politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome
Comments
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Whisper it quietly but is it just possible that Cameron is actually looking for an opportunity to quit, with honour of course?SeanT said:
Difficult to know what NO can do now. Momentum and emotion counts for more in this kind of vote. And all the momentum and emotion is with YESCasino_Royale said:In 2011 there was a huge late swing to the SNP and Salmond that didn't really show up in the polls, not until the very end at least.
Sadly, I see little ability in NO to fight to the finish and turn this around. So many seem to have given up. Murphy's not on the streets, Darling has lost his confidence, Galloway's been beaten up and Brown is invisible. Some of the NO TV spots and ads are awful.
I think YES has played very dirty - as well as promising nirvana - but they've won over the hearts of most Scots and silenced the rest. But they only need to win once.
The voters are not reverting to the status quo. Quite the opposite.
I still remember when I first sounded the alarm on here, about a year ago - that this thing could be lost and I didn't understand Labour complacency. And NPXMP airily said "oh don't worry about it, I spoke to some scottish Labour MPs and they assured me they would win easily, they haven't even started yet"
I thought it was a ridiculous statement then, and it seems I was right. Absurd laziness.
And it's Labour who will suffer the most. Irony of ironies.0 -
And we did keep the fleur-de-lis in the coat of arms for several hundred years after the last English holding in mainland France was conquered.SeanT said:
Actually I suspect we will keep the flag. We didn't change it when the Irish left, we won't change it now. We like it too much.Neil said:
Wont anyone think of the flag?!Casino_Royale said:If Scotland goes, our union flag becomes irrelevant.
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It should be remembered, YouGov were the most accurate pollster when it came to Scotland in the Euros.0
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I've just seen a tip I fancy from a poster on a website about politics and betting.
Cameron out 2014, 16/1
Thanks to that particular poster.0 -
Very sensible. And economical. After all, they kept the French bits on the English flag for what, 300 years after they lost it?SeanT said:
Actually I suspect we will keep the flag. We didn't change it when the Irish left, we won't change it now. We like it too much.Neil said:
Wont anyone think of the flag?!Casino_Royale said:If Scotland goes, our union flag becomes irrelevant.
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I was simplifying. I do know how money is created.Rexel56 said:
Er, no... With due respect I suggest having a look at the excellent Bank of England papers on how money is created..Cyclefree said:
the bank takes my money... It lends out that money...Charles said:@HurstLlama
You are playing it the smart way though: stay with one firm for the basics and then shop around for other products needed as appropriate. That's exactly the right way to play it. Too many people just stick with the same bank for everything.
The other problem is free current account banking. It's completely crazy: the infrastructure needed to support current accounts is hugely expensive - and the refusal of customers to pay for it means that banks need to find the money from other places, whether it is unreasonable flat fees for minor transgressions, ludicrous penalties or cross-selling of inappropriate products.
My Dad has spent many years impressing on me the view that banking should be like a utility: conservative, low return and boring. None of this fancy stuff - most customers don't need, want or understand the products.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf
There is nonetheless a spread and a well run bank ought to be able to pay for its infrastructure without gouging its depositors twice.
A well run bank. Now there's a thought. Have I just spotted a gap in the market?
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I don't think Cameron will resign. But one possible angle of attack on him (that arguably, in theory, could force a resignation on grounds of responsibility) is his refusal of a three-way referendum in favour of a straight IN/OUT question.
It's highly likely that, had that been on the table, the vast majority of Scots would have gone for DevoMax. That would have been a lasting settlement for a generation or more, with widespread popular goodwill.
Instead, Cameron raised the stakes - and gambled. And it now looks like he might lose. Ireland moved very quickly (politically) from 1912 to 1921 (encouraged by not just a handful of catastrophic UK government misjudgements) and this now starts to feel similar.
How different did Scotland look (politically) in 2003 to now?
Either way, I fear Scotland will be a very divided place for years to come. There will be a lot of acrimonious fallout from this whole episode.0 -
BBC reporting that Airports Commission will rule out Boris Island tomorrow. Will this allow BoJo to back down in time for Uxbridge?0
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Indeed, but that was an election with not much more than half the turnout that seems likely in indyref.TheScreamingEagles said:It should be remembered, YouGov were the most accurate pollster when it came to Scotland in the Euros.
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Why should Cameron (as opposed for instance to the Labour Leader of the Opposition - who has exactly the same policy) resign after an election in which he has played no part, is not involved in running and where he has no vote?Hugh said:Will Cameron stand down?
Will he?
I lean towards No.
What think others, Richard N for example?
Can you explain this please because I would be most interested in trying to discern your logic.0 -
It is the Spanish authorities that are preventing contact.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
The authorities will adopt the Sharon Shoesmith defence. All procedures were followed blah, blah.Cyclefree said:Re the King family: Whatever the legal position, it is an act of inhumanity to deprive a dying child of contact with his parents and his siblings. It is an act of inhumanity to lock up those parents and deprive them of contact with their son.
Unless there is evidence or very strong suspicion of cruelty or harm to the child by their presence could such an order, IMO, be justified. Has anyone said this?
I repeat what I said on earlier threads: if he dies, how are the authorities - both here and in Spain - going to feel/react? How do they imagine his parents and his family will feel? How do they think his parents are feeling now?
If the issue is what is the best health care for the little boy, that is something which could be sorted out, with a little goodwill. But such draconian powers should only be used in extremis not because a hospital does not agree with what the parents are doing.
The outcome is irrelevant, protecting the officials is all that matters.
The sensible thing would be for the King family to return to Britain with the child and go to court if they have a decent case to make that they have the best interests of the child in mind.
