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Defection watch – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,807
edited February 2022 in General
imageDefection watch – politicalbetting.com

Following Christian Wakeford’s stunning act of tergiversation Smarkets have a market up on whether we’ll see more Tory defections by the end of the next month, based on the story below you can understand why.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,605
    “ video killed the HIGNFY star.” 👍🏻
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    One reason why Labour might have decided against a by-election in Bury South is if they are courting another MP with much lower chances of winning a fresh contest.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1484631877528993794

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Wakeford told the Observer that Johnson was doomed. “If Boris Johnson is hoping Sue Gray’s report will save his skin then he’s in for a shock.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/22/partygate-inquiry-given-access-to-log-of-staff-movements-in-and-out-of-building
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,989
    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,655
    edited January 2022
    Talk of more defections is aimed at putting more spine into those thinking of putting in letters to Sir Graham Brady....
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,632
    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    NZ was able to nail their pre-vaccine policy due to their isolation from the rest of the world; that they then didn't make a timely transition to a "live with it" strategy was mistake.

    Read the comments on this article and despair:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/red-alert-new-zealand-prepares-for-thousands-of-omicron-cases-a-day-with-community-spread?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,170
    According to Twitter up to 200 (!) trains worth of Russian troops are due to arrive in Belarus
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Interesting summary by Wakeford in that piece:

    "Many of my former colleagues have already reached the conclusion that he’s unfit to lead the Conservative party. Not just because he’s an electoral liability but because he’s actually unfit to run the country."

    This is why, on balance, I still think he will be ousted. The electoral liability might be brushed off as mid-term blues and reference to Boris Johnson's stunning success in 2019 (neatly ignoring Corbyn) would be made.

    That's not the issue and it's not what started all of this.

    It's that Boris Johnson is not fit to be prime minister. He's terrible. He wanted to be world king but wasn't up to the job.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,190
    Good morning, everyone, and welcome to today's edition of Where's That Backbone?

    Will today be the day Conservative MPs discover a collective spine and oust the incompetent? Probably not.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,377
    I listened to the Steve Baker interview with Nick Robinson that was posted and see also he’s early out the traps on the Nus Ghani story. Seems a very decent and self aware bloke to me. From what he said (and what Aaron just tweeted), sounds like anyone betting on Boris surviving the Gray report will be disappointed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,655
    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    Neither have we.

    We have witnessed 150,000 die with Covid.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,925
    edited January 2022
    OT Andy Summers (The Police, a well-known beat combo) on Bitcoin and NFTs:-

    When people suspect you have money they come at you with some brand new business which is always dodgy. There have been so many over the years, especially during the ­dotcom boom. It was just “You’ve got some money in the bank. I’ve got a great idea.” Bitcoin and, what do they call them, non-fungible tokens? They all look so dodgy to me.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/fame-fortune/polices-andy-summers-made-1m-night-played-150-times/ (£££)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    I think yes is an ok bet given the odds offered. But what I cannot understand is why Wakeford defected to Labour. Most people who got in to politics and persevered to the point where they stood for election to parliament for the Conservatives would surely have a loathing for the labour party, be this either traditional labour with its dislike of enterprise and business, or 'woke' post 2015 Corbynite labour. This Wakeford defection is enormously confusing, he doesn't seem to have given particularly convincing reasons for what he has done. He will be a very lonely and distrusted figure in the labour party.

    I wonder if the next defection will be to 'an opposition party', as opposed to just resigning the whip and becoming an independent. What the 2019 red wall MPs could do, if they cannot oust Johnson, is just create an independent group against sleaze in politics, or something similar. They would have more credibility in Parliament than the last attempt at forming an Independent group.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Heathener said:

    Interesting summary by Wakeford in that piece:

    "Many of my former colleagues have already reached the conclusion that he’s unfit to lead the Conservative party. Not just because he’s an electoral liability but because he’s actually unfit to run the country."

    This is why, on balance, I still think he will be ousted. The electoral liability might be brushed off as mid-term blues and reference to Boris Johnson's stunning success in 2019 (neatly ignoring Corbyn) would be made.

    That's not the issue and it's not what started all of this.

    It's that Boris Johnson is not fit to be prime minister. He's terrible. He wanted to be world king but wasn't up to the job.

    Yes, that is correct. But it is not an unusual situation, he works as a leader for a political project with a clear purpose and direction, as existed with Brexit, and as existed for a time when Cummings was in No.10. It has subsequently become clear that, if he tries to fly solo (or a duo with his wife as co-pilot) then he is absolutely hopeless. The freefall over the last few weeks have been fascinating to watch, from a distance at least. It is clear what he needs to do, but he hasn't been able to do it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,475
    MarqueeMark said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    Neither have we.

    We have witnessed 150,000 die with Covid.
    Haven't we had about 150,000 more deaths (i.e. excess mortality) than one would normally expect?

