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The 10 Stages of a Crisis – politicalbetting.com

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    Leon said:

    Do you have any more exciting news from your brother “who has lived in Amsterdam since he was 20” but was somehow unaware that his entire country was in strict lockdown from mid December for four whole weeks?
    I replied to you yesterday. Over Christmas essential shops including off licences bicycle repairers cake shops and supermarkets were open but all entertainment shut at 8pm though he can't be absolutely sure because things were changing from day to day and it's difficult to keep up. You were allowed four people round on Christmas day. It was more shut down than the UK.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,796
    Stocky said:

    I'm sure this has already been posted:

    "People arriving in England from abroad will no longer have to take Covid tests if they are fully vaccinated, the government has confirmed.

    The changes will be introduced from 4am on 11 February "in time for the half term break", said Transport Secretary Grant Shapps."

    It’s excellent news for central London, which NEEDS those tourists back
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Red blobs on the screen if there’s rude bits? I’m struggling to find an emoticon that does my bewilderment justice.
    At the beginning only, when the title came on. A red blob hovered in the top right corner.

    *checks*

    Actually a red triangle ... and my memory was that it was very much to keep Mrs Whitehouse off, but only made things worse. Wiki does not match my memory in that respect.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_triangle_(Channel_4)
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979

    While actively shutting down nuclear etc too

    You couldn't have a much more Russophile German energy policy if an actively puppet government had been installed.
    Didn't Willy Brandt have to resign over a Stasi spy in the Chancellory?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022
    Cookie said:

    She represented views which had been moderately mainstream 25 years previously but which by the 80s seemed antediluvian. She frequently referred to Christianity in a way which seemed archaic at the time but in her mind I am sure Christianity still seemed a mainstream position.
    She was not a monster. Dominic Sandbrook writes interestingly about her in his 20th century history series.
    The advantage of Mary Whitehouse was that she kept broadcasters aware of excessive violence, whish is unfortunately now all too trendy, very rarely challenged, and an easy route to ratings. The disadvantage was her ridiculous views on sexuality in mainstream broadcasting.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    It was a small red triangle in the corner of the screen during the film in question.

    It was, as Carnyx said, a useful way of picking what to watch if you wanted to... expand your horizons.
    LOL. 🔺 - turn off now it’s filth 🤣
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568
    Roger said:

    Why do you tink wanting to answer questions in writing suggests he can't be trusted. I can see some very good reasons for it.
    That's not the reason I think he cannot generally be trusted. His history is the reason.

    That has nothing to do with whether I expect him to be generally corroborated or not on this matter, I don't see how Boris wriggles out of it. But are you telling me you trusted Cummings as an honest person say, before he started making accusations against Boris?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Leon said:

    It’s excellent news for central London, which NEEDS those tourists back
    This is by far the most hopeful I've felt since March 2020.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568

    I *like* nuclear explosions. Just not er... free range ones

    More like Project Orion....
    Whyever did we drop the idea of propelling spaceships by dropping nuclear bombs out the back? It's clearly cool hell.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,737

    Red blobs on the screen if there’s rude bits? I’m struggling to find an emoticon that does my bewilderment justice.
    It was supposed to be a warning triangle to warn those of a prudish nature. The fact that anything with a red "blob" or content warning got 10 times the audience it would otherwise have got was just one of the obvious flaws in the scheme.
  • The Six Day War? There was a context to it, but the actual shooting was clearly started by Israel. And they won.
    They fired the first shots but only after Egypt had closed the Straits of Tiran which was the casus belli that started the six day war.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Cookie said:

    She represented views which had been moderately mainstream 25 years previously but which by the 80s seemed antediluvian. She frequently referred to Christianity in a way which seemed archaic at the time but in her mind I am sure Christianity still seemed a mainstream position.
    She was not a monster. Dominic Sandbrook writes interestingly about her in his 20th century history series.
    'Not a monster'? Opposed to PIE, yes, I have no problem with that, but trying to put people in prison on archaic blasphemy laws? Even if her views on gays reflected a generation earlier.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534
    Complete, forensic and utter takedown of the latest anti-vax loon stuff about only 17K have actually died of covid itself:

    https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1485570730867765251

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,796
    Roger said:

    I replied to you yesterday. Over Christmas essential shops including off licences bicycle repairers cake shops and supermarkets were open but all entertainment shut at 8pm though he can't be absolutely sure because things were changing from day to day and it's difficult to keep up. You were allowed four people round on Christmas day. It was more shut down than the UK.
    No, this is a lie

    Everything non-essential was shut you massive hairy twatting idiot. Including entertainment and hospitality.


    THE HAGUE, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The Netherlands will go into a strict lockdown over the Christmas and New Year period to try to contain the highly- contagious Omicron coronavirus variant, Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Saturday.