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I'm yet to be convinced Scotland is a massive bed of rampant socialism. I think its more a detestation of what they currently get (and how ignored they feel) together with the appeal to the heart, hope and the future - all wrapped up in a giant saltire.AndyJS said:You can understand some Scottish voters looking at Rotherham, and also at Carswell, according to their political point of view, and being not particularly impressed. More reasons to vote Yes.
Right, enough of this. Bed.0 -
DUKI might be appropriate.MikeK said:Oh no! If YES win in Scotland UKIP will have to change it's name.
How does SUKIP sound for, SMALLER UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Or UKIPEW for, UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY ENLAND & WALES?
Or DUKIP for, DISUNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Only if Wales slips lose can we call it the ENGLISH INDEPENDENCE PARTY.
But I'd suggest you check the urban dictionary first ;-)
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Packaged accounts are a nonsense for most people.Cyclefree said:
Sorry: I am much more cynical than you. If free banking is ended, the banks will not pay me a sensible interest rate on my money and charge me a fair amount for the services they offer.Charles said:
But the model you are describing is precisely the problem: it penalises the thrifty.Cyclefree said:
Call me old-fashioned, Charles, but the bank takes my money and pays me a tiny amount of interest. It lends out that money and charges the borrower a considerably larger interest rate. The difference between what it pays me and what it receives is the pot of money from which it pays the costs of providing the basic cheque book/hole in the wall and other services I get for my current account. It's not free because I am paying for it by effectively giving the bank a loan at a rate less than the market rate.Charles said:@HurstLlama
Y
My Dad has spent many years impressing on me the view that banking should be like a utility: conservative, low return and boring. None of this fancy stuff - most customers don't need, want or understand the products.
What banks want to do with all their talk of ending "free banking" is carry on paying me a derisory rate and then charge me on top for accessing my own money, which is losing value because I am not getting a proper return on it.
No thanks.
If banks were able to charge for current accounts, they could pay sensible interest rates on the loans that they get from their customers and they wouldn't need to go chasing after hot money.
The interest spread should be seen as a fee to cover the risk of the loan plus a fee for the service involved in the provision of liquidity.
In general, there is very little in the world that wouldn't be improved by clear, fair and transparent charging structures.
And the reason I say that is that they don't currently pay a decent interest rate on those accounts where they charge a monthly fee for providing the square root of f*** all. They have tried selling those accounts to me and I have always asked whether I would get a better interest rate and they say no and I ask why I would buy the account then and they spout some drivel about possibly getting some holiday insurance at a preferential rate which usually turns out to be more expensive than what I can find elsewhere.
No: what will happen is that they will continue to pay me diddly squat in interest and - in addition - charge me excessive fees for the privilege of accessing my own money. So a thrifty person will be screwed twice over.
I may as well keep my money under the mattress.0 -
We could stick the Welsh dragon on the flag, to appease them into remaining part of the union.0
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ENPCharles said:
DUKI might be appropriate.MikeK said:Oh no! If YES win in Scotland UKIP will have to change it's name.
How does SUKIP sound for, SMALLER UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Or UKIPEW for, UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY ENLAND & WALES?
Or DUKIP for, DISUNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Only if Wales slips lose can we call it the ENGLISH INDEPENDENCE PARTY.
But I'd suggest you check the urban dictionary first ;-)0 -
As I mentioned much earlier, this poll took place in the 3 or 4 days after last monday's debate, but is being reported 4 further days later. Survation showed the bounce up for NO after the first vote and a bounce back after the 2nd debate to what it has always been.
No-one seems to a) think this might be an outlier? b) even a poll taken after the debate win for Salmond Yes is only at 42% and around 25% of people have already voted......
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Because he presided over the break up of the nation he was Prime Minister of. Not a difficult argument to grasp.Flightpath said:
Why should Cameron (as opposed for instance to the Labour Leader of the Opposition - who has exactly the same policy) resign after an election in which he has played no part, is not involved in running and where he has no vote?Hugh said:Will Cameron stand down?
Will he?
I lean towards No.
What think others, Richard N for example?
Can you explain this please because I would be most interested in trying to discern your logic.0 -
Not involved in running the referendum (not election)?! The Tories are formally part of Better Together, they and their supporters seem to have provided most of the dosh, and he has been known to give speeches ...Flightpath said:
Why should Cameron (as opposed for instance to the Labour Leader of the Opposition - who has exactly the same policy) resign after an election in which he has played no part, is not involved in running and where he has no vote?Hugh said:Will Cameron stand down?
Will he?
I lean towards No.
What think others, Richard N for example?
Can you explain this please because I would be most interested in trying to discern your logic.
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With so few polls it is hard to judge which are an outlier. And on such a momentous decision, it is hard to stay objective!MarkPolls said:As I mentioned much earlier, this poll took place in the 3 or 4 days after last monday's debate, but is being reported 4 further days later. Survation showed the bounce up for NO after the first vote and a bounce back after the 2nd debate to what it has always been.
No-one seems to a) think this might be an outlier? b) even a poll taken after the debate win for Salmond Yes is only at 42% and around 25% of people have already voted......0 -
I wonder whether this YouGov poll will make people in the Westminster bubble realise what campaigners in Scotland have known for a long time, namely that independence is very possible. Will we see some proper planning happening now? Will somebody start thinking about the practical impossibility of holding a General Election during the independence negotiations, for instance?0
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Anyone with betting accounts should take the 7/2 Yes IMO
Will be 3/1 in the morning I reckon0 -
That's the St. Patrick's cross. There is still a decent sized chunk of Ireland in the UK, making it justifiable. It is also used occassionally now (unofficially) by itself to represent Northern Ireland.SeanT said:
Actually I suspect we will keep the flag. We didn't change it when the Irish left, we won't change it now. We like it too much.Neil said:
Wont anyone think of the flag?!Casino_Royale said:If Scotland goes, our union flag becomes irrelevant.