    Not all will be directly related to Covid, of course. But that's the raw increase in deaths relative to what you would expect for the last two years.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,454
    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    NZ was able to nail their pre-vaccine policy due to their isolation from the rest of the world; that they then didn't make a timely transition to a "live with it" strategy was mistake.

    Read the comments on this article and despair:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/red-alert-new-zealand-prepares-for-thousands-of-omicron-cases-a-day-with-community-spread?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    The country has high levels of vaccination among adults: according to the Ministry of Health, 95% of those aged 12 and over have had at least one dose of the vaccine, and 93% have had both.

    I’m really not sure what they are worried about. Yes, some people are going to die from COVID, but their health system should be fine.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,349
    MarqueeMark said:

    Talk of more defections is aimed at putting more spine into those thinking of putting in letters to Sir Graham Brady....

    So that they will?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ClippP said:

    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?

    No.

    Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.

    The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.

    Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.

    If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.

    FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,454
    IshmaelZ said:

    One reason why Labour might have decided against a by-election in Bury South is if they are courting another MP with much lower chances of winning a fresh contest.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1484631877528993794

    I’d have thought the main reason for not holding a by-election is that there is nothing to gain. Labour should win it, but you can’t be sure and people don’t like turncoats. And it’s not like the press will hammer them for not holding one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,349
    edited January 2022
    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    One reason why Labour might have decided against a by-election in Bury South is if they are courting another MP with much lower chances of winning a fresh contest.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1484631877528993794

    I’d have thought the main reason for not holding a by-election is that there is nothing to gain. Labour should win it, but you can’t be sure and people don’t like turncoats. And it’s not like the press will hammer them for not holding one.
    And, however successful, it would be a disincentive to those that might follow, since few actively enjoy putting their job on the line.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited January 2022
    MarqueeMark said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    Neither have we.

    We have witnessed 150,000 die with Covid.

    Excess mortality has been sharply up.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/excessdeathsin20202021andintheeuropeanunion


    I have a friend who tried all the way through this pandemic to debunk it. First he told me it spread through the eyes. Then he denied masks work. Then he dissed vaccines. He went down this 'they only die with it' line and said it was a 'casedemic' not a pandemic.

    It has been quite sad to witness someone who was once middle of the road and quite sensible join the conspiracy loons. Please don't be one of them.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,210
    darkage said:

    I think yes is an ok bet given the odds offered. But what I cannot understand is why Wakeford defected to Labour. Most people who got in to politics and persevered to the point where they stood for election to parliament for the Conservatives would surely have a loathing for the labour party, be this either traditional labour with its dislike of enterprise and business, or 'woke' post 2015 Corbynite labour. This Wakeford defection is enormously confusing, he doesn't seem to have given particularly convincing reasons for what he has done. He will be a very lonely and distrusted figure in the labour party.

    I wonder if the next defection will be to 'an opposition party', as opposed to just resigning the whip and becoming an independent. What the 2019 red wall MPs could do, if they cannot oust Johnson, is just create an independent group against sleaze in politics, or something similar. They would have more credibility in Parliament than the last attempt at forming an Independent group.

    If they defect to Labour they stand a decent chance of keeping their seat. With any other party they don't. In less cynical terms if the reason they stood for election was to get things done for their constituents then they probably don't viscerally hate Labour. They probably hated the incompetence and chaos of the Corbynite Labour Party just as they are coming to hate the chaos and incompetence of the Johnsonite Tory Party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,743
    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?

    No.

    Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.

    The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.

    Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.

    If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.

    FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
    Note also the key line in the header.
    A significant number of red wall MPs also felt a greater loyalty to their constituents than to the Conservative Party itself.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,925
    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?

    No.

    Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.

    The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.

    Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.

    If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.

    FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
    Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,121
    edited January 2022
    Good morning one and all. What's happened to the early morning sunshine?

    On topic, I am at somewhat of a loss to understand how and why politicians such as Ghani and Wakeford are making claims which can easily be denied if there is not some modicum of truth behind them. I suspect that parliamentary whips have always used whatever means at hand to persuade MP's to follow the party line, and I would not be surprised if progress with some constituency development didn't sometimes get included in those means.

    Politically, is it worse for the PM if another MP defects or if it becomes apparent that Sir Graham Brady now has 50 letters?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,349
    Cummo’s bullet surely relates to the lockdown party rumoured to have taken place actually inside Johnson’s no 10 flat…
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,170
    IanB2 said:

    Cummo’s bullet surely relates to the lockdown party rumoured to have taken place actually inside Johnson’s no 10 flat…

    Does he not live in no.11?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,170
    Gallowgate said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cummo’s bullet surely relates to the lockdown party rumoured to have taken place actually inside Johnson’s no 10 flat…

    Does he not live in no.11?
    Cummings didn't know there was a difference between Islington and Durham when it came to lockdown, do you really think he's going to be able to distinguish between flats in adjacent buildings?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,170
    OldKingCole said:

    Good morning one and all. What's happened to the early morning sunshine?

