over several centuries, and at the end of which the city survived and rebounded, of course.

The sack of Troy, perhaps? The burning of Carthage? Or how about the battle of Cannae?

Boris plans to be the only survivor of Thermopylae and then recover to be the next Pericles.

Heathener

p.s. Ed Davey is also having a good war

StuartDickson

Heathener said:

OldKingCole said:

And just maybe the smears about Starmer will leave questions in voters minds. Smoke and fire comes to mind.

Normally I agree with your posts but I think you were very wide of the mark on this one.

And in amongst all of this farago I totally disagree about Starmer. One of Johnson's biggest blunders throughout all of this has been to raise the profile of Sir Keir Starmer.

Starmer is now a household name, a big beast. A person who actually had a job. Prior to all of this he was so unknown and grey - a lesser spotted John Major.

Now he's the man to beat.

A massive, massive, blunder.

It was inevitable that Starmer’s status would rise as the prime minister’s collapses into lame duck territory.

However, I’m still surprised by how poorly Starmer is doing north of the border. Latest popularity findings:

Net favourability ratings:

Nicola Sturgeon +13
Scottish Government +7
Anas Sarwar +1
Keir Starmer -10
Patrick Harvie -15
Lorna Slater -15
Alex Cole-Hamilton -15
Rishi Sunak -19
Douglas Ross -21
UK Government -50
Alex Salmond -62
Boris Johnson -62

(Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman; 14-18 January; 1,004)

Note how Sturgeon is more popular than her government, whereas Johnson is pulling down his government.

Note also how the Scottish leaders Sarwar and Ross and both more popular/less unpopular than their London bosses Starmer and Johnson. (For some reason Ed Davey was omitted, so no comparison possible with his underling Alex Cole-Hamilton.)

DougSeal

Heathener said:

And here's another thing, following on from my last.

Less than a year ago people were seriously discussing a leadership challenge to Starmer. Now it's unthinkable. He's as rock solid in leadership as I can remember from a Labour leader since, well, since Tony Blair.

Much of that is down to Boris the Unflushable.

The longer he sticks around the better it is for Starmer.

I think that’s right. Starmer spent a lot of the pandemic sorting out the mess he inherited. Johnson is proving incapable of sorting out the mess he made. Therein lies the difference.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Kirk, that may be his aspiration but the gulf in talent makes it appear rather unlikely that Boris Johnson could be a modern day Pericles.

Heathener

And Rishi Sunak has risen in my estimation.

I think Keir Starmer should fear him.

Jonathan

Has Anna Firth sent in her letter yet?

StuartDickson

eek said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

I will believe that when a VONC is called and not a second before then.

Given that Bozo is supposedly made of Teflon, he seems to be able to stick around like an unflushable turd.

Boris the unflushable turd.

Coming to a Viz near you.

Theuniondivvie

OldKingCole said:

StuartDickson said:

New Irish poll:

Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
Fine Gael 21% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
Greens 6 (-1)
Social Democrats 5 (+2)
Labour 4 (nc)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
Aontú 2 (nc)
others/independents 12 (-2)

(Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.

How very dare you call the DUP Irish! British unto the end of time.

Roger

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed

OldKingCole

DougSeal said:

Heathener said:

And here's another thing, following on from my last.

Less than a year ago people were seriously discussing a leadership challenge to Starmer. Now it's unthinkable. He's as rock solid in leadership as I can remember from a Labour leader since, well, since Tony Blair.

Much of that is down to Boris the Unflushable.

The longer he sticks around the better it is for Starmer.

I think that’s right. Starmer spent a lot of the pandemic sorting out the mess he inherited. Johnson is not proving incapable of sorting out the mess he made. Therein lies the difference.

There's a double negative there, Mr S; do you really mean that Johnson is getting things sorted?

Scott_xP

Not another one... Boris Johnson starts the day with a fresh resignation after it emerged that Elena Narozanski, a member of the No 10 Policy Unit, has quit

Live updates on all of today's drama are free to read:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/04/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-aides-mp-resign-council-tax/

OldKingCole

Theuniondivvie said:

OldKingCole said:

StuartDickson said:

New Irish poll:

Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
Fine Gael 21% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
Greens 6 (-1)
Social Democrats 5 (+2)
Labour 4 (nc)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
Aontú 2 (nc)
others/independents 12 (-2)

(Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.

How very dare you call the DUP Irish! British unto the end of time.

Mea culpa; mea maxima culpa; I'd suggest I should say three Hail Mary's but that would be even less appropriate!

DougSeal

OldKingCole said:

DougSeal said:

Heathener said:

And here's another thing, following on from my last.

