Her article "the bad guys are winning" was a masterful piece of journalism and a real wake up call for the west that seems to have been totally ignored in Germany in particular.
The tories have done far, far more to advance Putin's strategic agenda with Brexit than the Germans have with their lack of enthusiasm for picking a side in the imminent war between Russia and Ukraine.
On topic: Here is my way out prediction on the defection front, and I have absolutely no intelligence to back this up, but my prediction is Caroline Noakes to the LDs.
Certainly looks a seat that might be in a Yellow Wall.
Surely if they building something with LDs it should a yellow brick road rather than wall?
On topic: Here is my way out prediction on the defection front, and I have absolutely no intelligence to back this up, but my prediction is Caroline Noakes to the LDs.
Certainly looks a seat that might be in a Yellow Wall.
It was LD, or at least was before boundary changes. Sandra Gidley, acquaintance of mine held it. Later President of the Royal Pharmaceutical Society. Had expenses problems over her flat, IIRC.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
You completely missed my point in my (full) post.
I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.
They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.
Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
As ever the question (frequently unanswered) is “what do you do with that month”? In Japan’s case “waiting for milder weather” is one thing that might help. In New Zealand it’s the reverse.
To be fair, there's been much clucking by NZ scientists along the lines of "we need to get the boosters done, and get jabs into the primary school kiddies."
I'm not sure how much good vaccinating young children would do; they may have a better point with the boosters. However, if it were feasible to keep stamping on Omicron indefinitely, there would always be another excuse for delaying opening up.
Fortunately for those New Zealanders who don't want their country turned into a hermit kingdom indefinitely - and especially for the poor sods stuck abroad who still can't get home - it would appear that their government has finally concluded that Omicron is unstoppable. Hence the fact that the red level restrictions they've brought in over there do not equate to yet more lockdown, but are really just for show.
24 days isolation for contacts seems quite harsh tbf.
Her article "the bad guys are winning" was a masterful piece of journalism and a real wake up call for the west that seems to have been totally ignored in Germany in particular.
The tories have done far, far more to advance Putin's strategic agenda with Brexit than the Germans have with their lack of enthusiasm for picking a side in the imminent war between Russia and Ukraine.
The past is important but surely not as much as the present? We are where we are and 'but...but Brexit' may well be true yet still a deflection about what, if anything, should be done 'now' by various sides.
As it is we are probably virtue signalling, and dont have much impact, butvoeopke can also vice signal.
On topic: Here is my way out prediction on the defection front, and I have absolutely no intelligence to back this up, but my prediction is Caroline Noakes to the LDs.
That's a really good shout (though Nokes, not Noakes). She's really fed up with BJ and his mates, and the macho culture of the current government.
Her seat (Romsey and Southampton North) is also a rarity: somewhere that the LD vote held up credibly in 2015 (the yellows retained second place there when they were losing deposits in most of the country.) They've since consolidated their position as clear challengers. The Tory majority there is still about ten thousand, but tactical support from Labour voters could make the LDs competitive there next time.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
You completely missed my point in my (full) post.
I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.
They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
Not every country is lucky enough to be led by an amoral narcissist who lurches into decisions depending on who he last spoke to, yields to pressure from factions within his own party and every so often lucks out, though with bodies piled high along the way.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
You completely missed my point in my (full) post.
I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.
They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.
Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
As ever the question (frequently unanswered) is “what do you do with that month”? In Japan’s case “waiting for milder weather” is one thing that might help. In New Zealand it’s the reverse.
This is a variant that was unknown to medical science until literally two months ago, so finding out more about what kind of damage it does, how it spreads and how to treat it is something you can do with that month.
Also vaccinate/boost, prepare hospital beds, work out what you're going to do about lots of medical staff going off sick, how you're going to run schools if lots of teachers go off sick, etc etc.
And that's all assuming containment doesn't work, it may also turn out that containment works if you do it right. I doubt it, but you never know.
New Zealand had massive advantages unshared by anyone else, being 1k miles from anywhere and a lot further from anywhere you would want to go, but they have potentially maximised those advantages by getting very high levels of vaccination whilst in isolation reducing their ultimate death toll to the minimum. Well done them, but I still don't understand their current policy. What do they have to fear now?
The argument that you have restrictions until the peak has passed also doesn’t make much sense. You can never presume the peak has passed whilst restrictions are in place. Unless so many people have had it that sheer numbers indicate this to be the case.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
On topic: Here is my way out prediction on the defection front, and I have absolutely no intelligence to back this up, but my prediction is Caroline Noakes to the LDs.
Well she is MP for Romsey and Romsey was LD held from the 2000 by election until 2010 and it is the 32nd LD target seat and she was a Remainer. So not a bad prediction
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
You completely missed my point in my (full) post.
I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.
They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.
Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
As ever the question (frequently unanswered) is “what do you do with that month”? In Japan’s case “waiting for milder weather” is one thing that might help. In New Zealand it’s the reverse.
To be fair, there's been much clucking by NZ scientists along the lines of "we need to get the boosters done, and get jabs into the primary school kiddies."
I'm not sure how much good vaccinating young children would do; they may have a better point with the boosters. However, if it were feasible to keep stamping on Omicron indefinitely, there would always be another excuse for delaying opening up.
Fortunately for those New Zealanders who don't want their country turned into a hermit kingdom indefinitely - and especially for the poor sods stuck abroad who still can't get home - it would appear that their government has finally concluded that Omicron is unstoppable. Hence the fact that the red level restrictions they've brought in over there do not equate to yet more lockdown, but are really just for show.
24 days isolation for contacts seems quite harsh tbf.
As I said last night please do not give Drakeford ideas
Applebaum is spinning wildly there. I've been educated on PB to understand the case for weapons to Ukraine better, but it's not disreputable for someone to argue the other way. I very much doubt if China will express an opinion either way.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
You completely missed my point in my (full) post.
I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.
They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.
Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
As ever the question (frequently unanswered) is “what do you do with that month”? In Japan’s case “waiting for milder weather” is one thing that might help. In New Zealand it’s the reverse.
To be fair, there's been much clucking by NZ scientists along the lines of "we need to get the boosters done, and get jabs into the primary school kiddies."
I'm not sure how much good vaccinating young children would do; they may have a better point with the boosters. However, if it were feasible to keep stamping on Omicron indefinitely, there would always be another excuse for delaying opening up.