    On topic, I am at somewhat of a loss to understand how and why politicians such as Ghani and Wakeford are making claims which can easily be denied if there is not some modicum of truth behind them. I suspect that parliamentary whips have always used whatever means at hand to persuade MP's to follow the party line, and I would not be surprised if progress with some constituency development didn't sometimes get included in those means.

    Politically, is it worse for the PM if another MP defects or if it becomes apparent that Sir Graham Brady now has 50 letters?

    An MP defecting might lead to the 54 letters, but on its own wouldn't topple him. A VONC almost certainly would. So it's the latter.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    tlg86 said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    NZ was able to nail their pre-vaccine policy due to their isolation from the rest of the world; that they then didn't make a timely transition to a "live with it" strategy was mistake.

    Read the comments on this article and despair:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/red-alert-new-zealand-prepares-for-thousands-of-omicron-cases-a-day-with-community-spread?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    The country has high levels of vaccination among adults: according to the Ministry of Health, 95% of those aged 12 and over have had at least one dose of the vaccine, and 93% have had both.

    I’m really not sure what they are worried about. Yes, some people are going to die from COVID, but their health system should be fine.
    Even if the hospitals can cope, it's still a big psychological hurdle to get over. That particular society has been fighting tooth and nail for the best part of two years to crush the disease and keep it out altogether; going from zero Covid to just letting it rip (even with some controls in place) is swinging from one extreme to the other.

    Besides which, this necessarily entails switching from a situation in which almost nobody dies of Covid to that in which we know some people must die of Covid. The previously heavily protected elderly and clinically vulnerable populations in New Zealand are all now being entered into a lottery, in which the prize for holding a winning ticket is death. This is obviously no small thing! Whilst much of the developed world is gradually clawing its way out of the horror and approaching the learning to live with it stage, this will be (at least for a large fraction of the population) the most frightening phase of the whole pandemic in New Zealand. It's small wonder if they're worried.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,117
    tlg86 said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    NZ was able to nail their pre-vaccine policy due to their isolation from the rest of the world; that they then didn't make a timely transition to a "live with it" strategy was mistake.

    Read the comments on this article and despair:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/red-alert-new-zealand-prepares-for-thousands-of-omicron-cases-a-day-with-community-spread?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    The country has high levels of vaccination among adults: according to the Ministry of Health, 95% of those aged 12 and over have had at least one dose of the vaccine, and 93% have had both.

    I’m really not sure what they are worried about. Yes, some people are going to die from COVID, but their health system should be fine.
    They currently have 52 deaths attributed to Covid-19. They're not psychologically prepared to see that rise into three figures and head towards four.

    This is a failure of leadership.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Thread:

    Whilst SW1 obsesses and reels from scandal this has been a decisive week for post-Brexit Britain -- its actions to support Ukraine militarily and now in intelligence terms are making it loud and clear there is no European "strategic autonomy" without the UK.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1485035477363306500?s=20
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Ex-Naval Chief

    German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"

    https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1484642943499649026?s=20
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?

    No.

    Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.

    The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.

    Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.

    If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.

    FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
    Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
    In PR systems every party is a minority party. Therefore even the largest parties have to be constructive and professional in order to negotiate with other parliamentarians. Bullying simply doesn’t work. That’s where FPTP comes in: it is a bully’s dream.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?

    No.

    Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.

    The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.

    Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.

    If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.

    FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
    Note also the key line in the header.
    A significant number of red wall MPs also felt a greater loyalty to their constituents than to the Conservative Party itself.
    Theoretically, that’s how parliaments were intended to work when invented in the Middle Ages/Early Modern period. Most jurisdictions have abandoned that model, but England wades on into the mire.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,693
    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?

    No.

    Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.

    The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.

    Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.

    If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.

    FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
    Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
    Under FPTP the wrong individuals get elected, because the electorate cannot discriminate among candidates of the same party.

    This then gives very considerable power to the whips and the party machine.
    Exactly. Under FPTP there is a strong incentive to weed out strong, upstanding characters early on in the selection process.

    I quite like the STV system in Scottish local elections. If the SNP put up 3 candidates then electors are at liberty to rank them 1, 2 or 3; or mix n match with other prospective folk like the Green candidate. Not fault free, but a heck of a lot better than FPTP where you are occasionally forced to vote for a total plonker.
    Or the List element of the fiddled d'Hondt system at Holyrood.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,743
    Russia now has a third if its entire ground forces on the Ukraine border.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/russian-ships-tanks-and-troops-on-the-move-to-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?

    No.

    Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.

    The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.

    Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.

    If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.

    FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
    Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
    Under FPTP the wrong individuals get elected, because the electorate cannot discriminate among candidates of the same party.