    All non-essential shops and services, including restaurants, hairdressers, museums and gyms will be closed from Sunday until Jan. 14. All schools will be shut until at least Jan. 9.

    "The Netherlands is again shutting down. That is unavoidable because of the fifth wave that is coming at us with the Omicron variant," Rutte told a televised news conference.


    Or try another source, like the Dutch government:


    Educational institutions and out-of-school care (BSO) are closed until at least 9 January 2022. There are some exceptions. On 3 January the government will decide in what form education will resume from 10 January.
    All hospitality venues are closed, except for delivery and takeaway.
    All non-essential shops are closed, except for click and collect and returns.


    Or the BBC:


    Covid: Dutch go into Christmas lockdown over Omicron wave https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59713503


    The 8pm curfew came BEFORE, in November, then they tightened it to a Xmas lockdown. You’’re just a silly fool, give it up



    Bar, restaurants to close at 8 pm
    Move comes day after new infections hit record
    Partial lockdown to last three weeks
    Social distancing reimposed immediately

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/netherlands-impose-partial-lockdown-halt-covid-19-surge-media-2021-11-12/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Leon said:

    It’s excellent news for central London, which NEEDS those tourists back
    One thing I’ve noticed about pretty much every government announcement on international travel in the past two years, is that they have all been geared towards outbound travel - Brits taking holidays abroad - when in fact the more important travel is the inbound travel, bringing in foreign currency and keeping the tourist economy turning over.
  • alednamalednam Posts: 186
    And if the Party's the institution that you're trying to preserve, you may have to face revelations of some bits of recent history. Personally I thought that Cameron’s and a top civil servant’s lobbying for Greenssill was quite a big deal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited January 2022
    eek said:

    It was supposed to be a warning triangle to warn those of a prudish nature. The fact that anything with a red "blob" or content warning got 10 times the audience it would otherwise have got was just one of the obvious flaws in the scheme.
    Modern film ratings are the same. “18. Contains violence, nudity, depictions of drug use, and scenes of a sexual nature” Sounds good!

    As an aside, my local cinemas have just introduced a “21” rating, meaning what you think it does, but finally means the local censors won’t be taking a large pair of scissors to much of Hollywood’s output.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    kle4 said:

    Whyever did we drop the idea of propelling spaceships by dropping nuclear bombs out the back? It's clearly cool hell.
    Test Ban Treaty outlawed in-atmosphere nuke explosions.

    But there are some great youtubes of high-explosive model tests.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited January 2022

    It was a small red triangle in the corner of the screen during the film in question.

    It was, as Carnyx said, a useful way of picking what to watch if you wanted to... expand your horizons.
    IIRC I don't think the red triangle was for run-of-the-mill filth, which could be found quite easily late at night in the 70s and early 80s on BBC2 and ITV so long as the films were foreign (I recall LWT ran them as the "Adult Continental Movie" series). The red triangle was for stuff that would challenge the BBFC for certification. And it was also all foreign filth too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Coincidental deaths WITH covid. My analysis, probably around 5,000. Certainly no more than 10,000

    https://ponyonthetories2.blogspot.com/2022/01/normal-0-false-false-false-en-gb-x-none.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Leon said:

    It’s excellent news for central London, which NEEDS those tourists back
    What we really need is a Mayor who can let go of the pandemic as well though. Sadiq seems singularly determined to remind everyone about it and advertise to the world that London is a plague city despite the fact that it isn't really. Lots of media and assorted lefties also need to stop talking the nation down internationally or making bogus comparisons and using idiotic terms like "plague island". It's really dented the confidence of some Europeans from coming to the UK. The conversation I had with my Italian colleague still rings in my ears, loads of them really do believe that people were dying in the streets of London unable to get healthcare, that hasn't been helped by the blue ticks on twitter trying to pretend it is.

    I also think we need to wind down the daily COVID dashboard as well, maybe by the end of March. Two years seems fair.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,945
    Sandpit said:


    Surely that behaviour is out and out fraud, with the accountant complicit if not reporting their suspicions?

    Many take the loans with good intentions, but then spend it on other stuff. Quite a few reported their client using the money to buy a motor (clearly not acceptable), others reported their client used it to buy food (no matter what you say, its NOT a business expense, but it certainly is morally right to avoid starving to death). I think quite a lot have submitted SARs, but that is where the accountants duty ends. They report it, then plod takes over (or rather doesn't, as they're overworked and underpaid).

  • mwadams said:

    The classic Yes Minister reply - "we have found no evidence" ...because we haven't looked for any evidence.
    Well here is some evidence of abuse of levelling up funding, from last year:-

    A fund intended to boost the UK’s most deprived places appears overwhelmingly skewed towards Tory-held areas, with dozens of Conservative regions in the top tier for assistance despite being relatively affluent, a Guardian analysis has found.