Fortunately for those New Zealanders who don't want their country turned into a hermit kingdom indefinitely - and especially for the poor sods stuck abroad who still can't get home - it would appear that their government has finally concluded that Omicron is unstoppable. Hence the fact that the red level restrictions they've brought in over there do not equate to yet more lockdown, but are really just for show.
24 days isolation for contacts seems quite harsh tbf.
And is surely unsustainable for a functioning society (even if they say the rules on this will change as numbers grow). The main problem with “isolation for contacts” is that people can end up having to do so multiple times. Restricting isolation to people testing positive at least means that pressures on workforce’s etc should be short-term, and prevents them shutting down every time one person gets it.
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Johnson's incompetent, utterly selfish, cares nothing for his country, and is currently as popular as the prospect of a handjob from Edward Scissorhands.
If the PCP chains itself to a deadweight then it will drown, and rightly so.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
I wonder if the consideration for some is the looming cost of living crisis. Let Johnson take the unpopularity hit for the NI rise/ energy cost increase double whammy, and then replace him in good time for GE 24.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Even so, it is best to do it and find out. Uncertainity is usually the worst situation to have.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
The problem can only be that they’re not confident that he will lose a VoNC. This is what is completely different (and flawed) about the current Tory party rules. Compare with eg. the process when Thatcher was leader. You could have regular challenges - stalking horses etc to gauge support and big guns only entering contests when clear that the support for the leader was crumbling. And the leader being a candidate in the election meant that there was less fear of who might win a subsequent contest and them being worse.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
The Let's have an inquiry card is effective in the short term, because what is the correct counter? an inquiry might yield some facts - I mean, it's unlikely, but it's more likely than a spokesperson voluntarily coming clean at a presser - and the time limit initially looked tight. It is just now we are in it that it seems interminable. Aaron Bell, and G Cox in correspondence with constituents, are saying We are gonna wait for the outcome in terms which suggest swift moves thereafter.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
I wonder if the consideration for some is the looming cost of living crisis. Let Johnson take the unpopularity hit for the NI rise/ energy cost increase double whammy, and then replace him in good time for GE 24.
Report this morning that the NI rise was on Boris insistence and Rishi is telling conservative mps he is opposed to it
Applebaum is spinning wildly there. I've been educated on PB to understand the case for weapons to Ukraine better, but it's not disreputable for someone to argue the other way. I very much doubt if China will express an opinion either way.
I think it is reasonable to not give the CCP and its mouthpieces benefit of the doubt when it comes to reputableness. Gods forbid people are glass half full when it comes to dictatorial regimes' motivations.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Indeed, if there was a VONC next week which is likely after the Gray report is published, I think Boris would still win it about 55% to 45%. He would then be safe until the local elections at least
Her article "the bad guys are winning" was a masterful piece of journalism and a real wake up call for the west that seems to have been totally ignored in Germany in particular.
The tories have done far, far more to advance Putin's strategic agenda with Brexit than the Germans have with their lack of enthusiasm for picking a side in the imminent war between Russia and Ukraine.
The past is important but surely not as much as the present? We are where we are and 'but...but Brexit' may well be true yet still a deflection about what, if anything, should be done 'now' by various sides.
As it is we are probably virtue signalling, and dont have much impact, butvoeopke can also vice signal.
The British contribution of ATGMs is not nothing but it looks more like an effort to make any occupation more difficult than any serious attempt to defend against or deter an invasion.
If the Ukranians are in the position where they are trying to plink tanks from 600m then they've already lost. This isn't Kursk and it's not 1943. The Russian aren't going to come over the border with regimental strength tank formations. Look at how they fought in Chechnya and Syria; they did massive long range fires from artillery and MLRS. Each Russian infantry brigade has 3 artillery battalions and the parent group itself has its own artillery brigade. The preferred operation concept of the Russian is just to pound everything into dust from 10-20km and eschew close contact. They don't give a fuck about civilian casualties or collateral damage.
TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.
A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?
No.
Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.
The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.
Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.
If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.
FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
Under FPTP the wrong individuals get elected, because the electorate cannot discriminate among candidates of the same party.
This then gives very considerable power to the whips and the party machine.
Exactly. Under FPTP there is a strong incentive to weed out strong, upstanding characters early on in the selection process.
I quite like the STV system in Scottish local elections. If the SNP put up 3 candidates then electors are at liberty to rank them 1, 2 or 3; or mix n match with other prospective folk like the Green candidate. Not fault free, but a heck of a lot better than FPTP where you are occasionally forced to vote for a total plonker.
Or the List element of the fiddled d'Hondt system at Holyrood.
That’s a rubbish system. A hybrid. Typical Lib-Lab bùrach. Donald Dewar, Jim Wallace et al were always at it. Thinking they were clever when in fact they were blithering idiots.
They may not have thought about what the most optimal system was at all.
Insofar as I can see, Labour's entire motivation for introducing PR for the devolved assemblies was to ensure an endless succession of administrations run by it, on the basis that Labour was too strong to be supplanted by anyone else as the dominant pro-UK party, and there would never be anywhere close to a majority of votes cast for secessionist candidates.
It worked a treat in Wales. In the Scottish Parliament, not so much.
- “ They may not have thought about what the most optimal system was at all.”
Huh?!?
They thought about it for decades, quite literally. It paralysed and obsessed them.
Johnson's incompetent, utterly selfish, cares nothing for his country, and is currently as popular as the prospect of a handjob from Edward Scissorhands.
If the PCP chains itself to a deadweight then it will drown, and rightly so.
You think a hand job from Scisssorhands might cut it perchance?
Her article "the bad guys are winning" was a masterful piece of journalism and a real wake up call for the west that seems to have been totally ignored in Germany in particular.
The tories have done far, far more to advance Putin's strategic agenda with Brexit than the Germans have with their lack of enthusiasm for picking a side in the imminent war between Russia and Ukraine.
The past is important but surely not as much as the present? We are where we are and 'but...but Brexit' may well be true yet still a deflection about what, if anything, should be done 'now' by various sides.
As it is we are probably virtue signalling, and dont have much impact, butvoeopke can also vice signal.
Not really. Many of the same people who say something must be done are the same people who supported removing the unity that means that there is little anyone can do.
Western power will grow if we can consistently work together and take a multi lateral stance. If the right continue to support isolationist, transactional, authoritarian governments for cheap electoral advantage, then Western power will fall.
Those consequences need to be owned by the right who have ripped apart Western influence over the last decade, as only they can change it going forward.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
I have a friend who tried all the way through this pandemic to debunk it. First he told me it spread through the eyes. Then he denied masks work. Then he dissed vaccines. He went down this 'they only die with it' line and said it was a 'casedemic' not a pandemic.