    This then gives very considerable power to the whips and the party machine.
    Exactly. Under FPTP there is a strong incentive to weed out strong, upstanding characters early on in the selection process.

    I quite like the STV system in Scottish local elections. If the SNP put up 3 candidates then electors are at liberty to rank them 1, 2 or 3; or mix n match with other prospective folk like the Green candidate. Not fault free, but a heck of a lot better than FPTP where you are occasionally forced to vote for a total plonker.
    Or the List element of the fiddled d'Hondt system at Holyrood.
    That’s a rubbish system. A hybrid. Typical Lib-Lab bùrach. Donald Dewar, Jim Wallace et al were always at it. Thinking they were clever when in fact they were blithering idiots.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,961
    MarqueeMark said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    Neither have we.

    We have witnessed 150,000 die with Covid.
    I am sure had Labour been the Party of Government you would happily accept the 150,000 fatalities figure. In fact I am sure you would prefer to use the "other" official figure of circa 173,000.deaths.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,377
    Heathener said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    Neither have we.

    We have witnessed 150,000 die with Covid.

    Excess mortality has been sharply up.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/excessdeathsin20202021andintheeuropeanunion


    I have a friend who tried all the way through this pandemic to debunk it. First he told me it spread through the eyes. Then he denied masks work. Then he dissed vaccines. He went down this 'they only die with it' line and said it was a 'casedemic' not a pandemic.

    It has been quite sad to witness someone who was once middle of the road and quite sensible join the conspiracy loons. Please don't be one of them.
    It is incorrect to say covid killed 10x fewer than officially recorded, the excess death stats are the telling blow in that debate.

    But equally, it’s highly pertinent info that it killed so few without a pre existing condition and does suggest that the risk segmentation approach to NPI proposed by many was dismissed too readily. Certainly it is completely counter to the psyops style campaign of fear waged on otherwise healthy people for the last two years.

    There were some big errors around the behavioural management side. Talking down the prospects for the vaccine programme when anyone even once or twice removed from it knew it was going to be successful by at least a reasonable metric by summer 2020.

    But also the messaging around the true risk for most people. If you mislead around that, truly vulnerable people can’t properly calibrate their understanding of the risk. Finally the legal compulsion around the extraordinary level of authoritarian restrictions undoubtedly fed the antivax movement as a direct counter to state intrusion into the lives of free people.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    StuartDickson said:

    Carnyx said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?

    No.

    Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.

    The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.

    Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.

    If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.

    FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
    Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
    Under FPTP the wrong individuals get elected, because the electorate cannot discriminate among candidates of the same party.

    This then gives very considerable power to the whips and the party machine.
    Exactly. Under FPTP there is a strong incentive to weed out strong, upstanding characters early on in the selection process.

    I quite like the STV system in Scottish local elections. If the SNP put up 3 candidates then electors are at liberty to rank them 1, 2 or 3; or mix n match with other prospective folk like the Green candidate. Not fault free, but a heck of a lot better than FPTP where you are occasionally forced to vote for a total plonker.
    Or the List element of the fiddled d'Hondt system at Holyrood.
    That’s a rubbish system. A hybrid. Typical Lib-Lab bùrach. Donald Dewar, Jim Wallace et al were always at it. Thinking they were clever when in fact they were blithering idiots.
    They may not have thought about what the most optimal system was at all.

    Insofar as I can see, Labour's entire motivation for introducing PR for the devolved assemblies was to ensure an endless succession of administrations run by it, on the basis that Labour was too strong to be supplanted by anyone else as the dominant pro-UK party, and there would never be anywhere close to a majority of votes cast for secessionist candidates.

    It worked a treat in Wales. In the Scottish Parliament, not so much.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,567
    Nigelb said:

    Russia now has a third if its entire ground forces on the Ukraine border.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/russian-ships-tanks-and-troops-on-the-move-to-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall

    https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1485118853805916164?s=21
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,438
    LostPassword said:

    tlg86 said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    NZ was able to nail their pre-vaccine policy due to their isolation from the rest of the world; that they then didn't make a timely transition to a "live with it" strategy was mistake.

    Read the comments on this article and despair:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/red-alert-new-zealand-prepares-for-thousands-of-omicron-cases-a-day-with-community-spread?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    The country has high levels of vaccination among adults: according to the Ministry of Health, 95% of those aged 12 and over have had at least one dose of the vaccine, and 93% have had both.

    I’m really not sure what they are worried about. Yes, some people are going to die from COVID, but their health system should be fine.
    They currently have 52 deaths attributed to Covid-19. They're not psychologically prepared to see that rise into three figures and head towards four.

    This is a failure of leadership.
    Says you. They say the exact same thing about us. Who is right...?

