...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
Mike seems to be confused about what the complaint is about - it's not a whip pointing out that if you don't vote we won't do you any favours it's if you don't vote for X we will scrap the school we were planning to build.
And that sort of pork belly politics shouldn't exist in the UK
Applebaum is spinning wildly there. I've been educated on PB to understand the case for weapons to Ukraine better, but it's not disreputable for someone to argue the other way. I very much doubt if China will express an opinion either way.
Look at a map. If Russia (*if* Russia) is moving material (and aircraft) as well as conscripts away from the east to the Ukraine border, then China must have been squared off. If it isn't then it hasn't.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
The redacters about to be sent in to do a deep clean?
Apparently it has been said names will be in the report but redacted and sent to the civil service HR departments to deal with under employment law
The PM gets to choose what is published, as is traditional with all independent inquiries.
I can only say what has been reported and no doubt there are HR issues for all those civil servants working at No 10
The government have not committed to publishing the report as presented or in full. It is not just possible redactions of names, but they could exclude whole sections or incriminating emails if they choose to do so.
On topic, I see the Sunday Times is running three to four days behind the Morning Stodge in its thinking so nothing unusual there.
I suggested a few days ago the new crop of 2019 Conservative MPs were much less ideological than some might have supposed. In contrast to the 1983 intake which was solidly Thatcherite, the 2019 group, which undoubtedly included a number who hadn't expected to win but did, aren't staunch Brexit-loving admirers of Boris Johnson.
They seem to this non-Conservative observer to be more interested in old-fashioned notions like looking after and representing their constituents and doing their best for their constituencies. One might almost call them One Nation Conservatives but I imagine such a term is anathema in the populist era.
Nonetheless, the problem is the inevitable fall of Johnson and his populist Conservative brand will sweep many of these more traditional Conservatives away as well. @HYUFD seems adamant the Conservative Party will shift further right in opposition - that was the 1997 experience but a lot will depend on the scale and size of the defeat.
The defection of Wakeford can perhaps be seen in this context or was it simply self-preservation following a poor set of local election results indicating he was in serious danger of not being re-elected? The polling of the 40 "Red Wall" seats suggests all are currently under threat and with double figure poll leads and swings of up to 15% that would extend to a good selection of other backbench MPs.
Parties almost always move further to the extremes after losing power at a general election.
After Labour lost in 1979, it elected Foot as leader in 1980 to replace Callaghan. When the Tories lost in 1997 they elected Hague as leader to replace Major, followed by IDS in 2001. When Labour lost in 2010 they elected Ed Miliband as leader to replace Brown followed by Corbyn in 2015
You must have told us that a hundred times already. You always miss the bit off the end, that it is dumb and simply prolongs the time in opposition.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
It wouldn't have mattered in 2015. Cameron and the Tories would still have turned on the LibDems and created a majority by winning their seats, as happened.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
Mike seems to be confused about what the complaint is about - it's not a whip pointing out that if you don't vote we won't do you any favours it's if you don't vote for X we will scrap the school we were planning to build.
And that sort of pork belly politics shouldn't exist in the UK
Exactly. Whips are the enforcers and everyone accepts that but there are limits on what they can enforce and how.
It seems they may have crossed a line here and it does MF and his Party no good to pretend otherwise.
Urging fellow red wallers to keep johnson because he is a more certain source of ongoing pork for the Red Wall than Truss or Sunak. One wonders what he was offered to adopt this position.
Nothing - because the great unknown is what will Sunak do when he is in power. Will he follow the Treasury approach of No to everything or will he actually spend some money and get this countries infrastructure fit for a post net zero world.
BTW it's probably obvious to everyone here but if it isn't - since binning HS2E it's impossible for us to meet our Glasgow commitments.
This is the thing re Sunak - so far all we know about his ideology is framed by what his leader wants and so he is constrained by this. He has limited levers to act against anything he doesn’t agree with and so, for example, when people see him as Chancellor pulling the plug on spending then they assume he’s anti-spending.
What we don’t know is if this is his ideology or in fact is it because he things that spending on X isn’t the best use of money so rather than just nod it through he stops it and hopes that if he is PM he can set out a different approach. He might end up being an absolute champion of levelling up however he might be thinking that the way Boris wants to do it is bollocks so he has to stop the usual nightmare where billions get spent preparing a project that won’t really deliver anything when that money could be used better in his “plan”.
We cannot know what his “vision” is until there is some sort of leadership election. At present Boris is the pilot deciding where to point the plane and Sunak is the first engineer (not sure if that’s the right title) who is saying “Captain you can’t fly that fast/low/high because the plane can’t take it”.
At a guess I would think Sunak would be socially liberal, fiscally conservative but pragmatic and see the benefit of targeted investment via levelling up but more forensically than “let’s spend billions on a railroad”. Maybe more of a special investment fund to entice tech companies etc to set up in certain areas.
Remember that although people see him as a public school/Oxford PPE squillionaire he’s come from a background where hard work and opportunity for his parents built the road for him to go to his school, get his job and then hard work made him his money (regardless of his wife’s family wealth) so I think he would be someone who sees the benefits of equal opportunity benefiting everyone rather than being an entitled lazy prick like the incumbent.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
The redacters about to be sent in to do a deep clean?
Apparently it has been said names will be in the report but redacted and sent to the civil service HR departments to deal with under employment law
The PM gets to choose what is published, as is traditional with all independent inquiries.
I can only say what has been reported and no doubt there are HR issues for all those civil servants working at No 10
The government have not committed to publishing the report as presented or in full. It is not just possible redactions of names, but they could exclude whole sections or incriminating emails if they choose to do so.
It is in no sense an independent inquiry.
I have no problem with ordinary civil servants names being redacted and reported to HR
I await the publication of the report with great interest
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
Mike seems to be confused about what the complaint is about - it's not a whip pointing out that if you don't vote we won't do you any favours it's if you don't vote for X we will scrap the school we were planning to build.
And that sort of pork belly politics shouldn't exist in the UK
Too late. The government is already using levelling up money as a Nixonian slush fund. From a year ago:-
On topic, I see the Sunday Times is running three to four days behind the Morning Stodge in its thinking so nothing unusual there.
I suggested a few days ago the new crop of 2019 Conservative MPs were much less ideological than some might have supposed.
You can hardly blame the papers for the delay. It is surely obvious to us all on PB that until you wrote it they had no idea of what to put in this week's edition?
The days of journalism seem to have been replaced with cut 'n' paste ...
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
17,371 people have died from Covid. The rest are with Covid.
By that warped and twisted logic no one ever died of AIDS... I think there is a misunderstanding as to what co morbidities are. Mild diabetes would get on your list, even if appropriately managed.
Applebaum is spinning wildly there. I've been educated on PB to understand the case for weapons to Ukraine better, but it's not disreputable for someone to argue the other way. I very much doubt if China will express an opinion either way.
Hmm. I'm a little more skeptical.
Chinese State Media said: You can also argue the other way: The more weapons, the more killings, the more bloodshed. So Germany is rational to push for more sanity through dialogue and compromise rather than escalation.
I'm not sure of the credibility of the Chinese State arguing for de-escalation, when it is afaics the opposite of the policy pursued by the Chinese State everywhere it is engaged.
Are they encouraging Putin to de-escalate too? He's the one who has invaded and occupied a country, and is applying the pressure for more.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
The redacters about to be sent in to do a deep clean?
She should do that thing where the first letter of each line spells out a message so they can’t redact it without it looking ridiculous….
B O R I S
L I E D
Reminiscent of Robert Harris’s The Ghost.
Or James May being sacked from Autocar. The Prime Minister, as a former motoring correspondent (and guest on Top Gear), will be familiar with this device.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
The redacters about to be sent in to do a deep clean?
Apparently it has been said names will be in the report but redacted and sent to the civil service HR departments to deal with under employment law
The PM gets to choose what is published, as is traditional with all independent inquiries.
I can only say what has been reported and no doubt there are HR issues for all those civil servants working at No 10
The government have not committed to publishing the report as presented or in full. It is not just possible redactions of names, but they could exclude whole sections or incriminating emails if they choose to do so.
It is in no sense an independent inquiry.
Anyone calling the Gray inquiry “independent” is a straightforward liar.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
The redacters about to be sent in to do a deep clean?
Apparently it has been said names will be in the report but redacted and sent to the civil service HR departments to deal with under employment law
The PM gets to choose what is published, as is traditional with all independent inquiries.
I can only say what has been reported and no doubt there are HR issues for all those civil servants working at No 10
The government have not committed to publishing the report as presented or in full. It is not just possible redactions of names, but they could exclude whole sections or incriminating emails if they choose to do so.