Scotland will secede in its entirety. That will make all the "blue" in the flag completely redundant (indeed, to continue to use the flag in its current form would almost be to invite ridicule) as it won't mean anything any more.
We'll still use it, for a while of course. But it'll be a bit of joke.
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Casino Royale - 'devomax' on the ballot would then have just moved the game on a year or two.
The issue is Scottish independence. Yes or No. Don't we want and need to find out?
I think you are really stretching a point to join the good old band waggon. Did Labour post an amendment for Devo Max?
BTW - do you remember the narrow Quebec vote? Has there been another one since?0 -
You'll find that the SNP have already planned for that. Postpone the UKGE by one year, and you have the recommended Indy Day just 6 weeks and one day before the new May 2016 date. Not a coincidence, I think,twid said:I wonder whether this YouGov poll will make people in the Westminster bubble realise what campaigners in Scotland have known for a long time, namely that independence is very possible. Will we see some proper planning happening now? Will somebody start thinking about the practical impossibility of holding a General Election during the independence negotiations, for instance?
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Something I agree with, but it's going to cause mayhem.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep 13m
Scots referendum poll showing photo finish likely - I hope they vote 2 stay UK, but you can't make folk live under a flag they don't support0 -
I do not think it likely that Cameron will resign; but 16/1 is too good to miss. I'm on for a few quid.Hugh said:I've just seen a tip I fancy from a poster on a website about politics and betting.
Cameron out 2014, 16/1
Thanks to that particular poster.0 -
I'm guessing it's been thoroughly gamed for behind the scenes. Not even David Cameron's dreadful Government could be that incompetent. Could it. Could it?!twid said:I wonder whether this YouGov poll will make people in the Westminster bubble realise what campaigners in Scotland have known for a long time, namely that independence is very possible. Will we see some proper planning happening now? Will somebody start thinking about the practical impossibility of holding a General Election during the independence negotiations, for instance?
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If BT do lose, then the blame would lie rather more with the Labour party, IMHO. They are, for their own purposes, reluctant to correct some of the wilder myths coming out of the Yes campaign about e.g. the NHS in England.Carnyx said:
Not involved in running the referendum (not election)?! The Tories are formally part of Better Together, they and their supporters seem to have provided most of the dosh, and he has been known to give speeches ...Flightpath said:
Why should Cameron (as opposed for instance to the Labour Leader of the Opposition - who has exactly the same policy) resign after an election in which he has played no part, is not involved in running and where he has no vote?Hugh said:Will Cameron stand down?
Will he?
I lean towards No.
What think others, Richard N for example?
Can you explain this please because I would be most interested in trying to discern your logic.
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The idea that people in England would have to wait 6 years for a general election in order to accommodate Scottish independence negotiations is madness. Nothing would do more to increase UKIP support.Carnyx said:
You'll find that the SNP have already planned for that. Postpone the UKGE by one year, and you have the recommended Indy Day just 6 weeks and one day before the new May 2016 date. Not a coincidence, I think,twid said:I wonder whether this YouGov poll will make people in the Westminster bubble realise what campaigners in Scotland have known for a long time, namely that independence is very possible. Will we see some proper planning happening now? Will somebody start thinking about the practical impossibility of holding a General Election during the independence negotiations, for instance?
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No no no no. Heavens no. Get with the programme. Its all Cameron's fault.AndyJS said:You can understand some Scottish voters looking at Rotherham, and also at Carswell, according to their political point of view, and being not particularly impressed. More reasons to vote Yes.
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No, it wouldn't. For the reasons I mentioned downthread. It would have settled the problem for a generation. Who would really care enough about foreign affairs, defence and currency to split for it? Full DevoMax would have given the majority of Scots all the real levers of tax, revenue and legislation they feel they don't currently have.Flightpath said:Casino Royale - 'devomax' on the ballot would then have just moved the game on a year or two.
The issue is Scottish independence. Yes or No. Don't we want and need to find out?
I think you are really stretching a point to join the good old band waggon. Did Labour post an amendment for Devo Max?
BTW - do you remember the narrow Quebec vote? Has there been another one since?
Quebec '95 was waver thin. Besides, it hasn't gone away as an issue. The province has been receiving plenty of concessions ever sense - and rightly so, given Canada doesn't want them to secede and that's the only alternative.
That might change, though, if Scotland goes and sets a precedent.
Either way, you're assuming our politicians are as competent as Canadian ones which is a bit of a stretch.
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Quite happy with this poll as it should ensure No supporters get off their backsides and vote. I wouldn't be surprised if this poll represents the high water mark for Yes.0
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Telling someone to "calm down" is probably the least effective way in the world of getting someone to calm down, but (given my wife has just told me a similar thing) it's probably time for me to sign off for the night.SeanT said:
Calm down. The Aussies still have the Union Jack in their flag and they've been independent for a century. We will keep the Union Jack as we all like it and it's seen as globally cool. We can say we are still honouring the Britishness of the islands blah de blahCasino_Royale said:
That's the St. Patrick's cross. There is still a decent sized chunk of Ireland in the UK, making it justifiable. It is also used occassionally now (unofficially) by itself to represent Northern Ireland.SeanT said:
Actually I suspect we will keep the flag. We didn't change it when the Irish left, we won't change it now. We like it too much.Neil said:
Wont anyone think of the flag?!Casino_Royale said:If Scotland goes, our union flag becomes irrelevant.
Scotland will secede in its entirety. That will make all the "blue" in the flag completely redundant (indeed, to continue to use the flag in its current form would almost be to invite ridicule) as it won't mean anything any more.
We'll still use it, for a while of course. But it'll be a bit of joke.