    Different countries, different societies, different priorities. Somewhat arrogant to say another nation's different priorities are a "failure of leadership"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,349
    edited January 2022
    The Sunday Rawnsley:

    There are easily more than 54 Conservative MPs who think their leader is a busted flush, who appreciate the risk his attempts to hang on to the premiership will inflict lasting reputational damage on their party and who understand that Britain won’t return to anything resembling seemly and orderly government until he is gone. One senior Tory ended a conversation with me by quoting François Rabelais: “Bring down the curtain, the farce is over.”

    More are agitated about what leaving Mr Johnson in place means for their electoral prospects. All can read the opinion polls.

    Things would be much easier for Tories if their leader...walked away. That would spare everyone the spectacle of ministers tortuously trying to defend the indefensible. Mr Johnson’s friends have often heard him whingeing that he can’t live on the salary while moaning that being prime minister is not as much fun as he thought it would be. It never seems to have occurred to him that making money and having a laugh are not the top lines of the job description.

    His remaining allies are busy briefing friendly journalists that he will fight to stay in Number 10 to the bitter end. They would say that, of course. Another sign of Mr Johnson’s desperation is “Operation Save Big Dog”, the puerile appellation apparently invented by himself to describe the effort to buy him more time.

    The longer Tory MPs prevaricate, the more they become complicit in this scandal and the less the public will trust the lot of them.

    Even before Ms Gray had completed her interviews, the prime minister’s propagandists were putting it about that her report would exonerate him from the most damning charges. That’s a dangerous game for Number 10 to be playing, not least because Ms Gray will have a strong regard for her own credibility. Someone who knows her well remarks: “She will be very pissed off by that.” Her findings, and the degree of severity with which she chooses to word them, can tip the scales for or against the prime minister with Tory MPs, but ultimately they will have to make the decision. Those who want rid of Boris Johnson will have to be as resolute about evicting him as he is frantic to cling on.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,693
    edited January 2022
    pigeon said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Carnyx said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ClippP said:

    TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.

    A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?

    No.

    Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.

    The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.

    Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.

    If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.

    FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
    Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
    Under FPTP the wrong individuals get elected, because the electorate cannot discriminate among candidates of the same party.

    This then gives very considerable power to the whips and the party machine.
    Exactly. Under FPTP there is a strong incentive to weed out strong, upstanding characters early on in the selection process.

    I quite like the STV system in Scottish local elections. If the SNP put up 3 candidates then electors are at liberty to rank them 1, 2 or 3; or mix n match with other prospective folk like the Green candidate. Not fault free, but a heck of a lot better than FPTP where you are occasionally forced to vote for a total plonker.
    Or the List element of the fiddled d'Hondt system at Holyrood.
    That’s a rubbish system. A hybrid. Typical Lib-Lab bùrach. Donald Dewar, Jim Wallace et al were always at it. Thinking they were clever when in fact they were blithering idiots.
    They may not have thought about what the most optimal system was at all.

    Insofar as I can see, Labour's entire motivation for introducing PR for the devolved assemblies was to ensure an endless succession of administrations run by it, on the basis that Labour was too strong to be supplanted by anyone else as the dominant pro-UK party, and there would never be anywhere close to a majority of votes cast for secessionist candidates.

    It worked a treat in Wales. In the Scottish Parliament, not so much.
    Messrs Dewar, Wallace et al did think about it - in that the better one did in the voting the worse the further results were in terms of seats in the debating chamber for each marginal increase of the vote. Majorities were supposed to be impossible in any practical sense. A sort of reverse FPTP in that respect, a deliberate anti-SNP measure. The idea was that there would be perpetual SLAB-SLD coalitions forever, till the heat death of the universe.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    RochdalePioneers said:

    LostPassword said:

    tlg86 said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    NZ was able to nail their pre-vaccine policy due to their isolation from the rest of the world; that they then didn't make a timely transition to a "live with it" strategy was mistake.

    Read the comments on this article and despair:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/red-alert-new-zealand-prepares-for-thousands-of-omicron-cases-a-day-with-community-spread?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    The country has high levels of vaccination among adults: according to the Ministry of Health, 95% of those aged 12 and over have had at least one dose of the vaccine, and 93% have had both.

    I’m really not sure what they are worried about. Yes, some people are going to die from COVID, but their health system should be fine.
    They currently have 52 deaths attributed to Covid-19. They're not psychologically prepared to see that rise into three figures and head towards four.

    This is a failure of leadership.
    Says you. They say the exact same thing about us. Who is right...?