It has been quite sad to witness someone who was once middle of the road and quite sensible join the conspiracy loons. Please don't be one of them.
With Covid and Of Covid are very valid distinctions to make.
A Freedom of Information request reveals for 2020 and first three quarter of 2021: 17,371 deaths with Covid alone on the death certificate.
Covid was present/hastened the deaths of those with comorbidities.
Average age of death from/with Covid was higher than the average life expectancy.
How the fuck does this data make me join the "conspiracy loons"? Spoiler: it doesn't.
Not unreasonable to include people for whom Covid was potentially a contributing factor to death, and we already know that covid is potentially lethal mostly for the elderly. It's possible to argue that opening up is the best thing for the economy, mental health, etc., despite a consequent rise in deaths. But not that it's not affecting the death rate at all.
Governments have all been in an invidious position with a mortal threat that still isn't fully understood. People generally recognise that, which is why, although they've tended to support tougher restrictions, they've cut Johnson some slack. Objectively it's a bit mad that one can preside over 150,000 deaths and remain popular, only to founder on the possibility that one may have been to or tolerated some parties, but people are more sensitive to alleged hypocrisy than they are to honest mistakes.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
They are afraid of uncertainty. Boris is flailing at best, and has been punctured like a balloon at worst, but he did lead them to a big big win. However rational it might appear to remove him right quick, there's no guarantee it improves their situation but a guarantee in the short term it will lead to a chaotic, internal mess.
So they hesistate, wait for more, then more, then its too late.
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Wouldn't Boris make a great Catholic? Break the rules, half hearted apology, sins forgiven, repeat ad infinitum?
Something I always wondered about the whole confession thing; for the true shameless arschloch surely you’d just tell your confessor about a mild case of coveting your neighbour’s ass and ignore the vast festering lagoon of your sin?
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Indeed, if there was a VONC next week which is likely after the Gray report is published, I think Boris would still win it about 55% to 45%. He would then be safe until the local elections at least
I would suggest that is what you hope will happen but none of us can be sure of the outcome
It would also see a disaster at the ballot box in May for conservatives
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
See my earlier post, re Prime ministerial broadcast next Sunday.
"I have read Sue Gray's report very carefully; we should be very grateful to her for examining the situation so thoroughly. It is clear that she has identified where responsibility lies and I have taken the appropriate steps to cleanse the stables.It is regrettable that I have to lose such otherwise able people, but the public deserves to see those responsible held to account."
Her article "the bad guys are winning" was a masterful piece of journalism and a real wake up call for the west that seems to have been totally ignored in Germany in particular.
The tories have done far, far more to advance Putin's strategic agenda with Brexit than the Germans have with their lack of enthusiasm for picking a side in the imminent war between Russia and Ukraine.
The past is important but surely not as much as the present? We are where we are and 'but...but Brexit' may well be true yet still a deflection about what, if anything, should be done 'now' by various sides.
As it is we are probably virtue signalling, and dont have much impact, butvoeopke can also vice signal.
Not really. Many of the same people who say something must be done are the same people who supported removing the unity that means that there is little anyone can do.
Western power will grow if we can consistently work together and take a multi lateral stance. If the right continue to support isolationist, transactional, authoritarian governments for cheap electoral advantage, then Western power will fall.
Those consequences need to be owned by the right who have ripped apart Western influence over the last decade, as only they can change it going forward.
There's a difference I think in laying out responsibility (or partial responsibility) for development of a situation which another is exploiting, and deflecting from the responsibility being on the exploiter as being the more pressing matter. Whatever else has contributed to the atmosphere no one is making Putin ratchet things up, and responding to that is more vital than analysing precise historical contributory factors. It seems analagous to those rather infantising takes on the ME which put every current action down to the hands of the former Imperial powers - the actions taken by the UK and others in the past are very big deals, but the actors in the region now have personal agency.
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Wouldn't Boris make a great Catholic? Break the rules, half hearted apology, sins forgiven, repeat ad infinitum?
Something I always wondered about the whole confession thing; for the true shameless arschloch surely you’d just tell your confessor about a mild case of coveting your neighbour’s ass and ignore the vast festering lagoon of your sin?
If I was starting a religion confession and your sins being absolved is one thing I would definitely copy. A marketeers dream clause. Much better than however many virgins in an after life.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
I wonder if the consideration for some is the looming cost of living crisis. Let Johnson take the unpopularity hit for the NI rise/ energy cost increase double whammy, and then replace him in good time for GE 24.
Also, "wait for the report" is quite a natural position. It's coming shortly, and if they rush out with a VONC first then loyalists will say the critics don't care about the evidence. I expect quite a few letters to go in if the report is even moderately hostile.
Do we know exactly how the publication of a summary is supposed to work? Presumably not like those theatre adverts that only quote the one positive feature of the play. Will the author get a say in what's published? I'd be tempted in her place to write a section called SUMMARY myself, and dare the Government not to use it.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Boris would still win it about 55% to 45%. He would then be safe until the local elections at least
Putin has some time but not a lot of time. He's got about 6-8 weeks before the great Ukranian 'распутица' (thaw) turns Eastern Ukraine into an impassable sea of mud. If it's going to happen he can't wait for the local election results in May.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Indeed, if there was a VONC next week which is likely after the Gray report is published, I think Boris would still win it about 55% to 45%. He would then be safe until the local elections at least
I would suggest that is what you hope will happen but none of us can be sure of the outcome
It would also see a disaster at the ballot box in May for conservatives
Which is why I said he would then be safe until the May local elections but not necessarily beyond if the Tories lose lots of councillors and councils in May, particularly flagship councils in London like Wandsworth and Westminster.
May remember won the December 2018 VONC but went after the dreadful 2019 local election results for the Tories
On topic: Here is my way out prediction on the defection front, and I have absolutely no intelligence to back this up, but my prediction is Caroline Noakes to the LDs.
Well she is MP for Romsey and Romsey was LD held from the 2000 by election until 2010 and it is the 32nd LD target seat and she was a Remainer. So not a bad prediction
The Southampton North part of the constituency includes quite a lot of the student accommodation for Southampton University.
Urging fellow red wallers to keep johnson because he is a more certain source of ongoing pork for the Red Wall than Truss or Sunak. One wonders what he was offered to adopt this position.