    Among 93 English regions placed in the priority group of three tiers to receive money from the £4.8bn levelling up fund, 31 are included while not being ranked as in the top third most deprived places by average deprivation score.

    Of these 31, 26 are entirely represented by Conservative MPs, with the others having at least one Tory MP.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/04/tories-accused-of-levelling-up-stitch-up-over-regional-deprivation-fund

    If Michael Gove does not like the Guardian, the FT ran its own similar analysis (paywalled). Other evidence might come from backbenchers reporting whips' threats to withhold funding from their constituencies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,796
    MaxPB said:

    What we really need is a Mayor who can let go of the pandemic as well though. Sadiq seems singularly determined to remind everyone about it and advertise to the world that London is a plague city despite the fact that it isn't really. Lots of media and assorted lefties also need to stop talking the nation down internationally or making bogus comparisons and using idiotic terms like "plague island". It's really dented the confidence of some Europeans from coming to the UK. The conversation I had with my Italian colleague still rings in my ears, loads of them really do believe that people were dying in the streets of London unable to get healthcare, that hasn't been helped by the blue ticks on twitter trying to pretend it is.

    I also think we need to wind down the daily COVID dashboard as well, maybe by the end of March. Two years seems fair.
    Perhaps Boris can resign and become Mayor of London again. I would happily vote for him. It was probably his ideal job

    I mean, he was necessary to win the Brexit referendum and probably the only guy/girl who could have won that majority to force Brett through, but now that’s done, he seems done. Mission Accomplished. What is his ambition now?

    If Boris goes back to being Mayor then Sadiq can move to his ideal job which is probably film censor in Rabat
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    edited January 2022
    RedfieldWilton lead for labour is down to 7%

    Labour 41 (-2) Conservatives 34 (+4)

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1485658684701253646?t=y2xaPJ2NDys1ZZYP4UoNwA&s=19
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    It did briefly flash up on the BBC website.

    The entire bounce back loans debarcle was entirely known about and could be seen coming down the line a year ago. I regularly frequent AccountingWeb/AnyAnswers forum (a riviting read for accountants and non-accountants alike.... okay, I jest; its as dry as anything) and every accountant on there was reporting that they felt for sure they had to file SARs (Suspicious Activity Reports, rather than Subject Access Requests) for a good number of their clients who'd taken the maximum bounceback loan of £50k, whizzed it up the wall on a new motor for themselves then filed DS01 a week later to strike their company off.

    I doubt even half of bounceback loans will ever be repaid.
    I have been sure Rishi was never going to come through this period without attempts to hollow him out in case there’s a leadership contest, because not everybody is on his side, certainly not outgoing regime who sees him swanning in like fresh broom.

    The weakness of Rishi’s position is lack of due diligence by the treasurey, who are ultimately responsible and can’t blame others.
    In particular, the treasury used banks to distribute out what wasn’t banks money but the taxpayers - and no one did diligence on how and to who it was going. The Treasury argument is it was the banks fault. And in something of thirty billion upwards we are talking eye watering sums of tax payers money estimates say lost to fraud.

    And there is various angles it can be attacked. Incompetence. But also the strengthing of criminals by handing them so much tax payers money, like arming the enemy and counteracting the funding of the police.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    RedfieldWilton lead for labour is down to 7%

    Labour 41 (-2) Conservatives 34 (+4)

    Boris winning here. 😕
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1485649813379362816

    Dorries yet again... Too many tweets make a twat, as the subject was fond of remarking. And Dorries tweets an awful lot.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022
    rpjs said:

    IIRC I don't think the red triangle was for run-of-the-mill filth, which could be found quite easily late at night in the 70s and early 80s on BBC2 and ITV so long as the films were foreign (I recall LWT ran them as the "Adult Continental Movie" series). The red triangle was for stuff that would challenge the BBFC for certification. And it was also all foreign filth too.
    In a way it also symbolised a better broadcasting era. A lot of those films straddled a wide range between genuinely arthouse and not, regardless of the soft-porn element quite frequently too. Meanwhile there was much less explicit violence on TV, partly, but not exclusively because of pressure from groups like MW's.

    Now explicit violence is long since normalised and mainstream, and the often interesting grey area between erotic and intellectual has long since disappeared on mainstream British TV, partly because of fears of accusations of sexism.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,625

    RedfieldWilton lead for labour is down to 7%

    Labour 41 (-2) Conservatives 34 (+4)

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1485658684701253646?t=y2xaPJ2NDys1ZZYP4UoNwA&s=19

    Good call @Marylmilton
  • Parliamentary group accuses Gambling Commission of being taken over by 'zealots'

    The Gambling Commission has been taken over by "ideological zealots" and is acting as if its purpose is to "destroy" the industry it regulates, according to the co-chair of a cross-party group of British MPs and peers.