    Different countries, different societies, different priorities. Somewhat arrogant to say another nation's different priorities are a "failure of leadership"
    New Zealand of course would be a lot better off if they had never become independent. Even a fool can see that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,984
    Nigelb said:

    Russia now has a third if its entire ground forces on the Ukraine border.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/russian-ships-tanks-and-troops-on-the-move-to-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall

    Feels like a opportunity for China.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,925
    Anyone know when the next GE poll is due? We really need one before Gray reports.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,094
    Dominic Raab says that in the absence of a formal complaint there will be no specific investigation into Nus Ghani’s claims @RidgeOnSunday
    https://twitter.com/ridgeonsunday/status/1485173608481705985
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,555
    CarlottaVance said:

    If I were an organisation called “Stop The War” then I would simply appeal to the country that wants to start a war to stop wanting to start a war.

    https://twitter.com/BDStanley/status/1484977489986428950?s=20

    Because they don’t want to stop the war, they just want the West to lose the war.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,862
    Scott_xP said:

    Dominic Raab says that in the absence of a formal complaint there will be no specific investigation into Nus Ghani’s claims @RidgeOnSunday
    https://twitter.com/ridgeonsunday/status/1485173608481705985

    Spread on hours before u-turn? 28-32?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    ZeroCoviddammerung;

    I don’t understand NZ’s strategy anymore. Vaccination rates are high, it’s summer and these restrictions won’t be enough to stamp Omicron out, so what’s the point of them?

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1485170523344670722?s=20
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,484
    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    You completely missed my point in my (full) post.

    I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.

    They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
    I would challenge the "massive failure of policy" remark. I am guessing New Zealand has seen fewer cancelled weddings overall as well as avoiding a horrible death toll, which is the key point.

    In the short to medium term we are all moving to a situation where Covid needs to be managed but essentially is just one public health issue amongst many, and is a second order problem to a full pandemic. We will all do OK on that, I think.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,862
    ydoethur said:

    Gallowgate said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cummo’s bullet surely relates to the lockdown party rumoured to have taken place actually inside Johnson’s no 10 flat…

    Does he not live in no.11?
    Cummings didn't know there was a difference between Islington and Durham when it came to lockdown, do you really think he's going to be able to distinguish between flats in adjacent buildings?
    It depends really. Had he tested his eyesight the day before or not?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,862
    OldKingCole said:

    I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.

    And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.

    A junior spad in number 10 has just asked if that plan works, will we get a party to celebrate?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,655
    Heathener said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    Neither have we.

    We have witnessed 150,000 die with Covid.

    Excess mortality has been sharply up.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/excessdeathsin20202021andintheeuropeanunion


    I have a friend who tried all the way through this pandemic to debunk it. First he told me it spread through the eyes. Then he denied masks work. Then he dissed vaccines. He went down this 'they only die with it' line and said it was a 'casedemic' not a pandemic.

    It has been quite sad to witness someone who was once middle of the road and quite sensible join the conspiracy loons. Please don't be one of them.
    With Covid and Of Covid are very valid distinctions to make.

    Watch Dr John Campbell on the deaths of those in England and Wales with no other underlying causes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UHvwWWcjYw

    A Freedom of Information request reveals for 2020 and first three quarter of 2021: 17,371 deaths with Covid alone on the death certificate.

    Covid was present/hastened the deaths of those with comorbidities.

    Average age of death from/with Covid was higher than the average life expectancy.

    How the fuck does this data make me join the "conspiracy loons"? Spoiler: it doesn't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Interesting FT report on urban density, public transport and productivity:

    https://www.ft.com/content/a45e028d-4b81-4bef-9546-970838ab963a
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,094
    When BoZo said "let the bodies pile high" he meant SPADs and Civil Servants...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,484
    The significant thing about the Wakefield defection in my view is that it shows Labour is now a party that people might want to defect to. It is many years since that has been the case.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,121
    noneoftheabove said:

    OldKingCole said:

    I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.

    And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.

    A junior spad in number 10 has just asked if that plan works, will we get a party to celebrate?
    Why not; if sufficiently junior, should be OK!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,735
    edited January 2022
    Any redwall Tory MP who is in the top 50 Labour target seats would certainly be a possible defector as on current polling their seat would likely go back to Labour even if Sunak replaced Boris as PM.

    That is unless that Tory MP was a diehard hard Brexiteer, social conservative or economic Thatcherite and could never ideologically fit in Labour even if standing for Labour next time was the best way to keep their seat
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Double Down News
    @DoubleDownNews
    "You know those documentaries you've seen about a dictator's rise to power & there's always a bit in the doc where you think 'why didn’t they stop him? They could have stopped him when there was still time?' That’s the bit we're at."

    -
    @GeorgeMonbiot

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DoubleDownNews/status/1483392113354194945
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    CarlottaVance said:

    ZeroCoviddammerung;

    I don’t understand NZ’s strategy anymore. Vaccination rates are high, it’s summer and these restrictions won’t be enough to stamp Omicron out, so what’s the point of them?