In truth, the New Zealand "red light" measures aren't a million miles away from our "Plan B". They have a more stringent Covid-pass regimen in place but the problem is only 23% of the population have had the booster or third vaccination while 93% have had two vaccinations. In effect, there are 3 million people with two vaccinations but not a third. The programme to get the boosters into the population is being accelerated but given the time it takes for the vaccination to take effect there will be a definite rise in cases "in the community" as they call it.
They are NOT trying to "eliminate" Omicron - they are trying, as we did, to slow down the spread. The main restriction is on events of over 100 people indoors - remember it's mid summer over there.
The more serious problem is or are the number of New Zealanders trapped abroad wanting to get home. Mrs Stodge got back (for reasons I won't go into she is in NZ now) but the MIQ system has limited capacity. Pre-Omicron, the plan had been to remove the quarantine requirement by February but that will be delayed further though even within the NZ Government there is a clear recognition Omicron will have to be managed rather than any notion of elimination.
There's no doubt the NZ economy is hurting from the absence of foreign visitors - they've lost two summers worth of income - and while locals have been able to go out and around the country, it's nowhere near plugging the gap.
I don't think some of you realise just how deeply unpopular Boris Johnson is with his own MPs right across all wings and factions. They don't even consider themselves 'his'.
If the ballot is truly secret I believe it will be curtains for the man.
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Wouldn't Boris make a great Catholic? Break the rules, half hearted apology, sins forgiven, repeat ad infinitum?
Something I always wondered about the whole confession thing; for the true shameless arschloch surely you’d just tell your confessor about a mild case of coveting your neighbour’s ass and ignore the vast festering lagoon of your sin?
‘I have been impure in thought/ word/ deed (delete as, and if, appropriate)’ is a very useful formulation.
Her article "the bad guys are winning" was a masterful piece of journalism and a real wake up call for the west that seems to have been totally ignored in Germany in particular.
The tories have done far, far more to advance Putin's strategic agenda with Brexit than the Germans have with their lack of enthusiasm for picking a side in the imminent war between Russia and Ukraine.
The past is important but surely not as much as the present? We are where we are and 'but...but Brexit' may well be true yet still a deflection about what, if anything, should be done 'now' by various sides.
As it is we are probably virtue signalling, and dont have much impact, butvoeopke can also vice signal.
Not really. Many of the same people who say something must be done are the same people who supported removing the unity that means that there is little anyone can do.
Western power will grow if we can consistently work together and take a multi lateral stance. If the right continue to support isolationist, transactional, authoritarian governments for cheap electoral advantage, then Western power will fall.
Those consequences need to be owned by the right who have ripped apart Western influence over the last decade, as only they can change it going forward.
There's a difference I think in laying out responsibility (or partial responsibility) for development of a situation which another is exploiting, and deflecting from the responsibility being on the exploiter as being the more pressing matter. Whatever else has contributed to the atmosphere no one is making Putin ratchet things up, and responding to that is more vital than analysing precise historical contributory factors. It seems analagous to those rather infantising takes on the ME which put every current action down to the hands of the former Imperial powers - the actions taken by the UK and others in the past are very big deals, but the actors in the region now have personal agency.
Of course it would be lovely if Putin and Xi were nice guys who shared our world view, but they don't. The west collectively have been played for fools by Putin over the last decade. They have used our open society, media and technology against us to divide us with remarkable success.
Whilst there may be little we can do effectively militarily, without great cost, we can learn that we are indeed stronger together and not allow our own leaders to continue to divide us. Then perhaps in 2032 things will look better than they do today.
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Wouldn't Boris make a great Catholic? Break the rules, half hearted apology, sins forgiven, repeat ad infinitum?
Something I always wondered about the whole confession thing; for the true shameless arschloch surely you’d just tell your confessor about a mild case of coveting your neighbour’s ass and ignore the vast festering lagoon of your sin?
If I was starting a religion confession and your sins being absolved is one thing I would definitely copy. A marketeers dream clause. Much better than however many virgins in an after life.
I've sometimes wondered about those virgins. Are they perpetually virgin, or is their virginity capable of being perpetually reinstated?
This is quite a tricky one to predict who could defect from Tory to Labour next until it actually happens. Pretty much any red wall MP who has a majority of 8000 or less.
I think my guess would possibly be someone like Alexander Stafford (Rother Valley) who is bit more of a Cameroon MP or maybe one the Welsh MPs although Labour wouldn't accept Rob Roberts.
That Tory MP needs their critical faculties examined urgently and maybe a brain scan to check there is something actually in his skull.
So he thinks that a PM who has demonstratively fallen more than short, is lazy, is a liar, and generally incompetent (couldn’t be bothered to write all his failings so using this as a catch-all) is a better option than anyone else? Does he not realise what message that sends to the world?
“Buy this car, it’s the best car we have for sale, ok it’s got no wheels, the engine is fucked, the brakes don’t work, it emits vile emissions but as I said, compared to the other cars we have for sale it’s a beauty”….
By Wednesday night some of Boris’s more excitable supporters were briefing that the rebels were in full retreat, and the coup against him had collapsed. They aren’t. It’s now only a matter of when, not if, the plotters strike.
One of the problems for the Prime Minister is his enemies now span every faction of the Tory Party. Last week it was the Red Wallers. Next week the Tory grandees will start to make their own move.
‘We’re heading for a confidence vote,’ one former Cabinet Minister told me.
‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Then there are the Spartans. Up until now the doughty defenders of Brexit have been keeping their powder dry. But they are still furious at Boris’s disastrous – and abortive – attempt to save Owen Paterson. On Thursday, Steve Baker finally broke cover and warned: ‘It looks like checkmate for the Prime Minister.’
TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.
A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?
No.
Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.
The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.
Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.
If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.
FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
Under FPTP the wrong individuals get elected, because the electorate cannot discriminate among candidates of the same party.
This then gives very considerable power to the whips and the party machine.
Exactly. Under FPTP there is a strong incentive to weed out strong, upstanding characters early on in the selection process.
I quite like the STV system in Scottish local elections. If the SNP put up 3 candidates then electors are at liberty to rank them 1, 2 or 3; or mix n match with other prospective folk like the Green candidate. Not fault free, but a heck of a lot better than FPTP where you are occasionally forced to vote for a total plonker.
Or the List element of the fiddled d'Hondt system at Holyrood.
That’s a rubbish system. A hybrid. Typical Lib-Lab bùrach. Donald Dewar, Jim Wallace et al were always at it. Thinking they were clever when in fact they were blithering idiots.
