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The 10 Stages of a Crisis – politicalbetting.com
The 10 Stages of a Crisis – politicalbetting.com
“When troubles come, they come not single spies but in battalions.” It’s hard these days keeping track of all the Tories’ various scandals. Outside business interests. Wallpaper. Doing favours for donors. Free foreign holidays. Parties. Disrespecting the Queen. Blackmailing MPs. Misusing public money. Sacking Muslim Ministers. Prioritising pets over people. So here is your handy Cut Out and Keep Guide to the various stages of how a small problem turns into a big crisis. For those in or supporting other parties enjoying the Tories’ troubles, remember it could be – and often has been – you.
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I agree with your analysis basically, the actual reason for the attempted coup was a subset of Tory feeling wanting to take control of the policy chalk board and put some rational plans onto it. We both agree on that?
Then the bit you don’t agree with me, this coup failed because they discovered they didn’t have enough fellow Tory’s agreeing with them on Boris being a failure, at this time.
But if I’m right you have to agree with me eventually, because in a few weeks time saying “the cowards have blown it, they’re spineless” is just too lazy and not thoughtful enough, to get to the real truth and learn something.
Thanks - interesting header.
Catharsis.
Hopefully.
Very nice if depressingly* sharp piece from Cyclefree, anyway.
PS * = because so recogniseable in politics.
After Johnson, Sunak.
Probably.
If not, then Sunk.
It's been a while, but for the masochists amongst you, here's the return of #TheWeekInTory
1. The PM said he’d done nothing wrong, and had therefore apologised to the Queen for doing it
2. He claimed he hadn’t broken rules because nobody had told him the rules, which he wrote
3. He said he’d have to wait for Sue Gray to tell him whether the gathering of people drinking booze from a suitcase and playing on his swing during a DJ set was a party
4. He claimed it had taken him 25 minutes to realise this might not be a business meeting
https://twitter.com/russincheshire/status/1485270354939494402?s=21
What kind of catharsis follows the nemesis in the long-term is difficult to determine - possibly a partial repudiation of Tory-populism internally, or some kind of political realignment following PR which moves Johnsonian populism off to a distinct grouping, while keeping it powerful.
Also considering SCONS rise in fortunes was a response to the SNP's dominance, they probably wouldn't have won thirteen seats in 2017. Take about ten of those away and add another 30 or Scottish seats onto what Corbyn won back then and he could have probably formed a minority government.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485570968017936386?s=20
So May would still have stayed PM with the backing of the 10 DUP MPs as the LDs would have abstained rather than support Corbyn or May, though of course May would still have been unable to get Brexit through
One underpriced dynamic is that some of the 1922 Committee executive is actively working against Johnson. You might think the body governing leadership rules is impartial — not in the Tory party, where the referees are players
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485571579476160516
vice chairs of 1922 - Ghani, Wragg
ETA No, it's the name of his column at https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/
And why is any of that more likely to be fixable with him than if he is gone ?
Desperate stuff.
I know people will disagree on this, especially you, but I think Boris Johnson is now destined to be regarded as a very, very poor prime minister.
A VONC with Boris getting 220-250 votes and not Boris getting 80-120 votes is the worst of all options.
Boris has been a successful PM but he's burnt too many bridges and became too arrogant. The hubristic attempt to save Patterson combined with not following own rules over drinking is the end of him.
But when all is said and done and once the heat and fire have gone out of this, he'll have a successful record. All careers end in failure, but his is over what should have been trivial stuff badly handled instead of getting the big calls on political issues like Brexit or vaccines wrong.
Indeed senior positions at 1922 are weighted towards older intakes, who I would have thought are more supportive. I would have assumed that the 1922 are pretty split because clearly there are some who are not fans, inc. Ghani.
It’s nearly a year since Cummings left, and they are yet to replace him.