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1485170523344670722?s=20

    Politician's logic, as per plan B here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,735
    CarlottaVance said:

    Ex-Naval Chief

    German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"

    https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1484642943499649026?s=20

    Putin is not an atheist, he is Russian Orthodox
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,805
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia now has a third if its entire ground forces on the Ukraine border.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/russian-ships-tanks-and-troops-on-the-move-to-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall

    Feels like a opportunity for China.
    And Japan, we're still technically kind of at war with the Russians. Sneak in there while they're not looking and grab the Kuril Islands back.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    StuartDickson said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    One reason why Labour might have decided against a by-election in Bury South is if they are courting another MP with much lower chances of winning a fresh contest.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1484631877528993794

    PB was better with Antifrank about.
    We also had a very good good poster called Frank. Is it true that Frank and Antifrank perished when they attempted to post simultaneously?
    Of course Frank was totally manic about leaving the EU....completely lost it many, many times... :smiley:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,596
    New Zealand:

    "The entire country is set to be placed under the highest level of Covid restrictions after an outbreak of the Omicron variant."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-60100369
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,805
    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    You completely missed my point in my (full) post.

    I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.

    They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
    I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.

    Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,113
    FF43 said:

    The significant thing about the Wakefield defection in my view is that it shows Labour is now a party that people might want to defect to. It is many years since that has been the case.

    If his plan was to carry on representing Bury South as an MP for his new party, the alternatives would never have been very realistic. Labour was the only other party that polled more than 5% at the last election.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Chinese state media rooting for a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine. Autocracy Inc, in practice.

    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1485176805870944259?s=20
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edmundintokyo said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    You completely missed my point in my (full) post.

    I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.

    They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
    I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.

    Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
    As ever the question (frequently unanswered) is “what do you do with that month”? In Japan’s case “waiting for milder weather” is one thing that might help. In New Zealand it’s the reverse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,735
    CarlottaVance said:

    Chinese state media rooting for a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine. Autocracy Inc, in practice.

    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1485176805870944259?s=20

    Of course, as they would then invade Taiwan too if Russia's invasion of Ukraine was successful
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,961
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Double Down News
    @DoubleDownNews
    "You know those documentaries you've seen about a dictator's rise to power & there's always a bit in the doc where you think 'why didn’t they stop him? They could have stopped him when there was still time?' That’s the bit we're at."

    -
    @GeorgeMonbiot

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DoubleDownNews/status/1483392113354194945

    ...and Johnson likes wearing uniforms.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,333
    On topic: Here is my way out prediction on the defection front, and I have absolutely no intelligence to back this up, but my prediction is Caroline Noakes to the LDs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,950
    CarlottaVance said:

    Chinese state media rooting for a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine. Autocracy Inc, in practice.

    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1485176805870944259?s=20

    Her article "the bad guys are winning" was a masterful piece of journalism and a real wake up call for the west that seems to have been totally ignored in Germany in particular.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,689
    edited January 2022
    Speaking of those on the path to dictatorship

    A Turkish court has detained well-known journalist Sedef Kabas for allegedly insulting the country's president.

    Ms Kabas was arrested on Saturday in Istanbul and a court ordered her to be jailed ahead of a trial.

    She is accused of targeting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a proverb which she quoted on live television on an opposition-linked TV channel. She denies the charge...

    Thousands of people have been charged with insulting Mr Erdogan since he became president.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60099931

    I guess having moved past the military coup phase they are in a spot of bother still.

    I wonder if leaders recognise imposing lese majesty as a dictatorial move or if they are in denial?

    God forbid people get targeted with proverbs. Scary.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,484
    Chris said:

    FF43 said:

    The significant thing about the Wakefield defection in my view is that it shows Labour is now a party that people might want to defect to. It is many years since that has been the case.

    If his plan was to carry on representing Bury South as an MP for his new party, the alternatives would never have been very realistic. Labour was the only other party that polled more than 5% at the last election.
    The defector may be a rat but rats have a good feel for which ships are sinking. Right now that's the Tory ship, while the Labour ship appears to be relatively more seaworthy.

    This is becoming a problem for the Conservative Party as a whole. Just swapping out a dishonest and incompetent leader may not be enough.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,805
    edited January 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    You completely missed my point in my (full) post.

    I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.

    They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
    I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.

    Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
    As ever the question (frequently unanswered) is “what do you do with that month”? In Japan’s case “waiting for milder weather” is one thing that might help. In New Zealand it’s the reverse.
    This is a variant that was unknown to medical science until literally two months ago, so finding out more about what kind of damage it does, how it spreads and how to treat it is something you can do with that month.

    Also vaccinate/boost, prepare hospital beds, work out what you're going to do about lots of medical staff going off sick, how you're going to run schools if lots of teachers go off sick, etc etc.

    And that's all assuming containment doesn't work, it may also turn out that containment works if you do it right. I doubt it, but you never know.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,816
    Mexicanpete said:



    ...and Johnson likes wearing uniforms.