It is in no sense an independent inquiry.
Anyone calling the Gray inquiry “independent” is a straightforward liar.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
The redacters about to be sent in to do a deep clean?
Apparently it has been said names will be in the report but redacted and sent to the civil service HR departments to deal with under employment law
The PM gets to choose what is published, as is traditional with all independent inquiries.
I can only say what has been reported and no doubt there are HR issues for all those civil servants working at No 10
The government have not committed to publishing the report as presented or in full. It is not just possible redactions of names, but they could exclude whole sections or incriminating emails if they choose to do so.
It is in no sense an independent inquiry.
I have no problem with ordinary civil servants names being redacted and reported to HR
I await the publication of the report with great interest
That would be fine. I am sure Gray would be better at deciding that than Johnson, so can we agree that Johnson should not have any powers over what is being published, and that the govt should be condemned for wanting powers to edit what they falsely claim is an independent inquiry.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
I see this morning the latest on Ukraine is probably regime change by Russia.
I did wonder how they'd think they could pull off a complete invasion and annexation of the whole country. I don't think Putin wants that. Too much hassle. But maybe regime change, a new 'friendly' government like Belarus or Kazakhstan's. This government is then a puppet of Moscow, and maybe a small border adjustment can be agreed (or none at all) and Russia goes back to doing what the Soviet Union used to do in the Cold War. Lots of eastern european puppet states.
The obvious danger for Russia is keeping these as puppets as the Soviets did have to deal with regular uprisings (Hungary '56, Cze '68 and arguably Poland '81) against Soviet rule. Direct annexation would be better, but might be harder to pull off.
On topic, I see the Sunday Times is running three to four days behind the Morning Stodge in its thinking so nothing unusual there.
I suggested a few days ago the new crop of 2019 Conservative MPs were much less ideological than some might have supposed.
You can hardly blame the papers for the delay. It is surely obvious to us all on PB that until you wrote it they had no idea of what to put in this week's edition?
The days of journalism seem to have been replaced with cut 'n' paste ...
Reporters have been a luxury on newspapers for decades now. Look at your paper, and at each byline. How many stories are by the paper's own reporters, as opposed to columnists or agencies?
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
The redacters about to be sent in to do a deep clean?
Apparently it has been said names will be in the report but redacted and sent to the civil service HR departments to deal with under employment law
The PM gets to choose what is published, as is traditional with all independent inquiries.
I can only say what has been reported and no doubt there are HR issues for all those civil servants working at No 10
The government have not committed to publishing the report as presented or in full. It is not just possible redactions of names, but they could exclude whole sections or incriminating emails if they choose to do so.
It is in no sense an independent inquiry.
I have no problem with ordinary civil servants names being redacted and reported to HR
I await the publication of the report with great interest
That would be fine. I am sure Gray would be better at deciding that than Johnson, so can we agree that Johnson should not have any powers over what is being published, and that the govt should be condemned for wanting powers to edit what they falsely claim is an independent inquiry.
What we agree, and what *should* be the case does not really matter. The government will decide and the Prime Minister is not a disinterested party. Whether it gets leaked in any form is a separate question.
ETA of course I might be wrong. If censorship is too blatant, it might provoke more letter-writers.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
The redacters about to be sent in to do a deep clean?
She should do that thing where the first letter of each line spells out a message so they can’t redact it without it looking ridiculous….
B O R I S
L I E D
Reminiscent of Robert Harris’s The Ghost.
Or James May being sacked from Autocar. The Prime Minister, as a former motoring correspondent (and guest on Top Gear), will be familiar with this device.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
Lol.
‘I have removed all those responsible for the Final Solution unpleasantness, a term which no one told me the meaning of until weeks ago.’
I suppose people were bound to get bored with the "Untergang" meme, but sadly it reflects a fundamental truth about all powerful people, and it's as applicable now as it's ever been.
TSE makes an interesting point about bonding with the whips, and really getting to know them.
A similar aspect would be bonding with other Tory MPs - carousing in the tea rooms for example. If you were a new MP representing a previously Labour seat, how close would you feel to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg? Would you feel any great loyalty towards them?
No.
Another aspect about the new intake is that they will all be familiar with employment in “normal” companies and organisations, where those in charge typically take great care to create a pleasant, constructive working environment. Or at least one that conforms with employment law and minimum standards, eg countering discrimination and bullying.
The Commons isn’t normal. It is a very abnormal working environment, where bullying, intimidation and discrimination are it’s daily meat.
Winnie Ewing blew the whistle on them in the 1960s, but over half a century later, they’re still at it.
If you are conditioned and trained for nasty environments, nasty people and psychological warfare (eg soldiers), then fair enough, you just have to cope. But these people weren’t. Some of them are not coping.
FPTP is at the root of the problem. Total hegemony on a minority of the vote.
Not sure where FPTP comes in but the Commons as toxic workplace rings true.
Worth remembering that the report on bullying in the Commons by Dame Laura Cox was about bullying by MPs of their staff. And MPs have done diddly squat to implement any of its recommendations. So yet more crocodile tears from them when they are on the receiving end. Doesn't make it right, of course, but I'd have a lot more sympathy if they had actually done something about their own appalling behaviour to people much less able than they are to answer back.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
I wonder if the consideration for some is the looming cost of living crisis. Let Johnson take the unpopularity hit for the NI rise/ energy cost increase double whammy, and then replace him in good time for GE 24.
Report this morning that the NI rise was on Boris insistence and Rishi is telling conservative mps he is opposed to it
Oh for God's sake! How pathetic of him. Either he's Chancellor and so fit to take these decisions and, potentially, to lead the country or he's a weakling who can also be bullied. Doesn't he realise that it makes him look like another Tory boss who refuses to take responsibility for his own actions?
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
Had Healey won in 1980 there would have been no SDP and no Alliance. I'm sure Margaret Thatcher would have won in 1983 but not with a 144-seat majority. The Conservative vote share fell 1.5% from 1979 to 1983 even with the "Falklands Factor". Assuming Healey can keep most of the Labour vote that would put Labour at 37-38% so a closer result than 1979.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
I hope if Gray hasn't published by Wednesday that MPs will ignore her and press on anyway.
The big problem is that Gray isn't publishing.
She gives her report to BoZo, who decides what to publish
The redacters about to be sent in to do a deep clean?
She should do that thing where the first letter of each line spells out a message so they can’t redact it without it looking ridiculous….
B O R I S
L I E D
Reminiscent of Robert Harris’s The Ghost.
Or James May being sacked from Autocar. The Prime Minister, as a former motoring correspondent (and guest on Top Gear), will be familiar with this device.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
Mike seems to be confused about what the complaint is about - it's not a whip pointing out that if you don't vote we won't do you any favours it's if you don't vote for X we will scrap the school we were planning to build.
And that sort of pork belly politics shouldn't exist in the UK
Exactly. Whips are the enforcers and everyone accepts that but there are limits on what they can enforce and how.
It seems they may have crossed a line here and it does MF and his Party no good to pretend otherwise.
A bit like very elderly women bemoaning younger women complaining about inappropriate behaviour or sexual assault? I have been told that "In my day men's hands went where they liked and you just had to get used to it"
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Wouldn't Boris make a great Catholic? Break the rules, half hearted apology, sins forgiven, repeat ad infinitum?
Something I always wondered about the whole confession thing; for the true shameless arschloch surely you’d just tell your confessor about a mild case of coveting your neighbour’s ass and ignore the vast festering lagoon of your sin?
If I was starting a religion confession and your sins being absolved is one thing I would definitely copy. A marketeers dream clause. Much better than however many virgins in an after life.
I've sometimes wondered about those virgins. Are they perpetually virgin, or is their virginity capable of being perpetually reinstated?
Apols. to any Muslim reader who is offended.
An emphasis on virginity may be misleading. Purity in a broader sense may be more relevant, or maybe just perpetual beauty. There are diverse views on their nature: are they heavenly beings, or earthly women who have died and gone to heaven? Are they female or can they also be male? Are they only for deceased men, or also for women? Is there sexual intercourse in heaven? Are they spouses or companions?
Some sources say they will be eternally 33 years of age. Their number is unclear. In the West, we often cite 72, but that’s just one interpretation. Other sources say 2 per person.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
17,371 people have died from Covid. The rest are with Covid.
By that warped and twisted logic no one ever died of AIDS... I think there is a misunderstanding as to what co morbidities are. Mild diabetes would get on your list, even if appropriately managed.