OTOH all yr other dire predix are completely true. We will be much diminished. We will give up our UNSC seat in time (tho this was happening anyway). Our military will be weakened and our image shattered as a place and source of stability
Plus side? Meh. Labour are screwed. England will be more right wing. UKIP Tory coalition after 2016, then EU exit?
Here's hoping it all turns out ok in the end.0 -
Well, it was Mr Twid who suggested that not me. And note that we had to wait an extra year for our Scottish election when Westminster changed the rules and hogged May 2010 without checking with the Scots. Ironic really - Labour could for all I know have won without that postponement and we wouldn't be here ...AndyJS said:
The idea that people in England would have to wait 6 years for a general election in order to accommodate Scottish independence negotiations is madness. Nothing would do more to increase UKIP support.Carnyx said:
You'll find that the SNP have already planned for that. Postpone the UKGE by one year, and you have the recommended Indy Day just 6 weeks and one day before the new May 2016 date. Not a coincidence, I think,twid said:I wonder whether this YouGov poll will make people in the Westminster bubble realise what campaigners in Scotland have known for a long time, namely that independence is very possible. Will we see some proper planning happening now? Will somebody start thinking about the practical impossibility of holding a General Election during the independence negotiations, for instance?
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Wouldn't be so sure. All bets are off after Yes, surely.SeanT said:Casino_Royale said:
That's the St. Patrick's cross. There is still a decent sized chunk of Ireland in the UK, making it justifiable. It is also used occassionally now (unofficially) by itself to represent Northern Ireland.SeanT said:
Actually I suspect we will keep the flag. We didn't change it when the Irish left, we won't change it now. We like it too much.Neil said:
Wont anyone think of the flag?!Casino_Royale said:If Scotland goes, our union flag becomes irrelevant.
Scotland will secede in its entirety. That will make all the "blue" in the flag completely redundant (indeed, to continue to use the flag in its current form would almost be to invite ridicule) as it won't mean anything any more.
We'll still use it, for a while of course. But it'll be a bit of joke.
Plus side? Meh. Labour are screwed. England will be more right wing. UKIP Tory coalition after 2016, then EU exit?
Could easily, very easily, work the other way and lead to Labour dominance in the UK (as the Right splits further and PM Miliband makes sweeping reforms to the electoral system, for instance).
Or not much changes.0 -
I've gone the safer route and taken 8/1 he won't be leader going into the next electionfoxinsoxuk said:
I do not think it likely that Cameron will resign; but 16/1 is too good to miss. I'm on for a few quid.Hugh said:I've just seen a tip I fancy from a poster on a website about politics and betting.
Cameron out 2014, 16/1
Thanks to that particular poster.0 -
I think there is still a gap in the market. Not many Handelsbanken branches where I am and the other outfit is rightly selective.Charles said:
I used to bank with an old-fashioned and rather good bank, which then got bought up by a bigger bank which promptly got rid of all the bits that made it worthwhile. They think I'm worth enough to give me a sort of private relationship person but do nothing at all of any real value.
And I, because of my job, am rightly suspicious of any banker approaching me with stuff they want to sell me.
Funnily enough when I tell them what my job involves, there is a lot of nervous laughter and a "well I won't bother you with any of this but you must have some fantastic stories to tell" and I say that yes I do. I must be a nightmare client - worth something but far too knowledgeable about bank cock-ups and worse for any bank staff's peace of mind.
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" Why should Cameron (as opposed for instance to the Labour Leader of the Opposition - who has exactly the same policy) resign after an election in which he has played no part, is not involved in running and where he has no vote? "
Didn't Lord Carrington resign when Britain lost South Georgia-an island only occupied by penguins- that no one could even find on a map?
This is of a quite different scale but Ministers aren't as honorable as Lord C so who knows?0 -
I'm not sure the Union Flag is officially the flag of anything, other than a Queen's ship, when flown at the jackstaff. It is simply used as the national flag. So I am not quite sure what the process of changing it is.Casino_Royale said:
That's the St. Patrick's cross. There is still a decent sized chunk of Ireland in the UK, making it justifiable. It is also used occassionally now (unofficially) by itself to represent Northern Ireland.SeanT said:
Actually I suspect we will keep the flag. We didn't change it when the Irish left, we won't change it now. We like it too much.Neil said:
Wont anyone think of the flag?!Casino_Royale said:If Scotland goes, our union flag becomes irrelevant.
Scotland will secede in its entirety. That will make all the "blue" in the flag completely redundant (indeed, to continue to use the flag in its current form would almost be to invite ridicule) as it won't mean anything any more.
We'll still use it, for a while of course. But it'll be a bit of joke.
We ought to really repeal the annexation of Wales, and make it an equal partner in EWNI, we could then redo the UF with the Flag of St David in. Black in the UF would look cool, I think.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Saint_David#mediaviewer/File:Flag_of_Saint_David.svg
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Just a warning to all PBers I have bet with on the 2015 GE
Unless stated otherwise, all bets will stand regardless of Scottish Indy Ref result0 -
Unfortunately it will 60-40 +/- 3% for no. Sean having a massive over reaction as is traditional.0
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There are persistent rumours (I do not have the oomph to judge their reliability) that the Civil Service in Whitehall have been completely forbidden to do contingency planning. Presumably because it was feared it would leak out and undermine the case for the Union. Sounds daft to me (all of it) but there we are. (Look at the reaction in the DT to the Scottish Government sensibly planning for No as well as yes.)Hugh said:
I'm guessing it's been thoroughly gamed for behind the scenes. Not even David Cameron's dreadful Government could be that incompetent. Could it. Could it?!twid said:I wonder whether this YouGov poll will make people in the Westminster bubble realise what campaigners in Scotland have known for a long time, namely that independence is very possible. Will we see some proper planning happening now? Will somebody start thinking about the practical impossibility of holding a General Election during the independence negotiations, for instance?