    He's already LARPed as a cop, builder and various other things so I think he has it in him to go full caudillo.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Double Down News
    @DoubleDownNews
    "You know those documentaries you've seen about a dictator's rise to power & there's always a bit in the doc where you think 'why didn’t they stop him? They could have stopped him when there was still time?' That’s the bit we're at."

    -
    @GeorgeMonbiot

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DoubleDownNews/status/1483392113354194945

    Christ - before I opened that link I presumed it was about Putin - sort of like a real Dictator. Boris not so much…..
    Yes, on reflection too silly to spend much time on. No one has climbed a lamppost to wave a flag at a Boris rally - that was last May, and not something we are likely to see again

    Feeling comfortable with my gone in Q1 position this morning. Who would have thought partygate would expose racist bullying in such short order? I always thought Lord thing did nobody any favours inventing the term Institutionally racist to describe the Met, really just meaning there is a lot of it about. But if a government disciplines its own members vias racism, that's institutional all right.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,961
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mexicanpete said:



    ...and Johnson likes wearing uniforms.

    He's already LARPed as a cop, builder and various other things so I think he has it in him to go full caudillo.
    Either that, or he's auditioning for the Village People, post Gray.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    CarlottaVance said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    You completely missed my point in my (full) post.

    I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.

    They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
    I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.

    Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
    As ever the question (frequently unanswered) is “what do you do with that month”? In Japan’s case “waiting for milder weather” is one thing that might help. In New Zealand it’s the reverse.
    To be fair, there's been much clucking by NZ scientists along the lines of "we need to get the boosters done, and get jabs into the primary school kiddies."

    I'm not sure how much good vaccinating young children would do; they may have a better point with the boosters. However, if it were feasible to keep stamping on Omicron indefinitely, there would always be another excuse for delaying opening up.

    Fortunately for those New Zealanders who don't want their country turned into a hermit kingdom indefinitely - and especially for the poor sods stuck abroad who still can't get home - it would appear that their government has finally concluded that Omicron is unstoppable. Hence the fact that the red level restrictions they've brought in over there do not equate to yet more lockdown, but are really just for show.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,027
    kjh said:

    On topic: Here is my way out prediction on the defection front, and I have absolutely no intelligence to back this up, but my prediction is Caroline Noakes to the LDs.

    Certainly looks a seat that might be in a Yellow Wall.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,770
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mexicanpete said:



    ...and Johnson likes wearing uniforms.

    He's already LARPed as a cop, builder and various other things so I think he has it in him to go full caudillo.
    Either that, or his next costume will be a Native American Chief.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,925
    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Ex-Naval Chief

    German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"

    https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1484642943499649026?s=20

    Putin is not an atheist, he is Russian Orthodox
    Yes, an orthodox Russian thug.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2022
    edmundintokyo said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    You completely missed my point in my (full) post.

    I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.

    They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
    I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.

    Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
    Has the U.K. taken enormous damage from its omicron approach? (arguably even delta). In what sense? We’ve been recording enormous case numbers for months but case numbers alone aren’t evidence of damage. Excess death figures (as one measure of impact) have really been doing much since the winter 2021 wave, and appear to be as much explicable by medium term impacts of the earlier lockdowns etc (is. Other causes of death).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,950
    edmundintokyo said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.

    On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
    You completely missed my point in my (full) post.

    I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.

    They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
    I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.

    Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
    As ever the question (frequently unanswered) is “what do you do with that month”? In Japan’s case “waiting for milder weather” is one thing that might help. In New Zealand it’s the reverse.
    This is a variant that was unknown to medical science until literally two months ago, so finding out more about what kind of damage it does, how it spreads and how to treat it is something you can do with that month.

    Also vaccinate/boost, prepare hospital beds, work out what you're going to do about lots of medical staff going off sick, how you're going to run schools if lots of teachers go off sick, etc etc.

    And that's all assuming containment doesn't work, it may also turn out that containment works if you do it right. I doubt it, but you never know.
    New Zealand had massive advantages unshared by anyone else, being 1k miles from anywhere and a lot further from anywhere you would want to go, but they have potentially maximised those advantages by getting very high levels of vaccination whilst in isolation reducing their ultimate death toll to the minimum. Well done them, but I still don't understand their current policy. What do they have to fear now?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,027
    pigeon said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    ZeroCoviddammerung;

    I don’t understand NZ’s strategy anymore. Vaccination rates are high, it’s summer and these restrictions won’t be enough to stamp Omicron out, so what’s the point of them?

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1485170523344670722?s=20

    Politician's logic, as per plan B here.
    Interesting discussion there in the thread comments about NZ's ICU capacity. Really low for some reason.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,207
    kjh said:

    On topic: Here is my way out prediction on the defection front, and I have absolutely no intelligence to back this up, but my prediction is Caroline Noakes to the LDs.

    That's a really good shout (though Nokes, not Noakes). She's really fed up with BJ and his mates, and the macho culture of the current government.
This discussion has been closed.

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