    The comments from Scott Benton MP were made following the completion of a scathing report investigating the "competency and effectiveness" of the commission due to be published on Monday by the Parliamentary All Party Betting and Gaming Group.

    In reply, the Gambling Commission said it would respond to the group to "put straight inaccurate assumptions".

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/members/latest/parliamentary-group-accuses-gambling-commission-of-being-taken-over-by-zealots/533781 (£££)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,796

    Boris winning here. 😕
    Lol!

    Suddenly a hundred Tory MPs put down their quills, and have second thoughts
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    kle4 said:

    Whyever did we drop the idea of propelling spaceships by dropping nuclear bombs out the back? It's clearly cool hell.
    Some of the tests would have been fun as well - even the non-nuclear ones.

    One of them was to test the shock adsorbing piston system.

    To do that, they were going to mount an Orion upside down in the desert. Frisbees, weighing 50-100 tons, made of TNT would be fired by rocket motors over the piston and detonated. One every couple of seconds.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,309

    Listening to Boris live just now he is all bluster and avoiding all the questions on Sue Gray and cost of living crisis

    It is embarrassing, partygate is paralysing Boris and HMG and this report is desperately needed now so the consequences can happen, whatever they are, and the nation can move on

    I would say that reading between the lines the NI increase looks likely to be postponed, if not cancelled altogether

    Indeed the Gray report needs to be published quickly so Big Dog can sack the guilty and get on with defeating the Russians.

    Canning the ridiculous Labour NI rise is another vote winner for Big Dog.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Boris bounce back begins!

    LAB: 41% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+4)
    LDEM: 11% (+2)
    GRN: 5% (-2)
    REFUK: 3% (-1)
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1485659356318232579?s=20
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Yes I also looked at the Phuket “Sandbox” but there is still that horrible risk of getting a positive test on arrival. Then you’re fucked

    I don’t want to bang on, but Sri Lanka is doing the right thing. They have cleverly instructed their airline (direct flights from LHR) to allow totally-refundable tickets and the hotels are all offering Free Cancellation Booking. So the risk is as minimal as it gets in these difficult times. If you get a positive PCR before the flight you can get a total refund. There is NO test on arrival so zero risk there

    As a result the hotels are bustling, and Galle is almost full. Today saw an influx of Russians into my Colombo gaff. Not sure if that’s a “coincidence”

    I have also just had possibly the juiciest tempura prawns of my life. Big fat scrumptious things, with a home made dipping chilli sauce, by the crashing Indian Ocean. Cost? £3

    My God, the contrast with last winter when I was personally staring into the deep abyss of Total Winter Lockdown. Yesterday I found some diary notes I made at that time. The bleakness was intense. A writhing despair
    Shit I hadn't really thought of that

    Cape Verde:

    "Your temperature will be taken on arrival in Cape Verde. If it is high, you will be taken to an assigned area at the airport where it will be measured again. If your temperature remains high, the Cape Verde authorities may need you to do a COVID-19 test."

    Sounds a bit more wiggle room: no temp no test.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

    image
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    I suspect France will drop the obligatory testing like a stone when it gets past its omicron peak, which is happening now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    UK local R

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,118
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+4)
    LDEM: 11% (+2)
    GRN: 5% (-2)
    REFUK: 3% (-1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 24 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Jan
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Leon said:

    Perhaps Boris can resign and become Mayor of London again. I would happily vote for him. It was probably his ideal job

    I mean, he was necessary to win the Brexit referendum and probably the only guy/girl who could have won that majority to force Brett through, but now that’s done, he seems done. Mission Accomplished. What is his ambition now?

    If Boris goes back to being Mayor then Sadiq can move to his ideal job which is probably film censor in Rabat
    Oh man, I'd take Boris back in an instant. The job of the Mayor is to advertise London on a global scale, whether that's to tech startups, to financial services companies, tourists or top global chefs looking for new restaurant sites. Sadiq is completely incapable of doing any of this. The running of the city happens automatically anyway, it really was the perfect job for Boris.
  • RedfieldWilton lead for labour is down to 7%

    Labour 41 (-2) Conservatives 34 (+4)

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1485658684701253646?t=y2xaPJ2NDys1ZZYP4UoNwA&s=19

    Must be an outlier :)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Leon said:

    Perhaps Boris can resign and become Mayor of London again. I would happily vote for him. It was probably his ideal job

    I mean, he was necessary to win the Brexit referendum and probably the only guy/girl who could have won that majority to force Brett through, but now that’s done, he seems done. Mission Accomplished. What is his ambition now?