We have seen one instance of planning, to be fair: the MoD proposal to annexe Faslane and Coulport (the nukes store) to EWNI before Indy Day. Though No 10 shot that down within hours.
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Of course Putin may make the Scottish referendum a sideshow.MikeK said:Something I agree with, but it's going to cause mayhem.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep 13m
Scots referendum poll showing photo finish likely - I hope they vote 2 stay UK, but you can't make folk live under a flag they don't support
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11069070/I-can-take-Kiev-in-two-weeks-Vladimir-Putin-warns-European-leaders.html0 -
Siraj Datoo @sirajdatoo · 38m
Ouch. CCHQ has been in Clacton since Thursday and couldn't stop the exodus of local members to Ukip http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4193857.ece … via @thetimes (£)
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OT. Southampton hospital coming out of the Newsnight discussion very badly this evening. Claims that they knew the battery was not going to run down as was claimed, also that they knew the parents were not happy with the treatment and wanted to try the alternative. A complete breakdown in the hospital/parent relationship and claims of spite and misinformation given by the hospital after the by was taken.
The expert on medical ethics saying it is ridiculous that the parents are being charged with Child Cruelty and the only cruelty is the boy being kept away from his parents in Spain.
Not good at all.0 -
Why all the doom and gloom? The UK is on the decline anyway, as SeanT frequently points out. Scotland voting Yes might just be the catalyst that we need to get us out of the doldrums. Embrace it, it's gonna be a hell of a ride.0
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FWIW I think there's a good chance that a yes vote would be followed by the collapse of the government, repeal of the fixed term parliament act and a UK wide general election this Autumn. Likely result would be a Labour majority and a majority of Scots voting for unionist parties. Now that really would be interesting....AndyJS said:
The idea that people in England would have to wait 6 years for a general election in order to accommodate Scottish independence negotiations is madness. Nothing would do more to increase UKIP support.Carnyx said:
You'll find that the SNP have already planned for that. Postpone the UKGE by one year, and you have the recommended Indy Day just 6 weeks and one day before the new May 2016 date. Not a coincidence, I think,twid said:I wonder whether this YouGov poll will make people in the Westminster bubble realise what campaigners in Scotland have known for a long time, namely that independence is very possible. Will we see some proper planning happening now? Will somebody start thinking about the practical impossibility of holding a General Election during the independence negotiations, for instance?
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Eh? The Scottish Parliament was on a 4 year schedule ... 1999, 2003, 2007 - there was no election due in 2010.Carnyx said:And note that we had to wait an extra year for our Scottish election when Westminster changed the rules and hogged May 2010 without checking with the Scots. Ironic really - Labour could for all I know have won without that postponement and we wouldn't be here ...
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It looks like that, from a certain perspective, on the face of it.SeanT said:
Well, labour lose 40 MPs. Plus all of their heartland. That's one thing we know for sure, after YESHugh said:
Wouldn't be so sure. All bets are off after Yes, surely.SeanT said:Casino_Royale said:
That's the St. Patrick's cross. There is still a decent sized chunk of Ireland in the UK, making it justifiable. It is also used occassionally now (unofficially) by itself to represent Northern Ireland.SeanT said:
Actually I suspect we will keep the flag. We didn't change it when the Irish left, we won't change it now. We like it too much.Neil said:
Wont anyone think of the flag?!Casino_Royale said:If Scotland goes, our union flag becomes irrelevant.
Scotland will secede in its entirety. That will make all the "blue" in the flag completely redundant (indeed, to continue to use the flag in its current form would almost be to invite ridicule) as it won't mean anything any more.
We'll still use it, for a while of course. But it'll be a bit of joke.
Plus side? Meh. Labour are screwed. England will be more right wing. UKIP Tory coalition after 2016, then EU exit?
Could easily, very easily, work the other way and lead to Labour dominance in the UK (as the Right splits further and PM Miliband makes sweeping reforms to the electoral system, for instance).
Or not much changes.
And I suggest any post-YES electoral reform will look ghastly to Labour, as it naturally ensures a Tory-UKIP coalition and government.
Look at today's polls. Tories plus UKIP = 47%. And that's INCLUDING Scotland
But the break up of the nation is a Black Swan of ridiculous proportions.0 -
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 7m
Bullying police, an authoritarian NHS, a supine PCC, the European Arrest Warrant. The Ashya case tells us everything about UK officialdom0 -
No he didn't. He resigned for his department's failure to foresee the Argentine invasion of the Falklands which led to the subsequent war.Roger said:" Why should Cameron (as opposed for instance to the Labour Leader of the Opposition - who has exactly the same policy) resign after an election in which he has played no part, is not involved in running and where he has no vote? "
Didn't Lord Carrington resign when Britain lost South Georgia-an island only occupied by penguins- that no one could even find on a map?
This is of a quite different scale but Ministers aren't as honorable as Lord C so who knows?
Playing down the seriousness of the circumstances of his resignation is petty and crass.0 -
Sorry, I think there are too many people with no experience of Scotland or it's politics trying to comment on, or in believing MalcolmG/S. Dickson comments on this site.Carnyx said:
Not so sure. Yougov is at the No-friendly end of the polling spectrum, as the original posting notes. And google Kellner Correction.murali_s said:Relax - NO still 6 points ahead and this poll is probably at the high end of the range for YES.
The UK will survive...
This is not Engerlund! We do not believe the (or read) Torygraph, the Wail or the Current Bun or read the comments on (Heresy!) this site. We actually think, deliberate and then action our beliefs. If the majority is for independence, then youse in Engerlund better come up with some better ideas.