Yes. I'm going to do a thread header on this. The idea that 133k Covid deaths have been "with", and when people push the conspiratorial nonsense Andy has alluded to - by "with" meaning 'coincidentally' is proper nonsense of the highest order. I'll do a thread header - but this 17k figure absolute roasters like David Kurten are banding about is very very very misleading
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Caveat: the author evinces hints of anti-vaxxery, and wonders if Omicron Classic, the supposed parent of Omicron OMG, was itself engineered. Nonetheless he makes some good points. If Omicron OMG can keep reinfecting you, even if it is mild, it’s going to cause real problems. Imagine a country where 10% of the workforce is off sick at any one time
The huge surge in cases in Denmark - and now France? - is quite something
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
Mike seems to be confused about what the complaint is about - it's not a whip pointing out that if you don't vote we won't do you any favours it's if you don't vote for X we will scrap the school we were planning to build.
And that sort of pork belly politics shouldn't exist in the UK
Exactly. Whips are the enforcers and everyone accepts that but there are limits on what they can enforce and how.
It seems they may have crossed a line here and it does MF and his Party no good to pretend otherwise.
A bit like very elderly women bemoaning younger women complaining about inappropriate behaviour or sexual assault? I have been told that "In my day men's hands went where they liked and you just had to get used to it"
Some behaviours need calling out and stopping!
A timely reminder that "hands going where they like" is yet another accusation that has been levelled at Boris Johnson. It's so hard to keep up with all the allegations. If you remember the alleged sexual assault you forget the racism. If you remember that he facilitated someone's plan to beat up a guy, you forget that he takes cash from donors for doing up his flat. When you remember the lockdown party you forget him lying to parliament, the Queen, the public, his own ministers, his partners, everyone.
It's functionally impossible to keep track of how unsuitable a person he is to run even a church tombola let alone a country.
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
I have a friend who tried all the way through this pandemic to debunk it. First he told me it spread through the eyes. Then he denied masks work. Then he dissed vaccines. He went down this 'they only die with it' line and said it was a 'casedemic' not a pandemic.
It has been quite sad to witness someone who was once middle of the road and quite sensible join the conspiracy loons. Please don't be one of them.
Excess deaths is the right metric to look at, but some of these excess deaths will be as a consequence of measures occurring to try and control COVID, rather than COVID itself. The problem is that no-one really knows, which can add fuel to conspiracy theories.
My own position is that I accept that there are a significant number of excess deaths resulting from COVID and that, at certain points, exceptional measures including lockdowns have been necessary to reduce the spread of the virus to avoid the healthcare system collapsing. But the situation as a whole does not justify long term encroachments in to personal liberty, or to change the relationship between the state and individual.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
17,371 people have died from Covid. The rest are with Covid.
By that warped and twisted logic no one ever died of AIDS... I think there is a misunderstanding as to what co morbidities are. Mild diabetes would get on your list, even if appropriately managed.
Yes. I'm going to do a thread header on this. The idea that 133k Covid deaths have been "with", and when people push the conspiratorial nonsense Andy has alluded to - by "with" meaning 'coincidentally' is proper nonsense of the highest order. I'll do a thread header - but this 17k figure absolute roasters like David Kurten are banding about is very very very misleading
Please do. People have a very warped sense of how people’s health changes with age. Most people over 60 age on multiple medications, and it mounts the older they get. Yet most of them are relatively healthy, and certainly not just lying in bed waiting for the reapers touch.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Is it a bring-a-bottle War Party at Downing Street, people will ask....
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
17,371 people have died from Covid. The rest are with Covid.
By that warped and twisted logic no one ever died of AIDS... I think there is a misunderstanding as to what co morbidities are. Mild diabetes would get on your list, even if appropriately managed.
Yes. I'm going to do a thread header on this. The idea that 133k Covid deaths have been "with", and when people push the conspiratorial nonsense Andy has alluded to - by "with" meaning 'coincidentally' is proper nonsense of the highest order. I'll do a thread header - but this 17k figure absolute roasters like David Kurten are banding about is very very very misleading
I find the idea of pure separation very difficult to understand, as we've discussed in here that Covids has the habit of making other diseases and hospital interventions much riskier - even something as basic as general anaesthesia. So even if you don't have it when you go into hospital, it's really dangerous to catch it. And that means if you die, it is a significant risk factor in one's demise.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
This to me looks like the heavy hand of Conservative Whips, not Johnson.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
Applebaum is spinning wildly there. I've been educated on PB to understand the case for weapons to Ukraine better, but it's not disreputable for someone to argue the other way. I very much doubt if China will express an opinion either way.
Hmm. I'm a little more skeptical.
Chinese State Media said: You can also argue the other way: The more weapons, the more killings, the more bloodshed. So Germany is rational to push for more sanity through dialogue and compromise rather than escalation.
I'm not sure of the credibility of the Chinese State arguing for de-escalation, when it is afaics the opposite of the policy pursued by the Chinese State everywhere it is engaged.
Are they encouraging Putin to de-escalate too? He's the one who has invaded and occupied a country, and is applying the pressure for more.
They just want to make sure the argument is firmly in place for when they decide to follow Russia's lead and invade Taiwan.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
Mike seems to be confused about what the complaint is about - it's not a whip pointing out that if you don't vote we won't do you any favours it's if you don't vote for X we will scrap the school we were planning to build.
And that sort of pork belly politics shouldn't exist in the UK
Exactly. Whips are the enforcers and everyone accepts that but there are limits on what they can enforce and how.
It seems they may have crossed a line here and it does MF and his Party no good to pretend otherwise.
A bit like very elderly women bemoaning younger women complaining about inappropriate behaviour or sexual assault? I have been told that "In my day men's hands went where they liked and you just had to get used to it"
Some behaviours need calling out and stopping!
A timely reminder that "hands going where they like" is yet another accusation that has been levelled at Boris Johnson. It's so hard to keep up with all the allegations. If you remember the alleged sexual assault you forget the racism. If you remember that he facilitated someone's plan to beat up a guy, you forget that he takes cash from donors for doing up his flat. When you remember the lockdown party you forget him lying to parliament, the Queen, the public, his own ministers, his partners, everyone.
It's functionally impossible to keep track of how unsuitable a person he is to run even a church tombola let alone a country.
You've actually forgotten quite a few things there.
Caveat: the author evinces hints of anti-vaxxery, and wonders if Omicron Classic, the supposed parent of Omicron OMG, was itself engineered. Nonetheless he makes some good points. If Omicron OMG can keep reinfecting you, even if it is mild, it’s going to cause real problems. Imagine a country where 10% of the workforce is off sick at any one time
The huge surge in cases in Denmark - and now France? - is quite something
France has had this surge on since Omicron, it's a function of lesser natural immunity and similar vaccine immunity overall. I expect Denmark will have the same issues. Our adult population is ca. 90% double vaxxed and 70% triple vaxxed and we've had something like 20m infections in the last 6 months. It's probably one of the best immunity profiles in the world and why the UK is probably a bit more resilient to any new variant or subvariant. Even with Omicron the hospitalisation rate looks like it peaked at about 900-1200 per day non-incidental in England.
Europe made a huge error in not reopening fully and letting the virus let rip in the summer, this is the result. Stupidly New Zealand is about the make the same error.
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
This to me looks like the heavy hand of Conservative Whips, not Johnson.
Seriously? Who do whips take their orders from?
Also
"My old friend Christopher Bland, when chairman of the BBC, once described to me how he received an angry phone call from Johnson, denouncing the corporation’s “gross intrusion upon my personal life” for its coverage of one of his love affairs.
“We know plenty about your personal life that you would not like to read in the Spectator,” the then editor of the magazine told the BBC’s chairman, while demanding he order the broadcaster to lay off his own dalliances.
Bland told me he replied: “Boris, think about what you have just said. There is a word for it, and it is not a pretty one.”
He said Johnson blustered into retreat, but in my own files I have handwritten notes from our possible next prime minister, threatening dire consequences in print if I continued to criticise him."
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
You completely missed my point in my (full) post.
I think they worked wonders in the first phase of the pandemic, when we had no good drugs or vaccines, utilising their isolation to brilliant effect. I don't think this strategy was ever available to the UK.
They just haven't had the mental agility to transition from the zero-covid strategy to the endemic approach that inevitably follows.
I think it's still a little bit too early to say what the optimal strategy for omicron is. The benefit of continuing the zero-covid strategy is that if it fails you can fall back on the endemic strategy, whereas if you try an endemic strategy then it turns out it's a bad idea there's no way back to a zero-covid strategy.
Japan is in the same situation, I expect containment will fail but in the meantime it's not remotely as damaging as the damage the UK has already taken doing the opposite, and even if it fails there's something to be said for delaying down the failure for a month or so.
As ever the question (frequently unanswered) is “what do you do with that month”? In Japan’s case “waiting for milder weather” is one thing that might help. In New Zealand it’s the reverse.