    If Boris goes back to being Mayor then Sadiq can move to his ideal job which is probably film censor in Rabat
    Boris Johnson's only subsequential act as mayor was to cancel the planned Eastern river crossing, which means that every time a gnat farts in the Blackwall Tunnel there is gridlock in SE London.
    He was an arse then, he is an arse now. He should go back to writing racist columns in the Telegraph and Spectator for retired colonels in the Home Counties to pleasure themselves to - it really is his sole area of comparative advantage.
  • Leon said:

    You are forgiven, because you are probably in bed, and we are also at war
    Actually a pretty good quote you posted, though pretty darn snarky (and brave?) directed at the likes of Cyclefree!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568
    Leon said:

    Lol!

    Suddenly a hundred Tory MPs put down their quills, and have second thoughts
    As if they needed much reason. Of course, it is possible people started to return on the basis they thought Boris was going to go.

    Or it was just such a fall that some recovery was inevitable.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I am glad we agree that it is, in fact, the Government's job to help delay death from natural causes, but, yes, of course, what measures we take should be guided by cost-effectiveness.
    Lockdowns were, as far as we know, never subject to a cost-benefit analysis. And I think it's pretty obvious why.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    Case Summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    Hospitals

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    Deaths

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    rpjs said:

    IIRC I don't think the red triangle was for run-of-the-mill filth, which could be found quite easily late at night in the 70s and early 80s on BBC2 and ITV so long as the films were foreign (I recall LWT ran them as the "Adult Continental Movie" series). The red triangle was for stuff that would challenge the BBFC for certification. And it was also all foreign filth too.
    I love Foreign Filth!

    Has anyone seen Holiday?

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/holiday_2018
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    One thing that's been bothering me - who paid for the Downing Street suitcases of booze? A weekly whip round among the staff? BJ put his hands in his pocket (unlikely). The taxpayer?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    Age related data

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357

    One thing that's been bothering me - who paid for the Downing Street suitcases of booze? A weekly whip round among the staff? BJ put his hands in his pocket (unlikely). The taxpayer?

    Isn't the taxpayer paying in any of those options?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,796

    Actually a pretty good quote you posted, though pretty darn snarky (and brave?) directed at the likes of Cyclefree!
    It was coined by that late, great PB-er @SeanT in one of his early so-called “literary” novels
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728
    .

    OH FOR FUCK'S SAKE!!!
    I'm sure @Leon hears that often.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,118
    🚨 Lord Agnew's resignation added to the ministerial resignations chart: Johnson pulls decisively clear of Brown, with a few months to go until he overtakes him in No10

    May still the undisputed leader, of course 🚨 https://twitter.com/timd_IFG/status/1485649436797808640/photo/1
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,309
    HYUFD said:
    Labour really are useless. A full 7 percentage points in front and barely ahead on seats. Utterly useless.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+4)
    LDEM: 11% (+2)
    GRN: 5% (-2)
    REFUK: 3% (-1)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 24 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Jan

    Looks like Partygate fatigue and a war bounce, to me. Cummings could need to fire up those hard drives again with something quite new, or hitting home in a new way, if he wants to make a difference.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Lol!

    Suddenly a hundred Tory MPs put down their quills, and have second thoughts
    Phoney war syndrome. They recovered over Xmas/NY as well.
    kle4 said:

    Whyever did we drop the idea of propelling spaceships by dropping nuclear bombs out the back? It's clearly cool hell.
    It took a lot more nukes than you'd think for it to work. Like, dropping one out every 10 seconds for a week or something
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited January 2022

    Labour really are useless. A full 7 percentage points in front and barely ahead on seats. Utterly useless.
    Looks remarkably like 2010 on seats, just Labour and Tories reversed and LDs having fewer MPs.

    Boris Brown, Starmer Cameron, Davey Clegg and Sunak David Miliband?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Nigelb said:

    .

    I'm sure @Leon hears that often.
    The vanilla glitch
    Lends itself to poetry
    Will it e'er be fixed
  • This is for Leon . . . She's back! . . .

    Politico.com - Palin v. New York Times pushes new boundaries on libel suits
    The libel case focuses on a 2017 editorial that suggested a link between a PAC’s map and a deadly Arizona shooting.

    More than a decade after Sarah Palin found herself roundly mocked by the nation’s media elite as a small-town rube during her stint as Sen. John McCain’s populist vice presidential running mate, the former Alaska governor has a chance this week to strike back in court at those she viewed as her tormentors.

    Palin is set to take on the colossus of the establishment press, The New York Times, in a libel suit she filed over a 2017 editorial that erroneously linked her political activities to the 2011 shooting attack in Tucson, Ariz., that left six people dead and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) badly wounded.