They may not have thought about what the most optimal system was at all.
Insofar as I can see, Labour's entire motivation for introducing PR for the devolved assemblies was to ensure an endless succession of administrations run by it, on the basis that Labour was too strong to be supplanted by anyone else as the dominant pro-UK party, and there would never be anywhere close to a majority of votes cast for secessionist candidates.
It worked a treat in Wales. In the Scottish Parliament, not so much.
- “ They may not have thought about what the most optimal system was at all.”
Huh?!?
They thought about it for decades, quite literally. It paralysed and obsessed them.
From my not particularly deep readings on the subject I wonder if it was one of those areas which which would have actually benefitted from Blair interfering more? Afaics TB found Scotland something of an uninteresting mystery but since the Scottish faction was so powerful within Labour he felt he should go along with what ever they wanted.
Of course Tories going on about what a disaster was asymmetric devolution is great entertainment when the party which they support backtracked, obstructed, broke promises and sat with their fingers firmly in their ears on the subject for decades.
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Wouldn't Boris make a great Catholic? Break the rules, half hearted apology, sins forgiven, repeat ad infinitum?
Something I always wondered about the whole confession thing; for the true shameless arschloch surely you’d just tell your confessor about a mild case of coveting your neighbour’s ass and ignore the vast festering lagoon of your sin?
If I was starting a religion confession and your sins being absolved is one thing I would definitely copy. A marketeers dream clause. Much better than however many virgins in an after life.
I've sometimes wondered about those virgins. Are they perpetually virgin, or is their virginity capable of being perpetually reinstated?
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
17,371 people have died from Covid. The rest are with Covid.
On topic: Here is my way out prediction on the defection front, and I have absolutely no intelligence to back this up, but my prediction is Caroline Noakes to the LDs.
Well she is MP for Romsey and Romsey was LD held from the 2000 by election until 2010 and it is the 32nd LD target seat and she was a Remainer. So not a bad prediction
The Southampton North part of the constituency includes quite a lot of the student accommodation for Southampton University.
Most of which goes LD not Labour though.
Labour got just 11% in Romsey and Southampton North in 2019 compared to 33% for the LDs
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Wouldn't Boris make a great Catholic? Break the rules, half hearted apology, sins forgiven, repeat ad infinitum?
Something I always wondered about the whole confession thing; for the true shameless arschloch surely you’d just tell your confessor about a mild case of coveting your neighbour’s ass and ignore the vast festering lagoon of your sin?
If I was starting a religion confession and your sins being absolved is one thing I would definitely copy. A marketeers dream clause. Much better than however many virgins in an after life.
On topic, I see the Sunday Times is running three to four days behind the Morning Stodge in its thinking so nothing unusual there.
I suggested a few days ago the new crop of 2019 Conservative MPs were much less ideological than some might have supposed. In contrast to the 1983 intake which was solidly Thatcherite, the 2019 group, which undoubtedly included a number who hadn't expected to win but did, aren't staunch Brexit-loving admirers of Boris Johnson.
They seem to this non-Conservative observer to be more interested in old-fashioned notions like looking after and representing their constituents and doing their best for their constituencies. One might almost call them One Nation Conservatives but I imagine such a term is anathema in the populist era.
Nonetheless, the problem is the inevitable fall of Johnson and his populist Conservative brand will sweep many of these more traditional Conservatives away as well. @HYUFD seems adamant the Conservative Party will shift further right in opposition - that was the 1997 experience but a lot will depend on the scale and size of the defeat.
The defection of Wakeford can perhaps be seen in this context or was it simply self-preservation following a poor set of local election results indicating he was in serious danger of not being re-elected? The polling of the 40 "Red Wall" seats suggests all are currently under threat and with double figure poll leads and swings of up to 15% that would extend to a good selection of other backbench MPs.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Indeed, if there was a VONC next week which is likely after the Gray report is published, I think Boris would still win it about 55% to 45%. He would then be safe until the local elections at least
I would suggest that is what you hope will happen but none of us can be sure of the outcome
It would also see a disaster at the ballot box in May for conservatives
Which is why I said he would then be safe until the May local elections but not necessarily beyond if the Tories lose lots of councillors and councils in May, particularly flagship councils in London like Wandsworth and Westminster.
May remember won the December 2018 VONC but went after the dreadful 2019 local election results for the Tories
As a Tory MP has told the Observer, "my councillors are saying why should I lose my seat because the MPs have no spine"
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Indeed, if there was a VONC next week which is likely after the Gray report is published, I think Boris would still win it about 55% to 45%. He would then be safe until the local elections at least
I would suggest that is what you hope will happen but none of us can be sure of the outcome
It would also see a disaster at the ballot box in May for conservatives
Which is why I said he would then be safe until the May local elections but not necessarily beyond if the Tories lose lots of councillors and councils in May, particularly flagship councils in London like Wandsworth and Westminster.
May remember won the December 2018 VONC but went after the dreadful 2019 local election results for the Tories
As a Tory MP has told the Observer, "my councillors are saying why should I lose my seat because the MPs have no spine"
Perhaps he should tell them if they werent such lightweights then they would be MPs too?
According to Twitter up to 200 (!) trains worth of Russian troops are due to arrive in Belarus
Ukraine better hope they are being operated by Southern
I've just seen a whole lot of Russian troops at East Croydon Station. I knew they were Russian because they had snow on their boots.
1914 vibes.
"The Russians used to fight on OUR side!"
I seem to remember being taught that it was us plus assorted Germans..... mainly Prussians ..... vs the French and the Russians, on the grounds that neighbours habitually quarrelled with neighbours.
TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.
A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?
No.
Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.
The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.
Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.
If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.
FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
Under FPTP the wrong individuals get elected, because the electorate cannot discriminate among candidates of the same party.
This then gives very considerable power to the whips and the party machine.
Exactly. Under FPTP there is a strong incentive to weed out strong, upstanding characters early on in the selection process.
I quite like the STV system in Scottish local elections. If the SNP put up 3 candidates then electors are at liberty to rank them 1, 2 or 3; or mix n match with other prospective folk like the Green candidate. Not fault free, but a heck of a lot better than FPTP where you are occasionally forced to vote for a total plonker.
Or the List element of the fiddled d'Hondt system at Holyrood.
That’s a rubbish system. A hybrid. Typical Lib-Lab bùrach. Donald Dewar, Jim Wallace et al were always at it. Thinking they were clever when in fact they were blithering idiots.
They may not have thought about what the most optimal system was at all.