Yes, the reverse seasonality of her strategy is baffling.
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
One thing that struck me in the Dan Hodges Mail article was this line:
"But any hopes within No 10 that this provided evidence of the Chancellor’s loyalty were misplaced. Within hours Tricky Rishi was holding meetings with leading rebels, who set out their terms for backing him in any leadership contest."
If Rishi starts to get the reputation (?) for being slippery and not to be trusted, it;s potentially very damaging. It doesn't sound as though he convinced many of the Red Wall MPs he would follow through on more funding for the RW.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Is it a bring-a-bottle War Party at Downing Street, people will ask....
The situation on the border between Belarus and Ukraine is grave. Johnson merely has to indicate his and our stoicism in order to expunge the memory of any bottles. Focusing the mind from trivia onto more concerning issues.
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
This to me looks like the heavy hand of Conservative Whips, not Johnson.
This to me looks like the heavy hand of the street soldiers, not Don Corleone.
That Ardern is having to cancel her own wedding two years into the pandemic, with the availability of 90%+ effective vaccines, indicates a massive failure of policy, IMO.
On the other hand, they haven't witnessed 150,000 people die of covid
17,371 people have died from Covid. The rest are with Covid.
By that warped and twisted logic no one ever died of AIDS... I think there is a misunderstanding as to what co morbidities are. Mild diabetes would get on your list, even if appropriately managed.
Yes. I'm going to do a thread header on this. The idea that 133k Covid deaths have been "with", and when people push the conspiratorial nonsense Andy has alluded to - by "with" meaning 'coincidentally' is proper nonsense of the highest order. I'll do a thread header - but this 17k figure absolute roasters like David Kurten are banding about is very very very misleading
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
Mike seems to be confused about what the complaint is about - it's not a whip pointing out that if you don't vote we won't do you any favours it's if you don't vote for X we will scrap the school we were planning to build.
And that sort of pork belly politics shouldn't exist in the UK
Exactly. Whips are the enforcers and everyone accepts that but there are limits on what they can enforce and how.
It seems they may have crossed a line here and it does MF and his Party no good to pretend otherwise.
A bit like very elderly women bemoaning younger women complaining about inappropriate behaviour or sexual assault? I have been told that "In my day men's hands went where they liked and you just had to get used to it"
Some behaviours need calling out and stopping!
A timely reminder that "hands going where they like" is yet another accusation that has been levelled at Boris Johnson. It's so hard to keep up with all the allegations. If you remember the alleged sexual assault you forget the racism. If you remember that he facilitated someone's plan to beat up a guy, you forget that he takes cash from donors for doing up his flat. When you remember the lockdown party you forget him lying to parliament, the Queen, the public, his own ministers, his partners, everyone.
It's functionally impossible to keep track of how unsuitable a person he is to run even a church tombola let alone a country.
You've actually forgotten quite a few things there.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
Thatcher had to sent ships and troops to the south Atlantic to get her poll boost.
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
One thing that struck me in the Dan Hodges Mail article was this line:
"But any hopes within No 10 that this provided evidence of the Chancellor’s loyalty were misplaced. Within hours Tricky Rishi was holding meetings with leading rebels, who set out their terms for backing him in any leadership contest."
If Rishi starts to get the reputation (?) for being slippery and not to be trusted, it;s potentially very damaging. It doesn't sound as though he convinced many of the Red Wall MPs he would follow through on more funding for the RW.
Yeah I sort of see your point but at this stage of proceedings there is always duplicity from the wannabes. Conversely if he was sitting on his arse doing nothing you'd think Doesn't really want the job, or is so bad at advancing his own interests how would one expect him to advance those of the country?
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
This to me looks like the heavy hand of Conservative Whips, not Johnson.
Seriously? Who do whips take their orders from?
Also
"My old friend Christopher Bland, when chairman of the BBC, once described to me how he received an angry phone call from Johnson, denouncing the corporation’s “gross intrusion upon my personal life” for its coverage of one of his love affairs.
“We know plenty about your personal life that you would not like to read in the Spectator,” the then editor of the magazine told the BBC’s chairman, while demanding he order the broadcaster to lay off his own dalliances.
Bland told me he replied: “Boris, think about what you have just said. There is a word for it, and it is not a pretty one.”
He said Johnson blustered into retreat, but in my own files I have handwritten notes from our possible next prime minister, threatening dire consequences in print if I continued to criticise him."
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
This to me looks like the heavy hand of Conservative Whips, not Johnson.
Seriously? Who do whips take their orders from?
Also
"My old friend Christopher Bland, when chairman of the BBC, once described to me how he received an angry phone call from Johnson, denouncing the corporation’s “gross intrusion upon my personal life” for its coverage of one of his love affairs.
“We know plenty about your personal life that you would not like to read in the Spectator,” the then editor of the magazine told the BBC’s chairman, while demanding he order the broadcaster to lay off his own dalliances.
Bland told me he replied: “Boris, think about what you have just said. There is a word for it, and it is not a pretty one.”
He said Johnson blustered into retreat, but in my own files I have handwritten notes from our possible next prime minister, threatening dire consequences in print if I continued to criticise him."
As @Farooq observes downthread, Johnson has form for bloody everything
I don't disagree with any of that, but for the majority of those who voted Conservative in 2019 expressly to see PM Johnson his hands will remain clean.
As all around him collapses to dust he stands straight and true.
...one former Cabinet Minister told me: ‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
Shout out to Fabricant too
If I reported every time I had been threatened by a Whip or if a Whip reported every time I had threatened them, the police wouldn’t have any time to conduct any other police work! What nonsense from WW.
It is late April 1945, and people are theorising about the Fuhrer relaunching himself after the May locals.
Mike seems to be confused about what the complaint is about - it's not a whip pointing out that if you don't vote we won't do you any favours it's if you don't vote for X we will scrap the school we were planning to build.
And that sort of pork belly politics shouldn't exist in the UK
Exactly. Whips are the enforcers and everyone accepts that but there are limits on what they can enforce and how.
It seems they may have crossed a line here and it does MF and his Party no good to pretend otherwise.
A bit like very elderly women bemoaning younger women complaining about inappropriate behaviour or sexual assault? I have been told that "In my day men's hands went where they liked and you just had to get used to it"
Some behaviours need calling out and stopping!
A timely reminder that "hands going where they like" is yet another accusation that has been levelled at Boris Johnson. It's so hard to keep up with all the allegations. If you remember the alleged sexual assault you forget the racism. If you remember that he facilitated someone's plan to beat up a guy, you forget that he takes cash from donors for doing up his flat. When you remember the lockdown party you forget him lying to parliament, the Queen, the public, his own ministers, his partners, everyone.
It's functionally impossible to keep track of how unsuitable a person he is to run even a church tombola let alone a country.
It's quite sad, when one used to make (imo extremely warranted) comparisons between BJ and Trump you used to get outraged Boris defenders rallying to the standard, now nary a squeak.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
He would face the same problem with this as several that he has had in the abence of Trump, the ally he expected to be by his side. While Trump might have tolerated some vague freewheeling in this vein, although obviously less exaggerated, under Biden it would just take a few quick furious phone calls threatening defence and intelligence co-operation in the future to throw it all immediately into reverse and back to bed.
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
One thing that struck me in the Dan Hodges Mail article was this line:
"But any hopes within No 10 that this provided evidence of the Chancellor’s loyalty were misplaced. Within hours Tricky Rishi was holding meetings with leading rebels, who set out their terms for backing him in any leadership contest."
If Rishi starts to get the reputation (?) for being slippery and not to be trusted, it;s potentially very damaging. It doesn't sound as though he convinced many of the Red Wall MPs he would follow through on more funding for the RW.
You are forgetting - Rishi has a northern seat. Boris does not.
I wonder whether there will be, around next weekend, a Prime Ministerial broadcast to the nation, in which he tells the nation, very, very sadly, that he, and we, the people have been deceived and betrayed by people whom he thought he could, and told us that we could, trust. Sue Gray has highlighted who these people are, and, if they can be dismissed, they have been. Very regrettably several Members of Parliament are among them and they no longer hold the Government posts which they once did. He has been working tirelessly since reading Sue's report to replace them, as aides, as civil servants and as Ministers, and he promises that the 2022 Downing Street will be a different place from what it was.
And in one massive wriggle the greased piglet twists free.
This is why it is up to the MPs to find the nerve to plunge the knife in! I wonder what it is that they are do afraid of? Or do they not just give a monkeys?
That Andrew Rawnsley article quoted upthread says that loads of Tory MPs are high irritated yet 15% do not have the nerve to anonymously send in a letter to end this farce?