    Within a day, the Times corrected the editorial and noted that no connection was ever established between the rampage and a map that Palin’s political action committee circulated with crosshairs superimposed on the districts of 20 Democrats, including Giffords. The Times also acknowledged it erred by suggesting that the crosshairs appeared over images of the candidates themselves.

    Some media advocates say the fact that the case is going to trial at all is a sign that almost a half-century of deference to the press in the courts is giving way to a more challenging legal landscape for journalists, media companies and their attorneys. . . .

    But less than two weeks after the errant editorial ran, Palin filed suit against the Times, accusing the news outlet of defaming her.

    After years of litigation, as well as delays because of the coronavirus pandemic, a trial in Palin’s suit is scheduled to begin with jury selection on Monday in federal court in New York City.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/23/sarah-palin-new-york-times-00000541
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    COVID summary

    - Cases level. Still due to the younger unvaccinated group having higher incidence.

    image

    - In hospital. Down.
    - MV Beds Down.
    - Admissions. Down. A lot.
    - Deaths flat. with a possible hint of starting to fall?

    image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728

    It did briefly flash up on the BBC website.

    The entire bounce back loans debarcle was entirely known about and could be seen coming down the line a year ago. I regularly frequent AccountingWeb/AnyAnswers forum (a riviting read for accountants and non-accountants alike.... okay, I jest; its as dry as anything) and every accountant on there was reporting that they felt for sure they had to file SARs (Suspicious Activity Reports, rather than Subject Access Requests) for a good number of their clients who'd taken the maximum bounceback loan of £50k, whizzed it up the wall on a new motor for themselves then filed DS01 a week later to strike their company off.

    I doubt even half of bounceback loans will ever be repaid.
    Agnew's account of his struggles to get it taken seriously are damning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jan/24/uk-politics-boris-johnson-conservatives-labour-nusrat-ghani
    ...The oversight by both BEIS [the Department for Business, Enterprise and Industry Strategy] and the British Business Bank of the panel lenders of BBLs has been nothing less than woeful. They have been assisted by the Treasury, who appear to have no knowledge or little interest in the consequences of fraud to our economy or our society... etc.

    The fact that he's (apparently) close to Gove and Truss might account for the timing of this, but he does seem to have resigned for good reason, out of sheer frustration with the government.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,796
    MaxPB said:

    Oh man, I'd take Boris back in an instant. The job of the Mayor is to advertise London on a global scale, whether that's to tech startups, to financial services companies, tourists or top global chefs looking for new restaurant sites. Sadiq is completely incapable of doing any of this. The running of the city happens automatically anyway, it really was the perfect job for Boris.
    Yup


    Basically, to “run” - or rather promote - a big young global partying vibrant have-fun-and-make-money please-come-here world city like London, you need to be a hedonist. Literally. Boris and Ken were both that, in very different ways

    Sadiq is a small minded teetotaller puritan. He’s got the exactly wrong skill set for the job, which is one reason, I think, he is so bad at it. He doesn’t like it. Doesn’t sit well

    OTOH I have friends in Tooting who say Khan was an excellent constituency MP. Diligent and caring. Good at the small stuff. He should go back to the small stuff, where he’d probably be happier - and get more things done
  • Indeed the Gray report needs to be published quickly so Big Dog can sack the guilty and get on with defeating the Russians.

    Canning the ridiculous Labour NI rise is another vote winner for Big Dog.
    I would be delighted if the NI rise were canned.

    That's what lost the government my support.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,309

    RedfieldWilton lead for labour is down to 7%

    Labour 41 (-2) Conservatives 34 (+4)

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1485658684701253646?t=y2xaPJ2NDys1ZZYP4UoNwA&s=19

    Awesome fightback by Bozza.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,700
    Applicant said:

    Lockdowns were, as far as we know, never subject to a cost-benefit analysis. And I think it's pretty obvious why.
    I think Government members and civil servants thought hard about introducing lockdowns, and their thinking included weighing up costs and benefits. Whether they did formal analyses... I can see there may not have been time, particularly for the first one.

    We're seeing a lot of research on all aspects of COVID-19, and I'm sure that will continue. There will be many analyses done that will help inform future choices.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    COVID summary

    - Cases level. Still due to the younger unvaccinated group having higher incidence.

    image

    - In hospital. Down.
    - MV Beds Down.
    - Admissions. Down. A lot.
    - Deaths flat. with a possible hint of starting to fall?

    image

    That's Hudson, Sir.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022

    A joke at the time was that Channel 4 displayed a warning red triangle, and the BBC used "written by Dennis Potter".
    Yes, Dennis Potter was another great example of this broadcasting era. Sometimes veering into soft-porn, but also often simultaneously much more intelligent and literate than much British TV after that, from the late '90s onward.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,737
    Lawrence Freedman (co-author of the Chilcot report) posted this last week regarding the Gray report https://samf.substack.com/p/waiting-for-gray

    The last paragraph is probably the most important

    There is a distinction, which works for me but not, I discovered during the Iraq Inquiry for many lawyers, between legality and legitimacy. In the end, whether one judged that, in some technical sense, the war was legal, because of its weak rationale, lack of domestic and international support, and painful, chaotic aftermath, it came to be seen as illegitimate. Equally even if Johnson can find a way to demonstrate that somehow he was not in breach of those strict rules that he had set down for the whole country his actions and those of his staff will still be viewed as illegitimate. Gray’s report will strengthen or weaken that impression, but I suspect it is too late for her to change it.