Insofar as I can see, Labour's entire motivation for introducing PR for the devolved assemblies was to ensure an endless succession of administrations run by it, on the basis that Labour was too strong to be supplanted by anyone else as the dominant pro-UK party, and there would never be anywhere close to a majority of votes cast for secessionist candidates.
It worked a treat in Wales. In the Scottish Parliament, not so much.
- “ They may not have thought about what the most optimal system was at all.”
Huh?!?
They thought about it for decades, quite literally. It paralysed and obsessed them.
From my not particularly deep readings on the subject I wonder if it was one of those areas which which would have actually benefitted from Blair interfering more? Afaics TB found Scotland something of an uninteresting mystery but since the Scottish faction was so powerful within Labour he felt he should go along with what ever they wanted.
Of course Tories going on about what a disaster was asymmetric devolution is great entertainment when the party which they support backtracked, obstructed, broke promises and sat with their fingers firmly in their ears on the subject for decades.
Tories don’t even understand their own history. Prior to the old Unionist Party being absorbed lock, stock and barrel by the English Conservative Party in the 1960s, Scottish Tories presented themselves as the champions of Scotland, with some validity. That instinct quickly dissipated as the Declaration of Perth was hurriedly buried by English Tories, with Thatcher completing the task using the spineless Malcolm Rifkind et al.
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Wouldn't Boris make a great Catholic? Break the rules, half hearted apology, sins forgiven, repeat ad infinitum?
Something I always wondered about the whole confession thing; for the true shameless arschloch surely you’d just tell your confessor about a mild case of coveting your neighbour’s ass and ignore the vast festering lagoon of your sin?
If I was starting a religion confession and your sins being absolved is one thing I would definitely copy. A marketeers dream clause. Much better than however many virgins in an after life.
I've sometimes wondered about those virgins. Are they perpetually virgin, or is their virginity capable of being perpetually reinstated?
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
17,371 people have died from Covid. The rest are with Covid.
But there's no way to debate with the conspiracy loons. Like JW's etc. You believe, and believe that YouTube validates your position ... then you're a lost cause to science.
Germany potentially has a lot more influence over Russia than the UK. It can decide to buy the oil and gas that funds the Russian economy, or not buy it. It loses its leverage if it says up front it will buy the gas or it won't buy it, regardless of what Russia does. Arguably keeping the threat vague but credible is the most effective, and that is what Putin is doing on his side.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Urging fellow red wallers to keep johnson because he is a more certain source of ongoing pork for the Red Wall than Truss or Sunak. One wonders what he was offered to adopt this position.
Nothing - because the great unknown is what will Sunak do when he is in power. Will he follow the Treasury approach of No to everything or will he actually spend some money and get this countries infrastructure fit for a post net zero world.
BTW it's probably obvious to everyone here but if it isn't - since binning HS2E it's impossible for us to meet our Glasgow commitments.
On topic, I see the Sunday Times is running three to four days behind the Morning Stodge in its thinking so nothing unusual there.
I suggested a few days ago the new crop of 2019 Conservative MPs were much less ideological than some might have supposed. In contrast to the 1983 intake which was solidly Thatcherite, the 2019 group, which undoubtedly included a number who hadn't expected to win but did, aren't staunch Brexit-loving admirers of Boris Johnson.
They seem to this non-Conservative observer to be more interested in old-fashioned notions like looking after and representing their constituents and doing their best for their constituencies. One might almost call them One Nation Conservatives but I imagine such a term is anathema in the populist era.
Nonetheless, the problem is the inevitable fall of Johnson and his populist Conservative brand will sweep many of these more traditional Conservatives away as well. @HYUFD seems adamant the Conservative Party will shift further right in opposition - that was the 1997 experience but a lot will depend on the scale and size of the defeat.
The defection of Wakeford can perhaps be seen in this context or was it simply self-preservation following a poor set of local election results indicating he was in serious danger of not being re-elected? The polling of the 40 "Red Wall" seats suggests all are currently under threat and with double figure poll leads and swings of up to 15% that would extend to a good selection of other backbench MPs.
Parties almost always move further to the extremes after losing power at a general election.
After Labour lost in 1979, it elected Foot as leader in 1980 to replace Callaghan. When the Tories lost in 1997 they elected Hague as leader to replace Major, followed by IDS in 2001. When Labour lost in 2010 they elected Ed Miliband as leader to replace Brown followed by Corbyn in 2015
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Indeed, if there was a VONC next week which is likely after the Gray report is published, I think Boris would still win it about 55% to 45%. He would then be safe until the local elections at least
I would suggest that is what you hope will happen but none of us can be sure of the outcome
It would also see a disaster at the ballot box in May for conservatives
Which is why I said he would then be safe until the May local elections but not necessarily beyond if the Tories lose lots of councillors and councils in May, particularly flagship councils in London like Wandsworth and Westminster.
May remember won the December 2018 VONC but went after the dreadful 2019 local election results for the Tories
As a Tory MP has told the Observer, "my councillors are saying why should I lose my seat because the MPs have no spine"
It's always been that way. Local councillors, no matter how good or bad, live or die by the national swing.
But waiting for the May election results is cowardly procrastination by MPs, who are the only ones who can stop this. What excuse will they use after that?
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Those two need sending back to the backbenches asap
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Indeed, if there was a VONC next week which is likely after the Gray report is published, I think Boris would still win it about 55% to 45%. He would then be safe until the local elections at least
I would suggest that is what you hope will happen but none of us can be sure of the outcome
It would also see a disaster at the ballot box in May for conservatives
Which is why I said he would then be safe until the May local elections but not necessarily beyond if the Tories lose lots of councillors and councils in May, particularly flagship councils in London like Wandsworth and Westminster.
May remember won the December 2018 VONC but went after the dreadful 2019 local election results for the Tories
As a Tory MP has told the Observer, "my councillors are saying why should I lose my seat because the MPs have no spine"
Even if that may sway some Tory MPs, most Tory MPs do not have local elections in their area this year. Local elections this year are mainly in London, Wales and Scotland and Labour held metropolitan areas, only a minority of Tory shires have elections and those that do only will have a third of councillors up.
It is next year when most of the Tory shires will have local elections
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
What they are afraid of is that 50% will vote to keep Boris in the VONC
And I suspect they are right
Indeed, if there was a VONC next week which is likely after the Gray report is published, I think Boris would still win it about 55% to 45%. He would then be safe until the local elections at least
I would suggest that is what you hope will happen but none of us can be sure of the outcome
It would also see a disaster at the ballot box in May for conservatives
Which is why I said he would then be safe until the May local elections but not necessarily beyond if the Tories lose lots of councillors and councils in May, particularly flagship councils in London like Wandsworth and Westminster.