Something is not right
I wonder if the consideration for some is the looming cost of living crisis. Let Johnson take the unpopularity hit for the NI rise/ energy cost increase double whammy, and then replace him in good time for GE 24.
Also, "wait for the report" is quite a natural position. It's coming shortly, and if they rush out with a VONC first then loyalists will say the critics don't care about the evidence. I expect quite a few letters to go in if the report is even moderately hostile.
Do we know exactly how the publication of a summary is supposed to work? Presumably not like those theatre adverts that only quote the one positive feature of the play. Will the author get a say in what's published? I'd be tempted in her place to write a section called SUMMARY myself, and dare the Government not to use it.
We already know it only goes to the accused and as he is well known as a wrong un the best we can hope for is a few minion's in the civil service getting the push. You don't get results when you ask the poacher to be your gamekeeper. Whitewash coming soon.
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
This to me looks like the heavy hand of Conservative Whips, not Johnson.
Seriously? Who do whips take their orders from?
Also
"My old friend Christopher Bland, when chairman of the BBC, once described to me how he received an angry phone call from Johnson, denouncing the corporation’s “gross intrusion upon my personal life” for its coverage of one of his love affairs.
“We know plenty about your personal life that you would not like to read in the Spectator,” the then editor of the magazine told the BBC’s chairman, while demanding he order the broadcaster to lay off his own dalliances.
Bland told me he replied: “Boris, think about what you have just said. There is a word for it, and it is not a pretty one.”
He said Johnson blustered into retreat, but in my own files I have handwritten notes from our possible next prime minister, threatening dire consequences in print if I continued to criticise him."
As @Farooq observes downthread, Johnson has form for bloody everything
I don't disagree with any of that, but for the majority of those who voted Conservative in 2019 expressly to see PM Johnson his hands will remain clean.
As all around him collapses to dust he stands straight and true.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
Had Healey won in 1980 there would have been no SDP and no Alliance. I'm sure Margaret Thatcher would have won in 1983 but not with a 144-seat majority. The Conservative vote share fell 1.5% from 1979 to 1983 even with the "Falklands Factor". Assuming Healey can keep most of the Labour vote that would put Labour at 37-38% so a closer result than 1979.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
One reason for the 2015 manifesto promise of a referendum was that few people expect Cameron to win a majority, most Tory leadership expected a second coalition with the Lib Dems with the referendum dropped as one of the first compromises.
That doesn't however explain the completely incompetent remain campaign that did nearly as much to lose the referendum as leave did to win it.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
Thatcher had to sent ships and troops to the south Atlantic to get her poll boost.
The odds were at worst 50:50 for Mrs Thatch, and she was already on a hiding to nothing over the Falklands.
Johnson only has to buy himself time with rhetoric.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
If Boris is going to go to war with anyone for a poll bounce it would be a tiny country easy to beat.
Boris is not so stupid as to go to war with Russia alone without the rest of NATO with him
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
He would face the same problem with this as several that he has had in the abence of Trump, the ally he expected to be by his side. While Trump might have tolerated some vague freewheeling in this vein, although obviously less exaggerated, under Biden it would just take a few quick furious phone calls threatening defence and intelligence co-operation in the future to throw it all immediately into reverse and back to bed.
I had London Bridge down as a potential booster for him, massive opp for faux Churchillian posturing, but May 20 takes that off the table.
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
This to me looks like the heavy hand of Conservative Whips, not Johnson.
Seriously? Who do whips take their orders from?
Also
"My old friend Christopher Bland, when chairman of the BBC, once described to me how he received an angry phone call from Johnson, denouncing the corporation’s “gross intrusion upon my personal life” for its coverage of one of his love affairs.
“We know plenty about your personal life that you would not like to read in the Spectator,” the then editor of the magazine told the BBC’s chairman, while demanding he order the broadcaster to lay off his own dalliances.
Bland told me he replied: “Boris, think about what you have just said. There is a word for it, and it is not a pretty one.”
He said Johnson blustered into retreat, but in my own files I have handwritten notes from our possible next prime minister, threatening dire consequences in print if I continued to criticise him."
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
If Boris is going to go to war with anyone for a poll bounce it would be a tiny country easy to beat.
Boris is not so stupid as to go to war with Russia alone without the rest of NATO with him
A false flag secessionist takeover of Gibraltar and subsequent recapture would be about right.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
If Boris is going to go to war with anyone for a poll bounce it would be a tiny country easy to beat.
Boris is not so stupid as to go to war with Russia alone without the rest of NATO with him
Going to war would be counterproductive. He just needs to rattle sabres this week to detract from Gray. I am just suggesting that to bolster the gesture he does something big
Isn't it a given in modern warfare that you must knock out the enemy's air force and defensive capability from above before committing troops on the ground? Otherwise an infantry advance is a massive gamble. Mustering an army on the border is one thing, but Putin would need to launch an air attack before deploying them. That's why Biden's "Small Incursion Theory" does not compute.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
If Boris is going to go to war with anyone for a poll bounce it would be a tiny country easy to beat.
Boris is not so stupid as to go to war with Russia alone without the rest of NATO with him
A false flag secessionist takeover of Gibraltar and subsequent recapture would be about right.
Secessionist? Gib? That's about as credible as Epping seceding from the Union. Who are they going to get to do the false flag, the apes?
German naval chief: "we need Russia because we need Russia against China...From my perspective, I’m a very radical Roman Catholic. I’m believing in God & I believe in Christianity. & there we have a Christian country; even Putin, he’s an atheist but it doesn't matter"
Wouldn't Boris make a great Catholic? Break the rules, half hearted apology, sins forgiven, repeat ad infinitum?
Something I always wondered about the whole confession thing; for the true shameless arschloch surely you’d just tell your confessor about a mild case of coveting your neighbour’s ass and ignore the vast festering lagoon of your sin?
If I was starting a religion confession and your sins being absolved is one thing I would definitely copy. A marketeers dream clause. Much better than however many virgins in an after life.
I've sometimes wondered about those virgins. Are they perpetually virgin, or is their virginity capable of being perpetually reinstated?
Apols. to any Muslim reader who is offended.
An emphasis on virginity may be misleading. Purity in a broader sense may be more relevant, or maybe just perpetual beauty. There are diverse views on their nature: are they heavenly beings, or earthly women who have died and gone to heaven? Are they female or can they also be male? Are they only for deceased men, or also for women? Is there sexual intercourse in heaven? Are they spouses or companions?
Some sources say they will be eternally 33 years of age. Their number is unclear. In the West, we often cite 72, but that’s just one interpretation. Other sources say 2 per person.
If you have ever seen the Billy Connolly piece on this you will know all the best jokes. I think YouTube took it down because of its extreme political correctness....or maybe it was just too funny:
"Seventy two? You have the impression there was a committee involved there."
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
If Boris is going to go to war with anyone for a poll bounce it would be a tiny country easy to beat.
Boris is not so stupid as to go to war with Russia alone without the rest of NATO with him
A false flag secessionist takeover of Gibraltar and subsequent recapture would be about right.
Our army and navy and airforce is certainly still bigger than Spain's unlike Russia's. As a historian Boris will also be aware a war fought in the Russian winter is not a good prospect, it even defeated Hitler and Napoleon. A war in the Mediterranean in winter less of a problem.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
Had Healey won in 1980 there would have been no SDP and no Alliance. I'm sure Margaret Thatcher would have won in 1983 but not with a 144-seat majority. The Conservative vote share fell 1.5% from 1979 to 1983 even with the "Falklands Factor". Assuming Healey can keep most of the Labour vote that would put Labour at 37-38% so a closer result than 1979.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
The broader point is that elections are almost always won from the centre, and so going to the extremes reduces your chances
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
If Boris is going to go to war with anyone for a poll bounce it would be a tiny country easy to beat.
Boris is not so stupid as to go to war with Russia alone without the rest of NATO with him
A false flag secessionist takeover of Gibraltar and subsequent recapture would be about right.
Secessionist? Gib? That's about as credible as Epping seceding from the Union. Who are they going to get to do the false flag, the apes?
polls in Gibraltar usually only show about 98 - 99% in favour of the status quo. Hotbed of dissent.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
Had Healey won in 1980 there would have been no SDP and no Alliance. I'm sure Margaret Thatcher would have won in 1983 but not with a 144-seat majority. The Conservative vote share fell 1.5% from 1979 to 1983 even with the "Falklands Factor". Assuming Healey can keep most of the Labour vote that would put Labour at 37-38% so a closer result than 1979.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
One reason for the 2015 manifesto promise of a referendum was that few people expect Cameron to win a majority, most Tory leadership expected a second coalition with the Lib Dems with the referendum dropped as one of the first compromises.