    The damage is done to Boris, the only thing that remains is how damaging is / was it
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    IshmaelZ said:

    That's Hudson, Sir.
    "Hudson, sir. He's Hicks."

    Come on... I feed these lines... the least you can do.... grumble, grumble....
  • Leon said:

    It was coined by that late, great PB-er @SeanT in one of his early so-called “literary” novels
    The Phil Collins Secret?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    The advantage of Mary Whitehouse was that she kept broadcasters aware of excessive violence, whish is unfortunately now all too trendy, very rarely challenged, and an easy route to ratings. The disadvantage was her ridiculous views on sexuality in mainstream broadcasting.
    Yes, for a while it seemed like every new crime drama would kick off with a young woman being brutally murdered. I got sick of it and went on strike. Seemed to work because there's a bit more diversity now. You get plenty of men and children also being brutally murdered.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,309

    I would be delighted if the NI rise were canned.

    That's what lost the government my support.
    Hats off to you, G and HY. I thought the big guy was dead in the water, but you were all correct and Big Dog lives, faster and stronger.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    IshmaelZ said:

    Phoney war syndrome. They recovered over Xmas/NY as well. It took a lot more nukes than you'd think for it to work. Like, dropping one out every 10 seconds for a week or something
    I see Ishmael still in the undergrowth fighting a war that’s been over for 20 years.

    What is it going to take to receive your surrender?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,737
    Somewhere a SPAD is having a good day

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1485649813379362816

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    Whether it’s a major music festival, sporting event or concert, it's important that people pay a fair price to see the events they love. Please remain vigilant when considering to buy from ticket touts. Guidance is available if you are unsure: http://fanfairalliance.org/faqs/

    image

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728
    Nigelb said:

    Agnew's account of his struggles to get it taken seriously are damning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jan/24/uk-politics-boris-johnson-conservatives-labour-nusrat-ghani
    ...The oversight by both BEIS [the Department for Business, Enterprise and Industry Strategy] and the British Business Bank of the panel lenders of BBLs has been nothing less than woeful. They have been assisted by the Treasury, who appear to have no knowledge or little interest in the consequences of fraud to our economy or our society... etc.

    The fact that he's (apparently) close to Gove and Truss might account for the timing of this, but he does seem to have resigned for good reason, out of sheer frustration with the government.
    I suspect this might be Rishi dished.
    ...Agnew said, at the start of the pandemic, BEIS had just two counter-fraud officials on its staff, neither of whom were experienced in this area. They refused to enagage with the counter-fraud team at the Cabinet Office reporting to Agnew, Agnrew said.

    Schoolboy errors were made, for example allowing over a thousand companies to receive bounceback loans that were not even trading when Covid struck ...

    I’ve been arguing with Treasury and Bay’s officials for nearly two years to get them to lift their game. I’ve been mostly unsuccessful.

    Agnew said he was particulary worried about how banks had been able to claim back 100% of some Covid loans that were written off. He said three out of the seven main lenders were responsible for 87% of the loans paid out to firms that are now dissolved. And two of the seven lenders were responsible for 81% of loans to firms set up after the pandemic started, he said.

    Agnew said, if only the British Business Bank would “wake up”, there was still time to take action on duplicate loans paid out. He went on:

    Despite pressing BEIS and BBB for over a year, there is still no single dashboard of management data to scrutinise lender performance. It is inexcusable.

    We’ve already paid out nearly £1bn pounds to banks claiming the state guarantee . The percentage of these losses estimated to be from fraud rather than credit failure is 26%. I accept this as only an earlier approximation but a very worrying one.

    Agnew said he had at least four differences of opinion with Treasury officials on what the government shoud be doing.

    He said there was a failure by Treasury and BEIS officials to understand the “complete disjunction” between the amount of criminal activity in this area, probably hundreds of thousands of cases, and the capacity of the enforcement agencies trying to stop it. For example, Natis, the National Investigation Service, can handle just 200 cases a year, he said....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211

    I see Ishmael still in the undergrowth fighting a war that’s been over for 20 years.

