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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome could be very close indeed
What’s striking is that YouGov has been one of the pollsters which over the months has shown YES in one of the worst positions. This poll suggests that there’s been a marked turnaround.
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Didn't Blair Jenkins say Yes would be ahead by September?
They could have told punters a while ago about things like undecideds, Labour supporters, turnout, ground campaigns etc.
If it is a YES vote......Will you all miss me from PB?
;-)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2739790/Scotland-Yard-releases-new-Plebgate-CCTV-footage-details-conspiracy-officers-topple-Tory-government.html
Poll at end of this week should have the debate stuff out of the way?
I think he's wily enough not let that hostage of fortune be taken.
Why doesn't Cameron say that it would be subject to a UK wide referendum?
I'm not sure what No have got left in the locker. All the momentum is with Yes.
The No campaign hasn't been as bad as some make out, btw. Their databases and targetting are, I believe, pretty damn impressive. But will it be enough?
Will he?
I lean towards No.
What think others, Richard N for example?
I almost stopped posting completely when one of the usual persons posted a Scotsman story about 16 and 17 year olds being overwhelmingly no. It took me about 4 minutes to find it was a marketing ploy by a financial company (IFA sort of business) and not even a voodoo poll. And not only did the Scotsman trot it out as a front page story but a poster on this site thought it worth reporting without even a health warning.
On another tack: the Scottish Police Fed have told Mr Darling and chums to stop pretending there will be 'absolute carnage' at polling stations on the 18th (Herald this morning).
http://wingsoverscotland.com/bringing-the-smackdown/
also
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/01/scotland-referendum-campaigns-civil-police
EIC WILL BE PM!!
twitter.com/alawevans/status/506404216198672384/photo/1
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 40s
If the people of Scotland vote for independence I'll streak naked down Princes Street. It isn't happening folks.
PETER KELLNER 'When I first saw the results, I wanted to make sure this movement was real. It is.' #Yougov
If the people of Scotland vote for independence I'll streak naked down Princes Street. It isn't happening folks.
@DPJHodges
Things are hotting up - I take it there have been no tinkerings with YouGov's methodology?
Sadly, I see little ability in NO to fight to the finish and turn this around. So many seem to have given up. Murphy's not on the streets, Darling has lost his confidence, Galloway's been beaten up and Brown is invisible. Some of the NO TV spots and ads are awful.
I think YES has played very dirty - as well as promising nirvana - but they've won over the hearts of most Scots and silenced the rest. But they only need to win once.
"Now Game of Thrones"
Catastrophic. I now think the union is lost ... Recession will ensue for us all.
Dark times.
You working on the next episode?
;-)
You are playing it the smart way though: stay with one firm for the basics and then shop around for other products needed as appropriate. That's exactly the right way to play it. Too many people just stick with the same bank for everything.
The other problem is free current account banking. It's completely crazy: the infrastructure needed to support current accounts is hugely expensive - and the refusal of customers to pay for it means that banks need to find the money from other places, whether it is unreasonable flat fees for minor transgressions, ludicrous penalties or cross-selling of inappropriate products.
My Dad has spent many years impressing on me the view that banking should be like a utility: conservative, low return and boring. None of this fancy stuff - most customers don't need, want or understand the products.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/01/25/it-couldnt-happen-could-it-pm-farage/
Unless there is evidence or very strong suspicion of cruelty or harm to the child by their presence could such an order, IMO, be justified. Has anyone said this?
I repeat what I said on earlier threads: if he dies, how are the authorities - both here and in Spain - going to feel/react? How do they imagine his parents and his family will feel? How do they think his parents are feeling now?
If the issue is what is the best health care for the little boy, that is something which could be sorted out, with a little goodwill. But such draconian powers should only be used in extremis not because a hospital does not agree with what the parents are doing.
On the football transfer front.. Hull seem to be making a lot of signings
Gaston Ramirez, Hatem Ben Arfa, & Abel Hernandez... all decent
England will be fine with the outcome, but Rexel65 is right. Nothing else would feature in politics for the next couple of years.
The prospect of kippers and scotnats frothing about betrayals on PB is enough to drive a man to drink.
That was before the 2nd debate where Darling looked like a frightened child, stumbled over his words, looked like he wasn't sure he believed what he was saying and (most importantly) simply couldn't handle Salmond.
And this man was one of Labour's "big guns" for years?
YES 42%(+4), NO 48%(-4), DK/WNV 10%(-1)
Deeply saddened and disappointed. A real shame. But the people of Scotland have voted. So now we must look to build a brighter future. Together. As partners. Independent. But friends. etc. etc. until you want to throw up.
CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%
ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB lead increase to 7%
CON 28+1
LAB 35+2
LD 9+1
UKIP 17=
Sean's argument is compelling too though.
Say there's a 50/50 chances of Yes, and a 50/50 chance of Dave going. That's 25% chance of Cameron stepping down in a few weeks.
Decisions decisions...
It still isn't over. Yes clearly have the momentum, but this could be an outlier, or just an overreaction to the debate. We need more polling to know.
I'm editing PB straight after the Indyref, when Mike goes on holiday, and nothing major ever happens when Mike goes on holiday.
What banks want to do with all their talk of ending "free banking" is carry on paying me a derisory rate and then charge me on top for accessing my own money, which is losing value because I am not getting a proper return on it.
No thanks.
One can have some sympathy with the parents but why should that translate into the usual knee jerk attack on the people who are responsible for his treatment? The dreaded 'authorities'?
The No campaign has been awful, from what I can gather. It certainly has not persuaded me - a Londoner - why we're better together. So I can't imagine why it would persuade a Scotsman or woman of that.
From a political perspective it would be rather fun to see what would happen as a result.
And now for the important question: should I move my money from RBS when I return from my hols on the 15th of September?
Mark McDonald @markmcdsnp 31 mins
So at tonight's @WomenForIndy event in Oldmeldrum I met @FraserNelson's auntie. The world is full of surprises.
But, more sadly than any of that, it will divide these islands and the families that live within them. There are more cultural similarities between ourselves and the Scots than any other nation I could name on earth. It would break my heart to see them go.
I am oscillating between despair and resignation, to worried emotional appeals. And there's still 2.5 weeks to go.
Grab me some Valium.
Stay tuned.
If banks were able to charge for current accounts, they could pay sensible interest rates on the loans that they get from their customers and they wouldn't need to go chasing after hot money.
The interest spread should be seen as a fee to cover the risk of the loan plus a fee for the service involved in the provision of liquidity.
In general, there is very little in the world that wouldn't be improved by clear, fair and transparent charging structures.
Number of Clacton Conservatives follow @DouglasCarswell to UKIP. The Tory exodus continues. http://thetim.es/1unSqwF
But to ban completely all contact between a dying child and his parents. Between him and his brothers and sisters? Really? How is that in the best interests of the little boy? He is sick and surrounded by strangers. When he calls for his "Mummy" in the middle of the night and she does not come, who comforts him?
For God's sake: unless there is something we have not been told, it seems to me unnecessarily cruel to do what is being done here.
(a) Cameron resigns (almost certainly).
(b) Tories hold 305 seats out of 591 in Commons.
English Parliament is a different matter, of course.
Instead there was complacency, condescension, boredom, ignorance. Braveheart! Cybernats! Currency! Give me strength.
All while Yes was organising and preparing.
Still, too early to write the Union's obituary. But squeeky bum time...
Scottish independence staring you in the face.
UKIP seizing the narrative with a likely byelection victory and the prospect of a strong showing in coastal regions.
A weak, socialist Labour leader with a fairly consistent poll lead, and even winning on votes won't necessarily be good enough even to continue the Coalition.
At least he's got Clegg to keep him company
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf
"Cameron to be replaced as Conservative Leader before the next Election" at 8/1
or
"Cameron to leave post of PM in 2014" at 16/1?
If you think he is going to go in three weeks, the 16/1 is miles better... same odds and you dont have to guess who will replace him
The UK will survive...
The outcome is irrelevant, protecting the officials is all that matters.
How does SUKIP sound for, SMALLER UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Or UKIPEW for, UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY ENLAND & WALES?
Or DUKIP for, DISUNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Only if Wales slips lose can we call it the ENGLISH INDEPENDENCE PARTY.
And the reason I say that is that they don't currently pay a decent interest rate on those accounts where they charge a monthly fee for providing the square root of f*** all. They have tried selling those accounts to me and I have always asked whether I would get a better interest rate and they say no and I ask why I would buy the account then and they spout some drivel about possibly getting some holiday insurance at a preferential rate which usually turns out to be more expensive than what I can find elsewhere.
No: what will happen is that they will continue to pay me diddly squat in interest and - in addition - charge me excessive fees for the privilege of accessing my own money. So a thrifty person will be screwed twice over.
I may as well keep my money under the mattress.
16/1 Cameron out in 2014
Better than 50/1 & 25/1 Hague & Osborne
You could perhaps inquire whether it really is Mr C's fault (should a Yes happen) but rather whether the Tory backbenchers were so unwilling to let him lead them that they may end up dissolving the Union.