That doesn't however explain the completely incompetent remain campaign that did nearly as much to lose the referendum as leave did to win it.
Arguably Labour electing Ed Miliband not David Miliband in 2010 meant Cameron got a majority in 2015 and ended the Coalition leading to the EU referendum. Labour then electing Corbyn over Burnham in 2015 meant May risked an election in 2017, lost her majority and forced the Tories to make Boris their leader.
So arguably the ultimate blame for Brexit and Boris lies with Labour Party members
The Nus Ghani allegations are appalling, if not exactly surprising.
Boris has completely screwed up the party for a generation, I suspect. The culture of bullying, nastiness, insouciance of the rules, arrogance, and incompetence will years to sort out, and I don't think voters are going to forgive the Tories for a long time. Eventually some future David Cameron may emerge and take the party through all the detoxification again, but it could be a long wait. And that's without even taking into account the multiple crises coming (NHS backlog, care for elderly crisis, cost of living, justice system backlogs, Brexit damage to the economy...). Some of those are admittedly not entirely the government's fault, but it will get the blame all the same.
Good on those Tory MPs (including, if the reports are true, our very own member for Newcastle under Lyme) who have grasped the nettle. Getting rid of Boris is the indispensable first step for improving things, both for the party and, more importantly, the country, but it will be only the first step.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
Had Healey won in 1980 there would have been no SDP and no Alliance. I'm sure Margaret Thatcher would have won in 1983 but not with a 144-seat majority. The Conservative vote share fell 1.5% from 1979 to 1983 even with the "Falklands Factor". Assuming Healey can keep most of the Labour vote that would put Labour at 37-38% so a closer result than 1979.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
The broader point is that elections are almost always won from the centre, and so going to the extremes reduces your chances
I'm not sure I agree there. Certainly not in 2019, 1979 or even arguably 1945. These were possibly the three most decisive and important elections of the last seventy five years - the jury is still out on 2019, obviously - and I wouldn't say any of the three look like centrist victories , to me.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
If Boris is going to go to war with anyone for a poll bounce it would be a tiny country easy to beat.
Boris is not so stupid as to go to war with Russia alone without the rest of NATO with him
Indeed he is not. Sabre rattling however would help relieve his domestic troubles without a downside.
Boris has belatedly read the articles about how threatening civil servants was likely to loosen tongues, so he is now trying to buy them off with promises of jam tomorrow.
The Nus Ghani allegations are appalling, if not exactly surprising.
Boris has completely screwed up the party for a generation, I suspect. The culture of bullying, nastiness, insouciance of the rules, arrogance, and incompetence will years to sort out, and I don't think voters are going to forgive the Tories for a long time. Eventually some future David Cameron may emerge and take the party through all the detoxification again, but it could be a long wait. And that's without even taking into account the multiple crises coming (NHS backlog, care for elderly crisis, cost of living, justice system backlogs, Brexit damage to the economy...). Some of those are admittedly not entirely the government's fault, but it will get the blame all the same.
Good on those Tory MPs (including, if the reports are true, our very own member for Newcastle under Lyme) who have grasped the nettle. Getting rid of Boris is the indispensable first step for improving things, both for the party and, more importantly, the country, but it will be only the first step.
Most parties lose after 10 years in power and are out for a generation anyway.
The only recent exceptions 1992 but Major had a big policy difference with Thatcher over the poll tax and the 1970s when we changed government 3 times but then the economy was in chaos
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
One thing that struck me in the Dan Hodges Mail article was this line:
"But any hopes within No 10 that this provided evidence of the Chancellor’s loyalty were misplaced. Within hours Tricky Rishi was holding meetings with leading rebels, who set out their terms for backing him in any leadership contest."
If Rishi starts to get the reputation (?) for being slippery and not to be trusted, it;s potentially very damaging. It doesn't sound as though he convinced many of the Red Wall MPs he would follow through on more funding for the RW.
I wouldn't trust Sunak one iota but I feel that about anyone who worked at the hedge fund he was at.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
Had Healey won in 1980 there would have been no SDP and no Alliance. I'm sure Margaret Thatcher would have won in 1983 but not with a 144-seat majority. The Conservative vote share fell 1.5% from 1979 to 1983 even with the "Falklands Factor". Assuming Healey can keep most of the Labour vote that would put Labour at 37-38% so a closer result than 1979.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
The broader point is that elections are almost always won from the centre, and so going to the extremes reduces your chances
Occasionally though it pays off, as when the Tories replaced Heath with Thatcher in 1975 after defeat in 1974 and she beat Callaghan in 1979
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
If Boris is going to go to war with anyone for a poll bounce it would be a tiny country easy to beat.
Boris is not so stupid as to go to war with Russia alone without the rest of NATO with him
A false flag secessionist takeover of Gibraltar and subsequent recapture would be about right.
Our army and navy and airforce is certainly still bigger than Spain's unlike Russia's. As a historian Boris will also be aware a war fought in the Russian winter is not a good prospect, it even defeated Hitler and Napoleon. A war in the Mediterranean in winter less of a problem.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
He would face the same problem with this as several that he has had in the abence of Trump, the ally he expected to be by his side. While Trump might have tolerated some vague freewheeling in this vein, although obviously less exaggerated, under Biden it would just take a few quick furious phone calls threatening defence and intelligence co-operation in the future to throw it all immediately into reverse and back to bed.
I had London Bridge down as a potential booster for him, massive opp for faux Churchillian posturing, but May 20 takes that off the table.
Well he tried transmitting his contagious Covid19 germs to London Bridge, but fortunately she was far too resilient.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
Thatcher had to sent ships and troops to the south Atlantic to get her poll boost.
The comparison doesn't really work. Whether or not you agree with us being in charge of a bit of rock 8000 miles away, the fact remains that it was British sovereign territory that was invaded.
I think it's probably time to be a bolder in what I state: next-to-no-one in Britain really cares about the Ukraine. Sorry, I know it's bad in theory but they don't. Just as they don't really care about Taiwan.
They will only care if we're stupid enough to get involved and British service personnel start returning in body bags. Viz. Afghanistan.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, .
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
He would face the same problem with this as several that he has had in the abence of Trump, the ally he expected to be by his side. While Trump might have tolerated some vague freewheeling in this vein, although obviously less exaggerated, under Biden it would just take a few quick furious phone calls threatening defence and intelligence co-operation in the future to throw it all immediately into reverse and back to bed.
I had London Bridge down as a potential booster for him, massive opp for faux Churchillian posturing, but May 20 takes that off the table.
Well he tried transmitting his contagious Covid19 germs to London Bridge, but fortunately she was far too resilient.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
Had Healey won in 1980 there would have been no SDP and no Alliance. I'm sure Margaret Thatcher would have won in 1983 but not with a 144-seat majority. The Conservative vote share fell 1.5% from 1979 to 1983 even with the "Falklands Factor". Assuming Healey can keep most of the Labour vote that would put Labour at 37-38% so a closer result than 1979.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
The broader point is that elections are almost always won from the centre, and so going to the extremes reduces your chances
Occasionally though it pays off, as when the Tories replaced Heath with Thatcher in 1975 after defeat in 1974 and she beat Callaghan in 1979
And I'm sure the tories would have lost in 1992 if they hadn't replaced Maggie with Major. Major was sufficiently new on the scene and sufficiently 'of the people' to staunch the wound that Maggie inflicted in her latter days.
The Nus Ghani allegations are appalling, if not exactly surprising.
Boris has completely screwed up the party for a generation, I suspect. The culture of bullying, nastiness, insouciance of the rules, arrogance, and incompetence will years to sort out, and I don't think voters are going to forgive the Tories for a long time. Eventually some future David Cameron may emerge and take the party through all the detoxification again, but it could be a long wait. And that's without even taking into account the multiple crises coming (NHS backlog, care for elderly crisis, cost of living, justice system backlogs, Brexit damage to the economy...). Some of those are admittedly not entirely the government's fault, but it will get the blame all the same.
Good on those Tory MPs (including, if the reports are true, our very own member for Newcastle under Lyme) who have grasped the nettle. Getting rid of Boris is the indispensable first step for improving things, both for the party and, more importantly, the country, but it will be only the first step.
Most parties lose after 10 years in power and are out for a generation anyway.
The only recent exceptions 1992 but Major had a big policy difference with Thatcher over the poll tax and the 1970s when we changed government 3 times but then the economy was in chaos
A strange paradox about 1997 was that the Conservatives bequeathed to New Labour an economy in rude health. There was nothing wrong with the economy to make people vote against the status quo.