Pre-partgate form:
Good example of the much pre-qualified “full and unreserved” apology:
…The document said that the ex-Foreign Secretary's apology should address the specific comments made Report,…
In a Commons statement this morning, he told MPs: "I fully accept that the delay was a breach of the House’s rules and though I’m grateful to the committee for recognising that there was no intention to mislead the House and that I have been completely transparent I therefore offer the House a full and unreserved apology.”…
The apology for mistakes which might, or might not (who knows ?), have been made:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-gives-non-apology-22409319
....“Certainly I’m sorry if I don’t apologise. Put it like that," he said, during a visit to a GP surgery in East London…
Asked to name one mistake, the Prime Minister told Sky News: “It would be invidious to single out any particular mistake…
Renault, plus the again much qualified “unreserved” (what does that actually mean, in the context ?) apology:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/08/boris-johnson-apologises-unreservedly-over-no-10-christmas-party-video
…Boris Johnson has said he “apologises unreservedly” for a video showing Downing Street officials joking about a staff party during the peak of lockdown last December, and has promised to hand over any evidence of law-breaking to police.
At a noisy prime minister’s questions, Johnson said he had been repeatedly assured that no party took place, and that he had been “shocked” by the emergence of the video…
…Before taking any questions, Johnson told the Commons he was “also furious to see that clip”, saying: “I can understand how infuriating it would be to think that the people who have been setting the rules have not been following the rules.”
He continued: “I apologise unreservedly for the offence that it has caused up and down the country, and apologise for the impression that it gives.”
To jeers from the opposition benches, Johnson said he had no personal knowledge of any party. He said: “I repeat that I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party, and that no Covid rules were broken.”…
To those who might have been offended by the nothing I did wrong…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/13/boris-johnson-british-public-prime-minister-no-10-lockdown-party
...As ever with non-apologies, he starts by saying “I want to apologise”. Then, after acknowledging the rage of those who “think” that Covid regulations were broken by Downing St, Johnson insists that “when I went into that garden just after six on 20 May 2020 … I believed implicitly that this was a work event”. He further insists that he was right since “it could be said technically to fall within the guidance”. However, “there are millions and millions of people who would not see it that way”. People, he added, who have “suffered terribly”. Finally, Johnson offers his “heartfelt apologies” to these people (and to the House of Commons).
According to this statement, the problem does not lie in anything Johnson did. The problem lies in the inability of the public to appreciate the facts – and if Johnson erred in any way, it was in not appreciating just how wrong the public can be.
“Misjudgments that were made” (by whom ?):
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/johnson-public-apology-queen-over-142610245.html
“I can only renew my apologies both to Her Majesty and to the country for misjudgments that were made, and for which I take full responsibility.”
Replying to The Valiant last thread - IIRC Alastair Meeks got fed up with being harassed over his pro-EU views. It'd be great if he could be encouraged back, as his excellent pieces are I think only reaching a small audience,
Replying to MoonRabbit - VONCs that fail are possible, simply because MPs are - how shall we put it - not always reliable in their assertions of what they will do in a secret ballot.
In this case, the root problem is not policy, whipping operations or Covid: it's Johnson's personal and political character - and that is not something that he can fix (and in any case, the other issues are consequences of that character, so they're not fixable either).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2022/01/24/martina-navratilova-slams-cowardly-australian-open-banning-peng/
Being objective, there's no reason to say that. First country in the world to roll out vaccines. First major country in the world to vaccinate all the vulnerable, then all the population (who wanted it). First major country in the world to roll out boosters. First country in Europe to lift all Covid restrictions.
Even setting aside the fact that he got Brexit done, which is why you hate him, since you hate Brexit, the credit ledger is quite full.
But as @Cyclefree aptly noted, its not simply a measure of credits v debits - if it was, he should stay in post, but it isn't. Some things can't be recovered from and breaking your own laws is one of them.
No way the Tories do a switch if there's a european war flaring up. Not now.
- Enthusiasm
- Disillusionment
- Panic
- The Search for the Guilty
- The punishment of the Innocent
- Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
What I do think he ought to do if he's forced out is to lie low for while. Having him around as the spectre at the feast will make his successors job, if a Tory, even harder.