However, I do not think (hope and pray) Salmond and his Nationalists, centralised and armed police, centralised justice system, failed NHS, incompetent financial system beliefs, expensive and so called green and recyclable windmill power while still relying on Black Oil to keep us in the style we have been accustomed to, numpty armed services and his CyberNats (= Geheime Staatspolizei) will win.
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@SeanT
I don't really have a dog in this fight. I haven't bet on it. On balance I'd prefer the Scots to stay in the Union, but only if the majority want to.
I agree with you about DC. Just as a matter of pride, I think he'd resign immediately. He'd be the lamest of lame duck leaders of he did not.
I'm with Hugh on the electoral consequences though. All bets would be off while we absorbed the implications. These could be seriously adverse for the Tories, or not. Very hard to say.
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Further to this, to any posters who still think I'm "tim" and/or might have bets with me because I'm "tim"Hugh said:I've just seen a tip I fancy from a poster on a website about politics and betting.
Cameron out 2014, 16/1
Thanks to that particular poster.
Think to yourself whether tim would be looking for occasional punts on this market, or whether he would have seen the value, or a lot better, long ago.
;-)0 -
Sadly, that is the way of the world.Cyclefree said:
I used to bank with an old-fashioned and rather good bank, which then got bought up by a bigger bank which promptly got rid of all the bits that made it worthwhile. They think I'm worth enough to give me a sort of private relationship person but do nothing at all of any real value.
I liked Martin's bank while it was still around, but Barclays ruined that one. If you look carefully, though, you can still see their grasshopper on some of the branches in the north and midlands.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martins_Bank0 -
Neil said:
Eh? The Scottish Parliament was on a 4 year schedule ... 1999, 2003, 2007 - there was no election due in 2010.Carnyx said:And note that we had to wait an extra year for our Scottish election when Westminster changed the rules and hogged May 2010 without checking with the Scots. Ironic really - Labour could for all I know have won without that postponement and we wouldn't be here ...
Sorry, must have had a brainstorm. Something vaguely of the sort happened but I can't pin it down. Please ignore ...Neil said:
Eh? The Scottish Parliament was on a 4 year schedule ... 1999, 2003, 2007 - there was no election due in 2010.Carnyx said:And note that we had to wait an extra year for our Scottish election when Westminster changed the rules and hogged May 2010 without checking with the Scots. Ironic really - Labour could for all I know have won without that postponement and we wouldn't be here ...
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Why would there be an early election unless the Conservatives wanted one? I would expect that a YES vote would lead to immediate legislation to disenfranshise Scottish MPs on all matters not directly concerned with Scotland.anothernick said:
FWIW I think there's a good chance that a yes vote would be followed by the collapse of the government, repeal of the fixed term parliament act and a UK wide general election this Autumn. Likely result would be a Labour majority and a majority of Scots voting for unionist parties. Now that really would be interesting....AndyJS said:
The idea that people in England would have to wait 6 years for a general election in order to accommodate Scottish independence negotiations is madness. Nothing would do more to increase UKIP support.Carnyx said:
You'll find that the SNP have already planned for that. Postpone the UKGE by one year, and you have the recommended Indy Day just 6 weeks and one day before the new May 2016 date. Not a coincidence, I think,twid said:I wonder whether this YouGov poll will make people in the Westminster bubble realise what campaigners in Scotland have known for a long time, namely that independence is very possible. Will we see some proper planning happening now? Will somebody start thinking about the practical impossibility of holding a General Election during the independence negotiations, for instance?
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50-51% No would be a horrible result. It would mean English people living in Scotland were responsible for stopping Scottish independence.0
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I cant believe people are sticking up for the stateRichard_Tyndall said:OT. Southampton hospital coming out of the Newsnight discussion very badly this evening. Claims that they knew the battery was not going to run down as was claimed, also that they knew the parents were not happy with the treatment and wanted to try the alternative. A complete breakdown in the hospital/parent relationship and claims of spite and misinformation given by the hospital after the by was taken.
The expert on medical ethics saying it is ridiculous that the parents are being charged with Child Cruelty and the only cruelty is the boy being kept away from his parents in Spain.
Not good at all.
Watching the parents being pushed into a police car almost in tears "We just want the best for Ashya"... heartbreaking0 -
Why on earth would the Scots vote for unionist parties when they've just voted for indy and when they want maximum pro-Scottish negotiating power? Just puzzled, if there is something I have missed please do say.anothernick said:
FWIW I think there's a good chance that a yes vote would be followed by the collapse of the government, repeal of the fixed term parliament act and a UK wide general election this Autumn. Likely result would be a Labour majority and a majority of Scots voting for unionist parties. Now that really would be interesting....AndyJS said:
The idea that people in England would have to wait 6 years for a general election in order to accommodate Scottish independence negotiations is madness. Nothing would do more to increase UKIP support.Carnyx said:
You'll find that the SNP have already planned for that. Postpone the UKGE by one year, and you have the recommended Indy Day just 6 weeks and one day before the new May 2016 date. Not a coincidence, I think,twid said:I wonder whether this YouGov poll will make people in the Westminster bubble realise what campaigners in Scotland have known for a long time, namely that independence is very possible. Will we see some proper planning happening now? Will somebody start thinking about the practical impossibility of holding a General Election during the independence negotiations, for instance?
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What we nearly always see as elections get closer is that there is a clustering of the polling companies. However far they have started apart you can usually throw a blanket over them by the end. This poll brings Yougov in line with Survation and closer to ICM which I always a smart place to be.