But the damage was already done five years earlier on Black Wednesday and the subsequent sleaze and in-fighting.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
Had Healey won in 1980 there would have been no SDP and no Alliance. I'm sure Margaret Thatcher would have won in 1983 but not with a 144-seat majority. The Conservative vote share fell 1.5% from 1979 to 1983 even with the "Falklands Factor". Assuming Healey can keep most of the Labour vote that would put Labour at 37-38% so a closer result than 1979.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
One reason for the 2015 manifesto promise of a referendum was that few people expect Cameron to win a majority, most Tory leadership expected a second coalition with the Lib Dems with the referendum dropped as one of the first compromises.
That doesn't however explain the completely incompetent remain campaign that did nearly as much to lose the referendum as leave did to win it.
Arguably Labour electing Ed Miliband not David Miliband in 2010 meant Cameron got a majority in 2015 and ended the Coalition leading to the EU referendum. Labour then electing Corbyn over Burnham in 2015 meant May risked an election in 2017, lost her majority and forced the Tories to make Boris their leader.
So arguably the ultimate blame for Brexit and Boris lies with Labour Party members
They certainly played their part but are a fair way down the list when the show trials start.
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
One thing that struck me in the Dan Hodges Mail article was this line:
"But any hopes within No 10 that this provided evidence of the Chancellor’s loyalty were misplaced. Within hours Tricky Rishi was holding meetings with leading rebels, who set out their terms for backing him in any leadership contest."
If Rishi starts to get the reputation (?) for being slippery and not to be trusted, it;s potentially very damaging. It doesn't sound as though he convinced many of the Red Wall MPs he would follow through on more funding for the RW.
I wouldn't trust Sunak one iota but I feel that about anyone who worked at the hedge fund he was at.
Ms Cyclefree - you have mentioned a few times that you have an issue with the hedge fund Sunak worked for and that you do not trust him. Please could you expand on this as it’s not clear if you are saying there was some sort of illegality or just sharp practice - obviously there is plain illegality at one end of the spectrum and things that aren’t great morally but perfectly legal at the other.
I think if you are going to cast shade on Sunak by virtue of his work history it’s only fair to make it clear if it’s something he has done, something in the culture of his employers and if legal or not.
I could be being very naive but I don’t really understand why, if there are skeletons in his closet, they haven’t been thrown out there either by Boris and outriders, rivals or by the guardian in a deep reporting exposé so think if someone is hinting at this then would only be fair to back it up and explain why you hint at dark issues or alternatively not hint at them unless they can be backed up?
If you are right then it’s important that people know this but if you aren’t then it’s also not right to cast shade.
I have been working out ways that Johnson survives. Here is my most ludicrous, but it could work
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
Ten point poll lead as thousands of body bags arrive in England?
He doesn't have to send any troops. The demonstration of his Churchillian resolve would be enough. Sending troops would be foolhardy.
Thatcher had to sent ships and troops to the south Atlantic to get her poll boost.
The comparison doesn't really work. Whether or not you agree with us being in charge of a bit of rock 8000 miles away, the fact remains that it was British sovereign territory that was invaded.
I think it's probably time to be a bolder in what I state: next-to-no-one in Britain really cares about the Ukraine. Sorry, I know it's bad in theory but they don't. Just as they don't really care about Taiwan.
They will only care if we're stupid enough to get involved and British service personnel start returning in body bags. Viz. Afghanistan.
Opinions can change quickly. In April* 1982, 39% of people thought the Falklands situation was the most important issue facing the country, exactly equal with unemployment. Three weeks later "Falklands" was up to 61% and "Unemployment" was down to 25%.
France has had this surge on since Omicron, it's a function of lesser natural immunity and similar vaccine immunity overall. I expect Denmark will have the same issues. Our adult population is ca. 90% double vaxxed and 70% triple vaxxed and we've had something like 20m infections in the last 6 months. It's probably one of the best immunity profiles in the world and why the UK is probably a bit more resilient to any new variant or subvariant. Even with Omicron the hospitalisation rate looks like it peaked at about 900-1200 per day non-incidental in England.
Europe made a huge error in not reopening fully and letting the virus let rip in the summer, this is the result. Stupidly New Zealand is about the make the same error.
According to the UKHSA blood survey the UK had 98% of adults with antibodies, and that was months ago. There are very few people in the UK who are both unvaccinated and have never had a covid infection. Unless some sort of super-vaccine comes out this is about as good as it can get.
Does it? It might have made the defeat worse but had Healey won the Labour leadership in 1980 not Foot would he have beaten Thatcher in 1983? I doubt it. Had Clarke beaten Hague for the Tory leadership in 1997 would he have beaten Blair in 2001? I doubt it. Had David Miliband beaten Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership in 2010 would he have beaten Cameron in 2015? I doubt it, though he might have prevented a Tory majority and just seen Cameron win most seats again.
Had Healey won in 1980 there would have been no SDP and no Alliance. I'm sure Margaret Thatcher would have won in 1983 but not with a 144-seat majority. The Conservative vote share fell 1.5% from 1979 to 1983 even with the "Falklands Factor". Assuming Healey can keep most of the Labour vote that would put Labour at 37-38% so a closer result than 1979.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
One reason for the 2015 manifesto promise of a referendum was that few people expect Cameron to win a majority, most Tory leadership expected a second coalition with the Lib Dems with the referendum dropped as one of the first compromises.
That doesn't however explain the completely incompetent remain campaign that did nearly as much to lose the referendum as leave did to win it.
Arguably Labour electing Ed Miliband not David Miliband in 2010 meant Cameron got a majority in 2015 and ended the Coalition leading to the EU referendum. Labour then electing Corbyn over Burnham in 2015 meant May risked an election in 2017, lost her majority and forced the Tories to make Boris their leader.
So arguably the ultimate blame for Brexit and Boris lies with Labour Party members
Problem with that analysis is that I think Johnson could have become PM eventually anyway even if Remain had narrowly won the referendum.
In a way the 2017 result was a poisoned chalice for Labour and it would have been better in hindsight if Theresa May had won a dozen more seats in 2017 and Corbyn had stood down while earning some credit for 20+ odd gains.
I also believe 2015 was unwinnable for Labour because of UKIP/SNP/Brexit etc although Yvette Cooper might have been a slightly better leader than Miliband if Ed Balls had lost in 2010.
I don't think David Miliband would have beaten Cameron in 2015. People forget how associated he was with some of the low points of the New Labour era, which people were then still extremely fed up with.
Comments
And that sort of pork belly politics shouldn't exist in the UK
It is in no sense an independent inquiry.
It seems they may have crossed a line here and it does MF and his Party no good to pretend otherwise.
What we don’t know is if this is his ideology or in fact is it because he things that spending on X isn’t the best use of money so rather than just nod it through he stops it and hopes that if he is PM he can set out a different approach. He might end up being an absolute champion of levelling up however he might be thinking that the way Boris wants to do it is bollocks so he has to stop the usual nightmare where billions get spent preparing a project that won’t really deliver anything when that money could be used better in his “plan”.
We cannot know what his “vision” is until there is some sort of leadership election. At present Boris is the pilot deciding where to point the plane and Sunak is the first engineer (not sure if that’s the right title) who is saying “Captain you can’t fly that fast/low/high because the plane can’t take it”.
At a guess I would think Sunak would be socially liberal, fiscally conservative but pragmatic and see the benefit of targeted investment via levelling up but more forensically than “let’s spend billions on a railroad”. Maybe more of a special investment fund to entice tech companies etc to set up in certain areas.
Remember that although people see him as a public school/Oxford PPE squillionaire he’s come from a background where hard work and opportunity for his parents built the road for him to go to his school, get his job and then hard work made him his money (regardless of his wife’s family wealth) so I think he would be someone who sees the benefits of equal opportunity benefiting everyone rather than being an entitled lazy prick like the incumbent.
I await the publication of the report with great interest
Levelling Up Fund bias in favour of Tory seats ‘pretty blatant’
https://www.ft.com/content/d485da2a-5778-45ae-9fa8-ca024bc8bbcf
The days of journalism seem to have been replaced with cut 'n' paste ...
I think there is a misunderstanding as to what co morbidities are. Mild diabetes would get on your list, even if appropriately managed.
Chinese State Media said:
You can also argue the other way: The more weapons, the more killings, the more bloodshed. So Germany is rational to push for more sanity through dialogue and compromise rather than escalation.
I'm not sure of the credibility of the Chinese State arguing for de-escalation, when it is afaics the opposite of the policy pursued by the Chinese State everywhere it is engaged.
Are they encouraging Putin to de-escalate too? He's the one who has invaded and occupied a country, and is applying the pressure for more.