Whether he can afford to do nothing is another matter. Whether anyone will give him an advance for a book is also open to question.
He was outspoken in his criticism of the Brexiteers and their cynical false prospectuses to different audiences.
Do we need any more than that to toss them out? Personally, I would like to see prosecutions. Given the goings on, some laws must have been broken.
I'd love him to be around, but it seemed a situation where being on PB only caused him anger rather than it being cathartic, and he both recieved and gave out verbal lashings, not a matter of him being hounded or harassed for being pro EU.
When the fun stops stop, as they say. Real shame though.
Didn't end well mind
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Davidson
What has changed is that fewer people understand how our Parliamentary system works and that the vast majority of us do not vote for the Prime Minister, they vote for a representative to represent their views in Parliament.
(Gino de Campo, ITV)
He doesn't have a cohesive ideology, so once personal appeal goes someone else is no worse. But he has surprised often.
My Boris fan relative is still all for him.
Or would you rather just scream fire in a crowded theatre and then when there's no fire just pretend you always knew all was fine.
But if you really feel that's the only way you can defend the prime minister, you'd better carry on with it.
EU foreign ministers are planning to condemn "Russia's continued aggressive actions and threats against Ukraine", while calling for de-escalation at Monday's (24 January) meeting in Brussels.
https://euobserver.com/world/154167
His government bought the vaccines and rolled them out, faster than any other major country on the planet. If you don't think that's worthy of credit, presumably you also don't think parties are worthy of blame?
What's sauce for the goose ...
IMO the government (and hence Johnson) can be praised for four things wrt boosters:
Recognising the need for boosters ahead of the event - before last summer.
Scheduling them for the elderly when they would be most effective over winter.
Expanding the booster scheme to under-50s when the issues with omicron became clear.
Ensuring we had supply.
There were issues with all of these, but generally they worked well.
But you're the one claiming there was a looming catastrophe were you not? You were extremely rude to me and others claiming we didn't understand exponential growth, simply because we disagreed with you.
Instead there were no new restrictions at the end of December as you were screaming were required and the number of people in intensive care is at a six-month low.
If you can't see the difference between your catastrophising and what really happened, then that speaks volumes.
A real shame. Pre-Brexit, as antifrank, he was one of my favorite posters.
Beginning Nov Paterson
End Nov peppa cbi speech
16 Dec North Salop
Allegra went on 8 Dec but partygate was in its infancy at the time of NS
Roll out programme as with all things fighting covid has been a National effort. Your attempt to stamp any success with Tory moniker there is quite disgusting.
Well I'm happy if that's true but how the blazers does anyone know this? How would that have leaked? Serious question.
My feeling is that Scots are pretty scunnered with Covid, Brexit, etc, and not really up for this. Misstep? Or more aimed at shoring up position in SNP - although she seems pretty secure to me.
https://news.stv.tv/politics/sturgeon-plans-to-introduce-independence-bill-in-the-coming-weeks
It is embarrassing, partygate is paralysing Boris and HMG and this report is desperately needed now so the consequences can happen, whatever they are, and the nation can move on
I would say that reading between the lines the NI increase looks likely to be postponed, if not cancelled altogether
You are wrong about that.
Despite being asked repeatedly @Chris refused to say what he would do in the then situation. We made him Prime Minister and King of the World and still answer/plan came there none.
.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/23/dont-worry-debt-rishi-sunak-can-still-afford-scrap-tax-rises/
Had the rollout been a disaster you wouldn't hesitate to blame the Tories for that now would you?
Virtually every other country on the planet has had fighting Covid as a national effort too but no other major nation has handled vaccines as well as the UK has. No other nation in Europe has been able to remove all restrictions before England.
And its only Tory-led England that avoided further restrictions in December too. NI, Wales and Scotland all handled that worse and felt the compulsion to impose new restrictions, which England didn't.