May remember won the December 2018 VONC but went after the dreadful 2019 local election results for the Tories
As a Tory MP has told the Observer, "my councillors are saying why should I lose my seat because the MPs have no spine"
Even if that may sway some Tory MPs, most Tory MPs do not have local elections in their area this year. Local elections this year are mainly in London, Wales and Scotland and Labour held metropolitan areas, only a minority of Tory shires have elections and those that do only will have a third of councillors up.
It is next year when most of the Tory shires will have local elections
"This is a LOCAL election for LOCAL people! There's nothing for YOU here!"
On topic, I see the Sunday Times is running three to four days behind the Morning Stodge in its thinking so nothing unusual there.
I suggested a few days ago the new crop of 2019 Conservative MPs were much less ideological than some might have supposed. In contrast to the 1983 intake which was solidly Thatcherite, the 2019 group, which undoubtedly included a number who hadn't expected to win but did, aren't staunch Brexit-loving admirers of Boris Johnson.
They seem to this non-Conservative observer to be more interested in old-fashioned notions like looking after and representing their constituents and doing their best for their constituencies. One might almost call them One Nation Conservatives but I imagine such a term is anathema in the populist era.
Nonetheless, the problem is the inevitable fall of Johnson and his populist Conservative brand will sweep many of these more traditional Conservatives away as well. @HYUFD seems adamant the Conservative Party will shift further right in opposition - that was the 1997 experience but a lot will depend on the scale and size of the defeat.
The defection of Wakeford can perhaps be seen in this context or was it simply self-preservation following a poor set of local election results indicating he was in serious danger of not being re-elected? The polling of the 40 "Red Wall" seats suggests all are currently under threat and with double figure poll leads and swings of up to 15% that would extend to a good selection of other backbench MPs.
Parties almost always move further to the extremes after losing power at a general election.
After Labour lost in 1979, it elected Foot as leader in 1980 to replace Callaghan. When the Tories lost in 1997 they elected Hague as leader to replace Major, followed by IDS in 2001. When Labour lost in 2010 they elected Ed Miliband as leader to replace Brown followed by Corbyn in 2015
You must have told us that a hundred times already. You always miss the bit off the end, that it is dumb and simply prolongs the time in opposition.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
17,371 people have died from Covid. The rest are with Covid.
But there's no way to debate with the conspiracy loons. Like JW's etc. You believe, and believe that YouTube validates your position ... then you're a lost cause to science.
Its an answer to a Freedom of Information request. How is that "utter conspiracy nonsense"? I have zero tolerance of anti-vaxxers. I am double-jabbed and boosted. But should we just ignore that 8 times more people died with comorbidities? Surely it should be used to inform public health campaigns ahead of the next pandemic?
This is quite a tricky one to predict who could defect from Tory to Labour next until it actually happens. Pretty much any red wall MP who has a majority of 8000 or less.
I think my guess would possibly be someone like Alexander Stafford (Rother Valley) who is bit more of a Cameroon MP or maybe one the Welsh MPs although Labour wouldn't accept Rob Roberts.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
On topic, I see the Sunday Times is running three to four days behind the Morning Stodge in its thinking so nothing unusual there.
I suggested a few days ago the new crop of 2019 Conservative MPs were much less ideological than some might have supposed. In contrast to the 1983 intake which was solidly Thatcherite, the 2019 group, which undoubtedly included a number who hadn't expected to win but did, aren't staunch Brexit-loving admirers of Boris Johnson.
They seem to this non-Conservative observer to be more interested in old-fashioned notions like looking after and representing their constituents and doing their best for their constituencies. One might almost call them One Nation Conservatives but I imagine such a term is anathema in the populist era.
Nonetheless, the problem is the inevitable fall of Johnson and his populist Conservative brand will sweep many of these more traditional Conservatives away as well. @HYUFD seems adamant the Conservative Party will shift further right in opposition - that was the 1997 experience but a lot will depend on the scale and size of the defeat.
The defection of Wakeford can perhaps be seen in this context or was it simply self-preservation following a poor set of local election results indicating he was in serious danger of not being re-elected? The polling of the 40 "Red Wall" seats suggests all are currently under threat and with double figure poll leads and swings of up to 15% that would extend to a good selection of other backbench MPs.
Parties almost always move further to the extremes after losing power at a general election.
After Labour lost in 1979, it elected Foot as leader in 1980 to replace Callaghan. When the Tories lost in 1997 they elected Hague as leader to replace Major, followed by IDS in 2001. When Labour lost in 2010 they elected Ed Miliband as leader to replace Brown followed by Corbyn in 2015
You must have told us that a hundred times already. You always miss the bit off the end, that it is dumb and simply prolongs the time in opposition.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
Comments
Had expenses problems over her flat, IIRC.
As it is we are probably virtue signalling, and dont have much impact, butvoeopke can also vice signal.
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
And I suspect they are right
Er, no
-Dominic Raab
(Laughter off camera)
#SundayMorning
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1485186186943422467
An audible laugh could be hear from someone in the #SundayMorning studio as Sophie asks Raab if next week "could you be PM?"
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1485186702348013570
Johnson's incompetent, utterly selfish, cares nothing for his country, and is currently as popular as the prospect of a handjob from Edward Scissorhands.
If the PCP chains itself to a deadweight then it will drown, and rightly so.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
If the Ukranians are in the position where they are trying to plink tanks from 600m then they've already lost. This isn't Kursk and it's not 1943. The Russian aren't going to come over the border with regimental strength tank formations. Look at how they fought in Chechnya and Syria; they did massive long range fires from artillery and MLRS. Each Russian infantry brigade has 3 artillery battalions and the parent group itself has its own artillery brigade. The preferred operation concept of the Russian is just to pound everything into dust from 10-20km and eschew close contact. They don't give a fuck about civilian casualties or collateral damage.
Huh?!?
They thought about it for decades, quite literally. It paralysed and obsessed them.
Western power will grow if we can consistently work together and take a multi lateral stance. If the right continue to support isolationist, transactional, authoritarian governments for cheap electoral advantage, then Western power will fall.
Those consequences need to be owned by the right who have ripped apart Western influence over the last decade, as only they can change it going forward.