The next 2 and a bit weeks are going to be extremely tense. Compared to this I am frankly indifferent as to who might win in 2015. I may not even have a vote.0 -
Don't confuse the poor dear with facts, there's a good ladNeil said:
Eh? The Scottish Parliament was on a 4 year schedule ... 1999, 2003, 2007 - there was no election due in 2010.Carnyx said:And note that we had to wait an extra year for our Scottish election when Westminster changed the rules and hogged May 2010 without checking with the Scots. Ironic really - Labour could for all I know have won without that postponement and we wouldn't be here ...
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No, it would mean old people were responsible for stopping young people from living in an independent Scotland.AndyJS said:50-51% No would be a horrible result. It would mean English people living in Scotland were responsible for stopping Scottish independence.
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Charging to read PB, maybe? Perhaps we could offer discounts for those who only read posts from malcolmg and fluffythoughts?Charles said:
In general, there is very little in the world that wouldn't be improved by clear, fair and transparent charging structures.
I might be too phlegmatic on the polls, but SeanT is too excitable - he's declared looming disaster, certain triumph and now disaster again. It's clearly a good poll for Yes, but we already knew there was a debate bounce. If it repeats next week or accelerates will be the time to get worried.
As for the other ones - Lab lead up to 7 or down to 1 - still think Nothing. Is. Happening. Which is disappointing for UKIP - with a big defection, a big jump in immigration and all the discussion of Rotherham, yet no real movement at all, they must wonder what they need to do.
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NOA Not necessarily, some of the polls I have seen have shown the youngest and oldest voters are the most No0
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Seems yougov and survation have now moved into line, we will await further polling data. Reflects the Salmond poll bounce, though I do not see what further events are going to shift the polls now0
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They are on a solid 17%, up from 3% last GE.NickPalmer said:
Charging to read PB, maybe? Perhaps we could offer discounts for those who only read posts from malcolmg and fluffythoughts?Charles said:
In general, there is very little in the world that wouldn't be improved by clear, fair and transparent charging structures.
I might be too phlegmatic on the polls, but SeanT is too excitable - he's declared looming disaster, certain triumph and now disaster again. It's clearly a good poll for Yes, but we already knew there was a debate bounce. If it repeats next week or accelerates will be the time to get worried.
As for the other ones - Lab lead up to 7 or down to 1 - still think Nothing. Is. Happening. Which is disappointing for UKIP - with a big defection, a big jump in immigration and all the discussion of Rotherham, yet no real movement at all, they must wonder what they need to do.
Do you think they are unhappy with that?0 -
Compare the number of parents put in custody for doing the best for their dying child this year vs the amount of parents charged for allowing FGM in the last twenty
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Remember that postal votes are being cast now.
If No leads by 6% now when postal votes are being cast then Yes will need to lead by (I suspect) between 1% and 2% on election day.0 -
I enjoy reading PB. Clearly Mike gets pleasure out of writing it, and some useful pocket money from the various media appearances that result, but equally it wouldn't be unreasonable for him to charge (although the challenge is how you can do that without driving away traffic)NickPalmer said:
Charging to read PB, maybe? Perhaps we could offer discounts for those who only read posts from malcolmg and fluffythoughts?Charles said:
In general, there is very little in the world that wouldn't be improved by clear, fair and transparent charging structures.
I might be too phlegmatic on the polls, but SeanT is too excitable - he's declared looming disaster, certain triumph and now disaster again. It's clearly a good poll for Yes, but we already knew there was a debate bounce. If it repeats next week or accelerates will be the time to get worried.
As for the other ones - Lab lead up to 7 or down to 1 - still think Nothing. Is. Happening. Which is disappointing for UKIP - with a big defection, a big jump in immigration and all the discussion of Rotherham, yet no real movement at all, they must wonder what they need to do.0 -
SeanT Labour still leads in England and Wales even without Scotland, under FPTP Ed Miliband can still be PM in rUK with UKIP splitting the Tory vote0
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What's your take on the consequences of a Yes for the political dynamics, particularly for Labour obviously, in the UK?NickPalmer said:
Charging to read PB, maybe? Perhaps we could offer discounts for those who only read posts from malcolmg and fluffythoughts?Charles said:
In general, there is very little in the world that wouldn't be improved by clear, fair and transparent charging structures.
I might be too phlegmatic on the polls, but SeanT is too excitable - he's declared looming disaster, certain triumph and now disaster again. It's clearly a good poll for Yes, but we already knew there was a debate bounce. If it repeats next week or accelerates will be the time to get worried.
As for the other ones - Lab lead up to 7 or down to 1 - still think Nothing. Is. Happening. Which is disappointing for UKIP - with a big defection, a big jump in immigration and all the discussion of Rotherham, yet no real movement at all, they must wonder what they need to do.0 -
But in what currency?isam said:Just a warning to all PBers I have bet with on the 2015 GE
Unless stated otherwise, all bets will stand regardless of Scottish Indy Ref result0 -
TFS The UK is the fastest growing economy in the G70
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Exactly the 'perfect storm' of all that is wrong with the UK, crying shame that these decent people and a dying boy have to suffer.isam said:Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 7m
Bullying police, an authoritarian NHS, a supine PCC, the European Arrest Warrant. The Ashya case tells us everything about UK officialdom0 -
I meant the No vote being between 50% and 51%.DavidL said:
It would also mean that our returning officers could not count up to 100. A serious state of affairs indeed.AndyJS said:50-51% No would be a horrible result. It would mean English people living in Scotland were responsible for stopping Scottish independence.
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GIN1138 Salmond and the SNP had a clear lead in 2011 after the debates, No is still in front even after his post debate bounce0
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How are Labour performing in Wales?HYUFD said:SeanT Labour still leads in England and Wales even without Scotland, under FPTP Ed Miliband can still be PM in rUK with UKIP splitting the Tory vote
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Next one in 2016 instead of 2015 cos of fixed-term Parliament act in Westminster.Carnyx said:Neil said:
Eh? The Scottish Parliament was on a 4 year schedule ... 1999, 2003, 2007 - there was no election due in 2010.Carnyx said:And note that we had to wait an extra year for our Scottish election when Westminster changed the rules and hogged May 2010 without checking with the Scots. Ironic really - Labour could for all I know have won without that postponement and we wouldn't be here ...