    What is it going to take to receive your surrender?
    Pointing the fun end of Project Orion ship at him?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, for a while it seemed like every new crime drama would kick off with a young woman being brutally murdered. I got sick of it and went on strike. Seemed to work because there's a bit more diversity now. You get plenty of men and children also being brutally murdered.
    Not doggies, though?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,211
    edited January 2022
    eek said:

    Somewhere a SPAD is having a good day

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1485649813379362816

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    Whether it’s a major music festival, sporting event or concert, it's important that people pay a fair price to see the events they love. Please remain vigilant when considering to buy from ticket touts. Guidance is available if you are unsure: http://fanfairalliance.org/faqs/

    image

    Strangely, given the source, that is spot on. He even looks a bit like one of the regulars, outside the Hammersmith Apollo.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Labour really are useless. A full 7 percentage points in front and barely ahead on seats. Utterly useless.
    Wouldn't happen in the real world, of course.
  • As I suspected Shapps has not removed the pain-in-the-arse "Passenger Locator Form". I thought when I did one recently "I bet the government won't get rid of these fecking things!"

    Annoyed to be proved right. If they don't need restrictions they do not need passenger locator forms.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    Pointing the fun end of Project Orion ship at him?
    It is so funny Z is refusing to admit the Boris coup has failed. 😂

    I’m busy tomorrow taking up the Pope’s call for an international day of "prayer for peace" so that dialogue defuses the Ukraine crisis. Hopefully that works, admittedly spoiling your fun but nevermind.

    It’s technically the 26th, but I’m going shopping then so need to get it out the way tomorrow. 🙋‍♀️
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    eek said:

    Somewhere a SPAD is having a good day

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1485649813379362816

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    Whether it’s a major music festival, sporting event or concert, it's important that people pay a fair price to see the events they love. Please remain vigilant when considering to buy from ticket touts. Guidance is available if you are unsure: http://fanfairalliance.org/faqs/

    image

    You tune into PB and see this. Political satire is dead.
  • eek said:

    Somewhere a SPAD is having a good day

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1485649813379362816

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    Whether it’s a major music festival, sporting event or concert, it's important that people pay a fair price to see the events they love. Please remain vigilant when considering to buy from ticket touts. Guidance is available if you are unsure: http://fanfairalliance.org/faqs/

    image

    Nadine must be shitting herself about Johnson getting ousted. No-one but The Clown would put such a numpty in a government job. Anyone know what her majority is? I'd be tempted to go and canvass for any party that has a chance of dislodging her.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819

    I think Government members and civil servants thought hard about introducing lockdowns, and their thinking included weighing up costs and benefits. Whether they did formal analyses... I can see there may not have been time, particularly for the first one.

    We're seeing a lot of research on all aspects of COVID-19, and I'm sure that will continue. There will be many analyses done that will help inform future choices.
    Fair enough - little time in March 2020. But thereafter, months and months to consider what the cost of lockdown was. With plenty of real world data to demonstrate the negatives.
    I can forgive March 2020. It was wrong, but understandable. But after that, no.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,309
    Applicant said:

    Wouldn't happen in the real world, of course.
    You mean .. uniform national swing is a false narrative. I slavishly follow HY's analysis, and it looks plausible to me.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    COVID summary

    - Cases level. Still due to the younger unvaccinated group having higher incidence.


    - In hospital. Down.
    - MV Beds Down.
    - Admissions. Down. A lot.
    - Deaths flat. with a possible hint of starting to fall?


    This one is surely just a function of 28 day incidence going down? In just over a week the two crisis peaks will have passed the 28 day mark meaning incidental admissions will fall quite a lot. This week's report into primary care will be interesting because last week it showed incidental up and non-incidentals falling, the funnel for non-incidentals is negative and positive for incidentals so the daily admissions must be well over half incidental at this stage, I'd make a finger in the air guess that ~60-70% of dashboard admissions were incidental over the last two weeks but that proportion will drop as incidence has dropped quite a lot.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    I expect they put it on Lord Brownlow's account.
    So the taxpayer paid then.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited January 2022
    Is it wrong to distrust Boris to the extent that he will use the Russia-Ukraine situation to save his own skin, even if that risks British interests?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    As I suspected Shapps has not removed the pain-in-the-arse "Passenger Locator Form". I thought when I did one recently "I bet the government won't get rid of these fecking things!"

    Annoyed to be proved right. If they don't need restrictions they do not need passenger locator forms.

    They said it's going to be simpler. We'll see, but I didn't find it a problem when I came back in September.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    ..yea and that Muslim stuff, like being teetotal. Makes people feel, well, you know, uncomfortable?
    And it wasn't teetotaller Khan who banned having a tinnie on the tube either.
This discussion has been closed.