Less than a year ago people were seriously discussing a leadership challenge to Starmer. Now it's unthinkable. He's as rock solid in leadership as I can remember from a Labour leader since, well, since Tony Blair.

Much of that is down to Boris the Unflushable.

The longer he sticks around the better it is for Starmer.

I think that’s right. Starmer spent a lot of the pandemic sorting out the mess he inherited. Johnson is not proving incapable of sorting out the mess he made. Therein lies the difference.

There's a double negative there, Mr S; do you really mean that Johnson is getting things sorted?

Fixed just in time…thanks!

CarlottaVance

‘It’s not my job to opine on that’ says the Energy Minister opining on the restructuring of Downing Street

https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1489512644641968130?s=20&t=xPVNnYdg7je8bHbbrVrjIQ

rkrkrk

On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

StuartDickson

Morris_Dancer said:

Odds: Sunak had been around 3.2, shortened a bit to 2.8 (as next PM). Starmer back out to 11.

A “sound money” man? Been a few decades since the Conservative Party was led by one of them. And she was a woman.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17540391/cost-of-living-rishi-sunak/

eek

Roger said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed

I said yesterday what I think happened.

It's probably been discussed a few times as an attack line but has always been ruled out.

Then Bozo wanted something on Monday that allowed him to stay in place while throwing his staff to the wolves and somehow thought of Jimmy Saville and SKS at the CPS. So he used it without thinking about the complete picture and the fact it doesn't actually match the narrative Bozo's wanted to create.

You can see that the attack line was prepared or approved of by others so it very much looks like Bozo used it as he couldn't think of anything else that allows him to remain in place while he fires everyone else to protect himself.

kjh

NerysHughes said:

CarlottaVance said:

Three council by-elections - no evidence of the electorate wanting to give the Tories a kicking either - and in Leicester they almost took a seat from Labour:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489402280394768389?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489391144937132033?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1489386766444507140?s=20&t=jUAO97_wS0j8uFHaYG18nA

People will read into it what they want - from proof of Johnson’s electoral appeal to his departure being priced in.

Labour's vote went down significantly in all 3 by-elections, I doubt anyone expected that. These remain very strange political times. Imagine Blair having by-election results like this in 1995.
For the tory vote to go up 12.9% in Leicester with the current political turmoil is madness.

I think all you can deduce from those 3 is that the LDs did very well. Whether that was local campaigns or indicative or national trends only locals will know. It seems better than national poll improvement suggests.

Stuartinromford

Roger said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed

Part of the grim satisfaction of the Paterson-Parties-Saville cycle is that each step shows BoJo the man in a worse and worse light.

Maybe he is just testing the theory that a big enough personality (or stage act) means that your fans will love you no matter what you do.

eek

rkrkrk said:

On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.

pm215

IanB2 said:

Over 1,000 rejected ballots!

I was idly pondering the other day what I'd have done if I'd been a Southend West voter, and I think I too would have turned in a spoilt ballot. Probably with a message "give us a proper by-election, not this coronation of the tory candidate"...

El_Capitano

Scott_xP said:

Not another one... Boris Johnson starts the day with a fresh resignation after it emerged that Elena Narozanski, a member of the No 10 Policy Unit, has quit

On the positive side, Boris now has an excuse for five more leaving dos...

Scott_xP

EXC: 65% think Boris Johnson should quit if he's fined over partygate

Polling by @RedfieldWilton https://www.politico.eu/article/two-thirds-britons-think-boris-johnson-should-quit-broke-lockdown-laws/

Peter_the_Punter

eek said:

rkrkrk said:

On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.

I imagine we will see a slow but steady trickle of letters through until Monday when I would expect some sort of announcement.

Mps already know what their constituents think. It is now surely all about timing and positioning.

rkrkrk

eek said:

rkrkrk said:

On Alastair Meeks' count, hostile is up to 43... but friendly is up to 100.
Still seems momentum is with Boris Johnson.

I suspect there is a lag in AM's data that may mean the friendlies are currently higher than they actually are. Were I a Tory MP I would be avoiding people at the weekend as you know what the conversations are going to be like.

Good point - the data will lag.
That said, I'd be surprised if those who have gone on record being friendly will change their position.
It's those who have said nothing/stayed neutral who will decide this.

Heathener

Here's where I 'think' we're at.

A VONC seems to be pretty likely. I suspect over the next few days sufficient letters will come in to tip the scales.

Then what?

I don't think even Johnson's now famous unflushability will be able to secure an outright thumping majority of MPs. He didn't even achieve that three years ago. Remember: even in his heyday in the rounds he still only won 114, 126, 143, 157, 160 out of 317. Hardly a thumping endorsement or a bandwagon. He's not popular in parliament.

So it'll go one of two ways.