Sorry, must have had a brainstorm. Something vaguely of the sort happened but I can't pin it down. Please ignore ...Neil said:
Eh? The Scottish Parliament was on a 4 year schedule ... 1999, 2003, 2007 - there was no election due in 2010.Carnyx said:And note that we had to wait an extra year for our Scottish election when Westminster changed the rules and hogged May 2010 without checking with the Scots. Ironic really - Labour could for all I know have won without that postponement and we wouldn't be here ...
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Their performance in the Euros there was solid.nigel4england said:
How are Labour performing in Wales?HYUFD said:SeanT Labour still leads in England and Wales even without Scotland, under FPTP Ed Miliband can still be PM in rUK with UKIP splitting the Tory vote
Like on so many other things, the PBTories don't seem to realise that something they take as an undoubted truth (that the Welsh Labour administration is supposedly so incompetent) is not a view shared by voters.0 -
I guessed but I am feeling a tad facile this evening. Can't think why!AndyJS said:
I meant the No vote being between 50% and 51%.DavidL said:
It would also mean that our returning officers could not count up to 100. A serious state of affairs indeed.AndyJS said:50-51% No would be a horrible result. It would mean English people living in Scotland were responsible for stopping Scottish independence.
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How are UKIP doing in Wales?Danny565 said:
Their performance in the Euros there was solid.nigel4england said:
How are Labour performing in Wales?HYUFD said:SeanT Labour still leads in England and Wales even without Scotland, under FPTP Ed Miliband can still be PM in rUK with UKIP splitting the Tory vote
Like on so many other things, the PBTories don't seem to realise that something they take as an undoubted truth (that the Welsh Labour administration is supposedly so incompetent) is not a view shared by voters.0 -
Parents flee doctors with sick child to unknown destination minus his medical treatment? And his medical records. There is somethjing wrong all right. Something wrong with you.nigel4england said:
Exactly the 'perfect storm' of all that is wrong with the UK, crying shame that these decent people and a dying boy have to suffer.isam said:Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 7m
Bullying police, an authoritarian NHS, a supine PCC, the European Arrest Warrant. The Ashya case tells us everything about UK officialdom0 -
I am not confident enough of the facts in the King case but it does seem to me that any proceedings of any nature should have been dropped as soon as it was ascertained that the poor boy was receiving appropriate medical care in Spain.
I would fully accept that both the hospital and police had to act in the first instance but this does seem ridiculous.0 -
Isam
"Compare the number of parents put in custody for doing the best for their dying child this year vs the amount of parents charged for allowing FGM in the last twenty"
You raise an interesting comparison. Obviously parents who subject their daughters to FGM are doing what they believe is in the best interest of their child but as many parents have discovered what they believe to be in the best interests of the child isn't the final word.
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Huzzah for the good sense of the GB public
Via ComRes
But most Britons oppose the call by Boris Johnson that Britons travelling to Iraq and Syria without telling the authorities to be presumed to be terrorists until they are proved innocent. 52 per cent believe it should not happen and 39 per cent agree it should.0 -
Any canvassing reports tonight DavidL.
Paddy Power makes Dundee the favourite to get the biggest % of yes votes.0 -
Better Together have run such a terrible campaign that if they point out on the day of the vote that, in an independent Scotland, they'll be running the show, we'll all vote for No in our droves.0
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Imagine a year ago I said to you youd be saying UKIP were disappointed to be polling 15-17%NickPalmer said:
Charging to read PB, maybe? Perhaps we could offer discounts for those who only read posts from malcolmg and fluffythoughts?Charles said:
In general, there is very little in the world that wouldn't be improved by clear, fair and transparent charging structures.
I might be too phlegmatic on the polls, but SeanT is too excitable - he's declared looming disaster, certain triumph and now disaster again. It's clearly a good poll for Yes, but we already knew there was a debate bounce. If it repeats next week or accelerates will be the time to get worried.
As for the other ones - Lab lead up to 7 or down to 1 - still think Nothing. Is. Happening. Which is disappointing for UKIP - with a big defection, a big jump in immigration and all the discussion of Rotherham, yet no real movement at all, they must wonder what they need to do.
Don't get caught up in the moment Nick0 -
Jacks ARSE under threat ?0
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True, but there is a difference between mutilating a healthy child and seeking a different remedy for one who is dyingRoger said:Isam
"Compare the number of parents put in custody for doing the best for their dying child this year vs the amount of parents charged for allowing FGM in the last twenty"
You raise an interesting comparison. Obviously parents who subject their daughters to FGM are doing what they believe is in the best interest of their child but as many parents have discovered what they believe to be in the best interests of the child isn't the final word.
In my world anyway
But no one has been charged with FGM in 30 years... wonder why?0 -
How do you know he was without his medical treatment? According to the reports he had the relevant feeding tubes and batteries etc.Flightpath said:
Parents flee doctors with sick child to unknown destination minus his medical treatment? And his medical records. There is somethjing wrong all right. Something wrong with you.nigel4england said:
Exactly the 'perfect storm' of all that is wrong with the UK, crying shame that these decent people and a dying boy have to suffer.isam said:Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 7m
Bullying police, an authoritarian NHS, a supine PCC, the European Arrest Warrant. The Ashya case tells us everything about UK officialdom
I have had children in hospital. When they leave, the hospital does not give me their medical records. It does not give me mine when I have left.
From where does this new offence of "leaving hospital without your medical records" come?
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