I did wonder how they'd think they could pull off a complete invasion and annexation of the whole country. I don't think Putin wants that. Too much hassle. But maybe regime change, a new 'friendly' government like Belarus or Kazakhstan's. This government is then a puppet of Moscow, and maybe a small border adjustment can be agreed (or none at all) and Russia goes back to doing what the Soviet Union used to do in the Cold War. Lots of eastern european puppet states.
The obvious danger for Russia is keeping these as puppets as the Soviets did have to deal with regular uprisings (Hungary '56, Cze '68 and arguably Poland '81) against Soviet rule. Direct annexation would be better, but might be harder to pull off.
ETA of course I might be wrong. If censorship is too blatant, it might provoke more letter-writers.
Clarke would undoubtedly have reduced the Blair majority in 2001 but could he have carried on after that defeat? It's clear the Conservative Party was changing during that period and Clarke's once mainstream Conservative views were now a minority especially on Europe. Perhaps he would have been challenged by Iain Duncan-Smith or William Hague - it's an interesting line.
As for whether David Miliband would have won in 2015 - I think that's a hard one to call. The Conservatives won their majority primarily on the back of the LD collapse while Labour's main losses were to the SNP. Could a David Miliband leadership have prevented any of that? It's hard to see how but he wouldn't have had to make much difference to stop Cameron winning a majority.
A minority Cameron Government - he's off the hook of a referendum on the EU as he doesn't have a parliamentary majority but would such semantics have cut any ice with his backbenchers - I suspect not.
Would be deliciously ironic if the party that finishes Boris off is the one where they were celebrating Cummings end.
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/JamesMayAutocar_crop.jpg
Some behaviours need calling out and stopping!
Some sources say they will be eternally 33 years of age. Their number is unclear. In the West, we often cite 72, but that’s just one interpretation. Other sources say 2 per person.
I'm going to do a thread header on this. The idea that 133k Covid deaths have been "with", and when people push the conspiratorial nonsense Andy has alluded to - by "with" meaning 'coincidentally' is proper nonsense of the highest order.
I'll do a thread header - but this 17k figure absolute roasters like David Kurten are banding about is very very very misleading
What if at 20.00 this evening he addresses the nation, surrounded by flags, reporting that we are on the brink of war with Russia. He puts us on an immediate war footing, making some startling announcement to demonstrate the gravity of our predicament, maybe reintroducing conscription. Really going to town on the severity of the situation.
He indicates his strength and resolve and if necessary his fearless use of the nuclear deterrent, contrasting himself with the weakness of Starmer, Biden, Germany, the EU and NATO.
He calls out his detractors as traitorous Russian shills. Safety assured, and a ten point poll lead by next weekend, particularly if Putin pulls the trigger in the meantime.
Imagine the opportunity too for PB Johnsonites to claim his foresight and statesmanship.
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/ba2-omicron-variant-is-worth-discussing
Caveat: the author evinces hints of anti-vaxxery, and wonders if Omicron Classic, the supposed parent of Omicron OMG, was itself engineered. Nonetheless he makes some good points. If Omicron OMG can keep reinfecting you, even if it is mild, it’s going to cause real problems. Imagine a country where 10% of the workforce is off sick at any one time
The huge surge in cases in Denmark - and now France? - is quite something
It's functionally impossible to keep track of how unsuitable a person he is to run even a church tombola let alone a country.
Golly
The attempted putsch has unleashed infighting between rival camps of Tory MPs, with whips also accused of heavy-handed attempts to intimidate the rebels with the threat of revealing allegations about their sex lives.
One MP claims it was hinted that he would be outed as homosexual, while another was reportedly warned that alleged sexual harassment would be revealed. A third was confronted with hotly denied claims of unusual sexual peccadillos with male prostitutes. One has threatened to release a recording of a whip’s threats.
My own position is that I accept that there are a significant number of excess deaths resulting from COVID and that, at certain points, exceptional measures including lockdowns have been necessary to reduce the spread of the virus to avoid the healthcare system collapsing. But the situation as a whole does not justify long term encroachments in to personal liberty, or to change the relationship between the state and individual.
Europe made a huge error in not reopening fully and letting the virus let rip in the summer, this is the result. Stupidly New Zealand is about the make the same error.
Also
"My old friend Christopher Bland, when chairman of the BBC, once described to me how he received an angry phone call from Johnson, denouncing the corporation’s “gross intrusion upon my personal life” for its coverage of one of his love affairs.
“We know plenty about your personal life that you would not like to read in the Spectator,” the then editor of the magazine told the BBC’s chairman, while demanding he order the broadcaster to lay off his own dalliances.
Bland told me he replied: “Boris, think about what you have just said. There is a word for it, and it is not a pretty one.”
He said Johnson blustered into retreat, but in my own files I have handwritten notes from our possible next prime minister, threatening dire consequences in print if I continued to criticise him."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/24/boris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain
As @Farooq observes downthread, Johnson has form for bloody everything
"But any hopes within No 10 that this provided evidence of the Chancellor’s loyalty were misplaced. Within hours Tricky Rishi was holding meetings with leading rebels, who set out their terms for backing him in any leadership contest."
If Rishi starts to get the reputation (?) for being slippery and not to be trusted, it;s potentially very damaging. It doesn't sound as though he convinced many of the Red Wall MPs he would follow through on more funding for the RW.
You know where to send it.
As all around him collapses to dust he stands straight and true.
That doesn't however explain the completely incompetent remain campaign that did nearly as much to lose the referendum as leave did to win it.
Johnson only has to buy himself time with rhetoric.
Boris is not so stupid as to go to war with Russia alone without the rest of NATO with him
No, don't say it, "both" is probably fair.
Isn't it a given in modern warfare that you must knock out the enemy's air force and defensive capability from above before committing troops on the ground? Otherwise an infantry advance is a massive gamble. Mustering an army on the border is one thing, but Putin would need to launch an air attack before deploying them. That's why Biden's "Small Incursion Theory" does not compute.
"Seventy two? You have the impression there was a committee involved there."
Not that I expect Boris to do either
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cece6b10-7ba0-11ec-846f-fcbd721f9c02?shareToken=8ecb2308ad246336ffffd2fbee38e97f https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1485214550748192770/photo/1
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-uk-will-stand-shoulder-to-shoulder-with-kyiv-but-extremely-unlikely-to-send-troops-deputy-pm-dominic-raab-says-12523321
So arguably the ultimate blame for Brexit and Boris lies with Labour Party members
Boris has completely screwed up the party for a generation, I suspect. The culture of bullying, nastiness, insouciance of the rules, arrogance, and incompetence will years to sort out, and I don't think voters are going to forgive the Tories for a long time. Eventually some future David Cameron may emerge and take the party through all the detoxification again, but it could be a long wait. And that's without even taking into account the multiple crises coming (NHS backlog, care for elderly crisis, cost of living, justice system backlogs, Brexit damage to the economy...). Some of those are admittedly not entirely the government's fault, but it will get the blame all the same.
Good on those Tory MPs (including, if the reports are true, our very own member for Newcastle under Lyme) who have grasped the nettle. Getting rid of Boris is the indispensable first step for improving things, both for the party and, more importantly, the country, but it will be only the first step.
The only recent exceptions 1992 but Major had a big policy difference with Thatcher over the poll tax and the 1970s when we changed government 3 times but then the economy was in chaos
I think it's probably time to be a bolder in what I state: next-to-no-one in Britain really cares about the Ukraine. Sorry, I know it's bad in theory but they don't. Just as they don't really care about Taiwan.
They will only care if we're stupid enough to get involved and British service personnel start returning in body bags. Viz. Afghanistan.
But the damage was already done five years earlier on Black Wednesday and the subsequent sleaze and in-fighting.
I think if you are going to cast shade on Sunak by virtue of his work history it’s only fair to make it clear if it’s something he has done, something in the culture of his employers and if legal or not.
I could be being very naive but I don’t really understand why, if there are skeletons in his closet, they haven’t been thrown out there either by Boris and outriders, rivals or by the guardian in a deep reporting exposé so think if someone is hinting at this then would only be fair to back it up and explain why you hint at dark issues or alternatively not hint at them unless they can be backed up?
If you are right then it’s important that people know this but if you aren’t then it’s also not right to cast shade.
*Nearly 2 weeks after the invasion
In a way the 2017 result was a poisoned chalice for Labour and it would have been better in hindsight if Theresa May had won a dozen more seats in 2017 and Corbyn had stood down while earning some credit for 20+ odd gains.
I also believe 2015 was unwinnable for Labour because of UKIP/SNP/Brexit etc although Yvette Cooper might have been a slightly better leader than Miliband if Ed Balls had lost in 2010.