Governments have all been in an invidious position with a mortal threat that still isn't fully understood. People generally recognise that, which is why, although they've tended to support tougher restrictions, they've cut Johnson some slack. Objectively it's a bit mad that one can preside over 150,000 deaths and remain popular, only to founder on the possibility that one may have been to or tolerated some parties, but people are more sensitive to alleged hypocrisy than they are to honest mistakes.
So they hesistate, wait for more, then more, then its too late.
It would also see a disaster at the ballot box in May for conservatives
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10431093/Would-challengers-Tory-leadership-falling-short-says-rebel-Conservative-MP.html
"I have read Sue Gray's report very carefully; we should be very grateful to her for examining the situation so thoroughly. It is clear that she has identified where responsibility lies and I have taken the appropriate steps to cleanse the stables.It is regrettable that I have to lose such otherwise able people, but the public deserves to see those responsible held to account."
Do we know exactly how the publication of a summary is supposed to work? Presumably not like those theatre adverts that only quote the one positive feature of the play. Will the author get a say in what's published? I'd be tempted in her place to write a section called SUMMARY myself, and dare the Government not to use it.
B
O
R
I
S
L
I
E
D
May remember won the December 2018 VONC but went after the dreadful 2019 local election results for the Tories
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10430501/DAN-HODGES-Red-Wall-rebels-arent-retreat-Boris-just-matter-strike.html
In truth, the New Zealand "red light" measures aren't a million miles away from our "Plan B". They have a more stringent Covid-pass regimen in place but the problem is only 23% of the population have had the booster or third vaccination while 93% have had two vaccinations. In effect, there are 3 million people with two vaccinations but not a third. The programme to get the boosters into the population is being accelerated but given the time it takes for the vaccination to take effect there will be a definite rise in cases "in the community" as they call it.
They are NOT trying to "eliminate" Omicron - they are trying, as we did, to slow down the spread. The main restriction is on events of over 100 people indoors - remember it's mid summer over there.
The more serious problem is or are the number of New Zealanders trapped abroad wanting to get home. Mrs Stodge got back (for reasons I won't go into she is in NZ now) but the MIQ system has limited capacity. Pre-Omicron, the plan had been to remove the quarantine requirement by February but that will be delayed further though even within the NZ Government there is a clear recognition Omicron will have to be managed rather than any notion of elimination.
There's no doubt the NZ economy is hurting from the absence of foreign visitors - they've lost two summers worth of income - and while locals have been able to go out and around the country, it's nowhere near plugging the gap.
If the ballot is truly secret I believe it will be curtains for the man.
Whilst there may be little we can do effectively militarily, without great cost, we can learn that we are indeed stronger together and not allow our own leaders to continue to divide us. Then perhaps in 2032 things will look better than they do today.
Apols. to any Muslim reader who is offended.
I think my guess would possibly be someone like Alexander Stafford (Rother Valley) who is bit more of a Cameroon MP or maybe one the Welsh MPs although Labour wouldn't accept Rob Roberts.
So he thinks that a PM who has demonstratively fallen more than short, is lazy, is a liar, and generally incompetent (couldn’t be bothered to write all his failings so using this as a catch-all) is a better option than anyone else? Does he not realise what message that sends to the world?
“Buy this car, it’s the best car we have for sale, ok it’s got no wheels, the engine is fucked, the brakes don’t work, it emits vile emissions but as I said, compared to the other cars we have for sale it’s a beauty”….
By Wednesday night some of Boris’s more excitable supporters were briefing that the rebels were in full retreat, and the coup against him had collapsed. They aren’t. It’s now only a matter of when, not if, the plotters strike.
One of the problems for the Prime Minister is his enemies now span every faction of the Tory Party. Last week it was the Red Wallers. Next week the Tory grandees will start to make their own move.
‘We’re heading for a confidence vote,’ one former Cabinet Minister told me.
‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Then there are the Spartans. Up until now the doughty defenders of Brexit have been keeping their powder dry. But they are still furious at Boris’s disastrous – and abortive – attempt to save Owen Paterson. On Thursday, Steve Baker finally broke cover and warned: ‘It looks like checkmate for the Prime Minister.’
Of course Tories going on about what a disaster was asymmetric devolution is great entertainment when the party which they support backtracked, obstructed, broke promises and sat with their fingers firmly in their ears on the subject for decades.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UHvwWWcjYw
Labour got just 11% in Romsey and Southampton North in 2019 compared to 33% for the LDs
- Lazarus Long (aka Robert Heinlein)
I suggested a few days ago the new crop of 2019 Conservative MPs were much less ideological than some might have supposed. In contrast to the 1983 intake which was solidly Thatcherite, the 2019 group, which undoubtedly included a number who hadn't expected to win but did, aren't staunch Brexit-loving admirers of Boris Johnson.
They seem to this non-Conservative observer to be more interested in old-fashioned notions like looking after and representing their constituents and doing their best for their constituencies. One might almost call them One Nation Conservatives but I imagine such a term is anathema in the populist era.
Nonetheless, the problem is the inevitable fall of Johnson and his populist Conservative brand will sweep many of these more traditional Conservatives away as well. @HYUFD seems adamant the Conservative Party will shift further right in opposition - that was the 1997 experience but a lot will depend on the scale and size of the defeat.
The defection of Wakeford can perhaps be seen in this context or was it simply self-preservation following a poor set of local election results indicating he was in serious danger of not being re-elected? The polling of the 40 "Red Wall" seats suggests all are currently under threat and with double figure poll leads and swings of up to 15% that would extend to a good selection of other backbench MPs.
But there's no way to debate with the conspiracy loons. Like JW's etc. You believe, and believe that YouTube validates your position ... then you're a lost cause to science.
"
At some point Germany will have to commit though.
BTW it's probably obvious to everyone here but if it isn't - since binning HS2E it's impossible for us to meet our Glasgow commitments.
After Labour lost in 1979, it elected Foot as leader in 1980 to replace Callaghan. When the Tories lost in 1997 they elected Hague as leader to replace Major, followed by IDS in 2001. When Labour lost in 2010 they elected Ed Miliband as leader to replace Brown followed by Corbyn in 2015
But waiting for the May election results is cowardly procrastination by MPs, who are the only ones who can stop this. What excuse will they use after that?
It is next year when most of the Tory shires will have local elections
The new Churchill.
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1484112611616735233
The Weinstein defence in all its glory.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
‘I have removed all those responsible for the Final Solution unpleasantness, a term which no one told me the meaning of until weeks ago.’