Either he continues to cling on with, say 75 to 125 MPs, not voting for him. Fatally wounded and incapable of governing because, yep, he's incapable of governing. So things will continue to get worse and worse whilst the turd fails to flush.

Or he loses it

Will the Conservative Party really want to see their stock flush into the sewer along with Johnson? Or will they act with their alleged famous decisiveness and ruthlessness?

p.s. sorry for continuing the scatological metaphors but it's so very appropriate

StuartDickson

OldKingCole said:

StuartDickson said:

New Irish poll:

Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
Fine Gael 21% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
Greens 6 (-1)
Social Democrats 5 (+2)
Labour 4 (nc)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
Aontú 2 (nc)
others/independents 12 (-2)

(Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.

- “When do we get one in Norn?”

The last one was just a couple of weeks ago:

‘Disaster for DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as Sinn Fein extends lead to eight points’
- DUP chief the least popular leader in NI by a considerable margin

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/disaster-for-dup-leader-jeffrey-donaldson-as-sinn-fein-extends-lead-to-eight-points-41266170.html

- “How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?”

The Ulster Unionists hate everybody, including, and especially, themselves.

- “It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.”

So, the DUP are quintessentially Irish? Ho ho. That’s you off their ‘Jesus was a Protestant’ Christmas card list.

Morris_Dancer

As an aside, if we do actually get a VONC, I'll be looking to put a tiny sum on Starmer at ballooned odds for next PM.

OldKingCole

StuartDickson said:

OldKingCole said:

StuartDickson said:

New Irish poll:

Sinn Féin 33% (+9)
Fine Gael 21% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 15% (-7)
Greens 6 (-1)
Social Democrats 5 (+2)
Labour 4 (nc)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 2 (-1)
Aontú 2 (nc)
others/independents 12 (-2)

(Red C/Business Post; 30 January 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)

When do we get one in Norn? How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?
It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.

- “When do we get one in Norn?”

The last one was just a couple of weeks ago:

‘Disaster for DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as Sinn Fein extends lead to eight points’
- DUP chief the least popular leader in NI by a considerable margin

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/disaster-for-dup-leader-jeffrey-donaldson-as-sinn-fein-extends-lead-to-eight-points-41266170.html

- “How popular is the idea of DUP picking a fight with everyone in sight?”

The Ulster Unionists hate everybody, including, and especially, themselves.

- “It used to be said that Irish didn't know what they wanted, and were willing to fight for it; looks very much as though that should be applied to the DUP.”

So, the DUP are quintessentially Irish? Ho ho. That’s you off their ‘Jesus was a Protestant’ Christmas card list.

I've answered the last point earlier (LOL).

Peter_the_Punter

eek said:

Roger said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Indy: Cummings is correct. She [Mirza], like him, has come to the conclusion that Johnson is now beyond help, not up to the job, and it’s in everyone’s interest that she says so publicly. So, in a more circumspect fashion, has Rishi Sunak.

Johnson had a lot to thank the woman he liked to call “Dr Mirza” for. She was his gaslighter-in-chief on race. Yet on the one occasion she asked him to say sorry for something, he would not listen to her, apparently to the point of watching her resign over it. For those who think him loyal to his friends it is an appalling reflection of his selfish, stubborn, nasty personality. He’s really not as cuddly as he makes out, and relies on his own judgement. He must be getting lonely, though.

Mirza has really cut through to the fence-sitting MPs, I was told last night.

Johnson couldn't have chosen a less wise ditch than JS for his last stand. There's a film coming out in March which I know a reasonable amount about having had a small involvement in the making of it. It's the first time ever that I've been asked to sign an NDA which tells you the sensitivity of the subject matter. I would have expected the PM to be better informed

I said yesterday what I think happened.

It's probably been discussed a few times as an attack line but has always been ruled out.

Then Bozo wanted something on Monday that allowed him to stay in place while throwing his staff to the wolves and somehow thought of Jimmy Saville and SKS at the CPS. So he used it without thinking about the complete picture and the fact it doesn't actually match the narrative Bozo's wanted to create.

You can see that the attack line was prepared or approved of by others so it very much looks like Bozo used it as he couldn't think of anything else that allows him to remain in place while he fires everyone else to protect himself.

Yes, if you watched the exchange in the House it's easy to infer that Johnson was panicking and it was just the first thing that came into his head at the time. That would be consistent with the notion that this line of attack had been discussed with his advisers at some stage but he had been warned against it. In his panic he ignored the warning.

It is also consistent with his blustering, bullshitting debate style.

Heathener

Morris_Dancer said:

As an aside, if we do actually get a VONC, I'll be looking to put a tiny sum on Starmer at ballooned odds for next PM.

On the grounds that Johnson survives for two years? Interesting.